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Morgan Stanley Just Updated Its Bitcoin ETF Filing. During a Crash. | Market Check
Recorded: March 23, 2026 Duration: 1:08:23Space Recording
Full Transcription
Good morning, everybody, and welcome to today's episode of Market Check brought to you by BB.
There is no second best live YouTube stream to talk about the markets.
Welcome back, guys.
Happy Monday.
I hope everybody had a nice and replenished weekend, hopefully away from the doom scrolling,
because we all know that what really matters is uh are these tacos that we
get sunday night uh lots to discuss right fake pump real pump bottom end we're gonna discuss it
obviously on this show but i'm snorlax you guys also know me as tommy i'm joined by louie and of
course max might be joined by a few additional oh we got jackas as well uh we're gonna have a great
show for you guys today but before we can get into into the nitty gritty of everything that is occurring in our wonderful wide world of markets,
I'm going to ask if you guys can slam that like button for me.
I'm not going to make the soybeans joke about how the chart looks great, but the soybeans chart does look great.
I prefer not to look at it, though.
So if you guys can hit the like button, run it up. Like I said, we're going to have a great show in store for you guys.
Start the week off on a high note. And what I think is going to be our final full trading week
of the first quarter of 2026, if you guys can believe that. So time flies. But I guess,
I guess, you know, time feels almost like compressed and simultaneously
sped up when we have this uh this like very headline driven market regime um we had i want
to say i think we were down at one point maybe like one percent overnight in the s&p futures
we got a taco very very early in the morning um Um, there's some, it was kind of funny.
I I'm, I'm not going to dwell on this too long, but like there was some astrology at a very
specific time, um, like right around the tariff or right around the taco announcement. So I thought
that was pretty funny. Um, I, again, I'm not going to get into it, but it was like a very specific,
uh, very specific timing thing, like four22 or like 522 in the morning.
It was like this specific alignment occurred.
And what do you know?
We got a taco announcement.
The market bounced at one point.
I think the Nasdaq is up 2% today.
Bitcoin bounced above 71,000.
Are we going to, is the bottom in right on Bitcoin and crypto, this relative strength front running and eventual bottom on equities.
We continue to have this discussion. But really, I think what is what we need to be trading is
probably bond volatility, right? Because the market can move down. But what will clearly
really force the hand of the administration to commit to these tacos is the move index,
right, which had a 30 percent green candle today. I think a 25% green candle
on Friday. That's clearly the pain point for the administration. And that makes sense, right?
Because bond volatility is kind of like at the crux of all problems for markets and financials
in general. So I think that's probably worth considering just trading the move index at this point.
If the top is in on that, all right, well, the bottom is probably in for the market.
And if vice versa is probably true, of course.
But yeah, those are my thoughts on the market, guys.
We're getting a squeeze right now.
I'm personally kind of likening the move to the one that we saw two weeks ago for equity markets specifically. But obviously,
again, I think we're all kind of indirectly trading the move index and bond volatility at
this point, which is kind of unsexy. But I still think it's important to understand what's driving Yeah, nice little squeeze this morning.
Obviously seems it's headline driven.
I'm always skeptical of the Friday sell-offs, right?
Like selling hard into a friday close um
like i don't like positioning into that either way you know because i feel like the monday open
is always pretty unpredictable you know you never know what you're gonna get um so, seeing that today, you know, the S&P came into, I would say significant levels,
probably like the first target of this kind of slowdown or sell off or whatever you want
to call this damn thing.
I don't know.
But yeah, you came into your local range lows. You traded below it on Friday,
gapping up today on a Monday to start the week.
So maybe we get some relief here, right?
Maybe we get some relief, late, late shorters to the move,
feel some pressure.
Maybe we get to move back up into the underside of here, right?
That's always a possibility.
But right now it looks like late shorters on Friday are currently feeling the pressure and possibly trapped here.
So we'll see how this progresses.
Very headline driven at the moment.
Seems like we're very headline sensitive.
But Bitcoin and crypto holding up well, right?
Maintaining their structures throughout all of this,
or at least Bitcoin has.
So that's always good.
And hopefully that's not my famous last words.
I kind of call it a soft taco, what we got today. Like it wasn't the typical taco that we got in 2025 during the tariff laws
when he called for a 90-day pause.
But it's extremely clear that Trump is just sending out tweets at this point
that are contradicting each other each day.
And I don't think it's worth listening specifically to what he says, but it's rather like seeing the market reaction to what he posts.
I think that's important.
And I think it does tell you a lot about where we might be headed
or if you get a future news, what it will mean for the market.
For example, similarly, how we got a news regarding BTC ETS in 2023.
It was a fake news, but market has absolutely pumped based on that news.
And the market suddenly realized, hey, if these ETS are live, people are just, you know,
unpositioned.
And we've never to this day retested those levels again.
And similar situation could be here.
You know, like market pumped today, in my opinion, a bit too much given the news.
Like it wasn't, like it was, you know, like a five-day military pause.
Definitely, you know, sort of like, again, soft taco trade.
