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PRINTING MONEY | ANTI INFLATIONARY TRADE $BTGD
Recorded: Aug. 14, 2025 Duration: 2:35:45Space Recording
Short Summary
In a lively discussion, crypto enthusiasts explored the resilience of the market amidst inflation concerns, highlighting a notable bounce back in major tech stocks and the ongoing 'buy the dip' mentality. The conversation also touched on the implications of recent economic data, the potential for a modest market correction, and the strategic importance of Bitcoin and gold as hedges against currency debasement.
Full Transcription
Yo, yo.
I'm hearing the intro music.
I haven't heard that in a while.
It's supposed to play every day.
Today, that first link didn't work.
Space has been a little glitchy today, but here we are.
We're live.
What's up, Evan?
How are you?
I was ready and excited. I am feeling good. Nice, decent turnaround day. Listen, market down on this PPI, inflation.
I think I know what we're going to hear a little today, but what a beautiful bounce back day.
I mean, I'm down 0.3%. I'm good. I rolled my Intel calls again. Intel, the bend the knee trade continues to work into day number three.
So I rolled those Intel calls up, took another $250.
We'll see. Now I've made basically 2x my money and I'm still holding it.
I just got a call. Can you hear me now?
I got you now. I was about to say, is that either me or you?
No, it was me. I got a call. It's probably spam.
But truthfully, no, never mind. I'm not going to go there.
But yeah, so watching the Intel a little bit.
We'll see if my portfolio can end up getting green on the day.
I said it this morning. This market still feels strong,
even when you're throwing this bad news at it.
I was going to post a tweet this morning
but we didn't get quite high enough
but it's like, I love bull
markets. Bad news is good. Good news
is good. Even I get to look
smart for a while. I'm not saying
too crazy much but this
is an easy market right now and
I don't know.
Even on these rough times
it's been a buy the dip thing.
I think Tom Lee...
Easy?
I think this has been a pretty easy market.
I mean, easy if you're just sitting and stuff.
Intraday and overnight, it's not so easy.
I don't care about intraday, I think.
If I'm being honest.
A lot of people do, though.
I would say more people don't...
I would say more people care about
the kind of swing to a little more longer.
Well, if you came in long overnight, you were an incredible pain this morning on the Open.
Yeah, 100%.
Great.
But if you came in long overnight, you're probably quick to making the moves and stuff like that.
So I don't know.
I get it on the intraday, but when I'm looking at swings and any other kind of metric or whatever than that, like it's this feels like a pretty easy market.
Like we're expanding out. I've heard people talk on here about, you know, how much they're up and all these different stocks.
There's a lot of opportunities. It was interesting to to your point there.
Like, yeah, if you're a swing trader, you probably feel a lot better now than you felt this morning when it opened up, right?
I'm sure a lot of people got taken out this morning on the open.
Very possibly, right?
Like, that's the other hard piece, too, right?
How convicted are you?
We hear Stock Talk talk about the conviction piece all the time.
But, you know, when you look at what was happening the last couple of days, RSP equal weight was very strong, broadening out the market, small caps were catching a great
bid. And then today you saw it just flip right back. They said, Okay, well, hold on, maybe I'm
not so sure about the small caps. And they were selling those and buying right back into the tech
market leaders. At least that's what I saw options, Mike, what'd you see?
I mean, so my thought process this morning was that we talked yesterday that PPI could be
the first place to show the tariffs, right? We talked about that, that that was possible. And
here it did. The tariffs showed up finally in inflationary numbers. And they were hot. But,
you know, let's not pretend there wasn't a little, you know, Trump's like, there's only a little
inflation. There was a lot of inflation there. And that's eventually going to make its way to
the consumer. So CPI and PCE, either the next month or the month after, are going to probably show some signs of this as well.
But let's take a deep breath because we know it's coming.
And this might have put the kibosh, though, in any kind of big rate cut in September, if any rate cut at all at this point.
But my thought process this morning was after that number, as we came into the open, I talked to my members.
I said, let's take a deep break.
I know. Markets still say 93%.
We'll see.
You know, I don't think we're – for a 0.25, but I think the 0.50 went out the window, Evan.
Even Besson came on this morning before the numbers and said he wants to see a 0.25.
But we'll see.
Like, you know, we got a month yet until that, so we got time to figure that out.
But my thought process was – But we'll see. We got a month yet to that, so we got time to figure that out. You were right.
You did shock me yesterday when you said Jackson Hole is a week away.
One week from today.
And here's the thing, though.
Here's one thing that I do want to say on that.
Maybe he chooses not to strike a tone at Jackson Hole,
but if he chooses to, he's not going to walk it back.
So we might get that confirmation 25 is happening in a month next week pretty much
and he's not going to say that or he might or he might get a victory lap i'm not i'm just taking
the other side of it i'm not saying you are but he might take a victory lap the reason for him
is smart the victory lap for why we're not lowering rates and why we've been patient
for before simple before we did it right who knows we got a week we'll worry about
that next week but i mean you know both points are very viable and i think you know i think i
just took the other side of it as a devil's advocate yeah i think that whatever powell does
do i one thing i will say is he's told us so many times they're not going to look at one piece of
data they'll look through it but if that's what he says That would be quite quite shocking
you know
Agreed
But you know my coming into this morning was I was looking at and Amazon was so strong pre-market even despite everything was still up nicely and
I just kept looking saying, you know, wait five minutes
See how this market handles this because we weren't down that much.
While that drop felt big, we really didn't go that far.
And, you know, I didn't I traded short on ES options and ES future contracts on the move down this morning.
And then I traded everything long this morning once the market opened today. And, you know, my focus has been Amazon.
I traded that a couple of times, traded Google on that nice move up here back up as well.
Took a small loss on the SPY trying to get cute and to front run the move.
And it came back to my face.
But, you know, the market came back and it was led by big cap names again.
It was Amazon.
It was Meta.
It was Google.
You know, these came running back right away.
We saw them come running for hood
again after yesterday's uncredible ugly candle uh jd earnings they're down but bull is running here
this afternoon so the smhs came running back so to your point like is this good no it's not good
in my opinion long term this is a problem how this unwinds as we go months down the road
or maybe whatever are different but they came buying the dip again today and it's it's still
summer trading the other thing i look at here is the spy volumes only 41 million shares with less
than an hour to go there was never any big selling pressure in this market today you know they never
came in and really tried to dump it by the way xlf now highs of the day here so i i mean to me you
just kind of stay long right now until we get that change until something goes on i mean are there
concerns yeah i have a lot of concerns and i'll let stock charts speak about that because i'm sure
he's gonna he's gonna go over a lot of that later but you know the market right now is irrational
right now is irrational and when you have an irrational market you just stick with it and
and when you have an irrational market you just stick with it and you just find things to do
you just find things to do that's that's kind of where I'm at the bend the trade working beautifully
it was that Intel what's the other one you keep talking about Goldman Sachs Apple was the first
one then Intel bringing him there and then Goldman Sachs was the one.
We haven't let it develop yet.
We don't know when or if the CEO is going to the White House,
but his name has been called out.
Again, I rolled the Intel calls again.
We'll see.
Give it to me again tomorrow.
I'm in 23s now.
Buyer next week.
Bigger market news right there.
Discord coming soon.
Yeah, it might be $1,000 a month if we keep going like this.
This bull market continues.
Watch out.
All right.
Brett, I want to bring you into the conversation and see what your thoughts are around this
market.
We haven't heard from you in a few days.
Great to have you.
And I mean, does the PPI concern you much?
You look at the market,
you saw the rotation kind of happening, maybe some rotation back. What's your take?
Yeah, I mean, on the PPI front, I mean, I think it's just sort of a reiteration of the CPI
print we had before. I mean, at this point, I think we know that both of the Fed's mandates
are kind of moving in the wrong direction here, right?
So inflation is starting to show some momentum to the upside.
The jobs market is not looking encouraging in terms of monthly data we've been getting.
I wouldn't say either one of them is like a catastrophic situation by any means, but it is putting the Fed, I think, in a tougher spot.
My opinion in terms of when it comes to the rate cuts is, I think the Fed will,
I know it's a dual mandate and Powell talks about keeping them balanced. I think that the labor
market takes precedence to inflation particularly
when we're not looking at an inflation situation like we were a few years ago but one that is i mean if they feel fairly confident that inflation is from terror transitory yeah i've
tried to avoid the word um but if they feel confident that it's that it's from is being
tariff driven then the labor market really does take precedence.
It's a lot easier to fix that side of the equation than it is to regenerate the labor
market again, I think.
So in that sense, I do think the Fed would be willing to cut if they feel if they continue
to grow worried about the labor market.
Now, that being said, with inflation pushing higher, that might slow the type of policy changes
that they make to try to be more accommodative.
They may be slower to adapt or they may take more conservative measures than they may have
in the past.
I think that's something that could kind of trip us up down the road.
But like you guys were saying at the top of the show, it's not the news that we really
wanted on the inflation front.
But the market is kind of like in a Teflon state.
It just it takes bad news and it makes good of it.
And it just continues on now.
I mean, I do think it would be very healthy to get a modest correction, something in that like four to seven percent range.
Just kind of like even if it's just acts as like the dip that refreshes you know going into Q4 I
think that'd be really kind of a nice thing I think even a lot of bulls would agree that it'd
be nice to see some of these big winners kind of take a breather and pull back to some logical
support areas whether that's old breakout levels or key you know intermediate term moving averages
like the 10 week or the 50 day in some case cases, it might even be the 200 day, depending on which stock or sector you're looking at. But I mean, we can talk about the risks and
what can go wrong. But at the same time, you have the price action staring you in the face and it
just continues to push higher. So, you know, in that sense, from my approach to the market is,
you know, kind of like around that cautiously optimistic area. I mean, trying to be conscientious
to trim into strength when it's there. In other cases, taking opportunity to maybe sell some
covered calls, try to bring in some extra income and be willing to be called away at an even higher
price, but ultimately just working to kind of chip that cost basis down and just having some money on
the sidelines ready to go to either buy the dip in something like the indices or take advantage of, you know, a stock that comes down quite a bit.
You know, I don't know when we'll see a dip, but we will at some point.
Maybe it comes in the seasonally weaker period, you know, in September.
Maybe it comes later in the fourth quarter.
I'm not sure, but I want to be ready when it comes.
But I also want to, you know, keep partaking in the upside if we continue to kind of grind higher from here.
So it's kind of an interesting market. Do you see any concerns under the hood at all in this market? Or is it just like keep float higher until something actually does change?
Yeah, I mean, I would say it would be concerned from a few areas. I think for me,
the biggest at this point would be labor related. I mean, the jobs market, it's just we're the type
of economy that depends immensely on the consumer and the consumer loses most of its power if
employment goes, if employment starts to break down.. So we can point to how much money's in
on the sidelines, how much cash is floating around in money markets, but all that becomes
irrelevant if people start losing their jobs. So to me, I am keeping a close eye on the labor
market and the Fed has said, I can't remember what meeting it was in, but it was last fall when there was worry around those worries dissipated quickly.
But they said pretty explicitly, like, we don't want to see the labor market get any
weaker than it is right now.
So I think that they're keeping a close eye on it, too, as they should.
And that's really, I think that's the main big risk to me.
Of course, there's lots of little risks here and there.
Valuation, no, I shouldn't say little, but there's other risks that aren't as macro related.
I think valuation is one for sure after such a big run. Another being sort of the dependence
we're regaining on tech. I know I've been a big champion of tech and I want them to keep I want that sector to keep doing well.
But the dependence on it and the dependence on the AI trade is one area that investors should, you know, probably just keep a finger on the pulse of.
But other than that, I mean, you know, there's always risks in the market.
I think that's sort of worth underlining.
It doesn't really matter. You go back like to any year, really.
And there is something or usually multiple risks that we can point to.
And the S&P just has a way. It continues to grind higher.
It's got continuous mutual fund flow, continuous 401k flow, continuous buyback flow.
That general tide is there to push it higher.
And so while those risks are present, I think it's important to remember the sort of the bigger, bigger picture of the market.
And yes, we can be tactical and zoom those timeframes in a little bit to try and create our own opportunities.
But at the end of the day, the market does tend to push higher overall.
So that's always something I try to keep in the back of my mind and be cognizant of.
It needs to be a bull.
Listen, I've been talking here, but I like the idea of protecting myself.
VIX is down.
Hedge my portfolio for cheaper than you can actually go.
But yeah, this market is, I don't know.
It's definitely not.
We've been looking for a reason for a while,
and this market has just continued.
And maybe it will be next week.
Maybe it will be next month, but we're pretty much through this earning season right now.
We've had all these random tariff headlines coming at us.
I just don't,
I'm curious what the headline is.
Well,
I mean,
we're going to get the,
we're going to get the pharmacy tariffs in the next couple of days.
I think after tomorrow,
what's pharmacy tariffs going to be?
That's semiconductors. Well, after tomorrow. I mean, what's pharmacy tariffs going to be? That's semiconductors
and 75% tariffs?
Believe it or not, a lot of the tariffs come out of
one spot. That could actually be a big hit.
I know. Is that what we're talking about here or pharmaceuticals?
Switzerland? Is there something?
Yeah, it was Ireland.
Ireland. Okay, well,
Ireland's not going to ruin the stock market.
But the real thing
here is you have an irrational
market that shrugs off every piece of bad news there's no big data next week and so you know
i want to be long into next week so what yeah i mean i'm saying amazon calls right now i'm not
you know she was really strong this morning still is just a little bit off the highs i mean so yeah
so we were playing this.
Amazon announced expansion of their grocery delivery and added $120 billion in market cap in like 12 hours.
Pretty funny.
Yeah.
Wasn't that yesterday's stock chart, right?
Wasn't that yesterday's stock?
Yeah, it was.
It was.
Yeah.
There was some great analyst notes.
I don't want to say great, but there were some very excited analyst notes on it last night and this morning.
So I think that's why the stock was strong again today.
Evercore analyst came out the title of his note was i'm going bananas over amazon's grocery delivery that was the title no uh they yeah the people were pretty excited about
that um so yeah that stock's been strong the last couple days yeah can we play a little catch up
there's been a rotation there's been a little handoff here at the Mac.
Even Apple participated for a little bit.
Do you know what did not participate today?
Was the IWM after those big days.
It has not bounced with the market.
That's the one thing. I think they were better in fake outs than Michael Jordan did.
Right, exactly.
Let's see what Powell says next week.
I'm waiting for it.
I wouldn't call it out just yet.
It is the king of fake outs.
Someone, Tom Lee said at the start of the year,
IWM's going to a certain point.
I think it was like, whatever.
It was much higher than it is.
And it was off this rate cut game.
IWM chart still looks great.
What I will say is next week,
Owl talking at that Jackson Hole,
if rate cuts become a reality
and it's like a theme or something going on
and it's earlier than I thought,
this IWM might keep going.
I don't know. We'll see.
But this market,
this is what a bull market
feels like.
One question could be, is this what a top
or is this what a blow-off top
Or is this what a blow-off top feels like?
feels like? Maybe we're in that right now.
And maybe we're in that right now.
I don't know.
I don't know.
But maybe you protect yourself on the downside and keep playing.
Well, question for you and anyone else.
This bull market that we're in,
is this more resilient and stronger,
shrugging off things than any of the other ones we've seen in the recent past?
Yeah, and there's probably a reason for that.
I think that reason's AI, but...
That's where, okay, that's where I was going to lean into.
Because they think it's not close enough to make an impact.
I just disagree.
