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Midweek Market Update
Recorded: March 26, 2025 Duration: 1:00:15Space Recording
Short Summary
The discussion highlights Hashtack's partnership with NASDAQ to create a new crypto index, NCIQ, which aims to provide a structured way to invest in the crypto market, similar to traditional stock indices. This represents a significant innovation in the crypto space, offering new benchmarks and investment opportunities.
Full Transcription
what is up everyone welcome to the midweek market update new show that we're doing i've got my friend
knots up here with me bull trade finder knots with uh
It's great to have you. I think we've got KC coming in as well with a new show, a new midweek market update that we want to do.
I've got a couple great traders and friends of mine up here on stage with me.
What we're going to do is we're going to just go over our thoughts, kind of look at the big picture of things, you know, see what's changed.
I know a lot of people do some market looks on the weekend.
CCs are already showing us some stuff over there.
Look at that.
Boom. It's reverse. There he is. Look at that smiling face.
But yeah, I'm excited for this show. Hashtack, shout out to them. They are sponsoring us.
They did create a basically like we have a NASDAQ. They're creating exchange for crypto where we can actually invest into some crypto stuff.
We'll talk about them a little bit later. But I want to start this off and just look at some high level thoughts right here.
I've got the daily chart here on QQQ.
And you can see we built a nice base down here.
I've got lines all over my chart.
But let's just hide those.
Let me hide the drawings real fast.
And this is your 20 day in green, your 50 day up here in orange, and your 200 day moving
average.
We did tap this in after hours last night, and you can see a pretty ugly rejection here.
Do we hold this 20 day right here at the low?
That's going to be interesting, kind of the highs of these last couple weeks as well.
Spy, pretty similar, actually.
This little, Casey, what do you call these little guys?
What do you call this candle right here?
That top one's a doji candle.
When you combine the big body left candle
and the big body red candle on the right,
those three combined is called an evening star,
which is what you wanna see at the top
of a big uptrend movement for a bear's reversal downside,
which is what I am currently playing on spot.
Yeah, we saw this kind of starting to set up yesterday.
It held the 200 day and then as soon as it lost that today,
I mean, it was a, it was hammer short for sure.
For sure. So it'll be interesting to see. Do we fill this gap? Gap fill Thursday?
Oh, yes, sir. Yes, sir. Indeed.
A little gap fill Thursday down here? Let's see. Let's draw that out a little bit.
Look at that. Big old gap to fill to the downside. That ticks us down to like 564, 565, we'll call it.
565. That's a...
That's an interesting one there for sure.
Yeah, so I kind of want to get to you guys' thoughts on just where we're at, what we've been doing in the market.
Nott's, if you want to jump in first, I want to hear kind of what you're seeing just from the top down.
Like, what's the big picture look like to you as we've moved down and pop back up a little bit here?
I mean, is this is this the dead cat now?
I mean, maybe we don't know.
There's a lot of uncertainty out there,
but I'd love to get your thoughts just around the market in general right now,
where we're at on the daily and weekly type of view.
Yeah, so daily, like Casey was saying, you know, we have an evening star, evening Doji Star forming on Spy, you know, very possible that we can see more downside.
I mean, you look at it over the past few days, whether it's Q's or whether it's Spy.
Obviously, we had a nice little, you know, bounce for Spy, 25 bucks bounce.
Spy and Q's were in that 10% correction mark.
And right after we hit that on Spy, as that was the second one to kind of lead into it, we started to get this bounce.
It seems like we are starting to now hit a possible resistance area with the possibility of even testing lower.
Um, so my thought process is kind of plain short.
I have a swing for just about a week out or until next Friday for spy puts.
They're up 20% currently.
Um, I got them a little late into the day today, um, but on a bounce.
So worked out decently nice that I was able to get at least a better entry.
Um, and currently right now, I actually have a very, very small short that I look to add
to unless I don't get the possibility to.
at that 90MA on a smaller time frame at the two minute at around 200 that I got on MNQ.
So futures wise, I'm short and on options for a swing.
I'm short.
Yeah, it just, it definitely looks like today's kind of confirming it.
Now the question, I guess after this, I do think we come down and probably fill this gap, right?
It may take a few days to do that, but do we get a higher low here?
Do we maybe, you know, maybe do something like this?
fill the gap and maybe higher low off of this.
It was that Thursday to Friday, very possibly, right?
And then maybe we come up here to continue.
Or if we fell that, if we fell this kind of area,
I mean, that looks bad.
It looks like we're going to go test those loads again.
I don't know. Casey, what are your thoughts?
We're going down, down, and-na-na-da-da-da.
So...
So, I mean...
So, I mean...
Yeah.
So what you drew on your chart right there is the exact same chart that I sent this morning before the market even opened up.
We talked about on live spaces this morning and...
It was a beautiful risk of reward setup to go short.
And then if the short played out, it would set up for an even larger short on the larger time frame.
So that evening star that you actually see here on Spy Daily, if you go to Spy on the five minute time frame today,
You'll see an evening star at the top of the chart from hitting yesterday's high, where it lined up perfectly with yesterday's high resistance.
So you'll see Spy on the five minute at the top there has a big red candle right out of the gate this morning.
It has a doji candle in the middle and the big red candle on the right side.
You combine those three together. What do you get at the top? An evening star, bearish reversal.
So the five minutes started the downtrend.
The hourly was a squeeze that broke the trend line under 575.
And then it just played out to the downside, which now is setting up the evening star on the daily.
It was a trick, it was just like a perfect ripple effect, right?
From the five minutes to the one hour to the daily, all three were setting up to short and confirm the next leg down on the larger time frames for this move.
And this is what I charted out pre-market.
I shorted spy within the first three minutes of the day.
And I added to the puts at the evening star and scaled out,
exited a little bit earlier than I wanted.
But I'm building a 5K challenge count right now,
so trying to compound games.
