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NASDAQ 100 ENTERS CORRECTION TERRITORY | STOCK MARKET TALK
Recorded: March 26, 2026 Duration: 2:15:22Space Recording
Full Transcription
What is up?
What is up? I have to double check that i am able to be heard right now because last time
i was having troubles but i appreciate everyone for joining us for another day of
stocks on spaces red day not green it could be going a little bit better
but um yeah we'll see meta is down eight percent whoa let's tweet that one options mike can you hear me
mic check mic check nice okay cool just double checking you never know on spaces
okay meta been destroyed uh also the nasdaq 100 is on pace to close the day in correction territory, down 10%.
What does it mean?
Absolutely nothing, but it is 10% off of the recent all-time highs, which were in October.
Sorry, I was looking around.
I was expecting Meta to be down to like 4-ish percent, so I didn't expect it to be down by 8% just now.
What's going on in your world, Mike? How are you doing? Why don't you kick us off here while I'm
getting this post up? Sure. I feel like Groundhog did. Really, it's to keep it really simple here,
as simple as you can make it at this point. The market no longer has faith in what the president
is saying. It doesn't believe him him and it's showing him i mean
today he came out and said i'm surprised the oil's not higher and the market's not down more meaning
he's watching it and he's like well you're not dropping that much so i must be okay that was just
a meme the real comment was the 10 votes or eight votes and i saw a bloomberg report that nothing's
gone through yeah i mean look my point is this nobody The market doesn't believe him anymore, which is a problem, right?
It doesn't really know what's real, what's not anymore.
And I think that's really the issue that's come up here.
And so the more he speaks, and he speaks nonstop lately, the more the market just sits there and just gets discussed and turns away because nothing's changing.
changing it's not seeing any actual changes in what's going on over there so if you accept that
It's not seeing any actual changes in what's going on over there.
that that's the case then the market's not going to turn until it really believes that there's a
deal in place iran's on board everybody's on board we're not getting that right now uh his ultimatum
for the new deadline i think is it sunday saturday morning i think it's saturday morning so you know
we'll see how that plays out and you know the
market here today it's not pretty now some things are trading better than others energy strong you
got oil back up again oxy's on multi-year high apple held in relatively well all day netflix was
strong all day and then when i was out walking duke had that pop-on talk that they're going to
raise their rates again uh as you brought up, Meta got absolutely destroyed.
Google got destroyed.
There's now all worries that everybody's going to be suing them for social media addiction and stuff like that.
And that the game's over.
It's just one more new thing that's wrinkle being added to the market.
Arm held up well.
AMD, which looks so good yesterday yesterday popped from the opening minute and
then dropped like a rock and is now even yesterday's move back nvidia did the same thing
you know it's just a difficult market uh less is more i found a couple quick trades made money on
nice money on hood gave some back on hood trying a second time and then caught a little trade on
apple with some options and then i i. I haven't done anything since.
I don't like to short a market like this when we're trading off of headlines,
when the headlines are just nonstop coming each way.
And I think the headline risk is for a market pump
versus a market drop here.
And so I just didn't feel like shorting,
although I did talk about shorting meta out of the gate
and I just took my eyes off it.
Boy, did that thing just drop.
I mean, it's just absolutely getting destroyed.
Tesla giving a lot of yesterday's move back as well.
I mean, the market is just not happy, Evan.
And at this point, it's, you know, be extra careful until this changes, whether that's tomorrow or next week.
You know, it'll eventually it will.
You know, the question is just when at this point.
That's fair.
I think one thing that we also... I don't know.
If you want to give credit to
the president,
you maybe don't
want to give all your cards away in the middle of war.
So if you were planning an escalation,
maybe feigning this whole weird stuff here could be the thing listen i'm not here to play give too much
credit in any direction here but i don't know the final war listen the one thing i will say is the
fog of war war is a real thing we're playing the markets here our money is real and stuff like that
but it is the next level and i don't think think there's much that would make someone do the fake news here
and stuff like that in this direction.
Maybe there is just to get the market to stay up and stuff like that,
but, like, war is real, you know?
And any weapon that you can use to throw them off the scent is a viable option.
So maybe this isn't that, but, I mean, it would be a viable option.
I don't think that's what's going on here.
I'm not saying it is, but maybe I'm giving it getting a little we'll see yeah and i agree with the fog
of war right but usually just stay quiet you know it's a different it's constant headlines you know
um they desperately want to make a deal they're desperate to make a deal with me you know it's
this constant headlines in the meantime they don't seem to be caring right and
again i'm not trying to pick i'm not trying to pick on the president i mean it's just the market
has lost faith in what he's saying at this point and doesn't let or doesn't like what he's saying
at this point and that's why we're getting this the market wants this over it wants the straits
opened and it wants this you know to happen very quickly so we're going to hit four weeks tomorrow
four weeks into this. And I kind
of said when this started, I think you have about a month before this, you know, if the straits stay
closed for more than a month, we're going to start to see some real problems. So, you know,
we're going to hit a month tomorrow. So we'll see. I will say what scared me when I was looking at
this stuff is I saw a couple of videos of Iranians using FPV drones similar to kind of Russia Ukraine and it does not seem like the US is ready for that to happen and
You don't want it. I do not want to put people on the ground against that. We do. I don't think we're
By the drone companies, I don't know. We'll see even I know how extended they are, but let's digress back
The other thing you want to think going on here is quickly as crude is nobody's paying attention
But the Ukrainians that war is not over
They hit a huge Russian port terminal in the North Sea and destroyed it
Multiple many drone strikes that's been on burning for now for 36 hours
Two tankers who were in port got caught up and went up with them.
That is another problem for oil, right?
So there's other problems going on here, too.
It's just all feeding into this.
Go ahead, StockSniper.
But nobody's talking about that one.
What's up, StockSniper?
What's up? How are we doing today?
Mr. Wolf Defense.
Yeah, Mr. Wolf Defense as well. What's going on in the department there? A lot. What's up? How are we doing today? Mr. Wolf defense Yeah, mr. Wolf defense as well
Um, what's going on in the department there? Oh, why it's going on?
Yeah, tell me more, you know, I actually did not see this Russia
Ukraine thing I have been keeping it pretty close to do not do anything
Yeah, so I think options Mike hit it pretty well there and I think you made a pretty good point there about the drones
and about the US is readiness for one-way attack drones.
But, you know, pretty much I would say it seems like, again, everything that's being said is not causing as much reactions as we were originally seeing when we started to hear about potential ceasefires or potential deals.
It seems like there's a significantly
less reaction towards when these were first being put on the table. I think Options might
do a pretty good job explaining that one. I don't really want to beat around the bush too hard there.
We pretty much have seen a couple of the defense programs rapidly be accelerated right now.
We're seeing Northrop get... I don't want to throw the figure out there and be
incorrect northrop is receiving a large quantity of money to accelerate um the b21 raider next
generation bomber it seems like that they want that to be ready quicker than we originally
anticipated anduril's yfq 44a fury is now in production which this is going to be our first cca um and it seems like these are
these next generation um programs are being rushed and accelerated right now now uh the market does
seem to like that um in terms of some of these defense stocks um and especially with some of
the legacy defense stocks right there but um it does seem again like this war is definitely
going to be here for a little bit it seems like iran is ultimately attempting to control the
strait right now and that kind of seems like their main objective right now we've seen um
them throw out the idea or the concept of paying a toll or a tax a two million dollar fee for a ship
to cross through uh some ships have apparently already prepaid to cross through.
And again, we saw a little bit of a reaction the other day when that headline came out.
I'm interested to see where that's kind of going to go and what kind of straight traffic
we're going to see ultimately driven with Iran being the tax, the toll man right there.
with Iran being the tax, the toll man right there. But it does seem like again, eight oil boats are
going to be setting sail through the Strait of Hormuz. And it does seem like we are going to see
some more traffic kind of increase through the Strait. But it does seem like Iran is in control
of the Strait right now, which was not anticipated, I would say at the start of this tension. So it's
going to be pretty interesting to see what happens there. Over on the west side of Iran, we're seeing new, or we could say old defense technology being
redeployed that has proven itself. We're seeing some new old defense technology also being
deployed in Iraq, targeting specific militias that Iran is also in control of. But it does
seem like there's quite a lot of things happening out here
at this particular moment. And it does seem like, again, until these conflicts kind of seem like
there's more resolution in sight, it seems like we're in a pretty standstill market. It seems like,
again, we're constantly trading higher to trade lower. Meta is a whole different story. I think
that there's a lot to unpack with that one.
We did also see that they laid off several hundred employees in the process of no longer pursuing
their metaverse attempts. And we do all remember three years ago, if I'm not mistaken, four years
ago, if I'm not mistaken, no, actually that's about five years now. We saw Meta pretty much
completely rebrand the company,
change the ticker, and completely focus all shifts on developing the Metaverse.
I believe that this was a $60 billion or $90 billion loss
that they ultimately ended up taking in this Metaverse attempt.
And it seems like, again, there's a lot of people on the panic side of things
when it comes towards Meta.
And the Metaverse, again, is just one little story of it.
But a lot going on over there at meta platforms right now.
I kind of just thought that that was worth talking about.
We also saw the California suit coming out today.
And I believe there's about 300 cases and counting right now about people being addicted to...
Again, this is just allegedly
what's saying people are addicted to social media apparently and uh there's people suing
meta out in california and meta was found accountable or responsible for people's addiction
um out there in california and it seems like those cases might be anticipated to continue to climb
and i think that that's why we're also seeing uh another part of this massive move that we're seeing on meta today you don't really typically
see many days where mag 7 stock is more than six percent down without a big catalyst and um that's
definitely our catalyst here and i gotta say that meta is probably one of the weaker names um across
the market one thing that i did find pretty interesting and we all definitely saw bitcoin
uh had a pretty bad pullback today um over two percent which uh over two percent today for bitcoin
is definitely pretty rough we're sitting at minus three and a half percent right now so it's
continued even further as the days progressed but we've seen a lot of different names get caught in
the crossfire of this bitcoin sell-off we're seeing like some robin hood down three and a half percent we're seeing some of our irons terror wolves and riots
all really have some pretty mean reactions all down eight percent or so um one guy who was able
to escape this and this might have been the best day they could have ever done this was marathon
marathon holdings ended up selling 1..1 billion Bitcoin. They announced it this
morning and it seems like with this terrible day for Bitcoin, it was a great day for them to
announce this. They are pretty much focused on selling that $1 billion to put that into
convertible notes. They're expecting this to be at a 0.0% interest and this is going to really
reduce their debt by 30% or so, which is really good
for the stock. We saw a pretty nice reaction on it. Some of that has to do with them definitely
having less skin in the game when it comes towards Bitcoin. And then another side of it is definitely
going to be them significantly reducing their debt and improving their balance sheet there.
Another big story that we saw today, Uber is now launching their autonomous driving program out in Europe. This is really debuting in Zagreb, Croatia, and this is going
to be the first place in Europe that's completely using robo-taxis. I'm pretty excited to see how
this one kind of focuses and goes. I think that they could see some expansion. I imagine that
with some of the roads out there, it would be a little bit more difficult and a whole new set of
challenges for them to really map out.
But this is an interesting start towards the robo-taxi move in Europe.
And I'd say that that is one of the bigger stories that we saw today.
We also are seeing a little bit of a battle on the data centers.
We saw AOC and Bernie Sanders pretty much introduced this yesterday. We
saw a little bit more developments on that story today, but it's not going to really exactly affect
any existing data centers that are around right now. It's targeting the construction of new centers
and we're basically waiting to see some more developments on there and see if this ends up taking effect and see how this is really going to pan out.
But I would say that that's pretty much everything that I'm watching today in a nutshell.
We did also see a little bit of Nebius headlines.
Nebius released a new cloud.
I believe that this one is called AI Cloud 3.5. It's now going to allow developers to build AI projects completely serverless,
which is a massive step up in Nebius' game.
They are also releasing some Blackwell functions,
and this is going to basically allow all their clients to rapidly deploy things
and kind of integrate things a little bit more seamlessly
in terms of the infrastructure side of things.
It's going to reduce the need for infrastructure from terms of the infrastructure side of things. It's going to
reduce the need for infrastructure from one of the leading infrastructure stocks. And again,
there's a lot going on over at Nebius, but a lot of the move that we're seeing today with that
minus 8% reaction on Nebius might not exactly be related to the core business, comparable towards
some of the other minor names. And it's because again, they have some Bitcoin
exposures and they are ultimately kind of Bitcoin proxies. We saw iron fall about $4 off today.
Iron's down 9.7%, which is a pretty mean move. A lot of this is going to have to do with the
Bitcoin side of things. And with Bitcoin falling again, 4%, like we were saying, or three and a
half percent, like we were saying earlier, it's going to cause a whipsaw reaction, especially on some of the names that are a little bit more volatile.
One of our favorite ones to talk about on the space is BMNR gave up $20 today again.
We're back below $20, sitting at $19.5 on BMNR.
It's going to be pretty interesting seeing what's happening there.
We did see a pretty interesting launch yesterday on BMNR.
