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Market Talk: Will 2026 be bullish or bearish!? 200k BTC or 35k!?
Recorded: Dec. 31, 2025 Duration: 1:44:49Space Recording
Short Summary
Crypto enthusiasts are gearing up for a potential altcoin season in 2026, driven by macroeconomic factors and significant events like the SpaceX IPO. Despite current market stagnation and volatility, discussions highlight optimism for growth opportunities in altcoins and the importance of strategic asset selection.
Full Transcription
Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. It's been a mystery, still try to see, why something you could have so bad.
But on the low-air streets, the taste of the business, Love will survive somehow
Same way
One love needs to fly
One heart bears this time
One love needs to fly What the hell is right and right You are told to run out
Who will be the love of all
What the hell is right and right
So many strong men so many wrong And the love was great. That you never picked.
The fighting is worth the love that's saved.
One love is the fight.
One love is the fight.
One love is the fight. Oh Oh,
Now you can Oh One love beats the fire, one heart beats the fire, one heaven's do it. Okay. Goodbye. So long.
Right.
It's nice. Thank you. Music Thank you. Yo, what's going on, guys?
I want to do a mic check first.
I got a DM saying that they're not able to hear.
Am I good?
Okay.
All right.
First and foremost, I have no idea why anyone is active here today.
We should all be enjoying New Year's Eve with our families.
But there is some volatility, I guess, in the equity markets.
And crypto just remains flatlined, stapled.
BTC in like a $200, $300 range now, at least today.
There really hasn't been much outside from the initial spike down right when the burgers woke up.
And I guess today is technically the last trading day of the year, and I'll see all of you next year.
So we're going to go ahead and cook for you guys.
Gosh, not much is happening on chain outside of the USD1 coins on Seoul.
I'd like to see some Seoul price action actually have some volatility instead of trading in between a $10 range.
It's quite sad, to be honest.
I want to see some volatility.
Maybe we get that next week.
I know Trump is going to announce his new Fed chair selection.
We've been discussing that over these last few shows during our YAP sessions.
But for those that are tuning in, geez, you guys are absolutely dedicated to the game.
And you do it for the love of it.
Because truthfully uh the equity
markets are where most of the price action is at uh we saw precious metals have a massive correction
earlier this week um and if that happened in the crypto market the correction that you saw in silver
that's like a 20 gap down for bitcoin and speaking, man, the rally that it's had over the last eight months, Prometheus put this in his personal profile, a 200% rally.
And, I mean, everyone's talking about silver now.
It's like Dogecoin back in 2021.
Everyone was talking about it.
And everyone thought it was going to hit a dollar.
And it didn't.
Now you have people talking about silver going to hit a dollar and it didn't now you have people talking about uh silver going to 200 bucks um i'll be honest man if silver goes to 200 and btc
just barely touches 130k i think we might be exposed to the wrong asset class and we might
have to make a few adjustments man tommy what's going on with this asset class man? I I hope you can provide
some some potential solutions a
prescription
Maybe you become a doctor and you euthanize whoever's in control of these buys and sells
Man, we're gonna go in and get started guys you guys already know what to do just click
the spaces tab right above the right above the uh nest the box whatever you want to call it
there's that nice link just hit the like button hit the repost button and we're gonna go ahead
and cook for you guys so um i'm not really sure what to yap about i'll be quite honest so i'm gonna start off by saying sully how are you
spending um new year's man i saw market check i was surprised to see tucker i need to have a
proper conversation with tucker after this man this is this is obscene with what's going on
here in the markets sully what's up bro up, bro? What's up, Wavi?
The lighter TGE was pretty abysmal, wasn't it, man?
Just another down-only TGE, man. And there's really nothing to look forward to in 2026
outside of, I guess, the power of friendship, right?
If anyone tuned in to yesterday's show,
you know, you start to see old faces come about we saw naka he's calling for it it's it's quite weird right because anytime
naka has come on over the last literally like over the last um 15 months it ends up being uh
kind of like the pivot point before massive volatility.
He came on in early April.
That marked a low.
He came on right after the yen carry trade.
That marked a low.
And I'll be honest, man.
Like, I don't really think we melt up aggressively until Powell leaves office.
And, dude, I'll be honest.
I don't even know what a bull run is, bro.
I really don't. It actually is absolutely abysmal out there outside of a few pocket change trades.
And, man, I think your Chud Annihilation Fractal actually might need to happen, dude.
Chud Jacks need to be blown out.
Everything must happen at once so that everything comes to an end,
and then nothing happens, right?
I even saw some dubious speculation how, like, everyone's...
Not everyone, man. I think that term is used up a lot there's uh
a lot of profiles with followings that are saying hey kiwi is coming back and all that stuff
that kind of stuff doesn't happen until markets implode there's never actual kiwi and
zerp and all that stuff until markets crash.
And, you know, I understand when these topics are discussed on Spaces,
it's like macro LARP being macro Doomer.
People don't know what they're talking about on Twitter,
but these are just facts, man.
These are just absolute facts.
And I don't really think crypto is is gonna change
its ways as far as it being like pvp and rotationary games man um probably not until like 2027 going
into the having run when trump finally leaves office um i honestly think he's like the worst thing to happen in crypto if i'm being quite frank like
probably worse than i i really don't know because when obama was in charge dude we had eth come out
and normies were able to participate in that ico so probably the worst crypto president in history
until price changes and then maybe he'll be the greatest of all time.
But I know I extended my app a little bit.
And by the way, any of you guys in the audience, if you guys want to come up here, give your thoughts on the market.
I just ask that, like, just please don't say, oh, I'm bullish because everyone's bearish.
Because then, like, my brain will actually leak ice cream.
So I'd like to have some informal discussions
about what you're seeing in the market
outside of, like, I guess the usual takes.
Everyone wants to talk about, like, sentiment is at its lowest.
Bro, sentiment has been at its lowest since like 24k when we when we hit 24k
in august of 23 off sentiment worse than ftx and then we have 48k ah sentiment worse than ftx
and it's like what do you mean dude ftx sentiment was like no runners at all on chain didn't even
exist there was nothing to do on solana the only thing to do on soul on chain was
to buy radium orca cleanosaurs and like two other nft projects on soul it was nothing to do on soul
at all whatsoever but that's my rant man i'm sorry i should have passed the mic over to you sully
but i just wanted to get this off my chest, man, before we go off and won't
speak to each other until next year, man.
But it's off to you, bro.
No, thanks, Wavi.
I'm glad you got the rant in, man.
It's been a frustrating market, right?
At least as far as opportunity to not just even like invest in altcoins and
things like that, but just from a volatility standpoint, we really haven't had that much
opportunity, right? Like price moved down, but it really wasn't outside of the October 10th week,
the opportunity cost based on like the timing that it took for that move to play out really wasn't you know
great uh so i think everybody is kind of like coming into the end of this year with very negative
market sentiment uh altcoin sentiment's probably as bad as i can remember uh honestly it's on par
maybe even worse with that like do you guys remember when eath had like eight straight or
nine straight it might have been even more than that that. Red weekly candles in a row. I'm kind of remembering that period of thecoins and crypto as a whole have fundamental utility
beyond things like Bitcoin and then maybe like Hyperliquid or I guess, you know, my shitcoin in
here too, et cetera, et cetera, whatever. But there's not the point is there really are not
many things that we look at in crypto right now. And're just saying like yeah that has a very obvious uh pmf for the future what is there to be excited about and i'm looking at bitcoin dominance
uh kind of as a barometer here and my view of it is well you know assuming bitcoin dominance
doesn't make new cyclical highs i'm inclined to think that we are reaching a high time frame
inflection point on it and if that's's the case, right, if Bitcoin dominance is potentially going to enter a multi-year downtrend from here,
it's actually exactly the time where people should be looking for the right altcoins realistically to
be getting invested in. Now, the hard part is asset selection, right? Because crypto has so
many coins. And there were countless cases throughout this market cycle where a chart looked
good but there was no reason for it to ever pump again uh so yeah asset selection will be difficult
going forward but i do think in general you know trying to find these these products that don't
have fundamental value to you necessarily but have a clear, right? That product market fit that we saw, for example,
Solana 2023, 2024, the shitcoin casino memes. It was perfect for just rapid fire on-chain
utilities. So I guess, you know, trying to, right, try to find the next trade of the cycle.
It sounds easier said than done, but I think you guys understand what I'm saying kind of when I'm
putting that out there. But as far as the overall market goes, I mean, I think we're at a very
binary point where we could either, yeah, we're either going up or we're either going down. But
look, I mean, when we kind of take a look at the, we'll look at ETH, for example, right? ETH has
pulled back down all the, I mean, currently trading around 3K, pulled back into 2,600.
