Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. you Oh Oh Strong desire, ready to defend it
Oh, so I want fire, leaders rising high
The world to come in Oh We're so hard and then we're going to do it.
I still have no need anymore.
It's not going to be so high up, so high up, crazy, sweet, sweet, sweet, sweet, sweet, sweet, sweet, sweet, sweet, sweet, sweet, sweet, sweet, sweet, sweet, sweet, sweet, sweet, sweet, sweet, sweet, sweet, sweet, sweet, sweet, sweet, sweet, sweet, sweet, sweet, sweet, sweet, sweet, sweet, sweet, sweet, sweet, sweet, sweet, sweet, sweet, sweet, sweet, sweet, sweet, sweet, sweet, sweet, sweet, sweet, sweet, sweet, sweet, sweet, sweet, sweet, sweet, sweet, sweet, sweet, sweet, sweet, sweet, sweet, sweet, sweet, sweet, sweet, sweet, sweet, sweet, sweet, sweet, sweet, sweet, sweet, sweet, sweet, sweet, sweet, sweet, sweet, sweet, sweet, sweet, sweet, sweet, sweet, sweet, sweet, sweet, sweet, sweet, sweet, sweet, sweet, sweet, sweet, sweet, sweet, sweet, sweet, sweet, sweet, sweet, sweet, sweet, sweet, sweet, sweet, sweet, sweet, sweet, sweet, sweet, sweet, sweet, sweet, sweet, sweet, sweet, sweet, sweet, sweet, sweet, sweet, sweet, sweet, sweet, sweet, sweet, sweet, sweet, sweet, sweet, sweet, sweet, sweet, sweet, sweet, sweet, sweet, sweet, sweet, sweet, sweet, sweet, sweet, sweet, sweet, sweet, sweet, sweet, sweet, sweet, sweet, sweet, sweet, sweet, sweet, sweet, sweet, sweet, sweet, sweet, sweet, sweet, sweet, sweet, sweet, sweet, sweet, sweet, sweet, sweet, sweet, sweet, sweet, sweet, sweet, sweet, sweet, sweet, sweet, sweet, sweet, sweet, sweet, sweet, sweet, sweet, sweet, sweet, sweet, sweet, sweet, sweet, sweet, sweet, sweet, sweet, sweet, sweet, sweet, sweet, sweet, sweet, sweet, sweet, sweet, sweet, sweet, sweet, sweet, sweet, sweet, I so
so Oh, my God. Oh Thank you. Hey, what's going on guys welcome back to market talk brought to you by bb i'm your host wabi
today is nvidia earnings insane volatility from nvidia let me tell you i think uh nvidia gapped down four percent and now uh
it's up four percent almost five percent after hours um we had a nasty spike to the upside and
the downside today on btc i think we gapped down by like um i think it was like by a thousand points or something like that
and then on the 15 minute we immediately uh we immediately v reversed so uh getting close to
these uh local range highs on btc and soul man solana solana solana let me tell you man that
thing uh it's probably gonna tread towards macro range highs given the price action that we're seeing.
This thing is just relentless.
Anytime it's been getting under $200, it immediately has started to reverse back to these local range highs between $205 and $210.
And I really think the focus now is on uh is on solana now rather than ethereum
you're starting to see these uh treasury companies come on about and i think once we see solana cross
220 you're going to see anything that was trending on chain on soul start to get attention again and
i think we're in for some exciting times so i got donnie up here i have chill up here for the first time and
geez i think it's been uh a couple weeks maybe even more than a month or something like that
man but chill welcome back man looking forward uh looking forward to this discussion with you man
and uh we're gonna go ahead and get started guys i'm thinking today it's probably just going to be a short space
probably no more than 45 minutes um as i do think once again that uh the real discussion to be had
on these spaces is probably going to come once you actually have eth above 5k and soul actually
going into uh price discovery but um we do have some more firms trying to raise some money to buy yet another billion plus dollars of Sol.
So I think right now there's a cumulative lead, there's like just over 2 billion, maybe like 2.3 billion looking to be raised by some of these capital firms to strike deals, to buy Solana tokens straight from the foundation, I believe.
So that is going to be insane.
And one thing I do want to say is that since the start of the cycle, we've had these main characters come in and out of the market.
And we finally have someone that is directly from TradFi but is also related to somebody from
the crypto Market Tom Lee is actually the brother uh from the founder of uh of uh Litecoin Charlie
Lee which is uh incredible really you would think that Vitalik would come back as a main character, but I really think that that man cares less about
this industry right now. But I won't get too deep into that, man. But look,
it's going to be an exciting next couple of weeks. These weird flushes that we've been having on the lower time frame, it's meant to shake
people out of their bags. And on-chain is a completely different market than majors.
But once majors actually shift and start making higher highs, I truly think everything on-chain
is going to come back with a snap of a finger. And we're going to go ahead and get started,
doing well. Welcome back to the show. Thank you all so much, those that are tuning in right now
live, and those that might be listening to the recording. So if you guys can go on ahead and
show some love to the space, best way you guys can do that is by clicking the spaces tab. Once
you guys click the spaces tab right above our profile pictures, you'll see a nice link that says x.com slash i slash spaces.
You guys already know what to do.
And we're going to get straight down to business.
So I'm going to pass it on over to Donnie.
Donnie, what an absolute banger post, man, that you made yesterday. That 2017
fractal on Bitcoin got almost 2,000 likes, bro. That is insane, dude. That is insane.
You don't even see that from, like, accounts that have hundreds of thousands of followers.
that have hundreds of thousands of followers.
And, you know, me and Donnie were here on the show on Monday saying,
This is a complete exaggeration from the market.
I think ETH was trading at like $4200 or something like that. And Tom Lee called
the bottom. He said the bottom is going to be in the next couple of hours. And you have some
unks, dude. I'm going to call them unks. The same unks that fighted the FTX low, the same unks
that called for a recession for 2023, the same unks that took all coin paid shill deals
in 21 turned macro LARPs in 22 and 23. They all said that it's cooked and they're saying that the
cycle top is going to be in in six weeks. It's still insane, dude. The market is not going to
top in six weeks. That's just complete absurdity. Complete absurdity.
But nonetheless, man, Donnie, we have an insane setup once again.
Another banger call here made on the show.
BitBoy is out of the Gulag.
