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Monday Morning Bounce?! on Coffee with Captain #1,087
Recorded: Feb. 2, 2026 Duration: 1:51:39Space Recording
Short Summary
In a dynamic crypto landscape, discussions centered around new token launches, strategic partnerships, and the impact of market trends reveal a cautious yet optimistic sentiment among investors. As projects like MegaEth prepare for their token generation events, the community remains vigilant, weighing opportunities against the backdrop of market volatility.
Full Transcription
I'm telling you, I sell you a percentage on Nebula, shout out to Vince, yo, set it up.
Surfing on the web and I'm shooting at three, I've been golden when I got my G, I'm an
alien boy from a different planet, yeah, so I got my drink, I'm riding in the 1920s,
Model T, Ford, Car, Era, Lord, call me Levi, playing on keys, what, and I'm about to put
my gloves on, if I said it then I meant that, yeah, I like that boy And I'm about to put my gloves on
If I said it then I meant that
Yeah, I like that one, I'm about to get that
Crash that whip for the drumsticks, whiplash
I'm about to get them all, are you with that?
In a white boat, surrounded by blue
I want one, but I got a cop turned
I wanna fly high in the sky, arms out wide
Tryna soar from a bird's eye view
I'm on fire, Ricky Bobby
Cracking the pavement, Whitney Bobby I'm a Saki Bobby Cracking the pigment Whitney Bobby
I'm a Saki bomb Hiroshima Nagasaki Bruce Wayne been a dog
And I keep it 101 Cause I'm feeling kinda spotty
Sipping on some rock and I'm sipping on octane
The only thing around my neck is the blockchain
Now I got coins I see where y'all going
Been popping since web one Hella hooked on web two
I was living the dream Hella hooked on web two, I was livin' a dream
Now I'm on web three, and it ends with the seams
Toppin' the pyramid schemes, I'm tellin' ya
I'll sell you a percentage on Nebula
Shout out to Viz, yo, set it up
NFT, Twitter, blockchain
CM with the ghosts and we ballin' like a bronze age
Crypto, crypto, we can make a trade, get the memo
Reviews not fallin' for the FOMO.
Listening to coffee with Cappy, you know we were a wide day loco.
I ain't never gon' stop rapping.
Orlando, yeah, we workin' magic.
We rockin' Ethereum in a tease.
I just went and caught me a half bass.
Man, I gotta shut up the 40s.
I just went and caught me a half bass.
Been poppin' since Web 1, hella ho, gone web two
I was livin' a dream, now I'm on web three
And it is what it seems, toppin' the pyramid schemes
I'm tellin' ya, I sell you a percentage on Nebula
Shout out to Vince, yo, set it up
Breakin' the mood to choose one
Bunny got knowledge to move, son
I'm shakin' in shades with my brother in suits
Yeah, them blues is comin'
Even though it's hard to pick, eeny, mighty, moe, soda on the mix, no biting lips, it's
time to go.
Index number one, no thumbs up, you gotta scroll.
Lookin' at the ghosts in studio, it's time to go.
Had a helmet on by myself until I met a mask that wanted to have a face-off.
Had to bring my chainsaw, full ticket gas, and I drive with my brakes off.
I'm A1, but a different kind of steak sauce.
Welcome to Coffee with Captain, powered by 8oin, where we dive into all things crypto, NFTs, Web3, and cutting-edge technology.
Remember, nothing here is financial advice.
Early safe check can be exceptionally volatile and risky.
So grab your coffee and join Cap and C for today's conversation.
Welcome to the future.
Welcome to Coffee with Captain GM.
GM, thanks so much for joining.
Appreciate y'all being here.
Shout out to Grand Rising over Web3 Warhead
in the YouTube chat abstracts.
Also live, Teacher Katie,
our reigning community member of the month
over there dropping the GMs.
It is February, so new challenge begins today.
There's no points to farm.
There's no – it's all a big mystery how you secure the community member of the month.
But appreciate you all.
All those repost bookmarks and everything is greatly appreciated.
It's not going unnoticed out there.
As always, I'm Cap.
Never any financial advice on the show.
It's all risky, especially in markets like this.
Please do your own research, and don't leave your logs or shorts open for that matter. Hopefully we get that Monday
morning bounce here on Coffee with Captain. A little bit of cold open, like literal cold open
this morning. It is quite frigid here in Florida. We like teetering on the freezing lines, 32 degrees
or zero Celsius. And I didn't think it was exploding shower doors cold, but
apparently, apparently it is was sitting, uh, just, I can't even make it up, sat down, not like a big,
um, not like a big afternoon TV enjoy or, or movies or anything. It's usually, I won't turn
on the TV until like eight o'clock at night when I get in bed. And then I'm usually asleep before
the first episode or the movie is over. In fact, I can't tell you last time I watched a
complete movie, uh, start to finish anyways, yesterday, uh, had a little break in the day,
sat down on the, in the couch and living room, just said, it's quiet, lazy Sunday afternoon.
And minutes later hear this explosion, like a literal explosion, and like, what was that?
And go in the bathroom and discover an exploded shower door, a glass shower door.
Don't know how this happens.
Never seen anything like it before.
But yeah, the entire, the door, actually, I say the door, the door survived. Uh, it's still
there as you can see, but the glass shower just spontaneously combusted. I don't know. Like it's
not that cold. I mean, it was probably like low sixties in the house. I did actually turn on the
heat for the first time this morning, uh, just to keep it above that 60 degree mark. But now I'm like hot and sweating because the heat and I already feel like I'm dried out. It
makes me appreciate living in Florida even more. Just give me flashbacks to how the winters would
just dry out my skin in the Midwest and just not enjoyable. I'm feeling that this morning a little
bit, but not going to complain. I unfortunately was not in the shower and it was
just a mess to clean up and we'll get the Hungarian glass guy will be out here this week to replace
it. But anyways, interesting weekend there, interesting Sunday. I don't know what to make
of this. I don't know what sign this is for your markets today. I don't know if this means we explode to the north. If we explode south, I really don't know.
But if anyone is, any of the stars,
the astrology people out there can translate
what an exploding glass shower means for markets,
I am willing to open up a long or short.
You tell me which way to go.
I saw Jack flip on stage here.
We'll get to Jack in a second.
One thing I find really interesting is all markets are getting hammered. It's not just
Bitcoin or crypto. I mean, everything but hyperliquid is getting hammered. But all markets,
for the most part, are down pretty bad. I mean, gold has erased $1,100 in like three trading days,
silver down 40% in three trading days.
So a lot of people are like,
oh, well, Bitcoin and crypto hasn't kept up with gold and silver.
Kind of has.
Actually, it's outperformed it if you look since the bottom of 22.
And it took, at least it took Bitcoin like four months
to erase 40% of its market, whereas silver took three trading days.
Pretty incredible.
What is really interesting to me, and I really don't know what to make of it, but I don't ever remember.
I mean, we could probably overlay the charts and find out the exact time.
But at least since I've, like, paid attention to them, I don't ever remember seeing such a difference in the fear and greed charts.
Crypto fear and greed, extreme fear at 15.
Last week, we were double this.
We were almost 30.
Conversely, and maybe it's just lagging a little bit.
But conversely, the stock market fear and greed index is at 57.
It's in greed. So you got stocks in greed, crypto in extreme fear.
And all I know is this, is every time we've hit extreme fear, it's been a good time to buy.
I'm pretty sure this holds up now.
You would need to sell the pumps because it will come back at some point.
But I really don't know what to make of the market.
I hope everyone's okay.
I guess my first and foremost is I kid you not,
I lucked box into closing my longs last,
whatever the first day of the burp claim was,
I had a few longs open and closed them with the full intent,
copper being one of them,
but closed them with the full intent to copper being one of them, but closed them with the full intent to
short burp
at TGE and it wasn't
not realizing it wasn't
because I saw some people were shorting it.
Long story short, it was perps are open
on MEX, but not
on any of the, not on Hyperliquid
or Lighter where
I trade perps.
So I just closed the short,
didn't re or close the longs, didn't reopen them. And so yeah, the burb TGE, while I finally got my
claim through this morning, it actually did save me quite a bit of money because it forced closed
my, or didn't force close them. I closed my longs with the intent to short Burb. I still would like to short it.
It is, I just saw someone tweet out like,
something's way off.
If you look at market caps or fully diluted value,
where Burb is still at like north of 200 million.
I haven't checked.
Let me double check this morning,
make sure my numbers are right.
Burb is still at 220
230 FDV.
Circulating market cap is only 65.
This thing is going, I mean, unless something changes,
we'll get into the numbers here in a bit, but like the claims are
I'm not, I'm not, I'm claims are... I'm not funding the team.
I'm not funding Spencer.
I'm just commentating on the data that is real data.
It's on-chain.
It's price action.
I'm just commentating on the data.
I can't remember another claim being so few claimed.
I'll pull up the numbers here in a second.
But there's an extreme amount of moonbirds
i mean claim their tokens yet and this thing is like at first i thought when it opened like oh
this will trade below 200 million i think this thing is heading for double digits i i don't
unless something major changes i think a lot of people actually claimed and inadvertently nested
or played the burb game without knowing what they were doing because it just the site sucked um technically sucked it was not clear and while i do appreciate the game and
the game theory i mentioned that on the other day i'm glad to give us something to do with our
tokens other than just sell i think these are the tokens those that haven't sold are likely just to
dump this i don't think people are going to play this game long term. I think some may be played at the first round. I think there's a lot
of holders out there that are going to, will probably insta-dump as soon as they claim that
just haven't got around to claiming yet or haven't been able to claim yet. And I would be max shorting
this now. In fact, I don't have an account with max. I'm considering if we don't get it on Hyperliquid
or Lighter or TradeXYZ or one of these other PerpDexes this week,
I may actually move some funds over to Max solely with the intent to short Burr because it just doesn't make sense.
It doesn't make sense for the current, other than all the sellers haven't claimed their token yet.
I could go on. I'm sure I'll come back to it in a second.
I am going to pull up some more data to
support my take here. So you don't think it's just me footing. I'm not footing a team. I'm
shorting a chart, shorting price action. And the data that we have,
you look, the circulating supply is only 28%. And that said, it's not even really 28% because of the 285 million burb, there's a large portion of that that still has not been claimed. So while it's circulating, because it's in wallets to be claimed, so it's actually, it appears it's claimable, or I mean, it appears it's circulating, but it's not really circulating yet. It's not really circulating
until the end holders claim it.
And I think a lot of them are going to dump.
And if you just compare this to other tokens,
whether it be, I don't know, Rekcoin,
or if you want to look at NFT specific ones,
probably the better comparable is look at something like,
I mean, Pingu is north of this.
Apecoin token is like half of this price,
not quite, but way less.
And from an NFT standpoint, it's not even close.
Like Burbs are, let's just say 1 ETH,
Apes are 5 ETH.
And I know it's not a pure one-to-one,
but it doesn't make any sense
while Burb would be trading about 2x out of Apecoin
where we know what ApeCoin is.
We also know while it's further down its lifecycle, the sell pressure is nearly over.
