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NVIDIA Just Bet BIG on this Company | $NVDA $NBIS $CRWV $IREN $SPY $QQQ $USO $CRM $NOW $IGV
Recorded: March 11, 2026 Duration: 1:29:26Space Recording
Full Transcription
what is going on everyone it has been a crazy morning for you all it has definitely been one
for myself newsreel after newsreel after newsreel but my goodness today is a today is a great day
for the portfolio we had the biggest news yet released this morning Nebius is investing $2 billion, sorry,
NVIDIA is investing $2 billion into Nebius.
And there is about five gigawatts capacity
that's gonna be specifically utilizing
NVIDIA AI infrastructure by 2030.
This is definitely great news to see
because it comes after NVIDIA away from investing or promising to invest $100 billion into OpenAI to reducing it down to something like $30 billion.
And then $2 billion on Nebius.
Now, OpenAI obviously is a much bigger bet, but OpenAI is an $800 billion company.
Nebius isn't even close to that amount.
And they're already investing a lot of capital to the company.
So very good news to see what is going on.
Everyone.
How are you?
Yes, sir.
Yes, sir.
Yes, sir.
Yes, sir.
Yes, sir.
Yes, madam.
Yes, madam.
How are you?
Oh my goodness.
I forgot to bring in my microphone.
I got this new microphone thing over here.
I apologize.
Yeah, no, the audio was not good because your boy did not bring over the microphone.
So it must be a lot better now.
Man, that was a terrible way to start the stream. But here we are again today. The audio must be a lot
better now. Yeah, it's definitely a lot better now. My bad. Man, super exciting morning.
Super exciting morning. Let's bring on the big charge. We're going to talk about a couple
more things today. We're going to keep it short and tight. We're going to talk about
Iran mines and escalation that's been happening, continuing to happen this morning. We're going
to talk about more software fight. The fight has not stopped a lot of these software stocks are down pretty big
today and it's it's pretty insane because like the terrorizing on software just does not end
let's bring up the charts over here man pretty crazy day in the markets we have the queues down
about 20 basis points. Oh,
it looks like it's a lot lower than when I looked at it about an hour ago. We do have,
let's see if Nebius is still up, man, that, that is a big move on Nebius. So Sox is up about 1%.
IGV is down about half a percent. But yeah, the Nebster is up almost 16 today this thing was up like almost 20 earlier wild move dude wild move
this has been a massive consolidation of nebius for quite some time and it looks like we are
breaking out here it'll be nice to see some follow-through on here we're good to see iran
is up nine percent on the base of that deal just shows and it just shows the video's
confidence in a lot of these neo clouds that are out there cypher is up 43 basis points applied
digital is up about four percent terrible is up about seven percent corv is up about seven percent
or nine percent actually bouncing off the lows over there but nevius just the massive outperformance compared to all the neoclouds and BTC miners out there, ex-BTC miners.
Man, it has been a wild ride.
Just the volatility up and down, up and down, up and down.
So we do need to see a breakout here to the upside in order to see continued momentum here.
But let's take a look at the press release that Neveus did release.
Also, NVIDIA also released it on their website i will pull it
up over here for you guys and we're going to take a look at this a little bit closer together so
nvidia nebius partnered a scale full stack ai cloud we already know that nebius is not a hundred
percent full stack but the new data centers they are building are full stack
they own the land they own the building all the equipment everything deep engineering
collaboration on ai factories powering inference and agentic ai enables nebius to deploy more than
five gigawatts of nvidia systems by the end of 2030 we had less than four gigawatts promised that was actually planned capacity during the last earnings.
Now they've bumped that up to five gigawatts capacity of just NVIDIA systems.
So there could be more data centers beyond this if it's not just NVIDIA,
but definitely five gigawatts of NVIDIA systems by the end of 2030.
NVIDIA will invest $2 billion in Nebius, reflecting NVIDIA's confidence in Nebius' business and
unique depth of engineering expertise across the full technology AI stack.
Nebius has been around for decades, decades.
It was known as Yandex before they got based in the Netherlands and before they got listed
in NASDAQ.
They sold all the russian assets they were the google of russia and they had to sell all those
assets in order to be listed on the nasdaq and they have parted ways with that and now they are
full-fledged company being backed by nvidia with two billion dollars to help meet rapidly growing
global demand for high performance compute the partnership partnership deepens Nebius and NVIDIA's relationship
across the full AI technology.
How many times are you going to say full AI technology stack?
I mean, you can't even really hear enough of that.
The thing is up like 60% today.
From AI factory architecture to produce software,
enabling Nebius to accelerate the build out of its industry-leading full stack.
Full stack again,
AI cloud platform. This partnership upon Nebius' ongoing deployment of NVIDIA infrastructure
across its global platform includes multi-gigawatt scale AI factories in US, the US,
not Israel, not Europe, in the US. Inference, AI infrastructure deployment, fleet management,
AI factory design and support, NVIDIA's accelerated computing program.
As Jensen Wong said many times, AI is another inflection point,
a genetic AI driving incredible compute demand
and accelerating AI infrastructure build out,
said Jensen Wong, founder and CEO of NVIDIA.
Nebius is building an AI cloud designed for a Gentic era,
fully integrated from Silicon to software and powered by NVIDIA's next
generation accelerated compute.
Together we are scaling the cloud to meet the surging global demand for
intelligence.
Now quote from Arcadia Vela's CEO of Nebius, also CEO of Yandex when they're in
Russia. Nebius has been built for AI since day one, not adapted from general purpose CompuCloud,
but designed for what developers actually need. Now with NVIDIA, we are extending that throughout
the stack from gigawatt scale AI factories to inference and software as we build
one of the first and largest clouds for all ai builders everywhere the next amazon aws let's go
let's go up 16 today man that is a monster move uh what's going on with ttd down big come on man
we're talking about nebis we're not talking about tdd let's go man let's go stay on topic let's go all right so there's obviously a lot more to this than
than we uh that's behind the curtain here but let's go back to exactly what's been happening
over here with the whole neocloud sector we had the debt issues that came up with oracle with the cds spreads
whitening meaning that debt just became a lot more risky for oracle over the last six months
we had core weave basically get hit with that because they're promising a lot of compute as well
and their cds spreads did whiten and this reflected upon the entire neocloud and
miner sector. It affected IRON. It affected Cypher, Applied Digital, Terawolf, all these
companies, and including Nebius. Nebius went all the way down to sub $70 after IRON reported their
earnings last quarter, and IRON dipped below $30. And then on top of that, just last week, you saw the news that Iron was raising $6 billion
for dilution.
Wasn't all at once.
Things got a little bit out of hand there with that announcement, but definitely did
affect the entire sector, but not as much as Nebius.
Nebius is getting a $2 billion investment from NVIDIA.
And now instead of having just a few gigawatts of capacity at scale,
it's now at least five gigawatts capacity of just NVIDIA-based systems. Guys, this is big. This is
seriously a big move for the entire sector and does exuberate a lot of confidence. These hyperscalers are
pressing their bets with these new clouds and miners because they cannot build it on their own.
So they need the help of these other companies to accelerate the AI infrastructure build out
for, of course, the agentic AI era. What are those set of words that they constantly say over and over again? The AI agentic AI infrastructure stack, AI agent, whatever it is, this compute is obviously
needed and it's needed very quickly at an accelerated pace.
And that warrants a $2 billion from NVIDIA.
GTC is going on next week, which is basically NVIDIA's hosted event where Jensen Wong is
which is basically NVIDIA's hosted event where Jensen Wong is going to have his keynote there.
going to have his keynote there.
And lots of companies that are involved in this entire stack, whether it's a software stack,
whether it's the cloud stack, whether it's the infrastructure stack,
or whether it's even the land stack, energy stack, whatever it is, they're all going to be there.
With Jensen Wong basically giving his keynote, talking about hundreds of companies out there.
But the one company who's always talked about many times and has backed on before in the past,
before this $2 billion investment was Nebius and it was also CoreWeave.
But now we're seeing a little bit more favorable toward CoreWeave as they did get that additional investment.
Now, the question begs to ask, how come he didn't give it to CoreWeave?
Why didn't NVIDIA give it to CoreWeave?
Is it because there's risk with CoreWeave or why didn't he give it to iron why didn't he give it to cypher
or any of the other companies he's putting his money where his mouth is all right maybe he might
give it a core weave later on but as we know right now he had to reduce his bet on open ai
and therefore increase his bet on nebius they already did own stake in Nebius, but this
just further increases the bet that Jensen Wong is putting on Nebius, which really shows the
confidence, especially the fact that this news release came out even after Nebius was trading
near $100. And now it's up about 16% today trading in the hundred teens which it hasn't since last last november so we're seeing
a lot of momentum come back in the space while the market is just chopping away left and right so
definitely going to be more things definitely an exciting day day for me am i selling any nevius
absolutely not not selling any nevius i'm going to be holding on to this i'm going to continue
holding on to it i don't own any more iron.
