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Market Talk- WELCOME TO MELT UP SUMMER! New highs for stocks!BTC next?
Recorded: June 30, 2025 Duration: 1:13:31Space Recording
Short Summary
The crypto market is poised for significant growth as equity markets surge, with Robinhood's upcoming tokenized stock offerings and strategic partnerships indicating a bullish trend. Key figures in the industry are optimistic about the interdependence of equities and cryptocurrencies, suggesting a potential catch-up trade in the crypto space.
Full Transcription
Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. you Oh Open up the limit.
Pass the point of no return.
Reach the top, but still you gotta learn how to keep it.
Hit the goal wheel and double the stakes. From the wide open like a man out of hell. Oh, yeah. Oh Take it maybe one step more I'll keep still playing
So we better wait Thank you. Music Music Music
Music
Music
Music
Music
Music
Music
Music
Music
Music Music Music Music Music Music Music Music Music Just stand in your way You might get jealous but you'll never be safe while you're still there guys what is going on i hope you all had a fantastic weekend welcome back
to market talk brought to you by because bitcoin i'm your host wabi
man oh man the equity markets are absolutely ripping face to start off the week.
Man, you got to love to see it.
Hood trading at almost $100 per share, up over 10% today.
That is nuts.
Also, we have Nikita Beyer.
I believe he's one of LaunchCoin's biggest proponents and a huge, huge, huge advocate
for all things Solana joining X as head of product.
Probably nothing, right?
Probably nothing.
Internet capital markets are actually catching trend over in the equity markets.
I believe that Robinhood wants to launch a layer two for whatever reason.
And people are going to be able
to buy tokenized stocks. A lot of cool stuff happening in the crypto space, both on ETH and
also on Solana. And dude, this price action that we're seeing in the equity markets is so,
so reminiscent of some of the charts from the late 90s.
I wasn't trading back then.
I was in diapers.
But if you just pull up like Amazon or Google or some of the other tech stocks that IPO'd
back then, it's more or less the same price action that we're seeing right now.
Hood is almost up 160-ish percent from its low in April. Absolutely insane. We have the
quickest reversal back to highs from bottom to peak in equity market history. This was a faster
recovery than COVID. And over the last couple of days, we have both Trump and Basant telling you the inverse message of what they told you in February.
In February, they said, hey, the stock market is a little bit sick.
It's a patient.
We need to have some surgery.
And there might be a few accidents and a few spills.
They were telling you risk off.
But now they're telling you that they're going to use 10x growth to subsede any fears when it comes to stagnation in the
economy. They're going to pump the market, is what they're telling you. And I think it's going to
cause a drive into low-cap stocks and into crypto. You're even seeing low-cap stocks like Roblox
starting to melt face. That's another name that people are severely underestimating, too.
You can do freaking anything in Roblox and build anything.
It's pretty cool.
But I don't want to make this a stock market show.
But the fact of the matter is, when you start to see exuberance in the equity markets, as we're seeing right now, we can only compare it to
what we saw in Q4 of 2020, where you had low cap stocks and low cap stock ETFs like Cathie Woods,
ARK Invest starting to melt up while altcoins don't really do much. You usually have a catch-up trade in the crypto market that plays catch-up where in like a
span of four or five, six days, you see these green candles across the board.
Of course, you are going to have certain sectors that are perform, but what I'm trying to say
is you usually have a catch-up trade in this market that is essentially equities on leverage.
We've seen this kind of price action before.
We've seen it with commodities.
You had gold absolutely soaring, while Bitcoin kind of does a little bit of nothing.
And then gold tops out, and BTC just roars.
We saw that happen last year, even.
Gold was on a surge from March until the summer summer while BTC did nothing but being arranged.
Now, I'm definitely not calling for all season, but I am calling for a gamma squeeze in this in this market.
If we're seeing a melt up in equities, if we're seeing the first true all time high break during Trump's second inauguration, he's been in office for about five months now.
And Big Daddy T called the bottom saying now is a great time to buy.
And he's saying that they're not going to stop and they're about a 10x growth.
They're telling you it's going to go a hell of a lot higher.
And this market has traded with crypto hand over fist in the same algorithm for almost seven years now.
Over seven years, actually.
I think since late 2016, that's when crypto truly intermingled with the equity markets.
Because I remember seeing how the Qs acted in Q4 of 2014.
And during that time frame, crypto was melting down viciously, where Bitcoin crashed
from, I think it was like a grand that year, all the way down to $140, $130, something like that,
where it ultimately bottomed out in January 2015. But completely different market back then.
And I'm loving what I'm seeing. It's going to be a great discussion.
I'm here joined by Donnie, Matt, and Prometheus.
I'm sure some of our other guys that usually come on the show will join in eventually.
But man, this FOMC meeting that we had almost two weeks ago, then this Fed meeting that
we had on last Wednesday, you always have to wait about a week maybe a week and a half sometimes
two weeks uh for a trade for a for volatility to kick in so you can get it you can get an idea
of where trend is headed i also saw this pretty interesting chart talking about
bullish and bearish divergences and so far this cycle anytime we've had a bullish divergence, I think it's on the weekly.
I think in October of 2023, we had a bullish divergence.
