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Prophecy ep.2
Recorded: Jan. 21, 2026 Duration: 0:46:19Space Recording
Short Summary
In a lively discussion, crypto enthusiasts explore the latest trends in prediction markets, the impact of real-time information on trading strategies, and the implications of recent partnerships and fundraising efforts in the industry. Key highlights include the concept of 'reality arbitrage' and the challenges faced by platforms in maintaining user engagement amidst market fluctuations.
Full Transcription
Thank you. Thank you. Sweet we're gonna be starting shortly.
Yeah I draw the camera on there but I think you just gotta mute this and then hop onto
the space.
Then we'll be able to record as well.
We got a listener.
We got Polterblank listening and he's going to hear what's cooking with profits.
Prediction market news of the week.
I did send you a request on X.
You should have it
If I can hear you google me I can hear you oh we can hear you yeah, but we we streaming a space Joe
well I don't know how we're gonna capture the audio but it's fine we move
Alright, so I'll be able to do you through the space. Yeah, I'm gonna mute. I'm gonna mute you as well I don't know how we're gonna capture the audio, but it's fine. We move
maybe just just keep your keep your don't don't need it just mute the tab
you know so it still captures the audio through the through the Gmeet so you
have your audio on but then mute your tab. Yeah, I think that should cook it
Yeah, so now I can't hear you there, but I can see you not muted perfect
But now Joey, you need to start to unmute on the X and then we're good to go
Audio through X
Audio through X
Wait, I muted this tab sorry I had this tab muted
I missed your last
we lost our listeners
it's fine
this is the plan
after this
after I've finished speaking mute the Gmeet tab Okay, this is the plan. This is the plan. After this,
after I've finished speaking,
mute the Gmeet tab,
but keep your audio on so then we can still record through Gmeet.
And then unmute yourself on X
and we'll speak primarily through the Twitter space.
Sweet.
Sweet, sweet, sweet.
Okay, but I still hear you.
Yeah, I'm going to mute you, but am I coming through on X?
Can you hear me on X now? try testing testing
there we go
there we go
welcome back to episode 2 of the profit live stream
going to be chatting through prediction markets what happened in the week maybe close a couple
trades i was actually i was trying to fund my account on polymarket because um unfortunately
i went a bit rogue after our last episode and I played some bets that didn't pan out too well,
but such is life.
I was trying to fund it via Mercurio,
which allowed me to add funds without KYC last time,
but this time it didn't allow me to add funds.
I don't know if my bank's blocked it
or what the situation is,
but now I have to go do full KYC through MoonPay
in order to add
funds or send crypto from an exchange.
Yeah, so that's a little update on the status.
We're not going to be doing any live trading but let's dive into it.
Joe, have you seen anything interesting this week?
Have you been on the Twitter or have you been tied up in work?
So there were a couple of things that I noticed
that were fun applications of prediction markets,
namely the American football game with the Broncos.
I don't even remember who they were playing.
My roommate's a huge Broncos fan, and so I don't like to watch football.
I like to watch him watch football.
And he was, so that the Broncos won the game,
and it was a very, very good ending of the game.
And then if you were watching, you realize right at the end of the game,
the Broncos quarterback announced that he had a season-ending injury.
So even though the Broncos just won,
the prediction markets for the Broncos winning it all probably spiked
because everybody just watched that happen.
But then if you were paying attention, you noticed that, oh, he got injured.
And then, bam, because that's a season-ender.
There's no way that that their second string
quarterback is going to take them all the way right and so i thought that was really interesting
is kind of like a to continue our conversation from last week of that real time the real time
play where the information flow if you're if you're really really in the zeitgeist then i
think there's a lot of money on the table so that was one that was really interesting and then uh of course the greenland stuff is just above all it's
i think hilarious um we're like teasing military force to nato just casually just casually just
casually teasing you know like we could do it we could do it. We could do it.
But yeah, just on what you mentioned
there with the sport game, I saw a term this
week which I found quite interesting.
Term reality arbitrage.