I already told you guys I sold that at $45.
It's trading less, so I can easily jump back in iron.
But honestly, if I would reinvest more into the sector,
I would just press my bet at Nebbius.
I don't think I would look at anything else,
which is the way it has been since a year ago
when I started investing in Nebius at $25. And since then, it is more than
four times up and I'm still going to hold onto it. I still think it's very early in the story if this
agentic AI reality has actually come to fruition, especially when AGI comes into play. When you have
artificial general intelligence, this is like baby numbers for the
amount of compute that needs to be built out at scale when you start bringing in artificial
general intelligence you're going to need a lot more infrastructure out there and also a lot more
efficiency and this is the reason why you're seeing semiconductors lead the market we are in
the build-out phase still i thought we would be in the software phase two by now but it
doesn't look like the market agrees the market is selling off software stocks and buying more
semiconductors at least that's what i see if i look over here on the charts here dude like queues
are down today bitcoin is up one percent i'm kind of surprised about that one rsp is down today but semiconductors
are up semiconductors are up one percent today the market is telling you that it's betting on
semiconductors look at all these semiconductor stocks over here sterile labs is up seven percent
marvel well i don't know why marvel is down three percent that sucks Navitas is up 23% there must have been some Navitas news over here actually
interesting hold on a second I just want to put this song as our people can watch the show on
YouTube if you're on Twitter guys tune on to tune on to the YouTube channel show us some love over
here because we do some crazy stuff over here also additional videos on the wolf channel so go ahead
and check that out if you're on channel, kudos to you as well.
But yeah, so there must be some news that's on Navitas
because Navitas is up 20%.
Let's see here.
I don't see anything.
Navitas is a partner of NVIDIA.
There has to have been some news.
Why?
All right. So AHhr is flat today so um is it just like a technical thing yeah i don't i don't see any oh here we go i think i see it over here let me go ahead and share my screen why it's up
over here. Let me go ahead and share my screen. Why it's up. I mean, I think this is the news,
right? Navitide adds topside cooled QD pack and low profile to da da da da da.
This is the reason why it's up today. Two and a half times volume.
I guess, you know, Navitas is a very volatile stock. So, you know, we got to be
pretty careful when we're buying this one. This is not profitable company, right? So even though
Nebius is not a profitable company, they are getting a lot more investments. I mean, if you're
holding Navitas or probably a long term, like long, long term for years, you know, it would,
it would kind of make sense to DCA over here but like to go all in on
something like this now appetizes more in power management this is uh somewhat of a competitor
to on semiconductor which i've been invested in for some time on semiconductors down about one
percent yeah there's a lot of things that are down today but uh we are starting to see a lot of money
flow back into semiconductors as well as the neoclouds. Software over here is, I think it's because oil is coming
back, right? So I'm just looking at the chart right now, just to get an idea where the markets
are at. Yeah, oil is up 5%. The Iran war is not deescalating as much as people thought that it
would be yesterday. In fact, they did interview Trump on Forbes.
I'm going to play a little bit of this over here to see what information we can find as far as any commentary that Trump gave on the war.
We saw a lot of escalation yesterday, but just to kind of recap, we saw yesterday probably like throughout the day.
We've obviously seen oil spike, and then we did see the potential release of some barrels of oil from the G7.
And then that no longer happened.
Then Trump started talking about keeping the oil prices down.
Trump's prerogative is definitely to keep the oil prices down because he does not want $100 plus per barrel of oil because that does.
It's going to have a major impact to society.
And if you do have that, then you're going to get probably more inflation coming back
to the market. And that would press harder against the growth rate of the US. And therefore,
that might actually tamper some stagflation fears. I don't personally think that's going to happen,
but oil prices are back here below $100. And it's definitely Trump's prerogative to keep these
tame. He does not want oil prices to be higher higher so there was some talk about that in his press release the other day um also in addition to that there were some mines
that were supposedly placed in the straight of hummus uh and then trump said that there are no
mines and then he said there were mines but they were inactive and then they destroyed like a hundred
plus of them i mean it's really a lot of back and forth but you're seeing a lot of escalation when
it comes to the war and doesn't seem like it's stopping anytime soon. And really the market's concerned about the straight of
hummus. I don't think it's, I don't think it has so much of a problem as far as the war goes.
It's more concerned about the straight because when you're, when you're straining the supply
of oil across the entire world, as a lot of the oil does pass through that straight,
then you're increasing the demand or you're lowering the supply or supplies decreasing. The demand still stays afloat. So they increase the price
of oil. And if that happens, it affects everything. We've talked about that in nauseam on the stream
and the podcast a lot lately. But when the mining situation got brought up, you saw a lot of bidding
with Kraken Robotics, a lot of the submarine stocks as well. I had Michael Seekin on there.
You guys can go ahead and check out the
podcast i recorded yesterday with michael c ken uh uber bull for uh cracking robotics congratulations
to people who are in there in fact what's uh krknf whoops i'm just looking at to see what
it's trading at today uh it's a little bit laggy on uh the trading view yeah it's down like three
percent so it gave up some of its gains yesterday i think it was pretty extended and we didn't see any follow through with that move so
we'll see what happens there but still very early in that game i still need to look into that company
but let's go ahead and take a look at some commentary that trump said to forbes during
its interview they are they've lost their navy they've lost their Navy. They've lost their Air Force.
They have no anti-aircraft apparatus at all.
They have no radar.
Their leaders are gone.
And we could do a lot worse to one another.
We're leaving certain things that if we take them out
or we could take them out by this afternoon,
in fact, within an hour,
they literally would never be able to build that country back.
The Pressure says that the military investigation has found
that the United States struck the school in Iran.
As commander-in-chief, do you take responsibility for that?
The President's what?
The Pressure says that the military investigation has found How do you take responsibility for that? That is what? As commander in chief, do you use... For what?
For the strike on the school in Iran, a new report says the military investigation
has found it was the United States that struck the school.
I don't know about that.
Mr. President, how do you respond to this?
Are you talking to the CEOs of various oil companies,
encouraging them to use this straight-up?
Yeah, I think they should. I think theyup or I think they should I think they should I think they should use
look we took out just about all of their mine ships in one night we're up to boat
number 60 I didn't realize that that big a Navy I would say it was big and
ineffective but every one of their ships just about all of their navy is gone.
It's bottom of the sea.
Mr. President, how do you respond?
Mr. President, how do you respond?
Have they laid any minds in this straightforward move?
We don't think so.
Mr. President, Mr. President, is Senator Thune,
is Senator Thune listening to you when you say,
you want to pass the Save America Act?
He says there aren't the votes to do it right now. What's your response?
Well, he's got to be a leader. You know, he's a leader. He's got to get him.
It's the most popular bill I've ever seen put before Congress.
And it's voter ID and it's voter. You have to be able to be a citizen to vote. It's called citizenship.
called citizenship.
And we're also adding in no men playing in women's sports,
no transgender mutilization of our children,
and no mail-in ballots, fake mail-in ballots.
We have none of that,
except in the case of the military, et cetera.
The Pressure of the President,
how do you call it?
The President, it is the Save America Act. It's the most popular bill President. The President. The President.
The President.
The President.
The President.
The President.
The President.
The President.
The President.
The President.
The President.
The President.
The President.
The President.
The President.
The President.
The President.
The President.
The President.
The President.
The President.
The President. The President. The President. The President. The President. The President. The President, I don't want to comment on that. But I will tell you, I just spoke with various countries,
the leaders of various countries.
You'll have a list.
And they said they've never seen anything like it.
We have, and I built it during my first term,
and I used it.
I didn't realize I was going to use it this month.
But we have the greatest military in the world by far.
Nobody's heard.
The Press, are's home about a domestic
the field of the america's mexico brazil and colombia were not invited to the
field of the america's why was that and should they come in the future i think
they were invited maybe they didn't come I think they were invited. Maybe they didn't come. I think they were. I get along very well with all of them.
Mr. President, in Iraqi parliament, students, members slogan,
day to America, day to Israel. What is your response to them? What is your message for Iraqi government?
What did he say?
Spain?
I think they've been very bad.
Very bad.
Not good at all.
We may cut off trade.
And Hezbollah is making danger for the liberation.
All right.
I think he's said more than a few things over there.
Definitely try to talk down the war.
He's saying that they're going to be more aggressive with Iran. And then he's saying that the war is on track
to end soon. We're getting mixed signals over here, clearly. And I think the market is ingesting
that in the way that it actually is. I mean, the markets are still continuing to be choppy.
