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Market Talk- THE BOTTOM IS IN!? New highs for SOL and BTC incoming!?
Recorded: Aug. 28, 2025 Duration: 1:29:21Space Recording
Full Transcription
Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Oh Oh Oh, oh, oh the heavens rising high.
The world and the truth comes near. Oh Oh I'm sorry. I'm sorry. I'm sorry. I'm sorry. I'm sorry.
I'm sorry.
I'm sorry.
I'm sorry.
I'm sorry.
I'm sorry.
I'm sorry.
I'm sorry.
I'm sorry.
I'm sorry.
I'm sorry.
I'm sorry.
I'm sorry.
I'm sorry.
I'm sorry.
I'm sorry.
I'm sorry.
I'm sorry.
I'm sorry.
I'm sorry.
I'm sorry. I'm sorry. I'm sorry. I'm sorry. I'm sorry. Oh Oh, my God. I'm so glad you're here. I love you. E aí so Thank you. Guys, what is going on welcome back welcome back to the show
ah i am grateful for days like today a few days before labor day we have some pce data coming out tomorrow that's expected to come out cool solana usd and solana btc and
solana e have all made fresh local highs and guys we also have tom lee the giga chat himself
shoving in over 300 million into e this is uh is the start of the most exciting part of the cycle,
where in the next couple of weeks,
we're going to be seeing things like Others BTC,
and now more specifically, Others ETH,
which is a pair that I really don't see many people sharing here on X
that is about to be indicative
of what people call alt season all season is not canceled yes eth will still go into price discovery
yes your favorite altcoin has the potential i'm just gonna say that has the potential
for hitting new all-time highs.
And guys, welcome back to Market Talk, brought to you by BB.
I'm your host, Wabi.
And today, we're going to go ahead and yap.
I already sent Donnie the co-host invite.
And we're going to go ahead and cook for you guys.
Tomorrow, I will not be streaming. So this uh your weekly wrap-up for the
week so if you guys in the audience want to come up and talk some shop you guys are more than free
to do so uh just click the spaces tab and then uh in the bottom left just hit that request button
and uh i'll bring you right on up uh but one thing I will say, guys, one thing I will say is if you want to come up here these spaces is more of a conversation
and definitely not something like an interview show,
like the late night show with Jay Leno or something like that.
I want to motivate you guys to have a conversation with myself,
with Donnie and everybody else up here on the panel.
I also find it more interesting if these shows are more of a conversation rather than just questions back
and forth, back and forth. So if you guys want to actually like talk some shop, you're more than
free to do so. The space is recorded. I'm not sure how long the space is going to be, but I'm going
to give it probably like 45 minutes to an hour.
I'm sure you guys have heard me say this on spaces during previous summers going all the way back
to 2023. It's usually after Labor Day where volume starts to come back into the markets.
And something that's indicative of that is the S&P 500. The S&P 500 is in price discovery and hit 6,500 exactly as predicted at the lows at 4,800 with myself and with Donnie at the lows on April 7th or 8th of 2025 when we were up here with a bunch of gold bugs
screaming. They were screaming at us, telling us that the market is going to take some time
to recover. There's not going to be a melt-up. But ladies and gentlemen, a near 2,000-point rally on the S&P 500 with the quickest reversal in history,
the quickest reversal from a 25% drawdown back to all-time highs is the quickest recovery in history.
You had things like NVIDIA down over 50%, and it recovered back to all-time highs.
That is trillions being added into the market.
That is a melt-up.
Yes, we understand that a quote-unquote real melt-up is things going up like 5x in a month or two but given the uh rate of diminishing returns a 2x on something like
nvidia that was still trading at trillions in the april lows ladies and gentlemen that is a melt up
when you have something like hood do almost a 4x that is essentially a melt up so we have the melt up that's already been well
underway in the equity markets you have things like hood where you are starting to see um normies
talk about hood stock you see uh their their ceo and founder vlad appear on forbes magazines and
all that stuff so what is the next step right what is the next step and i would say it's probably
going to be tom lee now we talked about this during yesterday's show right I made a tweet on my personal profile discussing the fact that we now have
a new main character for the crypto market. It's no longer Michael Saylor. It's no longer CZ.
It is now somebody that has been integrated with TradFi for decades and has been a part of the
crypto market for the better half of
you know since bitcoin inception i think tom lee uh and his and his brother charlie lee were both mining btc in like 2010 2011. so you actually have btc whales that run funds with aum
in the tens of billions telling you hey there's there's no reason to panic. These are the
lows. So they're showing you the playbook. This is the playbook part two, as me and Donnie have
described. The playbook is unfolding again. The setup is insane. And the step by step,
is insane and the step-by-step incremental phases week by week are going to shock people
they're going to shock people okay so the next step would be something like a tom lee
appearing on on on forbes magazine and and that's just deal. Whether people like the deal or not,
we have a main character.
He knows things about TradFi.
And I even think he has his daughter working in Bloomberg.
So he has secretly infiltrated TradFi news channels
to better shill ETH directly for these big funds that always go on CNBC, Bloomberg,
and stuff like that.
So honestly, guys, we haven't seen this setup since Mike Novogratz started talking about
ETH at like $3, $4 in 2016.
And we all know how that played out. So I think the next level for ETH is likely being retail,
being priced out of ETH.
And then you'll probably see on-chain doing quite well.
And there was an interesting metric that was described here
on these spaces when Chill was up here,
and Donnie was up here as well
with ragsy and a few other people check out that replay by the way guys these spaces have been
on fire lately and it showcased the amount of uh traders on chain but the highlight of yesterday
was uh people trading on chain on solana and truthfully and I'll post a chart later on in the space again
for those that missed out on yesterday's space, but it looks like when Bitcoin hit $20,000 and
went through that bear market, where it went down to $6,000, did nothing for a few months,
and then capitulated down to $3,000. And I was active in the market at that time.
And the narrative at the bottom at $3 at 3000 for Bitcoin was Bitcoin was a failed
experiment. It's no longer a method of monetary transaction. It's not going to be used for cash.
It's definitely not going to be used for a store of value. It failed. And what happened? You had
the COVID cycle occur. You had the COVID cycle and the narrative was a hedge against inflation.
And now what's the narrative?
Digital gold.
And you translate that over to Solana.
At first, it was, all right, what is Solana?
Is it just a chain to create meme coins?
And I would say it's tokenized attention.