Like the Dow is done. There's no more grants.
And most of the staking is done. Most of the team Vest is done.
Like the sell pressure on Ape is almost done where this is just getting started.
The sell pressure on APE is almost done where this is just getting started.
You know, not only do we have a lot more to claim, but there's another 65% of this token that is basically sell pressure.
So, yeah, I just, this thing is going, I don't, unless something major changes, unless there's some big announcement,
I have a hard time believing this token is staying north of 100 million, full FDD.
And I am, as soon as I can, I'll be opening a long-term short,
not a short-term one. I'll open a long-term short where there's no risk of short-term
liquidation because I do expect them. I do believe they have market makers. I do believe
market makers are probably holding this line. If you see the sell-off, the sell-off, lower the
pump, a sell-off, and then it's this, I believe, I'm guessing, I don't know. This is just me speculating.
I'm guessing market makers have their buy orders in at 200 million FTV.
And every time it touches that number, they buy up.
They can't do this forever.
Like this is only a short-term game.
And once they stop protecting that wall, it's Jover.
Like this thing is, it's just the launch.
I can't remember a launch going this poorly. I'm not picking on the team.
I'm not knocking them. I just, the sentiment's really bad.
Someone shared earlier a post about what are you doing with your burb?
And like the top 10 replies where I'm still trying to claim it.
Like these are just those claimers,
I believe translate most of them to numbers and it sucks.
It sucks for the Moonbird team put put a lot of time into this,
and tried to time the market well.
They delayed TGE because of market conditions.
And ultimately, I don't know,
you probably couldn't have launched at a worse time
as far as the market's concerned in the last,
since Spencer acquired.
I think he probably, and again, it's not, you don't know.
It's really hard to time this stuff up perfectly.
And like,
since they TGE'd,
I think,
I mean, Bitcoin's down double digits.
Like, I think we were close to like 90K.
We were like chopping around 90K TGE day.
And now Bitcoin is,
you know, hoping to get back to 80.
And everything else is getting nuked
other than, like I said,
Hyperliquid and a few others.
Some memes are holding strong, but for the most part, markets are tanking.
And not only does it make me sad for Birb and the Moonbirds team, it causes concern for MegaEth, which is public domain that goes live in a week.
Now it's not TGE.
I know there's some confusion out there.
People think that TGE is denied. Maybe it is. They've not said that. And at this point, I would be surprised if they
TGE a week from today. But you also have a lot of other big claims. I mean, we were talking,
there's like 40 plus real teams that have been waiting for perfect market conditions to TGE.
And boy, oh boy, I bet a lot of them wish they would have done it in Q4 now.
Like, I just, this is the risk.
And waiting is, yes, markets can improve, but they also get a hell of a lot worse.
And I don't know if there's any team out there that wants to be dropping a token
in extreme fear of market conditions.
Jack, what say you?
GM, Cap.
I haven't got the mic on today, so hopefully I'm coming through.
Okay.
Just through the phone.
Awesome.
Awesome.
Well,
look,
yeah,
I'm,
I'm kind of with you.
I don't see in terms of short term until there's like further announcements,
how this thing sustains the levels it's at,
the game interesting.
I don't know how the unclaiming works for the game for the it's hard
yeah it's also like just very clunky like i don't know like i had my burb that was on solana from
the soulbound tokens and i claimed that i did play the game with that and then i had my burb that was
due to my mythic and i nested was supposed to be able to claim some of that, but that wasn't available.
And it shows that I don't have any to claim yet.
I just, yeah, that's exactly where I'm at with my whole moon bed.
Like it just shows, you know, I'm nested, but I've never been able to claim any bed from it.
Yep.
For me, but I can't imagine if someone had like, was sitting on 10, 20, 30, 40 Moonbirds and bought them with the intent to claim this.
And it's just like, it is, again, I'm not picking on them.
I just personally, I'm sure there's been worse.
I'm sure that I'm absolutely certain there's been worse.
I've not been paying attention to any or I've not been involved in any claims related to NFT PFPs where the team launched a token that that that played out this bad i don't
say it was just executed this bad i know there's a lot of variables involved but yeah this thing
has just been a train wreck from the launch and it doesn't unfortunately it doesn't seem to be
really getting much better yeah look i i think one thing that's going through my head is how many
of these birds are just inactive now i feel like moonbirds attracted
a really random type of nft holder um and some of them were big pockets who've just like set them
and forget them um i mean like so so hold on you're saying since like the beginning of moonbirds or
since spencer acquired well i thought there was a lot of turnover in that collection um once spencer
acquired it so i my impression is like the majority of that base was a lot of turnover in that collection once Spencer acquired it.
So my impression is like the majority of that base were individuals who's come in since Spencer acquired.
But you think there's still a lot of like holdovers that just they minted this thing.
They came in because of K-Row and they forgot about it. Yeah. So I know a couple who are whales who are exactly in that position, like at least a couple hundred.
That just, you know they they exist
they're they're still alive if the token does really well but they've just sort of left them
in wallets that they just don't even use anymore i honestly i don't even know if they're in wallets
they can access anymore um so so there is that but that's not like that. It's not even it definitely is NFA, I should say.
But the way the game works is all unclaimed tokens go towards the game and get redistributed to the gamers.
So it's not even like, you know, that's going to be a long term build up for it.
I'm wondering if that's like a month where they can't do it this time around because they've
given seven days to claim which means that you know if the game is played especially with the
technical issues that the team have had i think it would just be way too complicated to be like
okay on this day on this minute we redistribute i can definitely see that being held off for a month
also just strategically that makes sense.
I don't know if they also have like a time period.
They've got to do that.
So, you know, if all the unclaimed moonbeards from this time around, I doubt they're just going to go, OK, we're going to dump that on the holders who've played the first month of games.
I think that will be like a pool that they will continually, you know, redistribute for the people playing the game.
Wholeheartedly. I do not think all that's getting distributed on on the very first month i think they'll drag it
i'm in here here's the chart i was referencing comparing the two you look at ape ftd is 145
million burb is 227 yet the nfts are five times the price so they're just present either burb is
extremely overpriced or ape should be 5 x higher uh probably somewhere rising though you know like it is it is seeing
like sales and it is going up from mint i mean not from mint sorry from the the previous floor
after the drop you're the moonbirds nft yes yeah i it is it's at 1.04, up 12% on the day.
Oh, I saw 1.3, so maybe it's already slipped.
It does. Like, I just, I'm not saying.
Oh yeah, no, it's already slipped. So yeah, look at that, that point, let's, let's just ignore that.
But yeah, look, I think for me, obviously I've done this podcast. I am like Cap, cap you know this from back in the day i am definitely on the more bullish sentiment for projects who are just still trying still here always have been
a brother from another mother yeah dude like absolutely but i do like i i'll be dropping it
either today or tomorrow you can go see it now it's on the main podcast but there is a there is
a clip right at the end it's like five five minutes of Spencer basically talking through his theory of why he's acquired Moonbirds and how well the TCG does, which brings in millions.
Yeah, but but here's where I get like, that's awesome.
But where I get hung up with is I don't see any connection to thees TCG with Burb or Moonbirds.
And I know it doesn't, I mean, actually it does
go direct, like the success that Rectrix is having.
They're at least taking 10% of the revenue and buying
token. Like, I just, I'm not
saying it, I'm not saying like
holders should get dividends.
I'm not saying turn this thing into a security,
but like make some connection.
Like I'm actually surprised
we haven't seen any
sort of tie because he has a real business right like he's like oh we're gonna do a billion dollars
in revenue yeah well but that's all the clip i'm sharing it does very much correlate those two
things so um like basically his whole thesis about the tcg game and the acquisition of Moonbeard as a brand and an IP is due to the fact that the TCG is doing so well.
And they need an IP that is their own IP that they own to fulfill the success of this thing.
It can only win on orders of magnitude against the IP.
So Pudgies did it first, but they don't own that brand so i i do
think there are plans but again non-financial advice but if you watch this clip that i'll
release either today or tomorrow i just the market everyone's just talking about market being down i
just don't know whether it's even worth dropping it today but people can just go to the timestamp. I think it's like one of the final timestamps about Moonbird acquisition.
Like I do fully foresee that Spencer's whole plan around the TCG is to grow the brand through the IP of Moonbirds.
Like that's a sentiment he shares.
Joey, we'll get you in a second.
Jack, I'm curious though.
Do you think, like there's two hypotheticals.
One, I mean, three.
Things could just chop.
Floor could go up.
The prices don't go up.
Or it could go down.
And if he's could go down, the tokens could go down.
I was referencing some of the numbers.
I put up a post from Ravian Apier.
He says, claims appear to be pretty wide open for Birb.
And the claim members are looking pretty awful.
Only 35% of Moonbirds have claimed their first month aloe and nested.
Only 51% of Audubes and Mythbirds have claimed their first month Allo and nested. Only 51%
of Audubes and Mythics have claimed.
That leaves a massive 7.5 million
Birb unclaimed as a potential prize pool
for Birb game one. Moonbird floor did
go up, as you mentioned, from 0.8 to 1.08,
which essentially has given anyone who hasn't nested
a free 3.3 months
of value without having to lock up your assets for a month.
At the end of the day, it all boils down to
the value of Birb. Current track record record is not great thus the moonbird team is
not to be trusted not to fumble anything else oh wait they already have but that will get that
shared later my question for you is if things go well yeah it could be a great tie-in to the
moonbird ip but if burb let's just say this thing goes from $240 million to $80 million market cap on Burb,
and the floor price dips back below one and people lose cost,
what sort of impact does that have on their Vibes TCG for the Moonbird brand?
Yeah.
And I can't imagine it's great.
Maybe it's fine, but it definitely doesn't help if you lose sentiment.
Because I have to imagine the reason that a lot of these NFT native IPs do well is they have a raving fan base.
As Steve mentioned, part of the raving fan base is when you're making your holders money.
Like it or not, it's just the sorority of this space.
It's much easier to curate an army of brand ambassadors when they're excited about the tokens they're holding.
And when a thing keeps bleeding out, they're not nearly as likely to go buy your next blind box or your next vibes tcg yeah absolutely
look i think there's even a part in the interview where he says every piece of momentum every part
of the momentum that they have got is dependent on the success of the next thing you know so you
you know any any deals that you're striking,
any long-term commitments that you're striking
is based on the fact that they made millions
from the initial launch,
but they're only as good as the next best product.
So whether the token itself is seen
from an investment vehicle point as like,
no, that was a big failure.
If it does go down down we can't touch the
next product now or whether there is a decoupling from at least the physicals to the token which i
would assume if you were at all accustomed to looking at this space then there would be a
decoupling there like purely just basically it really doesn't correlate to what you can do in the real world and to what you can do with a token.
But, yeah, I don't think there is no pressure on Spencer and the team to ensure that in the long term this thing succeeds. I do think that history, you know, if you look at Doodles and you look at Azuki with anime,
like if you look at these other 2022 slash 2021 projects that were like really up there
in the last bull and you look at their token price to go to 80 million market cap isn't
necessarily the l that people think it is i remember doodles like i can't remember where
that went but it wasn't very high to begin with like it, it was, you know... Yeah, I don't know, man. I disagree.