But I look at that structure that ETH formed in May and June, right?
The range from like 2,100 to 2,800 before we marked up to basically 5K over the summer.
And that structure is still holding. Now, there's no guarantee that
continues to hold, but I'm kind of viewing like this pivot on ETH and the structure, the value
that we're forming here on Bitcoin as a pivot point, right? Are we going to see further
capitulation? Are we going to see the market rally? I'm keeping it very simple for myself.
And I'm just going to say I'm not going to fade a break from this compression that we've been in for the last four to six weeks on majors,
just based on the amount of time and positioning that we have accumulated throughout this little
range. And I think the context as well, when we take it in totality. Now we'll kind of shift back
to Bitcoin. I'm kind of in the camp that if we're breaking the highs from early December around like
$94,000, $95,000, the bottom is probably in.
And I'm going to say that specifically because I'm looking at equity indices.
I'm looking at financials like JP Morgan.
I just think if we are going higher on crypto, or really if the S&P breaks above 7K, you're going to have this almost self-fulfilling prophecy of a melt-up occurring.
And you have all of these favorable tailwinds for equities that are very real.
And at the same time, volatility has been…
Tommy, did you just say melt-up?
I did, but I want to be careful with that kind of verbiage, right?
Because it hasn't confirmed yet.
And I could also see us dumping pretty hard from here.
Like when I look at crypto charts, specifically majors, everything looks like it's either
holding the lows, like Bitcoin, for example, it's holding the April lows before trying
to make another push higher.
So we technically haven't broken structure bearishly
on a higher timeframe yet. At the same time, it's like also what you would see before the last leg
down, usually the most aggressive leg down of a downtrend. So, you know, I think we'll just kind
of have to see a little bit. To be honest, like the structure on Bitcoin reminds me a lot of what we saw in February and March of 2023, where we had this range, we had a double top.
And then when Bitcoin traded back down, not quite to range low, but basically to it in the same way that we are right now, you saw volatility completely dry up.
And a lot of people were putting bets on that being the bottom.
Volatility got very underpriced, which I do think it still is right now.
So I think no matter what, we're about to see some pretty volatile price action.
And what happened?
After that little consolidation, we had SVB and the Black Swan, which led to a huge nuke.
But then right after, we recovered and had that super, even more volatile move to the
upside.
So maybe we're about to see something like that. even more volatile move to the upside. So maybe we're about
to see something like that. I would say gun to my head. I'm not really expecting the downside to be
over. But I also think you need to be pretty aware of the fact that if equities do break out
above 7K on the S&B, if financials keep breaking out, we probably will melt up and that will
carry these. I mean, it would start with things like
Bitcoin, ETH and BNB, and then I think eventually move down the risk curve. But I think that's
something that people should be aware of. So again, we're just at this like very binary point
in the market. Yeah, it could go up, it could go down. There's nuance to it. But I would say right
now I'm kind of leaning just based on the look of
of some altcoins right now that the next volatile move will probably be down
and i'm hopeful i'm hopeful wabi that fractal i posted earlier this week
i'm hopeful we get some upside volatility kind of like immediately following that downside
like immediately following that downside. I think the period is beginning to feel
comparable. And I just think the most like expected outcomes for this market right now are
either bull runs not over, V recover, or I would say like the most popular outcome right now is
like, oh, don't short here. We're going to get an extended rally and shoulder like 2022.
And I would say the number one reason I do not think that is going to happen is because of Bitcoin dominance.
Why do I say that, right?
Well, OK, altcoins, altcoin USD is down significantly more than Bitcoin USD this year, right?
So if altcoins are rallying aggressively, if Bitcoin dominance is breaking down from what I believe are cyclical highs, and I think that's the key word here, right? So if altcoins are rallying aggressively, if Bitcoin dominance is breaking
down from what I believe are cyclical highs, and I think that's the key word here, right? Cyclical
highs. Because to me, you're not going to see altcoins rally on a Bitcoin shoulder
during a cyclical top for Bitcoin dominance. Like those two ideas just aren't necessarily compatible to me.
So I think if Bitcoin dominance is breaking down, not only is the bottom in for Altcoin
USD, but the top would be in for Bitcoin dominance.
I just don't think the scenarios really favor like a prolonged shoulder.
And I know there's a lot of people looking for that, right?
But there are a lot of buyers underwater.
Here's the last thing I'll say. I'm kind of using Pomp's treasury company entry price, which was like $98,000, $99,000
as a pretty important inflection point for the market because I'm kind of thinking to
myself like, all right, well, that's clearly where the dumb money came in was above that
he came in was above that price.
price.
Speaking of price, man, price actually has to do something, man.
Matt posted that meme of the guy with the stick saying, come on, do something with the
BTC chart.
But at least, you know, we have broccoli running, right?
CZ's dog.
That's up like 20%, man.
Yeah, I'm looking at top gainers today on CoinGecko just to see what, like, people are buying.
I mean, dude, what are your thoughts on the, speaking of on-chain, like, white whale,
do you think that's going to cross 100 mil? Do you think, like, that's kind of topped?
And I ask this because, like, I think the last big runner that we had over the last few weeks as far as market cap was Avicii.
And that took, like, every single large account to sh shill and that topped out just below 100 mil
so right now that seems to be like the local ceiling that high was hit a couple of days after
wait no yeah vc topped out like right before the monthly open.
So that's kind of like, I guess, our on-chain ceiling, right?
Whether it's in the summertime, Useless led that rally.
And that kind of set off a few things to go over 100 mil.
Things like a troll, for example, that thing sent to almost 300 mil.
Got the Coinbase listing and all that stuff so dude do you think
white whale could actually save the trenches man save the trenches i don't know about that but uh
you know i can't rule out that it can make a move to 100 mil it's a genuinely funny meme um
at least like i think the jokes about it on on CT are maybe a little bit funnier than
the actual meme, but, uh, you know, I would say it's, it's either already topped or you're
going to see it make a move towards a hundred mil or more within the next few days.
Uh, just looking at the structure of it.
But yeah, I mean, obviously on chain's been fairly devoid of opportunity outside of relatively
speaking, like not, not super big coins.
I know there are a few things that have run to like anywhere from 10 to 30 million on chain,
but trying to extract maximum value out of assets of that size is just not really my strength.
So I've been kind of avoiding it.
But I mean, the chart looks good for White Whale.
The meme is good.
Hopefully, I mean, I'm obviously never going to hope for people to lose money on chain.
That's kind of like a very, it's not ever going to be a good thing when people in the ecosystem are losing money,
especially when they're going to be potential future buyers of the assets that you guys want to hold.
They're going to be potential future buyers of the assets that you guys want to hold.
So, yeah, no, I mean, I hope the best for all my on-chainers, all my lighter airdrop farmors.
But, yeah, just basing it off the chart, I would say it looks like it wants to go higher, that it's probably accepting up here.
But if it breaks down, I mean, it's just going to end up like every other solana shit coin right now which can't be all that surprising um dear god in heaven bro is
another tombstone about to be embarked i mean it it kind of comes down to what soul is gonna do
here and i'll be real oh my gosh that's the worst, that is the worst thing to happen to a coin.
It's dependent on what soul does, bro.
Soul looks so fried.
I'm going to be honest.
Yeah.
Yeah.
I mean, the market doesn't really start moving until things like soul and sui start moving.
And you would need hyperliquid to actually outperform in a big way.
you would need hyperliquid to actually like outperform in a big way um it's kind of crazy
bro how like people are are uh not not not people i'm sorry but like there are a few individuals
that have made some questionable analysis right i have to be more formal here that are comparing
hyperliquid to like an avax of last cycle but the thing is man like avax was dependent on l1
activity whether it's hyper liquid it's mainly volume on perps and that's an up only trajectory
like i i i saw some vc guy um by vc i mean like he works for like one of those low float high FEV tokens and he was saying
how like you know the reason why projects with good tech and all that stuff tend to suffer
is because of these like pre-market perpetual markets where before a token even comes out right
there's price discovery I think Bonad went up like 3x pre-market,
and then the closer it got to TGE, it was just depleting.
So perps, in a way, perps are good, right?
But in a way, as far as price discovery for TGE tokens,
it's very, very, very abysmal if there's nothing to do on the chain immediately.
But as far as the growth of the ecosystem, perps are incredible.
And the best way to ride that would be hyperliquid.
