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Good morning and welcome to the Lucky Lead. Today is Monday, January 29th folks.
It is another gray winter morning out here in Chicago.
We did see the sun briefly yesterday in a sign of hope, but alas, just briefly, those
who had hope for the Ethereum NFT market saw those hopes somewhat dashed by farmers over
Hope though, very alive on Solana and Bitcoin this week ahead of two major marquee drops
We're going to break it all down on today's show.
I see some friendly faces out there.
Thank you for joining us as a reminder for any new listeners out there.
We do run this show every weekday Monday to Friday at 10 a.m. Eastern covering all the
major news in crypto and NFTs.
I'm your host Tyler D and I'm joined today by some amazing co-hosts.
We've got Emily loves crypto, a web three security expert and co-founder of foolproof
labs, ghost content star over at lucky trader quiet whale deep in the streets rocking the
banger old pepin and then Logan Hitchcock.
He's our editor in chief over at lucky trader.
He's repping the lucky trader account.
He's been covering the space in depth for years and perhaps first now starting to recover
that the Australian open is finally over and perhaps he can get back to somewhat of a normal
Last night I was in bed by, you know, probably 11 p.m. Eastern time and basically slept through
So we are quickly approaching normal sleep schedule.
Tennis is back in Europe.
I'm really excited to just feel a little bit more alive each morning for you to get a little
bit more sleep each night.
I know you are a big tennis enthusiast.
So hopefully you find something else to spend those time that those hours on folks.
What are we talking about here today on the docket?
We're going to start with Project Overpass and the pudgy penguin dip farmer games just
all over and dominating Ethereum right now.
The wind token and Jupiter coming for Solana quantum cats mint predictions impact on Bitcoin
mochi minds reactions this breaking lazy lions takeover news and a whole lot more before
Ghost, any housekeeping for today?
Yeah, you know, as always, if you enjoyed this show, Tyler does a great rundown of the
NFT space every morning in the morning minute newsletter.
Get that pin to the top of the spaces.
Make sure you give that subscribe if you haven't already.
And folks, as another reminder, we've been keeping the show more casual as of late.
If you've got a hot take on any of the topics we're covering, feel free to shoot that hand
up request to join the conversation.
We'd love to have you up on stage.
Well, I'm going to start with a quick overview of the weekend and NFTs from the morning minute
newsletter, starting with those pudgies.
So we've been expecting the next major pudgy penguins announcement for months.
Now this weekend, we got it.
And by most accounts, it was a great update, but not the market reaction.
Some had hoped for, which might just simply reflect on the current state of the market
for even a tease right now.
So pudgies launch product overpass, Luca and the team, they've been touting product overpass
as their next major IP play for months now.
And we've got some new details.
So on Friday evening, the product overpass website went live in a soft launch.
The product is named overpass IP NFT licensing made easy.
This is how it works briefly.
So holders can submit their NFTs for licensing opportunities.
Collections can opt in to overpass to allow their holders to opt in for brand growth through
And then brands can post licensing opportunities for NFT collections and or specific NFTs.
And it looks like they are going to start with pudgy penguins, little pudgies and board
apes first up for the platform from a collection standpoint.
And then while broad sentiment reaction seemed overwhelmingly positive, and I believe dozens
of holders have already signed up on the site, the market did not like the news.
Pudgies sold off to 15.8 down 12% on the week and about 20% off local highs around 20.
Local pudgies also down 12% to 1.64 trading basically exactly in line in a 1 to 10 ratio
And then pudgy rocks fell 26% on the week to 0.62 as details on their use as a multiplier
on royalty contract was not enough to sustain their floor.
So that was the big news in pudgies.
I'm going to skip Solana and Bitcoin for now and then talk kind of broader ETH NFT market.
So I think the theme here is farmers giveth and farmers taketh away.
Farmer games once again, seem to be the primary story on ETH.
Sam, NFT stats friend of the show, he's been reporting on the NFT lending market with some
somewhat shocking details here.
So first outstanding loans are hitting highs across D gods, penguins and board apes.
He went further to explain how two farmers, just two wallets have done over 55% of the
Accounting for $230 million.
So clearly those two walls basically control the market, at least on a short term time
And then when they pull their loan offers, which is exactly what happened to pudgies
on Sunday, the floor can fall fast.
And I think the lesson here is if you are playing in this ecosystem, make sure you know
who you are playing with.
Moving on to some quick price action and seven day changes.
So we saw fudendus even at 69.4, punks were down 3% at 62, rangers down 20%, 25.5, board
apes down 1% at 25, pudgyping was down 13%, 15.8, gazers at 10, grifters were up 15%
at 9.2, squiggles though down 8% back at just 8 ETH, azukis down 6% at 6.8, wins of Yawanawa
6.4 down 17%, captain's at 4.5, mutants at 4.4, coda's at 3.55, degas at 2.9, milady's
at 2.5, and then proof at 1.94.
So basically if you look at the numbers, just about everything is red following a green
week, ponks back at 62, board apes pretty much steady at 25, pingu is one of the notable
losers down 13%, I think leading art or generative art NFTs continue to disappoint with squiggles
back at 8 and wins down, I mean it seems like ongoing chop with local pomps and local
dumps is what's on the agenda for the near term until a new catalyst comes in, I think
the question is what will be that next catalyst.
So I'm going to pause there, that's my intro, my overview, I want to hear from our panelists,
maybe we start with product overpass, Logie I'll throw it to you, were you following
this over the weekend, what were your initial reactions?