And you also now have the narrative of digitalizing, tokenizing assets, tokenizing Tradify.
And if you look fundamentally under the hood, you have things like Securitize,
which is backed by BlackRock and all those other people, and they're building it on Solana.
Solana TVL and DeFi is now in price discovery for the first time in a very long time.
You now have Solana TVL at all-time highs.
Stablecoin issuance is at all-time highs on Solana.
So you have to ask yourself what exactly is is is about to happen uh to solana
so with that being said guys i'm gonna go ahead and uh start the space with donnie if anyone wants
to come up um and talk i think max is supposed to come on as well as uh the rest of the team but
i'm guessing that's not going to be happening today but uh if you guys
want to come up feel free to hit that request button and uh i'll uh bring you up towards the
tail end of the conversation but before that if you guys can go ahead and show some love
to the space best way you guys can do that is by clicking the spaces tab. You guys already know what to do after that.
You see all of the profile pictures on the top row.
You'll see a little link that says x.com slash I slash spaces.
Go on ahead and hit that like button with as much force as possible.
If you're excited for the weekly wrap-up, smash up that like button.
If you're excited for Others BTC to have the most vicious rally not seen since Q4 of 2023,
where Others BTC rallied nearly 100%, hit up that repost button. And just to give you guys a, not a visual example,
but I'm going to try to say this as best as possible through my voice, but Others BTC has not even rallied 25%. It has not even rallied over 25%.
And what has happened around that time over these last few weeks since Others BTC had bottomed?
This BTC had bottomed.
One, Useless rallied 100x.
Tokubu rallied from 0 to 80 mil.
Bucky rallied from 0 to 50 mil in a week.
And again, just to put this into perspective,
around this time last year when liquidity conditions
were more or less kind of the same, right?
You did not have your future runners for the rest of Q3 and Q4
hit 50 mil in their wave one.
Both FWOG and a few others first topped out at 40 mil,
retraced a lot harder, and then sent to hundreds of millions.
And that was also while rates were a bit higher than how they are right
now. So you have to ask yourself, what happens to on-chain once rates come down? And most
importantly, the one thing that I've been waiting for is the ending of quantitative tightening,
which is essentially the Fed taking some stuff off of their balance sheet.
And I just really don't think that they're going to get in Trump's way and in Scott Bessent's way
the real Federal Reserve with their target of 6% to 7% GDP. And by the way, guys, there was some insane news that came out today where the Trump cabinet is now going to have GDP on the blockchain.
I'm not sure what chain, but they're going to have it.
And they're going to have it accessible via the blockchain.
And that's a narrative, too, brother.
That's a narrative, too. And what did Scott Bessette say at the first top of the year in February when he when him and Trump said that, all right, the market's going to cool off?
They both said, give it six to nine months and you will begin to see the first signs of Trump's new economic boom.
economic boom and now look here we are s&p 500 in price discovery and let me see where the iwm is
at guys i have not looked at that over the last uh few days so i wish there was a way where I can actually stream during these spaces. But the IWM, ladies and gentlemen,
has also hit a fresh local high.
And we are about eight points away
from retesting the election,
well, post-election highs.
And we all know what happened after that, right?
After late Novembermber ai took that
massive leg up on chain was insane so there's all there's another saying that i've been saying here
on bb for almost three years now which is uh history doesn't repeat itself but it often rhymes
but i got donnie up here and once again guys feel free to request and I'll bring you all up.
Should be at the bottom left.
So, Donnie, what's going on, bro?
BTC creeped up to about 113.
A little bit of a pullback here on the lower timeframes.
But, you know, we've got Soul leading, man.
Soul BTC making another fresh local high, man.
We called it here on the show exactly as predicted.
What is going on, man?
The weekly wrap-up is going to be insane,
and I'm pretty sure this space is going to age well,
as the others have, man.
So what's going on, brother?
Great to have you up.
It's going to be an insane cook session.
And by the way guys
uh donnie did put this in the comments if you guys have any questions and you guys don't want
to come up or anything like that just put it in the comment section and uh we'll uh we'll do that
for you guys with donnie off to you man hey bro cheers for that and thanks for asking the space
um yeah yesterday we had and still have a pretty good setup on BTC.
However, you didn't really have an impulsive move above that key level of $113k.
You kind of just rolled over at that, just above that wick high.
And you haven't actually tapped into the liquidity that was resting above there to basically, you know, cascade, let's say from about 114.2 ish all the way up to about 120k.
It's that kind of a clean liquidity trail with the context of what we just had can make
for a very sharp reversal to get to at least 120k.
But I think we have the context to go far beyond that.
But yeah, we rolled over at the 113k. think we have the context to go far beyond that um but yeah we
rolled over at the 113k so just have to be a bit more patient um the current setup you've got little
bits of demand below at around 111.7k and 110.2 ish we'll see if those hold if you get a very sharp
impulsive bounce from either one of those levels very like convincingly
above 113k then i think that's going to give signal that you know this whole uh bottoming
zone is finally complete right we were talking about how it was kind of all the liquidation uh
cascade kind of like an exploit to the downside we had had massive accounts dumping huge amounts of BTC to basically trigger
this cascade. So if you start clearing these key levels with impulsive price action, then it's just
telling you that the job is complete down there, right from the market makers or whoever,
and they're going to send this thing higher. And obviously, because you have this liquidity trail
all the way up to 120k, it makes for a very easy reversal uh just by
pushing price just a little bit above these key levels and then the momentum from there can pick
up on its own as people kind of keep bidding the chart so yeah 111.7 and 110.2 we'll see if those
levels hold and see what sort of reaction we get down there but if not you can go all the way back
to that wick low of 108.6 and deviate it and form just a wider sort of accumulation down there, continue to take those
lows out until the job is done, right? I can't predict when the job will be done. All I can
basically play is around the chart. And if I see the correct moves as an impulsive price action
above these key points, then I'll start to have signal of,
okay, the bottom actually might be in. And I really think if you get above where that big
exploit happened at around 115, if you get above that convincingly, then I think it's done. I think
the bottom's done and we can move on to where I think we're going, which I think it's a new all
time high because of all the context we've discussed endlessly on these spaces
for weeks and months. But just to keep it like super simple, I'll just share the chart that I
shared this morning. And like, obviously this looks very, even to me, if you guys just jump on
this chart, even to me, this chart looks almost impossible to pull this move. But it's not because of the technical setup that you have
and all of the context that we've had to this point. We've been selling off since the highs,
basically because of the uncertainty around what the Fed is going to do. And we've basically come
to the conclusion that they're going to be choosing funding the government cutting rates over the
inflation side of the picture, which is just even more massively inflationary in the already
inflationary setup that Trump admin is running. So we are having a selling off due to that.