Just like ETH is a perfect asset to hold when there's low rates and there's easing involved, right? Easy monetary policy,
because that's when DeFi is fruitful, right? If you have a cheap economy, the cost of borrowed
capital is very low, then you can go on Aave and I don't know, maybe we'll have food farms again and tyke goes into like 10 000 apr
farms like he did in 2020 and maybe like the 10k eth prophecy fulfills right man make make uh the
om forks great again i i mean i don't think it's possible for that to happen right now for the
record because there's just way too much skepticism around the space.
And I also think just in general, I mean, participants kind of had like the three three concept.
If you guys remember that, if you were around for twenty twenty one, you know what I'm talking about.
I think we've kind of like simplified the three three concepts into just what meme coins are as a whole.
the 3-3 concept into just what meme coins are as a whole. So I don't even know if people would
even understand a product like Ohm right now, which is arguably part of the problem.
But yeah, I mean, I don't know. I'm optimistic on Hyperliquid at least. I think that you will
likely see now that lighter incentives have ended,
the opportunity cost to trade there is going to be a lot higher because a lot of the market makers
who are incentivized to market make and ensure, because that's like basically how it functions,
right? You have no fees per se, but that your fee is effectively what the spread is. And so if
market makers aren't getting incentives to be market making there anymore, you're probably going to have spreads that are not quite as tight.
So you will be paying fees to trade on lighter again.
I think people are going to move back to Hyperliquid.
I do think there will be another airdrop at some point, probably multiple, quite frankly.
multiple, quite frankly. But I don't think it's fair to—I think I really was probably
closer to like an Ethereum and lighter is closer to maybe the L1 trade in that sense.
And didn't Hyperliquid TGE during that pullback we had in Thanksgiving of last year where all it's got crushed.
I remember that.
I remember that very,
very, very clearly.
I guess spaces are having some issues. I can't bring Matt up
for whatever reason.
But,
Prometheus, dude, are you going to
be taking anyone out to the woodshed?
Bro, I'm taking nothing out to the
woodshed, bro. Nobody's going out to the woodshed. Bro, I'm taking nothing out to the woodshed, bro.
Nobody's going out to the woodshed.
Have you seen any people getting too far ahead of their skis?
I've seen a lot of people getting too far ahead of their skis.
Exactly, man.
So, I guess I'll ask you, what are you doing for New Year's Eve Eve dude I'm really shocked that like anyone is active on New Year's Eve man that is like in that is more shocking than
like this this kind of price action man like it is so muted like who is buying and selling right now. Nobody. Have you seen price?
Yes, man.
It's so abysmal, man.
It's a show show. Yeah, it's really bad.
It's really, really, really bad.
Yeah, and I agree with Tommy, by the way.
I think there's going to be a big move
next week.
Like a huge move.
And hopefully it's like a wave of breath, man.
I mean, let's hope. Mark has been freaking dead for like five weeks.
Yeah, dude.
It's been
hit 82, 83,
rallied to the yearly open,
and that's
about it, man. Dude, if you look
at where all the volume has been transacted over
the past five weeks, it's literally between like 86 and like 90 um like a little over 90 it's like between like
86 and 91 it's like a 5k range it's pretty bad but low-key hidden alpha for any of you that have
a costco membership and like costco hot dogs they sell a big pack of Costco hot dogs. Super, super, super good
investment for anybody out there listening. Highly, highly, highly recommend. Just cook the
whole pack and then throughout the week, you just slowly eat all the hot dogs in the pack.
Why not just like freeze them? If they just freeze them, right, so you can preserve them?
In case marking conditions get even worse, man, a pack of hot dogs can last you two months, bro.
Yeah, yeah.
The thing is, what you really need to do is go out and get one of the 60 pound bags of rice and invest in rice futures
and then what you're gonna go do after that is you're gonna go invest in a 60 pound bag of sugar
and then you're gonna invest in a 40 pound bag of salt and then you're gonna invest in a 60 pound
bag of beans and then you're gonna corner the market on costco hot dogs so when the world ends you literally could just eat forever dude isn't it crazy dude i like america uh functions based
off of costco retail activity like if costco wasn't around dude we'd probably be in a great
depression costco is an absolute diamond in the rough. It's an absolute beauty.
And they say that America has never invented anything.
Has anyone ever heard of Costco?
Walmart?
Toys R Us?
Home Depot?
Hamburgers? Yeah, hamburgers are pretty good.
Hamburgers are pretty good.
Whoever decided to grind up a bunch of beef and then form it into the shape of a patty and put it on a grill.
Smart man or woman. smart man or woman smart man or woman dude that's tucker's great great great great great great great great great
grandfather dude no no no no one that invented hot dogs so tucker's tucker's great great great
great great great great great great grandfather invented this word called haggis um and they specialized
in this haggis production right and this haggis production is that's why it's called big yes yes
yes and so what they do is they take all so they invented this mechanism in which you take all
the leftover food that you originally stored in the cellar and you grind up all that food and you create what's
called a haggis and you put it inside of a sausage sleeve and then you preserve it.
And so you can then feed your family for years to come.
Damn, dude. So Hagrid has been like Haggrid's bloodline have always been visionaries high
cholesterol bloodline let me tell you geez man i mean i'm assuming that's why ray the darkness
um ray the darkness became well anyways um anyways markets, um, that's right.
Markets.
Anyways, I'll give a little bit of rundown on markets here real quick.
Just, I don't want to keep people longer than they need to be here.
Go enjoy time with your family or friends, do whatever, you know, you please to do on
these, uh, fine festive days, um, and enjoy the day.
and enjoy the day. But man, markets are just putting everybody to sleep. I hope for volatility
But man, markets are just putting everybody to sleep.
at the beginning of next year. We'll see if we get it. It might take a few days. It might take
next week before maybe mid next week to the end of next week before we start to see volume meaningfully come back into these markets.
We've been pinned in between a very tight price compression or price range.
Like I mentioned at the beginning of my spiel, it's been about a 5k range for the last five weeks.
And I'm ready for some volatility. Like, I don't think that you can meaningfully sustain this kind of divergence we've been seeing in crypto for much longer in regards to equities.
So you need to see, in my opinion, some form of follow through in equities to the downside to really get some further unwind in regards to crypto.
Tommy mentioned that altcoins are, you know, there's been this, you know, his whole spiel on the Bitcoin dominance.
And I tend to agree.
Now, the only caveat I have is, you know, the low volatility regime we've been seeing.
And I've been talking about the complacency we've been, you know, looking at in regards to short positioning for, you know, this entire, through the entire range.
And if we enter into a period where equities start to melt up and you continue to see
a volatility regime collapse in on itself and remain, you know, largely suppressed in regards
to equities, which would then ensue, you know, the S&P over 7,000 or the SPX, excuse me, over 7,000. And that would lead to continued melt up
in regards to equities. And I don't see a world in which you can't see some form of unwind
in coming into the beginning of the year in regards to the short positioning unwind and
becoming forced buyers in the market. Now, from a longer-term timeframe perspective, the one thing that I think is important to
take note of and really keep your eye on is unemployment. Like, yeah, sure, inflation is
still ticking down meaningfully, but it's now below 2% as of the reading today. And if you
start to see us enter into a deflationary environment,
that is not very good for growth. And especially since we've been such a consumption-based economy
and a large amount of our GDP is largely stemming from that consumption side, if we stop seeing
growth in regards to inflation and we start seeing unemployment tick
up, you then see consumption meaningfully tick down. And you got to kind of be careful of that
if we enter into then a deflationary period, which is much, much, much more difficult to come out of
than an inflationary period. I think that's more so kind of what I'm looking at is going to be the
driving forces for 26 is going to be a deflationary what I'm looking at is going to be the driving forces for 26.
It's going to be a deflationary environment. Unemployment is going to be taking back up
meaningfully. Besant and Trump are probably going to unload the rest of the gunpowder that they have
in regards to trying to prop up the markets going into midterms. They know that they probably only
have a few more bullets left in the chamber. And Trump, as we know, does not want to leave office with an economy that is failing and
waning. But ultimately, the direction as of right now kind of all points in the same direction.
And I believe that is, you know, for further downside, at least to the end of 26. I think
that you can see, like I said, potential pop at the beginning
of the year. But you do ultimately do not want to fade whichever direction we do. You know,
we kind of head in towards the beginning of the calendar year next year in regards to Bitcoin,
right? We're going to see, we've been seeing 90.5k defended quite heavily in regards to bears. We've been seeing a lot of
short delta or negative delta come in at that region. If you get above that region,
a lot of shorts get underwater and you start to see an unwinded positioning.
At the same time, we saw heavy, heavy, heavy hands come in at the BOJ announcement low at 84.5,
I believe it is off the top of my head. And if bulls, we start to come down below
84.5, I mean, there's no reason why we should not be going to new lows. I would be very shocked if
you bounce off of like 80K and that's it. I've been mentioning to people for quite some time
on these spaces why that is. So that's kind of what I'm seeing in the market.
