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Prospero.ai Stock Market LIVE | Apr. 2, 2025
Recorded: April 2, 2025 Duration: 1:09:45Space Recording
Short Summary
Key developments include Elon Musk's departure from the Doge team, Amazon's launch of Kuiper Broadband, significant fluctuations in Newsmax's market value, and OpenAI's substantial fundraising effort. Bitcoin and several Mag 7 stocks show growth, while Meta and Google experience declines.
Full Transcription
Hello, everyone. Checking back in Prospero AI Stock Market Livestream. Welcome in here today,
everybody. It is Liberation Day. The April 2nd date is finally here, so we will get our tariff
final news today. Trump is set to speak at 4 p.m., so just after the closing bell. The markets looked
like they were running up in anticipation of this event today, but now they're kind of giving back
the gains we had.
Everything's coming back to the flatline.
We are still green across the board, but the QQQ is up one-fifth of a percent.
SPY is up one-tenth of a percent.
Dow Jones is as well.
The Russell is actually the leader on the day, up almost one percent right now.
So everything is green across the board.
VIX is in the red, but we are
drifting back lower from our highs of the day. Let's check in on Prospero SPY and QQQ net option
sentiment, which I had been looking at earlier. And the SPY was actually above the QQQ, which
was a little surprising to see. So we have to question George about that once he gets in the stream today.
And looking at the SPY now, it is at 45 in net option sentiment, which is a big switch from the low single digits and zeros it's been reading most recently.
And we're looking at the QQQ now, which is at 16.
So very odd switch up we're seeing ahead of our tariff news. There has been some leaks,
but I don't think anything is confirmed as of the levels right now and whether it'll be a blanket tariff to all countries or if it's going to be case by case. But we'll find out soon enough,
and it's interesting to see that this isn't happening while the stock market is open. And
I want to ask George if that's on purpose, that they purposely did happening while the stock market is open. And I want to ask George if
that's on purpose, that they purposely did this after the market would be closed. So maybe it
could digest things better overnight. Then we're going to get into some stock specific stories.
We have OpenAI updating the world on their weekly active users. They've just crossed half a billion,
so growing very much so, up from February a lot.
I'm wondering if this is actually good or bad for Microsoft, being that OpenAI is currently unprofitable.
And the more they grow, I'm not sure if it's actually the more they make or if they're running everything unprofitably right now.
It's actually going to need them to raise more money, which I think I just saw a story about them raising even more funds from SoftBank. So what does that mean for Microsoft,
the fact that OpenAI continues to grow and seemingly kicked into another gear in the past
month in terms of growth? Then we have TKO Stock buddying up with Meta, signing a deal for Meta to help them engage fans, become their AI Glass
partner, just kind of interlocking the businesses together after Dana White joined the board of
Meta. It looks like Mark Zuckerberg and Meta is kind of returning the favor. So those two companies
are going to work together. But we've covered the business of sports on this live stream a lot,
but we've never really talked
about TKO stock. And I'm wondering if it looks good to George, WWE and UFC all under one roof.
How does that look as an investment now? Then we have to obviously cover our Tesla,
our like standing segment on every stream. It seems like. There's just so much news. We got Q1 deliveries today, this morning,
which sent the stock lower.
But then an announcement came out that Elon Musk
is planning to leave the Doge team in the coming weeks.
And that sent the stock a lot higher.
I think it's up about 5% currently right now on the day.
So reacting to the deliveries numbers first, which missed,
and then the Elon Musk news. I don't know if you guys missed it, but there was a smaller stock that
went public. It actually wasn't through a traditional IPO. It went public through
something called a Reg A+. It's called Newsmax. Let's check in on the shares it had an insane move yesterday and it followed that up with an
insane move move today uh yesterday was green today is red let's see currently down 75 percent
right now after ripping i believe it was up like over 200 percent yesterday at one point
uh it went public at ten dollars per share and it crossed $200 yesterday. So
absolutely insane move. Hopefully George has some good information, good details can break it down
for us why that stock was able to rip insanely. I saw at one point yesterday, it had a larger
market cap than Warner Bros. I think it was like $28 billion. So very, very wild move there. I think
it was from a lack of liquidity in shares, if what I read was correct, where there was some kind of
lockup because it wasn't a traditional IPO. But very, very strange to see that move yesterday.
And then we have a couple updates on Amazon. So we've been wanting to get to this Amazon AI
story about their acquisition of One Medical, how that's looking now with all of their AI features coming to market.
They acquired that company for $3.9 billion in 2022.
And it's funny enough because the topic from this story was going to be like, does this have the potential to be the best acquisition of all time? I think we were going to talk about YouTube too in that segment,
but now it came out today that Amazon is one of the bidders for TikTok,
along with, which was surprising to me, along with Apple,
which I had never heard in that category before.
