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MARKET TALK - THE BOTTOM IS IN!? TARIFFS CANCELED!? NEW HIGHS SOON!?
Recorded: Jan. 21, 2026 Duration: 3:02:25Space Recording
Short Summary
Market Talk highlights a pivotal moment in the crypto and equity markets, with Trump's tariff pause boosting gold prices and Intel's stock surging over 130%. The discussion emphasizes the potential for a tech rally, driven by strong earnings, while cautioning about the current volatility in cryptocurrencies.
Full Transcription
Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. I can't remember anything
Can't tell it just is true or true
Deep down inside I'll feel the stream I'm not gonna be anything. Pantelabasies, true or dream.
Deep down inside I'll feel the scream.
This terrible silence stops in there.
Now that the world is through with me,
I'm waking up I cannot see.
That this life was led to me.
Nothing is real but pain. Now, for my breath, I wish for dear, oh, please God wake me.
I'm not
I'm not
I'm not
I'm not
I'm not Just like a wartime novel, real dear.
Tied to my shit and being new here.
Cause this life I promise I can hold my breath inside.
I wish more dear.
Oh please God, wait for me. I'm going to play. Oh Always got it. Thank you. I'm going a man. I'm not mine, that's taking my sight, taking my feet, taking my hearing, taking my arms,
taking my legs, taking my soul, living with life in hell. so so Music Music
Music
Music
Music
Music Music Music Music Music Music Music Music Music Music so so yo what's going on guys welcome back to market talk brought to you by bb my name is Wabi, and I hope you've all had a fantastic Wednesday or Thursday, wherever you are.
And, man, I'm feeling great.
I'm feeling absolutely fantastic.
I'm resting today from training.
I'm just going to do some light cardio today.
I'm fasted right now, so after the show, I'm going to have my favorite protein shake.
You guys already know what it is.
If you've been tuning in over the last few years.
It's carnivore.
The cookies and cream flavor.
Honestly, beef protein is a lot better than whey protein.
Whey protein is basically like a, it's just another version of milk, honestly.
It's like powdered milk.
So beef protein is the way to go, that's the way to go but uh anyways
going back to markets we have trump coming out and uh essentially pausing tariffs and this whole
greenland situation is on pause and the market is loving it. The market's absolutely loving it. Gold is close to hitting
5,000. And I remember almost exactly 12 months ago, I was making a joke saying how long-term
gains that perhaps people have made over the last few years could be diversified into something like
gold. Now, I didn't do that, but I made a little
joke. And then we had Uncle Joe putting out a post saying, you know, the market is rough for
crypto bros once they start talking about allocating towards gold. And since then,
gold is up over 80 percent and Bitcoin is down about 10 percent. That's that is something else,
man. Talk about irony. but talking about other things that
are in price discovery man again sandisk continues to absolutely out face dude i don't know who the
hell is bidding this thing but it reminds me a lot of luna during last bull market and um
man that is insane there's always a handful of stocks,
whether it's in the US market,
whether it's in the broader market
that seem to just have this continuous bid.
I know some people are talking about
looking at energy stocks and all that stuff,
but you still have some AI names
that are doing quite well.
And one of the tickers that we've been talking about
here on the show is Intel Intel is up well over 10% today and has made year to new year to date
highs this thing is up almost 40% year to date and it's up over 130% over the last six months. And yes, I am using Google.
I am using Google to talk about this shit.
I do not use TradingView for stocks, man.
I just type in the ticker and I put stock on Google.
And that's the alpha right there.
But man, you look at things like Intel.
And we were talking about intel at what
price prometheus like sub 40 bucks sub 40 bucks going into december or something like that back
when amd was trending and all that stuff and this thing is still not even close to hitting its dot-com peak. Dot-com peak for Intel was trading at just over 70. Now it's
at 50, 54 coming into the close right now. And there's this thing with crypto guys. They see a
stock, they see a ticker that's valued at 150 bill, 120 bill. And they say, ah, damn, there's
no way I can make money on that it's it's absolutely
way too overvalued and then you see something like nvidia and it gaps up like 30x in front of
everyone's faces and um these spaces are recorded and i've gone on record to say that i i really
think intel can be one of those next movers that replicate something that NVIDIA does.
If you like SanDisk, it's kind of like beta to Intel.
They both focus on hardware.
And the equity market has a way of shocking people when it comes to these valuations.
We just take a look at something like HUD, for example.
Look at something like Hood, for example.
A year and a half ago, Hood had a valuation significantly less than Solana.
And now it's just blasted through that valuation.
And it's just really shocking to see how crypto has a way of really shaking people out out of making money, honestly, in different markets.
But nonetheless, they got Prometheus up here to start up the show.
We're going to have small cap sniper.
We're also going to have Matt coming in during the second half of the show.
Probably 430, 445, they'll be coming in.
So for right now, just going to be me and Prometheus just talking some shop.
But Trump coming out, pausing the tariffs gold continues to
spike up crypto there's really nothing at all nothing at all is happening in crypto land outside
of just a few small bounces um here and there white whale had a nice bounce um you also have
river which i still really don't know who the hell is bidding this thing
uh that's in price discovery again and uh i think i think we had someone on the show asking me like
what river is a few weeks back and it's basically i'm gonna say it again it's basically what um those stable coin chains like stable and what was the other
one called it was stbl and there was like xpl xpl i think right it's one of those projects where
it's like stable coin on ramps and all that stuff for trad fi and it just seems that the thesis for that is correct. It's just a ticker that really no one talks about.
And it's one of those low flow, high FDV products.
And it's way too late to buy this thing.
It's up like 10x year to date.
And I thought I missed out, man.
I thought I missed out when we were talking about it at like $12.
And it just
continued to rip and that's just something that you're gonna have to deal with in crypto you're
gonna have to accept what kind of pain you enjoy whether it's the pain of selling too early the
pain of buying the top the pain of buying distribution the pain of buying when it was on
the way down um and just flat out the pain of missing out on the entire pump.
And honestly, I think the worst pain that you can ever feel in crypto is seeing a project,
knowing it has all the good fundamentals, backing and all that stuff, and completely missing out on it.
So that just goes to show that i am in pain but uh nonetheless guys
before we officially get started if you guys could go ahead and show some love to the space
show some love to the stream best way to do that guys is by doing the following you guys always do
such a great job at doing this it's by clicking the spaces tab once you guys do that you'll see that nice link above all of our
profile pictures that says x.com slash i slash spaces if you guys can go ahead hit up the like
button hit up the read to button or repost button whatever it is that you want to call it does a
number of things helps bring out the show more out into the algorithm helps bring more awareness
to the brand and all that good stuff spaces are recording
recorded and as i said before welcome back to market talk and we're gonna go ahead and get
cooking man i'm gonna pass it on first over to prometheus and then i see max up here and then
later on in the show going into our usual time at 4 30 we're gonna have some of uh our usual
speakers and also uh small cap sniper who was on the show yesterday and that was quite the
cook session so I'm looking forward to having him here on the show as we get rolling so without
further ado I'm going to go ahead and stop rambling for the intro I have a tendency to do that but
it is what it is but for me what's, man? What are your thoughts on Trump stopping all
this tariff debacle? And man, I just, I guess if we want to talk equities too, right? Like we can
talk about Intel. I really think that people are discrediting what the hardware side of AI can do.
what the hardware side of AI can do.
And my worst fear is that it's going to end up like AMD,
where it just makes like a marginal all-time high,
like a 10%, 15% marginal, and then gap all the way back down.
But I don't really think that's the case.
I know there's like a robotics narrative starting.
And if we look at Intel again, and we compare it to the Nikkei, you're talking
about something that hasn't hit an all-time high in a couple of decades. And the Nikkei blasted
through. Then we also see things like silver blasting through. So what happens when you have
a tech stock that's about to do the same exact thing? And I know we were talking about this
yesterday, talking about how do you position yourself in crypto land with all this stuff.
And right now, that's just not the case.
So if you want to talk equities, we can talk that, man.
But feel free to give some of your initial thoughts.
And, dude, thanks for joining me on the shows lately, bro.
Yeah, it's always a pleasure coming on the afternoon shows.
It's always, you know, the diversity of opinions and sometimes it, you know, can go any direction.
Right. It's always pretty fun having the discussions here on spaces.
And I want to make sure Max has time to cook since, you know, he's generally not on these afternoon spaces.
And a lot of the listeners don't oftentimes have the or some people don't have the ability to listen in to Max.
So I want to make sure he has time to cook.
So I'll briefly kind of go over what I'm thinking.
Just give a few thoughts on Greenland here, and then we'll pass it on over.
And I might start cutting out.
I'm driving through kind of the back roads right now.
But the Greenland deal, we talked about it yesterday.
We talked about it last week, I think i think as well and there was some discussion
behind greenland and whether or not we were going to invade greenland never was kind of the case
that we were going to invade greenland it was kind of a discussion or talking point on whether or not
we were gonna buy greenland from denmark uh that was kind of in the talks and in the discussion
but hey if we don't have to pay for Greenland and we can get occupation
or at least have base locations on Greenland
kind of scattered across their land
with missile locations to protect against nukes
and all that jazz, then hey, even better, right?
So it's kind of saving taxpayer uh saving the taxpayer you know
dollars and money so i'm looking at crypto across the board man and it's still kind of
we saw a bounce but we're you know it's nothing it's nothing too exciting for me as of right now
you still got to get back above range highs. And then at that point, we can call this
manipulation and deviation, then back within the range, and you made a marginally, you know,
marginal higher low and, you know, caught me off guard and a lot of people off guard and yada yada.
It's just hard to imagine at this point for me, seeing the lack of liquidity within especially the on-chain and altcoin sector, expecting fireworks is difficult for me.
I am in the camp that you could still capture some upside or some returns to the upside.
It's just the market has to present you with that opportunity.
difficult right now in my opinion to really you know differentiate whether or not this is just
kind of in a liquid you know short covering rally uh and we're seeing a little bit of the shorts
get squeezed out of the market with you know indices obviously chatting higher it's tough
man it's the markets are doing this you know back and forth seesaw kind of motion and price action
and uh i i'm just going to
continue to be patient like i'm still holding some of my shorts uh close some out yesterday
which was a good move on some of my scalp positions but other than that the majority of my holdings are
uh my short exposure is in um you know short like solana and and some XRP and some of the other names like Sui.
But with that being said, man, I'm still not super optimistic. I need to see a little bit
more out of this market to really to really say like, OK, we're back. We're back in a big way.
Because I mean, man, I mean, even this morning we saw kind of a bounce off of the lows.
Trump gave his speech.
And then right after he got off stage, we just immediately reversed it.
So if we can hold on to this move and you can, in my opinion, see a weekly close more
specifically above like 96, like 96 and change to get above that 12 month range point of
control, you're looking really good till then up to about 108.
Until then, man, I'm just still really patient. On-chain is not exciting for me in the slightest.
XMR looking really bad. You've been talking about White Whale. It did see a little bit of a bounce,
but I mean, dude, it's down like still 70 80 percent
i look at gastown kind of the same thing and uh man i just you need to see a little bit of
rejuvenation within the market you need some stimulation in the all coin market
to get me back amazing did you see what happened in gastown? Did you see how that rugs?
Yeah.
Yeah, so the guy basically, he's like an AI dev or whatever,
and he made like 300K on fees.
That's how pump tokens work, right?
You launch, and based off of the volume,
you get a percentage of that via the fees that it produces.
He claimed it, and then he basically wrote an article.
I think it was his birthday or something.
He wrote an article saying that he wants to be completely separated from the token,
and within three minutes, it rugs like 95%.
Within three minutes, man.
Within three minutes. And that was after that was after Ansem and that him guy who was like a beast in Q4 of 24 during the AI run meta when it just outperformed everything.
And then Anatoly from Solana also interacted with with the profile and all that stuff in less than 24 hours or something like that,
within like 24, 36 hours of all that interaction,
that's when he put out that post.
So he's like, all right, I got my 300 bands.
I don't want to collect fees off of this thing.
Whatever.
You know what he said, Bobby?
He said, thanks for playing.
And he peaced out.
Basically, bro, Uncle Steveve his name is steve
he's like this 51 year old dude thanks uncle steve so sorry i just wanted to plug that man
that's crazy in three minutes 95 rug it's just people trying to capture any bit of profits they
can within this market i'm going through a through Apache place here usually for cell phone reception.
If you want to pass it on over to Max.
Yeah.
Passing over to Max,
Max brother,
what's going on,
man?
It's been a couple of weeks.
How are you?
Wabi,
wabi,
wabi.
What's up,
man?
I'm doing well.
wait,
I forgot.
I forgot.
I forgot.
Good afternoon.
How are you?
What do you think?
Yes. That's what I was waiting for. I simply cannot cook without that. But yeah, it has been a little bit. I was traveling and then had a funeral yesterday and kind of missed today and just, you know, just life. But I'm finally back at my desk.
I'm back at my 49 inch curve monitor. I'm a pig in mud right now, man. I'm pretty happy.
But yeah, I guess I can't really comment too much on the Greenland deal. It seems like there's a lot
of tweets coming out this week about it.
Trump's yapping a lot about it.
I guess we'll just kind of wait and see.
I don't really care too much about it.
I think it's a really, I think it's just kind of a funny time that we live in where, you know, there will be an escalation and like a very minor escalation.
And then like Trump will put out something on True Social.
And then like Poopcoin dumps 20% because of some, you know, like geopolitical tension.
It's just a really weird time.
It's almost impossible to scalp around because you're just going to get destroyed, you know, whenever Trump presses the post button.
But either way, I don't – I'm not really like a news driven uh trader and i'm certainly not of the opinion that whatever
happens with greenland is going to somehow you know either save bitcoin or derail bitcoin depending
on how you view it here um i'm really kind of in a neutral position right now. I was long from like 90K,
took profits at 95. I've basically just been flat and sitting on a lot of cash since then,
waiting for some signal. Most of my positioning, if not all of it, has to do with, I guess, my systems, right?
So it's just the volume Fusion Pro is what I call it publicly.
It executes based off of a bunch of technical criteria, mainly like actual buying and selling,
and specifically kind of their delta at certain levels.
And it's been in a mode that I would consider to be looking for longs,
kind of long hunting mode, but it's not in any positions and it's been flat since 95k. So
I don't particularly care to, you know, speculate or like position here because as far as I'm
concerned, this is smack dab in the middle of the range. Just my systems aside, just looking at this local range we've been in since,
I don't know what, end of November. The bottom of it is like 82, roughly. We weren't there for
very long. So they say 82, 83, 84. The upper bound is, you know, 93 to 95. We're at 90.
I think this is a terrible place to be positioning for the long term right now because you could easily squeeze locally back up to range high. Or you
could kind of continue down and test the range low again and maybe get some relief, maybe not.
But, you know, this is, in my view, just not an area that I'm interested in playing right now.
Not at all.
And again, my systems, which are monitoring Bitcoin, Ethereum, Tether, Dominance, and I guess Tether Market Cap, Solana.
I've even got some meme coins in there, likege and Pepe strategies, right, for the beta
enjoyers like myself.
And it's just kind of a mixed basket.
It's like Bitcoin and ETH are still in long hunting mode, but they've been flat for, you
know, the past four days.