So we will see, guys. Digital ocean. Oh, what's this?
Applied digital announces $2.15 billion. It doesn't seem to be affecting the stock too much.
Yeah. Oh, it's interesting. Digital ocean is up 10% today. I was trying to see the reason why it's
up 10%. It's pretty interesting because
this is a stock that I know a lot of people are long. This is more in the edge compute.
This is actually makes sense, but yeah, DigitalOcean is kind of breaking out here
from its little bit of consolidation. OSS is also edge compute as well. And that one
is finding a little bit of a bid up over here but still the markets
are just continuing to be choppy and software continues to be sold off uh cloudflare is in
the 211 so good for cloudflare but yeah team atlassian is continuing to be weak workdays
continue to be weak zeta is continuing to be weak unfortunately zeta is i mean this is in the software
tool belt um gitlab is in the low 20s
which is crazy i'm surprised actually yeah that's a new 52 week low over here i'm surprised no one's
acquiring this company this seems like an acquisition target how cheap it's trading now
less than four billion dollars and i think that's less than four times uh for price to sales because
i think they're in the one billion dollar range service now is down two percent thought that one was breaking out it's not sales force is down one percent i mean this could just
be some consolidation here because see it's finding some support over here that's what
did he moving average let's look at service now yeah it's finding support in the 21 ema
i you know it could just could be consolidating a little bit because it did make a big move to
the upside so a little bit of a pullback before it makes another leg higher. Zeta is doing good. It's finding support off the 200 day moving
average. So it's good to see. Adobe is down. Yeah, it just looks like software is just taking a
little bit of a pullback, taking a little bit of a breather after a big move. And IGV is crossing
over on the 21 EMA, 98. That actually looks like a pretty bullish setup right there. So we'll see
what happens with that one. VIX is basically flat today. So, you know, that's good to see that
volatility isn't rising too rapidly. But it's interesting to see that the RSP, the equal weight
has taken a little bit of a hit lately, while tech kind of recovers a little bit. But
semiconductors basically led the market back up. But we do want to see this flip happen
back here. Otherwise, you know, it's still chopping markets, still chopping markets. What?
No market closed today. All right. We'll see you guys. We'll see. We'll see. Cause I do got some
things I got to do over here. I got some things I got to do at home. Wow. 174 of you, 129. You
on my channel, 45 in the Wolf Financial channel. Again, go ahead and check out Wolf Financial. Lots of videos on there. Lots
of stuff here on my channel. Kudos to you as well. Welcome to the solid report. All right. So there
is a bit of a software sell-off. We did have a little bit of a discussion about this on CNBC.
I want to play this clip for you as they start to talk about
more software spending strategies under scrutiny amid AI disruption. I'll give my thoughts about
that one after as well. But let's go ahead and take a look at this clip from CNBC.
Moody's downgrading Salesforce as the company reportedly kicks off a debt sale
of up to $25 billion to fund some stock buybacks. Our Deirdre Bosa is watching that in today's Tech Check.
This is definitely making the rounds, Dee.
It is.
Morning, Carl.
So one way to read this deal is that Salesforce is borrowing to buy time and not growth.
Now, this would be the largest bond sale in its history, and it's likely a show of confidence
for management.
But the money is not going towards a new product
acquisition or AI infrastructure. That's the stuff that everyone else is spending or borrowing for.
Debt-funded buybacks, they work only as long as the underlying business itself justifies the bet.
For Salesforce, the poster child of the software sell-off, tripling its debt to prop up the stock
price is a gamble that AI disruption fears are overblown. But if management is wrong, the balance sheet could make things worse. Now, to be fair, you can see why
management feels confident on the surface. They just beat earnings, revenue over 40 billion,
free cash flow. AgentForce, their AI platform is growing nearly 170% year over year. But you dig a
little deeper and AgentForce is actually still less than 2%
of total revenue. The stock is down over the last five years. And while other software names like
ServiceNow, Datadog, Shopify, while they have bounced this month, Salesforce is flat. So the
market is starting to pick favorites in the SaaS sell-off. CRM isn't one of them, at least yet.
One more thing that's worth flagging here. Salesforce pays its employees roughly three and a half billion dollars a year in stock that dilutes existing shareholders. So
a meaningful chunk of every buyback, it's not actually returning capital. It's just offsetting
stock based compensation. Now, investors have spent years telling Mark Benioff to stop doing
acquisitions of return capital. So that's what he's doing. And Sarah, I know that you spoke to
him. He said the number one great value out there right now, it is CRM, it's Salesforce, but he might be right. But levering
up to buyback stock, that is the playbook, very reminiscent of IBM and the old Oracle before AI,
not a company that is pioneering a new AI age. Yeah. I mean, they just feel a lot of conviction
about where the stock is right now.
And it was interesting. I also in the interview asked him about M&A because all these software
valuations, you know, according to him, have gotten so cheap. And he said there are a lot of
interesting opportunities out there. It didn't really go beyond that, but said we have a very
disciplined approach to M&A because, as you said, he's been pushed by investors, I think, to be
really disciplined when it comes to that answer and the use of cash. But it you said, he's been pushed by investors, I think, to be really disciplined
when it comes to that answer and the use of cash.
But it's not like he's the only one borrowing.
I mean, Amazon or like a lot of them are tapping the debt markets right now.
Yes.
And I'm so glad you bring that up.
I didn't have time to get to it in that segment, but that is a key point here.
So others like Amazon and Oracle, even Alphabet, they are borrowing, but they're not borrowing
for buybacks.
They're borrowing to fund growth.
Many of them are spending on infrastructure, which will bolster the AI bet.
They have sort of a plan, whereas Salesforce and Benioff, they're borrowing to buy back
stock.
They don't have any better ideas.
have any better ideas. I know he's been burned by M&A.
I know he's been burned by M&A.
Yeah, I posted about this one the other day, and I thought it was pretty interesting.
The headline is a few days old, but a few days old. Wow, that was yesterday. Good Lord.
Yeah, Salesforce is selling $25 billion worth of debt. And part of it's to fund their buybacks.
Like, honestly, a lot of people ask, like, why isn't Amazon buying back their stock?
Or why does an Amazon issue a dividend?
First of all, if Amazon were to do that, I probably would not be as bullish Amazon as I should be.
And the reason why is because, look, if you don't know what you do with your money,
that you think that you'll find a better return on capital by buying back your own stock versus
reinvesting into different businesses, or maybe reinvesting to certain verticals within your
company or reinvesting into agent force, which is Salesforce is a all-star AI platform. Um, which Deidre Bosa did say that that's
less than 2% of the revenue, $800 million. Look, if you can't figure out a better way to use your
money versus buying back the stock, the fact you have to issue debt to buy back your stock,
you've already reached a level of maturity for your company, like max level maturity.
So if Amazon were to say that they want to buy back their stock and start issuing dividend,
that would get me pretty bearish Amazon.
Now, why would that get me bearish Amazon?
Well, Amazon is spending a lot of money to invest into its AI infrastructure build-out
because they're the largest hyperscale in the world.
They see a lot of growth in that sector, and they're also reinvesting to other businesses as well. Project Kuiper, in addition to Zoox and so on, all these
other side businesses or side hustles they're trying to do. There really won't be any reason
to buy back their own stock because if they do buy back their own stock, that's basically them
telling the market, we don't know what to do with all this extra money or money that we're going to
issue debt for other than just buy back our stock and hope our stock goes up right and they could be confident in their execution
and they could salesforce could underperform the sp500 for quite some time which would mean that
they would have done better buying sp500 than buying back their own stock that's essentially
if you're buying back your own stock you're essentially saying that I don't see value in investing in anything else other than just buying back my own stock.
Salesforce is saying that, and it's not something that Salesforce is dead or anything. If you're
saying that they've reached a level of maturity in their company growing at about 10%. And a lot
of the growth is going to be, is going to continue to be unorganic that look they're not a growth company disguised as a mega cap they're no longer
that amazon is a mega cap disguised as a growth stock right sorry a growth stock disguised as a
mega cap because amazon is growing their largest business by about 22 24 and they're continuing to
do so and they also have these other businesses and they're also expanding to emerging markets as well.
And they also have other things that they're doing
in terms of advertising and other stuff.
There's a lot to do with Amazon.
This is the reason why I'm so bullish Amazon
for these very reasons.
Salesforce is mostly software, a SaaS platform.
And they will still be around.
No one's going to get rid of Salesforce.
Like Salesforce would be around for a long time.
They're not going anywhere.
But I think when you're trying to find certain investments that can boost its return of capital
to its shareholders, right now to them, a $50 billion buyback is the best approach to
them.