And if history is any indication,
the BitBoy indicator getting out of the gulag and if history is any indication the bit boy indicator getting out
of the gulag has a 100 hit rate of solana making uh making highs imminently imminently bro but uh
how are you feeling man it's gonna be uh it's gonna be a great time man what's up hey bro thanks for the awesome intro yeah um the market is finally
looking to complete this uh annoying correction that we've had ever since uh the fomc kind of
sorry the jackson hole fake out to the upside um yeah the i'm really excited about this current
local setup which i can't get my eyes off it right now um but i guess i'll start
with that fractal that i posted uh last night just to kind of give a premise to what i'm viewing
over the next you know few weeks and actually it could start from this week i really have this gut
feeling that even if we do end up wicking one more time lower than the current like wick low
i think we're going to close the week above 112 to 113
which basically just means that that wick low even if it does come it's meaningless right as
long as we close the week above 112 113 then i think that move will be finished basically uh
whatever the market maker exploit that we had all of that it's basically signaled that this
was just a manipulated move and there's plenty of technical confluence uh for all of that it's not just me
making up stuff this is literally how they fill buy positions uh in any range is the exact same
as the 74k lows you had a technical setup which i was arguing strongly on spaces even if you think
the cycle top is in you should be trading that technical setup for a bounce at least
You've literally got upside liquidity
that you've left behind perfectly for a rotation
to at least get a nice bounce for a trade.
But if you do get follow through on the macro side of the picture
coming from the Trump administration,
then you're going to rotate all the way back up to all-time highs.
But you want to get that positioning in before it's obvious, right? So it's the same sort of setup here right
now. And that's why I was just finding more points of confluence to just keep adding plus ones to the
fact that we are actually going to reverse this shakeout and likely go towards new all-time highs.
You guys know I've been going on and on about gold and BTC kind of using that as a
forward indicator for what can happen to BTC because gold is literally just made up of components
that make up global financial conditions. It's strongly weighted by how DXY moves and yields.
And obviously if DXY is going down like it did from the inauguration highs below 100,
gold is likely to appreciate from that. And it did.
It had a blowoff top to 3.5K from that DXY nuke.
So it's a really good forward-looking indicator for BTC.
And it bottomed similarly to BTC.
It rallied very similarly to BTC off that low.
And it's still trailing that pretty nicely.
So it's not a signal that you should fade, especially if global liquidity or global financial conditions
make up 90% of the weighting in how risk assets move.
So that's basically your highest point of confluence
as to dictating where the market's going to go.
So for me, it's the biggest signal.
And yeah, I think we're fulfilling just that last shakeout, which I'll share some
more charts in a second, before gold had that 3,500 rally. And this 2017 setup, remember,
we had a very similar macro setup in 2017 with Trump as president in 2017. I don't have all the
charts to share right now, but just kind of take my word
as I'm explaining it. We had a large DXY rally going into the inauguration and basically a down
only trend on DXY while global liquidity picked up pretty aggressively from that point. And you had a
super nice crypto cycle, that cycle. Obviously, it was a lot smaller. So you have to take that
which I wrote on this chart. The scale is different, but the outcome is the same,
because the macro tailwinds are all pointing in the same direction. But obviously, BTC was in the
low 1000s at that point. So you've got a very beautiful parabolic curve on this chart. Whereas
now you're seeing it's a lot more contained and controlled the way that BTC's price has moved.
And obviously that's partly due to the fact that it's just way bigger in size now.
It's literally 110k in price and way higher in total market cap.
So you can't have these crazy moves that you had in 2017 as easily.
But it looks very similar and we're at that same sort of point that we were in 2017 as easily. But it looks very similar. And we're at that same sort of point that we were
in 2017, just before September, where you clearly had that, if you guys are looking at the chart,
you clearly had that September shakeout to take out all of the lows. And in fact, above that
WIC low that you had, you can see if you know how a distributive structure looks like,
that looks like a technical distribution on the chart. Both of those points where I've marked where you take all the lows
look like a distribution on the chart. And you're losing market structure to the downside,
but you still end up reversing the chart. And that's why I like to focus on things that you
can forecast with on top of your technical setup. Because if you're taking the technical setup alone
and you close below that,
how I've drawn that line with the dollar sign in it,
if you close below that, you'd be like,
ah, the distribution is confirmed.
The cycle top is in or something like that.
But all of the macro is still pointing higher, right?
The dollar is still going down.
Global liquidity is still going higher.
All the other things that would have occurred in 2017 as well. So this is why it's important to combine the two so you can
get your entries and exits correct, but also have a clear idea of where the macro trend is going.
If the macro trend is pointing higher, you can't fight that trend with just a technical setup.
It just doesn't work like that. So I think we're at the same sort of pivot point right now.
So I think we're at the same sort of pivot point right now.
We're very close to kickstarting a true alt season
where others BTC starts to get a decent amount of liquidity.
You saw ETH rip off the lows.
You're seeing Sol BTC also put in kind of an ETH BTC style bottom,
And it is breaking out of the reaccumulation that it's in right now.
I think if BTC bottoms from here,
you're going to have salt absolutely rip. But yeah, back to this 2017 setup. That shakeout that we had
the second one, it was in September, which is your typical seasonality of September sell-off or
shakeout or whatever it may be, and then up only for all of Q4. Well, this cycle, we've had a
spanner thrown in the works with
seasonality and it's basically been inverted every single time not that that would mean that this one
has to be inverted as well or slightly off it's just how it's shaping up now so we just take that
into consideration and it could be because we're we've been correcting for how many days now let me
just quickly measure this i think it's almost been a couple of weeks.
We've been correcting for two weeks prior to September,
which everyone is expecting even more downside.
And it's looking very similar to this 2017 setup.
And this is a plus one confluence to the gold overlay with Bitcoin,
where you did have a very large shakeout
before a very large shakeout before
a very sharp move higher for a higher high. And we're yet to fulfill that. We've been lagging
behind gold by about three to four months. And that big meat of the move is still yet to come.
So I think it is lining up for September. And we also do have the catalyst of the Fed cutting
rates in September at FOMC. So I'm thinking that you rally still into FOMC
and then potentially BTC forms a range there
and gold continues to rally.
DXY goes lower, obviously, if they actually do cut the rates.
But yeah, there's just multiple points of confluence
pointing towards higher and higher in September.
