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Oil $110, Stocks Crashing, BTC $66K | Market Check
Recorded: March 30, 2026 Duration: 1:25:25Space Recording
Full Transcription
Good morning, everybody, and welcome to today's episode of Market Check brought to you by BB.
There is no second best live YouTube stream to talk about the markets.
Welcome back, guys.
Happy Monday.
Hope everybody had a great weekend.
Welcome to the final Market Check of Q1.
Kind of hard to believe when I say it out loud.
We are March already, 2026.
Rest assured, we're going to be recapping.
Obviously, it didn't kind of happen this morning.
Probably, I mean, probably.
I talked about, oh gosh, did my...
You're rugging really badly.
So Tommy appears to be frozen mid intro prometheus can we just
confirm you can hear me yeah i can hear you i think it's a stream yard thing i just got kicked
so you got kicked okay so you got kicked and tommy is getting rugged live right now um that's not a
good sign that's that's we're off to a really, really rough start right now. But we're going to see we can make a recovery from here.
Tommy is completely and utterly frozen.
But we are.
So hopefully, let's just see the audience count real quick.
Okay, we're live.
No one's dropping off too much yet.
Okay, we'll see what happens.
We're going to run it and hopefully we find our stride. But yeah, guys, really interesting day in the markets. Still nothing is happening.
We're just kind of chopping and ping-ponging and that's a real shame. But this does sort of feel
like to me, the type of price action that you get when you get close to the end of a range where it gets
particularly scammy where it gets extra choppy where you see these crazy stop-loss hunts like
what happened last night right uh i think it was like an hour before the daily candle closed we
saw bitcoin rug like two or three k per coin and then immediately scam back up to actually
higher than the point of the sell-off so we're starting to see an escalation in the degrees of
and tommy's out now into the degrees of the scam which to me always feels like we're getting close
to the end of a range not oh we're gonna we're going to just keep ranging, but just up the scamminess.
Usually that means people are getting impatient,
they're positioning a little bit more aggressively,
and typically that can lead to a break of value.
Stocks continuing to sell off a bit, relatively flat on the day.
I was talking to our Discord community this morning about stuff like Tesla,
which hasn't
really sold off that aggressively yet compared to something like microsoft which is already down
over 35 percent we will see what happens a lot to discuss looks like we have tommy back glad to see
you uh you back tommy that was a that was an all-time rugging that was i. The Matrix is attacking me, it seems. They were.
But yeah, I kind of took over the intro-ish.
I was like, well, he's gone.
I guess I'll just kind of yap and see what happens.
But did you want to pick it back up a little bit,
or should we just kind of?
I mean, I can pick it back up a little bit.
I don't know if you've asked them to hit the like button yet. No, I haven't. it back up a little bit or should we just kind of i mean i can pick it back up a little bit i
i don't know if you asked them like button yet but no i haven't but because you know they won't
so why you know what that's not a good reason to not ask maybe they should maybe they should do it
can you guys do it just once just just just a little smidgen know how we feel about the like button god i'm rugged
i think yeah i think he's aladdin right now it's over man oh no it's just
oh well Oh, well.
So Tommy's a strategic investor, but not in a good computer.
I always have to laugh that you guys live in a first world country,
but have an internet connection, like in Iran or something.
They probably have better in iran man
i think tommy's uh a different case than most you know i don't know tell me about it
i will say going to south kore I mean, the internet there is incredible.
Incredible.
Great internet.
You guys see me now?
Yeah, we can see you now.
Okay.
Who can share that screen today?
I got it.
Prometheus, our man.
I got it.
He has got it.
Voila.
Thank you, sir. Yeah, what a rugging last night early this morning this was
i mean goodness gracious or last night that's the most blatant manipulation candle i've seen in a
while yeah that was crazy literally an hour before the daily close weekly close
you wrecked the past 56 hourly candles in a single one to the downside only to reverse it
after the most blatant manipulation in a long time
i think i'm good now. They are not confessing.
They are bragging.
They're bragging.
Yeah, that was pretty bad.
And I don't know if you heard me say this, if you were in here or not, Jack,
because I feel like that's the kind of price action you get before we stop chopping.
Like, the scamminess is escalating yeah i feel
like historically what i've noticed is like when you start to get when they up the scam it means
we're about to like break value finally yeah i mean it makes sense first of all i think people
have a fatigue from all the news that we've been getting for the past 14 days.
And second, this range has now, you know, it's on its 52nd day since the low.
If we look at the prior one that lasted 69 days, so we really have, like, realistically, we only have 17 days left of this range.
But realistically, we only have 17 days left of this range.
Maybe sooner, obviously, but I don't think this range will last longer than the prior
one.
Yeah, the only range I can point to that's lasted way longer is like there was that eth range um i know we're on bitcoin right now
it was an eth range that lasted like three months like 20 20 24. you mean after the sell-off
it was a sell-off yes so it was like a bottoming range right so like
off yes so it was like a bottoming range right so like if we last longer in this range it was
i'll give you the dates it was it was after the august 5th sell-off so august 5th until like How long have we been in this range, Prometheus? 52 days.
Yeah.
Measuring up from the low.
Yeah.
Yeah, 52 days.
What was the previous one?
Nice.
Depending where you...
Have you guys seen the movie Goon?
Oh, yeah, I have.
That's the one with Stifler in it, right?
Yeah, he's the hockey player.
He's like a...
Yeah, the hockey player, yeah.
I love that.
Yeah, and they're like,
so what number do you want?
And his friend is in the stands
and he's like,
pick the number 69.
It's hilarious.
Hilarious movie.
I love it.
I love the vibe.
All right, Barometheus, talk to us.
What are you working on here?
I don't know.
I just have a hard time looking at this Bitcoin structure
and thinking there's a bottom, to be honest.
I mean, if we're talking about like asymmetry on the higher time frame, we've got three drives.
You know, you can maybe say four.
Let's see here.
Could maybe say four drives to the upside, like through the bull market.
Like you got one, two, three, right?