So really solid, really happy with the execution there.
The Solana strategy is not in long or short mode.
It's just completely neutral. The beta basket in long or short mode. It's just completely neutral.
The beta basket is actually in short mode.
So it's kind of a, I don't know, almost like an accidental pair trade where it's like
speculatively, cautiously long Bitcoin and ETH short beta, crypto beta.
But that can change really quickly.
Like the systems are not positioned
right now with conviction either up or down, right? It's either sort of a looking for longs
and neutral or looking for shorts and also neutral, right? So I think this is a pretty bad
to give your three to six month bias with conviction and a promise that you won't take
out any more highs, you know, or I guess maybe take the lows and bounce again. But yeah, there's certainly some very difficult intraday
trading conditions that I'm just trying my best to stay away from. So it's a bit boring for me
because I'm just refusing to participate in the local chop right now. But I really do think that
there is going to be a break from this range here pretty
soon. I would hope it's next month at this point. Bitcoin's been here for a couple months. And
I think the one thing that throws me off a little bit, it's like, I'll look at Bitcoin structure
here. And I can say, look, I've been trading Bitcoin almost every single day for the past seven years.
I don't think I've ever seen Bitcoin bottom this way on the higher time frame.
It just doesn't do that.
It doesn't mean that it can't. It's just that I can't think of a time where it has, where they basically walk it up on like the mid time frames, four to eight hour time frame.
And they leave all these high timeframe pivots
completely untested, right? Typically, what you'll see with a Bitcoin bottom is almost the opposite.
They kind of grind it and walk it lower in a way, if you can picture that, and where it kind of
looks like it's going to slide and, you know, waterfall a little bit. And then you see some
clear signs of seller absorption, and they usually kind of rip the breakdown shorter's faces off.
We're not really seeing that here.
We have seen some cell pressure below 89 for sure, but it's the structure that is very confusing to me, where the structure itself looks bad.
But my systems are also telling me that, hey, you know, we could potentially squeeze up a little bit here.
Like, we're not know, we could potentially squeeze up a little bit here. Like we're not
positioning yet, but potentially. And at the same time, I look at something like, you know,
the Russell 2000 is just sort of like a really simple benchmark, right? Just really, really
straightforward. Just US small caps. The Russell looks fantastic, in my opinion. The Russell looks really,
really great. Not like I'm actually trading the Russell or not that I even really,
I wouldn't even have that much of an interest in it personally. But it's the relationship between
the Russell, the behavior of the Russell 2000, cyclically speaking, and that of maybe Ethereum
and Bitcoin and just crypto in general, and really
even more so altcoins. It's just sort of that trickle-down effect. It's that movement of
liquidity, that capital down the risk curve that we've seen every single cycle for crypto so far.
It is the NASDAQ, the large caps, the MAG7 will pump hardest first.
So then MAG7, then NASDAQ, then S&P, then maybe the Dow, then Russell.
And then you see something like ETH start to fire, right?
Like the beta of the beta of like we just start moving down the risk curve.
So something that I've observed and I've been
waiting for very patiently for like a year and a half now after IWM last December, actually,
actually it was end of November, I believe 2024, end of November, 2024, the Russell made like a
very marginal new all-time high, like swept the 2021 all-time high and then just completely nuked in
Q1 from, you know, whatever, the tariff catalyst. So there was that. And I've been kind of waiting
ever since for the Russell to, you know, grind back up to no all-time high because cyclically
speaking, what typically happens is the Russell will lead Ethereum into price discovery or a rally by like, you know, 30 to 60 days,
roughly. And again, we only have a couple data points. So I'm basically looking at,
crypto is not that old. We have like two data points, two Ethereum cycles, basically,
maybe three, depending on how you want to look at it. So it's not like I've got 20 different,
you know, data points to look at at and I say every single time it's
let it into price discovery, that's a pretty solid chance it's going to happen again.
We've got two data points, right?
It doesn't have to happen a third time, but I think it's worth watching because of, I
think, what the Russell climbing up into price discovery, I think, implies globally for the
implies globally for the risk appetite of investors. So I hope we're not in a situation
risk appetite of investors.
where the third time fails and the Russell actually sticks the landing in price discovery.
And we see small caps finally break out of this four or five year range that they've been in.
And crypto is just the plagued asset class. It's certainly possible that it is.
But I'm definitely not going to be jumping into any like high time frame max conviction shorts right here.
I would either want to do that and like this can be riskier, but I'd either want to kind of chase a breakdown for Bitcoin with some momentum as it creeps below 90, you know, like really creeps below 90, probably even more so like mid 80s. Or I'd want to see us
probably test the yearly rolling view op on Bitcoin, which is about 100k somewhere in that
region. So, you know, it's kind of a weird time. That was a lot of words to just kind of explain
that I'm not feeling that convicted, like right here, either direction. But again, most of my bias lies in, you know,
my automated systems that I've built. It's, you know, I can look at the chart and do all the TA
in the world and explain, you know, how it looks, how it feels, give a fractal, you know, find some
macroeconomic, you know, indicator that is in contraction. And there's always something in contraction,
be like, this is the catalyst. But I just don't really think it's here. I think we're just kind
of range bound. So yeah, my systems are, for Bitcoin and ETH, they're still actually in long
hunting mode. They hit the long from, you know, Bitcoin was 90K, TP'd at 95. So I've been sidelined since then. ETH, it was long from about 3K. TP'd,
you know, 250 points higher, something like that. So sideline for this entire move, I'm just
watching. But I just can't help but marvel at what the Russell's doing and look at what's
happened in the past when the Russell's actually gone into price discovery and say, you know what?
in the past when the Russell has actually gone into price discovery and say, you know what?
Maybe just maybe there's a chance, right? We got kind of a shitty hand dealt to us this cycle
for altcoins, you know, everything but Bitcoin. And, you know, my systems are, they're trying
to sniff out longs, but they're just not quite there yet. So I'm being pretty patient, but I'll
kind of end my rant there
so we can have more of a discussion.
Yeah, the IWM is actually breaking out and not having this marginal all-time high
like you had discussed that happened shortly after the election.
And that was kind of the trend throughout the last few years, right?
Like the IWM would make a slightly year-to-date high, and then that would kind of mark like a local top.
And now it's kind of doing the same thing that the Nikkei did, right?
This like multi-year of doing nothing when it finally breaks out with gusto it actually does the thing it's actually
doing the thing now now it's just a matter of like do we see crypto run um i see btc is actually
gapping up a little bit on like the one minute we're back above uh oh i'm sorry i wanted to
mention just one more thing i totally forgot to do this. I'm sorry. I do not like cutting you off, but I totally forgot to mention this. This is something like first three weeks of January
that we've seen in the past where Bitcoin, Ethereum, altcoins will pump pretty hard off
their yearly opens. And then basically we'll see some scammery back down where they flush it,
put in that swing low, you know,
chop a little bit below the yearly open and then turn around from there.
And so far, and this was actually really frustrating for me because yesterday,
Ethereum went on to actually take out its yearly open.
So like just mark out on your chart the opening price for Ethereum and the opening price for
chart, the opening price for Ethereum and the opening price for Bitcoin. Ethereum did a full
Bitcoin.
retrace of every bit of green that it had for the first three weeks of the year. Yesterday,
dip below that pivot. That's something that we watch really closely. There's always some games
played around, even like the weekly opens, daily opens, quarterly opens, monthly opens. Specifically, the yearly open is just a complete scam
festival every single year. I actually had a tweet about this, I think December 27th or December 28th.
Gave all the examples of it for the past seven years. Bitcoin this morning, I was looking at it and I was like, damn it. They front ran the yearly open
on yesterday's dump by like, I think it was maybe a percent, give or take. Ethereum actually did.
And I was talking to our community this morning and I realized that they actually didn't take it
out because I had an alert go off that ETH did take out that yearly, the yearly open, but Bitcoin
hadn't. And I said to him this morning, I was like, yeah, this is kind of a bummer,
but we're probably going to go back down.
There's just no way they're going to leave that unswept.
They drop it down there today.
What was the price?
What was the price that it was at?
The yearly open is Bitcoin 87.5, roughly. So they dropped Bitcoin down to 87.5. Now it's 3,000 points
higher, right? So I also think you need to be really careful trying to play, not just the fact
that we're in the middle of a two-month range, between mid to low eighties and mid to upper nineties, we're
just kind of right in the middle, but we're also around that yearly open pivot.
Like I have, I have negative interest in trying to position right at the yearly open.
Like that, that doesn't, that's not going to be a great strategy.
It's kind of a coin toss from here like very locally but watch that yearly open pivot
but sorry wabi i just wanted to mention that because there are a lot of games being played
and maybe some people don't watch these like calendar pivot points but
they usually provide some pretty incredible reactions if you watch them closely
yeah totally fine man i i uh that's totally fine um i'm looking at the uh the bitcoin
gold chart and i know some people might be like freaking out saying oh man why is bitcoin
depreciating so much against gold but that that same exact pattern happened uh last bull market um the btc
gold topped out at the early early stages of 2021 then had a double top later that year
and then went into an omega downtrend for over a year and as far as, we're coming close to that same time frame from last cycle after Bitcoin had topped out and just bled out against gold for about a year.
And I know we've been saying this for like two months, but dude, gold actually does look like a massive blow off, like a massive blow off top.
look like a massive blow off like a massive blow off top um and i don't really think gold is going
to have this like huge rotation where gold bugs are gonna sell their gold into bitcoin but what
i am saying i think the pair for btc against gold um is due for much needed relief like we are talking, man, we're talking like seven months of down only for that pair.
That's that is crazy work.
Even during the last downtrend from like early 22, late 21, all the way to early 2023, you
had some bounces, but this thing is giving no relief so
i mean max to your point with the iwm i i do think that correlation is going to come back
um i think it's just more of like we we got to move on from this whole tariff situation and back into growth, baby growth.
That's like Scott Bessette says.
And I think I think the stock market is really going to shock people.
Trump came out today and said that once the Dow hits 50,000, it's going to double very, very quickly, he says.
I don't think that's possible, but I don't know.
Maybe Dow Jones is going to double.
That's what he said, man.
But I do think at the very least it could have a 2026 performance of finishing the year at like 25 20 something like that um that's just that's just uh my take i i i
think what you saw with nvidia in early 2023 um when it really started um to run i think you're
probably gonna see that with intel you're going you're now going from
chips to to hardware right like robotics and all that stuff and you look at other things like sand
disc and all that stuff eventually crypto is just going to gap up despite all this weird lower
time frame stuff and on change sucks it really does man it really does but we all know
how quickly that can change we all know how quickly that can change um just look at how
the summer went right that was like three four months of of um of opportunity right matt what
are your thoughts man iwm breaking out and i still I know you're more of a stock guy, Matt, but like I really don't see anyone talking about Intel at all, which is extremely shocking.
But again, no one really talked about NVIDIA until it crossed a trillion dollars in market cap.
And then and then maybe history repeats itself. Right.
From one to four. four felt like overnight um but yeah um i think that um i mean come on you know me my my first true
love is taco bro you popped for taco absolutely yeah absolutely i put that out almost 24 hours
ago that um um bitcoin my one true love bitcoin had a bounce off the bottom of its range.
And it looked really, really good for, I mean, if your whole goal is to buy love, that looked really like the spot less than 24 hours ago.
And all we needed was a Trump taco.
And he absolutely delivered today. You know, you started to the beautiful taco. So no, this story is
not over, and there will be future dramas, and there might be a second or a third chapter to
Greenland. But if we just zoom out, trading your portfolio based on politics is just going to wreck you. It truly is. And Trump,
whether you like him or not, he's a pure chaos agent. So good luck predicting what he's going
to do next and then trading money off of that. I mean, good luck. That's way too hard. So to me,
these intraday or intraweek headlines, they're all buy the dip opportunities and stay zoomed out on the things that matter.
What matters? U.S. unemployment and U.S. economy in the form of earnings.
And we again, you know, you know me, I was pretty bearish last fall going into the winter.
I did not like the trend that unemployment was going.
But ever since the first week of January, when we got a good sign that maybe unemployment stopped rising, perhaps it was holding steady and even getting stronger based on the data that at least we have access to,
then boom, pivoted. Go hard into everything that's sitting on your watch list that you want
to own for the long term. And three weeks later, that still was the right move. Yes,
we're getting these little intraday, intraday week by the dips, but that's all they are. They're short
term. And a week from now, all we're going to be talking about, a week or two for now, all we're
going to be talking about is all the MAG7 reporting their earnings. And what do you know, they're
beating expectations. They're blowing out their earnings per share. S&P 500 is coming in bullish again.
We just had the major banks report and not one of them had a bearish thing to say.
And major U.S. banks are certainly the heartbeat of U.S. economy.
If banks are doing well, then you know that U.S. businesses are probably doing well, too.
It's not a one-for-one correlation, but it's –
I mean, it's not a one-for-one causation, but it's pretty decent.
So we're going to know.
We're just starting earnings season.
And before you know it, the first week of February,
we're going to get another glimpse of U.S. labor.
But I just – I look a little forward into the future and I just don't see us talking about Greenland.
All anyone's going to talk about is jobs and earnings.
And what are the chances that those both are really bullish and look good?
really bullish and look good. If that happens, like this, again, today was nothing but
another chance to double down on the companies you own or buy Bitcoin at the bottom of its range.
And the beauty of it is, even if you're scared shitless, even if you are really panicked and are positive or going lower.
Well, if you're buying at the bottom of a range, that means you can set a healthy stop loss at whatever.
You set it like a negative 3% or negative 5% or maybe even negative 10%.
But if you're pretty sure, hey, this is the bottom of the range, and if I wake up tomorrow and the price of Bitcoin is $80K, well, then I know that I got stopped out and I'm okay.
I didn't lose my shirt.
But, I mean, that's the risk we take.
You wait all day, you wait all week, you wait all month for cheap prices.
And when they happen, are you going to pull the trigger? Are you going to jump in? So
I hope everyone made a little money today. Hopefully this reversal has room to run.
Honestly, I think, again, if jobs come in decent and earnings come in strong, I think this is the catalyst that pushes S&P 500 north of $7,000.
If you zoom out and look at the S&P 500, it's been making higher lows ever since last fall.
And there have been plenty of major headlines that threw wrenches into that.
We had the government shutdown, and we had all this
and that. But if this was yet another 60-day, 90-day reversal, I think the next leg higher
pushes S&P 500 north of 7,000. I'm sure that NASDAQ will follow quickly behind it, probably north of 24,000.
Russell is already, obviously Russell is already in price discovery. And if the major indexes
are all saying we're going a leg higher, Bitcoin will join the party. It will. You already look gold, silver, the indexes,
MAG7, I'm sure behind them, Bitcoin will join the party. And, you know, I don't want to,
I don't want to call, you know, we'll cross that bridge when we get to it. We have some
major catalysts in the next two, three weeks to sweat out first, but this is the setup that could easily happen.
Matt, where do you think the S&P 500 trades with BTC going above 100?
Where do you think that is?
Well, other way around.
Other way around.