Basically pricing in that move to the downside before the actual rate cuts do come into play, which is what
I think. But also, if you look at this chart, we've really been following gold, which is just
a makeup of global financial conditions since the bottom. Very closely, to be fair, way,
way closer in tandem than looking at an M2 chart, for example, even telegraphed all of these local
pullbacks, specifically this sharp one, quite nicely.
And yeah, this is pointing to a much higher high.
I don't know and I don't think it'll be as explosive as gold is telegraphing there.
It might take some more weeks to get to those levels that it's pointing at,
or it might be just as fast.
I don't know.
I just know that typically when you have these big reversals with a very clean technical setup,
again, this is just as clean as the 74k lows in terms of a technical setup,
just on a much lower timeframe. So that's why it can happen this aggressively. And you saw the
move off the 74k lows. Nobody, nobody was thinking that it was going to be
that much of a clean reversal with no pullbacks, right?
Everybody was drawing lines to the downside
at every single little consolidation.
You had fake distributions on the chart the entire way up
and they all got basically cancelled
from just impulsive price action to the upside.
So you can't rule it out.
It's good to keep it there as context
and then just basically see what happens on the chart
and wait for these key levels to get crossed.
And then as price goes higher,
it kind of validates that,
okay, we did actually piece together the puzzle
and it's playing out.
So we'll see.
To me, it makes sense to rally into FOMC
rather than wait until FOMC for a bottom,
but it could be either one purely because I think the rate cuts are bullish for risk assets.
I think it's massive upwards pressure on BTC gold and stocks and massive downwards pressure on the
dollar. So that's why I'm thinking that because we've already
dipped for like 15 days, I really think we're just going to run straight into that FOMC and
particularly put in a much more pronounced higher high, just like this BTC gold overlay is projecting.
And then I think on the actual FOMC is where you get the pullback that it's projecting.
So if you're rallying into that,
sentiment's going to be like,
oh my God, Fed's going to cut,
alts are going to go ballistic, all this stuff.
You get a little bit of a pullback there.
And then in between that range,
I think every time BTC bounces,
you're going to have alts really catch up.
Why do I think that?
Well, it's because you've got ETH BTC,
Sol BTC, others BTC,
every single altcoin chart is headed in the right direction.
And you've seen on a micro level, on lower timeframes with little Bitcoin bounces, ETH has been going ballistic.
And now SOL is starting to show signs of strength with every local Bitcoin bounce. So a higher
timeframe version of that in deeper price discovery, I think that's a pretty good environment to have
an alt season. We've seen every other cycle, every time Bitcoin doubles the prior cycle all-time high.
So from the last cycle, 69k high, it'll be 138k for us this time. You've seen others BTC really
start to pick up the pace. So we're basically at that point right now. And others BTC chart,
which we've shared, is looking like it wants to reclaim that range low and have a pretty big
impulse to the upside so
just have to play this last pivot point out i've been like jokingly saying in my discord that this is the final shakeout for real because i really do think it is uh in terms of actually
having some fun in the old coin market right you're gonna get constant shakeouts uh throughout
the entire uh bull run that's just how a bull market works.
But I think this one is a very crucial pivot point.
If it plays out correctly, then I feel like everything else
will just unfold without question.
So yeah, we'll see how it all plays out.
But yeah, I wouldn't be too fearful
if you start deviating like the 108.7K low.
I think it's more probable than not that you actually just
deviate that and start to form an accumulation down there before reversing. But we'll see
because if you're looking at the heat maps, there is still that massive cluster around
106.7. But I think if you do go that low, that wick that cleans all of that up likely
gets bought back very aggressively.
And it doesn't last very long.
It can last like, I don't know, maybe for like a 30 minute candle
or 15 minute candle or something like that.
And you'll be all the way back up to like 109 quickly.
So it's not really like you're spending time down there
and it's super scary and all that.
But we'll see, right?
I think either scenario isn't really that bad and it all leads
to the same sort of destination in the end. And yeah, the technical setup is just screaming that
it's there for a very sharp reversal, at least $221K. But again, we have the context to go higher
than that with the bearishness around the dollar, which is basically just bullish for more global liquidity. And then, yeah, I think the subsequent cuts that come from this FOMC, especially if they
project some at the rate projections just the day before, they actually do the live
talk and stuff.
If that's showing like three cuts, I just think you're going to have a massive old coin
wave.
And you're seeing IWM pretty much sniff that out.
I saw somebody, I think it was actually Koosh when he came on the space with us.
He was talking about IWM over SPX.
You can basically think of this as like ETH BTC for the stock market.
This is also looking super nice for a reversal.
And you're seeing IWM stay very relatively strong throughout
any of these little market pullbacks. It just keeps going higher and you're basically at the
point on the chart where it's just liquidity above you to squeeze to a new all-time high.
So I think that's another tailwind for the old coin market. Yeah, I really wouldn't overthink
in between now and FOMC too much regardless of, regardless of how it plays out. And yeah,
I think you finish the year off really strong across the board. But in terms of
the stock market right now, I was kind of just thinking about it because we front ran this dip.
We've literally been downtrending for 15 days. That's a lot of days in the crypto market to be
downtrending while the stock market continuously goes higher. I think that you are going to get a pullback on the FOMC date.
If you don't pull back from now in between, then you're definitely going to get one there,
I think, in the stock market. It's not going to last very long. I don't think it's going to be
that brutal either. Maybe it lasts like a couple of weeks or three weeks or something like that.
But I'm also expecting the dollar
to have a very significant drop
when they do hammer home those rate cuts
and whatever they say around that meeting
because you already saw a downtick in
DXY as soon as
Jerome Powell spoke at the Jackson Hole
meeting and he had a little
bit of a recovery bump but now you've retraced the whole move
again. I just think this chart is destined
to go to the low 90s this year and And basically, Jerome's going to send it there
when he speaks, which means that if you're going to have a correction in the stock market at the
same time, it's likely that that correction is going to be dampened because the dollar is dropping
and it skews the USD charts, right? So I'm not expecting like a massive pullback
on the US stock market.