Your reactions are largely positive for the space overall, I think this is really cool,
of course we sort of knew what overpass was and how it was going to operate in some sense,
but based on my cursory glance and interaction it appears it's going to be even simpler than
I initially anticipated, and I was reading some of Lamello's comments regarding the
launch of this and kind of gave some of the back story, you can try to get that pinned,
but you just mentioned that they really wanted to try to solve this problem and do so in
a way that made it really easy for holders to find and participate in these licensing
opportunities and they got rid of all the intimidating complex stuff for you or me to
try to interact with one on our own would have been there and now it's kind of just
like three clicks to put your hat in the ring I should say for a potential licensing opportunity.
So that seems like a really big problem solve for something in this space we've talked about
for a long time, people taking advantage of the IP, it doesn't necessarily answer for how
successful those IP deals will be or if successful at all, that's of course always going to be out
there, but nonetheless I mean I thought this is really positive, the thing that didn't surprise
me personally at all was the price action as a result, it just feels like this is one of those
things that's going to take a long time to play out, it's not a direct benefit to holders in the
sense of financial money falling from the sky like a token would have been and so I always
suspected that if token was not going to be the announcement price was going to go down in the
short term, but long term if you were buying pudgies for the advancement of pudgies I think
this was a really solid roll out thus far. I would tend to agree and you nailed it Logan,
I think on this show you said basically that if it's not a token that the price is going to fall,
basically it just ran too far too fast and now we're seeing, we'll all call a healthy pullback,
we'll see how far it goes. Emily, would love your reactions to Project Overpass.
Yeah, honestly had they announced a token I would have expected them to absolutely tank,
I think this is the normal type of pullback you see after any event and you know if I was pudgy I
would be stepping very carefully if I'm opening up partnerships with a bunch of companies before
launching a token that you know it could make many of those companies actually disinterested right
like their compliance departments could have a huge problem with creating those relationships
with the company that's if you know potentially unregistered securities so I don't think that
makes sense for the for where they're at right now. I mean I poked around the site a little bit,
the animations are nice, I couldn't get much further than that though so I mean I guess we'll
probably start to see screenshots and stuff soon enough. Yeah it's kind of interesting how it
launched on Friday it was almost like that they didn't mean to formally announce it Friday but
the site was live and of course I think they've got some die hard holders you know who are probably
refreshing that site you know I guess at least once a day they got some tips that the site was
live I saw it in a couple group chats I went to the site and then posted about it I think a few
folks got a little bit of pushback from the community for doing so but the reality is the
site was live and then we got an announcement on Saturday I think Luca gave like a little bit of
some conflicting it isn't the right word here but he was talking about how the announcement is
about pudgy toys season two I wasn't totally following it to be honest but I mean I think
this is largely what we expected with Project Overpass I think that they hinted at this now
we have it I mean I think it's very cool I think the questions are you know you know which brands
are gonna come to the table what are these deals actually look like and then the next question for
those who are deep in the ecosystem is are the multipliers worth it is it worth picking up a
ROG for the extra 3% you know I think another question I saw kind of going around the timelines
why wouldn't brands just come in and buy the NFT you know versus you know paying the paying the
holder here which I thought was interesting of course it's a little bit nuanced you can't just
buy any NFT off the market but for some of the lower end collections like little pudgies I think
that is a much more interesting question you know why are they gonna pay someone you know versus
just buying a $3,000 NFT and I think it kind of points to a larger question of which collectibles
which collections are actually going to be used here in Overpass by brands but that's the only
question we're gonna be able to answer over time ghost I'm curious for your reactions to the
announcement are you thinking about you know would you sign up in any of your NFTs if possible
yeah I mean it's it's not too exciting for me I mean I think that the the rollout was fine I think
we've seen like licensing type stuff like this before and it's never really excited me too much
and for the same kind of kind of reasons that you and Logie have mentioned here it's I feel like the
brands would rather probably just either own their own NFT or create their own NFT and there's still
so much negative sentiment in the mainstream space towards NFTs that I I think that the the
range of of who's gonna be using this for licensing is limited and it it makes more sense for me to
see like the the made-by-apes people that own their ape and then create like a brand and product
around it more so than like licensing out an NFT where someone else does the work with something
that someone else owns so in that regard I guess I'm a little bit bearish on licensing out NFTs to
companies but I agree with with you and Logie and I think that if if it wasn't going to be a token
that the price was going to pull back and it rose so fast I don't think that this is anything
necessarily concerning it was it was destined to pull back at some point if there wasn't a token
announcement yeah I don't think any holders are sweating the the pullback here I think in many
cases some are probably rooting it on I know personally I'd love the chance to acquire more
around 10 to 12 which which would be a much more attractive entry than 20
from just an ROI standpoint Emily additional thoughts on your side
yeah I mean I think the biggest difference between Overpass and Made by Apes is that
Overpass is for partnerships and I would say that most people do not have the abilities to build
and accelerate a brand all on their own especially with some kind of the unique imagery that we have
so I think there's a place in the market for both tools I mean there are people definitely in this
community that have those skills but it's not a trivial skill set I would say so I think that
there's a lot of appeal to just being able to you know make an agreement with someone and sign those
rights oh for sure I know myself personally I'll be honest like I'm not going to go through the
legwork of trying to connect with brands to use the IP on my pudgy but if I'm able to click a
few buttons on Overpass and someone else can do the work behind the scenes that is very attractive
of course who would it not be attractive for so it's also interesting to see like will we see
more of a return to mid-tier and you know high quality trait collecting with this type of upside