But it wasn't something crazy.
The market pumped incredibly well. Wix dropped in an hour so much i think
lots of it gets probably retraded to you know lots of this move but uh it does show you that
people are currently unprepared if uh trump backs off from this and and if we get further the escalation so so again
you know all it will come to in my opinion is hey if we get an escalation the market is just
going to move higher that's a done deal that's what the market told us today uh obviously we do not know if we actually get it but uh
but yeah that's what the market's saying
yeah i think it's based on positioning what's up boys what's up max i don't know it got real
awkward for a second no one was saying anything i was out here and there's nobody for you to say
something no i'm chilling are you having fun trading perps anon this is like the worst environment for perps man
yeah it really is yeah it's well you know it's like you get some like weekend move and then like
you know trump comes out and like puts out a post and like global markets just completely
shift in a matter of like minutes and then we kind of have to figure out like okay like
is that like a scam that's gonna completely retrace or like is it legit and it's just like
well you know that's how do you kind of just have to like
maybe position a little smaller than you normally would and like don't have super tight stops because I mean this week you can almost guarantee you're
going to get a few more of those like head like random headlines you know like
almost a guarantee they maybe will be to the upside or the downside but like
there's no way it's one and done you know it's it's for me 10 10 a.m on a on a monday we're gonna get some more scams this week
i can feel it my scam radar is is tingling yeah as i've been saying max like the the the only thing
people can or the best thing to do in my opinion is really to do nothing like if if you want to
be bearish then uh be out if you want to be bullish be in but
don't really over trade this job do not you know do not sell your position because the market was
bleeding on a sunday based on a trump tweet on Monday.
If you whatever position you take
you need to have tighter
invalidations than just a local price
moves. Definitely
not tight stops.
It's going to be
a wrecked town.
I obviously
am on the bullish side of things
as you guys know.
So I think essentially we will gradually begin to move up.
I do think that the way Bitcoin has been holding an Ease over the past many weeks has been telling a lot.
last many weeks has has been telling a lot but essentially we you know in either case
we gotta wait for confirmation which we definitely didn't get to either side
still in a range right still in a range still in it I would change it. Still in a range.
Tweet incoming.
Yeah.
Sounds about right.
A second Trump tweet has hit the charts.
Right now?
What?
Second tweet has hit the charts right now?
A second Trump tweet has hit the charts.
No, you would know if it hit the charts right now. A second Trump tweet has hit the charts. No, you would know if it hit the charts.
Yeah.
Yeah.
No, there wasn't actually one.
It was more, yeah, a joke.
But, yeah.
You never know these days.
Now you don't.
Well, I mean, the big...
You just kind of have to look at the chart and say,
okay, nothing's really happening,
but it feels like a lot is happening.
But also, unless your strategy is like,
basically just fade every impulse up and down,
no matter what,
then it's a very difficult market to position in.
That literally has to be your strategy.
Okay, there's a move that looks good, fade it.
Oh, there's a move that looks bad, buy it.
That's the only winning strategy, and it has been for months.
So I don't know i mean if eventually that stops eventually we do something but if your assumption
is it's actually not time to do anything then you should just be fading this move
and then we drop back down, fade that move.
I wonder how much money you could make just trading crypto,
fading literally every single move all the time.
Never trust a single move up or down.
I feel like maybe that would be a cool bot to make at some point.
Yeah, it would work well.
The nothing ever happens bot. Because our market sucks and we used to trend,
but now we don't do anything but chop. So maybe you could make a happens bot. Because our market sucks and we used to trend, but now we don't do anything but chop.
So maybe you could make a chop bot.
Yeah.
It's true that the market has conditioned people
into thinking that nothing ever happens.
Ever.
Yeah.
Interesting.
Yeah.
Okay.
I don't know.
Do something.
I'm ready for it.
Either nuke this thing down.
I want a range break
and a real one.
I want a 50% drop
or a 100% pump.
Give me something.
Everyone's all horned up over this little spike on Monday. 100% pump, you know? Like, give me something. This is just, everyone's like all
horned up over this little like
spike on Monday.
Because everyone's just
so deprived of
like, decent
price action. So everyone's just
like, oh, like, look at this
crazy candle on
Bitcoin, you know, or so back.
Like, I can't believe you faded the generational,
you know, weekend low. And I'm just like, man, I hope you're right. But you're probably,
you're just so like depressed because the price action is so terrible. You're just like, oh man,
like Bitcoin moving like three or 4% is nothing, man.
That should happen on Bitcoin every day, which is why we love it.
And now everyone's all excited over a 3% or 4% move.
Dude, where did my 25% days go?
Where did that go?
Where did that go?
I miss it.
I miss it.
It has been really low, yeah.
It has been really low, yeah.
We're a shell of an asset class that once was.
But good days are ahead, right?
No, no, no.
Unfortunately, it's time for even worse days.
Yeah.
The bad days are over.
Time for even worse days. Guys, for how much time have we been in this range compared to the prior one?
What, Bitcoin?