I'm not looking at last cycle's fractal as this like, oh, because this happened last cycle,
we should be bouncing. More so I'm looking at volatility, the structure of volatility,
and I'm looking at the S&P in particular. And a lot of people are comparing the S&P
right now to the structure that we put in at the beginning of the year.
And the only difference in particular, if you remember, I was bearish at the beginning of the year.
I was calling out for, you know, the equity to be topping.
And what tipped me off on that was volatility structure.
We were in an uptrend and we are very much so not an uptrend right now.
And we are very much so not an uptrend right now.
We are collapsing in on itself.
We are collapsing in on itself.
And the regime leads me to believe that, you know, we are potentially entering into a new regime in regards to volatility in VIX, at least for Q1 into Q2, right?
And I think that we could have a bigger rollover come Q3, Q4 of next year.
But as of right now, I'm being patient. I'm being very,
very patient. I have a long open on XRP and Solana, small size. If we resolve to either side,
I think Solana presents a fantastic opportunity on either side of the trade, whether that's long
or short, right? There's not a lot of structure below us on Solana.
I mean, the largest revenue generator for, you know, on this or within the Solana ecosystem being pump fund, I'm pretty sure is being indicted for like RICO charges right now,
which is not something you want to be facing. So if their largest revenue generator is ultimately
seeing kind of that heavy hand come against it in regards
to, you know, U.S. regulatory bodies. I don't want to be really anywhere near that, at least from
like a long term, long, long holder perspective. More so, I just think that there's a lot of
stacks liquidity in the chart, you know, and some highs could easily get rated and unwinded pretty quickly. But if you start to lose on Solana, like that 121 region pretty significantly, I don't see why you shouldn't
then be looking to kind of flip for continuation to the downside. I continue to like energy
companies. I think that they continue to present fantastic long opportunity. We talked about copper in the space yesterday and the day before. I think that copper's chart looks
unbelievable. What else? What else? What else? Yeah, it's just, it's kind of a dull market,
man. There's not a whole lot to talk about. Not a lot going on. I think I gave a pretty good rundown on my
thoughts. I think that Rocket Lab, RKLB, if you're looking for short exposure and we do start to see
equities finally roll over, presents a fantastic short opportunity in equities because a lot of
equity names have already significantly pulled back. A lot of these names are already down
40 plus percent in regards to the more high beta names.
And so if you're looking for something that's probably, you know, a little bit, you know, too speculative,
if we do see a broader market pullback in regards to the actual cash flows and representation for the cash flows that they're actually bringing in.
I think RKLB and the whole kind of space trade
right now has gotten a little bit of hype around the SpaceX IPO come next year. And I think that
if you look at real cash flows and real revenue and what their actual bottom line is, I mean,
there's not a whole lot backing these valuations as of right now. That doesn't mean they can't be
great opportunities in
the future. But like I said, just from like a shorter term perspective, I think that they
can present opportunity to the downside. If you start to see equities kind of roll over,
what would that mean for me? Or what does that mean to me? You know, what does equities rolling
over mean? If you look at the ES or you track the ES, if you start to close below that low that we set back, you know, yet again, you know, back at the beginning of December on December 17th at BOJ low, BOJ announcement low below that, you should probably be expecting continuation up until that point.
Again, just being patient, being observant in the market and understanding when to kind
of keep your hands off of the keys or the buttons that is really defines a good trader
from a great trader and the best traders known to step away from the markets and kind of
preserve their capital until you start to see more clarity show itself within the market.
Jeez, man, I'm not even sure how to follow that up, man.
I do know, like, when we talk about unemployment, we're talking about, like, the jobless claims report from today, right?
Well, so what I mean by unemployment is the unemployment rate now the month over month claims is not like that doesn't because the thing is is like
you're not gonna what you're really gonna see is i mean unemployment could tick up
higher um unemployment rate could tick up higher and the claims could remain relatively flat on a month over month basis and remain largely unchanged.
And those claims that people like to really keep their eye on, I mean, those don't start really meaningfully taking up, start taking up until like we are kind of in the shit already.
are kind of in the shit already. You know, if you look at unemployment rate from historical
perspective and you go back in time and you kind of look at the chart, when we start to curl up and
when that trend starts to change and we start to, you know, kind of look when we're starting to look
bullish, right, rounded bottom, rounded top, unemployment was very slow. It's a very slow
moving object or being or entity within the market.
You know, it's curling up and it's been curling up and it's heading higher.
And that does not, it does not stop.
It does not turn on a dime.
Generally, it means you're going to resolve in some form of larger event that causes, you know, um, greater than, you know, average or greater
than the normal, um, you know, historical unemployment than what we've seen. So unless
you see like Trump just go freaking bananas and just like completely nuke the dollar and just like
go on a massive printing spree and stimulate everything.
It's a safe bet, in my opinion, to bet on that we're going to be seeing,
quote-unquote, I know Sully likes this, but some form of event that will lead to a large-scale uptick in unemployment.
Chut annihilation, man.
Yes, exactly.
Chut annihilation.
You know what's crazy man i actually i actually uh really like the chud jack meme it is wild though like one of the most used memes
on twitter couldn't even get past like 30 mil market cap when the market was like extremely extremely hot last year but um we also have truflation uh actually below two percent um
i don't even think we discussed how like core cpi is now the lowest it's been in multiple years
but i don't really think the market cares about that anymore i think it's more towards like
unemployment and all that stuff and it's probably gonna go towards five percent before powell leaves office man
If this is and we do in a lot of ways man like crypto has been in a bear since
The trump tokenism has come out. The ceilings are lower and I'm talking about all coins, right?
Like just all to the broad as as an asset class you did have BTC and Hype and BNB hit all-time highs,
but it's, God, man, it's just been this, like, liquidity pillage fest
from World Liberty Fly, just max extracting over and over and over
and over and over again.
And, Matt, dude, I want to throw this question your way
or just kind of like more of a statement, man.
I understand that usually after the post-election year, right,
the midterms year, they're not always fair.
It's usually.
Not always, right?
In 2014, equities went up only.
Yeah, but what about 2018?
What about 2022?
We still hit all-time highs in 2018.
The NASDAQ and just tech overall went crazy over the summer.
And that peak happened in early early september and that drawdown
only lasted like 10 weeks so under a trump regime where he's so in tune with the markets
it's just really difficult to kind of agree with like a one-year downtrend right or a year of
nothing happening maybe for crypto right maybe for crypto, right? But this is where I agree with Prometheus, though, if I may. And you hit on it. We have not
seen unemployment break above 5% in over a decade. Last time it happened was the great financial crisis.
Well, technically, the last time it happened was 2020. Before that, great financial crisis.
And before that, the tech bubble collapsed in 2000. Every single time, it's a disaster. It's
not a good thing. We have never, in your lifetime, my lifetime, Wabi, we've never avoided a recession when unemployment breaks above 5%. And next week, mark my words, we're going to get news that unemployment is at 4.7.
from 3.6 to 4 to 4.6.
Now we're going to get 4.7 in a week.
This is going to 5% and probably higher.
We've run out of time.
And so you're telling me S&P 500 is at all-time high or was.
NASDAQ, all-time high.
Russell, silver, a whole bunch of MAG7 still.
Like I'm in Pr prometheus's camp i spent all november
shorting everything crypto and miners and ai and i spent all december shorting and loading up puts
on the indexes i'm talking s&p 500 and your favorite sticker bro w, WGMI. Yeah, well, that's it. WGMI.
That one has been doing numbers.
I think I'm up 55%.
Those are long-dated leaps, and they're up like 55%.
I mean, that's how much it's, to Prometheus's point,
a lot of that's already corrected at 40%.
What about Palantir?
Yeah.
Like Palantir.
Palantir leap.
I didn't buy puts on Palantir. Short, sorry. Yeah, I didn't buy puts on Palantir.
Yeah, I didn't buy puts on Palantir.
Instead, I bought puts on Tesla, and that's up 15%.
Like, everything...
Like, last time I was on the space in earlier December before the holidays,
I was telling Max, like, we're getting into short everything season.
And I'm not being glib.
I'm not trying to, like...
You know me. I'm a bull at heart. Long term, I think Bitcoin is going up only, but 2026 is going to be rough. It's going
to be rough. Unemployment going up will take all assets and equities down. It will. And you're telling me that all this stuff is at all-time
highs in December. Like, give me all the puts I can buy. Truly. Give me it all. So, I mean,
this week, I loaded up the boat on silver puts, and that's up 20%. Like, give me anything that's
way overvalued and having to blow off top.