Which is pretty much what we were speaking
about, but it's a nice way to picture it
and it's basically just the gap between
real-time and market
consensus. So there's obviously
a delay in some markets it's
more of a delay than others like i think in sporting games it's up to up to 10 or 30 seconds
so there's definitely a massive edge if you if you're there at the game um but i see what you're
saying in that like a little bit of information comes out afterwards and the guys are still
plugged in watching the comment three have a
massive edge versus most of the people who've just been betting on the game they've placed their
trade and then maybe they go on to the next the next trade um yeah i wonder how this how this
reality arbitrage plays out like what what do you think has the biggest gap between um the the live
event and when people find out about it? Because this is also something
that I've been trying to understand for profit. Like how many news sources would have to report
on something before LLMs pick it up as the truth? I think those are two different questions.
Two different questions? Yeah. I think they're two different questions. Two different questions?
Yeah, I think they're two different questions.
They're both definitely related.
There's a lot of overlap there.
They can kind of help answer each other potentially.
But to answer the first question, I think sports are probably,
in terms of gross measurability, I would say sports probably has the largest gap.
However, there isn't a lot of – well, there is insider information with everything,
maybe except for hurricanes.
And you could even argue that some people control the hurricanes.
We're not going to get into that.
We're not going to get into that.
But if – let's say sports, right?
But if, let's say sports, right, you're watching a game,
and then all of a sudden something comes out that the quarterback
or the striker for Real Madrid gets injured,
then if you're watching that, if you're paying attention to the news,
it'll hit mainstream, I don't know yeah it's not even five depends on depends on how in how in the in
the know you want to be and you are but then the the next question would be when when the uh i don't
exactly understand how these llms actually scrape information in real time some of them are probably
better than others some of them are plugged in directly to these different news channels
and some are probably not.
I asked, for instance, Chajibiti this morning,
what is the new spread for the Broncos game on Sunday?
And it gave me last week's spread.
So it still doesn't.
There's still a little bit of hallucination going on, I think,
with a lot of this real-time information poll.
Yeah, just going back to the first point,
I think I feel like sports,
the gap is probably much more competitive
than anything else,
A, because you've got
however many tens of thousands of people
in the stadiums on those bigger games,
and then B, because it's just such a liquid,
such a high-value market that the competitive edge is being – like, there's just a lot of competition going in.
So it's going to make that gap smaller.
But these mentioned markets, like, I really think if you somehow are news reporter, if you're in the know and you've got a massive edge but let's let's dive
let's dive into into some more general general news i don't know if you you saw this whole this
whole info 5 thing that happened but basically they had there were platforms running uh kaito
and then cookie 3 and i think a couple others which basically incentivized
users to to post content on x so it's a new form of krol management where instead of
working with kls directly you would place some sort of bounty and if posts got a number of
engagements or if if you if you got a number of likes, you would be rewarded a bounty, which basically led to an infinite amount of AI slot being posted about whichever token or project wanted to promote.
It's kind of like in some ways, it's almost flattering to those companies that X picked up on it, that it was having such a large impact but it was essentially just leading to a mess on
on the timelines and no one could really tell what was real engagement because there's incentives
throwing in from from the outside so they they banned this um and the kitesler token dumped i
think some of some of the infoFi platform tokens completely tanked.
And their goal is really to just improve the experience.
And then along with this a couple of days later, I think yesterday
or the day before, they open sourced the X algorithm,
which looking at it, it's kind of a joke.
You think the algorithm is so advanced and
these these guys have been working on it for whatever 20 years or 15 years and it's got to be
the the hugest thing ever and you look at the tldr and it's like a couple points um we just trust
that like we show it to users if users like it we show it to more users if users don't like it we we don't show it to
more users um but yeah what are your thoughts on on this info 5 being banned do you think
do you think people are going to find new ways new ways around it's like going back to
typical kols or what do you what do you sort of see happening here yeah yeah yeah i gosh i have i have a world of thoughts around this well first
and foremost um help me understand here the very last sentence of this post transitioning your
business to threads and blue sky isn't blue sky oh he's taking the piss bro that's what it's a joke
right like that's a total that's hilarious, he's saying, oh, shame.
