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Powell Said 7 Words That Crashed the Market | Market Check
Recorded: March 19, 2026 Duration: 1:14:01Space Recording
Full Transcription
Good morning, everybody. Welcome to today's episode of Market Check brought to you by
BB. There is no second best live YouTube stream to talk about the markets. Welcome back, guys,
to the least surprising Thursday price action probably of all time. We are red. Stop me if
you've heard this one before. And if trends are anything to go off of,
Friday will probably be green, right? So we'll see what we get. But market's kind of selling
off a little bit. After Powell spoke yesterday, we've got a lot to discuss as far as FOMC goes,
as far as risk goes, and ultimately as far as crypto goes, as Bitcoin I see has pulled back
below 70K. Was that a sweep of the range highs into a new sell-off and
a new leg of the downtrend or was that potentially or is that potentially where we're forming a
higher sorry I have something in my throat right now a higher low right now but welcome guys I'm
Snorlax you also know me as Tommy I'm joined by Max and, of course, Tucker. We might be joined by a few other members of the crew as well.
We've got Louie on deck. Perfect timing, actually. Welcome, Meatstick.
You literally caught me as I was doing the introductions. That was crazy timing.
But before we can get started, guys, before we can start talking about all of our favorite assets and even some of our least favorite assets, because I'm sure we have some of those too, like a soybeans, for example,
going to ask if you guys can hit the like button for us. We always appreciate when you guys do
that. Of course, when you oblige, we try to give you a great show. And yeah, we'll keep giving you
a great show no matter what, but it's always appreciated when you guys
hit the like button anyway uh let's talk about the markets a little bit more in detail right
because it's thursday we should know by now what thursdays entail it's usually pretty red price
action just as you know on days like monday and even tuesday we see green days so why is this time
different right um well for, we are kind of
seeing the S&P finally break down from that 6700 level. Does this open up equities for potentially
more downside here over the coming weeks? Obviously, we had VIXPiration yesterday. We've
got OPEX tomorrow, quarterly OPEX. So there's going to be a lot of hedges that exit the market.
Now, this could mean anything. But what it does mean is that volatility now has a little bit more freedom to either go up or down, which means we're probably going to have a very large move coming for this market here over the next three to four weeks. you all of course um but uh yeah i mean tech is still just kind of pinned in this range
bitcoin as we kind of said in the uh earlier in the intro bitcoin's kind of like we're kind of
in no man's land within this local range now um i see somebody already made a joke about it but
you didn't short the top with 75x leverage you didn't long the bottom with 75x leverage. You didn't long the bottom with 100x leverage. Well, you might not make it.
I'm kidding. I'm kidding, of course. But hopefully we get some larger trend now on Bitcoin here
as we head into April. I do think that we are loading a larger move, whether that's going to
be a squeeze, whether that's going to be a dump. I think we'll get more clarity on that, obviously,
into the end of the month. But how are we feeling about the markets, guys?
I see everybody on my feed talking about oil, but not as many people talking about risk markets,
which I think are now much more interesting as a result of what we've seen over the last few weeks.
And I think everybody is just going to rip their hair out trying to trade oil while it stays at relatively stable prices.
But that's just my conjecture.
I'll add that.
How are we doing guys?
Do we have any thoughts?
Who did we pick to win March Madness?
Surprise curve ball there.
Big day,
Tommy,
big day today.
Big day.
We got,
we got a lot of games going on later,
but I took in my billion-dollar Calci bracket,
I had to be real and not put KU, unfortunately.
So I put Arizona.
But a lot of other brackets, I have KU going away, of course.
I mean, I'm a weak man.
What am I supposed to say?
You're a loyal man,ucker i respect yeah i had to
but uh yeah i don't know i guess let's all right the market the market okay this i would say in
this a couple a couple weeks ago like the first big liquidation event after kind of a blow off top,
I think is a buy.
And looking back,
I should have just been buying oil down here because that was,
that was like 25% ago.
I'm pretty sure,
you know,
that was,
that's not the right tool.
That was,
that was a lot of,
a lot of,
yeah,
25% ago,
basically.
I don't know.
I still kind of think this is going higher.
That's really
pretty much based on fundamental
reasons.
I don't think
this shit in the Middle East is going to get
resolved anytime soon, unfortunately.
I think
it's just going to be a nightmare for the price of oil and the price
of everything which is unfortunately going to continue to put pressure on inflation and
erode the ability to cut rates without whatever you know it's the whole macro snowball right um
but yeah i think i think this probably goes a little bit higher. Maybe not immediately, but
I don't know. I just don't think that was quite it.
I don't think that was quite it, but I know people aren't here
to listen about oil futures. I understand.
Tucker, every time I think of the word oil now,
now. In my head, I pronounce
in my head I pronounce it the way that it should be.
it the way that... The way that it should
be? Yeah.
Yeah.
Errol.
Talking about all futures.
My name's Errol.
Errol.
Errol. Louis. Yeah, I can't
believe none of you have seen True Detective Man.
That was the thumbnail on my video yesterday.
Nobody got it.
Who the fuck is that guy?
I thought it was Tra trailer park tucker or
something oh bro come on do you understand but that's an old show now it's an old show now yeah
it was i don't know it was like 2020 or 2019 maybe it was before that even but you guys all need to get watch that it's actually incredible
um but yeah bitcoin needs to bounce right here it's absolutely fried i think i mean as you can
see i've drawn some lines on here we have a little green area that is pretty important in my opinion
so i'll take that off you know your your simple
diagonal put this back on it's kind of your parabolic curve you've you've pretty much lost
the curve at this point right but you're you're hanging on to the diagonal so i'd like to see it
stay above 68 if we're gonna go back to the upside anytime soon.
