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MICROSOFT $MSFT AND $META AND $HOOD LIVE EARNINGS
Recorded: April 30, 2025 Duration: 2:05:18Space Recording
Short Summary
Major tech earnings reports from Microsoft, Meta, and Robinhood are set to influence market dynamics, with trends indicating a potential growth phase for crypto assets as investor confidence rises amidst strategic partnerships and innovative developments.
Full Transcription
Thank you. Good afternoon, everyone. Happy Wednesday. April the 30th. It is time for stocks on space. It is
the last day of the month. I just realized that actually right now when I looked at my calendar.
Yeah, look around the market,
what is going on? A lot of things, a lot of news throughout the market today. Again,
what else is new, right? But welcome in everyone. Evan and some others are out of pocket today.
We'll see if they're able to get loose for a few minutes to show up. But either way,
we have a great panel lined up as always.
We'll talk through some of the stuff
and we have some massive earnings today.
Microsoft will report this afternoon at 4.05.
Meta as well, numbers expected at 4.05.
We also have Robinhood and Qualcomm.
There's some other names on here, of course.
eBay, I don't know what else everyone else is watching on here.
I'm sure somebody's probably watching.
Maybe Aflac and Allstate, maybe some insurance companies, public storage.
I don't know.
Several things on the docket for today, but obviously most eyes on Mag7 names, Microsoft and Meta.
And of course, Robinhood, another fan favorite on here on these spaces.
And then Qualcomm., we got some chips in
there involved as well. So that'll be interesting. And looking around the market, where are we at?
We've gone a long way down and come back a decent amount, more than halfway back from
yesterday's highs to where we bottomed out this morning, a vicious bounce that we had this morning.
SPY currently down three quarters of a percent, $4, trading right at $5.50.
QQQ right at this $4.72 level, down about $3.60 from yesterday's close.
Dow continues to be a little bit stronger than most, just down about half a percent.
All of your big tech names are red today.
Noticeably, NVIDIA has clawed back after that SMCI port
that we saw come out yesterday.
NVIDIA kind of started out much weaker than everything else
and actually recovered, only down 1.3%.
Tesla, probably our weakest link today in tech, down 4%.
Amazon also down 2.8%.
But some of these other names are coming back basically to break even.
You've got essentially a break even Apple, Broadcom very close to break even, Microsoft
down just under a percent, and Meta down 2.3, both of those ahead of their earnings reports.
And yeah, we also had some news coming out. There was a Chinese state-run source,
news source that basically reported just a little bit ago that there were talks happening.
Of course, they framed those as anxious on the U.S.'s part to that side.
But, of course, we heard the back and forth the other day of, well, no one's talking to us from the U.S.
And Trump saying, yes, we did.
And no, we didn't.
And yes, we did.
That kind of thing.
And now we have a Chinese source, though.
I thought that was very interesting. What's evan glad you made it by what's up what's up i got a
crazy day interesting stuff going on you might hear me on an army call later uh i'm looking
forward to it but i uh i haven't paid attention to the stock market as much today i was at the
exchange and i know we were right to start at least. I think we might have turned around a little bit when I left.
I left around 10.45. When did
we start to turn around a little?
That makes sense on my chart.
We bought them at
like 10.05,
10.10, somewhere in there.
I was still there, but I might have left
the floor at that part, so you're welcome, everybody.
I'll never go again.
Yeah, appreciate everyone
that had puts uh overnight definitely appreciate you as well as anybody that faded the knicks last
night including myself i did announce that live on this space yesterday so that worked out um
evan any uh just and i know you were probably away from the market so anything on your mind
uh before i jump around the panel?
No, nothing too much for me. I'm excited for the earnings today. We have Meta, we have Microsoft, Robinhood. I'm excited. Shout out to Perplexity. If you guys didn't know,
you can use that Ask Perplexity bot on Twitter and ask it different questions. So I just commented
down below with some of the biggest news stories from today asking it. So it's talking through that
one a little bit. And I know they're doing some stuff around like the all these numbers and two
so i'm excited to play around with that ask perplexity bot which is uh you can see if you
look in the comment section down below just in general any comments any questions anything you
guys want us to hit on that purple three in the bottom right of your screen feel free to uh
throw anything down there and i'd love to see you guys playing with that bot if you guys
ask the bot first then ask us but um but yeah I'm looking forward to the conversation today
sounds good all right well let's uh start jumping around the panel and uh see what everyone thinks
about any of the well the price action today uh the news obviously uh I think several of you I
know me and stock talk we're still on here kind of talking with Monitive, but when that SMCI news came out yesterday.
But we'll see what everyone thinks about things in the market in general.
And then, of course, we'll focus on some of these earnings a little bit and see if anybody has any thoughts around those options.
Mike, got to hear from you a little bit earlier today.
Always a pleasure.
Great having you on the space again.
What are your thoughts now as we come into this Power Hour on this Wednesday afternoon?
Hey, I'm always good to be back.
You know, this market should have dumped today.
You had bad ADP numbers, you had bad GDP numbers.
Everybody's trying to frame them in a light that they want to at this point,
which it's still bad numbers. It doesn't matter.
You have, you know, companies
pulling guidance left and right, PCE was okay, and the market dipped and for about a half
an hour and then came roaring back and the SMHs went green, AMD went green. This market
is resilient, you know, it's resilient. It's still constructive.
Now, you know, I think a lot of the semis are moving up because we have Meta and Microsoft
reporting tonight, and they want to hear about their CapEx spendings, that they're still
planning on spending $100 million or whatever the numbers are each there.
But this market is extremely resilient.
Palantir is in a world of its own.
This is, what, eight days up in a row.
It's now $7 from the all-time high.
It just keeps grinding itself back. Market overall breadth today is not great. We're still
down on the day. We're still negative, but I mean, the market's come roaring back and it just doesn't
seem to be caring anymore or bothered by things. It just seems to want to go up and it's trying to
shrug this all up. And honestly, I keep saying this, if the administration would just shut up,
the market would probably find a way to move higher on its own.
It's getting more caught up in the gyrations and the contradictions than
anything else. Um, what else can I say here? You know,
spy needs to get above yesterday's high to test the 50 day.
We got two days left of this week. We're not quite to yesterday's high yet.
That would be amazing if we got there into the close. What did I do oh today was a good day i traded es short um off of the adp numbers
created a bunch of tqqq traded some palantir calls tried some tesla puts it didn't work
switched it up and got into some tesla calls they worked And overall, I'm really excited to see what we get tonight.
I mean, you know, the earnings names tonight, Meta, Hood, Microsoft, Qualcomm, you got eBay
in there as well. All names are interesting to me. Tomorrow morning, you have Lily and MasterCard
and Robolex and McDonald's before the opening. And then tomorrow night, Apple and Amazon.
There's a lot coming at us over the next 24 hours.
And, you know, if these big tech earnings are good,
I suspect we're going to try to rip up here and say we don't care about anything.
And, again, my target on the SPY remains that 200-day,
which was up around that 573 area, 572.
It's kind of drifting down 573 area.
And then we'll go from there.
But, I mean, you know, I thought this morning, okay, we're finally going to get a dump and they just turned around they bought it right back up and you know
that's what makes this market difficult they do not want to let it go at this point they
you know it's just not in a hurry to go and i think that's what's frustrating everybody this
action is very difficult you watch things on the one in the five minute candles they love to pop
it up to the highs to close the candle then rip it right back down the next one only to
reverse it back up in your face and that's just a lot of algos here that are
just running here and just trying to it's trying to play with day traders you
have to you have to trade your you have to be faster or change your trading
habits here and just say I'm going I'm gonna have conviction here I'm gonna
sit in this I'm gonna give a chance to work and for me that means I don't touch
the daily options right now I do not touch weekly options for the most part. You know, I go out
at least a week, if not a month and stay there. So overall, yeah, we'll see. Still remaining
bullish tilted. We'll see what we get tonight. Yeah, to your point there, we talked a little
about yesterday, we filled that liberation gap on the S&P yesterday.
We were up six days in a row, essentially.
So it made you kind of feel like coming into today, there was a chance for some profit taking or a pullback.
But the next thing that I was watching is kind of what you said there, Mike.
When we pulled back today, they bought this thing up viciously off of that 541 on spy that that area down there and it it ripped back quick you
know as it was coming up uh from what 10 to almost 11 o'clock 10 to 10 45 basically uh once
evans bad juju wore off the the market was ripping back i i was i thought maybe it would kind of run
out of our shorts would cover out for a little bit there, and then maybe come back in. And, you know, we really didn't see that today.
No, the sellers dried up, and the buyers stepped in.
And, you know, again, maybe they're waiting for the big techs tonight.
Maybe that's it.
But, I mean, even then, earnings have been horrible, and the market hasn't cared.
I mean, Caterpillar today, their earnings were okay.
They offered guidance that was flat
that did not include tariffs so tariffs are are not included in their and they're currently flat
guidance and they were up i mean that just tells you i i don't you know i'm done trying to figure
out this marker from that perspective it just seems to not care about it unless it does
it's very name specific on what they think right, and it's very difficult to tell what's going on.
Yeah, definitely a very interesting market going on here.
Blake, let me come over your direction next and see what thoughts you have around this market on this Wednesday afternoon.
Hey, guys. How are you all doing? speaking to um it's definitely a bit confusing uh when you
when you're looking at like the macro data and how this market continue pushing higher
so i don't want to go i don't want to repeat traveled ground but um you know just looking more broadly this is a huge week in terms of the macro
which is i think actually pretty nice because we can maybe chew on something that's not just
tariff bullshit and he said she said as you guys were noting so um you know today we got a lot of
i mean we it's monthly jobs week so we're getting jolt's adp non-farm payrolls so we're noting. So, you know, today we got a lot of, I mean, it's monthly jobs week, so we're getting
jolts, ADP, non-farm payrolls. So we're going to learn about how the labor market's holding up.
We got our first look at GDP this morning, PCE, it's peak earnings season. So we're finally
learning more about the actual economy. Now, again again we have to remind ourselves that there is a lag
from all of this malaise that is sort of now poisoning the economy to actually how it reads
through we know that sort of gap that's developing between the soft data and the hard data um you
know even earlier this this week something that really grabbed my attention was the report that we got out of, I believe it was the Dallas Fed, which, you know, shares the same warnings that we got from that CEO, you know, hush-hush meeting that was in the White House last week from, I think that was Walmart, Target, Home Depot,
basically warning the administration, look, you know, higher consumer prices are going to be
difficult to avoid. Certain products, you know, might be scarce and might not be on the shelves.
You can see it in the Dallas Fed survey, where basically no matter what category you're looking
at, everything is trending the wrong direction. I think the new inventory or the new orders that shot way negative
was like the big headline grabber.
But you can look really up and down that list,
and it's showing you in real time what is happening in the economy.
But remember, the market's a forward-looking discounting mechanism.
So I feel like this is just really, you know, business as usual in terms
of market recoveries, where you're going to see all these headlines that look horrible. You're
going to see earnings come down, or as again, options Mike was saying, they might not even
provide any guidance at all, or it might not even be very good guidance. And yet the market is still
pushing higher. And I think that's likely because
it's seeing what is going to likely be going on in the next you know six or 12 months and we've already seen that you know this quote detox period may be over as the messaging from the trump
administration is shifting away from this like horribly hawkish tariff policy to you know looking for off ramps we're getting
into you know tax cuts discussions and the deregulation the the animal spirits that were
flowing last november i think are going to start coming more into the frame maybe not this week or
next week or the next month but in the coming months. And then finally, before I kind of hand it over to the group again, I'm just seeing more
and more, at least from the technicals.
I know, again, I'm a CFA.