They launched Maven, and it's an institutional-grade Ethereum staking platform.
And Maven is basically attempting to generate about $300 million a year in staking rewards once they're fully operational.
This is going to be the largest strategic staking service the ethereum market has ever seen and uh that
seems like tom lee's latest project that he's cooking on right now and um i would say that
that's another one of the better things or what better things to talk about inside of the crypto
world but again with this nasty pullback on bitcoin and again ethereum as you can imagine
uh didn't perform too well today um when we're taking a look at Ethereum, we're seeing a minus 5% day on there.
Ethereum sitting at 2,043.
We're going to be watching this tonight and tomorrow to see if 2,000 is giving up.
2,000 is a pretty big level on that in terms of perceptions and site levels.
So we're going to be watching that one.
But BM&R breaking $20, Maven launched yesterday.
So it's going to be interesting to see what's going on in the Ethereum side of things. It seems like, again, with some of this negative price action
and negative moves that we're seeing, Tom Lee still remains highly convicted. And it seems like
with this new Maven launch, there is still hope, or at least Tom Lee believes there still is hope.
We'll see what's going on there. We could see this largest staking platform really kind of take effect and
generate $300 million a year. If that is, and they do execute that, that will be huge for BMNR stock.
But we're going to keep an eye on there. Overall, today was a terrible day for the crypto side of
things. And one of the MAG7 names really kind of caved in. And that's pretty much everything that
I would say that I was watching throughout the day
an active day there sir an active day i did see the marijuana selling bitcoin is all it takes to the bitcoin miners to go up right now it was i thought it was an interesting one but i guess
to pay off debt is fair enough obviously a lot going on in the geopolitical world i did see
dimitri joining us up here.
Dimitri, you're not on here too often.
I want to come your way.
Thursdays were the day back in the day when we had you.
And I know you have more thoughts in there,
but I always kind of looked at you as one of our geopolitical guys
who came on here and could talk through it.
So I'm just curious your thoughts on the world
and what we see going on in this market.
And it feels like a lot of the conversations we've had on these spaces from the traders and investors is kind of in a wait and see and a pause market.
And we're kind of really focused on these geopolitical stuff right now.
But I'm just curious on what you're watching.
You got the birds chirping around you.
We're in the outdoors.
We're in a nice place.
Yeah, I know.
I was about to say, sorry if there was any noise interference.
The past two weeks in San Francisco,
the weather was gorgeous.
Last week, I think it was 80, 90 degrees,
like three out of the five business days.
And right now I'm just walking by Baker Beach,
but it's another beach like Lombard
for those of you who have been here.
Anyways, yeah, in terms of what I'm seeing right now,
I kind of have a tendency to agree with everybody else
in a bit of a wait and see mode.
I was so in back in 2024, I wrote a report saying that between 2025 and 2029, you're more likely to see an attempt at a regime change.
More likely than not than any other period of history going back to 79, 1979 to be exact.
Turned out that was true. I think what's
really interesting is to see how sustainably higher oil prices are hovering at. My biggest
concern is this. The Fed has been cutting interest rates even though the, what is it, the PCE,
Core Purchasing or Purchasing Expenditure Consumer Index.
Yeah, I think some iteration of that, not remembering it fully, but that's the Fed's
favorite inflation gauge.
That's been above 2%, as we all know, for years.
And they couldn't really cut interest rates on that basis without essentially undermining
their credibility.
But because the labor market we saw just earlier, Microsoft is announcing a hiring freeze.
I had a source at Meta tell me that they're also announcing additional layoffs.
I think it's going to start in the wearables part of their business, and I think it's going to expand.
So you're seeing all those cutoffs.
You're seeing all those layoffs.
And so the Fed was able to cut interest rates on the basis of a weak labor market. But if you continue to see deteriorating labor conditions, it may not outpace if inflation gets super sticky,
meaning the Fed may be in a spot where they can't necessarily cut interest rates,
even if the labor market is bad, precisely because inflation is so high as a function of the Strait of Hormuz being blocked
and a lot of the geopolitical volatility going on in that area.
As far as Trump's approach to this, I was surprised to see how much harder it is because like unlike
Iraq, the opposition here, I think the thinking was the opposition here is secular. People don't
want them. I think there was the idea that the Shah's son or God's grandson, pardon me,
would be able to take up the throne pretty quickly and work in a transitional government for about two to three years, I think was the idea. I mean, we are still only a couple of weeks into this
right now. But that's my biggest concern is that if that affects inflation to such a degree that
it will impact Fed monetary policy that could pour cold water over the IPO market. I know the two
hottest ones are going to be SpaceX. I think it two hottest ones are gonna be SpaceX.
I think it's gonna be IPO-ing in April if memory serves.
And I know Eyal must just announce that 30%
of the shares will be available to retail investors.
And then the next big one will be-
They're going for a June IPO.
Announce it next week and a June launch, yeah.
Oh, June, okay, thank you for the correction.
You're welcome.
So yeah, we have that.
I know the big LLMs like Anthropic and OpenAI are going for a race to see who can IPO first.
I think those two will be the biggest IPOs, which could potentially buoy investor enthusiasm
that otherwise might be dampened by harsher credit conditions as a function of higher inflation.
So it's like this cascading effect.
Those are the two biggest IPOs that I'm going to be looking at.
And I think that there's a lot of capital that's sitting on the sidelines and private
markets just call it dry powder.
So it's undeployed capital is about a trillion dollars of it.
And in 2024, one in every VC, four, one in every four VC dollars went into AI.
The reason why I bring that up is because there's a security that came out recently
was VCX.
I forget the fund that opened, but it's a security that came out recently. It was VCX. I forget the fund that opened,
but it's a closed-end fund. 20% of the holdings is Anthropic, and 10%, I think, is OpenAI.
And basically, it's access to a bunch of these private companies that everybody wants in on.
I think Databricks is another one. It was up like, what, 1,000% since, what, four or five days ago?
I think it collapsed today by like 50% or so, maybe 30% down from its closing price yesterday. What I saw there was people really, really want exposure to these companies because
these horizontal ones, it's not like a vertical application where it could target a particular
industry. It's they are enabling what vertical applications will be built on top of it. And
that's where all the innovation is being done.
The metaphor that I like to use for that is you don't know who the next creator is going to be,
but you're fairly certain they're going to be on TikTok, X, or Instagram, right? So it's kind of
like that same metaphor. You're seeing a lot of capital flood into that. The anthropic showdown
with the government was really interesting. I spoke with the CEO of Hard Shell AI. They work on a,
they're a private cyber company that works on securing the data before it goes into the models as opposed to securing the models, which is like
what Hidden Layer does. And what he said, he had a good metaphor for it. He said, basically,
Anthropix sold the government a car and said, you can't use the lights at night. You can't use the
headlights at night. And what OpenAI is doing is saying, we're selling you the car. It doesn't
even have the lights, so you can't even use it at night so and i thought that was like a very apt metaphor to explain what that dynamic is and how open ai
essentially was able to sideline anthropic having said that i am still uh subjectively more bullish
on anthropic than i am on open ai i think there's a lot less controversy around them i think there's
a lot more of a sustainable business venture there they have a much more they have a deeper
penetration in enterprises cloud code has been immensely. And I think they're gaining a lot of
traction there. OpenAI does have the first mover advantage. They have a lot of deals with the
government vis-a-vis Stargate, which of course, you know, is a bullish indicator and sovereign
wealth funds pouring into this is a pretty good leading indicator as well. A lot of VCs have a
tendency to follow that. Overall though, I think all those IPOs, those prospective ones, whoever goes first, I don't
think SpaceX plays into this because it's not really competing LLMs, even though XAI
was folded into it.
It's a little bit different.
It's like a space play more so than anything.
Rather than Antropic versus OpenAI, which is more comparing apples to apples.
I think whoever goes first, that'll really take the wins out of the sales out of the
second one.
Part of it's just investor euphoria and sentiment, which is, okay, this is the first LLM that's IPO-ing.
If it's the second one, it may not kind of have that same gravitas and some of the capital that went into the first one
won't necessarily be available for the second.
So that's going to be the one.
Those are the three big ones I'm looking out for.
Overall, I'm much more bullish on SpaceX and Anth anthropic than i am on open ai that's not to
say i'm disregarding it um i still think it's a big player but it's definitely one of the
it's it's the bottom three of those of those three ipos that i mentioned but yeah that's
that's kind of it for me i'm continuing to publish on pantheon insights kind of like my outlook for
oil um you know the latest developments in the miran war i publish it every monday and it's
released at 8 a.m. Pacific time.
But yeah, I'm glad I'm able to come on to this.
I'll try to come on more.
Just recently, work has been unbelievably busy.
I just got done with RSA or RSAC as it's now called here in SF.
But yeah, no, I always appreciate coming on.
Dimitri, quick question for you.
I noticed OpenAI.
I think OpenAI and Sam Altman's going to eventually
get hit hard. I think his ego needs to be checked, kind of like Zuckerberg's when he first came out,
right? When Facebook first went public. I noticed they're trying to clean up their act. They got
rid of their video and then they announced they had gotten into the adult entertainment. Now,
they just killed that already. Didn't they just announce that like two weeks ago? So it seems like
they're trying to clean their act up for the IPO real quick here and get their books probably in a more stable situation.
Yeah, that seems to be doing the case.
I was very surprised about that for the video editing effect that they're cutting sore.
That was odd.
And I think, correct me if I'm wrong, I think there's a reassessment being done now for Disney's partnership with them.
Because I think the idea was partner
with disney so you can put out ip approved content and that you know and i think they
would start featuring some of open ai's you know ai animated creations that would then go
into um open ai software no pardon me that would then go into disney's platform so disney would
partner with open ai any short films that that were done using Sora could then be potentially incorporated
into Disney's platform,
like on Disney Plus or something.
So I know they canceled that.
I saw the erotic content thing.
That was a very interesting angle
to put it diplomatically.
Yeah.
You know, it's kind of like when OnlyFans said,
yeah, we're going to consider
in cutting pornography
and the market panicked and said,
that's like 90% of where all your revenue comes from.
So it was kind of, I thought I saw a similar dynamic there.
I know wall street generally is very, um, averse to touching what you might characterize as lewd content. And, you know, from a PR perspective, I get it. Um, I thought it was also weird that
opening. I said, yeah, we're not really going to do ads. And if we do ads, it's kind of like
a measure of last resort. And he said that a couple of years ago. And then recently they're
talking about how, based on what some of your outputs are, depending what your
subscription is, you will then get ads potentially for those things that you're searching for.
I thought that was also kind of a weak selling point or kind of showed some weakness. Another
one was when, I know I'm like dunking on OpenAI right now, but you know, if these things start
stacking up. Yeah, there's up, they're the one.
Yeah, there's a necessity to mention.
I think the other big one was, what is it?
They're offering private equity firms like 17.
They're offering them some kind of exposure.
I know the number is 17%. I don't think it's 17% of their equity, of OpenAI's equity.
That would be insane.
But they were just showing general signs of desperation.
And while they do have some enterprise penetration, Anthropic outpaces them.
So that's why I'm not going to pull it.
My buddy works for a large company.
He's not the CTO, but he's right underneath him.
And he's all, it's Claude.
Everything, it's Claude.
He has both that and ChatGPT.
He said Claude just blows it a bit,
especially for the enterprise and the programming stuff.
Codex? Codex is OpenAI, right?
I have heard Codex is the one that people are swearing by right now.
For smart people, I don't know. Not myself, clearly.
Well, I've been seeing...
I thought it was Claude Code, the one that's been crashing.
I know Codex was obviously received some attention, but based off of the headlines,
and I know this is not a good proxy indicator, but it's an interesting one, or memes,
they've been showing that Claude has been taking over more.
And generally, it's received more positive feedback.
I'm not sure, I can't speak to it personally about what my,
I'm not sure if I can speak speak to it personally about what my, I'm not sure if I can speak to about what my company is doing. So I'll remain muted on that. But it just generally seems
that Claude is becoming a much more favorable tool to use. One thing also I wanted to mention
really quickly, it sort of ties to what I was talking
about earlier with cyber. This is a really interesting trend I've noticed. So obviously,
you know, speaking of Anthropic, they came out with that debugging code, essentially,
not debugging, pardon me, that security operations agent, essentially, that automates a lot of the
work that used to be done by humans. I interviewed, I think it was either 7AI or Vector AI who said that these AI agents that
are able to essentially, you know, look at the alerts and, you know, look at these inbound
requests, etc., these inbound attacks and monitor them and escalate them, etc.
It reduced analyst work time by about 94%.
The reason why I'm bringing that up is because cyber is becoming more and more important.
But what's interesting is that how equities and publicly traded markets are performing has a massive divergence with how the private market is publicly they're getting
completely screwed crowd strike palo altern networks etc these incumbents but on the private
market side the dynamism is insane you're seeing uh okay insane is hyperbolic it's very dynamic
you're seeing a lot of elevated mna activity particularly towards particularly towards the later end. So they're looking to exit.
