Projects
![]()
No projects found
Investors
New
DAO Treasuries
DATs
Lend / Borrow APRs
Chains
Categories
Spaces
OIL OVER $100 | The Solid Report
Recorded: March 9, 2026 Duration: 0:51:54Space Recording
Full Transcription
What a weekend. Like, I can't even fathom how many times we've seen this over and over and over again.
You get the big red open on the futures on Sunday night, and it looks terrible.
It looks like we're going to head lower.
It really does.
It looks like we're going to head lower, and it looks like we're going to finally have the correction
that everyone's been anticipating for a long time. then boom we're back here we're green i guys i you know i'm i'm cool with
it i'm cool with these games the market is playing i'm fine with it i'm not trying to short it right
now i'm not trying to go crazy the long side i mean i'm always long most of the time but actually all the time i'm long but it's it's
just uncanny how many times this happens and over and over and over again people try to short stocks
like look the market looks bad okay i'm not gonna lie it looks bad the queues look the queues are
trading near the 200-day moving average or at least it was last night the spy was near the 200-day moving average, or at least it was last night. The SPY was at the 200-day moving average yesterday.
Everything looked like it was going to fall off a cliff.
Oil is still over $100, I believe.
And things don't look like they're going to be resolving anytime soon.
This is a terrible market.
But this is the game that we're in, guys.
This is obviously not going to be flowers and roses every single day.
There's always going to be a catalyst to go to the downside.
The thing is that I'm fairly surprised about is that we just cannot break down. We literally
can't break down. And I could understand how frustrating this would be for people who literally
are trying to short the market, just super frustrating. But I digress. I am not short
the market. I don't think I would
want to short the market until we get some serious confirmation that we're actually breaking down,
even though the charts look like crap. But I mean, let's have at it, guys. Let's have at it.
What is going on, everyone? How are you? If you're going to remember, I said last week,
my voice was a little bit raspy. I got a cold. My voice went away. I'm recovering a little bit
today, but I got to hold down the fort, guys. I got to hold down the fort and bring it still to all you beautiful
people out there. I sound like crap. I could tell I sound like crap. It sounds like I sound like
crap, but here I am today. Nevertheless, what is going on? My boy, Nicholas, Mosh Socks,
iTech, how are you? June, how are you? Yeah. Hello, everyone. Hello, June. Yeah. So it's been
like just a wild weekend. I mean, it was like every single headline this weekend was like,
guys, we're going to have a crappy open. And we had a crappy open and then it recovered. Like,
it's so funny how this keeps happening over and over and over again. Then we had additional
things happen over the weekend and late last week of course when I was not streaming the market.
We had Marvell Technology reported earnings. Now this is actually a very interesting story
because I got to be honest I was long Marvell for a long time. I was buying the dip back last April
which was like a year ago which feels like it was just yesterday and I sold Marvell around 85 bucks
and here I am again today buying Marvell.
And you know, to be honest, it's a very compelling story
because now they're part of the optics chain,
which we've seen with a lot of coherent light
and also AOI.
And it's pretty interesting
because if Marvell is turning into that type of company,
in addition, they have the retimers for,
in other words, speeding the network as far as any inference that we have through cloud technology.
Maybe this is the real play. Now, I don't want to get too technical here, but
we'll look a little bit more into that later on. Also, we have software and semis. Today is a
little bit different because I've been looking at this ratio for a long time and it really looked like semi-conductors were leading the market, which they have been for the last few months and software was getting decimated.
But just a couple of weeks ago, we had that ratio flip and we're going to take a closer look at that one and then we're going to have solid talk.
Okay.
What exactly I'm thinking?
Where do I think the market's going?
What I'm seeing in the market
today, possible long ideas and so on. And, you know, I'm always transparent and blunt as far
as like when I'm longing, when I'm not longing, when I'm shorting or anything like that right
now, I'm not shorting anything, but let's go ahead and get on with the show. So obviously I don't
need to get into the specifics as to where we are in this war. The war is getting worse.
There is more bombs being dropped everywhere.
They're starting to target oil facilities.
At least Israel is starting to target Iran oil facilities and back and forth. And the Strait of Hormuz, which is obviously the biggest topic lately and probably was the most obvious thing that was going to happen.
And honestly, this is probably the ace that Iran decided to lay down on the table very early in the game but we'll get a little
bit more into that solid talk but at the same time we did receive some news last night and i
was looking at the markets like all last night i was reading on a lot of stuff that had to do with
the war and everything because i wanted to kind of be um an expert on this which i'm definitely not
an expert when it comes to the ward oil all this stuff i just want to kind of be an expert on this, which I'm definitely not an expert when it comes to the war and oil, all this stuff. I just want to have a good understanding
so I know how it actually affects the market. Because at the end of the day, if it doesn't
affect the market, I don't really care. Like why would I care? I'm here to make money. So if it
doesn't affect the market, then it's probably not anything I want to keep on my radar.
In this case, this actually does affect the market. So let me just bring up the post that
I had yesterday. Also, I want to play this clipnbc as well um that's going to be a little bit discussion as
far as the uh risk that we're going to have to the downside with the markets and upside
continue to rally they actually summarize this pretty well in cnbc so i'll go ahead and play
this clip for you guys while i set up something over here on the side? And here we go. Yeah, I'm going to start playing this right, right now.
Sullivan talks some crude.
Hey, Brian.
Hey, I think you guys can hear me now.
No one's ever said they couldn't hear me, by the way, Carl, to your point.
So there you go.
Listen, I think Jim's point exactly is spot on.
Look at crude oil.
It's up 9.5%, but it's not at $125 a barrel.
