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Oil Is Exploding. Bitcoin Is Bleeding. Gold Is Winning. | Market Check
Recorded: March 2, 2026 Duration: 0:50:43Space Recording
Full Transcription
Good morning, everybody, and welcome to today's episode of Market Check brought to you by
BB. There is no second best live YouTube stream to talk about the markets. Welcome back, guys.
It is March. March 2nd, our first day of a new month, our final month of the first quarter of
the year. I'll spare you guys the joke that time flies, but time really
does fly. And certainly we are already off to a pretty feisty start for March when we talk about
geopolitical events potentially impacting the markets. We were down about a percent in
pre-market trading. We are since, I mean, the S&P just flipped green. So we're going to talk
about what that means for the markets, What this Bitcoin squeeze means for the markets. Is this just a
Monday move before reversion later this week is the bottom end. We'll discuss all different types
of scenarios with you guys, but I'm Snorlax. You guys also know me as Tommy. I'm joined by Big
Louie and of course, Jackis. Ready to have a great show for you all today. But before we can get started,
before we can start cooking up alpha sharing charts and the like, uh, by the way, if you guys
have any recommendations, drop them in the comments, but not before hitting that like button,
subscribe to the channel if you haven't done so already, but let's run the like button up.
Uh, really haven't been holding you guys accountable for the like button recently because
you know, we've been in such a bearish trend. I haven't felt too inclined, but because there's so
much going on in the markets, I'll be honest, I might, I might hold you accountable today. We
might end up looking at soybeans. It's kind of funny because I feel like I make the soybeans
joke and it's been so long since we have actually, you know, consistently done the soybeans meme
that new viewers probably have no idea what I'm talking about when I get up with that.
But they might find out today, though. They might find out. So let's hit the like button.
We're going to have a good show, like I said, for you guys today uh start the week off on the right foot but uh yeah i mean the
s&p flipped green uh the nasdaq still red the dow's still red so we're still kind of waiting
to see our directionality ultimately for the week but crypto has given us a pretty sizable squeeze
here to open the week right bitcoin up five six percent eth up six to seven percent uh squeezing
out all of our war shorters man we see this see this every time, you know, there's a
war announced people short, they get squeezed. I told this story, uh, in the morning discord call,
but I don't trade war news because I learned a hard lesson in 2022 when, uh, when Russia invaded
Ukraine and I was up nice P&L.
I woke up the next day, I was flat.
I didn't think anything of it, right?
And then I got my brain squeezed out.
I think it was either the Monday or Tuesday of that week.
And yeah, because of that, I just don't trade war news.
We'll see how everything resolves.
Obviously, we're going to get some lower timeframe volatility, mainly, I think, as a function of people piling into positioning. Obviously, crude oil pumps, we'll discuss if that
is a rally that is going to continue. And if it does, you know what that's potentially going to
look like. But right now, I mean, it shouldn't be a surprise that we see just kind of like,
oh, well, the world didn't end. So we'll crush volatility a little bit.
But the uptrend on the VIX remains. And I think it's still an issue for the market that we're going to have to tackle likely at some point in March or April. But how are we doing, guys?
What are we seeing in the markets? What are we thinking about the entire slate of the market
that we're seeing right now? Obviously, crypto is very strong. Do we think this is a sign of
things to come? Or is this more of a mechanical squeeze before lower pricing well just to immediately
answer this question and welcome everyone uh hope you we got this news and the huge wix spike that we got which
was plus 25 you know it was the highest weeks since uh since november 25 so the highest weeks in uh four months and crypto barely moved to the downside like we we barely
dropped on a illiquid weekend and now you know every like btc is up six percent east is up seven
percent uh eighth is up 11 and virtual is up 14 just you know, virtual is up 14. Just, you know, going through the watch list.
So that tells me the market has been pretty much oversold,
aka what we discussed.