Most exits are still done by M&As,
but that's pretty typical for cyber.
For IPOs, though, there are a couple that I'm looking at
that I think could IPO and hold their ground with a moat.
And the reason why I bring that up is very rare
because most of these incumbents have like 10 different tools plus that they offer.
And then that's kind of their moat.
But because securing AI,
for instance, and everything related to AI, not just the agents, but underlying data,
because that's a relatively new market, it's one of these very rare opportunities where you could have a startup potentially disrupt an incumbent and displace them. And that's a big deal because
most retention rates for cyber companies,'s about 90 if you're below 90
that's considered very very bad or not very bad but if it's like 89 that's bad if it's 88 that's
bad if it's like 70 it's like what are you guys doing because cyber is super sticky nobody wants
to switch solutions providers quickly but if you're having escalated ai attacks and you don't
have the requisite tools to counter that at a commensurate level then yeah you're going to
switch from your income from the incumbents to a startup, even if the startup, let's say, you know, doesn't have as many tools as the other one. If
they have AI native capabilities that can counter these AI driven attacks, they're going to switch.
So I'm super bearish right now on cyber from trading it vis-a-vis public markets.
But on the private market side, I'm very bullish on companies that are specifically
targeting the AI part of it. And by AI, I mean, either securing the data that goes into the LLMs
or securing the actual agents and models of the users. Because the baseline governance that's
offered by these LLMs, I've heard it from like 10 or 11 different startups that work in the space.
It's terrible. And it makes a lot of sense because then you wouldn't have these startups emerge in response
to fill that gap.
So that's another really interesting trend that I'm seeing.
Of course, none of this is formal investment advice.
This is just based on my own observations and conversations, what we're seeing in the
data.
But I thought that was a really interesting divergence between what publicly traded markets
are doing and what's happening in private markets.
Stock talk, do we have you?
Yep, what's going on?
We were just talking about some,
shout out to Dimitri and everyone else up here,
we were talking about some AI models that are being used,
which one's the most popular?
I know we've talked about it on here before,
tell me what models you're using right now,
when AI is where you think is the best.
At least in your personal use case.
It depends on the purpose.
Yeah, it depends on the use case.
For doing things, I think Claude is the best.
If you want to automate processes on your computer or have it function as a bot, I think Claude is by far the
best. For research purposes, I still lean the GPT Pro. I use all three. I mean, not all three. I
use the big three. I use Gemini, Claude, and ChatG chat GPT pretty regularly I still prefer GPT Pro for
research part of that might be just because I've been using it for research for a long time so like
I know the ins and outs of the model if you will and how to manipulate it but yeah I still probably
use GPT Pro the most but a lot of times what I'll do is I have the Pro version of all of
them. So I will plug in a prompt, like a research prompt, or a question that I have into all three
models, like before I go to bed, and just wake up to the answers. So I do that pretty often too,
to compare and contrast the answers. So yeah, it just really depends on what I'm looking for.
But for stock research,
generally I tend to prefer the answers from GPT Pro.
It tends to think for longer too, which I like.
If you put them on, like, if you have the Pro model
and you put it on extended Pro,
like GPT Pro will think for literally over an hour on some of my prompts. Like when it
delivers the answer, it'll say thought for an hour and 13 minutes or whatever. That I like to see.
I don't really like when the LLM spits a response at me like instantaneously. You know, maybe it
doesn't impact the quality. I don't know, but it makes me feel like it does. So I like to do that. A lot
of times when I'm going to bed or before I'm about to go to bed, I'll put 20 different prompts up
across multiple LLMs and then wake up the next morning and read them all and compare and contrast
them. So the short answer is I still use GPT Pro the most.
The long answer is it kind of depends on who gives me the best answer for a given prompt.
Because sometimes there'll be a prompt I put in and then Gemini gives me a better answer and then I go with that instead.
So it just depends.
I will say Gemini has lagged a little bit, though, as of the recent model releases i think the most recent claude release and the most recent chat cpt release the 5.4 um have been a little bit better i think if you asked
me a month ago i would have said gemini for sure so it just depends um depends on the type of prompt
i would agree with you stock talk and another experiment I've tried is I'll give a question to an LLM,
like let's say, you know, FAT GPT, since we're talking about it,
and then I'll tell it that its work will be reviewed by, you know, Gemini and Anthropic.
And it's interesting, but it actually has a tendency, I've noticed, of course, this is anecdotal,
but it's had a tendency to produce better answers when it knows that it's going to be inspected, investigated, choose your verb by another model.
Yeah, I'll do that. I do that as well. And I, but I don't, I don't necessarily say that I'm
reviewing it from another model, but I do tell them that I'm going to review and double check
the answer. I also tell them to double check all data across multiple sources. Like anytime I do a prompt, I found that to be helpful.
And then you get source links that are more comprehensive as well,
which I like to have that just so I can double check the data.
I also, with stock research, tell them to prioritize information in the filings
over like random websites.
That tends to be helpful for accuracy as well.
I tell them not to use, if there's discrepancies between Yahoo Finance and Finviz and whatever source it's checking,
I tell it to try to, what's the term I'm looking for?
what's the term I'm looking for?
Not consolidate, but compare the data across those different sources
and try to rectify it appropriately.
And it'll do a pretty good job of that,
where it'll point out and say,
oh, these guys have the debt listed as X, Y, and Z,
and that's not accurate because of so-and-so.
And then they'll explain why.
And I like seeing that too.
Or they'll say, oh, there's operating debt here,
and this company, this source doesn't list the operating debt,
or whatever the case is.
So, yeah, I think, I don't want to say they're emotional,
but I have noticed that they want to impress you. I keep saying they, but the models want to impress you.
I keep saying they, but like the models want to impress you.
And so if you put really specific stipulations on like what exactly you want
and what's going to make the answer appropriate,
they do a good job of, you know, accommodating for that.
So, yeah, I mean, I think the more specific you are with the prompts.
And another thing I found is longer prompts produce longer answers.
If you put a really short prompt in like a one sentence prompt,
they're generally going to give you a pretty simplistic answer.
So the more detail in your prompts, I think the better your answers are.
I 100% agree.
I think one thing that all providers have to do a good job of is expanding the context window.
Once you have a conversation that's too long with it, it starts forgetting what the previous input says, and then you have to repeat.
And it doesn't...
I think you cut out. Oh, I think you got full-on rugged. Unfortunate.
I think he cut out.
Oh, I think he got full on rugged.
Unfortunate.
One thing I found helpful for memory in conversations,
by the way, I also turn off memory on a lot of prompts.
And the reason for that is because there's biases that are like baked in from memory.
So if it can go back and reference a previous conversation that you've had,
it tends to regurgitate a lot of things that it thinks you're interested in.
So for example, like when I'm doing like thematic ticker searches
and I'm looking for, you know, five or six tickers in a specific niche,
I'll run it through multiple LMs,
get different answers, different tickers.
But if I leave memory on,
it'll have a higher tendency to refer to tickers
that I have discussed with it previously.
And I don't want that
because I don't want it to have a bias
and like bring up a stock that I already own
just because I've talked to it about
that stock before. So I'll turn memory off on a lot of those. And also what I'll do is if I'm
having like a multi-point conversation. So if I'm having like a conversation where I have six or
seven different prompts in the same conversation, I'll label them. So I'll label them OP1, OP2,
I'll label them. So I'll label them OP1, OP2, OP3. And then if I need to refer back, I say refer
back to OP3 in your answering of this question. And then it can track the conversation easier
that way. Because sometimes when you say refer back to the original prompt in a conversation,
it doesn't really know what the original prompt was. It might refer back two or three responses prior or whatever.
But if you label them OP1, OP2, OP3, OP4, when you're prompting it, then you can refer specifically
and it does a pretty good job of understanding the reference you're making. So yeah, I actually
would say now I turn memory off on more prompts than I have it on. And I found it to be more insightful that way
and provide more new information that way.
Logical, I know you're deep in this tech world,
in the AI world.
I'm curious if you have any thoughts on how you're using it,
how you're prompting it, that type of thing.
Good to meet you coming back up as well.
I would just say they're very good tools how you're using it, how you're prompting it, that type of thing. Good to meet you coming back up as well.
I'm not... I would just say
they're very good tools, and
yes, there are ways to optimize it.
Like, it depends on what you're
trying to get out of it. If it's like, you have a very
specific need, or, you know...
I just think in general,
they're very good tools.
As long as you're using them, that's 80%
of the battle the other 20 is
optimizing how to use them and um you know i agree with stock talk that clod is the one to do things
with i use gemini a little but i just i mainly just for personal things stick to chat gpt for
work things stick to clod um for tasks i justor. It's attached to my Claude model, and I connect
that to Databricks at work, and I just have it run a bunch of queries. So if I ask it to make
a report for me out of all the data, instead like validating all the data myself, I just validate the queries
that it's running.
So I just say, I just look at like what work it ran
to pull that data.
And if I can verify and validate that,
then I don't need to validate all the different data points
that it's pulling for me.
So yeah, very useful tool has made me 10 times
of a better worker, I guess. So it's very good to be able to
not spend all of our time doing grunt work and grunt tasks. And then, yeah, for sure,
like on a research basis, I mean, dude, I can just sit there and message ChatGPT back and forth
and have a conversation and in like three hours become an expert in whatever topic. Like this week, I've been
not spending a lot of time looking at markets because it's a waste of time.
And I've been working on a new diet. And so I've been spending time, dude, you don't even need a
nutritionist anymore, man. It's crazy. You could like dial in everything on your own.
And that's all I've been working on. So yeah, I mean, it's crazy what we can do,
like have it, you know, you just tell it exactly what you're eating or what you want to eat. And
then it can calculate all your macros like for the day. I mean, the tools are great. So in terms
of like stock research, there's a ton I've done in the past, especially with biotechs, because I'm
like, not a biologist. And so I can just constantly ask questions of like,
okay, like what are past results?
What are the peers in this industry?
Okay, why is, you know, this company, you know,
what do you think, what are analysts peak sales estimates for their drug?
What does the current, you know, landscape look like?
What's market share look like from the competitors?
What's the difference between today's competitors versus this new,
you know, entrant?
And then like, what do you think is like a reasonable slice of the pie?
Why or where do they have a spot in this market?
I mean, like you could just go down the list and like become an expert on a specific company.
And I think all that is very good to do.
Sure, you can like validate it all, but I'm not really too concerned.
The stakes aren't all that high.
So yeah, so very good tools. I'm very happy with that. you can like validate it all but i'm not really too concerned the stakes aren't all that high
so yeah so very good tools i'm very happy with that
yeah rug dimitri i appreciate you for that run
yeah i know it's a little bit uh off topic away from um chatots but i forgot to mention so since 2023 we're about investing in this one etf called a qtum it's a quantum defined ctf so pitch book that plays our work our parent
morning a i think it's like a five-star rating after they crossed like a three billion dollar plus AUM
threshold and it's interesting because even though you know quantum is still very far off
and its applications are going to be narrow within very specific sectors and industries like
weather pattern detection there's actually a really interesting case study I heard somebody
talk about where by calculating what let's say the temperature difference will be in a given place, let's say an oil pipeline, depending on what the temperature is and how that will impact the oil flow, traders can then essentially arbitrage that difference in the price of oil based on how much flows through that pipeline and how much the weather will impact it. So that's like one niche case study example about how you can apply quantum computing
to weather pattern detection
that can then be used to, you know,
trade it, for instance.
But I think the majority of it
still be used in areas
where you need a lot of calculations.
I'm excited for it in biopharma.
But as far as the technology goes,
what I think is really interesting
is that private, unlike cyber,
here there's a convergence.
In private markets, 2025 had the highest deal rate activity in both volume and overall deal value.
And in publicly traded markets, you also saw massive net inflows into these kinds of ETFs.
Defiance is my favorite.
BlackRock iShares came up with another one.
I don't like that one personally.
If you add in most of the US companies in there together,
it makes up like basically 30% of the top 10 companies
in the NASDAQ are in this, sorry, let me say it again.
The companies that are in this iShares ETF, if you add all their percentage weights together,
it makes up over 30%.
So basically what you're trading is just the NASDAQ,
which I don't think is a really good representation,
even if some of the biggest companies
working on quantum computing are,
you know, your Microsofts, your Googles,
your IBMs, et cetera.
But Define CTF, I like a lot more.
Their biggest weighting is only 2% of the total basket.
And it's much more diversified.
And there, we've seen a lot of growth.
And the fact that you have hyperscalers and their enablers like NVIDIA
that are pairing with other companies, investing in startups directly,
pairing with laboratories, and you and using VCs pour record money
into it, makes me very bullish. I think there will be a capital shedding moment the same way
you had it for AI. What was it back in October or November? But ultimately, the underlying
fundamentals haven't changed. I just think that maybe at one point, the capital and the narrative
that drove it higher will exceed perhaps where the technology actually is. People have a sobering moment. They'll read it as an apocalypse. It'll go down.
And then I think it'll recover because I think the underlying technology is very promising still.