I like looking more at the fundamentals.
But when you get into these environments where you have these absolute waterfall declines,
I generally, that's where I really lean into the technicals. What is actually going on, not at the market, but all of the underlying different sectors,
equal weight, market weight, relative strength, what is momentum looking like, breadth?
And there have been so many different bottoming singles that are sort of triangulating that
for me, I think we can now call the early April low
the low of the cycle. And I think that probability has continued to grow and grow
just quickly, like things that are coming to mind. There's these breadth thrusts, and I know
there's a whole collection of them. So sort of whatever is your fancy, you can go with that.
The big one that caught everyone's attention, I think, on Thursday of last week was this wide breadth thrust.
But again, it doesn't even matter if it's one or another. It's multiple of them that are firing.
And we know from a bottoming process, when market goes in downtrends, you get that oversold,
you get the failed rally, you get the retest, which we ended
up getting like a week ago Monday. And then you get these thrusts and, you know, classic, these are
kind of happening all in all, you know, together. Number two, the collapse in the VIX. When the VIX
surges above 50, eventually it got to 60, as we know, and it closes above 30. These are bottoming signals. They happened in 2009. They
happened in 2020. Sorry, 2020. So I think when VIX is making these major downside moves lower
and getting to the milestone below 30, it's usually a signal that the end of a major equity
drawdown is there. The percentage of stocks above their 200-day moving average fell below 15,
and it climbs back above 20. Again, a very good bottom. Credit spreads have recovered half of
their widening sentiment, as we know, whether it's the newsletter writers or it's the retail
investor, whatever you're looking at, Michigan consumer sentiment data, it's all, I mean, we're talking historic readings here.
So when I see all of that,
it gives me growing confidence that at this point,
I'm not sure how much worse the news can get.
So it's like, we're past max uncertainty,
we're past max pain.
I don't know what else you could sell on at this point,
unless the data becomes so horribly bad
that the earnings estimates are way, way too high,
which I do understand they are high,
but they've been coming in all year.
so with that I'll yield back to the group
So with that, I'll yield back to the group.
appreciate you Blake great thoughts there
let's go ahead and continue around the panel
a little bit
did I see a Gav Blacksburg jumped in here
we have an appearance from Gav
what's cooking
what's up Gav
how's New York
New York's cool I just posted up a picture actually we had a
really fun time this morning at the New York Stock Exchange myself and a group super cool we got to
be there for the open and then I actually went upstairs afterwards at the New York Stock Exchange
and recorded a full sit-down podcast with Bilal Little, who is the head of ETFs and products
for the New York Stock Exchange. So really cool. I actually, I won't pin that photo up top because
right now there is a Ask Perplexity tweet up top and that is taking precedence. If you haven't
checked that out, go ask Perplexity some questions. Maybe ask it what I was doing at the NYC.
We'll see if it can tell you. But yeah, super cool morning there. You know, as usual, when I go to
the New York Stock Exchange,
the market is red, seems to be the theme. But we did bounce back pretty nice through the latter portion of the day, especially after that initial drop. Right there, Wall Street was always
interesting. Yeah, I mean, honestly, obviously, I was in person today, doing some business,
doing some collaboration. So I didn't deal too much with the market. One of the things that I pointed out in the other space that I've just been looking at was this D SPAC,
Cantor Equity Partners, which is kind of like trying to pull a MSTR type strategy. It's up 21%
today. It was up 40% earlier today, CEP. I thought that one's pretty interesting. It's one that I've
been watching, waiting to see. It's a pretty volatile play right now. I certainly, you know,
keep your eyes on it, but I wouldn't play with too heavy size at the moment. And then hood earnings. I
mean, that's, that's to me, you know, a big one. I run a portfolio on autopilot. That's 35% hood.
There's like 700 grand behind it. So to me, when I look at, at herd earnings, this is a big moment.
You know, the last one was obviously a pretty cool move uh to the upside when we had our last earnings move that was pretty significant and so i'm excited to see what it can
do this time so those are probably the main things that are on my radar right now but yeah fascinating
day on wall street um i'm not a big like new york type person but i like getting in here and having
a good time and you know never to get a little photo shoot in. Yeah, but if somebody on this very space
was able to ask a question to Vlad
during that hood earnings call,
what question should they ask?
Oh, wow, great question.
Yeah, definitely nobody on here
would happen to have that type of access and power
to be able to ask Vlad a question on the earnings call.
Fascinating.
Well, I think that honestly, I was looking through some of the shareholder, what's it called? HQ, they do a
kind of like say.com, but like built, is it built in now to Robinhood with the way that they're
doing it, Evan? Is it because I'm pretty sure they're fairly certain that Robinhood owns say.com.
Oh, okay. Well, that can explain it.
So yeah, I mean, real quick,
I was just looking through these questions,
just trying to see, you know,
what are people looking at?
And there was a couple of questions here.
The number one question that I saw
just based on shares represented,
not necessarily votes,
was when will users be able to invest
in private companies?
And we actually did talk to Vlad about this.
Gosh, I don't remember when,
one of my conversations with him,
and he did mention that this is the way that it's going
and that he sees in not just private companies,
but different types of assets.
They're really trying to become
that full stop shop for investing.
And so I do think that that's gonna hopefully
be something that comes up
and I'd love to hear him give more color to that.
Robinhood doesn't typically,
they'll give like the full details
until they're ready to announce. Like when they announced strategies and cortex and all
this other stuff. Nobody really knew about it until they came out with it. Right. And so they
like to be a bit of surprise. There was the number one question, which was voted on, which was are
their plans issued dividends, which I don't think that there are any plans issued dividends. I think
that that's a pretty quick one that they'll be able to move by. And then the other question there I would just lastly touch on was what is Robinhood doing to
accelerate credit cards and checking accounts to their gold members? And I'm lucky I got a little
bit of insight on this. So everyone, you know, you see a lot of people posting, I've been waiting for
my Robinhood credit card forever. And even me, right? Like I don't have my Robinhood credit card.
And I spent a lot of time with our team. But I learned that it's more than just a wait list.
So basically it also depends on like which state you're in,
what area you're in.
So for example, because my Robin account is registered
when I lived in Maryland, Maryland has certain rules
that they're not able to roll out their credit card there yet.
I don't know what it is.
And so you might just want to look like deeper.
It's more than just, oh, I'm waiting on a list. And it sometimes can be like, oh,
well, the state doesn't allow it. And so those were three interesting questions at the top that
I think, you know, Robin will talk about. And then, and then the Vlad, where do you see Robin
at 10 years from today? I think that one he'll actually speak to and really give because vision
is a big thing for him. So yeah, those would be like the questions that I think I pay attention
to. But if I was telling someone to ask a question honestly they've added a lot of the
stuff that i've talked to them about over the past year and asked them to add to this so i'm not sure
like right now if i have something different they've just added so much in the last like few
months that i'm kind of i'm kind of i'm kind of pretty happy with the product at the moment i
don't know amp is there something you would throw at them?
I think they're getting a lot of it.
I would ask about the prediction markets.
I think that's the most interesting thing to me, another source of revenue. We saw the Lost City of Gold event recently where they talked about a lot of new things.
I'm sure people will be asking about some of those.
But I would ask about these prediction markets and how much they're generating,
how much excitement around those.
Honestly, this is kind of cool, guys.
I would ask this because, you know, he's asking me.
I'm sure, Evan, have you already talked about the perplexity bot that we have going up here?
A little bit, yeah.
But why don't we tell more?
Well, I was going to say, I was going to ask perplexity, what should Stock Market News ask Hood today during their earnings call?
Something like that.
I don't know.
Something like that.
I thought that'd be fun.
Yeah, I just encourage you guys, if you want to see something interesting, go look at the Spaces chat.
We're teaming up with Perplexity, which is super exciting, by the way.
Pretty huge.
Pretty freaking cool.
This is obviously a very big name.
We have their CEO on Spaces a of weeks ago, Arvind, and their team is just a bunch of geniuses behind
the scenes that are leading the charge in generative AI, LLMs, all these different pieces.
And they have by far, I mean, second to Grok, which obviously Grok is built into X.
They have by far one of the most popular bots built into X, where you can just tag
at perplexity and ask it any question. and it'll give you a full deep dive answer.
You can ask it to do photo editing and stuff on the platform.
So listen, I mean, it's just pretty neat to me.
So I asked it some questions about mag seven earnings.
You can see this in the chat as well.
So I don't have to like talk about it too much.
To be honest, you guys can go look at it yourselves, but it's it's up there up top.
I thought it was super interesting.
You know, Gov, while you're on the topic of Robinhood, they did repost our episode from last week on investing with the boys, which was pretty cool.
Did they get you pretty hyped when you saw that?
Dude, I mean, yeah, we made it.
We're on the Robinhood page, man.
Yeah, shout out.
They did retweet that.
So, yeah, obviously, I'm pretty invested in the company here.
Rooting for good earnings.
Illogical, while we've got you up here,
do you want to go ahead and give your thoughts on what you're seeing in the market today?
Yeah, absolutely.
You know, I think it was like...
Are you feeling a little bit better?
Yeah, you know, a little bit better.
Still pretty bad today, but took some talent.
I'm feeling better after some caffeine as well.
So doing all right.
Yeah, so I think it was Blake that said it.
We keep getting this kind of, I don't know, this, I don't know if it's confirmation, but
It's confirmation, but the market is very much speaking.
the market is very much speaking.
And I've been somebody who's traded both sides of this market through all this volatility
since February.
And what I can say is the market is so resilient.
It's freaking crazy, man.
And it's like exactly where you think things should be rejecting.
They're not.
I mean, they reject and then they recover.
We're seeing like red to green constantly.
And, you know, I'm obviously open-minded and I'm willing to pivot back to,
I keep basically, I keep trying to layer on shorts as a hedge
since we've ripped pretty hard off the lows.
I mean, what, we're like 15% off the lows at least.
And, you know, many names are up 50, 60% from the lows. I mean, what, we're like 15% off the lows at least. And, you know,
many names are up 50, 60% from the lows. It's crazy. So I keep trying to short things as like a way to hedge because we've seen some pretty nice gains and I want to be able to hold onto
those gains if we see any sort of sharp pullback. But I mean, a day like today where you get
basically the worst news back to back to back,
this is more news failure where we go red to green. And that's something that you pay attention
to. A weak market is one where you get green and it can't hold the gains and then it fades.
A strong market is one where you open up low and you start recovering through the day.
And that's what we're seeing. So I got blown out of my shorts and gladly so to be honest because you know i'm happy to see this market keep going up uh that'd
be great and you know there's that china news that came out that you know us is now reaching out i
mean dude we got a negative gdp print first one in three years i mean it's basically like confirming
everything that we were concerned about, slowing economy, potential recession.
You know, those ADP job numbers came in light.
Everything just looks bad.
And markets like, I don't care.
And just goes up.
So, you know, these are signals.
And, you know, a day like today, I'll make a comment too on TLT, long bonds.
This is the day that TLT should be up to $92 and it,
and it's not, and it faded and it faded worse even on the, um, that China news potentially,
you know, you know, I think maybe markets wondering, do we get another, uh, do we get
a delay in China tariffs, uh, while the deal gets, you know, plays out and all that stuff. So it's just such a weird
situation where you're getting the slowing economy, but bonds aren't catching a bit at all.