But those puts just went 100%.
And I'm looking for that gap fill.
I think we do see continuation down to 570, 56950.
The puts I had were 570s.
And I'm looking to still go short tomorrow on Spy for that move lower.
Yeah, I actually joined in. I was watching, I was more on the NQ side of things.
I was watching the Spy chart as well. InQ didn't even touch that previous days high, but I thought it might wick back up here a little bit and then reject.
So I was I was short overnight. I was covering most of it into this. And when this happened, the rest of my runners, but I was going to add.
I was going to add to a short I'd already trimmed out of because I saw this like set up in the morning. I saw what Spy was doing.
And if you look right here, this previous day is low.
Once we did break all the way down, we got that first hour and then it kind of just made this little bare flag.
And so like what I saw was previous day low, rejecting right in this area multiple times, multiple rejections here.
And then also if you just like, you know, you kind of just draw this out, it was pretty, pretty rough looking right here in a in a bear flag type of setup.
it just looked like boom you know here i'll draw the i'll draw the flagpole for people that want the
full vigil but i mean that that and if this is your trigger i mean i was shorting against previous
days low here back test i mean you look at where it held many times i mean and this wasn't
just like previous days low i mean you look at this how many times that we support here yesterday
previous case is one of the best i've ever you know spoke to that does this previous support becomes resistance right when you flip these srs this was i mean as clear as an sr flip as possible these you could draw a whole box here let me do that real fast for the visual too um but this whole area that was like previous days lows i mean just look at that
Even if you drew a zone, all these lows from yesterday and then today, once you broke through that, you came back and back tested it perfectly right here.
I mean, goodness gracious.
That felt like a layup trade on that short, and I was convicted.
We talked about the data.
Me and Casey were on with Andre from Edgeville.
We talked about the data a little bit.
But, yeah, that was...
That was a nice trade and a nice spot.
Not to you do anything this morning?
What trades have you been on?
Yeah.
Sadly, I mean, I've only actually attacked some future trades.
The sad part about that is when I set my limit orders, they only attacked my very small amounts.
All the trades worked out perfectly. All of them were 25 point plus shorts.
Um, but yeah, sadly enough, I just did not get what I fully wanted in my position size.
But again, can't complain.
I'm doing for the day.
And as we stay under the VWAP and stand under the 9 and 21, I'm going to continue
to look short.
But sooner or later throughout the day, if we push lower, we have the 9 EMA on the daily
on spy and cues just below us here, about a dollar each way on spying cues.
I would look to see if we hold that and try to support it and then look for a bounce play.
Yeah, I mean, we are starting to get a little overcooked towards the downside.
We're down, what, almost 1% on Spy and 1⁄2 on QQ.
Boy, nothing just looks great right now.
Look at this waterfall in AMD.
I was looking around some of these other names.
That is an upsetting one for me because I wanted to short it.
I had a level at 11530 when it broke under it.
Right at the open. So it broke over it at the open, rejected, had a higher wick, and then broke under it. I was going to look to short and I did not do it.
And one thing, you know how recently, while everything was kind of looking weak, you had banks that were kind of holding up, right?
Yeah.
both on the daily.
Tell me what you see and you'll see probably why on why now I'm swinging the bank short.
So now if we needed the market.
extra MoMo tomorrow for Spy to fill the gap down to 565,
the leading sector that can help do that now
would be the previous strongest sector,
which will now flip week, which will be the banks.
Yeah, so here's XLF.
This is like your bank ETF.
I've been watching this too because they have been stronger,
but you look at this, I mean,
anybody that just eyeballs this, you see this like tightening wedge here, rising wedge, right?
That at some point in a lot of green, a lot of big move without any real pullbacks.
I mean, you think this has got to pull back at some point as well.
And you go to some of the individual names.
I mean, these were green this morning, by the way.
Look at this.
There's the not special right there.
A little hangman at the top on the daily.
And then, yeah, it wicked up hard this morning.
But that Wells Fargo, which has been one of our strongest players,
this is going to be an ugly candle if the daily closes down here.
And look, if you combine those three candles right there on the daily,
look what that looks like.
Yeah, it looks like a straight up reversal.
Let me get that to look back up here.
There you go.
Yeah.
Yeah.
Same thing with the big up with the liquidity grab of the upside.
I mean, I think you're looking to fill this gap too.
Yep.
Like that bottom shelf 20 day?
Yep.
Are we swinging Wells Fargo short?
Is that what we're doing now?
I'm in, I mean, I'm, JPM's been stronger, but Morgan Stanley and Bank of America.
I have puts right now on both.
Look, this is a kind of a little island top here.
It looks like setting up on JPM.
It doesn't have to be, but I mean, at least in the short time,
at least come back down to the previous day's close.
It's one of the only banks still green today.
Look at that.
That was a beautiful move off the 200 day, though.
A little fake below it, reclaim it, and go.
Actually...
That should, that's a mistrash.
I should have been long JPM off of this move.
Those banks have been strong, but I did.
I'm looking around.
I took all the banks long for that move
and now we're at the resistance.
I remember saying that.
Yeah, I took JPM, Morgan Stanley,
and Bank of America for this move upside.
And now I'm flipping short and taking them back down.
Well, I do want to kind of get into some tickers that you guys are watching.
But before we do that, on the bigger, you know, we hit QQQ and Spy pretty closely.
If we, you know, if I look at these on the daily chart, I just think we're going to come back down.
This fib right here is just your basic fib retracement from the high to the recent low we made.
We basically got up to that 382 on Spy.
It looked a little bit better.
Did I hide that?
Where did it go?
There we go. There it is.
Because it looked like yesterday, this is why I stayed long yesterday because I was like, okay, we have the Fib support and the 200 day right here as confluence at the low of day.
So I was like, plus I had some date on my side.
So I stayed long through the day.