And I mean, you could maybe say this is three and then that's four
however you want to look at it i'm just kind of looking at it from like an asymmetry standpoint
and if you know you were to ask me just from structural perspective i mean do i want to be
shorting anything here do i want to be long anything here i'm i'm kind of more so leaning to hands off, you know, I haven't done as much granular, you know, TA as
I would like to feel confident from a, you know, directionality standpoint, at least within this
range, but from a higher timeframe perspective, you know, I point this, I point this out quite a
bit, you know, but market makers, they can't, market makers cannot hide their footprints.
market makers, they can't market makers cannot hide their footprints. You know, they have to pass
passively get in to the market. And they have to passively get out of the market. You know,
that's just, they have too much size, like, that's just, they literally have to. You know,
and if we look at this from kind of an historical perspective, you know, if I were looking at
Bitcoin, you know, through the bull market right um we were
systematically leaving the highs and the reason for that is they want to leave liquidity trails
why do they want to do that it's because they want to use less capital to move the market
in the direction they please and it's very obvious within this range that we're going to be going
higher why is that because you're systematically taking out the lows. You can see these long wicks to the downside. What are the market makers doing? They're setting limits
and they're getting bids filled. And once they get fat and happy, they then start pushing price
to the upside and all the retail liquidations, these people that were shorting the market then
have to buy in, which systematically pushes the price higher and higher and higher until you finally get the breakout and we saw this time and time
and time again right where same thing here you saw kind of the accumulation of the lows the long
wicks leaving the highs that we what do we have then thereafter was the same thing right you had
accumulation where did you come up into your highs makes sense that after you know we accumulated we came
back up into the highs and you need to create more momentum um you know to push price back above
you know to significant new highs so what do we do same thing you leave the highs and you're taking
out the lows you're getting you know passive more passive bids filled in the market,
then you liquidate all the shorts on the other side. Now, what do we see at the highs of the
market or the top? It was the complete opposite, right? Are you systematically taking out the
highs? Everybody's getting gigalong here. What are market makers doing? They're passively putting
limits, getting their asks filled, leaving the lows. And then
what do they do? They just rug everybody. And they get out of the market. Because if you remember
when we were at 125K, what did everybody think? We're going to 170. We're going to 225. Yada,
yada, yada. Everybody's buying. Everybody's longing. This is a breakout. This is new highs,
yada, yada, yadaada and they just unload their positions into
this tremendous amount of volume that's coming in at the highs right they're selling everything
they accumulated here they're selling everything they accumulated here and then what do we see
thereafter after you saw the big sell-off it's the same thing you know you're leaving all the
lows systematic liquidity right this allows the market to move fast and aggressive in the direction
they please you're taking out the highs, they're putting limits, putting limits, putting limits,
getting all their asks filled until they get fat and happy. What do they do? What do they do then
thereafter, right? They start to allow the market to trickle back down, which starts to trigger
the, you know, retail participants liquidations, forcing them to close out their longs and they
become sellers in the market. You then get the violent move to the downside. And what do we have
now? Right. I mean, just like untapped lows, untapped lows. Right. And what are we seeing?
We're systematically taking out the highs. You know, you're deviating the highs of the range
or entering back down within the range. You know, you've had two drives down. If we're
looking at it from a symmetrical standpoint, you've had, you had three drives to the upside,
you know, arguably four just looking at the structure. And from a symmetry standpoint,
you know, I believe that there's probably at least one more leg down. I don't think it's
going to be as, as aggressive as the past two. Why do I say that? Because when you get towards
the tail end of, you know, a, you know, a high timeframe directional move, whether that's the upside or the downside,
once you get to the end of it, you know, generally speaking, the magnitude of those moves become less
and less, right? We had, you know, a range down here, big breakout to the upside, right? We went
from 30k to 72. You then went from, you know, you then created a range and you went from 30k to 72 you then went from you know you then created a range and you
went from 72 up to 106 right then you kind of re-accumulated here and you went from what like
90 to 125 the move became less and less and less from the low to the high um and it would be the
same to the downside right the first significant move down was extremely violent, right? We went from 125 all the way down to 80K.
The next move, we went from 98 down to 60. And I probably think this next move is going to end us
somewhere around like the low 50s would be my guess. Somewhere around that region, you know,
it makes sense with the high timeframe value that we created down here, come down into the kind of
like this value, the low of this value that we created over here, come down into the kind of like this
value, the low of this value that we created over the summer of 24. It would line up from a symmetry
standpoint and line up from a structure standpoint. That's kind of what I'm looking at.
And you're going to get down into like the low 50s and everybody's going to think that crypto's
just dead asset, yada, yada, yada, underperformed, everybody's going to blow up, yada, yada, yada, underperformed, everything, everybody's going to blow up, yada, yada, yada. And that's probably going to be a really good signal to start buying
some things. But I don't want to be a buyer until I see Bitcoin bottomed and I don't see Bitcoin
being bottomed here. I'd say the only thing I might disagree with you on is I kind of think
that if we break down here, we're going to like 35 to 38k i don't know if i really see like
a high time frame bottom occurring at like 50 i think it's going to be either like here
or minus 70 from the all-time high
yeah i mean i will say my first region that i'm watching for, the reason why I said 52K is now be kind of like my first region to watch for is just based off of, you know, all this, the value that yearly vwap uh you know clouds or standard deviation
low kind of at like 52 and change i would kind of watch for that you know i look at this this is
you know a very very very strong demand region um right here which is kind of what i'm watching for
and then yeah i mean if you if you lose like 50 52 to 50 um you're probably going to be
encroaching uh then thereafter on this price action which would make sense right and then
backfilling down to like this inefficiency and probably doing some form of like retest at 30
so it's kind of what i'm looking at
he came back as proper barmeteus
i love barmeteus man i do it's it's good it's uh it's a fun time it's a it's a fun time when
the market's going down but i think that like you know just from a psychological perspective, and you have to be very careful doing this,
but I think from a psychological perspective,
if you want to wish the death on the crypto asset class,
go ahead, be my guest.
But from the mindset and psychological perspective,
we've come down 46 what like 46 percent at the lows it was like 50 percent and you'd think that for the most part the meat of
the move is probably over with um and i hate being in the mindset that oh something's down 70 percent
it can't go down you know another 90 percent I think it's a very dangerous mindset to be in.
But I want to be cognizant, at least from a timing, you know, a timing perspective that,
you know, I should be looking or being, you know, at this point, more looking for opportunistic buys within the market.
I don't think that at this point, wishing death upon
this asset class is from a probability perspective, the right way to be approaching this market.
I think that you could, how I'm looking at it is I think that there's short opportunities probably
going into the middle of this year, if not the end of this year. And then I do think that there's
going to be good buying opportunities. And a lot of people too, we're thinking on the shoulder, you know, everybody's looking at
this as a shoulder in relation to 22, you know, it's too obvious, it's too obvious. Well, what
happened? Right. You know, everybody's looking at this consolidation right now in relation to
May of 22. It's too obvious. It's too obvious, right?
You know, what's probably going to happen, you know? And then I mentioned it. Typically,
what you see in, you know, the high timeframe bottom formations is a low volatility environment,
you know? And I'm not talking like what we're seeing within this range what we saw
within the range back in december is not a low volatility environment um i'm talking about
complete vol suppression right where you see vol pinned and this is where you see the big whales
the big players come in and you know you're seeing it here or excuse me you're seeing it here before
ftx blew up.
But you see complete vol suppression.
And what is this?
This is the whales.
This is the big players sitting on the bid, right?
And they're saying, hey, you guys can sell into us as much as you want.
We're going to pin price here.
And nobody else wants to buy.
Nobody else wants to buy.
And you saw the same thing, you know, the lows back in 2018, complete vol suppression.
And this is indication that you have big, big, big players.
And if you look at this from a volume profile perspective,
which we can zoom out here, right?