And when the bad news really stops pushing the prices lower,
it's either telling you, hey, you you know it's telling you three things either the sellers get exhausted uh the bad news as bad or buyers simply stepping
in right in either case it's uh it's a bullish it's a bullish thing.
And you know it.
There has been bottom in the past.
And bad news has been striking.
Because you can think of like 2022 bear market, right?
We got a collapse of Celsius and Luna and stuff like that. And each time you saw like a minus 10 to 20% candles on Bitcoin, right?
But then, you know, we started to bottom after June 22.
And there were still bad news, but the prices weren't really reacting.
And the only time it did was FTX collapse.
And that was like two days, two, three days.
Markets sold off, then absorbed everything else, and then quickly repriced higher.
So I think we obviously cannot tell if, you know, like this was DD bottom.
this was dd bottom you know i think that's too early but it's definitely a good sign that uh
You know, I think that's too early.
it's not affecting crypto much anymore now how it's going to affect the world markets in general
i think still a lot i think obviously all is going to be impacted heavy which does impact cpi which does impact equities
so i still think that we are going to see a further follow through
you know in uh whether it's march or april but uh for now
yeah i suppose some relief
yeah yeah definitely interesting how we reacted
i'm hearing some echo a little bit um but yeah interesting how we reacted over the weekend
to that news right um we did see initial sell-off right on that war news on that strike news and
then we got a pretty big bounce back you know over the weekend that was pretty telling
right and i was like okay um is this just a short covering before markets open monday
and then we really puke right like that was definitely a thought but it was also like
you know bottoms you know markets bottom on bad news right right? It's, it's, you know, it doesn't really make sense,
but like bull markets end on good news, bear markets end on bad news. Do I think this is an
end? I don't know. Right. But like Jack has said, if sellers are exhausted, bad news isn't pushing
price down. That's usually a sign for some sort of relief, right? So, you know, beautiful reaction today.
I bet a lot of people, like Tommy said, heard war news, piled into shorts.
They are getting absolutely squeezed here today.
And like I was telling the Discord this morning, it's probably, you know,
the next day, day and a half, probably a let the dust settle type environment
where I wouldn't be overly convicted or overly sizing into any direction if you weren't already, you know, um, because I think
it's going to be volatile, right? We don't know like how long this is going to last. Uh, we don't
know all the details. I'm definitely no, no expert on what's going on. I'm not going to pretend to be. So I'm just staying fluid in the
market. I was positioned pretty long as far as crypto stocks. We're seeing a beautiful day for
crypto stocks today. You got MicroStrategy up 7%, Coinbase up 5, the miners up pretty big today, you know, BMNR 10% circle up another
12, 13% today.
You got the hyper liquid, um, uh, treasury company up 20% today.
So probably not what most people expected.
Um, and you know, I always say this, but if markets were rational, everyone would be
rich, right?
Uh, you know, Sometimes markets don't do
the rational thing. And we've been in a downtrend in this sector of the market for six, seven
months now. So it makes sense to have some relief. So let's see how the day shakes out. I think we'll
have more information heading into later in the week. But I think for now, you know, I, maybe we see some relief.
I think you see Bitcoin push up into 72 K right.
Been talking a lot about this white zone that you know,
if Bitcoin's above like 66, five, 66, six or 65, six, I'm sorry.
And it can hold here, which we are this morning.
We should start pressing 72 K like local structures highs.
If we push 72 K and we could flip it.
I don't see why we don't squeeze up to 80 K.
Right.
So up in this area.
So, you know, I think late shorts are getting squeezed here.
And then we see how the market reacts going into the next couple of days.
But, you know, like, are we repeating 2022, right? For Bitcoin, which is pretty weird how,
you know, this isn't the first time we've had war escalation during a Bitcoin bear market.
Like Tommy mentioned, we got it back here. We got it back here in 2022,
Like Tommy mentioned, we got it back here.
We got it back here in 2022, middle of the bear market.
Bitcoin was down almost the same amount as now, 52%, 50% off the all-time highs.
We had Russia invade Ukraine, wick down.