But then look at this.
We're sitting on the gap right here on spy.
This may get ugly today.
Very possible.
Just made a new low on QGQ.
Especially we break.
That was not that the 90 May on the daily for again, spy and Q's.
We are.
For Spy, it's $1.13.
And for Q's, it is much closer.
It is only 70 cents from here.
But there's a 21 right there.
And we were also holding that yesterday,
fell to hold and get back over it on the daily time frame.
Yeah, that's pretty wild.
Goodness gracious.
There's my 233, by the way, right there on the daily.
Okay.
And it's been right here, resistance.
Does it turn into support maybe?
But yeah, that's an ugly.
This is an ugly look right now, to be 100% honest.
Just across the board on, at least in the short term, right?
I mean, this could be just your pullback to this support level.
478 maybe on QQ, Spy back down to fill this gap.
Look at your volume shelf, 560.
So maybe we get the balance here and hold off of this value, but
But I don't know, if this comes into this and breaks through this, like, I think we're going to go take out these lows.
But if it holds here, then I'll have to play a bounce back to this area and kind of let things set back up a little bit.
IWM. I don't know how much you guys look at small caps.
I know Casey will trade this from time to time.
Not so you trade IWM much?
I do trade IWM, but not as much as I used to.
So, yeah.
Yeah.
Because I mean, this chart just still looks terrible, but it's been so beat up.
You know, at some point, like if we go to like a weekly view on some of this at some point,
you think like, okay, maybe it bases around here.
This is a 200 week moving average.
I mean, how many times do you even get that?
I mean, look, every other time it's bounced off of that,
we bounced off of it here.
Do we maybe base and move back up?
Maybe IWM has some value play to that on the big picture.
I don't know.
What do you think, Nats, you interested in it at all?
I'm I still think we need lower rates,
but until we find something out,
So weekly 200 is at 199 88. Let's just say 200. I don't know. I mean, it's not something I follow as much as I used to. I don't like, again, like you said, rates are higher. They've kind of stepped back a tiny bit on when they're going to cut them. And that would be good for the smaller cap names, you know, for IWM as a whole.
you know if we do break that 200 and start to see some downside under that you know it obviously looks
weaker um with that said you know something like amd um we broke the 200 on that on the weekly
weeks ago we actually funny enough um they brought up the 200 on the weekly we actually tapped it
today and that's where we rejected oh wow yeah look at that or right there at the top yeah
Yeah, we tapped it today or yesterday.
Weekly candle.
I don't we stuff two days left.
This looks, yeah.
But yeah, IWM, I don't know.
I mean, it's going to follow the market.
If the market tends to push down, you know, IWM is going to follow the same type of suit there.
So kind of seeing what happens, especially if there's more tariff news, especially if, you know, there's any more decisions or just.
There's no decision right now currently.
We just passed FMC, but if there's any more talk on possible cuts and or no cuts going forward.
So IWM is just going to take a brunt of it with what is happening in the broader markets.
Yeah, so that'll be interesting to watch. I mean, obviously you need some type of catalysts over there to help them out. But they're so beating up. You almost think like regional banks will probably be like KRE will probably be something that I look to to trade and belong on once we kind of get some type of signal. I was looking at the Dow here and.
And the Dow has actually been stronger than pretty much every.
I mean, you look at the Dow's pullback and bounce has been a little bit stronger.
I know this is this is kind of like an M that kind of played out already.
And the Dow names have actually been pretty strong.
Have you looked at any of these?
I mean, Home Depot has been absolutely brutalized, but that's more of like the,
it's more of like the consumer side of things, right?
But when I look at like John Deere, who is John Deere chart?
John Deere.
Yeah.
above the above the 20 and 50 day consolidating up here holding in look the whole market's
been pulled back like this and look at this holding in i mean nothing runs like a deer right
i mean this reality if you look at it on like the daily look at it in over a three months span i
mean it's kind of flagging up here obviously yes it did come down a little bit with the market
but it has held its own like you said
I am looking at this from a weekly perspective.
This is like a, what, three-year consolidation that it's breaking out of?
Let's see.
I actually like this.
I mean, look, we got up here, and this was April of 21.
This is like four years ago.
It's set here from April until when.
It really broke out last November.
That's a three-year base that we have here at this 380 to 400 area.
And it's in an active breakout here on the weekly.
I actually really like this chart on John Deere.
It does look really good.
Maybe some of these Dowell names will be interesting.
There's the weekly on Caterpillar.
Once again, not near as far of a pullback as you see.
Let me go back to the daily look.
Not as bad as a pullback.
It was kind of already pulling back, but it's not quite as bad.
Now it is way under the 200 day.
But you see the market's been pulling down.
It's been hanging out up here.
That's...
Not a bad look there.
GE is another one that's been on my watch list.
GE, look at this.
E's actually right at high.
Is that a new all time height?
New all time high today on GE.
Now, maybe not.
an immediate long as you see this candle.
It's like it's going to be a bearish, bearish and go.
Maybe we short GE back down to here.
Yeah.
KC is already loading this up.
That daily on GE is like a shooting star forming right there.
So definitely something to watch to see if it pulls back.
But yeah, I mean, right at highs there.
That has, I mean, it fell down with the market as you can see over the past few weeks,
but it instantly rebound and actually was green during the market fall too.
Kind of like this actually for a short, just three.
If you use the strat, this is a three bar down.
This is, you know, bearish engulfing.
This is probably a swing short.
Maybe like back to 200 or 205 or something like that.
I guess he's looking at it right now.
Are you loading it up?
I'm looking at some contracts.
Casey's already looking at contracts right now.
That's a decent idea.
But yeah, I mean, we hit QQQ, we hit Spy, we hit IWM.
I wanted to hit some of these down names because I feel like people don't talk about
some of these names that much, but some of these names, I mean, like GE making a new all-time
high today in a down market when the overall market's down, you know, off of highs 10% or
whatever, it's, that's relative strengths for sure.
