Projects
![]()
No projects found
Investors
New
DAO Treasuries
DATs
Lend / Borrow APRs
Chains
Categories
Spaces
Market Talk- V shape recovery incoming for Crypto and stocks!?
Recorded: Feb. 9, 2026 Duration: 2:04:21Space Recording
Short Summary
In a lively discussion, crypto enthusiasts explored the current market dynamics, highlighting significant growth in the stock market, potential trends in crypto, and the need for larger investments in altcoins. The conversation underscored the importance of understanding market volatility and the potential for substantial returns as investors navigate the evolving landscape.
Full Transcription
Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. . I'm going to be here. Oh I've been playing the tension on those feet that your foot is break your back
All you care, all you care, all you care
When you find all you find all you find all you find
You die in a place, you hold on, you're afraid
You die in a water for skies, you have to rise Oh Oh, yeah. I am with the ass, it's true, we look strong, I'm with the ass, it's true, and what else you become?
In the world that blame your finger,
Whistle to the other, take us, run yourself with the other finger,
So you carry on!
Are you fair?
Are you fair?
Are you fair? Are you ready? Are you ready? Are you ready? Are you ready?
Are you ready?
Are you ready?
Are you ready?
Are you ready?
Are you ready?
Are you ready?
Are you ready?
Are you ready?
Are you ready?
Are you ready?
Are you ready?
Are you ready?
Are you ready?
Are you ready?
Are you ready?
Are you ready?
Are you ready?
Are you ready?
Are you ready?
Are you ready? Are you ready? Are you ready? Are you ready? Are you ready? Are you ready? Are you ready? Oh music Thank you. I'm nervous. Music Thank you. I'm in here, I'm in here, I'm in here, I'm in here, I'm in here, I'm in here, I'm in here, I'm in here, I'm in here, I'm in here, I'm in here, I'm in here, I'm in here, I'm in here, I'm in here, I'm in here, I'm in here, I'm in here, I'm in here, I'm in here, I'm in here, I'm in here, I'm in here, I'm in here, I'm in here, I'm in here, I'm in here, I'm in here, I'm in here, I'm in here, I'm in here, I'm in here, I'm in here, I'm in here, I'm in here, I'm in here, I'm in here, I'm in here, I'm in here, I'm in here, I'm in here, I'm in here, I'm in here, I'm in here, I'm in here, I'm in here, I'm in here, I'm in here, I'm in here, I'm in here, I'm in here, I'm in here, I'm in here, I'm in here, I'm in here, I'm in here, I'm in here, I'm in here, I'm in here, I'm in here, I'm in here, I'm in here, I'm in here, I'm in here, I'm in here, I'm in here, I'm in here, I'm in here, I'm in here, I'm in here, I'm in here, I'm in here, I'm in here, I'm in here, I'm in here, I'm in here, I'm in here, I'm in here, I'm in here, I'm in here, I'm in here, I'm in here, I'm in here, I'm in here, I'm in here, I'm in here, I'm in here, I'm in here. I'm gonna be here. I am out of here.
I am out of here.
I am out of here.
I am out of here.
I am out of here.
I am out of here.
I am out of here.
I am out of here.
I am out of here.
I am out of here.
I am out of here. I am out of here. All right. Prometheus, what's going on, man?
Tommy, I see you in the audience as well.
We'll send you an invite to speak.
It's going to be a very interesting show, guys.
We have a number of speakers coming up, probably during the second half of the show.
But I want to welcome you all back to Market Talk, brought to you by BB.
My name's Wabi, and first and foremost, I hope you all had a fantastic weekend.
And I hope your Monday or Tuesday is uh doing you right i'm feeling great
it's a good start to the week and um the stock market once again showing crypto what's good
you have uh a number of names double digits today you have things like iron up like 12%. HUD is also up like 27%, 28% from its Thursday low.
And the stock market is just shatting.
You have the Dow Jones and price discovery.
The SPX is not exactly at all-time highs, but it did have a nice recovery.
And it's back to what I would call distribution range.
And I think that the main thing that I'm personally watching out for that we should all look out for is the cues.
I think the cues are more signal than all the other indexes.
The cues have kind of just been in this weird range.
We deviated below that range last week, but it's basically been doing nothing but ranging since the October highs you're talking about four months of doing
nothing and I have not seen the cues trade this way since I got into markets
in late 2017 but crypto specific we're kind of in the same the same levels that
we were trading at back in back on Friday after that nice recovery.
And I think that's something good in crypto.
We're seeing some volatility.
But now that we're seeing the stock market kind of rip up, you want to see crypto do the same thing.
I would really not like it if the stock market ends up trading at new highs while crypto just remains range-bound.
And then you have to ask yourself what happens after the stock market actually corrects that 10% to 15%.
That at this point, I think everyone is looking out for that.
So it's either we only correct 5% or the stock market just implodes and it corrects 20%.
And we see an even heftier correction in crypto because it seems like any sort of small correction that equities see,
crypto just gets destroyed and continues to make lower lows.
Even if we make a low and then range and break out of that range, it just continues to make lower lows.
And, I mean, outside of that, not much is happening on chain.
Just same thing as it's been over the last few weeks.
Just a couple of names doing okay.
Some AI names that I like have been bouncing off of the lows pretty nicely but i just haven't really
been active on chain since uh the penguin the penguin token because honestly salon and eth
haven't really done much um so really over the last like couple of weeks all i've done is just
buy a scalp on soul that i closed out on friday you guys heard me on spaces um i just don't really
have an edge right now in anything right now in anything in regards to uh in regards to crypto
but uh if you guys want to come up and talk by the way and kind of give your thoughts on the
market as well given that there's really not much volatility in crypto so i'm sure today is probably
going to be a bit of a smaller show.
You guys can come ahead and hit that request button to the bottom left.
And I'll bring you right on up.
But before I officially get started, pass it over to Prometheus to get the show fully on the road.
If you guys can go ahead and show some love to the spaces, show some love to the show.
Best way to do that, guys, is by clicking the spaces tab.
Once you guys do that, right above our profile pictures,
you'll see a nice link above that says x.com slash i slash spaces.
Go ahead, hit the like button, hit the retweet button,
does a number of things, helps bring the show more out into the algorithm,
brings more eyes and ears to the brand.
And also, who knows, maybe one of your favorite people on X bring the show more out into the algorithm, bring some more eyes and ears to the brand.
And also, who knows, maybe one of your favorite people on X can be here up on the panel and I'll send them an invite to speak
or maybe they'll request and we can talk markets.
That's happened many, many, many times over the last few months
while the crypto market specifically has effectively been in a downtrend.
The crypto market specifically has effectively been in a downtrend.
So, Seoul still putting in multiple four-hour closes below 100.
That to me just signals that the ceilings are lower and lower and lower and lower.
We were seeing people being content with some of these ceilings on chain,
not even going anywhere near its previous ceilings of 200 mil.
And most of these things have a lifespan of 72 hours before they have a new gravestone in the on-chain graveyard.
and it's just this massive loop of a euthanasia roller coaster where it reaches a big high and
then it just makes lower highs and lower highs until it's ultimately forgotten about really.
And at some point, I would like to think that on-chain becomes somewhat easier at the very least
on how it was over the summertime but that does take time
that does take time what this market experienced on Thursday is perhaps an echo bubble of 1010
not not as horrible as 1010 but it we I think we can all admit it was somewhat of an echo bubble of 1010.
It was the largest daily volume candle that the market saw in almost two years.
And I think the last time we saw a large volume candle like that was when GCR had tweeted
out in April of 2024.
So there's something to be said about that, man. There's something to be said
about that. Someone is clearing their books. And a lot of the capital that was generated since the
FTX flow from newer market participants has effectively been wiped out. I also find it funny that kyle samani from multi coin um made a a post saying that
hyper liquid is everything that's wrong with crypto which i don't know why anyone would say that
it's a transparent platform and also it's a product that gave gave its users the largest and most fair airdrop in crypto that this ecosystem has ever seen.
I think just by doing like 100K in volume, you effectively got like 10% of that 10% of that volume back you got a couple of grand just for doing minimal
volume which you know looking back it's it's it's it's insane it's incredible just for using a
website and clicking a few buttons the only thing that even came close to that was the uniswap
airdrops just for making a simple swap, you got a couple of Uni tokens,
which effectively was kind of the same thing,
a couple of grand just for clicking a few buttons.
But a lot of that capital has probably been destroyed
given the events that happened last Thursday
and also on 1010.
And it usually takes time for the market to recover.
It took the market about three months to even see 90K for a substantial amount of time.
Same thing with seeing Solana above 140.
It took the market a substantial amount of time.
And here we are again.
Here we are again. So it's probably going to take some time.
So it's probably going to take some time.
Hopefully, at least at least in my perspective, we can go back to a fruitful market when Jerome Powell leaves office and this new Fed chair guy comes in.
But again, that's just dubious speculation on my part.
So we're going to go ahead and get started. i know prometheus hasn't uh had the chance to
speak on these spaces lately we've had like i think last week like our average panel was like
10 people or something like that at the time so anyways we're gonna go ahead and get the show
rolling spaces are recorded as always once again show some love to the stream you guys already know
what to do you guys always do such a good job at that and once again if you want to come up and talk just hit
that request button i'll bring you right on up so prometheus how are you man what are your thoughts
uh to start off the week oh i saw you uh oh okay okay all right so he's actually right now I actually have my phone on do
not disturb for like most of the time that I go live here I just find it
easier to focus to look at things look at charts and all that stuff and also
just not being blasted with phone calls uh and text messages but uh those are kind of my
initial thoughts on the market but i do see more he did uh request to speak so mar what's up what's
up what's up what's up man hope everyone is doing great i i actually have my phone on do not disturb
since day one that i bought it i've never taken it out and said i don't
care like i don't care who calls me man locked out yeah um but yeah man everything good it's
funny that uh that you say that about hyper liquid because on a space that i'm usually in the morning
i actually spoke about hyper liquid how we need more projects like this we need more you know just
it's more fair to the retail and how they do buybacks and stuff like that and it just seems
like a legit project you know i know we never know what's going on behind those perps and those 100x
whatever it is but uh those leverage calls but listen that also happens in the stock market so
we have no idea with these marker makers but it's just uh we need more projects like this
in crypto you know just to uh to yeah to to get ahead and get that off season happening I know that today this chain, what's it called, MegaEth launched.
And this is one of the problems, man.
