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MARKETS DOWN BIG | Stock Market Talk
Recorded: April 21, 2025 Duration: 2:02:21Space Recording
Short Summary
In a recent discussion, market analysts explored the evolving landscape of tech stocks and their implications for crypto investors. Key insights included the potential for Bitcoin to decouple from traditional assets, the significance of Tesla's upcoming earnings report, and the importance of technical analysis in navigating market trends. As sentiment shifts, traders are advised to remain vigilant and consider the broader implications of these developments on their investment strategies.
Full Transcription
Thank you. I'll be back guys.
I'm on a stocks on spaces.
What's up?
What's up?
How are we doing?
What is up everyone?
It's Monday.
April the 21st it's uh i almost pulled an anthony palozi and said i'm not gonna say good morning or good afternoon because there's nothing good
about it unless you were short today then it was a very good day for you uh evan anything from you
i'm excited to see what our panel has on their minds today as we have a technical breakdown.
What's up, Scott?
Don't set the titles as stock market analysis.
Sometimes it cuts off and literally will take off just the last four letters.
How about Vs to Ws?
Okay, we could do that.
I kind of like a good old what the fuck's happened or close the market or something like that.
Nah, you can't make money if you're hoping for the market to be closed. You've got to take control of your positions,
take control of your process, and
there's no hope in turn.
I'll let you change
it in the meantime, Evan.
By the way,
I do think that the market's getting kind of used to this,
What's getting
used to it?
Well, I'm just saying, so listen, so last week, you know,
we were here and, you know, market got rejected into that, you know, Spies 544 area. You had some weakness across tech. Nothing was being bought higher. Then on Wednesday, Thursday was lethargic
tweets about, you know, big compromises and deals didn't really scare the shorts anymore.
There was just blanket selling. I know my community didn't come in long today. There
was no reason to be long. Mega Cap Tech or Mag7, most names were lethargic, didn't close well.
Meta was sold every single day last week. Amazon below key levels Tesla there was no one really caring what was
happening there Apple also very everything was just like a no touch if
you could if you're a good short you're a good short if you're a trader you have
to kind of just be in cash I know some people thought maybe there'd be some
kind of deal over the weekend so I know I took some small calls just in case, but that's risk is premium paid. So today we came in, I think my note, I focused
on 520 in the spies, 520 in the spies was last week slow. If we hold it, hey, maybe there's a
chance we stabilize, we break below it. There's nothing to about 509. And here we are 50970. So
mapping out levels, everyone's like, like oh technicals don't work in this
kind of um tweet news focused market that's not true technicals give you points of references
to test at least so you're not buying things in no man's land you know last week a bunch of guys
were talking about being 95 percent invested but they thought the market was going to test the
lows i don't understand that but um anyway so here here we are. At this point, I was looking for some clues on whether or not
we could be really weak or just another down day. And you look at something like a meta that's
already at the lows of the year. Amazon's a pebble throw from the lows of the year. Tesla's
close to the lows of the year. Spies are still, I don't know,
almost 27 points above. So if the spies are going to go down in Tesla's lows of the year,
these things are going a lot lower. If there's a small, small chance, this is going to be like
a higher low into this area and the retracement of 0.618 holds, which is never a really strong
retracement. If you're going to see bigger upside, usually you get like a 0.382% retracement of 0.618 holds, which is never a really strong retracement.
If you're going to see bigger upside, usually you get like a 0.382% retracement.
And we lost that opportunity last week.
So if anything, you know, there's little tiny things to think about long,
but there's nothing being sustained right here. The only thing that could sustain a rally is everyone saying it's sentiment so bad.
The only thing that could sustain a rally is everyone saying it's a sentiment so bad.
At this point, just to reiterate, that's almost like the reality of the situation of it's no longer just a negotiation.
There's real life stuff happening.
NVIDIA last week, I think, created the title Reality Bites, you know, $5.5 billion write down because of what's happening with the tariff wars.
At this point, we're not even oversold anymore. So that's why you're not getting better than feared boosts on stocks that
might reduce guidance. The oscillator today, by the way, is only like minus one. So we're not even
oversold. So we're not oversold. There's no real accommodation by the Fed. There's the president calling the Fed chairman a loser.
There's just a lot of things going on which makes people sit on their hands versus so opportunistic here.
Less is more, less has been more for a week or two.
Until we see more clarity of whether or not we can get some kind of W bottom, some kind of real higher, lower tech acts better, some kind of clarity that's more than a tweet.
I think it's the path of resistance is lower with little cute trades like this morning.
Palantir. Palantir went from down a dollar to up two dollars.
That was probably the only long, only real long trade you could have done.
And you had about six minutes to do so.
So that's not very exciting.
It's just the reality of the situation for now.
Yeah, Scott, to your point, it's been seven trading days, 12 actual days since the Trump tweet day, quote unquote.
And we still have zero deals across the board.
And I think that's the thing
that continues to stick out most to me in this uncertain market. Sounds like you're kind of on
that same page there. And then from the technical side, Scott, are you seeing anything at all that
looks technically bullish? Well, you know, I said last week that I thought it felt like
Bitcoin was decoupling from risk to hopefully join the gold camp. So at least we have
something else to do that can make higher lows and higher highs and give you some kind of excitement.
And I think today was decent, but I'm a little, you know, not excited about the move today in
Bitcoin, considering that Mr. didn't really participate. GME didn't participate. No,
miners really participated. It was just pure IBBIT and it's already 80 cents off
the highs and not really showing much power. So there's really not much to sink your teeth into.
Unless you're a really committed short where you don't mind shorting more rallies into this move,
the buy side just isn't working for more than a cute little small trade. So you just have to
bear with it and be patient you know for me i've already
put two tiers of my blood in the street account to work which is a totally separate account i can't
buy anymore because i already own this area so i can sound like i'm putting long-term capital to
work besides a 401k and as far as the best names out there which some of your guys go over like
shea loves to go over that you know the new innovative names that'll lead the next rally
well so far we can't have them lead a
rally when we don't even know if we have a bottom or close to a bottom or where we stand through
earnings season. So it's a lot of conserved brainpower, conserved account capital, and
really be patient. Today, a lot of guys are like, oh, can we buy a long hair?
You know, can we test the spies at 515?
I'm like, look at the chart.
I'm like, it just broke 520.
There's absolutely nothing in the way to 509.
If you're going to try something, try 509.
And even here, it's having a hard time
getting any kind of real bounce.
Very easy to get run over and very hard to make.
So that environment says do a little less and really wait and pick your spots better and know your time frame.
A lot of people on TV talk about, oh, well, this dip will be buyable.
Of course it will be.
But three months, six months, a year, like how long does this last and how much buying power do you have?
And what time frame do you trade?
Yes, a 27-year-old 401k individual shouldn't
worry. Either should a 40-year-old. But if you, you know, are going to get paid in April for a
living like a lot of our listeners do, you better know your levels. You better not overtrade. You
better know what the market's listening for. Two weeks ago, we were oversold enough for when Trump
did a tweet about, you know, a 90-day pause or things are going great.
Spies won five points.
Now it's going 80 cents.
So these are like little things you have to watch until something else changes that's going to either be a small catalyst or not.
And as of right now, it feels more like a de-risking here where reality is setting in
that there's no reason to be in a rush until at least there's something compelling.
And right now this is not a compelling spot on the spies or the queues.
We didn't hold a higher retracement to make it seem like we were going to go higher
than we went back on, what was that?
That was on April 9th.
And now it's just a matter of where does this market discovery take us
and why be in the way of it?
Unless you're a good short.
There's some guys that made good money today shorting 520.
That was a decent spot.
You could have shorted 520 and then shorted when it stayed below it.
Yeah, absolutely.
What do you think of the people, Scott, for the first time shorting?
I hear some people talk about a simple thing they do is they just flip the charts upside down and kind of use their their kind of
long indicators obviously i'm sure you want to do the short side stuff but is that something you've
ever seen people do or like have any thoughts on it yeah listen you have to psychologically get
yourself accustomed to things so if someone says flip the chart upside down that's a great way to
do it some people play the reverses so it looks like it's going up, but it's really going down.
Some people like today, I said, if we break 520, we can see 510.
Some people were like, okay, I'm shorting 520.
I'm turning my computer off.
I'm putting a stop in at 521.70.
I'm risking $1.70, and they might have made 10 points today.
Everyone has their own type of emotional threshold.
So whatever gives you a way to get involved, and then all of a sudden you have success.
And then once you have success, you breed confidence.
And once you breed confidence, you do things a little different.
And then you start doing it in your comfort zone.
So if you want to expand your comfort zone into the stretch zone, you just have to do things in a way that your mind can handle it.
handle it and then you have success and then your mind will handle more stuff then all of a sudden
And then you have success and then your mind will handle more stuff.
Then all of a sudden you'll say, hey, I can do this too.
you'll say hey i could do this too i don't you know so so it's a matter of uh what unique way
you go flip the chart upside down play a reverse etf short put a stop higher turn your computer off
or just sit on cash and and wait and say hey you know i lost long i don't the last thing i want to
do is get squeezed short and then lose both ways and then be really pissed off. You know, that's not fun.
So sometimes it's just better to just do what you're really good at.
Do a few things you're not as good at just to make some money that maybe you get more familiar with
or just wait and pick your spots and you don't have to be in every move.
What's up, Mike? You've had your hand up a little?
Yeah. Hey, Scott. I had the same level as you. I had 520, 510, 510, 509 close enough mapped out
today. I'm not a great short and I tried shorting a couple of times today and I made a little money,
but the way this market goes, it breaks and it just comes running right back up in your face.
They love to do that. It's making it it really tough you have to have conviction to short and i personally believe
the risk is to the upside because of one you know tweet or a deal gets made and the market takes off
here i will add i think we're making an h cell pattern on the daily chart on the indexes on spy
right we have that push up and rolling over now that could turn into a nice little W if we decide to do a double bottom down around that 490 area.
But to me, I kind of agree.
There's just nothing here really to be in.
Palantir was, like you said, out of the gate.
I did take some MSTX for a trade when Bitcoin rallied hard this morning for a little bit.
But there's just so many names.
There's so much technical damage on these names right now.
And we got earnings starting tomorrow, right?
Tesla tomorrow night's a big one.
And I can't imagine anybody has the slightest good feel that they're going to have a good report.
It's really going to be all about what he can sell on that conference call because it's not going to be about the numbers.
We know the numbers can't be good.
At what point, though, does it go into these things of like the expectations get low enough? Maybe Tesla and some of these other ones have to take the hit for these other
names that go in a little bit of a year in earnings season? I mean, Tesla, it could be
built in at this point, maybe even NVIDIA. Apple, I'm not sure. And the same thing with names like
Microsoft and Amazon. I just don't know. You're going to have to see what some other companies
say, in my opinion. Tesla's been beaten up pretty good and i'm sure he's going to sell uh you know
robotics ai uh cyber taxi right that's going to be the push uh tomorrow night on that conference
call and the one thing i think that could really make tech go ahead oh sorry i just you know i i
feel like i feel like the market's not in the mood for that right now. I think Elon's
exhausted. He's so beaten up from his Doge stuff. I remember a bunch of quarters ago,
October 23rd, 2024, that was a really good quarter to expect nothing and have better than
feared. And if you remember, we had a nice gap up. I love to be long Tesla. It's working. You and I,
I feel like we usually have the same playbook, like with the 520, the 510. The title of my note
was a V to a W. We were both technically trained. I feel like people like Red Dog,
first they were trying to bully me into a Netflix call spread, which wouldn't have worked. And the
stock was up 20 points. Tesla has kind of been beaten up enough where it's a little interesting.
But I just feel like at this point, the market's just not in the mood for like robotics and robo taxis and pie in the sky.
They want some nuts and bolts right now because they're getting sick of Trump.
I think there's one thing that he could say.
What is that?
I'm leaving Doge and coming back.
Musk.
Yes.
If he announced on the call, I'm done with doge and i'm coming back full time to tesla i think that would
be a catalyst to get the stock ripping again yeah then everything else has merit i think that's the
i think that that could if that happens you know you get a 25 30 point gap up and you can make some
money in a call but it's almost worth It's almost worth risking three to make eight or
five to make 20 in some kind of call spread if that happens. And then if it doesn't happen,
though, you really can't be long because the stock could be down 25 points. It's just
coming back to macro support now. It's like making support from 216 across. So it's oversold,
but it's still just at the bottom of a range. You can even go really far back to July of 2024.
