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PREDICTION MARKET BUBBLE? 🚨Web3Exposed🧼🎙️
Recorded: Dec. 3, 2025 Duration: 1:45:21Space Recording
Short Summary
In a lively discussion, crypto enthusiasts explored the current market dynamics, highlighting trends in Bitcoin and Solana's price movements, the potential for growth in user adoption, and the implications of government interventions on the cryptocurrency landscape.
Full Transcription
Thank you. Jump in spaces, William.
Thank you, thank you.
Let's get it.
I'm ready to hear about these fucking
these shorts
these longs
I didn't
Will told me the long
I didn't get in in time
been locked in
I know he's happy
let's get it guys
let's fucking get it
another day uh No, he's happy. Let's get it, guys. Let's fucking get it.
Another day.
I look fucking crazy right now, bro.
I look fucking insane.
Yo, I hope you guys are fucking ready for today.
I hope you're ready for today. I have so much energy just built up that I need to express this shit.
We're going to jump into it in about
five minutes or less. Will's in here. He got a lot of alpha for us. He's telling us where
the market is going exactly. So we about to get this shit. Let's get it. Let's get it.
Oh my god I I made enough for two niggas, boy, stunt double.
Famous like a drug, yeah, I'll take it to my job, but I never, ever trip.
Peace, happiness, and love, I got money in these jeans, so they fit me kinda snug.
Plus, the game is in my pocket, nigga, this is what I do.
I always buy whatever, man.
Fuck what they be talking about?
Their opinion doesn't count.
It's the only thing that matters.
Oh, so we do it how we do it. All up in the basement right, just push through it I'll be up all night, hope moves in here, I don't really know who I'ma lose this year
Oh, man, I love my team, man, I love my team, I would die for the fuck it's all
With Bizzy say, kidda, I'm a kidda, I got that out of the house Busy state hitter, I'm a hitter I got that kinda money make a broke bitch bidder
I got that kinda
Ay, ay, fixate
Rich bitch you know made a million off a mixtape
Devils just a keep state
With the president, the Louis presidential briefcase
Never been a cheat state
We got the walks, I ain't talkin' bout the peach state
Man for pizza, it's rad ass sweet steaks
Fuck I look like, huh?
I look like this and it looks like no
I'm a bad bitch, I ain't never been a mixed breed
On a diet, but I'm doing donuts in a 6B
M-M-6, they're from the M-School
I see a lot of rap bitches on the menu
But I collect a hundred down at the venue.
And pop ponders with my team, young money to the dump
for me.
I'm about whatever man.
Fuck the day we're talking about.
They're being dustin' down.
We the only thing about the size.
So we do it, how we do it.
All up in the basement, I ain't just fucking throwing.
I'll be up on my own boots and real. I don't really know who I'm. all right well we're about to throw throw it up you can put your charts up you can put your
charts up if you guys are in the spaces pull up to the live uh we're about to stream there in about
what two two seconds i'm about to click go live i'm about to click go live. I'm about to click go live.
So bring that ass if you want some visuals.
Definitely pull up.
Let's see here.
Hey, guys, do me a favor. And even the other listeners who are so anonymous, as if I don't have a connect that X telling me who my other listeners are.
Like, comment, reposted space.
Thank you very much.
That helps awareness.
I appreciate it.
Shout out to the homie Laser Ace.
I see you down there, brother.
Thank you for the keychains.
Still waiting for them in the mail.
I'm sure they're in the mail.
I just got to go check.
So thank you.
Can't wait to make a post.
Levi, I see you there, buddy.
Fucko.
Fucko, fucko.
Hope you're well.
Hope you're well.
All right, let's get this out.
Share this out.
Bring your friends in this motherfucker.
Bring your friends in this motherfucker. Bring your friends in this motherfucker.
All right, hold on.
Let me invite some friends in this motherfucker.
Let's get it.
Let's get it.
Let's get it.
Now make it.
Let me out.
Go ahead.
Take co-host, Will.
Take co-host.
Take co-host. Take coho's take coho take coho all right
let's get it let's go live let's go live in this hole
every time will does good in a trade he shaves his beard i don't know if it's a thing he has
with himself and then when i see him fully bearded out i'm like oh he's trading bad right now he's
not bearded out i think he's i think he's having good trades right now. He's not laughing or looking at me, so I don't know if he can hear me.
Or my joke is just not that funny.
Maybe that's also what it is.
Oh, there's a smirk.
There's a smirk.
There's a smirk.
Yo, welcome to the show.
Welcome to the show.
You're now tuned in to Web3 Exposed.
Thank you very much.
Yo, we pull up and go live every single day right here at 7 o'clock on X and Twitch.
If you haven't already, go ahead and like, comment, repost the space.
Thank you very much. Helps out the algorithm.
Really want to jump into all the cool shit happening on the timeline.
Not gonna lie, I don't see that much cool shit.
But, um, hold on, let me see something.
Let me see something. Hold on.
Am I good? Can you guys hear me? Throw me an emoji real fast before I continue.
Let me know, please. Am I cutting i cutting out on spaces will or on the stream
can you guys hear me mic check good all right we're good
awesome thank you um yeah let's jump into it anyway that that definitely a big fucking
week if you're gonna be in miami if you're here for our basil welcome to miami welcome to all the
traffic uh you're bugging anyway but definitely pull out to beat basil thursday and friday at
fun dimension it's gonna be super fun make sure you rsvp beatbasil.com. There's still a few tickets left for VIP. There's also
these special beat pretty much tickets that I threw in free drinks and it's literally 10
fucking dollars. Where the hell are you going to get one drink in Miami for $10? I don't know,
but I'm giving you two. There you go. Take advantage of that. I'm really fucking stoked.
Got a lot of special guests. Got a lot of cool shit happening.
Shout out to the league. Shout out to all the cool people that is going to be a part of it.
I'm really, really stoked. If you guys don't know, the league is a huge entity out in LA.
They're known for hosting different sports games like soccer, basketball. You had Justin Bieber
playing in a recent game of theirs. I think Neon is going to be playing in a game. I'm not sure.
Don't quote me.
But, dude, they're plugged.
They're connected.
They got motion.
And I'm more than excited to put out this activation.
I also can't believe I'm fucking spending what I'm spending to build out a basketball court for less than 24 hours.
But, hey, we're fucking here.
We're here and we're happy.
Will, I don't know if you're able to speak on spaces,
so just maybe do a mic check in a second
because it looks like you're not on stage.
But yeah, as I continue on,
I do appreciate all the likes, the comments, and the repost.
At 100 comments, we're giving away $100.
That's right, at 100 comments,
the same person can comment 50 times.
100 comments, I'm picking a lucky person.
Actually, I'm picking two lucky people to get $50 each.
That's amazing.
In this economy, get the fuck out of here, dude.
Are you serious?
So thank you very much.
Will, mic check real quick on spaces.
You want to just see if you're good?
If not, I'm going to have to bring you back.
I don't want to deal with that.
Yeah, he can't hear me.
All right, I'm going to gonna remove you bring you back story of my fucking life
um yeah anyway it's looking like an rwa fucking season that's all i gotta say everybody can't
keep their fucking mouth and energy off of Pokemon. I'm talking about the people that
was fading, talking all this shit. Now that's all the fuck that y'all could talk about. Very fucking
funny. So Will is the only person in life that has problems with X. I swear to God, dude.
Literally the only person. There's also some tricks that i'll say that you
probably didn't learn yet will and i'll tell you the tricks right now the tricks are um
basically you cannot jump in in and out of wi-fi so that's for one you got to jump into spaces on
one wi-fi take your vpn off second trick is not being in another app while I'm expecting you on
stage. So if I have you on stage coming up and you requested, you should be on it. Actually,
you shouldn't be in a different app. There's like a lot of dumb little shit. I don't know. Maybe you
follow all the rules, Will. I don't fucking know. But I'll say that. So definitely bring your ass
back so I can now present you on the stage please thank you um but yo this is the
best time to request to get on stage so please go ahead and do so if you haven't um this is actually
the best time to get cursed out as well so if you have something slick to say if you want to troll
me pull up just be ready for this fucking wrath because my head is spinning and I'm running in a
million miles an hour at the moment and And nothing better than dealing with just absolute shitheads when it comes to business, right?
It is what it is, right? This is the life I chose.
This is the life I chose.
Y'all gonna get it from me, bro. I'm in fucking event mode.
I'm in fucking event mode right now, dog.
Anyway, welcome to the show very
excited to get will here i know he's a busy guy let's jump right into it will give me all the
market sentiment talk to me about solana dropping a 123 and now shooting back up to 140 today
let's jump into it will welcome to the show brother thank you take it away sir oh man how
many things i could say about this app?
It's not even funny.
I absolutely fucking hate this app.
This is literally the worst app.
If you've ever co-hosted, it's the worst app in the world.
It's going viral, so we don't even have to click spaces.
They just come to Twitch, and they just watch us, dog.
I'm working on it.
I'm working on it, okay?
I'm working on it.
The fact that I had to spend 10 minutes every time at the start
to come in and out and in and out and in and out
because it says you're muted by host,
even though I'm co-host, is absolute dog shit.
It's horrible.
Just had to say that.
It's really frustrating to have to deal with this.
But yeah, so, and again, not anybody else's fault here.
Just shut up. But yeah, so again, not anybody else's fault here.
Just shut up.
All right, so we'll get kind of into the market a little bit.
So obviously, we had a nice little bounce today. A lot of people talking 50K, 60K.
I absolutely hope that you shorted below 85 and got completely liquidated.
If that's the case, I hope it took out your entire portfolio
and you learned a lesson.
Don't short demand zones.
And that sounds asinine, but it's like the amount of people
that have been sitting out here dooming, it's absurd.
It's absolutely absurd.
Every account on this app was basically calling like 30K, 35K, 60K.
And some people are still believing that that's the case, right? They're still saying that that's what's going to happen.
The reality is, it's like markets don't go down in a straight line and you're absolutely being fooled if you think it does.
And a lot of people in this app basically take
advantage of other people they really do like it's like okay we're going down let's keep talking
doomer people will pay attention they'll keep clicking on my posts looking for updates of how
deep we're going and then some you know ridiculous rally starts coming out of nowhere and starts
obliterating short side positions because guess what
everybody shorted demand because they were told at 80k they're going 35 so they're like okay i
didn't short from 125 to 80 so i could take this from 80 to 35 no no you can't you can't
this is a demand range you're going to get blown out. And if you're in a short, you're going to likely get liquidated before this is over.
If you're upside down on that short, I really doubt we're going to go back down and revisit that wick low, at least right now.
Right.
And likely this market's going to push up to 100K.
And I've been talking about this for, I don't know, a couple of weeks now.
I keep getting pushed back by different random people on experts, whatever,
just people on the internet.
And if we get up to 100K, I can almost bet anybody who leveraged trading
in the 85 is getting liquidated.
I can almost bet that that's exactly what's going to happen.
So if you're in a short side position, take that with a grain of salt
or keep thinking that price is going to
come back down and you're going to get out of this situation that you shorted demand.
