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Oil Volatility, Petrodollar & Europe’s Energy Security (Wolf EU) 🇪🇺
Recorded: March 19, 2026 Duration: 1:23:31Space Recording
Full Transcription
Thank you. Thank you. Good afternoon, everyone. Welcome back to the Wolf EU show where we cover all things
market in the European and the US region as well and globally. So my name is Eva, your
host and my lovely co-host Alex Tick. How are you doing today?
Good morning. Alex Tick, actually. You're starting to get it right.
I know. It's really hard not to say Trader Alex, as I used to.
So we're just waiting for a couple more guests to trickle in.
We have some incredible guests, very notable today.
And I am so appreciative for them taking their time today for
covering the biggest elephant in the room, unfortunately, is the oil and gas volatility.
And of course, the war with Iran, how that affects your portfolio, what you can look out for,
how you can hedge your risk potentially as well. So lots to think about as an investor.
hedge your risk potentially as well. So lots to think about as an investor. I think currently
what we've got US Brent oil trading here at $113 this morning. And then we have light crude oil
here consolidating on the fall at $96 or so. I would love to welcome back on stage is Dr. Anas.
Good morning to you. How are you doing? I'm doing great. Thank you. Good morning to everyone.
Lovely to have you back. And Valina, as always, lovely to hear from you. How are you doing today?
Hello, everyone. It's so great to see Dr. Lahaji actually in the space today, as we have been collaborating for such a long time
and it's always such a good energy to have such mind on oil and gas
and I'm looking forward to contributing to the geopolitical dimension.
Absolutely.
You guys have some of the most incredible expertise
and I thought it would be so great to have you both
here on the show today and of course lovely Sandeep here from our leverage shares how are
you doing this morning or afternoon hey everybody so very very well if you want to think about
content but yes this has been quite a week We were hoping that earlier in the week that this would continue to be sort of like a mid-intensity conflict.
But as we have seen with the news earlier today, tensions in the Middle East, specifically around gas and oil, have been ratcheting up with actions by both sides of the conflict.
Israel attacking this and attacking a gas field that is under Iranian control
and Iran retaliating with attacks on Qatar, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia.
So on oil refineries in Saudi Arabia and Kuwait and a gas gas refining plant in uh Qatar
so uh last week I had to on the leverage shares website I had predicted that uh oil will reach
150 dollars because we don't think that this is going to be a short-term conflict regardless of
what the Trump administration might be saying I that was picked up and was accepted all over europe in italian media specifically
quite prominently and i think i will have to write a new article saying that it's probably going to
go to 200. so grim tidings for everybody and there is some more impact coming from bans on exports of
produced products derived products from derived products from oil and gas
from China and India, which have gone into effect earlier this month,
earlier this week rather, I should say, which has some grim sort of outlook
for Europe specifically in terms of the availability of petrol.
availability of petrol so we can get into all of that as we go along yeah absolutely we definitely
So we can get into all of that as we go along.
need to address uh what this oil means for the for the world really not just europe um so obviously
we'll try and get as amicable as possible today's show but also very constructive politically
um just also bearing in mind you know it does have a lot of market implications. So that's what we're trying to focus on as well. So lots of great information
on energy pricing and what that would mean for you as well. I'd love to also welcome up on the
stage a new guest here is David. Welcome. How are you doing today? Thank you very much for inviting.
Absolutely. Yeah. So David, I've seen you on a host of other spaces as well.
So it'd be so great to have your perspectives on all of this as well.
Alex, would you like to kick us off?
Sure.
Well, this has obviously been a very, very interesting situation to follow for traders
traders because the market is all over the place.
because the market is all over the place.
And it's quite scary to consider a situation where oil prices would hit 150 or even 200
and how that would impact us.
And how is that going to change the political situation?
Are we going to see more reshoring going on in Europe?
This is all questions that will be interesting to follow
and see what our guests have to say about.
Yeah, so a couple of headlines we've had this morning.
I saw overnight the Qatar thing as well,
Iran attacking extensive damage at Qatar's Ras La Fan,
which obviously is affecting LNG complex, one of the core pillars of global gas supply.
So obviously covered from several major news head outlets there.
So Qatar officials report extensive structural and equipment damage as the Ras La Fan LNG hub
after Iranian missiles
and drone storage tanks loading jetties and associated infrastructure.
So this is forcing a halt to most of the exports.
Valena, what do you think about all this?
I would love your backdrop on the entire situation.
Where are we at? Are we heading into stage three of this as well?
So first and foremost, you have to differentiate.
There is the military dimension of what's going on on the ground,
which is still quite telling that we are in the escalatory phase of the war.
There is no exit scenario for the moment,
which in itself is affecting, of course, not only state behavior in the region and
beyond, but also markets. The second important point is that now that we are in this exploratory
phase, it's obvious that Iran is in a kind of mindset that entails, on the one hand,
all kind of risky behavior, as we've seen with the attacks on
energy infrastructure. Why? Because from Iranian position, the asymmetric warfare is the only way
how Iran has any chance of survival, any chance of sustaining the comprehensive Israeli-American war effort.
So militarily speaking, we have actually clear, let's say, clear superiority in technical terms.
In the air and also now in the second dimension, which is the naval.
But then again, the asymmetric strength that Iran has is,
on the one hand, through these attacks, not only on US assets in the region, but also on the Gulf
States, with the purpose to unleash cascading effects. And hurting those states would, I mean,
this is, I'm just explaining the Iranian rationale here, would kind of trigger a reaction on behalf of the United States,
as these are key strategic partners.
And, of course, inflicting the two economic pain is now what we are observing
in terms of cascading effects across the whole global economy.
And this is the third component that is, of course, the absolute, let's say, game changer in this situation.
And I myself was also speaking against it.
That is the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
Most of the analysts in the energy field, but also in the geopolitical field,
were considering the closure of the Strait of Hormuz as the absolute worst case scenario.
Not only for the region, but for the whole of the world.
This is where we are.
We are in a completely unknown scenario.
We do not know what the next day will bring.
What we know for sure is that every single day the war continues
is adding multiplicative effects to the global economy
and global trade for months to come.
Multiplicative effects for you to understand of the scale and scope what we saw during pandemic,
as well as to a certain extent during Russian war against Ukraine.
You remember weaponization of commodities, closing, blocking critical choke point for food and fertilizers.
Now we have a very different, very different scalability of this systemic shock.
I argue this is going to be the most comprehensive and most significant systemic shock to the whole world.
We've never seen this before.
We do not have a comparison base.
I think markets are starting to realize that,
but still are not catching up.
So prepare, fasten your seatbelts,
because it's going to be the most challenging period
for every one of us to not just analyze,
but navigate this period.
As I said, we are not talking anymore about weeks.
No matter which scenario for the war itself is going to manifest itself,
ideally, of course, some sort of coordinated effort
on behalf of those that are having a say.