You know, obviously, you've got some volume down here, but higher time frame. Let's see.
Let's see. Let's just pick a random spot.
I mean, all right, let's clean it up for a second, right?
i mean all right let's let's clean it up for a second right
look i think it's either gonna bottom on this point of control right around maybe 67
or it's tp1 tp2 tp3 you know stop it stop it stop i know but uh let me pull this back even more oh that's ugly
that uh it's because we're on the binance chart and the binance volume's all messed up
i don't even know what chart to use for good volume profiles anymore on bitcoin i just use coinbase use coinbase because yeah binance did have all that wash
trading at the bottom yeah it's still an ugly profile i guess you could hang out above it
i think soul is a pretty good profile to use too interesting
i think this is actually a pretty decent profile.
Yeah.
You know.
A lot of volume done in here, that's for sure.
Oh, yeah.
Eight month range of hell.
I prefer to forget about it completely.
Keep dragging it back.
I'd love to never think about the 48 to 67k range ever again.
This?
The absolute worst.
We're back. We are back yeah we're back in it
hello old friend yeah
so darkness my old friend dude i can't even tell you how close i was to shorting hype yesterday
and then i just slowly removed my hand from the trigger.
Do you guys know who Jonah is?
He's the guy who claimed to be a multi-decade oil trader
and then faded the whole move.
Oh, yeah.
He was making fun of people for not just shutting up
and buying hype last night.
And I missed that tweet, but
mechanically,
I would have had to short it
if I had seen it.
Yeah.
I was looking at it
like...
I think it was
probably at almost 42.
It was like 41.5 and I was like
eh, looks topped
didn't do anything about it
where is this volume
profile that I found on Ikeman
I just wanna
you were trying to find it this morning too
yes dude
it was just like the value
right it's like right right at the tippy top where we were but what do you guys
just happen what happened nice oils juicing a bit what happened i don't know oils juicing a bit
what happened we have breaking news
breaking news breaking news i mean i'm watching in one hour so but the u.s did not implement crude
export ban to not implement crude export ban what does it mean I don't know it
affects my digital shit coins it's provocative
it's provocative jeez
btc is going down
oh yeah bitcoin oil's pushing apparently something about oil exports is sending bitcoin to the gulag
uh yeah word that makes sense
yeah word that makes sense
totally bitcoin's dependency on oil you know totally makes sense you got to respect the
correlation there the digital currency is super dependent on oil bitcoin bitcoin is
just negatively correlated to everything. No matter what.
Don't you love our asset class, Louie?
God, dude, this would have been such a good short if I had gotten my level, but I didn't.
You know what they say?
Yeah, I was on trends.
Front-running entries.
I know, but dude.
But dude, I had.
I had the other one perfect.
I had this one.
This one.
To the penny.
Didn't front run it at all.
Look at that.
Oh my god.
I thought I was going to get it again.
You know.
Same thing.
Little double top thing.
Sorry for cutting you off there, Louie.
No, that's okay.
Yeah, what were you saying?
I was just going to say, I was looking at Bitcoin Tuesday night.
Just kind of sitting there at the high, and I was like,
we got to separate from this cluster here,
or else we're going to come back down, at least for a deeper pullback.
And we are, sadly, but we could get that line tucked.
sadly, but we could get that line tucked.
We could get a three drive.
We could get a three-drive.
No, I would be so happy with a three-drive, honestly.
Just three-drive us right into here and then just do that.
Yeah.
Do it.
Do it.
Do it.
Do it.
Yeah, I haven't really looked at much price since Tuesday night.
I don't really participate in FOMCs anymore.
Smart man.
Yeah.
Yeah.
Yeah, so, like, I'm just kind of now looking at everything.
Kind of a let the dust settle for me moment.
It's usually how I play these things out you know post
fomc usually takes about a day day and a half for the market to really pick a true direction here so
but obviously some sell-offs coming out of it i don't even i didn't no idea what jerome said or
anything did he even say anything significant or it's just a slight hawkish tilt maybe
I think I read that
I didn't watch it either
I mean he didn't really say anything
other than the fact that some members
aren't really in favor of
cutting as much as they were
because of the inflation risk
yeah
yeah that sounds about right that makes sense um what happened to
the what happened to the gold the bitcoin rotation man gold is going down but so is bitcoin
i thought we were gonna get metals to rotate into bitcoin what happened bro what happened i saw copper was nuking as well is it that's one i'm
gonna try to buy the dip on but not not yet but oh you got a level that was um that was something
i was watching and like everybody like everyone in there like again i feel like i do this a lot
to myself and i i would smart myself in a way where I'm just like, oh, everyone's talking about it.
It's too obvious.
But copper was one where a lot of people were talking about it.
A lot of people were looking for the catch up trade.
You had, you know, big billionaires on CNBC talking about it.
Like I was like, OK, like I like the idea, but I feel like it's due for a pullback first.
But this is one, too, I'm interested in.
But I think it needs to shake some people out first.
Yeah, I wonder...
Buy the dip.
Yeah.
I wonder if the copper miners are getting hammered, too.
What was another one?
Hero.