And you know what? Equities are. So yeah, I feel like I've taken TLT off my watch list. I keep
trying to trade this thing and it just never works. So, um, I think
if you're bearish, you short equities. And if you're bullish, you long equities and I don't
know, bonds just are not doing anything this year. I think long bonds anyway. Um, yeah,
what I will say that's been a very, like very strong today, mind you, spy is down 0.7%.
very strong today. Mind you, SPY is down 0.7%. XBI is up 1.2% today. Green. Almost every biotech
holding I have is up 4, 5, 6. I have a stock up 15% today. No news, nothing. They're just chilling,
dude. They're just going up and to the right because, you know, if we are having kind of this, still this tariff overhang, still this economic slowdown overhang.
I mean, these are the things that are very cheap right now versus, you know, like it's still crazy to me how strong Palantir is, for example.
I don't even know what to say about that one.
That thing just keeps ripping.
I keep trying to short it.
This morning I woke up and I was like, oh, Oh look, finally overnight short worked on Palantir. And that thing just ripped my face
off by the end of the day. So I exited on that too. Cause it's like, dude, this thing is just
does not want to go down. But, um, you know, I, I feel more comfortable adding things again,
fundamental investor hat on. Uh, I like to buy things that are cheap.
Trader hat on.
Yeah, you want to buy strength, right?
I'm hoping that now we're starting to see relative strength in the bios.
But I think if you have your trader hat on and not your investor hat on,
probably a lot of people are noticing the strength in names like Palantir, etc.
And they're just going to ride those winners, which they very much have been. They've been leaders. There's been a lot of strong names. Uber is one. So, you know,
I think traders are going to really like names like that, which totally makes sense to me.
For me personally, like the other side of my investing perspective, which is not just looking at strength like a trader would, but a valuation like a deal on the market.
That's keeping me a little bit hesitant, given that we still may have ripples in the economic activity
from all this nonsense that's happened that could end up impacting EPS for these companies.
And they are headed into these earnings, not just these earnings, but earnings for the rest of the year. That's still like not far off the multiples we were at two
months ago after this recent recovery. So yeah, I mean, the recoveries have been nice, but
it's not something that I care to chase necessarily. Um, yeah. So, um, for me,
it's mostly just paying attention to where is value in the market.
Hoping that we can start to finally see some sort of bifurcation and see some money chase more value, which is kind of lacked.
But yeah, I mean, clearly leaders are continuing to lead. But, you know, I don't know.
Maybe Palantir hits 150 after earnings, to be honest. I don't
know, but dude, it's basically approaching a hundred times sales again. It's just besides
just being like this wrecking ball winner from a technical perspective and being kind of like,
you know, liquid leader out of this recovery from a fundamental perspective, I just can't see it.
this recovery from a fundamental perspective, I just can't see it.
And I think that there's probably a lot of those cases. So for me, I, you know,
I think maybe it's just best to avoid a lot of these things and, you know,
I'm still willing to take on shorts as hedges, but yeah,
this market is really strong. So I guess my,
to sum it all up is like buy things that you like at value.
You like be comfortable in what you're holding still be nimble but i mean this market keeps like shaking off any sense of doubt
and just going higher so yeah i mean i'm still willing to be nimble and you know pivot reduce
my long exposure etc but i mean it's tough to deny days like today.
Appreciate you sharing those thoughts there.
Logical.
Let's keep it moving over.
Let's go over to Wolfie next and then we'll hit Erkel.
Cool.
I got a question for you. You can ask the Robinhood CEO what his top five questions are.
There you go.
I'll keep him busy.
So I kind of have a little bit of a different take.
Yeah, it's a little resilient, but you do have the end of the month, beginning of the new month.
You have earnings on deck. If you didn't sell in the wash and you missed out on a run in the last
few days, like take meta, for example, up like 10.5% 12% somewhere around there off the lows depending
on where you want to market then you know you might want to position ahead of these things and
it's kind of like a coin flip uh earnings situation anyways where a lot of stuff's kind
of baked in a lot of a lot of earnings that are going to be bad are going to kick the can and
you know so there's there's a little bit of a little bit of everything for for
both sides but i i do think that you know just the timing of where these things have kind of lied
kind of gives us that little soft spot for the bid that you saw um and then you know on the flip like
all of this could really change if you get some sort of CapEx guide down from some of these big,
big boys, specifically like Microsoft, which was kind of the focal point for Microsoft and
which were kind of the focal point for the CapEx spend, you know, last quarter. So I do think
that Google earnings gives people a little bit of
optimism if you did miss out on that that bottom uh was it two mondays ago you got a little bit
of sell maybe you want to buy into it or whatever but i don't think that like the overall pictures
dramatically change too much um the the china headline about like making a deal is positive.
It's positive until someone says it's not a positive.
And then I do think that the print that we got, I saw some notes this morning from, or
not notes or comments, whatever, from people saying that they thought some of this bad
news kind of opened the door for cuts down the line.
And yeah, that might be the case. But
I also think that the inflation number kind of is going to put it in Powell's camp to kind of have
a little bit of a battle. And I do think that's going to come at some point. Could we get a
window now just from the seasonality front and just earnings season kind of being a wash? Yeah, sure. But I do
think that we will still have some of these problems down the line. And so, you know, if you
want to trade it, trade it. I'm not going to, I'm not like, you know, doom and gloom all the way.
But for me, I think I'm just going to sound like a broken record. I'm trying to focus on these
idiosyncratic things that, you know, can move and move
dramatically and still not be big enough to impact the overall market specifically.
So like a name you guys mentioned that I'm not trading is like Palantir, for example.
Palantir is big enough to where it matters, but it's also small enough to where it's not
going to chew up, you know, half a percent off the index if it's down, whatever.
Right.
So unlike, you know, the Metas, the Apples, the NVIDIAs, et cetera.
I do also think, speaking of NVIDIA, that this SMCI headline yesterday that we were
talking about, you guys specifically went on with, I think when i think monitive mentioned it when you guys brought it up yesterday and and
i think the price action kind of reflects it as well that yeah could there be some truth to it
yes but in general it seems to be kind of shrugged as more uh smci problem and it's kind of like a
they're losing a customer or something like that versus
like the overall the overall health um that said I do think there's a little bit of caution that
that in the entire space um the the uh other side of the chipset the chip space not the AI side
um CEA had like um an unexpected positive quarter an unexpected positive quarter. So that's, that side of,
of the market is, is probably going to see some sort of optimism on the back of that.
We'll see if these are like one-offs. Um, but you know, again, it is for me,
idiosyncratic, you know, non, not, not huge names. Obviously if you get, you get headlines that
like on the earnings front,
for example, that are positive,
they become like tailwinds and they become
tradable tailwinds. But I'm not trying
to get in front of everything. I mentioned
a couple days ago,
I mentioned a couple of names.
One of them was Rivian, for example.
Rivian, the last
couple of times, it's come up
on this downtrend. it's rejected it.
One of the times it broke out and then it failed.
But, you know, across the board, you can go back 2024, end of 2023 failed.
July 24 failed.
December 24 failed.
You know, in February it failed.
And now it seems like it, you know, on the back of this rejection that we got,
it seems like it got sold back to the 200-day
and it's starting to act
a little bit stronger.
And again, it's one of those
smaller names
that could be impacted
by some of the headlines,
but it's small enough to where it can kind of
trade on its own. And that's kind of been
the sweet spot for some of the things that I'm looking at,
some of the things I'm trading.
Another one I mentioned was DoorDash.
Same thing.
Sold off this morning.
It's basically right back to that breakout point, that 190, 192 level.
Any kind of follow through in this thing can be up 5%, 10% in a blink.
And it's not one of those names that's going to like impact,
you know, dramatically the S&P or the NASDAQ,
whatever sort of kind of fly under the radar.
Other ones I've mentioned before, like Service Titan, Tempest, etc.
So that's kind of like my sweet spot where I'm at.
I don't think anything really changed my thinking today.
Obviously, we're going to have these earnings and you get a tape bomb one way.
If we get a tape bomb or if we get like a upside surprise one way or the other, you're going to have
like a violent reaction on the back of that.
So just kind of want to be cautious and aware of that.
But that's pretty much it.
Appreciate that, Wolfie.
Yeah, we are right here.
Last day of the month.
Do you wonder if they dress this up a little bit or maybe if uh this entire day has been some uh end of month
buying going on on this dip i don't know that would be a an interesting theory or thesis to make
uh urkel let's go over your direction next and see what you're seeing out there in the markets
what's up everybody thanks for having me back me back on. There's tons of unpredictability day-to-day or intraday in this market,
but I've actually found the short-to-medium-term trends quite predictable.
For a technical trader, this has absolutely been as good a market as you could hope for
if you're buying dips and selling at resistance levels.
Like Tesla's one, that's been really good. a market as you could hope for if you're buying dips and selling at resistance levels like
tesla's one that's been really good palantir's one i've actually um cover quite frequently with robin hood um and to um to logical's point earlier palantir actually on an extension has room to run
to about 160 and and i know it's overvalued from a fundamental perspective,
but we've certainly seen momentum carry things higher.
In terms of the markets, though,
I'm actually not bullish at all where we're at right now.
And the reason is I'm a technical trader,
and the technicals have played out perfectly so far.
On SPY and QQQ, which I
follow for overall health, I'm looking at bounces, so relief bounces. So the one thing, especially
for you medium to longer term investors and traders you want to be aware of or be able to
differentiate, is between a relief rally and a trend change.
So SPY and the Q's bounced off key support levels two weeks ago, three weeks ago, and kind of started this upward rally two weeks ago, Monday, when we were dumping.
And then I think it was Besson's comments that came to light that Monday.
Things turned around Tuesday and we gapped up Wednesday. But the markets have rallied right up into the SPY and QQQ's 0.618 levels on a bounce.
So generally speaking, in an uptrend, I buy dips at the 618 FIB level, generally speaking,
give or take a few percent, catch the ride back up. And what you'll see often in weakness and downside is relief rallies
or relief bounces up into that 618 fib level again and that's where they'll reject that's
actually exactly where we rejected yesterday and dropped i've actually posted a lot about this on
my feed yesterday so i took some sqq uh sqqQ hedge yesterday which did really well this morning
and although we're pushing and although the market has been resilient SPY and the Q's have pushed
right back into that FIB extension or FIB level and we haven't made new highs so you know not to
revisit all of the macro conversation that's been had so far, a lot of it's been negative.
I'm not convinced this market's ready to push higher yet.
And the 618 FIB levels on this bounce actually line up just a couple percent below the 200 daily SMA on the SPY and QQQ.
I shared my views on Bitcoin here a couple couple weeks ago and MSTR when we were at
380,000 or so and those bounced right into resistance too. So we've got a lot of confluence
at resistance with SPY, QQQ and Bitcoin. And I can share those levels real quick. SPY the resistance zone is 547 to 563 so this is major
major resistance and an area where we could potentially see a hard rejection
and if we do that could actually potentially confirm or establish a
long-term downtrend so as of right, this is a relief bounce and nothing more unless we break and hold
563 and above, then we could go back and test the 200 SMA. On the Qs, that resistance zone is 471 to
488. Major, major resistance there would line up with that kind of generally in a downtrend area,
you would expect to see rejection and drop to new lows.
And on Bitcoin that resistance level is 95.2k.
So all three of those, despite the bounce backs today,
none of them have been able to claim and hold or push higher than the levels from yesterday yet.
So for me, that's still of concern.
And I'm definitely not adding to my longs here unless I see strength at these highs.
Otherwise, I'll wait for drops.
And of course, we got a big portion of the MAG7 reporting earnings tonight and tomorrow, which could help set the tone.
But yeah, with this macro backdrop and where we are at in terms of technicals, I am not looking at adding my longs. I've trimmed,
I've had four swings coming into the day. I've trimmed all of them aggressively. I'm holding
about 25 to 30% size. I've got an SQQQ hedge on, which I added yesterday and I trimmed this morning.