You got Exxon up half a percent Chevron up one quarter of 1%.
You guys were talking about at the markets.
Yeah, they're down a bit, but they're not collapsing.
This is a huge difference from what we had last night.
Jim was talking about waking up at 3 o'clock in the morning and checking the SPYs.
I woke up at 3 o'clock in the morning just in a cold sweat,
wondering where oil was going to go.
I think a lot of this, I'd love to hear your guys' take, is options positioning.
A lot of people, myself included, kind of caught out, not a trading way,
don't take any positions, but thinking that this would be maybe over or less severe
one week out than it turned out to be.
The Wall Street Journal headline Iran by the way appointing
Khomeini son kind of taking that hard line tone fight to the end tone and I think that caught a
lot of people in the oil positioning out short literally where they had to cover last night
that sent the biggest single day oil percentage gain in history what we were up 30 35% at one time. We're still up 10% right now at exactly 100 a barrel.
Not saying that's good, but relative to where we were
last night, it's not bad.
One thing I want to note when you look at an Exxon,
when you look at a Chevron, when you look at a marathon,
some of these other names, they're at or even above
the average analyst price target guys.
Look at ExxonMobil.
It's actually a couple of percent above where Wall Street has a consensus.
There you go.
Says it should be a Halliburton.
It's still a bit under.
But I do wonder if these stocks aren't responding because the trading desk, Jim,
are kind of like, well, yeah, this is kind of where our analyst says the price should be
and the stock is.
So they might have to raise it up or not.
We'll see if the analyst community makes a change. one thing we've seen production cuts or shifts saudi arabia bahrain
uae kuwait and i want to be very clear on these saudi headlines a lot of saudi headlines going
around i don't want to say they're wrong but they're confusing you'll hear the term saudi's
cutting production My sources will
me they're shifting produc
two to a different pipeline.
It's not a cut per se as much
verbal gymnastics guys, but
it does matter when you're
Brian, you've been unbelievable we this, the best guy we have.
Let me ask you, when you attacked the desalonization plants and when Israel attacked an oil facility,
isn't that the kind of escalation that we really can't control right now?
Yeah, I think you're right, Jim.
Listen, you made the point near the top of the show that you can't control the outcome.
And I think that's where we are. I think, you know, once you start a fight, it's you don't know how it's going to end.
And I think there was and I'm guilty of this, by the way, sort of a an idea that Iran might take a little bit of a softer tone, that maybe disappointment of a new supreme
leader by the Assembly of Experts might be somebody that wasn't pro-West. They don't have to say they
like us, but would be less adversarial with the installation of Khomeini's son. It looks like
it's different. I'm not getting into Iranian politics, but my point, Jim, I think to your point
is that the outcome here is uncertain.
And when you've got Iranian drones and missiles and whatever it is,
hitting Bahraini refinery plants and Qatari energy plants, things spiraled.
So they're obviously instilling a lot of fear in the market. Okay. They're not going on the CNBC.
They're obviously instilling a lot of fear in the market.
Okay.
They're not going to see NBC.
There's a legitimate worry to be worried about oil staying this high because if oil stays
as high, oil touches everything.
Okay.
Again, I'll get a little bit more into this during Solid Talk, but generally speaking,
oil above $100 per barrel is not good for as far as logistics, production.
It's in everything. It's in plastic,
semiconductors, everything. It's used for everything. And if you get oil above $100,
that means the cost of everything else will increase. And it's not so much the fact that
everything costs more expensive. That's the bad part. The bad part is that it's a shock to the
system. It came out of nowhere and it was not priced into the market.
And now it's being priced into the market.
So that was like their commentary on it.
I don't believe they commented too much in the G7.
So the G7 has like about $1.2 billion.
I saw 1.2 billion barrels of oil.
The G7 does burn about like 30 to 40 or even like 100 million barrels of oil a day.
Now, it doesn't really matter exactly what these are. Oh, the G7 has like 12 days. and does burn about like 30 to 40 or even like 100 million barrels of oil a day.
Now, it doesn't really matter exactly what these – oh, the G7 has like 12 days.
They're not going to release all the supply, okay?
Like they're not going to release all that.
It's more of the sentiment in this.
Now, I got a lot of posts on here. Actually, let me open up my Twitter real quick because I did post about this last night.
And I apologize for my voice, guys.
Like I'm really trying to like not die right now on the screen because I can't even talk.
And my kids certainly don't give me any bit of a break to not talk. I mean, just those kids are
just wild all day, every day, all weekend. So we have over here that the G7 to discuss joint
release on emergency oil reserves. And as soon as this was released last night, I was looking at overnight markets.
I was looking at crude oil and immediately it dropped 6%.
I wasn't playing it to the downside.
And, you know, it was actually a pretty interesting setup
because when I saw it,
when I saw like oil peaking like that last night,
I was thinking about opening a short CL position
and it would have been pretty nice to catch that one,
but I didn't catch it completely. I did catch a little bit, but like not a lot. And it was just like, whatever.
But they did come out this morning and say they were not ready to release it. Okay. So now that
that's not the thing I get. It's like, Hey, they're not ready to release the oil. It's like,
okay, fine. Yeah. That's not a big deal. But the thing is, is that this is, this is a conversation
for the G7, or at least it had been a conversation. So over here, a lot of news is associated with
this recovery from the end of the world as of last night when futures opened. The G7 reached
a broad consensus that they are not ready to release strategic oil reserves into the market
yet, but officials said the option remains on the table if conditions worsen. And also at the same
time, President Trump said the administration is reviewing options to address the spike in oil prices, signaling that potential actions are still being considered. So it's clearly a problem.