So basically we ranged into a demand range low, right? Which was previous consolidation high,
which is where we bounced off of the low here, which was basically, you know, the 74K. That was
the range of the demand. Now you're probably like, well, well, we didn't hit 74K. That was the range of the demand.
Now you're probably like,
well, we didn't hit 74K.
So why are you saying 74K?
Because above the 74K range,
which we used the previous high again at 74K as support,
we basically had a consolidation range,
which ranged all the way up from 89 to the 74K range, right? Retest of the previous high.
And that's a bullish structure, basically. If you can retest the previous liquidity range,
you can bounce off and you can run. It's the same thing over here. So if we come over here,
for those who are wondering what I'm talking about, I am streaming. So you can just go over
and look at the video. But you can see right here basically this was the range high right here
this is the range low we basically retested demand right again same thing over here range high
range low we retested demand and now what a lot of bears were were pitching to people on and now
granted you know i'm not saying structure hasn't broken here but what i am saying is is that you should always expect the bounce right you shouldn't be just keep
telling people over and over and over you're going to keep just rolling right and you're just going
to dump and dump and dump and dump and you can just short this market all the way down it doesn't
work like that uh market sets up traps at different levels hold on hold on by the way
spaces has been fucking up all
day i was in space my bad well i was in spaces and shit was also laggy if you don't want to miss
anything we'll saying go to the stream right now go to the stream right now right now right now
and you'll get visuals so go to the stream as well if you if you don't want to miss anything
i know it's annoying i was listening earlier and i was like thinking i was getting removed from spaces and shit it's it's not us it's spaces so if you do
want to like not miss anything um please go to the stream real quick we'll continue
so basically we we broke structure up here because we didn't use previous high as support right we
broke into that range now what a lot of people aren't
really understanding is the structure is still intact. It's still not broken for say. It's broke,
but it's not broken. What does that mean? That means that this market could likely see a high
sweep, which means we could push much higher, but it'll likely turn into a sweep versus like,
you know, just a continuation pattern. So what does a sweep look like? That could push us to 145, it could push
us to 155, 165, whatever, right? But what likely what that will do is we'll sit up there for a
little bit, consolidate, and then we'll distribute at a certain point. That's what a sweep does.
But what that will also do is absolutely blow out every short in the market because there's a lot of people who have been shorting all the way down.
And I don't mean from the high, I mean from the breakdown.
Right. And so the market's going to rebalance those breakdown shorts and they're going to come back and wipe them out.
That's what a lot of people aren't really understanding because breakdown shorts basically got greedy.
They didn't want to take profit. They got pulled into short thinking they're going to get to 30K.
And this is always the problem with a lot of people.
They're not looking at structure.
They're just thinking, oh, I shorted close enough to the top that I'm safe.
And you're never safe in a market leverage trading.
You're never safe in a position leverage trading.
So you should always take it from level to level.
And you should leverage trade in from level to level and you
should leverage trade in from one level and leverage straight out to the next that's kind of
what i'm doing right now with you know solana is i'm leverage trading the low and i'm leverage
trading into the next resistance and i'm cutting the position i'm not looking to get all the way
to the top and again just fell back into range. Now we fell down below this consolidation range. We broke that consolidation range, right? Now, what did we do here that kind of obstructed the structure and made me think that we were going to push back up again?
Audi candles are more important than wicks.
Wicks, at the end of the day, as a trader,
some people are going to think wicks have more power than they do.
So people are going to understand that candles have more power than wicks
by a long shot.
So for those who don't know, candles are the agreed upon price.
That's where bears and bulls agree upon price ranges.
And wicks are typically price ranges that get pushed into certain places
that basically show how deep liquidity is, right?
On both ends, high and low.
So think of like Wix as like a way to kind of look at where liquidity lies at the low and where liquidity lies at the high.
But the body is the agreed upon price.
That's where market makers say, okay, this is where people like to buy.
And this is typically where they'll stop.
And this is where people like to sell.
And this is typically where they'll stop.
There's a bid below the body candle there.
There's a sell above the body candles up here, essentially.
So we fell kind of in between two ranges.
So we fell in between previous consolidation range and previous consolidation range.
And we found a bid, right?
How do we know we find a bid?
Because price was able to push this candle all the way back up to the high of these body candles right here, right?
And we got the close above that range.
And then we got another body candle open, and that open pushed us back up to the low of this body candle range.
And now we're kind of pushing, and then we fell back into this range, right?
But we continue to float above this body candle range still,
and we're pushing into the low of this body candle range.
Does that mean that we go up tomorrow, next week, two weeks from now?
Who knows when we go up?
But the point being is that we're catching a bid here.
So if we're catching a bid here, there's likely price interest.
So if there's price interest, what do you typically see?
You'll see market makers want to mark up until they start to see no more bid left, right?
And then market makers will mark down.
So the hard part is, can you get the market enticed to flip that 100K range?
That's the point that we have to kind of look at.
So for me, it's kind of like, okay, when we get to 100K,
now you're probably like, well, Will, that green line right there is above 100K.
Yeah, it is.
Why do I say 100K?
Because 100K is right here, right?
You're going to start catching resistance right here.
You're going to start catching resistance right up here. So you got to start, you know, if you're in a leveraged position, you got to start leveraging out of that position at the next resistance. So 100K for me is the next resistance, even though we're looking at this as the real flip range.
108, you base and close up here, you basically flip the range.
Now you can get that high sweep that can push you to a higher high and markets can go a lot
higher, right?
And you'll probably get some kind of like altcoin blow off, a bunch of other stuff kind of
happening.
And I'll show you with ETH BTC because that's getting pretty interesting in itself overall.
But basically you fell into this range.
We're finding price action between these two consolidation ranges.
And what we'll likely see is a markup and that markup should push us up to
this previous consolidation range.
High again,
pushing into a hundred K taking the leverage trade up.
And then,
you know,
from there cutting the leverage trade and we'll see what kind of where
markets go,
if they want to flip the range or not.
And if they flip the range,
they'll go bullish.
The problem is that they don't flip the range.
What you'll likely get is a lower high structure, maybe some kind of shutdown around 100K.
Body candles will shut down below these body candles.
And that'll basically create a lower, kind of a lower high structure on the right side.
But what we like to call that is a head and shoulders, right?
So there's a couple of different things that could play out here.
You can get a head and shoulders on this side, or you're going to get a high sweep, right?
This is just my perspective right now
and what I think we'll see.
That's your head and shoulders set up right there.
If they get in, and likely this shoulder
will probably come a little bit short, right?
So this will be your shoulder on your left.
This is your head.
And likely you'll get some kind of right shoulder at a lower sweep around 100K if that's where they want to go.
Now what happens if they sweep 100K and they roll?
They sweep 100K and they roll.
You'll see price action start to reprice down.
You'll push back down to these lows.
That'll be bearish.
You start getting bearish.
Then the market will typically bounce around that range. And then you'll see some kind of these lows that'll be bearish you start getting bearish then the market
will typically bounce around that range and then you'll see some kind of repricing like that
right and then you'll push back into previous highs that's basically what will happen here
and now people talk at 35k you're hot you're absolutely fucking hot like that's like the 10k
bears over here right that we're talking about we're going to 10K because we're going to reprice here.
So they were saying, oh yeah, 10K here.
We're going to sweep this.
And this is where the market's going.
Market never even came close, right?
I think we bottomed out around like 15.8, 15.9,
something like that.
Likely what you'll see here at best
is you'll see a reprice in the like 50 at best if if if you start
going bearish now again i'm giving you kind of the if this then that right now people should be
market neutral but you should be playing the bull side bull side is in play right now so take the
bull side and then run with it and just know where to cut your bull side play right so this is your
stop out that's your rundown.
If they're going to run it down
and then if they're going to flip it back up,
then at that point, you're going to see a sweep,
which is going to push markets up to the high.
You'll get a higher high
and then you'll reprice back down again anyways, right?
But the other thing too that I'm kind of seeing here which is pretty interesting is
rsi if you look at the the weekly daily right weekly is nearly floored daily has been floored
we're just kind of seeing a bounce back out of it which is my only concern is we're under the 50
right if we stay under the 50 on the daily we can reject up the 50 and roll back down, which means more consolidation before breakout. And on the
monthly timeframe, we're playing just above the 50, right? But we could still come down, but we are
kind of in a downtrend here, right? On strength. We've been in a downtrend while continuing to
ignore it because each pump up has been a higher move right
even though we're losing more and more and more momentum as we've been doing it and we continue
to keep on pushing back up and keep and this this right here could be one more sweep with a lower
high on rsi but a higher high on structure if they want to do it but, this is kind of how I think people should look at
Bitcoin. You should be very neutral with the market right now. And just understand like,
what I would tell people, if you want my honest opinion is I wouldn't, I wouldn't be buying
anything above 100k. Right? What I would be doing is I'd bid under the 100k range. And then once
you start getting into the 100k range, start scaling out.
That's what I would be doing.
I think that's the best way to kind of approach this,
at least for right now,
and then kind of see where things go, right?
They could go higher, they could go lower,
but you should be ideally scaling out.
Now, what I mean by scaling out
doesn't mean sell your entire bag.
It means like as prices get marked up,
like here's an instance of what I, what I've done with some coins. I'll give you an
instance, kind of an idea. So I put like 20 K into a coin, right? That coin gets a 25 K. I take 5 K
off. That coin gets a 25 K again. I take 5 K off. That coin gets a 5 K 25 K again. I take 5 K off.
That coin gets a 25 K again. I take 5 K off that coin gets to 25k again i take 5k off so i'm scaling out the
profits right every time my bag goes up to a certain point i scale off a certain percentage
of that point and then i just lead that initial in there the whole time and keep scaling out money
and then even if that 20k were to come back down to like 2k or 3k by the time i've done that so
many times i'm up like 50k right on the play so it didn't even matter at the end of the day that
that that came down because i kept on scaling off of that position while continuing to hold the same
position i had initially i don't know if that makes sense to everybody, but it's kind of a thought process
behind a kind of a strategy that I use.
So that's kind of a way to approach this,
at least right now.
Now, ETH BTC, this is kind of an interesting spot
because right here, it's the same lows, right?
Same lows we had previously.
This kind of ran our altcoin season.
Right here, it was a little more sketchy over here in 2020 going to 2021. But really, we're kind of in that position. Right. Right. Before we went into 2021. And this is a one, two, three, four or five month play. Right. If they want to, if they really want to, we've already drawn down quite a bit we could draw down a little bit
more and they could run this up in three months right we could be running this out to like march
for instance if they if they want to run this market up i think it's going to be hot and fast
personally i don't think we're going to have like a six month seven month run i think this last part
is going to be really quick and so you just got to kind of pick your winners from there and don't
chase shit once it starts popping off.
Just be safe about stuff right now.
I think there's a lot of opportunity out there.
You just got to be kind of in the opportunity.
And one of the things, too, with Solana, just like I talked about, I've talked to you guys about this for a couple months now with Solana, right?
More than a couple months.