This 200 to 218 is a huge spot.
And if numbers are that bad and countries are really rebelling against the brand
and so people here and he's exhausted and doesn't come on the call
and being all rambunctious, this thing could be down 30, 40 points, if not more.
I would say the only way to play it is after the fact,
or with some kind of call spread or put spread or just wait.
I'm with you.
I won't take any risk into it.
The other thing I watched was Netflix, which the report was a good report,
and their guidance was good overall.
And then they really can't get going on that either.
With everybody out there upgrading today.
So I'm about 80-something percent cash right now.
I've deployed a little bit on last Wednesday when we had the pop.
But to your point, I'm not in a rush to buy anything else right now for my long term.
Just letting it sit and rest until this market decides it's down to bottom.
Right.
What you could do is for everyone out there, it's like if you have long-term money that we talk about blood in the street account,
you could – those accounts you only want to buy into extreme scenarios.
And right now, this spot, unless you miss, like if you didn't buy anything during the last move of the spies down towards 481,
and you're like, all right, now we're – I don't even know how many – what percent?
We're 14% off highs, I have a cash account, and you don't have two tiers out of four long-term
end, you know, into indice funds, which I'm talking about. I'm not talking about stocks right now.
Then maybe you do one tier with the potential of two more, only if we make lower lows or only if
we see significant work being done where it feels as if the market's turned the corner,
then you could add on strength. Into corrective phases or bear markets, you only want to buy extremes to the
downside. Otherwise, it's not worth it. And then after things rebuild, when things start working,
you know, then maybe you add, you know, for that. But then that's also when your swing account's
working, your day trading account's working, and it's a totally different scenario. Right now, it's,
hey, how do I take advantage of crazy extreme prices, which if you already bought those April lows, you're not buying again here unless you're just trading, which is a different story.
And that's it.
Trading, I'll take shots here and there.
But again, to your point, I'm not buying here either.
And I think a lot of people need to hear that because you've you've been doing this for a long time i've been doing
this uh full time now for about 15 years i learned a lot from you coming up and you know i think
people just you know they hear people out there saying i'm buying i'm buying i'm buying and they
don't really you know listen to people who've been doing this for a while or more cautious
who are usually more bullish and i i'm generally a bullish guy. This action has me saying, there's something not right here.
This market's really just not right.
Yeah.
You know, there's definitely defense.
Defense wins, offense wins games.
Defense wins championships.
And defense is what keeps traders in the business for,
I've been doing it actually almost 25 years,
not 15 to believe it or not, I'm that old.
But, you know, this is one of those spots where you got to, if you make your money by 950, I've been doing actually almost 25 years not 15 believe it now I'm that old but um
You know, this is one of those spots where you got it If you make your money by 950 which a lot of us do you keep it, you know
The complexion changes sometimes you you go after a trade that worked
Like if I would have went after Palantir again after that first move from down a dollar up to and then all of a
Sudden I go it's back when you down 50 cents
Yeah, it'd be like no, no, now it's changed.
People aren't buying anything higher.
Some traders came in and they've been used to buying it, and there were some shorts that
were uncommitted, so it caused that first 15-minute move.
But now real sellers are saying, hey, we don't need to own this thing here, especially if
the market's going lower.
So we'll wait.
So actually, for Palantir, 89 now, that level held.
That was a big level.
Same thing with Dash.
Dash has been a really great name too.
And people are like, I'm buying Dash.
I'm like, okay, just be careful.
If they don't hold any names, you know, in higher levels and they break 520,
chances are 176 is going to hold for Dash and next level is 164.
So it's almost like you have to keep connecting these dots on how you want to play these things
and how active you want to be. And even with Netflix, like Netflix, again,
could have held 1,000 and went to 1,015 if the market was going to hold in there today, but
Netflix gave you clues saying, hey, nobody needs to really sit here and buy higher to sell higher
because it's just not happening in this tape right now.
Until it does yeah i mean you wake up anyone anybody looking at htz
yeah it hurts hey that was actually a great trade that one um you know that was actually
interesting just to talk about for a second mich Michael, because a lot of people out there trade using filters.
They just look for volume. They just look for things that might not be on their go to list.
You know, I'm not that's not how I've made a living.
I tend to go to a few of them when my alpha team points out because a lot of them do that for a living.
But it just goes to show you in this job, you know, that we're here to make money when it's there.
I remember, you know, HTZ, that morning I was in the morning, I sorted up 80 cents in the morning.
And I'm like, oh, I wonder what's going on here.
It must be one of those meme short squeezes.
I looked at it.
I'm like, yeah, you know, okay, I'm not going to touch it now.
like, yeah, you know, okay, I'm not gonna touch it now. And then when Scott Wapner came on at a
315 and started talking about Ackman and started talking about taking 18 to 20% and then knowing
about, you know, it's a short interest and it was a potential bankruptcy and we saw moves that's
happened in the past. If you look at that chart, if you would have went after it on that Wednesday
into Thursday, like that two day move could make your month. If you're sitting in your chair and you're ready to pounce,
if something fits your, you know, your ingredients, you know,
that those are ingredients for people who look for volume, day one,
short interest, potential continuation.
And that was something different than your Apple and your Meta and your
Amazons and your NVIDIAs.
That was just, that was a specific, you look at the chart.
First, you put the chart up.
It's been in the base for a long time.
You look at the short interest of the volume, you know,
the relationship between Ackman and Ackerman, however you say it,
and Scott, and then you get a day one, and then boom,
the next day it was up another, you know, 18%.
And right to that day and a half trade, if you were ready to go,
could have made your April.
And that kind of stuff does happen in this business.
So don't get negged out.
Don't be like a Shelly yourself.
You still have to come in.
You still have to do your work.
You still have to look at your volume filters.
You still need to know what the narrative is.
And you cannot be worn out because at any time something could change
and then all of a sudden you want to be in the first day one part of it
versus chasing it on day three when everyone else is talking about it.
I appreciate you, Scott.
Definitely feel free to keep talking about the conversation.
I want to throw it over to Jeff, Mr. Jeff Hirsch.
We have a lot to do on the space in a little bit, it feels like.
Got anything you want to throw into that conversation here with Scott and Mike have been talking about?
Yeah, I mean, you know, these guys are, you know, seasoned.
They know what they're talking about. You got to you got to trade within your in your lane.
You got to sit on the sidelines when you can.
I've been talking about some of this weakness for a while.
You know, we're going back in a little bit on some of the seasonal charts.
There's not some of them, all the post-last year seasonal charts.
There's a little run-up from April through May.
That's sort of the last couple of months of NASDAQ's best eight months.
So we're taking a little nibble on the Qs and the IWMs.
Today was a nice day to get that.
I mean, we'll see where it ends up.
We're also playing a little defense in the bonds.
The SGOV is the one I'm holding, the short-term, real short-term treasury.
And looking at some of the currency ETFs, the FXE, the FXE, the FXF, and the FX.
Is it J?
Is it Japan?
Or is it Y? It's the Y. Is it J is the Japan or is it Y?
It's the Y is the yen.
And also the DBA commodities basket ETF.
So, you know, we're into the week seasonal period and the defense is already ready to come on the field for us. So, you know, we've been playing this game for a while, and we're sticking to our system.
A lot of the portfolios got cleared out.
I'm scrolling up, looking at my last newsletter with the post-election year pattern for the SPX.
And the current year is just well below everything.
And, you know, I just am sensing there's going to be some chop and weakness through Q3.
VIX is still elevated.
Yeah, if you can trade this and you're nimble, have at it.
Otherwise, you know, patience, cash, pick your points.
But don't overtrade this.
And was it Mike, the options Mike there?
I think he was saying about not a great shorter.
I'm no good at shorting, so I don't even bother.
You got to do what you do best.
I suck at it, Jeff.
I don't even do it.
I'm actually not the greatest trader.
I got to stick to my investing and my swing trades and my seasonal action.
I'm an emotional guy at heart, so I got to check my emotions at the door just like everybody else.
So like Scott was saying, you know, you got to play your game. guy at heart so i gotta check my emotions at the door just like everybody else so um like scott
was saying you know you gotta play your game and my game's seasonality on top of fundamentals and
tacticals and and policy and and uh and sentiment and history so that's what i'm playing and right
now it just says hey man all bets are off. There's a lot of chaos.
We know that there's a major shift going on, some sort of regime change.
Not quite sure where it is.
Any tweet could bounce this market.
So you've got to position yourself carefully.
And I dipped the toe back in.
I'm taking smaller positions in some of these seasonal queues in the IWM rally that shows up on my charts here.
It's not a full position.
I may add to it, depending on what the tacticals are.
But, you know, it's the sideline time for us.
This is the rotated May, repositioned May period that we're coming into.
The thing with the best months when they don't't do well it's really a bad sign for the
market when when i've had this discussion over the years i mean jc and i've always discussed this that
um you know when seasonality doesn't deliver it becomes an indicator and we have a negative best
six months that means other stuff's more powerful i, it's not like I haven't said this before on the space here. Q1 was down. You know, we broke through. Yeah, we had a positive
January barometer, which is positive, but the other indicators were negative. We broke through
December closing low. You know, it's just not all adding up on that, you know, pros and cons.
What's the thing with, I think it's with romance.
If you got to weigh the pros and cons, it's probably not working out, you know.
So if I got to weigh the pros and cons of this market,
it's definitely cautious at a bare minimum.
By the way, I like what you said about seasonals,
that if, you know, if something happens over years and decades
and it doesn't happen, that means there's some kind of prevailing force that's a lot stronger.
So read into that.
Have you heard me quote Edson Gould on that?
Oh, you're not taking credit?
You're not taking credit?
No, I mean, I'm taking credit, but it comes from an old guy who, you know,
passed away, like I think he died in 80, 70,
in an old news that are finance and forecast, one of the old almanac quotes. It's like kind of pretty much what you just said, you know, passed away. I think he died in 80, 70, in an old newsletter, Finance and Forecast. One of the old Almanac quotes.
It's like kind of pretty much
what you just said, you know.
I've quoted it.
It's in my newsletter several times.
Interestingly, though,
on a short-term seasonal note,
aside from the importance of,
you know, when season only doesn't work,
that other forces are stronger
and it becomes an indication,
today is the day after Easter,
a very bearish day in the stock market.
Tomorrow is bullish.
If you look at the feed, you'll see the tables on the Easter trade.
It's also in the Almanac. So, you know, however, or, you know, while there's things going on that are aside from seasonality,
it's interesting that this weakness occurs on a
very notoriously weak day after a holiday in the Almanac. Well, doesn't now, I think a lot of my
guys were asking me what happens with the blackouts. Aren't we in that timeframe where
Apple can't buy their stock back, Amazon can't? So all those buybacks that usually support prices,
certain prices, they can't start buying their own stock until after the report.
So there's less pressure to the upside,
especially in a weaker tape than there's just no support.
That's why I guess we dropped $16 today.
Normal down days, five points in the spooze or 0.6 here.
This is 3% and this feels actually kind of normal, believe it or not.
Yeah, earnings season has a big impact on the seasonality for sure.
Yeah, like the two weeks before, they're not allowed to buy back anymore
and buybacks are so important.
That's definitely something to look for.
And then afterwards, once earnings season is done
and they can initiate their buybacks,
then if you're super weak and they're buying stuff back,
then that tells you something too.
Perhaps that fuels that little seasonal rally I'm highlighting here,
a little near-term bounce.
But, you know, we've broken through so many support levels.
Technically, you know, it's almost like technicals don't matter anymore,
or at least not yet.
They've got to rebuild themselves.
I don't know.
They were asking you before if you were seeing any, Scott,
if you were seeing any signs of a low.
It didn't sound like it.
No, well, you had like, okay, so you had the low at 481, right?
So it made actual sense.
481 was the low.
Everyone was looking at 480 to 485.
You had that reflex oversold bounce news on the rhetoric back up to 547,
which was kind of old support that turned into resistance.
And then we came back, and then if you look at April 11th, we kind of held in there, made a higher low.