And also, hello, George, welcome to stream.
Also Oracle, which we've heard before.
But so now we get to include that whole discussion with this one health story or one medical story.
The updates we've gotten on the TikTok looks like Amazon, Apple, and Oracle are the three contenders right now.
And the deadline is April 5th.
And Trump was also briefed or was set to be briefed on all of this today. So it seems
like we're going to get some news probably before the week is over about whether this is going to
be extended or any of those companies are going to be chosen. And then we have one final story
on Amazon. They are launching a competitor to Starlink. It's called Kuiper Broadband. So I'm
not only wondering how this is going to
affect Starlink, but a lot of the space stocks that we also follow like Rocket Lab and ASTS,
if this competition from Amazon is concerning for those companies. But George, how are you feeling
on Liberation Day, my friend? I saw the SPY and QQQ net options sentiment are kind of drifting
higher. Market was front running what we're going to get and QQQ net option sentiment are kind of drifting higher.
Market was front running what we're going to get a little bit today, but it's kind of drifting
lower now. So help us through what we're seeing today. What are your thoughts currently?
I mean, it's like in case we needed more information about how crazy this year is,
we now have SPY net option sentiment at 40 and QQQ at seven. So I was even like looking,
I added a real estate stock and a consumer cyclical stock today. Because that even put
me out of my comfort zone when I've been like risk on this year, I've like hammered like the
tech, like primarily tech, but large cap growth names that are just always
looking the best in our signals. But when I saw that, I took a bit of a different approach
than that. And of course, right when, I mean, it's with the market responding
like this, you know, you might say that there's going to be good news coming. But A, at this
point, I don't think we can be that sure at all what this administration is going to do. I don't think anyone really knows until it happens. Otherwise, we would have seen a more prepared market for all
of these tariff announcements that have sent things kind of haywire. But the QQQ net option sentiment definitely concerns me being that low and that like that it's kind of disjointed.
But, you know, as we've seen in the past, that could be a function of the fact that people are kind of loading up more on tech names, tech options on the stock level.
And then they're hedging it on the QQQ level because they're taking on more
risk that way. But it's very hard to tell with this market. And I'm pretty much positioning
myself to be pretty even long short heading into the announcement as a result.
Do you have any thoughts on the timing of this meeting? I thought it might be noteworthy,
the fact that it was scheduled to take place at 4 p.m. right as the market's closing.
I just don't know whether that's, you know, so the market digests it positively or negatively,
or if that was planned, or if it's just happenstance. Do you think there's any coordination
there? I mean, I think these days with like 24 hour trading and, you know, after like, I don't, I don't think when you announce something makes that much of a different, it's going to kind of like difference. It's going to kind of work itself out.
think I don't think there's too much. I don't think there's too much to read into it. I mean,
the only thing that I can think of is perhaps doing it later. If it's like bad news, it,
you know, it's it's going to be, you know, night in Europe. I don't think I don't think that's a
very good time. I think it's still like I think it's still like early morning in Asia.
So maybe that gets you some extra time.
And so I saw a couple news blurbs come out today,
but it didn't seem like anything was set in stone.
Some things I saw were that the tariffs that are going to be
placed today are kind of the cap and they'll only be able to, they won't ever be increased. They'll
only be lowered, if anything. I saw that it's still, the door's still open that it's going to
be like a case by case basis of whether the tariffs are like 10, 15 or 20%, not just a blanket 20.
So I think that's kind of creeping in some hope for investors,
where maybe now if we get a blanket 20, it's going to be actually bearish again, where
as before these stories and before the market today, maybe that was being more so priced in,
and now it'll be more disappointed. Do you have any read on how you think the reaction will be?
I mean, I think because of all of the like reciprocal tariffs
talk, I don't think like, I think there could be a positive reaction initially, but I'm not
necessarily expecting, you know, that strong of a reaction unless it's like, unless it really
surprises versus expectations. I think it really depends on how, you know,
other countries respond. And, you know, one of the things we're seeing, it's not just like
reciprocal tariffs, like something that I like I've had my eye on is that there are a fair amount
of countries now selling us debt, like Japan, especially, has kind of made headlines doing
that. And that, you know, that ultimately is going to harm the dollar, which doesn't really,
you know, it doesn't really help in terms of like the trade imbalance that we're, you know,
that we're trying to do better with.
I mean, in some senses, it might help if it essentially lowers the cost of the goods
that we're exporting,
but I'm more worried about the imports
and that relative cost basis
and those kinds of transfers.
Because when you talk about when,
for example, I've been doing a deep dive on Tesla. For anyone that's curious, I'm doing a space
with whole Mars blog tomorrow where we talk about the ins and outs of Tesla. So I've been doing a
lot of research on Tesla. And when I did the research, people were kind of saying that, yeah, like the tariffs would help the domestic sales, but the inputs
to building the cars could end up doing a lot to offset that. So that's where I'd be worried about
the dollar until we are, you know, if we're more of a net exporter, which we very much are not
right now, then a weaker dollar can help
because it's relatively discounted.