United States, China, that was actually my hope
ahead of the summit. The summit is now actually being postponed. That's also actually a bad
signal for global geopolitics, because it means that even though that China and United States,
to a certain extent, are currently now short-. Actually, on the winning side, we have winners short term, which are obviously United States,
obviously also to a certain extent China, which has very, very large storage and has
been stockpiling actually for the last 10 plus years because it's serving a war economy.
Russia is on the winning side, but still, of course,
there are no winners in the long term if we consider what's happening
and if we consider that what I'm trying to kind of outline
in a very short way would really manifest.
And in that sense, the very fact that even those who are on the winning side
short-term are not eager and incentivized to collaborate
and to actually kind of pressure those who are directly involved
to come up with some sort of ceasefire,
to open, for instance, trade of hormones,
is already telling
you a lot how precarious the situation is. So even if we assume the best case, which would be,
let's say, in the next days, weeks, there would be some sort of ceasefire, again, the ramifications
of what's happening right now are going to stay with us for at least several months.
And this will bring us, of course, to a high price, high inflationary impact scenario.
Global recession, that tells you also a lot about the pricing scenario.
And in certain corners of the world, we will see revolutions, political turmoil and protests,
probably of the scale of what we saw with the Arab Spring back in 2011.
Even in the developed economies like Europe, where central banks and you see governments
will think that they have the fiscal and the monetary means
to tackle this kind of tsunami.
I call it, it's a systemic shock of tsunami
with many cascading waves that will be hitting us again
and again and again.
And even in developed economies like in Europe,
where they will be dealing with the stagflation scenario.
You see, I argue that central banks and governments are not prepared for what's coming because this is no longer the pandemic.
This is actually supply shock.
And you cannot fight the law of physics when, you know, basically all of us are in more or less the same situation.
So that's now probably the more systemic picture and we can go into details later.
Wow, incredible backdrop there, Valina. Thank you so much. I've got a few people trickling in.
PIQ, sweet Nat Nat, welcome back. How are you guys doing?
All good, all good. I'm live from the beer garden, so apologies if the quality of sound isn't great.
But, yeah, it's sunny in London, so, yeah,
I thought I'd just sit in the beer garden and chat to you guys
and listen to you very smart people.
Awesome, love that.
Yes, it is very sunny over here.
Dr. Arnas, I would love your take and perspective on all this situation.
How do you think about the pricing of oil as well?
Yes, thank you very much for the invitation and thank you, Valina, for the kind words.
I have several points to talk about.
The first one is this is a historic event. The impact will be felt for decades to come, and the effect is on various markets, not only oil and gas.
I'll explain that in a minute.
And there will be major impact on the direction of international trade.
As Valena mentioned, this is uncharted territory.
The tools we are using may not fit what needs to be fixed.
So this is a serious issue. Oil prices, by the way, the oil prices that matter
exceeded $173. So we are already way above $150.
And again, this is not only about oil and gas.
The impact is way wider.
I'm going to give you some examples here.
35% of the traded helium worldwide goes through the Hermormus trait, but most of it goes to Asia, which means that the 35%
is misleading because we have to look at Asia's dependence on Hormus trait.
The problem is, in general, you cannot make computer chips or semiconductors
without helium. So that industry got hit really hard. And when we talk about helium, let's remember the following. The largest
producer in the world of helium is the United States. 33% of the seaborne traded fertilizers
go through the Hermes Strait. But again, this is a misleading figure because Asia is heavily dependent on the Hormus
Strait, especially India. But even if you look at that percentage, it is misleading too. And the
reason why, because there are a large number of fertilizer plants within India that make fertilizers, various types of fertilizers, but they depend
heavily on gas and NGLs, that natural gas liquids that come from the Gulf.
So, in a sense, when it comes to fertilizers, India, for example, got hit on the imports
and got hit within the country.
Luckily for India, the leadership realized long time ago the importance of the agricultural
sector.
So they initiated or they have strategic reserves for fertilizers.
So they are good for this planting season.
They have two planting seasons.
They are good for this planting season.
But if this is going to drag on, then the next planting season is going to be a serious
problem. So now we have the
agricultural sector in Asia being hit. Then we have methanol. 32% of the traded methanol in the
world comes through the Gulf, and methanol is used in various industries and in the agricultural
sector. And one of the problems we have right now is, if you really
think about it, we lost all this oil from the Hermes Strait. So this is a golden opportunity
for biofuel. If you are a biofuel producer, basically, this is a golden opportunity. This
is where biofuel should expand and you make more money. And one of the largest producers of biofuel
is Indonesia. Malaysia is one of the largest producers too. The problem is you cannot make
biodiesel without methanol. And all of a sudden, the substitute, which is the biofuel, is going
down, making the problem worse. And then you talk about crude oil, for example. By the way,
the quoted number in the media that it's 20 percent is incorrect. The world dependence on
crude oil from hormones is 33 percent. One third of crude is coming from the Gulf.
And the other problem is NGLs, natural gas liquids.
Natural gas liquids are widely used in almost every industry you can imagine.
In fact, if you are sitting down and look at what you are wearing and what's around
you, you look at your your phone you look literally at
everything around you is made from ngls so you are hitting those industries so hard and if this
if this war is going to drag on for three four five months china basically right now is kind of
world protected i'll mention that in a minute minute because they knew about this long time ago
and they were well prepared.
But three, four months from now,
China basically is going to be one of the largest losers.
So in the medium term, China is going to lose a lot.
But the point I would like to make here on NGLs,
if there is no NGLs, there are no EVs.
End of story.
And then, of course, you have the LNG, you have aluminum, you have other things.
So the impact basically is widespread.
Several industries, whether you're talking about the industry or you talk about the agricultural sector, basically are being hit.
We have panic in the market, and that panic is wreaking havoc on everything.
And the first thing that the Trump administration, if they are really worried about high oil prices,
they need to at least reduce that panic, if not eliminate it at all. And here is why. Because
that panic is exacerbating the situation. For example, because of the panic, in the spot market, we've seen oil tankers and LNG carriers
exchanging hands several times and therefore exchanging destinations.
That means we are going to end up with more oil and LNG on water, not reaching their destinations,
and that exacerbates the shortages.
And then we are seeing hoarding, whether by the traders who are hoarding because they make more
money tomorrow, or we are seeing hoarding by those who depend heavily on oil or LNG.
For example, you talk about airlines, you talk about refiners, you talk about chemical industries.
So hoarding basically is exacerbating the situation.
Another issue that we have 17 countries so far, including China, that are prohibiting
or halting exports of petroleum products, making the situation is way worse.
And now the United States basically is thinking about it too.
So exacerbating the situation. Once you do it, you are just increasing the panic and prices will go even higher. And what's more interesting than everything I mentioned so far, that if you are
a refiner who have 2 million barrels in storage and you bought that oil at 60 and now oil is at 100,
you are better off literally selling that crude than refining it.
And that causes more shortages of petroleum products in the market.
I don't want to take much time, but I just want to mention a few things quickly.
As I mentioned, China knew about this in advance.
It was built, prepared.
It was storing everything that is storable, including oil, gas, coal, and all the other foodstuff and minerals, everything.
But this will last only for about three months.