I think it does. I think some of these cases
is a death nail. Like, I think
after Dude, and the
performance there, and there's been a utility,
like...
No, I mean... I think they partnered
with... They're not even selling out
their vinyl drops. Like, those vinyl drops, you sell
almost instantly. It's like, I think it had
a severe negative impact on the brand and their ability to sell into their base i think a lot
of people absolutely cap what i'm saying is there's a separate base out there and that's
institutional and that's company yeah because look they they literally after that drop their
next announcement was um the the cereal brand, Fruit Loops.
You know, like, and there was multiple talks since then with animations, they're talking with studios, all of these things.
So, yeah, I think there is a slight separation.
Now, I haven't heard anything from Doodles since the, you know, the Fruit Loops drop.
So whether that was something that was on the cards
previously and you know it just took a long time to get over the line which would make sense for
a corporation that big dead you know that that could be something but i do i'm hesitant to believe
when the ip is succeeding externally now like on short forms or in terms of reception in terms of how those partnerships
do for those brands as well you know point to mcdonald's and the will you know that basically
the whole us when it was initially supposed to be a specific area of the us look at fruit loops and
you know that i think if they are doing well that's what's being taken to new collaborations
it's not hey look at our token uh that's that's just my sort of thoughts on that
fair thoughts i just don't know if it did well um vibe we don't know no info has been shared i don't
think it went wide i think it was holders bought and i even know a lot of holders who passed on
that one like i just i don't know as if it did well. What, Vibes TCG?
No, the Doodles Fruit Loops thing.
Oh, yeah.
Vibes TCG, the interesting take here from Dore.
Joe, you're on deck.
He says, Vibes TCG is where it is because the Pudgy IP,
hard to replace that with random Owl IP and expect the same level of success,
in his humble opinion.
Vibes TCG may be where it's at because of the Pudgy IP.
Hard to just replace a random
new OWL IP and expect
the same level of success. Godspeed to that.
Are Pudgy holders going to support Vibes TCG
if it's 100% Moonbirds? Interesting to think
about. And then worth noting, since we're
talking Vibes and Pudgies and the tie
in with Orange Cap Games and Moonbirds,
Orange Cap Games sold their
lot of Pudgies.
Spencer and Orange Cap famously acquired the Three Arrows Capital bag of Pudgie Penguins back in October of 2022,
which at the time, well, not at the time.
I mean, Pudgies went on a crazy run following that.
Looked like maybe the trade of the century.
I think these things ripped from like 5 ETH up to 30 ETH. And then obviously Pingu claim.
I'm sure the fund did fine on the Pingu claim,
but just yesterday or over the weekend,
it was announced that he sold all those,
all those pudgy penguins to Adam Weitzman.
And I don't, their deal terms wasn't disclosed,
but the current floor price is below what they bought them for.
So you want to talk about like an all time round trip.
I'm sure the fund has done very good.
I'm sure Spencer's made a lot of people a lot of money.
But it's just wild to look back and think that like that was – I'm old enough to remember that being like applauded as one of the best trades ever.
And at the end of the day, they sold below what they bought them for.
Now, and I'm sharing that because there's probably a lot of – this isn't like grave dancing.
This is – there's a lot of people who are probably down bad and you've round tripped or you got liquidated.
There's a fund that was largely regarded,
at least as far as the NFT natives,
one of the most successful, couldn't miss,
and they round tripped a huge bag.
You also have Tom Lee, who's down 6.9 billion.
It's about the only time 6.9 isn't a good meme
is when you're down 6.9 and there's a B
after it. BitMine is down 6.9 billion after top blasting ETH around 4K. So if you're down bad,
you're not down that bad. I know for a fact, I rarely speak in absolutes or at least attempt not
to. I'm certain, 99.99% certain that none of you are down 6.9 billion in in the last year uh joey gm if you're down 6.9
billion uh you you've uh you've hid your wealth from me very well if i bought if i was worth 6.9
billion love you guys i wouldn't be here in the mornings sorry uh i'd be it'd be sponsored by uh
we'd be less vows uh in our uh or for a few more vows in our title i would i would definitely
sponsor if i
was worth 6.9 billion i'd sponsor coffee with captain just for the shits and giggles because
i love you guys uh just to but uh so i was able to claim so like i'll walk through my process
because you were talking earlier about how like the how the process works so i was able to claim
um it did take me clicking the claim button multiple times. And when I mean multiple,
I mean, I had to come back a couple hours at a time and click claim, claim, claim, claim, claim.
And it finally went through. But here's the part where I could see where people made a mistake
is that when you went to claim below the, there was, so this was explained to me in the discord,
which was not explained from all of where I was looking for information was not explained.
When you go to the claim site, there's two different claims.
So the first claim is all of the claims for the SBTs and all that other stuff, right?
Like, so the page is kind of divided in half.
When you scroll down, you'll see the burb game. If you don't specifically click a button at the
very bottom of the page that says claim to wallet, if you just click claim, you're claiming
directly to the burb game and it's distributed automatically equally across the four different burb characters. So let's say you had a thousand
burb to claim via SBTs and all that stuff. That's on the, that's on the left side of the,
of the, like the square. If you just click claim, it claimed that thousand SBT got distributed 250
burb to each of the four, each of the four burbs for the burb game if you scrolled past the burb game there was a little
button on the bottom right that said claim to wallet if you clicked that that thousand burb
would have been claimed directly to your wallet versus claiming it to the burb game so that was
the so i i was lucky enough that i saw that because i'm not interested in playing the burb game
it was it like i know there's going to be all this free bird going out to people and
whatever.
But to me,
it isn't really a game.
You're just like,
it was like,
if the first bird beats the second bird,
then the third bird beeps,
the second bird and voting or whatever.
I don't know.
It was just to me,
that's not a game.
and I wasn't interested in locking up my $500.
So it's game theory.
I actually,
I enjoyed it. Like like to me is it perfect
no but i like the fact i i have to give credit where it's due and i like the fact that i've said
for most of these nft pfp token drops is they don't do anything it's like here's your claim
go sell it or just cross your fingers and pray to the crypto gods that it doesn't
go down, which I think it's safe to say 100% of the NFT PFP tokens that had nothing to
do with their, that there was no sink.
So there was no use case, no utility whatsoever.
I think probably 100% of them are down.
Probably.
I'm not saying for sure, but the only ones that had any sort of pump
was there was real utility.
I'm not going to go back and relitigate
the six activations that ApeCoin had
within the first month of dropping their token
and how well that drop was executed.
But even Pingu, like even today,
like you're still getting something
for holding your tokens on abstract.
Like I do want to give them credit.
Something is better than nothing.
I think had they not had the issues with the tech and had it been a little more clear, I think the game would maybe play out differently.
And I guess here's the other thing.
Someone said over the weekend, I think it was actually Steve talking about Claudebot, that tough UI, bad UI, UX is bullish.
Because so few people are playing the game now,
it is really bullish for,
it's bullish for those that are playing.
Because if everyone had claimed,
what they said was,
if you split evenly and you did,
let's, I got a thousand tokens, basically.
So if I put 250 on each, I was, it was going to be plus EV.
Because two of them were going to double their tokens, and two would lose.
I didn't do that.
You can see here, I split.
If you want to get on Team Pip and Team Zin, those are the two that I thought would have been the most under allocated.
I think Burb is probably going to get the most.
Play the game.
Honestly, I don't uh play the game honestly i
don't know how the game works but anyways to the point of the game cap i was hoping it was going to
be something like interactive right like where we where it wasn't just like allocate your yeah like
that was my interaction is is sometimes less is more and it's like because once you start going
interactive then you start getting compared to like roblox or fortnite and it's like, because once you start going interactive, then you start getting compared to like Roblox or Fortnite.
And it's like,
just make it a simple game theory game,
like just clicking buttons,
but add some game theory to it.
I'm a fan of this style of game.
I just think if they could do it over again,
they probably would have done some more stress testing.
The UI would have been a little better.
And so I take no issue.
I hear you personally.
It's all opinion.
I take no issue with I hear you. Personally, it's all opinion.
I take no issue with the style of game.
I just think the execution's been pretty, pretty poor.
The other thing, Jack, I'm going to,
or Joe, I'm going to go right back to you.
I just want to show something real quick because I think this is important.
The things that jump out to me
is keep in mind how many soulbound tokens they did.
A lot.
Like basically, if you were paying attention,
if you're in the space,
you could have claimed some BIRB.
There was far more than,
I'm pretty sure,
far more than 14,064 holders of BIRB SPTs.
Right now, the number of holders
for the BIRB token
is only 14,000 holders.
It's not much at all.
Like, so not only have not many people claimed,
I'm guessing, like i i think i think that i i appreciate they did something new right i think it started with pingu and they
said hey if you have a solana wallet you've done any activity you can claim some pingu
worked it worked for them um pudgy has 537 000 holders the stillbound token was a different step
i think at the claim process
been a little easier, you probably have more than 14,000 holders. 14,000 is not that much.
And that thing can go, I mean, it's like a fresh meme coin, basically. I was talking to Ape,
so just so you see the full comparison, they've got 185,000 holders, although I believe that
number is not all inclusive because I'm not sure it includes everyone that's holding on a tier one
exchange. I think this is just in DeFi. Anyone can correct me if I'm not sure it includes everyone that's holding on a tier one exchange.
I think this is just in DeFi. Anyone can correct me if I'm wrong there. But you're talking well
over 100,000 holders for Ape and Pingu. Burb has 14,000. Not much at all. I guess on the
bright side of that is there's not many sellers. The chart is much easier to support when you only
have at max 14,064 holders that can dump into this chart. And you've got a large portion in
the team wallet. You've got some market makers out there. And it's just very clear to me,
if you look at the chart, I'll show up one more time. And then Joey, I'll hand it back to you
and pull up the chart here. Actually, I'm going to hand it back to Joey and I'm going to go refill
my coffee. So Joey and Jack, you've got the mic for at least 60 seconds. But look at this chart. You don't have to be a TI expert to tell me what line is
being protected. It's very, very, very clear. This 200 million FTV is getting bought up every
time it hits there. I'm not saying go channel trade this or swing trade this. But for a token
that's in its first week, this maybe is one of the easier charts to trade
we've seen in a while because the volume, the volatility is pretty limited. It's not ripping
up that high. And the bottom's 200 million for now. Now, at some point, the market makers can't
do this forever. And also, I don't have any inside info.
Maybe it's just pure coincidence.
I'm pretty certain it's market makers protecting the $200 million floor.
And I don't know,
but I said,
I'm going to,
I want to short this thing.
I may,
I may,
I may flip and go long.
I may just trade the game as soon as I just,
I would really like it live on a perp decks I trade on that way.
I don't have to go open a new account.