So you either rally into FOMC
or you rally kind of around that date
and you spend time bottoming here,
which I don't think is the case
just because the technical setup right now
is looking super clean to reverse.
Literally, if you get above 1.13,
let me actually just share another chart
so you guys have an actual visual.
Okay, sweet. FOMC is in like uh three weeks three weeks yeah that
man that's a long time to rally uh on the bitcoin chart if you go back to like even this cycle
go on the weekly time frame uh anytime we've had you know consecutive uptrends for about three weeks
there's a lot of uh appreciation in between that three weeks.
40% pumps, 50% pumps, 60% pumps that I'm looking at now. And that's massive at these prices,
right? Even if you only get half of that, let's say you get a 30% pump from 110,
that's still around 140. That's huge. I would only need BTC above 130 to basically have an
old season kickoff because everything else is lined up. ETH BTC, SOL B would only need BTC above 130 to basically have an old season kickoff because
everything else is lined up. ETH BTC, SOL BTC, others BTC, Bitcoin dominance, DXY is going to
go lower. Everything is ready. It just needs that Bitcoin price action above 130 so that you can
have speculation in the whole sector again. Like, wow, Bitcoin is in price discovery. We're mooning,
all that kind of stuff. But yeah, the charts I just showed, if you guys go on the first one,
which is just the BTC setup,
kind of this bullish PO3 that we've been in,
And like I said, in these manipulation phases,
which was clear manipulation,
you had a very large liquidity exploit around 115K
when you just teleported down to like110k or whatever it was, that is
basically your signal if you get above that point that whoever did exploit the lows like
this and fill massive buys is done doing that and they're going to push price higher and
let price play out how it should play out.
So if you get above $113k with that liquidity trail that you've got, that dotted line basically
with the green lines, it basically doesn't stop until all-time highs. And the thickest part of
that is basically from 113 all the way to that area where I've labeled target to pass next week,
which is around 121k. So you basically cascade from 113 to the top of that liquidation exploit
around 115 all the way to 120 very quickly
and again we do have confluence for a very sharp reversal with that btc and gold overlay so i really
think if you just get above 113 convincingly you're just going to rotate all the way back to all-time
highs and clearly it's the most off-site positioning at the moment uh you know just based off of like
and how people are viewing this whole rate cut situation.
I think they're overthinking it to a massive degree.
And yeah, that's basically all I'm looking at at the moment.
I think we're going to rally super hard into FOMC.
And if BTC gets above 130,
which I think is basically almost guaranteed if you start reversing this chart,
an alt season is going to play out while you range, similarly to how gold is projecting in that overlay, basically.
The thing about this whole thing around the Fed is there's a lot of uncertainty as to the situation of,
is it going to tank the market?
I think the real thing, right?
The thing that the market isn't really positioned for
is that Trump is going to get these rates lower no matter what.
They're already going under a regime shift at the Fed, basically, through Trump.
That's already in motion.
they're headed much lower over time, right? And I think the long end of the curve, which I've actually been talking about this for a very long time, it's eventually going to require some form
of yield curve control. So you've got a massively inflationary setup, and Trump is bringing short
term rates down so they can actually
fund the debt that they're issuing on the short end, you're going to need all of that
for this to function properly.
Short rates to come down, they can afford their refinancing costs.
They're going to need yield curve control to keep that 10-year yield capped and higher.
And that's basically the same picture globally that's happening. But for that to happen globally, you're going to need the dollar to come
down. But it's going to come down anyway, because they're cutting rates, and they're going to
continue to print money. So it's this endless flywheel of inflation that we're basically going
into, which, of course, that's terrible for actual living costs and normies and things like that.
But in terms of risk assets, in terms of gold and BTC and stock appreciation,
it's a massive tailwind that I don't think people are positioned for, right?
If you get even a 1% cut on rates over the next 6 to 12 months, that's huge.
That's massive for these asset prices.
And basically, that was kind of like the last piece of the puzzle
in this entire setup for Trump to basically get his whole agenda rolling.
And these short-term rates coming down
and them basically doing yield curve control on the long end,
it's just going to help the entire picture.
And everybody will eventually feel these benefits. Even though it'll be highly inflationary, it will feel good.
People will have more money. Businesses will start rolling. They're deregulating the high
growth sectors, AI, crypto. They're deregulating the banking system, everything. So all of this
takes time to trickle through the economy as well. And you just, it's just, it's, you know, you can't talk uncertainties, but it just
sounds impossible for the cycle to top in six weeks. It just doesn't make sense to top in six
weeks, like at all. Maybe like the thing, the only thing that you could argue is some sort of
short-term cascade to the downside but no prolonged bear market
i think is in the near sight of six weeks even two three months i just can't see it with the
setup that we've got it's insane donny it's insane and um if anything like Trump is actively incentivizing people to invest in the country.
That's the best bang for your buck.
Like, why wouldn't you invest in America is my question, especially you have NVIDIA beating earnings.
That's probably going to IPO in the next two quarters.
You have the Kraken IPO incoming as well.
Gemini is probably going to ipo like we are living in the late 90s all over again and it's that nightmare scenario for normies that
we were discussing uh a couple of weeks ago the true doomer scenario is a depreciating dollar
and retail being priced out of this out of this market and that is a veryating dollar and retail being priced out of this market.
And that is a very, very real thing, man.
And I think there's now a betting market where the chances of the Fed cutting rates by 50 are starting to creep up a bit higher, man.
Dude, if Powell cuts by 50, that would be incredible.
That would be incredible, man.
Just like a giga, Chad, going from cutting 25 to 50, just like that.
But yeah, dude, that is going to be something.
Speaking about the Fed, I think Trump is trying to
rearrange the people that are in the Fed right now I think he fired somebody
like Trump is actually it's a evil sad again Lisa cook I think yeah she got
cooked basically she got she got fried bro she got fried, bro. She got fried, man. She doesn't understand the regime.
She doesn't understand the paradigm, man.
But, dude, Trump brought in Scott Bessent.