And then we were digesting a little bit below where some thought, hey, maybe we just held
the 0.25 retracement or the 0.381.
Maybe we're going to get a deal out of China.
Maybe we're going to get something ink instead of rhetoric.
And then when it didn't happen, we rolled over.
Now we are basically
a little bit through the 50% retracement. So it's shown there's not a lot of demand for anything
here. And now that V that had some shorts kind of on the ropes and maybe some people saying,
I got to buy some of these things. And now like, hey, I could just wait and see if this V turns
into a W. Do we have to retest the lows? You already have names like Meta back at the lows.
So if Meta can make a low on 2025, well, the indices are so much above it.
Why can't Amazon?
Why can't, you know, Apple that just broke 192?
You know, it's so a lot of things are just pointing to the fact that you don't need to be in a rush.
You know, what did Coach Wooden say?
You know, that's a great.
Yeah, there's a i was just in uh in st kit's a little while ago
over over february and there's a reggae uh beach grill bar grill there their their logo their
motto is rush slowly like sort of an eyelid vibe so patiently aggressive yes uh what was that john
madden says controlled abandon, right? Or said.
Anyway, this April low thing looks like it's got where this potential W you're talking about right now.
It's got a it seems like the important support area right now.
Right here is like this is this would be a higher low.
The important low is 480 to 493. If gets there in the next you know if it got there quick
it would be kind of compelling because that means we're oversold that means you know it's a little
less pain if it gets over a bunch of days and you're testing levels in no man's land that could
hurt like if all of a sudden we rally and close today at 513 and then we're up tomorrow because
it's you know an almanac doubt and we only take back five points of the 16 it's really just another
day in the life.
Also, not every day means anything. It just means, did you act right and make some money or not?
Not every day is a bottom. Not every day is an important trigger or whatnot. Sometimes it's just a day in the life of building charts, going through monotonous news cycles. I'm hearing a lot of
monotonous news cycles. I'm hearing a lot of negative comments. So I want to be the Leroy
Jenkins of this crowd and just kind of bring up if I were in my 20s, I would probably be buying
this market, to be honest with you. It does feel like 2008 kind of buying maybe on the way down,
a little further down. But I think this
is the kind of market where if you're younger, Amazon is trading at its lowest PE ever, not
even close to where it's ever been trading. So in my mind, you have 25% of the S&P that's
trading over its 200-day. I, you know, they're saying nothing
ever good happens under the 200 day. Well, if your timeline's a little bit longer,
good things do happen under the 200 day. Well, yeah. Listen, by the way, let me just add to
that. Like, so you're saying for guys in their 20s, this is a good time to buy, which all of
us have said, like in your long-term account, that you don't get paid for April.
And yes, there's a certain portion you could put in here, but you have to also be prepared
that 21% off the highs might turn into 27%, but it doesn't really matter if you're in
your 20s.
So what kind of account are you talking about?
Are they buying funds in their 401k?
Are they trying to be stock pickers?
Are they putting in their IRA?
Do they have an E-Trade account?
That's what I try to do with people on the network it's like that everyone's talking about okay i
would be buying here well what would you be buying here you said amazon was good you know i still own
apple from 2008 when everybody said nobody's ever going to buy an iphone because it's going to cost
too much that's a lot different yes i mean i i nervously picked up a few things today, too. The Qs, which is basically the set Max 7 and the IWM.
So, yeah, I mean.
Yeah, but you guys aren't looking to get paid for that for April.
You're not prop traders.
No, no.
I'm retired.
Definitely not.
I'm retired.
That's good.
No, I get it.
That's in my IRA.
And again, that's a good timeframe technology for some of the young individuals that don't know who we are because a lot of people don't know who we are.
And some of them are trying to prop trade.
They've been trading for a year or two, and they have to figure out how to do that.
And then some just have a job and want to put things in for the long term, which into these type of moves, that's what you should do.
And if you have a 401k…
And Scott, those young kids don't even know who Leroy Jenkins is.
So maybe my advice fell on deaf ears.
Maybe they should learn on a podcast, right?
That's why Spot's doing so well.
Everyone's looking up podcasts or get their own podcasts.
But yeah, it's just very important,
you know, what you're looking to do. Long term, put money in every single month. If you want to
do extra homework, you could pick stocks. If you don't, just use S&P funds. If you want to trade
for a living, you better be, you know, have the pulse of this tape every second because there's
a fine line between losing a little and losing a lot and making a little and making a lot and
knowing what means what. So that's, you know, that's the crust of it. And I losing a lot and making a little and making a lot and knowing what means what.
So that's the crux of it.
And I think a lot of people intraday listening to this, they probably do trade a little bit for a living too. So besides save for the future.
And for the future, this is a great time to dip your toe in, to buy here for more than a few days or for April
or for even the second quarter,
then that's something else you have to think about.
And like Jeff said, he bought the Qs.
I looked at the weekly chart at the Qs this morning.
It's the first time in 10 years that it's been oversold.
So if you have a 10-year timeframe and it's oversold,
and Jeff, exactly.
I mean, woo-hoo.
It just kind of seems to me like dipping your toe in the water and having a dollar-cost average kind of strategy.
And again, I was just trying to point out there are times to buy.
It's not all doom and gloom.
We could have another 11% rally just on a tweet.
The market is coiled for something. I just think the longer that we go, the less likely it's going to coil big like it did.
On that 9% day? I don't think, yeah, I feel like the market, every now and then you get that big
9% when it's the first time around. There is definitely risk to the upside if something
different comes out,
maybe a deal inked with India.
I think that's what people are talking about a little bit.
Maybe India inks a deal with Japan.
Those are the two, and then that helps bring China to the table.
So that's like the dominoes for what could spur a rally from here besides levels.
Yeah, a little seasonal pop there maybe too.
Yeah.
There's one on trading there.
Exactly.
There's a bunch of hands up.
You guys should just jump in too when you guys get the chance to
if you guys want to answer the question.
Definitely if you want to keep it on topic, by the way.
I was just trying to go next to whenever people were done.
Yeah, that's why I figured it in that way.
Wolfie, I figured your question might be this way.
Yeah, no, it's not a question.
I just, I'm going to add to the conversation.
In general, I agree.
It's hard to disagree with what's been said.
You know, there are, I do feel like, you know,
meta came down and tested.
Basically it's low effectively with a penny. So for like, you know, meta came down and tested. Basically it's low effectively with a penny.
So for like, you know,
what Scott talks about if you're trying to get paid for April or if you're
trying to like make money, like that's kind of the kind of stuff you have to
look for, right?
You have to look for things that just trade right into a base,
right into like a support level,
kind of like how the market went down to its previous all time high.
You have to look for like dislocated trades.
Yes.
Earlier, like, did anybody take Hertz?
I took Hertz.
I mentioned it on Thursday.
I said I was looking for some sort of pullback to buy into as well.
That happened.
But like the mantra for me is when on days like today or like setups like today
where things kind of, you know, are down to the abyss,
kind of look for those dislocation names,
kind of look for those asymmetric names,
those idiosyncratic things on one side,
and then just like some stuff that could possibly be, you know,
at a floor or things like that.
So I just wanted to throw in, like, if you take a look right now,
the stuff that kind of has been outperforming for most of the day and is like
pressing into the highs right now are some of these beaten up retail names. So one that I could give like just as an
example is take a look at Target. Target trades into, you know, it's, I think it's 2019 highs.
It's been testing that level here in the last couple of days. And it's effectively kind of
like the same setup when Logical and Scott went back and forth last week and Logical gave the, you know, the far edge for like the bios where the biospace, but doesn't have that binary outcome situation, take a look at Lilly, you get 700.
Some of these, and obviously it had a headline I didn't expect that short, but some of these retail names kind of have a similar setup where they come into these support levels.
retail names kind of have a similar setup where they come into these support
levels. Obviously, completely different sector, completely different stuff.
But there are some things that do kind of look okay.
Another one that was mentioned multiple times on this space. Another one is
Dollar Tree. It looks like it's possibly forming bearish to bullish reversals.
And then the other biotech name I gave last week
is SDGR.
Uh, there was a headline FDA announced, uh, plans to replace animal testing.
Um, uh, and then loosen some of these AI restrictions.
That's basically the bread and butter of this company.
It's been flagging up against that, uh, resistance level that it hit when it broke out on the
back of it could have like a continuation, like just to kind of speak some names into kind of the stuff that they were
talking about. That's what I would do. Uh, I just,
that's what I wanted to do.
And those are some things that I'm looking at, um, outside of that,
like they were talking about Tesla and I gave like the best case scenario would
be, uh, Elon would say, you know, he's leaving Doge.
I'm going to play devil's advocate and say,
also the worst case scenario is if he said that you gapped up and the stock closed lower.
So I just kind of wanted to speak around some of the stuff they were talking to, give some names around it and go from there.
I like it.
You know what?
Just something really relative in day trading land.
Like, you know, just real quick for a resource a
lot of people talk about they talk about the view app and like we just had to move in the spies from
508 46 like the view app on the day is 512 71 so some people would say like you know you guys are
just talking bearish and look at you with contrarian indicator where spies just won 40 you know
four points why did that happen some things are mechanical so with the lesson of view app so
sometimes there'll be institutions that say hey i want I want to sell the market at the VWAP or I
want to buy it at the VWAP. So sometimes when you have a big down move, like you've had things
kind of gravitate back to the VWAP. So if you're looking to stay short in the day, you want to
short into the VWAP, you know, because that's where the sellers are that are programmed
institutionally. Same way if, you know, you want way if you're buying something and it's above it and it's three, four points above it.
And midday, you're like, wait, why did we just pull into the VWAP?
It's because that's where the computer buyers are.
So you want to kind of know what that is intraday.
So it'll be interesting for the next 20 minutes.
Does the spies get rejected into 512.71?
And then do we close near the lows or not?
And if you get above it, everyone that kind of shorted it into the VWAP, then all of a sudden you get like a move, a dollar and a half above it.
So these are just kind of tactical ways that people look intraday to make cash flow besides longer term type stuff.
Yeah, so on that same concept, I totally, like, this is nothing to
disagree there, but like, um, there's also what, what Scott was saying earlier about like, we get
this like melt down. It's like the pain trade. It's like not what you want to see. Part of the
reason is if you aggressively sell down or go up in bull market, you get disconnects on timeframes, right? So you'll
get like, you know, the short, short, short, short, short term person really gets washed out.
But maybe that intermediary, that intermediary level is like 5% higher, which means the trend
could still be lower. But now there's like a really aggressive disconnect. And I'm mentioning
this now because like I mentioned the retailers and part of the reason I think you get some of these
bids on some of these names is just because how beaten up they are just like on a very short,
like the short, short, short term seller gone. If you sat through the sell off, you know,
you know, in the last couple of weeks and it hasn't made that new low,
in the last couple of weeks and it hasn't made that new low, you're not going to sell here.
you're not going to sell here. And then it just kind of creates these,
you know,
gap opportunities for like just a short term mean reversal.
And then could it revisit lower? Maybe.
But if you're just trying to look for these pockets,
that's kind of like one way to look at it.
You just narrow down one hour, four hour, et cetera.
A hundred percent. You know, we just literally, well,
we were at 529 on Thursdayursday so down in 508 that's
the last spot you want to press but a rally back to 512 or 514 or maybe more than you're like okay
that's that's a spot if you look if you look at it over two three days versus over you know the
the intraday or daily so you have to match up time frames to figure out you know is this trade
worth it and is this something different or it's just a retrace because of the mechanics of
where we were a bunch of days back, you know, and it's always, this is like day four down in the
spies and, you know, same, you never really want to, you know, short day four down because again,
it's, it might not be really oversold according to like the McClellan Oscillate and whatnot, but for the hourly, it could definitely test your commitment to it if there's a counter trend for a bunch of hours.
Hey, guys, I'm going to jump in here real quick because I've got a lunch date with my wife.
So, you know, whenever I'm on a space like this, I'm always trying to think about what would be valuable to the people that are listening. Because a lot of us are traders. A lot of us have been doing this for a long time.