You go to their website, and I've been on chain for six years already.
You don't even know what the hell is.
It's so complicated.
You need to go and get at least a bachelor degree to even understand what are these daps for.
So how do you expect, you know, to get retail into any of these new projects if it's all complicated, you know?
And last thing, man, when it comes to off-season, because that's just the question I'm getting.
You know, I got a few friends with money and they're into investing in assets.
And that's one of the things you want to see.
You don't want to hear your uncle saying, oh, I want to put 100 bucks in this.
You want to hear more like someone wants to at least do a 2-3x on 100K, you know, 200K, 50K, whatever it is.
You know, a nice size of money into these altcoins, these blue chips.
And that's where we did not get this time around with, you know, people that just want to do a 3, 4, 5X.
They just didn't have the confidence in going into crypto and these altcoins.
So they either went into Bitcoin or they went into, like you said one time, Wabi, and I'll end up playing with this.
We had all season in Tri-Fi, you know, in the stock market.
They went that size of money into the stock market and not into altcoins.
And we've got to find a way to get that back.
You know, that middle class that wants to come in with $100K and do a few x of that money in a few months or years you know
and it's like what my friend said to me i want to invest man i don't want to gamble i just don't
know what else other than bitcoin what else to to uh to invest in in crypto that it feels like an
investment and not a 100 at the end you know it's all game in, it's all a gamble. In life, it's all a gamble.
But I don't want to feel like I'm gambling.
But, yeah, man.
Other than that, man, when you have a chance going to that website,
MegaEF, it's just, how do you, how do you,
I can't even understand like 90% of the dApps that are there.
And I've been into crypto on chain for almost six years already.
I can't imagine new retail, you know, and it's just so complicated, man.
And I feel like crypto, you need to learn what's behind everything.
And it's time to make crypto feel more like Web 2, you know,
mostly like an exchange, like Robinhood.
I don't care how.
Have you used Hyperliquid more?
Yeah, yeah, yeah.
Yeah, I've used it.
Yeah, that's basically, yeah, that's basically our version of Robinhood.
I also forgot to say that like Coinbase released probably the worst commercial ever during the Super Bowl.
probably the worst commercial ever during the super bowl that was like the worst use of
marketing employee budget probably ever wabi you know what i said i was watching i was watching it
live i shit you not i was with my dad and my brother and before i even knew it was a Coinbase commercial, I go, what the F is this?
And then at the very end, it shows Coinbase, and I go, oh my god, I've never been more
disgraced from my industry before.
Well, the Super Bowl didn't help you.
Yeah, yeah, like, the Super Bowls is just pure slop at this point.
Yeah, like it's the Super Bowls is just pure slop at this point.
Super Bowls, NBA championships, even the World Cup.
It's pure slop at this point.
After Kobe, I just find like most sporting events is just pure slop.
And I understand the distaste for crypto right now, but I think people forget that if you want to talk about escape velocity, just by buying spot, using no derivatives.
And I understand the distaste for crypto right now.
Because most people, they don't want to learn what derivatives are, how they work, or any of that stuff.
But when it comes to just buying pure spot assets,
there's no better industry to be allocated to than crypto.
And I've been active on the spaces platform for over four years at this point.
So I've seen how people react before the huge breakdown,
before three AC went, the recovery process.
Dude, I remember so clearly that when BTC was trading at 31K, 30K in April of 2023 and Pepe was roaring, there were many messages that I got saying, hey, what should I allocate to in crypto?
hey, what should I allocate to in crypto?
Because there's no way that I'm buying here at the top.
And mind you, it was a local top for a minute,
but that summer was insane.
You had Rollbit, Unibot, Harry Potter,
Obamasonic, Taninu.
And I remember when Sullivan was here in Miami,
he was telling the entire team like,
dude, this thing can be huge.
And it was trading at like 1 million market cap.
And it traded at like 50 to 60 a couple of months after that um and later on that year we traded at 44 45
and um i actually quite enjoy it when there is some sentimental shift saying oh it's over like
we're never going to come back or whatever because
usually it means we're a couple of months away from being back but in crypto there's this there's
this like strange anomaly where if you exclusively trade crypto one month feels like an entire quarter in Shradify. And that's just the way it is, right?
That's just the way it is.
And right now, the market does need some time to heal.
But you'll have some trades that, you know, you see a coin trading at 10 mil and it goes to like 40.
Or you see a coin trading from 2 to 5 million, it goes to like 15 to 20.
That's always going to be around like bear market or bull market or whatever,
or crab market more or less, a crab market or a bear market.
You're always still going to have that state of the market.
But the volume, the liquidity is not going to be the same, but you have a chance.
You have a chance to make a few shekels.
But I'll say this as far as like solo on chain, until you see pump fund in price discovery,
that is something that you have to keep in mind. Until pump goes into price discovery,
the ceilings on these things, on-chain specifically,
will likely be capped at certain levels, if not by market cap, then by time.
We've seen stuff like the Penguin go to like 150, 160 mil.
We've seen things like white whale trend tremendously,
and probably some other coins that I'm missing, right?
Like those AI coins, they did reach exceptional market caps, but their time didn't really last. If that makes sense, right?
If I'm making sense here.
Everyone just piles in to certain names all at once.
in to certain names all at once. And by the time, um, fresh people come into the chart,
they distribute and it's just, and it's just gone. Right. So outside of that, outside of that,
um, I did forget to mention that the Dow Jones is, uh, also in price discovery.
Trump did tweet about it. Um, I i think it was i think it was a couple
of days ago he had mentioned um you know in a press conference or something like that he had
mentioned that he thinks it's going to a hundred a hundred thousand by the time this term is
finishing so it's probably going to reach those levels i would say i would say going into going into 2028 because
this this this indice is like massive but um i mean if you're gonna if you're gonna see the
dow jones double in the next two years then you can probably expect even more um out of crypto
it's just the volatility that you're gonna have to deal with on the way there is going to be something and for someone like myself that usually trades on chain
there are only a few periods in the year where you can be super super active um in the market so um
before i pass it on over david prometheus is there anything like crypto related
that um that you wanna you want to speak upon?
Yeah, I mean, I missed the beginning of the show.
I had to mail some stuff out.
I got some.
So there's this fragrance shop I go to, and they use oils instead of alcohol,
so it lasts on your skin longer.
And my cousin was wanting
wanting some. So I shipped him out some fragrance. But I mean, crypto right now, if I'm just being
honest, I'm I'm kind of just laying in wait. Right. I am taking opportunity where I see it.
As of right now, we had a massive short covering rally Friday, big bounce.
And, you know, if you look, OK, are we just entering into a higher time frame trend on crypto?
No, not necessarily.
Like we are more so probably reaching towards at least the local extremity of this trending environment.
I, you know, we left a multi range month.
Are we still high time
friend, high timeframe downtrending? Absolutely. Like, do I want to be getting super, super,
super bearish right here? Um, if I see structure form, if I see some, you know, some form of range
form similar to what we had kind of at 90 K and we're unable to get back above the highs, then, you know, I will be positioning heavily short again. This asset class, you know,
I, it's, it's always prices just, it's really just a reflection of the emotion, right? It's
the reflection of the broader aggregate of the participants, you know, emotions, uh, in regards to the asset class itself. I remember if you,
when I was trading in 22 and, you know, there was kind of like the same talks, like FTX blew up.
Um, it was much more worse though. Like it was a much more heightened sense of anxiety and fear.
Uh, you know, after FTX blew up and like Luna went to zero and people
were talking about how this industry is never going to be able to recover. And, you know,
kind of along the same lines. Now, we just exited a multi-year, not a multi-year, but
over a month or over a year long, you know, high timeframe range on Bitcoin after we,
you know, started closing below 100K. And that means you have a year long trend you know, high timeframe range on Bitcoin after we, you know, started closing below
a hundred K. And that means you have a year long trend shift to the downside guys. And we're just
starting to get to the, you know, we, we shifted from euphoria, right. Sole digital asset treasury
companies, um, you know, pump fun, right. The list goes on and on and on and on. And we're now
in that transitioning phase
towards the other end where there's, you know, towards skepticism, towards mass hysteria,
right? We haven't, in my opinion, reached in that heightened emotional state that I would like to
see, especially that would mark a high time frame bottom for me within the markets. But ultimately
speaking, like I said, I do want to be very, very, very cognizant that, you know, I don't think this asset class is a zero. I don't think that it's over. I don't think that, you know, we're never going to be able to recover. You know, it's more so taking a backseat in're seeing, you know, plenty of other sectors do well.
I know David's talked about staples.
You look at the health care sectors and just across the board, you know, these assets that have largely been undervalued or quote unquote undervalued and have been laggards within the market over the past 24 months are kindly finally getting their uh their limelight you know they're getting their time in the sun
they're getting their uh you know liquidity flows they're getting their attention and that's rightfully
so like uh these are important parts of the economy these are important parts of the overall makeup of
you know the markets as a whole um and the idea that, you know, crypto is
just going to run the show and this entitlement that a lot of people have within the sector,
that crypto is going to run the show and that, oh, if, you know, QQQ is going up or whatever
asset class is going up, you know, that means crypto has got to go up even more. And this,
this kind of sense of entitlement is probably, you know, the,
the fact that it's leaving is very good. And the reason why I say it's good is because it pushes
people within this asset class, um, to expand their knowledge base. It pushes them towards
actually figuring out how to, you know, how to trade, how to get into equities, right. How to
look for longer term holds, right?
Getting outside of just memes, getting outside of just on chain, you know, getting outside of
their comfort zone, because ultimately speaking, it's going to, it's bound to happen. It happens
within every single market. If you look at it, right, the markets are always changing and always
evolving. And just because one system works for a period of time doesn't mean it's always going to work.
And I think that's kind of the issue that a lot of people are having within this market.
They thought that, you know, they could trade a certain way and that that way of trading is going to last them, you know, until they want to retire or, you know, until, you know, they deem it fit that they no longer need to be in these markets.
And that's just simply not the fact. I mean, you look at how markets have, you know, trended or been in, you know, strong trending environments, strong ranging environments,
sector focused, non-sector focused, you know, fundamental based, yada, yada, yada. The list
goes on and on and on throughout the course of the markets. And it's always changed to where
a certain style and a certain way of actually being able to participate is most
efficient and most effective. And you've seen like certain styles, like if you look back,
interestingly enough, like if you look back to even probably, you know, if you look kind of,
not necessarily post COVID, but over the last few years up until recently, a lot of the like more fundamental based, you know, traders have arguably, you know,
underperformed versus some of these newer names versus some of these more speculative names
versus, you know, the AI trades, the minor trades, you know, the core weaves of the world.