That wouldn't have worked out. god i didn't do that copper i feel like is just going to be one of those things that everybody's probably right
but nobody's going to catch that move on leverage or no one's going to make money on it yeah
well except for your loyal spot holders who don't jump around they'll probably make money on it
it still does look absolutely insane this is a miner a copper miner i might have to bid this
that looks good this this may have to catch a bit dude that looks interesting yeah this looks kind of nice which one is that it's uh
dnn dnn denison what do you say dn what is dn i mean there's an answer but i'm not gonna say
There's an answer, but I'm not going to see it.
Oh, God.
I can't even think of what it would be.
The end.
Don't think about the market.
Yeah, no, I know.
I'm thinking of something.
Yeah.
Thank God Jackis isn't here.
Jackis would know.
Jackis would say something.
Something perverted.
Yeah.
A check. I would Yes. I would never.
I would never do that.
Stop it.
Oh, I know.
Oh, my God. I can't believe.
It's a very basic one.
Yeah.
Wow.
It's a super common meme, Louie.
It's a super
common meme, Louie.
I really didn't mean to put this much focus on it.
It's okay.
It's okay.
All right. What else, man? What else are we looking at? I'm lost. alright what else man what else
I'm lost
Louis I'll
put it
we'll try it after
copper miners
copper miners are there any other good ones we like?
Not miners,
but DBA.
I like DBA.
Louie, did you get it finally?
Yeah.
This is basically just the yields chart.
Agriculture fund.
Yeah, it is basically the 10-year.
This looks like the 10 year
yeah
yeah this looks good
what are they do we know what they buy
agriculture
agriculture i know but i need to know
i don't know what specific agriculture they're
buying sure they're buying some soybeans of course grain cattle lean hogs you know
lean hogs not just any hogs they have to be lean welcome to the start of the everything bubble unwind one crypto bubble
yeah didn't hear the crypto bubble that's what are you talking bubble this bubble is already unwound
we didn't even get a bubble
we got an echo bubble
we got an echo bubble
and when it's done
I'm hoping we get a super cycle
as per our
tech ancestors in 2008
god it's so bad tech ancestors in 2008.
god it's so bad there's just no good trend lines on this chart
maybe
long way down.
Max, what are you cooking on over there?
It's over.
It's over?
You also never gave us your March Madness pick, Max.
Because I don't know shit about college basketball.
We're going to go with Arizona wins it.
Hell yeah.
Nice.
It's probably a problem that all three of us think that.
Louie, what about you?
Pick someone else, please.
You guys are going to kill me,
but I've never done a March Madness bracket in my life.
Tom or Louie.
I've never done one.
You got 15 minutes, bro.
That's okay.
You could probably auto.
I need another thing to think about.
Yeah, I know.
But if you pick a perfect bracket on Couchy, Louis, they'll give you a billion
dollars.
Actually.
I saw that. I did see that.
I mean, worth a shot.
How many people are plugging that into their ai
oh god everybody give me a perfect bracket make no mistakes i literally said that to the clock
so you know what i used ai for with my bracket i used it for uh which teams had the best astrology that's an edge right there yeah that's
an edge and uh i i mean we're gonna find out what what it knows but upsets i guess are gonna be more
favorable today than for the rest of the weekend so i picked more upsets today than the other day i mean would ohio state beating tcu be
technically an upset no but i did pick tcu so you did pick tcu i can never pick ohio state in any
sport man dude there is there's beef there i know sorry if you're an ohio state fan in the comments there. I know.
Sorry if you're an Ohio State fan in the comments.
AZ going to get upset by St.
John's next round?
They don't even play in the same region.
Arizona's going to have to deal with Arkansas or Wisconsin, though,
and that's going to be the real sticky point for the Arizona pick.
I think if they win that game, they'll be in the final.
KU has the hardest region, and it's not even close, I think.
Who, Halston?
Yeah, that's a pretty good region.
We got UConn.
We got Duke.
We got – I'm pretty sure – wait, no, we don't have Houston.
St. John's is good. We got Michigan State.
Yeah. UConn.
Go Blue.
I hope Michigan does well. I think they will.
See, I feel this point really hard like i get it but it's we're just in an era where
one seeds just dominate unfortunately that was me last year like i tried to be edgy
and pick not a lot of one seeds to go or like try you because usually there's always going to be a
few unexpected teams in the elite Eight and the Final Four.
And like last year, there was no surprises at all.
Yeah.
So I was kind of lame picking my bracket this year.
Same.
Thoughts on your new franchise quarterback?
You're welcome.
Bro, no, he's just a great backup, dude.
I mean, we steady get starting quarterbacks as backups.
We had Carson Wentz as a backup forever.
I'm not going to lie, Tucker.
It's pretty crazy that Justin Fields throws the best football in Kansas City now.
Yeah, I know.
Yeah, I know.
It's kind of sad.
I don't know what happened, bro.
I don't know what happened, bro.
I don't know what happened.
We'll just put him out there on third and two and run like an option play,
and he'll get like six yards.
It'll be that.
He really needs to convert to being a tight end, if we're being honest.
Yeah, his best plays were run plays this year.
Dude's huge.
Last year.
At least we got Geno Smith back. Dude's huge. Last year. At least we got Geno Smith back.
That's good.
Dude, I saw a post and it was like
imagine being a Jets fan
that went into a coma for 10 years
and you're like, oh wow, Geno Smith is still
our quarterback. Things must have turned
out really well.
Yeah.
Yeah.