And then ultimately a couple months later, Bitcoin was up like 40 some odd percent for a bear market rally. So that could
happen. We could be looking at a 50, 40, 50% squeeze in a Bitcoin here in the next month or
two, right? If we're going to see something similar to what we saw back here, the last time we got
some more escalation during a bear market so uh we will see we will
see but you know um late shorts get wrecked that's all i could say never ever short war news
just don't do it you might feel like a genius for a little bit but it almost always retraces
and it usually just squeezes out all of the impulse
shorters, which is exactly what we've done right here.
I've been wondering if this market can trade to like $72,000, $75,000.
If it's going to do it, I think it kind of needs to do it from within this move.
But interesting, I was kind of looking at the flow just now on Bitcoin. Our funding
just went very negative on Bitcoin. So I'm not sure if that's somebody who squeezed price
into some asks or if that is a sign that we have another leg up coming in this rally,
but I guess we'll find out this week, right?
For sure.
Yeah. Big squeeze out of alts today. For sure.
Yeah.
Big squeeze out of alts today.
I mean, even without all this, like the market was due, right?
And, you know, it's not as easy as, oh, we've been going down for X amount of months or down this percentage. Like we need to bounce, right?
Like that's not, I mean, in a way it's a thing but trying to time it
is is very difficult right but you know i don't think anyone should be surprised just to see some
bounces and some rallies out of a market that's been in a downtrend since uh like september of
last year um with little to no relief at all like all coins haven't had like maybe one off here and there, but like no signs of
balance or life. Right. So, um, you know, uh, I don't think anyone should really be surprised,
maybe surprising the fact that we got bad news and it's pumping, but that's markets that's markets.
So, uh, yeah, uh, very interesting. Um, oil's looking pretty good. does it last i don't know maybe we get a pullback first
and and then and then we get a bigger move out of oil i don't know um what do you think oil jack is
or tommy well i've been bullish pretty much from the lows as you know and this move while might be exciting is really still nothing burger
i think it's gonna continue ripping higher obviously nothing goes in a straight line
but uh i just don't see any reason for oil to be hitting any lower than what it already has.
And gradually, I think it's going to be going for new all-time highs
at some point through the next years.
So locally speaking, we just had a major gap up.
We haven't had this type of a gap in...
I don't even know if we had this type of a gap. uh i don't even know when we if we had this type of a gap that tells you a lot
uh this gap is likely gonna get filled at some point probably the sooner it happens the better
because if we were to continue higher we would probably come back later on so if we do close it now probably the best because we could see higher prices
quicker without much deeper retraces later on and yeah i think i think the next move kind
is to like 90 you know then we could see some correction i suppose
correction i suppose 90 damn
nine yes that would be the target for this wedge
even higher yeah i mean just a technical target would be yeah 91 94 maybe even 95 just for this
wedge alone so energy stock and joy lawyers are having a great monday morning
yeah let's look at chevron
this is when i sold a little too early i should have held on to my chevron calls
but made some nice money on them never went broke taking profits exactly um yeah chevron looks
pretty good exxon looks pretty good these are some beautiful high time frame charts
i think chevron perhaps has like a little correction here but generally speaking i think you know it's set to go much much higher
yeah i think a pause here makes sense maybe some pullback and then later on you know eventually
this trade is going to get crowded right and doesn't mean just because it's crowded means
it doesn't go up but you know people piling it piling in at the highs um on obvious war news that are like obviously war
you know a lot of the time increases demand for oil and then maybe you get that this shakeout
phase of this before and they're like higher so if we get something like that i definitely look to
re-enter into oil but i wouldn't be chasing that's for sure which probably a lot of people did going into this morning.
I maxed long oil this morning and now I'm homeless.
I maxed long oil and I maxed shorted crypto at 63k.
And now I'm homeless.
Hafizabah.
Sorry.
H. F.
And Jake, it's way quicker to say those letters.