Right. And now they're kind of starting to catch up a bit.
But I mean, for years, they underperformed. And now, I mean, who's to say that the same thing
can't happen for some of these crypto traders, right? It's the exact same notion. It's the exact
same kind of framework per se. And I think it's really healthy for this asset class. And I think
it's going to make some people some really kick ass traders. And it's going to make some people,
you know, really be able to expand out of their comfort zone and look into other ways into which to, you know, navigate this, the turbulence that is.
But the markets as a whole for crypto, man, I look at, you know, I just look across the board and there's some major levels that I would like to see crypto tag,
especially total three ES, which if you guys don't know, that's the all coin index chart.
It's excluding stable coins. If you look at where we're currently at in reflection to what we had
last cycle from a cyclical perspective, we are now accepting below our value area low.
That is pulled from the fixed range volume profile from the pico low in 22 all
the way to where we're at now you are now accepting underneath that value area low that means that
stable coins are now rejecting from their um upper range that we've created over the past 24 months
it's a multi-year long range we have now rejected from. And where you're probably going to come back down into is the low volume cluster down around 300 bill market cap.
We didn't quite tag it on the wick down at the beginning of the month.
But you're probably going to be putting in some consolidation down there at those lows, especially with the higher time frame distribution we had.
I'm not expecting any fireworks out of anything crypto related. If you're in some telegram channel and you know people that can push some on-chain names,
then you might be able to make some money on-chain.
But on-chain to me is extremely unattractive.
If I look at majors, ETH has got some, it's at a very important level on the chart.
It's at a very important level on the chart. You had a single print or a inefficiency that you put in off of the April lows when you moved up to when you went from 1800 all the way up to 2100.
You've now backfilled that inefficiency and these lows have got a hold on ETH. Do I think they're going to hold on Bitcoin and ETH?
We'll see. Right. If we start to put in some significant higher time frame structure
that shows that we see you know massive accumulation then sure absolutely but you know the same thing
from what i said in regards to all coins versus you know bitcoin as of right now is you're rejecting
off of a multi-year um out of off of a multi-year range right and those don't just turn around in a
heartbeat and that's really
what I've kind of been trying to inform everybody about, not only here on these spaces, but over on
the Discord, our Discord that we have over at BB, and really telling people that you just need to
be patient, right? And if these aren't your, you know, if this isn't your environment that you do
very well in, then even better.
Then you don't have to focus on anything in the market except for getting better.
Right. And that's a beautiful thing. Right.
And a lot of people, right, are trying are kind of dabbling within the purpose market and figuring, you know, trying to figure that out.
And the only way to find out is to try. Right.
The only way to find out is to try, right? The only way to find out is to actually experience these things, figure out if you're good, figure out if you're actually good at these things. And
you might be, you could very well be very good at it, could suit your style. And you could figure
out that, okay, whatever notions or fears and obstructions that you've built within your
subconscious or your mind are placed by your own placed by you. Uh, and the easiest way
really to, to tear them down, um, is to face them head on and figure out if that is actually the
truth or not. Right. So I'm more so, like I said, being patient right now, I haven't taken any new
high timeframe positions. We took a ton of profits last week and the week before on short positions.
And that's been a beautiful thing. And I'm just fat and happy. And there's no reason to be rushing
trades right now, in my opinion, in the market. I look at the indices and it's a big mixed signal.
It's a big mixed signal. And what do I mean by that is if you look at QQQ,
you look at ES, you look even at the Russell. The Russell does not look that good, guys.
Like it really doesn't. Like 2700, it's kind of one of those things where you're at a crossroads.
You're compressing it up in at a multi-year range high for the Russell at 2700, or excuse me,
the RTY. I don't look at IWM, but if you look at RTY,
the futures market, you're compressing in within this higher timeframe range, um,
or you're compressing in within this, uh, lower timeframe range up at your higher timeframe range
highs. Uh, if that made any sense to people listening and it's like, okay, if you need to
break, if you're going to break out and if small caps are actually going to be showing some strength,
and if we do see the rotation into small caps, then now's got to be the time.
Otherwise, it's just kind of, you know, it's like you're just, I mean, you're not doing it, right?
And then you look at the Dow, and the Dow looks fantastic, right, versus the other indices.
fantastic, right? Versus the other indices. And I'm not somebody who's, you know, going to come
out here and be like, oh, the Dow's looking good. That means the rest of the market is, you know,
probably going to be seeing further price discovery. Now, broader indices, MegaCap tech
as a whole, momentum looks weak. Like I, you don't have to be a genius to see that, right?
Momentum looks very, very, very weak, where it just seems lethargic. Price seems lethargic. It
just can't get up. You get some form of expansion, usually towards the beginning of the week,
and it's coming up into range highs.
Things look fantastic.
And then you just kind of like bleed out.
You bleed out through the rest of the week, and there's no real follow through.
And so if I'm bullish here, what I would like to see, especially on mega cap, especially
on the indices is a big follow through to the upside.
I think that's going to be a great signal.
You want to see continued fall through though uh obviously you know getting a false breakout or deviation
um and break back back within is not a good look um but then i look at high beta stocks right and
i look at like the palantirs they, they look awful, right? Robinhood
looks awful. Coinbase looks awful. And I mean, Coinbase stock deserves to go down after that
awful commercial that they made. I mean, genuinely speaking, whoever there's marketing director
needs to be fired, needs to be fired. That was awful. That was a disgrace,
absolute disgrace to be spending tens of millions of dollars. I could have a six-year-old make a better commercial than that, right? One that's way more impactful, not, oh, we're going to make some blue screen with hearts and karaoke and make it look like a 1990s commercial with NSYNC playing in the background. Like, get the fuck out of here that is awful um but with that being said that's kind of what i got um i'm like i said being patient so
i'll pass it on over to the other speakers everybody rock your body that. That's the song of the year, man.
That's the song of the year, dude.
Dude, they could have sent something on chain to like 100 mil with that budget that they spent.
They could have had a penguin running on chain.
And they decided to have a weird commercial where like all the liberals at a you ever seen the millennial burger meme Prometheus?
No, I haven't.
You know, like those over expensive millennial burger places where like the guy is wearing a man bun.
He's wearing a checkered shirt and it's like 30 bucks for a hand.
They call them handhelds.s right and it's just a
burger and they have the pickle on the side and then to get your truffle fries with their house
made aioli it's like 15 bucks it's almost like denver in a way right in east denver we went to
a burger place and i kid you not it was like 30 bucks for the burger just by itself and then the fries were
like 15 bucks and they had a house made aioli whatever that is man i don't know what an aioli
is but um yeah just a bunch of uh millennial liberals at bars saying that they hate crypto
so i guess that's good because they're not going to buy the bottom when it happens.
so I'm going to go to Sam and then small caps.
Sam had his hand up first.
I'm going to go to, uh,
Sam and then small caps.
Sam,
what's up,
man?
Hey guys.
just listening to Prometheus there and,
you know,
he was talking about all some different things and he was talking about
equities and the indexes.
And, like, if he had exchanged out the keywords that he used and replaced them with Bitcoin, it's kind of the exact same thing, right?
I was kind of listening to what he was saying and nodding my head.
My take on the Bitcoin-only side of things is some weird stuff.
Like, there's always been manipulation, right?
We know you're up against manipulation, but the manipulation seems much more orchestrated,
sustained in your face.
It's like manipulation's going on.
No one cares if it's seen.
It's like flipping the bird to the plebs.
It's just like, this is how it goes now.
All the way back to 1010, as you mentioned at the start of the show,
it was just sort of brushed off.
Oh, it was a glitch.
And anyone who sort of asks any questions about it,
they get an answer like, well, you don't understand how these markets work.
This type of thing can happen.
You look at all the sustained FUD since 1010.
Once one FUD story disappears, another one,
it's like project managed, right?
So very suspicious of all the manipulation going on.
I saw something on the feed about an hour ago as well.
Someone published a chart.
Now, I am not a chart guy, but someone published a chart.
And if this is true, this is interesting to watch.
Apparently, for seven months in a row, Bitcoin has dipped on the 14th of the month.
Like, what's that about?
What's that about?
Is that like, I don't understand these things.
Like, is that, when do people, like, if you're DCAing from a paycheck or through a retirement account into IBIT, when do the institutions buy the Bitcoin to match, you know, what people are contributing?
Is that linked? I don't know, but seven months in a row,
dipping on the 14th is worth looking at.
So yeah, lots of manipulation going on.
I would just repeat what Prometheus said.
I think he said, difficult to see momentum.
I would agree with that.
But at the same time I remain bullish Is Sam speaking?
No, I can't
I think Sam cut out
Sam, are you there?
I think he might have
I think he might have gotten a call
I'll give it like
10 more seconds he's probably
getting a call um i don't know what's up with the spaces i'll go man but like it is not great today
it is absolutely abysmal today um i have a feeling that like they're doing some major changes um for spaces but uh sam if you're able to listen
to us you're um you're off right now like it says that yeah yeah just come up and request again and
then uh i'll bring you up so you can finish your statement, man. Just, yeah.
Yeah, just request again, man.
Oh, you're good?
Okay.
Okay, okay.
He's giving a thumbs up that he's good.
So go ahead.
Go ahead, man.
I see you off mute.
Go ahead.
Go ahead.
You talking to me?
Okay, cool. Yeah, i just wanted to piggyback
off what prometheus said i don't i i don't you know i don't think he could have said it better
um you know watching the markets closely i think that you know i wouldn't say that so so so long
term you know nothing really has changed with me as far as as bitcoin and just my long-term thesis
and when i say long-term i mean multi--year. I love Bitcoin. I buy Bitcoin. But I think that just in the current state,
just looking at the market and signs of just liquidity across the entire system,
it seems as if specifically in the NASDAQ and tech and crypto right that things are tightening um
the the repo markets for example they've shown some some strains lately uh the the financial
stability board they talked about some different uh like vulnerabilities within the system like rising leverage among hedge funds and some demand
supply imbalances and a lot of like the concentration risk in the like 15 to 20 trillion dollar
government-backed uh repo space so you know i don't think that these issues are like crisis levels
issues are like crisis levels, but they definitely show that short-term funding isn't really flowing
as freely as it was over the last couple of years, which can make the risk assets feel the
pinch a little quicker. And that's what I think we're seeing. And it also ties into the bond
market. It 100% ties into the bond market. I saw David, he posted
something about the two-year today, and I commented on it questioning some of the things
that he said, because I just wanted some clarity. I was basically assuming that the two-year
treasury is down to basically its lowest level in a long time.