Geno. We should probably get back on topic though
yeah it's a festive day though it's march madness i'll allow it it's a festive day
still he's doing god just a disgusting chart
quarterly What's all he's doing? God, just a disgusting chart.
Quarterly.
Oh, God.
Operation Save the Weekly needs to happen or else it's going to be ugly.
I mean, this actually was the worst-looking weekly I've ever seen,
but it still somehow resulted in a green candle the next week so yeah that's one one yeah i mean this is
coins down and he's a jets fan he has to be the strongest man alive
it's um yeah that's my life it's um especially the last couple years just being all in crypto
and a jets fan with season tickets it's still fun to go to the games.
It is.
It is.
It's fun up until the game starts.
The tailgating is fun.
Get to spend some time with the boys.
But, yeah.
That's me.
That's me. No one can say I'm not loyal. No one can take that that's me. That's me.
No one can say I'm not loyal.
No one can take that away from me.
That's me.
That's the long haul.
You're probably wondering how I got here.
That's so funny.
I root for the Jets because some of my roommates are fans.
Not to reignite the conference. Jesus.
All right, bro.
Oh, my God.
Oh, my God.
Oh, man.
Yeah.
Louis, do you hate the Giants?
Is that how that works or no?
No. I mean, it's like half of my friend
group are giants fans half of my friend group are gets fans so there's always a lot of shit talk
um i don't really get involved in it i don't i don't really care it's not
um we hate the patriots really i think everybody does are you a jack Jackson Dart enjoyer, Louie, or no?
Yeah, I like him.
I like Scadaboo.
I mean, yeah, you got to like that.
That's not even a question.
You got to love Scadaboo.
Louie, if you were a pro football player, you'd be Cam Scadaboo.
Yeah.
100%.
I agree.
Yeah.
I agree.
That's how I was when I played football.
I played linebacker.
Just a bowling ball.
Just knocking down people.
Run through a mother effer's face.
Definitely taking a toll on the old noggin, though.
I've got to preserve what I have left.
left yeah i'm with you louis oh well
I'm with you, Louis.
i just hate fmc weeks man they suck yeah this week's got the bonus of the uh
opex so probably not going to be too much more going on
into Friday if I had to guess.
They'll try to crush
bull again.
Damn, Tesla looks cooked.
Dude, I know.
Oh, man.
Dude, why do...
Why does the 10-year look bullish
i know it's not great it just like doesn't make sense
i know total trend shift i know push on the future her mortgages are going to be so
so bad man so i mean prices are going to come bad. What do you mean, Max?
So, Tucker, on the right chart,
leave the 10-year on the left.
On the right chart,
throw up the 30-year mortgage rate.
No, no, no.
That's the...
Oh, that's the 30-year.
Literally type in, like,
30-year mortgage rate, and it should pop up.
Top one.
Look at these charts next to each other.
Yeah, it's really bad.
Hang on.
I got to go monthly.
No, it's like if the 10-year goes higher,
what do you think is going to happen to mortgage rates?
So you think mortgage rates are going up?
Well, I don't know.
I mean, I would want to think that rates are coming down, like yields should be dropping.
But I don't know when I look at that chart why it's just holding so steady.
It almost looks like a trend shift bull flag.
But I can't reconcile that
because it should be looking like it wants to go down dude one of my buddies bought a house
right here and i'm so mad at him i'm not even kidding he's locked in at 275. jesus christ i convinced my parents to refinance a real estate property around that time
too oh good man yeah they locked that in you guys we discussing more good traits
we're talking about basketball and the new york jets now we're talking about mortgage rates welcome chef
lovely
so what what was the conclusion you guys came to i mean the charts kind of look a little bullish unfortunately no it is bullish it is absolutely bullish but uh i i think people are not getting like 4% third-year mortgage rates anytime soon.
But I do think that there is a still drop lower in the mortgage rates to approximately like 5.2.
But yeah, probably not like, you know, like if people are waiting for like 3.5
i'm not sure they are getting it and i do think we will see higher mortgage rates in the coming
uh few years like i i think you you guys will see like nine. Wow. What?
Yeah.
You're going to need those.
There's a lot of people that bought thinking that they were going to be able to lower, you know, refinance their rate too.
Yeah. What happens to those people?
Rekt.
Yeah.
I can remember a scene that talked about this.
The only hope for them is that it takes so long that their wages grow up, that the actual
down payment is much lower than it was when you took the mortgage.
You guys know how it works, right?
Like usually when you take the mortgage, the first year is like, how am I going to pay for this? But
after like, you know, in your 15th or 20th year, suddenly the payment, it is the same in absolute
numbers, but since your wage, you know or uh generally your income grew with inflation to some
degree the payment is much lower compared to to what you're getting so the hope for these people
is that it gets dragged in time which i think it does to some degree so again if you're gonna look
on average you know on average people had their borrow rate at 4%.
Now it's around 6%.
That's definitely much higher.
And I'm sure lots of people who are refinancing can feel it.
But it's still not that devastating.
I think the goal here will be to drop the mortgage rates lower to, again, like 5.2.
Lots of people will be refinanced within with those numbers then we will
probably see much bigger spike in the general yield market therefore the mortgage rates i think
it's going to be due to uh like huge some type of huge inflation, people worrying about fiscal debts, right, and sovereign debts.
And I think the mortgage rate will go up with it to like nine.
Then there will be stress tests.
Some people will have a problem with refinancing, paying it down.