But if, if, if like say today it goes live on hyper liquid, Ix i trade on that way i don't have to open a new account but um if if
like say today it goes live on hyper liquid i will be longing it at 200 million and then i'm i don't
know like then it's a guess then probably close it at 220 uh 230 and then flip to short until it
goes back to 200 million and then flip to long like i do think you could swing trade this thing
pretty easily on what we're seeing in terms of the chart here
in the week following launch. Joey, go back ahead. And then Joey, Jack, and I saw Moisture
jumped up as well. If you guys don't mind guest co-hosting while I go for the coffee,
I'd appreciate it. Yeah. The only other thing that I, for me, from a user experience, user
interface, which I think they should have done would have been
very similar to what pengu did which was when you claimed they they showed you that you're what you
were getting credit for so i had you know i had four oddities i had some sbts on eth i had sbts SBTs on ETH. I had SBTs on soul. I bought the, the vinyls and redeemed those SBTs. Like I had a
bunch of stuff, probably not, you know, not a, not a ton, right. We had a bunch of stuff and I
hadn't, and I honestly had no idea what any of it was worth to see if like, and maybe people,
it doesn't matter to other people, but to see the $250
I spend on the vinyls, like just for my own personal knowledge, like what did I get for
that?
Right.
I redeemed 12 of the, you know, I scanned 12 of those QR codes for the vinyls.
So I think that was also a small miss was telling people like, like I got, I think it
was like 1300, uh, burb from all the SBTs and stuff,
which was about $500, I think. Um, but I have no idea what that breakdown was. So I think that
was a small miss was not telling people, um, the breakdown. And then the last thing I want to
comment on real quick, which you were talking about Jack, which was like, you know, the IP
and the TCG and all that stuff like that so i i
understand orange cap games and we talked about this last week too orange cap games is the the
the parent company or whatever it is of moonbirds and pudgy penguins and dort had a great comment
which cap read out about you know the pudgy penguins um ip itself is probably what really
pushed that brand as well. But obviously their
knowledge in the space, I I'm still not understanding. And, and maybe it'll become
clear. Like, I just don't see a connection on how the success, how they can even link the success
of vibes TCG to moon birds. It doesn't make sense if they would say like, Oh yeah, because vibes is becoming
a top 10 TCG in the world. That means whatever we do with moon birds is going to be successful.
I don't, I don't see that happening. I think they need to figure out what the plan is with moon
birds. If it's going to be launched a TCG, I'm okay, fine. Right. Are they going to license from holders the same way they licensed
from holders with Pudgy Penguins, right? Are you able to submit your, you know, your oddities,
your mythics and your, and your moon birds through a portal similar to Pudgy Penguins,
then they're going to pick those. And then there's some type of, you know, royalty paid based on the ones that they, um, that they choose.
I just, I, I find it hard to say like, because we have momentum and success with this, that
means we're going to have success with this.
And it's all correlated together because to me, there's no overlap in the communities
to your point, Jack, a lot of the people that owned moon birds and bought moon birds that
are probably still holding their moon birds are not pudgy people. Those were art collectors that wanted to be part of,
you know, Kevin Rose's proof and you know, all that stuff like that. And maybe that's changed
now that Spencer bought it, but I don't see a big overlap between the, the, the pudgy community and
the pudgy people that supported vibes and the people that are in the moonbirds community.
Yeah, Jack, we'll get you in here for response.
Before I forget though, I do want to shout out all my audio testers over the
weekend, especially Hizzy, who I think hopped in spaces four or five,
six times. Jack enjoyed, actually all of you on stage could appreciate.
I'll cover this real quick.
So this is cold open material, but probably the bear with us on Friday.
You deserve an explanation at least.
So I switched from the Rodecaster Pro 2 to a duo.
The power button went on my first one and I'm shipping it off for repair.
and I'm shipping it off for repair. I needed, I needed a backup. I like to do, I like the smaller
I needed a backup.
I like the duo.
I like the smaller footprint.
footprint. I was maybe what broke the shower door or the shower wall, the shower glass was my
screaming at the top of my lungs. I didn't really scream, but, um, I was losing my mind. Like I was
on full tilt because I troubleshooted everything I possibly could. I got on the phone with Chris
fly ride, who is like
the roadcaster guru on the planet. Like, I think he probably knows more about roadcaster audio than
anyone else on the planet. It's just a very, as it relates to streaming and X spaces, it's a super
hyper niche. There's like, I mean, right now there might be 37 of us left in the world, but it's a
super, super niche segment of roadcasters i
mean roadcasts are used by djs and audiophiles and there's a few of us that use it because it's
the best tool to connect to x bases and live stream same anyways long story short i i tapped
in all the all the experts went through everything i unplugged everything plugged it all everything i
could do and it just was not it actually got worse like to the point once on
Saturday and Sunday testing the gas they could hear the gas but no one could hear me I'm like
what in the hell is going on my childhood I should have just I should have reverted to my roots
because my childhood had the answer I kid you not after all the testing back and forth
wouldn't you believe it what fixed it is I unplugged it. I blew on it,
plugged it back in and it all worked. I think what happened was I just needed to restart the
ROGECaster, restarted the Mac and something, something in the cache was, or maybe it was my
phone, like either X on my phone or my Mac book or the ROGECaster, something had bad cache. I know
this is really technically expertise here, technical expertise calling it my head bad cash, but some, something C A C H E,
that kind of cash, something was, something was stored bad. Something was trying to do something
that it was not supposed to do. And so everything was plugged in correctly, but because it wasn't
working, I kept trying different things. And I was like, what in the, and then I was talking to AI and, and AI doesn't know this. It's, it's tapping in. It just, it's tapping into what it knows on what it can find online and it's not accurate. So it's telling me the wrong shit. Anyways, it was like, it felt like four hours. I think it was probably like 90 minutes. I was troubleshooting back and forth and testing this thing. Long story short, I had it right the whole time. I just had to power it off, blow on it,
and power back in.
So yeah, if you ever get,
it's still to this day, it's the year 2026.
If something's not working,
the first thing you should do for troubleshooting
is power it down, wait 30 seconds, power it back on.
It works for your wireless internet router.
It works for your MacBook.
It works for your ROGECaster, X Video Spaces.
So anyways, we figured it out.
Not really, but it works now. So I'm not going to, not going to jinx it,
but anyways, go ahead. I think I was at Jack. I lost my train of thought on my, someone,
someone reminded me on my, my, my weekend from, it was actually not a bad weekend,
but it went from like, Oh, it's going to be a, yeah, I'm going to set up the, I'm going to hang
some pictures, set up the back wall a little bit, some light work get this thing i'll do some troubleshoes take me like 20 minutes
and then i go from that go sitting down and like all right the rest of sunday is gonna be quiet
we'll take a little nap maybe even to my shower exploding um needless to say the markets couldn't
face me this week jacket sure's there oh thank you you you cut out right at the end there um
excuse me yeah look uh i um just to joey's point i i think it really just goes down to the fact that
spencer required this ip to connect to vibe ccg to dort's point about, you know, does Vibes get anywhere near the success with a random, you know, a random owl IP in comparison to, you know, one of the strongest IPs that we have in this space, even to this date?
It's a good question. I think you have to understand Spencer's knowledge and experience in the TCG world.
Like he's like one of the biggest traders of magic the
gathering and has been for you know decades at this point his success in nfts follows that so
yeah i i don't know is the the answer to that question my gut feeling from the conversation we
had is that he has a very very good team set up specifically to succeed with whatever TCG that they launch.
And I think the Moonbeard's IP, although, is supposed to be a crutch that they can lean on,
because it is one of the OG IPs.
And ironically, Jack, who was doing like five million impressions over the weekend,
who was doing like five million impressions over the weekend just did a retweet oh sorry a clip
about how spencer connects the comic book era to the 2021 era of um comics basically the ips and
comic books they all come from a very specific era like superman the marvels all of these things dc marvel um and his gut reaction was that that
was 2021 2022 your azuki's your moonbeards and moonbeards was basically the only one left your
apes obviously even cool cats i guess to a degree um that's really the math you're doing is can this
team success just in the tcG world if they do success in the
TCG world he speaks very openly about acquiring that IP specifically to succeed with TCG so I
think there's definitely a correlation there um but yes can they do it without a pudgy
at my best is yes um not financial advice but like but I do think how they look at competitions,
how they look at the TCG world more deeply,
and the background that these guys have,
I think they're about as good as anyone at succeeding with any TCG at this point.
And just being able to leverage NIP, it's not a random owl, right?
It is an owl with a lot of lore and history in
the crypto space i think we would like to see that come back and i think any hints of moonbirds coming
back will rally the troops quite aggressively i think if they do succeed like we all love dumping
on a terrible experience in 2026 when we really should be past that.
But I think if they start making the right moves and succeed with those
moves, I do think the majority of web free will just be like, thank God,
we got a better arc to this story where Cairo basically just, you know,
gets a W and turns it into an L.
I hope so.
I'm with you.
I hope to see that. I think it'd be good for
not just Burr's, but the space at large.
My genuine concern
while they're separate, right? Like, does the
Burr TGE directly correlate
to the future success of Vibes?
No, not directly.
Indirectly, I think it absolutely does. And even when you say like, oh, the team, I think there's now, at minimum, there's doubt
in the team. Whereas a few months ago, I don't think there was much doubt. Like the team was,
it's just like, it is, I'll tell you one thing that this has convinced me to do, I will never drop a token. We've talked, if I do, it's only to,
it's only to qualify for some claim or to get access to some streaming.
Like if you're leading an NFT brand and you drop a token,
like the amount of pressure and added, I don't know what to call it.
Like pressure it puts on the team is just tremendous.
And it's hard. It's hard to execute. And I do. I think now there's baggage. I think now it creates a little bit of doubt.
And I think it brings with it baggage of
a sour taste in the mouth of some individuals who might have previously
went out and max bought the Vibes TGE.
I also think that if you are dropping a token,
those, again, not to make it as PVP,
I'm not doing that,
but I like it at Direct where I think it's easier,
better long-term for the token for it to open up low
than these multi-hundred million dollar valuations to where there's not much else going on.
It's, it's likely down only. And then you get people underwater and then you've got, you know,
at Riggs you should use the word utility debt because people bought, because expecting all this utility and,
and the, and the, these collections and that just dried up. And now it's like, okay, well, I'm, I'm holding art.
You also mentioned comics and passing makes me sad so people shout out the hoodie and the abstract i love it too it's
probably my favorite piece of nft merch that i i own um brings me back to man like take me back
to that moment it was just it was so much fun so many exciting things going on in the space.
And it makes me sad that the one who leaned into the comic got a little over their skis,
did way more than this, the comic,
and ultimately led to the demise.
I'm sure there was a lot of mistakes along the way,
but yeah, you probably can't see it back there.
Right in the middle between the between the Babe Shoes box and the Gabe Weiss VCon one of one is the Punk Comic One.
That. Man, I got so like I'm not even into comics, but it was like, that was, I brought one of my best friends into this space
because of Punk Comic 1,
because they were really into Marvel and MCU,
and while they might have bought some Top Shot packs,
they weren't like a sports card collector,
but they loved the idea of, oh my gosh,
I can, like, these CryptoPunks do take off,
and I can get the first comic, like, this is,
they got it, and that ultimately led them
to registering a few E&S domains,
which led to a five-figure airdrop, and...