February 5th.
Yeah, yeah.
We're getting close to the same amount of time.
We're almost at two months.
Wait, no, February. We're almost at two months wait no february we're almost at three months
so it's almost the end of march jesus um yeah we're pushing february march
well if it got as long as the previous one which i don't think it will but if it has
then we would be arranging until right until uh half of april until we really get a direction yeah
until we really get a directional move.
Yeah.
Yeah, you get it.
That's great news. I love that.
That's big news for me.
Yeah, yeah.
That's great news, yeah.
Big news for Chud Jacks everywhere.
I don't think it's going to be that way, though.
I think we are going to get the direction
move sooner.
Shoot.
Hoping we could chop for another few weeks.
Yeah, I agree, Jackus.
I'm making generational wealth
in this range.
Every
five minutes, there's a new 50R
microscelp.
If you haven't made it from this,
you should find something else to do.
You're wasting your time here.
This is easy.
This is the best.
It's so clear.
We need Trump to see his shadow
so we don't get six more weeks of chop.
Yeah.
I sleep with the agger next to my bed.
You know.
Like, you think you can compete with me.
Like, 23 hours a day, I'm looking at the one second chart.
I sleep with the agger next to me.
I will say, like, this
weekend was really nice because I barely
like, I usually am watching
the charts on the weekend, even if I pretend like
I'm not. But this weekend, I basically like
just checked out, watched
a ton of basketball. It was great.
And then on Sunday, I came back.
I'm sure we're going to get
this. I had a friend that sent this message in our group chat.
He was like, I can't wait for the overnight bleed to be engulfed by one headline on Monday morning.
And that's exactly what happened.
Yeah.
It's literally this tweet, isn't it?
Yeah. Yeah. This meme. it's literally this tweet isn't it yeah yeah this meme kind of sucks i i do think the market's gonna get fatigue from headlines
though um personally maybe that's just wishful thinking but well it does it's like the tariff
thing like that in the beginning like every freaking thing he said, it was a major, major move.
And then it started dwindling and dwindling away.
But now it's just the same thing but a different topic.
And I feel like you can just keep recycling these things.
Guys, I have a question.
What do you think of base going forward?
Base? Base?
Base as a chain.
Wow.
I'm not as bullish on it as I once was.
What is the reasoning?
I just think they took a complete wrong approach.
I just think they took a complete wrong approach.
They launched that chain with the approach of trying to make it like a social-fy and expressive in a way where it rewarded like artists and social media engagement and stuff,
um, versus the people that actually use the chain, which is the investors,
um, the traders, you know, the builders.
Um, and then they went and said, yeah, we're going to launch a base token.
They tease that now they're probably going to have to walk that back.
So I don't know.
I was a lot more bullish on it before all that occurred.
And then obviously we got, you know, we, the markets took a turn.
We'll see.
I mean, I mean, I still use it.
I don't think it's going anywhere.
I just don't think it's going to be as revolutionary as it could have been, in my opinion.
I mean, it is extremely fast and cheap.
I'll give it that.
that could be good for stable coins you know that's fine yeah i mean what is the like we have
It could be good for stable coins.
That's fine.
Yeah.
so many of them nowadays right like we have uh base we have arbitrar right we have few others
uh they all compete with each other um yeah the biggest use case and features is Coinbase itself, right?
Like I use Coinbase still.
So like I got the base wallet, I got Coinbase, like I could withdraw, like I could just do
withdrawal.
Like if I have like, let's say I sell a token on my base wallet, I could just say cash out,
right?
It'll send my stables to my Coinbase app and then the Coinbase app will send it to my
bank account. Like that's pretty convenient. Um, so like the biggest, you know, feature and use
case is for Coinbase users, which I think is big when retail does come back, you know,
it has that going for it, which a lot of these chains don't like
arbitrum like a normie is not going to go wander onto arbitrum for no reason like unless they're
trying to figure out how to work hyper liquid you know i was about to say when hyper liquid
moves away from i mean they kind of already have moved away from arbitrum yeah you don't
technically even need arbitrum to get to hyper liquid anymore i'm pretty sure you can bridge from
eith and uh and multiple other probably even the bitcoin network actually to um spot that is it's
obviously going to be asset dependent but um once they get kind of i think that full functionality for other chains to deposit Arbitrum.
What does Arbitrum even do?
Well, they issue a lot
of grants so that they
can sell more tokens, but other than
that, what did they do?
It's cheaper
gas, but gas has been
cheap on ETH for...
They work well with Hyperliquid.
Yeah.
They actually don't.
It takes 10 minutes to withdraw.
I think that's pretty good, though.
Like, 5-minute withdrawal time
on Hyperliquid versus a centralized
exchange is pretty good.
I feel like it's too slow.
You can also see the transaction, which I like.
With a centralized exchange,
sometimes you're just hoping to get your money back.
Because you can't see it.
You're just waiting there.
Yeah, that's true.
That's true.