After that, it will be a big problem.
The 12-day war in June basically taught China a big lesson.
We do have a big issue with crude quality that's been ignored by analysts and everyone
else.
If you look at the price differentials, they are going crazy, and this is going to get
even worse.
The winners, Trump and Putin for now, Brazil, Guyana, Australia, but of course, it's not
a net win.
For Australia, for example, we've seen problems with jet fuel shortages, etc.
The way you think about this crisis is the following.
Of course, you want to talk about the winners.
You talk about the losers.
The losers are the Gulf countries right now, the GCC Arab countries, India and Europe.
countries, India, and Europe. But the way you look at this one, either you look at this as Iran
and it's a nuclear problem, and that's it. Or you look at it as, okay, this is part of a big picture.
We have trade wars, we have sanctions, we have tariffs, we have Venezuela, we have the Panama
Canal, we have the Red Sea, the Swiss Canal, the Bab el-Mendib, and then we have Greenland.
So either you look at Iran within this big picture or you look at it alone, isolated.
And the reason why you have to make this distinction is because the impact is completely different.
If it is only Iran and nuclear, then this is a limited impact, mostly in the short run. If you are going to look at it as part of this global change of everything,
then the issue is way bigger and Iran is just a trigger.
If this is going to continue for a while and the war is not going to end,
we are going to end up with stagflation, as Verena said.
And the way to look at it here is the biggest beneficial to
everything you see is the United States. But yet, there will be a lot of pain. So there will be
inflation, there could be stagflation, etc. But the timeframe is different. And this is the main
point please pay attention to. The benefits are mostly now, medium term and long term.
The pain is short term.
Back to you.
Wow, incredible information.
So much to digest there from you, Dr. Arnas.
Really do appreciate that.
Just to paint a really quick picture for some of you guys,
the Asian nations obviously are most exposed, as he has explained.
So China, India, Japan, South Korea collectively import roughly over 50 percent of their oil through the Hormuz.
So, yeah, really interesting thoughts. PIQ, see your hand up there. We'd love to take a question.
Thank you, Eva, my darling. Firstly, I just wanted to say I'm assuming everyone on that's listening here already follow Anas and Valina.
If you don't, what are you doing with your lives? You must follow them.
They are fantastic, fantastic people to follow, especially in a world of X at the moment, social media, where there's so much crap being spouted.
These two are top of the top.
What I wanted to just quickly, more of a question for the floor is my way, because I'd rather listen to the smart people than myself.
more of a question for the floor is my way
because I'd rather listen to the smart people than myself.
I caveat with what I'm about to say
with the fact that I'm not a doomer for the dollar.
I'm quite foolish of the dollar, you know, maybe always.
I'm also anti-bricks and all this stuff.
So please don't conflate what I'm about to ask,
what I'm about to suggest with me saying the dollar is doomed.
That's not what I'm saying.
But, however, we do need to bring up the petrodollar because, you know, the reason the
petrodollar exists is because, you know, the US was going to provide security to Saudi,
to begin with, oil and gas infrastructure in return. The Saudis and then everyone else in
the region prices their exports in dollars. Now, obviously, we've had, you know, it's the petrodollar.
You can argue that it's been degraded slightly with India, China,
whatnot, coming up with other settlement processes,
especially on the back of Russia and Ukraine.
The next, obviously, then you've got this coming down the pipe again,
which is also going to add some pressure to the petrodollar standing.
I'm not saying it's the end of the petrodollar. Please don't think I'm saying that.
And then obviously overnight, we've had direct attacks on oil and gas infrastructure
from the people that are basically only pricing their stuff to export in dollars for this energy facility security.
Now, questions to the floor, and I guess it's more aimed at the geopolitics experts in the room.
This is more aimed at the geopolitical experts in the room.
At what point, if there is a point, do these Middle East exporting nations turn around to Trump and say, hold on a second.
We're pricing this in dollars for you. You get a lot of benefits out of the demand for dollars for this.
Where the hell is our security? You've got to protect our infrastructure at all costs.
I'm interested to see what people think.
Anas has already got his hand up,
so I'm either going to be told off for talking nonsense
or he's going to come up with a really good reply to me.
I'm hoping it's the latter.
But yeah, go Anas, go, go, go.
Go Anas, I would love that.
This idea of dollar for security is a myth.
There is not a single...
There we go, there we go. There is not a single evidence, hard evidence that exists,
that this agreement basically exists. I know this is being repeated so many times in so many books
and articles, et cetera, but I can tell you without any reservation that such agreement does not exist.
What we've seen basically is something, if you want to call it indirect, and I can go over the details of this.
I know this is not the time and we have limited time here, but I can tell you when Prince Fahd, who became king later on,
came in with a large delegation from all industries, from all leaders, et cetera, in Saudi Arabia,
came in in 1976 to the United States, signed six packages.
I mean, we are talking about billions of dollars of each.
But the whole idea was the following.
When the dollar was separated from gold, of course, the revenues of those countries, in real terms,
declined substantially. And it was a main concern for those nations, especially for OPEC nations.
And they really studied this hard for two years. And they produced a lot of research. Some of it
is public, some of it is not, etc. so the saudis basically said okay here is what i'm
going to do since the interest rate outside is almost zero the real interest rate is zero
and i'm going to export the oil i'm going to get dollars i'm not getting any returns out of the
savings that i have but they figure out that the best saving is to keep oil in the ground. So the substitute for petrodollars
is oil in the ground. So they started cutting production and the U.S. panicked. So they told
the Saudis, okay, here is what we can do. If you buy my treasuries, I will guarantee a positive income.
And that's the whole thing.
It has nothing to do.
No one talked about the dollar, etc.
But the point I would like to make here is forget about everything that happened in the past.
Let's talk about today.
Oil in the world is priced in dollar not because of a decision, simply because there is
no substitute. There are certain conditions for pricing oil in a currency. And one of the main
conditions basically is you have to have enough liquidity. And only the US dollar has that
liquidity. So by default, the dollar will be the currency that where you price oil in.
And then you have to have a currency that is relatively stable relative to other currencies.
That's why those who are talking about, oh, let's price it in Bitcoin.
No, it's not going to work.
You need something more stable than that.
And you need world acceptance for it until today even if you go to iran and you go to
the gangs that are in iran and you spread all kind of currencies in front of them tell them okay pick
up the currency that you i want you i want to pay you and they will choose the us dollar so the issue
here is even if you forget about all the politics of it, there is no other substitute.
The final comment on this is we have to distinguish between pricing oil in dollar and getting revenues in non-dollar.
These are completely two different things.
So I can price my oil.
Putin oil is priced in dollar.
Iranian oil is priced in dollar.
Every oil is priced in dollar.
But what they are
getting they are not getting dollars they are getting something else so there is kind of an
exchange rate here that's being used so the the someone might say well you are not not correct
and us because oil in china if you look at shanghai is in yuan. It's not priced in dollar. And therefore, Anas, you are wrong.
The fact is that price in Shanghai, if you adjust for quality and time and geographic
location, it is a mirror image of the dollar pricing in Dubai.