I would say like six months to a year we've been
talking about solana and i've told you guys every single time you come to this low just bid the low
or leverage trade it every time you come to the high sell the high or leverage trade it short it
down and it's it's been a killer trade this is again this is one of the one of the plays i took
the low of the low side trade on for a long side play.
And hey, it's working out great.
I'm up like 140% on this play.
And then Rivian, Rivian's looking really good too.
We got the close above the resistance range, which is right here, right?
So the previous resistance was right around 1650.
We got the close above that.
Body candle close.
It closed out at 1688. And then we
got the open right on that line, right? So 1650. And then we're kind of hovering at the 1723 right
now. So Rivian's looking really good. This thing looks like it wants to rip hard. Definitely
something to keep your eye on. R looks really solid too coming out of that very
bearish uh oversold momentum into decent momentum now and now we're kind of looking like you know
we start hitting above the 50 here this thing's gonna start ripping hard i'm seeing rivians
everywhere bro like everywhere well there's a lot of people who don't like tesla now right
no pun intended and they're trying to find alternatives and ribbons
are really good alternative i would say to tesla if they don't if they don't like tesla right
again i don't i don't really play into the whole politics shit but i know some people do and they
will literally go out of their way not to buy tesla and so but they still want to keep their
you know their green new deal stuff and so they'll buy things like rippin and so on and so but they still want to keep their you know their green new deal stuff and so they'll buy things like rapiness on so forth so i i think this company is a really good competitor too
if you look at the tech look at what they got on they're not as tech heavy as tesla but they're
definitely a competitive when it comes to the ev markets um yeah i'd say overall though you know
again just looking at ap tc looks solid looks like we can get a little alt run here.
And then looking at Bitcoin, Bitcoin looks good.
Solana bottomed right where it should have bottomed.
ETH is kind of in a weird spot.
I'm not going to lie.
I'm not going to sit here and bullshit, but like it definitely retested bull trend, right?
Retested bull trend perfectly, 2600.
And then now we're kind of pushing off of that.
You know, if we catch
resistance i'd say about 3600 that's what i would look for a resistance if they want to they could
flip it if they flip 3600 it can keep going higher but 3600 is the next resistance where i'd be
looking um if they run straight through that expect expect higher definitely expect higher
and then i see a bunch of people crying about z cashash too. Dude, 100K is the new $3,500, bro.
That's just it.
So I was looking at numbers.
I made that tweet to profits,
and I was looking at some historical facts on users and wallets.
So in 2018, during the winter, right,
after the big run-up and run-down, back to the 3, right, like after the big run up and run down back to like the three and four range,
that 3,000, 4,000 range, there was about 30 million wallets, right?
About four. The funny thing is about the same daily active users.
So that's so like basically the day traders have stayed about the same.
Maybe they're trading more liquid, but they're about the same amount of users.
And then today we have about 480 million to 500 million, 500 million users.
So the question I asked myself is like, can Bitcoin grow to 2 billion users in the next,
in the next, you know, like three to four years.
And I think that's like almost for certain.
And so when it grows to that point, like, I mean, there's, i think like a really good a really good growth
growth trajectory there i mean if you look at that like that's pretty much what's going to drive
the next leg up and then sustain us at this point i think like there's enough users in the pot that
understand that this isn't a short short man's game or a short-term game that like you know not
in our circles or like in crypto twitter, but like the random, you know,
350 million people that got Bitcoin,
they didn't buy it to sell it tomorrow, right?
So like we can say as those people
are added to this basket,
I think this $100,000 range
that they came in at, right?
A lot of these new players came in
on this run up and, you know,
and I think like it's gonna,
this price range is gonna stick for a while.
Whether it runs up past it, it it comes back down it'll still land like right within this range
i think like when i'm looking at the chart looking at the historical data it looks like that's a safe
bet for for me to make um you know i can only speak for myself but that's how i'm thinking about it
yeah i mean i look at the end of the day 80 80K, 60K, you know, what's a few K amongst friends?
Now, if you're talking 125K and you bought there.
But you remember how long it sat in that 3,500 range for, right?
Like, it felt like we were locked there forever.
But, like, you know, if you had been in, like, the $350 range, like, that range felt great for one, right?
It was a good place to be.
You know, I felt decently cozy at the time.
And like looking back in retrospect, like it's feeling the same now.
Not that we're going to be like in this long winter,
but like I think we're about to have a big run up based on just general
momentum of the economy and AI and a bunch of other infrastructure
and money just pouring into tech, right?
And so I think that's going to generally be good for Bitcoin.
There's a couple other things too that people aren't looking at.
The Trump kid funds, I forget what they're called.
Yeah, the $250 funds.
Dell's rolling out, like Dell's copying them too.
Michael Dell, he's doing like a $6 billion fund for $250 accounts as well.
It's a whole private thing. The thing is, that's going to pump the shit out of stock market that's that's what
people don't understand it's literally crime season it because when they dump all that money
in those those kids can't pull that money out for years no it's gonna be what they can do is
they can dump all that money in pump the stock market egregiously and then dump all their cat
dump all their money that they have
in the sbx and everything else this this is literally a price manipulation play 100 yeah
go watch mike go watch michael dell and his wife give their speech it's like it's so weird she looks
like a robot i swear bro but you know it's uh it's just funny you can see like them like like
smiling but you're thinking like where's all this money gonna go where's all this money gonna go for 20 years huh you're just gonna like you're just gonna pile money in here
every oh oh my mom my mom and my grandma man everybody else should put money in there too
that's what they said like anybody can put money in these accounts if anybody if anybody thinks that
the s p is coming down anytime soon i can tell you they're tripping you're wrong yeah they're tripping
go look go look at the historical data.
It's pretty much like not looking like we're going to have anything longer than a season out.
This government is literally committing every, I'm not saying like literal crime, but when it comes to finances, right?
$75 billion.
It's every bit of crime when it comes to finances.
And they know exactly what the hell they're doing.
They're pumping the shit out of this market.
They're going to front run it first and then they're going to pump it.
They know exactly what they're doing.
And I think that that's what, you know, any smart financially literate person understands that.
I'm just saying the quiet part out loud that most people won't.
And that's exactly what's going to happen.
They're going to do everything they can to prevent a recession,
even though you can still tell prices are high,
even though rents are still high and so on and so forth.
Don't think the pain has stopped yet.
People think, oh, if we just get this recession, things will reset.
Guess what?
They're not going to let it reset.
They're just going to keep on increasing the pain.
They need the kids to have hope. at the kids lose hope and the parents
lose hope and then everybody's fucked and mark's gonna kind of like feel that shit and i think
that's what happened in this last like little downturn is like people were just genuinely
depressed right like and they had every right to be their kids are going to school learning about
the end of the world and shit you know like it's a little weird so i think as wokeism is breaking like people's general hope might just tend to come back you know and that's
that i think generally a good thing yeah i mean like look at the end of the day like i i i don't
know what it is with a lot of this stuff that the thing is is that we we know what's going to happen
here we know the the liquidity injector is going to happen
and then you've also got the fed chair right and and somebody else is like oh the the fed you know
doesn't get changed out until next year and i was like yeah if he doesn't resign first a lot of
people don't you know really don't understand the game and the game is is like all he's got to do is
pressure palado yeah y'all treat y'all treat jerome powell like he's gary do is pressure Powell over his arm. Y'all treat Jerome Powell like he's Gary Gensler, though.
That's fucked up.
I want to appreciate that.
I mean, Powell has his flaws.
Yeah, yeah, but he's done a pretty good job during all this bullshit.
Listen, listen, there was no reason to keep rates that high.
Inflation was gone by their metrics.
It's not only his choice, though.
That's the thing.
There's a lot of factors that go in and decide these things.
He's just the person that rings the bell and says it.
He actually has more to play in that than any other Fed chair, for sure.
He could pressure.
It's kind of like the Democrat Party and the Republican Party.
They both have their heads, and they follow their heads.
The other chairs would follow Powell if he he said let's let's cut i i don't i don't understand why they didn't
do it sooner to be honest with you i mean i i understand but you know like it only hurts the
people when you keep rates that high like this deflation shit hurts poor people it doesn't it
doesn't oh yeah no yeah deep yeah they i, we don't want deflation at this point.
We're too far gone.
It's like trying to go back to
frugality once you're a billionaire and you live
in a big-ass mansion with maids.
It's like, good luck, buddy.
Go ahead, Crypto.
Black Ops.
What's up, Will? How you doing? It's Davey
Gonzalez, your buddy. what's going on man
you know your buddy i i couldn't i honest to god like today is such a blessing every day that god
gives us above six feet is nothing but a blessing what's up bread um yeah no like today's a beautiful
day to be alive like we're we're
gonna actually head over to a bar we're doing something weird anyways we're we're gonna go
over to this bar and see if we're gonna buy it it's in coco beach it seems pretty cool um
yeah for real we're just gonna go ahead and do everything that nobody actually ever did we're
just gonna do it before before Yep. That's happening.
I don't know.
What's up, Saul?
Will?
Much respect.
Profits.
How you doing?
Do it big.
It's hard to read the rest of y'all's names, but I don't want to butcher that.
I was just arguing.
That's the ghost, bro.
Okay.
Pardon? Let's do a medium Chicagoago right now he only knows one way of doing it that's big um you know it come on but you know i was sitting
i was sitting today arguing with a lawyer about stain colors right um that was fun i just want
to put that out there in the air. You know, stoicism
wins every time. I just
stayed stoic. We just
better smile by the end.
You got to be careful who you give your minutes to,
Saul. Hey, bro.
Look, we're doing $1.3 million
of finished carpentry in this fucking mansion
in Santa Barbara.
It's a pretty cool job.
We're in and out of there as we please.
She's cool, but she's picky
as fuck. You're arguing
with a lawyer, so it's hard to win.
She's a good attorney
too. She's not stupid.
We're putting an automated elevator
in this bitch's house next month.
This thing will pull her legal files up
and down into the attic and
put them on a conveyor belt
and then and then like shuffle them off to the side so it's like she's a g she's pretty
she's pretty what's that really good like food court place in santa barbara i don't know the
name but i know right where you're talking about down by the bus station off of and it's a it's a
chapala and figueroa yeah I don't know what the streets are,
but there's a good food hall place over there.
I was just putting the streets out there if anybody's there.
It is the bomb. They got
fire sushi bowls and a bunch
of other shit in there.
Yo, Profits, are you seeing all these
cloud seating shits?
This shit is crazy in Florida.
They'd be about this weather manipulation
shit out here.
Streaks, 40 of them in a line.
I lived in LA for mad long, and in my opinion, nothing is as manipulative as LA weather.
I can't, I can't, maybe I'm because I'm a Floridian, I can't tell.
It does, the rain, the rain on and off is annoying as fuck, so that's very, you remember
that movie from Disney Channel when they would like play with the little house thing and then turn on the snow.
And that's how I imagined.
I mean, we got to harp in California up north.
So like they'd be fucking with the weather for sure.
Yeah.
Yeah.
Florida's a trip.
Florida's an amazing state.