So I think I'm going to call this one the total california hotel california man
you can you can check out let your mind wander that
we could break up or down but you can never actually leave.
The curse of a market analyst, huh?
Ironically, when I started calling Bitcoin the Bitcoin topping range,
we know it's like the topping range, but I remember calling it the Hotel California.
It trended pretty shortly after that. So I'm going to try to will that same black magic market
yeah yeah i think i'm going to call this the turtle pattern
but turtles have heads right so we need to turtle head
pop out here wondering if we get the the turtle head
pop out here wondering if we get the the turtle head
we might i mean we're stacking highs right like if this is going to be a significant top
like does it make sense that price left all these stacked highs like come on let's be real
like you if you want to compare it to the last significant drop, which is, which is fair to do. Um,
we ran the highs first, right?
Like you don't stack a bunch of highs and then make a,
a major pivot point high in the market with,
with leaving easy liquidity like this behind. Right.
So I think this is fuel, is fuel for a leg higher.
If we do run these highs, does it lead to a longer rally?
Or is it a sweep before a drop?
This looks like date.
I actually think the best thing that could happen for bulls right now is that you see the move index continue to elevate while spy or the s p hasn't moved
um because i kind of feel like what you need is you're going to need tech and financials to turn up and start to break higher.
Right now, you have both kind of putting, I think, downward pressure on the S&P, which is preventing price discovery above 7000.
In addition, obviously, to position or positioning, there's a lot of call sellers at 7000.
all sellers at 7,000. But I think if you were to see the move index, like really start to move,
no pun intended, really start to move while the S&P is still elevated up here,
then maybe we see the Fed, whoever step in and say, yeah, we're going to stimulate,
we're going to provide some liquidity. And if that's the case, while we're still up here,
the market's probably going to rip, right? will turn up tech will turn up the s&p probably breaks out above 7 000 and then i'd be
looking for like 7 500 8 000 but you know until until we see a shift i think in that dynamic
what i see is still okay tech complacency financials bleeding into uh kind of bleeding into support you want to see these two
uh i think um you need to see these two reverse actually if you want to see a breakout yeah i mean
the nasa just looks like continuation right now this doesn't look horrible right uh just i mean this could just easily be a you know ascending triangle
before continuation these are continuation patterns could just be a pause right could
just be a pause after a monster rally off the march in april lows right and yeah it looks
lethargic it looks heavy but you know it could just be a pause before continuation. And I think we're going to find out.
But I mean, if you had to look at sentiment out there, you know, everyone's kind of skeptical on the strength of this market.
And that's not usually how tops occur.
Right.
Major tops in equity markets don't occur when everyone's nervous about a top occurring.
Right.
And it doesn't mean it can happen.
No, I mean, of course it can.
Right.
But usually the tops occur when no one thinks it's going to occur.
Right.
So, you know, I feel like the most surprising move for equities would be a leg higher,
honestly.
But I mean, it could be the echo bubble of crypto Twitter I live in as well.
So I don't want to put too much weight into that thinking.
But I mean, everywhere you look, it's everyone's short the stock market.
Everyone's worried about the stock market coming lower, this and that.
I'm short stocks.
You know, it's not very contrarian right now.
Yeah, I think the market is being very heavily driven by correlations at the moment and so if we are going
to break out you know i think we kind of we do we do need the tech narrative to obviously like be
the driver again um but i also think you know if we're breaking out it probably means the dollar
is dropping significantly lower
uh either either you're going to need the dollar to drop a lot lower you're going to need the vix
to drop a lot lower i have a hard time seeing them kind of suppress the vix they've tried right they
pushed it to like 17 18 a few times i don't think this is going to resolve the way that we did in
november where it just kind of like bled into it turned out to just be kind of like a bear flag and, you know, back to back to support.
So I kind of feel like you're going to have to take some air out of the dollar if you want to if you want to rip markets here, which I don't think is impossible for the record.