I'll buy all the puts.
Sell them to me.
Because when this rolls over, and I think first week in January is when TradFi pulls
the rug out from under us.
When this rolls over, it's going to be quick.
It's going to like, we're going to be blasting through so-called support levels, truly.
And I'm really worried that we're getting set up for failure. And I'd love to hear Prometheus's thoughts on this and yours too,
Wabi, but I think we're getting set up for failure in this jobs week, jobs report next week,
because TradFi is already saying, oh, we think unemployment is going to stop at 4.6, might even improve to 4.5. That is not anywhere in the data or in the trend.
Ever since 2025 summer, every single month, we've been going up 0.1%. Month after month after month
after month, 0.1% higher. All of a sudden, TradFi in the analyst and big money is trying to tell you oh we think
unemployment's going to stop here might even improve boy when we miss that and it's actually
four seven just like the trend says that's what i'm saying like there's going to be such a shock
and it's going to feel like a rub pool because you know how it goes if Bloomberg and CNBC and all the talking heads
are saying like or five or four six nationally and then the headline is oops big miss four seven
it's the air is gonna get sucked out of the room so that yeah long story short I've been
I've been busy this December over the holidays I had not been sitting on my, I've been busy this December over the holidays. I had not been sitting on my hands.
I've been trying to find anything that looked way overvalued
that I could see getting cut in half or worse in 2026
and just buying it, just all of it, give it to me.
So that's me.
Do you think that 5% reading on unemployment is going to be similar
to the 9% reading we had on CPI in July?
Yeah, you're absolutely right.
Think of it as if anyone was trading in 2022, think of it in the exact same way.
This market didn't bottom in 2022 until CPI stopped climbing.
Think of it the exact same way. This market will not bottom
in 2026 until unemployment stops climbing. And so we don't even have to overthink it.
Just every single month when they do the ADP private payrolls and the Bureau of Labor Statistics
jobs report, if that crap is higher, I i'm sorry we've got another month of pain
and or or more and and and this is this is um this is just a steady climb of month after month
after month it's 0.1 percent higher i mean god help us if we get a 0.2 or worse. So anyway, unfortunately, I think we're at 4.7 right now as we speak, and we've never
avoided a recession when we break through 5%.
And that's what every talking head is going to start spamming in January, February.
So what does that do to asset prices?
What does that do to crypto?
What does that do to AI?
What does that do to Mag7?
Everything's going to get a haircut.
Everything will.
So you don't have to like, hey, cash is a position too.
It doesn't mean like if you don't have any experience shorting,
if you don't have any experience buying puts, you don't need to.
Cash is a position too.
And maybe I'm completely wrong and it's a really rosy jobs report next week.
Well, great. We'll all buy together.
We'll all ride the next wave higher.
I just don't believe it. I just don't at all.
We've had half a year of poor data
and then another half a year in 2020,
the back half of mediocre bad data.
And this January, this first week in January,
is really going to set the tone for 2026.
And again, you can search it right now.
The whisper number, the expectations,
the analysts are saying,
oh, we think it stops here at 4.6.
Might even improve to 4.5.
They are setting us up to fail.
And that's all I'll say.
Matt, what are you up to for New Year's, bro?
Oh, just chilling.
Head downtown, probably.
I feel you on that, man.
I feel you on that.
I'm looking forward to my New Year's as well, man.
It's going to be a special day.
We'll see what happens next week, man.
With this Trump announcement, plus this jobs report,
it's going to be a volatile week to start off the year.
I definitely agree on that.
And you've been in markets for well over a decade,
and you've been a part of these shows for over three years now, man.
Basically since BB started.
Damn, dude.
I'm turning into an onk. Damn, dude. I might actually be unk now,
dude. You're a grizzled veteran, multi-cycle grizzled veteran. I mean, you've been here
since 2017. We just didn't have spaces. Yeah. And I mean, 2018, dude, like, I just bought BTC and ETH. And then I lost a ton of it buying like Neo, Pundi X. And
then in 2019, I was just buying ETH. I thought that was going to be like a pretty good trade
in a few years. And back at that time, dude, like, Gemini was putting ads all over Miami.
And I'm like, all right right this industry is not going to go
anywhere and um i just thought about it as far as like having cycles and believe it or not dude
um there was this big connect guy called trevon james and he actually spat some pretty good alpha
at the bottom in 2018. he was talking about how like the markets are not going to go up until
the halving. Right. And he pulled up all this data and all that stuff. And I remember he was like
pretty early with DeFi. I think the first chain that was active in that sector was Tron. You had
TronBet, TronRollette. So for all the online casinos that are popping off right now in crypto,
Tron was like the OG of that.
Just look up TronBet, Tron Roulette.
I'm pretty sure there was another one.
Those were popping in 2019.
And I just thought, cool.
So ETH isn't going to go to zero, right?
Because you had all the ICOs selling their stack.
You remember Substratum, Matt?
It was one of the biggest ICOs.
And Iota, Iota. to selling their stack you remember substratum matt it was one of the biggest icos in iota
yeah but substratum was like the one where like the guy went to prison because i think he got caught for insider trading and also he was missed using investor funds um and he lost them all uh shorting at like three thousand four thousand um in like early 2019 or
whatever so it's like a really ftx using customer funds basically yeah that's why a lot of alts just
like never came back after that like echo bubble bounce we had uh in q2 2019 a lot of those ico's just started selling their stack um into the into
those pumps it's kind of crazy matt dude like in q2 2019 like everyone thought that bitcoin was
going to blow past 20 000 you remember that yeah we had 14k it had a in june of 2019 it was yeah
late uh late eight late 2018 into early 2019 it did like a 3x 4x right we went from like 4k to 12
and what felt like just three months but well let me ask let me ask you let me ask you I mean you
you've been here longer than most like watching ETH this last cycle barely even make a new all-time high compared to 2021 cycle like
what are you thinking bro i'll be honest bro like you know i can bull post harder than probably
anyone did and i did that over the summer you remember all the bullish posts i made over the
summertime dude i still have my pin tweet and everything so you
know i ran that be as bullish as possible experiment ultimately like those views were
super wrong um as far as short term but like and i do think eth hits 10 000 it's just
on the road to get there if you're all in on eth're going to be missing on so many opportunities. For example, for example,
silver, silver rally of like 200%. And from its starting point, silver was valued a ton more than
Ethereum. It's kind of like you're waiting at a bus stop. And you're waiting for a bus and you know
what's going to happen. But you're seeing like Lambo, everyone else's buses come. Yeah. Yeah. And these buses are like decked out, like a Mercedes-Benz bus.
You're seeing all these decked out buses and it's finally your turn.
And you're out there in the cold.
And it's like, dude, you start getting frostbite.
And then by the time the bus gets there, you're basically half dead.
Like you're nearly dead, right?
So, yeah, I do think East goes ten
thousand twenty thousand even thirty thousand right it's just like the road
to get there is gonna be a lot more difficult than people expect and like
stories like my thoughts this cycle I think it was just like a cool off after
the sugar high of 2021 it's more of like a consolidation type year.
I know a lot of people compare ETH to like Amazon, post.com,
and that can be a really real thing.
Inflation adjusted, ETH might not go into true, true, true price discovery
until like late 26 at the earliest or like the hal having cycle as i'm saying right my dubious take is
that like the next big market top happens uh right before the having like in in a big way i think um
it'll have everything going for it right you have the election probably some form of qe uh but in
order for qe and serp and all that stuff to happen you actually need the
market to come down significantly so maybe we see eth below 2 000 next year i think it could happen
i give it like a 70 30 chance 70 that it will happen 30 that it won't um and i i think that's
fair value for eth like 1800 1700 i think that's that that could easily be that could easily be achievable
um and yeah those are really my takes and i understand when like people give bearish takes
or whatever or call for any sort of downside they're called doomers and all that stuff and
they're saying all the ball runs not over but like bro the boron hasn't been over for
the s p uh for the s p since like the 40s or the 50s right but there have been a hell of a ton of
corrections yeah we have all the time yeah yeah so so so bull markets like markets are up and to
the right right um but outside of like your indexes and majors for crypto, I guess, asset selection is, oh, sweet, we have data.
Yes.
And Evan, oh, dude, this is going to be great.
Wow.
Thank you, guys.
This is going to be a great cook session to end off the year.
But asset selection is going to be the game moving forward, I think.
And so consensus is markets go up and to the right
you know and i think because of that and all the access we have to data where it's like oh yeah
like eases defy and souls memes and all that stuff um the the trade becomes overcrowded and
you remember when trader xl was up here in early january of 2023
xl flat out said i think solana is going to be a huge trade this cycle and that stream uh is
archived on the because bitcoin channel uh on youtube just go to our playlist and then click
on crypto world radio and then go go to like the first five streams.