Now, is it a flight to safety name?
I don't really think so.
I mean, it's got GE, I think.
has that type of narrative and boost behind it,
aerospace, everything that they're doing,
the AI is going to help them a lot.
I actually like this chart a lot.
i do want to hit um not so they're sending out gpuds right now i actually just did i got it to
g uh april 17 so a month out or not at this point is a month out three weeks out um
205 puds because i do think we have a possibility to get back into that 90 in may
by the time it probably does it it it's currently 20587 by the time it probably does it like
206 15 20
possibility for even lower at the 21 EMA on the daily around 203.
So I do like that for a short there.
Thank you for bringing that up to me, something I would not have looked at, to be honest.
Yeah, that's awesome.
Well, that's what I love these, especially midweek.
We get in this lunch period.
You see the markets are literally gone sideways since we've, like, look, if we go back to the, go back to the chart.
We went live right here.
We haven't gone anywhere, right?
Yeah.
It's just consolidating.
We just made that next leg down.
Lunchtime.
Maybe you get a counter-chinned rally here during the launch hour.
But that's kind of why we scheduled this for the launch hour, because things do slow down.
And we can maybe find, like, in the middle of the week instead of, you know, a lot of people try on Sunday nights.
And that's a great way to do it as well.
But I thought maybe we should do a midweek show.
Notts.
I want to get your thoughts.
Yeah.
over on crypto land and i've got some things already drawn on here um it looks pretty pretty
rough to me yeah so it actually let me by the way when you bring that back up i have something to
already talk about all right first thing i'm going to do i want to click on this right here this
this is wycoff distribution um and i make this bigger
All right, there we go.
So Wyckoff has been around forever, right?
And you see price goes up, bounces around, slightly new high, comes around, and then falls off.
That's typical Yikoff.
Now, when you look at that knots and Casey, if you're looking at it too, look at this right here.
And then tell me this isn't the same high, come back down, new high, come back down, and fall off.
Is it not the same picture?
In that regard, it basically is.
I mean, I was going to bring up that, you know, you could also kind of look at it as an inverted cup and handle.
Oh, yeah, for sure.
Possibly have the handle where you had the drawings a few moments ago.
But yeah, that, you know, that doesn't look that good to me.
Um, and when I'm not good with the cycle stuff.
And I don't know if you are either.
But when is the cycle supposed to end?
You know, that every four year thing.
So it just was the having was last April.
And so we're just like a year into the cycle.
But dude, that is that what you're talking about?
Yeah, yeah.
Something like that.
Yeah.
Exactly.
I mean, goodness gracious.
I mean.
That, I mean, that, I don't know, that part looks bad.
And then have you seen the weekly on this?
And I know like you guys know a lot of chart patterns and stuff.
I didn't mean to go to monthly.
Hold on.
Let me go to weekly.
Look at this weekly.
When you get three green candles inside of a big red bar.
And it's coming right into the 9 and 21 if you want to use, you know,
EMAs on that.
Yeah, there's your weekly 21 right.
And 90,000.
That's interesting.
Okay.
Okay.
So it's over the 21 on the daily, but you did have, and we just had this, the pump,
but it happened yesterday that failed was based on that GME news.
Now, if it got back up here to the 20 day, I mean the 50 day, I'm sorry, 50 day up here,
right at 90K.
I mean, I feel like that could be a decent shot at it, but I just see this like bear flag
setup, just like rising wedge.
I mean...
This right here looks ugly as can be like it's going to break.
This just looks like a bear flag.
Yeah.
My son is screaming bear flag.
If you hear him in the background there.
he's just screaming bear flag.
But no,
I see that.
And the thing is like,
I don't want to be like super bearish on everything here,
but at least in the short term,
like I'm seeing between that white cough,
between that weekly.
Yeah.
The weekly looks like a high probability of downside.
I mean,
let me.
take these off here. Actually, I could probably draw this on the weekly, too, as a bear flag.
Yeah. So, I mean, I don't know, there's just been so much opium around here. It's, I would love to see this thing pull back to, oh my goodness, what's snapping around here. So like this area.
And then I think, honestly, a back test of this area right here, I think I hammer long.
I mean, if we see even like 72, I think I would hammer some longs there.
Honestly, actually, we do have our sponsor hashtags.
I'll shout them out real fast right here.
We all know the most popular stock indexes in the US, like the SMP 500, NASDAQ composite, but crypto really doesn't have one.
And that's what hashtags is working with NASDAQ to create a crypto index.
And it's now basically available through the NCIQ.
So basically like your QQ or your spy, NCIQ.
And here I can type in the ticker right here.
It's basically this right here.
It's brand new.
You can see they're just now getting going.
Obviously, crypto has been pulling back and drop down to like a daily chart here.
But it's starting to get a little traction here.
And what it does, and I can pull this up over here real fast,
if you go to hashex.com, you see it on the bottom of your screen there.
I've got like 19 tabs open across my screen right now.
And I'm streaming.
So we've got all kinds of stuff going on over here.
Slow, slow.
Get that to reload.
My son's watching too much YouTube.
Well, it's not the website's fault.
I'll tell you that.
It's definitely my fault because I have Trade of 8 open.
I have Top Step X open.
I've got three charts here open.
Speaking of that, I didn't see it's not on a future short.
Yeah, I'm still holding some runners.
I didn't really want to add back into it.
I'm still holding some runners.
Yeah, it didn't get what I wanted that.
I'd love orders above.
It just missed it.
we haven't you really touched the 21 all day too if that touches like you're probably
i had levels there too to short i'm gonna try to pull this up again they work
There we go. Okay, I just need to get a new tab.
So you read the perspectives. Obviously, this isn't like any investment advice or anything like that.
Start doing your due diligence on this.