I gotta say I never had a problem with centralized exchange in this regard
so you're clearly not american jackus yeah yeah they only give the americans a tough time man
they they don't want us they don't want us to use the exchanges man usually when I withdraw from an exchange, it's like within five minutes done. No matter
the amount. I have had issues with Coinbase and Mexi before. You had issues with Mexi,
Tommy? No, I'm being sarcastic because like, you know. We saw but uh yeah i've i've used maxi but i've only used it for like
super small amounts because of the issues that have been known with the exchange so
it's really just been a gamble money always there
iran's parliament speaker says fake news used to manipulate oil markets.
Oh shit.
Yeah.
I could tell something was happening because we were getting a nice big, I mean, it was a big gap up this morning.
Seeing some pullback makes sense.
I am enjoying people like watching people rip their hair out while they're trading oil.
Yeah. Oil got wrecked today.
I made this comment on the discord, but I feel like it's not like a small story.
But to me, the Middle Eastern conflict as it relates to markets is kind of a subplot.
the markets is kind of a subplot.
Obviously, I've been viewing the move down and weakness that we've seen in a lot of different
sectors as kind of like a positioning unwind.
And there's just been so much like focus on oil, rightfully so, right, because it gave
one of the most historically abnormal moves in its entire trading history.
abnormal moves in its entire trading history but i still think it's just kind of a distraction
from what's actually moving and driving the markets which is i think like the bond volatility
that we're seeing continuing to elevate like if we want to put a bottom in on the market
we got to put a top in on the move index which climbed to 109
today i'm not sure what it's trading at right now because
it only updates like at the open but i think i i think they are intentionally dumping us equity
sorry us treasuries to force uh trump to back off from this you know and you know that the moment he backs off uh
move will move down move will move down that's funny and um and uh treasuries sorry yields will
will drop with it and the markets are going to pump so it's once again you know it's been the same situation
during the tariff laws you know like uh actually when we look at the move index
louie if you can if you can put it on
move i love that we have a token called move and it's just a total scam
move and it's just a total scam yeah so if you're gonna look at the april april laws maybe at spx
down below you can really zoom in a little bit here on like uh weekly zoom in or on daily?
You want the daily?
Tell that to White Whale.
Whatever happened to that guy? White Whale. Whatever happened to that guy?
White Whale.
I heard it.
Didn't Zuck XBT just expose him as a scammer?
Actually?
Yeah, I think so.
He was exposing someone with a whale in his name, like two guys,
that they've been doing a coordinated FUD to the market and stuff.
Yeah, so here you can see that spike in April lows.
It's been the same, right?
Like Trump starts to threaten the world with the terrorists.
Things get out of control.
He starts to... Because he watches a few markets, I've noticed.
Like he doesn't care about crypto, obviously.
But when... he cares about Dow Jones mainly,
and he cares about yields mainly, or the bond market.
That's like his two most favorite markets.
And when yields starts to spike higher, he cares a lot.
And I think the market's trying to pressure him
into backing off.
I don't think he was the crypto president.
I don't think he can stop Bonvall from spiking.
Well, he can if he backs off, right?
He can't.
I don't I don't I really don't want to get into like the debate on the war
because I don't I really am not an expert on the subject matter.
So I don't want to be like talking out of my butt.
But I can he actually like back out at this point?
Yeah, he is basically from from what i heard from lots of experts he's
basically at he's basically going to lose on this no matter what and he has two decisions now either
he he's gonna put uh base troops to iran which is nuts you know that would cost lots of American lives
the it would be further escalation of the conflict and it would it would drag
for a long time and markets would nuke obviously yields would spike he would be
in a pretty bad position or he has other option which is
to like publicly declare a victory but basically he would have to back off so
like say yeah we've done our part now we are backing off which is what I think is
going to happen because the other option is really bad for him in so many regards. Because, again, he cannot afford higher yields.
He cannot afford low equities, especially going into midterms.
And so I think that the likely outcome is going to be Trump declaring a quote-unquote victory.
But in reality it
will be backing off from the Iran operations and or again the other option
is further escalating it but he is not going to accomplish much now anymore
without without basically putting base troops on the Iran field.
That was kind of my interpretation too.
Geographically, it's just impractical
for an expedited conflict without tactical nukes.
Obviously, that's an option of last resort.
like an option of last resort hopefully i do not have to see that in my lifetime um but
Hopefully, I do not have to see that in my lifetime.
i i mean look i still think like i don't know what the cause will be maybe it's the middle
east maybe it's something completely different i just look at the tlt chart usdjpy those charts
look like they're getting ready for some pretty big moves in their respective
directions. And then I look at something like the Japanese markets, right? Like the Nikkei,
which obviously is going to be influenced by the USDJPY moving higher, because they're probably
going to have to sell not just US treasuries, but also, you know, some stake in the Nikkei as well,
or at least some of the companies that make up that
index and i think the charts are telling me that um an outsized move is coming um in this regard
i have no idea how the middle east is going to resolve i have no idea if that's going to be the
catalyst that sparks it but that's what i see when I look at the charts still.
So I don't think that bond volatility as a narrative is going away.