And that is essentially telling the market that they might not be seeing any excessive
growth for the near term even the
long term the fact that you have to even take out debt to do it versus taking out debt to fund
infrastructure or taking out debt to invest in new ventures or anything like that they're just
buying back their own stock and for me that's probably the reason why i'm not buying salesforce
over here even though they are trading historically cheap. Let's look at the Salesforce chart first.
Actually, hold on a second.
Let's look at the fiscal AI.
Let's take a look at some metrics over here with Salesforce
and we'll come up with the argument
and back the argument that Salesforce
might not be the best buying the stock market.
And I know a lot of people are bullish Salesforce.
Like it's going to be, if software comes back,
Salesforce is going to be referred.
And I've been listening to more than a few podcasts
about this one, listening to certain takes that people have with it. Like be if software comes back Salesforce is going to be referred. And I've been listening to more than a few podcasts about this one,
listening to certain takes that people have with it.
Like what if software goes back up,
but what if it doesn't go back up to previous levels where it had its premium
for over a decade?
The issue here is that software has been trading at a premium valuation for
quite some time.
And the AI bill that continues to be in semiconductors or picks and shovels
play.
So if I go to Salesforce over here, I go to the financials.
They've basically been growing at about 10% for the last couple of years.
It doesn't seem like they're going to accelerate past into double digit growth again.
The gross margins have been somewhat flat for the last like 10 years over here at around 77%,
but they are software companies. So those are very high gross margins. Operating profit,
they are heading back closer into further into profitability on an operating basis,
which is good to see. So their EBIT margins are increasing and expanding,
and they could probably expand a little bit more, maybe 25%. 25% is a good terminal rate for a lot
of software companies that are growing at 10%. Sometimes some software companies, especially Meta and stuff, they're like 40% operating margins,
but because they're growing a lot faster and they have a lot of verticals, they have a lot of high
margin businesses like advertising. Salesforce, on the other hand, doesn't have that. They don't
necessarily have that leverage to pull in order to warrant investing in other verticals. That's why they're buying back their stock.
I wanted to look at their businesses over here. They do have a lot more growth in Europe as well as Asia Pacific. They are finding that, but most of the growth is really going to be in
the Americas, but they got about $27 billion. Last quarter, last year, they're at $41 billion.
billion dollars uh sales revenue is somewhat slowing down here service revenue is probably
a much higher margin business for them because that involves building a lot of stuff for customers
um total subscription revenue at 10 so we did see a little bit of acceleration here last year
but yeah i mean reporting performance obligations this is's at 14 per 2%, but this isn't exactly built to the client yet. So that still does need
to take some time to flow into the top line. And then let's take a look at their valuation.
I think it stays to say that we can even look at the Ford PE and Salesforce since they're a lot
more mature and a lot more profitable in terms of a company they're trading at uh
at about 14 times uh pe which is relatively cheap probably the cheapest yes the cheapest
salesforce has been for the last 10 years so people are like pounding the table saying like
this is the best buying the stock market the problem is that when you have igv all the way
down here and let's say igv comes back to um bit higher, let's say IGV rallies like 30%.
Well, Salesforce is going to rally as well.
Salesforce makes up a large part of IGV, so does Microsoft and so on.
The thing is that you have a lot of software companies that are growing tremendously faster, not nearly as profitable as Salesforce, and probably not buying back their stock.
But more importantly, they're growing in like high double digits, right?
So if you have a company like ServiceNow, they're growing like around 20%.
They are continuing to expand profitability.
You have Rubrik growing at like 50%.
They are free cash flow positive, but they are not profitable on the bottom line,
but they will eventually get there in the next couple of years.
On an adjusted basis, they're expected to be there next year.
And then you also have Zeta, which is already profitable on the bottom line. And they're going to be going at 35% next year,
and then close to 40%. So there are other better plays, in my opinion, if software comes back.
Sales are probably the least riskiest out of all of them. But I would argue that the amount of risk
you need to put on the table for something like a service now, you have much more upside.
But today, unfortunately, the market doesn't agree.
The market does not agree that software is going to come back.
Software is down 36 basis points at a one-day scale.
Semiconnectors are up about 1%, and Qs are still down about 27 basis points.
We're continuing to be in this chop.
But in the midst of all this chop, semiconductors and pixels are leading the curve right now.
It'll probably change at some point, but it hasn't changed today.
And it certainly has not changed the last few months.
So that's why I continue to business myself in a lot of semiconductors.
I did rotate some capital to buy more software, but software is like excluding AWS or Amazon,
which is not necessarily a software play by any means,
but software is probably like less than 20% of my portfolio. And there was a point probably a few
years ago where it was like 50 plus percent. And the writing was on the wall that software isn't
there yet. And the market came to realization last few months that it could come back and it could
be a great long-term play. I agree with you. It could be a long-term play and it is, it is a long, that's why I bought Rubrik.
That's why I bought more, that's why I bought, I've been buying Zeta and that's why I bought
ServiceNow, but it's not today. And, uh, unfortunately, you know, it could stay that
way for some time or come back tomorrow. But the way that things are developing from what the price
action is telling you in today's market is that it's not today so you know invest in the future dca software companies
you'll be happy you did maybe like four or five years from now um but if you really want to catch
that tailwind in the market the tailwind is clear clearly semiconductors and i thought maybe the
ratio might balance out over here like if i look at at, uh, if I look at the SP 500 sectors
and I look at the ratio over here, we are seeing a little bit of a pullback. This is, this is,
this is probably going to come back up, right? So this doesn't mean that semiconductors are
going to go down and software is just going to go up. This just basically means that semiconductors
have been outperforming software since a year ago, right? So we had the bottom in April.
And since April,
semiconductors have been outperforming software
for quite some time.
So maybe we reached an inflection point,
but this looks like over here,
this 50 EMA is just resistance.
Even if we look on the weekly chart, right?
It's just continues to be resistance here.
So you need a massive mean reversion
to be able to see that happen.
And just look at how good software
has been outperforming semiconductors
for the last 20 years,
especially since 2007,
when Salesforce started getting bigger,
when Microsoft started getting bigger
and all these SaaS companies started coming around.
You've had software just outlandishly
outperform semiconductors for quite some time. And maybe it could be coming around. You've had software just outlandishly outperform semiconductors for quite some time.
And maybe it could be coming back. Maybe this could be a great setup over here for software
for now. But I do believe that I'll be able to business myself correctly once we start to see
that confirmation that, hey, software is coming back. I can react pretty fast when it comes to
that. I can react in less than a couple of months to rotate a lot of business, my portfolio to capture that move, but I'm going to ride the trend here.
The trend is your friend guys. That that that's the model I go by. The trend is your friend.
And I, I won't, I didn't buy falling knives. Like I didn't catch service now under a hundred dollars.
Unfortunately, I wish I did, but I didn't. And I did abide by my rules. Like everyone has to have
rules and standards for how they invest in their portfolio or how they trade.
And you have to stick to those rules.
And if you're going to change them,
don't change them day by day.
Change them over a period of time
after you observe your performance.
And for me, I've seen that my performance
has been a lot better since I started thinking more
like the medium term and maybe like short to medium term, medium to long
term scale in terms of outperformance of the market. And I will continue to do so because
I've seen that help my investment strategy. And my investment strategy might not be for everyone,
but this is just how I work. People might be different, buy and hold for 10 plus years.
And this could be generational buys for software companies, right?
Not all of them, but certain companies.
Yeah, it's historically cheap.
So I don't want to say these stocks are cheap, okay?
Because if you say that these stocks are cheap, you're comparing it to the broad markets.
And they still do trade relatively expensive for other companies and semiconductors with a pretty decent gross margins. Like for example,
Nvidia. Okay. Like we don't even have to look at the price to earnings,
but even on price to sales perspective, Nvidia is somewhat expensive,
but if you look at how profitable they are today,
it does justify that premium that they do have on a price to sales.
If you look at a service now, I think that they are have on a price to sales. If you look at ServiceNow, I think that
they are going to expand profitability, but they're certainly not going to get to the point
of profitability that NVIDIA is at right now. So NVIDIA could be a better buy than ServiceNow here,
right? It could be a better buy. Yeah. I mean, I agree with you. It could be a good call for a few
years. It depends on how you position your portfolio. So if you are someone who does not want to look at their portfolio
every day, is not trying to outrageously outperform the market year in and year out,
then yeah, it could be something. But if you're looking to relatively outperform the market on a
year-to-year scale, you need to think about these things, right? So it's not necessarily for everyone. Apple 11 has had quite a bounce lately, actually. Let's take a look at
the Apple 11 chart over here. Oh, it's back in the 460s again. Dude, this thing was like in the 500
just like a couple of days ago. Yeah. So this thing had its earnings and I mean, these numbers are crazy.