And I think it's going to create a future real estate uh problem to
of some degree but as you drag it out in time again if I look on average which is four percent
between the years of 2011 to 2022 so that's a decade right if I take the middle which is the year 2016. currently you're on a year 10 2026 of your of your uh mortgage
and if this gets dragged out to like 2000 uh 2031 when you hit those levels it's gonna be 15 years
you're in the middle of that mortgage and it's gonna be much more doable it's going to be much more doable. It's still going to be tough.
It's still going to be tough, of course.
Would be nice, and I don't have those stories,
but to have the stories from the 70s.
We all know it's been stagflation,
but I would love to hear stories
but I would love to hear stories how people actually did.
how people actually did.
And we know that
boomers bought the houses
for a summer
part-time job, so it probably
wasn't that bad. But still,
there was probably some stress test
regarding the mortgage rates
going
parabolic.
They just worked hard, man.
You guys don't know how to work hard.
Boom.
Literally engaged in the most speculatively lucrative 60-year period
in the history of markets.
Your generation just doesn't know how to work hard.
Yeah.
You need to work 30 hours a day.
That's it.
And now I need you to buy into this system so that you can give me exit liquidity as I retire.
retire. Thank you, Mr. Boomer. But the thing is that I don't think real estate is going
Thank you, Mr. Boomer.
much lower in absolute terms. The best hope is that it goes sideways in my opinion or like,
you know, 10% fluctuations. Or I do not know. They would have have to like if you think what happened in Dubai and obviously that that place is very volatile but imagine there isn't like you
know some terrorist attack not that I'm calling for it or anything but imagine
something like that happens in the US it would probably do something with the
real estate market what is the index uh case shiller home prices or something like that
do you guys remember the ticket for it that measures the price the the the index price of
real estate in the us i would not know the answer to that i know i have it saved up i don't understand
is like dubai real estate prices are crashing as a people, everyone
all of a sudden realized that Dubai is in the middle of the Middle East.
Oh my God, we're in the middle of a war zone.
Yeah, you're in the Middle East.
Are we trusting that though or is that just some sort of manufactured?
It seems like I cannot help it, Louis.
I think it's really manufactured.
Yeah.
To a big degree because like I'll be a conspiracy theorist here.
But when you think of it, everyone was buying real estate in Dubai.
It was going parabolic in prices.
All of these missiles that hit Dubai,
they didn't hit any strategic building or anything.
There weren't really many damages.
It just hit few places, as far as I know.
And that kind of caused panic, but that's about it.
So I think, I don't know, it seems like a great excuse.
What I did find interesting about Dubai guys
was that they are cracking down on crypto scammers.
That, to me, was always inevitable.
It's not a safe haven third world country. It's like you're going to
get booted out if you're a criminal that thinks they can stow away there. I don't know. There's
like a whole list of crypto influencers that are basically banned from coming back to Dubai now.
The Moon Carl is one of them.
Really?
Yeah.
How did they convict him, Tommy?
Like, what did they say?
Look at your post.
You just are an obvious scammer or like.
Yes.
Well, yes, that's the part that's always been so ironic about people hiding there or hiding out there knowing they committed crimes.
It's like you're literally in one of the most authoritarian areas in the world.
They can turn on a dime and there's nothing that you can do about it.
So, yeah.
Where do these people live now?
That's it. That's the story.
You don't get to appeal, know nothing. It's over.
But where do these people move now?
That's a really good question.
I heard they're all going to uh the czech republic actually
they wouldn't do much much well we are pretty regulated here
i feel like singapore is probably going to get a lot of uh a lot of crypto wealth moving there
but i mean again there that could be the same thing as Dubai because they are pretty strict in Singapore.
Did I tell you guys I saw Carl the Moon and Da Vinci
on an episode of Below Deck?
Do you guys know which show that?
No way.
Yeah, you did.
I remember that story.
They ordered caviar with every meal.
Dude.
That's crazy.
They were actually on an episode or like they were filming it
it was literally no it was literally like carl the moon was like the main charter guest
and like da vinci was one of his guests
yeah why is there no account being called like uh charles the zero
maybe there is a gap in the market
louis to the core
basically
but speaking of moons i want to say the new moon last night. It was. Should we put the moon chart on Bitcoin?
Yeah.
I think we should.
The ancient alpha?
What was the prognosis for the blood moon, Tommy?
I forgot.
It was the last one. I didn't have one personally.
I didn't have one personally.
I think the two big astrological dates this year are like April 21st, at least for me, and then late July. Those are the dates that I'm kind of watching.
And what are they and what do they mean or what is the prognosis?
I want to say April is Uran uranus and gemini i could
be very wrong on that it involves like a negative economic time and then july july is
i can't remember exactly what it is but it involves aquarius which usually when we see that it's like at the very end of a cycle
so we're like at a cycle bottom per se um usually when that happens so that's kind of my thought um
i kind of feel like we could bottom before that April date, speculatively, but we'll see.
Then the range until July and then higher up.
Kind of think so, because May and June are supposed to be pretty favorable months,
but the Astro over the next 30 to 60 days is just not good.
Really more like 30 to 40 days is just not good really more like 30 to 40 50 days well kind of makes sense
because paul is getting fired on may in may so what a coincidence it is kind of a coincidence
but i will also say like the the astrology is fairly favorable for like
coming out of that period which i would say we got kind of lucky about
i was watching i was watching this dude's video like
full review of like what 2026 is supposed to look like. Just like imagine a Turbo Autist Charter,
but as an astrologer, that's what this guy was.