I think the market sees the productivity at the end of the rainbow.
I really do believe that.
I think that's why...
There's a link
between that and what Brett was saying
with his jobs thing, I think, one day.
And yeah,
this next time we accelerate
in layoffs,
what the comeback might be
might be interesting.
Yeah, Stock Talk, sorry.
No, I mean, that's really it.
You look at the tech sectors
ai's already taking over in terms of workload 30 to 40 percent of most of these major tech companies
for coding workload that's a lot dude in two years that's like a big move in two years compared to
what in terms of autonomous coding operations what probably, probably less than 5% prior to Chad CPT?
Now 30% to 40%?
I don't know.
I think the market, like, just look how the market has acted.
Tariffs, everything that we've seen,
inflation, cracks in the job market,
stocks super extended.
Like, we've had so much negative. Um, we had so many reasons to sell
stocks for the last five years and they've just been bought over and over again. And every time
we do get a meaningful dip like 2022 and, uh, earlier this year it gets bought. So I don't
know. It's the market saying something. I don't know what it's saying. It could just be, Hey,
the bull market's not over yet and it will end soon.
And it will end at some point. I'm not going to anyone to be disillusioned that this is going to continue forever. It's not. But I don't know. It's just a difficult market to get on the other side of.
And a lot of people say, didn't we just start a new bull market back in April?
Like when we came off the lows. Right? So it's a brand new bull market.
Well, I don't know if I'd separate it.
Like some people separate it that way and say,
look, when we come down off a correction,
then we exit a bull market.
Okay, so it's a three-year bull market then if you want to go back to the last time.
I'll go with that.
If you look at it on a five-year span,
like I'd just call the whole thing a bull market.
I mean, if you want to be really technical
and zoom in and say, okay, well, 2022, we had a 27% peak drop decline.
So that's technically a bear market.
If you want to get into the semantics of it, then, yeah, we've had technically two bear markets in between, arguably three, depending on what sort of time horizon you want to use to define that.
But I mean, stocks have been, dips have been bought on stocks is the bottom line.
And there's probably a reason for that.
The market's smarter than any of us are.
I just don't know what that reason is.
If I had to put my finger on it, I think it's AI.
I think it's this idea that things are going to change.
I also think part of it is, if you don't mind me going back and forth here, is the passive
investing that comes into the market month over month now from all the retirement plans.
I think that also puts a floor under the market. It's stronger. It comes back quicker.
That definitely puts a floor in the market for sure over time. But I think the near-term
thrust of the market just relentlessly going upward, as I just can say it, Paul,
is the massive offsides positioning that everyone's expecting some sort of bear market to
last for more than a couple of months which we literally have not seen since 2022 and before
that we haven't seen for quite some time and then on top of that you have a lot of you have a lot
of people who have not people but analysts who have massively downgraded their sp targets from
Massively downgraded their SP targets from the beginning of the year.
the beginning of the year when all
$6,500.
And then now the average is above, I think it's above $6,500 now.
And they're just going to keep on chasing those price targets up and down.
And then you also have a lot of fund managers who literally did not believe the rally.
It was one of the most hated rallies we've seen in quite some time,
continuing to capitulate and get into the rally. It was one of the most hated rallies we've seen in quite some time, continuing to capitulate and get into the market. AI, I definitely think that that is also a catalyst
for the major thrust we're seeing. And to be completely honest, I don't think we've really
seen much yet when it comes to the application of AI in the near term. It's only been three years,
not even three years since ChatGPT yet, and we've seen a lot. Can you just imagine what things are going to look like in five or 10 years?
I already see the efficiency gains from it. I don't think we've seen as much headcount reduction
as we've seen in the last couple of years. I think there's a lot more to come, but there's
also a lot of savings to be had. When I think about AI, I think about it as like a tool in the tool belt
as someone in the workforce, right?
When computers came out,
everyone learned how to type, right?
There was a little bit of pushback at some point,
but everyone learned how to type.
When the internet came out,
not many people had internet in their homes.
Not everyone has internet in their homes.
They have internet on their devices.
And the same thing's happening for utilizing AI and LLMs
from a graphical perspective of just using a chatbot to an application perspective and a backend perspective using AI agents.
This is probably going to be something that we're going to look back on in five or 10 years and be like, wow, things have progressed so quickly.
Because I don't even think in 10 or 20 years we're even going to remember what it looks like today based on the advance we've seen in technology from today. So, Sam, we're going to Skynet. That's why we're not going to remember what it looks like today based on the advance we've seen in technology from today.
So, Sam, we're going to Skynet.
That's why we're not going to remember anything?
I'm kidding.
Well, you don't need to worry about that, man.
When Skynet gets unlocked, you're not going to need to worry about their stocks.
You're not going to need to worry about Bitcoin.
It's all over.
So just go all in now.
Just go all in.
You know, I think that, though, listen, what happens over the next couple of years?
Are we in 1999 heading for that dot-com bubble crash maybe?
But when you have a long enough time frame, which I know my perspective, we have a lot of very different perspectives from probably like people who might be in and out in seconds on trades versus people who might be in and out in decades on trades.
You know, that AI tailwind seems to be one that will be impacting this market.
And we probably haven't even gotten the full tailwind from the,
just the internet itself.
so really like it was like 2023 before AI really even became like a
mainstream investing topic,
right?
Like we're only like two years into this.
A couple of these big themes though are going to be duds.
It's maybe less than in the past or whatever,
but a couple of these big themes,
a lot of these like small companies that are trading right now are clearly gonna gonna
end up being duds i think that this time the the famous words of this time being different
is going to be interesting with these large tech companies and their ability to invest in research
and development and invest in these biggest topics and building the and you know staying on the
innovation front so where it's been very difficult difficult for large companies to stay at the top,
maybe I kind of think that's something that will be here,
which is the dangerous thing to say we'll see, though,
because there has been quite a revolving door.
I don't know.
Maybe ExxonMobil will have its day back on top at one point.
But, yeah, it's a different environment.
I think it's a good time to be in the mega caps.
I'll pull back, though.
I mean, if we get a very bad outcome tomorrow between Trump and Putin, I'm not saying there's
going to be, then you may get your oil day, right?
Your Exxon Mobil, your CVX.
That would be interesting.
Right.
But I mean, that's a complete unknown.
I'm not saying that's going to happen.
You want to look for a reason to get into energy names, that would be it tomorrow.
You know, where Trump just says it's a horrible,
I have nothing to do with him.
I'm going to slap more, you know, you understand.
My mind goes to, I want to find,
I want to find the defense name that's,
that we would sell to Ukraine more and go long.
What are betting markets saying on that meeting tomorrow, Evan?
Polymarket is saying...
Which question do you want here?
What are the percent chances of a resolution?
I imagine it's low, right?
Russia-Ukraine ceasefire in 2025 is still at just 35%.
Will Trump and Putin hug?
It's at 7%, if you were wondering.
The fuck?
No, they're going to spoon.
They're not going to hug.
They're going to spoon.
Get it right.
You can bet on how long... You can bet on how long their handshake.
You can bet on how many seconds.
Yeah.
Okay, so if you're curious on what the betting markets are for how long their handshake will be.
Under two seconds is 10%.
Two to four is 25.
We're pricing in a four to second long handshake.
So, yeah, you can bet on it.
Does anybody else find it interesting?
My market is ridiculous.
We're going to have stopwatches
out and they'll be like, no, dude, it was 2.1 seconds.
What was the start of the handshake?
Where's the start of the handshake? Is it when they extend their hands
or when their fingers touch?
I find it interesting that the meetings at
the airbase, right? The airbase
with all those F-16, F-18s,
F-20, you know, all these high-tech
planes there, that is a power play by Trump.
You see all this? We don't make a deal i'm gonna leach i i i may have to let this start flying
options mike you're talking about the cl1201
i'm talking about that trump's the meeting in atlaska isn't that the airbase the u.s airbase
with all the fighter jets there?
Oh, I see.
So, you know, you look at the backdrop.
All that Trump has to do is put behind him a couple F-18s, a couple Fs.
You know, you get the idea there.
F-22s and say, I don't want to give this to Ukraine, but I could.
A lot of bombs.
I am interested to see how this meeting goes.
And then Russia is going to say we don't want to use a tactical nuke, but we could.
I get it.
But I mean, it's a power play, right?
You know, it could be a power play.
I just find it interesting it's at an air base and not at a, you know, some third party.
There's a lot of tension around this meeting.
Well, there are orders with Putin in the international court where if he went to, like, certain countries, they couldn't.
He'd have, like, a lot of them would just arrest him once he like went over international airspace or something
i was looking into that and why it was alaska so that i didn't think trump was going to go to russia
so although he claimed for a second there there are a lot of people on edge for this one and oil
and maybe defense but i don't know how much the market's getting moving off of this
i mean i don't think i feel like people are over
over attributing the likelihood of there being leverage on both sides in this situation
and i'm not making a political statement here just being logical so if anyone in the audience
gets offended by this i'm sorry ukraine cannot win that war. Russia is a nuclear power. It's impossible. We could
just send them weapons in perpetuity. We would delay the taking of Ukraine. But like, just be
logical. Put all political beliefs or your opinion about Ukraine or opinion about Russia. This isn't
a it's not a pro-Russia statement for me to say Ukraine can't win the war. That's not at all what
It's not at all what I'm saying.
I'm what I'm saying. I'm saying they literally cannot win the war. Russia has nuclear weapons.
I'm saying they literally cannot win the war.
Russia has nuclear weapons.
If it came down to it, if Ukraine somehow pulled off an insane counterattack and like, I don't know, let's really imagine here and say Ukraine pulls off an insane counterattack and pushes through the Russian border to Moscow.
Like, where does that end?
You don't think Russia at that point will say, yeah, we have to use nuclear weapons.
They're headed to our capital.
Or we have to use nuclear weapons. Listen, I don't...
Okay, so what's the definition of win?
Because what they're going to say is getting their country back.
It doesn't mean to stop the invasion by virtue of repelling the combatant.
That's the definition of win, right?
In the Ukraine situation.
If you're the defender...
It's not going and taking Moscow, though.
I repelled the
yeah but i mean you think russia's gonna stop just no they i think we're getting into it well i think
that they clearly want to get all of it i think that um yeah i mean what a victory for ukraine
here if this goes on long enough and i think putin's already almost gotten overthrown didn't actually there was
whatever that was that that um wagner group thing that happened i mean it's not like we're too far
off of crazy stuff happening and it's not dictators don't tend to have the strongest of heels
especially when their whole military gets tested he's had to stop i think i would take the other
wars on what what side i think the other side. On what side?
I think everyone is scared and on edge that something's going to happen. And I think the more likely outcome is kind of what SockTalk's alluding to here is that nothing is the more
likely thing that's going to happen. Oh, I think the most likely outcome is nothing happens from
this meeting. People love to worry and say, what if this, what if that? But I think the most likely thing is for nothing to come out of this.
If nothing comes out of this, though, what that means is more weapons to Ukraine.
Probably.
That's what it sounds like.
Unless there can be a find a way to, I don't know.
Yeah. Yeah, it's just that the NATO allies have taken the stance that if Ukraine can't win, they'd rather Ukraine lose in a war of attrition, I guess.
I mean, again, if you're being logical about this and taking off your political lens, that appears to be the alternate plan B here.
Which is, hey, look, if we can't get Russia to agree to a ceasefire, we can't get...
Do you think Ukraine is going to give up... Russia said last week, we already know what the conditions
are for a ceasefire. Putin came out last week. He said he wants the eastern Donetsk region.
So he basically wants the four major territories of Ukraine they've taken in the east. He wants
them to be ceded to Russia. Do you think Zelensky will agree to that? Of course not.
And on Russia's side, if Trump goes, hey, we'll send more weapons to Ukraine Russia will be like okay
go for it like they cannot win they cannot win it's like you're fighting an enemy who you're
both you know you have toy swords out and his back pocket he's a nine millimeter pistol like
even if you beat him with a toy sword it like it doesn't matter because you can just pull out the
nine millimeter pistol at the end when he's about to lose, and you're dead. It's a very simple, brutal analogy, but that's as simple as it is.
So it's supposed to just bend over?
Let's just take over everyone.
Canada, 51st state now.
That's the complicated part.
What I am saying, though, is that I'm not saying what the solution is,
because I don't know.
The people involved are going to have to figure that out.
I wish I had a solution. But what I do know is that the war is not I don't know. The people involved are going to have to figure that out. I wish I had a solution.
But what I do know is that the war is not winnable
for Ukraine because they're not a nuclear power.
It's that simple.
You cannot win a war versus nuclear power.
I don't know what suspension of belief
has led people into this line of thinking.
You have to literally just be willfully ignorant
to think that.
Could any non-nuclear power beat the United States in a war ever?
Not if winning the war was essential to our sovereignty.
It's impossible.
Can I give you a scary comment then?
If that's a fact, Ukraine has probably been working on a nuke on the back end on something.
I don't know.
I have no knowledge to say that. The sore reality about planet Earth right now is nuclear nations can,
nuclear powered nations can pretty much do whatever they want.
And that is the sore reality of global geopolitics in the current world.
You can look at, you can hear that and say, well, that's fucked up.
That's morally wrong.
I don't agree with that.
It doesn't matter what you agree with.
That's just the state of the world.
There's a handful of nations that have nuclear weapons that cannot be fucked with by nations that don't have them.
And that's period, end of story.
That's it.
And that's an unfortunate reality that we have to like, everyone's just decided to not be logical in this scenario.
And it's led to a loss of a lot of life.
And I don't know the solution either.
Yes, you're right. We can't just let countries with nukes do whatever they want, but for all
practical intents and purposes, they can, unless you're willing to go, unless another nuclear power
is willing to go to war with them, which I imagine no one on this call wants the United States boots
to be on the ground in that region, right? And so if you don't want the U.S. to go there and stand up to Russia, which I don't want
and I know most other people don't want, then you don't have a solution.
What other nuclear power is going to go and stand their ground and put boots on the ground
in Ukraine?
Maybe one of the European nuclear powers, but you don't want to see that either because
then you risk nuclear war.
And that'd be even worse than what's happening in Ukraine.
So I don't know.
People just aren't being practical, I think.
Like you just got to be practical and say,
what is possible here?
What could happen?
Even if we sent Ukraine,
the entire fleet of first generation fighters,
they still couldn't win.
Like they still could not win the war.
Even if we sent them,
I don't know,
a fleet of brand new tanks,
American fighter jets.
It's impossible.
It's impossible. I got, I got one for you. I disagree. American fighter jets. It's impossible. It's impossible.
I got one for you, Stock Talk.
Hypothetically, with fifth generation fighter jets, you could destroy the nukes.
I don't think so.
Russia has a lot of nukes.
Russia has a lot of nukes.
And it's like, I don't know.
Anyway, we're getting too geopolitical.
We are getting too geopolitical.
Maybe this is like a 5 p.m.
Thursdays were the geopolitical time.
But one thing, I did change the title of the space.
It's hard pivot right here.
A lot of 13 Fs are coming out right now.
Warren Buffett and Berkshire Hathaway.
Mostly Berkshire Hathaway, not Warren Buffett.
Updating their portfolio, 4.05 p.m. Eastern,
roughly around the time to expect that. Did you just kill off Warren Buffett. Updating their portfolio, 4.05 p.m. Eastern, roughly around the time
to expect that.
Did you just kill off
Warren Buffett on this space?
No, well, he said he retired.
So, you know,
he's already said
he's not really having
that much in the stock picking.