I think if S&P 500 breaks above 7,000, I think that's exactly the catalyst that pulls Bitcoin back above six digits yes
yeah because I mean think about it like you know smart money big money trad fi they're
always looking for deals they're always looking for what's not pumped yet oh okay the mag 7 okay
Nvidia oh wow Google new all-time high here comes sqp like they're always
looking for everything all of this is already run well who's what's the sexy names the sexy
tickers that haven't run yet what still looks cheap and i and i can buy and then i can shill
to everyone else to pump my bags well bitcoin, Bitcoin becomes that ticker. You know,
when everything else is, you know, just, you know, price discovery, new legs higher,
all-time highs ever, and then Bitcoin is still what, 90k or 95? You tell me I can still buy it 25% below its previous all-time high, below six digits.
They will pump that.
They will dive headfirst right back into it and everything that comes with it.
So that's obviously MicroStrategy.
That's obviously the Bitcoin and AI hybrid miners.
That's absolutely some of the other treasury companies. Everything
that comes with that. We just need a little luck. Let's have no bad news on the 1st of February
jobs reports from ADP and BLS. No bad news. And we need earnings to do what they do. Last earnings was nothing but
bullish. The previous earnings before that was nothing but bullish. Let's just have an excellent
Q4 from 2025. And yeah, S&P 500 north of 7,000, Bitcoin back into six digits.
S&P 500 north of 7,000.
Bitcoin back into six digits.
Max, does this mean that VFP is going to show a screaming buy for Solana
and that on-chain is actually going to be at least reminiscent
of what conditions were like in 2024?
It's possible.
I do have a Solana strategy right now.
It caught a nice long early in the year, but it closed out.
It's basically neutral right now.
So I'm watching closely.
It really is what I was saying earlier.
I don't think this is the place to, you know, scream from the rooftops, you know, your, you know, your conviction either way.
I think it's kind of a coin toss here.
I think there's a lot of contradictions in the market.
I'm seeing a lot of things that look really early stage cycle, and I'm seeing a lot of things that are looking really late stage.
And I think this has been for a long time now it's been really kind of a
you've you've been really rewarded for picking the right names in equities and in crypto it
hasn't been an environment where you can just position in anything and it just goes up. So, you know, I think what Matt said about they're always looking for the thing that hasn't pumped yet.
I think there's a lot of truth to that.
And I think we see that every week in crypto.
I mean, ZEC, you know, Zcash pumps.
Then suddenly Monero pumps, right?
It's like, oh, privacy's hot.
Wait, wait, which privacy coin hasn't pumped yet? Okay, Monero. Then, you know, Monero pumps, right? It's like, oh, privacy's hot. Wait, which privacy coin hasn't pumped yet?
Okay, Monero. Then, you know, Monero pumps, right? And then they, you know, everybody just
attaches some like narrative to it that makes this time different. And it's usually not.
But yeah, I do think if you look at Bitcoin's, you know, relative valuation, chart Bitcoin against
gold, chart Bitcoin against silver, chart Bitcoin against the S&P, chart Bitcoin against the NASDAQ, chart Bitcoin against anything.
Hasn't pumped in a while, you know, pumped in 2023 and 2024.
Hasn't pumped in a while.
So if equities keep churning along, yeah, Bitcoin's probably going to catch a bid.
We're probably going to get a nice long signal from the VFP. It's going to be epic. Solana is in like the worst range ever. Solana's in like a
two and a half year range. It's sitting right at range low. Again, I don't really have conviction
either way right now. There's so much contradiction in this market.
So much.
A lot of things look very early stage.
A lot of things look kind of late stage.
I'm just waiting to see.
Like I have some positions on the board for sure.
Like don't get it twisted.
Like I have a lot of exposure, but you know, I really kind of think from here, it wouldn't surprise me to see Bitcoin drop 10,000 points and it wouldn't surprise me to see Bitcoin rip back above 100K.
I'm going to be prepared for either one.
But yeah, it's certainly possible we do get some long signals here soon.
Like I said, my Bitcoin and ETH systems, which are really, really solid, you know, I've got three to five year back tests on on both of them they do
really really well um they're sometimes they can you know take a while to really position
for a trend but when they do it usually sticks for a while and both of them are right now
still in long hunting mode they're not in longs but we're looking for longs right now, still in long hunting mode. They're not in longs, but we're looking for longs right now.
Like it wouldn't surprise me within the next week if we got a really, really high probability long
signal on Bitcoin and ETH. And I think given the magnitude of the selling that we've seen so far
at the yearly open for Bitcoin and ETH, I think there could also be just another kind of local
positional unwind where we actually see things squeeze quite
a bit higher from here right if we do get that signal so yeah we'll see we'll see but i still
remain like gun to my head i i remain cautiously optimistic here i do like i'm i'm looking for
longs i'm really not looking for shorts here but I can come on here next week and that might completely flip flop.
So we're basically diddling right in the middle is,
as Tom says,
basically.
Oh boy,
David,
what's going on?
I think Dylan had his hand up first,
I think.
And then we'll go to David.
Jim,
what's up,
bro?
How are you doing?
Great.
Doing great. First time listener, first time caller. Appreciate you bringing me up to the stage. I've had this kind of crazy bullish thesis for this whole year, basically,
a whopping 20 days. And I'm just confused as to why Bitcoin hasn't ripped yet. When we look at Q4 last year, Bitcoin and crypto is basically
the only asset class that decoupled from everything. And there was a lot of, I guess,
fear in the market from the October 10th liquidations. And it's crazy to me that this
is still sticking around, that we still have this fear that Bitcoin still hasn't re-correlated with
everything else that's ripping and running right now.
So I'm just at a loss and I would love to hear what everybody on the stage has to say
about beyond just kind of like the trading, like triangles and charts of Bitcoin.
Why has it not recorrelated? When we look at the world right now,
everybody's afraid of what's happening with geopolitics. We have crazy things happening
in Venezuela. We have Greenland. We have Iran. There's this strong narrative to run away from
from governmental fiat currency, and we see that taken off with gold and silver.
governmental fiat currency, and we see that taken off with gold and silver.
Why haven't we seen that with Bitcoin yet?
It's not as if Bitcoin can't be a safe haven asset.
In 2023, we saw during the regional banking crisis that Bitcoin decoupled from everything,
and people ran into it as a safety asset.
So I'm just a little concerned why we've had this
or confused why we've had this narrative, why people have ran into Bitcoin as a safe haven
asset. And we're seeing this with gold and silver play out right now, but not necessarily with
Bitcoin. And coupled with this kind of, we're in a low right now, but there's the Clarity Act going through Congress right now.
So we have this almost, we're almost there with pro-crypto legislation again for the second time in a year in the U.S.
So with all these tailwinds, what is holding Bitcoin back?
Why is it not recorrelated?
So let me, that's a great point. I want to
address that. So I think there's a group of people out there that do view Bitcoin as a better version
of gold. And it is the thing to hide that, you know, to hide your wealth in when there's economic
turmoil. I think ultimately long term, that's what it becomes. But
as of right now, there's no evidence at all that I see that the market perceives it that way.
Bitcoin pumps and moves upwards under very, very specific circumstances. And it's not when there's
economic turmoil. Bitcoin moves up when the system is flooded with liquidity and people have an appetite for risk.
I've seen nothing but evidence over the past seven years of trading Bitcoin every single day that it behaves like anything other than a crazy leveraged version of the Russell 2000.
It's beta, right?
It reacts to liquidity conditions. It's
a liquidity valve for the market. That doesn't mean it's always going to be that, right? Some
people view it as a currency. I don't want to spend Bitcoin. I want to just hold it. I view it
like digital real estate, right? I think the market is generally torn on what Bitcoin should even
trade like or what it is.
So I think there's a narrative out there that Bitcoin is the ultimate safe haven and it's going to save you from debasement and you should be hiding your money in there.
And I think there's certain instances when that would make sense.
But the market generally as a whole treats Bitcoin as a high beta asset.
It trades like a levered S p 500 or russell 2000 i don't see any real
relationship right now to gold other than bitcoin sometimes pumps when gold is done pumping which
is kind of the antithesis of what you were talking about like gold will typically pump when things
are uncertain and then when gold stops pumping and we go back to risk on then bitcoin bids so
it's actually kind of the opposite, at least from what I've observed.
Matt, feel free to give your thoughts on this.
Sure.
I know you had your hand up.
I think Max is absolutely right. We don't appreciate what it means when we say central banks, and that can mean everyone from the global south to European banks to China.
China, I think we don't appreciate when we say central banks are buying record amounts of gold.
of gold. And it's truly as simple as that. You know, we can speculate on what kind of
And it's truly as simple as that.
high wealth private individuals are secretly accumulating Bitcoin or buying as much as they
can. And it's all very exciting when another company announces they're putting Bitcoin on its balance sheet, but no one has bigger bags
than central banks. We all know the phrase, don't fight the Fed. Well, central banks are buying
gold. That explains that chart. Take one look at the gold chart. That's why that is.
And we see it with smaller stocks and equities too. Like look at the Intel chart.
The U.S. government has literally a major stake in Intel and has overtly said loudly that they're not going to let it fail.
That's why Intel has almost tripled in what, a couple of months?
in what, a couple of months?
You know?
It's an incredible tailwind
when the money printers
are behind your asset or equity.
Now for Bitcoin...
It's now national security.
It's not a speculative bit.
It's national security.
How do you value that?
There is no limit.
It's limitless because ai is what
three years old um and the speed at which it's moving is insane but you but no one but i don't
think anyone can up here can tell me a uh i don't think anyone up here can tell me intel as a company
has uh 3x its quality or its products in the last three to six months.
Like they're still the shitty chip they always were, honestly.
Like I wouldn't buy an AI anything from Intel.
Nothing.
They're so bad.
We forget this, but they're so bad.
We forget this, but they're so bad, Apple dropped them from the chip in their iPhones and decided, you know what?
We can make a better, faster, more efficient chip for our iPhones and MacBooks than Intel ever can.
And that's what took Apple another one to two trillion market cap higher over the last five years.
And Intel is what Intel is.
They're terrible
they're a terrible company but the only let me just land it real quick but truly the only reason
why their asset price is doing well is because the u.s government says they're too important
they're too big to fail and we have to support them yeah uh so we have someone on our team called will's outlook and i remember in 2023 when
he joined us he was talking about carvana and carvana at that time was sub ten dollars
and you know the narrative was ah dude ev is done um carvana is going to file for bankruptcy or whatever. I think they did.
And it ended up being like the number one ticker off of the lows from late 22, early 23,
when we started rolling. And I'm not saying that Intel is going to do the same thing. But
what I am saying is the ceiling is a lot higher for Intel to go
if the sentiment really is like that.
Take a look at Sandisk.
We had Tina come up here, and he's like,
oh, Sandisk has been around for a hot minute.
I literally had no idea, dude.
I just thought they were an AI hardware company that came out in 2025.
And it escaped my radar.
And I actually found it because there's this one profile in CT.
It's this cat.
This cat.
He's this Asian dude.
He has a cat PFP.
His name is CL.
And he talked about it at like...
He's a real name, CL.
Yeah, yeah.
He talked about it at like a hundred bucks or something
like that and he's like um alt season is is going on in in trad five um but you have a dopamine uh
high of losing on chain and uh something like that right like people in crypto have this dopamine effect of of uh losing
right they're addicted to that to that sugar high of losing money he was implying something like that
and i'm like what the hell is this sandisk thing ai hardware that's actually a thing um
and yeah it's just been running up like crazy ever since. And then Tina's like, no, they've been around for decades.
And I'm like, what else has been around for decades?
Intel, right?
Because at that time, I was talking about AMD.
And yeah, whatever, man.
I'm correlating the two.
I could be wrong.
Not everyone is right on these things.
But at least the stock market, whatever it has is.
But I'm being interested in your opinion too, Wabi, but let's circle it back to Bitcoin and why is Bitcoin the last to pump?
I really think it has a lot to do with the softening and the weakening of U.S. employment.
Because the number one buyers of Bitcoin are individuals.
They're families.
They're maybe smaller family offices and hedge funds, but they're people.
It's not central banks.
It's some corporations, but let's be frank, let's be fair.
It's mostly strategy.
The number one buyers of Bitcoin is people, you and I.
And when you have a labor market that for all of 2025, you started with 100 and 150 and 200,000
month over month new job gains, and then you've trickled that all the way down to neutral job gains,
maybe even flirting with negative job gains.
Well, that's fewer buyers than Bitcoin, flat out.
And now throw in that the biggest liquidation in crypto history on October 10th and, you know,
and various other headlines like that and real events like that's going to take
Bitcoin price is going to take that on the chin.
So it just needs time to recover, you know, give it,
it needs more than just three months. It's,
that was a large wipe out and not great headline after headline.
But that's what I'm saying with you don't have to worry.
You truly don't.
Because if you have all other assets and equities breaking out into new 52-week highs and new all-time highs,
TradFi, Smart Money, you name name it they're not idiots they go out and they look at what what
are the names they know that haven't pumped yet and they will buy the out of them and bitcoin
is top of that list bitcoin still today you know is a what is the market cap uh
uh one point yeah 1.8 trillion dollar market cap it's still bigger than taiwan's taiwan
semiconductor broadcom meta tesla berkshire you name it like that is it's still in the top 10
on anyone's market cap screener so yeah trust trust that if this rally is for real bitcoin is gonna have its day in the sun too
i i would say you need the queues and price discovery and um again like i'm not as technical
as a lot of people like i know how to do ta and all that stuff and use trading view but
most of the time i literally just use google like i just put QQQ stock price and that's it.
And I click on the five year.
But on every major breakout with the Qs, when it goes into price discovery, Bitcoin usually follows.
And we saw that in 2023, right?
We saw that when we had that break in CPI. I remember it came in like well, well below expectations. And then the queues rallied all the way until early February. And that's when Bitcoin had kind of stalled out, right? Went from 15K, 16K, all the way to 22. And then you had that rally going into the summer. Bitcoin was kind of chopping, but it still was grinding up a little bit.
It went from 24 to just below 32.
And then the Qs didn't really do anything.
You had Bitcoin not performing, but usually during every surge
that the Qs have, like 5% above its previous all-time high,
this has been the trend at least since the ftx bottom which is
what i'm going to be using um that's when bitcoin follows so the queues peaked at uh like 6 30
something like that uh in late october so if you see the queues at like 6645, $650 plus, I think that's probably when Bitcoin breaks out.
And I think that likely potentially happens next month or early March at the latest.
If Bitcoin isn't just crap to bed and puts in a weekly close below $80K,
that's what I'll say, right?
Because anything can happen in this volatile administration um humans humans love big round numbers that we
can't help it we we just there's something about several zeros next to each other that
we just focus on it and it captures our attention so that's what I truly say, like set an alarm for S&P 500, 7,000 and NASDAQ 24,000.
That is just going to be such a green light to investors all across the globe that like, oh,
okay, I was too bearish. Everything's breaking out into price discovery. I need to get back in.
Because there is a lot of money.
I hate that phrase of money on the sideline, but it is true.
You can see it in different ways.
But who's actually buying Bitcoin here?
That's the real question.
Nobody is.
Hey, David, what's up?
How you doing?
Good, brother. How you doing?
I don't recognize the world that I'm hearing about on this basis today.
When people say they can't come up a reason why Bitcoin doesn't blast higher,
maybe because when Bitcoin was a billion dollars,
it was easier to move than when it was 2.8 trillion dollars.
