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OSTIUM WEEKLY OPEN
Recorded: March 30, 2025 Duration: 1:01:14Space Recording
Short Summary
In a recent discussion, traders analyzed market trends, highlighting successful trading strategies and the psychological aspects of trading in downtrending markets. Key insights included the attractiveness of short positions, the impact of credit delinquency on market sentiment, and the potential for growth opportunities in undervalued assets like Tesla.
Full Transcription
good morning sorry my bad i was uh i was trying to mess around with the audio
but fuck it i'll leave it you can just listen to the sultry tones of my voice instead
and i can enjoy the well now you're just here for the music
you can't be tonight
you can't be
I might sing
I might do some singing
what about that is that okay
the singing work instead good evening good evening yeah this is it A little bit of dark mode as well.
You know, switching things up a little.
Everything good.
Good evening, though. Welcome.
Thank you for being here on a Sunday.
Thank you for being here. Pre-market open.
Nice to have you.
We'll discuss a little bit about crypto,
traditional markets,
metals.
A week where
I probably made some of my best trading decisions in a while
i always feel as though it's harder to add to positions than initiate positions and so
this week was a week that i added to short side positions and did very well with the timing of those so
feel as though the read is is really on point at the moment in terms of certainly the indexes
like that market i feel very very in tune with crypto is just a kind of subsidiary of those
of those markets and so therefore the the information is just applicable across those as
well but yeah it feels
i feel very much in tune with the tradfi side of things at the moment so hopefully can impart some
knowledge or thought process around that as well can't listen can't see screen too dark there's no yep is there still a discount on the haven the 99 bucks one yes there is
yep that's still in effect 99 for the whole educational package
it's all yours this is the easiest market in the world that's the link as well if you want to sign up you can
find the educational package there thank you yeah i it's in i i think so as well i think you know
the short side setups are presented themselves and we'll speak a little bit about psychology i kind of it's really difficult in it's really difficult in poor market conditions
and i and i speak about poor market conditions from a perspective of price going down and actually
i think people people very often take kind of the wrong thought process around markets like this. So yeah, okay. So this is kind of like a stranger
one to discuss because a lot of people talk about like bad market conditions. And what they mean is
that the price action is bad. And the price action isn't bad. That's like the unfortunate thing at
the moment. The price action isn't bad. The price action is just down trending. You know, you look at the way that
this price action here as traders, okay, and it's not bad price action. It's pretty clean price
action. It just feels bad because it's going down instead of going up. But if this is like reversed
and it basically was through here, you know is the this is basically what we're experiencing here
these two areas are actually quite similar right so a little bit of back and forth but largely it's
uptrending through here and it established its uptrend through here and then here yes you've
got the chop but it's establishing its downtrend through here um you know these these two are you know very similar but we weren't really complaining
too much over at this point here whereas we have quite a lot of complaints obviously about the
price action here so a lot of people tend to feel as though the price action is poorer when it's
trading to the downside because again inherently we all want to long things we all look for
counter trend positions um and unfortunately it's just something which at the moment isn't working for the majority of people
who are long focused now if you're short focused i think the market is very attractive and has been
for a while it's just about timing things and the btc move we discussed quite a bit on the last
stream that we did where we discussed the potential of this divergence having played out. So what we were looking at is we were saying, well, this is a
divergence here and here. The awesome oscillator is saying that here and here. So we know this is
a div. Now, my thought process was that we get this leg here, we triple diverge this, and then
we'd have a more sustained rally. And if you remember, one of the things that I mentioned when it came to that was saying that actually,
I would probably prefer that outlook for the market, because I think a triple divergence
into this major region here would be a really good sign for us, right? There's a lot kind of
a lot stronger evidence to suggest that that might be more of a macro bottom
than i think the situation in which we've played out is um so the situation and the way that we've kind of like traded at the moment is that this divergence has now played out here right we've
crossed over the awesome oscillator to the positive side.
And now we'd be expecting a fresh wave of bearish momentum.
Reset the RSI again here.
And you can see this RSI thing isn't really a meme.
Right. It's not a meme.
You can see this 50 level. This has now been for nearly two months.
It's just trapped here.
It's so simple.
It's just trapped here.
And unfortunately, this is what
trending markets do. Okay, trending markets tend to reject around this 50 level, and then maintain
their trending direction. And that's exactly what we're seeing here.