Zoom out, let's put a volume profile on here.
Where is the POC at?
The POC is smack dab at the lows.
Why is that? It's because the big players
are sitting there with the limits and they're saying, hey, sell into us as much as you want.
We're going to sit here and we're going to get, we're going to buy as much as we want.
And then once we got our bags filled, we're going to be nice and happy, you know, and it's the exact
same thing back here, right? Where's the POC? You you know it's at the low why is it at the low
it's because they're just sitting on the bid and they're saying hey sell into us sell into us
we're gonna pin price here we're not we're not going to actively push price higher we're gonna
passively absorb um and that's kind of what i'm looking for for high time frame bottom i don't
think that this is indication um that the high time you have the same poc right now promete is
right there let's see here
this well if you if you take it from the high but yeah like you can use the current
Yeah, like you can use the current range or take it from the high and you have the POC
rate or take it from the high and you have the poc at the current range too
at the current range too.
Hmm, my POC is 87.
Check the Binance chart.
Let's see if it's any different.
Yeah, I was checking the Binance chart.
Because Binance is a lot more volume than Coinbase.
I think both are important, but look at the Binance chart.
I think you need to use the USDT one.
USDT?
Yeah. TryT one. USDT? Yeah.
Try that one.
Isn't the Bitcoin USD pair, at least the Binance US exchange, that's the one that wicked to like 8k, right?
Yeah, I think you're right.
I will not forget that day.
Not sure why. I mean, it's not like anything happened, but I just randomly remember that.
No, no, something did happen.
Binance gave you your target for the bear market low.
Yeah, that's very fair.
But they've also wicked to like 157, no?
Oh, did they?
Yeah.
It goes both ways.
They give us many targets.
October 10th gave us a nice target for shorts, right?
To backfill the wicks.
So we're just going to fluctuate between 157 till 8K.
Yeah, we need to fill the wicks first yeah let me show you this yeah does this
not look eerily similar right this volume profile setup
to this region it was in well first of all i don't think so and second it's entirely different
context because like uh the middle of the range was happening above the floor of 30k in 2022 versus right now you're trading below the
April lows of 25 plus you're trading in the literally by like 10 times fold biggest demand
in Bitcoin's history.
So I just find it crazy that people think that we can drop below that and below the cost of production like it's a forex chart.
And I don't think that's the case.
Yeah, I mean, if I see the volatility suppression um you know i'm i'm game
i just i think it's going to be to the low is going to take time uh most importantly that's
what i'd want to see you know if we do bottom out here right i want to see more time i don't
think that there's been enough time for this to be a high time frame low. It also, like I agree,
and this can totally happen as of right now still,
what you have drawn.
But we also have to keep in mind
that this doesn't have to be playing out at all
like a typical bear market,
because again, I don't find it to be.
Plus lots of things have changed.
That would be much longer discussion but uh yeah again
what you have drawn the sweep of 60k is still possible but it's definitely not required and
i think there are plenty of examples in bitcoin and east history where we've bottomed on literally lows looking like this. And again, ETH prior bear market is a prime example of this.
I will say I think ETH looks a lot worse than Bitcoin here from a derivative standpoint.
A lot of the bond down here has been futures based rather than spot.
I have a tough time with ETH.
I really do. Binding is much more positive on ETH down here than it is for Bitcoin.
Yeah, I have a really tough time with ETH.
I don't know.
I can't necessarily put my finger on it. Maybe it's because
the ETH Foundation is literally just
twopping out of their bags, and I don't know
what to make of that.
They're selling to Tom Lee,
bro.
They are selling to willing market
participants at a fair price.
I was waiting. Who's going to say that?
I see no issue
with this.
Somebody said
oil is spiking.
I'm just looking at it. It's not
spiking, though.
It's coordinated
in the comments.
They're trying to manipulate the price on market check.
I will say one thing that I am watching for,
and I went over this this morning in our Discord,
is just like it's the simplest form of analysis,
but it can be so effective
you can just look up like historical pullbacks for the indexes what percentage during like
a high vol environment where everything is kind of correcting together what is the NASDAQ typically correct percentage-wise from high to low? What about the S&P? What about the Russell? What about individuals like a Microsoft or a Tesla, right?
bottom.
And Prometheus, I actually have an
indicator published. Maybe you could pull it up.
It's called Percentage Retrace.
And it'd be the...
Yes, that one.
So just zoom out a bit.
Zoom out a bit there.
You can go to the daily. It would probably be good.
Weekly's probably a lot.
Especially for... I mean, we could, I guess we could look at like
the great financial crisis, but like going back to 2013, you know,
2010 even. It's like
we typically will bottom around like, you know, 20 to
30% for the indexes, starting in like after
the great financial crisis, right?
So in like the last decade and a half, we've typically pulled back to that minus 20 to
minus 30% level.
QQQ slightly more.
QQQ slightly more.
And it's just a really simple form of analysis, right?
Maybe just zoom in so we're not looking at like the dot-com crash.
There you go.
That's like kind of the window we need, like more recent price action.
Like I'm not going to go back and look at like Bitcoin's 2012 cycle.
That's not really going to help me.
Like things are very different. But to me, it's like, where have we bottomed in the past?
Minus 20 to minus 25% for the NASDAQ. Usually, we get some responses around these levels,
unless we're in a prolonged bear market. So that's just kind of my, you know,
I wouldn't even call it a concern.
It's just like my reason for patience is like,
we just typically don't put in like really solid concrete bottoms
around this pullback level.
But anything's possible, right?
And by the way, this indicator is like,
I published it open source for free.
You can go and look at it on your trading view if you want.
And it's just a really useful tool for figuring out like,
okay, where do things typically bottom?
It doesn't seem like we've really even pulled back that much.
We haven't.
And I've never seen a top that looks like this.
I mean, that thing looks crazy.
It's like almost too perfect.
Yeah, I mean, it does look like a textbook top.
Well, hang on now.
I mean, I've never even seen a top that looks that rounded before.
It is textbook,
but it's almost like two textbook. Like,
normally you get some chop and like some
retests. I'm like, this thing is like a
perfect C. I've never seen
anything like it. In all
my years of studying
doomsday fractals with Tommy, I have
never seen one this perfect before.
Ever.
It's definitely the smoothest
rounding top.
They haven't even pressured any of the highs, man.
Every candle is lower
than the last one. It doesn't breach
the previous high.
That's crazy.
No one's been pressured once
this whole time.
It was systematic unwind at 7,000.
Once you got close to the 7,000 level, you just saw all the dealers just unwind their positions.
Yeah.
You know, we get this Theta crush.