And when Bitcoin hit 69,000 on November 10th, 2021, which is a long time ago, 69, it hasn't
69. It hasn't gone anywhere since. It's money market returns. And when you take a look at
gone anywhere since.
It's money market returns.
MicroStrategy, who fell 90.8, or excuse me, Strategy, when it was MicroStrategy, fell 90.8%
from March 10th, 2000. We were down 70.7% from the high today. Do you even understand what
Saylor's doing? Maybe I can explain it to you,
and maybe I can explain why Bitcoin has got big, big troubles ahead.
Okay, this guy, Michael Saylor, had a company that he was selling volatility when volatility
was going up, or was it extremely elevated? And then all of a sudden you have Bitcoin I bet
I bid options futures and options swing trading and volatility coming out of the
market but this guy's busy buying and he's at 713,000 coins and his company
is insolvent okay let's go over the math.
He had a company that had a market value three times the value of his coin.
And Jim Chanos, who I'm not the biggest fan of
and he's got some potential litigation
from some supposed missing money,
but nevertheless he said,
if Bitcoin is at X and MicroStrategy is at 3x and there's not much else in the company,
let me short MicroStrategy, buy Bitcoin, and squeeze...
But that's not...
Can I finish?
But that's not Saylor's problem.
Okay.
That's the investment problem.
You haven't let me speak.
Overpaying.
You haven't let me speak.
you haven't let me speak you haven't let me explain the problem okay so sailor had been
You haven't let me explain the problem.
Okay.
selling convertible debt with zero rates using the convertibility as the yield and then the
yield went up and then it became embarrassing as these things traded at a discount so he came up
with a new idea let me sell preferreds let me stack my midsection, let me interphase between my capital structure,
my equity, and my debt. And he came up with selling these preferreds, and they're open,
and he's had to raise the yield. The problem is, and you can see it so clearly if you're choosing to watch.
And it's the same story with Microsoft and the cloud providers and semiconductors.
They're selling so many preferreds. How do you hedge your preferred?
What happened with Oracle when they borrowed just $18 billion?
billion. Credit default swap traders
Credit default swap traders shorted the stock to hedge off the credit.
short of the stock to hedge off
the credit. People are
shorting MicroStrategy
to hedge off the
preferred, so that if
they don't get their dividend,
they'll make money on the short.
MicroStrategy is down
from its high. It's
trading not far away from its
coin value, and people are not going to stop
selling that because the more they issue converts, the more they're going to short strategy. And one
strategy, which has an average cost of a coin of just under 76,000 with 713,000 coins, when it goes to a discount,
it's not going to be the Chanos types that are shorting it.
It's going to be other types.
It'll be the dumb money.
No, it'll be the smart money.
You realize Jim Chanos already closed his short-shot strategy.
Exactly.
I said he's a different type of strategy.
He suppressed.
Yeah, he's smart.
He's smart and he doesn't want to get blown out. Okay. So let's complete this, okay, without, because you're very excited about coin.
I'm just trying to give people both sides of the story. Okay. I was, I covered a short at 74,000,
75,000, excuse me, 75,000, 091 on April 7th of last year at 429 in the morning in a post
that I sent, including Grant Cardone, Hugh Henry, my friend. So I was a bear at the beginning of
last year. I cleaned up in the middle of the Liberation Day. There's a big problem because strategy just bought a bunch of coin,
which caused it to go up, a coin to go to 97.8.
He's buying a lot, but it's costing his price structure.
He's loading up with more.
That is too clever.
That is too clever by half.
What are you talking about by half?
Are you telling me?
Are you telling me?
No, no, no, no, no.
Are you telling me that Saylor alone pumped Bitcoin?
That's absurd.
He bought 23,000 coins
for billions of dollars.
The tail does not wag his dog.
Okay, you know what?
You don't let someone speak.
You ask the question,
you don't know the answer.
He was a part of that.
Let me just say this.
Bitcoin moves mostly because of the short-term speculators,
not because a guy over four or five years has bought billions of it.
He bought 23,000 coins for $2 billion in a few days.
That's not enough to move the chart.
It's a 2.8.
Apparently it is.
David, do you
know the average daily volume sellers sold that okay you know what let's get away from that i put
out my that's one of the things i wanted to mention microstrategy will continue to go down
because when they sell all these converts serious people are buying them and shorting the stock
you are as a functional credit default swap trade.
You are going to blow up listeners.
They're going to try to short strategy two right here.
I didn't say to do anything on my basis.
I'm explaining why the market is acting the way it is.
Okay, if you look at Bitcoin, if you look at Ethereum, if you look at XRP, and you look at Solana,
the angle of their recovery is extremely shallow.
The volatility in these things is decaying, and a lot of traders are leaving these swing trades,
leaving this space, and they're moving to other areas.
They're moving to silver, as we spoke about on my Twitter account, before the big rally.
And now what they're doing is they're going into software, the IGV.
A lot of smart traders are going into the IGV, and they are leaning on it.
And if you look, the IGV, the software index, led lower by Microsoft.
Microsoft denominated in the NASDAQ 100.
You've got to go back to 1999, folks.
This thing is a disaster.
It's down a couple percent today, even after all the news.
It's going lower.
It's a four-plus trillion dollar company.
Excuse me, a three-plus trillion dollar company, excuse me, a three plus trillion dollar company now. And when you have software,
the biggest purchaser of NVIDIA's chips going lower and lower and it can't get any help,
what's that telling you? They're going to cut back on their CapEx. Go look at Meta. Go look at, we call it Mama now. Microsoft, Apple, Meta, and Amazon.
Mama is down considerably versus the S&P.
It's almost down on the year.
These are the biggest buyers of NVIDIA's chips.
If you look at the IGV denominated in the SMH, it is massively going lower. How are you
going to have chip sales
when the software companies
are melting down?
It's not sustainable.
The IGV is not melting
down.
Microsoft is not melting down.
On what planet does your dictionary
not have melting down?
You said Microsoft. You said Microsoft.
Yeah.
And the software.
I think you're staring way too closely at its daily chart.
If you look at Microsoft, Apple, Amazon, Taiwan Semiconductor, Meta.
Stop including Taiwan Semiconductor, which is a chip company with a software group.
Anyway, my simple point is they're all trading at about almost the same P.E., about 30.
If you think a P.E. is going to hold your living in Fantasy Island,
go listen to Stan Druckenmiller when he said,
what I'm trying to teach you now, he bought falling PEs thinking it was smart,
and he knew that the earnings always get lowered later because they're getting earnings estimates from the companies who are using their order book.
And it's just a cycle.
But what's really going on is the biggest companies are leading lower.
So you talk about time frame?
Go look at a monthly time frame.
Go look at a quarterly time frame, Go look at a quarterly time frame.
Don't look at a weekly.
It's too short.
Go look at these longer times.
You have Microsoft denominated
in the NASDAQ 100
going back a long time.
Meta, Amazon,
they're going back
7, 10 years.
There's no more outperformance. All they've done is accumulated liquidity. And they're going back 7, 10 years. There's no more outperformance.
All they've done is accumulated liquidity.
And they're shedding it.
And that's why Bitcoin is under pressure.
Because Bitcoin accumulated 9.3 decimals.
It went up 1.3 billion percent.
And it hasn't gone anywhere in the last four and a half years.
There's so many different narratives there.
I'm not sure what numbers.
I'm talking about selling pressure.
People using these things as a source of funds.
While you're watching Bitcoin, Moderna had five double-digit days in the last couple of days.
Wait, what?
Now we're in biotech?
We're talking about what's going up.
What is going up?
You can watch what's not going up, and you can waste your capital what's not going up.
Why don't you look at health care at an all-time high?
Why don't you look at independent mortgage brokers like PennyMac, PFSI, all-time?
Why don't you watch things that are going up and not watch things that haven't gone for five years?
The point is to get in before it goes up, dog.
We're not top blessing.
David, that's for you.
When you say that—
Five years is a long time to wait.
All right, we're talking about Bitcoin.
David, I want to ask you a question.
When you say strategy is insolvent, what do you mean by that?
That they don't have a business model.
Okay.
They can't meet their debt obligation.
No, that's not.
No, no, no, no, no.
Locally, they seem to be stable.
Okay.
But what's happening is the company is down 71%.
Okay.
Bitcoin is down 30%.
Okay.
Those are accelerations.
And when Wabi said the most important thing of everyone, or King Wabi or whatever, of everyone on here, he said the one thing, if you get the triple Qs accelerating higher, that'll be a roadmap and an expectation, a signpost for Bitcoin to be re-accelerating.
That's completely true.
true. But guess what? It's not happening. You now have the NASDAQ at a three-month. We are down from
But guess what?
It's not happening.
You now have the NASDAQ at a three-month.
the October 29th rate cut, which you had a peak of the S&P as the denominator. The QQQ as the
numerator. That was the 3.8. Okay. David, there has to be a way for you to inject your energy
levels into the stock market. Oh, believe me, those alts would shoot.
They would shoot to the moon.
The Dow Jones would go to like a million.
Like literally, I think we need Tina up here.
But what you said, and I'll close with that,
is the most important thing.
You just said it.
You basically didn't articulate it fully,
but you said if you don't see those queues going up, stop wasting your time.
Go look for other things that are working.
If queues go up, expect an alt season, expect apps, I would agree with you.
But what happens when they're deflating versus the S&P?
Even with rate cuts, we had two rate cuts, October 29 and December 10.
We even had a half a trillion of QE.
And what's happened?
The 3.8 is now 3.67.
The ratio is deteriorating.
And then we're losing Microsoft at an accelerating rate.
You've got Mama No Go up.
You've got less than the S&P.
So please just watch Mama.
Just watch Microsoft and Apple,
Meta and Amazon, SMCI and Facebook and Microsoft are 40% of the book of NVIDIA. NVIDIA is very weak. NVIDIA peaked in June of 2024 at 141 on June 18th, 2024.
We were at 77 today.
You're up 36,000 in 19 months.
These things are running out of gas because they took too much liquidity
and that money's going in so many other places.
You've got the Russell 2K up 8%, 9% year to date. Everyone's afraid to short that.
For 85% of the cycle, I am a natural short of small caps. 85% of the time, I don't even care
what they do. Short me the index, give me that money, I'll buy a thing, I'll buy S&P.
Can I ask you a question about microstrategy?
Please.
So I don't think that you're necessarily wrong that it's a really dangerous game that
Saylor's playing.
I've been saying that for years as well.
I think it can take quite a bit of time for kind of the day of reckoning.
I don't think so.
I agree with you, but I don't think the timing.
I was talking earlier to, I think it was Dylan, about what actually causes Bitcoin to move. Some people have this narrative in their
mind, or maybe it's just wishful thinking that Bitcoin is actually going to be some sort of
economic hedge. And it's a safe haven asset, which in my experience is exactly the opposite of what
causes it to move. It moves when liquidity conditions improve.
It moves when people want to go down the risk curve
and start gambling or pushing it.
There's obviously people that hold it
for a lot of different reasons.
We're talking about micro strategy, right?
It's down 70%.
I think I saw your post earlier,
the most they were ever down was like 90%.
90.8 in 38 days.
But if we're talking about liquidity conditions right now,
is it possible in your mind that the scenario you're talking about
where MicroStrategy, Michael Saylor have gone way, way too far out on their own risk curve,
they're acting recklessly. The company goes
belly up. They become a fourth seller of Bitcoin. Happens much further down the road. And what if
we end up having a bullish 2026 for Bitcoin? Because what could buy them quite a bit of time
is simply Bitcoin going up back to range highs of 130K or 120K.
Like, what type of probabilities do you attach to the scenario of their way out of this is just Bitcoin doesn't go down much further?
Because they're safer.
That absolutely would be a solution.
That is three standard deviations of a tail away.
This is the issue.
And this is the one thing I've been trying since I got onto my spaces 18 months ago to explain to people.
Please, I know it doesn't make sense.
I know it's confusing to people.
You're not mortgage guys, but you have to learn that when you cut interest rates under an inverted yield curve at the start of a cycle, it produces liquidity.
When you cut rates in the mid-cycle,
it doesn't produce liquidity. But when you cut rates under a steep curve, when the base
rate is low, you destroy liquidity by cutting. And that's why sometimes when you cut, the
market goes up a couple percent. Sometimes it's flat like the last two cuts or down a little. And sometimes when you
cut, it goes down a couple of percent. And that is the phasing of your active, your smothering
mortgage volatility. You're forcing the system to extend the law. They lose the mortgages. They
get prepaid. You get too much cash. It's the opposite of Silicon Valley Bank. You're forced
to buy treasuries and you mechanically blow out credit spreads.
And that causes all kinds of credit selling.
So when you said the Bitcoin behaved like a risk of victory,
that was the appropriate analysis earlier on.
That's not the case right now. What happens is when you have a risky event,
when you have a crazy event, you could count on the Fed to cut, but those cuts would produce liquidity. You see, when you had a risk-off event, Bitcoin went up because the risk-off event
triggered policymaking
actions which would mechanically cause liquidity to grow, and it went into Bitcoin.
But now we get any liquidity events, rate cuts will be toxic. It'll be good for the S&P,
you know, the low-risk stocks, which are, you know, we're doing very well. It'll be good for
mortgages, but it'll be terrible for people
who are short treasuries. It'll be terrible for people who are long-tech stocks. And it's because
in the cycle, the shape of the yield curve and the level of rates causes differing effects on a 13
trillion dollar asset class, which is like equity. Mortgages are short volatility, just like equity.
And that's all I try to train people on my spaces, is the relationship in the cycle, where are we?
What is the effect of policy accommodation? Again, Greenspan did not cut for 10 months after the peak and the Nasdaq fell 57% in 9 months and 10 days,
and the staples, they rose.
A dollar invested in the staples versus a dollar invested in XLK,
the dollar invested in XLK went to 9 cents.
It was down 92.74% versus XLP because Greenspan let the curve invert.
He let the equity, the NASDAQ deflate versus the S&P. Powell keeps on cutting, but he cut to his
limit. All future individual cuts of 25 basis points will have no positive effect going out
a couple weeks into the equities. If they did
50 in a shot, it would be good for a longer period of time. But then they're down at three and an
eighth. And then everyone's going to say, why would I buy risk when I could buy a mortgage at 5%
and fund it at 3%, wrap it a ton of times, flatten that curve, and that's terrible for the banks.
Look at the banks' earnings.
Not good.
And that's with Citigroup saying,
oh, we're not writing down our loans.
We have great customers.
We're not going to do the same write-offs that you expected.
We're going to earn more because we're not going to write off
our losses on our loans. That's never a good sign.
And I got a lot of Citibank stock in my pension, unfortunately. When you start a rate cut cycle,
it always helps. Regional banks just put an all-time ever high today.
Yeah, because people are trying to get out of the big banks and they're putting the money in the little banks.
There's going to be no regulation.
They are going to merge those banks.
You have to remember,
a regional can't buy another regional bank.
A regional bank cannot buy another regional bank
when their mortgages are trading at a heavy discount
because the accounting requirements means
the acquirer has to take a book value hit
for the discount of the mortgage to its par value.
And there are plenty of 3% mortgages and below,
and you've got 85 cents of the dollar mortgages,
the two and a halfs, the fannies.