I mean certainly I think if we start to see some deals done if we start to see some math and some
actual numbers you know maybe this is what saves the mid-tier the mid-tier PFP market here
interestingly enough too I've got a chat going with the Wasabi team and it looks like
short long interest did kind of merge over the weekend with pudgies but right now long interest
is showing back around 97% so the market has flipped along again on pudgies that's an
interesting data point Logan additional thoughts I'm actually just going to ask Tyler if you had
you know signed up your your pudgy for the the big pudgy opportunity the 20% royalty for chapter
I have not yet but it is on the list for this week I was a bit I'm disconnected this weekend
um but yeah on the short list for sure here well I want to step away from pudgies and just talk
kind of broader ethereum nft market here and Logan maybe I'll throw it back to you are we just in
farmer world for the next four months it's like we come on these shows and we try to craft narratives
for why the price goes up on a weekly basis why it goes down on a weekly basis but it really seems
like the reality for 99% of this and of course there are exceptions is that it's just driven by
whatever the hell the farmers are doing that week and is it just going to be this for the next four
months until the the blast till the blast air drop in may what's your read it certainly feels like
it's it's not only going to be this for the the you know the near term but also has been this uh
for a long long time in many ways and speaking anecdotally uh right but as sam was kind of
pointing out uh in that tweet there when there's so few wallets controlling so much action
you know that's the lending market and beyond but just it just feels like that's been the case for
so long you know there's these handful of individuals handful of wallets handful of pockets of money
um that have done all of the action uh whether that's bidding or you're dumping or whatever
the case may be um and it's never really felt super organic most of the movement across any
of the ethereum collections so unfortunately i think the answer is yes uh the near term four
months maybe even beyond right is going to be dominated uh you know these people people are
much smarter than i are going to try and do the math on whether it makes sense to continue to
farm whether the incentives uh make sense and you know in many ways i guess that calculation is
pointed at pointed to yes or people are making that bet um but the unfortunate part of that is
you know if if you're you or i and you're just looking to pick up one or two nfts or participate
in these collections more you know in a normal way uh you're at the mercy of so many other folks and
so yeah it stinks but that's kind of the nature of the game that we're playing right now it was
just very interesting to see like the way sam had painted the picture finally i think we've talked
about it but he actually showed the data to to point out how two wallets are literally controlling
the entire nft lending ecosystem on ethereum right now uh and that's a big deal and if these folks
who can be moody right decide they want to close up shop you know there are there are certainly
impacts in the near term and i think it's something that has to you know anyone who's
really thinking about unloading you know a lot of liquidity into these pfps has to has to be
conscious of that right as long as these farmers are in the mix does it really make sense um you
know of course again some collections have proven they can still run like pudgies but
you know beyond the farmers but it's been tough for most ghosts you know i'm curious for your
thoughts i kind of watching the farming action play out like is it even worth trading on eth
right now have you been trading much or just focused elsewhere like how are you reacting to it
man i don't i honestly don't even find myself opening blur very much anymore or checking the
the ethnfts i've been like just focused on on ordinals and and so honestly um it's just been
a more fun place to play um dabbling in the the meme coins and shit coins there too
and i the only things i've found myself doing on eth lately are selling into to bids to try to get
more liquidity for other things because it just seems kind of dead right now and like you said
it's it's dominated by farmers i hate that i hate the inorganic uh incentives and uh being at the
whims of of farmers um and it doesn't feel like that as much on on salana it feels it's just a
lot more organic and fun um so yeah that's that's how i'm feeling right now but i honestly like
it's been weird like i i get my updates honestly from your your newsletter or or on this show and
i just i used to have a blur tab up all the time and now i have like a tensor magic eaten up and
just check those charts i feel like every day and i just haven't been looking at blur really at all
i'm with you if i didn't have to report on the nmt market every day i don't think i would be
checking blur on a daily basis at this point i've made a handful of ethnft plays in the last few
weeks uh and also on some of them might have said instant regret just a couple days later
about how i could have made those plays on bitcoin or perhaps on on salana i think from
an nrt perspective the ordinals ecosystem is much more interesting to me personally right now
uh than eth is and it's because it just seems to be farmer free i i don't think salana is
uh farmer free at all i won't talk about that in a bit but that nrt ecosystem is less and less
interesting to me by the day at this point um but but bitcoin is much more exciting um i guess logan
last question here and then we'll move on the broader state of ethan atis if you had to bet
right now on like the large cap eth nft pfp index or the art index price
at the end of february are you betting higher lower or even than it is right now
oh um i think i'm i'm probably betting lower um yeah i mean maybe not drastically lower but i
think i'm i'm betting i'm betting low girls with those same question to you can you repeat the
question if you had to bet large cap pfp index price or art index price on eth into february so
one month from now do you think we're higher lower or neutral same oh man i'm gonna go higher
oh wow mixed board i'm actually gonna take uh the easy route and go even i just had no read
whatsoever i think it's literally just gonna come down to whatever the the farmers decide
uh you know in the final weeks which is what's making this market so hard to predict
on a on a day-to-day basis but who knows maybe we'll get some news in the interim well let's
move on let's talk some salah here real quick um so the story over the weekend was all about the
jupiter meme coin win which is also a fractionalized nft by the way it's still all the attention on
soul since it's friday launch it's all over a hundred million dollars on friday it ran to 190
million here uh this morning i'm gonna check the price now so i'm seeing it closer to 170 million
right now the token it was air dropped to one million wallets that stimulus jumped up to about
a hundred bucks i want to say as of yesterday only 54 percent of wallets had claimed i think
we got the info i believe that the the uh the window to claim has now ended and i want to say
it was less than 70 of those wallets claimed so those other tokens i believe are going to be