I could be wrong, but I think the two-year is at its lowest level.
You mean the yield?
Yeah, that's what I meant, the yield, not the bond.
The two-year treasury yield.
It's at its lowest level since late 22, August of 22, when things started rising through the roof.
August of 22, when things started rising through the roof. And I think that obviously it's a
reflection of increased demand for treasuries, pushing the bond price higher, the yields are
going lower. So it's clear that investors are rotating towards safer plays through economic
softening signals, particularly the labor market where job gains
have moderated and there's some hints of vulnerability. So my take on it was like,
okay, so investors are trending to safety due to economic slowdowns, right? Or fears of economic
slowdowns, a possible panic cut. Just hypotheticals is what I was bringing up. And David said it has
nothing to do with the economy. So I thought it would have something to do with the economy, but I'll let him talk about that
just after I finish. But nonetheless, I think that the flight to quality supports the idea that
liquidity is a little bit more constrained, even with the Fed expanding the balance sheet,
which I thought would have been, three months ago, I thought completely different. But I'm starting to see things
slightly differently. And, you know, I think that the Fed's stance reinforces the picture,
right? In the January meeting, they held the funds rate at 3.5 to 3.75 after the easing cycle with a couple guys favoring another cut.
Powell and the committee, they said that it's a big data dependent approach, nothing solid,
excuse me, like noting solid economic expansion, but just watching inflation closely. So the balance
sheet isn't expanding aggressively to add liquidity. So it just seems like the system feels tighter during its peak stimulus periods.
And we see it in the market, right?
Like I said, I can be bullish long-term on Bitcoin and love Bitcoin.
But at the current state, I think that it just feels like money is flowing to different areas.
And as an investor,
that's kind of where you, I'm not saying drop your long-term thesis, but I don't want to waste
any time not making money elsewhere. As Prometheus said, look at energy. I mean, it's
soaring through the roof. I know you don't really, or I could be wrong, but I think you're more
focused on the staples and the utilities,
which obviously money is flowing to staples, utilities, healthcare, insurance, energy is
exploding too. I don't know, David, you might've said that you don't like energy that much. I could
be wrong, but you'll clear that up. But nonetheless, money's flowing elsewhere, right?
Defensive sectors are performing very well. Like I said, staples are up year to date,
like 10 to 15%. And it's just consistent demand for essentials that are going to hold up during
whatever the economic cycle is. Utilities are showing resilience as well. And energy has
obviously been that standout performer near like 20% year to date. So, I mean, I don't really have too much to add other than, look, tech is lagging.
So is obviously crypto and Bitcoin.
I think that we have found a local bottom in the 60s at that 60 range.
Just like I thought that we found a local bottom between, what was it, 80 to then up to like 94, 96.
And now we crack that next leg down.
So I wouldn't, I don't really think that I'm not too sold on, you know,
a run to all time highs or a run and say that like,
this is the bottom until unless Bitcoin were to break, you know,
like 95 to a hundred K and start trending higher. Like, but nonetheless,
I think we found this local bottom in the 60 areas. And
it's just interesting to watch how the market's changing and how sentiment changes across the board. But I can't just sit here being like a bull on Bitcoin. I've been in Bitcoin for quite
a long time. The first time I bought it was in 2017. But I can't just, as an investor, I'm trying
to just watch where the money's
flowing and take advantage of all opportunities. So that's where I'll, I'll cap it right there.
Small caps. Did you buy any soul or ETH during that dip last week?
No, I didn't buy any soul. I actually, I did buy a little bit of ETH, like extremely, extremely little. But no, I don't own any soul.
I actually, I bought like a little bit of the dip in Ethereum just because as of what Prometheus was saying, again, I think Prometheus said that he covered some of his shorts, which I think is an extremely smart thing to do um the bitcoin bitcoin's like volatility index was at its
highest point since i want to say like september of 2022 or maybe it was june of 2022 no it was
after the election oh okay so after the election and then previous times that it's been to that
level was like in the june 22 flash crash that we had from like
30 000 to 17 000 found a local bottom so i think it's smart to cover shorts there but um yeah it's
a i i'm i'm interested in where the money's flowing and going to right now so see what david has to say
see what david has to say
dave what's up man how was your weekend welcome back it was so cold they said in the northeast
and i'm in manhattan on the west side that it was colder than parts of the antarctic
and my dog would confirm that she just did not want to go out and i would be fine if she would go in the house but she won't and i don't
want to go to the emergency room for a backed up dog anyway so it was it's the cold past it's over
we're done i was this morning i had to go to a development site where john gotter used to dump
the bodies and every time we drill a hole we're praying we don't get red coming up or bones,
because then you got to get the mortuary, the morgue over there.
The snow was ice.
They were almost not going to drill because, anyway, so I'm warm.
I'm happy.
I'm looking forward to some warmth.
So I need Small Cap Sniper to stay handy in case I forget his comments and the order.
But no, I think energy is going to go up.
I'm constructive short term on the metals because the volatility is so high and the chaos traders are moving in
and it's going to be a while until they move away. Energy, industrials, basic materials,
basic materials, energy, B-E-F-I-R-E. Baseball's energy is financials and energy.
They have liquidity.
They have Trump's chaos from the Venezuela boats and then the Iran.
So those are traders.
But the reason I focus on the other ones is because just think about all the people that shorted Costco to buy Walmart.
think about all the people that shorted Costco to buy Walmart because Costco is 20 points higher
than Walmart on a margin or whatever. Well, they'll be covering that when Costco's at 150
times earnings or maybe 200. I mean, spaghetti regetti is at infinity times earnings.
And spaghetti regetti is at infinity times earnings.
People thinking about earnings as a dominant permanent factor in price
aren't noticing what's going on.
We had like a wave function that took 10 years from 1990 to 2000
where the NASDAQ outperformed by 600%, six times,
and then an underreformed by two-thirds.
That was a 10-year and a two-and-a-half-year down.
We're 23 years into this, and the rotation,
if that's what you want to call it,
or the transformation, as I like to call it, it's happening.
And when Sniper mentions a very valid point that yields are down, is it stress in the system?
Who did insure to two-year yield at any time, a two-year note, at any time in the last four years since October 28, 2022,
when I posted to get max long contact discretionary to expect the greatest rally in 15 years to last
for a few years. If you didn't short a two-year, if you didn't short a mortgage, it means you didn't want money.
Because that was about as asymmetric as possible.
Because Powell had just jacked up the dollar to 112.
It had only been 71 in 2008.
Just jacked it up with his rates.
But he stopped because Citibank was going to go boots up.
They were down to 4% market cap to assets,
multi-year low yields inverted.
That's not a way to stay in business.
And then he ended up going from a 75 basis point hike per meeting
for the third time.
And then on September 21 of 2022, Bitcoin's near 15K, 16K.
Citibank's melting.
The Fed couldn't do it.
They couldn't hold on anymore.
They had to.
They had a signal they're going to step down the pace.
everything went up.
Semis, Qs, spiders,
Citi, crypto.
Then
Citi, a year
and 12 days later,
still
can't handle it. The Fed had
a go to an easing bias, even though we have
massive inflation
because they're not worried about inflation they're not worried about labor supply as their
primary concerns those are their daughter mandates not their primary mandate their primary mandate
is bank stability and we were losing it we lost lost Credit Suisse. We lost Silicon Valley Bank, First Republic.
Citi had weeks, and I have a lot of Citi stock in a pension that I am not allowed to sell.
I'm too young. I'm too young. So yeah, I like energy, but I would rather focus on something where I don't have to worry about getting out of energy
and then getting into Staples much higher. Because I think Staples has a much longer runway
than energy. Because the dollar, I think, is going up a great deal. And we're seeing it.
We're seeing how the dollar goes down,
the NASDAQ gets a little bit of a lift,
but we're seeing a lot of stress in the system.
We're seeing mortgages, one basis point from a low.
It was up one basis point, three plus your low.
On a day, the Nikkei was up five percent are you freaking kidding me
you don't want to borrow a 3.48 percent to buy some Nikkei up five percent it's telling you
there's a problem out there it's telling you people who short the two-year, while equities are sloppy on the NASDAQ, they're unwinding their shorts.
And so when you see MicroStrategy down 80%, Bitcoin down more than 50%,
two plus trillion down in crypto, and you see the IGV at an all-time low versus the semis,
okay, you can make some statements,
you can do X, Y, Z. Europe can tell us that inflation 2% is their target, but because
Donald Trump is president and they hate his guts, that they'll say 1.7% is higher than 2,
and they don't cut. What is the matter with these people? They're going into depression on purpose so they can shove their inflation up America's keister so they can try
to get Trump out on the affordability index. There is no other way to interpret it, but it's not
going to help because the system is going to unwind faster than everybody around the world
can try to keep the dollar down. Why? Because you're all looking, folks, mostly at the euro and the yen.
Okay, you're not looking at emerging markets.
They are in full collapse.
And I want to bring everybody back to March 25, 1997.
Greenspan snugged up.
He said just snugging up 25, just a little top off.
We had inflation at 1.97.
And he unleashed based on policy equivalents,
meaning if you hike when there's inflation,
the stock market doesn't care.
If you cut when there's inflation,
the stock market won't lift.
But if you hike when there's no inflation,
you know what happened. If you don't
cut when you are falling inflation, we now know what happened. Powell didn't cut. Inflation's
falling, as evidenced by the melting two-year yield, half the rate of nominal GDP. Greenspan
hiked when he didn't need to. 99 days later, you started the devaluation of emerging market currencies,
and it killed the need for energy.
It destroyed long-term capital management in Russia.
So while people can be bullish, and I am super bullish,
I'm the most bullish person on the internet who has some sanity,
but I like to buy what's up like small cap sniper and you can look at energy it's doing well you can look at metals they're
doing well but on friday staples had the most uh breadth of any sector we We've had, I think, two Hindenburg omens, likely. And none of that stuff
I care about. What I care about is falling yields, because there's all the assets in the world,
and then there's U.S. treasuries. There's all the assets in the world,
and there's Japanese government bonds. And U.S. government bonds and
Japanese government bonds have been played with like their relationships, little toys.