I think it was like the day after New Year's when XO came on.
And we were talking about the prospect of like Solana being a massive play
for what would be known as the echo bubble, right?
That's what 2023 was called, the echo bubble.
And Sol was a massive play.
But the trade was not overcrowded right because one there was nothing to do on solana and many people actually thought that
sbf created soul like people thought sbf created solana right and it wasn't like that. It's not like that at all. As a matter of fact, I think like Raj and Tully were like creating Solana in the offices of NGC, which was one of their like their first pre-seed investors.
barely had like two or three years of runway left after the ftx collapse because a lot of their
runway i think was in alameda i believe so it wasn't an overcrowded trade um but i mean their
whole vision didn't go away right which was uh internet capital markets markets online right
um yeah basically like like an advanced version of eth and the vision was
complete dude like they had pump fun they had escape velocity where you see a trending coin
on x right like dog with hat for example um where almost everyone that was active on twitter knew
about it at like 50 mil it runs to five bill multiple coins go to billions within
weeks and you didn't see that in any chain at all you saw that with Pepe during its first initial
run but no other chain has been able to replicate what Solana did this cycle and so I mean when you
compare it to ETH man I mean ETH is just going to be a benefactor of markets going up and to the right.
But I think it had its growth cycle already in 2021, where it went from $100 to $5,000.
You had a bunch of APR farms. What those crazy DeFi farms were on ETH, that's what happened on Solon memes, right? Yeah, you didn't have your DeFi farms where you can
get like 10,000, 20,000% APY on a farm with DeFi tokens, but you had memes essentially replicating
that same trajectory of growth. AI16Z last year in Q4 goes from a mil to like a 4 billion valuation in less than 90 days.
And it was liquid, man.
It got listed on every single exchange.
That is a liquid ticker.
So, you know, I don't really think ETH has this crazy growth store anymore, but it's
just going to be up and to the right slowly. slowly I'd rather just get Q
call options
hood call options
I'd rather buy hood than ETH to be honest
if you're looking for
upside gains
what's a better
play ETH going to 15k
or hood going to a trillion over the next
10 years or or five years
four years yeah I'd rather buy hood that was and that was my people are starting to see that was
my thesis with hood that like look if there's if there's any winners in these small caps uh if
there's any winners in crypto if there's any winners in these um in these um you know uh
experimental companies like hood's where they get traded.
Hood benefits from all of that activity, that volume, those options,
prediction markets that are just coming out.
Like, Hood has it all.
And that's what we were talking about two, three years ago,
comparing Coinbase to Hood.
And I was in the Hood camp, and I mean, proof is in the pudding.
Hood stomped
coinbase's performance like coinbase did well coinbase did all right for a multi-year trade
but hood that that crushed that's a monster dude and i i i think i mean dude i've said this since
like the summertime um but like i think hood is basically for my generation right like
like i guess young millennial uh late stage zoomer whatever um kind of in the middle but
um i think i've heard you say you think it goes to one trillion i do too i think i think hood right now is basically
google in like the mid-2000s where in the mid-2000s people were hungry for information
and google was like the hub for information but now people don't care about information they want
to know the ticker they want to know what to do they don't want to do research they want ai to
handle everything for them so what's the hub for. So what's the hub for that, right? What's the hub for gambling, dubious speculation,
instant gratification? That's what this economy functions off of. Instant gratification with
the click of a button. And the best supplier for that, the best house to bet on, the fastest horse
would be Hood. I just see them running away with they've just become the
everything financial app you're all in one you're all in one financial app you can get your bank
in there your credit card there your your stocks there your 401k there and vice saving savings
with with hood gold you have a savings we have a bank oh yeah that's legit hey i was taking
advantage of that uh that um real that cash sweep hood gold five percent
and 5.5 hell yeah i'm no i'm no idiot that's real man that's a real thing and it's also a bet on
ken griffith um and and i i mean that in a sense of like if you look at the way markets were
um up until like the early 80s if you weren't in industrials you underperformed massively right
and the best i guess like fun to bet on that was buffett and then it became uh peter lynch right
so the inverse of that would be tech and that would be ken griffith right he's not young but
he's not he's not like a fossil, right? So that's how I'm
viewing it in a sense. But I know Griffith is more of a market operator, not a market investor,
but I mean, it's almost kind of the same thing, right? Most people are not investors.
They're looking for assets to get in, um, to have fast gains, to go back into cash um so that's that's just like the nature of of of the
game right like we've we've gone from generations and generations of investors to more of like
hyper rotators because people know that everyone is kind of in the same race they're looking for an
exit to build a nest egg because i mean inflation
is just up into the right unemployment's probably going to be up into the right um i kind of went on
a little tangent there no i'm with you i agree and if 2026 is plays out like we think it will
um i think call it late spring summer that could be, maybe it's not the exact bottom, but certainly a decent educated guess.
I'll be taking a big bite out of hood.
I'll absolutely be buying myself a nice bag of hood.
One never sells their Bitcoin, and I'll be buying bitcoin is you know whatever price
you know give me the average price of bitcoin from late spring into the summer just you know
whatever just just you know sell me that average price of bitcoin i'll buy i'm a buyer but robin
hood i'm very interested that's real man dita evan ragsy what's up how are yousy what's up? How are you guys? I'm good. I'm good. Happy New Year
I'm I'm like so super excited and I I like some of the things we said earlier that
Somebody else I think it was Snorlax said about the altcoins because
My feelings is that I always put myself out there ahead of the game.
And if I'm wrong, I'm wrong. But we're getting this altcoin season next year. And I know people
think we're going into a bear market. We're not. And it's an off market. Things are going to pop
off. Why this cycle is different, things are going to pop off at different times. Whereas
last cycle, you had everything pop
off all together. And that's because we were in the middle of a pandemic and they were doing
everything like crazy to, you know, to cut the rates and do all crazy types of stimulus,
stimulus to, um, to help the economy, right. And do damage control. So that's why you had those
like explosive moves this bull run is
different and the way things are playing out it's going to be like a slow bull run it's a little
annoying but we are going to get this all coin season next year there's like no there's like no
down in my mind that we're getting that and i'm so confident that i'm buying the bottom of charts
right now like i've never been more sure and more confident.
And the thing is, too, with the altcoins, there's so many things that are literally close to the
bottom. They're like within 20 percent of the bottom. So it's like even if I'm wrong and we're
in a bear, it doesn't even matter because you're still buying the bottom of the chart for so many
things. And as long as they're relevant and going to be used, eventually they're going to go up in a
year or two years from that next bull run. Right? You're going to, they're going to go up
from the price they are now for certain projects. So I've never felt so confident about anything in
my life that we're going to get this surprise crimes alt season sometime next year. And I think
that for a variety of reasons, and I specifically think
it's going to be related mostly to obviously artificial intelligence. I think it will be
centered around my prediction is that it will be centered around the SpaceX IPO. I think there's
going to be a lot of buzz around the SpaceX IPO. And I think that we should actually get our altcoin season right around the same time.
And I think that the AI specific alts are going to have a run during that time.
So that is what I'm like personally betting on.
And I think like, you know, I always like listening to spaces and people are like adorable.
You know, they're like, no, take some time off and spend time with your family.
Like, in my opinion, it should be spending time with your family, like regardless if
it's the holidays or not.
So today, Christmas doesn't matter.
It's just like, you know, any other day to me personally.
Like, I think this is actually now the most crucial time.
The next few weeks, I think, is going to be some of the most important time to pay attention to this whole cycle because if we're getting that altcoin uh run later in 2026
this is that these are coins are bottoming out now and then once they start to rise 20 30 percent
you're literally losing your multiples on the altcoin so it's like i actually think it's
extremely important to pay attention right now i mean i am i'm going through like altcoins. So it's like, I actually think it's extremely important to
pay attention right now. I mean, I am, I'm going through like altcoins I would never even buy,
but I know I can make money on them, you know, in the future. And I'm going around like
analyzing everything and like, and, and buying up some of these, the bottom of the charts here,
because I think this is the opportunity right here.
I do not believe for a second we're going to a bear.
And I think it's going to really look like that mid-January.
That's when I think we're really going to get a one last kind of dump.
I think mid-January, it's really going to look like a bear.
And I think people are going to be like, see, it's the bear.
And I think we're going to lose like, see, it's the bear. And I think we're going
to lose a little bit more on the on the Bitcoin here. And but then after that, I think it's going
to be, you know, might be I don't know what's going to happen after that we're going to go
straight parabolic or if it's just going to chill for a while before it goes up. But I think mid
January, that's when most of this stuff is going to bottom out.