So to real quick address this, we're trying something out.
And if you hate it so much and it's not actually going to work, then we'll just cut it.
We're not doing it to make money. Trust me. Like they probably would make like they probably give us like a penny okay we don't
have a huge audience there's a theory that we came across that's like youtube buries your content if
you don't have ads on because they don't really have an incentive to push your content because
they're not making anything from it.
There's no partnership.
So we're like, maybe we'll try to put ads on
just to see if they push our content more.
We just turned them on, but we haven't...
I mean, we don't even have enough data to know if it's working or not.
It was just an attempt to see if we could...
The algo would push us a little bit. But I have no idea if it's going to work or not. It was just an attempt to see if we could... The algo would push us a little bit.
But I have no idea
if it's going to work or not. Honestly, I feel
like it won't, so we can probably just turn them back
off, but that's what
was going on. How does that work with a live stream, though?
Does it like...
Do they
start back to where it stopped
and they got to fast forward, or
is it just missing chunks of the
tell me about the ad experience guys how long was the ad what did it show you
like can you skip it tell me what it looks like on your guys's end real quick and has it started
for all people at the same time or does it happen randomly it skips what you missed so
interesting oh that sucks dude we should just turn that off that sounds terrible randomly. It skips what you missed. Interesting.
Oh, that sucks, dude. We should just turn that off.
That sounds terrible. Yeah, but we need to try it out.
I think
that theory is actually pretty realistic
given how social media
works.
I heard a guy, for example,
on Twitter, that
he was posting lots of different type of content, like from different segments, you know, like it can be politics, finance, sports and so forth.
And it sometimes can take a year of you posting before like the algo can say, all right, this is a, you know, finance account or hey, this is a sports or politics account.
And then when it's like settled, it will start to push you again, which is nuts because you have to keep posting for a long time the same type of content.
Anything like, all right, I've been posting this for a few months, right?
And it's not working. So'm gonna change something well and then twitter or like the algo
doesn't know again and jesus the algos on social media and its constant changes is just killing me
because the bots they can they can change very quickly but you as a like regular content creator
who wants to
provide quality you don't have time for this to keep changing but
I think this theory regarding the ads on on on YouTube makes like like it
pretty much has to make sense I think if you have YouTube premium you don't get
ads either anyways that's true plus plus we know that youtube has
been trying to push really hard for for premiums because like all companies today's are trying to for a recurring revenue models for subs for subscriptions right so
it does make a lot of sense that like if you do not have your channel monetized
there is no incentive for people to have premiums.
So it really would not surprise me.
It's called adblock, actually.
Someone asked, how can you use YouTube as a premium. How much is YouTube premium?
I'm curious.
I was kind of thinking about that.
Probably like 12 blocks a month or something.
Not that much.
Yeah, I agree, Manish.
For life, it's horrible but again we've been like we've been
here every single week nearly every single day for so many years straight you know these streams are
big consumption of every single day time and all you see is that it gets buried by the algo
and then occasionally you know some hater pops in starts you know uh raging at us it's like
extremely demotivating so i understand that ads you know here on on live stream is fucking annoying.
It's for us as well.
We do not, as Mark said, there'll probably be like zero monetization from it.
But we just want to do as much as we can to make the channel grow.
If any of you have any advice on how to do that or if the ads solve it, let us know. It's like we want to make the channel grow. If any of you have any advice on how to do that,
or if the ads solve it, let us know.
It's like we want to make.
Oh, sorry, Jack.
And like, you know what's weird is that Jack has said,
like we've been doing this content like every day for years.
We've never once had like a video get caught by the algo,
ever.
Like we've never had a video or a live stream pre-recorded that like
got 100k views or something i've had during like meme coin season i had a few like meme coin videos
pop off but that was i think more just like people retweeting it a bunch on twitter and like
mostly that it was it's never been a situation where like it's caught on you
know like we've never had our content pushed in like three years of making multiple videos every
day so I'm like maybe that's it right maybe it is like the lack of ads where YouTube's just like
fuck these guys like they're not they're not even partnering with us we have no incentive to push
their content yeah I don't know but then I just see all these like goofballs with ads all
over their videos posting crappy analysis and they're blowing up you know and i'm like what
what what are we missing you know what is it and maybe it's just that we don't have ads on i don't know but can we maybe it's this max and maybe we need to change
any crypto for digital assets yeah maybe
we can try
well anyways that's what we're uh that's what we're uh we're doing guys. We'll try it out for a little bit and see if it helps,
but if not, we can
get rid of it. It's no big deal.
We're just
experimenting. We're in the lab
trying some things.
We're up against the big bad tech
oligarchs.
for real
For real.
alright
how's Bitcoin look
did we fill in the
did we fill in the
inefficiency
did we get the CME gap
I think we should
have right
at least part of it, maybe?
Yeah, we definitely did.
And I bet we did.
Yeah.
Beautiful.
Look at that backfill, man.
Crazy Trump would make that announcement just to fill the CME gap, man.