Okay. Everyone can tell you this is clearly a problem. And I think the president knows this
is a problem too. The issue is that he can't talk up. Okay. I know people are like, oh, he's going
to talk. He's going to talk. It's like, in this case, he can't taco. Okay. Why can't he taco? Because if he backs out of this
war, it's still going to happen. Israel is still going to attack Iran and they're still going to
keep the straight closed. So at this point he already opened Pandora's box. He can't exactly
close Pandora's box. And that's the reason why this might last a little bit longer than we expect. This isn't like tariffs where he could just bring out this big board of
all these tariffs, these retaliation tariffs in the market and freak out. And just a couple of
days later, he can be like, you know what? I kind of was a little bit too exaggerating there. Maybe
I'm not going to be so tough. Tariff deals, whatever. It isn't that situation. He can't do
that because one midterms are right here. So he's
going to lose all credibility or a lot of credibility if he were to back out. But two,
it's Donald Trump. He has to stand his ground. He's not going to give up. Okay. He has talked
about certain situations, but this is literally like he started a war against Iran, right?
And if you were to tackle this one, it wouldn't really look so good.
And plus, he'll look like he's a pushover.
He gets obviously much more involved in that than a lot of people actually think of what I know too,
because I'm definitely not a geopolitical expert.
But I think we all know that he can't exactly tackle himself out of the situation as much as he used to with the tariffs.
It's a little bit different.
And that's probably the uncertainty the market doesn't like,
the fact that they know he can't tackle out of the situation.
So let's go ahead and move on to the next topic.
I'm going to talk a little bit more about my thoughts on that one later.
And then we had last week that Marvel Technology reported earnings.
I do have a clip over here from Bloomberg that does discuss a little bit more in terms of Marvell.
Actually, Gap did report earnings as well.
I think the ticker symbol is GPS.
And I mean, no one really cares about the Gap when it comes to earnings.
It's nothing to do with the semiconductor story.
Everyone cares about Marvell.
And it was actually pretty interesting.
Like I mentioned earlier, I was long Marvell before when I bought the dip and I sold it and it was
a lot of opportunity cost of, I did hold that stock for that period of time. But I did, excuse
me, I did buy back into it this morning on the dip. It is what it is. You're never going to catch
a bond with anything, but the charts do look pretty promising. So let me go ahead and play
this clip over here of Marvell technology. And we're going to talk a little bit more about that one here
we go boom in data centers so this is a chip maker um that said year-over-year revenue growth
will accelerate through fiscal 2027 and actually grow faster than anticipated okay so what does
marvel do it's got these chips that are used in servers and networking systems needed to fire up all those data centers because of AI. So it expects revenue
in 2027 to grow more than 30%. That's pretty amiable to nearly $11 billion. Remember, we heard
from Broadcom, another big chip maker this week, saying the similar things and that AI chip sales
are going to top $100 billion next year. I want to check really quickly.
Shares of Marvel technology, like I said, up, what do you have it at?
Up 10% here in the pre-market rating.
There you go.
Mine just popped up too.
Is that like comics?
You know, it's so funny you say that.
No, this is not Marvel.
This is Marvell.
This is the technology company.
Oh, is that how we say it?
That's how I say it.
I think you just say it to differentiate it from Marvel Comics.
Yes, exactly.
Okay.
NewTex Health plunging here 22%.
This is a health-focused application software firm.
Revenue for the fourth quarter missed the average estimate.
And here's really the deal.
A $55 million charge for arbitration claims.
Not sure what those were around, but that dragged down fourth quarter profit.
NewTex is a stock company company $735 million market cap. It was already down 36% year to date.
Okay. So do we have time for one more? You want to do one more? Costco, Costco.
We don't need to talk about Costco. Not super important. All right. So Marvel Technology
reported earnings. Now what is marvel technology
they are a semiconductor company probably a little bit more known as baby broadcom as much as a chip
stock investor um nick keeps on mentioning all the time which he's right in a certain sense because
um broadcom obviously develops the asic chips and the tpus for google plus other companies as well
uh marvel Technology focuses on
certain hyperscalers. They design the semiconductors or the Tranium chips for Amazon,
or at least last time you heard they did. We don't actually know if they're involved in Tranium 4 or
not, but I guess we're going to find out soon. And they also designed the Meta chips as well as the
Microsoft chips as well. And that was their going thing for a while.
And they're not exactly the most profitable company out there.
But then they said something interesting in the last earnings
and also had the earnings display last quarter.
And I will bring that up here on the fiscal.ai.
Let me share this screen.
Okay.
So by the way, guys, if you guys want to check out fiscal day, you can check out
the show notes at the bottom below and you'll get yourself a code for two free weeks in fiscal AI,
no credit card required. Okay. So I use fiscal AI for everything. And obviously I'm going to use
it right here. So we have Marvel technology earnings last quarter. I like to do by quarterly,
but in Marvel's case, their quarterly earnings are like all
over the place.
So we'll just switch to last 12 months here to kind of even and normalize everything.
They grew up 42% last quarter up.
So yeah, up.
No, last 12 months, it grew by 42%.
For the last 12 months, they were up about $8.1 billion.
And let's take a look closer at the segment and KPI.
So their data center
is really going to be the crux of the growth over here that's 6.1 billion which is like 75 percent
of all of their revenue and the other is the communications and other revenue which also is
contributing as well and semi sorry data center grew at 46.5 percent last 12 months so it wasn't
so much how much this grew this quarter.
It was the commentary and what they said for the next quarter.
So let's go ahead and take a look at the Marvell investor relations page.
