NFTs Are Heating Up - Lucky Lead

Recorded: Jan. 22, 2024 Duration: 1:05:50

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Thanks for joining us here this morning.
We're going to start the show here in just a few minutes.
We will give it a few for folks to filter in, get our speakers up on stage while we wait.
We're going to start the show here in just a few minutes.
We're going to start the show here in just a few minutes.
We're going to start the show here in just a few minutes.
Good morning and welcome to the lucky lead.
Today is Monday, January 22nd.
It is another cold winter morning here in Chicago, but we are on an upswing.
We're going to be back in the 30s here this week.
That is a 40 to 50 degree temperature swing from last week.
So we're feeling warm actually.
Punk holders are feeling pretty warm too.
After a huge weekend, those pudgy penguins are as well as our several PFP owners over on ETH after a big market rally.
We're going to break it all down on today's show.
I see some friendly faces out there.
Fern, Huda, Metta, Marco, thank you for joining us.
As a reminder for any new listeners out there, we do run this show every weekday Monday to Friday at 10 a.m. Eastern
covering all the major news in crypto and entities.
I'm your host, Tyler D., and I'm joined today by some amazing co-hosts.
We've got Emily Love's crypto, a Web3 security expert and co-founder of Fullproof Labs.
Ghost, content star over at LuckyTrader, Quiet Whale, deep in the AI streets, still hanging out with us.
And then Logan Hitchcock, editor-in-chief over at LuckyTrader, he's repping the LuckyTrader account.
He's been covering the space in-depth for years.
Logan, GM, how are you doing?
Good morning, Tyler.
I'm doing well.
It's just very, very cold here in Central PA.
But the market, of course, heating things up, warming me up just a little bit for today.
Hopefully you're getting a little bit of this heat wave that we're starting to see here in Chicago and thaw out a little bit.
Well, folks, the NFT market certainly thawing out across blockchains, actually.
And we're going to talk about today on the docket.
We're going to start with Ethan and T's storming back, led by Punks and Penguins, a 1000X on Solana.
A surprise Ordinal's airdrop has pumped some life into Bitcoin.
Quantum Cat's details, the crypto undead's back from the dead, plus all the news.
Before we dive in, though, Ghost, any housekeeping for today?
Oops, sorry about that.
As always, if you enjoyed this show, Tyler does a great rundown of the NFT space every morning in the morning minute newsletter.
We've got that pinned to the top of the spaces.
Make sure you give that a subscribe if you haven't already.
All right, Ghost, thank you for that.
And, folks, if you're listening, we've been keeping the show more casual as of late.
So if you've got a hot take on any of the topics we're going to cover on today's show,
feel free to shoot that hand up request to join the conversation.
We'd love to have you.
All right, well, I'm going to start with our NFT weekend recap from this morning's morning minute,
and it starts in Punks.
Punks are the alpha.
At least that seems to be the broad sentiment in Ethereum NFT circles,
where Punks are broadly considered the best store of value NFT.
And many from that group also believe that a Punks run will spark a broader NFT market rally.
Well, Punks, if they're not running, they're at least walking pretty damn fast right now
after a flurry of activity this weekend,
and we will see if the rest of the market will be pulled along with them.
So what happened?
We saw Punks catching major bids this weekend.
Just a few bullet points here.
So a $2.08 million sweep on mid-tiers,
which included two hoodie Punks, two top hats, and two cowboys.
We saw a $2.65 million sweep of 18 floor Punks.
We saw two mega bids, a $1,700 each bid on an Alien and then a $1,400 each bid on an Ape.
And then the floor up a solid, I want to say 15% on the week at $64.6 each.
That's over $150,000.
That mid-tier sweeper also put in some major bids on several other mid-tiers and nice-looking Punks.
And it seems like fireworks, i.e. a major sale, could happen any day now.
And if it does, it could be the catalyst to drive Punks to the next level.
In other news, we saw Pudgy Penguins reach a new all-time high this weekend.
It feels like it's Punks and Penguins right now leading the way in PFPs.
Those Pudgies, they caught a major rally.
They almost reached $20.
They pulled back.
They closed the week over $18.
That's still up a whopping 42% on the week, a clear level above most of the mid-tier PFPs at this point.
The move, it also came with no real news.
But we did see Luca drop a teaser over the weekend showing two Penguins in the lab.
So now the question is, what are they cooking?
I want to talk about that with our panel.
A few other stories.
So we have a Solano 1000X.
And again, only possible on Solano.
So that is a tagline getting some adoption during this recent Solano pump.
And this weekend's 1000X on an NFT project likely proved that tagline true.
So Ping Wings minted on Friday for 25 cents each.
On Saturday morning, they reached a three-sole floor.
That's $270.
That was over a 1000X for anyone who minted and sold up there in less than a day.
And again, I mean, it's pretty much only possible on Solano.
And why do I say that?
Even on a slow weekend, Ethereum gas fees to buy an NFT on Blur are still roughly $5 per transaction.
So if you think about had Ping Wings minted on ETH, you're still looking at $525,
dropping that multiple to about a 50X versus a 1000X.
So still sizable, but noticeably less.
And I think this is just another signal of why meme coins and low-cost NFTs are thriving on Solano
and likely continue to do so over on that blockchain.
On another blockchain and over on Bitcoin, we have seen volume declines,
but the quantum cats do not care about that.
So Bitcoin NFT is hot to start the year.
We saw a series of high profile and high price tag mints come these last few weeks.
Liquidity seems to be taking a hit.
And now we've got the quantum cats coming next week at a 0.1 Bitcoin mint price for 3000 NFTs.
So that's going to be a 300 Bitcoin raise.
And it seems like liquidity could be getting even tighter.
Taking a look at some of the leaders.
Node monkeys were down at 0.16 yesterday.
They were back up this morning.
Bitcoin frogs, similar story.
They were down at 0.135.
Both of those had dropped 25%.
The Bitcoin pup is at 0.022.
I think those are also up a little bit higher.
Pizza Ninjas at 0.7, Shadows at 0.6, both down.
Fairly considerably from their local highs.
But we did see a rally again last night after the surprise RSIC airdrop,
which we'll talk about later in the show as well.