I love it. It's great. What brought you all the way out here, Profits?
This is not an interview.
Oh, my bad.
No, I'm fucking with you.
So, Profits, when you grew up in Miami, what were your favorite things to do? Where would you go? Would you go to the park, the library?
Oh, fuck, dude.
Here we go. Don't answer, I promise.
Yeah, I'm not going to answer. Oh, that's rude as fuck.
I've known you for a long time. I don't know much about you.
You don't be asking each other questions like this in public.
Buckers.
You know what I'm saying? Reveal yourself.
David, you asked me what brought me to LA.
Miami.
Oh, what brought me back?
I mean, the pandemic was mad weird.
Wasn't reselling sneakers the same way anymore.
StockX ruined everything.
There was no real reason to continue to spend.
LA is expensive as fuck.
Well, no, that was ironic because my apartment here is more expensive than my one in LA.
However, I was always home. I didn't go outside
like that. I didn't really have a crazy group of friends.
I was literally always home. You weren't going to Runyon
every week? I would go to Runyon
sometimes when people were in town because they wanted to go
later.
I was always on Melrose
selling clothes or sneakers.
My life was that and then maybe go
out from time to time. Then pandemic
just got really weird and I was like, maybe it's time to time. So, and then pandemic just got really weird.
And I was like, maybe it's time to go.
Hey girl.
Hey girl.
I'm gonna hit you like right after lunch.
We can go run in.
Okay.
We're going to get some Starbucks.
Um, I was raised in, uh, North, North of Florida though.
So, or North of Miami though.
So I wasn't really raised in Miami.
So living in Miami now as an adult, you know, with a little bit of money, it's great.
Cause I can actually feel like, you know, like I'm, like I'm, you know, like I'm, you know, with a little bit of money, it's great because I can actually feel like, you know, like I'm like I'm, you know, like I'm, you know, feels a little successful.
I can enjoy some of these fucking views.
You are successful, prophets.
Amen.
Amen.
But yeah, that's why I live in Miami.
It's too slow up there.
Now I'm accustomed to the fast life.
No, Miami is like the new.
I need to see a high rise.
I need to see a Ferrari.
I need to see these things.
Miami's kind of the new LA.
I'm not going to lie.
No, Miami is the new LA, New York, and like...
Miami is not liking it right now.
Everyone's saying it sucks.
It's becoming great.
Miami is not New York, bro.
It's becoming dope.
Brother, what's the mayor of New York City?
Look, I don't care nothing about that.
That state is so cold.
It's so expensive.
Look, I know some people are from New York.
Don't get offended, but would never live there.
Absolutely not.
I mean, I respect the city.
The air comes off that water and literally just like...
We got plans to come out to Chicago and do some magnet fishing.
Yeah.
But look at this right here, Profits.
See this right here?
Yeah, I see that, bud.
What is that, high or low? look look at look at this look at this
body candle this monthly it's literally the same monthly we just experienced
now what do you think everybody's gonna do if this starts happening
they're gonna buy see anybody that doesn't know how to trade needs to be
focused on glitch money.
I'm from Humboldt County, so I see a lot of glitches, you know?
Brett, let's welcome you to the stage.
How you doing?
Yeah, GM gang, not too bad.
Just trying to tie up all the loose ends and shit for the week, get ready to fly out.
Basel, what, tomorrow?
No, day after tomorrow.
So, yeah, stoked.
Stoked to kick it with out again, you know?
And this year's going to definitely be dope.
And I'll be the first one to say, like, yo, New York sucks, bro.
Like, straight up, like, I'm born and raised, right?
I moved out here 14 years ago and never looked back.
Fuck New York, bro.
I'm over the city.
You know, L.A. was boring. L.A.' New York, bro. I'm over the city. You know, LA was
boring.
LA's boring, bro. Yeah, Miami's dope
and Colorado's the best.
That's all I gotta say.
California's got good weather, man,
but it's one of those states where it's like,
alright, you gotta weigh the weather against costs.
Bro, it's so slow, man.
I mean, it's like dope to chill,
but like, god like come
on let's get some done well how dead is it in vegas right now i got like two texts today saying
like it's crazy dead and you got amazon conference plus mj bizcon plus the rodeo plus whatever
i don't know man like i'm like on the data center side, it's been crazy. There's been a lot of, like, data centers getting built all over the place.
Like, it...
I just meant not to fucking today.
Arizona is the place.
You can just say I haven't been to the Strip this week.
That's good enough.
Dude.
Yeah, I haven't been to the Strip this week.
Actually, no, I did go to Outback.
I spent, like, $30.
Hey, Will, let's...
Look, Will, we should package an offer.
Hey, hold on, Doug.
We should package an offer, Will.
I'll spend $300 an Outback.
That's what I was thinking, bro.
$300 an Outback.
That's all of the lobster.
It's all of the surf.
All of the surf.
But no, Will, we should try to talk a casino and a change into a data center, bro.
There's got to be a busted old casino like Sun City off the strip that ain't making no money.
They got all the electrical that you need.
And then you just bring in a big boy.
Bring in the VCs.
Pump funnel sponsor probably, bro.
Data centers are looking for places with no state tax.
I'm telling you straight up.
And Vegas is just one of those spots.
I got a name.
I got a name.
I got my homies at the Chumash Casino, dog.
Let's go.
Hey, we can always get a net jets from, you know, New York City and head over to the Red Rock Casino.
You know, I'm to buy Jerry's Nugget and turn it into all those fives and tens.
And that's what I'm saying. Chicago.
Jerry's Nugget would be perfect. You got Palomino's and Chica's across the street.
I don't know. I can talk about how to tell tell you guys, too, the way to spend $300 at Outback
is you accidentally order everything
out of the cart and don't really realize it.
I don't give a fuck if you order the whole menu.
How do you spend $300 at Outback?
How many fucking people do you take?
Just me and my little one.
That's it, man.
We had some steaks and lots of stuff.
Yo, Justin. it man yo we had some steaks and yo yo justin
justin if you are tuned into this twitter spaces there's a high
chance that you actually don't have stockholm syndrome uh secondly justin
koushi co-founder luana lopez laura becomes the youngest self-made female billionaire in history,
surpassing Taylor Swift and Lucy Guo.
We like that.
We fucking love that.
And I think she's Latina.
That's a Latina.
Let's get it.
Unless her man's Latino.
Yeah, I don't think she's Latino.
I think she married that one.
Yeah, yeah.
No, I'm pretty sure she is fair enough
she looks pretty vanilla she looks pretty all right all right but anyway um this is fire first
of all i i'm genuinely curious chicago i know how you feel but like all right these come these
prediction markets are clearly fucking thriving when it comes to volume and money is there a world
where this shit just obliterates
in the next two to five years?
Yes, not even two to five years.
That's wild to me.
That's wild to me, though.
Here's what I want you to do.
I want you to look at the top 25 categories
for Calci and Polymarket over the last seven days.
Like, there's charts.
I'll try to pin it to the top.
And, like, look at the top 25 markets
24 of them are sports that represent 95 percent 97 of all betting on calci and sports are gonna go
like they're gonna take sports there's just no question about it well calci's number one right
and then i think polymarket's like number two. Yeah, but I'm just saying in general, they're coming for them for sports.
And if you take away sports, they don't have shit.
Like they'll still be a company, but you won't be able to like,
they won't have the budgets they have right now.
And they won't have the money they have right now to be able to push it.
And there's not enough things outside of sports.
Like they came in with politics.
They bridged the gap with weird shit and then they
fucking just played sports but like they're gonna get shut down on sports yeah i think that like
straight up calci is going to yeah if if they if they get shut down right they're gonna put so much
money and litigation behind that to keep sports like they're not but either way they're well but
they also like the only other thing they have to fall back on are the mention markets you know like what i'm saying is that's like literally
like two percent of all the action they do is that like 35 is nfl of 35 more than two-thirds
of it is in states that don't have gambling they put a fucking they they're going at them for the
ads they used where it says gambling is now available in Texas, which is exactly wrong.
They felt that they were entitled enough to skip the gaming boards and just bypass it and say, we're just not going to do it.
And now they're starting to get the blowback.
And like once they start getting litigated in a couple of different states, I'm not saying they don't have like a little bit of time to do it.
i'm not saying they don't have like a little bit of time to do it like if this chick made a billion
dollars and they pulled like an open sea pump fund where like they can take their money
hide it lose the company it all goes to ship but they made enough money to not care fair enough
but you know like they're getting i mean dude even like even just the pushback you're gonna
have like look like nevada just booted draft just basically put their foot and said draft
kings and fanduel will never be allowed here in New York,
did it because they're going into the prediction market
and that's getting litigated.
You can say whatever you want,
but if hypothetically anybody thinks Kelsey can win this sports argument,
then you might as well just start every fucking thing you can think of
and rename it.
Anything that's not legal or that they're like
we're not going to fucking sell stocks anymore we're going to do trading it's not even going
to be day trading of stocks like i'm opening a guessing market and you can guess what fucking
stocks are going to be worth today and like you know just everything just rename anything that's
regulated and like call it something else and you could get away with it like we're not going to go
down that path as a country like i'm not i mean that's that's that's what prediction markets have opened
the door to though yeah that's what i'm saying so they're gonna they're gonna shut this down like
it's just not gonna we already we already can bet on the futures of companies and and stock like
predictions at the end of q1 q2 q3 but what i'm saying is like once you like yes there is stuff
but don't forget that 90 of the stuff that not sports, most of the sports is either the states that can't bet or it's arbitrage to sports books.
Like the books are just arbing all their fucking balance sheets onto fucking polymarket.
People are fucking betting it.
Once they come in here and put the hammer down, they're going to lose sports.
Well, no, where Calci is going to run into problems is the fact that they take a fee and they are market making actively right and that's not that's another one yeah lawsuits is that that
that's that's the bigger one it's not peer-to-peer it's that there's market makers and that there's
liquidity and then like look i mean you just can't like that's the one thing like don't get me wrong
i find it crazy how quick all these people like the fact that i can go on my robin hood account
and fucking bet on the football game this weekend is just fucking retarded you know like that's calci on the back end yeah but
that's what i'm saying but it's crazy that it's like even pushing like calci i get it but like
putting that into robin hood and a partnership and like some of this like this is going to cause
it's just stupid blowback like you know if that's the case then like let's just be honest nevada and everywhere else with casinos are done all these casinos that are being propped up by
drafting yeah that ain't gonna happen and here's the problem with it is like they're doing volume
but they're not making that much money like they're only pulling a fucking one two-point take
where vegas is taking where real casinos and books are taking a 57% to 20% take.
But you got to think, though, too.
They're pulling the Amazon.
They're pulling the Lyft.
They're pulling the Uber.
They're just coming in and trying to squeeze these bigger companies.
This one's not going to be Uber, though.
Like, this isn't one of those, like, everybody denies it until it's okay.