But it is pretty cool because they haven't market cap weighted.
So they have Bitcoin weighted at 88%.
And they have Ethereum exploded here at 11, basically 12% on that NCIQ.
So definitely something to check out.
Something to keep in mind, if crypto does get this dip, I'm telling you, if we get –
If we get down here, I mean, you can see I have my fib retracement drawn.
The golden retraces 726, and that's also basically all of these highs.
Look at that.
If I put my cursor there, that's basically the back test.
I mean, you have a three months consolidation.
You rip up without any real type of back test.
I mean, maybe this was.
But once you do this, I mean, I would...
I would have thought it would backtest at some point.
If we do that, I will definitely be looking to add some crypto exposure.
And I don't know, one way to do that, NCIQ.
Check out hashtags.com, though, or at hashtags on X.
And we appreciate them sponsoring this stream so we can come live to you guys, give our thoughts.
And yeah, I want to move on.
By the way, anybody in the crowd, anybody out there watching,
if you have any ticker requests that you want maybe Nott's to go through,
myself, KC, to give some thoughts on, throw those in the chat.
We'll pop those up on stream here,
and maybe we'll go through some crowd tickers.
Nott's, do you want to share your screen?
Maybe go through some things that you're watching?
Yeah.
Hold on a second.
Let me pull it up.
And I want to hit you off guard, and you've got...
private things up there but if you uh if you get no i got nothing up here hey you what
well i didn't know if you had like you know it is personal accounts or something up there i
don't know what you guys were thinking yeah i mean i'm not looking at anything special i'm looking
to get some shorts um oh i don't have it that you could see my orders on uh what's it called
right now but i have orders up above on the five minute uh bring it up right here
5 minute 21. I have an order here. I have an order right here with these candles kind of meet.
So I'm looking for a short. I know we're possibly looking to push along here, but this is the first time we're going to touch the 21 on the 5 minute.
And if you want to consider it a touch here, you know, an hour ago, but if not, since the open.
So there's possibility for some rejection here.
And even if I get a few, you know, 10, 15 points on the short, listen, I'm going to be looking at that because it looks like we're trying to actually turn around here.
If you look at smaller timeframes, where was it?
I mean, if you look at smaller timeframes, you start to see.
that the Wix are coming in.
And the Wix are coming into the downside.
We have an inverted hammer right here.
And we've been up ever since.
So definitely something to watch.
Need to get over this 216 level and see where we go from there.
Absolutely.
Now, there's some other Casey just showing us the,
can I make that big?
How do I do?
Clean that screen.
Clean that screen.
I love how it's mirrored.
Yeah, it is.
Can you see your chart's going to the left?
I can't figure out how to fix it off mobile.
This is bullshit.
That's fine.
Those levels, though.
Those levels are absolutely crazy.
Look at that smile.
Look at that guy.
what a guy
absolutely beautiful um so the way make sure you follow both these guys uh bull trade finder
that's not and kc trades make sure you follow them they both have some really great
trading rooms and great content as well i know kc does live streams every sunday night
uh both of them have uh discord rooms they do a lot of education stuff in there as well as
trade analysis and stuff so make sure you check them out follow them um we'll uh
We'll continue on here.
Yeah, we've got, Nott's.
If you've got any, you want to go over, but we do have some comments already for some
tickers people want us to look at.
Which one you want to go with first?
Here, we'll hit this one right here.
Yeah, KES seems to be OTC.
So I'm going to kind of skip past that.
Plus, I mean, there's really nothing to chart there.
SMLR, I've never heard.
Actually, I think I have maybe.
Let's see.
I want to check a couple different timeframes.
Give me a second.
I always like to dive into a couple different ones, so before I kind of really dive into it.
So weekly, 9 EMA retests so far rejecting.
Daily, forgive my trend lines right now on the Algo, but you can see the top one is kind of working out here.
I mean right into the 9, 100, the 21, the 200 on the daily.
The 200 is the light blue.
So kind of stuck right here.
Again, on the weekly, it rejected that 9 AMA.
So that's definitely something to watch to see if we kind of push downwards.
And it seems like it's kind of following suit with the market.
I mean, market fell.
SMLR fell kind of with it.
It bounced with the market.
As you could see, it actually kind of looks like literally a spy or KQQQ chart if you look at it.
If you compare them, I should say.
And we're starting to see the downside today.
So if we don't hold this nine, we could possibly look for more downside into probably the volume point of control even lower at 34,
or at least try to test right above this volume gap here that you could see.
That's kind of my thoughts on it. Do you guys have any thoughts on it?
I'm looking at it here.
One, I would like to know is if this is a biotech,
that's going to be a big key.
But a lot of these biotechs have been absolutely brutalized.
I look left on this chart and it has been
Gosh, way down since 2021.
But a lot of these biotechs are like that right now.
And I know some guys that trade these that are on the spaces with us a lot,
that they're saying these things are trading at basically cash value right now.
And there is a decent value to trying to get in a play like one of these.
From the technical side, yeah, I see...
yeah that 34 that volume shelf it's built a big box a big range down there i mean if
where it came off of it's actually a decent spot little fish hook maybe um yeah so it's interesting
i don't really trade a lot of biotex so i probably won't but i may bring up uh may bring this up
in one of the spaces later just kind of see what others are thinking about it what do you have on
msTR i know we talked about some of the crypto stuff as well and see that's the thing a lot
of people trading msTR to get the crypto exposure
When now we have a lot more products.
I mean, honestly, I like the idea of being able to get into like an ETF for an exchange that's holding crypto and actively managing it,
whether than just maybe Bitcoin itself through Sailor.
And Sailor just seems super aggressive.
I don't know for on the investment side.
Now, you can trade this thing.
MSTR trades very nicely.
And what it's done looks decent,
but it's right at that entire volume point of control.
You said volume shelf it's rejecting.