And, like, these are people that are giving everyone a playbook,
The thing is, I won't go too deep into the topic,
but, like, they're using using or yeah, it's, it's, I'll try and keep it as simple as possible. But they're, they're basically using this whole unemployment situation, which is clearly caused by the developments in AI as a reason to basically, you know, bring down the rates, right? That's their, those are their two mandates, the unemployment side and
the inflation side. So they've basically chosen to choose the unemployment side. And now they're
recognizing that ever since the COVID cycle, inflation has basically entered a new regime
where it's super hard to maintain it at that prior goal that they had at 2%, which I don't know if
you remember, Wabi, maybe two, three months ago, I was talking about how it would be better if they were to recognize that and basically,
you know, frame it around that inflation might run a little bit hotter. And that's okay,
because basically, the damage from COVID is kind of irreversible unless we completely
deflate this market, which, you know, again, they went through, they tried to go through that playbook in early April and
quickly backed off from it as you had massive volatility in the bond market. So them choosing
the unemployment side while AI is basically causing the unemployment problem, and then
they're deregulating the AI sector and just fueling it with this setup, it's just kind of like,
sector and just fueling it with this setup, it's just kind of like, what's it called?
Contradictory is what I'm trying to say.
So to me, it's always been that there's always communications from the government and the
I personally don't believe that there is true independence on both sides.
It just doesn't make sense.
They have to play ball with each other.
And clearly, this was the excuse used to fund the government on the short end, basically,
from the Fed side. So again, they're cutting into basically a stagflationary environment.
That just means gold BTC stocks are just going to fly and the dollar is going to go into a bear
market. It's just that simple. And if that is the environment, and it's a very big global picture,
like I was talking about a little bit earlier, there is so much upside to come in this market and people are just not prepared for it
and the worst well the best and worst part is i keep saying incremental because it is an incremental
confirmation of these things which just continuously feeds the upside as you've got
this underlying uncertainty right and it just keeps incrementally confirming.
You just chip a little bit higher, a little bit higher, a little bit higher.
You're not having this massive rush of FOMO to have a quick cyclical top
and then that's it kind of thing.
It's very slow and progressive.
It's different to the cycle that we had last cycle
where it was just all guns blazing at once.
But it is going to lead to extreme upside,
just like how you had it last time.
And obviously, you will have some points of escape velocity,
which I think we could actually be setting up
for a decent one right now with the current setup.
But I think the biggest one comes
after the dollar has the next leg down,
which should lead to a higher high in gold,
potentially around 3.8 to 4.2K.
And then BTC rallies against
gold and goes into price discovery
with a massively inflated gold
and potential rotations out of that
above 200k. If you get that
nail on the coffin on DXY
just done. It's almost as guaranteed as
you can have it to me don and even the local setup that we were talking about on monday at range lows
and man we were up against like so many of these profiles that are are just straight unks at this
point bro 200 000 300 000 followers ah bitcoin has lost daily support oh no solana is
just cooked prepare for 150 we were saying on the show on monday you start getting btc
at 112 113 it's game time another fake out and one of the one other thing to note, over the last two years, after Jackson Hole, the bottom has been in.
After 23, after 2024, Jackson Hole meeting in August, the bottom is in.
That's historically been the bottom for the rest of the year.
And you also have BitBoy getting out of prison, the Solana Sultan himself.
the Solana Sultan himself
yeah and you mentioned yesterday
talking about Tom Lee being like this
cycle and it's a perfect fit
and you were dead on with that
I didn't even think about it like that
I was glad that someone like him stepped in
like the vibes coming out
of this guy does feel very similar to like CZ of last cycle.
Like CZ's Aura last cycle was just insane.
Anything that dude said was just, it was just like the God has spoken for crypto, basically.
And I think Tom Lee is doing that on our front in the altcoin market, basically leading Ethereum.
And obviously, he's a super smart investor.
And like you said yesterday as well,
he's making technical call-outs of where the market is going to go.
You literally need a top, top-tier KOL like that
to be doing these things, to have that sentiment build up
as the market actually plays out towards euphoric highs and things like that.
You need someone like that.
It attracts a lot of retail as well.
They look up to these figures,
and they have more confidence to actually step into this market
when smart people are publicly on TV with massive viewerships and stuff
talking about all this stuff.
They're not really going to be that drawn into crypto
if Donnie Dicey is posting some charts of meme coins on Solana. They're
not going to come here. It's going to be a first. They're going to be pulled in by these sorts of
people. And then they'll trickle into CT and the rest of the market and things like that. It's a
process. So I'm super glad that he's taken that role for ETH. And he's going to take it super far.
And he's got the market tailwinds behind him to take it to those extreme levels.
And I think it's just going to play out.
Yeah, I went ahead and put his post on calling the bottom on Monday up on the nest.
We got some people putting thumbs down.
It seems like some people actually aren't optimists.
They actually don't want to see the market succeed.
But they're here throwing emojis i guess the emojis are going to cost uh um a sell button to be pressed instead of a buy
button but um we've seen this before at every pivot point but literally tends to play out yes
made the cz thing i know they didn't like that it's's because of the CZ. Wait, what he's saying, though,
wait, what Donnie's saying, though, is correct. Like, Tom is going to be the KOL cheerleader for East, and that's what's going to get all the retail. So I 100, he is 100% correct on that.
You're going to start hearing these normies on TV. Now I'm getting the thumbs down. This is great.
You're going to start hearing these normies with big mouths on these TV programs that are,
you know, real investors in real life. And they're going to start saying that ETH is the next Bitcoin,
which if we're in crypto, we can laugh at that. Yeah, we get it. But that's what they're going
to say. They're going to say ETH is the next Bitcoin, guys.
And then they're going to see Bitcoin at $150,000 or wherever it's headed.
And then they're going to see ETH at $5,000 or $6,000.
And then you're going to get all the retail money in.
I'm just going to say for the record, I think he is 100% right on that.
And we got Tom Lee. but you're going to see others
come out of the woodworks. They're already trying to cheerlead and call it. You had like Eric Trump
too. He's like, oh, yeah, he's all bullish on ETH. You're going to get all these normies that have
not been in crypto as long as we have come out of the woodworks, go on Fox Business, go on all these
shows, tweet on their Twitter accounts that ETH is the next Bitcoin,
and it's going to send the price. I would be shocked if we didn't see a 10k ETH cycle for sure.
It's not even about where the price goes. It's about the fact that it draws retail in more than
anything because of these top tier KOLs marketing the entire space. It's not even about Ether Bitcoin.
People that get tribal all around that,
because the more people that get bought in,
whether it's from Farcoin, Ethereum,
they're being drawn into the entire space.
They start learning the game.