So oil is priced in dollar no matter what, but the revenues could be in any other currency.
Back to you.
Incredible.
So, Vilina, I saw your hand up.
Go first and then we'll go to Sandeep.
Yes, very shortly on the geopolitical side of the question.
So the base scenario is that you will be watching how countries will be operating in different tier of architectures.
Now, Dr. Al-Hadji already explained the U.S. architecture.
So short-term pain, but long-term gain.
Here it is about actually the way how to facilitate this architecture based on supplying chains,
how to facilitate this architecture based on supplying chains,
based on certain clientele, certain kind of networks of alliances, partnerships.
And for that to happen, you need to completely overhaul the current system
because it's no longer working for the US interests.
Now, on the other hand, you have also a manifestation of an alternative architecture, which is centered around China and Russia.
And of course, a lot of the Gulf states are currently in the gray zone.
This is the third tier of architecture.
These are countries that are middle powers because of geographic location, because of the access to critical raw materials, because of a certain
technology, you get the idea.
And these kind of middle powers are tolerated currently to operate between some of them
also as bridges between these two architectures while these two architectures are in the process
of being built up.
We are still in the beginning of a major systemic transformation
of the whole system.
It will affect financial and monetary affairs.
It will affect supply chains.
It will affect technological domain.
It will affect economy, trade.
You get it.
Everything.
And as we are in this process right now, yes, the so-called trend towards the
dollarization is being manifested not necessarily as an introduction of a new global currency,
because that's not the point here. The point is to increase, and Dr. Lahadji actually explained
that to you, to increase the share of national currencies-based trade,
which is the purpose right now coming from China and Russia.
If you take a look at the direct volume between these two countries, it's already 90% on behalf of Russia.
Russia has gotten rid of its dollars and euros because of the comprehensive sanctions being the most sanctioned country in the world.
And here is the trick, because the second architecture is operating as a shadow financial, monetary, trade, raw materials-based architecture.
So a lot of the things that are happening are happening actually,
are being facilitated with a hub being in China,
which is the epicenter of,
let's say, a counter block.
If you think of the Cold War,
take this example of the Dragon Bear
as a new kind of superpower center,
centered around also raw materials,
these kind of things.
So here is the trick to understand that lack of proof is not proof of lack. This is a reality, similarly to what's happening in quantum physics,
just because it's no longer physics and you need all these kind of observation trials,
It's no longer physics and you need all these kind of observation trials, which you will not get because two things can be simultaneously correct.
And this is where we are.
We are in this bifurcation model right now.
These shadow networks are operating.
Russia has perfected them, has learned a lot from Iran.
And why Dr. Al-Hadji was talking
about the big picture, it's really important for you to decide with which kind of framework
you want to approach the world. You can approach the world as a trader or investor or, you know,
business CEO from the perspective of a granular, tactical, and operational framework
saying, okay, right now what's happening in Iran?
There is no real plan behind it.
It's all tactical and nobody understands what's happening.
Okay, but you can also use the framework what Dr. Ahadji was alluding to,
namely that there is a bigger plan.
Oh, is it just me or Vilina just went off?
I don't hear her.
Yeah, I think we just lost her internet.
Vilina, if you just want to drop off and rejoin, then you can.
Can I just quickly say thank you to Anas for putting me straight on that?
Very, very good response.
And I was hoping he was going to answer and I'm glad he did.
There is actually a question from the crowd.
And of course, you guys in the listeners, please do drop your questions. There's a question for Dr. Anas.
What's your thoughts on OPEC's future given recent developments in Venezuela and Arabian Gulf?
That's from Shipwrecked.
Of course, OPEC as an organization has headquarters in Vienna and it is 12 countries.
But when you look at the management of the oil market, and I emphasize the word here
management because there is a big mistake about natural resources in general.
And the advice to everyone is to remember that we studied economics in college 101.
But the economics of natural resources is completely different from economics 101.
And most people, especially in the media, kind of confuse the two.
So the management is coming from OPEC+.
And those who are worried about those changes that happened in Venezuela or Iran, let me remind you of the following.
Iraq is an OPEC member.
Iran is an OPEC member.
Kuwait is an OPEC member.
Iraq fought with Iran over a war for eight years.
Iraq invaded Kuwait.
And we had many problems among the countries themselves, especially with Libya, et cetera.
So we've seen those earthquakes within OPEC before.
Even within OPEC plus, we've seen it with Saudi Arabia on March 7, 2020, in Saudi Arabia
and Russia.
So those earthquakes basically happened before, and it did not break the organization.
In fact, despite the eight-year war, the representatives of Iraq and Iran were meeting in Vienna, in OPEC meetings,
and the same thing with Kuwait and Iraq.
So we are not expecting any breakdown of OPEC as a result.
Thank you so much for answering that question.
Another question from the crowd, from Qasem al-Ali.
Is oil being underpriced by financial markets, quote-unquote paper,
crude trades near $100, while physical barrels are changing hands at $130, $170,
and refined products are above $200. Are markets mispricing reality, or is this gap about to close?
No, this is, again, this is normal in such circumstances.
I mentioned panic and I mentioned the crude quality.
In addition to that, of course, we have the geographic location.
So you add all those three together, what we are seeing in the market is normal because
of those factors.
The fact is everyone is confused, including me and all traders. If any single
trader will say they know exactly what's happening, probably they don't know what's going on.
I think all of us are in uncharted territory and we are just kind of pausing and trying to
see what's going on, trying to make the wisest conclusion that we can get and we could be completely wrong.
Go on.
Sorry, just quickly before Sandeep cuts in.
Sorry, Sandeep, for interrupting.
Just one thing to make clear as well, and I know Valina and Dr. Anas have already mentioned this,
but really need to ram it, especially to people that maybe are not too up to speed on crude markets or energy markets.
Not all crude is created equal.
That's why there's different, you know, it in different places you know it's different grades it's you
know it's shipped to different regions so when you see a headline number of like you know crude is
trading 110 the reason why different barrels are charging different amounts is because of the
desire and the need for those specific types of barrels and whatnot so it's very misleading when
the media says oil is trading at this because
there's far more to it on a normal day you know maybe that that kind of difference between the
different grades doesn't matter so much you know it's not so much in the media and whatnot but in
times like this when there are specific blends there are specific grades there's specific ports
of origin and stuff that are really impacted and others aren't that's when the differentials between
these grades really blows out and that's like what we're seeing between Oman and Brent and WTI so just one thing
to bear in mind that when you see something in the paper like crude is trading this that's very
very misleading thank you for clarifying that yeah very important Sandeep you've been having
your hand up the longest so we'd love for you to speak yeah just a couple of things I wanted to mention was that uh the
about the petro yuan contract as they mentioned as someone brought up as when China is executing
its trades and ostensibly saying that it is doing it in its domestic currency again the petro yuan
is a pet currency the yuan is a pet currency in India is, it's a pet currency. It is not a free-floating currency.
Secondly, I don't think anybody wants to replace the US dollar per se when countries are talking about carrying out their trade in their native currencies.