burned uh we'll follow up with more details later but unfortunately other salah meme coins
did suffer in the process it also led to somewhat of a boring nft market so the the notable salah
leaders mad lads at 184 tensorian's at 83 soul clano's at 39 rubber uh ghost favorite a new art
project darling uh holding at 14 uh crypto undeads at nine frogana uh right around nine as well it
seems now all attention is going to shift to the jupiter token launch uh coming this wednesday which
is widely expected to open up somewhere between four billion six billion dollar ftv and provide
just a giant stimulus to the salah ecosystem now the question is where is that liquidity going to
flow meme coins nft's or elsewhere uh so that's the overview logie i'll throw it back to you where
is the liquidity from jupiter going to flow you think it's nft's meme coins salah what are you
what are you betting on i think it'll be a mix of all um but my you know my first uh inclination
is the is the meme coins um just given uh you know some of the the darlings there and the
narrative that's overtaken my timeline right the the fun in celebrating kind of everybody can
celebrate right something like uh dog with hat because it's not um it's not held to like you know
10 000 holders or whatever the case may be um so my first inclination is meme coins but i think
everything will will catch a little bit of a bit uh here in it but in a different way this time
around i'm wondering how many folks may actually be more likely just to kind of hold their airdrop
um versus other airdrops at least personally and the reason i bring that up is just because
personally as i think about like uh you know my my actions in the coming days and week um i'm
feeling pretty good about jupiter as like a longer term thing whereas most other airdrops i've gotten
you know just been like okay this is free money i have really no connection nothing you know no
feeling about uh this particular platform or protocol uh i'm just gonna take the free money
and go in this instance i'm like i'm more wobbly on that um and and so i wonder if maybe some of
those second order effects are a bit muted if people are actually more interested in just
you know maintaining a position in the jupiter token that's an interesting point i think certainly
of the the tokens we've seen jupiter will be one that is held more than the others i think
typically if you look at the charts of any airdrop you know alts they had their tokens dropped
against the native currency the charts pretty much all go one way uh and that's down against
the native currency but this one uh is perhaps a wild card you know certainly folks kind of pointing
to to uniswap's uh price performance here you know over the last few years since their airdrop
i'm gonna see if i can pull uniswap up now so uniswap um three and a half billion dollar market
cap right now uh so i guess wow jupiter is expected well not market cap wise um so i mean
that's a potential target that folks are looking at when we're seeing daily volume numbers
on jupiter kind of come close to to where uniswap is even across uh that they're different you know
l2s and whatnot um emma i'm curious for your thoughts and then we'll go to akeen
yeah um i don't i don't know if i would start expecting people to be holding tight
under these airdrops and i'm also not sure the future of these um tools that use an airdrop based
on past participation i feel that um that companies that use to go that way are really
kind of misunderstanding what an airdrop is meant to do and like wallet wallet can generate talk if
you really want to maximize your airdrop and they do cost money to put out there i think if you really
want to maximize it you want to clearly lay out what activities um you're going to be rewarding
and set a pretty solid time frame over that um over that drop because what you're trying to do
is build habits around um usage and i you know that it puts doubts in my mind over jupiter
and um you know while i i found it a nice dex um when i was trading on it i just don't know
if they have the sophistication to really um take a significant amount of market share like
that just seems to be the pattern that we see with airdrops so you know i don't know it feels like
kind of a bet on if you're betting on jupiter to me it's largely a bet on salona the salona
ecosystem and you know it's tokens meme coins continuing to to be a huge part of the the salona
casino which personally i feel like it absolutely will be so i understand the the thesis for sure
just to pause on that like there's tons of good dexes on salona that show you a lot
more information than jupiter does and like that's kind of been the salona thing forever right like
at least at least as far as they're like defi tooling they've they always seem to be more
technically sophisticated or just more committed to the user experience and the types of things
that we see on e um but that doesn't you know i i think they blew it with with what's you know
going on so far at least like i i mean i don't know maybe it's maybe it's just for funsies whatever
but um you know we'll see well they certainly have a lot of features and again i'm not i'm not
an expert in the salona dex market right now i believe jupiter's like dca feature um you know
some of their limit order functionality is a differentiator at least from its eth counterparts
i don't know you know what radium might have to offer if they've got similar functionality
i i use bird's eye as well from time to time if i can't find tokens on jupiter i don't think
they've got that functionality but again i'm speaking out of turn uh a little bit um so i
mean it certainly is a competitive landscape i i think they've announced like there's going to
be future airdrop so there is another season effectively of jupiter running right now and
folks who are using the protocol are earning points or or what have you for that that future
airdrop so they do have that other you know incentive arm i believe it's operating but i'll
pause a keen curious for your thoughts then we'll go back to logan and ghost yeah i have a an
opposite take i mean i think there's a reason why jupiter is called the front page of salona
is by far the best defy tool i've used and and i've been building a defy for the last five six
years on eth right there's just nothing better than jupiter um and i think that retroactively
um doing the airdrop based on usage and based on the history of wallets interacting with the
protocol is actually the right thing to do um because a lot of what has been telegraphed by me
now is that governance is going to be really important and like this you know i think the
next round of drops doesn't come until next year so this is this is it for like the year and so i
think the next year is really about consolidating the community getting governance going and you
know a core utility of the token is going to be the launch pad i mean that's an assumption but
they're going to have a launch pad to launch future tokens on jupiter um you've seen with
the when the when airdrop was essentially a test run or the second test run and i think
it performed pretty well um there are still challenges and claiming but for those who sort
of you know just raised their price and right kind of actually like read through and follow
the rules i mean i had no problems claiming from four wallets and had no fails and and so the thing
is like on the one hand i think what jupiter has done really well is they've created a very very