And now it's coming home to roost. If someone talks about crypto and they fail to mention
that from 2008 to 2021, the Federal Reserve balance sheet rose by a factor
of 10 far more than any other time in history, then they're not being serious. They're running
up an escalator and saying, look how fast I got up to the next floor. And now the escalator is
going down and the yields are going down and the 50 trillion U.S. sovereign yields are going down and the yields are going down and the 50 trillion u.s sovereign yields are going down
and the japanese yields are going down have you heard me say down and by the way to google or i'm
sorry whatever your name is i think it was a fantastic um coinbase ad it was a horrible in
its content but you mentioned it five times in old hollywood
they'd say don't say whatever you want about me just say something about me it's so horrible
people just talk about it so from that standpoint people are talking about how horrible it was
but they're talking about it and it was a horrible Super Bowl because I'm from Boston and I'm miserable. So I just want
people to think about when treasury yields are going down, why are they going down? And if
they're going down and the economy's strong, that's a problem. It's not going down because
inflation's falling. It's because inflation's falling fast and it's stimulative but they're not lowering rates so
the dollar is going to end up going up and europeans are going to start cutting and my last
point is addressing the uh the bitcoin okay nobody on the internet my trolls or whatever, don't know. I love it super long-term, or I like it a great deal super long-term.
It's possible that someone innovates it away.
It's possible that it doesn't get innovated away.
But I talk about needing to lose multiple decimals, losing one decimal or two or three.
We don't know how many when we get there.
So what happened?
Small cap sniper highlighted that on Thursday, I said, I got to get flat between 61 and 65.
Volatility went over 90. It got to the highest level you know since the election
and if you skip the election it goes way back to 22
but you have to watch that it's not an environment of massive money creation
volatility is down 40 percent and this and bitcoin Bitcoin's only up 15. That is a garbage ratio.
Garbage. We're going to get so many virtual coins. All the hodlers and Satoshi stackers
are going to get overwhelmed. I didn't even flip around to get long. I don't even know what's there.
I'm just waiting for the vault to come in
so I can build a short again
because the volatility is going down
too fast. We don't
have liquidity to pump it up
to invite the chaos. The chaos
traders came back for a couple days.
They're leaving already. What volatility
is going down too fast?
Bitcoin volatility.
It was at 90. It's down at 54 it's down
40 percent in the two uh two days i don't consider weekend days real i'm sorry you could cross trade
but you're not getting the uh the black rock inflows or the BlackRock outflows.
We're down from 90 to 54, and we're only up 15%, 61 to 70.
It's not healthy.
And when we take out... David, what's a good ratio?
What's a good ratio you like to see?
to see. I like
I like Bitcoin to move more than the vol.
Bitcoin to move more
than the vol.
Bitcoin
from August
2nd,
2023,
when Powell was forced
to make the pivot because Citibank
was about to implode,
we had four times the rise
of Bitcoin and only a doubling
of the volatility. i'm bullish i
like to see that now it's the other way around micro strategy is slaughter show
micro strategy in my opinion there is no chance in the world all that coin doesn't get scraped off his balance. Could it be sloppy because he fights?
They will take that below 100, in my opinion. They'll take it below 50. And at some point,
people start buying coin and shorting his company, expecting the coin comes out,
and then they'll be able to arm it.
But we went from 3x strategy to coin.
Now we're 17% more?
You cannot have a concentrated position and no other, nothing,
and not have the market want to take it away.
His company was down to 30 something billion when it's trading at 543 54 30 down 90 percent
the big money will be able to push it around and when they push it around
who's going to be there to buy it?
When it's cheap enough, people will say they're going to come in and they're going to, you know, they're going to get buyers of the stock to get board representation and throw sailor out.
They'll sue them.
There's no way.
That thing's down 80 on Thursday.
Drag Bitcoin down a 51.
You know, down 51, 52%.
It just, the volatility is imploding.
You can't retain people to kind of push against the natural selling of IBIT.
They're coming out with an IBIT with a short call.
This is not V-shape recovery.
This is not even W.
This is L.
This is L-shape.
David, how would you explain what happened in 2022?
Why do you think microstrategy bottomed so much earlier than Bitcoin in 2022?
I'm just curious your thoughts on that.
Better reserve balance sheet explosion.
But it was QT in 2022, though.
No, no, no, no, my friend.
What is the shortest day of the calendar?
December 21.
Doesn't it still get cold until February 6th?
You have the momentum of the money.
It doesn't evaporate instantly,
but it's going to evaporate.
Okay, so the argument is that
because we're not going to see
the same level of QE anytime soon,
that that's why basically you couldn't,
you could not bring the band back together.
There's no way.
But I mean,
Bitcoin still made a new all time high,
you know,
by quite a bit,
you know,
through that.
I think it just affects.
That's exactly my point.
You are exactly on the point.
There was momentum,
enthusiasm,
everything.
And you were able to able to run with it.
And now
it's just exhausted
and it's on its way back to where it's going.
I mean, it's possible.
We had, no, no, no, we had
volatility rise at half the
pace.
Let's call it the absolute pace, right?
It was half the absolute pace,
whether it goes up or down.
Bitcoin is now a third of the absolute pace
of coin, of its volatility.
The volatility is smothering.
It's smothering.
You don't have enough people
to push back at the volatility.
And it's impossible for, I mean, didn't you see this a little bit in 2022 as well?
Again, you had a massive acceleration of liquidity.
You had underpriced assets.
And the Fed stopped jacking up the dollar.
We had 9% inflation, 13% nominal GDP. You know what kind of money print
that is? We don't have that. The rest of the globe is in collapse. Emerging market currencies
are at their lowest ever for 6 billion people. We just had a Greenspan circa 1997 under policy equivalents.
He just said, you know what?
I'm going to snug it up a little when you didn't have any inflation.
Powell, he didn't snug it up.
He just didn't cut.
And what happened when he didn't cut?
The market needed the cut.
It's a big problem evan what are your thoughts man to start
off the week oh man so i mean i i kind of think it's going to be boring for i'll start with more
shorter term i think it's going to be kind of boring for the next couple weeks you know we had
so much excitement with bitcoin um i think you should hit like kind of the mid 70s um by some point in february and then
you'll probably i mean you could come up a little bit more maybe high 70s i'm kind of not seeing
80 how pathetic is that right yeah i mean well let me let me just explain so i think most can i just
say one point and it's very important we have200 hours before Bitcoin closes above 74,434.
How many days is that?
How long is it?
That's 50 days.
50 days.
Because a lot of people do short-term time.
If you don't get that, that means Bitcoin is down over the year.
It's a bearish engulfing candle.
Well, David, most people on this platform
haven't lasted 200 hours in their life but but my point is if you don't get 74 000 434 reclaimed
that means everybody that accumulated during the year gonna be a lot of distribution oh yeah just
like we had that quarterly yeah well i think that know, from a more short-term perspective, yeah,
it's somewhere in the 70s.
I think you'll bounce around.
March, April, I think you'll come back to reality a little bit,
potentially lose 60K and then see that 50K range.
Yeah, but that would mean that, wouldn't that mean that we're down?
Hold on, hold on.
Yes.
Just run up and finish, finish, finish.
Yeah, yeah, yeah.
Yeah, so that would obviously, yes, the price goes down to 50K.
That would mean we're down.
Yeah.
A hundred percent.
No, I mean, versus the year, the one year range.
That's what I was saying.
Oh, yeah.
Yeah.
I mean, I'm not, yeah, I'm, I'm doing more short.
That would be bad, right?
Let me zoom out, but, um, it wouldn't be anything worse.
We haven't seen in previous bear markets.
I would think.
It's actually never happened before.
It's never happened before.
The one year.
Well, you get the diminished return. So so yeah that's obviously i mean no no you've never
had a bearish engulfing annual candle well it's going to inevitably happen on any asset i mean
well but then you've got a massive amount of distribution 500 whenever you had that last
no no no s&p can have it bitcoin when is it last i'm just curious do you know
when's the um we could look
at that let me look it up while i'm speaking and then tell me in a second does that no i'm just
trying to think i'll think about it okay but um yeah so to kind of finish here i'll try to make
it brief um so i mean yeah the the area yeah i think you could see you know potentially that
dropped to 50k it is intriguing to me because if you look at what
I'll say about micro strategy, please don't interrupt me just a little bit is that from the,
the peak in last bear market to the bottom was about, let's see, 65 weeks about, so about 115,
315, uh, yeah, yeah. 65 weeks. Let's say I got that chart up you're approaching that area so if you're
a cycle person it is intriguing to me now i am i saying to go crazy into micro strategy no david
could absolutely be right tight stop losses you know areas like that very small area and a seem
to leb strategy you know small amounts for a potential 10x if it does succeed, if you do see Bitcoin doing what
it did before. But there are concerns because Bitcoin barely made a new all-time high against
gold. So I do see what David's saying. I know that the yearly candle, yeah, a few people I've seen
that posted. People have talked about that. I think that's inevitable. You know, every asset's
going to see that at some point. You know, I don't think that means everything. You got to look at it as a whole,
I would think. But I mean, the thing too is like, I look at, you know, my own portfolio,
not to toot my own horn, but just macro allocations, you know, using Bitcoin as a tool,
using all these things as a tool. I mean, my like most conservative account for just retirement accounts has been up
like 30 in the last 12 months s p 500 has been up like 15 and that's you know right now i'm mainly
in conservative stuff like berkshire hathaway xle some gold and silver that i've been in um you know
real conservative stuff and i just picked up a little bit, a micro strategy, just a little bit,
because, you know, it does look good too, against things like Palantir, it's thing like the low that it's seen. So a lot of big points, but like David was saying, I mean, there's major concerns.
Definitely. What I will say is without, this is like the only indication I've ever seen in my life,
which is pretty funny, is that whenever someone's so deterministic about
something, like I remember I was in some spaces, you know, a few months ago, and I was saying that
Bitcoin could go to 60K, 50K, those areas, and I would immediately just get interrupted, you know,
downvoted, you know, just I wouldn't even be able to finish any of my points. And then what do you
know, a couple months later, it goes to that point. So it's without a doubt, even my own life,
whenever I've been 100% deterministic about price on something going somewhere, it's always been
the damn opposite. It's just a hilarious part of it, but that's, that's, that's life. So you
got to look at these things, but I think, you know, the gold versus S and let's just look at
like gold versus S and P 500, you know, S and P of our hundreds of losing a major area versus gold.