I continue to kind of differ from someone like david levinson when it comes to
what i expect from the dollar but um yeah i mean i kind of feel like you need to see
either the dollar drop or the volatility index to drop pretty substantially to get that rally up and
you're also going to need people to start buying spot because what's happening is people are, I mentioned they're selling calls, but there's also just not that many buyers for the underlying index here, the S&P. People are
willing to take right tail bets on options, right? So like the S&P, maybe they'll bet like
an 8,000 strike for the end of next year, but they're not willing to buy the index itself.
They're not willing to buy NVIDIA. They're not willing to buy Nvidia close
to 200. I think these things need, you need to see a change in that behavior for me to think,
okay, well, yeah, we are going to rally to 7,500 to 8,000 on the S&P. If we break above the highs,
then I mean, I think we'll get there probably much sooner than people would realize from the ensuing bull crush and just kind of like positioning,
what would you call it?
Musical chairs that would occur after that.
But I think that's what you want to be looking for here
if you're a bull is for those things too.
The things that have,
because they've been trading at elevated levels
like the VIX,
you haven't been able to see new highs on these equity assets, right?
Look at a Tesla, for example.
It's been bleeding since mid-December,
and it's been progressively making these lower highs on a lower timeframe
at the same time that you have the Vix making higher lows so it's like compression
yeah tesla's still a toss-up for me what are your thoughts on this chart jackus
because this is actually something you brought to my attention a while ago you still think we're here
to my attention a while ago you still think we're here uh yes i do um but we could we could have uh
perhaps another return here of like 100 uh but i do think that generally we
what you can do here is draw a channel even, you know, connecting the 2009 high with the 2022 high. 2009. Yeah. And so I think we are breaking down from this channel.
breaking down from this channel uh yeah and i think we should have too much low prices but
here locally you know after after like we are on that verge of a breakdown i think we could
once again come back to 100 but then roll over
maybe not that high maybe not that high but not that high yeah yeah i mean this like if you really
zoom out like locally the dollar from a little bit of strength but like zooming out like we're
in a very similar scenario that we were coming out of the dotcom boom right, big bubble burst, uh, 2099, two thousands. Uh, and then stocks went on to rally
for like eight years through 2008 with the dollar pretty much dropping from 2022 until 2028. Like
not many people talking about that, right? Not many people talking about a scenario that we
rallied for multiple years from here. Right. That'd be, it'd be really interesting.
Obviously you have peaks and troughs in between nothing's a straight line, but if you're looking at something like the dollar, you know, it's telling, it's, it's telling an interesting story here where if this follows anything similar to what it did here, that'd be, that'd be pretty bullish for risk assets for the next couple of years.
it here, that'd be pretty bullish for risk assets for the next couple of years.
And like Tommy said, you need that tech narrative, right? Like what if the narrative is finally
going to be crypto? It's been AI, as it should be. I think AI is crazy tech, but we're seeing how
innovative and productive AI can be, especially more recently.
It's getting pretty crazy.
So like, honestly, it makes sense for that AI took some out of the crypto bubble, right?
This go around.
But I think we're going to see, we could always see that shift where like crypto, stable coins become the currency of these AI agencies, AI bots. I think that's a huge narrative
that can propel crypto back into the mainstream.
Yeah. I'm just not bullish on the dollar. I timeframe. I think the chart looks incredibly
bearish actually.
Yeah.
The difference I think I have
with other people is I think we're headed
for a period of deflation
at this point.
Which is kind of hard.
Wait, what is that?
What? Sorry. I think we're headed for a period of probably deflation, which doesn't really seem
like it's a super salient point when we're having these issues with the Middle East. And obviously,
oil seems like it's going to be getting more expensive. But i do think that we are seeing yields kind of materially come down here over the last few uh few months and structured i can't exactly say looks super
conducive for a ton of upside so um you know i think the market is kind of probably front running
the narrative that we are headed for for some deflationary pressures rather than inflationary
which was kind of not my bias a few months ago,
but hey, here we are. What are you watching specifically, like TLT?