clean user experience i think is relatively easy to understand but the plumbing is a lot more
complex and people realize and i think that's where jupiter is superior to many other protocols
or DEXs on on the platform and there's also this cultural there's always this cultural viewpoint
right when i think about like the most important people on in terms of devs or or or individuals
on on salana it's Anatoly it's uh mer and it's me out like this is the three people that come to
mind that drive so much cultural attention right and i think that's important to note and so for
me this is not an issue where jupiter needed to expand the user base jupiter still is is by far
the number one place that people go to transact so that's already established i think this drop is
more consolidating users getting governance going right and then over the long term rewarding the
activities that they um they want to see and to me i think you you reward those who are using your
protocol and platform especially if that's already been established well i i'm with you there i think
where i will maybe uh soft disagree though the win uh the price action on day one it felt like
it was manipulated to me i i don't i don't know exactly what was happening but if you look at
those candles those aren't typical candles for you know how most meme coins trade out of the gate
so we will see you know if that was just due to bots or you know what was ever whatever was
driving that um you know we'll see if that continues i guess i i am interested you know
someone who does dabble a bit in the salon of meme coin ecosystem um if jupiter is just going
to become the the meme coin launch pad is it just going to be like the centralized meme coin you know
are these gonna be the only ones that that win all right are these going to be the ones that
everyone focuses on and like and what is the broader impact there um i i am curious about
there then we saw what what when did the broader ecosystem here this weekend i mean it totally
stole all the action all the attention which isn't surprising um but you know if juke continues to
to roll those out you know what does that mean a keen i'll let you respond and then i'll go over
yeah just a quick response so i think i think we're we're missing the long term if we're just
thinking meme coins like sure we should we should yeah we should look at jupiter more as a corollary
to the binance launch pad like this is the place where the majority of new projects that eventually
launch tokens are going to launch their projects right and if you're engaged in governance and
you're holding your tokens and you stake them you will get dibs on actually right picking right
the best projects you want to essentially invest in right and so i think that's that in my mind
that's the that's how i look at it and that's why i think it's it's a lot more significant
than meme coins right the question is which of these DEXs take the majority of market share
for future project launches and i think jupiter is very well positioned to be that place well that
makes for correct to me and kind of pull me back there a keen i will say a little bit in the weeds
on the meme coins because that seems to be kind of one of the the big drivers of action but yes
of course there is uh some bigger use cases on the table here logan we'll go for you and then ghost
and i just wanted to provide some clarity regarding the other rounds of airdrops i'm
looking at the jupiter docs now um so there are gonna be four rounds according to this initial
documentation from the jupiter site um and this is only the first round of 10 of the community
supply which is one billion tokens so 40 ultimately goes to the community there's
10 billion total as that means four billion eventually will be released to the community
um with three other rounds expected so just an update while you're looking at it and i this is
on me i haven't looked exactly so what how many tokens are we getting this week of the total
sorry sorry i misspoke 10 is allocated in round one uh one billion tokens okay so one billion
tokens coming out here yeah there's 10 billion total jupiter tokens 10 being allocated in this
first round well thanks for the details there logie i need to take a look at myself ghost
additional thoughts on your side yeah i don't have a ton to add on uh on wen and juke other
than i think that the nft impact that those are going to have is going to be like super significant
and i think it's going to be a huge liquidity injection um for jupiter in particular and i
don't think that people are going to leave the the sole casino and just like pull it out i think
it's going to be an injection for those sole nfts and i pinned uh the pole that osf ran actually
this is this is on blast not for for juke but i i think that we're going to have two significant
uh liquidity injections because it does look to me that like at least from that pole and obviously
there's not it's a small sample size of like a thousand people but a lot of people seem to be
moving their their blast when it unlocks over to to soul to play in those in that uh casino so i
think you're going to have uh february b an injection of both blast and juke liquidity
which could have a huge impact on on soul both meme coins and nfts oh so i'm calling total
bullshit on that osf pole uh i like there is no way in hell that significant money from ethereum
is flowing into soul post blast airdrop i think there's no way in hell that's how this plays out
in fact i would bet on the opposite i think there's a good chance that soul leads for the next
four months but then ahead of may uh when this blast airdrop comes all attention is going to
flood back uh to eat i think at that time maybe not all attention because salana has established
itself it's got a larger cohort folks will continue to play over there but thinking it's
going to go from eat the soul there i think is kidding yourself especially because we know blast
is going to launch with its own set of incentives so there's going to be even more um so i don't
know i'm not buying that one it is interesting that you think that the soul nfts will benefit
here i wouldn't bet against that um but i still like my read on salana ecosystem is that folks
would rather play the tokens than nfts and the nfts have very for the most part besides the leaders
have very short shelf lives of when you know they they run versus and how long those liquidity
windows last before they start to see sell-offs here um so i don't know that that's my read on it
there um hoping folks can still hear me maybe logan can did you lose connection on me you can
still hear me i can't throwing thumbs up all right it's just ghost okay well folks we're about 37
minutes in here i want to make sure we spend some time on the the quantum cast but before we do that
let's read the news today's top headlines powered by lucky trader trading volume came in 18.3 million
and 21.7 million on ethereum over the weekend lowest trading volume in the past 10 days
leaders were very red down three to ten percent bear chain bears entities led notable top movers
on eth with those baby bears up 17 to 16.6 and boo bears up 19 to 33 a new d gaming xyz account
popped up on x over the weekend followed by frank d gods leading to rumors of the next potential move
being gaming for the d gods mochi mons dominated based in a t action over the weekend reaching 0.8