But in any case, that was just something I forgot to mention that I thought was like
a really interesting trend, especially to watch as far as where the narrative and where the
capital distribution goes. It's got like the opposite of cyber. They're converging rather than diverging.
I know a lot of the, I wonder when we're getting to the point with quantum and Bitcoin and that
whole conversation there and worries coming up. I know it's a keyword that's been talked about, but
and worries coming up.
I know it's a keyword that's been talked about,
but it'll be interesting.
Yeah, I know there was some scares about that a while ago,
but my take on it is I think a quantum has not reached that point.
And if it was getting closer to that point,
I think Bitcoin, Ethereum, all these other cryptocurrencies
would be plunging far more
because one of the
primary value propositions is that you can't really hack it.
So I think if that prime, if that one of those massive premises is undermined, then I think
the crypto markets would have a lot more volatility than they do now.
And that's saying a lot.
So I think there was that technical hurdle and and those concerns around how quantum could break it.
I don't think it's there yet, though.
I appreciate you for joining in, as always, Dimitri.
We do not, I'm pretty sure, have any earnings today after the close.
Let me just give it a quick double check, because we're about 11 minutes from the market being
done for the day market on close should be coming out here for your traders stock talk i was looking
at uh my 52 week low list and uh one name that i i just haven't looked in a little and that's on
here is draft kings dkn, I feel like in previous years
you're around March Madness.
This would have been a good time for this stock.
The sports betting names are super interesting.
I know it's an area that we looked at in the past
and as the rise of prediction markets came up
we kind of were like we were going to
pull away from this area.
I'm just curious if anyone
has asked you about draft Kings if you looked at it at all.
I was just surprised they had my 15 minutes.
Same opinion.
Same opinion.
Trash.
Not trash.
What about Nike stuff?
Nike.
Apparel, food, no interest for me ever.
I don't think I'm...
One more name.
Yep.
It's also on this 52-week low list.
You nailed that Lululemon was also on here, Apparel.
But Snapchat, $4.
52-week lows.
I mean, no.
I've never ever owned...
$7 billion market cap?
You never owned it?
What about social media and stuff like that?
Has that never been...
Never been...
I mean, I've thought about buying Meta a few times,
but that's about it.
No, I've never had any interest in Snapchat.
I don't even use Snapchat. I don't even have a Snapchat account.
Did you have a Snapchat account?
I mean, I'm too old for it. I just don't have one.
Maybe I am too old for it. I don't know.
I guess we're going to just run down this list.
Another name on the 52-week low list today, Mobileye.
Nope. No interest.
It's going to be tough to get me interested in a 52-week low list.
Well, I don't need you to say I want to buy the company,
but the concept of it.
Is Mobileye a one that you've watched?
I mean, geez, since IPO, it's been pretty ugly.
Yeah, no. No interest in that at all all I've never been interested in mobile I nope I'm just digging out Sony's also on here on on you what do
you think of the shoes you're not on holdings shoes yeah well I just said I
don't never do apparel well I'm just asking about shoes of the shoes? You're not on Holdings shoes guy? Well, I just said, I don't ever do apparel.
Well, I'm just asking about shoes,
not the shoes.
Shoes is apparel.
I was talking about the company,
not the stock.
do I like,
do I own the shoes?
Yes.
I wear Nike.
Only Nike shoes?
I mean,
for casual shoes.
Yeah,
I wear Nike.
But what about, what about nice dress boots that you can wear for like 10 years it just depends i have some alan i'm just
kidding it was because you were saying what the wednesday shoes or whatever we were talking about
yeah you're really you're you're really out of questions huh no honestly there's not it's not
much happened today i don't really care enough to try and create into a big thing.
There are a lot of topics that happened today.
Netflix raised prices or is allegedly raising prices.
Meta platforms has had a lot.
Stock's down like 8%.
There's stuff around lawsuits.
But also, there's a story that they're planning to increase their spend on data centers up to $10 billion.
On a data center in El Paso, Texas, up to $10 billion from $1.5 billion.
There's also another story that I saw that was interesting today. Coca-Cola CEO and Walmart's former CEO both stepped down.
Both were talking about AI as a reason for their departures, talking about how they just kind of saw all this agentic AI stuff coming and what the kind of future of this commerce area,
which just said you're not super interested in investing in.
But it's, you know, new people seem to want to be in charge of those areas.
There's been a lot of shakeups at these different companies,
but in like weird positions.
Microsoft letting go of their chief diversity officer.
Elon Musk letting go of a couple people as they plan to go public.
And I saw Meta also letting go of some people people that was a little bit of an interesting one google announcing a bunch of new products um here there's one or two more there's a lot of he said
she said around uh the uh the straight of her moves in conflict uh the 10 boats that trump
came out and said got through i was looking i saw saw a Bloomberg report that there's no said boats that have been tracked going through. So I don't necessarily know
what's happening on that one. So there are still a couple of topics here, but we got a little bit
out there on the early one. What do you think? Did you see the part of the early conversation
of this space and logical, honestly, we can come over to you as well, was around like options,
Mike saying the market just doesn't trust
or trust in the right word,
believe what Trump is saying
around this conflict as much,
that the ceasefire obviously
had a 2% move off of it.
And there's been a little
of a back and forth here.
The latest comments
about 10 boats being let through
and kind of conversation.
Seems like it could have buoyed the market,
but there really wasn't
much of a reaction.
I don't, you know.
No, I think the market today is just reacting to potential boots on the market, but there really wasn't much of a reaction. I think the market today is
just reacting to
potential boots on the ground, honestly.
I think that's what today's market reaction is about.
Do you see any of the
conversation over the last couple
days?
We've had this conversation in the past around
the tariffs, and
there's a specific topic here, but maybe we're
all just getting 4D chests, and the guy is just trying to
throw Iran off the scent that they're
planning on putting boots on the ground
do you put any cadence into something like
hey part of
the President Trump's toolbox here
in this scenario is what he
says and the craziness of it and
trying to put people off the scent
or is it just
anything at any point?
I think that he still possesses
the power to rally markets
on his words, but the difference between
this event and
the tariffs is that
the tariffs were fully in his control.
He could
push
or pull to whatever degree he wanted to. When he wanted to sign a
deal with somebody on tariffs and lower their tariff from 50% to 15%, he could do that
instantaneously. And the markets had no choice but to believe him because he could do it. It's
within his power. The difference now is it is not within his power to just open the
straight right and that's the big difference here is like and a lot of people referred to this as
like it's impossible to taco on this scenario the way that he did last year and i think that's true
um and that's the issue now with markets is like even even if we pull out, even if we take Carg Island or whatever else that's on the table, there's still a medium term oil disruption on the table.
And even if there's no war in the region, insurance rates are going to be higher for that region regardless.
There'll probably be X amount of
shippers that don't want to go through there regardless. And so you have effectively disrupted
oil supply even without starting a full-on ground war. And more importantly than that,
not more importantly than that, but additionally to that, you have Iran attacking the GCC, right? You have
them attacking these Gulf states that have oil infrastructure and they're destroying oil
infrastructure. I mean, there was a lot of headlines from Qatar last week about a lot of
LNG infrastructure being destroyed. And they said it would take years to rebuild. That is an issue, right, for commodity prices.
Now, when we had Cantro up here,
we had this conversation about,
you know, is this like 22,
where rate cut fears are driving the market down?
I think that's really where the comparisons stop,
is that people are worried that energy is going to contribute to inflation, which is going to affect the path of rate cuts.
That's probably true.
However, there's also a weaker consumer and a weaker labor market in the backdrop.
And that complicates things because in 22, you did not have that.
You did not have that.
In 22, you had rates low, consumer strong, consumer cash rich, labor market strong, right?
And so you had a backdrop where rates could go up without killing the economy.
And markets reacted to that because rates went up.
And as a result, equities had to be priced down.
And that's what we saw in 22.
Now, what we're seeing here is, in theory, rates are going up, right? Yields are going up.
So that is rates going up effectively. But in terms of the Fed actually raising rates
from their standpoint, that seems less likely because there is a weaker consumer in the backdrop this time,
and rates are already high, right? If you think of the baseline that rates were at,
at the beginning of 22, there was room for us to raise rates by 5% and not have an impact on the
consumer. The consumer held up very well during that in spite of all the pace of rate cuts.
that in spite of all the pace of rate cuts. That was one of the fastest paces of rate hikes that
we've ever seen. And so the markets responded, I think, appropriately to that in 22. And now
the markets are responding to on one side energy inflation and on the other side yield escalation.
And yeah, we have to cool that down.
We have to provide some sort of reassurance to markets
that that's not going to be an end-case scenario
where we re-enter a rate hike cycle.
Now, is the ECB going to raise rates?
Like Cantra said, there's a high likelihood of that.
There's a high likelihood of international rates going up.
But I don't know if I buy into the idea yet that US rates are going to go up. And that's kind of where the rub is.
So I don't know. I mean, we're in a tricky scenario here. The index structure looks terrible. I've
been saying that for many weeks. That doesn't look any better today, right? Continued rejections off the moving averages, failure to reclaim the 200, failure to reclaim even the 9 or 21, even the short-term moving averages. We've seen no real attempts to reclaim them.
thing because that's the type of action you see going into a deeper correction that's the type of
action you saw in april of last year um i won't say we're setting up for a flash crash because
i don't have a crystal ball but we are setting up for more downside because there's just an
inability for bulls to get the enthusiasm to bring us back above those moving averages
and as long as that remains the case i think you stay cautious you know it's part of the reason
why i'm not adding the stuff that i want to add here, because even though I think that there are some compelling stock opportunities here, I'm not going to buy them the 50 week. Obviously, the week's not over yet.
You still have tomorrow's session.
But it looks like the Qs are punching through that 50-week moving average,
which probably means more downside for the Qs if they cannot manage to recover that going into tomorrow.
So, yeah, there are quite a bit of bad implications on the table right now.
quite a bit of bad implications on the table right now. And we keep getting these green days
where the market pushes up right into the nearest moving average and doesn't close above it. And
then you get these types of days to follow back on it. So not what you want to see.
I'm willing to sit through it. I've sat through many corrections over my career,
so I'm willing to sit through it. But've sat through many corrections over my career, so I'm willing to sit through it.
But for you short-term traders out there, that's what these warnings or signs are for.
When I've been sharing these charts on X of these constant rejections of the S&P 500,
that's for you traders out there who have the ability to go to all cash and wait it out. And I know a lot of traders out there who are trying to throw darts and and create opportunity i was talking about this yesterday
like the only stuff that's really consistently working in this market are really small market
cap shit codes or otc or adrs that people are pumping and you know if you want to trade those
go for it it's not my mo i don't really trade those kind of things.
But that's really all that's working in this market. And everything else is seeing a lack
of follow-through. Not necessarily brutal selling, but a lack of follow-through.
And that's really the hallmark of where we are right now. Lack of follow-through on the quality
names, shitcos pumping, small market caps, OTC, these types of names, getting concentrated
pumps from big accounts on Twitter. And outside of that, almost no follow through. And so you
either sit through environments like this, if you're somebody who has a style like me,
or if you're somebody who's a trader, you, in my opinion, go to all cash and just wait for the market to resolve. So
patience in an environment like this is really, I think, the best thing you can do.
Wait for structure to recover or repair. At this point, it's going to take some time for that to
happen. Even if you get a big green day on the SP500 and the queues, it's not going to be enough to repair
structure. You're going to need four, five, six green days at this point to really repair structure.
And you're going to need them probably in a row consecutively. If you go back to April of last
year, that's sort of what happened. So you initially had a couple of green days to bring us back up to the 21 EMA.
We got rejected, fell back down, and then saw the real recovery.
So after a fake out, we saw the real recovery, and people were tempted to get short again.
We recovered from 476 last year all the way back to 540, and then got rejected off the 21 EMA, fell all the way back to 500. People doubled down
on their shorts at 500, and then we recovered. Then we jumped all the way to the 580s, right,
within a matter of a couple of weeks. So recoveries and index structure monitoring isn't always easy.
You know, sometimes you get, there's a lot of fake outs. There's a lot of what looks like a
dead cat bounce and then ends up turning into a real recovery.
In this case, we've seen no attempt at any sort of recovery.
Like just since February 26th
is when the market really started breaking down.
So that's about exactly a month ago.
We were trading at 691 on SPY.
Now we're trading at 645 on SPY.
Since February 26th, there has been no
attempt to reclaim the moving averages. I mean, March 2nd, we tried, failed at the 21. March 4th,
we tried, failed at the 21. March 9th, we tried, failed at the 100-day. March 16th, we tried,
failed at the 9 EMA. March 17th, we tried, failed at the 9 EMA. March 17th, we tried, failed at the 9 EMA.
March 23rd, we tried, failed at the 9 EMA.
March 25th, as in yesterday, we tried, failed at the 9 EMA.
So that's textbook, like out of a textbook, moving average rejection, right?
And now you have a down-sloping 9 EMA crossing below the 200-day today,
which is not a good sign.
So you just have to remain patient and either wait it out or get into all cash and wait it out.