They know Bitcoin is sort of
your own safe value asset
where you park your money in this space
if you want to be safe and think long term and things like that.
It's just simple marketing, right?
So I don't know why you'd get tribal about that.
ETH going up is actually a massive beneficiary for Bitcoin going higher.
If you look at any other prior cycle,
anytime ETH BTC actually went massively into price discovery,
so did Bitcoin because you have liquidity dynamics pumping ETH. That money rotates back into Bitcoin discovery, so did Bitcoin. Because you have liquidity dynamics,
pumping ETH, that money rotates back into Bitcoin, back into ETH, they go back and forth until the
liquidity cycle highs in. So yeah, it's good for all banks. No need to kind of be tribal about that.
It's just kind of, you need these KOLs to be in the space. And we'd been missing that this entire
It was obviously sailor leading Bitcoin.
But this adds, I think, way more fuel to the fire
because it's what interests normies.
Like you said, they look at a 200k Bitcoin price
and they probably see a, I don't know, 5,000, 6,000 ETH price.
And they're like, wow, if it hits 100,000,
that's going to be great for me
right and obviously you know they quickly learn that it's not going to happen that quickly but
it brings them into the space and once you're in like at least your eyes are opened up to the space
and you know the industry grows over time yeah I agree with everything you said. And I wanted to comment when you were talking about, I see, okay, so I made a post this morning about the chart dudes, okay, because your charts is not as important as sentiment and other things that are going on in the world on a bigger scale. So I can see why the chart dudes are, that's what I call them,
are saying there's going to be a cycle top in six weeks, because there's evidence to suggest
that that could be the case. But there's just one problem with that. It's going to, well,
it's going to be a psych out, I think it's going to be a psych out and people think that's,
that's the actual top. And then I think you're going to see
a pullback after that. And then I think we are going to indeed go into 2026 because you see,
this cycle is not going to play out the way it has in the past. Donnie was the first one to point
out to me, actually, that we could be going into 2026. I think this was back like so long ago.
And that's when I started
entertaining this idea. And then when they had passed that, that bill in July, that was the
tell for me. That was the poker tell that, yep, yep, because it's all happening now. And all the
policies are just happening now late in the cycle. Those bills weren't passed and all the politics
weren't passed when the cycle first started. So it's a different environment.
And everything he is saying, in my opinion, is correct because you're going to see the U.S. dollar weaken and people are going to scramble.
And people don't understand the younger generation if you're not in it.
Like we like to hold digital like we're going digital.
We grew up with social media.
You know what I mean? Like
the Gen Zers or in the younger millennials, like the new money likes digital products,
likes digital things. So yes, the old way of doing things is to buy gold, buy silver,
buy these tangible, you know, commodities, the younger generation, the Bitcoin is like the new cool thing. It's a
new digital gold. It's gonna continue. And now people are just adopting that narrative that
it's the new digital gold. We've been saying that because we've been in crypto, but it's never gone
completely mainstream before. Like it has this cycle. And you see, people are going to continue to adopt
that, especially all the new money, all the young entrepreneurs and AI and tech. It's all going to
gravitate around crypto. So the landscape is better. The environment's different. The policies
are different. And I would have said in July, if that genius bill did not get passed, I would have said in July, if that team is built did not get passed, I would have said Donnie is dead wrong and this cycle is about to be over.
And you can kiss your bull cycle goodbye.
That was a very crucial thing that needed to happen.
And if you guys don't know what that is, that passed in July in the state of New York, because it would have killed the market in a sense because it had a lot to do with stable
coins. You can look into that. But because that got passed, this bull run, we're going to be
riding this out as long as they possibly can. And I think you are going to see a rise of inflation
because of what he said. It was a good point. AI is taking a lot of jobs, right? So they're going
It's going to stimulate borrowing.
And I really do agree with everything he's saying here.
But I love when the audience kind of trolls Donnie because when he gets all sassy and stuff,
you know, you get a lot of information.
So you guys can feel free to disagree with Donnie.
I love when you had that guy up here that was disagreeing with him because Donnie just spits more information that way.
But yeah, like everything he's saying, I 100% agree with.
I think there's going to be a psych out in the next six weeks.
You're going to see a lot of people calling the top and saying, that's the top.
And then there's going to be a pullback and it's going to almost confirm that they were right.
But you see, if they decide to cut those rates more than one time, even in 2026 and just the landscape of the market with Donnie was saying, we are going to carry over into 2026.
The market's not going to be cooked.
Yeah, I think there are some like go ahead yeah i think too that um a lot of people have been
prematurely calling the top so what we what we have is this this massive uh tailwind with
everything that with everything that donnie was kind of bringing to light on the macro side
but um also in terms of like trying to get people, the market's job is
to catch people offside, right? And I see everyone now is positioning with the sentiment around,
you know, so September being bearish with, you know, us approaching the final leg, the cycle
top, if you will. And what I'm noticing more and more is that this all is stemming from 2021.
A ton of people lost in 2021.
A ton of people didn't sell the top.
So this cycle, everyone is solely focused on selling the top.
And it's almost making sure, it's almost accelerating this.
I've used this term on these spaces before, but we're climbing a wall of worry,
a wall of worry where everyone's hyper-focused on where's the top, where's the top, where's the top.
Everyone wants to make sure they get it right this time. And essentially, that may even create
a more sustainable price action for us to continue higher, even after some people have think that we've topped. So I wouldn't be surprised
to see some sort of trap later this year to kind of fake people out, make people think that it's
over. I definitely think we're headed for an explosive next leg. If anyone is in front of
their computer and they look at the Sol ETH chart on the monthly, I think Donnie was mentioning sole BTC, others BTC, and a few other metrics like BTC dominance.
But I've been mostly paying attention to others BTC and sole ETH.
Sole ETH right now, if you look on the weekly, is currently in the midst of breaking a multi-month downtrend. So obviously, Soul looks absolutely amazing. Soul has been fighting for its life to stay above 200. And I think very, very soon, we're probably going to get that next leg that gets us above.
We're probably going to get that next leg that gets us above.
I'm looking for 210, above 209, 209.5, but 210 basically to even it out.
And then we rip and go beyond.
But Sol ETH is the chart to pay attention to for me.
I posted about this the other day.
I posted about this the other day, or not sole BTC, I'm sorry, others BTC.
Or not Sol BTC, I'm sorry, Others BTC.