So I feel like I've never been so sure.
I just feel like we're going to get this crimed altcoin season.
Because I went back and looked.
They extended the debt cycle an extra year.
So it didn't roll over this year.
It's going to roll over next year.
And if history repeats itself when that's that
happens that's usually when you get your bull run so i am thinking that that will be the ai
uh or that altcoin uh you know bull run next year so i am like extremely i guess short-term bearish
because i think we're gonna get a little dump mid-january but then i'm like extremely bullish
for next year and And I think,
so I'm just, I'm literally going through all these altcoins, all these AI projects,
like new projects that I think have a lot of potential because that's where the real money
is made is catching these serious, you know, altcoin utility projects that have very good
white paper, very good marketing, because all that money that floods into altcoins is very different than meme coins, right? It's like serious VC capital money.
So I've been going through like new artificial intelligent, you know, projects and seeing like
going through their white papers and seeing like, what connections they have, things like that, and who is going to really bring in the money when this SpaceX IPO hits
and there's all this buzz about space and AI and those types of things.
And that's what I'm planning for, and that's what I think is going to happen.
Happy New Year, everyone.
But Happy New Year, everyone.
Happy New Year, Ragsy.
Happy New Year, Ragsy.
Speaking of AI projects, AI16Z, he rebranded to ElizaOS,
and that thing had a 200% pump.
Shaw's back running spaces, so maybe he does run it back.
back running spaces.
So maybe he does run it back.
If AI is going to come back in a big way,
like virtuals is probably going to pump in a big way.
And I think that's probably like the one thing that is going to be popping on
ETH whenever like the market just goes full face ripper mode.
Like if we see what happened like two months ago uh when btc had
that complacency shoulder at 116 i think eth went to like 3800 or 3600 something like that um
game on virtuals it's probably like my favorite ai ticker uh pulled off like a 500% pump, went from like 8 mil all the way to like 60. And
that happened in like eight days, nine days. So, and I think also now, like we've gone
from the chat GPT rappers. I think think that phase ended earlier this year,
where everything was just like a clone of chat GPT.
But now these agents are actually able to code on their own,
specifically with things like Claude.
I think Claude is probably the best language learning model
right now in the market like it's it's actually
sentient like these this AI from plot is actually it's it's becoming sentient
and I think like all the cool stuff that we saw with AI and crypto happening last year, even in Q1 last year, Render and Airweave were going crazy, man.
Those were some pretty good plays, too, earlier this cycle.
And I think a lot of the stuff that was being talked about by these teams during that time period is probably going to happen going into that, maybe.
But, Dana, what's up, bro? Welcome, man. Hey, what's going on, man? Appreciate all the info that
everyone's given. And I completely agree with Ragsy here. I think that 2026 is going to take
a lot of people by surprise. I think that there's a lot of catalysts that people aren't really
considering. And anyone who knows me knows I'm big on the macro aspect of it. And obviously, the Fed is doing their treasury buybacks right now, probably for the next 15 days or so. And anyone who knows me knows I'm big on the macro aspect of it. And obviously,
the Fed is doing their treasury buybacks right now, probably for the next 15 days or so. And then
most likely, they're going to continue that with the $40 billion worth. But there's a few other
things I'm watching. And one of those obviously is going to be rate cuts. So there's going to be
no change in January, most likely, but March is going to be the next date. But also, we have
potential stimulus. So Trump mentioned
that this will be the biggest tax refund year, I think, ever. And so expecting potentially that
to be a nice little positive catalyst. But at the same time, more Treasury buybacks are expected,
as well as eventually starting QE. And because the Fed said that Treasury buybacks aren't
quantitative easing or it's not monetary stimulus, right?
So that's still something we have to look forward to.
And then in addition to that, I know a couple of people were saying that will bottom out mid-2026.
And I think we have a lot of catalysts for that as well with, you know, Jerome Powell getting out of office in May.
And then whoever Trump brings in is going to be a yes man.
Trump brings in is going to be a yes man. So they're going to cut rates. They're going to start QE if it's not started already.
So they're going to cut rates.
They're going to start QE if it's not started already.
And then on top of that, Trump talked about giving a one to two thousand dollar stimulus for families making under 100K.
So that's still on the back burner. And also we have the November midterms.
And historically, that's been fairly bullish for the market, especially right now with how important the market is for Trump and his image. I think that there's going to be a lot going on to make himself and his constituents look good ahead of the midterms.
And so we have that to look forward to.
And I think in general, like everyone was saying, this cycle, specifically 2025 for this year,
was a difficult year per se because it was non-standard.
And a lot of that is because the presence of institutions
and you have so much more high-frequency trading algorithms
and you have so many more tokens
and you have so many more launch pads, et cetera.
And so it's much different than the standard HODL mentality.
And like Ragsie was saying,
there's a lot of opportunity with a lot of these tokens
that are down 80, 90% right now.
And with narratives just popping off left and right,
I mean, we've seen the privacy narrative
with Zcash and Monero.
That do fairly well.
Prediction markets, revenue generating protocols.
We obviously saw the competition
between LiDAR and Hyperliquid recently
and a few others.
And I think that now we're starting
to slowly see retail come back in
just from a few meme coins.
So obviously White Whale, Flying Ketamine Horse,
6.7, you have all these other memes
that are actually starting
to gain some momentum, right? And so I think, in my opinion, that we're going to see more retail
come in towards the new year, especially if we have more projects doing well, gives people more
confidence to invest again, and as well as those macro catalysts that we have still to look forward
to. So I think there's going to be a lot of opportunity. I think a lot of indicators are
bottoming out, especially on the weekly. If you look at the stock RSI, it's bottomed,
it's oversold on most tokens, even Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, et cetera. And so I think
we're getting a good reset overall with 2025. And I think that there's going to be a lot of
opportunity. I'm still ready if Bitcoin wants to drop down to 78K or potentially even 70K.
I know that those are some big areas people are watching.
And so those are areas I'd be bidding heavily.
But I think at the end of the day that things are lining up very nicely
for institutions, for adoption, for new narratives to come up,
and really for a lot of these tokens that have been bleeding out,
for them to finally take hold once we get the AI narrative resurgence
even with SpaceX with their IPO and then quantum robotics, like all of these
new narratives and they're forming, excuse me, and they're going to just continue to be more
prevalent next year. And so it's just a matter of time now and it's just being patient. And I think
that this market has really tested people's patience. And we saw that with liquidation on
October 10th. And then we saw more liquidations, you know, a couple weeks after that.
And people haven't learned their lesson.
And so it's just a big reset, in my opinion, for setting the stage for next year, which, in my opinion, is going to be one of the most bullish years we've had.
And it's going to take a lot of patience, but it's going to reward those who have put in the work, put in the time, and are positioned accordingly.
Year of the horse.
Absolutely.
FKH.
Fire horse.
So it's going to be fast.
We're getting the all coins.
Ragsy's calling it now.
I called for everybody else like a month ago.
They were like, it's the bear.
I'm like, it's not the bear.
We are getting this all coin season.
It's going to come fast because that's a fire horse it's a very short-lived fast thing people are not going to
have time to get in they're going to think it's going to continue on and on it's not you have a
window of time to buy the bottom and then you're going to have a window of time to sell and then
it's going to be cooked because the fire horse is a fast this is a fast type of energy last time we
had a horse uh during a bull run it was a wood horse it's completely different in chinese
astrology because there's elements and then there's the animal so it's very very different
than like this i call it white girl astrology the chinese astrology is very different that works man
like that financial astro stuff like that that stuff actually works man i don't care what anyone
says anybody know that stuff with the last the last year that we had the fire horse anybody
know the last year it was i think this year was a snake was no i mean the last like year with uh the
last year with that was also the year the fire horse it doesn't happen very often anybody know it was a long
1960 yeah that's like yeah that's a long time ago that's all i know
yeah no in 1966 i would be curious if you look at those markets with they i didn't look at it
what they did back then but um i mean that was late 1960s was a period of time kind of similar to what gold was
doing against the uh s p 500 back then because gold didn't really do anything parabolic yet at
that point you know like it did in 1970s but it was going kind of it was excuse me i'm getting
over the flu which was um pretty rough four or five days but um so gold
didn't do too was that in south florida no in new york near new york in connecticut oh
me bro so it looks like i'm not gonna go to nyc i was planning on going there like before the
arnold classic yeah no it wasn't it wasn't too but you know it's it's the flu i mean it was worse
because it's so dry up there and the weather is bad.
And, you know, I was dealing with family and stuff and all that type of stuff.
So, but, yeah, no, it's been going around.
I gave it to one of my friends.