We're going to bring up the presentation over here.
And this is their business results.
Okay.
So if I look over here, and I really recommend listening to the conference call.
The conference call is really good.
So I did already go over this. So, uh, they,
I did already go over this. It grew quarter over quarter,
seven percents and where is, where was the again?
And here we go. Financial outlook. So next quarter,
they're projecting $2.4 billion, give or take 5% and gross margins up,
uh, 51 to 52%. And for the, for, um, non-GAAP, it's a little bit higher,
but let's just focus on GAAP for now
because they do exclude a lot of costs,
especially operating expenses like SBC and so on.
Diluted share count is going to be $883 million.
Expenses is going to be a little bit higher.
Obviously, you're going to have to produce more
and you're going to have to expend more as well.
GAAP profitability.
So that's always good to see whatever comes to this company.
Cause they've been like teetering back and forth on this one.
Well, let's focus on this $2.4 billion. Okay.
What they had said here, where was it?
Maybe it was in the commentary. Huh? They didn't break it up.
But what they, what they had said in their earnings call,
and this was actually very interesting because the, last i've been following marvel technology for quite
some time let me close this out how do i stop this thing dude this there we go i've been listening to
marvel technologies quarterly uh conference call many times and matt mur Murphy is an interesting CEO because if you look at the Marvell chart,
it kind of reflects how his company is doing in terms of the stock. Actually, a lot of CEOs do
that. But last conference call, he sounded like super confident. And it's pretty interesting
because usually the analysts come back and forth with Matt and the team, and they always try to
pin him with certain questions. And you can kind tell like he can't really think of the answer or maybe he doesn't
know the answer but it's not really what the adults want to hear but the last earnings call
sounded very confident and there are a few things we can take away from this one and i know a lot
of people are talking about our rubrics i'm going to get into that one too but marvel technology
could be an optics play here at least somewhat of an optics play i did share this tweet uh
yesterday saturday morning i believe let me just bring it up over here real quick
it's really cool graphic too um i've been messing around with these graphics for a while
so how come i can't you know i can never seem to find things every single time
i gotta bring it up over here all right right, here we go. Let me just share this tweet.
So I have this chart over here of basically different layers of the optic stack.
And we already know Kratos is part of the stack as well, MXL.
Everyone already knows the optical modules, AOI, which has been crazy running for a while.
And then the laser and photonics, light and coherent, and then fiber optic infrastructure. So what exactly are optics?
Okay. So if you think about ethernet cables, right, which is you'd be capable that connects
your desktop to your switches or your routers, whatever it is that is using a copper wire.
And then there's also fiber fiber uses light. So if anyone's ever heard of Verizon Fios,
Also fiber, fiber uses light.
So if anyone's ever heard of Verizon, Fios, or I don't know, I forget the name of the
other companies, but the thing is that these wires is like a bunch of glass insulated on
the inside and it uses light to either emit light or don't emit light.
Cause a lot of this communication is like zeros and ones, right?
Computers are binary.
They run off zeros and ones.
So the light is on, it's one.
If the light is zero, the light is off, it's a zero, right? And if you put all of these together and aggregate all
this data, you end up getting packets, right? Packets of data, which communicate and millions
and hundreds of packets, millions and hundreds of millions of packets equate to data and inference
query or so on. Light travels a lot faster than how much energy travels through copper,
right? So this is probably one of the fastest forms of transmitting data across any medium
in whatever we have today. The issue is that it's not exactly scaled out to meet the requirements
of what we need in this world, but this is the reason why it becomes important because when you
think of training models, time isn't so crucial as far as training models.
We've talked about this for the last three years.
Inference is very important when it comes to querying LLMs, when it comes
to grabbing new data from a database and so on.
Inference is important because you're basically hitting LLM with a query
and then getting your data back.
But that like millisecond that it takes to get back that additional few milliseconds
could cost you a lot of business.
So you want this data to travel a lot faster.
And this is the reason why Broadcom is trading so richly.
And this is a reason why a lot of other companies are trading so richly,
especially in the optics space,
because it is the next leg to further speed the usage of AI and capabilities, right?
So Marvell, they already are involved in this business in terms of retimers, basically speeding
up the throughput of data through all the cabling and mediums, right? So as they were discussing
last quarter is that they might be getting into this optic space or be able to help with the
throughput in the optic space.
Which means that all of a sudden, hello, we are all of a sudden have a bull case from Marvel that has to do with an already existing secular trend bull case, which is optics.
There's other companies that are also involved in optics as well.
Via, which shout out to Stock Talk.
He's been in this one for a long time.
Then there's Fiber Octa Infrastructure.
Glow.
Excuse me. CLFD, Com, and so on.
Then Poet is something that's being discussed by the dude on Reddit, Serenity.
And that's actually pretty interesting when I've been looking at that one too.
Might be a little bit risk with that one because their profitability profile is not as good.
But if we think about Marvell, even on the chart, let me go ahead and bring up a chart for Marvell.
Hold on.
Oh, the market caught a bid. Oh, that's dope. This thing is not opening up. Let me stop hiding this one. Let me
share. All right. Oh, look at that. I have Wolf on there. That's cool. All right. So Marvell
and Ooh, nice. Marvell's catching a little bit
here. All right. So if we look at the chart, this is what I should have went long this stock last
Friday, actually, but I didn't. So you can't always catch the bottom, but this is pretty
interesting here because if you look at this chart on the daily, it's basically been chopping
sideways since last September. Okay. Even arguably we haven't even been anywhere for the last two years in this stock.
Right.
So you have all the moving averages here very compressed on the stock,
meaning that it's poised for a move in a certain direction.