eth at peak before settling around 0.5 this morning in in the latest cute meta node monkeys led action
on bitcoin with just six and a half bitcoin in volume on the day holding at 0.169 as the top 12
nfts on magic even combined for just 26 bitcoin volume on the day rsic at 0.034 puppets at 0.042
salon nfts mostly chopped over the weekend with frog ganas leading volume uh at nine mad lads up
two percent 183 tensorings at 83 and we've got some breaking news this morning the lazy lions
have some new leadership uh so we will have more info later today on who exactly that is
in broader web 3 and crypto crypto majors slightly read this morning bitcoin down
a touch around 42 000 eth at 22 50 soul right around 97 leading meme coins did take a hit with
the focus on when bach was down six percent to 737 million market cap with at 316 um and then as
we talked about jupiter uh saw more dex volume on sun saturday than eth rival unit swap v3
definitely a promising sign ahead of this week's jupiter airdrop all right so that was a rundown
on the news there's some headlines to react to uh and we'll get there as well but we gotta spend
uh some time here talking quantum cats and uh and bitcoin uh nft ecosystem so i'll do just a quick
intro last week at this time i i kind of paying this picture that i was very worried about liquidity
on bitcoin ahead of this quantum cats matt uh you know they're going to raise 300 bitcoin
in the process that was more volume than we saw across the top 12 in the week before
but this past week we got this airdrop from rsic which provided a very nice stimulus it did spike
trading so you know we saw rsicc 224 bitcoin volume alone on the week again holding at 0.034
the puppets had a fantastic week i think they ran to 0.055 at peak sell at 0.04 too still up
nearly 100 on the week node monkeys had a pretty solid week as well we did see a little bit of a
sell-off yesterday ahead of today's quantum cats minute folks just quick tldr 3333 nfts 3000 of
which are available in today's sale price is 0.1 bitcoin it's happening at 12 p.m eastern
for whitelist 3 p.m eastern for public uh who is minting here it's those who did the the quest
whitelist winners from other bitcoin communities and then the public sale and i believe the reveal
is tomorrow at least tomorrow is when the nfts will be distributed so that's the quick overview
logie maybe i'll throw it to you first any reactions to this week's volume is this market
going to be able to absorb the quantum cats men do you think it's going to pump the broader
eco do you think it's going to take away what's your take and i don't expect a pump of the broader
ecosystem but i've been uh i've not been reading this too well um i i was caught off guard by by
last week's activity which felt like a pump even though you know it may have been short-lived in
some ways um most of my expectations coming into this were that things would kind of uh chill out
um you know waiting for quantum cats to start trading waiting for quantum cats to mint it
it appears to have done so a little bit right here in the last few days but you know so many
variables at play with the weekend and such um so man i i feel like i am completely out of uh
out of the loop in terms of what to expect um i do think you know all of the concentration
is going to be on quantum cats once those do start trading so i think the other collections will
will hold themselves down a little bit um but otherwise like i said i've just been i've been
reading this incorrectly the entire time yeah as of i in fact my numbers from this morning are
outdated it looks like folks waited till the last minute uh to to get their bitcoin ready so rsic
down at 0.03 now puppets down at 0.036 uh so so both of those are down substantially from
local highs node monkeys are hanging in there at 0.168 again those are the three primary volume
leaders here uh so it looks like we're starting to get some signs there is going to be a bit of a
sell-off here into the the met um i came curious for your thoughts on the cats how to play out
what impact it might have yeah i mean i think i think the cats are going to do really well
i think i think it's well from my perspective and my speculation is i think the cats will bring in
new capital or new bitcoin into the ordinals ecosystem because of in my view where they sit
um in terms of not just the culture but even how the the white list was done right for those who
kind of went through the process which i did um it really was to educate people on what opcat
as an opcode is why it's significant and why a soft fork of bitcoin should include opcat going
forward right and i think for those who actually went through the steps like you began to understand
a couple of things one that in my view right this kind of represents perhaps a new way
for social governance to happen on bitcoin right because bitcoin's governance is opaque it's all
these sort of like you know non-transparent devs that have power and all these sort of hidden power
structures but if you could leverage like this social consensus or leverage these nfts to build
community and then these communities can now exert influence on bitcoin governance just because of
the fact that you can organize them i think it's really significant and i think it makes um
quantum cats kind of stand out to some extent and if they can kind of retain that sort of hey we're
really based devs we're about the culture we're og's um i think i think they i think they garner
quite a bit of respect even from those who don't agree with them you cannot sort of deny the fact
that you know these guys have been the ecosystem for a long time and they have a very very intimate
knowledge of the of the code base and so the outputs that they come out with i think are
looking so far interesting and they've telegraphed a lot more to come which could keep the engagement
going so i think in and of itself it's extremely significant i think perhaps maybe some of the other
you know high flower flyers sort of take a breather um but i don't necessarily think that
opcat is going to draw all the liquidity away from everyone else i think it's actually going to bring
in some new liquidity that maybe perhaps gets dispersed um over the next few weeks well that's
good to hear uh certainly anyone playing in this ecosystem i think that's music to their ears i
think you gave the right curve take i'll give the the left curve take uh in that i think you know
anyone there's a common narrative to take the consensus that folks hate spending their bitcoin
on nfts and i absolutely understand that and i think there there haven't been many like safe
best i'm putting safe in quotations because of course we know how the nft market can play out
but like if you're looking for a project to to bet on i mean betting on on ud and the tapper
wizards team feels like one of the the safest plays you can make and so i can see an absolutely
unlocking liquidity from folks you know folks who are in this ecosystem they're just kind of sitting
on their bitcoin i can absolutely see that you know getting unlocked here and if that is the case
then i think i think certainly that would be a boom across the nft leaders even though
um that the cats are likely going to be the the immediate beneficiary in the near future let's
talk some price targets because that's what we do on the show um logie i'll put you i'll throw you
under the bus first where are you setting your over under let's say these do mint and reveal