When you look at others BTC, you see that we're also breaking out of a multi-month downtrend.
I mean, we've been in a downtrend all of 2025, practically on others versus Bitcoin.
We have an inverse head and shoulders.
We have a golden cross, like in the midst of happening.
And we are breaking out of that downtrend.
And I think we're about to close out of that here pretty soon on the daily.
So just to kind of add to what Donnie was pointing out earlier with, you know, all the macro, all the various charts.
This is just another chart basically saying the same thing.
about to pump. And I think a lot of people are getting distracted by, oh, is this the top?
Isn't this the top? When in reality, it's very simple. We're getting liquidity, rate cuts,
all of that is still ahead of us. And even if inflation is a problem, that's still bullish
for assets. We still have a ton of runway ahead of us in terms of the length of this cycle. I've
been on record saying it before that I wouldn't be surprised to see this extend well into 2026.
But yeah, there's BTC, Sol, ETH, two charts that really just point us in the direction of going up. And while everyone's kind of distracted about, oh, man, this is the top, this isn't the top, Sol is going to be bearish, or rather September is going to flow as others BTC goes nuclear,
as Sol ETH rips higher, where is the best place to be positioned?
And I have my opinions on that,
but I think positioning is the bigger question
than whether we're topping right now or not.
man you know with uh sole btc i think uh it's going to all-time highs i think eth btc is going
to all-time highs and man you know chill i really hope um icM becomes a thing.
I don't hold it anymore, man.
But like Solana was so close, man, so close to doing something big.
But like it just seems like right now we're in an environment where like people genuinely hate to see new things flourishing.
So I think that we actually need new people to come into the market. Because it's just the same people trading money back and forth on-chain.
And thankfully, this Kanye token didn't shrek the market.
Thankfully, this Kanye token didn't like Shrek the market.
I don't really think Kanye West is like relevant on CT as much as Trump was.
And that post that Ragsy made when that token came out was true.
Like if Seoul was at all time highs and Kanye came out with a token, man, we'd be we'd be having a a different conversation today but um i think we
just need new people man and new people come in when rates uh are cut when rates were cut uh within
two weeks goat came out and shocked the market and i i really hope ai comes back dude i if there is any narrative that i would want to come back on chain
it's ai because everybody wins everyone wins there were there were 50 million daily runners
that turned into like 300 400 mil market cap there was arc v vaifu ai xvt ray uh uh the uh the virtual agents on base um ai16z say that again sense do you remember since
yes sense there were so there were so many winners left and right left and right because
and you want to know why dude it's because the people that come into crypto that are coming from tradify they're looking for ai man they're
looking for ai like there's a reason why ai coins went to billions with a b virtuals billions uh
ai 16z billions so right now like there's a ceiling on chain right now that hasn't been broken since WIF came out. I think WIF topped out last March at like $4 and change.
So there's an on-chain ceiling right now at $4 bill.
And, man, yeah, we just need rates to come lower.
need rates to come to come over i mean like i get i hear what you're saying in regards to uh
to like icm and everything i think at the end of the day uh it was really really early uh for that
kind of narrative and to uh meaningfully bring in you know web2 founders into the space you have to
have a little bit more uh to offer uh in terms of like support and and what have you have to have a little bit more to offer in terms of support and what have you.
I know that a lot of people got, some people got burned, whether it is because of promises or
because of certain companies, whether some rugged or what have you. I think stuff like that is
going to happen in crypto. And I don't think necessarily there are rugs. There's more so like failures because of, again, lack of support.
There is something that you can call, let's say, a founder CT fit. Like there's product market fit,
but there's also a founder CT fit. And I feel like just like, you know, there's Tom Lee,
CZ, and all these big figures that kind of become the face of a certain asset.
You know, certain some of these founders, they can be viewed in a similar way.
They can be viewed as this kind of figure that's pioneering a particular product or company.
And that kind of corrals the community.
And it's much harder to do that in crypto.
Like this is a space that's absolutely ruthless to build in.
And that's an environment that a lot of Web2 founders aren't used to.
So I think for ICM to be successful, it'll be more so looking at what support can be provided after they transition into the space.
Not just saying, oh, like launch and just kind of like leave them on their own type of thing.
And honestly, I think the space is we're on the cusp of figuring a lot of that out.
If not, if it hasn't already been figured out and just a matter of just launching, but still very bullish on the concept, very bullish on the narrative.
And I dare say it'll become, you know, a much bigger piece of the conversation,
especially when you consider people like the SEC who are meeting with crypto founders on the 15th.
And there are several, you know, from this narrative that are going to
meet with the SEC. And I think that's going to also be really fruitful in terms of creating
conversation that lead to something productive. So yeah, I get what you're saying, man. Definitely
it's definitely going to be a road, but I think it's something that if you can crack the code in terms of, you know, getting top tier talent and founders from Web2 and giving them a path that they can use to be, for crypto in general, and we'll be more known for the value that we create rather than the money that we destroy, as we've seen over the last several years with the extraction and grime going on.
the I wanted to comment something he said the yeah the new draw for like retail and not just
I wanted to comment on something he said.
retail we're not just talking like um soccer moms and you know stoner kids we're talking also about
you know even like the wealth and just people are going to be attracted I think and the new
money is going to come in for three reasons
one you have like the real retail normies because of meme coins that's why i said meme coins are
never cooked they're going to be here they're the number one draw for regular people two that
narrative that eth is the next bitcoin you will see these jim ookes start saying that. And they are going to say that. And that's going to be the leading, you know, for striving east.
And then third, what Wabi just said, you're going to have this gold rush, something AI.
I was actually talking about it with Donnie yesterday.
I don't quite know what it's going to be.
But it's going to be something to do with AI. And it's going to
be like a draw and a goal rush, kind of like how they have all these AI companies popping up in
Silicon Valley. And there's a lot of money flowing there, a lot of investor money, they want to
invest in the new fastest AI, right? So something to do with crypto and AI
is going to be this new narrative. And you're going to see a huge influx of new money during
altcoin season when those are deployed. I don't know specifically what it's going to be. I think,
you know, in 2024, yeah, we have like a lot of those AI meme coins and stuff.
But I'm talking about even the altcoin market.
And that's going to attract a lot of investment.
So I think like those three drivers is why we're going to go much, much, much higher for crypto.