But I'm still going to put
in my wording of it
that it's Warren Buffett,
100%.
Don't get me wrong.
But yeah,
watch out for that.
There's a lot of portfolios
being updated and invested.
Google is one of the big winners from this.
Meta, a lot of people buying.
UNH, a couple, but we'll see.
There's allegedly, well, there has been a stock that Warren Buffett and Berkshire Hathaway
have been building up secretly.
They've taken a couple quarters without reporting it.
It might be this quarter we might see it.
We might not.
Everyone's speculating on what it could be.
A lot of people are excited, hoping it's UNH.
I don't know.
We'll see.
Last time this happened, it was chubb.
Is that people are excited or is that you're excited, Evan?
I don't care about it being UNH, actually, if I'm being fully transparent.
I was like, all right, what if it's Google?
This is down.
We're like the profitable company.
It's not like it's crazy evaluations or whatever. I'd be surprised there's another tech company. They sold like the profitable company. It's not like it's crazy valuations or whatever.
I'd be surprised there's another tech company.
They sold us so much Apple.
And if they wanted to diversify, I would
keep that tech vibes, but diversify.
Can you talk about that?
So you're looking for innovation instead?
Warren Buffett's a goat
for a reason. Selling Apple is one of those reasons.
Yeah, great move, right?
Spying it and then selling it, too.
He sold it as soon as the innovation stopped.
He's probably listening to Salk on Spaces. He's like, you know what?
They're right. So what you're saying is
yesterday,
when that Death's Tap Robot story came out,
he went balls to
the wall. He saw that
he's like, I'm selling the rest.
I'm buying everything. No, no, no,
no. He knows. He saw that it was like, tabletop robot, I'm selling the rest. I'm buying everything. No, no, no, no. He knows.
He saw that.
It was like tabletop robot.
I'm selling every last year.
Double down.
Get me another 90 million shares.
All right.
Stock Geek, you got your hands up?
13th season, yeah.
Stock Geek, what's up?
Got a little speculation on the Buffett stock
and a couple different ways to play it.
Been thinking about this one today.
So, you know, a lot of the AI tools were spitting out names
like Caterpillar and Honeywell, which, you know, I think are okay guesses.
If it's Honeywell, if it's Honeywell, I'm going to lose it.
Here we go.
Honeywell on three.
Why? Because you sold it?
No, I'm still losing it in a good way. Honeywell is one of my bigger positions right now. That would be fantastic.
Join me where the split up is going to be fantastic second half of next year.
One of your bigger positions as in like a top five position?
Top ten.
Okay, okay.
It's right around there.
So I think, I mean, it could be.
I don't know if it's quite cheap enough, but with Todd and Ted,
they do like a little bit more tech slash futuristic exposure. So, you know, Honeywell with the bill there,
it doesn't look quite as enticing as some of these others.
I think there are some dark forces here, though.
And the problem here with Caterpillar and Honey well today is that they're seeing pretty aggressive option activity and the
iv and the uh just overall price you're paying on those has gone up a lot if you're trying to make
a late day trade here but the um some dark horses would be something like a haliburton or schlumberger
which which both trade at like less than 10 times cash flow,
both more aggressively buying back stock. Both have rising volumes over the past three,
four months in terms of trading volumes, particularly, I believe, Halliburton when
I looked at it earlier. So those would be some dark horse candidates where you can still get
some cheap implied vol. Yeah, I took some small bets on those two with some OTM options expiring tomorrow.
But yeah, it'll be interesting.
Google is another good guess though, Ev, because volume has also increased their year to date in terms of average daily volume.
I pretty much know it's not going to be Google.
But one can just throw it right.
I wanted it thrown out there just in case it was.
Maybe it is. Maybe it isn't. If it's Honeywell
though, that'd be awesome.
It's just going to be interesting.
Intel, Evan. Trump administration.
Something about the U.S. government to take a stake
in Intel?
The bend the knee trade.
Let me look.
It just ripped.
Guys, trader market news. Bull markets are amazing. The bend the knee trade. Let me look. Oh, bro. It just ripped. Guys.
Trader market news.
Bull markets are amazing.
Oh, I love this.
Do I roll again?
Trump administration said to discuss U.S. taking stake in Intel.
I believe I had that one.
What?
You had the headline or the Intel?
That specific thing that with the MP headline,
the U.S. is going to focus on Intel
because it's the only American-based foundry.
I had this conversation with Stock Talk a month ago
after the MP headline.
Let's go.
Dude, what a...
God.
This is just great when a plan comes together roll
the options are governments gonna buy Intel equity it's the same thing the private MP MP, the Pentagon took a 10 or 15, I don't remember, percent stake in MP.
And, you know, if national security, if chips are national security.
Wait, no, there might be.
Oh, sorry, this is from the old.
I was looking at an old thing.
I apologize.
Keep going.
If chips are national security, yeah, Intel is not going to compete with AMD and NVIDIA.
But China right now takes the stronghold for all of the lesser than chips.
So one way to combat it and to have a strong arm of your own in a bargaining chip is to strengthen that end as well.
So we had this conversation, I think it was a month.
It was about a month ago about a week ago it was I give you the exact
date in the article that I'm reading right now it says it's making a call
back to hold on give me a second it's making a call back to earlier in the year when this was first discussed with intel
it says on august 5th the united states government reportedly told taiwan's semiconductor that if it
wants to secure a 15 standard tariff currently at 20 that tsmC must find a way to accelerate U.S. investment. The suggestion made
by the White House at that time was that TSMC would acquire a 49% stake in Intel, the United
States government would take a complementary stake, I don't know what that means, and TSMC would make an additional investment of 400 billion in U.S. semiconductor production.
So that's the first deal that was quote unquote reportedly discussed. But considering all the
details there, I don't think that that's made up because there are some very specific numbers
there and quote. So that would be interesting again we talked about this yesterday
i do not like the idea of the united states government taking stakes and companies but
that's an entirely separate conversation um yeah so we'll get into that i don't like the idea
this is what i'm saying though when i'm saying like like how am i how am i going to feel anything
but just so bear so bullish right now?
And just random trades that I'm taking right now off of my thoughts are working.
That doesn't happen in anything but raging bull markets.
Well, that's good, buddy.
That means your process is getting better.
No, I think it just means this market's crazy right now and throwing darts is a good time.
Does that mean that?
That's what I assume.
This market is crazy, but it's been tough to capture volatility on some of the runs.
It's obviously going up, but if you're trying to capture outperformance in the right areas,
it's been tricky at certain points.
All right.
Who's going to buy Lyft next?
I'm in them.
Bag holding a little.
It's that type of money right now.
You're bag holding still?
On the calls.
Yeah.
Oh, yeah.
On my closer dated calls,
I'm down a little bit too,
but the longer dated ones
went green after this two-day move.
Still bad.
It's been nice.
Recaptured all.
It's crazy how chart can change
in two days.
It'll really change.
And not only the daily change
on Lyft in the past two days,
the weekly change too.
The weekly got a lot prettier.
So, yeah,
we'll see what happens with Lyft.
But, yeah,
I like the story there for now.
All right, Wolfie.
Top five stocks that Warren Buffett may have been buying that were secret holdings that they were going?
I like the oil names, man.
You could take Sean Lowe.
Yeah, that would be so boring.
But it makes sense, though.
The job is boring.
It'd also be funny if it's Intel. That would be so boring. But it makes sense, though. It'd also be funny if it's Intel.
That would be really funny.
Just to put that one out there.
Because then it'll go really crazy.
It'll be $30.
Buffett and the U.S. government.
I actually like that.
Yeah, it also would be funny.
But, you know, the Intel thing don't like i don't like that the
government is now deciding to do this i said it you know i looked it up by the way it was july 15th
we had that conversation um i was in atlanta so i remember that um i don't like i don't like it but
that's the game right the game is that they are deciding to go this route. And, you know, if you show up and kiss the ring and give them a gold pendulum, then you can get access. And that's kind of been the thing. If you don't have to like it, just know that that's the game.
And so then if you think that way, then you can just start doing back of envelope stuff where you try to think what other companies are up for it.
And I do think that from a Buffett perspective, like Buffett kind of took that approach in Great Financial Crisis when he built out and got sweetheart deals for himself.
So I do think if that's on the table, it's not something that you want to ignore.
You guys were talking about markets in general, so just talk really briefly.
That print today, I think, just kind of give, again, I think we get ammo from both sides.
We get a CPI that's cool.
People are like, they need to cut.
You get a CPI that's hot.
And then you're going to have like the certain members of the fed um saying we need to wait and see or take our time or better late than
early and so i you know i i don't think again i don't think i think the main thing is there's a
positioning aspect in the last several years with derivatives and all that stuff exploding that didn't exist as much
15, 20 years ago. And I think when positioning, offsides positioning gets married with
a change in the, you know, whatever macro sentiment might exist, That's where you, that's where you get those sparks and those boom busts.
And I think that, you know,
for the back half of the next quarter I think things will be okay.
But I think, you know, in the next couple of months,
once this position kind of, kind of rolls off here in the next, you know,
a month or so you might,
we might have that like little air pocket situation where you
get the 25 basis point cut potentially. And then they're just like, we're data dependent,
we have to stay data dependent. And the other thing about the data dependency, the thing I
want to wait for from Powell, you know, he's kind of dodged the question about will they raise if the data suggests that they've
raised. He's just dodged it by saying we'll stay data dependent, but not actually answer.
You know, I think the quote unquote concern. So like when I say concerns, it's not like,
you know, the sky's going to fall or anything. But the concern for to focus on, in my opinion,
is a change in language there, right? So if he's asked
anything like that, or if he suggests that we'll hike if we have to, then that's a situation where
he can actually kind of give people the cut that they want, but also keep the bulls at bay by,
you know, kind of quelling them and beating them over the head with language. So I think that's
kind of like the thing to point to on the Powell front,
both Jackson Hole and for the September meeting.
Outside of that, I think a lot of these oil names look good, technically,
and I think they haven't sold off the way they should sell off.
I posted a couple of charts.
Feel free to go through my feed. Off the top of
my head, Oxy, Buffett name looks good. Valero, back to his 200-day, looks decent. There were a
couple of names mentioned by StockGeek. Those charts look fine as well. Chevron looks good,
looks good pressed up right against to a gap. Like there's a lot of these names that like
pressed up right against to a gap. There's a lot of these names that structurally look good.
structurally look good. And if we have like a situation where people are prepping for,
you know, just a little bit of a softening, but the softening isn't as bad as expected.
And then the inflation part, it's not bad, but it's not ideal. That could be kind of like a sweet spot for some of
these oil and oil derivatives in the back half of the year and the front part of next year,
just from a positioning standpoint. So that's kind of like where my head's at. I did mention
a couple of names yesterday. One of them was Duolingo. Took a trade on Duolingo yesterday.
I mentioned it just talking on the back of what Sam said.
That move gave you an 8% bounce off of yesterday's,
not even the identical lows,
but just trading it against the lows yesterday.
Got an 8% bounce into today.
I've cut most of it.
Options did really well.
But I think that's kind of a market
we're going to probably be in.
There's not a real reason to just like abhor like just mass exit anything um a lot of these different
type of themes will work the kiss the ring trade works uh and the knee bend the knee let's go with
what i'm doing the knee kiss the ring whatever i like i like kiss the ring You can go with Bend the Knee. And I think this Russia-Trump thing, to me, it's more of a show than anything.
I don't really subscribe to more than that at this time.
We'll see if he changes his mind or if anything happens.
But I think the point about the lack of nukes is important.
I think Russia kind of knows that.
I think the U.S. kind of knows that.
I think they're kind of trying to go for a cooler heads prevail type of thing,
but we'll see what comes of it.
You know, I don't particularly foresee that something crazy is going to come of it,
but what do I know?
Another one from a Buffett perspective to kind of look out for is possibly Boeing.
That's another one I'd say.
I want to play this game here.
I'm going to write it down.
We'll run it on the record.
No one knows what's going to happen.
We don't even know if we're going to get it.
Give me one, two, three names that you want on record that you're like, all right, if it's in there, I called it.
We're going to put Boeing as one.
So I'd like to – I'll take the – first, I'll take the opposite side of it.
I think there's actual –
We don't get it?
Yeah, I think there's actual a good risk reward to bet like weekly puts on UNH
if people are like assuming it's UNH.
And if it's not, you could see like a 10-point sell-off
and really get some bang for your buck there.
So I'll start there. But throw Intel in there, throw Boeing in there,
throw Chevron in there.
All right, we'll give you three.
That's a good three.
That's it.
That's fine.
That's fine.
All right, Stocky, what do you want?
You gave us some earlier.
Yeah, I think I'm going to take – I'm going to take... I'll give you two guesses.
Halliburton or Schlumberger.
Okay.
Halliburton or Schlumberger.
Those are my long shot picks.
All right, StockSniper.
I think I saw a hand.
You got any one you're going to throw in there?
Yeah, I'm going to have to take Lockheed Martin and Monster Energy.
And just for the record...
What are we talking?
Zero chance on the Monster.
Watch. But for the record... What do we talk? Zero chance on the monster. Watch.
But for the record, I was going to say
Bend the Knee is a cooler name than Kiss the Ring,
but now I kind of want to take my statement back.
Yeah, keep talking more.
Keep talking more.
No, but I am bullish on monster.
Not joking.
Smart guy.
Drink tech.
Maybe Buffett knows.
All right, Stock Talk.
We're over to you.
I haven't really thought about it.
Just give me one or two out there.
It's going to be American Eagle, bro.
American Eagle?
Alright, I'll throw you mine.
I'm going to put Honeywell, and I'm going to put Google.
I just haven't thought about it, so I can't give you a random stock.
I haven't even thought about it.
I saw people tweeting about it all day today, but that's not really... I'm not going to put Google. I just haven't thought about it, so I can't give you a random stock. I haven't even thought about it. I saw people tweeting about it
all day today, but that's not really...
I'm not going to go chase whatever he buys.
Just get something on the list.
It's just picking from a hat.
I didn't think of it.
I don't know. What are some names I saw today?
I saw some people post UPS.
UPS is boring. You think he does the UNH?
Yeah. I don't know. He's probably going to do something boring.
I don't think he does the UNH.
Probably going to be a boring name. Last time it was Chubb. I don't know. He's probably going to do something boring. I don't think he does the UNH. Probably going to be like a boring name.
Last time it was Chubb.
I don't think it's going to be a small name.
Oh, I misread the question.
Sorry.
I'll take FedEx.
FedEx and wildcard Coinbase.
Wait, what did you misread the question as, Snape?
I thought we were asking about stocks that we were personally bullish on.
Now you're wondering why
i have a laugh at you for monster yes that explains a lot there is a good company yeah
people will be doing kyle memes of war buffett that'd be hilarious no of course not of course
not monster um no i have no idea i haven't even thought about it so i could catch the name random
stocks all right i'm gonna give stock talk weekly apple
do not give me apple ever in any and then rkt rkt and i don't ever want to be assigned apple in any
as well in any uh format what's up chris we're playing a little game here of uh warren buffett's
portfolio is about to be updated in 10 minutes no one knows what he's gonna buy but we want some
names on like you know if it is that you're gonna tell me you want to be updated in 10 minutes. No one knows what he's going to buy, but we want some names on like, you know, if it is that.
You're going to tell me you want to put you in age?
No one said it yet.
No, no.
Maybe it's open door.
You know, maybe he's just going full on.
We'll put him on an open door.
That's it.