I would think with Trump in office that S&P 500 could at least consolidate against gold, not like break down to oblivion, you know, just yet against it, especially silver against S&P 500.
Like I would definitely buy S&P 500 over silver.
And I would think we got a few more years of that, I would think that interest rates, I mean, they'll slowly come down, but I'm talking
about like your 30 year fixed is not going to come down to really significantly much lower levels,
like a four, 4% mortgage for pro you're going to need asset prices to go down. You're going to need
major recessionary fears. And I'm not just talking like some tariff fears. I'm talking to like S and
P 500 going down 30% or more asset prices dropping and the Fed being forced to kind of cut rates.
That's usually when you're in these situations.
What finally makes those interest prices go down?
Asset prices dropping.
Now, when does that happen?
I think Trump will be able to find a way to pull that off until the next president is in. I think once you get, you'll probably see
J.D. Vance win, I would think in 2028, but you're going to see a Democratic Senate in-house. He's
going to be pretty ineffective. And then you'll see that drop down. That's when it finally happens.
You always push it off to, Trump is just invincible for some reason. He'll never
have to deal with that. But then he gets in and then that's kind of goes into that 18 year real estate cycle too. You know, it started kind of in 2012, that 18 years ends in
around 2030. That's when things generally will go down. So I think it, it kind of fits into
recessions too. Like if you figure like 2020 to 2022, that was kind of like recessionary areas.
And now, you know, it's kind of been booming since then. And you usually got eight to 10 years.
So eight years would be like 2030, you know, early 2030s is where I would see those interest
rates, you know, go down.
Now, the question is, you know, can Bitcoin make a new all-time high against gold, you
know, by the end of this decade?
I think it's possible.
It's tougher to say.
But regardless, I think if you can get in when Bitcoin looks damn good against gold, probably going to be this summer, you know, probably that area.
If we look at the charts, we look at some of those evaluations, then you could increase your gold position and then put the money back into gold, you know, before a potential lost decade, the 2030s, where gold will outperform the S&P 500, outperform the NASDAQ.
will outperform the S&P 500, outperform the NASDAQ.
I think it may not be the full decade,
but at least like four, the first four or five years,
half of that decade.
I know this is going a lot kind of into the future,
but bear with me.
I look at a lot of stuff, so I do think it'll play out that way.
But the last thing I'll say here is like,
what looks attractive to me right now?
Like those ETFs David talks about,
like I'm 100% on board.
Berkshire Hathaway versus like the S& P 500, because it's half bonds that looks attractive.
I would say for the next four to six months. And then I think we agree with, I agree with David on this because he was saying like, it's probably, I think what he was alluding to, correct me if I
think what he's alluding to is like, XLV probably will do pretty good for the next four to six
months, but you'll have to convert it to something at that time.
That's exactly what I meant. That's what I've been saying, David.
We're on the same page.
I've been saying that for a long time.
And I would convert that into, you know, whatever.
Even S&P 500 would probably start to outperform that after four to six months,
especially with Trump in office.
But if you're more ballsy, you know, Bitcoin, if it's at a good evaluation,
maybe even gold, you know, those situations.
So that's my four to six months.
I think the easiest way is kind of those macro allegations swing trades.
That's like the easiest way to outperform the S&P 500, in my opinion.
So no reporting.
I stopped.
Hey, Evan.
Go ahead.
Evan, you know, it's ironic, man.
You know, we talk about like a lost decade and all that stuff,
but if you look at the 2020s,
stocks have been outperforming crypto this entire time, dude.
You look at the top 10 in crypto, even top 20, top 30,
Nvidia, HUD, so many others have outperformed
the top by market cap.
Isn't that strange, man? if you took an even weighted like
nasdaq though and compared it to you know what i mean because like it's so high the nasdaq so
highly weighted with those like you look at the right i mean all the small caps for anything i
feel like have bled a lot of i could be wrong but i've bled a lot against a lot of stuff but
obviously if you look at eth and bitcoin i
think those have through the 2020s obviously outperformed oh not not eth probably palantir
palantir is another one too that thing is gonna fall off a cliff i think but yeah i'm saying like
from the start from the start of 2020 up until like now dude hot hot stocks have outperformed
the last decimal is a disaster.
The last $3.8 trillion you had to squeeze in there is not going anywhere.
I have no idea what that means.
Bitcoin, when it went from $12,262, existed when the whole crypto space was $428 billion.
was $428 billion.
To go to $126,272,
you had to add $3.8 trillion
to reach a market value of $4.28 trillion.
It just is not enough money in it.
And now it's getting gravity.
A lot of that market cap came from altcoins
that had insane price discovery in private markets.
You had $3 trillion on Bitcoin.
Bitcoin went to 3 trillion.
Okay.
Let's just talk about Bitcoin.
It went to 3 trillion, you know, that's too much.
I got to just, if I could throw in small, a bit, um, Evan said two things that I just
think are 180 degrees from right.
Um, you do not need a recession to get mortgage rates down.
I understand mortgages certainly better than 99.999% of people on the market.
Down to what level though? Down to what for a 30-year fixed? Tell me that.
We dropped 192 basis points when the Fed didn't cut in less than 11 months.
basis points when the Fed didn't cut in less than 11 months. Okay. You could go to the fours
like that. We're going to lose 100 basis points in six months, 100 in another three, and 101
because there's a problem that people don't understand. Initially, people aren't going to
buy treasuries. They're going to buy mortgages when prepayments pick up because they can,
because you have $3 trillion trading at a discount, the COVID-era mortgages.
We're going to eat through them, and then we're going to accelerate.
And so the problem is that people think we have to slow down to get lower rates.
We do not.
We're going to get the lower rates.
We're going to get a stronger dollar.
And Main Street's going to be the happiest in a decade.
And it's going to leave tech, communications, and crypto on the sidewalk.
And so it's not just flow out of energy and flow into Staples.
It's that when people are saying, oh, it's strong,
they're not going to get out as staples leaves them in their dust, and they're going to be
trapped in there. So if energy had a longer term time frame, I'd want it. But it's got a smaller
term. How do you get in? How do you flow in? How do you flow out, and then flow into something that's taking off? That's always the
challenge. But the base case is people start to trade on earnings, and it's a problem. Markets
care about earnings only some percent of the time. We're not going into recession. We're not
going to slow down. We're going to grow at 4% as far as the eye can see. And it's not good for tech.
So we're never going into a recession? When would you guess?
Five years, eight years? Usually recessions are caused by policy errors. And we have a hundred
trillion of equity. It's really tough to go into a recession when there's a hundred trillion of equity. It's a
shock absorber. There's going to be a depression in tech. They're using debt. They won't be able
to pay it back. Go look at XCCC divided by HYG or JNK. And you're seeing a lot of these data
center fundings. They're not going to make it. We're going to
have a glut. There's not going to be earnings. Look at all the consulting firms. Their clients
want a rebate for all the money that the consulting firms are saving on being able to use AI instead
of staff. That money is going to spread out throughout the system. It's going to help staples, healthcare utilities.
But this idea that you need a stock market crash to get mortgage rates out is a fundamental belief
by the super vast majority of people. And I'm begging you.
You're going to love this. Let me tell you why interest rates aren't going to come down that
much because my rental property would become profitable to be rented out that's not going to lose all of your cut you'll lose your tenants
if you don't lower the rents that's the problem you'll lose your tenants when the new person
can borrow at four percent for multi-family they will offer discounts and your people will leave
it's your choice i mean i this is what I spoke to Grant Cardone about.
Please, Grant, realize you need to learn how to swap the debt you're taking on into adjustable
for your multifamily, or you're not going to get your rent increases. And he says he doesn't need
them. I'm not going to tell him his business. He's running billions of dollars. I'm not doing that yet. We're just starting the fund up next week or so.
But you're going to see long rates down.
You're seeing it.
The Japanese 40 that everyone's losing their mind on
went from 4.1 basis points up to 420 over 100 times.
And the level of May 18th was 3.695, we're like 12 basis points away.
You're talking about a nine-month low on the Japanese 40. Everyone who shorted it,
they're going to get slaughtered. This thing is up 10. This thing's up 100 times in yield,
while the Japanese stock market's up eight times in value. It's too much competition
for a country that lives deflation. Do you know how many empty homes there are in Japan
because they don't have any babies? They don't have anyone who moves into these houses.
China's housing market, it's in free fall. China's tenure fell below 1.8.
tenure fell below 1.8. The problem is people have strong conviction and they're wrong about some
stuff. And you got to watch the price and not the story. You got to watch what's news and not what's
noise. So if you have someone who explained that mortgage rates are going to new lows, when Jamie Dimon and Druckenmiller and all these other schmucks like Larry Think and Bill Gross said the opposite.
Don't you want to listen to the one guy that was right on rates and crypto?
Or do you want to tell them, no, you'll be wrong next time?
I'm the only one out there who said you'd get new low on mortgage rates.
I'm the only one out there who said you'd get new low on mortgage rates. I'm the only one out there who said crypto is going down.
I was long in April.
I covered a short from last January.
I got tops, bottoms, tops, and I just covered S Sniper.
I got it within hours.
Did I Sniper?
No, I got to give it to you.
After that crazy space, whenever it was on friday
uh thursday or thursday right yeah i got a dm from you you told me you covered
um i think bitcoin went because volatility is going up three times bait i mean gamma
it's not the other it's not half what it it's it's a curtos it's liquidity. It comes back fast. People are trading gold. They're trading silver.
They're getting reliable money if you're talented. No one's getting reliable money in crypto. And
when we take it back below 50 and then back below 40, they're all going to leave again.
And they're going to go elsewhere. You know where they're going to go? They're going to go bare tail on tech.
They'll take Microsoft right through their lows.
They'll take Amazon back to the dot-com era level of 188.65.
Folks, we're losing liquidity all over the world.
I used to say we're deleveraging.
We're actually leveraging up.
We're hemorrhaging liquidity.
David.
We're hemorrhaging equity.
Isn't that like it used to be – can you just explain that like a little bit better because
it used to be um what just just just about us losing liquidity because it's like
people we lost two trillion dollars in bitcoin equity in less than four months right but what
i'm saying is you know when the Fed is expanding the balance sheet and pumping
40 billion a month, you know, into the system, people don't think that that's losing liquidity,
right?