I'm just watching the 10 year. I haven't looked at that in a while.
I think it made sense that we had a mechanical bounce here, but
I don't really think the
bounce is going to stick. Maybe it does.
Where's the ticker again? US10, right?
I just do the 10Y, and it's usually going to be the birth one.
Okay, there it is oh
damn it there's definitely some compression going on here
you got the fake out let's see yeah i'm this is a this is a crap shoot
this is a crap shoot. This is a crap shoot.
I mean, it's compressing, right?
To me, it's like, are you seeing effectively like a Bitcoin 2021 distributive top getting ready to mark down significantly lower?
Are we seeing, I mean, it doesn't really look like vertical accumulation to me anymore.
Maybe it just stays pinned in a range for a while.
But it looks more bearish to me, I think, with the recent move down that we've had than it does bullish.
Yeah.
Yeah, I don't have, you know, yeah, this could go either know yeah this could go either way let's go either way
i don't know i don't know enough to to comment on it to be honest other than from a charting
perspective but it's at a it's at a muscle level that's what that's all i could really say here
um but yeah so you're saying about the Bitcoin top type price action up here.
That's kind of the vibes it's starting to give me at this point.
But I wouldn't say that I've been very great at trading yields.
So take it with a grain of salt.
Silver's got a big down day today huh
his completion shoulder on on silver
i think so just not here yet um but i do think that silver doesn't really move that much higher that soon? Like after the
move it had, I think it kind of have a complacency shoulder but sort of like move
sideways for like a year or something. Yeah i could see that but yeah a lot of people
yeah this is a death blow man this is it's a volatility killer that's right
that's a monster daily candle
You can definitely see a lot of this.
so you can definitely see a lot of this
For likely maybe this, or maybe it goes up.
Who knows?
I don't know.
But yeah, I saw a lot of people getting re-bullished silver and gold last week.
That's getting curbed today.
Yeah, this could easily be a complacent shoulder too for gold too
Brad Morrison to answer your question if it's still worth buying oil here I suppose that would depend on your time frame
I definitely do think it makes sense like very longer term right but
But like shorter term it's probably not the best buy like you are generally following into this move obviously into like the local move but from a higher time or like a macro perspective
right higher time frame macro up to you um these are pretty cheap prices though like you are still
beneath the prior swing like you you haven't technically made still a new
monthly higher high so from that point of view you are early from like a local move you are late
so yeah you need to answer the question to yourself from what point of view are you looking to buy
from what point of view are you looking to buy?
Yeah, I would agree with that.
If you've got a couple-year time horizon,
this is generally a good area, DCA,
but locally, you're pretty much chasing a move off the lows.
It's been occurring for the last three months,
and that just kind of blew off a little bit
so with that mind you know you make your call but you're a crypto guy like that i mean if you're a
crypto guy though right you see a setup like that you're thinking yeah that's about to pay
very quickly um at least if you're longing like altcoins traditionally, you know, a slow grind into an impulse like that.
Yeah.
So the idea that you need to be patient,
I think is a good point, Louis,
because it's a very different asset.
Data fact.
What about Hyperliquid?
Big move this weekend, huh?
But yeah, I was pretty surprised it moved the way that it did.
Pretty crazy stuff.
What was it, the narrative?
Everyone's chasing oil and metals again is that
i think i saw that floating around yeah i think uh i mean obviously it got a lot of attention
because you can trade oil um you know you can trade oil on chain when the other when
normal markets are closed i was thinking about how weird that is, honestly. I know we're so used to markets being closed on the weekend,
but think about how ridiculous that is, actually.
How adults just take two days off,
and there's no trading of these assets.
I mean, shit happens on weekends.
It's just funny.
You know what I've noticed, Tommy noticed that they schedule like since trump took
over all of these events have been scheduled on the weekend it's like yeah even the tariff news
weekend iran weekend and i i don't know what it was crypto reserve remember that one yeah all of these are on weekend and it's it's it's on
purpose oh absolutely they don't want those vix spikes to impact the market but they also can't
put a they have not been able thus far to erase the floor of bull yet either. So something's going to have to give, I think.