Yeah, if you're having problems, it's because you're on twitch uh so you can hop in either youtube or you can hop in uh on twitter so i think that barrett
just clarified that that's where the the sound issue is
so at the moment still looking for lower prices on btc would still like to see the 72k area tagged
and then see the reaction from there lower time frame obviously i think over this weekend we've
been a little bit more aggressive in terms of the downside btc may range here for a little bit now
in terms of lower time frame structure we're probably going to end up sweeping both sides at some point early this week as we tend to do and then we'll see again directionally I would
still anticipate this breaking to the downside but this is our lower time frame level we're locked
into at the moment other markets obviously sold off more aggressively ETH tagging into the 1700s
nice divergence presence on ETH we'll go into that in a second but the market
on a crypto side you know setting up and mirroring largely what we've seen on tradfi this week and
the tradfi side of things if we just hop over to spx here which is the market i'm very much in tune
with right now this market again just representative of the classic trending momentum reset.
Price comes up, RSI comes up, hits this 50 level, sees a rejection, falls away to the downside.
Really nasty day on Friday for the indexes.
Some of the worst four-hour candles we've seen since the selling started.
This one in here was particularly nasty,
breaking out of the structure,
breaking into the downtrending structure
on the four hour again as well,
losing all of the lows.
And unfortunately, not even putting in the sweep
that we might have thought would happen through here.
Again, nice little buildup of lows here,
really good area to potentially sweep.
And unfortunately, absolutely no reaction from here.
So again, anticipation here would be lows.
Okay, I still want to see 47, 4800 on SPX.
And I think that's still set up from a higher timeframe perspective
to try and play out towards those numbers.
Yeah, the other one's the gap fill in here.
This was a really strong open last week on Sunday night.
This was a really strong open to the upside.
Gap fill might have been some sort of save for this.
And as I said, the four-hour candle here
was just a horror candle.
We've got 2nd of April obviously coming up as well
in terms of tariffs know tariffs and everything
on that side so the market might be a little bit more nervous around that date
shiller on twitch any option to watch your stream is on 2880p60. That's too high for my internet. Are you aware of this?
I personally, like I wasn't aware of what your internet bandwidth was in terms of being able to stream.
Just switch over to YouTube or Twitter.
Yeah, I think that's where we are barrett okay so you say like daily div systematic perspective nice pa yes bull div on the ao plays out um it crosses over resets
you get a very weak crossover back to the other side continuation of the trend yeah and and that's the
situation even though again you're speaking to somebody who anticipates lower prices and has
been like i still don't like that situation playing out now i still prefer it when people
are happier and prices are going up but yeah this is a this is a really classic example of a counter
trend divergence play out where what you get is this
really weak crossover here and then when this flips back is usually where momentum comes in again
to the downside so that's not a great sign for us because sometimes these can lead to reversals
which is fine so then you expect to see and you would hope to see strength like this on the AO. This is a strong trending market. You can see just how much upside
this awesome oscillator receives here in terms of momentum. And then you can see it also,
always do like the zoomed out activity for the awesome oscillator. And you can see from 23 here,
like look where all of the strength is on the awesome oscillator.
The peaks are so much higher on the bullish side.
Through the end of 23 here, start of 24.
This one's massive.
This one's even bigger again.
All of it's taking place here.
And then look at the bearish crossovers in comparison.
Very weak.
This one here had the biggest amount of strength,
but typically speaking,
these are all very weak in comparison
to what we see on the bullish side.
You know, just a zoomed out view,
you could hide this price action.
You know, you could essentially just get rid of all of this
and you'd still know exactly
what the price action looked like because of this.
Now, this is a difference.
And we're aware of that, obviously,
because of the way that we've been trading.
But this is also a difference in terms of momentum.
This is the most amount of momentum
that bears have had in a significant length of time on BTC.
And again, that's localized to the price action.
It doesn't mean anything, you know, kind of crazy.
It's not like, oh shit, this is going back to 20k it's nothing like
that it just means that obviously the tide has shifted now and now our anticipation because of
the way the trend currently is would be weaker on the bullish side of the ao on this positive side
and stronger on the bearish side so
and then again we just get into the discussion then on you know is this a good retest or not
you know is 72k a good area do we want to be buying 72k do we not
risk reward side i think you buy it all day long if we fail 72k i think it's a really nasty scenario but at the same time this is the
crypto market like if we fail 72k like we we're going to trade you know let's say we trade 64k
everybody flips ultra bearish the market probably ends up recovering 72k a week later so i think the only thing that you do with this level is
you you keep this level as like a line in the sand and you say right this level here is
significant to the recent price history on btc if we end up doing you know stuff like this
and we trade down here that That's fine, right?
You might choose to de-risk.
You might choose to not buy BTC, whatever.
And then if we do that,
then I think that's a very significant move.