Right now, it looks like that moves to the upside,
which would be really cool if it did go to the upside
because I'd be really good for my portfolio.
But what's interesting here is that if you look on a lot of these timeframes,
a lot of the moving averages are compressed and it's trading above the 200 week
moving average. It's trading above the 200 day moving average. In fact,
right before the earnings, it closed below the 20 day moving average,
which is just wasn't expected for their stock to go up so strongly in the last
couple of days. If we look on the monthly chart,
it's trading above the 21 month, right? Or the 21 EMA on the monthly.
So it has been retaining or it has reclaimed its bullish trend on the monthly perspective.
On the weekly perspective, bullish trend.
On the daily perspective, bullish trend.
So in just a matter of a couple of days, this stock has flipped from being a non-beneficiary
of AI in general to now all of a sudden it's a beneficiary.
And we've all seen what happens whenever a company goes from being not beneficiary to
all of a sudden being beneficiary. Oh, that's interesting. IGV is underperforming socks by a
lot. Oh, look at that. Socks bounces off the 100-day moving average. See guys, these charts
really do matter. So where do we think Marvel is going to be? Well,
Marvel's all time high happened like all the way back here, back.
This was all the way back in early 2025, late 2024.
And I still remember this because I was buying Marvel down here and then I,
trust me, I did, I should have sold all the way up here, but I did not,
but it wasn't that big of a position.
This is when I started adding a lot back here as it was going down.
I was adding to Marvell on Estera Labs, and I sold out of Estera Labs when I was above 200 bucks, and it's not even close to there right now.
This is actually something I want to keep an eye on as well, but the profitability profile is not that great when it comes to Estera Labs.
Marvell technology obviously is profitable.
But you've had a recovery of all these bullish trends, And it's pretty interesting because if you look at the volume,
obviously had large volume the day after its earnings and it's continuing to have pretty
decent size volume today, but this volume has just been flat or very low for like the last
six, seven months. So now all of a sudden you have the market looking at this stock
and becoming very bullish shit and you put everything together.
Maybe it's starting to be something very bullish.
People are saying oil is crashing.
Oh, wow.
Look at that.
Oil just went red.
That's interesting.
Oh, there it goes.
There it goes, guys.
We had, we have the tweet. We have the tweet, guys. We have the tweet.
We have the tweet, guys.
It has happened.
The tweet has happened.
Let me share this screen for y'all.
First of all, shout out to Fast Stock Market News.
He was pretty fast in this one.
Shout out to you, Troy.
Trump says the war could be over soon.
He just said it could be over soon, but the market is already like, let's go.
The market's like, let's go.
The war could be over soon.
Listen, honestly, I hope it's going to be over soon because it just sucks seeing a lot of people die
just because the administration just wants to put something lot of people die just because uh just because
administration just want to put some in the front lines but whatever whatever um uso puts yeah you
know what it's like really because i just said it's not a good idea to buy uso puts because the
ivy is so damn high but also you need to be very strategic if you're buying puts on USO. Guys, the IV is so high. Even if
USO drops, unless you're in and out, you need to be perfectly timing that thing because it decays
insane. The only way that USO would make sense is if you short it with just shares, you straight up
just short USO, or if you buy in the money puts. But if you're buying out of the money puts, it expire on Friday,
dude, you need to be like very on time with that thing. So, I mean, I hope you're going to make
money off of it. Yeah, dude, the market is like freaking pumping here. Holy cannoli.
Woo. Thing is crazy. Let me try to see if my voice is like, Let's go. Let's go. All right.
So 3% on socks.
That is very nice to see.
And we have IGV lagging a little bit here.
What if IGV, I wonder if IGV was like a fake bounce.
That would be like very interesting because I did rotate some capital into
rubric as well as service.
Now, like those are the two companies that I'm like very bullish on.
I'm going to come to software, but you guys know know me i don't like to buy falling knives or anything i'd rather buy the recovery
than buy the uh than buy the the falling knife um rubric uh actually was that it for the skit
softwares okay i'm actually on software and semi so that's good we already talked about marvel
technology we'll go a little bit more into that later we go ahead and follow me on twitter if you
want to check out more than that one yeah i mean I mean, rubric, it is above the 20, which looks bullish before earnings.
I mean, you guys are, I'm bullish rubric. Okay. Like out of all the cybersecurity companies out
there, CrowdStrike is super expensive. So I'm not buying CrowdStrike. I used to own it and I
already sold it around the 500 plus region. Palo Alto, you're not going to get a double on Palo
Alto. Like it is a very mature cybersecurity company.
They own the entire platform.
It's probably a good hold for a long term, even at these prices.
But I'm not going to buy it because I want to get that risk reward upside.
Rubric is probably your best bet when it comes to my best bet
because I can't tell you financial advice.
I can't tell you what to buy.
But in my opinion, I think Rubric is probably
one of the more sound cybersecurity companies to buy. Let me actually go ahead
and, uh, check this out over here real quick. So I got rubric over here. And if I look at the
three month chart on rubric, it's just been like a massive downtrend. So why did I rotate into Rubrik over here? So if I take a look at, um, they, they've actually only been IPO'd for like, what is
a couple of years now?
Cause I think they IPO'd in 2024.
Yeah.
May of 2024.
And I was like buying it down here and I added this to recently.
And then the interesting part is that like they were trading all the way up here, like
around a hundred bucks or something.
And they've just been massively trending down.