It was very useful, I felt.
Very nice. Well, you're the astro guy in BB,
so always look for Alphavis Tommy.
Your anus is trouble.
Have you guys watched
what Pavel was discussing yesterday?
Yes.
I mean, it wasn't like anything
overly surprising,
I didn't think.
But the fact that I guess multiple members of the
fed aren't really in favor of rate cuts is probably not the best thing for short-term price action
i i've seen the dot plot and it seems like the consensus is no change for like the entire year
right now that'd be crazy but i feel like i i feel like they probably aren't gonna there could be changes to
that maybe after you know we see a little bit more of what happens in the middle east because
i think they're afraid to raise rates with oil prices doing what they're doing right now
they cannot raise rates but they cannot lower them either. Or cut rates, I mean, my bad.
I mean, they can lower them.
I think the new Fed chair is going to cut them,
but probably not as aggressively as some people think.
So I do tend to think that we will see like two additional 0.25% basis point rate cuts this year after he's appointed and then consensus nothing
is my wild assumption
yeah so i have the i have the fomc.plot for 2026,
and seven members are for no rate cut for the whole year.
The other seven are for one rate cut,
and then there's two for two rate cuts,
and then two for three rate cuts,
cuts and one is looking for rate cuts this year.
and one is looking for four rate cuts this year.
So the consensus is kind of no change to one cut for 2026.
But as we know, these change as things go.
So yeah.
Yeah, yeah.
I think they are going to not do do they're probably just going to remain
non-committal until we see oil prices stabilize yeah oil prices do you need to get stabilized i
i think they do around these prices like um i do too like nobody was, like, a month ago, everyone was discussing how, or like two, two maybe by now, but like back then everyone was discussing how oil is going to 40 buck. Now we are above 100 and everyone's calling for like 150. And I mean, yes, it's traded at some part of the world, like for 150, right, depending on the deals they've made and so forth.
But I do not think it's really going to see some crazy shoot up higher.
I think the situation is going to stabilize soon
and then we should prices revert to like 80.
I think so.
But I definitely do think that in the upcoming years,
we will see oil above 200.
But I'm really talking like, you know, the next three, four years.
It's really hard to predict.
Hopefully electric vehicles are practical at that point,
so I don't have to pay for gas.
Yeah.
I mean, they keep getting better so I think by the time the infrastructure is going to be built for
them pretty well and they'll be pretty useful to you and cities they are pretty
good I'm gonna have to scoop some Rivian on on dips as a hedge for that or nio okay isn't what is is x paying uh another electric car vehicle from china
i'm not sure
are you still holding this one jackets yes
they're gonna force everyone to move to EVs.
I mean, if oil goes to 200, then yeah.
Yes.
This has been my long-term thesis, that the way to push people
into EVs is not by government enforcement,
but by making the tech actually you know better and sorry and
obviously with all prices going much higher and yeah you know it's pretty
logical tech will be good oil prices will be pretty expensive and suddenly
people will be like hmm it actually
makes sense now or like you know it might not be like necessarily that like yeah you know evs are
now cheaper and you know like traditional gasoline cars but uh but they can be close and that can be
all that it can be right like people will be like all right this is the future but you're
usually not you're gonna usually you're not gonna downgrade you you wanna you know the next big thing
we can imagine how evs will start to become uh like uh more more used by by more people
and suddenly it will become a status thing right like? Like, it will be like, oh, you're still driving a gasoline car?
I mean, you know, you're pretty poor.
You're poor is what you said.
You said poor, yeah.
I can imagine it's going to be like that, right?
Like, oh, you're still using gasoline car.
At some point, it's going to be like that, right? Like, oh, he's still using gasoline car. Like, what a new...
At some point, it's going to be like that.
And I think people will be incentivized to use EVs more and more.
So, you know, like, again, if you look at charts like this,
it's going to be pretty obvious a few years down the line,
but obviously the
market's forward looking um it uh it pumped heavily in 2021 when everything was pumping
then went down the entire way now it's accumulating uh and you have all going for it so
all going for it so
makes sense to me i mean this this does look pretty good honestly not to mention
that two evs are being pushed in czech republic right now from china
and it's uh byd and nio byd that's that's what it was i knew there was
no it's this is not the thicker it's very it's uh
uh double d and uh y you have it there yeah this one yeah they look pretty similar though
i'd rather buy neo
yeah Yeah.
I don't know.
I think having a gas car might be a flex at some point, though.
It will, but probably not with a basic car, right? If you're going to have a sports car or some type of you know like something special then yes it's gonna be flex but uh it's gonna be like you know
like with watches and phones sort of like people people all people suddenly stopped using uh watches
now then everyone you know was flexing with phones.
And then people slowly started to get back to either very expensive watches from Switzerland and stuff.
Or they are using now digital watches, like smart watches.
Maybe something like that.
Yeah, I just don't want the government to be able to turn my car off
you know
I know
that's definitely a risk
like a grid you can drive in and that's it
I know man
the dystopian shit is crazy
when you think about it
Jesus what is the movie with, I believe,
Tom Cruise? Do you remember? Mission Impossible? Yeah, that definitely. By the way, most of Mission
Impossible was recorded in Prague. Lots of it. Yeah, but that's not the movie I was going to
discuss. Let me actually, wait, give me one one sec because that's exactly what you just talked
about yeah wait let me look that up i'll find a movie um oblivion no that's minority report
it's gonna be minority report yes exactly that's That's the one. And if you remember, there were the self-driving cars.