I would anticipate or I would think
that if we break this level,
I would actually think that reaction
would probably be more like that.
I think it would be a far quicker V reaction
to reclaim this. And then I think that is a very strong signal in itself.
Maybe this is good enough. Again, risk reward side, that's such a simple trade, such an easy one.
If it does this, it fucks everybody. If it does this, it double fucks everybody if it does this it double fucks everybody
right like that's that's probably the ultimate fuck you pattern through here
come here everybody buys everybody gets stopped out everybody sells everybody has to rebuy
that's probably the most fuck you thing the market could do. Yeah, data here is going to be a lot shorter.
So the trend line you mentioned on...
I'm trying to class it.
Yeah, I didn't mean to draw an inverse head and shoulders.
But if it paints it, it whatever just roll with it
um trendline starting at 23 we broke below it reclaimed it and then lost it on friday we'd
love to hear your thoughts about this i like i don't particularly like historic areas of price action.
So trend lines would be a good example of that.
I'm not a big fan of the history of price action.
You'll see lots of people and they'll put a fucking order block from 2019 on a chart or whatever.
And they'll say, big order block here from 2019, push this into fresh highs.
big order block here from 2019 pushed us into fresh highs.
Like I don't think older price history is that important at all.
Like I don't think there's any relevance.
So like a trend line from 23,
the fact that we reclaim and lose it would add to the fact that I don't
think it's significant.
Like I don't think it's significant.
I don't think it's worth the energy to be monitoring because now we're obviously just slicing through it.
The trend is quite clearly down for those markets.
The trend is quite clearly down on the indexes.
And I think the weekly divergences are very significant
Weekly divergences are very significant on the higher timeframe perspective.
on the higher timeframe perspective.
I think that that weekly div here on SPX is very, very significant.
We've got the crossover now.
The hope was that maybe this is going to be a kind of,
this divergence is done and played out.
That weekly close would indicate that it is not.
We traded into the weekly resistance zone and
started to started to trade lower again so yeah for me 2023 area i would i would kind of just be
ignoring and focusing on a little bit more recent price action i and so then barrett you're asking
about the btc side of 72k and whether or not you just trust it
and buy it even though it conflicts with the fact the market is downtrending yeah i think the risk
reward is too good to pass up like it might just be a bum trade like it might just not work out
but i think the risk reward is just far too great for not trying at that area you know because you're
buying this you're buying this,
you're having a stop loss somewhere below here.
Like, I don't know what that looks like.
And then you're targeting fresh highs.
I think the risk reward of buying this consolidation retest just makes too much sense that it has to become robotic.
I think you can add all the subjectivity into
whether or not you believe it's a retest that should be happening
or it
represents weakness because it is happening whatever i think that robotically risk reward
with such an easy invalidation which is just losing this level right arrow is slightly off
right but losing this level it just makes too much sense.
I think you just have to act like a robot about it and be like, fuck it, I'll buy it and see what syntax i like i'm streaming on three different locations
okay so anybody on twitch once again if you're saying it's stuttering
right i'm streaming on youtube i'm streaming on twitter like there are multiple locations
just just come off twitch and next, we'll just pull Twitch from the viewing.
I'm on Twitch and it's put...
All right, listen.
Then it's internet.
It's internet.
Tesla.
I mean, like, what do you guys think about Tesla?
Let's have honest thoughts. What do you guys think about Tesla Let's have honest thoughts
What do you guys think about Tesla
Thank you Barrett
Because like I have my views
But what's everybody else feeling
On Tesla
Would you be Would you be a Tesla buyer Would you want to own Tesla on Tesla.
Would you be a Tesla buyer?
Would you want to own Tesla?
What's the thought process there?
Yeah, bottle cap.
I mean, you sum it up pretty much, I think, there.
Yeah, I think just in that little snapshot summary you say it's such a discount on a major company it seems like a no-brainer
and that's really where i am with it you know you've got a you've got a major company, 55% down from all-time high.
Those dips, those sort of corrections in the market,
I mean, Tesla's a slightly different example
because it's happened kind of every two years.
But 55% is a big discount for it.
And typically you would see that probably every five years or so.
That is kind of a monumental discount in terms of future-looking traders and investors.
Receiving a sell-off that is around a five-year occurrence is great.
Now, again, because I think the indexes are going lower,
I think there's also a chance that Tesla goes lower.
I think you can trade Tesla
because it's a super volatile market right now.
And when it hits the upside, it's great.
But if you're somebody who's looking at things over a longer
time horizon, and I think probably that's what I'm speaking to when I speak about Tesla right now,
55% discount, sure, you might have to withstand another 10, 15, 20% downside.