Big, beautiful CME gap.
The biggest and most beautiful of CME gap, man. Big, beautiful CME gap. The biggest and most
beautiful of CME gaps.
Imagine trying to trade this.
Dude.
Hilarious.
This is stupid.
I own this,
but trying to trade this
over Bitcoin.
Oh my God.
Do you know what's nuts, guys?
Now that I think about it, is that the BTT CME chart has been live for longer than 3,000
days.
It's been live since December 2017.
The CME Bitcoin futures.
Isn't it going away too in May? December 2017. The CME Bitcoin futures.
Isn't it going away too in May?
Actually? I don't think it is, but I think that they are stopping the...
like they're gonna introduce the 24-7 trading.
That makes sense.
I was thinking about that
how weird it is that that wasn't already
the case for like everything
we're talking about how much money is at stake
like it really
didn't make sense that we have
trillions of dollars of value
that cannot be hedged
or anything
during the weekends
although is 24-7 trading, does that include the weekend or no?
I've heard mixed things.
I think I should.
It's 24-7.
Maybe it's like 24-5, right?
What if it's like 24 slash 6.9
is the more is the more salient zoomer meme now 69 or is it
i'm sorry 24 slash 6.7 i'm sorry i'll see myself out
I'm sorry.
24 slash 6.7.
I'm sorry, I'll see myself out.
Equity bros have no idea what they're about to get into.
Enjoy your 24-7 market.
I wish it would be more like...
I actually don't like the 24.7.
Like, it does make sense, right?
At first, it was like, it doesn't make sense to have 24.5.
Or like, it's not even 24, but like, five days a week.
And nowadays, I'm like, I wish it would be more like ThreadFi in crypto.
Although, like, we haven't done anything on a weekend in a while
like at least not any trending move anything we've gotten is pretty much like reverted within a few
days to my knowledge yeah it's pretty redundant make it stop that's why like if they do take away that cme which i have to look into that
it might actually bring weekends like like we start producing like actionable price action
on the weekend make weekends for the coins again yeah i mean back in the day like weekends used to just be a bullish playground for all coins
yeah it's like every single weekend you'd get a mini all season and then you just
had to make sure not to be holding it on sunday open good times
we used to have a market how did it come to this
are we only here to suffer some of my favorite ever moves happened on a weekend man back in the day
on a weekend, man, back in the day.
That's one of my favorite memes.
How it just gets crossed off.
Initially, it was two years,
and it was like, wow, that was a lot.
And then it just keeps stacking.
They don't even just delete it.
You just go right below it.
I made that thinking, Max.
You did?
Yeah.
Well, when our market dies and goes to zero,
you can just make memes,
and you'll do very well as a meme creator on Twitter, okay?
What do you do for a living?
Well,
not talking about it.
Who cares? What do you do, not talking about it. Yeah, it's,
ah, who cares?
What do you do?
Tell me about yourself,
you know.
Deflect.
So, have you seen
the movie The Joker?
Yeah, so you were like
recording it or something?
No, actually,
I take the little parts of it
and then make memes.
No, see that guy
who went insane
in the movie?
That was me.
It's based on a story of my experience.
Yeah, I mean.
I also like this meme.
Or end-built at the same time. time yeah that's how i feel that's
exactly how i feel but the good news is
it gets off the oven that even the robinson made it in the end
yeah made it back but it was a movie
but it was a movie.
But it was a movie.
It has happy endings.
Yeah, I mean, I wish there was more stuff to look at here.
Is SPX puking?
I can't tell by your candle colors what's going on there.
Yeah, it's coming back down. great some of this big gap fantastic news good I think most of the pump today gets retraced
people get buried up and then it goes to new high based on some new tweet
just like what do we even say about this like oh another day of limp meat pattern from spx okay
all right up or down yeah flip a coin should we flip a coin what should we do yeah bitcoin hasn't moved
outside of this trading range equities doing the exact same thing um mega cap stocks are kind of
Still looking distributive.
still looking distributive
Yeah, I mean, what else is there?
Yeah.
Oil puked a little bit.
Are you ready for oil to range?
Yeah, that makes sense to me.
Do you guys think, obviously Hyperliquid got a lot of really good news over the last week.
Grayscale filing an ETF.
I want to say there was some other stuff in there too.
Very positive news.
Do we think that was front run?
Yeah. Yeah. I wouldn't be surprised if we see a big puke down to here,
maybe even run this, but I still think it goes higher.
but I still think it goes higher.
It also depends on the market.
Like if we reverse here fairly soon, I think this can continue,
but I'd much rather get on board on like a pullback into like this gray zone,
30, 31, take out some late longers,
scare the hoes, right?
He said scare the hoes.
I love that phrase.
That's a Tommy line.
Can't scare the hoes.
Do you know what I also find are really nuts?
Is that
GCR made this tweet in April
not to, you know,
anything, just that
it really felt like this.
Like lots of the feel people feel.
They felt them already in April 24.
Dude, a GCR tweet right now would hit so hard.
Dude.