Sometimes we get in our own world. We forget that there's people out there that maybe are not
as adept at trading and everything. So I look at it like 95% of people shouldn't trade to begin
with, right? They should just be sticking to their 401ks, their IRAs, their dollar cost
averaging. The problem is you don't know if you're in that 5% or not, unless you take a shot at it,
right? But even if you are in that 5%, for me personally, I think 99% of people should not be
trading this market right now that we're in because, you know, I can't remember in doing this almost 40 years, a market that could turn so fast on so much information so quickly.
I mean, even like during the financial crisis, we didn't have the news flow that we have in this sort of market.
And so, you know, all your technicals, all your levels, all those things like that, they kind of go out the window in a
market like this. Now, I'm not saying you can't do it, but I'm just saying the cost benefit of
the effort that you have to put in this sort of market, I think for most people,
they should be staying away from it. And so I think what you do when you're not trading,
or you're just watching and you're being patient, is you remember you don't have to trade, right? Unless you're being patient is you remember you don't have to
trade, right? Unless you're on an institutional desk, you don't have to trade. You don't have
any timeframe. And so I think it's a really good time to just sit and go through your methodology,
kind of look at how you've done maybe the last six months of last year. I just put out a, I've
got a new series for my subscribers called Meditations on Markets. And I just did one
about decluttering your trading process. And it's about how to go through everything from like your
setups to your charts to your mentality and kind of get rid of the stuff that you, that doesn't
give you any benefit. My point is, I just, I think there's too much talk on Twitter and I'm not
talking about this group here, but just in general about people trying to find ways to trade this market. And I think for most people that are not
professionals, they probably shouldn't be thinking about that. They should be thinking about just
standing on the sideline and use that time to your benefit. Take a look at what your methodology is.
How have you done the last few months? What asset classes have worked for you? What sort of stocks?
What's your drawdown been? I think that's going to be a much more productive thing than to try to figure out when
we're going to get the next reflexive rally or what crazy hot stock you can jump on today or tomorrow.
Yeah, reflection is always good, definitely. And again, that kind of goes with a little bit of the
the concept of when things are in no man's land they're not compelling and it's not like a really
good spot then you should be looking back on how you handle the previous spots looking back and
how you execute whatever it is you think your edges and and learn from it you can look you can
learn a lot from looking back especially when there's nothing to do right in front of you. Yeah, I just worry, I worry that guys like you and me, Scott, who've
been doing it for a long time, it's kind of in our blood, we breathe it, we sleep it, we eat it,
but I worry about people that think, oh, I'm just going to jump into it, right, jump into a volatile
market, and then they get hurt. So I just, you know, I want to let people know that this is not really an optimal market,
in my opinion, even for me.
Like, you know, one of the things that we have out here in Southern California is every
10 to 15 years, you have to get your house termited and you got to be out for three days.
So like we termited our house last week.
I took the family down to La Jolla.
We just got away from the market.
And I just want to remind people there's a whole other world out there and you shouldn't be hyper-focused on the market,
getting stressed out if you don't have to be doing it, right? If that's not your main
source of income, I think you're doing yourself a disservice to be too fixated on what's happening
right now. Yeah, well, that actually goes in kind of concept, that actually goes in line with two. I remember last year at
this time, I got into a fight with Portnoy because he came back to the market with Davey Day Trader,
and he was bringing all the kids that met with him during the pandemic because there was nothing
to do. And he was calling the stock market a casino. He had no process, no plan. He made a
little bit of money when he caught the stocks don't go down thing. And then from 2021 to 2022, stocks went down a lot and people blew up because they should never have been trading the stock market, at least that way.
And then I think he came back a year ago. Mike, oh, so you're coming back at the top.
And we had that whole big fight and then I let it go.
But P.S., you know, it's very hard to make money in the stock market consistently.
It's very hard to have a career in the stock market. It's very hard to have a career in the stock market it's very hard to do really
anything because everyone's telling you that you shouldn't you know the TV will
say you know investing is is risky but it's more riskier not to have like a
401k of 529 any kind of plan you know so that's one thing and then trading wise
there are times when it's really difficult and And right now, things could change really fast.
And I know a lot of people have been doing this a long time.
And they're definitely a little frustrated and struggling.
So if you've been doing this for three months, a year, year and a half, and you feel like you're struggling, then definitely get determinate your house and take a step out of the market for a little bit.
That's why I say when you're in a rut, you get simplified and just get small.
Get small, get out of the way, get green, feel good,
and things start to change.
And then all of a sudden you're feeling better
and things are a little bit more fluid slash trending.
And it's just easier.
There are tough times to trade the market right now.
Even though there's volatility,
it's not easy volatility in my opinion either.
All right, guys.
My wife's glaring at me, so I've got to run.
But thanks for the conversation.
Appreciate it.
All right.
Have a good time with your wife.
My wife.
What movie is that from?
Fora.
There you go.
My anniversary is Thursday, actually, 21 years.
But anyway.
So here we are. Listen, guys, it's $3 it's 350 also i have to go back to the alpha team get on the radio kind of situate for the close i don't
have a lot going on i've tried to stay with bitcoin all day um i kind of i sold into some
strength that into this pullback i rolled out a little bit higher calls just in case this wants
to continue um you know we came off lows a little bit higher calls just in case this wants to continue.
You know, we came off lows a little bit.
That 509 area was a pretty good area.
I don't, you know, I think the overnight's a little bit of a coin toss.
I don't think you need to be short overnight just because we rallied.
And, you know, if we're going to be up a little bit tomorrow, you know, actively, it's hard to tell.
Again, I think less is more overnight because you don't want to get caught on a counter trend tweet or narrative. And I don't know who's going to take it into the close.
Scott, I was going to just before you head out of here, I was going to ask you, I mean,
did you take a look at any of the bios? Today, XBI fairly read on the day, it was actually up 1.2%.
BBC, which is the clinical stage bios,
that index up 3% today.
A lot of bios in my portfolio.
I mean, that ARQT I mentioned the other day to you,
up 4% on the day.
Yeah, definitely.
I actually, sorry.
Yeah, I talked about it in my note also,
and I've been looking at that.
I looked at the XBI before. It was actually up before we made that leg lower, and now it's only down 30 cents with the S&P down.
That's a true technical signal that it's starting to relatively outperform exactly how you said it.
Yeah, yeah, and I think I want to just make one comment of what happened on Friday when the markets were closed.
I think what's been getting priced into the biotech market is max pessimism.
You know, you had the last FDA commissioner essentially getting ousted, citing RFK.
People just assumed, you know, FDA is going to be changed forever.
And then you had Mark Macri, which is the new newly appointed FDA commissioner, come out with an interview on Friday.
Of course, markets were closed.
And he basically said, we're going to be cutting the red tape.
We're going to be approving more drugs, rare diseases more than before.
And so it seems like that's kind of the sentiment shift that this sector needed.
And you're starting at basement valuations.
Like I said, a lot of these clinical names probably have the most upside from here because
that index, BBC, is a good understanding of that.
It's not like 75% maybe in the last six months.
So clearly a lot of damage from people, you know, just max fears selling things and, you
know, names like Rocket Pharmaceuticals up 13% today, Regenexx Bio.
That's the one that I called out last time uh that it trades pennies on the dollar
they have uh you know 14 of cash by june trading at under seven dollars today with three phase three
trials uh avvi partnerships etc up you know 12 today uh cure uh was up a lot more in the morning
faded a bit but up three percent today after being up 40 on uh thursday so you know i don't think the trial progressions come
to any sort of halt here uh if anything they get accelerated down to approvals and uh the biotech
companies i the commercial ones i look at as healthcare growth companies and uh you know
they're they're just getting launched on their uh on their commercial launches they're they're
just wrapping up those sales and margins should expand, etc.
So I think it's a really good place to go.
70% of my long portfolio is in biotech.
So yeah, I'm a big believer from here.
I think this is, you're buying basically max pessimism, even if you get, you know, you buy a little bit higher.
I mean, these things are still down 70% in the last few months.
So yeah, that's a good one. And I think Latin
America is something that you should all be paying attention to. Colombia, green on the day,
CIB, A-B-A-L. And Brazil, a lot of names just barely right on the day. So I think those are
two really good themes right now. Yeah. And the market's kind of showing you also. So being a
little bit ahead you know watching
the action and then action confirming it that's when you start adding you know that's good and
xbi definitely is relatively outperforming compared to what's gone on the past few days so it's
definitely the sector itself the etf is giving you some clues and then the individual names that
you went over yesterday or not yesterday sorry last mond last Monday or Tuesday was definitely a lot of them are a lot higher.
So that's, that's good value add.
Yeah. Looking forward to it.
Anyways,
I just wanted to make those comments just because before you head out for the
day.
All right. Sounds great. All right. Good luck with the,
the last five minutes here.
We appreciate you, Scott.
If you're not following Scott and the other speakers,
you are completely missing out. We appreciate
all of them for joining in and
making this space so fantastic.
Thanks again for joining in, Scott.
This whole thing is recorded, by the way, so you can go
back and listen to the whole thing and also kind of
follow the speakers from there, too.
Evan, do you mind if I
just finish up kind of my combo
for the day? We actually
come to it after, because I imagine there's a couple other people we're going to drop
off here at the top of the hour.
So maybe we want to go to them and then we can come by.
My guess is Jeff and maybe Cliff. It might be both of those.
Yeah.
What's your take on the
IBV versus the XBI?
You know, I think it doesn't really
matter too much as long as you have exposure in the
sector. I haven't really
checked the holdings too much. I know that XBI was also reconstructed sometime last year
to take out a lot of the garbage. So that's why it's held up a lot better than some of the clinical
names. I think really you want to pick winners at the individual level, but I understand,
me, myself, I'm also not a biotech specialist. I'm a generalist. So I rely on people smarter
than me and have conversations with them
on a day-to-day basis and kind of try to feel out what's happening. And, you know, I look for
companies that look extremely oversold. Sales are ramping profit. I mean, majority of my portfolio
in the biotech side is commercial. So there's sales to go off of. It's just like studying any
other business. And I shouldn't see as much disruption there. And if you think about from
like a gross margins perspective, even if there were tariffs in the sector, cogs are so low that it wouldn't be much of a hit to their margins. So yeah, I mean,
from a commercial side, I think it makes a ton of sense. And from the clinical side, probably the
most upside. But yeah, we're not specialists, right, in biotech. And so we don't really know
a lot of the science. But I will say that, you know, buying a company that seems like, you know,
Seems like maybe there's a lot of good holders around it, people who you could trust, but also trading near maybe cash on the balance sheet.
maybe there's a lot of good holders around it, people who, you know, you could trust,
That's a big upside situation where you're basically getting the upside in the business for free.
Little rally to the close.
Cliff, you had your hand up?
Did you want to throw in?
Oh, yeah.
No, I liked what you guys were talking about earlier for younger people.
Obviously, I'm not much of a trader.
And, you know, considering if you are, you know, if you have stable employment, you know, being able to kind of, for lack of a better word, kind of be less, less emotional
with, with when you're, when you're purchasing, we're, we're big believers in, you know, automation,
systematic dollar cost averaging, things that are happening in the background. I know you guys had
mentioned 401ks and things like that. It's not uncommon to see, you know, a 401k be someone's
best performing asset over
the course of their life or account, um, over the course of their life, because they're
just so far detached from it.
Um, and it's usually times like this where you can trick yourself into, you know, changing
strategy or doing something a little bit different.
And you can put a lot at risk when it comes to, you know, long-term annualized returns by making a few missteps.
So kind of when you pull the emotions out of it, obviously it's a really hard thing to do, right?
Putting money to work and being in a place to put money to work right now, it might be tough for some people.
But usually, you know, markets like this can pose long-term opportunities. I
think it's Morgan Housel that has that awesome quote that's, every current sell-off looks like
a risk and every past sell-off looks like an opportunity. And I just liked what you guys were
saying there. Obviously, I'm a planner, advisor. So that's kind of the realm that I find myself in, less so on the trading side.
But yeah, it's a really hard thing to do, you know, to feel comfortable buying into the market.
When you're watching these big swings every day, especially when it's to the downside, that's not fun for anybody.
not fun for anybody. But when you have those crazy long time horizons, multiple decades ahead
of you, you know, you can kind of take out that, you know, it's, there's always going to be
uncertainty, right? But when you, when you fast forward or you zoom out and you look, you look,
you look all the way down towards the end of your career, it's likely that, you know,
most entry points are going to look like they were strategic one way or
another if you're looking back 30 years ago.