They're also taking the fact that accruing US dollars implies a certain level of cost,
extra cost that they have to pay in order to pay for petroleum oil contracts.
They would prefer to pay it out in their currencies
because that has an impact on their M2, their free money supply.
So the US dollar has benefited from having so much money
being held by the GCC in dollar.
Fine, that's fine.
But again, for over 10 years now, GCC countries have also been
promoting the idea that they should be executing trades with different countries in their currencies,
primarily because they do business with many, many countries all over the world, particularly
they're interested in doing it in China and India. Again, there's not going to be a whole lot of
arbitrage between a US petrodollar contract and shall we call it a petro rupee contract or a petroyuan contract if there are some arbitrage opportunities
they'll probably vanish within milliseconds uh far quicker than any trader can ever jump in to do
but basically the idea is that it's it's good for it's good for trading relationships and it is good for managing the M2 supply and managing your own
forex every country for them to be able to manage forex reserves another thing that I want to put
up is that the GCC countries have done something with the dollars that they have accrued till date
they own approximately 1 to 1.4 trillion dollars worth of market assets in the US and in Europe, 75% of which is held in equities.
So, the US stock market in particular has been a beneficiary of these dollars.
Again, I'm not saying that if they did not accrue a whole lot of rupees that they would
not turn it into dollars and then invest in the US markets.
That's not true.
The US is the most overbought market in the entire equity universe and that is a fact. That is fine. But essentially
this is not a zero-sum game where one country wins and the other country loses. It's basically
a very fundamental question about end tools, supplies and not incurring an extra cost when it comes to
executing these trades.
Again, I don't think of it as a huge deal
here. But
geopolitically, if you're talking about things like OPEC,
I think at least when it comes to India, we might
see India sort of
slipping away farther from the West
now.
I think we're going to be a little more
friendly with Russia again.
Again, Russia and India's relationship goes to three epochs.
Through the Russian Empire when Russian noblemen came and learned about India's spiritualism,
independent India versus the Soviet Union which was an intense technical collaboration while India still remained independent,
and post-Soviet Russia's relationship with india has been more nuanced
uh this 30-day waiver that uh america is applying it we i predict that i'm estimating or predicting
that india will probably laugh it off and say i'm going to continue buying wherever i see it from
in fact foreign minister jay shankar has said that repeatedly that they will still be independent
minded even in the munich security conference that was recently he said that we are going to continue being independent minded about
this this matter uh the reason why we got hit with this was because as dr anas mentioned
while we are purchasing russian oil we still purchase 50 from gcc countries
we have always purchased 50 from gcc countries countries Russia essentially filled in the gap that Iran
left behind because a fifth of our oil used to come from Iran and because of sanctions we were
having difficulties and when the Russo-Ukrainian war started we sort of filled that gap up and we
restored the other GCC countries to their levels so now uh if we going forward if if oil prices remain high we will continue to access the special for
discount premium discount formulas from russian companies that we had in the past and will
continue to do so uh as of right now for example petrol prices at the gas firm has not risen in
india uh more than one or two one or two percent i think and i guess we'll keep it that way for a
long time to come.
The United States needs to be cognizant of the fact, and they used to be cognizant of the fact
that we care about our people
more so than we care about other
people's impressions of us.
So if we have to take
care of our domestic needs, we'll do that
first. We don't have an export engine
like China does. China walks
a tighter rope than india does
because 90 of our growth in the economy and of our stock market comes from domestic investors
and domestic consumption so we've always have to trade this fine line here and we will continue to
so again that's going to probably blow up a whole lot of trade talks, treaties. India is made a member of the security alliance in the Indo-Pacific area known as Quad.
Given the Trump administration proclivities, it'll probably say, in that case, you're out.
Okay, if you say so.
It doesn't take away the fact that we'll continue to pursue our own path.
Thank you for your thoughts there.
I see your hand up there, David, first, and then we'll come to Dr. Anas.
Yeah, just something on retail, getting involved in oil.
I personally have never seen a profitable person trading an oil CFD before out of retail brokers.
Now, futures might be different, but I think those commodities contracts are possibly the highest revenue generating contract out of any
that an FX and CFD broker might offer out. I think it's definitely not a market that retail
should really be operating in outside of buying energy companies and holding energy stocks,
purely because I think commodities markets are so much
more opaque than in terms of information flow um and access to information than any other market
i think probably ryan can attest to that um and and secondly uh
look at looking at professional uh oil and gas traders and that they are some of the most mental,
most insane participants in the trading realm. They know their markets so, so deeply,
but also probably have a screw or two loose. There's, there's many, um, David, David,
stop looking at me. Yeah. What are you talking about?
What?
It's the truth.
Stop staring at me.
Right, I'm going back to my ADHD and Ritalin.
But it's true.
You know, the brokers are all insane.
The traders themselves are relatively insane as well. And it takes, I think, a different type of person to operate in those markets.
Firstly, down to the complexity, but also down to the intensity. During times like this,
where there's a real volatility spike, the market is going in so many different places. And as previously mentioned by someone else as well, the different blends, different types of oil,
jet oil, heating oil, you know, nat gas all going off at the same time. It's
very, very difficult to understand where that market is going at any one point. So I think
full credit to the energy guys because they're insane and probably, you know, the top guys
in terms of knowing their respective domains.
Absolutely. Please do give all of our guests here a follow. They have absolutely incredible
research and they work so hard on this, especially in a market where it's very noisy.
Dr. Arnas, I see your hand up there. We love your perspective.
Thank you. I would like to comment on what we've heard in the last 15 minutes.
Let's talk about Trump's waiver for India. The waiver basically
was literally cosmetic, but it did benefit Putin significantly. And the reason why, because
we've seen, despite the fact that we've seen major decline in India's imports from Russia trying to please Trump and get that trade agreement.
We've seen basically ships carrying Russian oral going near the waters in Oman
and literally sneaking at night to India refineries.
And by the second day, we'll see them empty, basically going back to Russia. So the India refineries basically been playing second day we'll see them empty basically going back to Russia so the India
refineries basically been playing that game no matter what whether they have a waiver or not
but ironically and this is one of the unintended consequences uh Trump basically thought if he
gives them a waiver basically he will show that he is managing that but by giving the waiver to
Russian oil that means he allowed other countries to buy it.
So the oil did not go to India, which was intended to India.
So the Indian refiners basically ended up, it took them like five days, six days to figure out what's going on.
So they had to pay the high price to get their Indian oil to Russian oil.
So Russian oil is going to India right now, but at a very high price.
And where the irony? The irony is India was paying about $45 for that oil. Now they are paying more than double that for exactly the same oil. On the currencies, we have agreements
among various countries, especially in Central Asia with
China and Russia and Turkey on trading local currencies, but the experience was extremely
bad.
And here is why.
Think about it.
If you look at the agreement and you follow from the date of the agreement until now,
you see, for example, the collapse of the Turkish currency.
So who is going to trade in a collapsing currency?