That's really kind of where they've been um hurting bears over the last few months
right I mean you mentioned it Max they haven't really run any highs per se but they have been
crushing vol and I still think that at the most basic level that's still kind of all you need to
trade for this current market is like all right what is volatility doing and volatility continues
to just kind of slow grind higher and And I say this all the time,
volatility is directly tied to market liquidity. So when market liquidity is declining,
we typically do see volatility continue to rise. And why VIXPiration, specifically this quarterly
VIXPiration and OpEx about a week or two weeks ago was so important was because most of the
underlying bid that we've
seen under equities for the last few months has been, it's basically been just people shorting
volatility or buying structured products that inherently short volatility. And now that that
bid has left the market, I mean, we're seeing the way that individuals have traded since then,
right? Like you mentioned Microsoft at the beginning of the show.
What is it down like 35% from the highs?
Still, you know, really struggling to catch a bid.
Made new lows.
Meta obviously puked 10 or 15% last week.
And just, you know, like all of these individual names throughout the market, like NVIDIA today has bounced, but it's a pretty anemic bounce.
There's not like that,
that supportive blows in the same way that we've had. And so now we're just getting like
this slow drip occurring on all of these individual names across the market.
And I do think that it's going to find its way into the index level at some point,
more meaningful way than it has already.
But I feel the same way about Bitcoin too as it relates to volatility.
I don't want to beat a dead horse,
but I still think you're just kind of trading D-VOL
when we look at the structure of Bitcoin. You need to see D-VOL re-enter a high timeframe downtrend
because right now we have broken out of a high timeframe downtrend
and we're currently in an uptrend.
And volatility has been directly correlated to market downsides.
So if we look at the way D-VOL traded, at least in 2022,
when we started to see that low volatility range that kind of Prometheus was talking about already, you know, D-Vol reentered a downtrend during that range.
We did get, obviously, that last ditch spike from FTX's collapse in November of 2022, but D-Vol had reentered a downtrend.
And that, you know, in hindsight was a pretty big tell
that the market was ready to, at the very least,
not continue to move lower.
Yeah, it's interesting looking at D-Vol.
I mean, it's essentially like completely flipped.
And by that, I mean, like it essentially completely flipped. And by that, I mean it's starting to break out of a multi-year downtrend,
which is a little bit spooky, I will say.
If you overlay Bitcoin underneath that DeVal chart,
you'll see what I mean where,
you'll see what I mean where...
or I guess on the same one, that works too.
But there have been times when,
you know, like you see volatility rising
and Bitcoin appreciating.
And that was a regime that we were in for quite some time.
But now you're seeing like Deval rising and Bitcoin dropping, which is a bit different than what we've seen in the past.
Tommy, have you noticed that as well?
Like Deval's relationship with Bitcoin and like...
It totally flipped.
Yeah.
Like the skew that it moves the 10 10 candles was basically like it was symbolic right not just because of uh you know the crazy wicks that we saw on
altcoins but because it basically like unpinned a multi-year volatility regime.
And vol down, mark it up,
is what you typically see from institutionalized assets,
which is why, you know, in the past, when we got upside on Bitcoin
because the upside was so aggressive,
we would usually see the largest spikes on dvol
when Bitcoin would go up.
But because it's been kind of institutionalized and a lot of the upside this cycle was effectively just selling puts
um you know which which obviously dampens the price of volatility now that we're seeing that
break uh i mean dvol is directly correlated to market downside now um so i need to see that i
really want to see that behavior shift
to become a buyer of Bitcoin and crypto again.
But until it does,
I'm going to be pretty skeptical
that Bitcoin is just going to reenter an uptrend
until that happens.
Yeah, it is completely 180'd.
What Bitcoin volatility now is representing
is the opposite of what it was the past few years so
um you know where it started to started in april of last year interesting
that's yeah i mean that's i've noticed that as well prometheus like that's when you started to
see like that super hyper correlation with the the vol down market up and uh yeah i guess uh i guess
there really wasn't that much more to extract from that part of the uptrend at that point
outside of just kind of selling puts yeah i mean i think a big dampering of this cycle has actually
been ibit um i mean i think it was well i'll say i think it was
an accelerant early on um but very quickly like it's like jet fuel like it is super strong super
quickly um and created a lot of thrust and then i mean burned out and fizzled out very quickly and caused and the ability for people to sell calls against their their crypto became a huge suppressant.
before in any any of the other cycles um that created a lot of systematic sell pressure um
that was just not there before you know and i think uh levinson had talked about it but you're
essentially like when you when you're selling the calls against the coins right the you're
essentially you can sell far more coins, infinitely more coins than you can
actually buy, which is an inherent issue.
Naturally. It's basically the whole crux of the paper Bitcoin issue.
Yeah.
Imagine a world where only spot Bitcoin issue. Yeah. Imagine a world
where only spot Bitcoin
existed
and there was no perpetual futures
or derivatives markets and like Bitcoin
truly just had a supply of
21 million
and there was no paper Bitcoin.
We'd be over a million already.
100% we'd be over a million.
I mean, people would just be scooping supply.
They would never be touching it,
but instead we have to overcomplicate things
with derivatives markets
so bankers have a product to sell.
I mean, it's definitely crippled the market,
like all the games that have been played around it.
And that's why we don't trend the way that we used to.
It's because there's so many layers so many derivative layers now where people are more interested in generating a yield derived from the volatility of this asset rather than
actually owning the asset so you don't love it max what'd you say you don't love yield i don't know man i want the pump you know i want the uh
i just i just missed the like oh yeah bitcoin can easily be up 20 percent on a random day for
no reason you know and just like trend really hard for a week i miss that now it's just
like oh like complex like multiple drive liquidation pattern printing and like the funding on this
exchange is this well this exchange is this and if we like arbitrage the funding we can yield like
three percent apy and oh the order book depth on here is telling me that on the five-second time frame, we should pull back 1%.
I'm like, dude, what happened to crypto?
Bunch of freaks.
Dude, bunch of freaks.
You had to play the liquidity game, brother.
Have you not been playing the liquidation game?
I mean, honestly, I'd rather go golfing and just not be a freak.
It's like, dude, shut up about your like...
This is one thing that actually gets me worked up is just like how destroyed crypto,
like what an empty carcass it is compared to last cycle.
I just miss it. That'scle. I just miss it.
That's all.
I just miss it.
It's like, you know, those movies or shows where they have, like, the hero with his uniform
hanging up in the closet and he won't put it back on.
Yeah.
The city needs you yeah and I mean on like days like today
I look at like hyperliquid
I think hyperliquid for me
is still probably better signal
in the market than most things
what do you make of this chart Prometheus is this like a legit uptrend or is this like a
complex shoulder? Complex shoulder. Complex shoulder. Never heard that term before.
I mean, it really did. I mean, this is the indicator that I use pretty frequently. I mean,
I use for just about everything just to kind of represent value easier or to contextualize value.
I think that it's probably some form of reaccumulation, actually. Believe it or not, I think that hyperliquid probably was oversaturated, especially last year.