Or if you're somebody who's my style, then you just stay long on the names you like,
sit through the drawdown, and then throw darts at the other end of it.
throw darts at the other end of it. And that's what I'm doing. So yeah, it is not a favorable
And that's what I'm doing.
market environment. Currently, it has not been for several weeks now. So when do we start to
get bearish? Well, let me rephrase that. So when do we start to having the hedges on more and maybe
increasing the cash position? Yeah, hedges are really expensive here. So it's difficult at this juncture. The thing with raising cash is that's a pretty direct and easy thing to do. You can just close
positions and raise cash. So we'll see. If markets continue to bleed lower, I'll probably close a few
positions, raise some more cash, wait it out. But for now, I'm chilling. I mean, I took a nice
hit today, but I still have a nice cushion on the year. And so I'm chilling.
I'm just waiting through it, sitting through it.
I've sat through a lot of volatility before.
It doesn't really bug me that much.
I think for newer traders who have tighter cost basis, who are buried under price, I
think it's more difficult if you're in that situation.
But yeah, I'm just chilling,
just waiting it out. We'll see. I mean, I don't want to give you a demarcation or a line in the sand where my bias is going to flip permanently bearish. But you always want to keep your mind
open for recovery in markets like this. I think going into the April data is really what's going to dictate a lot.
Because if the April inflation data is really bad, yields are going to probably spike again.
And, you know, it's going to put a lot of pressure on the market.
So we have to hope that the April data maybe gives us some signs of hope,
not necessarily hope in the sense of the economy is good,
but it could also be hope in the sense of weak labor data, right?
Because you get weak labor data that could stall yields in their path to rising.
And so that's another factor that I'm keeping an eye on as well.
But for now, just sitting on my hands, as I've been saying,
and as I've been doing for the last several weeks, and just waiting this
out, and on the other
end of it,
probably some of the names I'm looking at will be at better
prices, and, you know,
I'll be able to be more excited about buying them.
But for now,
just being patient.
I'm seeing a headline,
Thicker U.
They put out some
preliminary Q1 results.
Exceeding guidance
is the initial headline I'm seeing.
What's the stock doing?
Stock's up 12% in after hours,
11% in after hours.
Thicker U
with a little spike up there.
They're benefiting a lot from that TSA blockage I imagine
Unity no, no, that's ticker
Why are you clear source?
This well what are you talking about?
Unity software ticker you yeah
Yeah, it's actually a little confused.
I thought you were talking about that.
Because I have been talking about you because honestly, that move is freaking crazy.
But it wasn't on my 52-week high list today.
So I assume it maybe moved lower.
Yeah, I mean, I don't really monitor that stock, Unity.
So I don't know.
Logical.
We haven't really come to you too much on this, on the spaces.
You don't have to talk about unity.
I don't know if it's a name that you watch.
I watch it all,
but yeah,
any thoughts to throw into the mix on what we're talking about here?
Yeah.
I mean,
I'm basically doing the latter of what, um, stock talk was talking about.
Um, you know, a swing trader and is not a good environment for swing trades.
I've been an 88% cash for a couple of weeks now.
I mean, I was at like 50 before that.
So I incrementally have been raising cash.
I cut options entirely, maybe, uh, a month and a month and a half ago.
So I've been slowly reducing risk in my portfolio. I'll be straight up though. It's not like I'm crushing it this year. Absolutely not.
It was a tough year and that's exactly why I've gotten more defensive because I've taken a lot
of stabs and I've taken a lot of paper cuts doing so. So when I realized that, you know, the environment is just not very good, then I don't, you know, lean in further.
I take a step back and, you know, we all have different styles.
And so in 2025, I traded a lot, right?
Like I got super long after on April 9th, basically, when we got the Trump taco.
And I held a lot of those positions through the year. But by the end of the year, I was cashing
out a lot of positions because I felt like they ran too much. And obviously that has tax implications
and bad ones because they're short term capital gains. I'm not upset about them because at the end of the day,
if you're paying taxes, you made money.
And a lot of those names that were higher beta, speculative,
things like Galaxy, for example, Galaxy Digital,
I made a ton of money on names like that.
And those things have been chopped by 60% or whatever since.
So I think in hindsight,
I think cutting those positions was good. I'm okay with the names that I made money on. My tax bill was very heavy,
but whatever. I paid the taxes. Now my money is mine. And the reason why, you know, like right now
I feel okay about everything is, you know,
tax bill behind me. And now I'm not, I have a bunch, I had a bunch of positions coming into
this year where I didn't have a lot of gains sitting on them. So going to cash is a very
simple thing for me because, you know, selling these positions is not going to trigger any taxable event, right? So I think, yes,
it sucks that I paid a lot of taxes, but I might as well lean into that as an advantage now,
because, yeah, I don't have to think too hard about the tax part of the formula.
So yeah, I've been in 88% cash. I agree with StockTalk. I
think if you have the luxury to be in cash, I think it's a great idea. I think it's been a great
idea. The price action in the market has been awful since October, really, because the NASDAQ
never made new highs after the highs in October. You had basically a sideways chop if you paid attention.
And I was posting this way back in November,
even when you had that day where NVIDIA on its earnings had crazy earnings
and it reversed the entire move.
The market went from plus 3 percent to minus three percent or
whatever it was it was just an insane fade that day but if you just looked at like over that
three month period in the queues and spy if you look at the volume candles you'll notice the the
big candles on the volume are red and then the other volume is green like the smaller volume is
green so to me when we were in that range bound when
everyone was like getting so frustrated because we just kept going up to that 694 level we kept
doing this low volume flow up and then big you know you string together a few days of big red
volume and so there was selling so every single time got to the top of the range it just felt like
perfect distribution and that's exactly what you would see like in a stage three situation,
where like people who want to degross their book are trying to get the best possible prices they
can. So when they find liquidity at those certain levels, they sell down their book,
they, you know, dry up all that liquidity, then they stop selling because they don't want to sell
it any lower. And so seriously, if you just look up the daily chart on the queues and spy you will see it so
clearly you have this range the sellers come in at the top of the range they put their you know
foot off the gas they let people buy it back up by the way stuff it back down we got a little uh
truth social post Trump quote here.
As per a running government request,
please let this statement serve to represent that I am pausing the period of energy plant destruction by 10 days to Monday, April 6th, at 8 p.m. Eastern.
Talks are ongoing, despite erroneous statements to the contrary by the fake news media and others.
They are going very well.
Thank you for your attention to this matter, President Donald J. Trump.
That is a true social post.
I am seeing QQQ with a little tick up here in After Hours.
Nobody believes this guy anymore.
He's losing credibility.
Every taco or quote unquote taco is just getting faded because, you know, you get conflicting.
It's so funny how this resembles literally one year ago to the day basically because you had the tariff headlines and it's
like oh well you know we're we're doing this no the tariffs are off and tariffs are on and
and actually no we're gonna destroy china and it's like all right dude no nobody cares anymore
unless you actually see something change um yeah, it'll be interesting because, yeah, like StocksRoy was saying,
queues and SPY below the 50 week, but we'll see how they close out the week tomorrow.
I think if they lose that, then it just doesn't look very good
and opens the door to the next support, which is that 100 week,
which would be around the highs of pre-tariff tantrum.
I just feel like that's such a logical level for us to retest.
I mean, we basically did that during the tariff tantrum where we tested the highs of the 2021
bull market. So I could see that as like a logical place. But anyways, I was talking about like
distribution in the market and the cues in SPY. So they've been showing you for months that sellers
are just too strong and the buyers could not overwhelm the sellers.
Like there was not enough buying liquidity and buying demand to push through the sellers.
The sellers were just constantly pushing it back down.
So that sideways action went on for what, three months?
And they would have probably continued that.
That stage three would have lasted a lot longer.
And then right around the time when the Iran war starts picking up, I think that's when
fear kicks in.
And then the cat's out of the bag, as they say.
And the sellers really do begin to overwhelm the buyers because now more people enter the selling.
It's not just people who are degrossing and taking it easy, kind of this algorithmic, mechanical degrossing.
it easy, kind of this algorithmic, mechanical degrossing. So then you start to see basically
a 45 degree decline over the next couple of weeks. And really, there's just really been no buying
since. So that's, I think the issue is you had distribution before this event, this event just
increased the number of sellers in the market and it's really just tough to
get it going back to the upside so i'm happy to be sitting in cash um it's a very chill life
honestly to avoid all this garbage like so much anxiety around what's going to happen next and
you know i've had a lot less activity and I've just been focusing on, you know, eating right.
My new diet, I'm trying nutrition, going to the gym, work on stuff that's, you know, focusing on work that's outside of the markets.
I mean, you don't need to take trades.
You don't need to like more activity does not mean better results.
If anything, less is more right now.
So that's kind of what I've been doing. I only hold like two biotech companies i mentioned them the other day you know actually
one of them was up 2.6 percent today uh the other was down about one and a half percent so not bad
i mean i think i was green today right i mean because i'm mostly cash but you know you have
some decent contribution from one of your holdings and it's a good day so yeah i mean i'm mostly tuned out from markets this action is not strong um it would be great
to get a reset i think that would be very bullish um that's the thing that people you know take me
for is like oh i'm you know i think there's varying degrees of bearishness like people
just think if you're bearish or cautious that it means that you're saying that it's going to be the great financial crisis all over again.
I just don't understand that kind of perspective.
It's okay to feel that things went a little too far and we could use a reset.
That's actually very rational, sensible.
Totally, that's actually very rational, sensible.
It's how you probably make a lot more money.
It's how you'd probably make a lot more money.
Not every pullback or correction is the great financial crisis.
I do think the backdrop is very bad.
I've been posting about that for weeks.
Like, the backdrop for equities is just awful.
Like, at a minimum, you need this war to deescalate like immediately because you do not want this to remain like elevate, like escalated while we start getting more and more inflation prints.
Because if we get that first inflation print that has the oil shock in it and the war is still going, then people are just going to extrapolate that to like the heavens.
And so you really want this to wrap up. That's number one.
And that may be enough alone to stabilize the market. But just remember, we were selling off
before the Iran thing, but that could have just been, you know, healthy degrossing. So yeah,
you need the war to end immediately. need oil prices to come in you need future
cp you know inflation expectations to come back down to normal because right now they're very
not normal you need rate hike odds to go back to zero you need rate cut odds to go back to increasing
and uh we'll see i mean you know stock talk also mentioned if you get weaker labor data the issue is if you don't end the war and you get weaker labor data, that's exactly what I'm talking about as an issue.
Because then you won't have the ability to cut rates to save this market if oil prices stay elevated.
War is still going on. You know, yields are 4.5 percent.
Like, you know, that's his taco spot. We're sitting at 4.4 on the 10-year.
4.5 is where he cries for his mommy.
Waiting for him to, you know, do something.
Because this guy who, you know, cries to Jay Powell and says that,
oh, you know, get rates down now.
He's the one who's screwing himself the most at this point by escalating everything.
He did the same things last year.
I don't know.
He's not learning that if he wants rates down, we had a very, very Goldilocks scenario.
This just threw a wrench in all of it.
Just depending on how long this lasts.
This could be, again, over.
This is a 12% correction.
We test those pre-tariff highs.
This, you know, that's probably a good level.
There's been a lot of sentiment washout.
NAIM or NAAIM exposure, you know,
down from 90% down to, you know, 30 or 40%
where we bottomed in the tariff tantrum.
Lowe's like, you know, people are sitting here saying like,
oh, you know, there's this oversold data point and here's this RSI indicator.
And like, here's all the, it's like, dude, we're down like five or 6% from the highs.
And every bull is like flaming me in my comments because I'm like giving a rational take of
like, you know, this looks weak.
This, this market looks weak.
And then, so to me, sentiment is absolutely
not washed out. It could definitely get worse. People love to say the pain trade is higher.
No, it's not. The pain trade is lower. There'll be a lot of pain if it goes lower.
So, you know, I'm not calling for the end of the world. I'm just saying
these kinds of corrections can absolutely wipe people out because there's, you know, a lot of
people are probably still buying calls every day.
And it's absolutely not the environment to be pushing and being aggressive.
So I'll end it there.
Appreciate your logical as always.
What's up, Brian?
Welcome to the panel panel welcome to the space
I know he's doing a lot of stuff my guess is he's been on his way out to the
unmute button stock talk you surprised me the market moving a little higher off
of that comment from Trump I love the timing of it after the close but yeah I mean what
this has happened like six times in a row I mean it's the same thing yes that's
why I'm surprised we're still moving higher off of it I mean yeah because the
market the market wants to like the market wants to rally okay and you can
tell that by its response to these headlines.
The problem is that Trump's words can't do much here.
Again, with the tariffs, he had full and absolute control over the implication of tariffs.
That's the difference.
This time, he does not have full and absolute
control over the straighter four moves. He's pretending like he does, but he doesn't.
And the market knows that. And so, yeah, you're going to get these like half-ass bounces,
but it doesn't matter if you don't reclaim moving averages. Like that is what matters. You need to
reclaim and stay above the moving averages. It's really that simple. And like right now we're
getting what a 0.4% pump on the Qs after hours to reclaim exactly nothing. You know, like, I mean,
the closest moving average on the Qs is at 597. Right? That's the closest. And we're, this 0.4% pump brings you to 576. Like, it's meaningless.