So people who had 9.8.97 trillion, okay, and now we're at six and, and they're happy that they're getting a couple of nickels a week?
Come on.
It's like the winter and the weather.
We started getting more light on December 22,
and it just still gets cold.
You can't start with a longer day
and expect to warm up and add entropy and volatility.
It takes a while to build up momentum after all this stuff. And they held the dollar down,
and it's not going to stay down. It's not going to stay down. When you have a mortgage
shifting from a 30-year fixed to a seven-year fixed six-month adjustable or five-year fixed
and one-year adjustable, the borrower is paying less for the volatility to lock in their mortgage
rate to not be a victim of a slowdown or an inflation spike. So the banks like strategy that sells volatility.
They're the same.
One selling crypto vol, the other one selling money vol.
That sounds like money vol.
The ones that sell money vol, banks,
there's going to be less to sell.
It's going to be too much competition.
Vol comes in, they're not going to make the money.
Vol comes in, micro strategy is not going to make the money. Vol comes in,
microstrategy is not going to make the money. They're going to sell the coin. That's what's
going to kill crypto. I shouldn't say kill. That's what's going to massively deflate
crypto volatility. It's going to make nobody interested. When crypto vol goes to 1910,
a 1% daily move, you're not going to have the interest. Please pull up Dux. I don't know
if Dux wants to speak. Please let her explain to you what it's like to be a hyperliquid
trader. I think she uses it sometimes. It's great. And now I think they're expanding to other things
where they can make their money, not just crypto, which is genius.
If you can lift, I don't know if Dex is going to speak, but that's what it is.
We're going to lose interest.
We're going to lose entropy.
We're going to lose chaos.
They're moving to other things.
They're spending all time in gold and silver.
Trump took some oil boats.
He seized another one today.
He's going to blow up Iran,
blah, blah, blah, before the election. Not so sure about that. You've got elevation.
Who was the fund that lost 40% last year in commodities? That was up from worse. That's
the problem. Commodities and a downtrend are dominated by commodity trading advisors, which
most institutions use. They
don't do their own commodity trading because there aren't that many people that really know it.
So they go to funds and the funds are a disaster. And when oil, which is the biggest commodity,
starts to go up, it takes all the pressure off and let some chaos come back. But that's over.
It's over soon. When the dollar comes up. The dollar came up, Bitcoin got smashed.
Is there any price
where you would just have to
buy BTC or
SolarEast? Is there any price that...
It's a contingent price. Can I say
that? And what's the contingent price?
When Bitcoin volatility
is stable,
it goes to a low when it stops going down
and it stops bouncing,
so that the kurtosis of Bitcoin volatility is a heart attack, I'll be loading up with even my
enemy's money. And then when you start to see Bitcoin rise and its volatility stable,
that's what happens. If Bitcoin's rising before its volatility, by the time anyone knows that,
what that means is you're buying it. The dealers are short calls, skew. The system is short
50 million virtual coins. They'll never get them back for four decimals of growth.
We had no Bitcoin in 2008. Bitcoin got excited into existence.
It had a value.
You couldn't get back the underweight of the system.
Now we got to price discovered, past tense, price discovered, and it starts to roll over.
You have failure to outperform the NASDAQ.
We only outperformed the yield. Yield peaked on January
13th. Bitcoin peaked on January 19th of last year. S&P and NASDAQ are going up for two weeks. Get me
the hell out of there. Get me short. And then on April 7th, Bitcoin's not going down faster than
NASDAQ. It's supposed to go down three times. Get me out, get me flat, get me long because it's so volatile. But now Bitcoin's losing its energy. It's too much
virtual money, all this IBIT, and they're going to be selling an ETF with IBIT plus short
volatility. Who wants to hold that up? What coin trader wants to deal with all that incoming selling pressure
from 50 delta calls hitting them in the face every single day evan what about yourself
is there any price where you would just have to bid you know it's more about smp 500 or excuse
me bitcoin versus smp 500 or bitcoin versus gold, those type of things.
But a price on Bitcoin, I mean, I would definitely buy some like, oh, yeah, yeah, the 200.
So it's not really a price.
It's a moving average.
200, two-week SMA.
It's currently at 39K.
I think by the time we hit it, it would probably be something with a 40.
45, 40.
Yeah, something like that. If you hit that, I think by the time we hit it, it would probably be something with a four. 45, 45. Yeah, something like that.
If you hit that, I think it's...
Is that a trade or is that a longer-term accumulation?
Macro, macro allocation, you know, at least a year, probably at least six months.
It depends how it looks against the S&P 500 and all that.
Yeah, I think that's going to go very, very, very, very bad for you.
Well, okay.
Well, where do you think it's going to go?
Because there's no volatility.
The volatility's dying, and they're planning
on shorting even more than before that happens.
Oh, no, if it comes back,
I don't see any chance of it. If it came
back, of course. All the traders would
come back. But the volatility
is evaporating so rapidly this time.
They're like, I'm not
going to swing trade it. I'm out.
So for Evan, for for you it's like
similar to when we hit um i think we hit that moving average it's right in june of 22 right
no we've never hit this one it's on the two week bro 202 week not the weekly yeah the half month
the half yeah the half month it's where eth bottomed in back in april 25 that's
a big place i mean it's tough to say and i'm looking at more indications or more like bitcoin
versus spy like that's down three trillion that's down three trillion yeah i think so many people
are going to over complicate this man i tell you what um if there if there is like dude if there's a retest of like sub 70 i'm just gonna consider
that like ftx and i'm just gonna buy bro to be honest with you i don't think this whole thing
is gonna drag out um i i don't think so and if i'm wrong oh well these spaces are recorded and
i mean i've been doing this i've been doing these public spaces for over three years. And like, it is what it is, man. Sometimes you're a genius, sometimes you're not. But yeah, I'm just looking at the stocks right now. And it's like, dude, if you just continue having the S&P, call it whatever, it just ranges in a 5% to 7% range and crypto just keeps grinding lower.
whatever it just ranges in a five to seven percent range and crypto just keeps grinding lower
um if we have another flush like we did last week then at that point i'm just going to consider that
the bottom and whatever trump is going to juice the stock market and crypto is going to decouple
from his words that's my dubious speculation man i think like this whole like btc against gold, BTC against the NASDAQ and all that stuff.
All that stuff happens when macro became huge in 2022 here on this platform.
As far as the crypto people, right?
And if you remember, Evan, I'm sure you remember.
I think you started coming on these spaces early 2023, right?
Yeah, yeah.
When you broke 23, 25K right around there.
And you remember, dude, there were a lot of people that were saying oh dude don't you see the s&p it it had a pullback from like 4k uh 40 it was like
between 4 000 to 4 200 something like that actually no we hit 4 300 and we had a decline of almost 10%. And then the whole narrative, you remember when we were chopping, right?
Before that CoinTelegraph dude put out that post of the ETF being approved or whatever.
Like a lot of the sentiment was, oh, crypto is going to catch up to equities.
Whatever the reason was, a bunch of weird stuff, right?
Like, oh, when the ETFs go live
they're gonna dump on you blah blah blah all this stuff and it's like all right man whatever you say
and I'm happy to be wrong bro but I I really don't think like multi-year bear markets are
ever gonna happen again even in 2022 that bear market lasted what 10 months nine months if
that you could have bonded in june of 22 and still be happy um you could have bond 6k btc
uh in q1 of 2018 and be a happy camper within like 15 months when we traded at 14.
uh you could have bond btc at 17 18 after 3ac and been a happy camper in 12 months
um and these drawdowns happen quicker and quicker and quicker if you remember when you were here 18 after 3 AC and been a happy camper in 12 months.
And these drawdowns happen quicker and quicker and quicker.
If you remember when you were here, Evan, last year in Q1,
I was bared up to the gills. But, you know, as we went into like mid-March, late March,
I'm like, hang on, man.
Now you have the Nasdaq going down 2% plus a day.
This reminds me of Trump's previous term where we had that taper tantrum downturn,
where if you look at it, the drawdown only lasted, what, 8 to 10 weeks?
We peaked in early September.
We bottomed within the first week of December, something like that.
I could be wrong, maybe by a couple of trading sessions.
But I remember during that time, a bunch of headlines were coming out saying all the stock market has lost
X amount under Trump, blah, blah, blah, and whatever we bottomed out. So to me, it kind of
symbolizes, all right, under Trump's regime, it's probably just going to be these quick
mini and bull markets within a grander bull market.
And the rate of information just goes by so much quicker after COVID, where everyone gets the same amount of information and everyone decides to counter trade each other. And it's like,
and it's like, dude, honestly, this is a different environment than 99, the 80s and the 70s.
Last year, we had the quickest recovery from a drawdown of over 20% on the NASDAQ and the S&P.
Was it a recovery, though?
Was it a recovery or was it a Trump spoof telling you the economy will crash when I give a 145 tariff?
And he said it was just a joke.
That's not a recovery.
Those aren't real prices.
He said we needed to take medicine, though, and we did.
I did a subspace on April 21 saying, Max Long, the volatility is going to come in and price is going to go up.
Yeah, I'm just saying the price action that we've seen under Trump has relatively more or less been the same from his first term
where you have these quick drawdowns.
That's a big difference, friend.
It's a big difference.
Yields are coming down, not going up.
Yields are coming down and not going up.
And that is a global collateral short squeeze.
Big problem. I have
no idea what yields are
to be honest, man.
There are three or lows.
There are three or lows, and if you're not
watching them, you're taking a lot
of risk, in my opinion.
You can't ignore yields.
It's much larger than equity fixed income.
It's much larger than crypto by 100. It's much larger than crypto by 100.
Okay?
It's 100 times the size of crypto.
And if you're not watching a much bigger dog, you could get gobbled up.
I'm just saying, please watch these melting yields around the globe.
U.S. mortgages, U.S. two-year, Japanese 40-year.
It's a problem.
Big problem. You can't ignore them. I mean, they've beenyear, it's a problem. Big problem.
You can't ignore them.
I mean, they've been range-bound for so long, and they were range-
They broke down.
They broke down.
By the way, guys, I do have to, like, end this in the next, like, 10 minutes or so.
They broke down.
They're at a three-year low, despite not cutting.
They're breaking down.
It's screaming at you.
Mortgages are screaming at you.
They're range-bound.
They're sideways.
I agree with you.
A three-year low is not breaking down?
On which one?