You know, everybody talked about hyperliquid it's the next
greatest thing yada yada yada there's only 11 employees jeff is the go jeff have my babies
you know it was you know i mean everybody everybody's talking about it right um yeah
yeah and and i think that what happened last year was probably an oversaturation within the market
or at least for this ticker locally speaking i i actually had a dream about hyper looking because of this i'm at some jeff
in the dream or no yeah jeff um jeff jeff and babies and um yeah nice nice that sounds awesome
yeah and um i think that
well i what i dreamt about hyper liquid and my my dream of hyper liquid was that it was
over uh 150 per hype um and i i kind of took that as like some form of like prophetic
um dream and and you know was telling me that i should probably look to scoop a lot of hype
just as a long-term hold but anyways this week i think this is more so like a re-accumulation
period i think it was oversaturated last year clear high time frame distribution here
and you know it has showed a lot of strength right i? I mean, Hyperliquid bottomed out January 26th and is now up off those lows, 80% where Bitcoin
has gone on to make new lows.
And I think Hyperliquid is what you can take out of that is that, um, it is one of the
first coins ever to do so.
One of the first coins ever to really decouple itself
from Bitcoin in a major way, right?
And we're not talking about some shit coin
that's 10 mil market cap
and some bro just shielded on his Telegram group
and had an exit pump.
Hyperliquid is a big, big, big name.
I think it's like number 14 or 15, um, on the list for market capitalization. And it's a big player and
it's decoupled itself. You know, they continue to make waves. They continue to generate a tremendous
amount of revenue. And because of that, you know, I think that we're in this decoupling, we're in a
form of re reaccumulation, you know, and I think the reaccumulation, unlike what a lot of people are used to, which is like a rounded bottom,
you know, the low volatility regime I was talking about with Bitcoin, but is rather going to enter
into a reaccumulation phase that is an uptrend, right? And that's something that a lot of people
don't recognize is that reaccumulation phases can occur, you know, through these steady uptrends.
is that reaccumulation phases can occur, you know, through these steady uptrends.
And, you know, they're doing a fantastic job.
You know, if I'm looking at it here, I mean, you have high timeframe.
We came perfectly up into our high timeframe resistance being our previous year,
previous quarter VWAP highs, rejected right off of that region.
It makes sense that you probably set some form of higher low here.
I do not think the higher liquid makes another, a lower low,
that being lower than 20.
I do not think that that's in the playbook at this point.
I think that if it was going to have,
if it was going to do that,
it would have already done that,
especially alongside Bitcoin weakness.
So I do not think it makes sense
to be bearish on the strongest name in the sector. It's stronger than
Bitcoin. It's literally stronger than Bitcoin. Decoupling though, that's famous last words.
Famous last words. But like I said, I mean, sure, it could have some form of catch up to the
downside. I mean, locally speaking, yes. But I mean, what I'm looking at is probably some form
of higher low, you know, probably come down into like 30. And I think looking for some buys around the 30 region probably makes sense because I'm expecting it to be, you know, probably rotational and ranging within, you know, 43 to 30. As of right now, if you kind of start breaking below, you know, 29, then you can start talking about the low at 20 getting targeted. But until then,
like it does not make sense to be looking at that, in my, in my opinion. And like I said,
I mean, you can't ignore the strength, you know, I don't want to be like too fancy or try to be
over sophisticated and expecting like, oh, you know, hyper liquid is like, you know, it's yet
to roll over, you know, those are famous last words to, you know, shorting strength and longing weakness
is a terrible, terrible, terrible position to be putting oneself in.
Yeah, I'm just not trading hyperliquid right now.
Yeah, I think it's something you buy and you literally forget about it.
Like, I think you get like 30, you start to get some bids filled you know build
some tranches you know if you start to lose like 29 you may either cut the position or just look
to dca down to like 20 and change like i think you keep it super simple with a ticker like this
and you don't over complicate it yeah hype is definitely on my shopping list if we get a nice little flush.
It's just so decoupled, which I hate saying with Bitcoin.
But I have seen this before for small periods of time where something looks really decoupled.
And, you know, I know Hyperliquid is great tech, right?
That's the difference.
But I have yet to ever see true decoupling last.
I think we're maybe starting to see it,
but I'm just still a little skeptical that like,
if Bitcoin doesn't do much,
and I guess maybe Bitcoin does do much, right? Like maybe, maybe Bitcoin could just start
rallying like crazy and then this will probably make new highs quickly. But, um, I'm just a little
skeptical that you can seek refuge or safe haven in any altcoin regardless of the tech you know because i haven't seen it
before but yeah i don't think it first yeah i agree i don't think you should be like seeking
um like a safe haven or refuge in in coins right now without bitcoin looks um but i think how one should be looking at hyperliquid is like if you believe in this asset
class at all like this is the number one name outside of bitcoin in my opinion to come out of
of crypto at least as of right now like i mean ethereum is you can argue it's failing or not failing i think it's
failing um you know you can talk about solana whether it's failing or not failing
you know you want to talk about revenue you want to talk about like real cash flow
um i mean hyperliquid has made more money than I think any other name outside of, you know, you know, raising capital than any other name.
Is there a price where you would maybe question the idea that it is the only good thing in crypto?
Yeah, I mean, like, I just want to play it level to level.
If I'm being honest, I hate the marrying the bot, bot you know marrying the bag kind of thing at this point after what happened this cycle with
altcoins um but yeah i i would generally just want to play it level to level if i'm being honest like
do i want to buy right here after we just reject it off of like a high time frame resistance
absolutely not um i actually bought a little bit of hyper
liquid and virtuals before i left on my trip as like a a hedge to being primarily in cash and
having some short positions on and then on the plane ride back home uh i ended up exiting
those positions because i was like i'm going to be active again but uh yeah i just like
a view like okay if i want to be long anything like this kind of makes sense and then from a
price perspective i just want to play levels like you just reject off high time frame resistance
it's probably going to cool off a little bit um like i said rotational from between, you know, 42, 43, and 30 roughly, you know, rotate between the value that we've
created up here, you know, set some form of higher low end, looked along this region,
you know, if it doesn't work, it doesn't work. But ultimately speaking, you know, to your point,
Tommy, I think if we lose 20, then this is going to be, you know, Hyperliquid's got some work to do, you know,
and we'll see if it can come out of those depths. But, you know, 20 is a very, very,
very important level, especially as it being the low that it set in at the beginning of the year
and had a very, very, very strong rally off of it when Bitcoin went on to make new lows.
very strong rally off of it when bitcoin went on to make new lows um and if bitcoin's going on to
re-accumulate or put in some form of base after what i believe to be another leg down and hyper
liquid goes on to set a new low um and bitcoin makes like a marginal new low then yeah i mean
there's probably some issues there i am a patient bear when it comes to hyperliquid.
That is kind of my stance.
I feel like if I have to chase it at some point,
I'd rather do it on perks than spot.