Sad, sad, but, you know, I do love the hoodie, ultimately led them to register a few ENS domains, which led to a five-figure airdrop. Sad.
But I do love the hoodie.
I'm sure comics are tough, too.
I'm not going to pretend to understand the comic business.
But I do think there is now some baggage as it relates to the Burr brand
because of how things have transpired over the past week
that might lead into their next their next five drops but i hope i'm wrong i hope i hope the thing
cooks and they build the momentum back it's just man what a what a tough week and then
part part of it makes me like sad for future drops like future tgs are supposed to be a lot
of them like i don't even know if you're a team right now. What do you do?
Do you write out this market that potentially could get worse?
Do you drop into it?
I really don't know.
I really don't know what I would do if I was in the shoes of like a MetaMask, an OpenSea, you know, MegaEth.
Fill in the blank.
There's a lot, 40 to 100 of them coming, presumably in 2026.
I just don't know. We will talk, any other thoughts on Burb, we can get it in here in
the next four minutes or so. And I do want to move into a little conversation about just the
market at large, Bitcoin. I alluded to Mr. Tom Lee and Bitmine, silver and gold. And ultimately,
how might we play this market
while also protecting the downside risk
if things do get worse?
But chat, Joey, Mosher,
any other thoughts on Burb or this TG
before we move on?
I was going to say, before we move on to Burb,
I want to know a bit more about this roadcaster
because you're making it sound a bit
like a Nintendo cartridge
where you've got to blow on it,
turn it off, switch back on again.
That's it.
That's the uh
even um we had an IT expert in the chat uh Sean says yep works in IT and that's uh that's still
the number one fix to this day is uh you know always go always go for that first is the unplug
blowing it I get it no I actually sold battle toads a few weeks ago because I'm having a clear
out right and uh the guy messaged me.
He was like, you know, it's not working.
I wrote back to him.
I was like, have you tried blowing on it
and then putting it back in?
He's like, yeah.
I was like, okay, send it back then.
Works on many things in life.
Did not work on my shower.
I remember those frustrations.
No, I think we're at an interesting stage
within Web3 right now.
I mean, Jack touches a bit on the demographic
of like token holders and what those token holders look like. And then Jerry spoke a bit about,
you know, the friction of claiming Burb, as opposed to like, maybe like the capacity to
people wanting to actually, you know, claim it as it were, like, you know, they're actively engaged.
And I kind of feel like, you know, when it comes to Moonbirds, you know, they're actively engaged. And I kind of feel like,
you know, when it comes to Moonbirds, you know, I really do commend them for actively looking at different revenue streams to keep momentum going. I know Jack said earlier about like,
there's this degree of conducive or conditional success, you know, when it comes to whatever
of whatever their ventures are, which is kind of a bit seat of your pants. Yeah, go on, mate. Sorry.
their ventures are, which is kind of a bit seat of your pants. Yeah, go on, mate. Sorry.
Yeah, I was going to say, which is kind of a bit of a seat of your pants approach. But,
you know, I just think, you know, when we look at things like, you know, TCG collectibles,
blind box mechanics, you know, I think that's certainly up and coming. I don't know whether
there'll be a long tail in it. And I have said previously that I really do feel at this moment of time that nostalgia is a business model and,
you know, and people releasing these products, you know, that they're obviously trying to,
you know, create momentum within their brand. And like I said, I really commend,
you know, projects for doing that. And I kind of feel as though, you know, when you look at the,
the TGE, you know, have you got the same people that are
actually actively engaging with BIRB, you know, the token as would be, you know, the collectible
aspect or angle, you know, when you look at like whatnot and people running for, you know, chase
cards and things like that. And I think also when you, you know, Joey mentioned a bit about,
you know, the licensing and then, you know, re-approaching that and i think what we've seen previously um it should sort of teach us maybe a
bit of a tentative approach maybe from moonbirds because i know they switched out from you know
offering exclusive ip rights to their holders to then becoming creative commons like almost
overnight which was a bit of a back step so i think people might be a bit hesitant towards
you know the licensing framework as as an approach. But I,
you know, I think it's, you know, clearly, I think that they're dipping their toe in all sorts of
dipping their toe in different pies, but got their fingers in all different pies,
however you want to frame it. They're certainly trying very, very hard. I don't actually think,
I don't, I don't actually feel as though the projects are forcing the drawbacks here i actually
i actually think it's everyone else i i'm feeling i am struggling at the moment when it comes to the
current people that operate within web free you know where their current privilege um preferences
lie so like you know we you know we previously had like you know the meme coin market which was the
the big boom and now we've seen this sort of flow towards collectibles.
And it's kind of like, yeah, I understand that.
And it's all got these streams of, you know,
sort of gamut mechanics that sort of wind through all of those things.
And so I'm, you know, I'm personally having difficulty to figure out,
you know, like who is the customer base that you're trying to operate towards?
And how do you, you know, actively organically monopolize from those things?
So those are my considerations.
Yeah, fair.
I honestly think a lot of these PFP brands that go to market with not just the token,
but I think a lot of the valuation of the token it launches
is baked into more adoption outside of crypto.
And I just don't think it's happening for the most part.
I think you do, there's real network effects here.
You can get real support from the trenches,
real support from your major supporters.
And often these things come out
and they're valued as if they were some mainstream product.
And that's just not the case.
They're just not found in product market fit beyond crypto.
And for most, not all,
but most have not grown outside the space,
but yet they're valued in the hundreds of millions, if not billions of dollars. And it's just,
it's not baked in any sort of reality and therefore likely leads to number going down
once the initial speculation and hype subsides. Here is shifting a little bit into, I mentioned at the top, the markets, not just
Bitcoin and crypto, but this was a post from Gum earlier this morning. Silver did a 6.6x from the
22 bottom. Bitcoin did a 7.8x from the 22 bottom. Silver dumped 40% in five days after reaching the
top. Well, Bitcoin took four months to do the same the same hindsight isn't even that bad uh it's bad but i can appreciate it's not that bad
uh he also added this chart first time in history that solana has had four red monthly candles in a
row didn't even happen during ftx statistically this month should be green. Just wild times in the space where
majors just continue to get beat up and beat up. And even when there's a little bit of hope,
they're making new local lower lows. Tough time to be in the market. So if you are trading,
make sure you're doing so responsibly, make sure that you're not walking away from your computer,
especially if you have longs or like I said, even shorts open because things are moving
via it's chop, but things are moving violently in both directions. And I don't know what changes the current trend.
I know there's a lot of macro stuff from geopolitical and Iran tensions to still looming stuff from Venezuela and Greenland.
You also have the Epstein files,
which took over the timeline over the weekend.
Seems to be more than that.
I'm not a macro expert,
not going to claim to be one,
nor am I a geopolitical expert,
but just seems like,
I don't know,
maybe some will say the four-year cycle's over.
Saylor, once again, somehow did it again.
Top blasted.
I think even someone called this last week.
It was, I don't know, one of the CT personalities when Bitcoin was crashing said,
Saylor's buying Bitcoin right now at $87.
Sure enough, he did.
They acquired $73 million last week at $87,000
per Bitcoin. It's about $77,000 today. So as of yesterday, they hold $713,000 Bitcoin acquired for
$76,000 per Bitcoin. So still above the Mendoza line, but barely holding on.
the Mendoza line, but barely holding on. And I also wanted to show the ETH strategy,
ETH strategic reserve. The DATS not doing great. We'll look here at DATS with ETH coming in at 2416.
Bitmine, I guess on the bright side, they hold 3.51% of the supply. The stated goal is to get to 5% of the supply.
A little easier to get there at $2,400 ETH than it is $4,000 ETH.
They did continue to buy.
You can see that really about the – well, per this, the only active strategic ETH reserve that bought in the month of January was Bitmine. The only one that's bought since December 21st is Bitmine. AaveDAO bought 9,000 ETH on December 21st.
off. There's still 68 entities on the strategic ETH reserve. Bitmine, though, far and away,
sitting on 4.2 million ETH, which is over $10 billion. And as we mentioned, it's taking a
massive, massive 6.9 million, unrealized, but 6.9 million down. If you look at the treasuries,
they're still sitting on almost three quarters of a billion in cash, but down pretty bad.
ETFs, we had outflows on the 29th, on the 30th.
This does lag a little bit.
I'm guessing we'll see outflows again today with trading open.
But like I said, it's not just ETH.
It's not just Bitcoin.
Gold, I think it's safe to say it's worth sell-off ever. Same thing with silver.
Now, granted, it was following massive, massive rips up, but markets just getting crushed.
Mosher, go ahead, get back in here, and then we will keep things moving.
Yeah, it's interesting because you make a good point about you know what's driving that
price action across those commodities because you know you i think i've always found this
difficult within web free because you try and find social political economical events that sort of
line up with whatever's going on in the markets i've got no idea um and so i i think it's my own
like you know when there was that that bitcoin pullback last year
late last year people were prophesying that you know it was all these long-term bitcoin holders
that were now monopolizing on like new entrants into the space you know like people that have
been holding sort of like i don't know less than three years or something uh but no one was really
too sure and i think to see this again you know amongst the commodities market is again quite an
interesting thing because you know we did previously see when it came to gold,
when it reached all time highs, people were queuing outside of banks, weren't they, to try
and purchase gold. But again, I mean, you know, it's just, I rack my brain about this because,
you know, it's without knowing the market, you can't predict it and you can't necessarily play
to, you know, competently within it. So you make a good point i'm basically it's me moaning um yeah no i i don't know i don't know where we
go from here all i know is there is money to be made every market sometimes it's sometimes
it's shorting sometimes it's long sometimes it's just dca and into um uh into markets and buying like, you know, fear and greed at 15 is historically pretty good time to buy.
I just, it doesn't feel great right now because of the unknown.
I don't know what else to share on the market, although I will say it's not lost on me that, you know, hype is
holding. And hey, is it crushing it? No, but in a market where everything else is getting crushed,
hype is holding. We saw memes. The trenches seemingly might be a little back.
The trenches seemingly might be a little back. I'm not saying they are. And again, those pumps can be short-lived. But I think back to 2021, the summer of 2021 specifically, and people were making money hand over fist in NFTs and majors were pulling back 40, 50%. Like Bitcoin was crashing, ETH was crashing.
A lot of people were just, I don't know,
too distracted on the NFT mania
to pay too much attention to it.
And I'm not saying this is good for alts,
but the activity in the trenches has is it seems to be back uh you know the ai
clodbot took over the the timeline still it's still on the timeline but
draw drew a focus back to agents i look at something like BankerBot, and Banker is, shout out to Meta8 and our
BankerBot fans in the audience, you know, this could go to zero. It's a low, I mean,
the market up on this thing is 1.2 million, but you can see what it's done in the last,
wait, is this the original one? I'm going to make sure I have the right token. Yeah,
no, wrong token. Sorry, excuse me. This is Banker on Sol. This is not the original? I'm going to make sure I have the right token. Yeah, no, wrong token.