If this impacted you,
go to these other platforms.
Okay, but is it
Threads an X product?
Threads is
Instagram
That's right.
Thank you. When I think of myself, good. Yeah, it's nice.
Thank you, thank you.
Because when I think of myself, the word thread in terms of media, to me, I think of Twitter thread.
So that's why I was thinking of it. They try to just jump on the bandwagon.
The blue sky slap, that's hilarious.
That's one thing I do respect about this post.
Hey, I think it's generally a good
thing. I mean, we were talking yesterday about this notion of why isn't there some sort of
X experience where you can only interact with premium users, verified premium humans to where
it's like, oh, this is a real, this is a real, all engagement is real these users are real and then actually on that on that exact
same on that exact same note how cool would it be to have a socialized prediction market
of influencers of thought leaders of real world you know whether it's like politicians or whatever
where they say hey we're going to be doing this thing next year.
You should vote for me because I'm saying we are going to do this thing next year.
I'm literally going to be placing a bet.
You can see that I have placed a bet on this reality versus just, you know, and then also
experts that claim to be experts about, about the, you know, what, what the Fed is going to do with
rates and what, you know, all these different things, what's the price of silver, right? If you have Jim Cramer, who just talks and talks and talks about what stocks is going to do with rates and all these different things, what the price of silver.
If you have Jim Cramer who just talks and talks and talks
about what stocks are going to be doing,
we don't actually know what he's putting his money in.
There's a lot of that lacking.
So I think it'll be interesting to see what Polymarket and Call should do
from a socialization standpoint.
I know that you can already see
who suggested the prompt who suggested the actual market but you can't see i don't think which side
of the becker they've taken well what do you what do you think will happen first do you think a
social platform will integrate a prediction market or prediction market will start to turn into a
social social platform like you
have obviously comment sections on polymarket where they have like you can you can see traders
and you can see their their wallet balances and their comments but um do you see someone like i
mean if robin hood's integrating prediction markets you see you see someone like instagram implementing them or
youtube or or maybe twitch is a is an easy example of someone sort of a little bit lower down the
load on the ladder um yeah what do you think will happen first
i would say distribution typically wins so i would that, I would say the social platform
is probably gonna choose to integrate the market.
That's where the users are.
People spend more time on Twitter
than they do on calling market.
And Twitter has 10 times the users,
if not more than calling markets.
I would say it's probably gonna be a social platform
that becomes a prediction market in a way or at
least adds the integration that's what my gut says we're totally wrong yeah or almost like like an
in-between an in-between ground which i think happened i haven't really been keeping up with
the what's happening with ai agents on on x but i feel like there was a stage where you could set up an agent that could launch a coin just by tagging it.
So it could start off as like an agent on X where someone posts
something and then the people can bet against each other live where like
someone has a take and then someone else says at profit,
open a market with X, Y, and Z.
And obviously you'll need to have an account on profit
to then have that go live.
But then that just automatically launches the market post.
Like this is how much was funded into it.
So that could be like a light
where it isn't the platform integrating it directly,
but it's like a soft launch of the merge.
I'm going to put on my contrarian hat and say, hey, that's a brilliant idea.
I think that's, I think that's awesome.
I want that to exist.
But I think the issue is it just as they were to, they shut down these API, these different platforms that were, that were not integrated on x but we're actually using
the x traffic to make money and it would kind of dilute a little bit
i would say this what this would turn into is let's say a lot of people are are adding
are posting at profit to create a market and then profit does the reply guy thing where it's like
here here's your market here's the link to to the market or if you already have an account we
can actually just you can just reply your response and then it'll automatically do it
on your account that you could connect but eventually i think if twitter saw that growing
enough they would say oh we're just going to integrate that natively through volume i think
they would probably,
they'd probably want to take a sidestep away from it. That's my guess.
It's like posting,
like if you post the Instagram link in an extra reply,
I doubt that's going to get pushed to the top.
It's just,
it's just not really in their benefit.
Exactly.
They'll probably nerf,
nerf any kind of virality,
something like that.
Yeah.