Then we had another one shortly after the yen carry trade.
And I believe we had a bearish divergence last year in April.
So anytime we have a weekly divergence whether it's bullish
or bearish it's typically indicative of a major trend um but nonetheless i want to welcome you
all i want to welcome up donnie want to welcome up chill and matt and prometheus and also welcome
all of you thank you all so much for tuning in uh and thank you by the way guys if you tuned into
the twitch stream yesterday i've been doing some Twitch streams on Sundays.
Twitch is an amazing platform, by the way.
And us over here at BecauseBitcoin,
we're actually going to also start streaming on Twitch
as a unit on Thursdays.
The show is called Ape Time.
You can check out our affiliates
and then scroll all the way down to Ape Time.
It's a pretty cool show.
We're going to be trading leverage and all that stuff.
It's going to be a 90 minute show and yeah,
some pretty cool stuff there.
If you guys want to check that out,
I'll post it up on the nest as we wrap up the show.
But before we get started,
guys,
before we get started,
if you all can go ahead,
show some love to the space,
show your love and appreciation.
And the best way you can do
that guys is by doing a few things only takes a handful uh of seconds probably only two seconds
and that is to open up the spaces tab and then once you guys do that you'll see a little link
that says x.com slash i slash spaces you guys can go ahead and click that and smash up the like
button if you're loving this price action smash up the like button. If you're loving this price action, smash up the like button.
If you're excited to be here, smash up the like button.
But also don't forget to hit smack whatever adjective that you want to use to go ahead and repost and retweet as it does a number of things.
Helps out the algorithm, helps to bring more awareness to the show, to the brand and all that good stuff.
And of course, i would be very much
appreciative uh if you guys do that you guys always do a great job so thank you all so much
for being here and showing some love to the space i'm gonna go ahead and uh kick it on over to donny
who um you know has joined me in this phrase that we've called the melt up since the s p was trading
at 4 800 and we're like, man, you know what?
It's the most aggressive sell that we've seen in stock market history.
I mean, guys, once again, I have to hit the table here.
We had an almost 30% drawdown on the QQQ, a near 25% drawdown on the S&P 500.
And all of that happened from peak to bottom in six weeks. It was the quickest drawdown on the S&P 500. And all of that happened from peak to bottom in six weeks. It was the
quickest drawdown. It was essentially a drawn out COVID fractal. And Trump came out and he's like,
now's a great time to buy within five minutes or seven minutes of the equity markets opening.
And here we are. We've coined the term melt-up, just like David Hunter,
and a melt-up is exactly what we've been experiencing,
and we're like, man, give it some time.
Once the S&P and the Qs are about 5%, 7% above the highs
that they had back in January and February,
and the setup that we're going to have in crypto
is going to be tremendous,
and I'd like to think that perhaps
we can have an echo bubble on others BTC that we had in Q4 of 2023, where I believe others BTC
rallied about 35% from October of 23 to mid-December going into Christmas. And we also saw some IWM
outperformance against the major indices.
But Donnie believes that, you know, things like Ethan's soul are going to go batshit insane.
And I hope that's true.
I really do.
And I hope it coincides with others, BTC rallying over 50%. So Donnie, man, we're witnessing history.
It's great to have you on the show again.
We've been documenting the story, guiding the people step by step.
But, man, you've been a huge value add to these spaces, man.
And a lot of people have made money and saved money due to your analysis on these shows, man.
So very much appreciative of you joining me on these shows on a weekly basis, brother.
So how was your weekend?
And how are you feeling
to the start of the week brother great to have you on hey bro thanks for the warm welcome it's
been good bro it's been good being on this show and uh growing throughout you know the last probably
year that we've been doing these you know always consistently learning always with the student
mindset trying to literally learn off anyone you can and keep bettering your game.
But funny you mentioned, you know, the history of these spaces and stuff.
I was literally looking back at some of the more iconic ones we did.
One actually particularly on December the 24th, 2024.
I actually just quote posted it while you were speaking.
I'll share it to the space, my recent post now, which is basically what's
materialized since we discussed back then, which is basically the dollar completely topped and
heading towards the mid to low 90s. So it's actually playing out. It's really nice to see.
And we've been saying that it's important to try and avoid being psyoped by as many narratives
when a particular chart is going up or down.
Same with the dollar.
When the dollar was falling, it was all about the sell America trade,
the end of US exceptionalism, and all this kind of stuff,
which we were fading and kind of laughing at because we knew
as soon as the stuff bottoms out, as soon as the administration
pivots from tanking the markets, essentially, that narrative is going to go out the window and you're going to recover just as quickly.
Not on the dollar, but on equities and obviously subsequently BTC.
So I remember that space.
We were talking about how we might actually potentially have to wait until April or May for us to recover from what's about to happen to the market.
We're rallying into Q1.
There was potential that we might not correct all the way down to 74K.
That was actually like a 10% scenario for me.
I didn't expect all of the crazy stuff we got.
I thought we'd maybe sweep like 85K or something like that.
But nonetheless, we went to 74k. And yeah, the
timeline did extend all the way up until April and May, we actually started rallying from the
bottom in April and hit the all time high in May, exactly like 2017. These charts still hold up to
this date. It's actually scary how close we are to that 2017 cycle with the Bitcoin chart, with global liquidity, with the dollar, with the Trump playbook, like everything.