Like the prior all-time highs around 6.150-ish.
I don't even think you get close to that.
I think you just go to like 6.3,
maybe 6.2 and a half
if I'm expecting and correct on the dollar dropping there.
And you're also seeing gold start to creep back up,
which we've been kind of saying they're inversely correlated
because gold is just a makeup of global financial conditions.
And the main two components of that is basically the DXY and yields.
And even the 10-year yield has been looking super weak at the moment.
Two-year yields are obviously nuking on the short end.
But DXY, again, it's destined to go lower.
It's kind of drooping lower now.
If it does go to those low 90s, you will see another rally in gold. And that's great because
we know that Bitcoin follows gold by a lag of a few months. So we're still yet to price in
what I've shared on the nest, whether it actually looks exactly like that or not.
I don't think it'll look exactly like that. It'll have its own shape. And you see how on that actual overlay, you see that gold put in that
like blow off top sort of high and then range and put in lower highs following that. In that second
high that gold is projecting in the overlay, you could have a much higher high on Bitcoin's price.
My price range is around 138 to 182.
It's hard to imagine right now because when sentiment is bearish,
you can't really look past it.
But if you've seen every other pivot point,
it's super bearish at the lows.
And when price reverses to aid that price direction,
you get just a flurry of bullish catalysts.
So we don't know what's lurking around the corner.
There's always something
like you'll see when price is pumping, there'll be something to just keep pushing it higher and
higher. And I think you could put in a higher high instead of that lower high that gold is
projecting, right? And not a distributive higher high, like a full on second leg higher. So it
just depends. But yeah, good, good projections to kind of take note of and just back to that
DXY thing going lower if
gold is going to have another rally which really
does look like it to me
that just means that we're going to follow into
2026 finish off this
range after putting
in a higher high and then go
for another leg and that's where
I would expect
if we are coming to a liquidity cycle high after the
next DXY downtick or severe downtrend from the high 90s to the low 90s, potentially even lower
than 90, I don't know. If that is starting to be the exhaustion of the cycle in terms of liquidity, then you're probably going to see some sort of topping structure on gold and also an indication on the BTC versus gold chart that there is rotations coming out of gold, which is basically coming to its cyclical top into higher risk assets like BTC.
higher risk assets like BTC. So all of those signals are yet to flash, but it's just good to
kind of keep it in front of you and project it to kind of know what's coming. Because if that does
happen and gold rallies to like 4k, 4.2, 3.8, I don't know, it doesn't really matter. Even if it
like topped here and you got the rotation, BTC would go ballistic. Because, you know, gold is
like 10 times bigger in market cap. Any sort of rotation from there would lead to a huge
rally. And we did actually see a slight rotation during the Q4 rally in crypto where gold had a
correction about 9%, 9.2, ranged for a bit, and BTC subsequently rallied 60% from a 9k correction on gold and a range. So imagine a 4k gold with an actual liquidity cycle
high rotating down the risk curve while we have this environment open. It's likely you get a
monstrous BTC rally well above 200k. So let's see how it all unfolds. But it's looking good to me, man. I'm also noticing like a ton of hate
and negativity and comments and frustration.
And every time that's happened,
it's been within days of a reversal.
So I think the technical setup is there for a super sharp one.
But yeah, it's probably somewhere in between now and the FOMC.
I'm leaning more towards like this week
or maybe at the latest next week
rather than all the way until FOMC. I'm leaning more towards this week or maybe at the latest next week rather than all the way until FOMC.
Man, you know, when we talk about
that IWM pair that Koosh talked about,
I would go as far as to say, Donnie,
that that's basically what Soul BTC is doing.
And I put something up on the Nest,
a nice meme for you guys.
When Soul BTC makes an all- high while on chain goes ballistic for you.
See 20, 30 X moves like we saw in Q4 and Donnie,
I'd say that's a really real thing, man. Um,
what are you thinking about soul here?
It seems like it's finally Solana's turn to outperform after months of underperformance.
And I would even go as far as to say that like Sol BTC and Sol ETH are probably bottomed out for a long time.
And if we have all these treasury companies about to pile in and this whole tokenization of stocks and assets are going to be a real thing.
And Sol has a massive influx of stablecoin issuance.
The setup for Sol to actually go into price discovery this year is a real, real, real thing.
And I'll say this again, ladies and gentlemen, as I said it back in early July when I put that pinned tweet on my personal profile, I think ETH BTC will go into price discovery for the first time in eight years.
And look, you've got people saying that meme coins are going to tens of billions.
And if that's going to be the case, what does that say for the underlying L1?
You really have to ask yourself this.
And if Scott Bessette, I'm paying attention to Scott Bessette.
I'm not paying attention to the kid analysts, as Uncle Mike likes to say, kid analysts.
I'm not paying attention to those charts.
attention to those charts. I'm paying attention to what Scott Bessent is saying. And he's gone
I'm paying attention to what Scott Bessette is saying.
on record to say that his projection for the stablecoin market cap is north of $2 to $3 trillion.
And this is the same guy who, by the way, told you the top of the market, gave you the top of
the VIX and the bottom of the market.
You remember that, Donnie?
When you first came on Twitch, we played that video for the audience.
It was insane.
It is the first time in history where you have people from the Fed actually give you market alpha.
Jerome has never given market alpha.
Jerome has never given market alpha.
All he's said over the last few years is we're going to be data dependent.
And then he fixes his glasses.
And then he says we'll keep a close watch on the labor market.
And then he fixes his tie.
And he says the same thing over and over again.
And he's kind of on autopilot.
But Chad Bessent, he's giving you the playbook.
Literally step by step.
You remember, Donnie, during that pullback that ETH BTC had like last month.
And then Scott Bessent tweeted out something about the stablecoin market cap.
And that marked the local bottom for ETH BTC.
It's honestly insane. And it's like what we've been talking
about on these spaces that they're kind of like prepping for the true doomer scenario,
which isn't a meltdown. It's actually a melt up. The true doomer scenario is a melt-up on risk assets, so vicious and so lengthy, just like the 90s, that it prices out the consumer while the dollar appreciates.
That is the true doomer scenario.
That is the true doomer scenario. That is the true doomer scenario, man.
Yeah, I agree. I was thinking about this before because I remember last cycle when I started kind of heavily trading crypto.