Who's this guy?
This guy. You know this guy?
Orange man. I recognize him.
I don't think we would have to go to Congress
but we'll find out. The reason
we're even talking about it is that
we have so much money coming in from tariffs
that we'll be able to issue
at least a two thousand dollar
dividend and also pay down debt yeah so that's that's pretty much what he's what he's saying
he's just saying look like we're doing tariff dividends um and then i i chatted to like i was
where is it i opened i asked profit what the what what the chances were and they basically said
yeah I've been doing I've been testing out the video clips but they basically said yes chance no 86.21% and the question is
will they pay out a 2k tariff
to 50 million Americans by the end of March
so it's not zero chance
but there is some chance, it would be wild
if they did that it would be be absolutely
insane like how to how to get people to to continue voting for you just just pay them
oh you don't you don't own free money anymore sure vote for the opposition
i mean remember the i think it's uh gosh i want to say i don't actually remember who said it but
I think it's, gosh, I want to say, I don't actually remember who said it,
but democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government
because people realize that they can just vote themselves
largely as of the treasury.
And as soon as they realize that,
then all the delegates just start to crease their own pockets
and the whole thing falls apart.
So this could be the beginning of the end.
It's happening in real time.
But yeah, the orange man is is quality
content he's he's just i mean it's endless content um so this is this is probably the
roguest thing that i've i've seen so far i looked at how to look at this guy's account it all looks real this guy turned a thousand dollars into 3.6 mil um over over like over a
year um and i just don't understand how someone can win so consistently like this is literally his balance, just climbing slowly, slowly, slowly.
It's Barron Trump.
You think so?
But he's...
I would say, no, I don't.
It's a total joke because it's not all political, right?
There's people that have insider information in specific verticals.
But for someone to be winning across sports and entertainment and gaming,
it doesn't make any sense.
That's what was tripping me out.
And he's probably built some sort of proprietary brain.
It's got to be a brain.
Yeah.
I mean, this is statistically...
There's no way.
There's no way that a human can guess heads that many times in a row.
He's betting on every sport, e-gaming.
There's just way too much information.
I think overall he's done 20,000
predictions.
And what's the percentage of the predictions?
Over a year. I don't know. I actually need to find a better, it doesn't say that I need to find a bit like a better analytics tool for
Polymarket. I think there's a bunch of people building things,
but I haven't dived into one that, um,
that yeah, I haven't, I haven't actually dived into them too deeply
um but yeah my my my view on this is also that either a it has to be a brain or or it's a team
or it's like a team of people that have said um okay cool we're gonna we're gonna be pushing
through like we're just gonna focus on on party market we're gonna we're gonna be pushing through like we're just gonna focus on on party market
we're gonna we're gonna make it our our life going and then there's yeah but you can't there's
you can't do it will will Andrew Frankfurt win um FC Bayern Munich like how $28,000
you bet on
yeah and it's not even
it was just an over
under it's not even like
it's not like he's betting on the money line
for a goaded team
yeah
it's rogue Joe it's got to be
with 20,000 predictions
since
when is it?
Since July.
$200.
That's like 150 days.
It's nearly, what, 1,000 predictions a day.
It's the only answer.
It's either an incredibly brilliant AI engine
or a team of super forecasters.
It could be something similar to this.
I found this other one where this trader basically runs a script where he finds markets where the the spread is like inversely priced so
if um up cost 64 cents down cost 33 cents if you buy both of those together it's 97 cents
and then you're guaranteed to be paid out a dollar so there's someone who ran like synthdata.co they ran 11 000 trades um up 68k
from running from running some sort of script like that um yeah 32 million in volume 68k 96 96.9
win rate um so i think it think it's probably something like this combined
with a brand, but it's definitely
an edge
that no one else has.
Being right.
You would say
he loses
a heap.