Obviously, there's some deviations to the plans and stuff, but it's just crazy.
Except this time, their center focus for what asset they really want to push or asset class, you know, that includes stable coins, is crypto.
So a lot of things are aligned in our favor in this industry.
And I think it's only just starting to begin now.
As you can see, these charts unfolding now, right?
The dollar being sub 100 for the first
time in three years because of the COVID blowout, that's very significant.
That's a lot of signal that tells you that we've had a very tight global economy for the last three years, as you probably can already see,
just looking around, you know, your local businesses and things like that, they've been
struggling, right? Credit has been super hard to access, less customers, less clients all across
the board. But that's, you know, looking like it might change here. So we know that the Trump admin wants to push growth.
We already know a lot of these global economies and stuff
have already started easing in a big way.
Trump's been complaining about high interest rates
and things like that.
He's going to get what he wants eventually, right?
And that's also giving me more confidence
that the cycle is going to last longer
because if he's wanting to have interest rates lowered by almost upwards of 2% and the Fed chair gets replaced in 2026,
well, that's a massive easing catalyst in 2026, something that you can't avoid either.
So I think there's a lot still to come. And like I said, it's just starting to materialize now.
So you're already seeing it
with equities being at all-time highs uh today i really liked to see that mstr actually broke
local market structure to bullish it was the level that had to cross was basically like 395
and it's you know nicely above that and close the day uh above if it can just clear like 430
there's basically nothing but thin air
up to that 550 all-time high.
I think you could do it pretty fast.
But yeah, it's all looking like
it's starting to materialize in July.
I think there is like a decent chance
of a really big candle
coming for the Bitcoin chart
to the upside in July.
And I'm more so skewed towards the first two weeks of July
rather than the last two weeks,
but it'll be somewhere in there, right?
You have to give some sort of deviation to the dates.
Like every single chart is just telling you
that there is upside coming.
The USDT dominance chart, it's looking super heavy.
It had a nice SFP to around 5.25%.
The dollar is absolutely nuking
stocks at all-time highs low cap stocks doing well i posted that other chart the other day of
coin uh over total two which is just crypto without bitcoin and you know just by looking
at that chart like a year plus of 90% correlation with total two.
I'll just post it right now.
I was just looking for it.
Check that out.
This one went pretty viral.
It was such a good overlay.
Coin is basically leading the total two market,
and that's a really big divergence on the chart right now.
So it does feel like massive upside
is honestly lurking around the corner.
We're getting all of the checklist
that we were looking for in terms of
the macro side of things
basically confirming, right?
We had the SLR exemptions confirmed.
They're going to sign the big beautiful bill.
They're smoothing out the policy noise with these tariffs.
All that kind of stuff, right?
We know that they have to get all of this
resolved and also the World War III
that came out of nowhere.
We know that they have to get all of this stuff resolved because they have to deliver that economic positivity that they're promising
to the voter base that voted them in, the middle to low-income people. And we know they're on a
time constraint because we're already six months into 2025 with none of those positive things
actually being implemented yet. So time is on our side this time.
It's been a long wait, like six plus months,
since basically posting that DXY setup.
But yeah, it looks like it's just starting right now.
There's just every single chart you look at.
Bitcoin dominance, ETH BTC, Bitcoin itself.
ETH is getting nice catalysts today.
I heard some stuff, I haven't looked into it yet.
With Tom Lee wanting to start some sort of MSTR style company for ETH is getting nice catalysts today. I heard some stuff. I haven't looked into it yet. With Tom Lee wanting to start some sort of
MSTR style
company for ETH, it's just
all pointing up and to the right for this
entire sector. I think it's going to be great.
And I think the timeline's 6 to
18 months. So,
we'll see. But yeah, all
looking good. The zoomed
out 30,000 foot overview
looks amazing. Even the short term looks good.
So yeah, just the last letter of patience waiting for the inevitable, I feel like.
Yeah, that DXY chart sure is something else. And dude, you should take a look at this chart if you're in front of a computer.
in front of a computer pull up the arc innovation etf the uh ticker is a r kk and it it looks like
it's about going in a bull market um for the first time in multiple years it was just consolidating
in this range for three years and then had that vicious crash in Q1. And now it's up almost 2x off the
lows. And whenever you have an aggressive recovery like that, that is also backed by the S&P and the
QQQ having the quickest reversal in market history, you want to see things like low caps
starting to put in some numbers. And if you take a look at the rally that the ARK innovation had in Q4 of
2020, and then you look at something like a total three or others BTC, others BTC and also ETH BTC
were hemorrhaging down while this was rallying. And once ARK put in that final massive move in December of 2020,
you started to see alts moving during the second half of January. You started to see Doge run and
all that stuff. And my theory is, Donnie, it's not to say that ARKf has to go into all-time highs but maybe if we say surpass
the january 2022 open right which would be at like 94 bucks you could see others btc starts to gap up
pretty aggressively and we would see things like eith uh eith BTC put in a candle that it put in back in May, if you remember, where ETH BTC rallied like 50% in a couple of trading days.
two parts that look very similar.