And you get into the space and you start telling people about crypto and like, oh, I'm investing in crypto and all this kind of stuff.
and you start telling people about crypto and like,
oh, I'm investing in crypto and all this kind of stuff.
And during that mania, as your friends start piling in later and later,
you're almost like worried they're going to outperform you
because you're the crypto guy now, right?
You bought them in and like you're starting to sell,
but you're like, man, what if this keeps going up
and they hit something stupid and they just outperform me?
I feel like we're going to have something similar this time, purely because the data
is kind of suggesting we go higher for longer.
But I'm just imagining all of the traders or people that have been in crypto trying
to make money the last three years, right?
They're super frustrated.
They have tons of PTSD and all this kind of stuff.
They really just want to make some Xs, some money, some multiples and get out.
And the playbook that I can see is higher for longer, right?
So I'm picturing this demographic of people selling, basically, and trying to resist staying
out of this market while all their friends come in, right?
When this thing is actually marketed everywhere and it's just going up only and everything's
doing well, everyone's making money.
They're coming in just recklessly trading, right?
You're the smart guy. You're the technical analyst. They're coming in recklessly
throwing money and outperforming you and you're sitting on the sidelines. It's going to be super
hard to stay on the sidelines with that sort of environment. And I just think that's destined to
happen. A lot of people are calling for a cycle top this year, but nothing is really pointing towards that.
A true liquidity cycle top as the United States is going into the expansionary phase of monetary policy,
along with a highly inflationary setup from the Trump admin as well.
I just can't see it, right?
It's going to be very hard to stay out of the market if you see BTC going above 200k,
ETH 10, 15 or higher, meme coins pulling thousands of Xs. And again, your friends coming in here with a few thousand bucks, making hundreds of thousands, making you look dumb.
It's going to be super hard.
And no one can picture that environment right now, maybe because they haven't been in prior cycles of what a mania feels like.
But I think that's where we're headed.
And people say,
like, who's going to buy our bags? The people who are here are going to be buying everybody's bags
because they're going to be buying at higher prices, because it's going to be hard to resist
that sort of environment. It won't feel like you're coming down, especially at those higher
numbers. And there's just so much still to happen, even on the BTC adoption side,
There's just so much still to happen, even on the BTC adoption side, that I just can't
see the timeline finishing in the next few months or this year, to be fair.
But of course, we'll still play all the data, all of the charts.
If you see clear signs of you need to get out, then you get out.
It's as simple as that.
But it's also good to be aware of the other side, which I would say majority of the market
is not pricing in.
They're not even pricing in the fact that the Trump admin wants to get rates down 3%,
which they don't even need to get them down 3% for this market to go absolutely haywire.
1% down, which is probably more likely than not going to happen,
will explode this market higher because they're just throwing fuel into the fire of the inflation playbook.
The playbook, man.
It is unfolding.
And it will be real.
Really real. Insanely real.
Incredibly real, man.
And I shared
a chart because you mentioned it earlier. It just came
back to my mind.
Skip all the other charts and just go
to... I shared it in the nest. Skip the Bucky chart. Skip all the other charts and just go to, I shared it in the nest, skip
the Bucky chart, skip Sol BTC, or you can take a quick glance at Sol BTC and go just
to Sol over ETH. You can see, other than the Trump coin mega rally that Sol had to jump
to $300 from massive FOMO, oh my god, the president is launching a meme coin on Sol.
from like massive FOMO.
Oh my God, the president is launching a meme coin on Seoul.
It's the best use case in the world.
$300 leverage wrong, whatever.
Other than that, it's kind of kept up with ETH
on the chart pretty similarly.
It did have that deviation above that market structure
that is sitting around like 210.
Like I said, it was like a crazy meme coin
sort of speculation event right there. And ETH didn't
get above 4k. We know that ETH more likely than not was manipulated to stay below 4k for accumulation
purposes. And yeah, Solcoin had that deviation to about 300. And now it's kind of re-synced back
to its normal sort of place in the market, which is behind the second biggest token in crypto, which is ETH.
And you can see ETH finally put in a fresh all-time high.
And Sol is yet to get above that market structure around 210-ish if you just were to cut out that whole deviation to 300.
And I think it's really going to catch up now. And Sol BTC is giving you that signal
that if BTC does actually move higher here,
which I think is basically imminent at this point
to at least 120K,
Sol is going to reverse straight back to that 300
pretty quickly.
That's a 40% pump from that market structure high
on the Sol USD chart,
which is a huge rally.
I think that's going to spark a massive on-chain
event on Seoul. And obviously
we've been seeing every time Seoul
does put in these moves, what happens
to that
entire chain, meme coins, whatever.
They go ballistic, man.
If this isn't a recipe for
heading into alt season, especially if
BTC puts in a very pronounced higher high, then I don't know what is, right?
You've got absolutely every single chart in the right direction.
The last button to press is just get Bitcoin over 130, in my view.
And I've posted the altcoin triggers in late May.
And the last one to be ticked off is literally 130k BTC everything else
is on track so let's see if we get I think it's very likely that we do and then yeah we get to
enjoy the market and specifically Seoul I think the amount of opportunity that Seoul has had this
cycle is ridiculous you've had coins pulling billions of market cap from zero with
the market environment nowhere near as good as it's about to shape up again we
haven't had these conditions since the last cycle and the last cycle the
absolute pico top of it was 69 K BTC which if we're gonna be two times bigger
than that with the correct charts to fuel the old coin market like Bitcoin
dominance if btc
sold btc others btc everything headed in the right direction i think you could expect some crazy
fireworks um in the altcoin market it just makes sense turning sense into bucks bro facts turning
sense into bucks getting our golf clubs learning how to golf
from tiger woods bro being so good on chain that they call you tiger in the woods but um
something else i know luke has mentioned this before on spaces is uh what is it the ism numbers
when they when they expand above uh 50 that's when true macro expansion happens and
that's the thing with like as uncle mike says it these kid analysts that are still trying to go on
the four-year cycle and you look at things like others btc you look at things like iwm does iwm
even look like it's topped it looks like it it's about to go into actual price discovery after a near five-year suppression.
After a multi-year, nearly half a decade range.
ARK Invest confirming bull market structure for the first time in almost five years, ladies and gentlemen.
In almost five years.
And they want to be short near the breakout because the halving was last April.
What?
It's insane.
It's honestly insane.
And, I mean, we'll just have to let everything play out, man.
And it's happening slowly and then all at once.