And that's what's going to bring in a lot of the new money.
Because everybody always asks, well, who's going to buy after me?
Where's the new money going to come from?
It's going to be, in my opinion,
like those three categories.
It's also going to be people that are here
that are going to sell and rebuy higher.
It's so hard to resist an uptrending market
that looks like it's not going to stop.
That money is just going to keep flowing in.
I think people don't understand market momentum.
So many people will sell early
if we actually do get the unfolding on the macro side,
which I think is more likely than not.
You'll see how hard it will be to resist staying out of this market,
being parked in cash, seeing the dollar and all fiat go lower and lower
while your friends start piling in.
It's impossible to stay out, basically.
So that's where the liquidity comes from.
You'll be buying on top of each other, essentially.
And it comes down to a skill difference.
Whoever's better is going to make more.
just another reason for me to be bullish.
And I don't know, Donnie,
if you use the moving averages much in your analysis.
But something I've been looking at.
And I haven't been on these streams to actually voice this because...
I haven't been on these spaces to voice this because I've been really busy with my own streams here.
And it's been kind of conflicting with the schedule for BB.
So apologies for that, but glad to be back here.
Congrats on your sponsorship, bro.
Congrats on the sponsor that you got.
Appreciate it, man. Appreciate it.
There's a lot happening in the background,
so that's just like we're talking to a lot of folks,
and we're trying to get a few others here on stream.
And we have a ton of like really good guests.
Like we had Vibhu from the Solana Foundation on the other day.
Just really good conversations, man.
But there's been a ton of progress on that side.
And one of the things that we've been highlighting, I've been highlighting on the stream was just the amount of like golden crosses that i see like across like everything um like on earlier this
month i was highlighting the uh the golden cross happening on soul so it was like all right well
looks like soul is ready to pop same thing with dogecoin dogecoin's probably headed to like 80 cents. Uh, I saw the same thing on link on, uh, on, uh, um, on, on XRP
on, uh, it was, it was on curve. Um, but I, by the time it hit, uh, curve was pretty much at its
high. So I was waiting for it to kind of like hit the, uh, the 50 SMA again. Um, but yeah, there's a ton of momentum in our direction.
And this comes at a time when I believe the trenches and the crypto market in general has basically run out of steam.
I mean, you see a ton of people giving up, man.
I don't know about you guys, but I've seen on the timeline where people are getting priced out because they literally just ran to zero.
A lot of people have been, even in at zero, but very close to it anyway,
for the amount of people we basically topped in January. And the amount of on-chain trading
activity that's been happening on on-chain traders on Solana has actually hit a very
low, a low that it hasn't seen since, I believe, middle of 2024. So I say that to say,
you know, we're about to turn this massive corner and pick up steam across the entire market.
And this comes at a time when so many people are exhausted. I've been looking and seeing on chain that the best... I saw an
interview the other day that the words resonated with me. They said, the best way you can win
is by playing in a way that is detrimental to this market. And you've seen that time and time
again with the extraction, with the crime that we've seen on chain.
You see that happening over and over again.
People simply winning because they're involved in some type of nefarious activity.
And you do have your winners, right?
But mostly just over these last few months, a lot of people were disappointed in Q1 with the
performance. We had a brief period of outperformance in, I believe it was May.
And then since then, it's also been, I mean, again, if you're on chain, your trading sessions
are like 16, 18 hours a day, and you're able to just look at charts all day, every day,
maybe you still catch something right but for the average
person who maybe has a trading session of like six to uh maybe max like eight to ten hours um you
know and or maybe even less than that you know it's really been it's really been a seesaw it's
it's been up and down and up and down and the the market has faked out it's wick down and so you
know whether you're trading leverage you're getting even today we It's wicked down. And so, you know, whether you're trading
leverage, you're getting, even today, we got the wick down on Bitcoin and that liquidated a whole
bunch of longs. You know, on chain, we're getting a ton of fake outs. And, you know, there's just a
lot, there's a lot to chase after. So we're at this major pivot point and everyone's exhausted. The trenches are basically eating themselves alive.
You have certain, I won't say any names, but kind of bigger guys that are trading on Solana.
And the only reason that they're winning is because they have copy traders, people who
basically come in and buy right after them. So they come in, they buy, and then they literally get candled up,
and then they sell on top of those buyers. So basically, they're grifting. So again,
the only way many people have gotten to win massively, especially recently, has been due to
just grifting, farming followers, and doing all these nefarious things on chain. But right as we're
hitting a low, a generational low in traders on Solana, right as people are exhausted, right as
people are betting on all of the wrong things or positioned on the wrong side of a trade calling
for a top or calling for a bearish September, wouldn't it make sense for the market to send at this point? Wouldn't it make
sense for up to be the path of Max Payne? To me, it does. And every single chart that we've,
that we've considered today, you know, has pointed, has pointed to that fact, to the letter.
to the letter. And, you know, I'll be here on chain and waiting for not only for ICM to pump,
but, you know, waiting for everything else to go up as well. I think there's going to be an
endless amount of opportunity in these uptrends. Opportunity tends to become, get closer and closer
to infinite. Think back to, I think back to Q4 last year.
And this is the last thing I'll say. I'm kind of ranting a little bit.
But I think back to Q4 last year during the AI season.
I mean, there are so many things that you can buy.
You're just naming some of them, Wabi.
And one of them is Graphane.
I remember when I bought Graphane at a mill, I barely knew what it was.
at a mill, I barely knew what it was. All I know is that Tully had mentioned it or something like
that. So I'm like, all right, I guess I'll buy. But those are the super left curve approaches
that you can take in an upward market like that, where again, opportunity is infinite.
And when that's the case, you tend to cover a lot of ground very
quickly in terms of portfolio progress. And right when people are zeroed out, right when people are
exhausted, those opportunities are bound to pop up again. Yeah. I think I know what chart you're
mentioning. It's the daily active users on Solonchain. I think that's the chart that you're mentioning.
And it's been in a bear market all year.
But, man, that was a great time period, man.
Guys like Renaissance, 0x Uber.
He changes his handles a lot.
It's either like 0x Uber or Uber Mendez.
That dude is probably like the best guy to follow for everything Soul On Chain, man.
Michael Paik as well was an absolute beast.