But if you're looking towards that five-year investment horizon, you're saying, well, look,
I'm receiving a discount that occurs pretty infrequently in this market and for a major US company.
And for a company that is probably going to be on the cusp of technological movement going
forwards as well, not just in the current state of Tesla.
I think you're right. I think it just feels like a no brain and then it really just comes down to
the question of you know are you happy with 55 discount and holding for five years or do you
want to try and eke out another 10 15 20 downsides because i think that's potentially on the cards
and if you do that then great like some people DCA, some people might take a little bit now,
take a little bit lower,
some people might just be happy now.
But I think all these morons that are speaking
with some sort of veiled education
on the markets and Tesla
and all this fucking liberal propaganda bullshit
about Tesla collapsing you know, collapsing
and hitting Elon in the pocket
and all of that shit,
I think just blows up in their face.
How many times have we seen that happen before?
How many times have we seen companies that,
I mean, Tesla was the most shorted stock
of the entire market
and it made all time high high after all-time high
right so much so that elon even made the short shorts merchandise for the store
right like tesla you can even just use examples in tesla itself
for showing how those predictions fall flat on their face every time
yeah now i think phil i think you make a relatively interesting point when you say
they were already losing ground to the chinese without elon getting hated on by a lot of people
in the u.s i guess globally as well kind of plays into that, you know, maybe with less knowledge,
but sure, it's kind of just a general overview.
And I think there's some interesting stuff
on the Chinese side as well, for sure.
Everyone's getting rid of their Tesla.
Minus 80% in sales, game over over we don't want a fascist here
and again like that's like a personal viewpoint that tesla isn't going to be
tesla isn't going to be troubled by the fact that that is a that is a problem
and again like everybody's just thinking about cars
like if you're future looking in this company it's going to be it's going to be Again, everybody's just thinking about cars.
If you're future-looking in this company,
it's going to be far broader than that.
Everybody's like, oh, yeah, Tesla cars, sales are down.
They're going to crater in terms of what's coming through the pipeline.
I think it's a far different story if you look to what's happening what's going to happen over the next five years for them yeah it takes it and yeah
you're right like you say robotics play i mean like it takes one one movement in that market
in terms of like a shift or other area opening up and suddenly it's a different ballgame yeah look at PE while numbers are coming down fast I think the PE is kind of like a nonsense
argument anyway it's interesting though it's interesting though that people you know like
kind of even like share those views here,
which I think is great.
I think it's great to have people in chat that represent both sides of the argument.
I think that's really cool to have.
Yeah, in Europe, everyone is anti-Tesla.
Yeah, sure.
Yeah, sure.
Like, but again,
the thing is, is like,
how long has it taken people to become anti-Tesla?
Barely any time whatsoever, since the election, right?
Since the election.
So people are anti-Tesla, and realistically speaking,
what they are is they're anti-Elon, is what it is.
It's nothing about Tesla.
It's about the representation of Elon.
And it will take very little to flip that back the other way
and i and also i think that's a probably a broad statement in terms of the everybody
in europe thing i don't necessarily believe that is true like i'm sure like a lot of public information and and kind of public
viewing of elon would be more negatively charged for sure
but again it takes very little to sway sway opinion back it's the same in crypto we see
it all the time like the emotions in the market and the emotions everywhere swing wildly
you know
you remember that day that we had on btc where it was like trading trading through here it's like
this day here right yeah like here things this day here like everyone's like crypto's a scam
crypto's a scam and then we got the green candle close and everybody suddenly didn't own enough crypto right like we get so many of these moments that
very quickly sway emotion you know like i remember so strongly this day in terms of
the emotional swing i think it's the biggest emotional swing i've seen on twitter because people are very easily changed in terms of in terms of their actual beliefs and their
emotions it takes very little to actually sway people back another way
yeah but in the u.s the buyers were democrats
i mean again like inherently that's also the problem with the u.s
like the problem with the u.s is that people make their political allegiance their personality
which is the dumbest shit you can possibly do like it's such a dumb idea
like we're very like for example in the uk like politics is always an area that's kind of off
limits to talk about it's one of those and historically this has always been the case
it's slightly opened up now but historically it's all it's been true that you don't discuss
politics you don't discuss politics you don't discuss politics. You don't discuss politics, you don't discuss religion.
Because they're two things that are, you know, personal, independent, you know, free to your own thoughts, etc.
But unfortunately, the US made politics personalities, and therefore you have people running around supporting companies or not based on political affiliation stickers everywhere
flags flying
right like people make their support for a party what their hobby is essentially
are you seriously justifying a Nazi?