And I'm going to wait for direction from this point. I'm not suggesting we've topped out.
We're going to wait for direction from this point.
I'm not suggesting we've topped out.
I'm suggesting markets are at major, major resistance levels
after a relief rally.
And unless we can break through,
I personally would anticipate a pullback
before continuation higher.
And I think over the next two to three days,
we should have a little bit more direction.
And hopefully we can assess price and trend from there.
Hopefully that's helpful and happy to answer any questions.
Yeah, some great thoughts there, Urkel.
Urkel, are you following the MSTR and Bitcoin story much?
I know you've talked about the last couple of days.
What's your updated thoughts around the Bitcoin chart? And then obviously, I don't know, are you looking at
MSDR earnings at all tomorrow? Or is that kind of just, we already kind of know?
No, you know, I look at the earnings and even the Bitcoin miners, which I discussed too.
I do find that a lot of these proxies, unless there's some kind of dilution or something really
heavy hitting in the earnings, they don't tend to respond aggressively to earnings reports, in my experience anyway.
For me, I look at it more from a technical perspective.
And MSTR, when we talked about it with Bitcoin at support near 80K, we were talking about MSTR at 300 as well.
And MSTR, my upper target or limit was 370 to 400. That's what
I was looking at as a target. And it just so happened to coincide with Bitcoin's 95.2k
resistance level as well. And both ran into that and have rejected so far. So MSTR did yesterday
and today, or is, you know, kind of actively testing that zone so again I think not
only with the crypto names everything else too is up against major resistance so Tesla that would be
293 Palantir is 120 to 125 all-time highs and if you look across the board everything is kind of
jammed up against resistance right now so So with markets there too, and you often
find things move in unison, I'm not saying I'm bearish. I'm also not bullish. I just want some
more direction from this point on. I feel like if this was a relief rally and nothing more,
we have hit the upper levels of that relief rally and a pullback would generally ensue.
But again, a lot is unknown. So my updated thoughts are the risk reward today
at these current levels is not beneficial for the upside
or as beneficial as it was when we talked about it two weeks ago.
And I prefer to have direction before actively trading it.
You can day trade the dips while the markets are trying to retest these highs.
But this is very common too, right?
When markets top out, you don't just go up and V-shape back down.
A lot of times you will retest those highs several times over several days,
which we've been seeing since yesterday.
And then you start to see these kind of rounded tops develop,
and then the downside follows from there.
So, you know, bottoming takes time.
It's a process.
And so does topping out. You know, there's an accumulation distribution phase. And if we are at
the distribution phase of these levels, crypto and non-crypto, then I would just be cautious and
wait for a little direction with markets pushing up against these major resistance levels.
Can I add to the levels thing real quick?
So we sold off about 20%.
A lot of these names that carried us
sold off more than the market.
So just for example, Microsoft,
no Microsoft, Meta down 35%, Amazon down 33%.
And the move that they've had off the lows
has been about 15.
So basically,
flip a coin, either it's either you get something and maybe you go back and test those lows,
or let's say it's positive and you get to like, you know, some of the levels people talk about
because I've got 200 day 100 day, depending on the stock, whatever, right. So in in the event
that it's positive, right? So take meta, for example. The levels that most people are highlighting
would give you basically a 50% retrace of that move.
And generally, you know, in sell-off markets,
when you get a 50% retrace is where you find
some kind of, you know, exhaustion
or some kind of additional selling.
So like the comments that he's making
where you kind of want to. So like the comments that he's making where
you kind of want to see it prove itself out, that's kind of the logic as well to it.
You know, when you get up to some of these levels where you've kind of like made some people whole,
you know, on the back of whatever the catalyst may be, if you don't get through that point,
then those people that haven't been made whole will want to be made whole or will want to avoid going through what they went through previously. So I just kind of wanted to throw that in there.
Yeah, great points. And, you know, oftentimes you find too, and this is kind of more with specific
stocks, you'll find people will buy at certain levels and hold through downside. And then
eventually when the stock rallies back up and gets to their break even during negativity or periods
of fear, they'll sell at that point. So you'll see a lot of break even selling or people selling at
a loss that will then
drag markets even lower. And oftentimes that's how you end up with those lower high and lower
low scenarios. It's not just off the cuff selling. A lot of times it's people holding, not believing
in the downside move, catching a bounce and then reviewing the trading or the market economic
environment and then thinking to themselves or the market economic environment,
and then thinking to themselves, hey, you know what?
I'm close to break even.
Why don't I just get out here and see what happens? And then oftentimes you'll see kind of the downside resume
and often lead to lower lows as well with far less demand
than where you initially started.
Just to cut in, SPI just went green on the day, everything else too.
Yeah.
End of month, as I was mentioning, end of month market.
Market on close and balance is $3 billion to buy.
Well, I have $4.2 now as of $12.50, but yeah, same concept.
No, so to the other part of what,
the opposite of what Urkel just said is true as well, right?
So like when we are selling off, you get these, you know, when we were selling off, you had a bunch of people saying, we want
to see some sort of capitulatory event, we want to see some violence and all that stuff. That's
part of why you want to see it. Because basically you want anyone that can't stomach the selling
to just get out. And so when you go back and retest those levels, so like we went
back and retested some of these levels two Mondays ago, right? And it got to basically the abyss for
lack of a better term, and then it didn't puke. Now you've given anybody who's stomached it twice,
you've given them basically, you know, they're not going to sell it right at that moment. And
then you've given other people who haven't participated that floor to kind of trade against.
So the psychology works both ways.
It just depends on, you know, the market in front of you or the direction that you're headed.
Great. We've got uh eight minutes left here um we are green on the day believe it or not a lot of things just went ready green yeah a lot of buying here end of month uh it's kind of what
i was mentioning earlier i know a couple of you guys mentioned it as well and uh yeah here we go i was over here actively managing some positions real fast
but yeah a few more minutes here we do have all of those earnings coming up stock sniper are you
with us yes sir there he is what are you uh what are you looking at going into these earnings
reports i know you've always got some good data for us. You know, I got to say my top watch, and this is just my personal top watch, which again, I could totally understand if anybody else cares about some of the other names reporting more.
But I got to say I'm looking at Robinhood. We're looking at an implied move today of $4.75 or 9.91%.
We can see as of the last couple of reactions with Robinhood, a plus 14.11% and a minus 16.73%.
Robinhood earnings have been extremely volatile lately.
We're coming into this report with 1,976,862 open interest, which is pretty high for Robinhood.
I think that this will be a pretty exciting report coming out here.
Based on the last two reports, there always is a possibility that Robinhood unveils a new strategy or, you know, decides to drop some
new information, which is not out of character at all for this company. So I'm going to be watching
this one the most intently. And, you know, I think the Robinhood earnings call itself might
be pretty interesting as well, just for some other catalysts that I'm sure you guys will all find out soon about. With Microsoft earnings, another one that everybody's really
looking forward to, we have a $15.11 implied move or 3.87%. The previous reactions we could see
minus 6% for two consecutive quarters and minus 1% the third quarter ago, and plus 1.82% four
quarters ago. Since the last report, Microsoft is only down 11.66%. Not too far off
from where they were a quarter ago. We're coming into this report with 2,003,461 open interest.
I anticipate also that with some of these Mag7 names, they're going to have a bit lower open
interest than they typically do because oftentimes there's longer term strategies that are on a lot
of these names that typically will count towards
the open interest going into an earnings report. So I imagine that there's a lot of money still
off the table, longer term money. But when we go over towards meta earnings, which is the
third one that I'd say that we really want to hear about and we care about a lot,
we can see an implied move of $33.81 or 6.24%. We all remember Meta's had a pretty interesting quarter, but previous reactions we
could see plus 1.55%, minus 4.09%, plus 4.82%, and minus 10.56%. Since the last report, Meta is down
19.55%, coming into this earnings report with 2,094,432 open interest. The Last one that I know a lot of people care about, one of our early
indications in towards the semiconductor sector is the Qualcomm earnings. With this, we have an
implied move of $7.80 and 5.32%. Our previous reactions, we could see a minus 3.72, a minus
0.05, basically no reaction, minus 9.37% plus 9.74%. And since the last report, Qualcomm is down 16.64%.
Coming into this earnings report with 540,817 open interest, which is pretty low for this name, which tells us there's not a lot of anticipation coming onto this Qualcomm earnings call compared towards the previous quarters that they've had.
Qualcomm earnings call compared towards the previous quarters that they've had.
But that's pretty much everything that I got for today.
If there's any of the other names that anybody's interested in,
I have eBay stuff out there.
I've been posting earnings stuff all day.
You likely will find that full schedule and everything.
And I will be putting tomorrow morning's earnings out very shortly after close.
Very nice. Very nice.
Appreciate your stock, Sniper. Appreciate sniper appreciate you amp i'm excited
we got some big numbers coming in yeah we did we just hit the 50-day moving average on qqq by the
way took out yesterday's high i haven't even looked at the markets really close no close the
markets now's the time now's the time but yeah most of these numbers by the way are coming out around 4 0 5 p.m eastern microsoft
meta robin hood all should be out pretty much at the exact same time there so it's a little bit
rough for uh the people up here but uh yeah get ready to see that in the next two or three minutes
emp how was your day in the stock market today?
I'm curious.
You watch any of these earnings?
Yes.
It was a tale of three stories, we'll say, instead of two.
I swung puts yesterday at the close.
We closed that gap on Liberation Day.
And I swung puts. I was selling some equity, and then I just hedged, basically, is all I did.
I took some puts just to hedge downside. I figured there would be some profit taking.
Obviously, I didn't foresee news or anything coming out, but funny how that timing happens sometimes.
But I closed out most of those at the open.
And then once I saw that quick V balance as we continued up throughout the day and held, I ended up closing out the rest of those.
I got absolutely
ram trucked i tweeted this out i got ram trucked on futures trying to short a couple times this
morning but this last pump right here just sent me green all the day so it turned out to be
pretty good day actually at the end of the day rich get richer well i don't know i don't know
about that i i was deep in the trenches at one point today. I'll be completely honest. Did not think I was going to.
I was just trying to chip back to less red, actually, most of the day as far as the future side of things goes.
But yeah, in the end, it's worked out.
They dressed her up nicely.
They got her up in the windows.
Our friend Frank always says got a new nice dress on her.
She's looking good here at the end of the month.
So, yeah, we'll see what happens.
I mean, I'm watching.
I'm very interested in hood.
Microsoft and Meta, of course.
I feel like Meta's poised to have a good report.
I don't see any reason why they wouldn't.
Microsoft, on the other hand,
Microsoft was kind of the first names that got beat up and sent down.
So, as bad as Microsoft was leading on the downside, I'm sitting here thinking, well, hey,
maybe the bad part's over. And then I guess, and this is just kind of the shot in the dark
guesstimation would be that we probably get a couple of decent reports today.
And then Amazon and Apple, I feel like are a lot riskier type of reports for tomorrow,
especially with the current situation that we're all in.
So it'll be interesting.
I also thought, you know, some of the news stories that came out today were interesting.
I mean, NVIDIA has essentially shrugged off that SMCI thing.
The China thing is still very interesting to me because we essentially had China telling us that the U.S.
There was no negotiations with the U.S. No talks were being made that the U.S.
there was no negotiations with the U.S.
No talks were being made with the U.S.
And we had the White House say it and then Trump reiterate that there actually were talks between the two.
And so it was kind of like a game of recess, you know,
back in elementary school of, okay, who's telling the truth here?
What's going on?
Markets did just close.
There is our closing bell.
Wow.
We got rejected right at the 50-day.
50-day, yeah.
Qualcomm numbers are out.