And obviously, when you align the context of that,
we're waiting for basically an expansion.
It could actually play out.
I don't know if it plays out similarly.
Again, that was the COVID bubble
where everything just melted up hard
from an insane amount of liquidity just pumped everywhere.
But you could get an uptrend building here
based on that macro outlook of 6 to 18 months
of easier financial conditions and more liquidity.
I wouldn't see why this chart wouldn't go up.
I don't really know too much about ARK.
I know they're like a massive investment firm and all that stuff.
So it would make sense for them to trade exponentially higher in this sort of environment.
But yeah, if this starts to rally, then what the heck is crypto going to do? Like you said, it's going to absolutely melt.
of low cap tech stocks that aren't really that profitable like you remember during covid like
all those companies that got ppp loans and all that stuff and they were just forcing growth
without really any profitability and trump is telling you that the exact same playbook
is about to happen and i mean we're seeing this happening in the stock market slowly but surely
um i mean when you have things like roblox stock over the last over the last month up almost
20 and up over 2x off the lows you have to think like how crazy is this shit about to get? You have a stock that
was a massive IPO that everybody was expecting in 2021 that ended up... I think Roblox was the
one IPO that ended up marking the top, that first top that we had in april and then it made one more higher high
in november of 21 and that was the end of that cycle there man but uh yeah if she's making money
bro then it's about to get easy mode here momentarily and i think you might be onto something
man saying how q3 might actually be what people expect,
what people usually expect Q4 to be or Q1, right? Q1 was shitty. And perhaps the real Q1
performance that many of us expected could actually come in Q3. And it's indicative of
what we're seeing in the stock market, right? Yeah. Oh, sorry. Go ahead. Go ahead.
No, I was yapping way too much, man. Go ahead. You can go.
I was just going to say, we talked about this ages ago now. It's probably a few months back,
but we're talking about how seasonality at the moment with the current state of the internet,
you can see how terminally online everybody is especially the investor base right anytime you have news that you can leverage to push a narrative
it's very effective for people that you know not people that move the market but like they can
sign up the market right we're we're talking about how september of 2024 was meant to be bearish
because it's like a bearish month historically.
And they show those, you know, those, what are they called?
Those, those pictures where it shows like Q1 is bullish, Q2 is not and all that stuff.
And September ended up being bullish.
And then Q1 was meant to be super bullish.
It ended up being a local top.
And then we were talking about how, okay, there's this new narrative being
pushed now about a summer lull. And with the help of the tariff narrative, people went risk off at
the lows, expecting summer to get even worse. And then they were projecting that Q4 is 100%
going to be bullish. So it's a recession now, and I'm to re-enter the market in Q4 because it's 100% bullish and I'll just fade the rest of the year.
And then boom, you melt it up from 74K to 112K with no pullback.
And then now people are also saying that until Q4 is going to be a low period. So if you do start rallying now, it does set up Q4 to be potentially a nice local top
area somewhere around maybe the start of Q4 as it's very easy to push again online through all
these media channels that Q4 is going to be 100% bullish and people coming in or current
participants, they'll stay bullish because Q4 is 100% bullish. Why would it go down when Q4 every year
after an election year or whatever has stayed bullish?
Look at these gains, right?
But if you're looking at the actual charts, data, and everything,
it to me is looking like we're going to rally before Q4
and potentially we could actually top out in October or November locally.
I think locally, unless certain things start to slip.
But yeah, I'm thinking there's some sort of local top there rather than
all of Q4 is going to be bullish or something like that.
Yeah, and it would also be 18 months after the halving.
And over the last few cycles, we always top out 18 months after
the halving. I believe in 2016, the halving was in August.
No, no, in late July.
And then the cycle top for crypto total market cap was in Jan 2018.
And then the halving after that was in May of 2020.
We topped out 18 months later, November of 21.
And then this halving was in April of 24.
And 18 months after that would land us in October.
And maybe when the next Fed chair comes in, Donnie, that ends up being the bottom.
I don't think it will last that long. I don't think it will last that long that top well we'll see so you're
thinking like maybe top in October and then another quick drawdown that lasts like two three months
kind of kind of thing yeah something like that so by the 2026 yearly open, basically. Yeah, you could probably start rallying again in Q1.
The real Q1 is 2020.
The real Q1.
Yeah, but you know, there's many ways to play a PSYOP
or these seasonality things, right?
You could start Q1 with, you know, bearish candles
and people are, you know, they'll capitulate
and be like, oh, it's completely over.
And then the second month of Q1 is where it actually begins, you know, they'll capitulate and be like, oh, it's completely over. And then the second month of Q1 is where it actually begins, you know?
Yeah, I remember the yearly open for 2024.
I think the first couple of days were a bit choppy.
We rallied a little bit and then we nuked from 48K to 38K.
And it was a one-day candle too.
I remember that.
The ETF launch day.
And then people were like, all right, yo, IWM is topped out, which locally it did against the broader indices.
And we bottomed out at 38 and then rallied to 72, man. 72 man but man this uh solana etf news maybe maybe that's something that sets out a big top
and that coincides with soul going to like 350 or something like that um especially if it's
staking oh my goodness man um so i mean every other every other etf has been a local top so
i'm not sure why this one would be different.