What I think is going to end up happening, in my personal opinion,
is that they're going to do exactly what they did with DraftKings and everybody else,
and they're going to make them buy into actual casinos to operate inside of a state and if they want to
do that no point and when they do that the spreads are going to get fucking wider and then all it is
is just a sports book and the only and the balance and the money is still going to be there from
arbitrage like it's going to be people just middling stuff and like the volume is all superficial
well it's it's because these these companies are not trying to be tied down to a state
by buying real estate in that state and then having to pay taxes on that real estate.
So they're trying to come in and arbitrage these states without being tied to them,
but they're going to be forced to be tied to them to be able to operate in them.
And that's going to cost them quite a bit of money to do that.
So yeah, I see what you're saying.
Like it's going to get to a sticking point where they got to make a decision
are they going to be tied down like casinos which will basically just make them like casinos
or are they just going to be kind of weeded out at this point well yeah i think it's going to be
interesting it'll be interesting to watch what because i mean both fanduel and draft king are
trying to get into like some sort of prediction market type something.
And I think that if they can successfully do that,
the amount of market share they're going to take from Calci and from Polymarket
for sports by existing customers, and here's $100 for a $5 bed,
and all of those types of things,
I think that we'll see the volume of sports on Calci and Polymarket
and the couple things that exist on Myriad. you know, like we're going to see that,
that market's going to go over sports.
So what's the value for them to do it?
No, what was I going to say?
What's the value for the draft Kings to do it?
Like you're making a 10,
20% rip and you want to go to prediction market,
which is the exact same thing.
You lose the ability to do every prop.
Like, let's be honest, draftraftKings, FanDuel, all that,
their biggest push is parlays and props, which you can't do properly across this.
So you're only competing on straight bets, and straight bets are just being –
the same way every bookie in America pushes off,
unless they just are degenerate gamblers,
the same way that they push off the action to Vegas,
this is just the same thing.
Like, you know, like that's the biggest opportunity right now is you can find something every week with a decent
amount of volume where you can arb a really good bet because like i think and what fanduel and all
them do is they just change it just tweak the fucking cash out method against the algorithm
and don't make you have to do 100 cash out and it becomes it becomes the same thing. They're just riding the hype, honestly.
That's what I think what they're doing,
is because they're seeing that they're losing market share,
and the only way to get it back is to join the party.
Well, I think it's clear they're going to do mergers and acquisitions.
I mean, my guess is that DraftKings will acquire a polymarket
before they get too big.
I don't think they have a reason to.
I think they just let them get fucking burned.
Well, they have too much attention, so they if they if they like steal their tech
it's just super bad for brand there's nothing there's nothing to take because the only thing
the only thing you're taking is people who are in states that you can't bet in anyways like and
you got to understand like like these people built the tech right if like polymarket like that like
the merger and acquisition would be more of like an aqua hire anyway like yeah but would you would you really call that tech i mean like these well technically yeah it is i'm not gonna like belittle
no no i'm no no i'm not not saying that i'm saying to the casinos and to these to these brands they
basically already have this set up in web2 right they they have the full system that they can
utilize they don't have it set up on blockchain no it's all it's all about volume at the end of the day like it's not going
to be like a full-blown like acquisition like draft kings will no longer exist it'll just be
a back-end deal to where now volume is being funneled through and there'll be essentially a
fee that's paid the volume isn't there because the volume is texas the volume is all the state
like texas is such a huge part right now.
And that's where they pushed all their marketing.
Like Texas gambling is now legal.
Like you called it gambling, but you're not calling it gambling.
So you're already liable right there.
And that's where like some of the money, like if you look at the numbers, I want
to say that like it was $300 million last week in Cal sheet in NFL plays.
I guarantee you without even like breaking it down and getting the chart,
I'm trying to find it while we're talking,
but I can't find that fucking post.
Cause I'm on.
Yeah.
I remember seeing it.
Yeah.
The bar charge.
Yeah.
Yeah.
Yeah.
And I can't find it on my phone,
but like same thing,
but you take 300 million in a week of fucking take,
just break it for what it is.
You have $300 million in volume.
The take fee on that is
two points, right? So that's only $6 million in revenue from sports betting total on that.
Actually, I would assume that it might be three because it's 150 versus 150 and the take is two
points. So you're talking about $3 million in revenue with a spend that's stupid. They're overpaying every asshole in the world to promote their shit.
And of that, a lot of that is Texas money.
A lot of that is the couple of states you can't bet.
And then the other half of it is basically all entirely fucking nothing but fucking people that are just arbing stuff.
They're just laying off action onto fucking blockchain, which also helps some of these people launder money so like it's great for a million fucking reasons it's
a good tool for all these people it's like all the scammers wanting privacy coins so they can
launder their money without anybody seeing it why do you think zcash goes up when the market goes
down you know isn't that funny isn't that funny though like nobody really correlated the fact
that like okay like a bunch of money is going to exit the market it's going to go through
oh yeah i don't want to say we can't be talking about privacy tokens in public because they're
private okay yeah that chart that chart's not the one i was thinking of that went up
that's the total on sports but look at that one by itself. You're literally talking about in weeks. What's that breakdown to? Like very small in millions on fucking elections and politics, economics, which is basically people doing the same thing, hedging arbitrage against stocks the same way you have puts and calls.
puts in calls crypto the exact same thing like there's plenty of shit like i mean like i i have
no reason to you know bet in some of these cases but like sometimes it's a better hedge math wise
to take some of these polymarket bets than it is to hedge against it a different way
like it's all just arb against stuff and it's only existing because they're letting it exist
or because they decided not to get clearance for it and as soon as you argue that
they have nothing left you're basically saying that these these companies like kyle she and
these other ones are going to have to either third party which will cut into their their
revenue share by a shit ton it'll make them it'll make it but if you do that it'll make them less
desirable because nobody's going to take yeah nobody nobody that's nobody who makes 10 points
is going to come in here and say hey you know? We're going to acquire you just so we can all change to two
points. Like it doesn't work that way. Yeah. Yeah. A hundred percent. Like if they were going to
acquire it, they would just acquire to basically dissolve it. Yeah. But, but, but you're not going
to, you're not going to acquire a $15 billion company to dissolve it. When, as soon as you
know, that as soon as they're getting, as soon as they get regulated or as soon as i'm just saying
like if i'm saying they're dead anyways there's no buyer for it there's no buyer for polymarket
or calci unless they win a lawsuit then of course if for any reason they can beat this thing which
i believe is like under a couple percent chance then yes the company's worth the company's worth
big money and sportsbooks are fucked forever okay well, yeah, I mean, nobody's going to come in and buy Calci, bro.
They just were valued at $11 billion.
Yeah, but it's a fucked up value because they're taking revenue and they're not taking fucking income.
Like, put it this way.
If they made $3 million last week on sports, on their $150 twice, we're going to call that $3 million in revenue.
Dude, they literally have fucking like $3 million a week or more in just influencer deals.
Like every person I know who has nothing to do with crypto, but has a real following like 500K to a million, they're getting fucking nonstop offers.
Like I got a buddy with a million people on fucking Instagram, million five or something.
Dude, Polymarket hit them up.
Fucking they want fucking three posts a month.
They're giving them 25K for it another one wants this like they're just i mean they're running these things
in hopes that it works but there's just no way this can work like if this can work then like
but look but i'll say this chicago like like uh the taxi industry and like a bunch of people said
the same thing about uber and the one the one thing about tech is like
is like um it's formidable opponent because it grabs mindshare before it even like like branches
out so like like people can like like say like the regulation might fuck them but i think like
they pretty much have like a strong enough set of vcs behind them that they're pretty padded for
this like and i think i think i think it all what was it you know the lawyers and the fucking everybody all lens but i want to land this point because
it all lends ultimately to brand recognition which is why these companies are valued so high
like yeah yeah so like so like they go they go to it so so like if they go to if they go to court
with valleys and or some big you know some big established, like, like, you know, players ultimately are big established packs.
Like they're, they're going to look, they're going to look like the underdog, which is
ultimately good for their brand over five, 10 year.
Cause these guys, these guys are suffering.
They're hemorrhaging money.
They spent way too much money on infrastructure that nobody's using.
And then pretty much all gambling is going online.
So that's why I think like a merger and and acquisition is probably in the cards or in the
deck of possible cards based on
just the fact that it's easier
to do than go to fight
in public for fucking ages
and both parties lose. Look at the
chart above.
Cut these figures off, Will. Go ahead.
No, no, no.
I'm just saying that you're talking about $100 million
in fucking bets, which is $50 million at two points that's a million dollars a week is all they're making
if you take away sports like they can't like they're not surviving this chick got a billion
dollar fucking net worth valuation but it's because she owns points of a fluffed fucking
evaluation in the first place yeah that that's that's like the the valuations are just bullshit
at the end of the day like a lot
of valuations are bullshit like that's why i think m&a is possible here's the thing though a lot of
companies base valuations off of like revenue off of volume off of shit that they're not even making
and and it's actual bullshit like i can run 10 billion through a company but i just keep on
doing buys and sells on my own right and then just sit there and make it look like 10 billion through a company, but I just keep on doing buys and sells on my own. Right.
And then just sit there and make it look like 10 billion and do that with 100K.
And that's that's the problem with a lot of these platforms is they're fucked up bullshit at the end of the day.
They're not actually making as much money.
Yeah.
Like if she sold for three billion right now, she could actually walk away and be close to a billionaire for real.
Right.
Like she's in the news as a billionaire today.
She's not a billionaire today.
But the problem is she's probably not getting that much revenue
in these companies.
That's what I'm saying.
I think we'll see how it plays out.
They're in a growth trajectory.
If this wins, then I'm starting a fucking
prostitution company called Frentech
and a fucking casino
pairing that's called
Koshi Doesn't Back.
I'm not going to bet against you on this.
I kind of agree with what you're saying.
Listen, you're in Vegas, so you get it
better than most people.
Vegas is a really good example that a lot
of people don't understand.
They will literally block these guys out if they want
Don't forget that half the city
just wants a fucking shot at Trump anyways.
Yeah.
We have to understand anybody who who runs these cities and there are certain companies that run every single city
they can shut this shit down real quick like casinos run vegas right and they can shut down
anything coming in here it doesn't matter if it's on the internet doesn't matter if it's on
you can say well people can use vpns Not that many people are going to care. But they could also just make them an offer they can't refuse.
Yeah, but I'm with you.
I'm kidding.
No, no, no.
But I actually, I actually do think that, but the problem is you'd have to take that $13 billion evaluation and say, hey, we'll acquire you at 500 million paid over fucking this much vesting.
And we only want it.