The numbers they're posting on their earnings. Actually, let me take a look at
the fiscal AI over here.
Hey guys, keep me, keep me posted on any news that comes out. Cause I'm like not good at like
keeping up with
the news over here while i'm looking at like some market stuff in fact that does remind me
let me look at the news real quick see if there's anything developing um now i don't really see
anything i usually look at like whatever's happened in the market like if the market is
like moving very big then there's some big news that's out. But if like the market is just flat, like it is right now, then like nothing, there's
really nothing that's out there.
All right.
So, uh, app loving, let's take a look at their revenues.
I mean, this is, this is, this is crazy growth, like 70% growth.
Um, they had a slower quarter this, uh, this quarter, but if you look at their
segment KPIs, we really want to look at the software platform revenue. Why was
that's interesting. Why was this only 20%? Oh, it's because yeah, they, they offloaded,
um, one of their businesses and they basically dropped a lot of revenue over here the the
apps are and they sold this business and uh they basically gave up a lot of growth but if you do
look at their largest business which is pretty much all of their revenue um it is their software
platform revenue so i would look at this one here it's still growing at 69 so if we do look at their
software platform EBITDA oh they don't list it separately okay so let's go ahead do look at their software platform, EBITDA, oh, they don't list it separately. Okay. So let's go ahead and look at their income statement over here.
And their operating margins are like 70.
Their operating margins are 77 freaking percent, guys.
Like this is, these are some crazy numbers.
These are some crazy numbers.
Let's look at the ratios over here and see what they're valued at.
So on a price to, no, I want to look at EBITDA.
They're trading at over here.
Yeah, they're trading historically cheaper other than, of course, before that.
This was before Apple Oven really boomed when the ad market started taking off.
So I don't think you're ever going to get these prices again.
This is when Apple Oven was, I think it was under $100.
Yeah, this is when Apple Oven was trading at like $37 freaking dollars.
Oh, no, not $, uh, less than a hundred
dollars. And then that's when you had your boom over here. So I'm going to go ahead and hide the
stock price. Um, yeah, so they're pretty, pretty cheap relative to their previous valuations.
Um, but it's very difficult to know if like, Hey, is this going to come back here? Is,
is app loving going to get back to these valuations over here
i think a lot of it has this has to do with um all of uh all of advertising right the advertising or
ad tech sector is it getting like the best love and that's not just advertising sector it's also
marketing marketing tech or martech advertising tech and uh advertising be like reddit app loving ttd and speaking of td i think someone
mentioned earlier that ttd was down again yeah ttd is down like two percent you got to remember that
um jeff green did buy a lot of stock 150 million dollars worth of stock so his conviction is pretty
high there like it's a bit different like when a ceo buys 150 million dollars of its stock versus
like buybacks,
like taking out debt to buy back your stock,
it says a little bit different there.
The TTD bottom, they might've bottomed guys.
Like that's, that's like massive conviction, like $150 million.
What is Jeff Green's net worth?
Jeff Green's net worth is $2.2 billion.
He basically put almost 10% of his net worth to buy his own stock.
That's some serious freaking conviction.
I mean, handed, most of his net worth is in the stock,
but that's a lot of conviction right there.
Yeah, no, the operating margins are insane.
Let's take a look at the AppLovin chart and see what's going on over here.
I don't think I'm going to do the market close, close guys i don't think i have time to do mark close unfortunately
um but uh i'm sure someone will step up to the plate with that one so if we look at app loving
it's coming over here it's back testing it's when it ema i mean this doesn't look like it's
falling off cliff guys it just looks like a little bit of a pullback after a massive run
just looks like a little bit of a pullback after a massive run. So since its bottom app loving
jumped up like 40%, 40%. And then now it pulled back 11%. Like, come on guys, it's still up 30%
from its bottom. Like that's a big move move red is one that's pretty interesting because uh red
it looks like it's finding a floor over here but i think the hesitation with myself in addition to
the market is that like look guys this is like massive chop okay like i don't like to be shooting
darts in this environment right like i'll rotate a little bit of stuff.
I'll probably like, you know, buy some shares or something,
maybe do like a swing overnight or whatever.
But like, I am not like this,
this is not a swing traders environment right now.
This is, this is massive chop.
Like, look at this.
Like one day you get bullish, you get smacked across the face.
And maybe we go down here.
Maybe we don't, right?
You got bullish up here. You got smacked all the way down here. You got bullish over here, you got smacked,
or you got bearish here, you got what else. This is the definition of chop. And it's starting to
not just be in the queues anymore. This is starting to be in SPY as well. This is starting
to turn into some chop. So we were down as much as 5% on the lows on Sunday or Monday morning.
And now we're down about 3% for the all time highs.
Like it's like very difficult to say where this market is going,
but perhaps Bitcoin did bottom out a little bit.
Bitcoin did base out over here and it's finding a lot of relative strength,
like trying to look at the relative strength of certain sectors in the market.
It looks like it's a lot of it's in
bitcoin and semiconductors that's where like a lot of the strength is if i look at the sectors
it's no longer xle anymore oh wow actually xle is up two percent that will mean that chevron
yeah chevron's up two and a half percent exxon mobil is up two percent eqt is up two and a half
percent hitting wow new all-time highs for eqt that's crazy yeah i it it doesn't appear that the
strength the sectors that exuberate strength are not working right now. And look at XLF. It almost made a new low today.
It almost, not a 52 week low, but it almost made a new local low today.
Thank you, bro. From our close, Amit MIA. I don't think Amit's MIA. He's obviously doing
some pretty important stuff, but I appreciate you guys being here. If anything, I'm glad you
guys are watching the show in lieu of amit's absence
i mean the dude's gonna be back he's always gonna be back he's always gonna be killing it
go ahead and check out that basis points uh podcast that he did recently with steve that
one's pretty cool i didn't get a chance to watch robin hood one but uh the other two really good
dan knives and uh downtown josh brown so go ahead and check that out in case you haven't checked it
out before
um but yeah i mean the health of the markets i mean this is just still trading like near its lows right even healthcare is down this bounced a little bit because of semiconductors
staples pulling back industrials will make you did this is the reason why the rsp is down is
because you had the leaders over here uh industrial, industrial staples, utilities, uh, maybe not
so much energy, real estate, all the defensives are down actually. And they're down along with
the tech, right? That said the tech stuff is down as well. Hands is strong today. Yeah. Hems is
definitely strong today. Um, probably bottomed in my opinion. Yeah. This looks like this is a bottom.
Um, the problem though this is a bottom.
The problem though is that you do have the risk of Novo Nordisk and that has not recovered.
It is not recovered at all. And it's continuing to trade down here. And I think there's some news as far as Novo Nordisk is FDA issues. Actually, let me try to look for a clip over here.
to look for, let me try to look for a clip over here. See if they got something on CNBC
about Nova Nordisk. They probably do. Oh no, that's like a month ago. All right. I'm going
to look for this clip that I did post on Nova Nordisk the other day in regards to the partnership that partnership is confirmed
um they definitely did have partnership all right is this the one
here it is okay so i'm going to go ahead and play this for you guys real quick
our products more affordable is to provide more and more access to them.
We provide that access via the traditional challenge through the PBMs, of course, as
usual, through increasing number of e-health providers and our own Nova Health pharmacy.
So getting hims and hers on board as a major e-health player, of course, gives us hope that access will
further increase and this will be very good for patients as well as the two companies
in between this agreement.
Our aim is by making our products more effective.
What's your framework for how the GLP won?
Yeah, so we did have that commentary from node nordis he obviously
is bullish on the partnership um i think nova nordis needs this partnership um they're in
trouble uh they're definitely in trouble as far as distribution goes um they do distribute their
wagovi shots and also the new pill that they did release. They did release that across other pharma platforms, but I do think they need more distribution channels and they probably need this
partnership more than HIMSS and hers needs it. Obviously this was an issue for HIMSS for quite
some time. It was mostly a dispute that was happening as far as the knockoff with Govi
GLP that HIMSS did release and then take off
the markets through the FDA scrutiny. But I do think that Nova Nordisk needs this partnership
and it has to stay through. And it's actually pretty interesting because this now puts Andrew
Dodum, CEO of HIMSS at the higher ground over here where he's no longer in a corner defending
himself. Now he's from a position of strength and you can see
that through the stock as well stock is well off its lows i think it's up about like 60 from its
lows and in my opinion i think this thing is going to like 30 32 bucks maybe even 40 dollars
uh to the upside when things like you know swing the other way like so you have the pendulum
swinging back and forth at the stock market and it's swung the other way when HIMSS was at $15, and now it's swinging back the other way, and it probably still has room to go up.
I'm probably not going to jump in this trade because it's not necessarily anything that...