Look at the India ruby. It's exactly the same story. So the experience with local currencies
was really bad experience. The other issue related to crude quality, in today's daily
energy report, which we are going to send to clients at noon, we have a section where we have a chart and explaining it.
The problem is when it comes to crude quality is about almost 6.8 million barrels a day.
That's about 7 million almost.
7 million barrels a day is sour, medium sour.
a day is sour, medium sour. The United States shale is light sweet and most of US exports
basically are light sweet. So it cannot compensate. The only compensation in terms of quality basically
would be the Russian crude, but Russia cannot increase production. So there is no substitute,
period. That's why we see Oman crude, which is medium-sour, basically, it's a marker going through the roof to $173 because there is no replacement.
The issue of jet fuel, one of the problems we have right now is, yes, we lost, if you look at jet fuel, traded jet fuel worldwide, we lost half of it, literally half of it.
And the airline industry throughout the world is going to suffer, of course, different regional impact.
But we've already seen some of the places, especially Australia, basically having serious problems with that.
What is the problem?
Even if we, there are two problems here.
The first one is not all of that is coming out of hormones.
It came out of that panic when countries like China halted exports of jet fuel.
So that part of the, almost half of the jet fuel that's being cut was coming from countries that have nothing to do in the Middle East at all.
It's coming from countries that have nothing to do in the Middle East at all.
It came from other places, and that's why we are having serious problems with jet fuel.
We do have an LPG problem that liquefied petroleum gases in India.
And people are saying, and please pay attention to this because this is extremely important distinction.
People are blaming Hormuz Trait, blaming the war, blaming all of this because India was not getting the LPG.
But remember the following.
Most of that LPG comes from Saudi Arabia.
And the plan that made that LPG was shut down a week before the war.
that made that LPG was shut down a week before the war. So India was going to suffer from LPG
problems even without the closure of the Hormuz Strait. And the problem is there is no substitute.
And the reason why there is no substitute, because the LPG that India imports and need is very heavy on butane.
And any LPG that is heavy on butane comes from refineries, does not come from gas wells.
What the U.S. exports and what Russia exports in terms of LPG is very light on butane.
And that's why India got stuck. Again, even without the problems of
Hermos Strait, they would have the problem because the plant in Saudi Arabia was closed.
Back to you.
Incredible information there. I would love to invite on stage here a very, very special guest,
Gary Cardone. Good morning to you. How are you doing?
Gary Cardone, good morning to you.
How are you doing?
Good morning to everyone.
Thank you for having me.
Honest question, how long do you think this is going to last, my friend?
We've been in this space a long, long time.
I didn't think we would be here today.
I'm stunned it's lasted, what, now three weeks?
Do you have any sense of, as time goes on, how more painful does this get?
You know, a couple weeks out, a couple months out.
Okay, any way you look at it, any way you look at it, it will take time.
Here is why.
The end of the war today does not end the crisis today.
does not end the crisis today.
After the damage that we've seen yesterday in Qatar
and the attacks on Saudi infrastructure and others,
we were talking about to clear all the ships in the Gulf,
we need about two weeks.
That assuming, of course, the insurance fiasco will be sold.
And after that, to bring back production to normal levels,
we needed about two months.
After the attacks on infrastructure yesterday,
it's going to take way longer.
For LNG, it might take up to a year.
So even if the war ends today,
we still have problems for months to come.
And if this war drags on, like we mentioned earlier,
when I said we here, I'm talking about Valina and myself,
since both of us mentioned the same idea.
If we end up with stagflation worldwide,
then we have a collapse in demand,
and that collapse in demand basically is going to
kind of make prices decline. They are talking today about the Trump
administration probably banning exports of crude. It's a crazy idea, it's a logical
idea, it does not make any sense, the impact is extremely negative. If they do
that we don't know.
Of course, there are a lot of crazy things going on. But between those ideas that are
causing another side of panic and between the fear of stagflation, I think we are going
to pay a very heavy price, all of us.
Yeah, absolutely.
It's really crucial that we really position ourselves correctly in all this.
So really general question for the floor, really.
From a trading perspective, what hedging or positioning, even framework strategies that you have seen that would work well in the past sort of commodity shocks or involving geopolitical energy risks. So for retail and institutional investors, I guess, today, what practical
moves make sense amid the current volatility in NatGas as well?
Dr. Ernest.
Sorry, I'm talking too much today. But first of all, we are bullish on LNG and we are bullish on all LNG names in the United States. We are bullish on coal and all the coal companies worldwide. I think the biggest winner out of this is coal. And we are seeing companies in the United States and Canada hedging at whatever they can get out of this increase in prices.
So that's what I know because my focus is energy.
So that's my side.
Awesome. Love that. Cam, I see a hand up there.
This might sound a bit counterproductive,
but especially looking towards the retail sector.
If you listen in to the morning blast of PIQ and Michael Brown,
you may hear this, you know, we can't give financial advice, but the best advice we can
give if you're a retail trader is potentially don't trade at all, take risk off the table
entirely. And if you're new to these markets, do you need to take this risk? We're in unprecedented
times at the moment. Sometimes the best strategy will be for you to just sit out, take some notes,
there's lots to learn about how these markets are moving but if you're a retail trader do you need to
really get involved in these markets for the first time uh yeah that's that's probably going to be my
two cents yeah some very you know good advice there i would say if you don't know what you're
doing don't get involved at all david would we love your perspective. I see your hand up there too.
Thank you. I was just coming back to the question that Gary proposed as regards how long are we looking at this? My reference would be because I've been,
let's just say, studying the Ukraine, Russian-Ukraine issue for the last couple of years,
is referring back to what the Deputy Prime Minister of Russia just said 48 hours ago. He said that
what we are looking at here is something we have not seen in over 50 years.
Indeed, he added to that something that even 50 years ago, there is no comparison.
And if you look at what happened 50 years ago, none of us, bar myself and maybe one other here, were around at that time in 1973,
time in 1973 was the fact that we had 60 million barrels a day being produced and we lost seven
seven percent of the overall global trade it caused a 300 increase in the price of a barrel
of oil from three dollars seventy to just over twelve and even after 1975 it never went back
down again what I refer to what the Russians are talking about, analysts there are discussing.
And I was in business in Qatar and China for many years,
but 15 years ago.
And I've been referring back to those people,
some of them who are involved in the energy trade.
Primarily, very, very close to what Anas was saying,
that we are looking at least one year,
even if it stops today.
However, the military situation is not going to stop year, even if it stops today. However,
the military situation is not going to stop today, not going to stop in a month,
is not going to stop in three months. A lot of analysts in Russia are saying that this is a very much a long-term issue that's going to happen with Iran because they are still proposing
the same conditions of a reverse unconditional surrender upon Israel and the United States,
as in the removal of all military bases. Now, Pentagon just stood up yesterday and asked for
200 billion to keep committing to this war. This is not going to stop within the next, within 2026.
Iran has the capability to keep this war going at the level that it's currently doing without even engaging one man on the ground, one tank, one artillery piece, nothing.
They cannot be taken by military air power, no, and never before in history has that happened.