A lot of hype going into the actual date of where it goes live.
Depends if it lines up with every other data point that I'm already looking at that's pointing to mid to late August, maybe even push through September.
Now that DXY is nuking pretty rapidly, sooner rather than later, it nuked a lot quicker than I anticipated or wanted, which is good.
It's probably going to unlock the next batch of global liquidity.
So maybe we could drag that pump on a little bit longer.
But yeah, somewhere around August, September is where I'm looking at for a local top
if we start rallying here, which I think is more likely than not by a big margin.
Yeah. Dude, you're able to actually buy stocks on solana right
now um the only question that i have is like this was this happened on terra with mirror protocol
and it didn't it didn't really end well um i know there's a company that's facilitating the oracle
and the way liquidity works on that but yeah tradifying crypto are
gonna you remember that post i put it's saying that for the first time since i entered markets
i feel like i have more edge and equities than i do in crypto and at some point stocks and crypto
are just going to be one huge asset class and we're starting to see that man like hood right now is acting
how we want some of our altcoins to move and hood isn't a small company they have a market cap of
well over 50 bill and it's starting to outperform things like hyperliquid um and i don't think this is going to be the last one, Donnie.
I know you were looking at... Hyperliquid?
Yeah, yeah.
I believe Hood has been outperforming Hyperliquid
over the last couple of weeks
and I know you've been looking at one stock
that I completely missed out on.
I saw this shit at like one bill market cap.
It's called IREN iron it's basically bitcoin
it's a bitcoin ai company i saw this at like eight bucks and i'm like damn this thing is pumping
aggressively off the low and then i saw you post about it i'm like there actually might be some confluence. And it kind of has the same chart that Hood did for some
time. It came out, it was down only, it consolidated for multiple years, and it's been trying to break
through 15 bucks per share for the longest time. Maybe you or Matt can touch upon that. It has a market cap
of three bill. And if you're seeing things like Riot doing quite well off of the lows and Bitcoin
treasury companies coming out of the woodwork and pumping aggressively out the gate, then perhaps
something that's been out in the market for multiple years could provide some alpha.
And this thing has a three bill market cap, which if you want to compare valuations and equities and in crypto, a three bill stock in the equity market is basically like a 30 mil market cap in crypto terms.
It doesn't take that much liquidity to move a stock at that level.
Yeah, wow.
What a beautiful chart, man.
This thing has gone perfectly from where I posted it.
I didn't actually invest in this one, bro.
I was just doing some analysis on it because Mike Alfred keeps posting about it.
And yeah, the chart looked really nice.
And I was just looking into them as a company, super sick company, to be honest.
But yeah, I never actually bought it or anything like that. But it does give confluence when these companies that are
centered around Bitcoin are rallying hard off the lows, right? If these companies are rallying hard
off the lows, what do you think Bitcoin's about to do with the setup that we have? Probably going
to start rallying hard. Yeah. And it's been making higher lows every single year
it bottomed out at a buck in january of 2023 then you had a higher low at three bucks in november of
2023 another higher low at almost uh five bucks in 2024 and then a higher low in april of 2025 at six bucks so even though we haven't broken
that 15 per share uh where we peaked or locally peaked in july of 24 it's been it's been steady
steady grinding honestly it looks really similar to hood it really does but um matt do you have any alpha on this thing
iron yeah they're um so you know i like to follow all the bitcoin miners and grade them
um they're one of the best infrastructure builders infrastructure plays in the space
they have got one of the lowest costs of energy and efficiency um out of
all the bitcoin miners um i've had them uh sometime back in the winter i upgraded them to like a tier
because they had just they were head and shoulders above um efficiency out of all the other bitcoin
miners and there's like you know there's over two dozen public Bitcoin miners,
so that's no small feat. Why they're pumping now is, you might have heard, CoreWeave is in,
again, serious talks to buy Core Scientific. So Core Scientific, Core is absolutely pumped
off the bottom as well. And now smart money, big money
is going to all the other serious contenders in AI infrastructure and bidding them up too. So
Iron, Riot's getting some love, Galaxy, Wolf, any of the other Bitcoin miner AI hybrids are getting a lot of attention,
thinking that, you know what, there's probably going to be more than one AI deal out here.
And if there is, who's going to be the next deal?
It's probably going to be the best in space out of the hybrids.
And that would definitely be iron.
So it makes sense.
Matt, so should we buy some leaps?
And what strike should we buy?
I mean, I don't know.
Honestly, if you weren't in it.
We talk trades here.
We talk trades here, man.
I mean, I think you correctly identified the time to make that was at $8 two, three months ago.
Here? I don't know.
Honestly, I would see now the new now everyone knows the news.
You know, you don't even follow Bitcoin miner space and you're savvy on the news.