Yeah, it's right there on Natsis screen.
Now that's what you just said 100%, you know, right into this little volume shelf here and I'm just looking to reject there.
I've had this, oh, I've had this little range and I know it's basically 20 bucks, but I've had this range since this candle on November 11th.
And you could see it's really respected it both ways.
You know, up and down, either acting as support and a resistance.
You want to see it act as support here at around 320.
If it doesn't do that, it could possibly test down into the bottom of the range, which is around 290, 295.
So I would more so want, if I'm trading this personally, I'd more so want to see if we test down lower.
If we hold that 320, if we don't, we're going to look into that 290 to 295 area for a possible bounds.
But yeah, like you said, you know, Sailor is aggressive.
I mean, I don't like the whole entire company.
personally with the dilution process that they're doing to actually buy the Bitcoin.
But it is definitely something to watch and it can produce great trades.
Yeah, I don't have any like, I don't have a problem with it.
My problem is like I chart, you know, we talked about the Bitcoin chart a little bit earlier.
And I just see like.
a decent risk to the downside right now.
So I just don't know that I'd want to be in this now.
But this MSTR, I mean, other than this volume shelf that we're rejecting at 440,
I can see, maybe it comes out, but this chart looks a lot better.
So like maybe if we do get that breakdown, maybe if you're looking at trade,
maybe you do buy the dip on this around 300 or something like that.
I could definitely see that.
Maybe even the 320 area of it.
If it dips down, it doesn't dip down too far.
But definitely fun to trade that one.
Casey, did you have any thoughts on MSTR before we move on to Tesla?
Casey may be tied up with the kids at the moment.
That's no problem.
Let me do this.
All right.
How did I know you just called my name and I ran over here?
I was like, I bet he just called my name.
It's the dad thing is what it is.
It is.
It's a bad thing. We're connected.
But yeah, I just didn't know if you had any thoughts on MSTR.
We were just charting that one out a little bit.
Rejecting the volume point of control, 340.
Bitcoin looks not great, but MSTR looks a little bit more constructive, actually.
I mean, I've never been a huge fan, honestly, of some of the crypto names, like Coinbase, MSTR.
Honestly, it's just not my...
my forte to trade those names. I mean, they do they're very volatile and they can pay very well, but they can also crush you at the same time. I haven't really had luck with them.
But overall, I mean, MSTR was looking pretty good, but I mean, again, overall, been looking at Bitcoin and a larger time frame. I think the sector along just with Spy as well, everything's just looking at
more bearish just on the larger timeframe. I think some of these pops that we're getting up here, honestly, it's just lower highs that are being put in for a little bit more correction as right now for the market. So for me, just looking at them, I do think, and with MSTR even, I think we could see a little bit more downside over the next two months. Okay.
It's tough when I look at, when I look at charts, I'm like, I kind of like this chart, but I look at the overall market and I'm like, I'm not confident in swinging anything long really right now. So that.
that that does play into some of my decision making for sure um Tesla knots has got it pulled up there
i yeah that you talk about tommy waltz the uh politician you know basically giving us a bottom
and then the trolling on the subreddit did you guys see that where the they went on this on our
subreddit over on you know reddit or whatever and
Yeah, let's continue to stick it to Tesla.
And let's all short this thing down about 100.
It turns out the guy is allegedly as a Tesla bowl that went in there and started posting that and telling everyone that, yeah, let's just short this thing.
And then they all got their heads absolutely ripped off the last few days.
on this bounce. Tesla was super over cooked, but here we are back at the 200 day. I've been just kind of buying some shares here. I haven't really traded this a whole lot. I did a I did scop a little bit of calls. I usually do longer term swing on my call trading. But on this one, I was just like, I've got to get on some of this momentum. But what are your thoughts nuts?
Yeah, I mean, I think the only thing you really got to look at right here right now is we hit that 200 SMA yesterday and rejected.
You have a green hanging man, which, you know, possibly for more upside.
But, you know, that 200 is going to be big.
And so far, currently rejecting it on the daily.
And we almost tried to test it today.
We were about a dollar away.
But you can definitely see, you know, it's falling suit with the market and, you know, it's just not holding up or not getting the buyers to push through that 200 that many bulls are looking for.
So with that said, if we kind of stay around this area, around the 270-280 range, you want to see them break out of that 200 SMA to the outside or more upside into the 300 range.
Yeah.
Yeah, Casey, jump in if you're around.
If you have any thoughts on Tesla off the top of your head,
I know you're a little bit tied up over there,
but we appreciate you joining, of course.
And I'm looking at this.
Obviously, I see the rejection of 200-day, big gap ops.
A pullback day makes sense.
If it holds maybe, I mean, honestly, if it holds right here in this area, it's not a terrible look, but
Even if it came back down and filled that gap that 250, I think I would take a shot there. I really want to see this thing back over 300
Your 50 days way up there at like 320 something
It's kind of gone fib-to-fib here a little bit if that is the low for like the time being our halfback retrace on this
Let's see
well i'm sorry the 382 so one of the first fibs i look for is right at that 320 spot as well
and then a halfback move would take us to 352 actually which i know sounds kind of crazy right now
looking at upside targets on tesla but um i don't know i mean short term it does look like it probably
pulls back a little bit further um maybe to the 260 250 area get a gap to fill down there i don't
okay see what are your thoughts
Yeah, so I mean, we talked about it yesterday. I mean, even in the group chat, I mean, I was long Tesla. I mean, I'm in shares added down to the 220's, right? And I said I wanted Tesla to hit 290 this week. And if I'm not mistaken, Tesla yesterday right at the close hit 291. So that to me was a big target upside. I think it was a big rejection spot to come back down to 270, 275, which would line up with the daily 21. If this...
holds, which I would hope that it does, then I want to push back above 300. My target is 325, and then mid 3, like, almost 360-ish area after that. If it loses 270, I think it is going to go back downside and fill that gap down to the...