So now we'll see if that airdrop and this quantum cat cement is either going to be a liquidity injection
or extraction event.
Hopefully we'll find out soon.
Well, I'm going to go ahead and pause there.
That's a quick rundown of the major stories.
There's a lot of things we can get into.
But Logan, maybe we'll start highest level, 40,000 feet.
Does it feel like we're back?
How are you feeling about NFTs overall?
I'm not ready to say we're back yet, but it does, of course, feel like trending upwards, right?
Led by two of the strongest, if not the very strongest projects in the space.
One with CryptoPunks and the provenance and all that comes with that.
And then two, the more community-based project in Pudgy Penguins, those are certainly leading things.
I think if you sort of go back, rewind to 2021 and what was happening with projects, everything going up,
it was, of course, buoyed by the biggest projects, the most successful projects,
going up leaps and bounds and continued winning.
And so as I try to add a trend in here to pay attention to moving forward, it is very much that.
Are the winning projects winning even more?
And once that starts to happen and people start to see those extreme gains,
it seems to spread itself around a bit to the rest of the market.
So I think, yeah, trending up, heating up, even just a tiny bit, maybe some kindling on the fire for right now.
Yeah, looking to the winners, I think, always makes sense.
And I think what's interesting, we keep seeing these pumps kind of spread across projects.
I think Cool Cats is a great example yesterday, right?
I think they're up over 100% after Pablo Poncasso swept a bunch of these.
I think the chorus is, you know, it's going to be the new projects that pump in a new cycle.
And I think there's likely some truth to that.
But I think where that logic goes a step further to say the old projects aren't going to rebound.
Well, they are.
And if you throw a dart, there's several projects over on Ethereum that are up 30 to 50% on the week.
So there's trades to be made in this market.
Emily, your hand popped up. I'm curious for your thoughts here.
Yeah, I feel like we've been saying, are we back for a long time at this point?
Like, I think definitively, I would say we are back at least temporarily.
I don't know. I do agree, though. It's going to be the new projects.
I think there's a couple carryovers that maybe like regain some of their stature.
But I think that, you know, part of the culture of crypto is the opportunity to make new money
and that does not really equate to existing projects.
Those people already had their chance.
So I think it is going to come mostly from new projects.
Very fair. And perhaps I need to change my lingo a little bit to are we more back
or else just come up with a new phrase entirely versus just kind of repeating the standard tagline
that most of the talking heads use at this point in January 2024.
Logie, additional thoughts?
I was just going to chime in on the new projects versus old.
I agree with what Emily shared there.
I do think, you know, new projects are going to be those that are going to achieve the, you know,
hundred X's or thousand X's like you saw with penguins and beyond.
That's just kind of the nature of the game and likely based on the low entry points
that come with those, right, make it more feasible.
But I do think the old projects, despite them not being very, very old,
those will be the signal, you know, for this run and the excitement
that sparks new people wanting to participate in those new projects, right?
If the best of the last class, you know, don't perform, you know,
they could just dwindles any potential excitement for new projects as well.
I think that's fair. So let's take that a step further.
So like I'm looking at, like, let's say there's a mid, like a low mid tier index
of cool cats, doodles, campite pandas, moonbirds, clonax.
Let's just call it there for this thought exercise.
I mean, if punks rally to 80 or a hundred ETH here at some point in 2024,
that would be a huge run, but probably inside the realm of possibilities.
I mean, is that index, where do you set the over under?
Do you set it up plus 100% plus 200%?
Would you set it at where it is now?
Do you think they would dip?
Like, how do you think those products would perform in that scenario?
Yeah, I do think those, I personally believe those,
that basket would rise alongside a punks rise,
but I don't think it's going to rise in multiples that outshine
any new and quality new projects, if you can follow me there.
So the multiple that's attached to owning a basket of moonbirds,
clonax, you know, whatever, you know, that might be a, let's say 100%,
10%, 100%, whatever, you know, all relative gain versus the participation
at the mint level for new quality projects.
I think it's just going to be, you know, greater, you know,
two or three times probably greater in order of magnitude on the return,
literally just on the multiple.
Of course, in terms of the actual USD value, et cetera, you know,
things get out of whack once you get up higher.
But that's the way that I'm thinking about it, you know, moving forward.
Yeah, I think that makes sense.
From an ROI perspective, though, I think one thing that's jumping out to me,
and we'll talk about quantum cats here in a bit,
is these new projects aren't messing around with low mint entries.
So your chances at actually getting 100X or 1000X to me,
seem much more difficult this cycle based on some of this primary pricing
we've seen than it was in 2021.
But we can dive into that a little bit later.
Go, someone tag you into the conversation.
You know, you are a fairly active trader,
but I don't know if you've really been, you know,
super deep into making NFT trades here so far in January 2021.
I'm curious, how are you feeling about the market across blockchains right now?
Anything that jumps out to you?
I mean, I think it's very, very hot.
And I think, like you said, I think we've been back for a bit,
but it's nice to see a lot of like relative strength in all these projects,
both new and old.
And so I think there's been plenty of opportunities to both make money
and get into interesting new projects.
And I think it's really interesting to see ones like quantum cats
that are kind of taking the spotlight.
And some of these projects are ones that we've talked about
where they mint at a super low cost and develop a community.
And then there's other ones that are taking the higher mint price
and we'll see how those play out.
I'm very interested to see the quantum cats personally.
I think Udi and that team have a huge microphone
and megaphone on the ecosystem in general.
So people really want a piece of that and the auction results.
I don't know if you mentioned this previously.
I don't know what it's at now, but it was at like 150,000 or something
if I saw yesterday.
So curious to see how that impacts people's perception
of what the value of these are going to be.
Yeah, the Genesis cat holding at 140,000 here,
it looks like the lot is going to close at 204 p.m. Eastern.
So we'll see if we get a bidding war in the last hour or so.
I think, yeah, the consensus views is that these quantum cats
are going to trade anywhere from a quarter Bitcoin to half a Bitcoin
in the early trading on secondary, which I think makes sense.
And I wouldn't fade that just a little bit unfortunate
that that's going to be a one and a half X gain
versus a larger potential gain there.
But they've done the work to generate the demand for that.
So I guess it's hard to fault them.