But if you look at, uh, I mean, if you you look at igv like it's no wonder the entire igv thing has been getting hit
for like the last like six months or something so it's no wonder that all these cyber security and
all these software stocks have been getting a massive hit now let's look at service now
service now actually was trading near its all-time high less than a year ago. It was like above here,
like around 206. And then now it's trading all the way down here at 122 and 122. So we could be
having a little bit of recovery over here. Let's go ahead and take a look at the technicals over
here for Rubric real quick and also service now, because it's definitely looking a lot better than
it did before. Rubric, I already told you it's above the 21 EMA
and you have the nine EMA flipping over this one EMA, which is a recovery of the short-term
bullish trend. It's above the 20 day moving average. But if you look in the weekly, it's
still not looking so hot, but it is nice to see this bit of a bounce here. And at these levels,
I would think rubric is still a good buy service. Now, same thing, a good buy at this level you're
holding for a long period of time. Um, tactical and software right now, it's a little bit iffy because you have to
get this continued thrust into the upside when you think of these software stocks in order to
capitalize off the... And you guys already know, I have a big position in Zeta and I'm still long
Zeta. And it is good to see that it's creeping up here back above 100 week moving average.
And then on the daily, it's coming back up here. It's retesting the blue line over here, which is a 50-day moving average.
So bullish rubric, Zeta, and ServiceNow.
Let's see.
Let's grab red today.
Can't get enough of this, man.
Can't get enough of this.
Venture Global.
Oh, yeah.
This thing's going to pull back.
Guys, if energy is pulling back, Venture Global is going to pull back.
Because look, this started going up after the war.
So if we price out the war, this is going to get hit.
So you've got to kind of be careful and take some profits here
if you're riding this very short term.
Long term, it is what it is.
You know, this price today doesn't even matter.
But yeah, oh man, this thing is just ripping right now.
It's crazy.
Oh, Marvell, let's go. Let's go. Oh, look at that
on semiconductor is back up 3% today. That's good to see. What else is going on the SAM port over
here? Oh, I got to take up stuff. I did sell ACLS, got a position. It is what it is. And I added
Marvell here and I also added more to Fastly.
I already had Fastly in the portfolio, which is great.
Marvell's in the portfolio.
Ampex, I've been in this one.
It's $11.
IRDM, got a small position in that one.
I got out of IRN.
I got out of Lemonade.
I was just looking at these ones.
I didn't get back into Simo, Silicon Motion.
I don't know.
Maybe this chart can come back but actually they
recovered some pretty decent size over there but yeah so what do we think about rubric coming into
earnings i mean you have to understand the story here when you think about cyber security you have
endpoint cyber security management which is your krautstrike your satin the one also palo alto does have a product uh sorry not falcon uh
cortex ai is i forget exactly the name of uh palo alto's endpoint security client product
um but their entire platform does include endpoint zscaler is more of network security and palo alto
is also in there as well as in addition to fortinet and so on a bunch of other companies
um rubric is more of data security.
So data security is important because in this case, you have a lot of backups going on your
servers and your environments and Rubrik take care of that for you, but they also scan all
the backups.
So that way, if you have like a big incident, like let's just say, I don't know, the crowd
drag outage we had like a year ago or two years ago, Rubrik can restore that for you
and make sure that data is not corrupted or anything, meaning that it's not going to contain
the issues that occurred when CrowdStrike upgraded its kernel. So if Rubrik is getting
into something called agentic AI security, maybe that's something worth exploring. Maybe it's a
little bit more important than people expect, not just from a cybersecurity
data security platform, but also protecting the permissions and the rights in terms of
navigating where these agents are accessing around your entire system.
Because in order to use an AI agent, it needs access to databases, applications, programs,
and whatever web apps you're running.
Right.
So it does these things on behalf of you, right?
If you're using Claude and it needs your authentication with your Google account in
order to make calendar invites on your behalf.
So who's governing that?
Well, when you give it full access to your Google calendar, it can do whatever it wants.
Now, I know if you're using Claude, maybe it's not that big of a deal, but if you're telling
cloud to do something and you have no idea what it's spitting back at you and you just say, okay,
go ahead and do it. It might delete all of your events. So what you might want to do is restrict
the agent from deleting calendar events. And that's a rubric comes in, not in that specific
entity, but if you think an enterprise scale, there's a lot of measures to be put in place.
So that way these agents that these hundreds of engineers are running
against all these LLMs all day, every day,
doesn't start breaking things, right?
And that's the thing about governing these permissions.
This is the reason why Palo Alto acquired CyberArk,
because the security permissions of these agents is going to be very important.
And Rubik is already ahead of the curve by doing that. The thing is though, is that what makes Rubik more attractive
today is not because its chart looks a lot better than it did a couple of weeks ago,
but also its valuation is a lot better than it was when I was trading at a hundred dollars.
So let me go ahead and share this screen over here of rubric. I've been talking this whole time with the screen over there.
That's great.
All right.
Let me go ahead and share this one.
So rubric on its ratios over here.
Let's see.
It's Ford metric, Ford valuation.
I like to use EV and TM sales over here.
And then we're going to go by quarterly so we can get those exact numbers.
Damn.
This market's going wild right now.
Crazy.
It's trading at a seven times EV and TM sales when it was trading at a hundred
bucks, this thing was 15 times, which is crazy expensive.
Okay.
So if we look at seven times and be MTM sales, that's not too demanding considering it's average.
It's actually trading near the cheapest it's been trading since it IPO on this metric, right?
So also on top of that, if we look at their financials, let me go to their income statement
and they are not a profitable company on a gap basis, but they are profitable free cashflow wise. They're growing at 48% year over year, $350 million last quarter.