As rates go down and that discount goes away,
it raises the probability of the greatest combination of these regionals with the labor shedding and the cost efficiencies.
But if you want to get out of a Bank of America, Wells Fargo, JP Morgan, a city, what are you going to do with the money?
Buy cash? No.
You buy a regional.
It's the same thing with Microsoft.
You want to get out of Microsoft,
you buy the NASDAQ 100.
You want to buy NVIDIA.
Do you know NVIDIA divided by SMH?
Is that an 18-month low?
People are trying to get out of NVIDIA,
and they're putting the money in SMH.
Not putting it in cash.
They're putting it in SMH,
and that's what's helping these third-tier companies like Micron.
It's not going to last.
Microsoft going down will drag down the semis, and the semis will drag down Micron.
That's the order.
If you could get the NASDAQ to a much, much higher level like King Wabi said,
Bitcoin's going to rip.
But as Microsoft plumbs the lows, and it's just getting worse and worse and worse,
it's going to drag these very heavy,
super capitalized things down with it.
David, have you ever seen the movie Boiler Room
or Wall Street?
I have seen Wall Street with Douglas,
Michael Douglas,
and Boiler Room,
I'm not sure I saw that.
I did see The Wolf of Wall Street, I did see Margin saw that I did see The Wolf of Wall Street
I did see Margin Call
I did see The Big Short
David you're a character man
you would fit in greatly in those movies
I tell you what
like those 1980's Wall Street movies
that's my time frame
if you would study that you'd make a lot of money
can I ask you do you know what the greatest
inversion of the yield curve was ever?
I have no idea.
It was in the 1980s.
It was 844 basis points inverted.
So you wonder why markets won up when they steepened the curve by 1,000 basis points.
We had a 2236 Fed funds rate on July 14, 1981.
A bond 1392. We had a 6.8% decline in the 30-year Treasury from May 30, 1984 till April 16, 1986. What the hell does that do to stocks when interest rates go
down 680 basis points in 22 and a half months?
So you've got to look back at history for context, but we have too much weight. You're seeing
Microsoft melt versus the NASDAQ. You keep bringing up Microsoft, and I think it's...
It's $4 trillion. It's $12 trillion amongst the four of them AI as a company.
And what happened in the last six months?
We learned that, oh, Google's Gemini is really good.
Grok is not that much worse.
Claude is getting adopted at really good rates by businesses.
I think competition caught up,
and it no longer made sense to value Microsoft
so much more expensive than the other Mag7.
I think it's literally a simple fact.
I agree with you 100% on that point,
but would you agree with me this?
If Amazon and Meta and Apple
go down on a 52-week basis and that they're going down in truck, meaning together, with Microsoft a little faster, lower, would that concern you if Apple, Meta, and Amazon all went down on a one-year basis?
Amazon all went to a
down on a one-year basis.
Because no one's going to a 52-week
low until May 11th
after we do the clean-out of the
Liberation Day spike down. So you won't
have the 52-week low, but down over
52 weeks, would that concern you
if those $12 trillion
gave up their 5% up for
the year?
I'm passing it as a small cap.
In other words, a $ cap. Honestly, no.
In other words, a $12 trillion number and then NVIDIA making new phase lows.
Hold on.
Honestly, no, and here's why.
Because NVIDIA, Google, Apple, Microsoft, Amazon.
I didn't say Google and I didn't say Tesla.
I said the other five.
Okay.
Microsoft, Apple, Meta, and Amazon.
Okay.
Mama N.
Mama N.
All right.
I don't use Meta myself, but most of those companies you just named, they haven't missed earnings since 2022.
And that's what would cause me to worry.
Like we're in earnings season. They're all going to report in the next week or two if they miss earnings
i didn't say anything about earnings my friend i always had the price that's that's fine if you
think the price is gonna be able to stay up regardless of if they're mean earnings and you
you don't think they could go down i don't i don't care about i don't care about what their current
i don't care about their earnings i care are. I don't care about their earnings.
I care about their prices.
You should care about their earnings.
I don't care about their earnings
because I don't believe them for a second.
I don't believe those earnings for a second.
Me and Stan Druckenmiller say
when the multiples are compressing,
you have to disregard the earnings
because the price.
I didn't care about the earnings
when I went balls to the walls long
on October 28th in my P the walls long on october 28th
in my pin tweets parent tweet october 28 2022 i called for a 15-year type rally the most in 15
years gonna last a few years i didn't know about nvidia's earnings i just knew these things were
slowing down i don't know how good they could get but i knew these things were going to melt up
because we had an ocean of liquidity
We had 13% nominal GDP and as that slowed down
You were gonna drive the and they went up a hundred ninety two percent in 20 months
I don't care about the earnings in a turning point. I care about them only
And they are well the market the market cares. No, they don't actually
That's what Druckenmiller taught you.
And that's what's true.
If the MAG 7 missed their earnings in the next one to two weeks, I don't care what their price is, they will all get re-rated lower.
All of them.
If they make their earnings, they're still going much lower.
That's my point.
Man, David, are you a wrestling fan, Benny Chance, David?
Are you kidding me?
Andre the Giant?
You cut a promo, I tell you what.
You're like Jimmy Hart.
I know that's from your era, the 80s.
You're like Paul Heyman, man.
Bruno San Martino, buddy.
Bruno San Martino.
You would be like the greatest wrestling manager for a big stoic guy.
You know Brock Lesnar and Paul Heyman?
Oh my goodness, man.
I just want people to look at both sides and respect big prices,
not little prices.
That's all I'm trying to do.
But David, I would like some input for some of the other speakers.
I appreciate the time you gave, but everyone should listen to this guy
because when he says watch the ratio of the Q to itself, if it goes up, get more bullish.
But if it doesn't, don't be waiting for Godot.
Thanks, man.
Small Cap, what's going on, bro?
Welcome back.
Hey, we got to keep David on the panel.
This guy is fucking awesome, man.
This guy's amazing.
He's like a wrestling promo man
awesome look real quick i don't have a lot of time left i i i got a question for david and i
um i don't like structurally agree to like the extent of i mean it's not that i don't agree i
get where you're coming from and i kind of i i think about the circular ecosystem within ai
every day it's like you can't ignore that right um and especially just how hard nvidia has ran
the last couple couple years and i mean what all-time highs 207 210 in that area 212 today
we're at what 180 we were at 177 and we're at 141 19 months ago that's not a lot
no no it's it's well so what's your i mean i take it that you're kind of leaning towards the you
know the circular ecosystem right that they're well they call it vendor financing and the dot-com
failure now they call it vendor investing. Okay.
And they do, and that's
what I kind of refer to as well.
And I agree
to an extent, right? I'm looking at it from both
sides like you're saying, but this is where I'll push back.
I personally
don't, and I wasn't even alive
during the dot-com bubble, but I've studied
and researched. I'm jealous of you.
Yep.
You don't have to be that jealous. Are you you kidding me youth is a gift that you cannot buy i hear you it 100 is um but
you know in doing my research and kind of just looking at the the ecosystem that they had in
in the dot-com bubble right there wasn't really an ecosystem it was just pre-revenue startups
they're spending 400 to 500% of their, their
CapEx was 400 to 500% of their revenues. So if I'm looking at like Nvidia, I don't just
broadly, it doesn't, I don't think that like they're desperately subsidizing weak buyers or
kind of masking fading demand. Right. I, I kind of do believe Jensen when they talk about like,
it's just strategic ecosystem building and like building in a supply
winner's take all market.
And then they're just locking up like the future deployments.
And I mean,
I think that that's how you create true dominance.
So I don't know if it's like a straight up giveaway or deep accounts,
deep discounts,
like eroding profits.
It seems like they're just structured as investments or pre-purchases
that kind of secure guaranteed orders and and or at least like on milestone based payouts that
will bring revenue back in and if you like if you look at the actual numbers they tell a different
story from running out of steam but i i take it you don't really you kind of are you talking like
depreciation to where you don't no no no i'm? No, no, no. I'm not going the Michael Burry route.
But can I ask you two questions?
First of all, are you familiar with the Buffett or the Levinson rule?
The Buffett rule is you denominate the Russell 5000 or the S&P 500 and the U.S. GDP 31 billion.
And the Levinson rule is you're denominated in the globe.
Because the next bull market that we have in tech is going to make this one seem
like a little bump. Okay, we're going to go up 100x, not 32 times x. We're going to rebuild the
world. But we peaked at 139% of GDP on March 24th of 2000. The GDP was 10.25 trillion, the S&P was $7 trillion, and the NASDAQ was $6 trillion.
So the NASDAQ loses five of the six down to one in 130 weeks.
The S&P loses two of the non-NASDAQ, so it lost seven, but five of the seven was the
NASDAQ over the same 130 weeks, but two extra days.
Okay.
We went from 139 down to 70% of GDP.
If you would have calculated the PEs of these great tech companies that we are talking about,
when the market was 139% of GDP, they would look the same as they did in 2000.
The only thing is they ran the economy hot. Greenspan didn't cut. He had 6.5% to cut. He
didn't cut till it deflated. Powell keeps on cutting. He's wasted everything. He's done a
trillion and a half of QE from the trillion QT.
He got rid of that, slapped out a half a trillion of QE.
He cut rates 175.
There's another 50 priced in.
It's two and a quarter.
He ran the economy hot.
We don't have any more fuel in the tank.
The last two rate cuts didn't work.
So I have a question for you.
Do you just as like a like a counter do you think that like back then it was kind of as far as the 2000 like redux the the bubble was
just pure.com speculation with zero profits sky like pe's out of this world gdp growth wasn't
really backing the mania but today you know you know, it's driven by, like, real earnings power, especially in the AI.
That was my point, friend.
Okay, I got you.
If Greenspan would have been cutting rates instead of deflating, then those companies would have gone to profitability.
They wouldn't have gone bankrupt for several more years.
And then they would have gone bankrupt.
Because all that's going on, friend, is we are talking about cyclical stocks, not growth stocks.
I'm old enough to remember Intel and Apple trading at 10 times earning, and people saying those were expensive.
10 times earnings.
Market caps, decimals less.
When you run the country hot and you do negative cost of capital, because that's what these rates are.
They're negative cost of capital when you drive the bond yield up. when you drive the 10-year note yield up. It's negative
cost of capital. People are shorting treasuries and buying tech. And when
bonds want to get a rally and the Fed cuts and stops the rally by delaying the
prepayments and trapping all that liquidity inside the mortgage volatility. If you had a measurement of when the S&P 500 was only,
um, let's see, 28, 28 trillion in the GDP times 1.4. Okay. 38 trillion GDP,
uh, 39 trillion, uh, S&P 500. That's when the companies were much more high multiples. Like NVIDIA,
they say it gets cheaper and cheaper as it goes up. Well, when you go back one time of GDP expansion,
you would have the same complexion of very, very high multiples. It's liquidity that let these
things build out, but there's never enough, and there'll never be enough demand for this compute.
And that's what the software is telling you.
They're not going to have the profitability.
Salesforce, Adobe, ServiceNow, Microsoft, Intuit, these things are all 50 till we close or near it.
The money is leaking out.
We cannot have a recession, folks.
It's too much money. There's too much equity.
The money's going to go somewhere, and it's not getting recycled back into tech.
It's a down escalator.
It's going into the small cap. It's going into healthcare, utilities, staples.
It's going into independent mortgage brokers.
brokers. It's going into interest rate sensitives. It's going into biotech. I'm only asking you folks
It's going into interest rate sensitives.
It's going into biotech.
to watch to see if you see more money going from mama into the low beta stocks than decaying high
beta. That's all I'm asking you to watch. Because my view is we have the greatest glut of savings
in history.
They printed more money.
You're talking about fiat.
They printed money like crazy since 1971.
It's got crazier and crazier. We took the balance sheet of the Fed from $890,000 at the peak of dot-com.
Now it got to $8.9 trillion, 10x in liquidity.
We went back down to $6.5 trillion, now we're trying to creep back up.
Watch where the money's going, always and forever, and watch the biggest companies.
This piece of garbage United wholesale, it's now almost back above its recent high after
up 50 from its low. Lilly, boom, it's going to be a trillion dollar company.
Walmart, Costco, they wrote off.
It's up $100 in a couple of days.
They announced they're going into competition with Home Depot.
They're selling appliances with installation.
That's going to be growth.
I'm just like, watch where the money's going.
Don't listen to me.
Listen to your eyes.
Watch where the money's really going.
What's going on now?
What's working now? I'm from on now, what's working now.
I'm from the church of what's working now.
Not, I'll give you money on Tuesday for a hamburger today.
Stop deploying all of your money.
You can do whatever you want.
But give a little of your money to what is on the new high list,
outside of what had been on the new high list.
Because I'm telling you, on May 11th, when we cycle through this Trump spoof,
he spoofed everyone when he says,
ah, I'm going to have 145 tariffs.
He wasn't serious.
Nobody serious thought he was serious.
People dumped, they had to buy it back.
By May 11th, you strip out all that price from April 2nd to May 11th,
those six weeks,
you will be shocked how many tech stocks end up being on the 52-week low list.
And you'll be shocked how many staples, healthcare, utilities, home builders,
independent mortgage brokers, mortgage ETFs,
and then treasuries even are at their 52-week highs.
Please watch what's working with your precious money,
and don't sell your time.
Don't wait and wait and wait because your time loses money every single day because they're printing, printing, printing.
And when Bitcoin 69 on 11, 10, 21, and it doesn't go anywhere.
And now you have Saylor just loading up his mid cap structure with preferreds.
Was it 8 billion now? And people will hedge those by shorting his stock. And the more he sells the preferreds, the worse his stock
will be. And at some point, he'll be down $80. And I think at some point, he'll be down $90.
And that will eventually cause people to short Bitcoin by buy MicroStrategy, because it's at a 25% discount.
And that just tips and forces those 713 or 750 or 800,000 coins, whatever he has, before they throw his ass out of that company.
Because when it was trading at a premium, do what you want.
When it's trading at a discount, activists will buy every share of MicroStrategy.
When it's trading at 25 and 35 and 45 to coin, and they will just pay off all the preferreds,
they'll sell all those coins, call it a day, make their money. Because risk-free is 3.6,
not 36. They'll take that trade. So just watch strategy for your lead into where coin is going to go.
Watch Microsoft for the NASDAQ. Watch NVIDIA for the SMH. Watch what's happening. Watch where the money's going. You had restoration of four. You had Williams-Sonoma consolidated for a year after
they went into the S&P 500. It's the highest monthly close ever. That piece of garbage,
close ever. That piece of garbage, mRNA is up 100% from the low. I understand Intel's up 150%
from the low, but watch what in high volume across many companies is scaring people.
Just watch the price. The bigger it is, the truer the price. And when you get the alignment of mama go down, regardless
of earnings, it's a fact.
And the lower it goes, the faster it goes,
you'll see rising at
dealer hedges being lifted,
dealers delta hedging, selling,
pushing this down lower
and lower. What's in mama again?
It's Microsoft
and Apple.
It's in Meta and Amazon because the price,
you had Microsoft and Apple were $4 trillion,
and Meta and Amazon were like the three,
and then NVIDIA was like five.
How come you don't count Google or...
Because right now, everybody's short that
from thinking that the judge was going to break them up.