I guess what has stood out to me,
maybe we can just quickly pivot over to Bitcoin
as I've been looking at the leaders.
I haven't found a whole lot of great analytics
around ordinals trading, a lot of mix with like BRC 20s,
which monies the data a little bit.
But if you look at the top 12 trending projects over the past week,
they didn't combine to do 300 Bitcoin volume.
And now we've got the quantum cats coming in
and they're going to take 300 Bitcoin in this raise.
And I've got some concerns on what that's going to mean
for these existing projects.
Logie, maybe I'll throw it to you.
I'm curious for anyone's thoughts here, though.
Do you think the leaders are trading higher,
current leaders are trading higher or lower
in a week and a half after the quantum cats met?
I think probably lower.
We talked about it on the show for a few weeks here now.
The expectation with just not many projects out there
and some quality projects coming in like the last few weeks
with Pizza Ninja as a now, of course, quantum cats
is probably two or three times or more the hype than even that project was.
I just think it becomes the attention of the ordinals economy
for the near future.
And what that does is you notice there's not much volume there
as is right now.
That probably sucks up all of or most of the volume
that is actively trading.
And then just once that attention shifts elsewhere,
you see listings go up in the other collections.
You see trading go down in the other collections
and that typically leads to price decline.
So that's my expectation moving forward for the next few weeks there.
That is the one little thing that I'm trying to think about
just a little bit, Tyler, is the fact that the price
that the price tag attached to whatever this is
may price out a handful of folks
or I don't know how much in terms of liquidity.
And then I wonder too if that if people were kind of sitting on the sidelines
waiting to potentially participate, feel spurned
or maybe not spurned, but just kind of missed out
and then do look to the next best thing,
which would put into play something like node monkeys
or Bitcoin puppets, right?
If people are still looking to get access.
And I think this, we'll talk about it later, I guess,
but the RSIC airdrop,
if people are thinking that these types of collections
make them eligible for stuff like that, right?
You may be wishing to have your Bitcoin in a puppet
versus just in a wallet,
whereas you may not have thought that last week, for example.
Yeah, I mean, a few different factors there.
I think certainly that was a nice win for the Bitcoin puppets.
And I actually, I don't have all the details on exactly who received
this RSIC airdrop.
I do believe it's come out that the puppets owners got these
and I don't know if they got one or two.
I was trying to check my wallets this morning
and I was struggling to even see how many I had.
So I need to spend some time with this,
but I do believe I got at least one or two.
I think Ghost, you got a couple of these as well.
So that's been a nice little stimulus.
So I can see that perhaps driving a little bit of volume
into the market here.
But Ghost, with respect to quantum cats,
A, are you planning to try to trade that project?
Part B, would you consider selling your node monkey
for a cat?
What's on your mind?
Man, that's a tough decision.
I like my node monkey,
and I think that they've held up pretty strong
throughout this.
So I'm still kind of bullish on the node monkeys
and I don't have a ton of attachment to the quantum cats
and that whole ecosystem.
So I think I would probably stick with holding my node monkey
over the quantum cats,
but it's an interesting trade to consider.
But it's also tough to just move that much Bitcoin.
I liked that I bought my node monkey sub 0.1 Bitcoin
and now I'm still holding it obviously,
but it's hard for me to still mentally
spend over 0.1 Bitcoin on something.
Like, it's just the idea.
I know it's a psychological thing
and we've spent that much ETH equivalent on other things,
but for some reason,
like getting rid of that much Bitcoin
is still a little bit scary to me.
So obviously, a psychological adjustment
that I'm sure will go down eventually,
but I'm still struggling with that.
Yeah, it feels real.
I think that's also going to be a question of
how liquid will the quantum cats floor be
after the first few days?
And it's going to be a craze for sure.
When we saw crazy volume on node monkeys,
I'm expecting the same.
And again, it wouldn't surprise me
if these got to 0.3.
I think above 0.5 seems a little high
that kind of feels like a potential cap there.
Just because, you know,
what does secondary action look like at that level?
Like, are we really going to see a liquid
half a Bitcoin floor on these where, you know,
30 to 50 to 100 are traded on a daily basis?
I don't know.
I don't quite see it yet.
It just doesn't feel to me like there's that much liquidity
in this Bitcoin NFT ecosystem,
but perhaps it's just folks on the sidelines and waiting.
And if Udi brings those folks to this met,
then certainly that, you know,
you can throw my expectations out the window.
Emily, thoughts on your side?
Yeah, it sounds like it sounds like we're almost approaching
the point on ordinals where it's like, oh, yeah,
if you, you know, have a good enough name
and made an ordinals collection,
it's going to go up, right?
Like, it sounds like we're running back early 2021
ETH NFTs.
And like, I'm just not sure how quickly the market
is going to realize that that does not make an enormous
amount of sense, especially because like the comps to that,
you know, things hung out in the NFT ecosystem
as it was developing for a really long time
without enormous price action.
So like, you know, is there going to be a hard realization
that, you know, doing a ton of trading on these things
before it has like the standard types of early applications
is going to cause people to lose interest
or is it going to just, you know, hang out there
and skyrocket because, you know, people already, you know,
are counting on the potential of the early projects
that they see comparable in ETH.
I don't know, right?
Like, but at this point it seems like if you have a good enough name
and you made a big project, it's guaranteed to go up.
And I think that people are going to start
to get skeptical of that eventually.
Yeah, I think a part of that is one,
there's not a whole lot of options right now.
To really, if you want to buy NFTs on ordinals
to really dive in, there's probably less than a dozen
for you to really seriously consider.
And then folks are more confident betting on teams
at this point.
And it does seem like at least the Quantum Cast Taproot team
has been putting the effort in here across a long period of time.
So it feels like one of the safer bets.
So I certainly understand that logic now,
what this spring looks like.
If folks remember the 2021 NFT ecosystem on ETH,
it was very quiet and liquidity dried up substantially
for several months there before it really picked back up
in the summer.
And it feels like we could see a similar setup on ordinals,
though it certainly is a much different market at this point.
And whatever happens, I feel like it's much more interconnected.
So whatever happens on ETH, on Solana,
likely is going to flow over to Bitcoin in one way or another.
So that is the X Factor here.
But Logan, additional thoughts on your side?