I am speaking about the price and my thoughts about Tesla stock.
If you take that as justification of anything,
you're retarded.
Like, I can sit here and I can discuss why I think Tesla stock is going up or down.
I don't care who's in charge. Like...
That's a wild thought process to get to.
It's only gone up so much because of Trump.
Check the three-month chart.
It's a scam work.
I mean, the three-month the scam work i mean the three month chart means nothing
in reality
all right yeah but we can we can stop we can we can stop test the chat but it was good
i'm pleased that we had that chat it was good to hear other opinions as well i like that
long mental health ETF
no you short the shit out of that
Jesus Christ
it's only going to get worse man
mental health will decline
rapidly based on price
price down mental health down down, mental health down.
Price up, mental health down.
That's the way it goes. pinning on sol all right let's go sol sol's very similar to eath actually we can cover these back
to back because i think lower time frame they probably both represent very similar things here
um sol is an interesting one because of the fact that it moved back down to the lows
again on a weekend i kind of like that in these conditions the downside to sol on the lower
time frame is that it's also taken the highs here so what you've got is a scenario now where this
wick here which is basically you know over the course of you know a couple of hours ago
has now taken all of these lower time frame highs which isn't really a good scenario on the
soul side of things you have got some nice divergences building you've got a nice divergence
on the four hour and you're starting to get this four hour divergence wrapping around through here
as well and then you've got the same on the east side of things which we'll go to in a second but
at the moment i'm still not a massive fan of sol because of its interaction with this area through
here again it was like btc we really struggled under 135 we rejected pretty heavily on two
separate occasions through here broke through tried to hold up plummeted back through once again
rsi reset here really piss weak ao, straight back to the negative side.
Just looks to me again like it wants to go lower.
I still think that sweet spot for Sol is sub 100.
I think sub 100, people panic, people meme it,
people are shitting on Sol,
people are calling for ridiculously low price targets.
I think this sub 100 area is B you know, BTC at 72K.
The round number, all of that mixed into the Sol environment.
We got a lot of Sol holders.
I think that is a natural, really nasty point to push below.
And then ETH. and then eth so very similar the daily looks awful like the daily looks really pissed through here because you've just got again and like these are horrible horrible consolidations which is why i was urging everybody
to zoom out a little of these regions because when we're down on the five minute and the 15 minute
this looks significant but when you start to zoom out and you see it for what it is it's nothing
like but when you're trapped in this for two weeks it looks as though it's like up only you convince yourself the trend is reversed you
start thinking about higher prices and then you know in two days it wipes it all out because
that's the direction of the trend which is the the disappointing thing at the moment so this
looks pissed this looks fucking awful lower time frame similar situation to sol we're hopefully going to get the divergence through
these lows here so you can see it here the rsi is trying its best to stay in a diverging position
here and you can see it a little bit more clearly actually on the hourly through here
where you can see that each of these lows is a significant higher low on an rsi basis
that's typically a
good sign for us. The one thing that I've been discussing and discussed a little on Twitter as
well, and like sometimes on Twitter, you need to be like a bit of a dick to actually get the engagement but one of the one of the big discussion points was
the trend itself and it works exactly the same on the uptrend okay you get an uptrend let me just
get rid of this and then we'll you get an uptrend and it goes like this okay
and whatever you get in an uptrend that looks like this people want their pullback okay they
want their pullback and so what they say is they say okay well i'm gonna buy this market as soon
as it tags here because i'm pretty sure it's going to come down and retest this level. And then what happens is we get this,
okay, and then the market does this. And these people get frozen out. And you see that time and
time again in uptrending markets, and you see it on Twitter a lot. We start to get some sort of
corrective price action. People say, right, I'm going to be a buyer here. I think it's going here.
people say, right, I'm going to be a buyer here. I think it's going here.
And then it ramps, right? It reverses early. It ramps because this is the trend and the trend is
more powerful than anything else. And unfortunately, what we got a lot on the crypto side of
was we got our downtrend like this and then price action started going like this.
And suddenly people were like, yeah, I'm going to be, I'm going to be, you know, I think this is a really good bounce.
I'm going to be longing this until we get here.
I think we're going to be, you know, moving higher.
I think we're going to sweep these highs.
I think we're going to do this.
And then the trend does this.