I would, if I had to guess, I'd say it's something in the energy space because energy is taken a massive beating and multiples of really contracted so he knows
like um energy eventually will come back and that's when he can really like make a lot of
money and he's he's been known to be an energy guy for like forever so if i had to guess i'd say
either an energy company or an energy services company so i'm trying to figure out which one but
stocky came with halliburton and Schlumberger.
Yeah, but I think Hal's probably too small. I'm thinking again about Hal, because I think
Hal's too small of a market cap for him, most likely, unless he went real big in terms of
percentage ownership. But I think he'd have to file 13D in that case. But Schlumberger
may be in the mix, but I do like, I like that sector as a whole. Oil services stocks look
cheap, buying back more shares.
It's definitely got some Buffett qualities to it.
Yeah, the other thing is also insurance.
So it might – I don't think it – honestly, I don't – I want it to be UNH.
see that he doesn't typically mess around with things that have like this like weird cyclical
kind of move at times where things can get really unpredictable. And healthcare, one of those things
like UNH has been known to be one of the best companies that's been able to kind of dodge these
like uncontrolled costs with the exception of last year, mainly because they had a huge
cyber attack from one of their change healthcare division. So that's probably something that's
probably keeping him away from the sector. So I don't think it's going to be healthcare. And last
time he held UNH, because he did buy it at one point very early in, I think 2008 or nine,
I think he sold it within like a year or two. So it's just
not something that I think he enjoys. And I also think that that's probably some PR issues that
might go along with it. So I don't know. He just shies away from that. So I'd say it could also be
the banks, guys. The banks, like financials, have been getting a bid with rotation out of growth and into value for a lot of value investors.
So if I had to guess, it's either oil or banks.
All right.
I'm going to put you down for Oclo and Robinhood and open.
Nice.
Nice.
All right.
I appreciate you, Chris. Definitely feel free to jump into the conversation
i know this next couple minutes we're getting a lot of 13 fs so we're also getting bill ackman
see if he made any changes the market's closing here like i said buffett generally goes 4 0 5 p.m
eastern every single time maybe maybe this is the time he chose to break tradition. We'll see. But, yeah.
Also, I do recognize that Buffett's probably not making all of these decisions as well anymore, as he has said.
So, you might want to keep that in mind.
Speaking of Ackman, I was looking again at his a couple months ago.
He took a big stake in Hertz, and it's back down below where the stock was when the news came out.
Yeah, it's going to be interesting, though.
There's some interesting dynamics there, though.
It's one I need to dig into a little deeper
because there could be some longer-term turnaround potential there.
Good vibes.
I rolled my Intel calls up to the 25, by the way.
Bend the knee trade looking pretty
and yeah let's hope
buy my bags Buffett
market is closed
we'll see I'm going to continuously
refreshing this
market did just close there
complete break even day on
PQQ was read by
point zero eight oh market strong market that's pretty sorry for the bears
they I mean they could have at least taken it down to the 90 ma or something
like no dude like we didn't even come close. No, it's like still it's like $10. It's like $8 away
I think the focus should be on pockets of overvaluation
That need to get corrected rather than the general market because I mean if you think about it
The the main leaders of this
rally have been pretty much the mega caps right like and they're all doing really well on the ai
trade and they're making money hand over fist so it's that's not where you're gonna find a lot of
like huge downward moves and then the rest of the market is pretty much just chilling you know
they're they're not growing much but they're not like you know in bubblish territory so i don't
really see any sort of massive correction that the bears could like live off of from an index
standpoint but i do think you're you're going to see your pockets of overvaluation that will
correct when you have like unique events like look at ttd what what ttd yeah what was he before
sorry no aim applied materials just reported really bad.
Yeah.
Okay.
All right.
We'll look at that in a second.
Sorry, Chris.
We're on edge.
Yeah, Chris.
No, it's all good.
No, I'm just saying, like, you can see that, you know, expectations, if they've run really
high for a company, it doesn't take much to crash them in this kind of situation, right?
What did Td close today
down again it was getting flat i saw walmart said they were dropping them
i mean look at core weave man core weave core weave can't catch a
catch a bid you know so because because unlock just happened that's because
Corwin's unlock just happened.
That's because Corwin's unlock just happened.
core is unlocked just happened that's why
That's why.
Is it really?
That's the only reason?
Yes.
That's the reason why it's down massively in the last couple of days, yes.
I thought it was because their numbers.
Dumping after the unlock.
Okay.
And selling prior to the unlock.
Yeah.
So then what about Nebius?
Why is that down so much?
In sympathy to it.
In sympathy?
True. Yeah, and I mean, Nebius is still above the down so much? In sympathy to it. Sympathy. In sympathy? True.
Yeah, and I mean, Nebius is still above the 90 of May, I think.
Yeah, it is.
So that's just a healthy pullback for Nebius after a ridiculous move.
Yeah, and basically tripled in a few months.
How dare it drop?
Actually, all of the major center stocks were down on the first leg down on CoreWeave.
All of the major center stocks were down on the first leg down on CoreWeave.
And then today, the Bitcoin mining ones stood out because of the Wolf move to the upside because the Google deal.
And then Cypher and Iron and Hut and Riot and all those went up today because of that.
But they were also down in sympathy to CoreWeave initially as well.
You know, big shout out to Sam, by the way.
This dude stuck it out with uh nebius and was trying
to like tell everyone i still remember everyone's a gold they're just a bunch of russian oligarchs
and like that like it was so my goodness that russian argument was just absurd at that point
and it's like one of those memes you'd see all the time where it's like no no one's online when
it's third when it's 24 bucks and now that it's 70 bucks everyone's online that sort of thing
uh also kudos to stock talk too even from like a short-term trading spread well actually this
isn't short term for him but from a trading perspective too like he was on it with this
one too you sometimes whenever i'm in on something and start talking about it it's like awesome all
the people in my discord make fun of me because whenever i refer to nebius i say core position nebius so they all make fun of me yeah
but i think i've what's that then it's been what'd you say appaloosa took a position in intel
who did appaloosa that is david tepper right i believe so oh interesting that thing's gonna
have quite it you still have those calls, Evan?
Yeah.
I rolled them up, though.
I'm in 240 calls now.
Damn, Evan.
You're becoming your own little monster over there, rolling out calls and stuff.
It's a new Evan.
UNH as well.
The Intel one.
Intel has been looking sexy.
I rolled those up like three times.
There you go. Bend the the knee what are you saying temper increased his unh position by 1300 as well
ins and hers probed by us ftc over cancellation practices that's that's that's like a fine type
thing honestly yeah that's a nothing burger the the the lawsuit you want to pay attention to is the, uh, the fake, the, the, the fake drug one.
That's the Novo Nordisk one, right?
I think it's Novo and I think there's, there might be one with, uh, Lily, but yeah, Novo Nordisk is the main one.
All right, 4.05 though, we're getting close to Warren Buffett time.
Yeah, real fast, uh, applied materials guidance guidance was really bad 1.91 to 2.3
versus 2.39 estimated and they also guided down on their revenue nasty almost a billion
wow a billion is a big guide down for them yep tepper's only new position was intel by the way
A billion is a big guy down for them.
Yeah.
Tepper's only new position was Intel, by the way.
Oh, he bought more Apple?
UNH is, yeah.
And then UNH is the second largest position now.
Sold out of Broadcom.
Sold out of, as their Apple puts, Irma.
Did he sell out of China?
LVS and Avgo is what he sold out of.
Oh, that's interesting
I didn't even know
he was in
RTX is the other new position he took
that is funny though
David Tepper a new stake in Intel
8 million shares
the only Apple I see
is puts that he sold
is he still in China? he didn't sell any China yet? The only Apple I see is puts that he sold.
Is he still in China?
He didn't sell any China yet?
JD reduced by 13%. PDD reduced by 54%.
Let's wait, though.
We don't care about that.
Wait, we're good.
All these people change a bunch.
We'll dig into Teppers when we get the photo out a little bit later.
But Buffett's the one that we care about at this point in time.
And there's a lot of others.
Ackman is interesting.
I would say I care more about Ackman and others than Buffett.
If you look at all these 13Fs, though,
a lot of them trim and trade around positions and do stuff.
So to read them all out is a little tough.
What I look for is the new positions and the full exits.
You know, if Ackman hadn't come out against UNH,
he probably would have bought the dip hard
because that really does fit into his wheelhouse.
And then we get like a five-page tweet from them.
I've never read one of them.
Either have I.
The one to actually read is Howard Marks.
He just put out a letter about how the market's kind of looking a little frothy,
and maybe it's time to kind of roll into defensive a little bit.
So it's worth a read.
It's a good reminder on evaluation.
Interesting.
Because Howard Marks' portfolio was one of the ones that was standing
out a little bit to people because every name in there no one knew there was like all right
a lot of the comments were like i've heard of three names in here four names in here
blah blah it was one of the more different portfolios everyone's been focused on growth
for the last year and a half two years so you And you know, with Howard Marks,
they do either deep value investing
or sometimes distressed debt.
Yeah, he's very big in credit.
Yeah.
Him and Bruce Karsh from Oaktree.
And what's funny is they have a partnership with Brookfield.
So they've got capital behind their name
to make some moves if they need to.
All right, where are you, Buffett?
Lift a new chair, is what that just said.
Can you lift me?
All right, sorry.
Good Lord.
I can't sing.
I'm really bad, actually.
So yeah, you got to set yourself.
Announces, update to board of directors
and voting, enhance voting.
That doesn't matter.
LCC probes hims and hers over cancellation practices.
Yeah, we brought that up briefly.
That's not the type of thing.
That's like you're going to get fined for more than the other ones,
which are more business practices.
And yeah.
So you guys are fast forge i think the bigger the
bigger problem with hymns is going to be around the compounding thing because if i mean look it's
no secret that half of congress is bought and paid for by the pharma companies and now you're
starting to see like from a legislative standpoint there's already like work coming down to say oh
you know we have to protect ip so um even though
the compounders have a pretty strong case in that they quote unquote tailor um these these therapies
or medications to to patients um eli lily and norvo they've got a lot of money to put towards
this glp1 um protection so they're like i said right now i'm already starting to see legislation, you know, like
basically come out and say, oh, we should. And what's funny is that's antithetical to
affordable healthcare, you know? So yeah, I'm not, I'm not sure how everything is going to
pan out for HIMSS and, and all the other compounders. So that's just something to keep an eye on.
That's just something to keep an eye on.
I personally still have not seen.
Oh, there it is.
Whoa, UNH is up 5%.
Oh, no fucking way am I about to look in here and see UNH.
Warren Buffett bought UNH.
Wow.
1.5 million shares of United Healthcare.
Dinner and Chris tomorrow.
You guys, if only you guys knew how much UNH I have.
I am. Okay. All right. I got to call my brother because I got him on mute.
You know, and he was was like he was like calling me
about like a week ago he's like man i don't know if you really know how to invest anymore you're
losing your touch i was like god damn bro fucking judas over here it's like i took your portfolio
from like 80k to a million and you're like oh no like you messed up on you and all right whatever
i'll live it it's fine you only remember people by their failures, not by their success.
That's how people do it.
Yeah.
That's why I'm
so memorable.
Get out of here, man.
Get out of here.
Wow. Oh, fuck. I spelled Warren Buffett wrong.
Sam, this report's about to blow up, bro.
We need to raise the rates.
I misspelled it, too.
UNHG.
What a time to be working with a 2X long UnitedHealth ETF.
If anyone doesn't know, UNHG, trades in after hours.
All right, I want to see a little bit more in this portfolio
as much change, but Control-F,
there is a UnitedHealth Group in here.
Wow, that's crazy united health group that's not like the the subsidiary right he didn't no yeah it wouldn't be in here
it would just be unh five uh let's see what else would have changed oh he's down five percent
dr horton lamar yeah the website let's see if it's here oh there it is okay
so reduced apple reduced bank of america is this
bought united health bought nucor bought lennar bought dr horton bought a lot of home builders
during the quarter if this is fully accurate we're up to 41 stocks now, up from 36 last quarter.
One thing to remember, this is the quarter that the TerraDrop happened in.
Are these home builders moving higher right now?
Lenar.
A little move higher.
A little move higher.
Yeah, Lenore's a new position, but it's smaller.
United Health was the big one, though.
That's like a top 20 position.
Did they sell it for anything?
The only thing they fully sold out of was T-Mobile.
fully sold out of was T-Mobile.
He must.
T-Mobile.
So no monster,
huh?
No monster.
Wow,
that's crazy. You should change the title of the
of the spaces.
Dan, I've just said that the only
way Apple can catch up in the AI race
is through an acquisition.
I don't know why they don't.
It's so ridiculous that they don't.
I don't know if that's
fully true. They definitely need the talent.
But, I mean, if we're actually in
the first inning...
All right. but I mean if we're actually in like the first inning all right added to constellation brands
Wow unexpected so no one said UNH no one wanted to go with the crowd and talk
about Buffett and UNH is Berg up here up here? I heard him, but it doesn't
show him as a speaker.
I think Chris is not
celebrating right now.
There we go. Up to 6%. I'm hurting.
I'm hurting.
You thought it was a... Kevin was like,
I'm getting another oil. Yeah, dude, I sold
out of my UNH
300 calls for September
this morning.
Gosh, it's at 290 right now.
Yeah.
I'm hurt, man.
I mean, it's still a nice trade, but this sucks.
Heaven, your thread is broken.
I haven't put anything second on it.
I'm waiting for the Acumen one to go second.
Nucor is also ripping right now on that same release.
It's up 8%.
Was it 5 billion or 5 million shares
of UNH? 5 million.
I misread it too. It's 5 million shares with
1.5 billion.
What did I say in my tweet?
You said it correctly. I misheard
you originally and I thought you said $5 billion.
I might have said billion because what they do in these 13Fs is first column,
they show the dollar amount and then the second column.
Yeah, they show the shares and then the dollar amount.
Yeah, it's 5.03 million shares worth $1.5 billion.
It is 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6.
It's his 18th largest position.
Wow.
I mean, at the end of the day,
the risk for UNH right now is Medicaid.
But, I mean, they can't.
Weren't we talking about the monthly setup on this
yesterday Evan was it yesterday
or before maybe two days ago
I was talking about how it had that setup
god I should have bought calls
I was like you're really on setup well
yeah
yo is that
am I crazy or is this three quarters
in a row where Warren Buffett has
deducted his Apple position?
I'm not taking a shot at you,
Evan,
but like,
seriously,
I think he's continuing to sell Apple.
I'm noticing a little trend here.
Yeah.
You hear tabletop robots sell another 7%.
I think he was,
I mean,
he was pretty,
he's pretty over concentrated in that name for like,
like a couple of years now,
I think.
So kind of makes sense.
Kevin, you were going gonna say something there before?
Oh yeah, no, I'm saying for UNH,
I mean, at the end of the day,
it's kind of one of those situations
where it's a healthcare company
that's kind of too big to fail.
So yeah, they have some legal issues
when it comes to Medicaid.
Most likely, you know, I'm speculating,
but most likely they'll settle that out and then they'll continue to move forward.
And then a perceived losses, it's an insurance company and Warren and Berkshire are pros
at the insurance business.
So any offsets or losses, what they'll do is just incrementally increase premiums over
time, you know, and they're one of the major providers when it comes to employer provided
insurance. So they have a little bit more pricing power in that regard, right? Because
it's only like UNH, you got what? Humana. Humana is another one. But UNH, I mean, may
have been a little bit too oversold and he found a value there. So kind of makes sense.