And what you were saying, Donnie, about the opportunities on Seoul,
people forget Peanut the Squirrel.
People forget Chill Guy.
People forget Goat.
Those things reached billions within weeks.
Within weeks.
Yeah.
It was insane.
Yeah, and the environment ahead is way greater
than that. So, obviously, that means
the opportunities are going to be even greater.
And even the coins that exist right
now that have shown, you know,
decent strength, pulled good metrics,
all that kind of stuff, they've been,
some have been consolidating for many, many
months. They're going to do extremely
well in that environment. It's just literally
math. And you can't see it right now because, like, sentiment will be sour and you're like, ah, is this chart ever going to do extremely well in that environment it's just literally math and you can't
see it right now because like sentiment will be sour and you're like ah is this chart ever going
to reverse you get one green candle uh while seeing the broader market unfold and then from
there the momentum just kicks in every single time it's the same but back to the ism thing that you
just said let's take the uh counter view of what happened with ISM recently, right?
The ISM had a pretty big downtick.
We thought, well, we wanted it to get above 50 and boom, they had a downtick to about
42-ish, right?
So that verified that the economy is slowing, right?
So the Fed now wants to cut rates.
Well, if we do have ISM trending above 50 to finish off the year,
and the Fed is going to cut into that, right?
They're cutting into ISM verifying that the economy is expanding again.
Like that is literally the dream combo that you can have for risk assets,
specifically high risk assets.
So IWM and crypto and altcoins uh to just go vertical basically
so that'll be something to really pay attention to if you if we start seeing ism upticks and the
fed is still projected to continue to cut plus then um the trump admin wants to uh you know
basically get their way in the fed and they're trying to you know force a regime shift over time
and cut rates even further down in 2026 while you've got ism boosting past 50 bro people are just not positioned for
that whatsoever they're not even it's not even in their mental framework that that could be coming
and that's as bullish as it gets we got luke up here he had his hand up then i'll pass it a bro
amigo and we'll get down to the
questions luke what's going on man welcome what's up guys um yeah on donnie's point uh
it's just you're seeing the miners break out now and arc and all these charts are exactly the same
like i i don't know even if you look at Bitcoin gold if you look at
total two or the total crypto charts they're all the same thing they're like
these multi-year wedge patterns that are the miners are breaking out now and it's
it's what I said on the last base we did just go look back at the SMP over the last 40 years when you correct 20 to 30 percent
regain the highs just go look and see how long it runs for it's it's like a one year to
two year thing you know so I yeah I think as long as I keep listening to these podcasts and stuff too, and everyone's super skeptical and something Tom Lee said today too.
He's like, all my clients are very, very skeptical.
Like all his older clients don't believe the rally and he's just getting tons of
hate. Exactly what Donnie said too.
So these things top when everyone gets bullish and that, that's just
not the case right now. Tom Lee is the KOL of the century. He is the top ETH KOL to ever exist.
Dude, he's bullposting more about our industry than, than Vitalik or anyone else or anyone else man um you gotta
love tom lee man you gotta love it and and luke i would agree with you and another interesting
metric is that whenever the fed starts cutting rates right and then they stop for a couple of
months it's usually indicative of a broader rally that's incoming markets do not top
with rate cuts or even no i mean the elephant in the room which is the end of quantitative
tightening that's like yeah unless you think it's either you're you think we're going into recession
and if you don't think that then we're we're about to bust go up we're we're about to bust, go up.
We're about to accelerate.
So, yeah, I mean, I don't know.
We could be totally wrong, but I think people, I think we're about to go in. Oh, one other thing is just go overlay the ISM, go invert the DXY, and just look at the all-time chart of Bitcoin and tell me that if you think the cycle ends in three months, then this is the outlier.
Because we have not had a cycle top in Bitcoin since it's been around with the ISM under 55.
with the ISM under 55.
So maybe I'm missing something here,
but if you think it ends in a couple months,
then this is the outlier.
So just, yeah, just go look at it in a chart.
Maybe I'm missing something, but I don't think I am.
Real, man.
Bermigo, what's up, man? Welcome welcome back i haven't seen you in a minute
what's up wabi man i how you doing um i'm doing good yeah so i uh
to to be that guy i'm uh i'm a little bit on the on the fence still about this situation.
I mean, I think we're going higher ultimately,
but in the more foreseeable short term,
I just think, you know, if you look at the weekly MACD,
if you look at there's some mid-time frame bearish divergences,
though we may have just moved down to 110, 111. It's very, very arguable that we've already fulfilled
what that signal was.
So yeah, I just wanted to open that for discussion,
see what your guys' thoughts are,
if you put on the weekly chart, and know does that macd concern you at all or what are your thoughts there
man i'll actually uh open it up right now man uh so the weekly on bitcoin with the macd you said
give me a sec.
Yeah, I see what you mean.
You're talking about, like, that little lower high that we made on the MACD.
I'm not worried about it, to be frank.
I would even go as far as to say, like, I guess, I guess, like, the last Super Bowl take would be something similar that happened last cycle,
where, like, after we hit 64K, we distributed for a bit while all coins sent for like two months that would be it um but you'll see on the macd we
also had a little bit of a pullback in june so it could just be like a higher low. But I will say on the weekly, if we do surpass those levels that we did in December, then I would be concerned.
But for now, I'm not really like, I'm not really stressed right now at all.
and you'll see like um even uh even as we were down trending on the macd um from like
those lows in august where we hit 48k by the time the macd confirmed the bottom
bitcoin was like damn near 65k already so yeah macd i would i would need some more time man to be honest i feel like
just the short-term stuff especially going into the next couple like two one two months
seasonally like even if there was weakness it i mean it just doesn't matter. Like, I feel like the trend is intact.
Like, we could go down to 98 and you zoom out on the chart.
It's just so bullish.
Like, yeah.
I feel like anything short-term, you kind of just have to look through
and just look at the bigger picture.
The macro view is setting up crazy.
I don't know.
So some questions.
The first one is, are memes dead?
What's expected for Q4?
I don't think memes are dead.
At least not on Solana.
Because Solana has had a reputation for the entire cycle of tokenizing attention.
And the tension has largely been memes and AI.
So I wouldn't even call it memes.
I think I'd just call it like all coins.
So what do you think, Donnie, man?