Ironically, a ticker that you were talking to me about, Prometheus,
is kind of my blueprint for hype from here which is
pnc it's kind of what pnc did i'm going to keep i'm going to keep beating a dead horse but like
the 2008 analog um for crypto i think is is quite salient and so i'm viewing hype kind of the way that pnc was trading august or september of 2008.
man you think hyperlook was in here yeah i do assuming assuming that my thesis is right on
crypto being in 2008 right i mean i could definitely be wrong on that
regional banks blow up i mean it would be the equivalent of them like what banning all dex
platforms i just uh i think there's a liquidity squeeze coming for markets
still I mean it's just kind of been like
the slow motion train wreck for months
now and I think that it's coming to a head
to the chat's point should we all just
be bidding max bidding Tron
and just walking
away I have to respect the just crazy strength out of Tron and just walking away. I have to respect the
just crazy strength out of Tron.
What is this chart?
I have stopped
trying to make sense of it, to be honest.
I mean, I can tell you what it is.
It's actually very easy
to tell you what that is.
What, crime?
Yeah.
I mean, is this your guys' first day on Poopno Street?
I mean, this is crime.
There is no second best, for the record.
Clearly.
There really isn't.
He has managed to single-handedly weave himself into DeFi, Tether, Bitfinex, Chinese whales,
his own exchange.
He's the GOAT.
What's his exchange name again?
Wobi.
Wobi, that's what it is.
My only explanation is that he has so much stuff on other people that they won't take him down.
He's the Epstein of crypto, man.
He's got pictures of everybody and he's like, you will keep Tron elevated.
You hear me?
Yeah.
And they do it.
Oh, look who's in the comments.
Somebody's lurking.
Big Haggy.
Come on, Big Haggy. Start the show when you're ready.
Remember that guy?
We'd be in the lobby before the show talking,
and then some guy, I can't remember, maybe you're in here.
It's okay, Big Haggy. Start the show whenever you're ready.
Go ahead, Haggy.
So funny.
Oil to 500, VIX
to 1,000.
Oh my.
Wow.
I've seen some VIX predictions.
I've never seen a VIX to 1 to 1000. that shut the market down for
like a year if that happened that would be
vix to 1000 would have to be like uh i just don't even know if that's possible like jesus
I just don't even know if that's possible.
Like a Jesus earring
or aliens
literally
invading, you know, like in
like that
movie with Will Smith or
something.
Oh yeah, what was that?
Independence Day.
Oh man.
Dude, I am legend.
I mean, you want to talk about a tearjerker that's a that movie
so what's even uh more of a tearjerker was the movie with the him and the jellyfish oh god what
was it called well where he will no he like kills himself to donate donate all his organs to these people.
Oh, I got the wrong.
I thought you were going for the animated movie, Shark Tale.
Another TRT character.
Wait, is Shark Tale the Disney one?
Is that the Disney one where he pretends he's the shark slayer or whatever?
Yes.
Yeah, I've seen that movie.
I've definitely seen Shark Tale.
That's an elite movie.
Yeah.
Study Nemo.
When we were in Thailand, we did this excursion on this boat.
And the captain like everybody was
like swimming and the shark starts literally swimming underneath everybody and he goes nemo
pay no mind to the shark beneath your feet yeah he just says nemo
we called him captain Jack Sparrow.
He's just slamming Kratom and whipping a speedboat around the islands.
The Meg tearjerker.
What do you guys think about tesla oh can't show the
buy it under 250
or don't buy it
i think um
spacex ipo is going to wreck this chart.
I think we lost Jackus, and I think we lost Tommy.
Oh, man.
What is going on?
Oh, we got one of them back.
The Matrix is attacking us.
Yeah.
Whoa.
I love that the response to Tucker was just to post the Chiefs record.
They weren't even good enough to get nine wins
oh really
sorry Tuck
now didn't the Chiefs finish like seven and ten
I don't even know I stopped watching
after
I forget what game it was I stopped watching
I watched one game and i was like this is horrible
i think tesla you got thoughts on you're good oh i mean tesla was gonna say i think that
345 has got a hold i mean that's in confluence you know, this kind of order block you got here.
If you lose 345, next spot's going to be 273.
And then, I mean, clearly this is just weak structure right here.
I mean, when have you ever seen a structure like this not get taken?
Like this is like your textbook, like textbook, you know, this is this not get taken like this is like your textbook like textbook you know this is gonna get taken you know woodshed moment yeah it really is woodshed
dude he is screwing over tesla shareholders with that spacex ipo you, yeah, Dev's launching a new coin.
Can you,
can you chart Tesla or Bitcoin against Tesla?
Sure.
I'm so curious.
Do you guys think you like after the SpaceX IPO,
it's probably going to come down pretty good bit.
You think you just play SpaceX is the Elon proxy from here and just forget
about Tesla.
Hmm.
That's a good question.
Because I look at the current valuation of Tesla and I'd like, do I really think this
is going to, how much higher is this going to go in the next few years?
But how much higher is SpaceX going to go if it's IPOing at one and a half trillion?
Yeah, there's no way i don't know but i'm kind of inclined to fade tesla
uh obviously just not just like locally but like i'm kind of asking myself the same thing
on a high time frame too yeah i don't i want i don't want to be a buyer
of an IPO at
1.75 trillion
I don't want to be a buyer there
are you sure?
seems like great value
I want Elon
I want Elon and the boys to dump on me
because I'd like to see
Elon become a trillionaire
I don't really think that Elon's
social capital is like perma-topped
I think it's down-trending
I think it's down-trending
but I have a hard time saying
that it's like top forever
but I also a hard time saying that it's like top forever.
But I also don't want to necessarily be like a Tesla investor.
Come on.
I got rugged again.
No, you're good.
You know, I think that Tesla... So you want a Bitcoin over Tesla or do you want Tesla over Bitcoin?
I want Bitcoin over Tesla from cycle lows.
It's the same thing to me.
I'm more just curious, like if we're bearish Tesla, is there any alpha in looking at this chart saying maybe it's bottom, maybe it's not?
You know, like if we think Tesla is a free short, is Bitcoin a free short?
You know, like Bitcoin a free short?
Do they move together?
Is there any relationship we should be aware of?
Because I think they trade similarly from what I've observed.
I will say, I think that the case for Bitcoin to sell off does largely revolve around,
all right, do these equities look like they're loading a really large move down when that move down comes if it comes that's when bitcoin's going to give you the large leg down unless you think that large leg down is just kind of like a five
percent puke from here on something like tesla i personally have a hard time seeing that.
What is this?
This is a core weave.
We absolutely slaughtered some shorts in this.
Shorted it from up here all the way to down here that's a schizo chart bro it's um it's like a mix of nvidia and bitcoin miners on like crack
i was about to say it kind of looks like the inverted D-Vol.
Yeah, and so, I mean, it's just a garbage company. I'll just leave it at that.
So you're saying that's something you want to be short when the market's going down and not short anymore when it's going to bounce it's
going to destroy your short profits fairly quickly yes absolutely you can catch the trending moves
but they happen very quick and you need to be managing and be willing to get out quick
the nasdaq has flipped red gentlemen
i will say what does this mean for my shitcoins?
Please.
I will say indices across the board are kind of at do or die levels.