He's been pretty much...
Some of these new traders, man, they don't even know the GCR lore, man.
They don't even know.
Oh, it was so epic.
Most people probably don't know who John Micah Fee was.
Yeah.
Yeah, that's true.
They just came in and they're like, oh, cool.
I'm going to create my own system and treat crypto like Forex.
And that's my life
paid discord to trade forex strategies on crypto dude buddy like remember ape season man alex wise
or weiss
remember that guy i do remember dude he was trading like a 300 mil position from the fucking
hospital you had like a heart attack and he's like in the hospital room like not doing well
just like in a nine figure position man dude last cycle and then you you even had like crypto
kaleo like slinging like you know eight or nine figure positions just like shoving
bnb on leverage you know like on a random day it was so fun dude it was so fun these kids don't
even understand what like what was around last cycle it was so cool it was so much better man
i got it actually makes me so sad like how just we had it all you guys remember you were
there i mean we didn't know each other really yet but you know how good we had it no but you know
what i'm talking about like it was so fun it was amazing i've been there gandall 3000 years ago
3,000 years ago.
Like we literally
just had like a bunch of
public apes
just criming every
crypto asset higher on leverage.
And things
pumped so hard and they
dumped so hard and fast and we
never were range bound. It was just
always like there was always
a huge move brewing. There was like
one or two ranges i can think back
to last cycle if we were range bound alts were going crazy though yes there was always something
and it was like everything happened together it wasn't like this fractured market
i don't know no i feel like there's been always ranges, no? Or you mean like the peak bull market of 200?
Not as many ranges as we have now.
So, I mean, like, there were always ranges,
but they didn't last for, like, two or three months at a time.
You know, there were a couple.
Like, the tops were distributive, but there was good vol in there.
Alts would go crazy when Bitcoin would distribute now when bitcoin distributes alts just
die don't do anything like if you go back and you look at like both bitcoin tops they
alt there was so much opportunity in alts um so much um
yeah the bitcoin dips would be like 10-15% flash crash in a day.
And then we'd be ripping back.
It wouldn't be multi-month range.
Bullshit, bullshit.
It makes me sad, man.
I used to show up, just log into the log into my computer
open up my like bucket shop exchange that i had loaded up didn't even know if i'd get the money
back you know just it's just being an ape man it was so fun what happened look at this chart man
black rock man two weeks of epic then like eight months of eight months of
just psychological torment yep this is wild dude yeah now i see i see what you what you mean i could
i could visually show you like you'll you see like when you like do like a 10-day log chart and you look at the cycles, look at the difference.
I can show you guys exactly why it's doing that.
It's the D-ball chart.
We got institutionalized.
And traders are now wanting to be institutionalized in a mental hospital.
It's very clear.
What the fuck?
Jen's stories, you are correct.
No one believes. No one wants to hold anything.
This is also correct. It's a scam.
At least most of it is.
You're right. that's true.
I feel like AI is, you know, that real revolutionary technology that we all thought crypto was going to be.
But a positive caveat to that is these AI agents and these bots are going to need a way to transact on their
own by themselves.
And I think that is going to be through crypto and blockchain regardless.
So, you know, crypto being the currency for AI agents moving forward is probably the most
bullish use case we're ever going to get.
So I'm quite bullish on that.
So I guess there bullish on that.
So I guess there's a positive side to that, but yeah.
Sadly.
Well, have you seen that MasterCard bought B, V, and K?
I try to pronounce that in English.
You notice that?
MasterCard bought what um b like uh the company bvnk i'm not sure how it's
pronounced but it's a you know they were a leader in stablecoin infrastructure they bought them for
1.8 billion mastercard and i think it
really shows you how much the world is preparing for the stablecoin uh rails of the future yeah
yeah man that's why i like i'm really bullish on circle um finally getting a little pullback here this thing has been going vertical but it hits
with the meme crypto adoption but stable coins and air coins don't go up yeah literally that's That's why I like Maker. If you get something like this.
I'm a buyer.
Give me pullback.
Love if we could finally take the lid off of a bowl.
This is like the fourth time we've gotten cupped at 30 over the last few months.
Inevitable, or are we going to be able to taco our way back to all-time high this is kind of what happened last time
i still think the grind looks healthier than it did in September and October.
Is this real?
I think I saw that earlier today.
I don't know if that was just now, but it wouldn't surprise me.
Yeah, the tough part is also that with the way he has been tweeting,
you cannot tell what is real and what is not.
You sort of expect anything at this point.
And because of that, I would say,
there's been lots of fake news that's
been floating around as well.
That he said that he would nuke, literally, Iran, which is...
Or Iran, right?
If you pronounce it, Iran, which isn't the case.
At least he hasn't publicly stated it.
Apparently, two minutes before the post this morning,
somebody purchased 42,000 lots of short oil
and the trade projected like 500 million in like a half hour.
That was me.
That was me, yeah.
So ridiculous, honestly.