250 area. So not bad. I mean, if Tesla loses 270, I do think it's going to go down the 250. I will look to go long there, but it did hit 290 target. And it is a little overextended here. So the pullback, I think, is necessary.
And put in, hopefully, another higher low before it does break 300 and then push higher to 325. So I'm definitely going to keep it on watch.
Yeah, I like that as well. And that 390, that was a perfect target on that equity.
And of course, there are other things, you know, like TSL, TSLL, TSLT, you know, some 2X leverage.
You can avoid some of the options volatility and just take directional trades with some equity and get some decent returns, especially on a name like Tesla, right, that moves so much.
Amazon, we have a request for Amazon's chart.
Amazon, you talk about.
just something that can't really get going.
Every time this thing wants to break out, it like fails.
And I mean, this thing goes back forever.
But Amazon off of this like, the 180s, I mean,
honestly, even down a little bit further into the 170s,
this crazy consolidation.
But when I look at this on the daily,
it's under the daily, well, it reclaimed the daily 200.
And it just seems like,
Amazon has been unfairly beaten down for a company as good as it is.
I just wonder if this one doesn't catch a bid maybe before some of the other
Max 7 just because of like, yeah, I hear a lot of guys that do the valuation talk on this.
And like it trading cheaper than it was trading three years ago, which is kind of insane to think about.
So I don't know, what are you seeing on Amazon knots as far as levels or just general outlook?
Yeah, Amazon is a company. I mean, it is shocking that it's been stuck in this range and has continued to grow exponentially over those years that it's been stuck in that range.
Again, also like you said, you know, every time it tries to break out, and don't get me wrong.
I mean, when you look at this, you know, it had it other than my 400 lines that I needed to delete.
It had its move up and...
but it didn't get the move that we were thinking it would get you know after a four year
basically range bound you know move uh range bound you know chop um i mean with that said just
looking at now and where we are currently
Above the 9, above the 200 day, so that's good.
Sitting right on the 21 EMA right now as well.
You know, that 200 is going to be a key spot, obviously just a psychological level,
right above the 9 and 21.
So that's going to be what I'm watching for Amazon.
And again, this is a company that I personally bought shares long term, same thing with
Tesla on the dips.
you know, you want to, if you're looking long term, you want to buy good companies that are growing on dips.
Obviously, as simple as that sounds, people get scared when we see a 10% dip like we did just a few days ago and over the past few weeks, which buying cues.
But that is exactly where you want to take advantage of this market.
And what Amazon, again, continued to grow financially and doesn't look like anything stopping.
I mean, you see Amazon absolutely everywhere.
You know, I'll be taking advantage of there.
Yeah.
I just realized we didn't have any like full background music going on.
So I'm hoping we get my final target on in Q here at the downside.
I have 142.
I'm front running it a little bit at 144 for my like.
last runner take profit down here.
Yeah, my put it down.
But Amazon is, I think if you're just, if you're shopping for quality names, I think it's got to be on your list, right?
I like Amazon. I don't think it's going anywhere. I think it's continuing to expand and do more and more things.
So I don't see how Amazon's not going to be one of the first ones that does get some type of bounce or some type of love when money starts flowing back into the market.
Now, that's the question of when that's going to be.
But I'm definitely comfortable like DCAing into Amazon now.
I just looked at the four hour, the four hour right now,
it's gross.
It's slow, grindy up and then a massive candle down today on Amazon.
It's, it's the four hour looks pretty rough.
To throw up a four hour real fast,
if you've got it over there not, sir,
I can throw my screen back on.
Look at that four hour.
Look how it was just green, green, green, green,
green, green, you have way too many green candles in a row.
And then, uh, just an ugly rejection on that four hour.
Casey, if you're with us, do you have any thoughts on Amazon?
And then I know we've got one of Nott's favorite tickers up next.
Can you hear me?
Casey is on the road.
You're going to Smashburger right now?
Where are you going?
I'm headed to the scorer real quick.
Oh, there you go.
Is the microphone going through okay?
Yeah, we can hear the road noise a little bit.
Amazon's a short.
Amazon's short, yeah, at least for now.
I agree with that.
It just, I don't know.
The other side of this is like the sentiment side of things.
Like some of these things just, they're not acting well at all, like at all.
And Amazon's one of those.
It's just it was in Microsoft's another example, right?
Something that was already getting beat up before the market even pulled back.
All right, Knott's, we've got to hit your special here.
We've got about five minutes to the top of the hour.
We'll wrap it up at that point.
But PLTR, Mr. Palantir.
Obviously, we know the story behind Palantir is absolutely crazy.
You know, based and based forever, people finally caught on that this is a big player in the AI space,
what they're doing over there, the moat that they have around them.
But from a technical standpoint, in a chart standpoint, obviously anything that runs up like that
it's going to be the one of the first ones that come crashing back down.
Did crash back down, but it's since balanced and it's actually folding in nicely.
Now the moves on this thing are insane, not these three, four percent up days and four percent down days.
It's back and forth, but as far as a chart goes, like, well, I don't like for that rejection if they're around that 98, though.
Yeah. So I'm a big PLTR bowl. I will state I have sold about 80% of my position because, you know, it is definitely overvalued here.
And I was able to get some. Wait, can you hear my dogs in the background or now?
I did hear absolutely heard that.
I just want to make sure if not, I'll mute.
My head is in the wolfhead.
Yeah, I saw that.
I was able to actually get some sales out over 110.
I think it hit 120, yeah, 125 just about.
But in reality, I mean, the valuation here is crazy.
I would love, and I want to buy dips here.
I would love four dips under 60.
I don't know if it comes.
If it doesn't, I'm going to be happy with what I got out of it, to be honest, and I still have some shares.
But overall, I mean, I would say like...