All three, being the Nasdaq, S&Pp and the dow are at their previous year
vwap levels which is super important and you lose these um you kind of get that extra that
next 10 move down you're talking about max yeah but prometheus i must i can't help myself i must short vol
i will short vol when we get a blow off in volatility um not before
i uh i've been tracking some accounts on x recently that make shorting volatility their personality
i'm just kind of using that as a barometer well there was like a whole like like category of people that came into the market probably like two or three years ago and they probably stumbled
across like an instagram reel about how you can can just sell vol every day and just make 1%.
And that works for a while until you just get blown out and go to zero immediately.
Thanksgiving turkey.
Yeah.
So I don't know.
I don't know what to make of the structure.
It reminds me a bit of 2022s where it's like we just stay more elevated, you know, and we don't see these huge crushes like we've seen in the past.
But I can't say for certain I think we won't end this like curl down on equities with like a bigger drop.
It feels like it's unresolved.
But if you look at 2022, like we just kind of stayed around these levels like up and
down but we didn't have these major crushes so it's hard to say and you know why too we had that
in 22 is because or i shouldn't say everybody but a good majority of people were expecting
recession and because that a lot of people were long
volatility. And unlike what we had in, you know, August 5th of 24 and April, yeah, late March,
early April of 25, not very many people were long volatility. And you get everybody piled up and,
you know, that short volatility trade like you guys were talking about, you get everybody piled up and you know that short volatility trade like
you guys were talking about you get these big big big big on ones um but then subsequently they
revert super fast right whereas when you get these regimes where most people are you know
at least in 22 where most people were long volatility, expecting recession and, you know, the whole nine, hard landing, whatever.
You get these prolonged, you know, ranges where it takes time
for the certainty to kind of come back into the market.
And I think that's in relation to where we're at now,
where most people are probably long volatility in some, you know,
shape or manner, either that being, you know,
cash is inherently kind of a long volatility trade.
But the VIX structure to me is just showing like there is a lack of faith and trust in the current
administration right now where people are just like, what we saw, interestingly enough,
back with the tariff things was
they had the big tariff announcement right with the billboard and all that and then they said that
they were going to um you know adjust the tariffs or bring them down right and the market the market
popped you know and then they would say oh they're putting the tariffs back on it so we had a little
bit of sell-off but then you know they would taco every time and it would slowly float the market higher.
And what we're seeing now is quite the opposite where we had obviously the strike on Iran, you
know, oil surge massively. And these quote unquote tacos are not floating the market higher. They're
actually doing the opposite effect. And they are forcing the market into the corner of losing trust and faith
in the fact that there's going to be some form of resolution.
I think the one that you're right, Promethe,
is that there are probably a lot of people right now who are long vol.
Particularly, I would assume a lot of that bid on vol is kind of hedging
from who are up substantially from 2022 lows. What they are, the other part of it.
Keep cooking, Tommy. Keep cooking. No, no, no. You don't see anything.
no no no you don't see anything don't don't let me get don't let me distract keep cooking
Don't let me distract. Keep cooking.
i um no um what i think like the the tricky part is right because people are long vol but the
market makers are very very short long tailed puts so we do have this kind of very unique setup for a massive vol blowout should conditions align.
So it could be possible that we just trade like 2022 where vol stays elevated, but you get these crushes spot down, vol down.
But I tend to think that the market makes we're trying to sell these long tail puts are going to get blown out at some point.
So you're so you're saying
they're selling super far out of the money puts yes okay to fund uh i would guess kind of more
like at the money long bowl sort of strategies okay okay so ticker of the week here, Iron.
Death and destruction is going to ensue.
You want to talk about a fragile structure?
My goodness.
Prometheus, there's a very prominent individual who you
really respect and love
who's very bullish on this taker
yeah yeah yeah i mean price is good friend yeah yeah yeah no i mean we had super similar viewpoints
when bitcoin was at you know 95 we had super similar viewpoints when microstrategy was at 200
we had super similar viewpoints when iron was at 45
um you know and unfortunately you know those viewpoints i shouldn't say we had complete opposite viewpoints and um you know my my friend unfortunately he just didn't get it right you know
and uh to his 400 000 followers you know that greatly admire and respect him and build shrines and worship and kiss his feet are finding it out as of right now that, you know, maybe the people that he's calling a kid analyst, in fact, is just a, you know, direct reflection of oneself, you know.
Interesting.
It's interesting. Where's your target for this chart
i mean you lose 32 you know i mean these are the levels i watch same with the other tickers
you know unbiased opinion uh you lose 32 except below that your next spot's going to be 10 bucks
11 bucks and i'm sure if you owned like you know mid to upper eight
figures of this chart like how much would you be down if this if this went to like 11 bucks
i mean you'd be down 60 really yeah and i mean i've seen a lot of people that have put you know
significant portion of their 401ks and retirements into this ticker, expecting
Valhalla and greatness after it already had its parabolic move.
I hate to say it. I hate to say it that unfortunately you will probably get some form of repricing.
I actually don't think that you hate to say it i kind of feel like you like to say it am i
no i i hate to say that people are going to lose money um like i genuinely hope that you know i
wish that people would never lose money um but unfortunately the matter of fact is this is the market you know um and that's just not the case um but what i don't like to see
is you know the um i don't know if it's like a denial or or what you know an acceptance that
hey maybe this is probably going lower and maybe that there is value in looking at charts you know
you in looking at charts you know um squigglies don't count from ethos yeah i guess not um i guess
not you know but you know every prediction that him and i have differed on you know is unfortunately
or i should say fortunately gone in my direction so um you know what that chart looks a lot like
to me is blackstone yeah it looks a lot like was it black suns bl bx bx
yeah it's always funny to me how people will come up with a million different reasons why
something should trade a certain way based on fundamentals and then look at the charts that
it's trading like and in this case it's just trading like private equity stocks yeah you know i don't know if you've been looking at this tommy but xlf of course i okay i'm
glad you've been looking this is so fragile you've got me looking at iron for shorts now
prometheus i'm not gonna lie yeah um and you want to talk about fragility and structure. And, you know,
I think Mac, like macro to me is just a lot of like nonsense. It's a lot of like trying to be
right kind of thing. But if you just look at XLF, right, regardless, just looking at the chart,
it's telling us the financials are telling us there's a fragility
in the economy, right? And that's very important to recognize, like regardless of the numbers and
the data, right? What the market deems to be value, whether that's overpriced, underpriced,
you know, fair value, you know, it's showing that, that okay we are now rejecting from the last 12
months of value creation for the financial sector and if you accept below this region
you enter into what is going to be a significant imbalance phase to the downside for financials
and imagine you take out the april lows i oh i can imagine i'll tell you what xlf looks like a
little bit with this little bleed is meta before it gave a very big puke uh last week
because meta is what i mean how close is that to trading your april lows
oh it's the exact same thing yeah i mean how long before the xlf gives you a candle like meta just
gave you i think we're just all of these individual names start to drop like flies
yeah i i agree and i mean to the point where we're just looking at the financial sector
um you know the financial sector just losing or is looking to lose its previous year
vwap low, you know, rejection
from last 12 months of value, the market now deems that, you know, the current price is overvalued,
which means we enter into an imbalance phase or you need to go find new value lower,
which is exactly what Meta just did. Meta just lost its previous year VWAP low. What happened?