I mean I
looked at the in hindsight
because I wasn't awake
I wasn't awake for the announcement on
mountain time at least
I looked at the hyper liquid volume
to see if there was any suspicious activity
maybe before the announcement
like 10 minutes before there was a bit of a spike
in volume on the NASDAQ
on the NASDAQ contract
that'd be so fun to just like before there was a bit of a spike in volume on the NASDAQ contract.
That'd be so fun to just be Trump's kid and just do that.
I bet, honestly, Max, if you created a bot that tracked divergences in volume for certain contracts on Hyperliquid, you'd probably print.
Yeah, you're probably right about that. That's actually
really interesting. Like, if you found
a...
If you would just
identify
like, plus
three, plus four standard deviation
of like, buy or sell delta
at like, obscure
times on hyperliquid
that would be a really
interesting signal actually
should we do that
I think we should
I really think we should
because it was
not like a small divert
I mean it was like kind of subtle but
definitely abnormal.
Versus the days prior.
Kind of reminds me of what happened before that Trump coin pump.
Louie knows.
Well, CZ got pardoned, so.
Yeah. I meant the one with the dinner
or whatever oh right there's been many
manipulations I'm sorry
this is why I think James Quinn is like
an industry plant he was long
like 30 million of Trump coin
for no reason supposedly
right before that announcement
you're saying James Wynn?
Yeah. Bro, he's not a plant, bro.
He is a plant, man.
He's not a plant, bro.
No, he's a martingaler, man.
Dude, I knew
James Wynn before
all that happened.
Days before.
Dude, I...
Dude, I knew James Wynn.
Well, okay.
So, how...
Right, okay, okay.
What level...
Right, okay, fucking hell.
Okay, let's start fucking talking numbers.
What...
How many...
Hold on, hold on.
Let me get to my punch base
so I don't mess anything up.
What was your
point for Sage 2?
I'll DM you private and tell you.
No, no, no. Fucking say it now.
I'm not saying it on here.
You're a fucking bitch, Bunch.
No chance I'm saying it on here.
You're a fucking bitch.
He's not a...
He's not... He's not a plant, bro.
He's not.
I knew the guy or knew
ish him
well before
all that. He was a big Pepe
whale. So I was connected
with a lot of those guys really early on.
And dude, he was no
I don't even want to get into it he's not
a plant he's not capable of being a
plant like
I think if people want to point
to that like I get why but
I don't think he's a plant bro I think
I think he's just
no I'm not even gonna say it but there's no way bro I don't think he's a plant, bro. I think he's just, no.
I'm not even going to say it, but
there's no way, bro.
There's no way.
Fucking say it!
What were you...
Hang on. let me just
listen i'm not a native english speaker but i don't think i've ever spoken this way
i mean he was clearly on benzodiazepine so you know what the fuck is that it's a fancy way to say xanax he was clearly he's clearly you know he just took a two milligram
pressed alprazlam you know maybe he had a little too much coffee who knows
that coffee no he had something else depends on what he put in the coffee man
he's on a cocktail of uppers and downers yeah man he took a street hulk and
went night night on a space and couldn't get his words out so
he was on that tranquilizer man
if you could find the right combination of stimulants and downers you might find an edge in this market
i just love that eyebrow at the end.
Oops.
Bring back George Bush, bro.
We didn't know what we had with George Bush.
What do you mean?
He was a baby eater as well.
They all are, aren't they, man?
Yeah.
I was telling my wife about the
Now Watch This drive clip over the
yes so American so funny I'm telling you guys the the only thing holding this
world together is that there are so many psychopaths that are holding each other
you know at the ground That's the only way.
There's an actual competition between the psychopaths and they are all at the top.
But if there was only one
it would be really bad. But because of the competition between them
that's the only way.
They'll just take turns blackmailing each other pretty much yeah like
like the other day when epstein you know uh sorry when uh when bill gates bullied
epstein by not giving hate to say like a favorite
per se right because there's no good stories in that but i i did find it funny um that bill gates
was like epstein did not like bill Gates. Because he was just a weirdo.
Yeah.
Dude, how about that Palm Beach Pete guy
I keep seeing all over X?
The like Epstein look-alike guy?
Have you seen that?
I did.
I saw somebody joke about there are probably
a million people in Florida that look just like this yeah
for sure for sure the guy's trying to get like famous now or something he's like
he's like posting video it's pretty weird never miss an opportunity i guess these days
that's probably a good spot to show up i think um hopefully you guys enjoyed the stream today
it's a monday a taco monday not a taco tuesday although tomorrow is tuesday so maybe we have
tacos again tomorrow i guess i guess we'll find out. Very headline driven market, but I think we did
discuss obviously what we're watching, how we're kind of viewing things moving forward and much
more. If you enjoyed the stream today, hit the like button, subscribe to the channel if you have
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You can expect to see us going live around 11.30 a.m. Eastern Standard Time.
So we'll see you guys again on Wednesday,
hopefully with more clarity on the market.
But these days, I doubt it, man.
We're still going to have a great show for you, though, on Wednesday.
It'll certainly be entertaining, if nothing else. But
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