Appreciate you, Cliff.
We are coming to the market close here.
And like you were saying there for Jeff,
there is quite a little move here into the close so i'm gonna close today
firmly in the red but what might have been a down two three uh down like three percent plus days
maybe now down two two and a half percent day depending on what you have in your portfolio we
shall see but market did just close in there uh logical i'm gonna circle back to you then i want
to go to hamid and then uh we still got a couple people who haven't spoken we'll see where we're at from that but logical what's up if you want to go to other people you
can i just want to finish up kind of comments for the day although i can be quick if you want um
yeah just yeah go on do you want to give us the quick no give us the quicker version now
we're we'll see right after but yeah go for it yeah look look i mean there's clear um underperformers
and outperformers and i think what is really tough for a lot of people in this market right now is
that the things that are going to work in this market are few and far between and they're not
things that most people are comfortable with i mean i probably most people probably call me an
idiot because i talk about small caps all day and i'm not talking about small caps in general like
the iwm but like when you look at like specific businesses and specific sectors, like it takes a lot more time
than the typical, you know, buy tech and whatever. And that's going to work on majority of timeframes.
But there are going to be situations like this where, you know, tech is the one thing that's
super heavy and there's really not enough liquidity right now in this market to be able to support $3 trillion valuations across 10 different companies or whatever.
So, you know, can they be good buys in when we look back on this?
Yeah, probably.
But do they look like they're ready to bottom yet?
No, they don't.
And right now we have no clarity around tariffs.
And so input costs are still going up for names like Amazon.
You know, it's going to be tough for these guys to find bottoms.
And so, you know, I think one thing that's really interesting in this environment is
I'm willing to swing on names constantly. But for example, like I have to be, I have to keep a very
tight leash. And I know Stock Talk talks about this all the time is like, for instance, like
Snowflake, I really like that company. But, you know, on Thursday, we were looking like we were
about to close below the 200 day. And I have to keep my rules in place and say, look, this is not the kind of environment to get cute.
These things can go lower.
It's not like there's any valuation support.
There's really no appetite for owning high value tech stocks.
So, you know, I see it about to close on the 200 day and I just exit that position.
It's not like, you know, it was not like 5% or whatever today.
So, you know, I think it's just important to realize what environment
we're in. You know, how many times I talked about, you know, the cyclicality of data centers on these
spaces. And then, you know, we saw that Microsoft holding back, you know, two gigawatt hour data
centers or whatever it was maybe a month ago. And, you know, people told me, you know, that's a
Microsoft specific thing. Okay. And then today you get the note that, you know, Amazon is pausing
AWS data center investments. It's because when you you get the note that, you know, Amazon is pausing AWS data
center investments. It's because when you say the biggest number ever, like a hundred billion
dollars in CapEx, there's really nowhere to go down. There's really no going higher from that.
And now, and especially when, you know, you have these businesses, the core businesses that are
going to see potentially a weakening consumer, higher input costs. So revenue is going down,
costs are going up, margins are coming down, profits going down.
And how do you continue to invest that $100 billion?
Maybe they made those forecasts
before we started having a kind of a weaker economy
and higher input costs.
So, you know, that's the problem with, you know,
people constantly challenging me and saying,
well, we have really high CapEx numbers.
It's like, yeah, but those things are at risk.
As soon as you get anything, I mean, that's the problem problem right and i think that's the issue uh with where we are still
headed into this earning cycles because we still don't have clarity and really you're still priced
for perfection in a lot of names i'm not saying that we haven't really come down in valuations
many names but you know i think someone mentioned that maybe i don't know if someone mentioned it
but like palantir is still trading at like 80 times sales. You know, it had the, over the weekend,
the ICE contract that they got and that move entirely faded. What happens, you know, to stocks
when, you know, good news is faded, right? That's not bullish at all. So I think we still kind of
have elevated valuations. There's still uncertainty in the earnings.
You know, yesterday I had a post and it was basically like, you know, long biotech Latin America and catalyst names, catalyst trades.
The other day I covered Pubmatic and Magnite after the Google antitrust ruling.
We had a nice rally at the end of the day, but Pubmatic went from red to green today.
It was up 3% on the day, close at the highs of the day but pubmatic went from red to green today it was up three percent on the day close at the highs of the day i mean that's amazing um magnite
finished a little red minus one percent not bad great rally towards the end of the day but
i think catalysts can work uh you know so because they over it'll be like an overwhelming amount of
inflow for their business uh if a google ruling you know goes their way down the line so that's
something i'm very heavy in uh So I think catalysts work.
I think that biotech works, especially in a weaker economy
where investors look for growth and you're coming off of really low valuations.
You don't need much to go right in those situations.
When you're buying something really cheap, that's where it helps you.
And then, yeah, Latin America looks good.
I think there's going to be a lot of right wing shifts in politics
and getting to more stable economies down there.
And they seem to be the tariff winner with the blanket 10% tariff.
And they're really out of the headlines, which is really nice to see it.
And the other part of my post yesterday was short tech, short financials, short consumer, short airlines, short cruises.
short cruises. And, you know, I think it's a very simple trade in the sense that, look,
until we get clarity, you can kind of protect your portfolio in the things that are showing
relative weakness. They're below all moving averages. And it's very simple. Just like how
I said on the long side, if snowflake loses a moving average, I close that trade. If some of
these names on some news or some reason for me to believe that we have bottomed are able to reclaim moving
averages to the upside, that would be my stop on the short side and say, hey, maybe this market's
ready to go up. So I think what's really interesting right now is like, you know, people who poo poo
technicals, I don't think it's a lot of people who listen to this because we do have a good
amount of traders represented here is like, this is an environment where it's volatile. And listening
to moving averages and trends are really important in this environment so that you don't like let a loss become
a big loss. And I think that's really key, especially when you have kind of lower
conviction names. And I think I'll echo what other people said is like, you know,
depending on if you're doing this for long, long term, maybe you have separate
accounts for long term and short term trading, you know, long term, you could
keep buying to every two weeks and pray for lower prices because that would be great.
On a trading account, that's not what you want.
So it just depends on what you are, what you're doing.
I'm personally trying to optimize, you know, year to year my returns.
And I mean, like a day like today, I ended exactly flat, which is pretty crazy,
actually, literally minus 0.01%.
But when the SPY is down minus 2.35%, I mean, that's great outperformance. And I would
consider that alpha. And so if I can continue to show that relative outperformance, then it means
that these strategies are working and finding pockets of relative strength. I think it was
Wolfie mentioned Dollar Tree. I mean, go look at that chart. Go look at all the moving averages
on TradingView. It's above all of those moving averages and it reclaimed the 200 day. And it,
you know, so, and I think it finished the day green, I believe. Yes, it did. So, you know,
you got to be a lot more tactical in this environment. You can't just, it's not the
bull market that we've been used to for the last few years. You can't just throw a dart at the
board and, you know, see it go up because that's really what it's been. Low ball.
I mean, I don't even know if we had to, you know,
pull back more than 5% besides that August 5 meltdown,
which immediately recovered.
Anyways, I'll end it there is, you know, be more tactical.
Let me keep the combo going here.
Hamid, what's up?
How you doing?
You got anything you want to add into the conversation here?
I saw the meta pie.
Yeah. So before I get into it, here? I saw the Meta buy. Yeah.
So before I get into it, let me just preface it with that I'm a long-term investor.
I don't really make trades based on short-term markets or volatility.
But I did buy some Meta today.
My reasoning for it is because Meta's price just seems very, very attractive.
I love their investments and their positioning on AI and AR, VR.
They have three existing cash cow businesses that don't seem to be going anywhere,
and they seem to continue to be growing and benefiting from optimized AI advertising.
So all of Meta's existing businesses are very well positioned for growth.
And then they happen to be really well positioned for their investments that they're making
in the future with AI, AR and VR.
So one of the other things that I love about Meta is that it's founder run.
So one of the things that I talked about today is that at the same time that companies like Amazon
are like, hey, let's put a pause on data center investments
and our AI investments
because they're worried about their profitability
on the short term,
a founder-run company like Meta
that's being run by Zuckerberg is going to take short-term opportunities as investment opportunities for the long term. happens to dramatically go down because all these orders for H100 and Blackwell chips from NVIDIA
all of a sudden start to disappear. Well, NVIDIA still needs to sell those chips, so other buyers
might be able to pick them up at a discount. Same with building out these data centers. If all the
data center vendor providers of all the materials that these data centers need,
all of a sudden their orders disappear because, you know, Amazon is putting data center buildouts on hold,
or Microsoft reduces it, or Google reduces it.
Well, guess who's going to step in?
It's going to be the founders like Elon and Mark Zuckerberg and Sam Altman that are going to be making those big investments in the future.
In the short term, they're going to have losses.
Obviously, in the case of XAI, Elon's company, and OpenAI, Sam Altman's company,
neither one of those two really matter for short-term losses because they're not public companies.
But in Meta's case, they might actually even take a short-term hit on the cash flow side.
But long-term, they're going to be extremely well-positioned.
And that's the way I view it, is that these guys are making the right investments.
They've optimized.
They've really sort of focused on optimizing across the board, both in their labor, but
also their investments and just the talent that they bring on board.
So quite excited about Meta.
And then, you know, my other holdings, which are also very long term focused are Robin
Hood, which I think with their sort of banking product introductions and investment product
introductions just a couple of weeks ago, is extremely well positioned to take away
market share from everybody in the financial sector. productions just a couple of weeks ago, is extremely well positioned to take away market
share from everybody in the financial sector.
Rocket Lab, which is just gaining contracts left and right, has a huge backlog of revenues
that it'll be able to tap into if their Neutron rocket is a success, which by all accounts,
it's sort of like on track to be a success.
Certainly there's demand for it. The success factor, the only sort of question is whether
or not they'll actually be able to make the rocket reusable. And they have a great track
record with their Electron rocket being a great rocket. So Rocket Lab is in a really good position.
So these are sort of like my three largest holdings is Robinhood, Rocket Lab, and Meta. So I'm taking the opportunity of like the
short-term volatility of the markets to add to these positions because I went into this volatility
with a pretty large cash position. And now I'm sort of reducing my cash position as a percentage
of my portfolio and going in on these companies that I really love.
And my horizon is not six months.
It's like, well, these things are going to, the tariff issue and short-term market volatility are going to work themselves out.
If they don't, we're going to be in a lot of trouble as a country anyway.
country anyway, so the market is probably going to be the least of our worries.
So the market is probably going to be the least of our worries.
So as they work themselves out and the market sort of returns to
valuing companies the way they ought to be valued is based on sort of future cash flow
expectations, I think great companies will continue to do really well.
So that's my outlook on it.
And that's why I've added some more meta today.
I appreciate you, Hamid.
We're also, yeah, really quickly, we're in the thick of earnings season, so you can see
his portfolio and then earnings up.
Shout out to that.
Tesla coming up tomorrow, big day.
Shout out to earnings up.
What's up, Logical?
Can I ask Hamid what his thoughts are?
I mean, because, you know, he's bullish meta, which I totally understand.
Obviously, I'm a little concerned about near-term cyclicality concerns,
but you're looking at the long-term, which I totally get.
But any thoughts on really a tough DOJ,
and now they're kind of in the sights of an antitrust ruling potentially?
I didn't really follow the exact news there,
but, I mean, they just won a case against google for that so just wondering your thoughts
i think uh i haven't really uh dived deep into the antitrust um case against meta but i suspect
it's going to be weak because they're sort of going the the rudimentary what of what i know
is that they're going after them for like their Instagram purchase and, you know, their attempted purchase of Snap or something. I mean, like
their position, which is that there's plenty of competition. Just look at TikTok. You know,
two years ago, every analyst, every stock analyst was talking about how Facebook is dead and TikTok
is the future. And basically they were selling,
they were doing sell ratings on Meta.
Every stock analyst was basically giving a sell rating
on Meta two years ago.
And I think their position is much stronger
that there is plenty of competition
and that they're not a monopoly.
So if they're not a monopoly,
I think it would be really hard to use monopoly law
to try to sort of break them up.