And actually, if you kind of look at the healthcare space as a whole over the last couple of days,
it's been doing really good.
I mean, a week ago, everybody was like down on Lilly.
Look what Eli Lilly is doing right now, testing the gap and retracing.
I think it's like up 12% off the lows, if I'm not mistaken, something close to that.
So the healthcare for Lilly, I'm not sure. I'm not mistaken, something close to that. So the healthcare... Is the healthcare dispute?
For Lilly?
I'm not sure.
I'm not sure for Lilly.
But it's been like... I mean, look at the price action today and then look at the price action yesterday.
It's been like...
It's been aggressive buying.
So it's testing the gap.
We'll see how that goes.
Healthcare has been underperforming.
So even if you look at the XLV, it was kind of at the lower end of its channel.
Last three days, we just caught a little bit of bids.
And if you're looking at it, I'm going off of memory, but I think it's, what, 135 area of resistance there.
So that's an industry and a sector that is impervious to inflationary pressures.
You know, so if we have this inflationary shock that people are freaking out about, about PPI today,
they could be one of the ones that kind of
could be a little bit more resilient in that regard.
It was their CEO and their EVP that both bought shares.
CEO bought, I mean, relative to their overall
amount of security zone, it's not big purchases,
but in dollar amounts, decent size.
He bought 1600 shares on the 12th and then their EVP yesterday bought a thousand shares by
the way on the Buffett thing when you combine some of the numbers together he
actually put more money towards home builders during the quarter and he did
towards the UNH healthcare play
But he just played it towards new Corlin our dear Horton. Yeah, I mean people care more about the new positions obviously
I'm still waiting for more of these I want to see like
Ackman's people that's that's the good one people People like to kind of, for better, for worse.
I want to add to my thread.
I also want to do Gates, Pepper.
I didn't see Tappers yet on here.
So, waiting for that one.
Duquesne family office, man.
The GOAT.
They just own every stock, though, is the problem. So, they tend to look a little later.
Dude, this UNH chart now, after after this move if this move holds into 290
is going to look even prettier than it did yesterday when we were talking about it
it's going to look because it's going to recapture the 50 day it's going to recapture the nine week
ema which is it this entire cell has ridden the nine-week EMA to the downside. Like, from 600 all the way down here, it's just run into the nine-week EMA and gotten rejected.
And this move, this after-hours move, will recapture the nine-week EMA, recapture the 50-day moving average,
and bring us about $50 below the 100-month.
And you have the 50-month stacked above that at 470,
this thing could just go crazy off the lows.
I know it's like a one-day move,
but I mean, after it cools down,
if it comes back and retests this breakout spot,
you can see 360 so fast.
I might have to...
Yeah, you got people squeezing too.
You got people squeezing.
I got to give Evan and
Emp credit. I think
when you guys first saw it, you said buy.
I just hit the buy signal. I bought
$50,000 worth of stock. I think I got
it. I added position at 240
when my algorithm told me to.
I just doubled it down when you guys did.
So I will share the profits with you with a high five.
I thought he said he was going to share the profits to you, period.
Yeah, I'll take a steak dinner.
I'll take a steak dinner.
Sounds like I should take a steak and lobster dinner.
Goddamn.
Well, there we go.
If it goes to 360 like Stock Talk does, and yeah, it's steak and lobster.
We'll see.
If I wanted to throw a hashtag ad out there
a couple times, fantastic time.
2X UNH ETF, UNHG.
Now, know what you're buying with these 2X ETFs,
but we'll see.
I mean, assuming no more bad news comes out,
a recovery to 330 seems like a foregone conclusion
just based on the daily chart,
but 355 to 360 feels very reasonable.
Well, Warren doesn't stop.
It's 16 times forward earnings.
It's 16 times forward earnings.
And Warren doesn't stop, right?
It's the initial position.
He's going to continue to add on.
I mean, that's D.R. Horton.
He's had that for a couple of quarters, at least, if I'm not mistaken, right?
I'm pretty sure he has.
It's one of those times where you just say, shut up and buy. And when you guys said, yeah,
he bought it, just buy. I saw the chart. I said, you know what? Shut up and buy. And I just did.
So kudos to everybody else who took your advice because there's value in these spaces.
Even when you guys are oohing and eyeing over boner pills and stuff, it's great.
Y'all won't believe.
I called my brother and said,
hey,
you and H it's freaking up 7%.
You know what this asshole's response to me was?
What's the next one,
bro?
You're so smart,
man.
I knew you were,
I knew I could trust you.
Fucking bastard.
You can always disown your brother.
Tell him if you want some names that I own and if you want to buy Honeywell.
I'm in a short-term Lyft trade.
If you want to get into my Lyft, that'd be nice.
I'm kidding.
Intel.
That's been going great recently.
He's like 80% treasuries, all right?
He's like risk off.
I had to literally beg him to buy UNH.
I was like, look, man. I know you're a conservative guy,
but this is one of those things.
It's trading at an 8, 10 PE.
Like it's really good company.
You know, they've got a lot of pricing power,
their largest healthcare insurer.
But I don't know, whatever, it doesn't matter.
But yeah, I'm glad everyone here.
I hope you guys have UNH positions and yeah,
we'll celebrate together on Spaces on Monday.
I still want to see more of these portfolios.
What did you say?
Bitcoin's continuing to sell here, coming down into 118 now, down like 4.5%.
Intel delays a deal closing.
I'm seeing... Was that a
Wall Street Engine tweet? That Stockmarine News tweet?
Intel delays
Altera deal closing
to September 13th.
Intel continue to move in after hours,
by the way. Is the U.S.
buying them? Are they buying a stake
in this company, too?
They didn't want the commodity.
That was a joke, by the way. I know it's a joke but I just
I hate it in general
I'm happy that I owned with calls
at the time it happened besides that
my viewpoint is kind of skewed
what I don't get is just like okay
people were against the CHIPS Act
because they felt like
the CHIPS Act was too
communist or whatever like this is better
yeah we weren't buying stakes and companies exactly like is this better you know what's
crazy it's not the first time but the other times that we put stakes or you know bought
stakes into companies is during financial crisis right so like we did the same thing during the financial crisis for the banks especially for Citi which I'm not sure if we actually still have some
shares like and then what the automakers remember that that was another one but
like we don't you know really do this a lot now MP materials may be a little bit
different because that's a national security you You know, I don't know. Even MP, I think, is still a little bit of a stretch.
But, you know, here nor there. I mean, if you're a shareholder, though, you know, you love
the news. But I have a sneaking suspicion stock talk
that we're going to hear this a lot more. It feels like this is
about to be the new norm and not one-offs.
Yeah. I mean, I don't mind the government
incentivizing. Like, to your point, yeah, I agree. Rare metals are a national security issue. I mean,
I think we can even paint the idea that semiconductors are a national security issue.
I think it's important that we nearshore or do our best to build as many parts of the
semiconductor chain as we can domestically. Obviously, we can't come close to doing all of it anytime soon. But yeah, you're going to need incentives
to make that happen. And you're going to need to do things that make companies want to build here.
But I don't like this route. I don't like the route of like yeah we'll take a golden share style stake in intel
to make this happen because then we start leaning into what china does you know where you have ccp
officials on the boards of every major company they have a one to five percent stake and
they you know it's considered a golden share stake where they can overrule board votes and
make sure the companies are CCP compliant.
Like, I'm not saying we're getting I'm not saying we're there.
We're nowhere close to there.
I'm not trying to make too much of a slippery road argument here.
But I don't like leaning in that direction.
I mean, I guess people on different sides of the political aisle might have different opinions on that.
But I don't want the U.S. government to be like, like yeah we need to take a stake in Intel and this company in that company
you know you can incentivize them in other ways without directly investing in the companies it
just to me feels doesn't feel capitalist doesn't feel in the capitalist spirit of this country but
I know there's people that are gonna slam me for that so whatever but that's my actual opinion can
I ask a question you know
mp materials is less is different so when we've done this in the past it's been you know too big
to fail everything's going to fall off and i'm not saying intel's that but is intel on its way
to being a failure and and is does do we not want taiwan semi or another company let that happen
like we we let that happen in america like if that happen in America. Like, if you get out-competed, you get out-competed.
They've been out-competed.
But do we go back to that national security kind of thing?
I guess you could just take over the time.
But it's different.
Yeah, it's different, though, Evan.
Taiwan's trying to sell us as many chips as they possibly can.
The only thing that they ask from us is that we help them in defense, right?
Which that stance hasn't changed.
With MP materials, the rare earths that have been processed, because that's what China does. us is that we help them in defense right which that stance hasn't changed with mp materials
the rare earths that have been processed because that's what china does we have the rare earths
here in the united states we have more than enough rare earth metals and minerals if you're looking
in canada or not california if you're looking in nevada it's just we don't want to mine at that
scale and then I'll just
call it smelting because that's what you do with copper. But refining rare earths is something we
just don't have the infrastructure for and China does. It's just like Australia. Australia has a
whole bunch of rare earth minerals, but they have to export it over to China in order to get it
processed. And then they bring it back to Australia. That's a little bit different,
even though I'm not even a fan of the Imped right? That's a little bit different, even though I'm not even a fan of the MP deal, right? That's a little bit different where China
was basically up, like holding those up in a trade war immediately. Whereas this situation,
we're not at war. We're not in a trade war with Taiwan. Taiwan wants nothing more than to give us
chips, right? In fact, they don't
even want us to export the technology here. That's the biggest sticking point. Because
if we get the technology here, then we're not going to defend them, right? There's geopolitics
that, right? But I think that those are two different things. And then for Intel, they
should sell the fab or spin off the fab. I don't know if they could sell the fab because
it seems like the process that they're doing within that that fab is just something that no one wants to
uh do business with for whatever reason sounds like they may have just sold the fab you just
don't like the customer that was a joke i just thought it was good but they could they could
i mean you can build a fab all you want but if you build a fab that's not cutting edge or something
that the street does that the market is not desiring, then it's completely worthless.
That's kind of how I look at it.
So if they sold the fab off and went back to their core business and restructured, the CEO will do that, then they're probably going to be fine.
But do you consider Intel to be too big to fail in technology in the United States?
I don't i don't
think so not enough to throw money at them maybe i'm wrong i'd rather see a partnership with all
of the i would love to see a partnership with the invidia's amds of the world they all take a joint
venture 25 stake 20 stake get four or five of those things, companies together, put down on the fab and have it operate
that way and just have somebody manage it, right? That would be kind of the clean route to go. And
then you would know that whatever they need from a market standpoint would actually then be
implemented at scale, right? Like that should be the route that they go but we're not right so we're going to
proceed building a fab that has a process that is not even desired in the industry right now
it just seems like a failing uh venture from the start but i don't want to be a dooms person but
it's like autos right like some of the auto manufacturing right wrong or indifferent even
when they went down and went under and we needed to bail them out. I mean, you could have made the case
that, yeah, like allow them to actually restructure themselves, consolidate, which a fair amount of
them did, and let them be able to right size their business and then move forward. Rather than kind
of saturating that market with dollars from the government they might not
be put to to use in the best in the best way that actually makes it advantageous for those
customers that want to buy their products but i'm with i mean if you're a shareholder by all means
you want to see i i think you have intel calls right didn't you say that yesterday or two days ago i did well kevin i've been rolling them up so i've taken them yeah i'm still holding them i wrote market order tomorrow on the open 25s
i don't know market order on the open i'm just kidding don't do that i think i think maybe what
30 for it no i'm kidding we'll see but i've already pocketed in 3x 4x what i put into it so
i'm down to roll up one or two more times.
Well, if this has like an MP,
if this has like an MP style, which is different,
MP had a smaller float, right?
No one knew who that company was.
So it ripped really hard.
But let's just say theoretically it has that type of a move
for whatever reason.
It would go a lot higher than 30 bucks what
would actually be crazy if the story was not true came out and denied it tomorrow
that would that is the Intel story though this stock this is the level we're
actually above it a little bit where it's like, all right, every time slap back down, you suck Intel. So we'll see.
Stock talk? What are you going to say?
Yeah, I'm with Kevin on the rare earth metals thing. I think it's very important that we
near shore it. I mean, you look at the refining bottleneck and he's right on point there. That's
exactly the bottleneck. We just don't have refining infrastructure. You know, the white
mess of mill, which I talked about a little bit energy fuels white mesa mill where they mill uranium that's how there you go michael burry looks like he bought unh as
well yeah i wrote all these guys are buying unh um i was gonna say yeah so the white mesa mill
there's a pilot program happening there right now in re re standing for rare earth elements pilot
program happening there now where they are
refining trace amounts of various rare earth metals at the uranium mill using conventional
refining methods but it's not nearly enough infrastructure there needs to be billions of
dollars investment in rare earth refining infrastructure so that's going to take time
and yeah like the MP deal you know it didn't rub me as much of the wrong way because this one
feels a little bit more set up where they met with the cabinet and then now this rumor is coming out
and again maybe it's not even true but i don't know you look at all the great american companies
like you know you go to whatever that site is companiesmarketcap.com or whatever and you scroll
down the list and all you see are american flags. Like you just scroll down the list.
It's like,
yeah,
you have Saudi.
Do you salute for a little while going down that?
I mean,
yeah,
I love,
I love this country.
So yeah,
of course that makes me proud,
but like,
he actually says the pledge of allegiance.
Yeah.
I think it while I scroll the list.
Yeah,
exactly.
but you have like 10 cent and you have a TSMC and Saudi Aramco.
Right.
But like everything else on that list is american
right you have sap and germany like you have some juggernauts samsung and south korea etc etc
but the vast majority of the companies on the list are american and we didn't need to take a stake in
any of them for that to happen you know the u, yeah, we're government contracts provided along the way where tax incentives provided along the way where, you know, did they maybe, you know, make some politicians happy with with campaign donations along the way?
Yeah, all that stuff happens. And you can feel whatever, however way you want about it. No one's like a purely capitalist economy on planet Earth.
So, you know, that doesn't exist.
But for all intents and purposes, like we have all the biggest companies in the world
because of some unique blend of capitalist spirit, American ingenuity, whatever.
You could list 100 factors for why you think that's the case, right?
I mean, we don't have some abnormally large portion of the world's population.
We have 5% of the world's population, yet we have 45 out of 50 of the world's biggest
companies.
That's not a coincidence.
It's not some random occurrence.
There's a reason why America has been able to achieve that.
And I don't think it's from the united states
government taking stakes in our companies like if you can't compete you can't compete and you're
not going to make that top 50 list and that's okay you know and like we're talking about this
yesterday too taiwan semiconductor is for all intents and purposes an american company 70 percent
of their revenue comes from america all their biggest design and production partners
are american apple nvidia tesla etc like so what just because their name is taiwan semiconductor
that we now feel the need to be compelled to take a stake in intel because intel flies an american
flag and was founded in this country like is that the barometer we're going to use for excellence
and product and in technology i think that's a that the barometer we're going to use for excellence in product and in technology?
I think that's a bad barometer to say,
hey, just because you were founded in this country,
we're going to do everything we can
to make sure you're competitive
or to force your competitiveness.
Like the idea that we even floated to Taiwan Semiconductor,
hey, you need to take a 49% stake in Intel,
which they obviously said no to.
Why do you think we said that?
We said that because we were hoping that TSMC would be able to train Intel employees to be, you know, excellent.
And it's like, the fact that we need to do that, like, just let TSM do it.
Are you guys still there?
Yes.
Yeah, right.