It will get dragged down with the other ones.
When they start cutting prices to get volume, it'll hurt Google also. It's just who shorts
an all-time high, right? Nobody. Doesn't make any sense. Wait for it to go down 10%.
If you're a day trader and you trade volatility, do what you want. But nobody positioned short something at an all-time high.
You short weakness.
You lean on it.
It's a blackjack.
You get more weakness.
So I'm talking $4 trillion.
NVIDIA gets dragged down because those are the biggest customers.
Look at SMCI.
10% of the book of NVIDIA's revenue.
It's at its low.
It's almost at a 52-week low. it's almost at a 52-week low it's almost at a multi-year low
so you're talking 40 of the company's book microsoft smci uh nvidia throw in dell how's
dell looking dell's not looking hot hpq is a five-year low so please just watch all of this
tech because they stretched out an economic cycle.
Now, I'm not saying the cycle's going to end and cause a recession.
We're freaking growing at 6% right now.
We got 8% nominal GDP. You don't go into recession when you have all these government spending programs,
all the shock absorbers, all the equity,
and you don't have the risk of the banks closing off mortgage refinancing like the anomaly of GFC.
You got the independents out there.
They got more than 50% market share and anyone should go to their bank.
If they got a mortgage and say, I got an offer from Rocket and I got an offer from United Wholesale
and they're 120 basis points lower than me.
Should I give them the paper or can you write down my mortgage?
No fee.
Ask them to write down your mortgage by 100 basis points.
See if they say yes.
You'll thank me.
Ask.
It doesn't hurt.
They'll say, we don't have the paper anymore.
They can't do anything.
If they have the paper, it's called retention.
It's happening.
All the people on MySpace, they tell me they made the call.
They got the lower aid.
One of the guys that worked for me said he didn't even make the call yet.
He's going to make the call. They said, rate one of the guys that worked for me said he didn't even make the call yet he's going to make the call they said we'll do it for you please watch prices watch
big prices i understand alts are small and they can move 10x bitcoin moved 9.3 decimals 1.3 billion percent.
13 million times up in price.
It's not a billion anymore, folks.
It's not 100 million.
It's 2 trillion.
And you have to remember,
Bitcoin may have only 21 million coins,
notwithstanding paper, Bitcoin,
but you've got 35% alts.
That's supply.
That's why silver's going up.
Gold got too expensive.
They moved on to silver.
Eventually, you'll see gold losing its bid.
Silver will stay up, and then it will Wiley Coyote and get dragged down.
Same thing with semis.
When the FNG, S, the FANG basket, melts down lower and lower and lower,
and it was down 10% at one point, when it gets down 20%, it will eventually drag down semis.
And then semis will eventually drag down Micron and Sandisk.
But they can stay up there because people made a lot of money.
They ran over the shorts.
But the big stuff, nobody's short.
You don't have Druckenmiller screaming short the two-year.
He says short the bond where there's no supply.
Not the two-year, the bond.
Same thing.
MicroStrategy is a big girl.
Meta, Amazon, Apple.
Just watch the big stuff.
Let it tell you the truth.
of the truth. On the other
On the other hand, you have tails like a MicroStrategy.
hand, you have tails like a micro strategy.
Very small.
Very small. It's
46 billion versus
50 times the size
in Bitcoin.
Bitcoin is down 30%.
The market's down 1%.
Okay. Micro strategy's
down 71%. Watch
that orientation. It's called an eigenbasis.
Watch micro
strategy lead lower, make new lows at 150. Make new lows an eigenbasis. Watch micro strategy lead lower,
make new lows at 150, make new lows
at one and a quarter.
100 means it's down 80%.
54 means it's down
90%.
49.95
means it's down 90.81,
which means it's more down
than it was the last cycle.
Please watch price.
Don't. Don't listen to me. Don't do anything I've said. Just watch the price and do what it's telling you. There are so
many things going up. You're ignoring things that are moving with low volatility, just melting up,
and it's growing and radiating. Watch once a week. How many names of the new high list are in what sectors.
That's telling you where the money's coming from, where it's going to. You watch the new high list,
you watch the new low list. And it's going to be confusing until May 11th when we cycle through
that Liberation Day spike down. But then you'll be able to have 52-week lows propagating all over
the place. And people get more confidence in shorting a 52 week low
and funding that using that
source of funds to buy something that's
up and wait for that to fail.
Always look
at the new hind list for what's working.
You haven't seen any software companies
anywhere near that.
It's cobwebs on the buy button in software.
Please just watch the prices.
Don't listen to me.
Just watch them.
Don't be bag holders for the whale exit.
It hasn't gone anywhere.
It's just recycling and churning.
And the pied piper of this whole story,
and I was long sailor a lot,
and I was long Bitcoin a lot,
but there are times you've got to be short.
And now is the time, I think,
you're getting leadership lower
in the cyclical zone.
And it's not going to cause a recession, which is the important thing.
Because all that money, by the way, we talked .com.
The gentleman talked about these companies weren't making a lot of money.
You know what happened when the NASDAQ fell 83.6 and the XLK fell 90?
We had the greatest year of all time in housing.
Because that money went into mortgages.
Policymakers diverted away from mortgages and the market sent it back.
And Trump's telling you, buy stock, it went up.
Trump's telling you, buy mortgage,
I would maybe listen to him
as long as you see it moving.
And when you start to see Home Depot,
that dog, just melt up lows at a 52-week high, $300 billion,
Rocket Mortgage got, you know, they call me Rocket Man. I don't want to be Rocket Man.
I'm not North Korea. I'm not Elton John. I'm taller than that.
But the independent mortgage brokers, they're melting up.
Matt Ishby at United Wholesale, special case, sold a lot of stock,
did a little caller when he bought the sports franchise, but those two, PFSI, they're 50%
of housing. There's no roadblock to housing. You've got these ITB, you've got these, you know,
Trump spoofed everyone again. We've got to listen. He's tricking all of you.
He told you, sell your housing.
I'm going to ban the biggest people that can afford to buy as many houses as we need.
I'm banning them.
And you know what he said today?
Never mind.
He said, I'm not banning them from buying them, building them, and renting them.
He just completely reversed what he said.
I'll allow them to buy to build.
They can't buy an existing home.
They can only buy new ones.
That's what he said today.
Take a look at ITB.
For you who risk junkies, look at NAIL.
Not advice, folks.
It's a triple lever.
Where's the money going?
That's where you smart, actively watching better traders than me.
I bet 70% of the people on this space are better traders than me.
On a day, intraday, short time frame.
I bet anything, because that's why they're here, for your advice.
So give some of your money to that, to what's worth it.
I just have a question, because this is going to be more. I know he's speaking a much longer time frame here.
Not so long, friend.
Not so long.
It's happening now.
Just not today.
They're looking at daily candlesticks and short-term traders, etc.
But I have a question just regarding to you.
I want to know if you have any thoughts on the Clarity Act or if you watched anything from Armstrong.
That's completely in.
You smart folks understand that stuff. It's in. This is the tension. The big banks are in big,
big trouble. They have three businesses. Okay. Number one, they issue credit. Okay. That business
is over because of private credit. Credit spreads are at their tightest in 30 years. They're not making any money on that. Their other is selling mortgages. They're losing that business from independent
mortgage brokers. Their third business is ripping off investors, savers, and giving them no money.
And now they're saying you cannot have crypto pay interest. What would the banks be like if crypto could pay interest?
How long before they evaporated? You wonder why KRI is doing okay? A lot of people at
KRI, they just get the no interest rates for the convenience. They keep the money there
because they get other kinds of loans. What happens if they pass the clarity? What happens
to the big banks?
Well, that's a pretty start to see and that's that was kind of what I was gonna lead into here Which is just like you don't see a world where I mean Donald Trump said this today
To as well at the Alan Greenspan issue is that he wants a federal reserve chair
It's going to act in the same exact manner
But what was interesting is very early on and when you started talking about just the interest rates and liquidity, you actually believe that even if we were to drop the interest rates now at an excessive rate, just due to the current market state, it's actually not going to inject destroy liquidity. You will accelerate prepayments, and a prepayment of a mortgage is money death.
When you lower the duration of a mortgage,
duration equals money supply.
It's death.
We already have a 599 last Friday
when Trump made the announcement
that he was buying mortgages.
Okay, 200 billion.
By June.
Okay.
Then, you know, he announces the housing thing.
So when they announced he's buying mortgages, the first thing I said,
well, what happened is I was talking in my spaces that day, and I said he's going to have to buy the mortgages because he's running and he wants the rates down. Later in that spaces, it came
across the tape. He was buying the 200.
I said, tenure rates are going up
because mortgages are 200 more cheap to the yields.
In other words, you have a 200 basis point
extra yield in mortgages.
So people will short the tenure and buy a mortgage.
And that'll work for a little while
until both of those rates fall.
But for a little while,
you'll have upward pressure on the tenure as people are borrowing enormous amount of money
to buy mortgages because Trump just told everyone, buy mortgages. But when you did,
by the way, if anyone didn't notice today, they announced the prepayment, the, uh, the,
the refi index for the, um, for the week was 183%. It was the high for the cycle.
week. It was 183%. It was the high for the cycle. Now, last year when they cut,
after stale two years before, we had 187 one week, I believe. We're at 183 today.
We're going to go into the 200s. Those are refi, 6% market share, adjustables are up to 7%.
Those are refi, 6% market share, adjustables are up to 7%.
When you get adjustable rates, 15% market share, because short rates are lower than the long rates, the banks lose those mortgages completely.
Those mortgages are going to go to United Wholesale that's offering a 540.
they'll be offering a five and a quarter
They'll be offering a 5.25.
and if they cut rates by 50 basis points
over two meetings
they'll be offered $499
for a 30 year
amortization schedule
and the rate fixed for five years
and when the Fed has just cut
225 basis points
and you got to move
you won't care
you'll say I'll refinance in five years
the whole point is
rates going lower causes money
supply to rise because banks have a lower funding cost. They make more money and they can leverage
that dollar of earnings into $10 of loans. The problem is when the curve flattens, you're causing more mortgages to refinance and shorten those average life,
and it neutralizes the benefit of the rate cut. But when you get lower in rates towards three,
you start to aggressively flatten the yield curve, and then all those mortgages in our cycle
will go to the independent mortgage brokers, and that's going to be put on the balance sheets of pensions and insurance companies and they don't lend and they don't lever that up
and we're going to lose a lot of money supply that the banks are creating and we'll get money supply
from anything housing related which is why you're seeing a rise and how do you really want to be
short williams sonoma at the highest monthly close ever, despite
mortgage rates being at 620, and they have the ability to go to three by next year sometime?
Do you really want to be short Home Depot and Lowe's?
I don't think so.
But it doesn't matter what I think.
Watch these prices.
Watch the multi-stick days.
Watch the days where these companies go up multiple percent.
Add up all the times the low beta stock goes up 100 percent because my insight that I'm trying
to express is we've had so much fiat printing, so much savings. There's not enough stock. They said
there wasn't enough stock in FAANG. The founders have all the stock in the world to sell and get out on the way up. There is no stock available in low beta. We didn't have a lot of passive money,
as they call it, savings back in 2000. So when they came out of tech, it didn't
run like crazy. It only went up 45% the XLP before it rolled over.
We haven't even seen these things go down and you've got
xlp was at one dollar of an all-time month and close yesterday today uh health care a whole
index etf is up three almost amgen up three and a half whatever watch what's going up dollars
watch what's going up multi-percent that's what your game is when you're a trader to find what's going up dollars. Watch what's going up multi-percent. That's what your game is when you're a trader,
to find what's going up multi-percent.
And that's what Bitcoin was from its genesis.
And that's why it went up 30.
It went from $1 to 30 in 2009.
It went from 1 in February of 2009 to 8 in three months. That's doubling every two months.
And then it went from eight to 30. That is almost 400%. 375%. In one month,
Bitcoin was up 800 basis points in the last quarter prior to the recent one, two quarters ago. 800 basis points.
We were up 80,000 basis points. That's why you wanted Bitcoin. That's why you want it all.
Mwabi talks about times when he got in a coin and it went up 6x, 7x, 8x. None of that's happening
anymore. You haven't seen any of it for years, but you are seeing it in other stuff.
And now you're seeing it in stuff that's not even tech-related. It's a piece of garbage,
Moderna, 22 to 50. You've got to watch what's working. You've got to see strong names where
the board goes up like a garvana. When it ran, it got shorts caught. look at this wayfair i don't know what they do canadian
furniture whatever set a three plus year high everyone thought it was going out like arvana
it's up what 300 from its low you've got shorts in these folks that's your fuel that's your exit
it's called whale exit please watch at least for five percent of your money
spent sprinkle some of it in things not options but the underlying where you
could just get in sync with it watch what's going up look what worked today
look what worked at the end of a week what worked that week and then after May
11th it'll be very easy for you. I'm trying to get, I know after this call, after May 11th,
you're all going to be dumping a lot of money in low beta and interest rate sensitive
because you'll see after we cycle through our April 8th low,
70% of tech on a 52-week low.
You'll be either shorting that or buying this stuff or doing both.
But you've got to watch what's working, folks.
Don't listen to me.
I'm not telling you any names to be involved in.
But you've got to watch the price.
And the big dogs are signaling they're barking.
And when you have the lower beta accelerating lower,
I mean, when you have the higher beta,
the micro strategy versus Bitcoin, the software versus the hardware, you look at the software denominated in SMH, it's never been weaker. Ever. Look at the
quarterly timeframes. Look at the six-month timeframes. I don't care.
Go back as far as it goes, July of 2001.
We're at the lowest ever valuation of software.
What's that telling you?
AI is making software irrelevant.
It's too complicated.
It's too expensive.
It's too much capital involved.
You don't need that money.
And then the Chinese large language models, how well are they working?
So you've got to respect price.
You can't be the bag holder for people exiting their positions.
And we're talking about in the trillions, we're talking the most overvalued market.
Remember, we're 140% more when you add in crypto.
We're at 139 in 2000.
We peaked at 105 in October of 2007.
And the crash of 1929 was only
89. David, I
would say like one sector
that perhaps people
should be paying attention to is commodities.
Maybe
not some, I mean watch it for trading
absolutely, but it is anti
dollar and the dollar is at
a big high.
So people might be shocked at the rally that gold has been having over the last two years.
How about natural gas over the last two days?
I haven't checked that out.
How's that doing?
50% in two days.
That's crazy, man.
Do you like some of that volatility, friend?
of that volatility friend so so check this out right so i remember from 2022 right early 2022
So check this out, right?
to early 2024 orange juice went up well over 200 percent in that time frame
that was honestly crazy i think it went up like 250%. And then right after that, gold started really going crazy.
And then you also have silver and stuff like that too.
And now you're talking about NatGas.
Maybe energy follows through.
But I think like some of the volatility that we've seen in crypto is starting to pour out.
It's moved. Smart people have moved.
Yeah, they're starting to play in other sectors, and I don't blame them.
That's all I'm saying. Don't be orthodox.
Look what's working and give a little capital, give a little eyeball, give a little attention.
You think it's helpful that Bitcoin is pinned on CNBC and you
can see the chart at every second? That's not
good. People are seeing it stable
and they're writing more calls.