Is it just in a no touch zone?
Like, at this point, when something like this happens, is it just a no touch?
Yeah, I can't justify it.
Because like, I mean, I know somebody like you, and I'd love to hear your perspective on this.
And Casey, if you have any thoughts, just jump in any time.
But somebody that was long in that like 15 to 20 range, right?
You know, building a position down there, maybe even lower.
But I know a lot of people in that 15 to 20 range, they're accumulating shares.
And the thing runs like crazy.
And runs probably even further than any of us imagined it would.
you start to sell back out of it and you're like, okay, well, I want to take some profits,
right? Because it's just a crazy run and I can add back. But where the heck do you add back
to the same? Yeah. Oh, by the way, quick side note. Thanks to you, my GE puts are up 15%.
Oh, nice. Live on the stream. That was a beautiful looking chart for a short. Yeah,
it was. And I'm here's on a gap to right here, by the way. But
Oh, sorry.
I just closed out mine, by the way, too.
My in-Q, my last runner, I closed out at 144.
Okay.
We just came down to the 120s.
But I am fully out.
Spy lost 570, by the way.
Wow.
Spy new low-up day, 570 puts in the money.
Yeah, we just hit the 9-EMA on the cues, and I think we just hit it.
No, we are just above it on Spy by 20 cents.
So there is possibility to see the bounce or...
somewhere down there. Let's see where we're out right now. This would be the spot.
Um, but my KikiQQ puts are up 40% here. I just trim them out. Um, and I got to stop in profit now in the remaining.
Overall, great day, trading wise. And again, thank you for GE. I mean, that's why, that's why we trade together every single day. I mean,
You know, the ability to share ideas and flow off of each other is amazing.
Again, I would have never seen GE on my own.
It's just something I don't look at.
And you just brought it up for me.
It looked absolutely amazing for a short, you know, at the time being.
And, you know, I took advantage of it.
And I'm about 15%.
So, you know, that's exactly why doing these spaces, doing these alive trainings together is...
a key and it has been a key for my success over the year. So again, I appreciate everyone that I've
talked to and been interacting with over the years. And, you know, it's just a great tool to use,
to utilize, you know, for future growth and trading.
Jack, I couldn't agree more.
Surrounding yourself with, you know,
one of my approaches has always been surround myself with,
with as many smart people as I can, right?
Because I don't know everything.
I'm not, I'm never going to know everything,
but I think if I surround myself with a lot of smart people,
it will net benefit me no matter what, right?
So yeah, I absolutely love that.
And then these little trading sets, I mean, turning seconds,
like, you know, you just never know what you're going to come across
because people look at different names or different,
different ways and you find a find an idea maybe you miss like like hey that one what a great example in GE and then also just
in general like if you're maybe I'm looking at something and I'm like hey I like this and then you come in and you're you present something to me and I'm like well okay wait a second he's seeing this differently than I am maybe I stay out of that trade with some confidence there so it uh it works I appreciate both of you joining I know we are at the top of the hour we just
Just made new lows of days across the board on everything.
Let me pull this back up real fast.
On my chart here, we'll wrap up the stream.
KQQ, new low of day, Spy, new Loved Day.
It's ugly out here.
We showed this at the beginning of the stream.
The SR flip on Spy, the previous day low rejection.
Casey was mentioning even on the five minute.
The daily looked terrible with the five minute right here at the open.
Big old shooting star right at previous days high.
Yeah, just.
A lot of confidence there.
And then for me, like, I tried to play a couple longs.
And once this lost everything, then I was like, OK,
I've got to get on the short side.
So I had to flip bias today, which is not usually easy for me to do.
But this one looked very clear.
And we did make new lows.
And here we are at the top of the hour, into the stream.
No, that's KC. This was fun. I'm excited to do this each and every week with you guys.
We do want to shout out our sponsor hashtags. Make sure you go to hashtags.com. Check them out.
Check out that NCIQ. That is the new ticker at ETF that they've come out with.
They also have a couple other ones. DeFi is another one they have DEFI. But NCIQ is the one that...
kind of caught my attention and we are excited to partner with them of course once again go to
the website read the prospectus but it is really interesting that they are trying to create
basically you know working with nasdaq to create you know an s mp 500 and nasdaq composite but
for crypto and i do think that's that's a very interesting concept so keep that on your radar
as well nats kc any final uh final thoughts from you guys as we wrap up here
Nothing on my end. I mean, again, just trade what the market gives you.
No need to force anything. Be patient. That is going to be the key to being successful in trading.
And I'm definitely one to hone in on that because I've not been patient many times before and it just bites you in the ass.
So as easy as it sounds, you have to be able to
incorporate that into your trading. And if you miss a trade, that is perfectly fine. I mean,
again, as you heard on here, I missed like two or three trades and I'm just waiting for the
next one. There's no need to force anything.
Yeah, I agree, especially with VIX elevated.
I mean, even though Vicks fell down far, it's still, what, over 18 right now?
That's still a lot to deal with.
So patience is always good.
Make your money.
Go to the gym.
Is that what Casey's doing right now?
Yes, sir.
I just got to hit the gym real quick while the kids are taking the nap.
So I've got to get those bird legs up.
Oh, you don't want to see these calves, baby.
Oh, he doesn't have a Celsius.
He doesn't have a Celsius.
It's a short.
Yeah, fuck Celsius.
He's cold Celsius.
All right, boys, I enjoyed this.
We'll look forward to doing this again next week at the same time.
Midweek market update on Wednesdays at noon during the lunch hour.
As you can see, a lot of times at this point of the day,
like to look through some stuff and then carry on with your day.
Do something like KC does.
Make your money and move on.
All right, boys, appreciate you guys going to the stream.
Shout out to hashtags.
Everyone check them out and we'll see you guys next week.
Yep, have a great day.
Later, guys.
Have a good day.