I was just going to say, I mean, I think we're very much
in that point of the market, as Emily pointed out,
that if you have a name, you can drop it.
But I just don't think that's ever going to leave
any of these markets.
That's still prevalent on ETH, at least in my opinion.
If you're notable enough, you have enough followers,
enough name power, enough of the right people supporting you,
your project is probably going to go up,
at least from mint price, where early supporters
or allow list grinders are going to gain access to it.
I just don't think that's going to go away.
So I definitely think we're in that part of the cycle.
The hard part gets, if you're on the sidelines,
you didn't grind enough for the allow list
or weren't fortunate enough to be selected,
do you make a play on secondary?
We kind of saw this play out with undeads
in the last week as well.
Yeah, do you think quantum cats,
will the timeline be divided for those
who are on the white list and able to net
versus those who are not like undeads,
very divisively, was?
I don't think so because,
and I haven't dug in super deeply to quest for,
I think the deadline's tomorrow,
but a lot of the people that are earning,
they're literally earning these through creative,
I don't know if it's video production
or it has to be a video or doesn't have to be a video
or whatever, but people actually have to go out of their way
to do something, to do this.
You can't necessarily bot farm this.
I think that's, to me anyway,
that makes me feel better about,
if I miss out, it's my own fault for,
one, not participating, or two,
just didn't have the chops to build what was required.
And that does make me feel a little bit better
about those who are having the opportunity
to mint versus undeads, which felt,
or could have felt,
very much like handing it to those
who already had things, punk owners, et cetera,
which I don't personally have a problem with either,
but as someone from the sidelines,
I definitely could see the difference there.
That's very fair.
I mean, it's very open,
Quantumcast is open to anyone who wanted to put the time in.
You had a shot to qualify for the whitelist.
You still may at this point.
A friend, Perilous,
he actually created a silent film for his application.
So he put some serious work into this.
So it's hard to throw any shade at him
for getting a whitelist spot after all of that.
And I think that it's a story that would apply
to basically everyone who gets it versus undeads,
which did feel like, hey, is it going to dollars buddies?
Certainly there was the presale for punk holders
who got five slots each,
which was a pretty substantial bag.
And I wonder if the fund would have been a little bit less
had they only gotten like one or two versus that five.
But we'll talk about that in a bit.
I want to come back to punks briefly before we get
to our news segment, Logan.
I'm curious if you've been following this,
like the punks market specifically closely,
what might be jumping out to you?
Certainly we've seen these kind of trade
in the 40 to 60th floor range.
Throughout most of the bear,
there was the one run up to around 70
when they first started trading on Blur
that immediately reversed.
Does this run feel different?
Do you feel like it's just trading in range?
Kind of what are you thinking here near term for punks?
I don't think this feels super different
in the sense that I'm expecting any dramatic
floor price shift either up or down in the near term.
I don't necessarily think it's inorganic
or anything like that either.
To me, what this feels like, Tyler,
is people looking to literally consolidate
into punks to add to punks for long-term holdings.
I'm not paying super close attention
to the specific purchases here and there.
Of course, the big sweeps that come across the timeline.
As a former punk owner, it actually kind of pains me.
I've done a good job of keeping my eye
away from that floor price to not need
to cope too hard on the sidelines.
To me, this feels like, as I noted
in the beginning, the buildings of a really strong market,
I think it's going to happen through these premier projects.
That's what this feels like to me,
this under-bubbling of if something big is coming,
it's going to come first and foremost
and perhaps most loudly to a project like punks
or a project like penguins.
The smart money or the most money is going to flow
into those to prepare for those things.
That's what it feels like to me.
Maybe it does feel different when compared
to the most recent run-ups like with the Blur thing,
for example, but I don't foresee yet
some super volatile spike from whatever floor price is
now to 100% gain over the weekend.
It doesn't feel like that to me yet.
I wouldn't go that far, but I will say,
I think what stands out to me,
it feels a little bit different about this rally.
He's just looking at the floor right now.
It's a very aesthetic floor.
There are several punks in the top three rows of listings,
which would be nice pickups.
I think a lot of times what happens is the worst traits
fall to the floor, the floor becomes not as thick
and you really just need a sweep to get those out
of the supplies.
It's not like that right now.
We've got pipes sitting on the floor, clown hair.
We've got VR goggles, gold chains.
There are some nice ones along with some fairly clean punks
Where I'm going with this is I could see those getting
sniped, picked up here one by one by folks who actually
want to hold them for a bit.
If you combine that with any more sweeps like we saw
over this weekend from what feels like either whales
or institutions or folks who actually do plan to hold
for some time, it wouldn't surprise me if these things
are sitting at 75.
75 in the floor here in a couple weeks wouldn't surprise
me at all.
Then once we're up there, who knows.
That's when FOMO can really kick in.
It's going to be fun to watch.
The market's always more exciting when punks are
catching the bids and seeing a rally.
I think we all have to root this on.
Personally, as someone who wants to see that pudgy
penguin floor move up to the next level,
I don't really think it's realistic to see pudgies
at 30 to 40 without punks leveling up.
So I think if you want to see some of these other
projects go to that next level, I think you also
have to be rooting for the punks to move up as well.
So that's going to be another aspect of this
narrative to watch.
Well, we're 30 minutes in.
I want to switch gears and talk some Solana action
here briefly.
Before we do that, let's read the news.
Today's top headlines powered by LuckyTrader.
Trading volume on Sunday came in at $25.5 million.
After a weekend around the $30 million per day,
Mark, leaders did see some major green.
We saw CoolCats lead top movers on each jumping
55% to a 1.05% floor.
RhettGuy, Campi, Panas, and Doodles each saw 20%
to 30% gains as well.
Those Nakamigos crypto trading cards and their
bubble head toys were one of the biggest winners,
some of the biggest winners over the weekend.
They're at 0.77, 8th, and 0.11 respectively.
We saw NodeMonkey's lead action on Bitcoin with
13 Bitcoin in volume on the day, that floor up to
At surprise, Ordinal's airdrop, RSIC met a protocol,
let it land in Ordinal's traders' wallets this morning,
opened up at 0.013, it ran to 0.022.
I think I saw it peak, has now pulled back again.