Now let's look at the rubric IR for an actually, no, you know what? It's probably better to look
at the estimates from wall street. That'll be a better gauge in what's happening here.
So next quarter, they are expected to come in at less than 350 million, which is setting
the bar pretty low for them.
And then an annual basis for 2027, which would be this year, let's look at 2028.
That'll be the end of next year.
They're expected to come in around $2 billion, right?
So if today on the actual, they're about, I think they're about $1 billion.
Why does, oh, this is the annual one?
Yeah, they're at about $1 billion when it comes to annualized revenue.
Last 12 months.
Man, I don't know if you guys can hear my kids in the background,
but those kids are wild right now.
Last quarter, they came at $1.2 billion.
Okay, so that means that in about less than two years,
they are expected to get...
Actually, no, they
just did report.
Hold on.
I think they're one year ahead in terms of the fiscal calendar.
Let me share this tab.
Yeah.
Okay.
So they are fiscal year.
Yeah.
They're one quarter.
They're one year ahead.
I don't know why these companies always do this all the time.
So this is the last earnings over here.
And if I scroll down here to subscription AR, this is going to be your forward metric as far as what they're going to end up realizing as far as revenue goes.
Their subscription AR is at $1.35 billion and their cloud AR is 1.17.
Their subscription AR is at $1.35 billion.
And the targeted future model, of course, is to have more subscription AR versus cloud,
which is what we're already seeing, but they expect the cloud to catch up a little bit over
here.
So let's look at their guidance for next quarter.
Okay.
So actually they don't get, they give the guidance for next quarter, 340.
They're going to beat this one.
They usually do beat it all the time.
They're guiding for the entire year.
That means the end of this year, $1.5 billion.
So if they're growing like about 30%, one year from now growing at 30% is definitely
above.
That's if they like slow down revenue growth, 30%, which I don't think they will.
I think they're still going to keep it like 35, 40%.
That means you're going to beat the wall street estimate that they have over here for
next year at $2 billion. You're probably going to be above that one. And it's very likely their
profitability metric is going to be a lot stronger. So they already are going to be free cashflow
positive at the end of the year, about $200 million. So they're looking at about 15% of free cash flow margin. And the non-GAAP EPS is just shy of, um, 16 cents, uh,
on a, uh, on a negative basis. And they are expected to have 197 million shares, which is
better than just the end of this quarter. So that's always good to see. Um, the subscription
ARR contributing margin is 9%. So we're actually, we're probably going to get guidance for, uh,
next year in this
quarter, which they are actually reporting. Let me look at their earnings hub. I think
they're reporting, is it tomorrow? Yeah. Thursday actually. So they're reporting on Thursday.
They're expected to come in. Yeah. I think they're going to be beating this number likely.
So a company's trading pretty cheap at this point uh on a historical basis and
if they do have a good quarter they're likely going to rally but that really i think a lot of
this really just depends on where the market is at as far as software stocks go so if we look at
software stocks here um yeah you know what?
Software just turned green today,
but semiconductors are up like 4% of the day,
which is really good to see.
Something just happened to the queues.
Holy moly, guys.
We are ripping.
Wow.
I mean, I'll take it.
Jeez.
Look at that candle.
That is a massive bullish engulfing channel right there.
Dude, we were all the way down here last night.
This is crazy.
I mean, I'll take it.
I'll take it because I am definitely not short this market.
But like the question is, are we going to hold this?
Because how many times have we done this against a 50 EMA on the queues and just got rejected,
rejected, rejected?
Are we going to hold it this time?
I really hope we hold this time.
But look, look at this.
This is the same thing every single day.
Boom.
Gap up.
Open down.
Gap up.
Open down.
Gap up.
Gap up.
Down.
Down. Up. Down. Like this happens all the time. Gap up, open down, gap up, gap up, down, down, up.
This happens all the time.
I mean, I don't know how you guys want to play this,
but this is the reason why I'm not trying to do anything crazy as far as short-term options.
You want to have something that actually expires at least six months out.
Why is the market ripping?
The market is ripping because Trump just said the war is ending soon. The war is completed. Get out of here, man. The war is not completed.
Why does it say 1139? It's not 1139. My time is wrong. Yeah. No, yeah. It is a relief rally.
It is a relief rally. Hey, I'm not telling you to sell cover calls. All right.
I am not giving financial advice.
That's all on you, man.
That's all on you.
If you want to sell cover calls, go ahead.
I'm not selling to cover calls here because this market's crazy.
USL dumping hard.
Is it dumping?
Wow.
That thing is dumping hard.
That's crazy.
All right.
So how much of those puts that I was looking at this morning?
I didn't buy puts.
I should have bought puts.
I didn't buy puts.
Damn, dude, this market is freaking wild.
All right, let's look at those puts that I was looking at this morning.
God damn it.
They're 400%. All right, whatever it look at those puts that I was looking at this morning. God damn it. They're at 400%. All right, whatever.
It is what it is.
These USO puts that I was looking at this morning, the 90 puts in this morning,
they were like $5.
Not $5.00, but like $0.05.
And they're at like $1 something now, which is just wild.
I mean, I don't know.
That's taco.
I said he's not going to taco. And the dude just
taco. He just taco. He just taco guys. He just taco. Oh, wow. Pat. Are you, I give me a shout
off your long path. Cause, um, that dude, Jake is long path. I don't know, man. I hope he makes it back because that would be crazy.
AHR.
Oh, crossroads in the house.
Crossroads in the house.
Yeah, you know what?
The optics trade is probably back on the table now that everything's resolved
or at least some resolve AOIs up there.
Ampex.
Yeah, let's go.
Yo, Ampex.