They're just writing more, then you've got BITK,
WNTR,
the long Bitcoin short
calls and the short Bitcoin
and short puts.
You have volatility smothering.
And you can't move it. Not enough chaos traders. They're moving.
Oil doesn't have much upside because it's too big. We have 6.5 billion people on planet Earth whose currencies are
in free fall, all-time lows, or near it. They're seeing
massive inflation. Their economies are slowing down.
So you could see if gold is strong and silver was 109 to gold
and it's normally 30 to 50, silver was too cheap.
That thing blew apart.
These are all end signs.
When you go from oil in leadership to gold in leadership,
which is 10% of oil, from an extraction per year basis.
And then you go into silver.
This is end of phase.
But there's a lot of volatility.
Silver vol is 70s.
You had two back-to-back double-digit days, then a 10.
I mean, you're getting a lot of vol.
A lot of people are interested.
There's 100, one of my people said, there's 120% carry
in silver. So she's already starting to short it because she's making money, so much money on,
on the carry. Okay. So if you watch what's working, you watch where your co-traders are going,
you'll win. Don't be, don't be, don't be B'd by the bots or the B-O-U-G-H-T
by the people that are bought to only limit yourself.
Wabi's been talking the last couple days
about there are other things working.
Look what's working.
Don't knock the tree down with the wrong side of the ax.
Flip it around.
Go to where there's volatility.
Go to where there's no liquidity, and you
could move things, you and your friends.
Yeah, David, so I also have a saying, right,
just like how you had your saying.
So you know, like, bodybuilding
and stuff, right?
Unfortunately, I don't, but I'll take your word
for it. So, like, you know, biceps and
triceps. That I know.
Alright, alright, so check this out, right?
Effectively, you're saying
don't try and get by or you'll get dealt with and trapped or that's right or even worse or even
worse you'll be quatted and pecked at you know okay how many more you got in pecs so you need
so you need to watch the Cavs. Oh my gosh.
You got them all.
You got them all.
I've been using that for years, man.
You gotta write it down so you can say it faster.
I even
threw that over to
Peter Schiff when he was on here
a couple weeks back, man. I've been using
this as kind of like an icebreaker
for a long time
now, and it always...
There will be a time
when the cycle comes back
where crypto
is the dominant chaos asset.
But it'll be from much lower.
So why don't you go with the
money's going? Why don't you go
with your crew is? Why are you letting
your crew leave and
leave you behind join the peloton you can run over all these things yeah um i've been discussing
intel here for the last couple of weeks now but you haven't been discussing nvidia because
it had no shot of going up 150 percent right i yeah and and I think Hood outperforms NVIDIA
for a long time,
probably moving forward.
I think NVIDIA
and its story, at least for now,
is done, and it kind of gives
the way for some of these other companies,
even if it's short-lived, right?
It's not short-lived. It's going to
release a lot of liquidity
in the trillions, right? You're not short-lived. It's going to release a lot of liquidity in the trillions,
right? You're not going to have to get together a couple of people to get a $30 million coin to
move. You're going to get trillions leaking out of Mama N. Trillions. We never talk about the
company starting with T because we love this platform. David, do you think QE and ZERP happen over the next, like, two and a half years?
A hundred.
Well, let me modify that.
I think long-term rates go all the way down.
Okay.
All right.
So, we may not get to ZERP because we're so strong, but that's the whole point of the 50-year mortgage.
But that's the whole point of the 50-year mortgage.
John F. Kennedy started Operation Twist in 61, I think,
and the San Francisco Fed wrote a paper on it on the 50th anniversary.
And what that was is they issued less bonds,
because that was when we were still on gold standard,
fewer bonds so that there would be less supply,
so mortgages would be more affordable. Our deficit is down quite a bit. Our trade deficit has dropped
a trillion dollars. That's like 3% of GDP. We're collecting massive amounts of taxes
on the income that people are making from the GDP. And then as rates go down, we have less interest expense.
And so when you get mortgage rates falling,
you're destroying something called duration.
The average life of the mortgage shrinks.
And if you've got an insurance company with a 10 year policy
and the mortgage goes from an 8 year to a 4 year
you've got to replace that
you've got to buy the treasuries
I have one chart
that one of my people produced
it uses the move index
which is essentially the VIX of the treasury yield curve
it's the implied volatility of the 2 year theyear, and the bond at a 20% ratio.
And the 10-year has a double because that was where mortgages were hedged
when Harley Bassman from Merrill Lynch at the time created it.
And if you look at it right now, it peaked at 140 on December 18th
when Powell did that ridiculous hundredth basis point cut of two years ago.
It peaked on Liberation at 140.
It's down 10% today to 59.
It's got $3 from a death cross on a monthly basis.
We're losing volatility in mortgages.
And that's going to mean people start to buy treasuries at some point.
And we're going to get the curve to invert massively because everyone is steeped the curve,
and the banks by their structure are steeped the curve.
So the paying trade is inversion.
But it will be so stimulative and the economy is so strong.
And remember, housing is labor-intensive.
The plumber, the electrician, the carpenter, the concrete guy,
all these other things.
You go to the diner.
One person is worth $125 million market cap at NVIDIA.
That's 675 homes.
What are you going to do?
Build a home in the morning and then another one in the afternoon
to get $175 filled by the end of the year?
We're going to have long-term rates lower.
Japan is a bad joke.
We had a four basis point rate
on the Japanese 40-year,
4.1 10 years ago.
That rate went up 100 times.
Besson called them yesterday
and they said,
stop screwing around.
And the Japanese 20-year
was down 25 basis points overnight.
We are going to run out of duration.
Everyone thinks we have too much. We're going to run out of duration. Everyone thinks we have too much.
We're going to run out because America is going to collect so many taxes
from our incredible growth
that it's just going to drag the rates down, the dollar up.
We also have the KREs not too far from price discovery.
The KRE trade, right?
Yeah, it looks like the IWM,
and usually, at least this has been the trend,
when the KRE also starts going up a lot,
that's usually...
Versus the KBE, versus the money centers.
Yeah, it's usually indicative of,
correct me if I'm wrong,
but KRE going up means that, like,
more dubious speculation is...
You could call it speculation, or you could say that
lower expected rates are making them more profitable.
Yeah, yes.
It's a two-way...
Because lower rates ultimately helps
these regionals, because the people
that are borrowing, that are under stress, will be able to get
lower rates. They don't
issue swaps.
They're not going to get screwed when the curve gets inverted like the big banks.
That's going to be a big problem for these guys.
They need a steeper curve for their swaps.
That's what causes the Fed to cut.
So the point is, if the Fed cuts 50, let's say they cut 100,
where's the 30-year amortization schedule fixed floating rate? The 5-1. You're
talking about 4.5. So you're going to have so much activity, so many taxes collected.
And then what happens when the NASDAQ gets a little sloppy? That's what happened. That's
caused part of the crash of 87. Stocks went up so much when those rates fell 6.8% from 1984 to 1986.
The stock market goes up 150%.
People start selling.
When it got stalled after Greenspan came in, they collected too many taxes.
And they didn't cut taxes.
We had a huge deficit.
We went to a surplus by the time we got to Clinton.
If you lose your deficit too quickly, it's very dollar supportive.
It's very bad for the exporters.
So we will get lower long-term rates.
We'll get a flattening of the curve.
Everyone should watch the five-year curve to the 10-year curve.
Note, it's called the fight.
That's basically measuring how mortgages are hedged.
When you get a flattener,
that's telling you you're getting more prepayments. You're getting more money going into the
disposable income of the family. Do you think it's a shock that retail is doing so well?
Not the XLY. I'm talking about the XRT, the actual companies in retail. They're doing
game busters because look at five below. It's not even the gangbusters. Because look at five below.
It's not even in the S&P.
It's just five below, 5% below.
It's highest monthly close.
The money is going to the Main Street.
This is the plan.
Trump tricked everyone to dump their mortgages.
They were $599.
He took it at $621.
And today he says, never mind.
Never mind.
His goal is to get mortgage rates down.
And frankly, if they've got to stop issuing bonds, that's what the 50-year mortgage is about.
Instead of having the government borrow long duration to meet the needs of pensions and insurance companies,
to meet their long-term target investments, the American 50-year mortgage,
particularly if they let it become portable.
Let the American consumer take on the debt,
not the government.
Let the consumer buy what they want with that debt.
You make yourself a much more resilient economy.
But please, watch what's going up and try listening less to news
and watch what's really going up.
There's such a glut of oil in the world.
We're getting along with Venezuela.
Hamas is going to do it.
Who would have thought Hamas actually is going to disarm?
It looks like it's going to happen.
They're voting on it.
They see they're not getting the money from Iran.
They know Iran's not going to be around long.
So they figure, let's just drop our weapons, let's drop our uniforms,
and let's be in the new process.
It's not going to be a kinetic process. It's going to be a political economic process.
There's a hundred billion going into the Gaza to make it into what Lebanon used to be.
They used to call it the Arab south of France. That went to Dubai.
Now you'll be able to go to the Gaza and these luxury hotels, jobs.
Everything's getting better.
You've got to watch what's
going on in oil. We are still at
zero. We're at the very
low levels.
So you've got to only
not watch Bitcoin. It's too heavy.
It's being led lower
by strategy
and some of these altss and there are so many
things that Wabi will be pointing out because now you're open to it yeah Intel
yeah but that's intact how about all the smaller cap names if the small cap
index is up nine aren't some of those companies up 25 30 you can make a lot of
money moving these small caps or the micro caps. It's not my thing.
Do your own work, but watch what's going up because people are short these things
to buy the big stuff. I would be doing that 85% of the time, not individually. I'd buy a short
whole basket. And how much money did that make you? It made you a fortune. And now it's unwinding.
It's got to unwind. You got to undo it. Buy what's working. Ignore the
rest. Forget the earnings. Those worked. But now Druckenmiller told you. He top-ticked it. It lost
three billion dollars. He said, but I'm protected. The earnings are good. And then the stock goes
down. Then they write down the earnings. But then the earnings are good. But then the stock goes
down and they write down the earnings. Because the earnings estimates are only what the company tells them, and it's only from their customers.
And Microsoft has not canceled the orders that we all know that they will. They can't get the
electricity, and they can't get the funding. Look at Oracle. It's sad. It's down by 50%
since the last earnings report. Watch the price, and watch how NASDAQ accelerates lower like .com eventually.
And you'll make a lot of money shorting the garbage.
And you'll buy a lot of money shorting what's going up.
And right now, Bitcoin's in no man's land.
But Michael Strach is telling you something.
It's a big problem.
That's my story, and I'm sticking with it, buddy.
I don't know how to follow that up, man.
Small cap, Josh, if you guys have anything to say feel free to do so um i'll let you i'll let you go josh no hit it hit it
i was just gonna ask uh david kind of you know i i it's interesting like growing up and
learning the markets and just how things work, right?
Like when yields are typically high, you're supposed to be, I wouldn't say you're supposed to be bearish, but that's a bearish signal for gold and silver, right?
But I guess it's different because the yields are high due to, you know, decreasing trust.
No, you're right.
No, no, you're right.
High and falling is a disaster.
Rates going up, you can short the treasury, make money. It's a negative cost of capital to buy
risk assets. But when rates are high, it's still fine. But when rates are high and falling,
you get doubled into returns on risk-free and the money gets vacuumed in. This Nikkei went from
6,000 to 53. Their yields went from 4 to 400. That is a thousand
times our performance, their
Nikkei versus their bonds.
That money's coming out.
Do you see the United States
at some point
coming in and having to bail Japan out?
No, no, no. They're choosing
to drive the rates up because their banks
are loving life.
The yield curve control is like the bond market's
completely melting down there.
But they're letting it, and the President told them to stop.
They own half of all the debt.
They've been throttling down the QE.
They don't have that much long paper.
The 20-year, I'll put it up in the nest,
the 20-year was down 24 basis points yesterday.
Where is that?
I posted it on MySpace this morning.
Coming in from, here it is.
I'm posting it and then I'll try to swing it up.
Yeah, here it is.
You should put, anyone that uses TradeView,
use, just make a sheet on yields,
the Japanese yield curve.
We're down 24.8 basis points on the 20.
The 40 was down 15.
The 30 was down 19 too.
And they're saying, oh, the 10-year was only down 853.
That's because Besson told them, get freaking control of your curve.
You're hurting us.
Do you really want to deal with a Democrat?
And I am a lifelong Democrat. But you really want to deal with a Democrat? And I am a lifelong Democrat.
But you really want to deal with Kamala Harris,
dealing with the Chinese?
The Chinese will run over you.
Meanwhile, you have Takeishi,
which one of my Japanese followers told us
means basically bull market.
Crazy.
Takeishi.
She said, snap elections, I want to get control. So they sold the stuff off. Besson calls them yesterday and says, Takeishi. She said, snap elections, I want to get control.
So they sold the stuff off.
Besson calls them yesterday and says, get control.
He got control.
Because Trump says, I need to win or I'm going to be impeached.
Then we'll lose the White House.
And then you'll have people who didn't stand up for you
and aren't protecting you from China
that's needing to get more imperialistic
because they don't have the growth.
So when people see higher rates for very thin traded stuff, that was a spoof.
Watch them go lower.
Watch the five-year, ten-year.
The most important curve because it's against $13 trillion of involuntary model-driven buying.
That's my thing. I'm in touch, directly or indirectly, with over a trillion dollars
of mortgage investors. And none of them are worried about refinancing. None of them are
worried about a flattening yield curve. And none of them are hedged. So as you get tighter
mortgages and higher prepayments,
and we did get up to 183 today,
according to mortgage bank associations,
we're at 18% purchase as those things.
That's what Trump told you he wants.
He said, buy stock, you bought stock.
He said, buy bonds, buy bonds.
Now he's saying buy mortgages.
I don't want to fight with it.
But when rates are high and going higher, who cares? You could short the treasury and make money on it.
So you make money on your long and you make money on your short. It's when treasuries have high
yields and they're coming down, they get double digit returns. That's very compelling. And aren't
people selling their, remember, a lot of old people own a lot of stock.
And a lot of people got hurt in 2022.
But this time, it's now three years closer to their retirement.
A lot of people are going to be selling stock into a falling market and buying bonds.
Because it's guaranteed.
And whether they buy a note that's two years or a bond, we don't care.
If the base rate goes down, that rate goes down,
unless you're steepening.
And I don't think we're going to be steepening very much.
Because if you're steepening,
then you give the market share to the adjustable rate, and then the whole banking system loses their paper.
And then you've got to replace it by buying a treasury.
So we're exhausted in terms of the steepening,
other than the longest piece of paper
that Druckenmiller
can shoot out with Larry Fink and Jamie Dimon and Rubini and Taled and gross. The 510, it's flat
for nine months. That's reality. That's the mortgage engine. And when you flatten that,
five basis points, you're going to have mortgages at new three-year lows.
And it's just going to be momentum buying.
Anyone not buying mortgages around the world, they're crazy.
You're getting 2% more than the Treasury.
Where the president says, I want to tighten those spreads.
So if you're watching Home Depot and Lowe's and ITB and now these things going up,
and you see every week.
So I'll give you one of the trades that I put on that tells you this in real time.
There are two mortgage funds.
I'm not giving any advice.
You've got to do your own research.