We're taking it as your customers
and that's about it but the customers then go back to being in a normal sports book with the
same fucking juice and the same everything and it just doesn't you know you're left with a prediction
market for non-sports stuff and i'm not saying that that's not like a loophole but i think that
if they lose the big one they put regulation around the stuff like that the same reason that
no one was no one in the u.s was ever able to do election fucking betting here's the thing too
chicago to your point it's easier for these casinos and other platforms to open up non-sports
stuff betting than it is for these other platforms to open up sports stuff betting and that that's
that's what a lot
of people aren't looking at either like this is actually easier to reverse no no no because gaming
gaming gaming boards aren't going to give like you're like don't forget the second biggest thing
is politics and vegas will never let politic bets go the same way that every state has weird like
you know for example i'm in illinois right now you can't bet colleges you can't bet illinois schools
on draft kings so like if if illini plays you can't bet ill you can't bet illinois schools on draft kings so like if if illini plays
you can't bet illini like there's so many individual rules by gaming boards and that's
why everybody had to go on the state the state level like one of the better interviews to watch
is watch the michael rubin one from fanatics yeah but the casinos own the own the gaming boards out
here like they i understand but you're not going to get politics in there for different like if
it's not like i just don't maybe maybe at some point you throw elections and I just don't think that ever really happens. But if you watch the Michael Rubin interview where he was on there and they're talking about how fanatics is going to launch prediction markets, he says it like real clear. He's like, well, right now the regulations say that it's okay. So we're going to do it. And if that changes, we're just going to pivot back away from it, but we're not going to not do it for right now.
just going to pivot back away from it but we're not going to not do it for right now so like i'm
with you like everybody could in theory have a prediction market right at this moment and all
the fucking pressure will still be on the top two and then everybody else can just disappear because
it's not like like until you put the rules around it but i think where they're going to come at them
and fucking drain them is they're going to say you operated a casino without a license in this state
and if every state goes at them they don't have enough cash
they don't have enough money yeah like i would love to see what their books look like for somebody
who like just has like a weird fucking chart but like if you take the influencer deals the
fucking affiliate deals the everything else and you just leave them what they have in cash like
yeah the fucking one co-founder is worth a billion dollars now but bro did you see their
list of vc backers bro they're like are seriously bullish i don't care i don't care but hear me out there jesus christ and fucking
they got a lot of money behind them is what i'm saying is like if they hit if they hit a big
lawsuit i'm pretty sure they have a lot of baseline support from the people that that went here here
here's the thing though look at the end of the day these companies are operating privately for
a reason why do you think they're not publicly traded and and i i think that that's that's what you have to look at first and foremost right like
they're operating privately and they're doing that because they have no intention of you know
showing all their information they know likely that their books are cooked and the only way you
could do that is to run your company privately anybody who's putting their money in a vc they're
asking for fucking quick returns across this because they're aware of what's going on.
Like some of these people, like you got a $11 billion valuation on it.
We have no idea what they really raised at that.
Like it wasn't a billion dollars.
They didn't raise 10% of it.
They raised that, you know, hundreds of millions of dollars, split that between the people who are there take the immediate cash
that's sitting there that they get paid on first it's really not like a risk to the vcs and the
vcs will just walk like you know like i mean i know they're running privately yeah yeah but i'm
saying they'll just walk like it's not you know and also no so now look i'm gonna push back on
this out because sequoia look i just looked this up because i wasn't sure but i thought so
but sequoia led their round bro sequoia is like minted they're like extremely plugged at every level of
government like i don't see this being i i think sequoia has more power than vegas at this point
in time bro they they're locked no no i'll tell you why i'll tell you why they're lockstep with
all the let me let me finish they're lockstep with all the technocrats. They were fucking initial investors at Google,
a bunch of other companies,
a long laundry list of companies.
They were like initial seed investors for.
So like,
you can't say that like,
that Calci is just going to disappear or get fucking,
they're going to get strong armed by a casino.
Cause like I said,
like they're going to get strong.
They're going to get strong on by common sense.
Like you can't just come in here and change the name of something and come in.
This is going to be something.
But they said the same thing about Uber, bro.
Same argument about Uber, bro.
It was the same exact argument.
Taxis and ride shares.
And if we take the two of them in the end, I think it'll say one and one.
That's the way we'll look at it in history.
Let me give you the Uber example because we keep bringing this up.
Uber and Lyft. I literally fell asleep and my car is still driving, but I'm pulling up to the bar that we're going to buy, I think.
This thing drives itself.
This thing's bulletproof.
Bro, shut up.
Go ahead.
In Vegas, what you call that?
My bad.
I didn't know I was on here.
You're good.
You're good. Yeah, so in
Vegas, basically, you know, the taxes
are paid by the casinos.
And basically, the state is run by the casinos.
And there's no
way you're pushing them out.
Zero chance you're pushing the casinos out.
And I think...
Charles Schwab was in their Series A,
bro.
I don't give a fuck if schwab was in their series a bro so i don't know i don't give
a fuck if jesus christ was in their series a google google doesn't have poll here nobody has
well no the only leg to stand on more than the mob dude i don't give a fuck bro dude the only
leg that they have to stand on is that it's peer-to-peer and if they can prove that it's
peer-to-peer then it's not a book right and that's what i'm saying like if they if them taking a fee
constitutes them qualifying as being a book versus a pure peer-to-peer exchange then like that's
what's going to screw them you know that's why i think polymark it's safe in their cftc and like
everything else like they're going to they're going to scotus here i think scotus hears this
to get the clout from it and it ends up winning it ends up working in their favor not not the old guard that's my guess if i'd have been you do realize that fucking
trump's biggest fucking backer is fucking massad agent fucking miriam adelson who's going to fight
to get a casino in dallas anyways after all this after putting up fucking nine figures into this
election like these are casino families that put trump where he's at anyways yep like like you consider it you consider it whatever but like put him out in office
yeah dude adelson adelson put up 100 million bucks just so they fucking don't go at the west bank
her husband's the biggest piece of shit before he fucking died ever and now she just took over
the role she's making a push they dump luca because they want to fucking get texas gambling legalized and prediction markets fucking ruin that whole thing so adelson's either taking fucking a
team to fucking vegas or she's getting the license to build casinos in texas either way that right
there is worth so much more money than all these other people's fucking little cinema game. Yeah, these states
want casinos more than
they want these platforms, trust me.
The casinos bring the buildings,
they buy the infrastructure,
they pay the bills in the cities, everything
else. So they'll definitely take
the casinos over these platforms
100%. I think that
people don't understand, casinos are
the new version of the mob
that's what they are they they come in i get that that's what i'm saying and they they take what
they want i'm just saying like the mob isn't as powerful as the technocrats now bro like sundar
people like like these guys are way more powerful than anybody ever was in the mob bro they have way
more money then they trump's in office Then they would be implemented in Google. They would be implemented
in all these other platforms, but they're not.
They're not because
they might have backers, but they're not
good enough to be part of it.
I'm just saying. Trump's in office
because of the voting system, period.
Vegas casinos
give $12 billion
a year in taxes back
to the federal government.
Calci is worth $12 billion, year in taxes back to the federal government. Cal, she is worth $12 billion.
And technically we can all agree that that's a fluffed up number,
but the 12 billion is liquid that goes back to the federal government because
of fucking Vegas.
Like, that's just like,
like the next move is Vegas makes a power play and says, you know what?
We're not going to worry about taxes.
We're just going to do like optional donations instead
and like what are you going to do then like you know like these are the kind of things like we
can't just go on forever saying we can tweak the word of stuff like i agree when there's no
fucking rules around it but there is rules around election betting they're just calling it peer to
peer and like going at the license and the drivers and the everything they did with uber
like cal she doesn't have enough money to bleed to appease this for that long this is the exact same thing though like is directly
correlated because look what uber did was change the the way that driving was distributed what
what what they're doing what they're doing here is changing the way that bets are distributed
right and so they said this is i think this is a key a key indicator that like the tech is working it has
product market fit that's obvious i mean it's been all over the fucking news it's like it's
pretty clear to me i didn't do it i didn't use it let me explain what the state of nevada did to
uber lyft just so you know and other states are doing the same thing so in nevada they actually
require you now as an uber lyft driver for for those who don't know, you have to have a business license to be able to use those.
So a business license, you know, another $400, $500 per person.
And that's if you want to open the business license and then you're a third party.
And at that point, you open the door to being taxed out the ass for being a business and operating under another business.
So you're basically a vendor to Uber or Lyft.
Most people are not going to do that. that drastically decreases the amount of vegas is
the new detroit dog i love vegas to death i lived there for listen stop vegas is not the new detroit
vegas dude listen vegas is not the new detroit i'm sorry that was mean that was mean that was
yeah but i get it everybody watches too many fucking t fucking TikTok videos of fucking people saying Vegas is dead.
You know what Vegas is also doing? They're going to fucking
kill off fucking Uber really fucking quick.
You know why? Because Waymo is fucking field
testing this week starting Monday.
Waymo's in there.
You got Zook, you got Waymo,
and you got the Tesla.
And the Tesla tunnels. Once those three
are done.
Zook's still like the little squared
ones with no driver oh yeah so zuke is already operating even though they're only on 50 cars
waymo just started fucking mapping last week so now thank you for the steel man i appreciate the
steel man right here this is what's up this is a real steel man for my argument that i just made
and i'm gonna stand on it and there's also the Tesla tunnels that are going to fucking remove the rest of that.
Like Uber drivers in Vegas had it so fucking good in COVID.
All my contractors quit on me during fucking COVID because I was looking at their phones.
They were making $5,000 to $6,000 a week, easy driving fucking cars when this was there.
Right now, go fucking talk to an Uber the next time you go to fucking Vegas. They're
either ready to kill themselves or get a fucking other
job, but they can't find one. It's really
like...
There's other things they added to Lyft too
and Uber, they booked a cop for this shit, but
basically, they basically
algorithmically test people to see if
they'll take lower fees.
But are people driving
taxis around there just
hollering? There's still taxis.
I know, but I used
to live in Vegas before Uber,
2008, and there was
a lot of taxis. Of course there
was a lot of taxis. Thank you.
There was plenty of
taxis. What I'm saying is Uber was... My point rest is they
might be striking down Uber, but Uber still took over
Vegas. It changed the whole industry uber took over the fucking country as far as this
because people were sitting on fucked up overpriced medallions that they were fucking trying to sit on
for my dad bitched for 30 same thing my dad bitched for 30 years about how he could have
bought medallions when he came to this country and fucking drove taxis about how he would be
retired and rich if he just bought these medallions fucking in new york city and philly and fucking chicago when he
first came here and it was a couple of people that fucking controlled those things and like yes
i do think that like and also don't forget uber fucking basically bled didn't make a dollar for
over a decade and by the time you get to it the difference you're going to have right here is now
you also have the elon factor like the tesla tunnels the tunnels they're putting in here the transport
that's going around the business license factor too and and fair enough i mean the business license
is another one on top of it but like you add all those things together uber did come in and now
uber is going to get replaced by something that doesn't need a driver and this is what's just
going to happen next in fucking vegas like it's really, really close. Like right now,
ZOOP goes to basically 25 stops on the strip.
The Tesla tunnel goes four places inside of the fucking convention center
over to resort world.
They open the wind connect.
They're fucking digging right now to build the new place next to fucking
Virgin.
They're connecting that to the fucking airport and they're going to Fremont.