It's exactly the same as we get in uptrending scenarios where you get buyers that are frozen out because they want lower levels than the trend can support and you get the same on the short side when you've got people looking
for short entries or long positions which is why people tend to round trip a lot in down trends
because expectations start to get out of line with the direction of the trend people forget
the direction of the overall trend because this localized period of
price action looks really aggressive and like it's really positive. They forget this big overall
trend and again when the momentum kicks in because of a downtrending market it tends to
wipe out price action very quickly. Same as you see in the uptrending scenario.
same as you see in the uptrending scenario and that unfortunately has been the story of the last
week or so i've seen people time and time again discussing higher prices thinking there's more
juice in the tank thinking we've got more to go thinking that you know like btc is going to 92k
it's like doing all of these things and again it's unfortunately when the trend kicks in it reminds you that this is a
downtrending structure and you see it on eth here you've got what even through here if we take like
this price action here we've got 18th of march through the 24th we've got a week of price action
that was essentially wiped out in a single four-hour candle
because that's the trend for our candle.
Because that's the trend.
We'll do another 10 minutes or so.
15 minutes.
We'll get through to the open, and then we'll wrap up.
And also, I haven't mentioned it, but a big thank you to Ostium as well.
You can trade TradFi markets on-chain, on-arb.
Super easy.
Nice leverage available, more so than traditional brokers. Oh God.
That's PA.
Any strong opinions on NVIDIA's chart?
Nothing, I just think lower still.
Yeah, grass prime for an insane short.
Yeah, I did see it.
I did see it.
But at the moment, it's kind of looking okay, right?
Scrooge Duck, how are the ducks?
Ducks are good.
Yeah, the ducks are good. It's, um...
Yeah, it's been a nice time.
Been a nice time.
So used to the white mode chat.
Yeah, the docs are great.
The docs are lovely to have.
Ether 114?
What are we saying there?
Yeah, the kids very much enjoying it you what do you want to do with them
uh or what do you do with them they're only three weeks old at the moment so they're they're still
small so they're not laying eggs yet but yeah they will lay eggs and then it's just really you
know we've got we've got a little bit of land now so it's just having things around really it's just
kind of nice also from the kids side of things you know it teaches some responsibility looking after things
and just
generally kind of cool to have around
you think the open's going to be bloody i don't think so i think it would just be
like relatively meh again lower time frame the indexes are super extended on the downside so
you know i would anticipate they'd get some relief it's always typically worse when that
happens during kind of the the asia hours you can see uh here you know you you take a look and we're absolutely slammed
here when it comes to things like rsi you know we're trading back down to these levels and again
these are like historically bounce points for the market and it's i always say it's like not a great
sign when it happens during during asia hours because what tends to happen is like we trade up in a really pathetic way like this over Asia,
and it ends up just resetting the RSI.
And then by the time we get like the US online,
suddenly we've had this like trend reset
on the lower timeframes,
and we're just ready to sell off again.
So it's like always better
if you can go into the US.s session super extended because that's
typically better for a bounce but you know you even see it through here you know you get this
like piss bounce through here and it just does nothing you know looking and it's basically
exactly the same it's through those asian hours right so you get here midnight 1 a.m all the way
through 7 a.m's online, Europe's
online. US come online, they pump it one more time and then just nuke it. They're done.
Well, S&P close end of year, not sure. I'd like to see 4,700. I think that's a really nice spot
for this market, higher timeframe. If it gets 4,700, I think it's offering a huge discount.
That's all I'll really say about it.
Yes to 51.
Yeah, I think lower again, but I think, yeah, shorter terms still.
Why is ETH always selling off so aggressively when sold on btc and he falls slightly
it doesn't feel like a bottom i don't think it is a bottom i think you're right on that side of
things i mean ether's been ether's been struggling for a long time this isn't something that's you
know recent and we've got this really crazy logic
where we tend to focus on the things
that are some of the worst performers,
whether or not it's a thing
because we feel as though there's a sense of challenge there
in terms of trying to time things like a bottom
or an impulse higher.
Like ETH is a very good example of that.
And lots of people still try and long ETH.
There's still lots of commentary on an ETH BTC chart.
But, you know, that shit has been trending for a long time.
But there's still like this urge, and I have it too, right?
Like there's still this urge to want to catch it.
There's still this urge to want to time the correction,
to time the reversal, to time the full trend reset
and you see it all the time on social as well where like on twitter you look at twitter in a
in a downtrending market like we're in now i would say to you that 80 percent of the trades
that you see will be long positions in a downtrend because whenever we're trending down
people want along people looked along you see like taking a shot here think this is a good
place for a bounce starting a position here now you see so many trades that just counter trend
so the ethologic spills over everywhere else and it's the same in uptrending markets.
So uptrending markets,
you see lots of people that are looking to short the market.
I think we're going to correct.