Like if you look out alphabetically there's losses here
there's almost like an equal amount of of losses which is
is he placing a bet on each one then um yeah he won he won and he lost
that's probably
that's probably what he's doing
yeah so like this
Wuhan Tennis Open
he bought
no at
I don't know if this is yes or no
but he bought one side at
25 cents and he bought the other side
at 65, 66 cents and he bought the other five side at 65 66
cents so he's probably i would imagine he's placing limit orders because if if i look at um
if i look at the activity there's there's buys there's uh there's there's like consistent small
small buys going through like counter stripe map two winner these are both buys at 58 cents 59 cents so it's got to be some some limit order one thing one thing is for sure
these these are not qualitative none of these are qualitative facts these are all he's looking
strictly at the numbers and and he's doing some sort of info arbitrage.
The other thing that you can do, very similar to the tweet that you just had pulled up,
is you can do call sheet versus polymarket, for instance.
Let's say on call sheet, it's a 55 for a yes.
And on polymarket, it's 52 for a yes.
And on call sheet, it's a 46 for a no.
And then on polymarket, 48 for a no. You can buy the no on one side and the yes on the
other and your ev is still one but you paid only 95 or 98 so you have a basically a risk-free a
risk-free two percent and if that if that's something that settles within the week, you're doing 2% a week. That's, you're doing pretty well.
Yeah.
Plus you get 3.2% now for placing a trade on Koshi.
Like your capital just accrues value, which is cool.
Yeah.
What else is there to dive
into this is the
other thing that happened
whether or not this guy
was running civil accounts
is up for debate
but he
turned
yeah so
this is the
rebuttal Yeah, so this is the... It's the Rubiddle...
Yeah, he's...
What?
We can just find him...
He follows us now which is which is cool um but he turned 12 into 100k over 16 trades just
doubling up doubling up doubling up um and all calling the price of Bitcoin each day. Wow.
12 to the last trade, 50K, 53K in profit.
Oh my gosh.
The view is supposedly he ran a whole bunch of accounts
until he got to this level.
So he just cymb first the first part was like
okay I'm gonna bet yes yes yes yes yes no no no like all of the different
outcomes and this guy kind of breaks down and look in look into how how he too many times yeah this
he basically breaks it down
okay I'm getting
distracted but the
gist of it is
he doubled up
16 times in a row.
What do you think about this strategy?
Do you think it's just max gambling?
Or do you think it's a worthy way to spend your time?
This reminds me of a headline that you'd see on some these like vegas influencers where like uh you heard of uh what is it bluff and bob you heard of him
vegas matt you go on their youtube channel and they're like i i did a uh is it they're like i
turned a thousand into fifty thousand just like gambling on black every time or on Baccarat, blackjack, like double
down 10 times on blackjack and you go nuts.
What is it?
Two to the 10th power.
That's crazy.
Yeah.
Yeah, it is.
Like this is, this is even, so this, this blew up on, in prediction market Twitter,
he got, last time I checked, he was on 10,000 followers.
He was probably on 5,000 before it blew up.
Now he's on 17K.
So he's gained like 7,000 plus or probably 10,000 plus real followers
from running this.
So if he was doing it as an attention farming scheme,
it worked extremely, extremely well.
Because, like, the proof is on-chain.
Sure, there's data against it.
But even here it's saying read it out in context that they thought users might want to know.
This user is misrepresenting his progress.
So, like, Xnotes is even saying, okay, guys, this is a bit sus,
but this is the kind of content that's getting huge.
It doesn't matter how many tries it took him, he still did it.
Yeah, I think there's, well, I mean, is he profitable is the question.
Like, is he profitable or does he have another account
that's taking the no for all of these trades and then he's
delta neutral but he's got a track record
that shows
I'm a genius
if I were him I probably would have
do some sort of delta neutral
pitch
like you said it's an attention
part
he was successful
with harvesting that many eyeballs.
Real people, right?
That's cool. Yeah. I respect it.
I saw this.
I've been seeing this other account that just posts and it's like a lie.
They're doing the 1% market, but I think they're reversing the timeline.
So they're posting it a day or two days after the event happens,
but there's a situation where Melania said,
is cool, and then people heard school.