And in the worst case scenario that a breakup does happen,
that's not necessarily bad for shareholders.
You know, that could potentially actually increase
shareholder value in the short term.
What I would really be disappointed about
is that then you have multiple companies,
possibly three,
that can't all be run by Mark Zuckerberg, right?
I like Meta because of the founder CEO aspect of it as well.
By the way, MongoDB stock is down 3% in after hours right now.
Their interim CFO just left.
So, not only did
their CFO had previously left,
and the person they put in to take
over in the meantime when they found a new CFO
just left. I haven't seen that one
too many times.
That's a terrible look.
Let's go over to Blake.
Blake, how are you doing today?
It's been a space so far.
It's been a week and a day in the market.
How are you doing?
You got anything you want to add to the conversation?
Blake?
Balake?
Balake. Itake. Balake.
It's a great skit.
I guess we're going right over to Stock Talk.
Mr. Talk.
I saw you post that.
I think we might have some interesting thoughts here.
I saw you post that tweet that this is not an opinion,
that this is a fact.
You've been active over the last little bit.
I also saw you on the Investing with the Boys show, so shout out to that.
Do you guys want more Stock Talk content coming up after this?
Yeah, that was fun.
It's always good to chat with Logical and Shy.
What's up?
Not a ton of new opinions for me here.
I've been taking some stabs here and there.
I took some stabs on some things on Friday,
stopped out of a couple of them today, took pretty minor losses on those in the morning.
Outside of that, I didn't really do anything. There were a couple of reports this morning that
I liked, all things being equal, in a flat to maybe slightly down market, I might have taken
some stabs at some of those catalysts. But because of the way that we saw the pre-market action this morning,
I just didn't see a lot of opportunity from a technical standpoint
to take stabs at those.
So, sad on my hands today.
You know, obviously people are just going to continue to talk about the tariff stuff,
I'm just going to continue to talk about the tariff stuff, and I know that's what most people want to talk about.
and I know that's what most people want to talk about.
At this point, I don't know where the resolution is going to be.
I was hoping we'd get some kind of deals this week.
It doesn't seem like that's going to be the case.
I actually saw the comments from Japan's finance minister this morning, and those really worried me.
He said basically, I'm summarizing his comments here, but he said that after their preliminary
meeting with the United States, that he's concerned that there may not be as much middle
ground as they thought there was.
And I'm sort of cross applying that thinking to a lot of other countries that are in the
middle of negotiations.
And, you know, the United States has a lot of leverage here to where we can play bully ball a little bit.
But it doesn't mean that other nations are just going to, you know, immediately fall in line without any sort of backlash or use of leverage of their own.
And the amount of leverage that our counterparties have varies, obviously, like, you know, between Japan, South Korea and China, the points of leverage are dramatically different.
But it's a concern to me that it doesn't seem like we have our foot in the door in the way that maybe I thought we did two weeks ago.
And I thought that implementing these tariffs, even though I wasn't in favor of the rollout at all, I thought at least maybe the implementation of the tariffs, the go-ahead that we got on April 2nd, even with the 90-day pause, would be enough to create a sense of urgency that would lead to negotiations
and would lead to trade deals. That doesn't seem to be the case so far. I know a lot of people are
going to refer to these anecdotal media reports where we're getting headlines being dropped,
the deals are close,, countries are calling.
I mean, I think that's all fine and dandy if it's true.
I mean, I'll give them the benefit of the doubt and say it's true that countries are calling.
You know, the lag between countries ringing the White House phone and actually signing a deal, my worry is that could be a very long leg if the first deal takes a full quarter to get done
which isn't ridiculous to imagine right first deal takes three or four months to get done
then when do the others come down the pipeline and when does the elephant in the room get addressed
in in the form of china i don't know you know if it's going to take two months, three months to get a deal
done with Japan, you know, maybe you negotiate with South Korea at the same time. Although I
don't know what points of negotiation we're using. JD Vance in India right now.
Basant is talking to a handful of nations. Ludnik is talking to a handful of nations.
There doesn't seem to be a tremendous amount of organization, you know, or any sort of vanguard approach where there's a
handful of designated negotiators. It just seems members of the administration, anybody, you know,
the Commerce Secretary, the Treasury Secretary, the Vice President are just scrambling to try to get
deals done, I think both from a PR standpoint,
but also to try to reassure markets.
And it's not working very well, obviously.
Markets continue to head lower.
I think there was a little bit of optimism
headed into the weekend that a deal would get done.
I think that was part of what compounded the selling today.
The fact that we saw really no positive news.
So yeah, I'm genuinely worried.
I mean, I have been worried, obviously, for weeks and weeks, but I genuinely remain worried about the idea that there may not be a point of immediate resolution here. In fact, there may not be a point
of resolution for months, which means the market could continue to trade this way. But more
importantly than just the market, it's probably a very, very, very ominous signal for the economy.
I don't know what the cushion is here, but a couple more months of this, a couple more months of this sort of uh umbrella over business confidence and you
know consumer activity and you will get a recession it won't just be here it'll be everywhere
and then i mean you know all bets are off all outlook bets are off projection bets are off
forward expectation bets are off i think somebody mentioned this earlier i don't know if it was hamid or somebody else but somebody mentioned uh
companies being valued on a forward basis like that sort of valuation framework falls apart if
you get a recession in the back end of the year or you know maybe even sooner uh that framework
would fall apart and a lot of those companies that people think are cheap on a forward basis
are going to get dumped even further.
I talked about this a little bit on the podcast with Modical and Shy
that I did with them.
But I talked about the idea of everybody being so honed in on forward multiples
when we're in a bull market, which makes sense.
And we're usually in a bull market.
So I'm not knocking that philosophy. We're usually in a bull market, which makes sense. And we're usually in a bull market. So I'm not knocking that philosophy. We're usually in a bull market. And when we are in a bull
market, you can use that sort of valuation methodology and you can think about stocks
on a forward basis and probably do pretty okay. I think in markets like this, it becomes a lot
trickier. And I also think that people develop these sort of false false points of reference when it comes to how much stocks are worth you know like six months
ago you know if you told people like the mag 7 we're going to be down as much as they are this
year people would be like oh no no way like you, I'd buy the dip if they're down 15%, forget 35% or 40%.
That's a lot of value destruction.
It's trillions and trillions of dollars
in market capitalization destroyed.
And on the way back up,
a lot of people think these things are just going to,
you're going to close your eyes
and these things are going to revert back
to their multiples from 2024.
That's, I think, a very, a very very very very dangerous line of thinking
um you know i again i'm not being overly pessimist here to the extent that i don't think a bull
market's ever going to happen again of course we're going to go back to a bull market eventually
eventually the selling will be out of the way um and you know markets always recover um
net net you know on an index level but it doesn't mean your individual stocks are going to recover.
And I've seen tweets over the last couple of months all over Twitter with people talking about stocks that, frankly, I don't think have a tremendous amount of staying power.
People who are buying the dip on them every 10% down.
And some of these stocks are going down 10% a day.
Forget about 10% a week.
And people are just perpetually buying the dips on them.
So I'm concerned about those people.
I hope they have enough cash to keep playing that game.
I'm still sitting on plenty and plenty of cash.
I have no rush to deploy it.
Yeah, I don't know when I'll be in a rush to deploy it, honestly.
A couple of weeks ago, I was like, oh, maybe we'll start to build a base here
and begin to rebound and maybe remount the 200A.
And in that kind of scenario where we saw a little bit of technical reconstruction,
I probably would have been more aggressive to deploy cash.
But we haven't seen any semblance of a bounce.
And even in the bounce that we have seen, like last week and the week before where we
got these little flicks of green, we didn't retake anything significant.
Like, you know, on a technical basis, we built no structure back at all.
In fact, we just got rejected off the 9 EMA.
Like, that's not exactly encouraging action.
You get rejected off a declining 9 EMA after, you know, a 12% drawdown in the index.
That's a point where, you know, you need to see that break to the upside.
You need to see it hold.
And we didn't get that.
We got, like, the polar opposite of that action.
Just, you know, sloping short-term moving averages, indexes pushing up into them, no semblance of a bit
above them, you know, constant selling, multiple compression, left, right, and center, very,
very, very few spots of relative strength. You know, Logical brought up a handful of biotech
names. There have been a handful of the mid-cap defense names I've talked about,
handful of mineral names. Outside of that, I mean, good luck finding relative strength in this market. And, you know, that makes it even harder as a trader. So, you know,
another thing I've adjusted is sort of my leash on long positions. You know, I have taken a few
trades here and there, a few that have worked out. I'm not sitting on those, you know, I'm not,
yeah, in a bull market, when I pick up some of those trades that
are based out nicely and they move for me quickly, seven or 8% of the upside, I'm not selling there
because base breakouts at a bull market, you know, they tend to do well, you know, you can
build back into them as they pull back into their nine and 21 EMAs. That's how you can play the play
stocks at a bull market. In this kind That's how you can play the play stocks at
a bull market. In this kind of market, you cannot play stocks that way. You know, you get that seven
or 8% move off the base, you take it. And so that's, that's been a little bit of a different
adjustment for me as well, is much shorter leash on my profit taking. But you know, last last couple
of years, I've been very, very liberal with letting my plays run.
And obviously, it's been a very easy market, 23 and 24.
You can do that.
This market, I don't think you can as a trader, of course.
I know investors have a very different lens here.
But I mean, my earlier comments, relevant to investors as well, I think.
Not everyone has unlimited cash.
I know a lot of investors who aren't traders at all, who don't, you know, concern themselves
with the day-to-day throws in the market too much.
But, you know, they were buying the dip a couple of weeks ago, and some of them were
out of cash.
You know, now they're sitting there on positions that are just going down more and more and
more.
And look, if they have the stomach for it, you know, if you have the stomach to buy hundreds
of thousands of dollars worth of stocks and see them go down 20, 30, 40 percent.
Great.
You know, you probably have this.
You're probably fit to be an individual stock investor if you have the stomach for that.
If you don't have the stomach for that, you should probably stop doing it.
And stop reading these buzz quotes on Twitter about buying when there's blood in the streets and feeling
like you're obligated to do that and then not being able to stomach the drawdown. If you can't
stomach the drawdown, you shouldn't be dip buying, period, especially in the markets environments
like this. So decide who you are, decide where your psychological tolerance is, what level that's at, and then go from there. But I am really worried about just everything that's going on policy-wise
and the fact that, like, there doesn't seem to be any point of sobriety here.
Trump seems to be just gung-ho, dying on this hill.
I don't know why.
Like, his tweets this weekend were, in my view, very unnecessary.
Like, we get it.
You know, we get the tariff thing. He just keeps reiterating the same thing.
It's concerning. Investors are just showing a tremendous lack of a,
lack of confidence in everything American. You know, I tweeted this earlier.
But it's the first time since 1981 that on a one month basis, we have cross-asset selling in American assets.
So that's S&P 500 down 10%, dollar index down 5%,
U.S. 10-year yield up at least 10 basis points.
The combination of those three things has not happened on a one-month basis since 1981.
That's 44 years.
So you could phrase that another way and say investors are losing confidence in America on a short-term basis.
Now, is that going to last?
I would bet not.
I mean, we're still the most powerful nation in the world.
We're still the most powerful military in the world.
We still have the most strategic influence of any nation in the world.
So I don't think it'll last.
But is it concerning?
Fuck yeah, it's concerning. I mean,
why wouldn't that concern anyone? You know, you're seeing everything be sold, you know,
U.S. debt, U.S. stocks, U.S. dollar. Do you want to see that? I mean, I don't know. I don't know
any Americans that liked that scenario, you know, and then you have people that are saying, well,
it's all part of the plan. This is a reorganization.
I don't know. I don't know what sort of delusion those people are under, but
I don't know any kind of good plan that has this consequence. So yeah, things just don't look great.
I don't see a ton of reasons to be optimistic about anything.
I'm not deploying my cash in any sort of significant way, taking a few stabs here and there with tight stops where they present themselves, but that's about it. And until
conditions dramatically change, I don't think my opinion on that's going to change either. And by
conditions dramatically changing, I mean a serious reversal in the indexes, which would obviously take some sort of news at this point, I imagine.