Sorry, excuse me.
This is Banker on Sol.
This is not the main BankerBot, which is on...
This was just created six hours ago.
So it is up, but it's not the BankerBot.
I thought it was a higher market cap than that.
I need to do a little more research to find out why.
I'm guessing it was launched by OX Deployer
and the Banker team on Solana, but maybe different
liquidity pools. Not certain. If anyone does know, we can come back to that. But bigger point being
is the trenches, their pairs graduating is peaking. The runners are peaking. First, it was
the Penguin. And there's been several daily runners. I you know i know a guy crocs who stays pretty
dialed in there uh on the fomo app and in the trenches has done as you know it once as soon as
he starts taking profits he'll have done very well uh but he's he's ramped some large balances
uh in the trenches as of late and it seems to be that there's been a little bit of a rebound there in the alts, in the memes.
And I don't know.
Maybe it's a reach here to compare what we're seeing right now in the meme streets to 2021 NFT Mania.
I know that's a reach.
But my bigger point being is that even when macro is not great, when majors bleed out,
if there's things happening, if there's attention,
it, oh my goodness,
I just found the tweet I was talking about.
Sorry for the distraction here,
but it was Iceberg,
Iceberg-y who,
that I must have saw this in passing
and apparently X just heard me say this a minute ago
and it's the next post is served up in my timeline.
January 31st, 3.28 PM,
he says,
Saylor buying $88,000 Bitcoin right now.
And sure enough, impressive, he says, because Say28pm, he says, Saylor buying $88,000 Bitcoin right now. And sure enough,
impressive, he says, because Saylor just announced he bought Bitcoin
at 87.974.
Almost caught it to a T.
All-time
tweet there that's not going to get it. It's not got
only 11,000 views that deserves to go viral
today. I say that
and it's like this happens almost every time.
Which also is somewhat
concerning that buys keep happening. There is still a lot of tailwinds, a lot of things to be
excited about. And yet seemingly number just keeps going down. It's like, buy the dips.
What do I have left? I kept buying the dip and it keeps dipping, uh, that, that mean, um, yeah. So anyways, go ahead and get
back in your motion. And then I've got a few other things we'll hit on this morning. Might get out of
here a little early today, but, uh, appreciate everyone who's adding to the conversation.
Yeah. I mean, you make some good points. I mean, I just, you know, people like, um, you know,
I'm grateful enough to be surrounded by some real big eggheads and veterans in the space. And they're, you know, talking about summoning in the next bear cycle. And I just can't see it. You know, they're, you know, and they've got good logic behind their prophecy in that because they're like, well, look, it's breaking the 50. When you look at Bitcoin, you say, they say, well, look at the, you know, look at the 50 week weighted moving average is broken twice and but i just i can't you know i just don't see it anymore
like i do it doesn't make i mean i say it tentatively anyway right but like logical sense
because like when you look at the administration currently in place when you look at institutional
adoption and their headlines and developments within the space um and those those bounds forward it it just you know i can't help but feel like
like i just don't i mean it's never financial advice but you know bitcoin at 20k it's i just
i can't see it happening i don't i don't feel that way at all i think we've just got these original
initial pullbacks and i think it's just all, you know, it just all is all steam ahead. Yeah, I hope it's all steam ahead.
It can't not be. I'm like, I can't. This is the thing. I get very enthusiastic about the markets,
but I'm just like, there's, it doesn't, I could say, well, it doesn't make sense,
but usually you'll make these predictions and then, you know, the complete opposite happens.
And so it's so, so hard to figure out what's coming next.
Yeah.
What, what might be coming next is hard, hard pivot here, but what might be coming next is the robots.
I saw a funny post.
I'll go find it in a second.
But someone said, you know, Matrix introduced us that the bad guys were agents.
That's like, you know, I don't know when Matrix came out 20, 25 years ago.
And now, now we've created the agents.
That's not, I don't know how we got here, but yes,
Matrix said the agents were the bad people. And now in the, you know,
said the agents were the bad people.
And now in the, you know,
2026, we're all excited to be
helping agents proliferate the timeline.
I'm trying to search for the original post
because there's a lot of people
that are just like always on exit.
Have you seen that robot?
I can't remember the brand,
but they try and showcase it
to like a New York reporter.
And then it tries to load the dishwasher
with like a knife.
And like, it literally looks like, you know,
the equivalent of like a four-year-old toddler trying to like,
and it's so funny.
So I can't remember what the brand is,
but like it's coated in like almost like a wool or a cotton weave.
And if you haven't seen it, I can't remember the brand,
but I don't feel like necessarily the robots are going to take over just yet. i always do feel like i don't know about you but like whenever i'm using
any large language model i always say please and thank you right just in case it remembers you
know like do you remember me because just you know if they do ever take over i want to i want
those read receipts on you know so they remember me for being so polite yeah i don't always use
please and thank you, but I'd
like to say I definitely skew towards
the friendlier side when it
comes to the robots, and this
was the post. I-L-M-O-I.
When you realize the Matrix called the bad guys agents
in 25 years, we literally invented
them. Not great.
Not great.
I still remain the optimist
regarding the future robot overlords
and they'll be
on our side, protective of us humans.
And Sean says,
feel personally attacked, pointing out the Matrix
almost 27 years ago. Wow, feel so old.
Yeah, same.
Same.
Yeah.
Oh no, please and thank you slows it down and use more energy. So this is like,
there's the counter. Saucy sauce here says that's the counter. You don't want to be saved,
please and thank you. You're just using credits and using more energy that's not necessary.
So be succinct, be really quick and short and just blunt and candid with your robots to help them save energy and credits.
We joke, but I, Tom Lee just bought another 41,000 ETH worth 97 million. He is buying the dip.
Good to see.
And yeah, I don't know.
I'm a perma-optimist by nature, but the markets have me a little confused, and it's violent in all directions, seemingly.
Here is the latest from Tom himself. Let me pull this up, and I will share with all of you here.
Tom has this to say.
Bitmine provided an update on ETH and its
cash holdings. As they know, there is zero debt, 4.3 million ETH staking rewards at 2.81% or better.
This is also, I feel, part of the problem with ETH. I don't understand the tokenomics well enough,
but I feel it would be performing better if two things. One,
and I know it changed recently with some of the recent updates where ETH is making more fees than
some of the L2s, but that relationship's always felt way too one-sided to me, meaning it was just
the L2s were getting rich and ETH wasn't raking hardly anything in fees. 2.81%, not great. I mean,
you can earn far more than out of stables right now. Why would you put that capital at risk
for ETH staking at just 2.81%? You can earn more in probably some fiat bank accounts at this moment.
586 million of cash earning money market yields at 3.5 to 3.9%.
So again, their cash earning more than their state ETH.
And company built to ride out ETH and crypto volatility.
This is great.
That is earning income daily.
Also great.
And the fact that they're not leveraged.
It's the zero debt.
So they don't have to become a forced sell.
That was the question I asked.
What happens if Bitmine becomes a forced seller would be concerning, but they have no debt.
There really isn't, they don't have to be a forced seller. They do have the 10.7 billion
in total crypto plus moonshots. That's a lot of ETH, apparently 44.2 million at $23.17 on Coinbase.
So that's the current value.
They've got $193 Bitcoin.
They've got $200 million stake in Beast Industries, Mr. Beast.
And they've got $19 million stake in 8co Holdings, which is moonshots,
and total cash of $586 million.
So I do think it's good that they're diversified a little bit while continuing to buy ETH.
do think it's good that they're diversified
a little bit while continuing to buy ETH.
This makes me feel better
than some of the dads that are
just trying to play the lever-up game,
and that is just scary. That is
a ticking time bomb, a house of cards, whatever you call it.
He goes on to say the balance
sheet of Bitmine, or this is the Bitmine account here,
he goes on to say it's noted
above with the holdings we just mentioned.
And again,
Tom just tweeted this out as well in terms of what they're earning on those holdings we just mentioned. And again, Tom just tweeted this out as well in terms
of what they're earning on those holdings. And then as of February 1st, their staked ETH increases.
It's an increase of, oh, that's in the past week. Total staked ETH by week, You can see the number has went up from December 28th to 24th. It was about 408,000
ETH to are now up over 2 million. And this is just the portion of the 4.2 million ETH held by
Bitmine. The composite Ethereum staking rate administered by Quartefoil is 2.81%.
Bitmine is working with three staking providers as the company moves towards unveiling its commercial Made in America validator network in 2026. I guess since we're going to talk about
Made in America, good time to maybe also mention some other not great news when we talk of the
geopolitical stuff and the macro stuff. A peer, we just got disclosed that a, let me make sure I don't want to misspeak on this.
Not again,
not my area of expertise,
but a,
let me pull it up.
Sorry.
500 million,
I think was the amount into,
world,
world Liberty financial from,
yeah,
the, it was the, World Liberty Financial from... Yeah.
It was the UAE Royal paid $500 million for 49% stake in World Liberty Financial.
I don't know.
I was trying to find one post.
This post says that rig rig to the upside.
I'm trying to find more actual,
instead of just commentary,
I'm trying to find some actual data on it,
but it,
Abu Dhabi Royals vehicle snapped up nearly half of Trump's crypto project and a
$500 million deal in the days before Trump took office. I don't know. Maybe it's all, hopefully all in the up and up. It just,
needless to say, doesn't look great when people are buying such a massive stake in the incoming
president's crypto portfolio or crypto company.
I also don't know why it just came out now,
because this would have been like a year ago.
Why it's just now coming to light, I have no idea.
And then it was also like the,
if you want to go deep into the,
I don't want to say conspiracy lanes or go down those rabbit holes,
a lot of,
there was, to what level? lanes or go down those rapid holes. A lot of...
There was... To what level? I don't know.
But a lot of
Epstein involvement in early
Bitcoin and Zcash and
a lot of... I
hesitate to even say names because I just don't
know. And I know you see a lot of stuff on
X. All these are from the files. And I just...
I don't know if any of it's true, unless you're going to go actually look
at the files yourself. Even those could be doctored. I really don't trust or believe
anything. Certainly nothing I see on this app because it's all, it's so easy to fake stuff.
I could have faked the shower exploding. I didn't, it was real. But my bigger point being is like,
it's so easy to create not just fake documents, but you can create fake videos.
And who's going to know the difference?
It's a really, really interesting time on many fronts.
And I, on many fronts, I also would like to think that a lot of this stuff, a lot of these backroom deals have been taking place for probably all of humanity.
And we're just, because we live in the day of the information age, we now become privy to a lot of this stuff.
Sometimes sooner than later.
and I'm not excusing anything that's happened.
And I'm not excusing anything that's happened.
I just, it makes you personally,
it makes you feel like you really,
if anyone's out there saying they know exactly
what's going to happen with any markets,
like they're just making it up
unless they're in the backroom deals
and they know it's about to drop.
It's just like, there's seems to be levers
that are pulled from many fronts.
And I don't know.