It went up to 99 um school and then a couple people bought the the
one percent and it resolved to the one percent they were made 100x um but then there's now then
there's a clip of someone buying the one percent at uh putting like 10k in the one percent and then
acting like the next clips of like oh he's driving driving in lambo or
whatever but what i think they're doing is they um making the clip after the glitch yeah and acting
like they hit the glitch so content is just it's an absolute mess these days you don't know anything
that's true it's just like oh this is kind of fun to watch or I'm going to watch something else.
You got to let them cook with it, I guess, right?
Got to let them cook.
Yeah, there's, I don't know.
I think by the time you read about it, right, there's nothing new about this.
By the time you read about it, you can't go make money.
Yeah. This one was interesting.
Whatever happened with this one?
Did it resolve this?
We won.
We won.
I cashed out at 180% and 160% on the two-k.
But there were like 10 bucks trades.
So it's not so exciting
but the same thing
is happening
again so this is obviously where there's
a jump for a second it becomes
a top one and then it jumps back down
and then the number
I've realized like why this
market is
so mispriced mispriced I realize like why this, why this market is, um,
so mispriced, mispriced.
It's just because there's, there's no liquidity, like total trading volume is,
it's 21 K. So I saw this market open the other day and it's like, okay, cool. Free cash at 20, 24% and buy. And then it's it's like you can you can make decent money um
in relative terms but it's it's not where the the big money is playing so
yeah i'm gonna keep i'm probably gonna trade this next week when it when it switches back or
or closer to the close to the day and but I like these I like these
markets the other market that I thought was quite interesting is where is it I'm
not gonna be able to find this Joe I think this is the this is the end of our
our chat on this if you got anything else you want to you want to dive into we can have the last
the last thing that i'll say i think that strategy that you made the 180 on i feel like that's
that's going to be the bread and butter of what the profit brain can actually do.
And that's why, obviously, if people want to provide liquidity into profit
and profit, offering the profit, then that's totally going to happen.
That's going to be great.
Or if you want to bet against it because you think you're smarter than AI,
then that's going to be a beautiful thing.
But I think the main value proposition from where I'm sitting here is that it's
still a lot of markets that don't make a lot of sense.
That asymmetry is where there's a lot of money on the table.
I'm a hundred percent with you. Yeah. Maybe, maybe last point to touch,
touch on this. I just looked at two markets um versus what
the profit is saying and so so for will trump acquire greenland before 2027 and probably market
saying that there's a 20 chance and profit saying that there's a 4.5 chance so thinking about i guess a 15 15.5 gap um trying to think of like why why this is the case and then
what i came up with is is like humans are betting on trump and they're stimulated by the media
super emotional there's just been this maduro kidnapping people are like oh trump can take
over the world tomorrow he's definitely gonna quite to acquire Greenland. There's no chance. It's 20%.
That's cheap.
So there's just this crazy emotional state.
I also don't think people fully know what's politically possible and how politics works
on a deeper level.
What does it mean if Trump acquires Greenland?
Does that destroy the whole world political order
that's been set up over the last 50, 60 years?
Does that all crumble?
Would Trump risk that?
I don't think those are any things
that people are considering fully.
And then also just how...
I would add...
The only thing I would add is, yeah, I think humans think wishfully.
And I think there's a lot of people that want that to happen.
And so they're going to actually put a premium on the chance of that reality collapsing.
Versus LLMs have a lot of baked in biases and they understand the rules of the game,
but Trump plays outside of the rules of the game.
So I think you have the humans that are a little bit too liberal with how they think about the future,
and then the robot is a little bit too conservative with how it thinks about the future. And then the robot is a little bit too conservative with how it thinks about the future.
So I would say that both of those factors
are going to explain that delta in this case,
whether that 15%.
But I think this is a great opportunity
to give people a hedge mechanism
where they can buy a yes and a no
and have a positive EV bet.
Yeah, yeah.
The other, I think it's also just,
but this is looking at a different market now.
So Israel strikes around by 31st of January, 2026,
which is in a couple of days.
The market, party market saying 18% chance,
profit saying 20, 26% chance.
So this is the opposite of previously.
Like over here, profit saying there's a lower chance.
And over here with Israel, profit saying there's a higher chance.