The project seemingly tied to the Rhone's protocol.
Holders will be able to mine runes via a few steps.
Solana entities were mixed again with crypto undead
spiking 30% to 13.6.
Sujiko warriors up nearly 10% to 7.4
and Campi, Panas on Solana up 20% to 49.
Meanwhile, the leaders, Tensorians fell 5% to 75,
Sol and Madlads fell 4% to 166.
Dwight Howard introduced an NFT collection called Ballers
which started minting on Avax for a one Avax mint price.
That's about $33, promising utility like experiences,
moments, content, twists, and mysteries.
Sagafone owners were airdropped cyber frog NFTs
over the weekend.
I don't believe those are yet open for trading.
And then Killa Bears and Killa Cups
will soon be traveling to Solana
in the latest PFP project to bridge blockchains.
Another Web3 and crypto news.
Crypto majors are red this morning ahead of trading.
Bitcoin was down 2%, 40,850.
ETH down 4%, 2380.
Sol was down 5% at 88.
Leading meme coins also took a hit
along with the majors here with
down to 280 million.
Bonk down to 690.
And then Bybit.
Some big news out of Bybit on Friday.
They are launching a keyless wallet
providing a new solution
as it celebrates 1 million Web3 wallet users.
All right. Well, that was the headlines.
Logan, your hand already popped up.
What do you want to react to here?
I just want to make sure we don't jump
beyond the Dwight Howard thing.
Only because, you know,
I just agreed with Emily that
you could put a strong name on something
and it would go up.
Except in this case where it's so, so bad
and, you know, so shoddily put together.
I think many folks were making fun
of the clear fiverr art
before this even dropped.
And then, surprisingly,
I was actually paying attention to this, Tyler,
because I thought maybe this could be ironically
or, you know, memetically like what we saw
with Kevin sort of memed into existing,
memed it out.
So I've been monitoring it.
The public mint price was one Avax.
It's around, what, $33 or something.
When I, you know, refresh the page,
I've been looking at it for the last day or so still,
still not even close to minted out.
They have dropped supply,
but in dropping supply,
they increased the mint price,
which I don't think I've ever seen before,
an increase in mint price
despite a lack of demand,
which is just a wild strategy.
Still only about 30% minted thus far.
Still keeping my eye on it, though,
in case something weird happens here.
I have so many thoughts.
One, just what a wild strategy.
These aren't selling at this price point.
Let's double it.
Let's charge more
and see if that brings all the boys to the yard.
In fact, it has not.
I see the memetic play on this.
So I'm with you there.
I'm doubling the price.
Certainly it's a terrible decision.
But in a world where these are close to minting out,
I do think it could be a decent flip.
Being on Avax is a problem.
I know there's an NFT ecosystem on Avax,
but I don't know who is in that ecosystem.
They're not really on my timeline.
I think if this was on Solana,
it would have done much better.
In fact, I think it probably would have minted out already.
It just goes to show whoever is advising these folks,
it's giving them bad advice.
I always wonder who these people are.
But we will certainly see.
I actually don't hate the art.
I thought the art was funny.
I have to agree, Tyler.
As an NBA lover, I thought that these were hilarious.
I know it's fiber art,
and I think that the memetic potential is there
because it's just too funny.
Has the NFT market evolved that people aren't minting this up?
I think in the bull run of last cycle,
I think these probably would have been minted out
just because Dwight Howard was attached with it.
But it seems like people have kind of wisened up to the game plan
that we see from a lot of the celebrities coming in.
I think it's only not minted out because it's on Avax.
I think it would have 100% minted out on Solana.
On ETH, $33, so that's like .015 or something.
Yeah, I think it probably mints out on ETH too.
At least that's my take.
So in my defense, I didn't say anything with a good name.
I said anything on Bitcoin with a good name,
which at this point equates to strong developer skills.
But yeah, the Dwight Howard one,
I thought they were funny too.
I wouldn't be surprised if we learn later
that Avax was actually going to give them a boost
or pay them if they minted the collection out.
That is very aligned with how the Avax Foundation
navigates the space,
and they're still trying to get better traction.
They have their fumble kind of a star's arena.
That alone wouldn't surprise me.
I was going to say though, like a keyless wallet.
Let's come back to that.
I do want to talk about that,
but we got to keep turning on Dwight here
because I think I'm going to have to huddle with Ghost
after the show.
We're going to have to mint a few of these things.
But Logan, additional thoughts on Dwight here?
Yeah, I was actually going to go the way Emily was going there
with the Avax support.
We of course know that the foundation came out
with plans for the meme coin support,
maybe not in those exact words,
but that's coming at some point.
I believe one of the founders,
or at least one of those on the Avalanche Labs teams,
early responded to this tweet,
or one of Dwight's tweets as well.
So I think they're keenly aware of this in the background.
And then on the art, I believe Dwight tweeted,
I'm trying to find it, but I'm struggling to do so.
I believe he tweeted something about the art being upgraded as well.
So maybe what you're seeing on the OpenSea Mint page,
if you take a look at it now,
kind of the key image there, the featured one,
does appear to be different and better
than that initial fiber art that was shared
and kind of made fun of on the timeline.
And then plus, of course, as Dwight alluded to,
and you shared here, Tyler,
mysteries, content, exclusive things.
Who else knows what might come from that?
Yeah, if there's any ex-MBA starter
that can fulfill mysteries,
I think Dwight Howard is at the top of that list.
I think he was also tweeting about Cockenew.
I think he was talking about how he picked up a bag
in one of his promotion tweets.
So clearly he got somewhat tipped off
to what's going on in Avax.
If the Avax Foundation comes into this,
of course, that's another driver,
just another reason why Ghost and I
are going to have to go mint this after the show.
But there's a few other topics I want to get into,
but Emily, you jumped in on Keyless.
I actually had, I skimmed our article over at LuckyTrader.
Maybe Logan knows more about this.
I don't really know that I understand
what a Keyless wallet means.
So you don't have a seed phrase.
I guess what I don't understand is what you do have
and how you keep your wallet secure.
So I guess what jumped out to you, Emily?
We've talked about this a little bit at my company as well
and how losing your seed phrase is one of the many risks
of participating.