EPS 285,
VN expectations of 281, revenue of
10.84 billion, VN expectations of
10.64 billion. Looks like
their forward guidance is
for the most part
in line with expectations.
These numbers came out so quick on Qualcomm.
I don't know.
Something felt weird about that.
I was just about to say
we're expecting Qualcomm first,
but like, I mean,
they're a minute early.
Yeah, Qualcomm out.
What's the stock doing on Qcom?
Robinhood with an initial move
higher in After Hours,
but I haven't seen any of the numbers yet.
I wouldn't trust that move.
And obviously some of our other friends,
feel free to join in,
jump in on these numbers as they are coming.
Microsoft's ripping.
Well,
Microsoft's ripping.
So are like Nvidia and Amazon.
Yeah,
that is interesting.
I was seeing them.
So was hood,
but I'm waiting.
If anyone sees numbers,
feel free to,
to jump in too.
And then obviously as these numbers
come out, you're digesting
a 30-40 page doc in
a couple seconds here. You find the important stuff.
Sometimes it takes a minute or two
to find the numbers. Definitely
stick with us for that.
What's up, Omar?
Omar.
Hey, happy earnings day.
Merry earnings day to you, sir.
You excited? Are you watching a couple of these
meta, Microsoft, or is Hood the main one you're
excited for?
Yeah, I actually
own shares in all three,
so I'm interested to see how they report.
I'm looking
forward to it.
So is the Microsoft numbers out? Because that thing is up.
I have not seen Microsoft numbers yet.
It's trading like it's out, though.
It's up like 5%.
Microsoft is out.
Oh my goodness.
It's ripping.
Intelligent Cloud Revenue, 26.8 billion beating expectations.
EPS was 346 beating expectations of 322.
I'm waiting to see revenue on Microsoft.
Interesting. It's not there in that place. 70. I'm waiting to see revenue on Microsoft. Interesting, it's not there
in that place. $70 billion, I'm seeing.
I'm seeing $70 billion.
$70 billion
or on the dot? $70.1, I see.
Interesting,
so double beat there for Microsoft.
$70.1, $68.4
expected. Alright, there we Microsoft. 70.1. Microsoft cloud revenue. 68.4 expected.
All right, there we go.
So one of the big three are out here that we're having reporting today.
Just based on the after hours action, it is reclaiming the 200-day now.
That's insane.
What a move.
It's above 420.
Microsoft quarterly CapEx, 21.4 billion.
I don't see expectations versus that I mean so initial
move on Microsoft is higher by a solid amount of percentage points there Nvidia stock also with a
with a small bounce here up 0.45% in in after hours trading Microsoft stock though up currently
seven percent let me get meta numbers in front of me or
meta stock still not seeing the numbers
so double beat there on Microsoft cloud also came in above
so I think last quarter guide for Cappex was 22.6 billion 22.6 billion you said so what did they
just no no no hold on no no i'm sorry i'm sorry that's wrong let me let me get back sorry
fake news it should be roughly 20 because their annual number is is 80 so it should be roughly 20, 20, 21, 22, something.
The 21.4, I mean, I guess
it's still within the range there.
I don't think people are going to make a big deal out of that
because as long as it's between 20
to 22-ish, it's going to fit
their year-long
CapEx guide. So that's really what matters.
I don't think people in general are concerned
about CapEx on Microsoft's end
that much anymore.
I mean, obviously the data center lease cancellations, that's more of an analyst call question.
I don't think that that's going to be reflected or implied in any of the earnings results.
But, yeah.
Qualcomm is now down 6%, 6.5%. All right, we got one minute away
from when we should be getting these
meta and Robinhood numbers.
Interesting, they're both already out
like 1% to 2%.
According to Earnings Hub,
405 is the time we should expect both those numbers yeah microsoft was supposed to be 405 as well i was going to
spread a little bit earlier so five seconds away those expectations are just based on when they
reported earnings in the past and large companies tend to do at the same time all right 405, waiting on Meta. And there's Robinhood.
Meta just went up 5%. Meta earnings are out.
Let's see.
Meta, revenue of $42.3 billion being expectations of $41.3.
EPS, $6.43, I believe.
I see $6.43 versus $5.25.
Double beat.
Someone just took a deep breath there.
There you guys go.
You're welcome.
Deep sigh of relief.
Robinhood stopped now.
Yeah, nice on meta.
Initial Robinhood earnings.
EPS 37 cents.
Beating expectations 33 cents 927
million being expectations of 925
million double beat for Robin Hood as
well wow
and if we didn't get that a 50
day reclaim on queues at the end of
the day we're getting them now
oh yeah
oh yeah
we closed a break even on QQQ. We're at 0.6%.
Almost 0.7%.
Don't you know, pump it up.
Yeah, let's go.
2.5% on the video now.
Robin Hood reversing back down a little bit red here.
god oh my god this is so annoying I'm sorry I keep saying that
God, oh my God, this is so annoying. I'm sorry I keep saying that.
meta sees you two cells 42 to 45 versus 44 estimate okay yeah so that their midpoint
meta did give weak guidance there a little bit yeah a little bit below midpoint application point application classic constructs
it count is up 11% year-over-year
we expect our full year total expenses to be 113 to 118 billion lowered from
its 114 to 119 billion probably 2025 CapEx range has been increased. Meta
increased its CapEx range for the year.
That's insane. That's big.
It's probably one of
videos up 2% as well.
Robinhood is back
to basically where it closed. I mean, the end of the day,
Rip was from this area, so
you'd call it flat. The thing with Robinhood versus the day rip was from this area, so you call it flat.
The thing with Robinhood versus the other two, I think the other two, obviously they're much larger,
make bigger part of the index. So they're more like notable significance of the market.
With Robinhood, obviously it's a great stock, great company. But so many people play options
into earnings on names like that. I think StockSnipe was just saying how much open interest there was, and that was quite
a lot.
In those scenarios, when you have so many people buying options, the options are priced
to perfection, and typically vol sellers end up winning in names like that.
I think it's a big win for the market.
This updated CapEx, increased CapEx spend, they're saying,
this updated outlook reflects additional data center investments
to support our AI efforts,
as well as increase the expected cost of infrastructure.
The majority of our CapEx will continue to be directed
at our core business, is what they're saying.
I don't know, a little different than what we've been hearing.
Meta, not stopping its CapEx spend.
So really, I do pretty good news across the board here.
I mean, as far as the market goes, except for Qualcomm,
which would probably be the only negative that we've seen this afternoon.
Microsoft has major resistance around 421 as well.
It's rejecting there so far.
And SPYQQQ, nice reactions, but still in the major resistance zone.
So I do wonder how this all kind of plays out after the initial reaction
once we get on the calls.
Still not breaking any major resistance levels market-wide.
Yeah, I think if you got some of these moves to reverse on the calls, then you probably want to get a little more defensive, probably.
I would agree with that, especially with where markets are at right now after a 6-8 session rally or so since last Tuesday.
Definitely want to be cautious with more earnings coming tomorrow.
If this move fades here,
the one,
the thing I'll,
the thing I'm interested in is how the ones that haven't reported are going
to trade.
Are they going to,
are they going to ramp them into the thing or are they going to just,
you know,
wait and see as well.
That's kind of like what I want to see.
Okay. you know, wait and see as well. That's kind of like what I want to see. Well,
Amazon's up 1.4,
1.3% after hours.
So that kind of tells you.
So if we retake the,
if we retake the 50 day and the markets hold this move,
is it back to being Trump's market?
Yep.
Exactly.
He was already taking the victory lap this morning a little bit.
Blame Biden for the first two quarters.
But not Q4 last year, of course.
Imagine we're up 4% tomorrow, and then Trump tweets,
yeah, this is my market now.
I'm reclaiming it.
By the way, Robinhood also announced March metrics no no that actually is
included in the quarter nevermind after there even is April
interesting okay
all right I'm digging into this.
Let's pause screw.
I'm going to dig a little bit more into the Robinhood quarter for a second now.
You can keep us passing along.
Oh, we haven't heard much from Stock Talk yet today.
I don't have a tremendous amount to add.
I mean, we've had some great commentary.
You know, markets are kind of at a point of indecision right now, in my view.
A lot of individual names have been working and setting up.
And I mentioned this last week.
I did take some stabs on some individual names that have worked well.
There's a biotech that I added, the logical added as well, ASND, which has done nicely and did nicely today as well.
Hunting Denning Gallus, the U.S. shipbuilder,
which I added, has held up pretty well. It even held up pretty well during the pullback today,
closed flat on the day, but they have earnings tomorrow as well. Obviously, I have Amazon reporting earnings later this week. I don't expect it to be a terrific environment for Amazon,
so I'm not expecting a ton of upside there, but I've owned Amazon stock for like eight years. So it's not really a stock where I look at it every quarter
and ask myself if I should be selling it or buying it. It's more of just an investment for me,
but I do have a lot of trades on the table. You know, I have a lot of my aerospace and defense
stock trades on the table, Kratos and Breyer Jets. You know, I have my border plays,
Geo and CoreCivic, which are the U.S. border servicing plays.
So those are the ones where, you know,
the earnings reaction will dictate, you know,
if I stay in those trades or not.
So those I'll be paying a little bit more attention to.
I know those aren't popular stocks,
so we probably won't get a lot of interest on them in this space.
But as far as the big names go, I have Robinhood's one of my biggest positions.
I like this report at face value. You are going to expect Robinhood to see
some, I don't want to say unpredictable guides, but you are going to expect a little bit of
unpredictability in the growth outlook for Robinhood when we are in a market environment
like this, that obviously dampens you know the
ability to grow a um and it also um it can dampen market activity not always but it can dampen
market activity so robin hood i expect you know to perform as well as the market does frankly
and if the market could hold up in reverse i think that stock will continue to do very well
it's already rebounded insanely off the lows you know know, down in the 30s, 50s.
You know, now trading around $49 here in after hours.
So not worried about the outlook for Robinhood.
Microsoft, I'm not a shareholder, but nice report, at least on the surface.
Same thing goes for Meta.
We do need to see a little bit of that uh to reinvigorate enthusiasm of the
tech stocks you know the one thing about the big tech names is that largely speaking outside of
your heavily china exposed names like apple and tesla you know names like microsoft meta
they can find their way around the tariff conversation and so i think there's a handful of the mag seven names that have that advantage um i think microsoft meta netflix even which is you know an old mag
seven fang name i don't even know if people still include it spotify there was a ton of positive
commentary on spotify this morning i think rightfully so uh for the same reason that
netflix has done so well and held up very well like
spotify doesn't give a shit about tariffs like why would tariffs impact spotify why would tariffs
impact netflix and if you read the jp morgan note this morning on spotify actually which i thought
was a nice note they raised their price target to 670 spotify was up about seven percent today
even when the market dipped it didn't budge um and kept going higher on the day
but jp morgan came out this morning and basically said look in an environment where people are
looking for immunity and protection against tariffs they think spotify is one of the best
plays in the market and they also cited the resilience that netflix had earlier in the year
and mentioned that in their thesis but But, yeah, interesting note on Spotify
from J.P. Morgan this morning.
There's actually a couple of other people on it also today.
Yeah, you had UBS and Benchmark
reiterating their buy ratings as well,
but J.P. Morgan was the only one
that meaningfully raised their target.
Yeah, Wells Fargo as well reiterating their buy rating barclays reiterating
their buy rating so a lot of positive commentary on spotify um this morning that stock did very
well obviously but yeah i think that's what people should be looking for if you're a trader
obviously if you're an investor you know continue to sit on the stocks that you love and buy them, you know, on weakness. But if you're
a trader and you're looking for spots of long performance in this environment, it's not just
about looking for relative strength. It's about looking for relative strength that makes sense,
right? These relative strength stocks that have a reason to go up, a good reason to go up.