And, you know, some sort of technical reconstruction on the S&P 500.
That needs to at least begin to happen.
We haven't even seen the start of a technical reconstruction on the S&P 500.
on the S&P 500. And more importantly than that, maybe a deal with China being done,
And more importantly than that, maybe a deal with China being done.
because I think these other deals, like the Japan deal, the South Korea deal, whatever,
if those deals even do get done, I think any sort of bounce produced off that is going to be a
sellable bounce. Because I think what the market really cares about is China. You know, China and the United States make up 43, 44% of global GDP. So like, you can't just
you can't just brush off that scenario and be like, Oh, well, we got to deal with Japan done.
So like everyone go back and buy the S&P 500 again. I don't think that's gonna happen. I think
you probably see a pretty aggressive rally on the back of the first few deals. And I think that rally gets sold
if a China deal doesn't get done. That's my baseline opinion where we stand right now. And
obviously that's speculation, but I think that that would make sense if it played out that way.
So yeah, I just really care about the China deal.
Stock talk. What do you think that the probability of a China deal being done in the next,
let's say, month or two is if you
asked me two weeks ago i would have said 80 if you asked me now i would say like 50 50 and if it
does get and if a deal does get done do you see the market sort of rebounding yeah i would buy
stocks immediate like i would deploy my cash immediately if a China deal was done.
Okay.
Yeah.
So I mean, for, yeah, I think if a deal gets done, it'll almost be, uh, unless you're like quick to react instantly or whatever.
I mean, like I think very few people are in that boat.
You would chase it.
Okay.
Yes.
Yeah.
And I mean, look, right.
Are you going to be able to catch the absolute bottom in a market like this? My answer to that is no. And so I'd rather chase a real reversal catalyst than I would buy without any catalyst at all, is my line of thinking here. point about like uh inflation when i mean like i think we were having some of these debates about two years ago around inflation and and uh you did the chasing and i think your portfolio did
incredibly well which uh kudos to you for you know having like uh been out during the time
inflation was high and then like you started to get in pretty heavily as inflation start numbers
started proving themselves but you know the way I view it is
that if you were sort of passive, if you're not constantly sort of monitoring the market and the
news and all that stuff, there are great companies to be had at really good prices today. And by the
way, despite the fact that companies like Palantir are great companies. They post quarter after quarter of amazing results.
A company like Palantir, I wouldn't say is a great price. So if a company like Palantir
increases its revenues by 400% over the next couple of years, which is a pretty substantial
increase, it would still be trading at 20 times revenues, which is still way higher than the vast majority of tech companies that
are growing fast. So you have to also look at the valuations of these companies. But companies that
are in really good position, they're flushed with cash, they're growing year after year,
and they're on this sort of trajectory of like fairly substantial growth. And all of a sudden their prices are like 20, 30, 40 percent lower than their highs or lower than they were in the past year.
I think some of those make great long term investments and can be can be invested in without sort of like this day to day following of the news and and making sure that you sort of go in the moment
a deal is made, right? Like that's going to be, I think, tough for us to, or for a lot of investors
to sort of like stay on top of. Yeah, of course, it's been difficult to stay on top of. And we
have the privilege of, you know, watching markets every day, which gives us a little bit of a
granular advantage, especially on the micro, you know, on an individual stock basis. And I invest and trade individual stocks. So,
you know, it's a little bit of a different game for people that might be in the S&P 500 only or
in indexes only. But, you know, what I will say is I take a little bit of a different approach
when it comes to like buying the fear, if you will. I think that's like an overused moniker
and people really don't know how to apply it,
technically speaking.
They just buy every time, like the indexes are red
and they think that like that's a good approach.
And like, look, net net, if you never sell your stocks
and you buy really, really, really high quality names,
which that in and of itself is a debate, right?
Like a lot of people saying that like stocks
are at good prices.
I think that depends on which stock you're talking about.
But, you know, for people that have that mentality,
I think the issue with that in markets like this is markets, you know,
can chop around for a long time and individual stocks can go much,
much lower than you think they can.
And so my philosophy, and this has always worked for me,
and so I'm not going to change it,
is I prefer to buy the inflection back to the upside.
I prefer to deploy cash when we're back in an uptrend than I do when the markets are in a downtrend.
Now, does that mean that I get the best prices?
No, I do not get the best prices.
But it still works out pretty well.
I did that last year.
I did that the year before.
I did that at the end of 2022. When I feel like there is a point where stocks are reversing and
I see upside and I see technical reconstruction and I see volume and the narrative is improving
in the backdrop, that's when I want to deploy cash. Because I think on the flip side,
this idea of buying a falling knife or buying the dip because the prices seem compelling,
I'd make the argument that the prices only seem compelling on a relative basis. There's a lot of recency bias informing the opinions that stocks are cheap, in my opinion. Keep in mind, a lot of
stocks have tripled, quadrupled in the last two years. So them being down 30%, is that a compelling buy?
I mean, I don't know.
It just depends on the stock.
And my philosophy is, you know, you can burn a lot of cash and waste a lot of opportunity
costs just indefinitely buying the dip, regardless of you're an investor or a trader.
You know, I haven't sold any of my investment stocks that I've owned for multiple
years. I haven't sold any of them during the sell off, right? I've hedged aggressively.
I found some opportunities outside of my core basket, like the aerospace and defense names
that I've talked about, you know, like a handful of international exposures that I've talked about,
handful of US border plays that I've talked about. There are these small, specific industry-specific
opportunities to the long side that have been working. But yeah, I don't sell my long-term
stocks, my long-term holdings when the markets are volatile. So I wouldn't say people should
do that either. But I think deployment of cash is an entirely different conversation.
And the capital allocation is an entirely different conversation. And different people
do it differently. I'm not saying people should do it the way I do it. I'm just explaining
why I do it that way. Um, I feel like I can put more size into my buys when I'm confident in the
direction of the market and more confident in the macro backdrop. And I'm not confident in either
right now, which is why I just don't want to deploy cash. You know, a couple of weeks ago,
everyone was asking me, are you buying the dip? I was like, it took a couple of nipples, but no, I'm not deploying much of my cash.
Evan asked me that question three weeks ago, four weeks ago.
I had the same answer.
So I have not been buying the dip on the way down here.
And I'm not going to until we have significant changes in what is driving markets down,
which is, in my opinion, huge mistakes being made with international trade.
And I think the global economy is scared.
I think you're seeing it being reflected in multiple, pretty much all U.S. asset classes.
And you're seeing it being reflected in a lot of international markets, too.
So, yeah, I'm worried and I'm not buying anything.
Monitive, Wolfie, what's up?
Both your hands are up. I don't know whose hand was up first, but... We haven't heard from Monitive, Wolfie, what's up? Both your hands are up.
I don't know whose hand was up first.
We haven't heard from Monitive on this basis yet.
All right, go for it.
Wolfie was before me, well before me.
Truthfully, Wolfie will cut in.
The Monitive will not.
So we're going to Monitive.
Your turn, your mic.
Boom.
The notion that even a deal with china means you know
the market has completely changed uh you know reverse direction uh sustainably is still a
problem we're still talking in almost every statement the one thing consistent that trump
has said is that there will be a reminder tariff that's not a good thing it is not priced in okay we we are pricing we are trying to figure
out whether there's going to be a deal or not that's a bigger question obviously but what shape
the deal comes in and when it comes in is just as important because the longer you drag
this out the longer you've lost the you know the this year already you know the plans will have to
be redone because you're not going to make those numbers whatever those numbers are you have to
pull them down the the having reminder tariffs and we've, I mean, we talk about tech stocks here. There has not even
been a wit of conversation about what the other countries are bringing into the table on services
surplus that US has. You can bet that it's on the table. We've not even started considering
possibilities of those things. So I think the shape of the deal is far more important than you know whether a deal
is done or not i think that bar is very low i think we need to understand what the deal gets done
and how it's going to impact the rest of the year we we're very long in the tooth in this
in this expansion cycle and we were already you you know, way overextended and turning down slowly.
We've just accelerated that, you know, many times over and, you know, just signing a few deals
might not put a stop to that acceleration to the downside. I've been calling this out for a long time. Joel's data is really, really stale.
It's of zero value.
The number of active job hirings is far more important than number of job postings.
There might be a million jobs posted, but barely a tiny fraction of that is being hired against today or you know in the last better part of six eight
months there's been no active hiring except for very targeted roles or to replace you know somebody
that left you know places like that there are a few exceptions of course but but the point is
we are we are facing a structural slowdown that's just an effect of having had a very long expansion.
I don't think we have revised the...
I don't think the market has revised the multiple down to account for what this new normal would be
and whether that new normal would be far smaller than, you know, the previous normal we had.
By the way, I'm seeing some closed statistics.
Every major index is now down 10% so far this year.
I want to ask a monitor. Yeah, I mean, I agree with kind of that thought is like,
we haven't even thought about reciprocal tariffs
on digital services what happens in that scenario i mean i don't know if there's a
there's a number low enough on the smp if that happens there isn't i mean we we have made the
mistake of over allocating taken to s and p so forget the indexes. I mean, there isn't a number low enough to account
for that. Now, these are still going to be profitable, but your margins are different.
Your growth rates are different. So, you know, the valuation number you put against all of those
has to be rethought of. And that's my point. We are still talking in terms of recovering what we have, the model we have today. We're not
talking in terms of having to build a new model. And that is the crisis. If we have to revisit a
new valuation model across the board, something different for each sector, then we're not even
at the beginning of this mess. We're just barely even understanding the mess.
How would digital services tariffs even look?
Because we export way more than the whole world, right?
There would be a tax.
There would just be a tax.
There would just be a tax.
There would just implement a tax on it.
I mean, I think the EU does have digital services tax
on some of our companies, or it's the UK one of the two.
I mean, it's been done before,
but if they got really ratcheted up,
it would be a pretty good, I would say a bigger problem.
Feel free to keep going. million or a few billion dollars. You're seeing those announcements almost on a daily basis now.
So the impact is already here and the urgency is pretty dire at this point.
If we don't close this quickly and revert back to what we had without anything new that
changes the game, this year's earnings are shot.
That's how I see it.
What's up, Wolfie?
I mean,
Mali basically spoke to a lot of what I was going to say.
I think we're in the same camp there.
On the back of it,
there's also just a,
well,
first I'm going to say one other thing.
So first and foremost, when Stock Talk was talking about deals with China or deals with Japan or like the deals with with Korea are not the ones that are interested in. You have, you know, some videos of our allies in Japan coming out saying, you know, pleading with their prime minister, we don't want to be extorted.
Right. So I think that's a that's a real issue. news outlets reporting that Japanese officials are saying they would like to make a deal,
but they can't get actual terms of what the deal would look like. So when we start to,
in my opinion, when we start to think about what a deal could possibly look like,
like these are real things that we have to consider and whether or not we're actually going to get what we want
in a short-term basis. And then the effects of those deals, Manu spoke to some of those effects,
but the primary effect that I look at, take a restructuring out of it, right? The primary
effect is going to be inflation. I mean, Trump currently, I mean, even if it's short-term inflation, because some people are going to argue
and say, oh, tariff is just a one-off and then it'll be cool, whatever. But just on a short-term
basis, you're going to have inflation. And Trump's already publicly criticizing Powell,
already calling him a loser. And, you know, Powell, we spoke about it last week when it was like a light day in here. But Powell basically is, you know, putting his flag in the ground saying like, hey, you're not going to ruin my reputation because you can't, you guys can't get it together. Right. And so I think that combative issues down the pike and, you know,
outside of, outside of just having the popcorn entertainment factor of that, um, you know,
there's real consequences with like the fed stool mandate. Uh, and I think that beyond that,
that there's like a real Trump premium,
I guess you could say,
on how these things are going to unfold in trade.
And I think like just from an international standpoint,
people are viewing that as, you know,
a Trump risk premium,
not like a premium to the market,
like a Trump risk premium.
And I think people are viewing that as like you know a a a dampening in u.s quality because of how some of these things are playing out and i think you know outside of everything that monid
have said that's like the other shoe if you're just trying to price, you know, how things can play out for the rest of the year.
I think once that happens, I think like from a risk asset standpoint, emphasis on risk, a lot of the risk that people, a lot of the things that people viewed as safety trades are actually crowded trades.