or the nfts are distributed tomorrow and revealed tomorrow where do you think uh where are you
setting your over under price target for wednesday uh wednesday at noon i think i think these are
pretty quick two or three acts so i think like a 0.25 bitcoin um floor uh you know out of the gate
there um once you know some people that want to take some profits and stuff get out of the way
that feels like a fair assessment 0.25 so i'm going to say around there and probably slightly
over wednesday wednesday by noon that you said all right so logie's setting the line at 0.25 i
think that's a pretty fair line go so you're going over under 0.25 i was actually the number
that popped right in my head i'll go slightly over though just to be a little different but
and we were also we did the same exercise for uh undeds and we're totally wrong on that but
i i think uh i think that this one has a little bit more legs and has that that strong team behind
people that are uh a team that people respect and and like a keen said i think that that
udi and people are going to be bringing other uh bitcoin whales and things that that might not
necessarily be dabbling in the nft market otherwise so um i i do think that this one is a clean
probably two or three acts thank you for reminding our listeners that us moon boys missed undeds by
a large margin i think i called for like 40 to 50 soul out of the gate maybe higher um which which
was clearly wrong but you know in order of magnitude there i just i found myself uh you know
trying to find that the bear takes for this one you know it's a it's a it's a cash grab i think
it's an easy narrative to uh to latch on to this is going to be like a 12 million dollar plus raise
if they sell this out by all accounts it's like even the public sale here is going to be bought
it's going to be nearly impossible it's going to be a wild gas war it's going to be hard to
demand is going to be there i middle curve node monkeys and i let the fog get to me there while
a lot of folks are calling that just like a smash play uh and then watch you know as that 10x i feel
like you just can't overthink this one and it's the the cats are are going to do well at least
that's where i'm landing here right now and of course the wild card here is i haven't really seen
a whole lot of folks talking about is if they they dangle any carrot along the lines of access
to taproot wizards be a holding cat uh even access at raffles you know that right there
uh is enough to to put some level of value into the cats and the teas you know putting aside
everything else that that went into the project so i don't know that that's my read we will certainly
see here um and i'm sure we'll talk about it more on tomorrow's show we've got about 10 minutes
left i want to make sure we get to a few other uh of the headlines here logan maybe i'll throw it
to you for lazy lions we got some major it's a new acquisition acquisition maybe the wrong word
new leadership unfortunately i didn't get the details because they token gated it i'm curious
for your read on what happened and maybe reactions to why token gating a new leadership announcement
uh and blocking that from the rest of the market
yeah i i don't know why either i unfortunately was not in the discord so i've tried to add myself
back in and can't see the announcement uh which seems really really odd um but we knew this was
coming right like we knew they were shopping it i saw some price action over the weekend that
i don't know who was driving that right as to uh why people would want to be buying in
i guess we'll find out and report of course who these buyers are it's going to be a long road
back uh i you know i expect this to be kind of out of the news in a in a day uh to be quite honest
sorry to the lazy lions fans in here but long long road back so many assets in play um just
i don't know it seems really weird all around so and apparently there was a discord announcement
that they would make this announcement on the 29th so the price action leading up to it
not inside information necessarily like this is that this was known i guess by holders um so
that was a good clarification i received in my replies this morning i think token gating it is
just such an interesting decision like when the whole the whole point of an announcement like
this is you want to bring in new buyers um so hiding that from them just seems so so odd to me
so i'm curious why they would have gone that route uh ghost i'm curious for your thoughts
if new leadership can turn around the lines if you ever traded these uh what's on your mind
i i have not but i i did have a quick lazy lion story and uh someone i went to middle school with
ended up being an olympic speed skater and i hadn't talked to her or heard from her or seen
anything about her other than her being in the olympics for like 20 years and then i saw her
randomly pop into my twitter feed and she was rocking a lazy lions uh pfp and talking about
how much she loved the community and how great it was and it was just a hilarious experience to see
someone that i hadn't talked to in like 20 years suddenly uh shielding lazy lions they are out
there the lazy lions are are indeed out there and logan brought up the point i forgot about
all the other assets so what is it the cubs how many cubs are there like 20 000 logan do you happen
to have uh i think it's 20 000 i'm not looking at her now but there's cubs there's like cabanas at
one point in time i mean they tried to do a lot of different stuff and for quite a while the community
was very rabid but um at this point taking over all those assets just seems so so miserable um
but whatever yeah i mean we talk about acquisitions of an empty collection sometimes on the show and
the more assets you have just the the messier that this all gets um so good good luck to them
i've heard folks think that the lazy lions ip is good and there is a potential play there um i'm
i'm perhaps a little bit more bearish on that but we'll see if they can turn it around uh logie
maybe i'll go back to you for mochiman i think you know you are enthusiast a fan of cute nfts
of bright nfts certainly the mochimans at least are are fairly bright and colorful i'm curious
were you following the mochiman action over this weekend uh do you have any read or reaction to it
uh i have a reaction the mochimans are definitely cute um and i'm a fan of all that stuff and the
bright colors that come with it any nft and collection that you know sort of rolls out in
this manner uh with this color palette uh you know i'm just naturally a fan of so kudos to them
um yeah loosely following of course one thing that's really interesting to me about the last
you know month maybe two months is that every sort of chain starts to or has started to really iron
out its nft you know kind of the face of that chain you know i think crypto punks of course
board apes on eth mad lads tensorians on soul um you even have things like joko and steady on
on avax right and like if for us reporting every single day a lot of these don't really
necessarily creep into the headlines but if you take a look at the volumes and the prices attached
to these it's more notable than perhaps you would uh you would even think i know there's been lots
about like the say nfts recently as well um and so the interesting thing about mochi wants to me is
that base uh which of course is notable in many ways given its connection to coinbase and beyond