And I think that's where you're going to find
your best opportunities in this market.
I think a lot of people just look for relative strength
in a vacuum.
They're like, oh, the stock held up well,
so I should be long this stock.
But that sort of mentality doesn't work.
If you go back in 2022,
you look at the relative strength names in Q1 of 2022,
you look at their performance in Q2,
you wouldn't have wanted to be long, a lot of them. And the reason for that is when the market
unwinds stage one, you see your losers lose, right? Your names that are extended to the upside,
your names that are high valuations, they get crushed first. You know, they are the names
that go down six, 7% a day for a week straight.
And, you know, you see 40%, 50% drawdowns in those names in the blink of an eye because they're so high beta.
But then you also see baskets of names that are resilient to that initial wave of selling.
You know, you see 2% down days in the indexes.
You see these stocks down half a percent or maybe even up half a percent.
And, you know, a lot of people look at that and go, well, I should be long those names instead
because they're not going down as much. And then the next market downturn, those names start to
unwind as well. So you need to find relative strength names, in my view, that have good
context, good holding power in this environment, an ability to sort
of buck off the macroeconomic pressures.
Those are the best performing names in this environment.
If you want to find long exposure that's going to work for you, that's where I think you
have to look.
I've brought up a million times the categories that I've looked at where that's worked out,
mid-cap aerospace and defense, U.S. border servicing.
I tweeted a post last week with like six different industries where this is happening
so you can find these spots if you're an individual stock trader they're a lot harder to find than
they were last year no doubt about that i'm not implying this an easy market but um once we get
back above the 200 day moving average on the majores, a big sigh of relief will be injected into the
markets. You will see a lot of institutional entities that are still on the sidelines
being willing to participate when we're back above those levels. Right now, we're kind of
in no man's land. You pull up the S&P 500 and you look at just the basic technical structure.
And I know that Urkel went over this earlier, but he brought up a good point. We have the 50-day and the 200-day overhead.
Your 9-21 EMAs are really what has allowed for this bounce to happen.
You saw a reclaim of the 9-21 EMAs right off the lows,
not the actual local lows, which were 481-ish, 480, 481-ish,
but the recent lows from last week around 509, we bounced up through
that, retook the 9 and 21 EMAs, and then wedged ourselves in between the 50-day and the 9 and 21
EMAs. That's a really common look in markets where you're at a point of indecision. When you're in
between the, when you have an inclining 9 and 21 EMA, a declining 50-day moving average, and you get wedged in between them both.
It's a really common look.
You'll see it on individual stocks all the time.
And it usually sets up for a big move, either the upside or the downside.
Obviously, based on this after-hours action right now, you'd say, well, we're going to break to the upside there through the 50-day and potentially reclaim the 200.
Yeah, if this move holds tomorrow, then maybe.
But, you know, if we get rejected here,
we fade slowly below this 557 spot,
which I believe we're still below on SPY.
Yeah, 557.90, the 50-day moving average.
You slip below that and fade the move tomorrow at the open,
then that won't be a great sign.
And then you will potentially get the 9 and 21 EMAs to start slanting down,
which would open up the room for more downsides.
So the technical structure still has some work to do.
Like I said, we're kind of in no man's land.
The 200 days is not far away, though.
When we were looking at the potential for recovery a couple weeks ago,
when we were trading 480, 490, it looked pretty impossible, right?
You'd have to get back up to 570, which is where the 200 days sitting.
It's looking a lot more achievable now, but you will need this enthusiasm to continue.
We've got a couple of green days in
a row and you'd like to see a push back up to that 570 spot. If we can retake 570, get a soft
sell to push us back into it and confirm the 200 day breakout, that's where I'd start deploying a
lot more capital. I have already been deploying some capital, but that's where I'd start deploying
a lot more capital, uh, personally.
And I think you don't have to really make it more complicated than that. You know, a lot of stuff gets talked about on the technical side when the indexes are back above the 200 day moving average,
that's bullish. You know, until then you have these sort of volatility, uh, risks on the table.
Um, you know, you go in and you don't have to take my word for it.
You know, just go back and look at you.
Anyone can do this.
You can pull up an S&P 500 chart or whatever stock trading platform you have and go back.
Go back to 2022.
Go back to the crash, the COVID crash of 2020.
Go back to the market correction in 2018 if you want.
All of this data is available.
You don't have to take my word for it as somebody who's studied these moments. You can just go look
at them yourself and look at the moving averages and look at the way the index has responded to
them. And what you'll find is that there's a lot of fake outs. There's a lot of relief rallies that
lead to lower lows. There's a lot of play out at major resistance where indexes chop around for days or weeks at major resistance and give people headaches.
That stuff happens.
It's pretty common.
Stuff happens every few years when we go into corrective territory in the markets.
In fact, you even go back last year and look at the August correction, you'll see a lot of similarity in the markets. In fact, you even go back last year and look at the August correction,
you'll see a lot of similarity in the action. Now, the recovery was much more straightforward.
We sort of had a V-shaped recovery coming out of that. But you'll see a lot of similar action
on the way down, the way indexes acted against declining moving averages. These are very,
very basic, rudimentary things. It doesn't require you to be a rocket scientist.
We can go back, look at those historical environments on a technical basis, and then you know what
to expect, or you have some sort of feel of what to expect now that the market is in a
similar position.
So I thought economic data-wise, the data this morning was horrifically bad and not what we want to see.
I know a lot of people sort of try to play it off.
They were contextualizing the GDP print as to why it was negative because the tariff pulled forward.
I think that's fine.
But if you get another one, that's a technical definition of a recession.
So we have to be careful about that.
The jobs report was super weak.
But we do have initial jobless claims tomorrow.
And we have payrolls on Friday
as well. So we have two more job prints this week to either confirm or deny, or I should say confirm
or contest would be a better phrasing, that ADP report we got this morning. So we'll get better
context around jobs by the end of the week, which is nice. On the inflation side, you know,
people looked at the PC print and were like, yeah, relatively in line, nothing to worry about.
Maybe, you know, I didn't like the price index print on the GDP side.
Look, frankly, I'm not concerned about inflation either. Is it still a risk of it resurging?
Look, frankly, I'm not concerned about inflation either.
Is it still a risk of it resurging?
Yeah, but I'm more concerned about economic weakness now
than a resurgence in inflation.
So we'll have to see how the data plays out
headed into the summer.
But I did not like the data this morning.
I thought that that was concerning.
Obviously, the markets shrugged it off.
You know, it's really hard to determine
which attitude markets are in with regard to rate cut imminency.
And what I mean by that is there are points in the cycle where rate cut imminency is bullish.
And what I mean by that is bad data is good news.
You get weak economic data that pulls forward rate cuts.
weak economic data that pulls forward rate cuts, markets respond positively to it. That's sort of
Markets respond positively to it.
the normal mid-cycle mechanism where markets want that first rate cut so desperately that they're
willing to advocate for or to pump up the markets on bad data as a consequence of that. But there's
some point in the cycle always you never know when exactly it
is and no one has a crystal ball to be able to determine that shift in behavior but there's
always some point in the cycle where that changes and where you know you don't see market enthusiasm
off of bad data today obviously not necessarily an example of that we started the red day red
and closed the day green so markets were bought up on today's data. But you have to look at it in context and say, okay, what happens if this data
gets worse? Do the markets keep this enthusiasm about an impending rate cut, or do they then flip
to concern about a recession? And so we're somewhere teetering along that gray line right now,
a recession. And so we're somewhere teetering along that gray line right now, where this
attitude about the rate cut is injecting enough enthusiasm in the markets to produce a bid.
But if the data gets a little bit worse, that attitude could change. So those are things to
be mindful of on the macro and on the micro. Obviously, we have a couple more interesting
reports this week. We have Amazon this week as well.
So we'll get a lot of the mag seven out of the way by the end of the week, which should be a good thing for markets in terms of certainty.
And then next week, we have a lot of industrial names coming out
that should give us more of a broader picture on the economy.
We had some of those names this week as well.
So, yeah, a lot of earnings coming up to give us context,
a lot of economic data coming up to give us context. And I'm sure plenty of White House
statements coming out to give us context as well. So
Wait, I thought we changed the definition of a recession.
Oh, did we?
I thought we did that last, the last administration.
I'm just going.
Yeah, last summer, last fall.
So is it not too consecutive?
No, they said they, they changed.
Sorry, dude.
They, it's not me.
Don't shoot the messenger.
They changed the definition last time.
Yeah.
So is it going to be one of those Trump tweets where it's like,
that's Biden's definition?
Yeah, I don't know.
I'm not going by Biden or Trump's definition.
I'm just going by the definition.
I think they said in
2022 we didn't have a recession
because the NDR said it wasn't
because we didn't have unemployment to cover
or something like that.
They can spin it however they want.
If we meet the technical
definition of a recession, it's going to impact
consumer confidence in a big way.
Yeah, I'm referencing when we did have two consecutive quarters of slowdown, and then
they referenced what Logical just referenced as why it's not actually a recession.
Yeah, I mean, at the end of the day...
The goalposts for the sentiment, right, to Omar's point there.
Yeah, it's just semantics. I mean, like, I don't say it's just semantics, because the
point that Omar brought up is actually important. It's not just semantics, because there is economic implications in terms of confidence and business spending and consumer spending. There are implications when when that word starts getting disseminated on the media, like once CNN and MSNBC are saying like, we are in a recession. That's going to scare people. It scares businesses.
It scares consumers.
It makes people save more.
It's just a reality of the world,
especially now that we're so like media immersed.
It's going to be all over social media.
Everybody and their mother is going to be tweeting,
we're in a recession.
So that is more of the impact
than actually being in a technical recession.
Like the way we define it is less important in my view.
What's much more important is like, is the, is the economy going to slow down? You know,
is this not just a blip on the radar? Are we going to see more negative GDP prints for the
U S economy? That's not a good thing. It's especially not a good thing when the rest of
the world is selling America at the same time. People don't realize how rare it is
for American stocks to lag, which they have this year versus international stocks. And it's also
how rare it is for foreign investors to sell the United States across multiple asset classes,
across bonds, across stocks, and across the U.S. dollar.
That is so rare since World War II.
It's happened like three times since World War II on a one-month basis.
Three times.
It's been like fucking 80 years.
It's happened three times.
It happened in the 80s, happened in the early 70s, and there was one other time.
happened in the early 70s and there was one other time but that's crazy to think about
But that's crazy to think about.
what that tells you is that like the world overwhelmingly doesn't sell america even during
times of economic difficulty we get the preference you know people like that's it's the last thing
you're going to sell if you're a foreign investor in singapore and you have a book of international
stocks like the american stocks traditionally speaking are going to be the last stocks that you get scared out of.
And, you know, if we head into a slowdown now where we get more negative GDP prints,
the jobs data gets worse. And on top of that, you're seeing a fleeing of foreign investment
from the United States and seeing a dumping of the US dollar,
dumping of treasuries, dumping of stocks, that accelerates the problem and exacerbates the problem.
So that will make this slowdown uniquely different from the last few if we do get one,
because we do not have the backing of international flows the same way that we traditionally have.
Now, could that just be a blip on the radar?
Yeah, it could be.
Maybe this is just all panic and fear around the tariff policy.
And on the other side of it, everyone will forget that this happened and just go back to buying U.S. again.
I hope so.
I hope so.
I hope it's just a blip on the radar.
But if it's not, you know, that won't be a good thing.
So, um... Stocks, what's your take on that China news story that came out today? But if it's not, you know, that won't be a good thing.
What's your take on that China news story that came out today?
I don't know.