Once you put that in fucking place like you're taking at least 50 to 60 percent of the business out of there right there plus way
mo is mapping right now so you add all those fucking things and you don't need uber drivers
you just need cars which makes it a cheaper service anyway so let's let's walk through this
logically so we can so we can base this out so so in the correlation here, we have cabs are old casinos and old guard regulation, right? We have the Ubers are polymarket. And, you know, so if you could correlate these things, like pretty much what you're saying to me, what you're saying to me is there'll be a new there'll be a new polymarket-esque
thing that comes and
agentically helps you
gamble.
Don't forget.
What did polymarket
solve? What problem did
polymarket solve that
already existed?
Granted,
elections is what made them popular.
Little mentioned markets with $5 thousand dollars in total volume and fucking what will trump say and
all this shit cool small stuff but the difference was taxis weren't generating the amount of money
for the city the casinos are they never were they were fucking you were owning a fucking license and
most of these people were fucking never getting back the money the advertising money they got no piece of there was nothing at this point if you say yes to calci in nevada
and you ruin the fucking tax revenue from the other 12 billion dollars you're actually only
hurting yourself as the government by saying yes in uber they fucking came in with all the fees
all the everything else and if you take polymarket and Calci and say, hey, we'll let you operate if
you pay 6% to here and 3% to here and $1.50 surcharge for this and do all these, there's
actually no reason to have it anymore. Because right now what gives Polymarket the edge is that
instead of a 30-point spread, there's two points in the middle. So both sides of the bet are getting better value
on their bet. Most of the time, if somebody is minus one 40 and somebody is fucking minus it,
plus one 10, that $30 spread is now usually sitting on poly market around one 25 with $2
coming out of it, but it's only going to the house. So even if you took a hundred percent
of all the money that Cal she makes, it doesn't even amount to the amount of taxes that the casino sports books give back to the state.
They give 30% of the fucking revenue plus the fees on top of it. 30% of 15% is already fucking
5% right there. That's more than Cal, she even takes off the rip. So plus they're playing,
they're paying property taxes. They're paying everything. Plus they so like plus they're playing they're paying property taxes they're
paying everything plus they're generating they're generating a city that generates the rest of the
revenue i was just talking about casinos i'm not talking about how the casinos bring everybody in
and now you have 500 fucking other businesses in a three-block area all the concert values
the open a's the fucking everything else if you lose that piece in any way shape or form
you lose everything in
that city and they're not going to let vegas fucking crumble for even just for money reasons
and like there's weird states that are the anomaly texas is a perfect example and i think that what
ends up happening from this is i think adelson gets her way and they fucking legalize gambling
in texas i think that's one of the next things that happens it it's an ecosystem that that works
together and like you eliminate
one part of the ecosystem you eliminate the entire ecosystem and that's what a lot of people don't
understand like you can't you can't just shift gambling to online it literally would destroy
the entire ecosystem of of vegas well i think i think literally i think literally the the federal
government will probably make gambling legal nationwide at some point soon it feels like
that's what that's what this all feels
like to me is that this is all like basically popular opinion pushing pushing like regulation
so they go state by state like i said like i said regulation hasn't stopped a lot of markets from
existing i mean you know people will say they need regulation but like but these markets aren't
generating anything that's that's the point that that chicago keeps making these markets aren't generating anything. That's the point that Chicago keeps making.
These markets aren't generating shit to really bat an eye at.
Now, these casinos are.
They are generating much more than these other markets are.
But I'm saying if they make gambling legal nationwide, right?
Like where it's not just like a thing that happens in Vegas or on native land, right?
Then your average entrepreneur can open a casino or get a license to operate a casino like they could just fall right in that basket
a company person can't i'm pretty sure that and my guess is they're probably putting a hefty amount
of money towards like lobbying towards those goals like i said i'm just gonna wait i'm gonna wait
and i'm gonna wait and see for it so listen it's like where i live here in chicago every
fucking corner there's fucking little fucking slot machine fucking cafes.
Like the city I'm in has fucking more per capita than any city in the state of Illinois.
Main reason they're fucking doing that is they're only running slots, and the state's getting enough money to let those little slot places get people addicted to fucking gambling, and you have different regulations around the rest of it.
and you have different regulations around the rest of it.
What they're hoping for, and from everybody I know who operates these things,
is they're hoping for the spot where sports betting gets tied into these machines.
And that's all casino revenue, which is all tied to one major,
which is all giving back over 30% to the state on that 20-point spread.
So like CalShe, there's just no advantage for the government to say yes to Cal sheet is the whole point.
Not saying that you're a loophole of, you know, the Uber argument.
I totally agree that we can use that comparison and it would be one-to-one.
But the difference was Uber also provided the spot where they were going to show the value that they were going to give back to the government in tax revenue, which Cal sheet can't do.
Because all Cal sheet is is a fucking T-Move sports book. It really is. give back to the government in tax revenue, which Kelsey can't do because all Kelsey is,
is a fucking team of sports book. It really is. It's peer to peer, but it's a team of sports book.
I'm not even bullish on Kelsey like that. I'm actually just like,
like kind of just playing and looking at trends.
If Kelsey had a way to fucking guarantee the States more money, then I guarantee you they
have a real shot, but, but they don't have a way to fucking suff the states more money, then I guarantee you they have a real shot.
But they don't have a way to fucking suffice the money that's being taken.
You can't take $100 out of the left pocket.
The guy in the right pocket promises $10.
And as the fucking people who received that $100, you're like, yeah, you know what?
Fuck it.
Let's just take the $10.
It sounds way better. Well, the other thing is, too, Chicago, and this is something people should always keep in the back of your head.
This is good advice for anybody who's looking at a company. If the company is
public, then they're likely generating what they're saying they're generating. If they're
private, it's very difficult to tell whether or not they're cooking their books. In which case,
you can't really be bullish on those companies specifically because they could go under next
week, next month. And in reality,, and, you know, in reality,
they've been cooking their books the whole time. The only people that see what they have going on
is the government. And really it's a, it's even a black box for the government, depending on how
they do their paperwork, because they're private. A lot of open companies that are, that are publicly
owned have to report every quarter, every you know typically every quarter every by quarter
every year so on and so forth depending on how their structure is set up and when they report
that they have to report accurate numbers calci has doesn't have to report but calci's on change
we can all sit here and like people can go in there and figure out what calci's making because
it's on shame but who's doing it's being done like somebody like
me and you can sit here right now for the next 12 hours hop on a fucking zoom call and start
running through every active market seeing what the take is across it times it by the volume and
it's easy math what we can't see is how much they're spending in advertising money which is
way more than they want to admit like that's what i mean that that's stuff they have to admit in
publicly yeah but we don't even need but we don't even need that.
We can just read Common Sense right here
and say to take all the volume that's on any of these markets,
times it by 2% for the fucking take fee.
That's total money coming in.
We can guess how much they're paying in all these people
with fucking badges and every person on Instagram and TikTok
that's fucking making videos.
And we can assume that they're spending more weekly or as much weekly as they are in revenue
coming in.
Therefore, it's not even really a profitable business.
What they're getting is they're calling those users a dollar value.
Like a Yahoo user is like, last I looked, $60 in value, where a Google user is $200
in value.
When they run an evaluation, they base it on fucking users.
The problem when everybody started doing users is everybody's users overlap.
So you can't take that value from everyone.
If you take the value of a Google user, but that Google user is also a Facebook user and that Facebook user is also a fucking Xfinity fucking user.
And they're also a Verizon user.
You can't take the values from all those and combine them when Google
has the master data across
all of them.
So it's the same kind of concept.
Plus also volume manipulation.
That's something nobody even talks about too,
right? You could take 100k and make it look like a billion
really easy.
We know what it is. It's two points.
I just look at the players
at the table,
and you guys are talking about two old players, right?
They saw an opportunity to come in and call this loophole and back it
so they're hands off.
Their money's going to come back.
I don't blame these VCs for taking the shot once they analyze the risk for them
because they don't really care if this thing falls apart
because their math was
okay and if it works they hit a fucking well it's working that's the kind of my kind of my point
it's working so why wouldn't they put more fuel on the fire like like just like litigation litigation
almost proof like almost like in tech this is like usually commonly thought is that like litigation
is proof that you are that it's working the minute people start suing you. The answer is Palace pays more money in juice on their loans in a week than we just decided that Calci makes off fucking sports bets nationwide.
Just in tax on their loans from when they all refinanced their properties during COVID.
Like that's what's killing Vegas right now.
And that's why you're going to see some of these big people bankrupt themselves.
And then they're going to fucking have somebody come in, restructure it.
People are going to be out, but the casinos won't go anywhere.
It's a spirit airlines all over.
Well, yeah, but you get what I'm saying?
But you're talking about like,
you're talking about like young bucks going up,
going up against old bucks, right?
Like, and like the old bucks, like they got more horns,
but like there is a point of flipping that happens in these types of places
where like old technology suffers to new
technology and like i mean we've seen this so many times not bad but the new tech's not better and
it's not paying more so when you look at it from the math side it's got it's got a point in time
where it has attention it has users and normally that's what it takes to make tech better so like
i would like say in a year and a half which will it's which a court case will take
longer than a year and a half let's mind the minor selves that right this will be in litigation for
two fucking years yeah but they can for they can freeze it quicker yeah i don't know i don't see
look what's going on the massachusetts maybe in just vegas i mean no no but but look how many
states are already there and we haven't seen the massive filings yet like once they start hammering
on top of it you're going to be defending yourself in every state and massachusetts is the perfect
example if mass wins just that little motion then everything that's on there in that state
is now frozen and has to go back the one thing that kills them is their statements in the past
publicly like their whole ad campaign like that's like the whole ad campaign is gambling is now
gambling is now legal in fucking texas that's the one thing they could get they could get bumped for but like i
think that that turns into more of like a fine and a slap on the wrist and like here's how you do it
it depends on how big the fines are because they can't afford these they're not making enough real
revenue going into the fucking pockets as everybody wants to think they are and that's not even like
you know like we don't have to like assume too much. We can just take the total numbers that they give,
which we know are at most not low. We just assume that whatever Cal she says they did in volume,
it's high or it's right. It's not low, no matter what. So you take that number and you say fucking
a billion dollars in a week is coming into CalShe in volume.
And 2% of that is coming off.
That's the most you possibly have.
And then you assume how much they're spending because we all know that they're spending a lot of fucking money to be in the places that they are.
Like the reason everybody in the world is seeing it is because they're spending the money on advertising the same way Uber had to bleed.
So when you get down to it, there's just not enough to like overtake it and
have a better mousetrap. Like they're, they're not a better mousetrap. You know, they they're good.
They're a little niche of taking the stuff that's action on things that you can't bet on under any
gaming board or any laws in the United States. I'm okay with that. I mean, elections is what got
me into it. You know, like the election stuff and the fucking political bets were what the base of
polymarket was at the beginning. The only real volume was there was that, and that's what pushed
it and gave them wings at all was the election. Everything they did over a hundred billion dollars
or whatever bet on the election, because people wanted to bet on that. People were passionate
about it. The money was there. Everybody wanted to still take their fucking you know shots
in that but a lot of people were just middling it back then it was like i mean everybody like
thinks like i'm early to polymarket you got in this year dude you're two years behind like you
know early to polymarket back then it was so much different like i mean i i wish i fucking went a lot
harder in the year i did but i I hit the one big first back.