You need like a plus 1.5 plus 2% day on the queues to get any sort of traction.
And then you need that to hold. More importantly, you know, the last big green day we got on the queues was a while ago like i mean most of
this has just been garbage action i mean it was really back on feb 25th that you got any kind of
real action in the queues you had a reclaim of the 21 ema the 50 day and the 100 day on that candle
um it looked like a good candle and then the very next day you went back below all those moving
averages and the chop continued and now we're all the way below not only the 200-day, we're below every major moving average on the daily. You're below the 9 and 21 EMAs on the weekly. You're below the 50 SMA on the weekly. The monthly is also breaking down. You're below the 9-week EMA on the monthly.
The monthly is also breaking down.
You're below the nine-week EMA on the monthly.
That doesn't stop all the way until the 21 EMA on the monthly, which is at 545.
So there is areas of support below price here, but they are lower, obviously.
And if you don't pull off a crazy reversal here, I just don't see how you get there in short order. So yeah,
I mean, the markets don't look good, to put it simply. And you're gonna have to wait until they
do. Or if you're somebody that's, like I said, a trader and you can go all cash and wait for this to pass, even better.
But the one thing that's tricky in this environment is to flip bias.
That's difficult in this environment because of the fact that it's headline driven.
And if you flip bias and say, okay, I'm going to buy a bunch of oil stocks and fertilizer stocks or whatever,
and then you get an actual taco, not like these 10-day delays,
like where the US pulls out of the war,
then you're going to get caught in a huge gap down
after already having been hit on your core positions
or your existing portfolio positions during this drawdown.
So that would just be a double whammy.
So that's what's preventing me from flipping bias here
is because this is a little
bit different, not a little bit, this is a lot different than last year's tariff situation,
I think, because Trump doesn't have control over this. One of the best statements that was
regurgitated by a lot of people at the start of this conflict was the tariffs were a one-sided
thing. Other countries did not want those tariffs to be placed on them, obviously.
And the United States had the power to remove those tariffs if trade negotiations went well.
In this situation, you have a war.
And there's two sides in a war, right?
It takes one person to start a war, two people to end it.
And so that's the difference here is that Iran needs to be down for the war to end.
And if they're not down, then it continues.
You know, even if we say 10-day pause or whatever.
I mean, he said last week, five-day pause, and then we kept striking them.
And then Iran was like, what the hell?
And so Iran started blowing up, you know, Saudi Arabian and Qatari facilities in retaliation.
So, I mean, if we can't keep our word on a ceasefire,
which doesn't seem like we can,
it doesn't seem like Iran is going to be amenable to us either.
So this is just a fucked scenario.
Like, this is, I think, the biggest miscalculation
of either of his terms.
I think he's realizing that now because of the implications in the oil markets.
I think there was probably a perception going into this war that we would just decimate Iran and that the war would be over quickly and that we'd be able to keep the straight open.
None of that has been true. We've not been able to keep the straight open.
We've not been able to end the war quickly. People forget that Iran is a huge country.
80, 90 million people, whatever the population is, there's a lot of people living in that country.
It's not Afghanistan. It's not Iraq. They have sophisticated infrastructure. They have
a sophisticated military. They have tons of ballistic missiles. They have underground
facilities where all their leadership is hiding. I mean, the Pakistani military chief said that
this week. He said, we're trying to stay in communication with the Iranians, but we can't
because they're all underground. And so it makes it difficult to take out leadership because they're
all underground. It makes it difficult to take out missile capacity because it's all underground. And so it makes it difficult to take out leadership because they're all underground. It makes it difficult to take out missile capacity because it's all underground.
It makes it difficult to control the strait because they have control of the strait. They
have control of all the islands in and around the strait, which gives them the ability to attack
vessels. It's not a Venezuela type of scenario where we just went in and took their president and there was no consequences. It's not that type of scenario. Um, it's a scenario where we have, yes, we've killed the Ayatollah, which I have no problem with that. He wasn't a good person. I'm no problem that we took out the Ayatollah. I'm not against.
that we took out the Ayatollah.
I'm not against,
this is the thing is when people hear me criticizing
this conflict, a lot of people are like,
well, you don't think we should have killed the Ayatollah?
Like, no, that's fine.
But the implications and the side effects of that
are the issue.
And our lack of preparedness
for those side effects is the issue.
Like, I mean, we spent a trillion dollars a year
on our military and we can't take control
of an 80 mile straight.
Like, that's surprising to me, to be honest.
And I think it surprised a lot of people.
I think that's why initially in the early stages
of this conflict, there was an enormous amount
of selling pressure because people believed
that we would be able to resolve the issue in the straight.
We have not been able to resolve the issue.
And the French are talking about potentially helping us,
but they're saying they don't want to do it from an American standpoint.
They want to do it from a defensive standpoint.
I don't even know what the hell that means.
I don't know how you're going to open the strait from a defensive standpoint,
but that's what the French military said yesterday.
The South Koreans said they would help us,
but there's been zero South Korean
naval activity there since that statement was made a week ago. So it's just the US Navy
and the Israeli Air Force operating in that region. And we have been unable to
clear the strait. And I think part of this idea of taking Karg Island, part of the reason that
there's 4,500 US troops being deployed to the region is probably to attempt to fix that.
And if you listen to the reporting from all of the major news networks, what they're saying is that
it's either going to be take Karg Island or take control of the Iranian shores around the strait to attempt
to reopen it. I don't know how that doesn't end up in a huge mess with a lot of Americans dead.
I don't know how that doesn't end up in that situation. And forget about what the market wants.
I don't think Americans want to see more boots on the ground in the Middle East and another forever
war in the Middle East. Because if Afghanistan took us 20 years to get a control of, and we really want to take control of Iran here,
which I don't know what the other outlet is, it's going to take a damn long time.
And that's the problem here.
And even more so than that, the oil infrastructure issue is much, much bigger than
it was in Afghanistan or Iraq. There were oil disruptions in Afghanistan and Iraq wars,
but not of this magnitude. JP Morgan, two weeks ago, called this the biggest
one-week oil shock in history. That's what JP Morgan called it. I don't know if that's accurate
or not. I haven't gone back and looked at all the oil shocks in history, but that's what they refer to it as. So yeah, I don't know. I mean, you're disrupting a quarter of the world's energy supply. You're disrupting about 30 to 40% of the world's fertilizer supply. You're disrupting the transit of metals that go through the strait as well, including aluminum and copper and so many of these other metals that transit through the straight as well, including aluminum and copper and so many of these
other metals that transit through the straight. So it's not a pretty scenario. It's not clean.
It's a mess. And I just don't know how we get out of it. I'm trying to wrap my mind around an exit
plan. And even what the media is suggesting to me doesn't make much sense. I don't know how we get out of it.
And that's what's making me sort of concerned is this might end up just being a really, really prolonged war.
And yeah, that's kind of disappointing.
It's been one or two of the things I've seen in the drone department,
especially how Iran has started to maybe use some FPv drones similar to what's happening in russia ukraine does kind of
scare me a little bit on uh how long unprepared certain things might be it also makes me think
about drone stocks and where they're at but it's a conversation for a different time we're also
not fighting a logical enemy that cares about the world economy. Like, they don't give a shit.
How much of the...
They actually want to destroy it.
Yeah, exactly.
They know that puts pressure on Trump.
They don't care that global markets are getting hit or the energy prices are going up.
They're fighting a war to the...
In their eyes, fighting a war to death.
They're counting on it.
Yeah, exactly.
They're counting on that.
Yeah.
This is a revenge thing for them. And it's a self-defense thing for them
if you're fighting a lot if you're fighting a logical enemy like if we were fighting another
first world nation who um cares about the global economy it'd probably be easier to come to a
consensus and end the war but you're're fighting a bunch of religious zealots
who feel like you killed their God on earth, their Ayatollah,
and they're willing to die to avenge him.
And they're willing to kill not only other people
to avenge him, but they're willing to destroy infrastructure.
They're willing to shoot at ships
that have nothing to do with the conflict.
They're willing to bomb the Qataris and the Saudis and the Kuwaitis, like who didn't fire
a single missile in the beginning of this conflict. You know, they didn't contribute
any offensive capabilities. The Qataris even prevented the US from using their air force bases
for this conflict. And they're still bombing them because Because to them, they're just like, fuck this.
You're going to kill us all anyway.
So we might as well go out with a bang.
That's the perspective that Iran has here.
So you're not fighting a logical enemy.
You're not fighting an enemy that has anything to lose.
And that's dangerous.
That is fucking dangerous.
And that's where we are.
We've awakened a nation of religious clerics and zealots who now are willing to fight to the death.
And that's like, it's not a good scenario.
Yeah, Trump has to give in.
He has to give up something that he does not want to give up
and he's gonna have to try to make it seem like a win but it's gonna be an l for sure
yeah and and if this thing lasts much longer the republicans are going to get destroyed in in the
the next round of elections too and he knows that and what do you think I think that's already... What do you think?
So gas prices
domestically are a big thing.
The US is the net exporter
of oil and gas. At the end of the day,
it doesn't necessarily have to affect
gas prices here.
I don't know. That probably
is not good for the global market. That probably does mess
up a lot of things. But do you think something like that
even has a chance of happening?
Sorry, something like what?
Especially the US stopping gas and oil exports and kind of using it for the domestic market.
That would be fucked.
That would be so fucked.
If you think the situation is bad now, if countries start just isolating their energy supplies, that'll be
really bad for the global economy. I mean, if this lasts another month, you're going to have
a global recession. The risk for equities, I don't think are priced in at all. Yeah. I mean,
you're going to have a global recession
if this lasts for a month longer.
So this needs to wrap up quickly
or I don't fucking know.
I mean, this is just a mess.
I said this the moment the bombs dropped
that this was a massive miscalculation.
I literally tweeted that out
and everyone in my comments was like,
you have TDS, which is such a retarded thing to say to me
because I've been a Trump supporter for a lot of the things that he's done. But
this is just a dumb, this was a dumb decision, I think. And I don't think the implications were
properly considered for the global energy markets and for inflation especially.
And you're going to trap, what you're going to do here
is you're going to choke second and third world countries
on energy supply.
And then you're going to see global inflation rise.
Then you're going to put the global central banks,
you're going to stop them in their tracks.
I mean, the ECB two months ago was talking about three or four rate cuts this year.
Now they're talking about rate hikes.
The Fed was talking about three or four rate cuts this year.
Now they're talking about pausing the cycle and potentially a hike.
Jerome said it's not quite on the table yet, but they're considering it.
And you look at the rest of the central banks of the world,
they're going to follow suit on what the ECB and the Fed does.
And so, yeah, we went from, you know, a month and a half ago,
Trump had an economy where there was targeted deregulation.
There was an AI trade that was booming.
There was rate cuts around the corner, a new Fed chair around the corner.
the chair around the corner. Trump was setting up for an excellent economy. And this one event
Trump was setting up for an excellent economy.
has disrupted that significantly. And that's pretty annoying to see, but also I think just
a massive miscalculation, massive miscalculation. And yeah, it's disappointing.
Ryan, do we have you here now?
Agent Dr. Ryan.
All right. No worries. I was was gonna say one more thing i was gonna say one more thing um
at least at least with the tariff stuff and like deglobalization i kind of understood his like
what is driving him it's like you want us to be a more self-sufficient nation i'm i'm honestly
forgetting what is what is the point of this around war?
What's the point?
Yeah, what's the point?
The point, I think the intention
was regime change,
but that hasn't worked.
Right? But I think that was
the intention.
But why is the idea of regime change just so that we have one less enemy in the East
that's like a China ally? That's what I've been thinking. Is that the only, is that it?
I mean, I don't know. I think, look, Iranians, the Iranian government has
targeted Americans for a long time, this regime, and they've killed a lot of Americans.
And so they're no friends of ours.
You know, I'm not, I'm not, I don't want people to misinterpret that I'm like defending Iran here.
I'm not a fan of Iran or anything or the Iranian government.
What I'm saying, though, is that the approach taken to this conflict was not very intelligent in my view.
And a lot of the potential side effects were assumed to be non-issues
when they are going to be issues.
Like we thought the U.S. Navy could just go in there and, pardon my language,
but big dick the straight and just, you know, go in there and say,
look, we have two aircraft carriers in the region and nobody can stop us because the United States Navy
and we're going to just forcibly take control of the strait. That has epically failed. Epically.
Like there is almost no traffic going through the Strait of Hormuz now. And we don't even know if
there's mines deployed. That hasn't even been confirmed yet.
We have nothing from the United States side that's confirmed mine removal, or even if the Iranians are just saying that to deter ships, we don't even know that. So we're like, you know,
we're like lost in a forest here as far as strategy goes. Yeah, we're bombing the hell
out of them. We're destroying their infrastructure, destroying their missile capabilities, but
that doesn't really matter if
they still have the ability to threaten ships.