And indeed, some of the main and top generals, including the head of the US Air Force, has said this is not going to work.
I mean, I'm just paraphrasing it, but that's what he insinuated in a summary there recently.
So according to the Russians and indeed some members of, let's just say the Chinese community
that I do talk with, is that there is no way that Iran will be allowed to fail by Russia and China.
Whatever you may think of Iran's capability, standing behind them is number two and three.
I'll leave that favoritism to the states, still calling them number one.
My personal belief is that they are not.
The number two and three military powers in the world are not going to leave Iran fail under the flag of Israel and or America.
And that is simply it.
So we are looking here
at major problems. So in relation to Russia, Gazprom, which has voiced 170 to actually a 200
plus barrel within the next six to eight weeks, is currently ramping up processes from Western Russia facilities all the way to Kamchatka.
There's negotiations going in currently for new oil contracts and supplies.
And because of the four-year war in Ukraine, there has been, I wouldn't say behind the scenes,
but it is widely accepted, that Russia has been ramping up productivity and tonnage to be used per day within the Russian Isle and gas services section,
including the acquisition of contracts for supply, as they are able to do now of extra ships for LNG.
So what we are seeing that one advisor stated yesterday that Russia is going to be a benefit of this
from at least $200 million a day to $500 million plus by the end of the year.
And yes, they are looking at long-term projections on this.
So Gary's answer is this is going to extend into 2027.
And we are about to see something that would be in comparison to the 1929 depression, but on a much, much greater effect.
comparison to the 1929 depression but on a much much greater effect that is not negativity that's
just common sense to see that in 1973 when the first oil crisis happened and then the second one
79 it wasn't until the middle 80s that my country Ireland and England started to come out of it so
it took 12 to 14 years before we started to progress upward. And this is going to be much worse because we now depend a hell of a lot more,
as Anas said, that if you sit in your room now,
almost everything around you is a product of what comes out of the ground.
And we are in trouble.
I do live in Russia most of the time,
and I see what is happening here in respect of the Russian-Ukraine war.
But the benefit to Russia, and As, I agree with you again, the benefit to Russia is off the charts.
I do not believe for a second there is any benefit to the US of A in this.
With $39 trillion in debt, with borrowing to pay your interest payments, with another $3.5 trillion this year and extra debt going on nobody wanting
to buy your debt i see that america having possibly the greatest failure second only to europe which
is not too far away from a seismic financial downfall thank you very much wolf incredible
information dead thank you so much david nat nat see your hand up first and then we'll come back
to vilina because i also have a question for you as well yes thank you so much for having me eva great great conversation
another fantastic space hosted by you guys um in in regards to traders i think you know what
eva hold my straitjacket yeah based on the comment that was made earlier with the traders being mental it's not completely
out of the you know out of the norm it's not all the way wrong but we can definitely profit on some
on what we're seeing right i am a big uh proponent and i know not everyone's like this and it's fine
but in reference to technical analysis in december we were on one of the Wolf Bitcoin spaces.
And one thing that we do is that we look at charts, we dive into the charts.
And I noticed the USO chart that was getting ready, that seemed to be getting ready for an aggressive move to the upside we I did not know
that it was going to be war related um right but we did position ourselves based on what we were
seeing in the chart it's based off technical analysis we positioned ourselves in oil in US
so pretty early we got into crude pretty early So we're able to profit off the move
to the upside. And recently, we were looking into the natural gas chart. And while natural gas can
be seen as super volatile, there is an opportunity there, right? So we were able to position ourselves
in the natural gas sector as well. So I 100% agree with Dr. Anast. I think he
hit the nail on the head and as well as Valina. Everyone here has had an amazing take. But if
you're someone that's new and you're looking to trade the markets, this volatility is insane.
Sometimes the best position is no position, especially if you don't know exactly where to
find your footing here. But if you are interested and you do have some kind of experience trading this volatility
and you're looking to hedge, one thing that has worked for me time and time again
and over decades has been kind of just taking advantage of the VIX, V-I-X, the volatility indicator.
I think positioning yourself there can make for a great
hedge. Like example, in April, when we saw the tariff crash, right? VIX wicked really high up to
60 and the calls paid beautifully, right? Every time we see some kind of volatility in the markets,
I think positioning ourselves accordingly and having a position in the VIX
can help someone maintain their portfolio and help the portfolio keep some kind of balance,
but also profit off the volatility. I just wanted to add that.
I think that's actually a great hedge for risk if you do have portfolio exposed to the market in a certain volatility time for sure
I've also had a DM question coming in for Valena as well I know we spoke about it briefly this
earlier in the show is in a stagflation scenario triggered by all these prolonged energy disruptions
how might investors reposition themselves as well? Maybe real world assets,
commodities, or whatever perspectives have you, Valina?
I guess, sorry for the interruption prior to that. Very shortly, maybe just according to my
own skin in the game, because most of the geopolitical pieces that I've been presenting to the audience
are also linked to personal skin in the game.
So I've actually invested in all of these,
in all of these pieces.
And when it comes to energy,
just to give you a few, maybe a few names,
what my skin in the game has been.
I'm not a trader, but I'm a holder
and certainly no financial advice here.
Just to share a few names,
I just looked at my portfolio.
And, you know, long-term,
that wouldn't be surprising, I think,
after the introduction,
long-term oil gas holder
as well as energy infrastructure.
So along the whole energy infrastructure, we've discussed in another space already,
long-term holder of Siemens Energy, for instance.
But, you know, when it comes to oil gas specifically,
I think your connection is gone there.
Can't hear you.
Was it just me?
I'm looking for, I think.
You're back.
Yeah.
Yeah.
Sorry.
It's just because of incoming calls all of the time.
They are.
They love you so much.
That's why.
Sorry.
Sorry for that.
Really.
Can you hear me now?
Yes, you're fine.
Yeah, sorry, really.
Go ahead.
So go ahead, okay.
So because I'm hearing now my,
I hear my voice in the background right now.
Now it's okay?
It's okay, yeah.
On the oil side, I have, for instance, only and solely North American
and actually Alliance-based stocks.
Atabasca Oil, Long Holding, Position,
ConocoPhillips, Davin Energy.
And I've also bought a great share
just on the first day when the crisis hit,
20 days ago of Equinor,
because Equinor is going to capitalize on the energy crisis.
Awesome insights there. Yeah, I think the real question is, and I do have to read a very quick
disclaimer, of course, just as a reminder, nothing we share in this space is professional financial
advice. Exactly.
Purely for educational purposes, to help all you listeners to learn and do your own research.
And investors should always carefully consider a fund's investment objective risk charges and
expenses before investing. And a fund's prospectus summary and prospectus contain all this information
about that through income shares, ETPs from lever shares or any free funds key information document.
And please visit their website, incomeshares.com.
And a fund's prospectus and key information document
should always be read carefully before investing.
Sorry, did you want to continue?
I know you wanted to elaborate more on that.
Yes, on the circulation scenario, you need to also capitalize.