Like you just sit in and it was just going over the rails.
You didn't even have to drive it, right?
And it was going sometimes even like vertical and stuff.
But it's another story.
But yeah, they basically...
Like when they found out he's in the car,
they stopped the car for him yeah
I'm gonna keep a gas car always
whether it's a truck or something
just to have
yeah
have you seen Demolition Man with Sylvester Stallone
I don't know
it's probably one of the most uh predicting movies in history like it predicted so much
stuff that in the 90s was like unimaginable and nowadays it's part of our lives, basically. I highly recommend you watch it. Wesley Snipes and Silvestri. Yeah, 1993.
Yeah, I need to see this.
You do.
That was great.
And I think part of the society in the future will be, well, I do not want to spoil anything,
but like eating red burgers and finding them to be very tasty.
You had me in the favor.
Okay. finding them to be very tasty. You had me in favor. Or Judge Dredd.
That could be a predictor.
I've been drunk since 10-10, working well.
I've been drunk since 10-10, working well.
If we could, I would probably invest in Doona 3.
Not sure about you guys,
but it's my number one watch list for this year.
Yeah.
I'm going to watch that...
What is the Ryan Gosling one next week or whatever?
Or tomorrow, maybe?
Hail Mary.
Is that right?
I think it is.
I think Ryan Gosling is like number one actor right now.
I feel like every second movie that comes out is with Ryan.
No, I'm definitely going to watch
it now.
It's the movie, yeah, Project Hail Mary.
I was thinking of going
on that to the cinema,
didn't at the end.
Absolute cinema. but didn't at the end absolute cinema crazy Crazy. It's literally just, what's that movie?
I know.
Ready Player One.
Yes, Ready Player One.
Bullish game stuff.
Yeah, you know what i found crazy lots of the movies predicted so much stuff but there is one thing that no movie has predicted do you know what it is like we saw computers everywhere right
we saw like you know people in flying cars, stuff like that.
And that is becoming a thing now in China, flying cars.
But in no movie, they had smartphones.
You mean like before early 2000s, basically?
Yeah, before smartphones were a thing.
Yeah.
There were no smartphones being predicted.
Hmm.
And I often ask myself the question, like... Metaverse.
Is it because people know something, so they put it in the movies?
Or is it because it is in the movies so that then people
try to invent it sort of like chicken or egg and i think sometimes like i think steven spielberg you
know knows lots of stuff that is probably like hidden from the public but at the same time i
think there is also stuff that nobody knows about, like the smartphones.
Yeah, I'd have to agree. Spy Kids had a smart launch. Those were great movies. Antonio Banderas.
Or this.
Yeah.
Soon. Soon enough. Be a big flex.
Tommy, you got... Oh, Tommy. Tommy's gone.
I was gonna ask about the options expo. Oh, there is Tommy. Tommy, what do you think about the comment here?
Sorry, my internet is doing shit. I think it's because the
electricity in the building is having some issues. I promise it's not me.
I don't really have any thoughts on the Bitcoin options expiry, to be honest. I really haven't
I really haven't been looking at it but i still
think on a general level like devol terabits measure of bitcoin volatility is still a really
good indication of of the trend in the market if we can break below the market structure that's
supporting it right now which i would say is like 45 to 50 ish, then I think
Bitcoin's probably resumed a new uptrend. And if it can't, then I think people is going higher and
Bitcoin is going lower. So I'm not really paying attention to the options expiry itself, although
it's a quarterly op X, so it's going to be a big one. And in the same way with equities, when you see that much positioning come off,
you let volatility have a little bit more freedom to move.
I imagine the same is true for Bitcoin.
Nice.
But I don't have anything specifically about this options expiration.
On the last leg that we had down, Darabit got destroyed.
They got absolutely destroyed.
If you look at where the OI came from on our move down to 60K,
I think a lot of the coins came from Darabit,
which tells me that options market makers are still short vol.
And when vol spikes, it's like that self-reinforcing gamma.
I hate using that word, but gamma, because it's overused.
It's like that self-reinforcing positioning in the market
where volatility rises and market makers have to
take on more positioning to cover their basis but yeah i uh i can't wait to take devol off my watch
list i will say that what do you what do you think is going to be the number one go-to
platform in crypto for options do you think it's going to be robinhood or
deribit or does deribit become bitfinex that's a well so deribit actually got acquired by coinbase
interestingly enough a few months ago i don't know what the number one options platform for crypto is going to be, but maybe it's TradFi related would be my guess.
I have had mixed experiences with Darabit.
Liquidity when you need it, right?
When you're right in a big way, at least on October 10th,
like there was no liquidity to be able to close options out into. So I stopped using the platform
after that. I think it'll probably be, so here's my prediction. It'll probably either be a TradFi
brokerage or maybe it's Hyperliquid a few years in the future because right now Hyperliquid
obviously have equity perps. The next step
for them is prediction markets
and they've already talked about this and I have to
wonder if at some point options
end up getting included in that as well.
But you said Hype
is going to partner with Kalshi.
No? Oh, sorry
Polymarket. I don't know if it'll
do that. I think they should.
It's probably for the benefit of both parties that they do that.
That would be huge.
Yeah, absolutely. It would be massive.