You then entered into an imbalance lower
and you need to go find new value lower.
It's going to be the same thing for financials
if it loses that low.
Financials is the drag on the down.
So, yeah.
I saw it.
Uh-oh.
Welcome back, Big Sal.
Welcome back, brother.
Wait, is Big Sal back?
Yes, sir.
No way.
What does that mean?
Sal, you want to come up and talk about those predictions, brother?
Have to do it another day this week.
Yeah, I think we're coming up on time.
Too late. other day this week yeah i think we're coming up on time too late oh my goodness cipher
look at this
you want to talk about a fragile structure and these look like quantum stocks back when
i was shorting quantum back here oh let me find it i on q
what is that chart this is a zero that is one of the most schizophrenic charts i have ever seen like its whole history i
i mean you know what this is trading like i'm gonna say it again it looks like these private
equity stocks how funny is it that again we come up with all these justifications for why something
should trade on like these fundamental basis and uh it's just
trading exactly like a certain sector that you would probably never subscribe subscribe it to
right like maybe you would i guess because private equity invests in something like quantum but
you know during a pump quantum's going up because of the tech going down everybody is kind of going
to come up with this like cope for why it should bottom based on fundamentals when we've just
entered ironically a fundamentally different regime for asset pricing
like meta people have been talking about meta with the pe the price earnings ratio i keep
seeing them it's like oh meta just traded into 15 or 16 17 uh pe ratio so it has to be a buy
because at the 2022 bear market low i would have done this or that it Meta is like the last stock that ever trades on fundamentals.
This is
a reflexive
momentum asset.
Something I shorted
to the other day, which I need to
update the Discord on everything,
Oclo.
Oclo to zero.
Ocalo.
That looks like
Solana in 2022 is what it does,
or at least that downtrend looks like
Solana.
That big spike into
the just bleed before capitulation 2022 is a lesson for everybody but for most not in the way that they thought
dude bitcoin miners might be a giga short
i mean this is the bitcoin miner etf look at this complacency what do you think about
did you see that mara sold a ton of bitcoin from easiest yeah i um i did see it i don't hate the
execution um or excuse me i don't hate the idea i hate the execution um clean spark last cycle sold their bitcoin like
damn near at the highs um and people clowned them for it right but it freed up a ton of room for
their um on their balance sheet that way going into this cycle they could grow at the rate they did
grow at the rate they did and i wish that it well if i was a shareholder of them i would have wished
that they would have done it sooner um but to be honest you know the mara selling their bitcoin is
not the worst idea in the world in my opinion opinion. And I think being more active from a management
standpoint is that it looks, I think it looks very good. And a lot of the miners got complacent
and stuck in the idea that Bitcoin mining was the next greatest thing. And then what happened is you
saw some of the names like Iron and Cipher pop off because they went into like the, you know, the cloud, you know, compute and all that. And they were flexible. And because of that, their,
you know, share price reflected that and, you know, went parabolic and the other ones, you know,
stayed stagnant. So I don't hate the fact that they're selling their Bitcoin from that company
viewpoint perspective, but I think it's probably the beginning of what's going to be a lot more companies selling
their Bitcoin on their balance sheets.
And I don't think people are really pricing that in because the idea of this entire cycle
has been the idea that, you know, these companies are going to buy and hold this Bitcoin forever.
We're going to ride off into the sunset and it's going to be all, you know, fun and dandy.
And people are probably, especially the shareholders are probably going to
be getting a rude awakening. I thought it was interesting too. I mean, I remember talking on
this show and we can, I didn't even realize we were going as long as we have. So we can start
to wrap things up here in just a second. But I remember talking about it with you guys a few weeks ago, Jihan Wu, ancient Bitcoin whale. Yeah. Very few. Very few.
Very few. Truly few understand Jihan Wu. Study the ancient Chinese whales, guys.
But yeah, Jihan Wu, his mining company sold all of its Bitcoin around like 65 to 70k.
sold all of its Bitcoin around like 65 to 70K.
And people don't realize Jihan Wu is smart money.
So to me, I'm like, all right, well,
we're seeing smart money sell Bitcoin at the current prices.
And I think that's maybe being misinterpreted
as a capitulation from big players, right?
Like Mara potentially being another one.
And I'm kind of viewing it like, well, it's like what Prometheus just said. You can't, you probably, the mining business is
probably not going to just be as easy as mining Bitcoin, holding that Bitcoin forever, and then
just making grillions of dollars. There's probably going to have to be some active management um in between so i find the fact that you have a
miner as big as mara selling bitcoin to be very interesting um very interesting
but only time will tell i am kind of on board though with the idea of like a minor short i
don't know what those puts look like i'm sure iv is sky high but i like the idea
and i think there are some bitcoin miners on um i want to say there are some bitcoin miners on
hyper liquid perps now so maybe that's a move i'll have to check that out yeah there should be
sorry my cat was freaking out in the background i didn't know if you guys could hear it i was
gonna say it wasn't my cat dude he, he is freaking out. He's like terrible
separation anxiety. We're getting him some Xanax
here this week.
Oh my.
I mean, it's bad.
It's bad, bad.
Yeah.
That's probably a good spot
to wrap up the show, guys. Thank you for tuning in
as always to our final show of Q1.
Kind of hard to believe how quickly this quarter went by.
I know I say that a lot, but I mean, I feel like this quarter in particular,
I'm kind of taking it back by how quickly we are already at the end of March.
Regardless, we will be back for another episode on Wednesday,
our first episode of the second quarter, of course, somewhat self-explanatory.
But a reminder that we do Market Check live throughout the week when the New York Stock Exchange is open on the following days, Monday, Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday.
You guys can expect to see us bright and early at that.
I guess it's not that early if it's Eastern Standard Time, but it just depends on where you're at.
I guess it's not that early if it's Eastern Standard Time, but it just depends on where you're at.
1130 a.m. Eastern Standard Time.
That's typically when we go live here on Market Check throughout the week.
But also make sure to finish up your day with Market Talk hosted by the legendary King Wabi and through the Because Bitcoin account on X.
So that's where you can find the space going live.
Make sure to stay following and subscribe to both Wabi as well as BecauseBitcoinonX
so you can be notified not just when we schedule those spaces, but of course, also when we go live,
which is typically around 330 to 345 EST. So see you guys there later this afternoon for some
entertainment, some alpha, and all those shows throughout the week. But thanks again, everybody.
Have a great rest of your day, a great rest of your March.
And yeah, we'll see you guys on Wednesday.
Thanks again and stay safe.