Drone battery technology. Let's go. Yeah, semiconductors are
back, guys. Semiconductors are for sure back. They are back, apparently. Look at that TSM.
Sandisk is at 10%. Guys, this is a massive short covering rally. I really feel bad for people who
are trying to short this market this morning. Oh my goodness. They probably got their butts served to them on a platter.
You know what?
Shout out to my BM&R guys because like, I didn't even type right.
RM&R?
You got a lot more to go.
You got a lot more to go over here to recover.
But you know what?
Shout out to you guys for holding strong.
Oklo had news this morning.
They're partnering with centrist energy um they're going to be partnering with them on a project that's like right next to
their 1.2 gigawatt power capacity plant that they are planning um so it's not there yet but they're
planning to do it so we'll see what happens there i mean you know if oklo comes back oh look at that
kind of pull back a little bit because that was a massive move.
But, yeah, no, that would be crazy if, like, this thing holds it.
If we get a follow-through into tomorrow, that would be wild.
If we get a follow-through day.
Like, look at this massive bounce in the queues, man.
That's crazy.
All right, so, solid talk.
What do I think is going to happen?
We're going to wrap this up in the next couple of minutes.
Want to get you guys out of here. Well, I mean, it is nice to see. We're going to wrap this up in the next couple of minutes. I want to get you guys out of here.
Well, I mean, it is nice to see the market was going to come back.
And I'm not surprised to see a massive short covering rally that we see right now when you have like any bit of optimism. Because when you have the market on one side of the boat where they're all like, you know, we're hitting we're hitting 200 day moving average on spy at a six
55. Everything looks like crap. Oil is going to go to $200. You know, it's like, when you have all
this stuff, it's like so much fight out there. People are going to get scared. They're going
to sell stuff. Okay. And I know you guys probably didn't get scared. You probably hung around,
just chilled out for a little bit, but a lot of fun managers have risk tolerance. I need,
they need to, um, they need to abide by.
So this morning the VIX was like above, I think it was at $35.
What was the VIX at this morning?
Yeah, the VIX was $35.
That's crazy.
You can't have that much risk in the market as a fund manager when the VIX is at $35.
The fund managers can't be like, you know what guys, it'll come back, right?
They're going to be people blowing up their phone saying like what's happening on my money am
i losing all my money i don't want to lose my money sell everything whatever they gotta they
gotta talk to the clients they have risk parameters they gotta sign by this it's not exactly the
market where fund managers can be like all in right as retail investors we have that privilege
to do that sort of thing but fund managers can can't do that. They have to abide by certain policies. So when the VIX is at 35, they have to sell stuff, especially people who are
margin call. They have to sell stuff to cover the margin requirement. And this morning, all of them
were probably screwed or they were thinking they were screwed. And then you get today after Trump
says that the war is going to be over soon after he just said the other day
or yesterday that the war is going to last. He doesn't know how long the war is going to last
for. Like, I guess that's a taco. That's a taco situation, but don't get chopped up back and
forth. This like pre prematurely short of the market is going to put you in this scenario.
We're in right now, right? We haven't really had a sustained correction yet.
In fact, we haven't even had a correction since April.
And even then, we haven't had more than a 5% plus drawdown on a closing basis.
I think we were more than 5% at last night's lows.
Actually, let me bring this up real quick, and then we're going to close this one out.
If I look over here, if I go from all the way up here to all-time high,
all the way down here, yeah, we were only down 5%, but it felt like the world was falling off
a cliff. The Qs were a lot worse though. The Qs were definitely a lot worse. So if the Qs all-time high was over here as low as here, 7% drawdown.
So a little bit worse, but the Qs are definitely recovering quite a bit more than the SPY on its own.
Even XBI is coming back.
Oh, wow.
This had the biggest recovery today because IWM was down a lot.
Yeah, that's a 4% swing right there.
IWM from its all-time high was all the way up here.
It's down almost 10%.
So, I mean, IWM is definitely coming back,
and that one is actually outperforming the Qs right now,
which is very surprising to see.
So, yeah, guys, we will see what happens with this market.
I mean, I'm just going to hold.
Like, what else is there to do?
There's really nothing else you can do here.
Yeah, there was some dips in some software stocks,
but besides that, like semiconductors
were still like very high up there. I didn't really want to buy the dip in those because
what if we were to go lower? You know, semiconductors would have a little bit more
room to go down given that a lot of it's very far extended, but at least things kind of came
back a little bit to reality in the last few weeks. So things were better priced, but still,
in the last few weeks. So things were better priced, but still, I mean, I, it's, it's hard
to be bullish, like in the very near term when we still have a lot of uncertainties on the table,
but it is nice to see when the market recovers more than a few moving averages. We're going to
close over here right at the 20 day moving average on the queues. So we'll see what happens to that
one. Let's go ahead and check out something here real quick yeah we don't have really have any earnings after hours today
life meds reporting today casey's reporting today hpe yeah nothing too crazy um tomorrow's gonna be
a big one uh tomorrow oracle's reporting after hours it's gonna be a big market mover and oracle
right now is that still three percent down oh it's only 1% down. So, I mean, best of luck to Oracle.
Hope that one turns well.
But yeah, guys, thank you for tuning in.
Really appreciate you.
I did have the public.com window open before us.
If you want to check out, open up the public account.
You can use a promo code on the Wolf page.
Also, Fiscally, in case you want to check that one out, guys.
But really appreciate you.
Thanks for coming by.
Hopefully, the voice won't be as raspy tomorrow. It'll be a lot better. Um, if not, uh, your boy
is still going to be here. All right. So take care of guys. Have a good one.