That felt like a cutoff, but I think that was just the end of the sentence.
Yeah.
The one thing about the... Yeah, go, Kevin.
Sorry.
Okay.
Yeah.
The one thing about rare earths that you got to be mindful of, too, when you're actually
processing it is, which I think would be a little bit difficult here in the United States is
getting the community's approval to have you know to have those operations within your town
right or within your county or even within your state you know the reason why China does it
because they don't really care about like the environmental impacts but it's messy it's messy
to to actually process a lot of those rare earths. So, you know, I kind of go
back and think about fracking. You know, fracking, we kind of think about it's a, you know, revolutionary
technology or process in order to extract oil and natural gas and other, you know, resources and
things of that nature. But, you know, if you kind of look at it, like I'm in Colorado, we got some
fracking operations up in the north.
You can go to Oklahoma.
A lot of these small towns just don't want that in their neighborhood, one, because,
I mean, there is a direct correlation between fracking operations and earthquakes.
But there's also this fear for those that own farmland or those that have cattle ranches
that the fracking operations could also you
know leak into the water system i'm surprised about this hasn't been included in more of the
trade deals where we we don't touch our beautiful american land and we do the mining in those other
countries i'm surprised that hasn't been a part of a lot of these they don't want to do it either
they don't want to do it either dude why don't want to do it either, dude.
Why do you think I go back?
Australia has probably the most resources when it comes to rare earths in any country in the world.
Right.
Why don't you think that they're not processing it there?
Because it's a crappy process.
The waste is really bad.
It completely destroys landscapes.
Like there's no,
even like a landfill here in the United States, I'll go off of this rant here in a second.
And a landfill in the United States, obviously there's a lot of garbage there, but at some point
we are able to kind of, you know, we put some gas operations there, blow off the methane,
flame off the, flare off the methane. And then eventually they'll throw dirt and grass over it.
Right. Eventually. I don't know if people know that, but eventually that's what they do.
When you do this, these operations, you strip mine these things, especially rare earths.
There's no you're just kind of destroying the land and it's done.
You know, and then you have to find a place to put the waste.
So that's a that's why this hasn't really been coming up. I mean, it's because there's no other country outside of China that's willing to say, you know and then you have to find a place to put the way so that's a that's why this hasn't really been like coming up I mean it's because there's no other
country outside of China that's willing to say you know or you're looking in
African countries that's willing to say hey yeah we'll do this
Oh Ackman's out a backman bought Amazon a billion dollars of Amazon stock talk
this guy love them He added a lot
to his Google position as well.
Sold out of Union Pacific.
By the way, Bill Gates bought
a lot more
Berkshire Hathaway.
I'm going to Ragman's right now.
Sorry for cutting you off, Kevin. Honestly, it's one of these days where it's just working at random news.
Yeah, I'm going to let you do your thing, man.
I'll let you do your thing. I'm just staring
at UNH and thinking about what could have been.
Oh, no.
Yeah, same here. I'm thinking about the boats,
thinking about the honeys.
Did you see?
It looked like the reported price on that
was 311 by Berkshire.
So we're not even back to where
that average cost basis is.
They don't do reports.
They don't report prices.
So what is that price when it says 311?
Reported price?
That's the that's the
end of the quarter so what it was at the end of q2 probably would be my guess but
yeah they don't disclose what price they bother that
and by sold you and h calls so i could scout features dude that's how bad on a day like today
yeah yeah yeah yeah yeah i'm a d-gen so it is what it is i saw what happened this morning i said no
this is a box day.
Yeah, but maybe we have a breakout tomorrow.
It seems like we're consolidating for a break.
So you think it's going to be a lot more of the names that have been leading? So there was yesterday, all the forgotten names running.
Today, it was a lot of the bigger names were doing good.
What do you think that we're part of this market and everything? That's good. Once again, you're going to have these
cycles even on an intraday basis. I think that's a good thing. Tomorrow, given these 13F filings,
you could actually have the broadening out happening again um unh was one of those beneficiaries
that has been running good for from the lows talked about lily earlier that's another name
that has been doing pretty decent uh lockheed martin i sold off but kind of a tad bit into the
close union pacific another one that was lagging hit 220 219 so a little bit of a bid into the close here. So we'll see. You know, what I did like to see, I mean, like options flow on Amazon today, which is absolutely ridiculous.
And so that was like strong out the gate.
I really didn't care what was going on on the headlines.
So that was actually a very interesting play.
I think Apple is going to be the interesting one for me over the next couple of days, though.
See how this resolves itself.
Is there tomorrow, monthly OPEX? Is there any
major things that you're watching for that? Do you think it's a non-event?
I mean, it always can be an event.
This isn't the biggest one for me. September, I think, will be can be an event. I don't – this isn't, like, the biggest one for me.
September, I think, will be a pretty big event.
I think September – these September op-backs, I think,
will create a sell-off event, not an aggressive one,
but probably the day after, two days after,
probably would see a pretty decent sell-off after that
as we reposition into the fourth quarter here.
But tomorrow, you're looking at 6,500 to the upside.
Those are freshly new positions on the sold calls over the last week or so.
I mean, we've been kind of, you know, stair-stepping to the upside here.
So it hasn't been something that's been, like, lingering for too, too long
that I have on my radar.
And then to the downside, I mean, hopefully we don't go that route,
but if you look at the downside,
you're looking at 62 to 6,100.
So we would have to have like
something crazy happening tomorrow
to really kind of, you know,
break that level.
Anything's possible,
but not too much.
Now, Tuesday, I'm looking for vol.
So because VIX expiration. Yeah, well, I'm looking for ball. So, cause VIX expiration.
Yeah.
Well, VIX expiration is next week.
It's not, it wasn't this week.
VIX expiration is next week.
Monday.
Well, Wednesday.
Well, no, VIX expiration is Wednesday.
Uh, VIX options stopped trading Tuesday at the close.
So increasing VIX options being traded.
Probably keep, should actually elevate VIX a little bit,
which I hope that actually happens.
So I think actually that's probably what I'm looking forward to most
is going to be that Tuesday slash Wednesday rather than tomorrow,
if anything.
We need VIX back up to 17,
because I'm starting to get sick of these 20-point,
25-point range days
in Illinois.
It was interesting seeing the broadening out
that we were talking about there. I mentioned this a little bit
earlier, but we saw, obviously,
your small caps and
your equal weight really
taking over yesterday.
It started Tuesday, obviously, with the CPI
print, and then it's like everybody
pumped the brakes on that this morning,
and then kind of tailored off back to normal by the middle of the day is what
I noticed.
Yeah. Well, PPI kind of dampened that trade too. Right.
You know, if you're kind of, you're, you're looking at, I mean,
you know, Russell down 1.3%, but if you kind of look at that close today,
it wasn't that bad of a close compared to where it was.
I mean, Russell Futures was trading down to 28 or 2284, right?
And it kind of recovered about, what, 20 points or so.
But you bring in that hot PPI print, you have the questioning of what's the Fed going to do.
It seems like maybe yesterday was a little bit more of a 50 basis points or not even say that let's say 75
basis points by the end of the year was probably also kind of being priced in and that narrative
kind of hitting and then today kind of put a little bit of cold water on that when you're
looking at PPI so you know PPI to CPI to PCE is a little bit different. I mean, some of the components in PPI are going to be in PCE, but it's not like a given
that it's automatically going to be reflected in the CPI.
In fact, if you look at rolling or cross correlations between PPI and CPI, there's about a one
and a half to two month lag between PPI and CPI.
And that one and a half to two month lag also correlates
to around a 70 to 71% correlation
that what happens in PPI is gonna happen in CPI.
So the reason why I bring that up is
if it is gonna stick,
we probably have one more CPI print
until you actually start seeing the effects
of the stuff in PPI coming into CPI, right? So that gives you like two months.
And then you also then have that kind of low-ish probability
that it actually is reflected in consumer prices.
So one of the issues that we saw today,
one of the things that was a major outlier was diesel and fuel oil or heating oil, right?
Where I believe that was like 14% increase
or 10% increase some crazy month over month.
But I mean, that's kind of residual effect
of what we saw from the lows on the futures
from about a month and a half to two months ago
that I was on space to say,
we have not even seen that truly being reflected in CPI,
but now you're seeing it in PPI.
So like, is that gonna be lagging over into CPI over the next month or two months?
That could be the case, right?
With PPI too, so we can just clarify, investment management fees was like ripping higher,
but that is actually kind of normal as markets actually melt up.
markets actually melt up. So I wouldn't be too concerned about that. That actually has been a
So I wouldn't be too concerned about that.
trend for the last year or so. It continues to re-rate higher. But if you're looking at machinery,
that was obviously a concern, right? Large machinery, seeing prices increase on the
producer level is something to kind of be mindful of, at least for now. And then the last thing,
you guys can check this out. I posted this earlier.
When you're looking at unprocessed goods on the intermediate side,
so goods that still need to be processed become final goods that producers sell,
increase by 2% on a month-over-month basis, that is your concern, right?
That's the largest jump I've seen easily over a year.
But that becomes become your concern
because then that starts to trickle down. If you start seeing unprocessed goods, price is going up,
the final goods should be going up as well, unless those manufacturers are eating that cost.
And if they're eating that cost, then we will see it in earnings. If they're not eating that cost,
they're going to pass it on to the consumers. There's no way that you have tariffs and nothing
happens, right? I think that's kind of the narrative that's been thrown out there. Like, oh, we have tariffs and
there's no inflation. It's like somebody is going to eat the cost. Either it's going to be coming
out of earnings and margins, right? Which we saw today, margins are expanding in the PPI metric.
It's going to either reflect in prices, it's going to be reflected in the exporter, right?
Or somewhere in the chain, it just doesn't go away. Is it going to be a one-time? Probably is
going to be a one-time impact, but it just won't go away. We still will see it some way, shape,
or form. It hasn't shown up in earnings yet as far as margins. It hasn't really trickled down
to the consumer aggressively yet. Even if you look at the Cleveland Fed, they did re-rate their inflation expectations for CPI for next month higher. So keep your eye out on that.
But we haven't seen an aggressive re-rating to the upside for consumers yet. So once again,
we're still like in limbo, but you know, tariffs will be reflected in the market one way, shape,
or form. I don't know where it's going to show up, but it's going to show up somewhere.
And it could show up in all of those places, right?
So long rant, but PPI was very interesting today.
Very volatile print, though.
You got to put that asterisk there.
CPI or PPI last month was flat.
And everybody's cheerleading it, right?
Today it's hot.
Next month it could contract.
That's just how volatile that number
is. It's not a real trend that you really notice for PPI, in my opinion. Not yet. It's really
disjointed. By the way, I did pin up in the nest above the thread that I'm putting out with all
these 13F filings.
So everything we said there, if you want to see the actual portfolios, they're pretty much all in there or going to be in there at some point.
So Ackman, Buffett's portfolio, Gates, all these updates, you can go in and check that out.
You should give that post a like.
It's normally a pretty solid one.
But yeah, that is definitely one of those. of those like every person that likes it you're
gonna buy a share of unh or something i don't got that i don't got the facilities for that big man
i think mon did have had his head i don't know i thought he saw yeah mon he did he did my bad
my bad if i was talking too much. Yeah, shut up.
No, okay, we always appreciate you talking.
I haven't seen for some reason, I haven't seen David Tepper's in here just yet,
which I know we were talking about it earlier.
But yeah, what is up, Monativ?
How are you doing?
Hey, good afternoon, guys.
Lots of interesting things going on.
Yeah, what's on your radar what's catching your eyes well let's yeah I don't want to have to revisit Intel unless you guys want to
hear back let's go bullish let's go let's hear it I. Let's go. Let's hear it. I'm good. So look, to be honest, I think this is one step better than forcing a sale of Intel to somebody else, because we are talking about depressed asset prices here, right?
Until 18 is stabilized and the yields are, you know, high 50s or above consistently, we're not going to get major customers
signing up volume production.
They're all going to test it
just because they need an option besides TSM.
So they will test it,
but they won't sign on for volume production.
And we're not there yet.
It's not been consistent.
According to most industry watchers
that I talk to, it is close.
It's not there yet.
So we could be there by the end of the year.
So to have a forced sale at this point based on,
let's just roughly say the market price of Intel stock would have been,
you know, worse than what we are seeing, you know,
what's possibly happening with, you know, a stock sale to, or, you know,
stake sale to the US government, right?
So in that sense, it's the second worst option that could have happened,
not the very worst option.
The problem I have is this.
Okay, now that you've, let's assume that this is true and it goes forward, it's not going to solve anything.
It's going to provide, you know, a more certain access to capital possibly, but nothing more than that.
So what do you do with customers?
How do you get the customers?
That's been the problem in the first
place. Do you now force other American companies to use Intel 18A, whether they like it or not,
whether they're ready or not? That could be a big disaster waiting to happen. I mean,
the yield could not only destroy margins, it could destroy any of their ability to take on orders from
customers or deliver it on time or in quality.
So we've got a lot of problems here that doesn't get solved by just the US government taking
a stake. Yeah, it maybe puts a floor on the risk of liquidation, but besides that, it really doesn't solve any of the existing problems.
And I don't think Intel has that great a difficulty.
I mean, there is a cost to it, obviously, but Intel is not finding it impossible to raise capital. So I don't know what this solves.
This is, like I said, the second worst thing that could have happened to them, not the very worst, right?
Telling them to sell half of their company to TSM at this time would have probably been worse.
So that's how I see it anyway.
So that's how I see it anyway.
I think it's still a work in progress in terms of getting that yield to a point where it's
stable and where customers are willing to commit.
And we shall see where that happens.
Monitim, go ahead.
Yeah, no, I want to throw something to you because I'm kind of looking and thinking about
scenarios here.
And this one may seem far-fetched for some
but for others maybe not i want to get your thoughts on this what are your thoughts about
maybe the president strong-arming the customers to force them to do to do work with and that's
exactly my point that's going to be a disaster across the industry. You're just going to have a fall off in data center construction cadence
because you're not going to achieve what TSM is able to guarantee today.
That's been the problem all along is the inability to have yields
have yields at the level of forget a TSM at the level of a Samsung.
at the level of, forget a TSM, at the level of a Samsung.
So until you have that, if you think back, right, the problem for Nvidia is not customers.
The problem is capacity.
They're selling out.
AMD is able to capture, you know, a larger percentage of revenue because Nvidia is selling out potentially other things, but I'm just taking the simplest of the cases, right?
So it's not the demand, it's the supply that's the problem.
And you go and force some of that supply to be moved through Intel 18A,
you're not gonna get the same output.
First of all, you're not even going to get it started
for a while.
And then when it, let's say, comes to some stability,
let's say the end of the year,
you're gonna have a higher cost,
you're gonna have a lower yield,
you potentially have quality problems with
suddenly scaling to the levels these guys are talking about it's not if if it was simple intel
would have solved it long ago it's not that simple that's the problem so intel's own whatever the
latest is panther lake or whatever it is is not even in in in in full capacity
manufacturer in 18a so intel's own products which they decide where to put because of the demand
they have they don't want to put it through through 18a yet so so if if that that's the
biggest risk i see to this is you're just going to make the whole industry
involved in this mess.
And it could take longer to sort out
than if you just waited a little bit longer
and let this settle down.
I mean, you've given them money.
The best thing you can do is give them time.
At this point, if they do anything more than that we've got bigger problems
across the industry yeah we do have oh i'm excited for this chat i think we're going to be talking a
little bitcoin gold coming up here uh in little bit. Is Gov up here?