um doesn't really have that nft yet uh you know that's that's where this is sort of interesting
to me um you know a lot of it also too is the fact that people want to be able to gamble on new
things uh so that's yeah i'm reserving judgment on whether or not mochi mods is truly the base nft
but you know i'm still kind of holding to that trend of these these uh chains themselves sort of
finding their nft or at least the the leading set of nfts for people to focus on uh and participate
with and so that's where i think mochi mons has a really strong current uh trend uh for the future
who knows some interesting analysis i think the question is is base is our base nfts uh equivalent
to polygon nfts and i'm certainly one i think on the show last year during the bear market at one
point i was calling for polygon nft summer i which of course never played out or came anywhere close
to playing out uh we've seen a handful of collections do okay on polygon but but for the
most part uh it's it's just a desert out there in terms of liquidity which has been my read
on base as well and if ethereum nfts are fairly quiet other than farmers i guess the question
to me why would base succeed we haven't really seen it yet but the mochi mons they definitely
caught the attention over the weekend um ghost i'm curious for your thoughts do you think uh
is base nfts are they polygon nfts do you think they've got more upside um and then if you ever
traded tubby cats are these tubby cats 2.0 i'd also like to hear that question answered i think
i did have a tubby cat at one point um not for very long i don't think i was in the in the
community really but i did trade one at one point um and i i do kind of feel the i i saw the the
mochis all over my timeline this weekend but i i kind of have the same knee-jerk reaction as you
it's it's tough to to see this having legs um and i i could be very wrong here but it does feel i
think that you're saying that the polygon fts that's kind of how i feel about the the base nfts
right now it just still it feels like that that low cost uh chain right now in terms of the nft
world so but i'm sure there will be at least one winner that comes out of that so maybe that is
the mochis but it's it's hard to turn around sentiment for for a chain when it's kind of
programmed as as that uh that low-cost chain and i don't think we've seen too many polygon nfts
that have gone to to huge prices um so it's been hard to turn that one around as well yeah i'm
gonna quickly tell my tubby cat story well thank you for your thoughts there they're ghosts so
because when i saw mochi mons my first reaction is these are uh maybe a cuter version of tubby cats
um the one of the sunglass traits looks very similar to me which kind of what sparked my
attention but i was a bit of a tubby cat whale uh back when they came out and i built a fairly
large position i had like 20 plus of these i thought they were going to really move i also
minted a one-of-one which had a 20 eth offer on it which i turned down uh at the time uh because
of how bullish i was on the collection uh unfortunately like on the second or third
day of trading russia invaded ukraine it stopped the nft market in its tracks uh and then tubby
cats proceeded to go down only i don't know if they were always going to go that that route
perhaps they were uh but that invasion directly impacted my tubby cat's back so that's a quick
story that i thought i'd share hi tyler's gonna be telling his kids in 20 years that if it wasn't
for the ukraine war they would have been just rich off their tubby cats i mean there's a scenario
uh where tubby cats go to a five-week floor and i would have been hilariously hilariously rich
unfortunately that scenario did not play out emily uh curious for your thoughts
yeah um i have trouble seeing any nfts really take off on base because i think there's a few
of us that remember they had an nft marketplace that never really did anything so it's almost
like they rugged before they even got started right i i just can't imagine people really wanting to put
too much of their best effort over there unless they have like a very uh a very good ponzi setup
that is something they can get away with specifically on coin base um but like that's
that's kind of that's kind of what happens on the the lower cost uh chains where people are
more willing to put things like their um their like longer-lived ponzi schemes on there but
because it's coin base and they have the ability to pull anything off of it i just i don't i don't
know if the incentives are ever going to get aligned on that one yeah it's interesting and
i feel like coin base did a very nice job of amplifying their their base summer when they
launched back in august i feel like i haven't seen quite as much marketing you know in the in
the recent weeks and months perhaps i'm just not paying attention to it uh but that would be
something to watch is if they start kind of getting behind any of these nfts or tokens i
think the mochi token which is like loosely tied not directly tied to this project also had a big
weekend as well so that's another factor to perhaps watch logie we're almost out of time
maybe quick reactions on this open sea acquisition situation that played out you know we saw that
this article come out uh with some devin finzer quotes it seems like the quotes kind of got taken
out of context uh finzer went you know clarified on x that they aren't actively looking for
acquisitions right now what's your read did this get blown away out of proportion is there uh
you know this uh there's smoke you know where there's fire situation here what's your what's
your read yeah i investigated when i when i saw this hit the timeline uh and my initial reaction
was uh this was a lot of nothing you know if you read the the quotes at least the way i interpreted
the quotes from the initial dl news article um which was fairly reported it was pretty empty
um and then of course people took the headline from that article which is designed to get clicks
and stuff uh and it's funded out of control in my opinion so i'm glad he clarified uh for folks um
i think there's really nothing here for us to to pay attention to at this point in time yeah it
seems like somewhat of a non-story but of course the the clickbait uh went went around it did get
open seed back back in the headlines uh which perhaps is positive so we'll see if the finzer
and team have some moves up their sleeve here um in the near future i think that would be a welcome
surprise for the market but until then we will just wait and see but folks for today's show that
is going to be it uh before we leave what's minting just a handful of mints on the list here
today dark frontiers at 9 a.m eastern memes by 6529 going live right now then taproot wizards
those quantum cats at 12 p.m eastern it is a slow day new mints but arguably the biggest bitcoin
mint of the year uh definitely of the year so far with quantum cats we talked about the details
earlier in the show but with the npts not actually being delivered until tomorrow it's
likely we'll see more of a quiet day here today until those cats start trading tomorrow but once
they start trading all bets are off perhaps we will see some fireworks it is going to be fun
to watch but as for now that is it that's our show uh we'll be back tomorrow at 10 a.m eastern thanks
to our listeners thanks to my co-host thanks to akeen for coming up everyone enjoy your monday let's