I think we're going to sell off here.
I think this is a top here.
There's something again,
kind of deep down psychologically rooted
that wants us to be the contrarian to the market.
It's something that wants us to be the contrarian to the market. It's something that wants us to take the other side.
Yeah, 72K is a good level,
but it doesn't seem like enough of a drawdown for a bottom.
That's probably the other side, again, to kind of the subjective psychological side of things.
I think BTC is down around 30% from its high.
The average correction on BTC that we've received, or actually I should rephrase that,
the biggest correction that we've seen on BTC in two years is 33%.
That's the largest BTC correction for the last two years.
We're down 30 30 at the moment
70k would represent us trading down another 10 from that
yeah so i think it's more of a case of so uh prola says here i think it's more of a case of
people wanting to be right people love to say punting some longs and if it ends up being the
right play they glorify themselves absolutely okay so there's some clout harvesting that's
involved in that because it's very good engagement bait to be able to reshare them, repost them, et cetera. It's like a classic, it's a classic thing, okay?
So I did something actually this week in the Haven,
which was a discussion on why Twitter is always counter trend.
And that's one of the points of that educational video is,
you know, there is, you have to think about an individual
from an engagement perspective.
You also have to think about the content that you actually kind of absorb there.
Somebody posts a setup with a couple of longs on that don't work out.
They get very quickly forgotten.
They're just like, yeah, it didn't work.
It's the wonderful thing about trading as well,
because what you can do is you post a long setup.
You go on BTC and you're like're like yeah i think this is the macro bottom
here i'm gonna take this trade i'm gonna do that i'm gonna wait for new all-time highs
and it doesn't work out okay and then anybody that shits on you in the replies you just say
listen man that's trading that's what it that's what it's all about sometimes you take losses
it's just a win-win scenario you get all-time highs you look like a god you get stopped out
then you tell everybody
that's what trading is, man.
It's about taking these educated gambles
and educated risk setups and that's it.
It's win-win.
It's pure win-win scenario.
So yeah, counter trend on Twitter makes sense
because it's so easy to be able to put that forwards
and have an acceptable reason on both sides for why you did it.
And I've absolutely used that excuse before.
All right, so we've got five minutes until the open.
We'll take a look at the open and then we will wrap up for our Sunday night.
Get ready to begin the week. Are people... are people i'll take phil's point first if we get a massive stock meltdown shouldn't we assume this is starting
the bcc bear market yes again that would be the assumption now i think again you know that's
that's a really broad point generally speaking yes, yes, I think that's absolutely correct to think that.
I think if, like for me personally, if I don't believe that the index bottom is in,
then why should I believe 72K would be the bottom for BTC?
I don't necessarily believe it will be the bottom.
I think it's a very good robotic risk reward spot to be able to take.
If the indexes trade lower and we do have
some sort of you know meltdown scenario then yes crypto is going to trade significantly lower too
the only potential saving grace to that is causation for the stock meltdown is there some sort of fundamental uplift for crypto on the back of that?
So I'm a big one, obviously, on the side that I'm very heavily short
on the credit market.
That's a big thesis of mine,
is that we have a significant credit meltdown.
And that may be a net positive for crypto.
We'll see.
But yeah, some of my largest short positions are on credit firms.
Because of the way that I view the environment.
Last bear market lasted 200 days for TradFi and only because of slow rate hikes.
Yeah. Again, crypto was slightly shorter, shorter but again still that kind of like similar length
but remember in a bear market 200 days feels like 2000
we've got two minutes let's see if i can do the metals in two minutes
gold super easily super easy all-time highs. Price discovery continues. Looks great.
Really, really pleased with the way that gold's trading.
Just a wonderful looking market overall.
No problems with this.
It's still the ideal of how we would like BTC to be trading. But I mean, holy shit.
Basically, for the past two years, this has just been a monster market
and remains so right now.
Silver, the other one. i think silver still looks great
i'm obviously a huge silver bull 35 is a really big level for silver we want to see it stabilize
and make another push at some point this week there are maybe some concerns about the way that
the weekly rsi is shaping up but overall I think that this is a pretty natural correction towards a very significant area through here for silver.
But again, still very much a silver bull through here.
Still a metals bull overall.
You don't short price discovery, you just let it unfold.
And I think that silver does have a big breakthrough and breakout.
The monthly chart for silver is so, so attractive.
The monthly chart for silver is so, so attractive.
I think it looks great.
I think it looks great.
Yeah, I mean, I don't need the stage for long
to tell you about the way that I think that the metals look.