And those crowded trades will have to be de-risked if we get to situations like that.
Now, could cooler heads
prevail and then they just like back off the tariffs, call a win somewhere? Sure. But I think
that the more time that goes on without even just a baseline definition of what a quote unquote
deal could look like, the less realistic that optimism actually is. So I just kind of wanted
to speak to that. But most of the other things that,
most of the other things that I was going to touch on,
not enough touch done.
So I guess we have the same sources.
My favorite source is sources for anyone who doesn't know.
Good times.
Mr. Kevin Green, you joined a little bit into that conversation there, but anything that you're watching if we're just prompting you in general?
You know, I mean, obviously there's a lot that's going on right now.
So I think one thing, and it's not like an I told you so, but I think it's really important, right? Like past V bottoms were also supported by injections of liquidity in the market, either monetary or fiscal policy type of liquidity, right?
That's really what drives V bottoms.
So I don't think a V bottom this time around is something that market participants should be expecting by any stretch of the imagination.
And then any type of trade deal, you got to look into the terms.
I think that's really key.
Like when you get the headline announcement, yes, we're probably going to see a pop, but
you got to see exactly what's going to be those terms.
I want to get a little bit concerned about it.
If we have like any type of non-binding agreements here, that kind of will tell you that a couple
of things.
One, the administration was not able to make a concrete trade deal
and are really trying to save face.
And then two, a lot of those deals probably won't come to fruition
like we've seen in the past in Trump 1.0.
So I think that's a particular risk.
If you're a bear, though, what you need to have is continued negative news.
And one of the things is actually positive.
So if you're a bear, you want to see the labor market still, at least the statistics itself, still stay intact, at least for the next
month or so. Once you start seeing that crack, it's going to give the Fed an ample amount of
ammo to try to cut rates, which I don't think is going to be very effective. But I think that's
going to be your first signal from the fed um and then maybe
some conversation around uh kiwi which which nobody wants to do but that that has to be on the
table so that that's a thing for the bears here if you kind of go to the past what we usually do see
and one thing that's kind of annoyed me last couple of you know let's say a month or so
is uh people calling capitulation events um usually
like you can't really say okay here's when everybody capitulated that's usually not how
it happens right it's usually when they are there is actual blood in the streets and and people are
having an oh type of moment excuse my language so could we have had a capitulation event what two
weeks ago it could be the case but what you really want to see from a technical standpoint is
actually a comeback and check back moment.
If you're looking at the S&P 500, and this week will be actually fairly key, but you
do not want to go and close below 49.60, let's call it 49.65.
That'll give you a clear indication, are you actually still seeing some buyers actually
stepping at those lower levels, or is this going to fade?
Technically, I still think that we have a little bit more uh of a way down at least uh down to around that 46 i could say 46 80 i've been saying 46 65 but the moving average continues to change
so i'm going to change with it usually also with bottoms that you see not v bottom recoveries but
even when you see v bottom recoveries that first move move above the oversold level for the RSI, that first cross is usually not the one that is the
bottom, right? We come back and at least check that oversold level. So we're doing that right now.
So if you want a glimmer of hope and you do believe that a lot of this stuff is priced in,
you want us to come down just a little bit more. You wanna see some buyers stepping on large volume.
That'll be one thing.
I think we are in a moment right now,
is this a 2020 or is this a,
is this like a COVID recovery, which I don't think it is,
just based on the things that Manon talked about, right?
It's kind of a restructuring,
or are we seeing something
that's a little bit more drawn out, right?
If you're looking more at the 2022 type of scenario.
And I don't think, I don't know yet.
I think it's going to be the next couple of weeks is going to be the telltale sign.
For me, once I see the 20-week moving average crossing below the 50-week moving average,
if you go back in history, that's usually the last slide of the cycle
when you're looking at the equity market
and then coming down and testing the 200-week moving average,
once again, sitting at around 4689. So that's one thing. Pockets of strength,
though, let's see some setups because we can talk about the gloom and doom, but what could you do
to put about dollars to work? So if you look at dollar general, bring up the weekly chart,
you bring up a daily chart, it was up about 2.7% here today, it has been trying to base out. Now,
this one has been a fake out a lot,
but when you're kind of looking at valuations and having that conversation, it's something to kind
of keep your eye out on. It looks like MACD is about to cross that zero line to the upside here.
Low beta, and it actually, in some sense, actually has negative beta of the S&P 500. Does it have
exposure to tariffs? It does. But when you look at some of these companies now, especially the
retailers, a lot of the tariff impact, I believe, some of it has already been kind of priced in and what's going to happen and what are we already seeing happen.
So when you're seeing a volume of shipping that's taking place, especially when you're looking at the West Coast ports and then what's being transited out of China, they are decreasing at a very rapid pace.
So what is that going to include or entail,
right? We're going to have a drop in inventory that can also lead to prices being a little bit
more sticky, but these companies are going to be able to pass that on. And if we do have a regime
or an environment or a new trend where we have this onshoring, that's not going to help anybody
over the next two years, three years, even five years, in my opinion, just because of the capex span that's going to take.
But you got to look at these companies that have already gotten hit just completely
and ravaged just completely, but also still have pricing power. And eventually they're going to
eat some of this on the margins. But when you look at margins, when you have margin
cuts across the board that's putting pressure down, it kind of has a little bit more of an equilibrium or normalization. And you're going to see this in every single sector,
right? It's not like across the board. Auto's going to have its own and it's going to have to
be able to readjust. You're going to see the same thing when it comes to consumer staple companies.
And we have a couple of them reporting here this week. You're going to see the same thing when it
comes to financials. Yes, they had good earnings, but Outlook was a little bit dicey.
When you're looking at airlines, they're going to have the same thing.
But when you start having this re-rating of margin, that'll kind of give you a little bit more of a level set.
And so I'm kind of looking at DG, Dollar Tree as well.
They're doing that spinoff with Family Dollar.
It's hitting the 50-week moving average.
That could be an area of resistance but once again a company
that if you look at these these stocks i mean this dollar tree has been basing out since september of
last year uh you know pretty much dollar general doing for the most part the same um targets another
one where i don't know if the yield is going to be uh sustainable it's trading what around seven
percent dividend yield but it's something that says, okay,
today, a day like today, it's up three quarters of a percent. Why? Last week,
was it down? It was, but not really aggressively a week before that. If you look at the weeklies,
there's a battle that is taking place for a lot of these names. Another one that I brought up a couple of weeks ago, ADM, Archer Daniel Midland,
right? So they have grain exposure. They've had some issues when it comes to their balance sheet grains, obviously a lot of margin pressure to the downside there, but they're one of the biggest
movers of protein and nutrition here in the United States. Look at that stock over the last three
weeks, right? Hitting any key area of resistance, but something to look out for. I think Dow Chemical,
another one paying, I think, a 10% div, probably not sustainable, but something to just keep your
eye out on. But if you pull up these companies here on a day that we were down 3%, 3.5%,
they're either flat or they actually advanced. So that's what I'm kind of looking for. Low beta
or even negative beta stocks that have gotten just completely destroyed
and might be already re-rating.
I know we only have a couple more minutes here.
S&P 500 right now is trading at an 18.5 or multiple
if you go by fact set.
With Monitive, that probably hasn't re-rated too much.
I mean, what, the earnings multiple for 2025 slash 2026
was sitting at around 272 on average or the mean. Right now, I think it's sitting at
around 262, 263. If you get a little bit more aggressive and take another 10% haircut off of
that and you throw a 19, 19.5% multiple, you're talking about 4,600 on the S&P 500. Once again,
relatively close to that 200 day or 200 week moving average, or if you're
looking at the 50 month moving average. So I think a lot of the damage has been done. There are some
wild cards there. So I definitely want to be mindful of that. We are in some uncharted
territories with the Jerome Powell thing. I think that is something that's going to be really,
really negative. But if you're kind of looking at for the bears, bears want actually labor to hold up for right now.
They want inflation not even to rise, but just to remain sticky to make it really hard and difficult for the Fed to cut.
And then if you're a bull, unfortunately, bad news is going to be good news. And I mean, you really want labor to really accelerate to the upside as far as job losses,
literally over the next, unfortunately, the next six weeks or so.
The dollar is obviously moving lower here.
Yes, is there going to be some international pressure there?
there? Is there a little bit of a flight out of the dollar? I believe so. I don't think that's
Is there a little bit of a flight out of the dollar?
I believe so.
I don't think that's the full story, though.
the full story though. A lot of these currencies have also been seeing a lot of headwinds with
the dollar for the last couple of years. What I get concerned about is the rate of change for
the dollar. So 98 on the dollar index, it really doesn't mean anything to you. But if you were
talking about over the last four weeks or so, seeing what, a 15% drop or so, what do we got?
So seeing a 15% drop or so, what do we got?
Sorry, we have about a 7% drop.
That's the velocity that you don't want to see.
And you want to be able to hold that 95 level.
It just depends on how quickly we're doing that.
Dollar down yields up is not a great environment.
Dollar down yields up and gold ripping the way it is,
has like late 70s written all over.
And if you go back in history, the stagnationary environment, that's not a good thing either.
So I still think you just got to be tactical, right?
Like find pockets of opportunity.
And what are you willing to be able to hold here?
Could we go down lower?
I do believe so.
I've been saying that for a very long time here.
But it just depends on what your outlook is. Is this going to be a major drawdown 2008 type of scenario, you know,
internet bust type of scenario where we have a year, year and a half to try to reclaim all-time
highs? Or do we have a, I don't even call this a traditional pullback, but is this going to be one of those hit the 50-month moving average on the S&P 500,
bounce, come back, recheck, bounce higher? More oftentimes than not, that's usually the scenario.
And so I think that we're more of the way there to our potential low than we are at the start of one,
but you definitely need to have at least something back out as far as the news
flow. So that's kind of what I'm, I'm looking at, uh, for right now.
Um, and I'll, I'll, I'll kick it back. I appreciate you guys having me on.
We do have a pretty hard cutoff coming up here, uh, right at the top of the hour.
I'm on a table. I'll give you a second to get the last thought in here.
I'm going to go start the spaces, whatever, in a second.
But we do have a stock pitch for the week, start trace space,
starting on the Wolf account any second here.
Manitav, let's get the final word in now.
I'll be really quick.
So, Kevin, one of the things that I worry about is whether you look at Faxit
or LSEG models, we're still
modeling, you know, 10% growth every quarter from here on out for the rest of the year and
anywhere close to 4% revenue growth. All of those things have to start to be questioned at some
point in time. So anyway, we're mostly agreed that there are you know that there's a lot of selling that has
been done there's a lot of damage that has already been done where we go from here is still a
function of how far how much more damage we want to do that's it right not not on the markets but
i mean on the on the economic situation if if if we stop digging now we could get out of this
on the economic situation.
If we stop digging now, we could get out of this,
you know, in some reasonable fashion.
If we keep digging further and making it worse, then all bets are off.
I agree.
I know you have a last thing, but I just want to say the price action
in gold today, especially when you look at the GLD, does appear like we are going
to be in a blow off top type of scenario.
So just be mindful of that decent little trade to the upside.
But I would just be, you know,
keep your eye out, because any
type of good news probably will
dramatically re-rate the
gold of the downside there, so I appreciate you
having me on, Evan. I know that you guys got to go.
Thank you. I really appreciate
you all. Anytime we get the chance to have these speakers
on here, it's just a great conversation, so make sure you're
following all of the speakers up here.
If you're following a couple of them, then you'll see this next Spaces conversation
we have coming up here. But yeah, appreciate everyone. Fantastic
conversations. We'll be back same time, same place, 3 p.m. Eastern. We go live
every single Monday through Thursday, 3 to 5 p.m. Eastern, at least on Stocks on Spaces.
A lot of great stuff going on, and we appreciate everyone. So yeah,
I'll stop talking here so you can open up the next one.
Yeah.
Great conversation as always.
We'll be live here tomorrow for Tesla earnings.
Thanks Evan for running it around stock talk for co-hosting.
Always make sure you follow these wonderful panelists that come up here each
and every day.
And I'm going to open up that stock picks for the week show over on the
Wolf account right now. Thank you.