What are your thoughts on meme coins and all that stuff
uh for q4 no they're definitely not dead um you saw like glimpses of how meme coins will respond
in good conditions soon as we cross the key level uh coming out of the 74k bottom which was 99.5k
the moment you ticked above that uh you had coins 15x off the lows.
They're literally just vehicles and pockets of liquidity to trade and make money. So the ones that exist that still post, they're still trying to build whatever they're building,
whether it's just marketing things or whatever, they will come back.
Like liquidity will just find a bottom chart after rotating from a top chart into that
and send it higher and people pile in on green candles. It's just crypto is very
momentum based like that. So everything will rally, especially if you've got conditions you
haven't had in three plus years unfolding.
I've always said everything will come back because
you can't have BTC, ETH,
sold in deep price discovery and rotations coming out of those coins into their own chains.
So ETH, literally people flicking ETH into Pepe, let's say.
That will eventually find itself into the biggest scum coin you can think of.
Eventually.
Until the entire or every single chart is basically exhausted.
It's happened many times before.
It's happened every cycle.
It's happened on a micro level
this cycle. It'll always happen.
Unless the coins are outright
dead, dead, which there's
very few of those and they're basically forgotten
about. But actual names that
had stuck around at least for a bit, I think
they'll all come back in some respect.
And of course, some will do better than
others, but yeah. But also,
back to the MACD thing.
I don't even use MACD.
I was just kind of checking it out on the weekly timeframe.
Yeah, there's been plenty of points where you put in,
I guess, a little bit of green momentum,
and then it ticks red a little bit,
and then instantly override it again.
I don't think MACD is a large component of the entire puzzle as to where Bitcoin is going.
There's a lot more data that's heavier weighting in my analysis than MACD.
I don't even use RSI or anything like that.
So I wouldn't be too worried just about MACD.
It can literally get overrode by literally a series of green candles right now.
And the liquidity trail that I keep talking about above 114.9,
which was the origin of that move to the downside,
which caused that massive liquidation cascade.
If you get above that with any sort of convincing strength,
you will teleport to 121.
That's going to override your MACD straightaway.
Yeah, I see there's another question as well
talking about how we think institutional adoption of Bitcoin
is going to affect cycle or future cycles.
I would just say probably no more crazy 70% drawdowns, I would say say i think it's as simple as that for bitcoin maybe
like 55 60 um and that's just because like if you look at nvidia nvidia corrected 50 so i can't btc
right but as far as like 70 plus percent, I don't think so, man.
I don't think so at all.
And I also think like the rate of recovery that you've seen with TradFi,
it's like you're seeing TradFi act more like crypto at this point.
Like you look at things like Hood and Palantir, they're up 10x in the last 12 months.
Those are like altcoin kind of gains.
So if anything, I think crypto has influenced TradFi more than we'd like to think and not the other way around.
What do you think, Donnie, as far as corrections with institutional adoption and all that stuff?
Yeah, I think if you're going to have a 70% drawdown, it's going to come from a much higher number.
I think there'll be a lot of demand at levels on the chart right now.
For example, even if you just take the prior BlackRock accumulation range, which lasted 200 plus days,
I think that level on the chart would be heavily bought up
if you were to touch that zone,
which is literally 74K to 49K.
And that's from the Pico top right now
to that absolute lowest point of 49K is 60%,
which I just can't even see that happening right now
with everything that we've got ahead.
I think you'd have to go much higher to get a 70% drawdown. And that would just basically mean,
let's say 250, 300k plus, and you pull back, let's say 70% from there, you would still be
around about 100k, I think. Yeah, you'd be around 90k. So yeah, I think in a bear market, you're going to have a lot of these institutions,
countries, whatever, sovereigns, whoever gets involved, just absorbing a lot of sell
pressure. There'll be supply being unlocked from, let's say, Bitcoin OGs selling
very inflated Bitcoin, but someone's going to scoop that up for sure.
And we have one more question asking
do we think Trump coin is dead?
I would not.
Yeah, I don't even know.
It's tricky because obviously Trump is an insane KOL, let's say.
He can definitely repump this chart with just a few things, but who knows?
The chart doesn't look that bad, to be honest, for a reversal, if there was some sort of capitalist brewing.
Who knows? I actually believe it could come back the way that the chart looks.
Yeah, you want to know what's also crazy, man? We were talking about LaunchCoin with Chill on the show yesterday,
and it's up like over 30%.
Man.
Everything will come back, bro.
Hey, bro, we saw Chill.
No, I think we saw Mooting reversing from the lows to like almost half a bill.
reversing from the lows to like almost half a bill you remember that yeah yeah and chill guy
You remember that?
Yeah.
also bounced in insanely off of the lows yeah mooting exactly as you uh cleared 99.5 calon
bitcoin which was the key upside level yeah i remember you were discussing the uh the may fomc
on uh that thread you put at the lows for BTC price discovery.
And literally within four days, Mudang did a 10x.
I think you could get a similar trigger above $130k on Bitcoin now that you had there.
Remember that 99.5k level, that was a key upside level from the range of $109k the high
to $74.4k level, though it was a key upside level from the range of 109 the high to 74.4 the
low, that wasn't in price discovery.
And you still had those types of moves just from very strong momentum on the chart where
people were like, oh, shit, the all time high is next.
Right.
So imagine a deep price discovery break with Bitcoin dominance nuking.
What will happen to old coins?
Like you keep getting glimpses of it.
This last little pivot point just needs to play out. and snooking what will happen to old coins like you keep getting glimpses of it uh this last
little pivot point just needs to play out hey guys if uh if you guys have been enjoying the show
over the last hour plus feel free to give uh donnie and myself a follow and also the because
bitcoin account we go live here throughout the week usual Usual start time is between 4.30 p.m. EST
to 4.45 p.m. EST. This is going to be the weekly wrap up. So we'll be back early next week.
I think it's Labor Day on Monday. So I'm not sure if we're going to be doing any shows that day on
X or even on YouTube as whenever equity markets are closed, we usually don't
stream.
So in case you guys want to come up and talk some shop or feel free to put any questions
down in the box and we'll get straight to it.
But if any of you guys in the audience have been tuning into these shows over the last
weeks or months and have enjoyed this content and want to give
your thoughts on the market you're more than welcome to uh hit that request button there's
almost 500 of you so i'm sure there's at least like maybe like four or five of you that would
want to come up but in case you're feeling a bit too hesitant or shy you guys can uh put your
questions or even your thoughts in the market uh down in the comment section no pressure
no pressure at all but once again the request button should be at the bottom left just hit
that request and uh and i'll bring you um right on up but um yeah um things on chain on soul
have this like they have they have this characteristics where it dies slowly.