He's not buying the Wolf account, is he?
I changed the title. I couldn't unmute.
Gov's not here yet. He's finished.
He'll be here in two minutes.
Gotcha, gotcha. Okay.
Well, interesting stuff with bitcoin doing 118
what was it it moved lower off the ppi this morning interesting what a gold do today
interesting all right we can move on i'll throw it over to you
yeah just just one other thing on on on unh um I have a long position that could go profitable in a month or so.
It's a little over 300, so it could go profitable soon enough.
But I've been selling puts from 210, then I rolled it to 220,
then I rolled it to 230, 240, 250.
So all of those are going to go
to zero, right? These are short puts.
So all of those are going
to zero, and my 280 calls will go
in the money tomorrow, so that's a good thing.
Good work,
good work.
I'm pissed about this move today,
but I've been playing it
literally on the whole way up.
I'm just bad that
four dollar calls that are about to print these four dollars yeah i i i didn't play this i didn't
play this i it was not even on my wildest dream that this was going to be a buffett stock so
so yeah it's not that it's just that it's cheap enough to play that's it nothing more than that
that it's just that it's cheap enough to play that's it nothing more than that
everybody added to it right boffet burry tapper pretty crazy the burry ad was what evan half
million shares uh i i'd have to go back and look it's a lot going on but i will say he had some
calls with it this might have been what you were seeing i listen burry's a trader his portfolio was actually a lot smaller than it normally has been so i uh yeah the buffett one was kind of
interesting though yeah you have to assume almost certainly that buffett bought more since june 30th
because there have been volume peak days that could be you know um i have to go back and see uh you know yeah big lots see what
they got traded the the block trades but uh but yeah i'm pretty certain that he bought a lot more
after that too so yeah i know we uh we got a conversation here that uh we're gonna roll into
in a second but it's really interesting stuff for me as well i've been kind of pounding the table on
you know some of the double leverage stuff around unH. So it's been heavily on my radar.
David, before we get into this next conversation, which is also pertinent timing,
I kind of wish this had happened yesterday when Bitcoin hit new all-time highs, but
we're having it today. Any thoughts on the UNH side of things before we get into it?
I'm curious, how long do we call it Buffett's portfolio?
At some point, he's going to, you know, obviously...
Greg's.
Yeah, Greg's portfolio is a nice ring to it,
you know what I'm saying?
Yeah, exactly.
I mean, honestly, it's the greatest thing
that could have happened to the stock.
I think it's going to, you know,
as you move bid position for skyrocket this thing,
I think there's just a lot of trust in a handful of names, you move big position for skyrocket this thing.
I think there's just a lot of trust in a handful of names, regardless of their tolerance, not sometimes,
supporting these stocks.
And I assume a lot of the institutional world
will also play piggyback to that.
And honestly, I think that's the most amazing thing
about this rally we've seen, especially this year.
Everyone's waiting for retail to be a sucker,
but retail has just dominated this rally,
and this stock is just another example of that.
It's retail and maybe some of the really premier institutions,
but it's everyone else,
the more traditional allocators in between that
have just been stuck sitting on the sidelines.
Do you have headphones or something
it's a little it's like like it sounds like you're using your your phone mic there but
you're a little aware like yeah keep it close or mics would be good
yeah the sound wasn't perfect i agree with him
um but yeah let's go ahead and get into uh the thick of this as we start going so wanted to have
a conversation here really off the back of bitcoin hitting all-time highs yesterday and gold you know
not too far off from it i think a lot of people are looking at gold in the positioning uh at the
moment you know it's still up 25 on the year but it's really kind of stalled out since April,
after we came out of that April rally.
April 21st, it was trading at 315.
Now it's trading at 307 here today.
Bitcoin's kind of continued the rally to the gold side.
We've been doing shows, spaces, had David Jekansky from Quantify on for many a times.
I've been working with him for, gosh, maybe a year now.
And they've got the BTGgd etf and we put
that ticker tagged up in the top of the space and this is uh one of the best performing etfs on the
year um it's up 42 and a half percent you know since they launched this thing it's up 91 and a
half percent and it's what's interesting is if you look at bitcoin and gold and you basically
look at them individually this has outperformed each one of them by creating essentially where you put $1 into this,
it gives you $1 exposure to Bitcoin,
$1 exposure to gold, right?
They're stacked using leverage and it rebalances daily.
So, you know, in this case,
when Bitcoin has been continuing to run,
it's taking some of those gains
and it's allocating them to gold.
And the idea is if you have a pullback in Bitcoin, right?
Maybe you're gonna see that move up in gold
and you'll have kind of that differentiation in the two areas. Obviously, Bitcoin has continued
to carry the load here. So you can see even though gold hasn't moved at all, really since April,
if you go back to where I was just talking about, you know, April 17, BTGD was only up
50%. Now it's up 91%. Right? So it's just continued to pop to the upside. And so it's
been an interesting one for me. So wanted to come on, I guess, pretty good timing with there being the all time high on
Bitcoin yesterday. Evan, you still holding all your Bitcoin? Yep. Bitcoin, Ethereum, all that
stuff. I have not sold any of my crypto that wasn't like a meme coin. There you go. How many
meme coins did you have? I'm a Dogecoin uh i'm a dogecoin like
two thousand percent or something so respect my gains thank you very much
yeah i respect them he's a doge respecter um but yeah figured we start chatting hey actually
amp i was gonna ask you amp i feel like you always say that bitcoin doesn't look good
but we hit all-time highs yesterday do you you think that that's helpful? Where's your thoughts on it? I don't always say it doesn't look good. It didn't
look good. Actually, me and Evan were on a stream a couple Sundays ago, and it came right off the
50-day in a backtest, and I did say it actually looked good off of that spot. And here we are,
new all-time highs. Today is a little bit concerning. Bitcoin did this a little bit before where it
goes and makes the new all-time high and then just rugs like crazy and then goes back into
consolidation mode. So that'll be interesting to keep an eye on. I think part of it probably
has to do also with the PPI print this morning. Maybe people were getting a little exuberant with
the rate cut expectations by the end of the year.
But either way, I mean, there's two things that I've continued to think with this is as long as risk is on in the market, which to me it obviously is, and as long as the
Fed is continuing to print money, which we just saw $37 trillion hit the debt clock the
other day.
So I think you have two massive tailwinds that are just going to stay underneath this the gold one is interesting too this gold chart has it's been consolidating for
so long it's sitting right in the midpoint it actually rejected a little bit today but i look
at gold futures and this 3400 level it's just a magnet every time we get away from it either
direction it just comes right back to it but we know gold loves to consolidate before making the next big move out yeah do we have david back on stage yeah can
you guys hear me better now yeah you sound a lot better much better yeah amazing that's perfect
david um i i like this opportunity right here as well so like i've been talking about you know
bitcoin continuing to push all-time highs through yesterday. Gold has been basically just building
a base here for three months. It actually looks really good to me. The theory here and what we
put as a title of this base is printing money, right? And they're not stopping. They're just
going to continue printing money. The deficit is actually insane. I made some tweets over the last
couple of days. I'd point people to look at from the Wolf Financial account, where I really
emphasized what's happening here at the moment. And for those that are not really taking it in,
we are getting absolutely destroyed by the government in terms of currency at the moment.
So the U.S. government right now is adding $1 trillion to the national debt every 90 days.
For perspective, it took 200 years for the government to add the first $1 trillion.
Now it's every 90 days, right?
And so that is basically saying $4 trillion a year after it took 200 to get to the first trillion uh 200 years and
so if you kind of have ever been looking around going hey when's our deck going to go parabolic
uh yeah it's happening right now and it's just going to continue to go in this direction there's
no sign of a slowdown right they raised the debt ceiling um no reason to think it's going to stop
and that's what's going to continue to propel both gold and Bitcoin, in my opinion, the
perfect hedges for it, to the upside.
And this is an opportunity to basically hedge your bets with them in my eyes, but also have
that daily rebalancing.
So David, I'll actually turn it over to you.
Maybe you could talk me through where you look at Bitcoin right now as it continues
to grow.
It's the fifth largest asset in the world, I believe.
Gold at one and then a few publicly traded companies.
It passed, I think it was Amazon the other day in market cap.
Now it's probably back under it after today's move, but as of yesterday.
And then gold in tandem with that, which grows at 2% supply each year, but still is pretty
scarce.
So curious to get your thoughts.
Yeah, what a fantastic summary from the entire crowd.
Thank you so much for having me on.
Honestly, I think this is a healthy pullback.
If you recall that Friday, was it last Friday or the Friday before,
we had a big volatility day in equity markets on the downside.
We were just so far stretched beyond short-term 50-day moving averages, etc.
I feel like this is just kind of a healthy pullback in Bitcoin.
I think there's value in many cryptos, I think Bitcoin is a very different thing
than the rest of the crypto market. And that's why we stacked both Bitcoin and gold on top of
each other, because when it's all said and done, we do think that Bitcoin and gold are going to be
considered more similar assets than the rest of the crypto market is to bitcoin but honestly i think this is a little bit of a healthy pullback
and i actually think since the uh stable coin act you've really seen for the first time in what like
18 to 24 months if you go look at a chart of uh eth bitcoin uh like bitcoin in eth uh eth has
gotten gotten slaughtered uh so I think some of this,
especially when you see little rips in Bitcoin, is the traditional institutional world that
might have been early adopters to Bitcoin, but just Bitcoin because of the stable act,
the same concept that got them to Bitcoin as well. The institutional world is now using it.
I can talk endlessly why Ethereum might not have the same supply constraints as
something like Bitcoin, but it's going to be of value nonetheless because the government has
backed it and firms like JP Morgan are launching their own coins. So I think sometimes when you
see these big rips in Bitcoins, people are going to take an opportunity to diversify a little bit
to the rest of their portfolio. And I think that and just a healthy pullback is where we are, as you alluded to.
Everyone is so focused on is Bitcoin good or bad, but it's just not really, that's not
the story.
The story is the U.S. has been quite bad from a credit perspective for quite some time for
growing over the last 10 to 15 years.
And we've really let it get to a position where it's just absolutely terrible.
We did an attempt at fixing it with Doge, and that kind of fell apart.
And we're back to, as you alluded to, $4 trillion of deficit being added every single year.
And it's funny, AI stocks and Bitcoin are very correlated.
AI stocks going up are the only thing that, quite frankly, has an opportunity to save us from this debt spiral because we might have so much productivity that we actually outgrow and out inflate our debt situation, which candidly will still be a case that's very good for Bitcoin.
a case that's very good for Bitcoin. But if that doesn't work and we do have a recession on the
other end and we don't have this productivity boom, or at least not yet, and we have a recession
in the next 18 months, yeah, Bitcoin is tied to risk assets in some aspects and they'll have a
pullback. But the deficit levels and the amount of money that the Fed will be shooting into the
market at that point will take Bitcoin to the moon so far beyond stocks. And I think everyone,
at least who's in the Bitcoin community, sees that and knows that. So I view this just kind
of simply as a healthy pullback. It is nice in our pairing here, Bitcoin and gold and BTGD,
that when there are 15% or greater pullbacks in Bitcoin, gold responds really well. And that's
the beauty of having a stacked leveraged ETF versus traditional.
We do not have a disclaimer that we're just intended for daily use.
This is intended for long-term holds.
We market it as leverage for the long run because of the diversification that's baked into it.
And that's why we don't have that included in our perspectives.
Understood.
I want to hear from some others on the panel.
Stock talk, what's your thoughts here,
especially on the gold side of things too,
which hasn't really run?
Yeah, I think it's interesting today.
In fact, I think it's probably particularly relevant today
because of Basen's comments.
I don't know if anyone heard his comments this morning,
but he was sort of asked about it,
about gold and Bitcoin and what they plan to do with Bitcoin from the strategic reserve standpoint.
And it's funny because at first he made comments this morning and said, yeah, we're not going to acquire anymore.
We're just not going to sell the stuff that we seize and acquire elsewhere.
And, you know, we will look to potentially find a budget neutral way to acquire it.
But we don't have a plan yet.
And then he said gold will continue to be the reserve asset.
And he saw a little bit of a pump, like an hour long pump on gold off that.
And Bitcoin dipped a little bit off that.
And, you know, the markets in general were a little weaker today.
But I think it's interesting because having exposure to both in one vehicle does make it easier if there does become a moment where there's some divergence.
And, you know, I think traditionally people have kind of viewed both as like store of assets, even though Bitcoin's price is much more volatile.
So I think this gives you not only the potential volatility upside for Bitcoin, but then on the other side of it gives you the potential stability of gold.
So, yeah, I think it's interesting, especially in this environment where a lot of people are worried not only about the debt side of things, but some people are starting to get worried now again, especially after this morning's PPI data about the inflation side of things.
And then in the backdrop, you have government policy that doesn't seem to be slowing down
either.
So I think it's a unique sort of blend of factors right now that make both Bitcoin and
gold particularly interesting to people.
And I think getting it in one vehicle can be a way to sort of hedge the risk on either
side.
I don't think there's any enormous downside risk I can see for gold,
and especially in this environment.
I mean, our debt situation isn't coming to any sort of resolution anytime soon.
And when you look at, you know, the price of Bitcoin,
I mean, if you look at the long-term trend, it looks pretty bullish as well.
So I don't think people
want to fade either of those assets in this climate. And so there's a lot of people, at least
people that I know, that are looking for exposure to both or some sort of exposure to both, whether
they own physical gold in real life and own some Bitcoin or whatever. So this, I think, is a unique
way to get that. Yeah, the beauty of how we try to construct this is is gold doesn't have
to outperform bitcoin it just has to outperform the cost of financing which is under five percent
right and again the scarcity profile alone should allow it to do that over time um i think when you
look at gold there's really two main if not three environments that I think you can break it up into historical context.
There's before we went off the gold standard entirely.
And before then, gold was an asset that a lot of people will agree.
Okay, it held your value.
Like your house 100 years before that would be the same amount of gold as it is then, as would be your haircut or your suit or anything
in between. But there's been more research coming out as of late that post going off the gold
standard, it became a real return asset that actually has, again, real returns post-inflation,
which makes a ton of sense because that marks the time when we started becoming drunk on debt.
And it's just been like a spiral. So much of the growth that we've seen since the 70s has just been on the back of this
accumulating pile of debt that now is coming to fruition in 2025
my question is is, why Bitcoin?
Why is Bitcoin the one?
There's no CEO.
No one can control it.
Even equities.
If you look at the treasury companies, people are worried about what are their options they're going to put out, what preferreds, what stock benefits are people going to get.
There's no way to manipulate it and issue more shares.
It's just purely a scarcity vehicle.
Honestly, I've never really seen it as anything other than that ever since I
always described in the 2010s,
like all the quantitative using we were doing is like to end investors is like
this is basically a broken excel formula
right because we have this entity that is its own entity but is really just backed by the government
that has its own balance sheet that's buying our assets right um and it's a a failed excel loop
um and so yeah it's just the scarcity alone it's not that bitcoin's amazing it's just that like
there's not much else in this world that truly has scarcity that's portable and that can be used, especially just not in the U.S. and third world countries.
And really, that's what's happening in the U.S. here is we're being considered more and more by the rest of the world like a third world country.
And that's what we saw in April was U.S. stocks, U. bonds news dollar all moving the same direction treasuries the sb 500 and the
dollar all went down um and that perfectly explains why you need bitcoin what are your
thoughts around those treasury companies uh i mean for a lot of people especially in a traditional
portfolio if you're trying to get exposure to Bitcoin, for example, you're
looking at ETFs.