Because Polymarket needs a better way to get liquidity to some of these markets.
a better way to get liquidity to some of these markets and hyperliquid probably doesn't want to
build out an entire prediction market infrastructure by itself maybe they do i mean they're they're the
most ambitious team in crypto so but yeah They call themselves...
What is it?
They're trying to house all of finance on Hyperliquid.
I have to imagine at some point options will come into play there.
That would be cool.
It would also put everything on chain.
So, like, a lot of transparency about market positioning.
I think that would be a good, I generally think that would be a good thing.
Tell me, do you watch any hype data for decision making regarding the market direction?
You mean like for the coin or just on the exchange?
Like for example, just specific hype funding
or stuff like that?
I don't look at it as much as I used to,
but it's obviously a little bit more of a retail exchange.
So if funding is more skewed in one direction on that,
then I will take note
but yeah i um i haven't really been using it as much for that recently
i think the better thing to do is to look at uh some of the profitable vaults on Hyperliquid and see how they're positioning in the market.
At least that's what I was doing at one point last year over the summer. I just opened up a one-year hyperliquid funding, one year, and it's actually negative on ease.
I think it might be negative on HITE also. Yeah.
Oh, on HITE itself.
It's so weird.
No, I mean, like, the coin might have negative funding.
I could be wrong on that.
Yeah.
They do not have it listed.
What I will say is often very useful
is looking at how the HLP is positioned
at least like
directionally
it can give you a good gauge of like
what is the house long or short
maybe because it's stretched
maybe because there's a funding arbitrage
but the HLP book long or short, maybe because it's stretched, maybe because there's a funding arbitrage,
but the HLP book has consistently made money for years now.
So I think generally it's pretty good. but I don't look at it as much as I used to.
Jeez, they have 187 positions open right now.
Who's that?
The HLP.
Who's that? None of the positions are very big, so it's not super actionable right now
who's the hlp hyper liquid uh liquidity provider
it's basically like a market neutral or a delta neutral arbitrage pool um so that you mark yeah you like stake your
usdc in there provide liquidity to the exchange and in return there has been like this insane
yield on it um i want to say it's up like it's up garrillions since the inception but obviously as more liquidity
enters that pool the alpha
has dropped pretty consistently
looking at the last month's
APY it was only 1%
oh wow
on October 10th they made a
freaking killing though
so that's interesting
the HLP went up 50%
damn damn that's interesting the HLP went up 50% damn yeah I'm checking the coin glass
data but a surf funding is the most negative uh as the history goes on uh it only goes back to to
june 2023 but it's the most negative since then i wonder if it was more negative during svb
let me uh look at coin so probably
so probably
oh it was uh oh wait you said svb or sbf
svb it was it was more negative during svb the most negative it ever got was uh
i guess code that doesn't really count because it wasn't a super sophisticated derivatives market. It was the merge.
That makes sense.
That was so funny.
I remember seeing that funding
and I was like, well,
we're probably going to squeeze these shorts out of the market, right?
I remember getting long ETH and then as soon as the merge was over,
funding immediately went back to neutral, and I'm thinking, oh, boy,
longs might be in trouble.
And we knew shortly after.
I really don't miss trading 2022.
No. I really don't miss trading 2022. I really don't miss trading that period.
I hope you'll be able to say that about the current time as well.
I mean, most of the stuff I don't really, I'm not enjoying trading.
trading and I'm so I'm not trading it really I'm just kind of sitting on my hands have you guys
So I'm not trading it really.
I'm just kind of sitting on my hands.
this is quite big one I suppose last chart shared and we kind of wrap it up but look at Seoul here sol here uh definitely the largest period of negative funding down here since uh since
these lows right down here prior to this
very nice
i still i still wouldn't buy soul but uh i'm not buying soul but but i do think that uh
there's a decent chance this this turns into something like that
i'm looking at the soul funding from when it went to $8, and it's absolutely hilarious.
Oh, my God.
Zero?
It's like negative, minus 2.5%.
That's just outrageous.
Oh, I guess that was actually the FTX crash.
That makes sense.
Yeah, that makes sense.
Yeah.
Oh, yeah, I see that.
That's nuts.
Outrageous, man.
And then Nomad put the bottom in on Soul at $8.
Fun fact, if you didn't already know that.
I wonder what he's up to these days.
Crypto's first market maker.
Up gorillians.
But yeah, that's probably a good spot for us to wrap the show up.
Hopefully you guys have a great rest of your day.
Great rest of your week.
We'll be back tomorrow though, for another episode of market check,
a reminder that we do these shows all throughout the week on the following
days when the New York stock exchange is open Monday, Wednesday,
Thursday, and Friday. Yes, we know the stock,
the New York stock exchange is also open on Tuesday,
but market check is not live on Tuesday.
Regardless, though, we start these shows around 1130 a.m. Eastern Standard.
So we'll catch you guys again at that time tomorrow morning, I guess, or evening if you are a European.
Of course, we also have Market Talk hosted by the legendary King Wabi. That is an X
Spaces, not just hosted by Wabi, but also the Because Bitcoin account on X. So if you're trying
to find the spaces, that will be the best place to do so. Our typical start time is around 3.45
PM EST. So make sure to catch Wabi and a whole gang of new characters every day on MarketCheck,
especially when we have great volatility in the market, as I think we'll probably have after this week.
You're going to want to tune into Market Talk.
I'm sure those spaces are going to be incredibly entertaining.
And hopefully we've got some great debates going as well.
But yeah, see you guys tomorrow.
Thank you, as always, for tuning in and of course
stay safe