So really, in my personal opinion, put it on your instant watch list, whatever.
put it on your instant watch list, whatever. And the very second that they announced that some big
merge or some big AI deal was signed and the ink is dry, then pile in. Because here's the downside
is, well, what if they don't sign something this month? What if they don't sign something next
month? Well, like where does the stock price go if that deal takes a couple weeks or even a month or two to uh get signed you know you might be able
to buy iron and buy your leapsit back at ten dollars or twelve dollars i'm not saying i'm
calling for iron to go down but the the news has absolutely uh been disseminated everyone's everyone's in on the trade and
understands what's going on so to me it's the worst time to buy call out of
the money calls so just by a spot just like regular spot then yeah it's worth
three bill and some of these miners have traded at a 10x premium compared to Iron. And it's still, just from a charting perspective,
it looks so identical to Hood in, say, Q1 of 24.
Right?
But I guess I'll just keep an eye on it.
Right, and if the stars align,
it'll absolutely repeat that hood fractal.
That would be great.
Right, but they haven't signed anything yet.
Like we're all, they're waiting on, everyone's, anyone's waiting with bated breath to see some sort of big merger or big deal or big, you know see they want to see a big ai hpc announcement
maybe it's with core weave maybe it's with something else the ceo has been keeping his
cards really close to the chest and like giving little teasers and hints but nothing definitive
and so obviously mike can't mike alford can't say anything either because he's literally on
the board so he can't give uh he can't give insider information um he told me some stuff
bro that's cool no no i'm joking but but what do you wait he told you some stuff but you still
don't have a position what are we supposed to take from that so no no comment so i mean you'd
be safer with yes i agree with wabi you're right you'd be safer with
shares or spot as you said and then and then as soon as as soon as the deal gets announced and
signed if you like it buyer calls that very morning you know matt so look man um x spaces
is rugged there's a lot of people that are not able to join the space, but we still have a couple
hundred people in here and the people want some alpha.
They're here to tune in for exclusive content that you won't find anywhere else.
This is an urgent market update, an urgent meeting, an urgent market meeting.
So Matt, look, man, we have Trump and Besant giving the inverse signal that they gave in February.
In February, they said, hold your horses.
Some massive volatility is incoming.
The stock market is sick.
It's about a puke its guts.
But give it six months, six to nine months.
Scott Besant said that on CNBC or MSNBC, whatever it's called nowadays.
You know, the fake news media people.
I like to strike fear and tell you to buy the tops and sell your bottoms.
And here we are five months later and you have the S&P hitting new all time highs.
The Q's hitting all time highs.
NVIDIA hitting all time highs since Q4 of last year.
Coin stock hitting all time highs.
Hood stock hitting all time highs, hood stock hitting all time
highs. What are some of the targets that you're expecting for Q3? And, you know, I remember-
We don't even have to go that far. I'm with Donnie. I think Bitcoin specifically and everything
that trades off of Bitcoin is going to move higher aggressively after this week.
So I'm very bullish the jobs report this week.
You've got private payrolls, U.S. unemployment, U.S. non-farm payrolls, and the initial jobless claims.
I'm expecting meets and beats on all of that.
And that's just the catalyst that bulls are going to want to shove Bitcoin into escape velocity.
I posted up in the nest.
That is the cleanest chart I've ever seen since a year ago.
Remember, Wavi, we were all in here a year ago, and I was trying to talk people off a ledge.
Bitcoin at 50k.
I'm saying, like, buy.
What are you guys doing?
Buy all you can below 55 and at 50.
That was the cleanest setup I have seen all 2024.
This is the cleanest setup I had seen all 2024.
This is the cleanest setup I've seen all 2025.
Like this is ready.
This is launch commands are set and we're just in the countdown phase.
And this week I think could be the catalyst.
So you want to see, real quick,
you want to see meets and beats
on all the jobs data this week
and then just watch
bitcoin uh launch like a rocket ship over the long holiday weekend matt bro check out this uh
post up in the nest that i just shot up it's literally a lower time frame version of the 2024 range that we played.
Yeah.
Even the capitulation.
49k with low was the in-carry trade, and we just
had the World War III FUD. 98.2k
on the dot.
And they were screaming, wait until
92, man. They were
screaming, wait until 92, which honestly
was criminal.
What did I say?
But Wabi, what did I say? Remember? I was like, screaming, waiting until 92, which honestly was criminal. It's criminal activity.
But Wabi, what did I say?
Remember?
I was like, you're not going to get a close below 102.
You had a little wick.
You had a wick.
You didn't even get a daily close below 102. Matt, I think the next time we see sub 100K,
the bear market is already in full force.
Well, yeah.
I'll say that.
I'll say that with confidence.
You had a, I I mean I think this is
yeah that's a great
chart though Donnie
that's a great setup I think
whether you're talking 2023, 2024, 2025
we've seen these
call it 200 day consolidations
year after year after year
it might look a little different
but when you're right when you zoom out they all seem to rhyme and we we had ours early this year it already happened in wing
in winter and spring you know we already had our 200 days of uh of consolidation we already
shook out all the the weak hands and the uh the ogs who couldn't handle it one more cycle. Now we're ready to launch for the next leg higher.
Matt, were you trading stocks in the late 90s?
Bullish macro news is all...
I'm sorry, go ahead, Wabi.
What'd you say?
No, I was just going to ask.
Did you trade stocks in the late 90s by any chance?
No, no.
I'm not.
No, I'm just a millennial.