There's a lot of China news this morning.
What story?
The one that came out of China, that China state-ran news where they said that there were talks that were happening.
Yeah, Xinhua.
So I tweeted that headline from Xinhua this morning, and people in my comments were like, what the hell is Xinhua?
Like, is this even a legitimate source?
So Xinhua, and I don't know if I'm pronouncing that correctly, but it's spelled X-I-N-H-U-A in English.
They're a Chinese state media news source. And I actually read them a lot.
Not because I trust Chinese.
Oh, C-C-C talk. No, I read it a lot, not because I trust
the Chinese media, but because the Chinese government often does not like to make policy
statements. Okay. And you've seen this through the course of this tariff situation, right?
The foreign ministry will come out and be like, we're not talking to America. We didn't send
anyone to the treasury department. We're not negotiating to America. We didn't send anyone to the Treasury Department.
We're not negotiating.
You need to call us.
That's the type of statements you see from the Chinese foreign ministry and commerce ministry.
Because they take a stance directly under Xi, right?
They're the mouthpieces of Xi.
mouthpieces of Xi. So they're not going to come out and acknowledge weakness or make a plea
or contextualize their economic problems if those need to be shared with the public.
They're not going to do that through an official CCP mouthpiece. They just don't do it. Like,
anyone that's followed Chinese politics for any significant period of time knows this.
They refuse to admit or acknowledge weakness on the global stage. What they do instead is they use their Chinese state media,
and Russia does this as well with Russian state media. Pretty much all authoritarian countries
do this. They use their state media to make those points. If they need to share a story
about economic weakness, as long as it's allowed by Xi, they'll do it through the state media.
If they need to share a plea or a request to another nation, they'll generally do it through state media.
They're not going to have their foreign minister come out and go, we really want to talk to you.
They'll have state media do it, which is exactly what they did this morning.
They had a big statement in Zinhua state media where they're saying it's time for the united states to stop playing deaf and dumb you have to talk to your counterparts
um the international community needs you these are the type of things they're saying in that article
um i obviously just translated through chat gpt so i can't i can't imply that the translation is
perfect but i mean you know so, I don't speak Mandarin,
so I'm not going to be able to translate it exactly. But yeah, that's generally what they
were saying in the article this morning. And I think that's kind of a desperate tone, frankly,
you know, a desperate tone that you're not going to hear from the foreign ministry,
but they will communicate it through state media. So I think it's important to pay attention to state media for that reason.
You know, in the sense that you're not always going to hear the real story from the official CCP sources.
And they kind of use this as a tool to get those opinions out into the public.
Yeah, I mean, my take, reacting to it live earlier on Spaces While Trading,
was that that was a net positive.
When China has been saying that there are no talks going on,
and of course the White House and Trump separately both saying that there were,
and then now a state-owned news source put it out,
it kind of confirms that a little bit more.
I'm actually surprised Trump didn't take a victory lap on it, to be 100 percent honest.
Yeah, I don't know if he's paying. I think he wants the Chinese to say it directly, to be honest, as opposed to state media.
But, yeah, it's it's it's an interesting dynamic because, you know, I don't not everything that the state media reports on is a direct party line talking point, but most of it is.
And there's a clear intention from the CCP.
This has been true for decades to attempt to normalize the perception of Chinese journalism and the idea that like, Hey,
we have our own news agencies too.
The issue with that is, is like anybody who's not naive knows that they're all
state owned. They even says it on their website.
So it's just Chinese state media on their website. So yeah,
I mean like the Chinese try to sort of pack the punch and like hide the idea
that, um, these organizations are speaking on their behalf.
But frankly, they are, you know, like it's not like Chinese state media can come out
and say something that is not directly approved by the Chinese Communist Party.
Like they can't just write their own story and be like, hey, we're dropping this. Like, everything they do gets, you know, rubber stamped by the CCP.
So from that sense, it is pretty much an official statement is the point I'm trying to make.
Monitiv, we haven't heard much from you on this space.
Figured you were digging into some of these numbers and reports.
What thoughts do you have?
What are you finding in there?
There's a lot to dig into, so I'm not there yet.
I'm just looking through Microsoft now.
I don't remember how they split it up and what the growth rate was,
but Intelligent Cloud, right? That's really everything that we've been talking about. they split it up and how they put their, what their growth rate was, but intelligent
cloud, right?
That's really everything that we've been talking about.
Increased 19%.
Isn't that low for Microsoft?
I thought it was much higher.
And then they split it further.
Server products and cloud services revenue by 21%, driven by Azure, and other cloud services revenue by 31%.
I'm guessing other cloud services revenue is possibly their co-pilot related stuff,
AI related stuff.
I'm just guessing that because of the higher growth there.
But again, 31% is not much of a growth from a small base for its size. So I'm just trying to
understand these numbers in context, right? It's going to take time. There's so much data here,
it's going to take time. But look, backing up a little bit, right? There are more than enough
data out there now that there is behind the scenes backpedaling on all sides
going on. It's not just that, you know, you see actual reports of rumors of this being circulated,
but companies are starting to, you know, put more details together that tells you that, hey,
you know, something is being agreed on. A quick example today um airbus said that their uh their their
shortage of uh of of boeing engines sorry of ge engines is going to end in in in second half of
the year they expect the problem to last a little longer for another quarter and then it to go away
they're hearing something.
This is just one.
There's dozens of these.
I just picked that one because it's a big number in trade between the countries.
But there are dozens of these instances, right, that we seem to be, you know,
backpedaling quietly, which is, I think, the way it should be on the trade issues.
So I think the more we keep hearing these, the less relevant the need for an actual deal becomes
because we have essentially dealt away the need for a deal.
So I think the market is picking up on that and i think
that's why you saw you know strength in the market today even before these results
and you know when when we get the update today from else i will update but this is this is pretty
seriously good i mean we're probably you know uh based on, you know, just up to today, we probably, you know, at 20% earnings growth.
And if we extrapolate it to the end of the, you know, the season, we're probably looking at something in the 11.5 to 12% range, which puts us in the ballpark of how we've been doing in the last couple of quarters.
which puts us in the ballpark of how we've been doing in the last couple of quarters.
We've got a massive amount of unlock and buybacks already,
and it's going to double or triple over in the next two weeks
with the likes of Microsoft and Meta and Google adding to the mix.
So by the end of the month, you have a lot of positives,
and really no company has come out and you know scream murder
yet on on on the you know on the trade issues whether they are privately being told what to do
i i don't know but but but based on what we know today officially no company has come out and said
that yeah it's it's the end of the world, right? That's not happened.
And neither their results backward looking nor their guidance forward looking
is all that terrible yet.
So I think the market is certainly having to react to that.
And the fact that all these little news clips leaking out of potential agreements or handshakes or whatever you call it, right?
No deal deals that we've been doing seem to be, you know, giving enough of confidence that things are being worked out behind the scenes by, you know,
people that actually have to deal with this on a daily basis which is part of their life not the politicians but rather the you know the people
that execute these trade deals so anyway that's that's my take um i'll look through the details
it's going to take me time i i need to understand uh what i'm comparing it to because i i caught up
a little bit late today.
But everything that looks so far, right?
I mean, also one other thing I want to add is, you know,
no CapEx, you know, pullbacks so far, right?
They're not really doubling down, but they're marginally increasing it.
So, you know, we have to rethink some of the things that we've sold off and think of some of the things that have, you know, sold off hard across the board, I'll say it again today. The results, as much as they're backward looking,
and the guidance is better than any of the worst case
scenarios we're expecting.
So that's a positive.
I still find this meta increase in capex spend
to be very interesting.
And I don't know if we were really expecting that.
So did Google, right?
So these are massive spends,
and they are just saying that they have the confidence to spend it.
I don't know, again, right?
They could change it next quarter,
but so far they're sticking to the plan, which...
You know, I will say the fact that they increased it today i would think they would
maintain it next quarter as opposed to lowering it back down if they were going to feel differently
maybe i'm wrong maybe they would they would react very quickly well there is you know there certainly
is more availability of of hardware now which was not the case a year ago so you know maybe they're
doing catch up right remember last few quarters they've
not been spending as much as they expected to spend so maybe this is all all it is is a catch-up right
and the fact that you know maybe labor that that that is involved is involved in the demand, in building out capacity, which was probably all booked out, maybe the farther end of that is loosening up and maybe they're getting a break on costs.
I don't know.
I'm just assuming that's something. Do you think the pull forward and demand from anticipation of tariffs combined with the inherent lag in the impact of tariffs is making us whistle past the graveyard here in Q1?
Very possible for consumer discretionary and certainly to some extent possible for consumer staples, but not for capital goods.
These are not decisions that people make in a short period of time.
These are all longer term plans.
So nobody is going to hoard something unless it's a China situation where they're going to be blocked from buying it for good.
So I certainly think that's a problem for consumer discretionary, but not for anything else.
Maybe autos, some of those, where the decision was right around the corner, they brought it forward.
So it might have just fallen in one quarter versus the next.
So there's a little bit of that,
but that can be explained away in a conference call.
What cannot be explained away is real things
like missing deliveries, right?
Which is why you saw where they could not get around it
aerospace and defense is a good place
where they're probably the only industry
to actually call out cost impact
of tariffs
everyone is actually quantifying that
because for them missing 2 or 3 or 4 planes
and 50 engines.
To that point, are they quantifying it?
Yeah.
Boeing said 500 million.
Raytheon said 850 million.
Honeywell said 300 million.
So they are quantifying it.
Yeah, I mean, I feel like those estimates have to be.
It's a swag.
Yeah.
It's a swag yeah it's a swag but but but what happens is if the delivery period slips it
might actually fall in a different year right remember almost all of these is just assemblies
right everybody makes them based on what has been taken up for production by the airframer, right?
Like Boeing and Airbus tell them, hey, we are going to produce, you know, 38 737s this month.
And they start, or six months from now, they start building engines.
They start building control systems.
They start building, you know, power units, they start building,
you know, cockpit systems, all of that based on the guidance coming from the air framer,
right, in this case. So if those estimates slip, right, like, for example, if China slips
or refuses to take delivery, it'll take three months for Boeing to bring back what
is shipped to their Asia offices, repaint it before they bring it back.
So Honeywell can't recognize revenue until the customer gets delivery.
Raytheon cannot recognize revenue.
GE cannot recognize revenue.
That's how it works, right? The customer has to sign off before any of them
can recognize revenue. They've incurred the costs already, they've spent all their money, and they've sent
the product out. So there is some part of that adjustment
that's already in play, and there is some
of it that is based on guidance they're getting from the Airframer.
But, you know it
also changes fast right like after these results you're already seeing reports that boeing is going
to expand production so you could see a whole spate of uh uh guidance upgrades next quarter
across the board not just not just from bo, but from everybody that supplies to Boeing.
And Airbus has said the same thing today.
So all of this could change in an instant,
but there are some immediate costs,
there are some midterm costs,
and then they're just swagging long-term costs.
Yeah, I guess my overarching concern is not that companies are adjusting to this or attempting to estimate.
They are.
And like you mentioned, for capital goods, you should be seeing an impact right now, right? Like we should be seeing companies adjusting CapEx guidance to the downside or pausing CapEx guidance.
We haven't seen a tremendous amount of that.
So yes, from that end, I agree with you.
My only concern is just that we tend to do this every time where there is an economic slowdown,
where there is an economic slowdown,
where we, you know, in the early stages,
there's not enough data to shift the weight of opinion.
And so everyone sort of whistles past the graveyard.
And then, you know, a quarter later, two quarters later,
the data falls off a cliff and everyone's like,
what the fuck happened?
And that's just the way it goes, right?