It just doesn't, it just,
the lack of certainty I have any direction right now,
like maybe it's bottom.
Maybe we go a lot lower from here.
We'll say CryptoPunks are like a 62K USD.
Historically, at least in the last few cycles,
their floor has been like 50 and then it bounces
and then it pulls the rest of the NFT market up with them.
I'm not a buyer here.
I wish I was a little more liquid.
I might be considering a buyer at 50k,
but I may actually make a move on a V1 punk
if things keep dipping a little bit.
It's one I've had my eyes on for a while.
I see Nervy jump up to stage.
Nervy, I think first time caller.
Welcome to the stage.
What brought you up this morning? Yo, it's GMGM my eyes on for a while. I see Nervy jump up to stage. Nervy, I think first-time caller. Welcome to stage. What brought you up this morning?
Yo, GMGM, and thanks for having me.
Actually, it's the first time I'm attending on Eurospaces.
So I was listening to the part that you said that actually we don't have any idea of the market direction.
This is exactly what I'm thinking about it and I'm analyzing it with myself.
Because all we have to analyze the market is the past market data itself.
And so with past market data, I think in previous cycles, we had euphoria.
We had old season.
We had such kind of things uh i believe
we didn't have such thing in this uh cycle yet but though it still looks like uh we're entering a
beer market and it still it it can bounce back and it's like no one have no freaking idea what's
gonna happen there's a lot of scenarios and uh we have no idea idea what's gonna happen. There's a lot of scenarios and we have no fucking idea what's going to happen. I would like to know what is your scenario for this. Would love to know it.
What's my scenario into like how am I playing this market?
Am I playing this market?
Yep, yep.
Yep, yep.
I am watching.
I am not making any big moves right now.
I may make some very deliberate moves.
I mentioned, you know, we had the burb chart pulled up earlier,
and it just seems to me that the market makers are protecting the 200 million FDV floor.
That seems to be, I mean, since the 30th, seems to be pretty consistent.
Every time it touches 200 million, it gets bought up.
So if they introduce perps on Hyperliquid or LiDAR or one of these other non-MEX perp decks,
I mean, there's very, very, very short-term trades. hyper liquid or lighter or one of these other non-mex perp decks is i may i may just i mean
there's very very very short-term trades like within it with within the day for sure i'm not
going to bed with anything open um i may look to explore some new protocols i may look to
i'm not saying farm but i may look go, like, what is out there that interests me and I can get active in?
Otherwise, it's just, I'm not selling here.
I'm not capitulating because I don't know.
Like, could things get worse?
Yeah, but it's also pretty bad right now.
And I just, I can't, I'm not going to sell anything in a market where fear and greed is 15. That's just, you buy rips, you sell dips. And so while I'm not flush with dry powder to be buying a lot of dips, I also am not selling.
maybe do a little bit of trading things that I feel I might have even a
slight edge in something like,
again,
the burp chart we just showed it's could be wrong,
but it looks to me like 200 millions of floor.
So I might trade that.
It's a week away,
but mega ETH launches their main net next on the ninth,
something I'm passionate about.
I invested,
I do all the fluff and got in there,
one of their ICO rounds. And so I've said for a while, I'm going to. I invested, I dual to Fluffle and got in one of their ICO rounds.
And so I've said for a while,
I'm going to be active on there.
I plan to continue that.
And actually, I think when markets are like this,
it's sometimes easier just to not trade
like you might be trading
when markets are just ripping,
but rather do some deep dives.
I think back I mentioned 2021 and when the market was not great,
I was playing a lot of Zed, Zed Run, the horse, digital horse game,
breeding horses and selling horses.
I got a deep understanding of that game and put myself in a plus EV position
and did pretty well despite market conditions.
That's, I think, how I'm playing is looking for where are their hyper
niche spots, maybe where are spots that aren't getting a ton of attention. Hyperliquid just
announced they're going to launch a native prediction market. That's something I'll play
around with. I'm already on there. I also mess around in the Cowshee and Polymarket streets.
So I will explore Hyperliquid a bit. They also did just combine their, I've been beating them up on their UI UX for a while.
I just saw, I don't know if it's done yet,
but they're going to be combining their spot markets
and perp markets portion of their platform.
I think that's a small, but a good win, good move.
So yeah, I don't know if that answers your question at all,
but looking for really hyper niche spots,
things that, and hey, maybe it's nothing in the market at less and putting more time where I
might be, you know,
it might be an hour or two out of the day where I'm clicking buttons.
Maybe that goes down to like 20 minutes and that extra hour and 45 minutes
becomes doing something for the show and the business that would have taken me
three days.
Now it's going to take me an afternoon.
Does that make sense?
Those are the mix. taking me three days now it's going to take me an afternoon does that make sense those are what makes sense actually the part that you said uh i'm not definitely selling here uh
this is what i was looking for is because you surely you might have you know holding already
something so what do you think right here that what's going to happen lower uh beer market for
two years or bounce back movie so i think most people are not selling here actually
about the moonbirds the burp I had a question do you think because you know burps it was I think
the only token recently launching and does have an airdrop and not instantly dumping and not going below the TG open price.
Do you think that they were planned this to not, you know, open the claim page so they can pump the price maybe?
Because I think if it was, I think it was a really wise move because it was a win-win
for everyone.
You know, it was a more allocation for holders or whatever it is.
And the marketing was amazing.
They allocated SPTs to Kite users.
It means more attention, more eyes on your TGE.
People coming, you know, watching your TGE for $4, $5.
And they might APN.
I think it was a great move by them.
Though I still believe it was planned to not open the claim page on the TG day.
So what do you think about this?
I don't know.
I mean, I saw a lot of people like, hey, this was with intent, the delay.
The Binance Alpha people got their tokens first, and the claim was delayed, and then delayed again.
I don't think it was with intent because even once they went live with it, there was still a lot of issues.
And I think they just, I don't know if it wasn't proper stress testing.
If they did do proper stress testing and then just,
they got hit with some curve balls and unknown.
I really don't know what happened, but I don't think it was with intent.
I don't know if it's necessarily a net positive either.
I think a lot of people have turned.
A lot of people have, even if they're still holding their tokens,
even if they're nesting their tokens,
I think a lot of them maybe have lost.
I think I used the word last week.
Even if they're still holding, if they're still supporting,
they become apathetic to the brand.
And that may be worse.
I saw a lot of people that were big fans, big Burb fans when Spencer took over and bullposting almost every day.
I'm not seeing that hardly at all anymore.
And I think there is still some hopium that this thing turns around.
But I think in hindsight, it's easy for me to Monday morning quarterback today.
I get that.
I've not done what they've done, not even close.
And so who am I to say?
But I think in hindsight, I don't notice that the SBTs played out.
I think it was really drawn out.
I think that was part of what started getting people to turn
is it just seemed like it was going on forever.
And you look at the hoarder count,
there's only 14,000 hoard holders of the BIRB token
compared to Pingu, which dropped on Sol
and was one of the, you know,
hey, we want everyone to get this token.
There's like over 500,000 holders of Pingu.
So I think from an execution standpoint,
the results show that even,
I know Pingu's been out a lot longer.
I'm pretty sure like on TGE day,
they were over a hundred
thousand holders.
So just that part of wire distribution, which is what you want, it worked for Pingu, didn't
work really well for, at least hasn't yet.
And I just don't know.
I don't know, man, you see so many of these, you know, I pulled up the numbers earlier.
I'll see if I can go find it again.
The amount of quarters that haven't claimed yet, it's a large amount.
It's like 35% of Moonbirds have claimed.
So like more than 65% or 65% still haven't claimed yet.
That's not great.
I think it also leads to additional cell pressure.
And yeah, I don't know.
I hope things turn around for them. I just,
I think the tech, whether it was with intent or not, I tend to lean it was not with intent. I
think they just ran into some bugs. I don't think it necessarily was great. Did the price pump in
the short term? Yeah. But it's really just sold off since. And it is holding that 200 million,
but I think that's just market makers doing their thing and eventually they run out of funds so i really don't know i don't know what
i don't know where it goes from here i think something there's hopefully they've got some
other some other activation something else they can drop something else to get some excitement
some momentum back because as of now
even though they're loyal supporters
some have been around since mint, have kind of lost
this was like their, oh this is finally
our moment and then things haven't went
great
so yeah
I did
nest or played the burb game
with the S-Soulbound tokens and I only
had a single mythic so it was like 108 tokens and I didn't nest or played the verb game with the S still bound tokens. And I only had a single mythic.
So it was like 108 tokens and I,
I didn't care to sell for, you know,
half a lunch.
I just decided to,
actually I didn't know I was staking this,
but I,
I did the claim and stake all in one swoop.
And so I'm,
I'm writing it out and reading for them,
but I don't have a lot of confidence that it,
I don't know where they go from here.
And more concerning is I actually think it will potentially negatively impact their their brand like if they do a vibes TCG with Moonbirds
I think they're gonna have less buyers now than they might have had and I'm not saying they blew
their shot on like the the the vinyls but hard for me and it. But hard for me,
and it's really hard for me to envision
them doing any drop,
whether it be vinyls or a TCG right now
and generating $2 million plus in revenue.
I just, I think a lot of those buyers
aren't going to buy again.
I think a lot of them probably bought
because they believe token allocation was coming.
Now, I guess what they do have going for them
is they've got a lot of burb they held back.
It's just now that it's live, you can see the numbers. People will do math. A lot of the speculation subsides when the token goes live. And I think it doesn't impact their plan, their business and how they're building. But I have a feeling it does, at least to some degree, whether it's less trust in the builders, the team, like all this team can't miss to where this team missed now.
They got an L. And if anyone has been in business, they book some L's.
It's like, what do they learn from this and how they respond?
That's what I'll be watching.
Like what transpires in the next month how do they how does the team move i think for a while post acquisition spencer was moving really well and then lost the motion and
maybe it was the soulbound tokens drug on so long maybe it was the market conditions i don't really
know hard to pinpoint but i don't think I don't think TGE has done anything
to help them regain
motion yet
at this point.
But hopefully
there's something else to come. Your thoughts?
Actually, I think they have already
kind of saved the collection
with acquiring it.
Moonbirds, for me looked like
an abandoned collection in before but after they are acquiring it, Spencer I have, I think they are
they are trying their best, they are keep building it. I have been watching it, I have been watching
the floor, it was going up. It was kind of reminding me of the Lucanus, the
Pajri Penguins. It's been a long, but what they have been building, what they have been doing,
you know, it kind of worked at the end. And so about the token, it's a crazy condition. You
mentioned 65% of the holders haven't claimed their location.
It's crazy.
I don't know how is this possible.
It's free money for you there.
You haven't claimed it yet.
I don't know how even is it possible,
but surely when they claim, it's more self-pressure.
But at the end, I think this new team and the way they are building, I think at the end it will work.
So this is what I think about the members. I'm not much included with them. I'm not a holder.
But from someone looking at it from outside of it, I see the team is working. I see the team is trying their best. But yeah, that's what I think about it.
Yeah, again, rooting for the team. I hope things do well. In the meantime, I'll play the burb game.