I remember our fathers and uncles trading all of those tech stocks
and internet stocks and losing their shirts
you're right it's it's totally just this it's this 20 years ago yeah it's the exact same environment
but they were doing the same sort of dj and like oh this this thing has internet in its name
you know on their on their dial up or on their on on their 56k modems.
Yeah, that's what I'm thinking,
because even though they had rates elevated,
it was pro-growth.
It's basically the Bill Clinton setup.
And during Clinton's presidency,
it was probably the best time to be in markets,
probably ever.
Everything traded so cleanly,
and every president has
their unique
monetary policy that affects
certain markets.
With Bush, it was all about real estate.
It was all about hard assets.
Obama, throw a
fucking dart at anything
at anything
in the tech
market. He was like super, super, super pro-tech,
but more big tech than anything in my opinion, I think.
And then with Trump, it was pro-growth,
so you're going to have things like that.
Well, this half of the decade,
I mean, it's hard to believe,
but we're over half the decade in.
But I think you've got to give it to AI.
AI has this decade.
It's the biggest market cap in equities.
NVIDIA has taken that number one spot.
It's what all the other Magnificent Seven are dabbling in
or trying to get good in from, you know, everyone from Microsoft
to Google to Tesla to meta, you name it, they're all trying to spin up their own
heavy competitor in AI space. AI is this decade. So I mean, if you weren't, if you're not just
all in on Bitcoin, then I assume you've got massive bags of AI.
It's the other winner.
Yeah, it really started when Biden passed that chips bill, didn't it?
In November of 22, where NVIDIA started to chat up.
That was the bottom, wasn't it? That was the low.
Yeah, I mean, every president has his nooks and crannies but um there's always alpha
if you seek it and i mean dude just take a look at the way the market was during this presidency
it was fucking awesome even the bear market was not as brutal as say 2001 to 2020 to 2003 that that was brutal the bush bear market that was absolutely
brutal um yeah but uh yeah i guess i'll uh i'll pass it over to frankie frankie what's up man
yo what's going on how we feeling happy uh i'm good man what's going on? How we feeling? Happy New Day. I'm good, man. What's going on?
Not much. I wanted to ask
you guys a question.
See if anyone has any thoughts on this.
Seeing news about this
prospect of a shadow
fed and
basically
naming a successor to Powell
months, maybe even close to a
year before his, you know,
his time's actually up.
I know I hear the two popes analogy thrown around a lot.
You know, there were two popes in the 1500s that went terribly.
What do you guys, do you have any thoughts on that?
Do we think that that will be like good?
Like we'll start taking our lead from the new guy or do you think it's just going to
create more confusion, more uncertainty, and basically just make people panic. So,
I mean, they could announce his successor early, but he'd be like a non-voting member of the Fed.
And you've got a few of those now. Like, they're nice for a CNBC soundbite,
but they don't get a vote, you know, when it actually comes down to, okay, here's the next FOMC and what's our Fed funds rate going to be?
Like, they can opine all they like, but they won't get a vote. That would be very interesting and you could definitely trade off of, okay, well, clearly
six months from now or a year from now, we see where they want this market to go or how
relaxed Fed policy might be in the medium term future.
in the in the medium term future um in the short term uh they won't get a vote so i wouldn't
i wouldn't expect it to make uh that difference yeah because in my head i'm thinking like okay
you know will markets care if you know powell comes out you know gives an update tries to steer
you know policy for the next month two months whatever and then you know, gives an update, tries to steer, you know, policy for the next month, two months, whatever. And then, you know, four hours later, the next chair does a, you know, does a presser
and, you know, completely contradicts him. Maybe markets just write it off. They say,
you know, we're not worried about what he's saying right now. He's not, he's not the guy.
Trump's like a showman though He loves Keeping
The market and
The world captive
To what he might announce
I don't see him announcing it early
He loves to build up that tension
Make it a full grand
Will he won't he
Speculation back and forth
He's going to listen to everyone
He's going to talk to everyone he's gonna
talk to everyone he's gonna he's gonna float some names something someone controversial someone
mundane and see how everyone thinks like if anything i i would put money in polymarket that
says trump waits to the 11th hour before announcing anything just to like build up that tension and the drama. Wouldn't Basant be the new Fed chair in a way?
Because Yellen mattered a hell of a lot more than Powell
from those lows in 2022.
Wouldn't you agree, Donnie?
Basant is actually the new Fed chair.
If you're strictly following markets,
unless there's direct QE or they start hiking rates again,
the person to follow is Basant.
He is Trump's right-hand man, and he has a bazooka
from all the COVID stimulus and all that crap that they injected into the economy.
He has a bazooka.
He has a green button, and it's big.
And you want to know what else?
It works.
Basant has a big green button, and it works,
and he is ready to press it at any time at full throttle.
That's basically what it is, bro.
It's like even in 2023 and 2024, mostly 23, right?
And actually a lot of 24, there were hiking rates or keeping them the same elevated.
And I think Frankie mentioned this last time.
They were injecting tons of liquidity
from the reverse repo into the markets,
which is why we had that crazy melt up in stocks from 2023,
which is up only from there
because they were just injecting,
I think $2.5 to $3 trillion worth of liquidity into the markets.
So if, you know,
and the Fed just passed the SLR exemptions as well.