I mean, I've never used these.
You've used them.
So I'm just going off like what I'm told every day
by the peanut gallery and shit.
And when I read and I study Sequoia
because they've made like the most legendary investments
of all firms.
You mean like they did Apple, NVIDIA.
I mean, the list is insane, bro.
So it's like, I normally-
You're taking their winners.
What are their losers?
I'm just curious.
Well, their hit rate is like the best in the game.
What's about what?
Like roughly what percent is best in the game?
They don't acknowledge any of these publicly like that.
But what's a good VC hit?
10%?
Yeah, yeah.
Like the best is like...
There you go.
So 90% of the times they throw money, they expect losers. Yeah, but but hear me out like they're already past the stage of a failure like they're already
past growth right like they have a huge evaluation they're in decacorn already so like but there's
no ultimately ultimately no the question is this is will they take them public they've taken 150
companies public my guess is they're primed to go public, similar to Polymarket.
And like this might be a hindrance, but like I don't think it would stop at full force.
And it's not to mean that like they have the users, so now they can pivot the product too.
If they lose sports, they're a niche business that will still probably be able to operate.
They'll have to cut
most of their employees most of their influence they'll play off the stuff that they can still
get away with and that's okay like for anybody else like you're just you literally made a fucking
tech stack that's like not that difficult like i mean it really isn't this isn't much different
than any other fucking thing you see with a chart so like no but it was like open time like when
these two companies started doing what they were doing in like 2021 2022 chart so like no but it was but it was like when these two companies started doing
what they were doing in like 2021 2022 started becoming like known um like it was innovative
and it still is on a level like i think it is innovative we'll see if like market was overseas
you had to use it you had to use a vpn and most people just bet politics that was what it was
and when they did it, they had their
niche and they could have just printed the same way that like OpenSea is not fucking amazing
fucking tech. They just came in there in a spot where there was no other person competing.
Yeah. Yeah. And that's it. And like, listen, if Kelsey gets told tomorrow to shut down,
it's not the only person it's a loss for is VCs who didn't get their money back.
Like everything else, like the business was good.
The business is still good.
You get to do all these other things.
But what I do think is that if they take sports, then there will also be rules that might take a year and a half, two years to come into fucking terms.
But you also are going to have that fight.
And the other thing you have is don't forget, Democrats look at crypto right now as the fucking bad word.
is don't forget Democrats look at crypto right now as the fucking bad word.
So in all the States where you're still run by fucking Democrats and you have
Trump backing this,
you're going to have fight.
That's not really just about the fucking old heads in the casinos.
Like that's not what it's about.
It's about like,
at this point you have a lot more friction and no one can come in with a
sales pitch to you that says,
look,
we can make you more money.
If you let us do this.
You win. I'm bearish now.
Fuck this.
What's going on with you?
I'm fucking bearish as fuck now on Kalshi.
Fuck them. They're going to zero.
They can be a great fucking half a billion dollar company.
You know when you lose a debate
because you're tired?
Not because you couldn't make more points,
but you're just like, no, fuck.
Don't quit because you're tired. I because you couldn't make more points, but you're just like, oh, fuck. Don't quit
because you're tired.
I've been working all day, dog, listening to
Spaces and shit. I'm tired, bro.
Literally. But
I do believe that it's good to see
people win. Oh, now you want to give up
because you're tired. Chicago wants to keep
going. This is a
story of my fucking life, bro.
I'm out of here.
I was at the gym. i was at the sauna i went for a walk in the fucking cold i went to the grocery store and fought a bunch of asian people for seafood at costco like i've had a fucking day
bro you just fucking sat there and like people put an elevator inside a fucking rich lady's
house in santa barbara to move filing cabinets and you're in santa barbara
so like you're fucking stressful there was some beautiful there was a it was a really nice day
today i'm gonna rub that one yeah yeah you want to know what it is here dude i have the fucking
heat on like 900 degrees because it's fucking cold outside my dog won't even go outside and
shit anywhere because there's fucking eight inches of fucking snow and she doesn't want to
fucking shit in it so she fucking finds little sidewalk pieces bro it's fucking shitty here
you can't make you can't make this up it was it was a crispy 69 degrees today in santa barbara
that's that's crystal crystal clear yeah so i feel less bad i didn't know i didn't know if i
want to wear a sweatshirt it's 6 p.m on a beautiful day in california you want me to pity you i'm
tired i'm tired of arguing.
I was arguing with this lady all day about staying, bro.
I'm just tired of arguing.
I love you, though.
But you win.
That's one thing I didn't want to leave with.
I'm a man.
That's fine.
I'm a man.
I'll concede like a good chess game where I might have got you.
I wish there was a mic drop emoji here on fucking spaces because I just
fucking put it up there.
Yeah, you heard that one.
Like I said, this is like me. We're 11 11 moves in on chess.com and i just concede bro
like like look i mean the plus is if by chance you're right and kelsey wins then i'm launching
i'm not alpha i won't rub it in constitution will be launched tomorrow and i will just say
that you are just investing peer-to-peer. I'll launch a support
application that's
for the life managers on the
application so they can have an easier time
in the business-to-business application
for them. Shouts out
to the life managers.
Thank you
guys for tuning in.
Hearing my uncles talk to themselves.
Make sure, if you haven't already, click the top button.
It says Exposed Nation.
Get you into the community.
That's a VIP experience, if you know what I mean.
One six.
I hope you're doing well.
Zico, so nice to see you, Zico.
When are you marrying me?
Olik, I don't know who the fuck you are,
but you've been here, you know,
hanging on my fucking stage.
You're getting an invoice.
Romilio, what's up?
Saul, everybody else,
thank you for coming through.
We'll keep rocking and rolling
because I already ate,
so I'm in a good mood.
Luna has finally fell asleep,
so we don't have to go outside anymore.
Do you know who I am? Do you want to go outside anymore. Do you know who I am?
Do I know who I am?
You know, I remember you.
You were around on the bull market
and now you're
back. That's retardio.
I go bad. I remember.
Oh, wait. Is that what happened?
Yeah.
They don't want to see me win.
But it's fine.
Damn, dude. Oh, you got banned. They don't want to see me win, but it's fine. Oh, damn, dude.
Yeah, I got a hit.
Oh, my God.
Wait, does that mean that all of them are getting their accounts back, Ritardio?
No, I mean, it was kind of meant to happen, right?
It was just a matter of time.
But I just have a few alts.
I use Remilio, Mulele, whatever.
But many of them got nuked.
I don't know why.
But we're back a little bit i guess everything will happen the way it's supposed to happen exactly wrong i just wanted to say that
i just wanted to say i don't know if profits is planning on closing the space but in case it
hasn't been said yet let it be known now mint this as an nft if anybody hasn't ever heard it before but we're entering
the gamblerfication of society yes that's right that's the term i use the gamblerfication of
society and it's going to pay for the engagement ring the helicopter to take profits to the
engagement um uh setting uh and then it's going to pay for the house and we're going to live it
after that and it's all good and And if I can, baby, baby.
So now in English,
like what are we doing here?
Well,
I'm just saying that like,
we're moving towards, uh,
the gamblification of society.
That's all.
That's all where it's getting,
it's just late stage capitalism.
The only thing left for people to do is gamble.
And only,
or have you been gambling ever since you lost your account? Be honest honest has your money been up or down since you lost your Twitter account?
I don't gamble like I've been in this space for a while. Retardio was just my alt. I never monetized that account
I just it was fun. I buy and sell usernames. I do a bunch of stuff. I don't know. I'm just chilling
Oh, you're on the... okay, nice Username guy, very cool
I just... the only thing that bothered me is Hussie got banned as well
And I'm like in the same jail as him
You know, that just annoys me
Hussie? Hussie the guy that lets girls take your shit in his mouth? That guy?
Oh yeah, I didn't want to get into details
But he got banned as well at the same time
And I was like fuck, I'm in the same, like Twitter sees me as the same person.
He's insane.
We should let artists create.
No girls, one cup.
No girls, one cup kind of thing.
Bro.
If you're coming to Miami,
be Basil.com, be Basil.com.
And hey, if you're not coming,
you should still go buy a ticket.
Go buy a drink ticket.
And then just be like, yeah, support profits.
No, but if you are coming, definitely get your tickets.
They're free, but if you want drink or VIP
and all the good stuff that I'm offering,
definitely take advantage.
I appreciate you guys coming.
Are you getting an alcohol disclaimer?
You know, to let people know that weed's safer
than alcohol.
If you guys
happen to follow anybody up here, it's not
my fault if they scam you.
You're crazy as fuck
to just trust in them.
Except maybe Will.
Yeah, maybe Will. And then Hunt as well.
Even though I'm going to invoice him today.
So yeah.
What's up over there with you, Hunt?
What's up with the Azukis?
Oh, we're chilling, man.
Fuck, I was trying to make it to Miami.
But, yeah, sadly, no.
Next time?
Next time, inshallah.
There'll be more.
There'll be more, for sure more there'll be more for sure
but um but yo great space
thank you guys for pulling up tonight
I hope everybody has a good evening
and um maybe I'll see you tomorrow
tomorrow is fucking the day
before BeatBasil
your shit's Thursday and Friday
Thursday and Friday
uh oh guys You hear that?
It sounds like I'm going to be upgrading someone's flight soon.
I might let you fly me out.
I've never been fucking on the other end of getting
flown out somewhere, so I might just take it.
I'm definitely
down. It's rude to turn
down gifts, dog.
I'm definitely down a fucking book of spirit flight,
dog. It's not that bad.
I got you.
Put him in the back with Bobby.
You know those posts like who you want to sit with during these things?
You just put him next to him.
Hell no.
Bobby?
She already knows the seat number, dog.
She's already on it, bro.
Trust this, dog.
One motherfucking.
No, actually, you know what sucks is because of the dog, I can't fly 1A on Spirit.
They don't let you in the front row, so I got to be 2A, which is still, like, the big front seat, but it's, like, big, but not, like, five, six feet of leg room.
It's, like, big, like, two feet of leg room.
So, like, it's still manageable when you're 6'6 to sit in it, but I can't, like, kick my legs up and be, like, super ignorant and fucking whatever because I got this fucking little fucking bastard dog
Yeah, so that's where I'm stuck at
But I might just have to fucking switch it to United because you can fly row one
Yeah, I was about to say you retired the 1a on spirits. It sucks
I fucking put a suggestion in on their website that fucking they should change
Yeah, I'm like listen, I'm a fucking platinum member.
All right?
Like, I'm fucking sitting here trying to prove that you aren't the airline for the pours.
Like, I've been here through thick or thin.
I lost 60K on your fucking stupid fucking bankruptcy.
And I'll still be there.
But, like, throw a fucking guy a bone here.
Like, what the fuck?
Yeah, tell him to launch
an NFT, bro. Wrap it
up, B!
Wrap it up!
I'm crying, bro. Shut up,
Saul!
Fucker.
Good night, guys.