But in general, MBB is a mortgage fund,
and it's got an average life longer than the on-the-run mortgage,
the typical current mortgage rate.
And then you have another one, JMBS.
And by the way, MBB is an ETF.
There's also a company, MBB.
So don't buy the MBB company.
It's the MBB I want you to research.
That's the ETF.
And then there's JMBS.
That's Janus's mortgage-backed security.
And they have more of the discounted mortgages,
the $2.585 mortgages,
the $3.90 mortgages, the ones trading at a discount. So when you see JMBS going up faster
than MBB, and you can't just look at the stock price, you've got to look at the NAV that they
report, because these prices can shift up to a percent. So either on a daily, what's the NAV differential,
or at a weekly, because that scrapes out that 1%.
When you see JMBS going up faster than MBB,
and it gets a little less of a yield,
but when the price goes up more,
that's telling you there's more prepayments.
And an $85 mortgage prepays,
they put $100 worth of cash,
because it's not a restructuring like a
corporate trading $85 where they say, we'll buy you out for $85. It's someone canceling a mortgage
early, putting $100 in the account for an $85 on the NAV market value. When you see JMBS leading
MBV, it's telling you mortgage spreads are tightening, prepayment speeds are picking up.
And that's when you'll start to see the longer treasury. So you have the IEF, which is an eight and a half year. Then you'll start to
see TLH go up faster, eventually TLT and then EDV and then ZROC. But you want to watch these
mortgages as they have a relative behavior. A faster rising JMBS means speeds are picking up. A slower rising means they're
either stable or falling. And all that means is more money in the pockets of individual
homeowners. And that's what the president said he wants to try to win the midterms.
And I'm not betting against him. I just want to know what's going up. I don't know what
will go up. I want to know what's going up. I don't know what will go up. I want to know what's
going up today. What won up today? Maybe it'll go up tomorrow. Yeah, that's like the technology
built within stocks, right? To the American economy, NGU tech, number go up, price follows,
and then fundamentals. Because the liquidity is saying the market is smarter than everybody else.
The market is running over the shorts and saying you don't know what you're doing.
This company relying on my subsidized capital will outperform other things.
Get out of the way.
Capital knows better.
You have periods of decoherence where it stops accelerating and then it starts falling faster
and the earnings are falling
because the market's saying, you're not as serious.
There's too much capital here.
You're not gonna make the money that everybody thinks.
It's slowed down.
Watch where the money's going every single day.
Look at the new high list.
Look at the IBD new high list.
Look at the concentration of where things are.
And then after May 11, your job is going to be much easier. Because once you wipe away that spoof from the Liberation Day
plunge, which incidentally, my podcast on April 21, we said, that's it. Straight up. Thanks,
straight up. April 21. I do an Apple and a Spotify free podcast, and it's episode six.
free podcast, and it's episode six. The point is, we have falling mortgage rates that are a few
basis points above where they were at the three-year lows, and a president says, I'm going
to do whatever I have to, if it means invading Greenland or if it means not invading Greenland.
I'm going to get those rates down, And that's what market participants in the equity markets are telling you.
And it'll show up in mortgages.
And after May 11th, when we wipe away last year's spoof,
you'll see all of these things in Techville.
52-week lows.
They're not there because of that plunge.
It's like a great trick.
It's like someone planned it to trick people into saying,
oh, it's not that bad.
We're like 20% above our 52-week low.
And then Wally Coyote.
Those lows evaporate overnight.
From April 21 until May 11th.
That's 20 days.
That's 15 trading days.
Goodbye.
You see the population of growth of tech and cyclicals just roll over. And all that money
is going to go into the low beta. And what happens if too much money goes into low beta?
It makes low beta high beta. It makes too much money going in, they'll widen the volatilities
to get those virtual shares. And then the companies say, you know, why are we paying all this in,
you know, in salaries? paying all this in salaries?
Why don't we start giving them stock grants? Because their stock is going up for the first
time ever better than anything else. And then they cut their labor costs. They become growth
companies. Then their multiples aren't so stretched. Let's use our stock price going up to not buy any
more shares in. Let's let the market do that and let's grow our business. What did Costco announce today?
They're going into Home Depot's business.
They're going to be doing appliances,
I think with a $100 installation fee.
I think that was the ad that I saw.
That's growth.
You think the market didn't know that
when it went up $100 in a few days?
Now you have Walmart at an all-time high.
Costco is the second.
What happens when the biggest two
in the sector go up?
The sector goes up, and you squeeze the shorts.
TJ Maxx,
Ross Stores, Burlington,
that's two and a quarter trillion
between the five of them.
Melting up.
Melting up all-time highs. Go stand in front
of that freight train when mortgage rates are right now over 6, 620, on their way to 420.
Remember, we lost 192 basis points in 10 months and three weeks from October 19,
2023, which caused the Fed to go to an easing bias on November 1st because Citibank would have gone out of business.
They were running out of cash flow.
People, their swaps
were getting, people back away
from them. Their market cap was
4.15%
of the total outstanding assets
which at the time was 2.425
trillion. The Fed
only cares about the banks. They don't care
about labor. They don't care about labor. They don't care about
inflation. Those are daughter mandates. If you have bank instability, you've got big problems.
Now we have a lot less of a big problem because they're so small. But you're hearing all these
examples of what's working, and it's just going to work more and more and more away from tech
and crypto. And if you see that, at least you heard it and follow your eyes,
because the price that you could close out
at the end of the day is a real price.
A price that you're told,
oh, it'll go up by next week or next month or next year.
Or if you just have patience,
Bitcoin, which was 69 and inflation adjusted,
it's 80, don't worry, it'll go to a high.
Well, what happens when it takes out these levels?
What happens when MicroStrategy leads it lower?
What happens when NASDAQ finally
listens to Wabi and says,
if we're not going up, then we're going to go down.
You'll accommodate more weakness in Bitcoin,
further weakness in microstrategy.
It becomes organized like a freight train.
David, I have one last question for you before
because I've got to hop off here. I want to know
what I can do to help you get on a space with Peter Schiff.
It will never happen. It will never happen. I waited once. It was a joke. I waited once
with the phone on, with a request to speak. 35 people. He will not let me on the phone.
He won't let me on.
Weren't you on that space, David?
I never was asked to speak.
Oh, no.
That space wasn't his.
It was someone else.
And when Bitcoin Tina starts going crazy, he wouldn't let me speak.
And this is a guy who would call me on.
He took a job as a junior analyst at my old firm
Tina?
yeah, afterward
an unpaid intern
you guys know each other
yeah, I used to let him call me, he'd get me on the phone for 3-4 hours
I'm like
oh man, the lore is deep
I'm cleaning the house
I'm organizing paper, he's out there
trying to get me to explain how mortgages work.
You worked on a credit desk that has basically Milken legacy, that desk.
Because colleagues of Milken had worked on that desk.
And I'm trying to explain.
He doesn't get it.
But whatever.
And he said, he'll tell me his name.
I said, do me a favor.
Don't tell me your name.
Because someday I'll be mad and I'll say it and I don't want to dox you.
You know, because he doesn't want to be called by his name.
He doesn't want people, whatever.
So I respected that.
And I was glad because he really got under my skin.
And I said, lose my phone number.
And I blocked him.
I won't take a call from him now.
I don't care that he insulted me.
I don't give one hoot.
It doesn't bother me.
I have one follower who told me, and he said I could say this.
He's a special needs kid.
I shook him out of the cult.
He closed out.
He's making money trading other things.
And his child is protected for life because he will never believe a story
if the price doesn't confirm
I could take a thousand kicks in the octagon
in my cojones
to help a special needs person
I didn't care about that
but by saying that
he blocked me from being able to explain
to people just 1%
daylight in other things that might be working.
You show tremendous respect to everybody.
Okay?
You let people of all opinions get whatever they say,
and you let other people counter it.
But this guy, Bitcoin, he said, I'm not entitled to speak.
You're a little kid working on a desk.
I'm not entitled to. You call me to explain how
markets work. I'm not entitled. You just, you're crazy. I know his position. I know his holdings.
I know it all because he went through it all, but I'm not a doctor, but I was afraid the name
might leak out. It didn't because I don't know it. I didn't want to know it. I know where he lives.
leak out. It didn't. Because I didn't know it. I didn't want to know it. I know where he lives.
But the point is, when you shut someone down, you're afraid of what they have to say. It'll
shake your confidence. And I believe everyone needs two eyeballs when possible, two ears,
two antennas. You need symmetry. I could make a case that Bitcoin's right to 500,000.
If you would have the Fed cut 50 basis points at each of the next four meetings,
the dollar would be at 85,
a Bitcoin would be 500 grand.
They would kill everybody.
And then it would go down 90.
Then it would go down four decibels.
But that's not the base case.
That's not what we're set up.
We're seeing loss of momentum
in trillions and trillions and trillions of dollars
worth of equities.
And the alts are melting. And Solana this morning was terrible. loss of momentum in trillions and trillions and trillions of dollars worth of equities.
And the alts are melting.
And Solana this morning was terrible.
XRP and ETH was almost at a new low from the October 9th event.
He will never get on the same.
Because I know how markets work.
I know how commodities work. And I would highlight the history that he and I both know.
I was doing silver in the 70s,
and I was there for the 92% drop on Silver Tuesday, March 27th.
It wasn't in one day, but that's they declared force majeure
because the Hunt brothers and the Saudis conspired to corner the silver market,
and they flew plain loads of silver into vaults in Switzerland.
And they caused a short squeeze.
And these rich Texans never went to jail.
They should have been in jail.
But they were rich, whatever.
And then gold fell 75%.
Silver fell 92%.
I know about rates. I know about currency.
He sells a newsletter.
And it's a newsletter based on fear. He won't speak about currency. He sells a newsletter.
And it's a newsletter based on fear.
He won't speak to me.
He won't let me speak.
How many times does he say,
can I come up by message?
I'm not helpful to him.
I'm not going to help him sell more ads.
Like today he put up.
One of my recommendations is doubled. So be careful, since I printed the newsletter.
Please.
So, don't count on it.
I'll go anywhere.
I'll talk to anyone, as long as they're respectful.
And even if they're not that respectful, right?
I'll go anywhere.
I have a model.
It's very clear.
We have the move index, the treasury volatility index.
That's a place where you have a lot of deflation.
Equities are a lot of deflation.
By the way, Kathy Wood says she invests in long-duration assets.
She doesn't know math.
She invests in negative-duration assets.
When those are going up, it sucks in all the liquidity.
Treasuries can't go down in price. But when treasuries are going down, she goes down.
When treasury yields are going down, she goes down.
She's going to get slaughtered.
What we have is a world where we go through cycles.
And we have $40 trillion of equity beyond the GDP.
We've bottomed in the Y2K episode at $7 trillion, which is 70% of GDP, 14.7.
In the dot-com on 369 on March 6, 2009, these dates all work like Bitcoin, November 10, 21, 11
plus 10 equals 21. That was the 69 Bitcoin peak. The S&P 500, 666 on 3-6-9, March 6-9.
66 on 369, March 69.
43% of the S&P.
The S&P was 43% of GDP.
With 2.4.
We're 100 more than ever before.
That rhymes.
That's all deflation, folks.
That equity, that's going into fixed income.
And since credit is so tight, it'll go into mortgages.
But then that goes into treasuries.
And you'll flatten the curve, and you will really hurt the big banks.
And then they'll have to buy the treasuries as their mortgages prepaid.
And we'll find out we don't have enough treasuries.
There's a shortage of duration.
If Powell wasn't cutting so aggressively and ending the QT and then putting on QE,
the dollar would be much higher, and tech would never be where it is
because their earnings wouldn't be there.
They wouldn't have the free cash flow from the conversion.
Europe is a disaster and they're not cutting.
Why?
They want a strong currency.
They want to make sure the U.S. has more inflation
than every other cycle.
Maybe it's political.
Maybe they want inflation here through the election.
Who knows? They're not cutting. They will. maybe it's political maybe they want inflation here through the election who knows
they're not cutting, they will
equity and volatility
are places where you have
negative duration and the move index
this is a chart I put out for my subscribers
move index today
is 300% of what it was after the dot-com era,
adjusted for the balance sheet,
and that caused a 10-year and 6-month sub-trend inflation cycle.
It only ended because of COVID.
We don't even know if it would have been worse.
We have so much more people short duration
because when you have people short the calls,
you understand when volatility is low
and there's a lot of open interest,
the dealers are short gamma.
Whether it goes up, they're short,
and they got to buy in.
It goes down, they're long, they got to dump.
We have the
greatest compression and positioning short treasury volatility of all times. And Powell
says, don't worry, hire for longer. Sell your call scheme. Sell the calls. Make the money.
The banks are selling calls. Back in the day, Bank of America would call a primary dealer and they'd say, can
you take a billion dollars of calls? They want to juice their earnings. The structure
of the system is short the greatest amount of duration in history. It's not going to
start until mortgage spreads tighten, until mortgage rates go lower, until prepayment
speeds go crazy. So when you see JMBS beating MBB,
when you see Lowe's and Home Depot kicking ass on the QQQ,
when you see homebillers doubling every 12 months,
when you see Rocket and United and PennyMac just going up,
overtaking the banks, you're seeing the transition.
But everything I'm talking about, you'll be able
to see before you have to deploy a dollar.
Deploy your money with what's
working. Don't deploy money with what sounds good.
And don't stick around for five
years.
David, this has been
a great conversation.
Now that I
do have to wrap up here.
I'm going to be doing an open spaces in about 30 minutes.
I've got to walk the dog again.
If you don't mind, if anybody wants, just click or follow me or whatever,
and you'll get the notification.
And we'll continue this because today was a very important day.
After the Greenland Taco, Microsoft stayed down.
That's news. That's information.
And the biotech was up 4%.
So it was 6% more than Microsoft.
I'm going to have some tacos right now.
What kind of tacos? Chicken, fajita.
Bison tacos
have you ever seen Lawman?
so there was an episode
that I saw yesterday
about this
Ali Larder who's very attractive
she's got a gorgeous daughter
and she's about to go to school
and she's got to go in for her interview
and she's not academically oriented
so she's telling her about this and that
and she says, Buffalo
is bison.
And then her daughter couldn't process that comment.
That's funny, man.
Thanks for coming on, man.
I try to come when I can.
You're just so
open and allowing people to express themselves.
You have to consider.
I'm not saying I'm right, although I'm very confident, but I'm not saying I am.
But if I'm right, just think you let people access information that would let them shake out the latency of loss to get into what's working sooner.
Yeah.
Because you are open to letting people hear that.
You get the credit.
Yeah, it's like a town hall.
It's like an open forum discussion.
Yeah, but it's symmetric.
You're not closing one ear and one eye and saying only up,
and that takes a lot.
Yeah, that's real.
Thanks, David.
I appreciate it.
Thanks for coming on, man.
Thank you, Small Cap Sniper, for also coming on.
All the other speakers, thank you, thank you, thank you.
Shout out to Josh also for coming on here.
Max, Prometheus, Matt, all the other speakers, thank you, thank you.
And also to all of you that are listening right now,
live in the audience or listening to the recording.
But guys, if this is your first time tuning in
and you've enjoyed the last three hours plus of content here on the stream my name is wabi i'm the host of the
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