Tommy, what was that scenario where you were, you know, this was a couple months ago,
I think we were talking about the VIX could be going up, but it could be bullish.
Yes. So, I mean, in the tech bubble, we saw the VIX continue to move higher with price.
tech bubble we saw the vix continue to move higher with price um we did see that upside
vol is hard to get in the current construction of the market because most people i mean we've
kind of just like incentivized upside to be a part of low volatility grind so like correlations
in general um you know obviously buoy price just from the fact that they exist, but you can break
those correlations by getting the super volatile upside. It's just a question of, you gotta,
you gotta kind of have like a positioning element to it. You gotta have a disbelief element to it.
It could happen, right? We've seen it before. You're not going to see like
VIX to 40 though, with, with, with upside that that's probably not going to see like vix to 40 though with uh with with upside that that's
probably not going to happen but you can see the vix just stay elevated like this for a while
big pullbacks big pumps yeah it's kind of i think what what you need at this point um bowls that is
because it seems like we've kind of hit like a saturation point on just purely lifting the market by shorting bowl
yeah that's true
yeah that's true
wow whole markets flipped green
when is trump in a victory lap i think he's speaking at 11 so is that now
yeah all-time highs what are you talking about that we are you you know, I'm doing something on this island.
That was at an all-time high.
I'm kind of tempted to shorten video here.
I'm going to be honest.
3% pumped today.
Oh, man, this is starting to look more and more continuation like i feel like this should have broken down already you know not that it can't but man oh man this is getting tight and compressed
in here everyone wants to share this it's true nobody wants to buy it. That's true also.
So does range.
That's why it looks like it is.
But yeah, usually, you know, with these very watched stocks, the way it does is that the idea is probably not bad, but like the market will go sideways for a while. Imagine how many people have options looking at like 150.
It's probably going to come.
The question is when and how many times they sweep the high.
Yeah, it'll come after like this.
What I like about NVIDIA is it's kind of just become like,
it's kind of just become like, if you want to short NVIDIA,
you're just longing the VIX.
You just kind of like compare the two charts at this point,
like NVIDIA moves higher because of short vol,
and it moves lower when it's long vol.
And I think that if, yeah,
NVIDIA options are just probably better priced than explicitly long the VIX or VIX ETS.
So a little bit of options alpha, maybe.
Yeah, maybe.
Maybe.
Look at bitcoin here
nice move today a little bit of economy but unironically this is true i mean the ai trade
is effective i feel like i honestly feel like the uh i was thinking about it over the weekend
like the american tech trade is kind of the only thing keeping the world together right now yeah yeah it's true it's true study the fate of uh the fate of the world on the back of
seven companies who are all building technology that is trying to actively replace the workforce so it's kind of
which we're seeing now taking time bomb anyway that was a big what was that friday thursday
yeah how are they trading today what is it block i think the ticker is xyz oh xyz yep there it is
not up much today oh so this stock was down pretty big this is like the paypal dart
yeah i've been watching paypal too i wanted to buy it on that big gap down i didn't
i think someone's gonna buy, which would probably be bullish.
Okay.
So yeah, I saw a lot of headlines.
This stock was up like 20 some odd percent after cutting, what was it?
Like half of the workforce?
Yes.
But I mean, you're bouncing off range lows.
That makes sense regardless.
But yeah, we're starting to see it.
We're starting to see it.
We're starting to see AI,
companies are going to be utilizing AI,
the better it gets,
which makes these companies more productive,
the cheaper net basis.
And that's bullish for these stocks,
I guess, realistically.
But if no one has jobs,
then who's going to be your,
your,
your customer at the same time,
you know?
So I don't know.
Chicken and a lot of,
yeah,
exactly.
This is an interesting chart.