And then once you start asking yourself, man, there's nothing happening on chain.
And then you have like random 30% candles happening.
And then before you know it, it's been, you know, 30% candles for a few days.
you know 30 candles for a few days and 30 candles for a few days is like a 3x 4x move
on uh on some of these tokens man so i'm excited to be honest i'm very excited
and the one thing that i'm waiting for man is like
after the sole treasury companies go live how is iwm gonna look because dude iwm
is making this is the thing man you have the s&p 500 going into price discovery and you have the
iwm making fresh local highs in a seasonal period where over the last few years it's been shitty
it's been horrible absolutely horrible so those are just kind of like my uh final thoughts for
the last discussion before uh before uh before we wrap up here man man, that's going to be really interesting, guys. Donnie, just one other question.
At this point, are you just completely fading seasonality?
Or would you not be surprised to see us just chop for two more months,
get bullish last couple months of the year,
and then assuming extended a correction
into the beginning obviously we'll see what happens but that wouldn't surprise me either
like more chopping to wear people out ramp into end of year correct and then some final
move maybe more into Q2 next year.
We'll see. I mean, I don't know.
But what do you think about that?
The thing about seasonality is that it's just been, in my view, from backtesting the charts,
it's just been not a coincidence because things have lined up,
but it's coincidentally lined up with seasonality.
Whereas this time, you've had a lot of things that are different.
So it's just not going to line up.
Even the thread that I posted at the bottom of April,
people were just speechless at the fact that I said
we could hit an all-time high in May and June for Bitcoin
when I posted it at the April lows, like April 5th or whatever it was,
because of seasonality.
Sell in May and go away or something like that.
And that wasn't even a part of my analysis at all.
It was just literally DXY is nuking, gold is rallying, Bitcoin is showing a technical
setup, everyone's bearish.
Bang, there you go.
And I even said it would hit up with more stock markets.
It feels the same now because i keep listening to people
and it's like so many people expect seasonality and are buying puts and all this type of stuff
expecting a drop that they're just gonna make it keep squeezing like yeah well i think i think
btc could have potentially front run the dip so So I'm talking about BTC here in crypto.
And stocks are not dipping yet, right?
But I think they could dip on the announcement of rate cuts at FOMC for a few weeks.
But I'm also expecting the dollar to dip on that announcement.
So that could dampen that downside on the SPX chart quite a bit.
I'm expecting a pretty decent drop in DXY from that.
But I think BTC has already
sniffed that dip out. So yeah, I just think Bitcoin is probably going to rally going into
FOMC or at least bottom around there. Yeah, it's like the Liberation Day thing where
it's like we already started going back up and people are saying like, oh my gosh,
like new paradigm, like we're not dropping at the same time, but we just
we went up and down before.
Yeah, exactly. And yeah,
we'll just see about it. I don't see like
I can't see like
us dropping
down here on the
Bitcoin price, let's say below 120
and above 106.7
for multiple months. Just nothing is adding up to
that to me nothing at all yeah we got fire on macro what's going on man hey guys what's going
on so i might want to share some uh some things that i see in the background that I've been looking at for a while right now.
If you chart Bitcoin against gold,
you would see a similar pattern of what happened in 2021,
where basically Bitcoin topped against gold.
And I think what's happening right now is Bitcoin is far from topping against gold
approximately to go up something like that I posted a chart like on my X where you can see
the Bitcoin versus gold chart there's also the fact that if you go over history and look at S&P 500 and Bitcoin,
Bitcoin tops when S&P 500 starts consolidating.
And until now, we haven't seen that.
SPX has been doing all-time highs after all-time highs.
And all of this is due to something called the melt-up,
where our government right now is just printing money.
And you can see that from the M2 money supply.
And as long as they're printing money, Bitcoin is going to keep going up.
Our assets are going to go up.
So gold is still going to go up, you know. So gold is still going to go up.
I can see gold next year at 4K, no problem.
So these are things like high time frame
that you should take as an outlook.
And for the four-year cycle i agree with
what wabi has said is that maybe the next bear market is not actually going to be a bear market
it's going to be like 50 off on bitcoin so these are the points that i have hope that helps
hey man thank you i appreciate it man thanks for coming up Hope that helps. Hey, man.
I appreciate it, man.
Thanks for coming up.
Donnie, is there anything else that you want to say, man,
before I wrap up here, brother?
No, I think that's it.
All right, solid.
I want to thank each and every single one of you that came up to request to speak.
Fire on Macro, Bromigo, and also Luke.
And Donnie, thank you once again for uh joining me i
also had prometheus up on stage but i'm guessing uh he had to go or something like that i didn't
hear him speak at all um but i want to thank you guys so very much for tuning into today's show
shout out to all the speakers and guys if this is your first time tuning in and the algorithm blessed you with this stream, we are Because Bitcoin.
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But feel free to check up the nest, guys.
Feel free to check out the nest for some things regarding bb terminal i've gone
ahead and uh and done that guys you guys uh include and you guys um are uh are in for a treat
as bb terminal is including some new stuff like on-chain trading execution we are building a
bridge list decks that's going to be insane for you guys that like the trade on chain.
And eventually we will be rolling out our mobile app.
So feel free to check out everything up above on the nest guys.
And if you are looking for an inner circle alpha group, you can also check out our links in our bios.
Donnie also runs his own ship as well.
Pretty tight ship also.
So feel free to check out his
stuff guys and if you have any questions in regards to uh the inner circle alpha group or bb terminal
you guys can send us a message and we'll get back to you within 24 hours at the latest guys we're
very active on uh our socials so don't hesitate to reach out if you have any questions in regards to terminal
or uh the inner circle alpha group on discord so thank you all so much spaces are recorded as
always and shout out to my lord and savior jesus christ for allowing me another day of health to
talk markets with you all i don't take any of this for granted so i'll see you all uh i'll see you all soon guys i'll see you all
soon feel free to follow donnie's profile feel free to follow my profile and everybody up here
who spoke so that being said take care guys byeんん
ああああああ
ああああああ
Ohんん
んご視聴ありがとうございました Iおやすみなさい。 Thank you. I'm sorry.んていますん
んご視聴ありがとうございました Welcome to the Thank you. .