They're looking to push Fannie and Freddie publicly.
That taps into like $5 trillion in potential stimulus.
Not that they would drive it all at once, right?
But it's there to be tapped into.
So yeah, it's more like treasury side QE, stealth QE,
that they're kind of deregulating the banking sector to unlock that liquidity.
So the Fed is still important.
It's another metric to obviously keep watch
of they're not irrelevant but the main relevancy seems to be pivoting towards the treasury side
and a lot of actually a lot of top tier macro analysts are starting to agree with us now
like michael howell he's literally saying focus on the treasury and focus on total stable coin
issuance you know moving forward it's going to be a great indicator of where things are going.
And that's what I...
Oh, no, go ahead.
Yeah, I was going to pass this over to Matt.
Matt, so we can expect maybe something,
if we have a pullback,
maybe a pullback to the bull market support band.
I think that's Ben Cowan's thing.
We usually have a pullback around there
sometime in August or September.
Maybe the thing that has us bottom during that next major inflection point
is the end of quantitative tightening.
Do we think quantitative tightening officially ends this quarter?
It's been a regime that's been going on for three years,
and at this point it's actually kind of stupid
when you have Truflation already having a one handle and you know flat out if it
continues i think trump brings powell into into into the oval office like he did in uh in january of 2019 and yells at him uh history doesn't repeat itself but it often rhymes
like dude why can't powell just turn on the fucking money printer dude just do a quarter
or two of kiwi you're like 85 000 years old all of your great great grandkids are buying far coin
and spx 6900 and useless coin now they're buying hype pump their
bags dude like their bags what's wrong with you grandpa you're not paul volcker you're 510 not
6 8 yeah but didn't you just hear what donnie said like the qe is coming from treasury yeah
you're looking at the wrong you're looking in the wrong direction.
Don't worry about J-Pound.
Oh, go ahead, Donnie.
I was just going to say, I holistically view it as like,
it's a much trickier metric to track.
Therefore, retail has no clue what's going on.
They're focused on the Fed funds rate.
And they're just looking at that as the signal to enter the market.
Whereas the stealth QE through the banking side is so much harder to track.
And it's kind of like a front that they're putting on.
They're seeming like they're disciplined in their QT and all this kind of stuff, keeping rates high because this and that.
And in the background, you're having a ton of stimulus coming from other pockets of liquidity.
So yeah,
just have to pretty much look at the treasury side.
And starting with these SLR exemptions
that already confirmed them, that's
massive in the short term.
So, yeah.
J-PAL's doing
fine, honestly, Wabi.
And I just had a look at Truflation.
Truflation says 2.26.
So, whether we're using US CPI or Truflation, they're both about 2.1, 2.2, we'll say.
So if Fed funds rate is giving us a 2.1 or 2.2 inflation reading, then it's right where
it needs to be.
Don't mess with it. Don't raise it. Don't
lower it. That's fine. Let Treasury work the controls and steer this ship. And just know
nothing unexpected from the Fed. Just be quiet and just help with the repo, overnight repo, if and when need be.
And then the metric that I look at, again, this week is super important.
The way to grade if this is all working is what does the monthly jobs report say?
ADP private payrolls, U.S. non-farm payrolls, unemployment rate, and the initial jobless claims.
We are going to see on multiple metrics if they're getting it right.
And if jobs are meeting and beating expectations, they're getting it right.
And don't worry about the rest.
Just long your longs.
Check your watch list.
Check it twice.
See what you want to increase your position in,
because that's the ultimate barometer if things are working out. And long story short, we've seen
nothing but positive jobs data for the whole first half of 2025. If we get it again in June,
that seals the deal. That's six months of positive jobs data
when everyone and their cousin was telling you, oh my God, tariffs and Liberation Day,
you got to sell your entire portfolio and bury your head in the sand. So I'm expecting
meats and beats. I'm expecting bullishness. This Bitcoin setup is a multi-month bull flag that just wants an excuse to rocket higher.
And I'm ready for it.
Well, guys, I think that is a great note to end the show.
So listen, I want to thank every single one of you that have tuned in today.
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Thank you all so much for joining me.
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This was an incredible cook session that's lasted just over
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So with that being said, it was an amazing stream with you guys. Thank you, Donnie. Thank you Frankie. Thank you, Matt
Thank you everyone who spoke today shout out to all of you guys in the audience
Thank you all so much for supporting what we do here at because bitcoin we've been doing this for almost three years so guys if you've
been with us since the beginning thank you all so much it's been a fantastic journey and we intend
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just to say this in advance, ladies and gentlemen, we won't be producing shows on July 4th since
markets will be closed. Usually when markets are closed, we don't do any live streams. So
we might have the weekly wrap-up show on Thursday or even Wednesday
because usually I like to have one day where I just focus on the Discord
for the afternoon streams.
But thank you all so much.
Huge shout-out to my Lord and Savior, Jesus Christ,
for allowing me another day of health to talk markets with you all.
Without him, nothing is is possible and all good
things come through him god is good all the time all the time god is good so this is wabi signing
out guys i'll see you tomorrow take care bye byeありがとうございました。 Thank you. I'm going to go. Music so so
Oh Thank you. so .