I mean,
this looks like link in like 2022,
2023 that end up breaking i was just kind of
thinking the same thing about paypal when i was looking at it it kind of reminds me how broke down
that deviation yeah paypal just yeah i've been watching it
but yeah i mean if this can get back above 55 56 it's interesting but yeah this thing
this looks like an altcoin chart right now
that's a brutal chart man yeah brutal like i don't even know what to think about a chart that looks like that i want to buy
mechanically but at the same time it's like there's a reason it's down here yeah
i think tucker made the jokes like who was the last person you know that
you that used paypal and i'm like i don't know i actually don't even know
yeah
yeah that's a reason to anymore that's like arc if it went the other way yeah what is arc doing ugly
please talk about another interesting chart
down four percent today a-r-k-k ah this doesn't make sense.
Interesting.
Kathy Wood is making money.
Yeah, she is. Take that what you will.
It looks like it wants more.
Yeah, I'm not, wouldn't say I'm necessarily bearish on that chart.
Interesting.
Good ol' Ark. Good ol' Cathy. interesting good old arc
good old kathy
this is the uh
the whatchamacallit
tommy
the liver
it is coinbase
coinbase
coinbase is like right here
you never know we'll see Coinbase is like right here.
You never know.
I don't know if I would say Coinbase is there, but I'll have to push back there.
But that's more because I don't like Coinbase.
Yeah.
Hold on.
Let me get on a 10-minute soapbox about it.
Would, would, would?
Would. Would, Kathy, would. Would you?
Kathy, Kathy, would. Do you guys have any other tickers we want to take a look at here oh is that jackets oh
yeah i was actually just looking at arc versus the nasdaq in 2008
Yeah, I went through a full cycle.
and i went through a full cycle
I was sending this tweet down here, but did I buy some?
Absolutely fucking not.
Would it be worth the headache to buy a stock like this, though, for like, what was it, 100?
I guess it gained 100%, didn't it?
It took like a whole cycle to do it, but...
200%, but like nobody bought down there.
I mean, this can go on a couple-year run, honestly,
if things go right.
Maybe worth DCAing and building a position you know like just
some like some eats like just some like passive flows you know just to have in the in the port
um yeah i would look at that to be on
i actually kind of like it here yeah sorry it is actually kind of coming off a pullback now so if you wanted to
add to it it'd probably be here you got a you got a nice 25 move back to all-time high well
local highs and then all-time highs you got another double you got a nice 120 move so
not horrible i know a man who once said that he didn't want a,
I think, what was it, a 7 or 8x return?
Wasn't good enough for that.
10x? Too little?
I think that's what it was on Doge,
which ended up not playing out,
but it was just funny to hear him say that way back in the day.
If you're a very long-term market check enjoyer, you might know what conversation we're referencing.
But if you're not, then you probably have no idea what we just said.
Regardless, guys, that's probably it for the show today.
I mean, we covered everything going on in the Middle East.
Obviously, markets are pumping today.
We'll be back on Wednesday for another episode to discuss.
I'm sure there will be new developments,
and we've got a blood moon tonight and tomorrow,
so that should be very entertaining.
What's unique about this blood moon is that at Pacific time,
I want to say the blood moon happens at 3.33 a.m.,
and you almost can't even script some of these things,
but we'll see if it has a tangible impact on the market.
We'll see if there's any developments with the Middle East and anything else in between. But if you guys enjoyed Market Check today, a reminder that we host this show throughout the week, Monday, Wednesday, Thursday and Friday, whenever the New York Stock Exchange is open.
Stock Exchange is open. You can expect to find us here on those days with our typical start time
around 1130 a.m. Eastern Standard Time. So we'll see you guys again on Wednesday, but make sure to
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but of course, also when we go live.
Last week, we had some amazing spaces over there.
So definitely check out this week's.
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So I'll be tuning in to you guys there.
And yeah, in the meantime,
thank you again, as always, for tuning in.
And of course, guys, now more so than ever, stay safe.