I was thinking that it's almost, you would expect one to sort of use things more positively consistently than
than another and i wonder if if we did 100 markets if there would be like oh profit views things 60
more optimistically or or not but the the thinking here is like people maybe people don't want war, but my core assumption was the media that LLMs take in, they can read every language.
So they can read what's happening in Iran, they can read what's happening in Israel.
citizens who are reading whatever's being streamed directly to them um which is a really biased set
of information so i think with a with a market like this like the the gap is a lot closer um
it's probably an easier case to make that the ai is predicting a more likely uh scenario because
someone's read four articles and watched a couple YouTube videos with Americans speaking about like Middle East politics is not really the same as someone who can read Israeli and read Hebrew and read, I don't even know what language they're speaking around.
read. I don't even know what language they're speaking around.
It's a great point. And I would even
might even argue that the average person that's placing a bet
on the Israel-Iran conflict probably has not
read four articles, right? They're just going with their gut. They're going
with the sentiment of they saw
the president say something stupid or they saw you know they
heard one of their jewish friends say something stupid or whatever and then they like make
they make a gut decision based on that i would say i would say what is going to be very interesting
and i want us to figure out a way to incentivize users to provide this. But how cool is it going to be if not only do we collect information about specific...
If a user puts in...
If a user places a bet against the property, I want to know why.
Why do you say yes?
Why do you say no?
What is your rationale?
Right?
Because in this case, if you're like... To your point, if you place a bet on yes, you say, because I read four articles.
Because I saw some headlines that point to the fact that this reality was going to exist.
Versus if the person's like, it's my gut feeling.
Or the rationale is that, oh, no, Trump just took this guy out of office.
He's probably going to take
green light too i want to know how people think about placing these things it's called mouth money
i'm i'm with you on that but it sort of comes down to what how can you incentivize a user to
take time and energy to give you a correct response. Because if I, let's say you say no trading fees,
if you provide a two sentence response,
then I'm going to say,
okay, cool.
I get my, my trade fee.
But if it's like,
I don't know if your response is,
stands out or hits a certain threshold of like new information,
then, then potentially we can, stands out or hits a certain threshold of new information,
then potentially we can give some
sort of kickback for users
in the future. A boost.
Yeah, a boost.
edge or something. I don't know.
We'll figure that out. I just think
that as part of this,
at the end of the day, what this is
hopefully going to be is a loss leader. It's the slot mean at the end of the day what this is hopefully going to be as a
loss leader right it's the it's the slot machine at the in the lobby at the casino they get people
in the door in a new engaging game that they can play and eventually it'll be a p2p marketplace
but during that process i really want to i think we could have first to figure out how to do that
but that's uh was it was just thinking like after seeing the um like after
seeing what that what that trader did with 1k to 3 mo it's like maybe we should just keep profit as
proprietary um and and fully fully test out if we can if we can have an edge on the market before just letting anyone engage with it.
Or we let people engage, we see first, and then we can decide.
Let's try it.
Yeah, let's check it out.
Andre's going to be working on it very soon here.
He's going to start the script probably as soon as tomorrow.
He's going to start scraping the different markets from Polly and Kulshi.
Don't even start
with me on the podcast.
I don't want to hear it.
Joey, this is funny.
They launched
a $3 million
voted public
hackathon.
They've been silent
they've been like really really silent or what like what was it that was um what's pump doing
meme coins are dead and then what are they raised like a billion billion dollars and they're like
okay cool we're gonna we're gonna launch to three million dollar public hackathon where everyone is hacking must launch a coin on pump dot com
so they're they're especially like a
Bounty system to get people more people not launching coins. I don't know. I just I saw this and I was like
It's a little bit upset because I'm
Really thought pump could could have done something cool. They really could have done something cool.
It's like an ex-girl.
They did do something cool.
It's like an ex-girlfriend.
You gotta just sometimes you gotta let her go.
You don't look at it.
I miss Pump.
Okay, sweet.
Cool, Joey.
Good checking.
Good checking in.
I think I'm going to end the live stream.
Bye, everybody.
Bye, everyone.