I find like the guys that were like super early to Zerebro that like called it out at like 5 to 10 mil.
like absolute menaces man and um yeah right now on soul like the only thing kind of holding it up
is uh is elon with his um glass full foundation he's buying he's buying on-chain bags and i think bonk fun has like something similar that's
incoming uh they have like some huge update to be announced later this week so they made a ton
of fees um so that's something that um that's potentially stuff to look forward to and um
that's pretty much all i've got for today guys i don't know if like
donnie you want to say something rags you want to say something before i uh before i uh close
up shop here today i think it was a pretty good stream we uh lasted about just over an hour and
by the way children um like i do streams as well like video streams but those are usually
like on the weekends and that that typically has like a crowd a decent crowd as well um so you're
welcome to come on dude it's usually the same time but uh donnie rags anything else that you
want to say before i close up here
i uh i just thought it was so funny w Wabi, when I was on your show Sunday.
I said it on your show the other day because Bitcoin, I was like, watch.
You think, watch your altcoin portfolio because you think they're going to buy your bags.
These tech companies are going to develop their own blockchains.
And then like the next day, Google announced that they're making their own blockchain.
So I told you they're going to be they're going to be doing that.
Like we are going to have an alt season, but choose your altcoins wisely because these big giant techs, they're going to be deploying and developing their own layer ones and stable coins and all this stuff. It's they're not gonna just because things
were hot in 2021 doesn't mean they're gonna get hot again this cycle. So that's just like a warning.
I've been warning people since the beginning of the cycle because it's a different cycle now with
those new laws. It's basically a green light. So those big tech companies, they were waiting for
the green light. can we get away
with this shit and now because of the new laws they can so be choose your alts wisely like yeah
a lot of alts are gonna pump but they're not gonna pump to the degree you think they're gonna pump for
certain ones because it's a different narrative this cycle so that's just like something keep
reiterating to people but that's it all right are you talking about
like alts on ether alts on soul yeah which ones are you like do you mean like all coins i thought
you're uh referring to means um no no all coins in all coins in general so a lot of those layer ones that were like a super
hot topic uh you know and like liquidity providers for layer ones and metaverse and all these things
that were hot in 2021 does not mean they are gonna revive the cycle when the market pumps we
see alt season everything's gonna pump to a degree right yeah you might even see your
metaverse tokens take a little bump but they're not gonna do the 100x thousand x shit you got
last cycle people are thinking like uh you know even like one off the top of my head i remember
that token kadena that came out in 2021 it did like a 50 100x people got like filthy rich off
of it right and they're just waiting waiting waiting, waiting, waiting. You have to learn what the new narratives are going to be this cycle. And I think you were
correct when you hinted it's going to be something AI related, but I think it's going to be something
we haven't heard of yet. It's not going to be very obvious. They do this every cycle. It's like a new
narrative. It comes out of nowhere during alt season and it creates a gold rush and people FOMO in. And so a lot of people,
they've invested so much in layer ones, metaverse tokens, just things that were hot in 2021,
that they're not going to be as hot this cycle. They're not a leading narrative.
And if you don't shift your portfolio, it's not to say it's not going to go up, but you can make significantly more money if you follow the altcoin narratives, similar to how you would follow the meme coin narratives.
In my opinion, there's essentially no difference.
Like the dominant narratives that come out during the altcoin market, those are where you're going to get the most gains.
alternatives that come out during the altcoin market those are where you're going to get the
most gains altcoin market indeed well i'm going to go ahead and wrap up donnie ragsy chill thank
you for joining me guys follow everybody up here on the panel we'll be live tomorrow same time and
we go live here throughout the week between 4 34 45 p.m esc show usually
lasts about an hour hour and a half we also have a youtube show that uh goes live throughout the
week start time is between 11 a.m esc 7 15 a.m esc feel free to check out all the links in our bio
for all things bb terminal and our inner circle alpha group give us a follow in case you
guys are new here and turn on bell notice so you can be made aware of what it is that we go live
feel free to follow donnie ragsy my personal account and also chill thank you all so much
god bless you all and i'll see you on the next one take care byeありがとうございました。 I'm going to go to the next video. I I should say I opened up a letter of pills that I didn't play Play with you and April but now it's the end
I could say until the end of the night
When I struggle to get out of the house the way we're going to find
I think that my brother could take me home
I said I'm gonna be a spy I said I'm gonna be in
I went to the doctor again
He said I was behind on my rent
He told me it's not a problem for him
I said that you're so good at this image
When I said my things were I need
That I should have said I picked him up a, I realized the other day When I said something for a need that I should say
I picked up a letter of pills that I didn't pay
They were tyranny, but now it's the end of the night
It's the best way until the end of the night
When I struggle to get out of my dream, I'll fly
I think of my brother to take me higher than me yeah
it's I love you. Take me happy, smile, smile, smile, smile, smile, smile, smile, smile, smile, smile, smile, smile, smile, smile, smile, smile, smile, smile, smile, smile, smile, smile, smile, smile, smile, smile, smile, smile, smile, smile, smile, smile, smile, smile, smile, smile, smile, smile, smile, smile, smile, smile, smile, smile, smile, smile, smile, smile, smile, smile, smile, smile, smile, smile, smile, smile, smile, smile, smile, smile, smile, smile, smile, smile, smile, smile, smile, smile, smile, smile, smile, smile, smile, smile, smile, smile, smile, smile, smile, smile, smile, smile, smile, smile, smile, smile, smile, smile, smile, smile, smile, smile, smile, smile, smile, smile, smile, smile, smile, smile, smile, smile, smile, smile, smile, smile, smile, smile, smile, smile, smile, smile, smile, smile, smile, smile, smile, smile, smile, smile, smile, smile, smile, smile, smile, smile, smile, smile, smile, smile, smile, smile, smile, smile, smile, smile, smile, smile, smile, smile, smile, smile, smile, smile, smile, smile, smile, smile, smile, smile, smile, smile, smile, smile, smile, smile, smile, smile, smile, smile, smile, smile, smile, smile, smile, smile, smile, smile, smile, smile, smile, smile, smile, smile, smile, smile, smile, smile, smile, smile, smile, smile, smile, smile, smile, smile, smile, smile, smile, smile, smile, smile, smile, smile, smile, smile, smile, smile, smile, smile, smile, smile, smile, smile, smile, smile, smile, smile, smile, smile, smile, smile, smile, smile, smile, smile, smile, smile, smile, smile,