Now, I'm being based in Europe, obviously, also on the fiscal measures
that will be spent on, obviously, re-industrialization and defense sector.
Now, I myself am not invested in defense for the sake of principles
because I deal also with defense companies,
so I have zero stock in defense sector out of principle,
but this will be certainly sectors
that will capitalize in the short term,
given the pressure coming on behalf of European states
to actually kind of influence or let's say exercise impact on the cascading
effects.
So we will see pressure to diversify also in the gas sector for obvious reasons.
So there will be, of course, a lot of talk about nuclear, as I already said, and energy infrastructure in general.
So you take upstream, downstream, so the whole scalability of energy infrastructure,
specifically energy and nuclear, I think, are going to be interesting also in the short term.
Yeah, absolutely. Great insights there from all the guest panels. Please do give them all a follow. That's pretty much all the time we have for, I'm afraid, for today. Any last remarks from any of the panels from today? I know it's a very crucial time right now on the planet. Yes, Dr. Anas, we'd love to hear your thoughts.
Yes, Dr. Anas, we'd love to hear your thoughts.
Yes, I just want advice to everyone.
When there is a war like this and a lot of chaos and a lot of panic,
please be careful with all the mainstream media and whatever stories you hear.
This is important because there were a lot of fake news, misinformation, etc.
So be careful with it.
And I would like to remind you that oil and gas are flammable materials. And if there is an
explosion of only one tank, fire and smoke will be up in the air for more than 300 feet. And
everyone can see it from far away, is going to take pictures and put it on social media.
That does not mean anything more than one tank being burnt.
It's not a whole refinery.
It's not a whole complex.
So please be careful with whatever you read in the media.
We almost on daily basis, we debunk at least two to three stories in the Daily Energy Report.
report, they are completely fake. So please be careful with that. The last point is for
They are completely fake.
So please be careful with that.
those who followed me today, please note that I do tweet a lot of things in Arabic. And
Twitter has a function, a translate function. Most of the stuff I tweet in Arabic or retweet,
they don't have or the information does not exist anywhere else. So please use the translate
function to benefit from
it. Thank you. Fantastic as always. Yes, I do enjoy reading your posts a lot there. Thank you so much
for your contribution to the entire community. Gary, any last remarks? I know you have a lot of
involvement in the natural gas world as well. Well, I think everybody should just be thinking about peace because war and death and mayhem and chaos is not good for this planet.
So if everybody could just take 10 seconds out to throw some peace out to the world, I think that's probably the best investment I can make today.
Absolutely.
1000%. Thank you. Absolutely. One thousand percent. I always questioned is what if we just stop all this conflict between these silly politics and, you know, the big boy games?
What if we all work together as a whole planet? What would happen to the entire globe?
I think very drastic changes for the positive. I just I just think it could be a, you know, more business, a more diplomatic take on that.
a more diplomatic take on that. Sandeep, any last words from you?
Sandeep, any last words from you?
Yeah, so I will say that yes, we are of the opinion that this will go on for a while and how
the combatants and the people, the regions affected will navigate this is very much up in the air.
For example, we just heard that Iran is allowing certain ships to go through but uh
insurers are not willing to insure them so certain state-owned entities in china russia and india have
been able to do this but not everybody so for example that is a piece of nuance that someone
has to look into when you're considering what is actually moving through these regions. I would say geopolitically, this might be the kiboshing of approximately 25 years of effort from the West
in sort of trying to pull India away from this giant China-Russia-India axis that is frequently spoken of,
but it doesn't actually exist.
For example, China and India don't get along on all matters,, China and India don't get along on all matters and China and Russia don't
get along on all matters, but there are some common interests which they capitalize on
fully and have been holding back because of other commitments.
I think India was hoping for the longest time that the West would turn out to be a stable
sort of partner. But this current situation says that it needs to continue pursuing its standard doctrine of strategic autonomy even further.
So over the long term, I'll probably be bullish on Indian instruments because strategic autonomy economically has turned out or for market performance wise has turned out to be very good for equities in Indian equities however I would caution against buying the typical equity instruments that are available out there for
in the West or in the LSE you need to go down into the details into what each and every company does
for example I'll give you one example you can take a look at how I dissected two of our own
various same products uh about china and
regarding china and india to see how actually we don't actually represent the chinese or the
indian economy in its fullest terms or even in the most you can take a look at that article it is free
for you guys to read on my sub stack uh the link is in my profile description but if you go down
and see a couple of go down a couple of tweets, I think you will see that articles are linked to that article, you can see how we basically break it how I break it on say that actually doesn't really show what it is. But anyways, that is a long term thing. This is an unpredictable thing. The energy map is probably being redrawn. Like Dr. Anastas, there is a butane-heavy LPG component, for example.
We are also beginning to import LPG from Russia.
Now, it is not suitable because of the temperatures and energies and pressures that are applied upon the Indian subcontinent.
It makes that other kinds of LPG is not very useful.
So is there a chemical solution for this?
Is there an artificial solution for this?
All these things are very, very advanced sort of thinking.
Then that impacts the price, et cetera, et cetera.
So these are long-term consequences.
There are long-term studies that need to be done,
long-term analysis.
Again, I will not pretend to be as deep in that field
as, let's say, Dr. Anastas.
But I do keep abreast of it every
now and then so this is something that is also going to develop further and further
uh will we change our relationship with the gcc our energy trading relationship with the gcc no
we probably won't we would like it to be restored and i think gcc countries are also looking for it
to be restored as well in fact many gcc GCC countries do invest in Indian companies and stuff like that, and they look
forward to that as well, continuing with doing that as well.
So there's a lot out there.
So you should not look into too deeply, but being long-earned oil and gas will obviously
be a good payout, at least in the near term.
Yeah, fantastic.
So if you are looking for more information,
do retweet the space so you can come back and there is a lot of information posted in the chat bubble
that you can revisit there.
I want to thank everyone's time here.
David, Cam, Nat Nat, Sandeep, Dr. Anas al-Hajid and Alex.
Do you have any last remarks before we leave here?
Thank you so much.
It was a very interesting listen.
Well, looking at how bonds have performed a little bit this morning
and what's going on in the overall market,
it would be a pretty scary situation.
If you see everything, metals and all that just keep dropping wouldn't be fun to for traders
with the larger spreads and yeah i'm going to keep an eye on the agricultural sector because that's
something i will feel a little bit more comfortable with but thank you for everyone involved it was a
fantastic lesson absolutely and just a friendly reminder always you know, be risk averse in a uncharted waters and uncharted market that's not been documented in history.
So, yeah, just be careful.
Want to thank everyone's time today.
Have a fabulous rest of your day.
And we'll be back with Wolf EU next week on Tuesday and Thursday at 8 a.m. EDT and 12 p.m. UK.
We'll be finishing off with basically the semiconductors
on Tuesday and Netherlands market
and then we'll have an all-star show
on Market Outlook on Thursday
and what's in store
for the rest of the year for 2026.
Everyone, I want to thank you.
Have a fantastic day. Thank you so much.
Thanks. See you next time.
Great space, guys.