Now he's got it.
I got out of there.
I'm in the Dominican Republic right now.
But I'm still, like, a little bit.
You know, it's been, like, six days.
But I'm still a little bit fatigued and coughing from it.
But, yeah.
Dude, what a manly voice, bro.
Jeez, dude.
I'm just coughing.
You've got like one of the manliest voices here, dude.
Well, thank you.
Not to glaze, bro.
The looks maxing is working.
Well, thanks, man.
Let's get on to the gold.
So gold did kind of do well in the late 1960s, you know.
I guess the S&P 500 didn't go crazy until the 1970s.
Kind of similar to what I would argue is we're looking at gold kind of right now.
So I think there's that parallel.
1966, now remember, for the S&P 500, 1966 was not that great of a year.
I think you had like at least a 10% correction.
It could have been a 20% correction.
I would think you're well overdue for some type of correction for the S&P 500.
I would guess at least 10% to 15% that we'll see at some point in 2026.
I would guess that it would be sooner than 2018, definitely.
I don't think it would take until the end of
2026. I would think that if I had to guess here, it'd be a version of 2022, but milder,
and you'd kind of hit that bottom, you know, maybe in June or May rather than October is what you
saw at the S&P 500. And then November, I think it was October of 2022, it bottomed, I could be wrong,
but it was November for Bitcoin. Obviously, I think I could October of 2022 at bottom. I could be wrong, but it was November for Bitcoin.
Obviously, I think I could say with confidence it probably will be earlier than that.
So that's kind of what we're looking there.
In terms of altcoin season, you know, it kind of depends on how you define altcoin season.
I mean, we've been in altcoin season since April to a certain extent.
I would say ETH has outperformed Bitcoin since April.
So if you consider ETH to be an altcoin, I know people are probably rolling their eyes at this,
but if you consider ETH to be an altcoin, you know, we've seen ETH season.
We've seen that outperform Bitcoin since April.
And I think in terms of monetary policy, you may see ETH outperform Bitcoin into 2028,
into 2029 for some many years to come potentially, assuming that ETH survives.
And I think it will.
And you would see, you know, kind of that rally continue.
Everything looks pretty cooked in terms of like an AI bubble.
I think, you know, things like Palantir, you know, I like HUD.
I think HUD's going to do really good long-term.
I would love it at a much better deal than these prices,
which I think we should get, hopefully.
You know, I could see a
decent correction for hood, definitely not as bad as 2022. But, you know, nothing's going to go up
forever. And, you know, the things being undervalued kind of is what we want. I just had a thought
about ETH. I think fair value currently is at 18, 1900. So if you can get back to those points for
ETH, which, you know, based on previous cycles, based on, you know, where I map things out,
and if I had a guess, you'd probably bottom out some point next year or some point in 2026, you know, between 1800 to 2000.
I think that would be a really good deal, you know, assuming you could top out somewhere between 10 and 20K, you know, by the end of the decade.
So there's that potential there um you
know in terms of a real altcoin season i mean yeah you you will get something you know i think that
there's diminished returns i mean obviously 27 2021 is crazy as it was i would argue
disagree with me maybe some people would disagree but i would argue that you know 2017 was even
crazier than to 2017 into early 2018 um so i do think when you do get that all coin season you
know it probably will have some diminished returns also everyone and their brother including the
president of the united states has two meme coins so two all coins so there's that as well it's a
very oversaturated market, but excuse me.
I do think, you know, there'll be that potential.
But as of right now, I think ETH is like the biggest bang for your buck.
Anyway, guys, I'm going to start coughing.
You're good, bro.
So here's the deal, man.
I got to go.
Supermarkets are closing in like the next half hour. And I have a big, big, big I legitimately thought we were only going to get like 20 listeners today because it's New Year's Eve.
But man, it's a pleasant surprise to see that you guys love these markets so much that you'll show up and tune in regardless of what day it is.
So thank you all so much.
Thank you for everyone
that has supported Because Bitcoin here on X. Thank you all so much this year for tuning into
Market Talk, whether markets were bullish, bearish or crabbish in between. Thank you. Thank you. I
appreciate every single one of you that come up and speak, whether you're a part of our regular panels or you're a part
of our listener base.
I've stated this many times before, the times that we go live here on X is usually when
a lot of larger accounts tend to go live when you guys decide to tune in to market talk.
So whether it's, you know, our usual audience of a couple hundred, whether it's a smaller
audience like today, or if even only five or ten of you show up.
You know, I remember when I started streaming on here, I think my average was like 15 people or something like that.
And I appreciated it back then just as much as I appreciate it now.
it now. This year has been filled with so many blessings. We've had guys like Peter Schiff come
This year has been filled with so many blessings.
on as well as Michael Cantrell and a lot of other big name titans in the financial space have joined
us here on these spaces. And I couldn't be more grateful. And all the glory goes to my Lord,
Savior, Jesus Christ. I like to end the shows off on that note. I'm not perfect. But, you know, Jesus provides a way. And, you know, I just want to say thank you. Thank you. Thank you. All the glory to God. And Jesus has given me a peace that surpasses all understanding. And I recognize my fault. So whenever I feel down,
whether it's in markets
or I feel like I'm losing my edge,
I refer back to the creator,
the savior, the Christ.
And it was John 3, 16 says, right?
So for God so loved the world,
he gave his only begotten son
so that we may have a chance
at him at eternal life in heaven.
And God bless each and every single one of you.
And I pray that the Lord touch your hearts throughout the year. And if you end up having
a dark moment that he come and visit you and that you feel the light of his embrace and not to go
too much on a tangent, but I hope you guys have a family to celebrate the New Year's with. I hope you have at least some friends that you guys can talk to during a day like today.
I understand that for some of you, the holidays might not be the best times.
Maybe you lost a family member or a close friend.
But just know that God still has a plan for you if you still have air in your lungs and you still have oxygen to breathe.
And I'll see you guys all next year.
Spaces are recorded, as always, guys.
Huge shout out once again to all the speakers.
Give them a follow, guys.
Without the speakers, there would not be a show.
I would definitely never go live if it's just me speaking on a space.
I've never done that and likely will never do that.
But thank you all.
Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. You guys have busy lives, but you guys always find some time to talk markets with me. And same for all of you. Thank you for all the listeners, whether you're
listening live or to the recording. I couldn't be more grateful for the growth that's happened this year at BB in a market that essentially went sideways between $75,000 to $100,000.
There really wasn't much as far as price action across the board with a few outliers on chain.
And we still had some growth and also shout out to
all my team members shout out to prometheus who joined us earlier this year and you know he's uh
shown to be quite the savant on chain he's caught trades like kita kta and also aster very early on
before they popped off uh shout out to sully his His real name is Tommy, but I call him Sully
for some reasons that I'll keep to myself. He's an individual that called out the downside price
action alongside Jackus, one of our OG team members as well. Shout out to them. Shout out
to Tucker. Shout out to Ed, also who's been building our trading terminal, BB Terminal,
which will have a mobile app for each and every single one of you in the coming quarters going into the new year.
Shout out to him for relentlessly grinding.
Shout out to Valentin.
Shout out to our graphic designer, Z.
Shout out to Louis.
I think that's it, right?
Yeah, I think I've given everyone a shout out.
And for all of you who make these shows possible,
whether you tune in to Market Talk or whether you tune in to Market Check,
I appreciate every single one of you,
whether you tune in every day or you just listen to the replays.
And if you happen to come across this stream for the first time and kind of want to know what we're
about we stream here on x and also on youtube i host market talk my name is wabi i've been doing
this for a few years now i go live here at 3 30 p.m est and usually talk about all things markets
whether it's bitcoin all coins lower time frame higher time frame price action trad fi uh everything markets i i yap out of on here with uh with a few of my speakers and uh we
also have a youtube show called market check which is hosted throughout the week at 11 a.m esc that's
our ta show so if you guys are into all things charting you guys can check that show out but
as i said thank you all so much for all the support
that you've given us here because bitcoin god bless you all and uh i hope you all have um a nice
night today and uh you have some people to talk to on a day like today and yeah i'll see you all
next year quite literally so peace So peace out, guys.
Thank you, thank you, thank you.
And give everyone here a follow if you haven't yet.
Give the BecauseBitcoin account a follow,
but I'm sure all the people that are listening are some of our usual listeners.
So take care, guys. I'll see you all in a couple of days, I guess.
So peace, y'all. Thank you. I feel like I'm in the house.
I feel like I'm in the house.
I feel like I'm in the house.
You know the type of house music that sounds like,
um, you know what I'm talking about?
I think I still want to hear it right now.
I feel like you have to.
Hey.
Insights
P