I'll play the burb game.
Hopefully my two picks win
and I end up doubling my burb
because I have a feeling that token price does not hold.
Speaking of tokens, shout out to Beepic
who tipped with the big Retspa tip over there.
Greatly appreciate that.
He added, I think the SBT felt like farming.
I agree.
I felt like I was being farmed.
And I don't know as if it, I don't know if it did anything for him other than turns people off.
Like I just, especially now, again, hindsight's 2020, really easy for me to say this today.
They did something new. They did something novel. They did something different. I'm not saying SBTs
were new, but it was new approach to have so many of them go so wide, do all those. And that stuff doesn't just happen, right? Like from Kaido to
CoinMarketCap and Solana and everyone they work, like there's a lot of biz dev that goes into those
meetings, those calls. Like it takes a lot of work. I respect that and I appreciate that.
I just don't think it had the intended effect. I think the intended effect was to get a lot more wallets,
get a lot more holders to grow the ecosystem
without having to launch a fourth collection.
And when you see 14,000 holders,
I don't think that was the case.
And I think sometimes less is more.
I think, again, I'm trying to be kind
because it's very easy for me to say this.
And it's easy to be critical of any token in this market, especially one that tried to do some things differently.
They had some technical issues and things didn't go perfectly.
So with all due respect to Spencer and the team, not only do I not think it grew their holder base or grew their ecosystem,
I think by diluting the amount of Burb tokens that could have went to their holders,
I think you lose some of them.
Like, I don't know the exact math.
I think it was a small percentage.
But there's also, it's not just the actual reality of what happened.
It's what is the perception.
And I feel the perception of many holders is that because they went so wide with these claims and everyone who was active online, if you wanted to go claim a soulbound token, you could.
claim a soulbound token you could and you get some burb token and binance alpha holders get
You could get some BIRB token and Binance Alpha holders get BIRB token.
burb token and all they got there is first and all of a sudden it's like the this whole game of
alignment which i think is so critically important for the nft native ips to show alignment again and
again and again with their holder base it just doesn't feel aligned it doesn't feel it feels
like the burb token immediately became the top of the pedestal in terms of the ecosystem.
And I'm not saying that Moonberg's mythics and oddities aren't important,
but they're not as important as the token.
And I actually agree with that from a business standpoint.
The business, OrangeCap, isn't going to benefit hardly at all
if the Moonberg floor goes from 1 ETH to 5 ETH.
They'll benefit a lot if the token price goes from $200 million to $1 billion.
So I fully understand why they would put their priority towards a token it just feels dilutive when you get
14 000 holders half of them could go claim a happy meal worth of burb token
it may not sound like a lot but if you add all that up maybe every burb actual moonbird holder
got an extra thousand dollars like that's real money like i i think i'm making the numbers i
don't know i've not done the math but i i think well i understand i think i understand the intent
and the why behind it i i don't in hindsight I don't think it necessarily worked.
Catching up with the chat here, still have to claim BIRB for buying the vinyls.
Someone asked earlier, how much do we know?
I don't know exactly how much was allocated to the vinyls,
but I do believe it was a substantial amount because the Soulbound tokens were so low.
The Soulbound tokens were like 15, 20 BIRB token.
It was all blended though, so I don't know if we've seen a clear report yet other than how much you got for winning a mythic or an oddity or a burb
or a og moon bird the i got 999 burb token and i only had like three or four
soulbound tokens in that salon wallet so that tells me about 900 maybe were
a result of the vinyls about a 12 pack.
And then, and then the rest of the catch up is on the cold and a Superbowl coming next
Sunday. That's actually in there. You asked the question earlier,
what I'm doing to trade this market.
If I'm not actively doing something else,
I'm not building something or in, in, in another, you know,
maybe a little bit of dabbling online, but reality,
it's probably what,
what player props can I get in on for the Superbowl that I feel I might have a
good, good chance of hitting.
I'll be drafting some way too early best ball for 2026 because I feel I have an
edge this season. Cause most people, especially during Superbowl week,
there'll be people that'll just simply do a draft to kill time while they're waiting for the Super Bowl
and have no clue about the rookie class.
And I did very well last year in the, they call it the big board on underdog for,
you know, the pre-NFL draft best ball game.
This is way too early and you should not get in those
streets right now if you have no clue about the rookie draft and who might go where and the free
agent class because you're, you're at your negative EV against people like myself and others that are
way too deep in the NFL streets. But because I am one of those individuals that's way too deep in
the NFL streets, I feel I have an edge there. So that's, that's, I guess the TODR is I am looking for where can I get it in plus EV.
It's like I've always traded my,
I swing for asymmetrical gains.
And while I trade in buckets,
so I don't tap into my,
I guess I'm not selling.
I'm not,
I'm not liquidating any long-term hold positions.
My trading bucket, while my, the dry powder has gotten liquidated a few times,
and it's less than what I would like it to be right now,
I'll be taking that to where I think I can find edge,
where I think I have edge.
And if I hit, if I'm right, it could make up for some Ls.
So right now, that's the best ball streets.
It may not be the most exciting.
It's also way too far off. And when I say like deep in the i'm playing like three dollar draft so
uh they've got a 20 max entry so like at most i i'll max out the three dollar draft i'll have
sixty dollars at risk it's not again it's more like i enjoy it and i'm good at it and playing
the game to to get a shipper next year but way too off in the future i wish there was um i don't know i i may
have to start paying attention a little bit to baseball i think pitchers and catchers report
here soon and um if if markets are going to be continue to do this i may shift back into the uh
the dfs slash best ball streets where i came from but uh i don't know anything else that you're
looking at that i that i'm missing anything I didn't hit on this morning?
Well I think it was all complete. I think on your side, I believe you explained everything but also I believe
when it's such market conditions the best time for building and what you want to do, what you want to do on this market. Personally, you know, a kind of market also forces you to touch the grass and
I think it's all good. Personally, I'm more going to the gym, more
hanging out with friends and more feeling better nowadays in terms of
going out touching grass and all of this.
So I believe if you are doing something
that you believe in it and you know you will make it,
it's just a matter of time.
So might someone needs to hear this on the audience.
If you are doing something you believe it will happen
and you will make it,
don't bother you with the prices or market dumping or all of this.
Keep doing what you do.
Stay your mind away from your wallet, the market dumping.
Just keep what you're doing and you will make it one day.
It's just a matter of time.
If it's a beer market now for like one year, two years, three years.
If you're doing the right thing, then for the next cycle,
you will make it and you will make it much better than this.
And personally, yeah, I'm kind of sort of doing some stuff
that I've been planning for a while now.
More into content creating, video contents,
clipping, all this stuff, planning for it, I'm doing it.
More gym, more touching the grass, but also not missing the building,
not missing the working, but it's just more relaxing, you know,
because when it's a good market condition, there's a lot of things around
and you can't miss on them.
It's like missing on the money, missing on what you can earn. But when all things go kind of quiet, you have more time for anything that you want to do, you love to do.
So also, this is what's going on on my side.
I don't know how it sounds to you.
Yeah, no, I think that's real alpha. Touch some grass. If you're not active,
get active. Learn a new skill. Maybe it's
how to eat healthy. Maybe it's learning how to cook better.
If the gym and lifting weights isn't your thing, do some cardio.
Even if the weather is cold, go plow some.
I don't know. Go do something to keep busy.
That's not just, if you're not sure what to do in the market, the one thing that's probably not healthy is to just stare at X all day and commiserate over number going down.
Also breaking news, not nearly breaking, but I just saw the post.
So it's breaking in my, my brain is that we actually get an extra 77 minutes of daylight over the course of the next month.
February was the perfect month. We get it once every few hundred years, I think, but it's
the month started on a Sunday. And so you get four perfect weeks, Sunday through Saturday,
the perfect month of February. And by the end of the month, we'll have an extra, almost an extra
hour and a half of daylight. Hopefully the weather warms up a little bit as well.
And with it, the market starts to warm up as well.
But again, no one really knows what's happening.
Things are pretty, pretty volatile.
So if you are trading, if you are looking for places to deploy capital, do so with short-term
timelines, do so knowing short-term timelines,
do so knowing the risk
and maybe look at learning some new skills.
Maybe it's, you know,
go find yourself a good stable farm
on a place you can earn some extra yield
and maybe farm a new protocol,
maybe go explore a new DAP
or as I mentioned,
I'm going to be diving deep into MegaEth on the 9th when it launches.
And I think when markets are like this, if you're looking to not sure what to buy or what to sell,
go explore something new, go learn a new skill. Maybe it's AI. Go jump in the AI streets. And
even if you're not going to go the CloudBot route, just spend an extra, whatever time you've been
spending trading, spend that time in whatever time you've been spending trading,
spend that time in Claude
and learn some new skills.
I'm near certain that's not going anywhere
and likely will help you
continue to grow in your career,
whether it helps you with the markets or not.
And then lastly,
those hype four on Hyperliquid,
those prediction markets
are going to get enabled
along with options.
I'm excited to see what comes of that. We another uh friend of the show going to be doing some things uh you
know leveling up their their prediction market uh game here soon excited to share that with all of
you and um we're back tomorrow uh hopefully a a warmer day in on all fronts both in terms of market as well as the weather. But just, and again,
it's okay to just check out for a bit. Just don't leave. I think that's the biggest takeaway is a
lot of people you will see, especially if this is an extended period of down or extended period
of shop, people will just leave. And maybe they come back, maybe they come back after things are
ripping. But usually by the time it makes it to quote unquote retail, the major pumps, the major opportunity to stack some serious wealth has, you know, I don't want to say it's evaporated, but you miss the big moves.
So don't go anywhere.
You don't have to be trading every day, but pay attention.
We'll do our best to bring opportunities to you here on the show.
We do have some new exciting stuff we're going to be sharing with you all in the near future.
One I'm pretty excited about. I'm not going to tease it much more until we actually do the
announcement, but some new stuff, something that maybe is an area that some of you will get excited
about exploring that's not directly tied to majors or macro conditions. So looking forward
to some new stuff.
And I'm hopeful that, you know, I will say,
they say builders build in the bear.
And if this does stay depressed for a while,
we might see some new novel things on chain
and certainly here for that.
So appreciate everyone who joined in today.
Appreciate all our guest speakers.
Appreciate all the, everyone that shouted us out
in the audience, all those repost bookmarks.
Those YouTube subs go a long way and are greatly appreciated. That is Pinned Up Top. If you've not yet headed over there,
go check us out. The newsletter came out on Saturday. We do that just once a week.
You can join that at coffeewithcaptain.com. And we don't spam you, just one a week,
but it does help us out tremendously. The open rate is going up substantially here in the new
year and also not going unnoticed.
So maybe we tie in our community member of the month somewhere in the newsletter here this month,
but again, shout out to Katie, our first ever community member of the month. Well earned,
well-deserved and appreciate Katie as well as all of you out there each and every day.
I will be back. We're back tomorrow at 80 Eastern time. As Steve would say,
I hope you all have a wonderful, a wonderful day, everyone. Bye.