If you don't want to mess with crypto wallets and all these other things and just have it
in one spot as an investment, people look to ETFs and people look to things like MicroStrategy.
And I look at MicroStrategy and it doesn't look anything like the Bitcoin chart right
now.
And I believe I'm a big believer in Lynn Alden's stance on this actually, that there
is a premium that it should be rewarded to treasury companies based on obviously their
size, liquidity in the marketplace, and how they're managing their corporate balance sheet.
And this new preferred that strategy came out with is actually quite genius.
It's almost like turning it almost into like a bitcoin cash like vehicle and the
yields will likely fall from here as it gains further adoption but again it still has people
at control and they can still make business decisions that could you know not really
help the underlying shareholder so if you're gonna do something like that you know honestly
use it to harvest some volatility and some income more than anything um especially if it's m nav is low but i think you need to
don't like stop looking at that price and just look at a range of its m nav and uh you know only
consider that if it's like actually had a big drawdown in its m nav and guess what that would
have had you scale out of micro strategy related
investments when it's MNAV was at three and probably have you start dollar costs averaging
in now on the way down. Same thing as BTGD, rebalancing systematically between Bitcoin and
gold. Like if you have a portion of your Bitcoin related assets and Bitcoin versus a micro strategy,
like rebalance between those two, harvest that volatility.
And in that case,
you're basically trading on the MNAV.
So I think there is a value to it
where they end up ultimately shaking out.
Who knows?
It could be just like an MNAV of 1.25.
But I do think they're going to be protected
below one for sure.
And I do think at some point
you'll see some go below one in certain market environments when there's a pullback in Bitcoin.
But, you know, Sailor will probably be buying those companies at that time.
Yeah, one more question I actually have.
So on this BTGD, which is doing fantastic, it's pretty much doubled since it was first put on my radar last fall.
When I look at this, what does the rebalancing look like?
How often are you guys rebalancing?
You know, when I see, obviously, gold going sideways for several months,
Bitcoin just making the new all-time high,
how fast and how quickly are you guys adjusting to rebalance?
So we rebalance on a 5% drift.
It's not like a set schedule on that.
It can be, you know five to seven
percent we can sometimes do four percent uh but we try to let it run a little bit like you do want
to let it run and not over rebalance it uh but you do want to rebalance it to capture some of
the diversions uh between the two so we end up rebalancing typically about like two to three
times a week um sometimes we'll go a couple of days without trading. And that saves us obviously on
trading costs in the fund and just running the fund as efficiently as possible.
But if, for example, gold floated up a little bit versus the Bitcoin today and is a little bit of
over 100% at the end of the day, and that's okay. But that also means that if gold runs a little
bit more tomorrow, we'll have like 101% exposure instead of 100.
But like when you're rebalancing between two assets at a positive correlation, you want to let it run a little bit.
I lied. I have one more question.
The gold returns during Bitcoin drawdowns.
I was going through some of the information you guys have on the website there at Quantify Funds.
And that was actually very interesting.
Where did that jump onto your radar?
And I guess, how did you guys come up with the idea of like,
hey, we find a really interesting correlation here
that whenever Bitcoin draws down, gold is actually very,
what is it, 15% is what I'm seeing here.
That's really interesting.
Yeah, I mean, so finding a good stack in this world is the art and the science combined together.
Just to give some context to stacked 40AC products, 40AC being both ETFs and mutual funds.
The first stack product was PIMCO Stock Plus that I think launched in the 90s and is still around.
launched in the 90s and it's still around and it's 100 the ssp 500 and then 100 an active portfolio
in with an ag benchmark managed by uh pimco and you know they chose those two assets because they
had good correlation benefits between the two and it allows you to add an asset class without
subtracting the other just like this you can add for example gold onto your bitcoin position
without subtracting the two and that chart is just the benefit of two assets that actually hold their correlation benefits during volatile moments.
And that's what you want in a pair.
You want a pair that does have that correlation benefit, but also can be invested in a thematic theme.
I'm clearly biased, but there's a reason we came out with Bitcoin and
gold first, in that we think this is the ultimate pair. When we were first talking to you folks in
the fall, trying to say the message, this is a prepackaged currency debasement hedge, people
were like, oh, that's cute, but maybe. I don't really get it. And now they're like, yes,
I totally understand it. You're literally borrowing dollars to leverage bitcoin and gold exposure so the idea here is because the correlation benefits you just don't get as much
volatility as a traditional 2x etf on the downside and so like how can you reconstruct this on your
own you could buy a 2x gold and 2x bitcoin etf you're gonna have to rebalance it three four days
a week to match our rebalancing schedules. And honestly, that means like when Bitcoin is like roaring, you got to keep trimming it.
That doesn't mean you have less than 100% exposure.
You have still 100% exposure every single day.
We're just not going to let it asymmetrically run to the upside.
So it's almost like having leveraged ETFs where we do the rebalancing for you.
And one thing that you always stress, and you kind of hit on this, but like leverage
for the long term, right? Because people have that conception around, hey, if I have leverage,
I'm going to have issues holding this for long term. Can you talk to that a little bit more?
Yeah, because there's nothing for a leverage ETF to rebalance within, like a lot of people at this point who use leveraged ETFs fully understand that there can be some erosion.
And it's very path dependent.
And it's not just like, hey, where was the stock or the underlying asset 12 months ago versus today?
It's the path it took to get there.
Now, you can get really close to your leverage perspective if you do those rebalancing, like almost daily rebalancing, which is just,
again, quite hard. You're selling it as it's going up and you're buying it as it's going down.
So when Bitcoin had its really big drawdown, you have to buy it during that period. And so
because we have this structural diversified leverage built in, we do not have
any disclaimer that we're intended just for daily use. This is perfect for long-term holds. This is
great for model portfolio for advisors. There's no compliance issue with holding it overnight.
And so we trademarked the phrase leverage for the long run here and um you know
again this is a just traditional market model portfolio position that you can put in your
allocation and you don't have to sit there and watch it every single day because we have much
less erosion than traditional lever gts much less path dependency than you'll see in a traditional
lever gtf because we're doing the rebalancing for you so it's almost like
an easier way to enter into the world of leverage we all know you need some if you're a growth or
more aggressive portfolio uh allocator you need some form of leverage in your portfolio if you're
gonna have over 70 in equities like i'm not saying you should have over 100 in equities if you do
like that's fine.
But if you are going to take your first foray into using leverage in your portfolio, let that be a diversifier for you.
Even consider things like treasuries and Bitcoin and gold.
And this is just a good tool to give you that structural leverage in your portfolio that you don't have to watch every single day and worry about having to rebalance every single day
like you do with traditional leverage ETFs.
I think many allocators use these vehicles not to have to stock it every single day.
Obviously, this audience, you guys are much more intraday focused on the trading side.
But even within that, this is still a fantastic trading vehicle heading into the Fed announcement
or really anything that Donald Trump is going to say, because you have no idea what that's going to do to our economy.
Right.
You never know.
No, that's totally fair.
OK, really interesting pieces.
Any thoughts kind of looking ahead to like what the next big catalyst could be for one of these areas?
For me, it was, you know, when they passed that freaking bill, I was like, all right, Bitcoin's going to skyrocket from here.
And I'm just curious, like, what do you think could happen next?
What would happen if we do see a rate cut?
I mean, it depends the reason we're seeing the rate cut.
But in general, I think a lot of people think a rate cut will do more inflation down the road.
And I think the statements from the you know strategic
reserve Bitcoin caused a lot of the volatility as you guys alluded to earlier
today I think today is just kind of a blip in an upward trend on Bitcoin just
in the last couple months firms like even JP more actually no even I think
was last week JP Morgan just allowed their advisors to allocate to Bitcoin ETFs on discretion.
These pieces of news just kind of slip under the radar.
But that means that all of these financial advisors have been doing questions about Bitcoin from their client base for the last seven years.
And they have had to give them a very blanket statement.
Like, I'm sorry, I can't give you any opinion on Bitcoin whatsoever, one way or the other. And they're literally like a robot on that side. Now they're
allowed to allocate to it, right? And that's happening in more and more firms that just
happened to LPL. I think that might be happening to Morgan Stanley right now. And so this is going
to change the supply demand even further in the short run. Because again,
one point there's 0.86% is the Bitcoin mining rate.
There's 86 basis points of new supply.
You've got the ETFs gobbling up.
You have the treasury companies gobbling it up.
And now you have the financial advisors just starting to step in.
So I think you're just going to continue to see this steady bid in Bitcoin.
Even today, it took a big pullback and then it started fighting back a little bit.
It's not like it was like an endless spiral down that you anticipate would kind of continue day after day.
It wasn't like one of those markets days we see in the equity markets where it just like pukes into the clothes and you're expecting it to just vomit the next day as well.
Understood.
I mean, that's pretty good insight.
Stock talk, Kevin, Ryan, you guys got any more questions
before we move into any wrap-up?
Yeah, my question around the ETF,
you talked a little bit about like the 5% kind of the rebalancing.
What's like the just general,
what's the benefits of rebalancing this
versus holding both the
assets separately yeah i mean it's it's kind of true for any assets uh that have like both have
positive expected return and correlation benefits you can certainly increase the risk adjusted
return by rebalancing it but you can almost always in unison with that increase
the top line return between the two and all that means is like you know no asset moves in the
straight line if you have two assets that are moving somewhat independently of each other
and like we've seen right look we launched three weeks before the election and for the first three
months no one cared about gold.
Gold was turning sideways, downwards, and Bitcoin was just on a roar.
And then from that moment, Bitcoin fell from 108 all the way down to sub 80.
And gold was just like, could do no wrong.
And it was just pumping along, going higher and higher.
So you get a lot of value.
It's almost like day trading
where you're trading the swings and we're trading the swings between two uncorrelated assets
which has allowed us to outperform just a buy and hold of both yeah i like btgd uh full
transparency i'm up a good amount on my uh as well. So, you know, that makes me enjoy it even more.
But I definitely, you know, encourage people to go check it out.
And the AUM has been really moving lately from what I've seen.
Yeah, I'm up about 60% on my position.
And the AUM, I saw that you moved up to almost 60 million here.
So it seems like it's really picking up, you know?
Yeah, I think people, look, it's really tough to invest in a strategy structure that you
haven't heard of before.
But again, stacking different investments in ETFs has been around for about five years.
Wisdom Tree is doing it.
Newfound is doing it.
Someone just filed for a stacked oil and bitcoin
etf yesterday um pimco has been doing this for decades this is a really good way to access
oh this is a really good way to leverage add a little bit of leverage to your portfolio at an
under five percent margin rate right so you have consider, do you want to use structural leverage ETFs for a little
bit of margin or do you want to get margin yourself and your portfolio? And by doing it this way,
you will never get a margin call. Our fund will never get a margin call because we're investing
in futures. So it's structured to be a safe way to have margin that you don't have to rebalance
all the time. Thank you guys all guys all by the way for having me
on if you could please give us a follow quantified funds uh as as you guys alluded to we have an
amazing paper called the case for bitcoin gold that shows the risk return characteristics of
bitcoin versus bitcoin and gold versus normal bitcoin normal gold 2x bitcoin 2x gold some of
the favorites out there mstySTY, if anyone knows what
a Sharpe ratio is, we have a very clean Sharpe ratio versus all of those competitors. And again,
if you want to mathematically know why stack and rebalance these two, go look at that Sharpe ratio.
And you can see even with our 92% return, we've been as efficient as possible with about a 1.75
Sharpe, higher than Bitcoin, higher than gold with about a 1.75 sharp higher than
Bitcoin, higher than gold, higher than two times
Bitcoin, higher than two times gold, higher than
MSGY and
lots of other ways that people are
trying to hedge against currency debasement.
So thank you all for your time
and always a pleasure and I love your
show. Thank you. Is that the
investment outline or where is that one?
That's the case for Bitcoin and gold. Yeah. If you go to quantifyfunds.com, make
sure you follow that quantify funds account that's up here on stage. But if you go down,
go to BTGD with a ticker, we're talking about the last half hour or so, and there's a few
spots there. Evan's finding it right now. Case for Bitcoin and gold. That's what I was actually
looking at while ago when I was asking him about that.
Gold returns during Bitcoin drawdowns.
Do you find it, Evan?
Yeah, I know. I'm looking now. I'm looking now.
I'm not surprised by what I'm seeing.
The Sharpe ratio is really cool to see in context because it really mathematically shows how little volatility we've had in our path to this 90% plus return profile.
A good way to look at it is our annualized volatility is a 52.
Ibit is 48.
We have 4% higher volatility than just IBIT alone. But GLD has a standard deviation
profile of 18. We're not adding the volatility of 48 plus 18. We're adding the volatility of 48 plus
4. And that's where the diversification comes in. And that's where that downside chart comes into
play. We just don't experience as much volatility in the downside. And I bet it's actually one of your holdings,
correct? Yeah, we all have under 10% in Bitcoin and gold related ETFs to allow us to trade
efficiently and cost effectively between the two. To avoid breaking our RIC status and having that
income, we can't ever go above 10%. But also, like, we're happy to use the futures because the futures, especially in the last couple of years,
always in gold, but in the last couple of years in Bitcoin, even during extreme volatile moments,
I've tracked Bitcoin almost perfectly, the first month futures contract.
And it's, again, it's the cheapest form of leverage on this entire plan.
In general, why the leverage on this one, I want to ask you, why not just throw Bitcoin and gold
together and do it just kind of that? And my guess is that that type of product would also
probably be able to have a very, very low fee on it um yeah i mean i well i think that's
definitely we've definitely considered creating different versions of this with a lower volatility
profile um but i think it's there's something beautiful in literally like shorting the dollar
to increase your bet on bitcoin boldness um and again we think that growth investors need some
way to use leverage in their portfolio in a structural, intelligent way that actually diversifies the rest of their assets.
And so that was the concept. offering tools that you can use to allow you to very seamlessly without having to watch it all
the time create a portfolio just as complex as any institution or endowment or hedge fund would do
i appreciate you and you should definitely make sure you're uh
given that quantify funds account to follow give all the speakers up here a follow.
We appreciate everyone.
Thank you, guys.
Appreciate you.
Yes, sir.
Gav, anything else from you before we start wrapping up? Some thoughts here?
I don't know if Gav had to jump to a call, maybe.
Yep, I think he had to jump there.
Stock Talk, any parting wisdom from you today?
No, I think we chatted enough today.
But, yeah, we'll see you guys next week.
Same time, same place.
Should be an interesting end of the week, too.
A lot of stocks that sold off yesterday that bounced today
and stocks that bounced yesterday and sold off today.
Trying to find their footing into the end of the week.
A lot of weekly charts at some pretty big inflection points.
So we'll see how the week closes.
I think this is a pretty important week.
We don't have any big economic data next week.
So, yeah, the market could hum along here as long as we don't get any curveballs.
But we'll see.
All right.
We need some news on Lyft.
Someone, something, I don't know, but tomorrow's a good day for it.
Intel, I'll put another couple percentage points.
SockTark's called one of his analyst bodies and put out a little positive note on it.
Only was that easy.
That's a hard question, Mark.
All right. I appreciate you all thanks guys all right take care everyone um this whole thing was recorded as always you can go back and listen to the entire discussion and then of course
great bitcoin gold discussion here the last half hour or so and with that we're off we're off for
the rest of the weekend hope Hope everyone has a great weekend.
We'll see you guys on Monday afternoon. Thank you.