And they do.
And that's the problem.
But drones seem to be
a more efficient
deterrence than mines
are, given the fact that you can pick what you're
With drones, missiles,
small-armed fire, I mean, it doesn't matter. If you're a commercial minds are given the fact that you can pick drones missiles drones missiles small arm fire i mean it
doesn't matter like if you're if you're a commercial ship with no defense capabilities
i mean you don't need much to deter you i mean yeah yeah they're using drones they're using
they're using missiles they're using small arms it doesn't matter because commercial ships are just
going to refuse to go through i mean commercial ships are not going to refuse to go through. I mean, commercial ships are not cheap, right?
You're talking about ships that are worth hundreds of millions or billions of dollars.
What company in their right mind is going to risk those assets
to push them through a war zone?
It's not like commercial ships or LNG tankers
or any of these have like 50 cal machine guns on the, on the hall.
They're,
they're defenseless.
And so if the U S Navy cannot guarantee their security,
they're not going to go,
you know,
it's really the insurance risks as well,
which kind of gets in.
These are all businesses.
Obviously they are going to go off of insurance and even just the,
the fear of it increases stuff by 10,
20% even.
Yeah. I mean, as you look going forward.
Yeah, I mean, even when this conflict is done,
there will still be increased expenses to go through here.
Because, I mean, all this just happened.
Yes, yeah.
Insurance rates are going to stay elevated for a long time for shipping.
But it's not even about insurance rates.
Like, okay, let's say you do get insurance, okay?
Let's say some company does give you some really high elevated insurance rate and you push your ship through the strait and then the ship gets
destroyed well now you've lost a ship in your fleet the ships are not cheap you know and even
if you get paid to replace it it's like what you think there's a bunch of ships sitting around
like you just go buy a ship like that's how it works you know it takes a long time to build these kind of ships um if you
look at these the like the american shipping companies um look at their fleets look at their
fleet sizes it's not like they have 500 lng tankers right i mean at the start of this conflict there
was 25 lng tankers stuck in the strait and that constituted like 40% of the total available unbooked supply.
Like that's 25 ships.
So, you know, it's not just about insurance either.
It's about the actual risk to the asset.
And, you know, if we were talking about cars, maybe it'd be easier.
Yeah, you just buy a new car.
But, like, these aren't cars.
These are massive ships.
And, yeah, it's just, it's a shit show, dude.
It was such a silly decision.
And, yeah, I don't know.
I mean, we could have just sent in, like, a special forces contingent to try to assassinate him if we really wanted him dead, as opposed to starting a war with live missile fire going back and forth over the strait.
Like, I mean, you're just not going to cross.
I mean, if I was the head of a shipping company, I'd be like, we're not fucking going through.
I don't care if we get insurance or not.
So, yeah, I mean, it's a mess. It is a big mess.
I think the economic implications of it are not as bad as the implications would have been
if we did the tariffs the way they were originally announced, right? Like,
when the tariff flash crash happened, it was an understandable flash crash, because if tariffs
had been held at 40 or 50% globally, that would have crashed the global economy. And markets knew
that. And so markets responded to that risk in April of last year. And the S&P 500 sold off by $110 or whatever it was from peak to trough.
That, I think, even though we had a V-shaped recovery,
that was a justifiable flash crash.
Because the numbers that Trump presented on April 2nd were insane.
That being said, he had the ability to change those numbers at his whim.
And he did, right? Within weeks of that, he said, well had the ability to change those numbers at his whim. And he did, right?
Within weeks of that, he said, well, South Korea gets 10%.
Our allies in Europe get 10%, so on and so forth.
And China gets 15%.
He dropped all the tariffs by a third, basically, or in some cases more.
And that made markets recover.
Markets were like, okay, cool.
You're not going to do 50% tariffs.
You're going to do 10% tariffs.
All right, makes sense.
It's not going to destroy the global economy.
Let's resume the party.
That's what markets were thinking then.
In this scenario, how do you do that?
You can't just unilaterally change the circumstances.
Then you could, now you can't.
So now you need to bilaterally change the
circumstances. In other words, you need Iran to come to the table and say, we are willing to stop
the war too. But if you look at the demands that Iran made, the five point plan that they shared
with the media, the American media, in the last couple of days, you think the United States is
going to agree to any of those things? They want to keep their nuclear enrichment capacity. They
want to keep their ballistic missile program. You think we're going to agree to that of course not so where's the middle ground
here how do you find an actual compromise here to end the conflict i don't know i don't know
you know and i and i'd be happily proven wrong like if there if we just pull out within the
next couple of weeks and go back i'm sure sure markets would love that, and we'd probably be back on our way for a recovery.
But I just don't know how you get out of this in a unilateral way.
I don't know.
And even if we do leave, let's say we leave.
Let's say the American strike groups leave the region.
Just pick up, drive, like not drive out but sail
out of the region right does israel stop does israel stop bombing iranian energy infrastructure
or do do we have the ability to get them to stop dude not even israel but do you even get
like do they allow you to still go through the straight? Like, just because you leave?
I don't even know if that's enough for them at this point.
Yeah, exactly.
I don't know if the straight will even be open either.
That's a good point.
So there's no guarantee the straight gets open.
There's no guarantee Israel stops.
And look, Israel has shown to us that they're willing to fight Iran on their own.
If need be.
They've done it in the past, even properly
prior to the Operation Midnight Hammer, where we had the B-2 bombers go in and strike them.
Markets didn't care about that, right? When we did Operation Midnight Hammer, markets didn't
give a shit. They're like, okay, you can bomb Iran. That's fine. The markets cared this time because the Strait of Hormuz was involved.
Because the US Navy was in the Strait of Hormuz.
That's the difference this time.
I would have loved for us to do part two midnight hammer.
That would have been a much better way of doing this.
But instead, we decided to do a full-on fucking war in the middle of the most important oil transit region on Earth.
Like, it's just miscalculation.
Miscalculation is a term that keeps coming to my mind.
And, yeah, I don't know how we get out of this.
Doesn't that make you think that the risk to equities
is much higher than what's being priced
and then going like thinking through it yeah i mean i think the risk to equities is higher but
it's difficult because i also think that trump doesn't want that and i think all these like
mini tacos along the way are him telling the market that he does,
he feels like this was a miscalculation.
I think he wants to de-escalate.
Yes, yes.
That's what I'm saying.
Like he is essentially admitting that he's like, oh shit, we fucked up.
Like he's indirectly admitting that.
Now he's not going to ever say that.
He's not going to come out and be like, this was a mistake. Of course he will never say that. Now, he's not going to ever say that. He's not going to come out and be
like, this was a mistake. Of course, he will never say that. But he's implying that by saying
that he wants to end the war and these continued 10-day pause, five-day pause,
we want to reopen the strait, we're negotiating with you, we're talking to Iranian officials.
That's him saying, okay, I didn't realize that there was going to be this
big of a disruption. I want this to end. That's essentially what he's implying.
And so from that perspective, if the guy who started this wants to end it, that kind of gives
you a little bit of optimism and a little bit of hope, but it has to be done quickly because
in a month from now, there will be irreparable damage done to the global economy
and there will be a high likelihood of a global recession.
And we were in the same scenario last year with the tariffs.
And I'm sure that perspective was shared with him
that if this continues,
there will be irreparable damage done to the global economy
and the tariff thing needs to be reversed.
And so he reversed the tariff thing, but be reversed and so he reversed the tariff thing
but i just don't know what the reversal button is here this time
yeah exactly like he wants to de-escalate but he can't or he doesn't know how to so i i just don't
see the off ramp listen i what i will say is this stuff just has been changing so quickly.
I don't know what the next couple of weeks will look like.
But I guess I don't disagree.
I do wonder at what point does the market just start to get dull to it?
Probably if it keeps going on, it will never get dull to it because it means that oil prices
are higher, inflation expectations are higher, rate hike odds go up, which means that equity
prices just mathematically go down.
So I don't think it gets dull to it until this is over at all.
All right. I am intrigued to see what ends up happening around elections though, because that's not
a good recipe.
I'd imagine some stuff would be attempted there.
I don't know i guess i i do see the bind but my
my guess is is world tends to do things that you wouldn't expect my readers descends quicker than
people think but we'll see we shall see stock talk Anything about... I don't know.
We just sat here painting this negative picture
and we're still holding all these stocks.
It feels like...
What are you watching?
I hold through market corrections.
I'm not like a short-term trader.
So, yes, I'm not happy about where the markets are.
I'm not positive on the markets right now,
but I'm not going to sell all my stocks.
That's not how I operate.
You know, I don't miss out on the recovery days.
I stay long through corrections.
I've done it for years.
I have the stomach for it.
Some people don't.
I do.
And so I stay long through corrections,
even though I'm not positive on the market.
I mean, I'm still up. Even after today's massive I mean, I'm still up even after today's massive drawdown.
I'm still up like 48% on the year.
So, I mean, yeah, I'm staying long through it.
I'm willing to take a drawdown even further.
But I understand people who don't operate how I do.
people who are shorter term traders who want to be in cash right now.
People who are shorter term traders who want to be in cash right now.
I don't blame those people.
I don't blame those people.
So yeah, I'm negative on the market because I think that this is,
the index structure looks terrible.
And this is going to be a hard conflict to just snap our fingers and get out of.
That being said, yes, I'm still long.
You know, and I was long in April of last year too, during the flash crash.
I was long. I was long into the lows of the flash crash.
Um, and I didn't buy anything until May, you know?
So that's just the way I operate, but that's not the right thing to do for everyone.
Some people cannot handle volatility.
Their stomach can't handle it.
If you're one of those people, you shouldn't be owning stuff in this environment.
Um, or if you're a short-term trader who's looking for, for technical setups, you shouldn't be owning stuff in this environment. Or if you're a short-term trader who's looking for technical setups, you shouldn't be owning
stuff in this environment. Simple. I'm just not one of those people. So for me, I handle my
portfolio differently, but the way I handle my portfolio has served me very well over the past
decade plus. So I'm not going to change my style just because there's fear on the table and there's economic concern on the table.
If things get worse, I will reduce exposure a little bit and raise some cash for potential dip buys.
But for right now, I'm chilling.
I'm not worried too much about performance over the next two or three weeks.
I'm more so worried about if this is going to have longer term implications for
the economy. That's sort of what I'm trying to do the risk calculus on right now. And if this ends
quickly enough, then we can avert that. But if it extends for a month or a month and a half,
then you have a high likelihood of a global recession. So that's kind of what we're sitting on right now. We're sitting
on the balance of that beam, if you will. And if yields keep going up and yields broke out
the last couple of days, that's even more of an issue, right? Because that's effective rates going higher. So yeah, there's a lot to be worried about, but yeah, I don't know.
I'm still willing to be sort of glass half full silver lining optimist because I don't
think Trump, I think Trump regrets this.
If I had to really put it simply, I think he didn't realize
that it was going to be this difficult
to keep the straight open.
I think he probably thought
the straight could be open with ease,
with the power of the US Navy,
and that hasn't been the case.
And I think that is leading him to,
leading him to be concerned.
And I think that's why we're seeing
all these sort of half tacos
on Truth Social, where he's extending deadlines for strikes
and all this stuff.
You know, I'm going to get a lot of hate for saying this comment,
but dude, did this guy not between this conflict
and the tariff stuff last year,
did he not just expose
all of US's vulnerabilities
and how potentially weak we are?
This doesn't feel like strength at all.
Last year didn't feel like strength at all.
We caved.
So this just does not feel like,
I don't know,
very bad.
Yeah, I mean, yeah, I don't think that Very bad. Yeah, I mean, yeah.
I don't think that's a great statement.
I mean, I wouldn't say we're weak.
But what I would say is that the way that we fight war
makes it difficult to resolve these situations quickly.
Like, we don't, we try to take targeted approaches to war. And the same thing applies to people who say
that we lost the war in Afghanistan or lost the war in Iraq or lost the war in Vietnam.
When I look back at those conflicts, I don't see those as losses. I see those as the United States
use of restraint being an ineffective tool when you're dealing with countries that are willing
to fight to the death. Because we do fight war differently than other people do. We fight war
assumedly tactically, and we fight war on a target basis. And so when we fight war on a target basis
and we have these specific military targets we're looking to hit, it doesn't bring a country to their knees.
They still have the ability to fight.
And so I don't think this is necessarily a sign that America is weak, but it is a sign that maybe our strategy is not as effective as we thought it was.
And that's still a problem.
I think the most concerning thing for me about this conflict is I am surprised that two of the most powerful
carrier strike groups on earth
were unable to open the strait.
That is surprising to me.
If you had asked me prior to this conflict,
will the USS Abraham Lincoln and USS Gerald R. Ford and their
accompanying strike groups be able to open the Strait of Hormuz forcibly, I would have said yes.
And now it seems like that's not the case. And so that is concerning to me. And as far as last
year with the tariffs, you're right. I think that did point out some vulnerabilities because
we quickly taco'd on the countries that provide us critical supplies, like China with critical metals, for example.