Kind of like the strategy that we would take
is something more along the lines of
your wallet can only be accessed from your specific browser,
but that involves a lot of additional technology,
including markers that you would put on your browser.
It involves a lot of trust in the company providing it,
which I think is why they waited so long to deploy it.
It's probably an idea that they've been knocking around
for a while too.
I do believe it's the type of thing that is just
a matter of time before someone exploits it, though.
I don't know.
Wait and see.
I would not be a first adopter in a meaningful way.
I'm sure there's going to be somebody.
I would open one,
but I don't know if I would put anything in it.
Yeah, it seems like they're trying to kind of go after
so that this design is in response to the dual demands
of security and user friendliness.
I certainly understand going after user friendliness.
I just don't understand fully what the compromise here is.
Logie, maybe you know more.
Yeah, I'll try, although I'm, of course,
not in any way a technical specialist,
but from the wallet highlights that were shared
in the press release.
So right now, one, it's undergoing a heavy CERTIC audit.
So that's first before this rolls out to customers.
Oh, great.
That means it'll be super easy to break.
No comment.
It's triple layer security.
So you'll have a wallet password,
device authentication, and one other layer
that I'm not seeing here listed as the third.
TEE environment signatures.
So client and server operate with trusted execution environments
and then a robust recovery system as well.
There may be some other words in here.
I pasted it along to Emily in a chat,
so she can take a look and maybe inform us a bit more tomorrow.
It says it uses MPC technology.
We'll just need somebody who can speak for it
like Emily or someone else,
because I'm not the guy, unfortunately.
I'm just regurgitating what's on the press release.
I mean, it's basically, you know,
exactly what we were thinking about,
exactly what I said,
where it's combining traditional technologies
that we're used to as a matter of securing.
But, you know, ultimately,
like there is some element of centralization
that is a gigantic addressable area full of seed phrases.
Like that is something that they are going to be dealing with, right?
And like they'll probably encrypt it and then you need, you know,
I need a key and my computer needs a key
and I have a password and that unlocks another part of the key.
But, you know, if someone smart enough can isolate that information
and figure out how to put it together, then it can be unlocked.
And like that's kind of always the nature of this stuff
and of self-custody or a custody wallet.
So, you know, I don't know.
I guess it just depends on, you know,
how much you trust the people that are serving this up
and how much you're willing to risk in that regard
because this is young technology.
And it's so good to put it together.
And certainly more involved in it
are probably not by the way that it seems.
I think this is my veteran slogan now.
Well, I don't know if this is one of the NFT action and ghosts.
Maybe I'll throw this one over to you first.
So I think we've got three storylines happening.
We've got the crypto undeads back from the dead.
We have this penguins 1000X
and then we've got sujiko warriors,
which mentioned they're now up about 50% from mint.
What are you looking at?
How are you feeling about undeads, the sujiko,
or any and all of this?
What's on your mind with Solana right now?
I've been giving you a lot of thought
because obviously crypto undeads have been very polarizing
on the timeline over the last week or so.
But crypto undeads, I'm probably not going to own any.
But I'm not rooting against them, like some people are.
I think that we've become too tribal.
And that was kind of like what we saw a lot of in the bear market.
So I think we could all win.
There's plenty of pieces of the pie.
So while I don't own any undeads,
I'm not rooting against them by any means.
I just feel like they kind of felt like they had a bit of red flags.
They just felt off to me from the beginning with that one.
So not for me, but something I've been trying to do
is not get too up or down about not being invested in a certain project.
And there's just so many things to choose from out there.
So I've been picking and choosing the ones that I like
and the ones that I vibe with.
But I'm still rooting for crypto undeads.
And it seems like they have a lot of momentum.
They have the right people talking about the timeline.
I have no doubt that I think that they will continue to go up here
because I think that they have the right people supporting them as of now.
Yeah, that's hard to argue with.
So I may have basically sold the bottom on these.
When it was the post-reveal dump, they were going down.
I sold some around like the seven and a half sole mark.
I think they ended up going to about six or so.
And now, of course, they're up about a full 2x from there.
I guess my read was there just wasn't a whole lot of substance behind all this.
My quick FUD, I will share some FUD.
I'm not quite as nice as Ghost here who's choosing not to throw any mud.
And they're following the Moonbirds playbook,
which I feel like is a very interesting playbook to follow here in 2024.
They did day one, which is effectively the same thing as nesting.
They're encouraging folks to continue to hold and not list and not transfer.
They're talking about doing trait-based prizes or rewards for holders,
which is another Moonbirds tactic to a tee.
I think there's been rumors of a token and whatnot.
So I wasn't surprised to see it kind of pump into this whole day one situation.
We will see how they continue to hold up here.
But it does seem to me, I feel like it's Nakamigos.
It's like Solana Nakamigos.
It is what the analogy is in my head.
And what Nakamigos ran close to an eighth floor at peak before they reversed.
So what's an eighth floor in Solana terms, like 25 or so?
So I think that's probably my target for undeads.
I think they're going to run to 25 and probably reverse around there.
But we'll see how it plays out.
I feel like we've got some comments on this one.
So Logan, then Emily.
Yeah, I mentioned this to you offline as well, Tyler.
Actually, I'm sort of intrigued by the Moonbirds run back here,
only because I feel like Moonbirds had an impossible task with the day one rewards
and beyond, just because you couldn't possibly reward holders
in a way that felt significant given the asset price
that was attached to Moonbirds at the time.
Now, though, you're talking about an asset that's like $1,500
or in that realm.
So I think it becomes a whole lot easier to satisfy holders
with whatever reward it may be.
And so I actually think they can run this back
and it can be successful or at least perceived better
by the community, both holders and otherwise active participants.
And so I'm interested to see what happens there.
I don't necessarily think either one of those ideas were bad ideas.
I just think it was kind of an impossible situation.
And then, of course, when the fanny packs actually came out,
those types of things almost signaled doom and death with no coming back.
So I am curious about this one.
I think it's totally fine to run it.
Yeah, it's not bad. It's just a copy, right?
It's just not original.
And then I'm going to take the other side.
So you're saying folks' expectations will be lower.
Maybe that's fair.
But for example, there's the squigglehead trait,
which again was copied from Moonbirds.
These things were selling for $1,500.