The two-year yield, the adjusted rate mortgage.
The adjusted rate mortgage has so many hidden fees. It's really.2 apr it's better for i was looking at that that's not correct but for me
in my position it's better for me to refinance to a 30-year fix i get a better rate in my position
for some people but what i wanted to mention is that from 01 to kind of 0-7, it was very, yields can be sideways for a long time, man.
Like, they can be sideways.
I think they'll slowly go down.
I mean, you said for a 30-year,
you could be in something with a five in front of it,
maybe 100 basis points down.
Evan, Evan, Evan, after you, I'm going to wrap up, man.
I do have to get going here, man.
But it was a great show.
I just don't want the conversation to turn into yield talk.
I really don't want that.
Go ahead, I agree.
No, I was just going to say, it could be choppy.
It could be range-bound for some more years.
My guess is that you need asset prices to come down
to really get those to come down significantly.
Maybe I'm wrong.
I think it's similar to 01 to 07 where they were choppy.
Wabi, you should look at just US 10-year on the charts.
That's the yields.
That's essentially, those show mortgage rates, essentially.
It's basically the opposite of looking at the bond ETFs, like TLT.
So, yeah.
anybody home this space on
i think wabi might have uh might be having some connection issues yeah yeah well anyway no it was
it was a good space good talking to all all of you guys. I think David left.
But, yeah, I always appreciate you guys.
I mean, good discussion.
You know, a lot of good points.
I just think it's too good to be true for mortgage rates to come down, like, that much.
You know what I mean?
Just for, like, people that have high mortgage rates in my position, I think we're kind of going to have to deal with it a little bit longer.
But who knows? I don't think it's going to doomsday for you know that much for the Nasdaq
I think it will come down, but you know not not complete like doomsday, you know
Like maybe a lighter version of 2022. So especially with Trump in
He's got a magic magic way to prevent things from getting too bad. You know what I mean?
Yeah, like especially in April of last last year you know things were getting bad quick and i mean that reversal was kind of crazy and i guess it's it's just slightly different because
you know like the tariff talk can be manipulated
whenever whenever he wants to right he just like comes out and says something and
or makes a policy shift and yields and mortgages they're a little bit different but no man i i
i agree with you it's just interesting um yeah it's it's interesting like learning for myself
a little bit more in depth about it because I never really...
I mean, I guess that's just the...
I mean, I don't know how old you are, Evan, or how long you've been doing this, but I
guess that's being the naive young investor, right?
Not focusing too much on mortgages or only focusing on them when they really matter or
I guess when it's too late and sticking to just the fundamentals and I guess technicals as well.
Yeah.
I'm trying to, I'm trying to learn, like, I'm trying to really hone in on that because, I mean, my understanding of global bond markets are pretty solid.
Like, I mean, I, for one, thought that the yield curve, like, I was really focusing on the Japanese yield curve control from 20...
I know that Wabi doesn't want to talk about it.
I don't know if he's still here.
But the YCC from 2016 to 2024 was storing an insane amount of risk.
And I thought that that was a pretty...
I mean, I still do think it's a pretty bullish macro factor for Bitcoin.
But it's not playing out that way just yet. There's so many other factors. I don't know, man. I'm trying to digest what David is saying because,
I mean, dude, I have a DM from him at 6.55 PM last Thursday messaging me after that crazy space
that we had with just him and Matt were going
at it. He messaged me that he covered his short. And I was pretty surprised about it. He sent me a
long ass message. He's like, I'm covering, I just want to let you know, I'm covering my short
on SBIT, which is the 2X short Bitcoin. And he gave me a reasoning for it. With this Bitcoin,
this specific B btc vol
index he looks at and i never really have looked at that i don't know have you have you evan do
you look at uh i think it's devol no for bitcoin what's the ticker devol i've not know yeah so i
think it's i found it i think it's devol yeah yeah and so he like explained to me like you see these
peaks over 90 that they've had if you zoom out more on the yeah i see exactly what
you're talking about yeah he i'll dm it to you i'll send you a screenshot it was pretty it was
yeah it was pretty fascinating and then i was like all right that's it this is while the the
whatever we want to call it the flash crash was happening um it was like six it might have been
7 p.m he messaged me i think big the price bitcoin was 61.2 61.3 and then it went back to 60 and
just fucking reversed out of nowhere so i mean the guy definitely knows what he's talking about
you know it's like he's got some sort of thesis and i'm trying to like i'm trying to understand
volatility a little bit better um but yeah i mean that's that's really all that i got today yeah i
was just gonna say i think like you know if you look at that's a good chart because if you look at it
It's generally been a pretty good time to buy every time the volatility gets really low
But it didn't get real low last time in the bear market until like July or August the 23
so, you know, it only tells you so much but if you see it go down like quite a bit, you know into
April May June that that creates more of a better
place to potentially, you know, kind of get into Bitcoin or whatever. It's one of the many things
you could look at. I'm sure some good trading, you know, strategies with it. Um, yeah, I wouldn't
doubt David's done well with it. Yeah. I wouldn't doubt it. I got to learn more about it. So, all right guys it's been a great show um
boy oh boy i'll tell you what what do you sound stress no no i'm just getting like
i'm just kind of getting like i guess those feelings that i got in march where it's like
all right you take another nosedive down, that's probably it.
I think everyone is in agreement that like 30 to 45 is like the bottom or whatever.
And I just, we either go a lot lower than that or we bottom a lot higher than that, right? Maybe like 52K, which was the bottom end of the 2024 range
from March to August of 24. Dude, I've never talked about bonds since I've been with BB,
which is basically since the very beginning. I've never talked about bonds. I've never looked at
mortgages. And during every major inflection point, I haven't been that far off from being
right. Myself and Donnie, we called the bottom in April. And then I think me and a few other
people, same thing in August of 2024, during every single major event,'s like all right like this is this is it right i might be
a lot a lot of us including me like i was late to the top um but soon after that i remember going
into february i'm like all right kanya's gonna release a token whatever it might be over for a
little bit and under a trump regime like why would you expect anything different compared to his first
term it's these quick it's these quick bear markets that shock people. And they're not drawn out. They're not.
And if crypto is a part of TradFi, then it's all going to happen all at once, right? Like,
chud jacks are going to get blown out. And yeah, I'm ready to to go on chain again you know like i've i look at
price action every day and i've never once looked at any huge macro thing at all i think i honestly
think it's a waste of time honestly like it's cool to like understand what's happened in the past
but if you keep trading like it's the 50s and 60s, you're going to be left behind.
That's the way I see it, right?
I mean, how many people were laughed at, Evan, from buying BTC and ETH in June of 22?
They bought ETH at sub-1000, and they got a 3x gain after that right so whatever some exchange
blows up um you just buy and kind of keep it to yourself because this is where like crypto people
crypto crypto specific people they make the big mistake in becoming a macro person and i know many people in 2023 they lost
the plot and they missed out on they missed out on that huge run so while it is good to like know
these things and it helps you avoid drawdown like don't forget the bigger picture crypto is here to
stay it's not going anywhere and it's the best market to remain uh focused on and allocate to
if you actually want to reach escape velocity.
And I would even say as well, like with the equity markets, you have to pay attention to trends.
Hood is a trend. AI is a trend. I'm a believer that tech is going to remain the place to be for the next probably forever probably forever
over like a five-year time span i'm sorry like i just don't think we're going to go back to
george bush era where we have tech just bleed out against everything else i nah man and if i'm wrong
oh well it'll be the first time that i'm wrong on a huge, huge, huge trend shift in capital. And that's what makes a market, right? People that are right, people that are wrong, and people in between that are just spectators.
Um, also we had Sam and sons come up here for the first time.
Mar also joined me.
Prometheus also joined me for the start of the show.
Uh, but, uh, thank you guys so much.
It's been a kick-ass stream.
We streamed for just over two hours.
Uh, but guys, if this is your first time tuning in and, uh, you've enjoyed the content and
the stuff that we, uh, yapped on about for today's show, my name is Wabi. I go live here on the BB profile on Xspaces Monday through Friday,
typically between 3.30 to 3.40 p.m. EST.
And I go live here with a set panel of speakers where we talk all things markets,
whether it's BTC, Alts, TradFi, Macro.
We cover all things price action, time frame high time frame all that stuff
so if you want to keep up with what we do here make sure to give us a follow follow all the
other speakers and for those of you that are a bit more crypto centric we do have an inner circle
alpha group the link to that is in our bio you can go to our website check out all of our testimonials and we also have our very
own trading terminal i'm going to put the link to that up on the nest so if you click the spaces
tab guys you'll see right above our profile pictures the links to that you can check out
once again all of our testimonials check out our packages and if you send us a DM, whether you send the Because Bitcoin profile DM or my personal account here as at King Lobby,
you can send me or the BB profile DM with any questions or comments about what we have to offer.
And we'll hook you up with a discount for your first month.
And we'd love to have you.
We'd love to have you a part of our community.
We have multiple
channels within the server covering all things crypto we also have private live streams and all
that good stuff and as far as our trading terminal some very very very cool stuff is going to be
launching here in the next few weeks that you guys are going to absolutely love and we welcome you here to BB hope you guys find BB a home for you for
all your things crypto related needs whether it's live streams whether it's a private community or
on-chain tools to help you navigate the market we have it all for you guys and we'd love to have
you a part of this so with that being, I hope you guys have a good rest of
your Monday and Tuesday, and we'll be back tomorrow at the same time. And I also do want to mention
we have a YouTube show for you guys that's also hosted Monday through Friday called Market Check.
That show goes live at 11 a.m. Actually, no, it now goes live at 11 30 a.m est and that show is uh centered around
all things static technical analysis so if you guys are into charting and stuff like that
you can check out that show the hosts are very active in interacting um with the with the chat
box on youtube so feel free to check out that show, be active. And once again, feel free
to follow the Because Bitcoin profile and also turn on bell notice so you can be made aware of
when it is that we go live. But we also do strive to be one of the fastest pages to produce real
time news in regards to all the markets. So if you want all things news, live streams, and of the like,
feel free to give us a follow and tell a friend to tell a friend about us here at BB.
So with that being said, God bless you all, and we'll see you all tomorrow.
Take care, guys.
And spaces are recorded, as always.
All of our spaces are recorded.
So you can catch today's space, Friday's space, Thursday's space, all the spaces that we've done over the last couple of years have been recorded.
So, all right, guys, take care. Bye-bye.