Does that include a buy and i pay later or the bigger banks and the stuff you're shorting so capital one finance and discovery financial group are two of my biggest shorts um they actually have
a potential underlying deal with um an acquisition of capital one taking discovery. But I think that credit is just a big problem.
3% of all mortgages in the US
are now under some sort of credit delinquency.
Credit delinquency rates are at the highest level since 2008.
Banks are pushing credit cards on everybody still left, right, and center
with exceedingly high interest rates. It doesn't take much to buck the system that's a relatively nasty open lower
so yeah i i think that actually you know credit is a problem and i I know about you guys and something that I discussed again, you know,
this weekend in the Haven is, you know, in the UK here, we have a lot of people and, you know,
we have friends and people that we chat to that are using buy now, pay later services
and using relatively aggressive buy now, later services you know things like Klarna
that are offering you the chance to split payments over the next three months for
for even what we would consider kind of mundane items and you have things you know in this country
as well and I know that it was kind of you know news this week that that the US were discussing
like DoorDash being you know taking Klar taking Klarna. We've had takeaways and
delivery services for food on credit systems for a while here. And they're used, like they're
regularly used. I speak to people who use them. The problem that we have, I think, at the moment
within kind of the working people of most countries is that there's a very fine line that they are straddling,
which is one bad thing that happens to them in a month.
Their car blows a tire, their dog needs an operation, whatever it might be,
has a significant credit knock-on to them.
A significant impact on the credit side of things.
And I think a lot of people are in that scenario.
I think there's actually like a really fine line
where it doesn't take a huge amount
for things to start to break quite quickly.
Yeah, concert tickets on credit.
Everything gets offered on credit.
Again, Klan is a huge, huge service.
So I think that's like a,
it feels like a very clear real-world application
of some of the credit struggles that we see.
As I said, I know plenty of people that utilize those services to get them through to payday
so that they can then, you know, use next month's pay to pay off, you know, this month or last
month's purchases. And again, they're all very aggressive credit systems and it takes one thing
to happen and suddenly you're underwater.
All right, so pretty negative open actually here.
It's not even updated.
We're trading at 55.41 here on Ostium.
We didn't even get the continuation here of the one-minute candle,
but we're actually trading down here.
So it's a pretty poor open for things. Chart can't even keep up
it was such a poor open
yeah
BTC didn't like something yeah it didn't like the open
eth back below 1800 as well
all right so we'll wrap up but i think again like i said i you just have to be careful in
this environment because you know the trend is still down.
You can trade however you want to trade.
I'm not here to tell you don't take longs, don't do this.
Trade however you trade and whatever falls within your system of operation.
But all I will say is that when markets are downtrending, you just have to be careful of the aggression.
It's just like shorting an uptrending market. It can really fuck you when it has those bad days. And
I'm still of the belief, as I have been for multiple weeks on lower prices,
I think that we've seen the correction. And I've said that before. I'm not just saying that now,
that we're trading back down at the lows, I think that we've seen the correction.
I think that was it.
I think that was the counter trend rally.
And I think that we go to lower prices.
Now, I don't know when that happens.
I don't know if that's tomorrow, next week, three weeks.
I don't know if we chop more in between.
But my higher timeframe view still remains unchanged that I think we see lower prices across the board.
And I still think that stocks are at significant risk
of lower prices and will board. And I still think that stocks are at significant risk of lower
prices and will probably be the driving factor to what actually pulls crypto down. We know that
crypto tends to act with more violence whenever TradFi is selling off anyway. But as we start the
week in terms of where we are, I think we've actually got a huge amount of overextension
from an index perspective. I think that there's probably a decent chance we at least bounce.
Again, that might be over Asian hours,
so it might be rather insignificant.
But I think that, again, even crypto with stuff like ETH and SOL,
we're getting to those divergence levels.
We've had a lot of aggression on the downside.
Would be nice if they bounced, but the trend is down. So expect the violence on the downside, not on the downside would be nice if they bounced but the trend is down so expect the violence
on the downside not on the upside responses and uh this week barrett will do a very good job i'm
sure of splitting up some of the content within this stream today to to do some short content
from anybody that missed anything replay will be available for the full stream as well on YouTube. You'll be able to catch up on.
Obviously, if you want to join me in the haven,
that's also greatly appreciated.
But a big thank you to Osteum,
sponsoring the stream,
providing an on-chain solution for traditional assets,
which is really cool to have.
And I hope everybody's had a wonderful weekend
and you're duly refreshed recharge ready to go for a another fun week of the financial markets
and everything that comes with it
so And best of luck out there.
It's a fun market to trade, but look after yourselves.