It's a lot of volatility for sure, and there's a lot of uncertainty still,
and it probably will come back, but I think the time to capture this trade was probably in the 15s.
And you had more than a few weeks to capture this trade.
And, of course, people are getting excited now after it already made its move.
But now I feel like you might need a little bit of consolidation still
before another leg higher.
The thing just made a 40% move to the upside.
So there still needs to be some consolidation there before it makes its next leg up.
So we will continue to take a look at that one.
This was a clip from Andrew Dodum.
He had an interview.
This was last November.
This was not recently.
This was in November 13, where he was discussing his push to uh basically take over the um take over the market so this was
actually around the time when hymns was trading around um yeah it was trading like around 40 bucks
this came after the the short squeeze tweet that he did release um so let's go ahead and
listen to what he said here in this november interview you won market shapes out
in this November interview.
You won market shapes out.
It's a crazy market.
You know, it's like one of the most important categories
probably in the next few years.
I think you're going to have more and more treatments
on the market very quickly.
Right?
You've got that Sarah deal with Pfizer and Novo
that have been taking place, you know, back and forth.
You've got Kyler that just raised a huge growth fund
that's got a GLP GIP that is
At par or possibly superior to terms of the time you've got Viking coming out probably in 29 or 30
You didn't have we go you know, is that big going generic sometime in 2030 or 31?
Which is gonna bring the price down to you know, it costs, you know
It could probably cost $10 to make one of those vials, right? So I think the next few years the landscape is gonna bring the price down to, you know, it costs, you know, it could probably cost $10 to make one of those volumes,
right?
So I think in the next few years,
the landscape is gonna be incredibly competitive.
I think the prices are gonna come down dramatically.
This is something we're very excited by.
When we first started putting these treatments out,
the prices were $1,500 a month,
but now they're down to about 150.
I would guess in three years from now,
you can be buying, you know, one of the best treatments for 50 bucks a month, but now they're down to about 150. I would guess in three years from now, you can be buying one of the best treatments
for 50 bucks a month.
Yeah, so he's definitely,
he's definitely bullish on the whole pharma stuff.
It's actually pretty interesting
as you mentioned Viking Therapeutics there.
And of course, he met Sarah acquisition from Pfizer.
And that was kind of like an inflection point for Viking Therapeutics. If And of course, the MetSera acquisition from Pfizer. And that was
kind of like an inflection point for Vikings Therapeutics. If you guys are following me,
I was bullish. Vikings Therapeutics gotten around $25 with spreads. And I started scaling out of it
in like the high 30s. So it looks like it's here at about $36. So it could be heading over there.
But I do think that if Vikings Vikings therapeutics becomes a target,
it's probably going to go to 60 bucks. Uh, why am I not involved in this trade? Well,
the trending themes in the market right now are semiconductors, a picture shovel. So I'm going
to focus on there for a little bit. Um, also drones, um, drone battery technology. I'm in
the Ampex as well. Um, pretty crazy cause Ampex, well. Pretty crazy because Ampex is almost a double
for me, which is wild to think because I thought I was late, but I guess I wasn't. That's more of a
drone battery technology company and they're growing like 200%, which is insane. Yeah, they
trade pretty expensive on a price and sales perspective, but you're growing at 200%. That
is definitely nothing to argue about. A little bit more risky on the scale.
It wasn't a massive position when I got in, but now that's a double,
it's starting to become a little bit of a sizable position for me.
But trying to be patient here, trying to continue to observe the markets,
find the next leading theme in the market.
Clearly, it's NeoClouds right now, which is great because I already have in that one.
Fastly is a stock that I invested in when I was around $19. That's more in the edge computing, basically bringing that
edge computing to the local layer, the edge layer. There's also OSS, one-stop shop. I know a lot of
you guys heard about that from Stock Talk as well. I did buy in that one, a very small position.
I would like to size it up actually. That's where i bought in at one percent so uh i might consider sizing this position up but uh still a choppy market and i did recently
enter marvel technology around where it's trading right now um a much bigger position around six
percent but i'm setting a i'm setting a tighter stop loss there because i don't want this thing
that gets you deep right in me um but that's also in the optical play for semiconductors as well.
I did discuss this in a previous podcast a couple of days ago
where I was talking about the whole semiconductor sector
when it comes to optical.
So there is Ethernet, which is copper,
which is using basic electricity to travel through wire
in order to reach an end-to-end uh channel for a lot
of the semiconductor communication the clusters the gpu clusters and so on and um copper is not
uh is not as efficient as light or optical right so light is the fastest form of travel that we
have today um and that certainly does travel faster it's also a lot more efficient because then there's less electricity involved we're talking about a light there um the thing
is that the infrastructure for uh optical connectivity uh needs to be redone for a lot
of infrastructure in data centers and i think we are certainly heading that way when it comes
to it it definitely is a capable trend in the stock market so that's why you see a lot of these
stocks like aii i'm sorry aio um as well as light coherent and all these companies like that's why you see a lot of these stocks like aai i'm sorry aio um as well as light
coherent and all these companies like that's why they're catching a bid because this is like the
leading sector in the semiconductor portion of the market and like these things are really what
helps you outperform your portfolio when you find these trends before they actually happen and you
get in early you just ride the wave on it.
So yeah, yeah, man.
OSS, baby.
What's going on, Matt Sandberg?
How are you?
You know, I do want to bring StockDuck on here, but he is moving a lot and everything.
And he goes in arms a few times.
So I don't want to like, I talk to him all the time in the stocks and spaces.
He's always on there all the time. So, you
know, I talked to him on there and I chat with him on the side as well, but yeah, it'll be cool
to have him sometime on here. The thing is that he already has an earnings edge with, uh, or the,
I forget the name of that. Uh, hold on a second. I forgot the name of that. Uh, the spaces that he
does with Amit here and there. Uh, he does do that one as well. So I don't
want to like saturate how much he's like talking on there, but I would like to tap into his head
as far as like his background and everything goes. Cause I think that's understanding how people
think when they outperform the market is a lot more important than just following their plays.
Right. So teaching a man to fish, he's going to start teaching a man to fish is obviously more important
than just giving a man. I forgot what the statement is. Hold on. Teaching a man to fish quote,
give a man a fish and you feed him for a day, teach a man to fish and you feed him for a lifetime.
Yeah, that's exactly what the quote is. Because if you teach someone how to be a good
stock picker, then that means that they'll be able to do things of their own and be able to
have sustainable portfolio growth over a long period of time. That's what you want to learn
from these people. You don't want to learn what stocks are they doing, I'll just go buy it.
Because if you do that, you're going to be completely dependent on their entries
and exits. And he said many times that you're not going to be able to mirror his performance,
right? So I've taken that along with, you know, listen to Peter Lynch, Warren Buffett,
and all these other legendary investors. And what I've been developing in my own experience
in the stock market is that like, look, back like five, six years ago. Yeah. I mean, you know,
you buy a stock and you hold onto it, but that's not the stock market today. Like today, this is
a stock bakers market. And if you catch these themes before they happen, then there's a lot
of upside. Like you're talking about like multi-baggers when a theme is just getting started.
Like Nebius, for example, when i started buying this thing i started buying it when
it was like 35 bucks as it was going down and april was like the time to buy it and then everyone
started getting in like later on but like that was before that entire neocloud sector got appreciated
you know with your nebius and irans and corey's and so on like corvus probably corvus is the only
popular one out of all of them and they all got decimated last april and then all of a sudden out of nowhere microsoft signs a contract a 19
billion dollar contract we're up to 19 billion dollars with nebius and then today you have the
two billion dollar investment video like this is obviously gaining a lot of traction i don't think
this theme is done i think there's gonna be quite some time now is this theme gonna continue going
straight up from here i don't know you've seen the volatility like nebius was like 150 bucks
just uh just a few months ago and then it's at 111 yeah but it was all the way down to like 70 bucks
like that was the time to add more to nebius so it's like there are pullbacks to buy but then
there's also opportunities to buy before that blow up happens.
The problem is right now is that there's such a narrow leadership in this market that it's not easy to find these themes.
Because as soon as anyone catches a hint of what that theme is, they bid that thing up like crazy.
Like the optics trade is insane right now. The optics trade is wild. How crazy it's just moving.
So anyways, I want to get into something. Maybe I'll do the market close real quick.
Maybe I'll do the market close and I'll sign off after that just for tradition.
sign off after that just for just for uh for tradition um i'm gonna go ahead and play this
clip from tom lee he did he did talk with cnbc yesterday um don't laugh guys tom lee
tom lee has done really good in the past the problem is that he put all of his money
all of his eggs in one basket when he did bmr and that didn't work out for him and that is the last thing people probably remember for him unfortunately but he
has been really good with how he shows his strategy but let's uh let's check out this clip from cmc
he did this at uh future proof we'll see a fun strat the co-founder chief strategist joins us
now here at future proof you're a brave your brave soul wearing a suit and tie here on the beach, but it's how you roll, Tom.