I mean, that's also a function of how we incentivize these companies, right?
We're all, Wall Street has trained everybody to look only a quarter out.
What is the incentive for them to tell you what's going to happen a year out
when all they know is a quarter, it's not too bad,
there's a good chance they can bring it in.
there's a good chance they can bring it in?
So, you know, there are so many bonuses
and individual options and crap tied to that,
tied to pulling that off and saying that
and keeping up their, you know,
pretenses that things are okay
till it actually breaks, right?
So that's also, unfortunately, the system we're set up,
which is why European companies tend to look terrible
because, you know
many of them report every twice a year many of them you know are so conservative that you know
their boards will take them to task you know they they are they are incentivized on a lot more than
asian companies and and and chinese companies also to some extent though you know i don't want to get
into the you know whether they're clean want to get into the, you know,
whether they're clean financials or not, we all know that.
But it's a good example to look at, you know, European companies
where, you know, they will appear to be, you know,
suffering a lot more than they eventually end up suffering
because, you know, they decided that, you know, this was a risk
and they had to show it and their boards and their packages demand that they work that
way.
And we are just set up very differently.
So, but I think, but I think we'll'll we'll start getting deals i mean i i'm still i don't think we have a
desperation for a deal as much as we had two weeks ago but i think the curiosity of what is in a deal
will tell us whether all these rumors are start to are starting to be true in the sense you know
the deal is what's that you mean a deal as in a trade deal yeah yeah
yeah you know whether these things seem to have been agreed to earlier and they're just now
formalizing it right so so it does look like a lot of things that that that that like you know
whether it's aerospace and defense or you knowctors, right? Like we clearly saw none of the semi-caps outside of ASML really took down their guidance.
Now, we know that, you know, somewhere between 30 and 40% of their revenue comes from China.
They cannot have not taken that into account unless they're hearing something different.
Well, I mean, the exemptions, right?
Yeah, exactly. That's my
point, right?
They are hearing something from the
administration on either side
telling them to continue to do what they're
doing, or
they're being told not
to report bad news. No, I don't want
to be that negative and think that's possible. So I'll just assume that they're being told not to report bad news. No, I don't want to be that negative and think that's possible.
So I'll just assume that they're being told that their business can continue.
Yeah, I'm starting to get that impression too on a micro basis
that individual CEOs have talked to the president.
I don't know if you saw the story, the Walmart story monitor,
but it was a couple of days ago. I think Evanan tweeted about it i know some people tweeted about it i
didn't but i read it a couple days ago that walmart told some of its chinese suppliers to go ahead
and send the goods and the like implication in the story was that the walmart ceo was told
implication in the story was that
the Walmart CEO was told
that the necessary
exemptions would be put in place.
I mean, that hasn't been
said explicitly by the White House,
right? Yeah, I don't doubt that
for a second.
Yeah, it's like, do we really
think, because Walmart, Target,
Home Depot CEOs all went to the White House,
right? And for people that know
Trump, he's pretty responsive to for people that know Trump, like he's
pretty responsive to powerful people that bend the knee. Like he just is. He always has been.
And most politicians are. I'm not implying that Trump is unique in this. Most politicians,
when a powerful person comes to them and shows deference, they like it. It's good for their egos. It makes them look influential and powerful.
And so all of these CEOs, GM, Ford, Amazon, Target, Home Depot, who else? Obviously,
the big tech guys, those all donated a million bucks plus. That's 10 to 12 major, major multi
hundred billion or multiillion dollar American companies whose
CEOs have directly gone to the president, and depending on which story you believe,
whether it's the Wall Street Journal story on this, Reuters story on this, Bloomberg story on this,
pretty much every major financial media outlet has tweeted in one way, shape, or form about these
private meetings at the White House.
If you believe any of them, what has been communicated by these CEOs to President Trump is you're going to hurt American businesses.
And the first of these meetings preceded the 90-day pause.
It was like four days after the first meeting, we got that 90-day pause.
Also happened to be the first day of the tariffs going into effect.
But that might just be a coincidence.
Who knows?
But we got that pause after that.
He mentioned and cited in his discussions about the pause in an interview that his conversations with CEOs were a part of that, you know, and that he wanted to go easy on them.
And the same thing with the automaker exemptions and relief that was announced.
Right. The same thing was said that the automakers called the White House and talked to the White House and expressed their concerns.
So, yeah, I'm also starting to your point earlier.
I'm also starting to lean in the direction of like, you know, maybe this is done on a very specific basis
with very specific exemptions.
And depending on how that's executed, you could end up skirting the financial impact
for a lot of major American companies.
And if that is done successfully, then that'll be a win in what has been a very, very messy
and haphazard policy.
So, yeah, exactly. a win in what has been a very very messy and haphazard policy so yeah exactly so so i think the market needs to start pricing for a reminder tariff rather than a remainder tariff rather than
cessation of trade right that's that's i that's what i think the difference is now
so so if we price that then the multiples look very different right
i agree yeah i think that's a good way to look at the spectrum like
you know effective embargo between the united states and china global slowdown in trade
global recession that's like your highest risk scenario and then middle of the road you have 90-day pause holds
base case on tariffs is much better at the end of the 90-day pause and in the best case scenario
you see a slurry of deals announced very quickly and we end up with a very very you know similar
trade environment from a numbers standpoint by the end of this
that we did prior.
So, yeah, I think there's, like you said, those big three outcomes.
And, yeah, I just don't know where we are on the spectrum of possibility for those outcomes
yet right now, because it's hard for me to get a read.
And I consider myself pretty decent at getting a read on this kind of stuff. But it's really hard for me to get a read on if Trump actually wants to negotiate or actually wants the tariffs in place at this juncture. that this is effectively a negotiating tool, albeit a sloppy one,
that is going to resolve into much lower tariffs.
But now I'm kind of sitting there listening to his interviews
and looking at his posts, and I'm like,
am I right to call the bluff here?
Is the market right to call the bluff here?
Are some of these CEOs who are reiterating guidance, are they like, I get that it's just one big bluff call across the board.
But is it the right bluff call?
That's where I'm starting to see a little bit of hesitance, at least personally, because his statements aren't giving me confidence that he views these as a tool.
me confidence that like he views these as a tool his statements to me at least recently have implied
that he views these as an order shift you know uh like a shift in the way of doing things globally
and if that's true and these hold for four years then you know i think the consequences of that are pretty terrible.
Yeah. I also think we need to turn our attention back to where,
what his stated goal has been right outside of this trade mess.
He's been calling for interest rates to come down. Right. So, so, you know,
when we clear away all the noise, we just need to figure out, Hey,
is there data tracking to get that? And that's where we get more and more noise.
And the trade situation sort of takes a backdoor for most part in the sense, you know,
we're still going to have, you know, a very confrontational, you know, overt confrontational approach to trade negotiation, but behind the scenes, there's somebody on each side quieting things down and actually getting things signed.
But again, today's data was not particularly great for anything the Fed would, getting the Fed back into cuts.
anything the Fed would, you know, getting the Fed back into cuts.
Though I still think that Joel's data is a stupid marker,
and I think we are far, far weaker in employment than in hiring
than the Joles would have you believe.
I think they're probably less than a third of those positions,
if that best case scenario.
A third of those 2 million positions or 7 million positions rather
are being actively hired.
So I think we have to turn our attention
back to, you know,
watching where the Fed takes the rates
so much, much more so than,
you know, whether we're going to have
a complete breakdown of trade.
I think that's what's going to happen.
Quick call out here. trump is delivering remarks on
investing in america right now and in two minutes the uh hood and meta calls will begin
speaking of i do gotta get on to robin hed during his call I think I'm gonna ask about the
new features they added during the last month and how the uptake is appreciate you all though if you
guys are already following the speakers you were completely missing out stuck in the elevator again
you were completely missing out.
Sock Chalk in the elevator again?
Let's see if I get Sock Chalk back up here.
We'll probably close this out.
I know a lot of us are going to be listening to those earnings calls.
Big shout out to Earnings Hub, of course.
You can listen to all the calls live on Earnings Hub.
I'm going to listen live to the third one,
and then I will check the probably meta one
if i get a chance i'll probably go back to the ai summary on that one microsoft's is at 5 30
uh eastern this afternoon uh stock talk get any uh before you go before you go I just pulled up. So consecutive quarter numbers,
there is a slowdown in Cloud for Microsoft.
So it was 20 percent in Q1,
it was 20 percent then within that Cloud and
server product and Cloud services was 23,
and other Cloud services was 33.
And now it is 19, 21, and 31.
So there's definitely another slowdown there.
I don't know whether there's a difference with respect to the guide,
but this is also consistent so far that large companies are reporting a slight slowdown in cloud uptake and cloud growth rates.
This is more visible consecutive quarters
than year over year.
there's stock talk
yeah can you hear me
yes sir
yeah I'm walking Leo but
it's not windy so
she's still able to hear me
did you ask me something
no I was gonna get close to some wrap-ups here,
but Monitif had a comment there.
I don't know if you heard it.
No, I didn't.
No, I was just saying that consecutive quarter in Microsoft,
I was looking for this, so I had to pull up the old numbers
and open it page by page to compare. consecutive quarter in microsoft i i was looking for this so i had to pull up the old numbers and
open it page by page to compare so consecutive quarters from q1 to q2 there is a there is a
deceleration in cloud across the board right they break it down so it's a couple of percentage
points a couple it's a 100 to 200 basis points how based on which part of it you look at slow down in the cloud right so so microsoft
has gone down from headline number on the cloud was uh 20 last quarter to 21 or sorry 19 this
quarter so so there is a little bit of slowdown and that's starting to look consistent across the
across the industry we love to to see how Amazon plays out.
So, which, you know, you and I have talked
about this multiple times.
I think you're gonna start seeing that AWS growth rates
catch up with the others just because, you know,
they've been reporting cleaner growth rates
that are purely cloud rather than mixed in businesses.
Yeah, and they have less growth based on incremental customers too,
compared to Google and their competitors.
So yeah, I agree with that.
I mean, yeah, once you start seeing a slowdown
in like non-tariff related industries,
that's when we have a problem.
Once you start seeing a broad slowdown
in multiple non-tariff related industries, then we can start talking about an economy that could be in trouble.
I think we're in a good spot here.
I know a lot of people are probably turning on these calls right now, so we'll go ahead and wrap it up.
Stock talk, any parting words of wisdom?
No, not really.
We talked plenty.
We'll see you guys.
We'll see you guys tomorrow.
Yeah, tomorrow.
And hopefully we'll have a nice day in the markets tomorrow.
Take it easy.
Will it hold?
Yeah, will it hold?
That's going to be the question, right?
I mean, the best case scenario would be not only that it holds,
but that we push through the 200-day tomorrow, which is a possibility.
If you get a big move or push into it, at least that'd be an ideal move for
bulls, but who knows?
That would be a two and a half percent move from where we're at right now.
This market, that's not crazy.
It's not crazy.
Yeah, it really isn't a lot.
There is a lot of overhead resistance around that area.
So we'll see what happens.
You know, I would love to see this thing just continue up overnight with constant buying. But we'll have to see what happens. Of
course, appreciate your stock talk. Monitive, thanks to you as well. Urkel, Wolfie, Logical,
hanging out with the Stock Sniper. We had several others on here earlier. Make sure you give all
these panelists a follow. Check out all of their content across this platform. And we appreciate
everyone for tuning
in these uh earnings calls are live i'm uh got it playing in the background right now so i'm
going to jump over and listen to those we will see you guys tomorrow afternoon same time same
place and we'll see if uh we're able to maintain this rally a little bit here take care everyone
hope you have a great rest of your Wednesday evening. Thank you.