We had to taco on that pretty quickly because we realized we need their critical metals. We don't have the supply domestically, right?
And so, yeah, there are some vulnerabilities that have been pointed out about the United States. I wouldn't go so far as to say our military is weak, but our military maybe tactically is not as impressive as we thought
it was in terms of the ability to open the strait. And the fact that we still, after weeks of this,
have not been able to open the strait is a concern. And I think other countries are looking at that
like, oh, the United States can't even open up this tiny strait. Like, you know, where is the power
flex there? So, yeah, for the most part, I agree with your point.
I thought it was a look at the, whatever.
What do we got looking like for the rest of your day here?
Gentlemen, Stock Talk, you got a gym session we got coming up here?
Yeah, I'm just going to go to the gym, make dinner, chill.
I'm just waiting.
Like I said, I'm sitting on my hands in this environment.
I'm not doing much of anything.
I'm not buying stocks.
I'm not really selling many stocks.
I'm just chilling, waiting for the storm to pass, if it does.
But I
am monitoring the situation.
Like the meme. I am
monitoring the situation, though.
I am keeping
my eye out for
signs of resolution. I just don't
see them yet.
U.S. deployed.
Are you going to trust it? Are you going to trust it when you see it too?
Are you going to be able to trust it when you see it?
Well, yeah, I don't trust these little statements from Trump
because these aren't going to change anything.
What I'm looking for is like real resolution.
And so, you know, it's less about whether I'm going to trust it or not.
I need to see like concrete changes that could reopen the strait. So, you know, it's less about whether I'm going to trust it or not. I need to see, like, concrete changes that could reopen the straight.
So, yeah.
What are we cooking for dinner tonight?
No, we're not going out to steak?
No, it is going to be steak.
Nice.
Well, when you buy steak from Costco, what cut do we go for?
It depends on how healthy I'm trying to be.
If I'm trying to be a little healthier, I go for a strip.
But if I don't care, I'm going for a ribeye.
So steak is like the most meals chicken never sneaks its way in?
No, no, no. I eat a lot of chicken thighs.
Gotcha. I prefer chicken breasts. I do not enjoy the fattiness.
Yeah, I like chicken thighs.
Logical. Let's give a good dinner here. Yeah, I like chicken thighs. Logical.
Let's give a good dinner here.
We're on the diet.
We're gonna get some good macros.
Dude, yeah.
Yeah, yeah.
I had an insane breakfast.
I've just been taking protein throughout the day,
really trying to hit the protein numbers.
But I agree with StockDoc.
Chicken thigh is definitely way better than chicken breast.
Chicken breast gets so dry,
especially if we have to like reheat it.
I have chicken breast.
I'm probably eating it for dinner today.
I'd rather not.
That's why the other day I just went and got a steak.
So I agree with whatever StockDoc just said.
I just don't enjoy the fattiness of chicken thigh.
It just, I really can't.
Fattest flavor, man.
Fatt is flavor.
It just really grosses me out.
I could do some other
stuff there. Chicken thighs.
I'm not eating this. I'm not enjoying it.
It's just hard.
Wow. That's an insane thing.
I go white meat
over dark meat.
Hey, listen. It's a good person to share stuff with.
I'll take the bad parts.
Okay, that's fair.
We'll do some chicken and rice for dinner tonight, logical.
Chicken, lentils, I think.
That's probably the move.
And maybe some rice, yeah. Yeah. I've been just trying to layer in
as much as I possibly can.
I just started adding cottage cheese
into my snack rotation.
First time ever.
But dude, 17 grams of protein
for a quick snack.
I think that's…
You like it?
It tastes good?
It just sounds like it doesn't taste good.
People around me have liked it.
I don't.
I mean, I think it'll be an acquired taste. I just started, but we'll see.
The 0% yogurt…
Find stuff you like that has high protein.
I get it. The fai yogurt is good though. That's a good source of protein for sure.
Other than that, chicken, eggs, steak. That's basically it. Protein shakes.
What's the gym routine looking like you have uh like
four day a week five day a week we didn't push pull something what are we doing yeah i'm at the
i'm actually at the squat rack right now people are probably very upset with me because i'm just
chatting it up i think we're good no yeah leg day today leg day stock talk told me he always skips
leg day can you tell me more about that, stock talk?
What's the thing?
I don't know where it's stupid, but I do skip it a lot.
I was just joking, dude.
I thought you were going to fight me on it.
Sorry for exposing you.
Yeah, I know.
You did kind of expose you there.
I mean, I am hitting legs more recently, but I have skipped it a lot in the past.
Not a good thing, though.
I'm not encouraging people to do that.
What's today's workout?
Back.
Okay.
We'll end the space soon, but either of you guys baseball fans?
It's opening day, right?
Interesting. What's the team? Is there a Dallas? What's the dallas is there a dallas baseball team
what'd you say is there a dallas baseball team or is there any text with texas really
you don't follow mlb or what no i do i just i don't think there is
is what's like the closest baseball team? It's the Rangers, bro.
Dallas Rangers, okay.
Is it?
Is it actually? It's Texas Rangers, that's why.
And they're in Dallas?
Well, they're in Arlington, but I mean, so are the Cowboys.
Okay, that's fair. That's fair.
Let's see. They're playing today, probably.
I'm not a big baseball guy.
I don't really watch baseball.
I'm more of a hoops and a niple guy.
I mean, the fact that you didn't know the team is crazy.
No, yeah.
It just really wasn't coming to me when I was thinking Dallas.
There's nothing in Texas.
Rangers.
They're down 2-0 right now in the Phillies.
Logically,
Angels or
Dodgers fan?
Dodgers.
Dodgers for sure.
But I'm not a huge
baseball guy, but I went to
a couple games this season.
There's something great about going to
a baseball game.
It's just a good time.
Better than watching it.
Watching is a little boring.
Playoff baseball is a good time, though.
Yeah, I don't think we saw even one inning.
We were just hammered, so it was a good time.
We had great seats, too.
Saw nothing.
All right.
We appreciate you all for hanging out with us,
even on this last part.
Well, you know we
like to talk some more stuff oh uh joker says i'm exactly the same with chicken always breast meat
versus thighs smart man let's go what what's the surprise that you're getting a steak oh what a
surprise that you're getting a steak nappy said a lot of people asking about the saying of the chicken thighs uh nappy said agrees with you guys always
a chicken thigh people didn't like the weak comment for the record stock talk did push back on it um
yeah you're good we're just we just beaming here at the end.
I appreciate everyone.
Follow the speakers if you enjoy this conversation.
We enjoy talking some of the extra stuff here at the end as well.
I enjoy it.
Stock Talk gave me shit earlier when I was doing it in the middle of the day.
He thought there's no conversation left, which is fair.
We did just spend the last hour saying the same thing that, hey,'t know if there's a round out here we'll see yeah i mean there's i mean there's only
so much you can say about a situation like this like we don't we're not on the inside you know we
don't know what's being discussed at the higher about anything else the market just there is meta
news here today meta was down 8% and any conversation about that
was just like,
I don't know.
I mean, yeah,
the market can only really care
about one thing at a time.
The market's shown
a lot of historical precedent for that.
The market cares about
one thing at a time.
So right now,
the market cares about
this
and cares about the straight
of Hormuz, really.
Not even about the conflict.
Doesn't care about the bombs
being dropped.
Just cares about the straight.
And as long as the straight remains clogged,
you're going to see the markets continue to be under pressure, period.
And if the straight is somehow open,
then you'll probably see a massive short squeeze rally in the markets.
That's my opinion on what we're sitting with right now.
Further oil disruptions,
more pressure to stocks,
higher bond yields,
straight reopens,
bonds probably tank
and you get
a big rally in equities. That's what
I think is going to happen.
one of the two. We'll see. You know, I think, dude, happen. So one of the two.
We'll see.
You know, I think, dude,
I wonder if bonds end up being like the place to be after this
because I still think
you're going to get weaker jobs data.
You feel like you're going to get
a weaker consumer.
So as long as the inflation fear goes away,
then, yeah,
could be a good time for bonds.
I'm just never going to add.
It's all one big trade.
So I don't really ever feel the need to trade bonds because it's all one big trade.
You can just express whatever you want to express through bonds, through equities too.
So I don't really ever bother with bonds because, yeah, I just don't need to.
It's all one big trade, you know.
Yields up.
Equity's down.
Yields down.
Equity's up.
Pretty simple.
Unless you have a recession.
Yeah, unless you have a recession, but... Tough call, I know.
I'm not saying that's my base case at all.
I'm just saying. i don't want to say
it yet because there's just not enough economic weakness on the u.s side yet for me to call that
on the global side if the ecb raises rates then i think that increases the likelihood of a global
recession pretty dramatically but um let's hope that doesn't happen.
I mean... When is their next decision?
Do you know?
I can look.
I don't know.
Let's see.
I'm Googling this one.
April 29th.
April 29th. Okay. it's more than a month yeah there's 64 chance of a 25 basis point hike
oh interesting how many 64 chance of a 25 basis yeah well i mean they did i mean cancer was saying
they only they don't have the dual mandate right so it's just inflation so and they have the precedence of hiking there's a 64 chance for a 25 basis point hike
at next meeting and then there's a 55 chance of another hike in june
geez what's the what's the odds of a hiking by june just one hike um, that's not how the probabilities work on the ECB thing.
So on the ECB interest rate decision watch,
so right now they're at 2%.
It's saying April 29th, there's a 64% chance they'll be at 2.25%.
And for the June meeting, there's a 54% chance they'll be at 2.5%.
So that would be two hikes by June.
And there's a 40% chance by June that it'll just be,
it'll just stay the same.
So, yeah.
Markets are-
It's pretty dumb, they won't tell you.
Yeah, but so markets are pricing more than 50%
that we'll have two hikes from the ECB by June.
And that probably means there's an 80% chance or whatever
that there's at least one hike by June.
Yeah.
Yeah.
All right.
Well, I guess you guys should all be ready and excited
for another fun week of Stocks on Spaces next week.
I'm sure we'll have plenty to talk about
in a nice trend in market, it sounds like.
I'm kidding.
But we appreciate you all for allowing us
to become a part of your guys' daily routine.
Obviously, last week was kind of crazy
with us being live and in person at gtc
that shouldn't be happening for a good little bit here there was another event
that might be coming up in in may that was cool and we might have some cool coverage stuff out
it but that's still in the maybe still in uh seeing what happens there but i appreciate everyone for
hanging out with us you should make sure you are following the speakers check out the other stuff
that they're doing obviously stock talks got his's got his group and Logical and obviously Ryan up here
hosting the Wolf Trading Show. Shout out to that. Stocks and I have been doing Wolf Defense. We
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know when we go live we appreciate
you all for joining in Stock Talk
is there anything you want to leave the people with here on the Thursday
obviously tomorrow is Friday we still got the market
open but no stocks on spaces
next time we'll see them on Monday
yeah if you're a trader you know there's no harm We still got the market open, but no stocks on spaces. Next time, we'll see them on Monday.
If you're a trader, there's no harm in being in cash and just waiting this out.
If you're a positional investor and longer-term guy like me, sit on your hands.
Just wait it out.
There is no clear direction right now.
We are still in a long-term uptrend in the markets, but we are in a short-term downtrend here. And that makes it even more difficult
to take positional bias because long-term uptrends do have corrections within them
and they tend to be bought up. And so we're still in that scenario.
And yeah, you just have to be ready for anything. You cannot put on a crystal ball hat
in this kind of environment
and try to predict what's going to happen.
That's a dangerous game to play.
You're in a headline-driven market.
Just wait.
Monitor the situation.
I keep bringing that meme back up,
but monitor the situation
and understand the risks on both sides, right?
There is a risk that Trump just walks away from this conflict.
That's a risk to people who are betting on the downside.
And the risk to the downside is the idea that this conflict prolongs for months
and continues to disrupt the energy markets, raise inflation globally,
cause rate hikes, and really just fuck up the global economy.
So that's the bear case. So I think both of those cases are still valid for now.
The longer the conflict draws on, the more the latter probability increases. So
yeah, we're in a sticky situation right now. You just have to count on us
potentially getting out of it,
hopefully sooner than later.
So, yep, just keep your wits about you.
Keep your risk managed.
Again, if you're a trader,
there's no harm in being in high quantities of cash.
If you're an investor,
stick to your guns,
stick to the stocks that you like,
especially if they're holding up in this environment,
which not a lot of stuff is. And yeah, that's pretty much it.
That's pretty much all I can say.
Appreciate you all. Father speakers, enjoy the rest of your day, gentlemen.
Thank you for everyone for hanging out with us today.
Thank you for everyone for hanging out with us today.
You know what?
Stock Talk, I'm going to post one of the clips from your interview that you did at GTC.
Let me get that up now.
Yeah, I was going to post them, but I just didn't like the setup that we had.
I was kind of pissed they didn't give us the booth, but whatever.
Okay, and I did say it in my feedback.
If one of the clips do well, you can post it. I did say it in my feedback. If one of the clips
do well you can post it. I get it.
I appreciate you all. Peace.