Yeah, I guess that's being a contrarian, right, Scott?
Yeah, well, I'll tell you, you sort of are.
Now, you're not negative on stocks, but you do have a base case that at some point this year we're going to go down 20%,
that we're going to have a 20 percent that we're going to
have a bear market was that's just the first whiff of that um you know our our take is we do expect
that decline to happen when markets don't respond to good news so i think we're in a period where
we had a bear market already in software the mag MAG7 and in crypto. I think that's already taken out a lot of speculation.
So to me, I think our bet would be markets are actually going to lift through the end of the month,
that we're going to actually be positive for March and maybe hit 7,300.
Later in the year is when we think a bear market might show itself.
What about oil? We're watching it so closely.
We're driven by headlines some of
which are apparently erroneous uh i don't know what you what do you do with that yeah i mean it's
very confusing time i think it's very difficult if someone's trying to trade both the headlines or
trade oil but if i look back at the last two days oil's15 higher than it was last week, but the S&P's higher.
So to me, the market actually is handling higher oil prices better.
And we wrote in our note this morning that we think higher oil prices are actually good for the U.S. stock market.
Yeah, see, I think that's going to be a really hard sell for people who are watching this program.
Like, trying almost too hard to paint some bullish scenario.
How in the world are higher oil prices, which then mean even higher gas prices, which mean
higher jet fuel prices, and all sorts of other issues that are related to that input cost
on a whole number of other industries, how is that possibly good for the stock market?
Yeah, part of it's a relative.
You know, one, U.S. is an export of oil, so we net benefit as an economy from higher oil.
The second is other countries are importers, so the U.S. not only looks better, but on
a relative growth basis, it should outperform, which means flows back into the U.S.
And the third is, as we worry about global growth for all the reasons you describe when growth is
scarce people buy growth stocks the US stock market is a growth index so it's
coming out of the rest of the world back in the US so I think it's a rotation
story all right speaking of growth stocks tech has been up for debate
certain parts of it more than others we're gonna get Oracle earnings after
the bell tonight you told me earlier this morning on the stage there on the beats that
you think software's bottomed. Why?
Well, I think software has bottomed because we tend to price in the negative risks early,
which I think has happened, and we've seen the multiples come in. The IGV, which is the
software ETF index, has lost five multiple points. Now the forward PE is 16 times.
To me, you're trading this like a cyclical industry now.
I think out of that universe of 110 stocks, many actually have durable businesses.
I think you're getting paid to buy it here at 16 times.
What about the broadening trade?
Where does that stand?
Now, again, if we're talking about, you make the statement that higher oil prices are actually okay,
or if not better for the stock market, doesn't the broadening trade have an issue with that?
I mean, if you start worrying about the impact of higher oil prices on the economy itself,
how does the broadening trade work?
I think it's a good question.
And we do have to remember there's the stock market and it's not always the economy.
So I think the U.S. economy is going to have some risks for the reasons you described, which is why I think growth stocks start to look better, which is a lot of tech.
And again, the U.S. is a growth index. I'd probably lean towards growth stocks outperform, which is not necessarily a broadening trade.
stocks outperform which is not necessarily a broadening trade let's finish with a quick one
on on bitcoin because i i think it hasn't traded like many had suspected it would at times of
turmoil in the market it wasn't a safe haven play it wasn't a digital gold so to speak i mean gold
was gold and gold traded well so where does Bitcoin go from
here is your confidence in it in any way shaken it's not I mean Bitcoin did basically break on
October 10th because that was the biggest deleveraging event in the history of crypto
when gold went up Bitcoin went down but I think we have gone through a winter where a lot of the speculation
and the leverage is gone. And I think this weekend kind of showed Bitcoin is coming back in vogue as
a store of value because oil prices went up. But over the weekend, crypto prices actually surged
and Bitcoin, as you know, is holding above 70,000 now. Yeah, I agree with him at that. There was a
lot of massive over leverage when it came to crypto and we got that unwinding
of the leverage.
I don't know if this is a crypto winter that people think it is.
I do think that if there is a crypto winter, we will know for sure.
And crypto winter will, would last for more than just a few months.
Crypto winter would last for years, maybe like a year or two at least.
But we are definitely still in the bull market.
Could it just be a deleveraging event?
We're starting to see here on the close and I got something cool to play for you guys.
When the market does close, you guys probably know what it is.
Queues are flat into the close.
Let me go to the 15-minute chart here.
I'm going to take away these indicators.
Yeah, so we're looking like over here that the Qs are basically flat.
IWM is down 25 basis points.
Oh, IGV got greed on the day.
That's interesting.
How are the software stocks doing?
They still look like shite, so still not looking good. We'll see if they bounce back
tomorrow. Service now is at 115 bucks. So good for service now. That's good. It's coming back
a little bit. So we do have a little bit of coming back toward the close. Sox is up about
1% today. Spy is down about 14 basis points yeah
basically flat um i think the market is kind of waiting for some development on this war
situation that's happening here so we will continue to wait and see how much time do we
actually have left until um here we go we got two minutes left until the stock market closes. All right.
So as far as that goes, commodities, crude oil is up 5% today.
Nat gas is up about 5% today.
I wonder how next is doing.
Well, next is up 3%.
VG probably bounced today as well.
Yeah, VG.
Wow, 10% moving VG.
That's good to see.
Copper is down today.
Gold is down today.
Silver is down 4% today.
Interesting.
Yeah, that thing kind of pulled back a little bit there.
Yeah, appreciate you being here, man.
Let's go.
I'm sure he's doing something very busy right now.
Is Path Earnings today?
Wow.
All right.
Let's hope that guy, Jake, comes back.
That'd be very interesting if that guy comes back from the dead because this stock took a pounding.
This stock definitely took a pounding for quite some time.
All right.
Got one minute left for the stock market closing.
Yeah, I remember this thing had their earnings this is a wild move i should have sold
here i didn't i ended up selling like around 15 bucks unfortunately but i probably will not get
back in this one um i very likely will not get back in and you know if i if it goes up congratulations
to jake and anyone who's holding but i do believe that they report earnings today. We've got 55 seconds until the stock market closes.
And I want to share this screen real quick.
Just take a look at some earnings here.
We've got 45 seconds.
Yeah, so we have UiPath reporting earnings, Bumble, OPTT. Ooh, this is that drone company or the submarine company.
Petco reports. Petco is still public? Wow. Yeah, not really a whole lot. All right,
25 seconds till the stock market close. Of course, for tradition, I will do the bell ringing,
but not me personally. I'm going to be your boy, Amit, doing the bell ringing, but not me personally.
I'm going to be your boy, Amit,
doing the bell ringing for you.
We've got about 12 seconds left over here.
The stock market closes,
and I will commemorate it right now.
All right.
Tuesday, March 10th, 4 p.m.
Thank you, everybody, for being here.
The stock market is now closed all right yep so for tradition of course um wasn't that
bell supposed to be quieter maybe you switch the bell back. I missed the last few market closes.
But yeah, let's take a look at some of these earnings over here. I'm going to open up the chart for the earnings. Let's see what's happening here. I'm only going to be here for like about 15
minutes. Not going to be here for the whole thing. I'm definitely not going to be doing
the... Oh, wow. Oracle closed up 10% today. Nice. AOI. All right. Service now. So we have path.
OPTT, but I think this is, oh no, that's not OTC. Okay. You'll be able to see that.
That's a wild move, man. This thing is like an $84 million market cap. Like,
holy cow. Good luck if you're playing this one because you can get the rug pulled from underneath you.
This is just super risky being in this one.
I mean, you know, hopefully it turns out well for you guys.
Whoa, queues are down 10 basis points after hours.
Did something happen?
No, there's a bunch of after hours action.
Nothing really happened here.
So we have path reporting after hours.
What else is on my list?
Bumble, BMBL.
Anyone shorting Bumble?
Is anyone here shorting Bumble?
Stitch Fix.
Stitch Fix is still public.
How are these companies still around?
I don't even know when any of these companies are, to be honest.
These are a lot of companies I've never even heard of.
Dude, what?
What is this?
I was just looking at the avatar for a company here.
ODC?
They're reporting earnings today.
I wanna show you guys.
What is, why does Earnings Hub have this as ODC?