What are you expecting if you hold that in a tee?
Are you expecting a picture of a squiggle?
You're certainly not going to be getting a squiggle that costs $20,000.
I'd be surprised if there's even a raffle, for one, if I'm being honest.
So we'll see.
I'll tone it down here for a bit, Emily.
Reactions?
I keep wanting to call them cryptown deeds.
The crypto undeads, it has all of the signs of a, if nothing else,
sophisticated team behind them, right?
It shows that they know how to market make.
It shows that they know how to recover a project.
It shows that they know how to get the right influencers involved,
particularly the ones that tend to carry money behind them
if they don't have money themselves.
All of those things are the type of sophistication that you do need
to actually succeed in the long-term.
So I think that those, regardless of how you feel about that ethically,
are good indicators.
However, do they have the motivation?
Do they have a long-term plan?
Does that long-term plan actually result in viability?
Or will they lose in the intention market in the meantime?
Hard to say, right?
Those things are harder to know,
but it does seem like the team does have the level of sophistication
at that minimum point to be able to compete.
So, I mean, there's that, I guess.
But then again, you're still on Salata, so good luck.
Yeah, I'm not going to argue with that.
These guys are masters of marketing.
It is not easy to sell out a $10,000 supply collection
at two and a half sold or three sold
and do this kind of a raise.
So I had to give them credit for that.
They had the marketing machine going.
I think my read is that there's just not much behind the veil.
I don't think there's a whole lot of grand plans or vision for this one,
but I could certainly be proven wrong.
Akane, you requested to come up.
Curious if you've got thoughts, reactions to the undeads
or any other action over on Salata.
Yeah, I mean, I was somewhat privy to a lot of the machinations around the drop.
I can't hear Akane.
Can you hear me?
Yeah, I can hear you, Akane.
Okay, someone just signal me when he's done.
Yeah, so I was just saying, I mean,
I was privy to a lot of the machinations around the drop
and just how clearly I was a web of well-connected folks
and there was a very strong and interesting distribution mechanism.
But so like Tyler, it just feels like there's just no substance.
I've talked to a number of people close to the project
and just asked simple questions like, what's the vision?
What are you guys trying to do?
And to me, the way I think about it is,
this is just a simple fundraise and it's an extremely high-risk project.
And if you cannot show me some sort of a path
to a product or a sustainable idea
that could potentially generate revenue,
then you're just basically selling attention.
And to me, that's a massive red flag,
especially when there's been nothing unique
in terms of what they've been doing.
It just feels to be that.
If insiders got in very cheap and early,
their basis is low, there are four or five XOP,
they're kind of playing with free money.
And so it's very easy for them to sort of sell out at certain points
if it's not really...
The vibes kind of like turn south.
So I think people should just see these things
as high-risk ventures and treat them that way.
You need to analyze it that even in the best intentions,
most of these things fail.
And if you don't have some sort of a clear vision
or idea of where the revenue is coming from,
I'd be very cautious, especially as the value continues to go up,
if it's not translating into a plan or a vision
that you can anchor against.
That's probably a good place to wrap the undead's combo, Tyler.
Sorry you didn't hear it, but Akin is now done,
if you want to move on.
Yeah, it sounds like he shares some similar thoughts.
We'll certainly continue to cover it on the show.
There's clearly some demand for this one.
We saw some mid-tiers and whatnot move a little bit.
But Ghost, I feel like one NFT on Solana
you did perhaps get into a little bit this weekend
was the Tsujiko Warriors.
Curious for your thoughts if you held through
the reveal reactions to reveal
perhaps any targets or predictions for that one?
Yeah, I got into the Warriors
because I think you posted it and I tailed you into it.
I didn't really know much about it.
And then you sold before I did.
So I don't really know too much
other than it seems like the dev behind it
is very well respected on the Solana ecosystem.
I saw a lot of people saying that they were buying it
because they were investing in Solana builders.
And so I think you probably have more insights
of the project than I do,
but I thought that the art looked pretty good.
It looks like, reminded me of Azuki's obviously.
It's really tough to create PFP projects
that are going to change any sort of people's minds
or reinvent the wheel in any way
because I feel like we've seen pretty much
all of the different variations of PFPs
you could possibly see.
But I thought that the art looked pretty good
and it was funny kind of showing how they were
juxtaposed with crypto undeads
because I think that crypto undeads
personally they didn't look that great to me.
It looks like something that you would find
in your hidden folder.
But I thought that the Warriors looked all right,
but I guess everyone has different opinions
on PFP projects there.
Launching the project's utility project
tied to the NFT perps protocol,
it felt worth taking a flyer on.
And then sadly,
did rotate over to Harambe,
the meme coin on Saturday,
which was unfortunate.
It sounds like I'm still a robot.
Logi, reactions on your side to Tsujiko's?
Not too much beyond what Go shared.
I've been following the dev.
I'm going to blank on the name,
so I'll just skip this and use dev
for a while on Twitter,
a builder of that little airdrop checker
and beyond.
And so I had known about that
and sort of known about Tsujiko
or the upcoming Tsujiko,
the perps platform,
and saw this at the last minute as well,
that public availability,
not much minting out,
or I guess what,
there was still about half of it left
available for public.
And it's one of those things like paying attention
to with the Dwight stuff as well,
once you start to get some momentum
through the end of a mint
that kind of lingers like that,
they seemingly always
at least give you some time,
even if you want to get in and out,
they seemingly always give you some time
to get in and out.
And then,
so I do have exposure here,
full disclaimer,
and I'm still holding that exposure,
seeing what Solana,
the ecosystem itself has done
for other building utilities
for years.
I'm not calling for this to
create some sort of same financial impact
but I think it presents some
relatively stable floor there
because of what's coming.
And somebody can jump in
and correct me if I'm wrong,
but I think Tsujiko's already even actually
teased the token,
which seemingly would come
with Tsujiko Warrior as well.
Yeah, that's a part of it.
So I think certainly there's a lot of upside.
Like the founder,
he's well connected,
you've got the perps protocol.
I guess my only downside on this one
does Solana need an NFT perps protocol
right now?
You know,
how valuable is that?
most of these NFTs are cheap enough
that you can buy them without really
going a perps route.