Like, what is this i'll go i'll go to the calendar real quick
what guys what is this
i can't zoom in where is odc no that's tuesday i can't zoom out ah i'm trying to show you guys this symbol
over here like like what is this guys their company logo or at least on earnings up is like
a dude tripping on oil and apparently they're reporting earnings today so we'll see how they do
i'm able to give a little bit of a bid off that one maybe the stock is going to slip i don't know what they're trying to say there but that'd be pretty
interesting all right so let me bring up the charts again over here we got 433 people over
here thank you for watching guys if you're on the twitter of course go ahead and check us out
in the youtube channel wolf financial 89 people on there, 344 on
my channel.
Appreciate you guys being here.
Yeah, I don't understand why they have that logo on there.
It's very odd.
Oh no, I was trying to see Nebius.
Nebius closed at 112.
Wow, that's crazy.
FEIM reported down 10%. electronic telecommunications company.
Mark cap is less than a billion. That's a, that's a small cap,
a micro cap, actually interesting. The path report now patent and report yet.
At least I don't see it in the after hours over here, but they got,
they got quite a bit into the close. Holy cow. In the last hour,
they rallied like 5%.
Oh, they're already out?
There you go.
Up about 1% after hours.
Let's see if I can find the numbers here.
I don't have the numbers yet on my side.
Let's see if we got some path numbers on here.
There's someone who's going to be doing this stream. It's definitely going to be Jake.
Dude lost $8 million in a matter of a few months. Hopefully, I don't like to wish bad upon people.
I hope he makes that money back because that that that would be like
really cool if he earned it all right so path earnings revenue came in at 467.4 million dollars 10 growth year over year aor 1.85 billion dollars non-gap operating income 142 million dollars
30 non-gap in non-gap ebit margin or adjusted EBIT margin gap profitability still net retention 107%.
Nice. That's good stuff right there. Let's see how that stock performs. Oh, wow. Petco is up 10%
after hours. Let's see what wolf wolf. Um, I don't see any numbers for Petco yet, but that thing is What? Woof. Woof.
I don't see any numbers for Petco yet, but that thing is ripping after hours.
Bumble is up 10% after hours as well.
Path is basically flat after hours.
We still need to see what's going to happen with that one.
Woof.
Do I have any numbers?
Woof.
All right. Wolf. I got the wolf numbers.
I got the Petco numbers. Net sales, $1.5 billion decreased 2.4% year over year. Dude,
Petco makes $1.5 billion in a quarter? What in the world? Now that,
I did not know. I did not know Petco was making that much money.
Their market cap is $680 million and they made $1.5 billion last quarter? No.
No way.
Net sales for the whole year was $6 billion.
Flat, you're a $6 billion company revenue and you're less than a billion dollars.
Am I missing something here?
Come on.
Cash grew
91 million to 256 million after voluntarily paying down 95. Oh, they paid down their debt profile.
I wonder if Chris Patel is looking at this one. Free cashflow, $187 million to a hundred increase
of $137 million. A lot of free cashflow went up. All right. Fiscal year 2026 outlook for Petco
flat 1.5% year-over-year growth.
Okay, so they're really growing next year.
That's good.
They're closing 15 to 20 stores, so they're decreasing their expenses.
Adjusted EBITDA, $415 to $430 million.
Petco is up 16% after hours.
Q1 outlook expected a drop 1% year over year.
92 to 94 million dollars adjusted EBITDA.
Wild.
Who would have thought Petco was a place to be?
It's crazy.
All right.
Bumble up 13%.
Is this the one Hamid is in?
is this the one hamid is in
i'm gonna take a look at hamid's fiscally since he shares it for free
netscope reported earnings today too i did not know about that ntsk net scope is down 14 interesting
Netscope is down 14%.
Interesting.
Wow.
Petco is up 20%.
Good Lord, guys.
Who would have ever thought Petco was a place to be today?
Pets.
I don't see bumble on here
all right so bumble reported earnings oh wow they're up 18 guys this is like the opposite
of what i thought it was going to be you have basically your software and over here flat and
down after hours and you have petco and bumble ripping up almost 20 both of them
bumble just reported q4 earnings 224 million dollars versus 221 million dollars estimate
eps came in at minus four cents four dollars not minus four cents net income minus 600 million
Net income minus $600 million.
So they lost more money than their market cap is worth.
Adjusted EBITDA $71 million.
Next quarter, they expect
sequential revenue shrinking.
I don't know why this stock is up after hours.
They beat the estimates,
but this does not look like it's a
good earnings battle maybe Wall Street was bearish this company and now they're
not so they're diving into it 320 million dollar market cap all right guys I need
to confirm if this market cap is actually right I'm gonna confirm my end
over here yeah they're 420 million dollar market cap what about wolf
500 million dollar market cap 650 million dude these are like
very small companies apparently and petco is making six billion dollars this year
crazy who would have guessed these are the places to be this year
oh look at that path made to move four percent up nice cry extract of
perplexity partner deliver enhance security for comet enterprise oh that's interesting news
let's see here wow okay path is up five percent i hope jakey pooh makes his money back
let's see here wow okay path is up five percent i hope jakey poo makes his money back
hopefully he makes his money back all right so i'm just gonna check out something real quick
here on the side wow getting some nice after hours move on a path right here it's at almost 13 bucks
now all right so that is an interesting close giving a little bit back there
net scope is now down 12 wow net scope is down a lot what are they
net scope revenue came in at 188 to 190 million190 million. They missed, no, they beat EPS and they beat the top line growth,
but maybe it's their outlook.
Looks like it might've been their outlook because next quarter,
they're going to lose more money.
That's probably it, down almost 20%. That's money. Yeah, that's probably it. Down almost 20%.
That's crazy.
Well, let's see if these gains hold.
I hope some of you guys have owned some Bumble
or owned some Petco.
Like, good Lord.
Jake is that dude who had like a $10 million bet on PATH.
I don't know if you saw.
Let me see if I can bring up his Twitter.
Oh, he's actually live right now. You know what? I'd like to talk to that guy.
See how he's feeling. I mean, he obviously is still bullish. Uh, this is the guy and then this is his, uh, his, his, his tweet that he had.
Oh, he didn't quote tweet it recently,
where he basically showed how much he's down.
He had like a tweet where it was like his account was down like 80% in the last few months.
And that's like $8 million.
It's crazy.
I don't know how someone can stomach that.
I mean, kudos to him if he can stump that.
And again, I don't like to talk crap about people, guys.
So you're not going to get any shite talking in this channel.
You know, I like to look at the positive side of things,
look at the positive side of people, be optimistic for people.
I don't think anyone deserves to be put down because of a decision that they made,
because we've all made bad decisions in life. And this one, obviously, he was not happy about.
Oh, he actually got green on his path position over here. But where was that? I'm trying to
look for that tweet over here where he like shows a screenshot
of being down. Yeah. This is the one. Yeah. 73% down.
It's crazy. He was down like $8 million.
Brutal, but a path is flat after hours.
So we'll see if that one comes back.
Um, as well, you know, if I recall, um, he manages money for people. Uh, so,
and he had a lot of leverage on, he had a lot of margin on, he didn't play options,
but he had a lot of margin on. So, um, he, he's made a lot of money off lemonade. Um,
I actually was outsourcing some of my research to him when I started looking to
lemonade and then I looked into it and I got bullish into lemonade.
I'm no longer in lemonade anymore.
Um, I got out at 75 bucks, but I got into that thing like sub $30, but yeah, no, that,
that was a different time just a couple of weeks ago when the market was bullish, all
these, all these, uh, ai stocks and stuff all these growth
stocks but now it's a different market so glad i got out of that one but um he is very bullish on
path path is up two percent right now um so it is coming back pretty volatile stock someone said
over there 25 short float so yeah that that's thoughts on quantum longs.
QPUX.
Oh, I got to bounce in one minute, guys.
So I'm going to close this out soon.
No, I have no thoughts on quantum.
I'm cool with quantum.
I don't think it's time yet.
All right, guys.
So thank you for watching this one.
Really appreciate you guys being here.
All 400 plus you.
Really appreciate you guys.
Again, always you the news
every single day uh i start streaming around 2 45 p.m uh hopefully omit's back tomorrow uh next
week i think he might be at gtc so i'm probably do a few market closes next week so it'll be very
interesting to do um maybe the market open uh that'll be quite early for me maybe 5 30 a.m but guys really appreciate you guys tuning in here um sponsor this video is public.com uh go ahead and check out public.com the tweet is in
uh or the the post or the promo code is in the uh in the description there if you guys want to check
that out uh by all means check it out if you want to if not all good but i really appreciate you
guys tuning in thanks for coming
and uh hopefully uh we get some good news about this war ending soon because uh
it's straining a little bit in the economy and um i don't want to get political or anything but you
know there's a lot of people who are dying out there that don't want to be involved in the war
unfortunately so prayers out there to people who are dying on both sides and uh salute to
all those soldiers out there right thank you