I don't know.
I think that's,
it just doesn't feel quite mature
enough for that,
you know,
why not Tsujiko Warriors?
They're early.
Why not Tsujiko?
I don't have an answer to that.
And I may consider re-buying,
full disclosure.
But Akin,
your hand popped up.
I'm curious if you've got a read
on Tsujiko's.
so I mean,
if you juxtapose it with undeads,
the Tsujiko Dev,
they build the airdrop platform,
over 13 million wallets.
They have over 2,000 pain subscribers
to the platform.
So that's,
in my mind is distribution,
And if you look at that as massive
distribution,
there are many ways you can leverage
especially when you start thinking
of a perps platform
where you can sort of leverage
both sides,
where people want to list their
props on the airdrop platform.
You can find ways to sort of capture
some of that distribution.
I think the other thing is also
making it extremely bullish about
the project
is just the close ties with Tensor
and the Tensorians.
Zay's mentor into Solana
was one of the founders of Tensor.
They have telegraphed
some sort of a partnership
when V2 launches
of the protocol.
I think the timeline for V2 launching
is something in April.
It tells me that there's a lot of
interesting things,
including the token
that's been telegraphed as well.
And so when I think about
just the quality of the dev,
what he's done before,
the network he's tied into,
which is natively
top tier Solana
products and devs.
It checks a lot of boxes
that at least,
in my mind,
makes it interesting to watch
and track,
especially at a token evaluation
and supply that I think is reasonable,
So it's four, four, four,
four tokens.
and I think,
I don't know,
I just think there are lots of things
that make it interesting
and it's worth keeping an eye on.
You missed,
a keen gave financial advice
to buy Sujiko Warriors.
Just kidding.
But if you would have heard
what he shared,
you would have gotten more bullish
on Sujiko Warriors,
that's for sure.
Not financial advice.
I'll speak for him then.
Oh, I have to listen to the replay.
did you have thoughts?
I was actually messaging
some of the stuff
that Akim was saying.
So he knows a little bit
of what's going on.
But I had more comments
on previously what we were
talking about with the
I feel like we need to remember
that 99% of these tokens
are probably going to be worthless
in the long run.
So when I see people
hailing that crypto on debts
is going to launch a token
or whoever is going to launch a token,
everyone gets super excited about it.
But it's like,
man, a lot of these,
do you really need a token?
Do you have a use for that token?
And we saw a lot of NFT projects
that just dropped the token
like they have that that perps protocol.
They have like a reason
where they could potentially
incorporate a token in some way
that makes sense.
But like for other projects
where it's like with crypto
on debts where you see them
like they're still hiring
a tokenomics expert.
Like what's going on with that?
Like why does that project
need a token right now?
Or why should I care about
that token personally?
So that's just my two sense.
But it feels like that's like
the hot thing to do right now
for any NFT projects to say,
oh, we have a token launching.
But like what's the use case
that's going to make it have value,
you know?
Yeah, I mean,
we're going to speed run the 2021 cycle.
It feels like and a part of that
is NFT projects with low floors
launching tokens for no reason.
So I won't be surprised about that.
I would agree.
I would agree with an NFT purpose protocol
launching a token tied to that
makes more sense.
So I'm not surprised that some
of the utility projects are doing that.
But, you know, certainly we will see.
I guess in somewhat breaking news,
I just saw there is some speculation
that Magic Eden may be releasing a token.
I don't have details behind that.
So do not quote me on that.
That would be huge, huge news.
Logan, do you have any additional detail?
Only that I saw a tweet from founder
or co-founder last week
that teased something big coming today.
So, yeah, I think this has been
speculated for some time,
maybe by us even, occasionally, right?
They opened up that diamonds or gems
claiming and earning a long, long time ago,
kind of way back when,
maybe even before Blur
or just slightly after Blur came around.
And I think in large part was probably
forgotten about that you could log in
and claim gems every single day.
And it seemed like no real reward
because what good are gems?
But gems, if a token comes,
are likely going to be rewarding.
And now Magic Eden is very much
the forefront of, you know,
ordinals trading and beyond.
I think prospects have shifted
dramatically for that company overall.
Yeah, I mean, so there's a couple
theories about what Magic Eden news could be.
Some folks thought it was going to be
the new marketplace with board apes.
There's also this Magic Eden wallet
that's supposed to be cross-chain
where you can trade Bitcoin,
Solana, ETH, all in one wallet,
which would be nice.
But I think what jumped out to me this morning,
I was logging into Magic Eden.
That's where I check all of my ordinals.
And the gem rewards is now much more strongly
highlighted in the upper right corner of the page.
So that, lining up with a potential token announcement,
would make sense.
And man, I do not have any gems.
I have not been logging in and collecting these gems.
So whoever has been doing that, you know,
hats off to you.
And if you haven't,
perhaps today is the day to start.
So we will certainly see,
if any real and actual news comes on that front,
that will be kind of a game changer,
a game stopper there for sure.
But as for today's show, folks,
I think we are going to go ahead and call it here.
We covered a lot recapping the weekend before we go.
What's minting today?
There's a lot of mints out there.
Memesby6529 just went live at 11 a.m. Eastern.
Simon Labeye changing places at 11.
Tony Babel and Typical Friends also at 11.
So live now.
We've got the Sotheby's natively digital auctions.
Those are ending at 2 p.m. Eastern.
Transient Labs frozen in time at 3 p.m. Eastern.
And then Commoner's on Bitcoin at 4 p.m.
Several artists are back on heap with Tony Babel, Simon,
and then Transient Labs all doing drops.
I think the highlights today,
though likely is over on Bitcoin with that Commoner's mint.
That is a free mint for anyone who holds an uncommon set.
So if you held an uncommon set in your wallet,
you will be able to inscribe in Memesby's.
But those uncommon sets are a 0.012 Bitcoin floor.
So if you don't own one, this will not be a free mint for you.
This is going to be an interesting one to watch here today.
But folks, that's it.
That's our show.
We'll be back tomorrow at 10 a.m. Eastern.
Thanks to our listeners for tuning in.
Thanks to my co-hosts.
Thanks to our team for coming on up.
Everyone, enjoy your Monday.
Let's make it a great day.
Bye, everybody.