But anyway, not to go too far down the rabbit hole, I think people should see, you kind
of have to look at these things outside of just like, are there tariffs back?
Because if like other economic warfare takes place, then it might escalate. And I don't
think, you know, economic warfare tends to be bad for all parties involved, which is why if, you
know, Europe and Asia and, you know, Mexico and Canada, if a number of people are teaming up on
us, that's especially bad. Because it kind of is a function of, you can kind of look at it like
sanctions where it's like the more countries are kind of trying to harm your economy, the more
that's going to kind of have synergistic effects against you. Which also relatively, if we have
like a lot more people ganging up on us, it also, you know, is going
to hurt us relatively more than we can hurt countries that are only getting, you know,
economic warfare back from us and not other countries. So it's all worth watching. And I
think the long and the short of it is, it's very hard to react to these things in moments because we know like a lot of this for the Trump
administration is about, it's not about the tariffs as much as just like trying to get the
kind of, you know, trade deals or getting something from, you know, these countries
that we're putting tariffs into, that's where the reciprocal tariffs get scary, right? Because it's
not just about us wanting to put a 20% tariff on Mexico or Canada. It's actually about us wanting to put that on them so they come to
the negotiating table and they kind of give us specific concessions that we're looking for. So
if that's the goal and they escalate, it kind of means we will escalate further because it's not
necessarily about the tariffs as much as it's about the message.
It is interesting that there's been so much weakness in the markets and it's all kind of been in the hypothetical as till now, because there's been no tariffs actually in place until
I think tonight at midnight they go into effect. And it's, I mean, obviously from the market's
reaction and a lot of the news coverage, everybody's pretty negative on the situation.
But the Trump administration has to at least have some kind of hypothesis of their own.
Can we at least, even if maybe you don't think it's probable or not the most likely outcome, can we at least give their side what could be a bullish outcome of this?
what could be a bullish outcome of this? Even if it is like you were saying, maybe countries don't
team up and they actually react to the tariffs in a way that Trump would want. Is there anything,
any kind of bullish case we could give to these? Yeah. I mean, the thing that I think makes the um is that and we saw this in his first term that trump's real target is china and what he
might be trying to do is he might be trying to um you know have like mexico and canada and the
european countries and you know maybe russia you know, all kind of create a tougher economic
situation for China because they're really like, I think it's especially relevant seeing, you know,
deep seek. And, you know, I think one of the things, you know, we've been researching BYD
and all the cool things that they're doing, like, and we've been talking about it on the stream,
obviously, like China is in a position where
they could potentially, they've always been able to beat on price, but they might be able to beat
on price and quality. So that is probably the best outcome. And it could be what the Trump
administration is trying to accomplish. They could just be kind of placing all these other tariffs
in a way, like as a, a as a threat it'd be like oh
well if you want to remove we can all just kind of tariff china i think that that that is the biggest
um upside because china has become a real threat arguably like a stronger economy stronger
technology industry than us and if we're going to do something and the world
is going to do something on a trade imbalance, we're going to have to work together. Now,
to offer a counterpoint to that upside, I'm not sure. And I guess we'll have to see, but I'm not
sure picking fights with other countries that you want to ultimately take your side in a larger
trade war um is the right way to go about it but you know we don't know the right or wrong way to
go about it until that plays out but i definitely think that's the upside right we enter into kind of like a broad multi-country kind of trade war where it's like the rest of the world against China.
I think that's the best outcome for our economy and a lot of economies probably.
So I saw an update from OpenAI on their weekly active users, and it has crossed half a billion
weekly active users.
So that is up from 400 million in February.
So over 20% growth, which I was surprised to see just for the month of March.
A couple of thoughts on this story.
So OpenAI, I believe, is running unprofitably right now, just trying to grow.
So I'm wondering if that intense growth is actually
good or bad for Microsoft. The fact that maybe that'll hurt their earnings, or I don't know how
it would hurt them. But the fact that OpenAI is unprofitable currently growing that much,
I don't know if it'll affect Microsoft in any way. And another thought, I mean, once you have 500
million active users, like that's such a large user base, have they won this race? How could
anybody catch up? It's almost like, you know, they won this race how could anybody catch up it's almost like you know they're so big who could catch them i feel like they are the facebook of
the ai large language model type of thing uh so how do you feel about those two thoughts on it
yeah i mean i guess first of all i'd wonder what they're doing
what they're doing in the last few months that's increasing their I could answer that for you quickly they came out with they came out with some new feature where you
could like make an image into like a live little clip that was very popular oh yeah I was at
someone's birthday party um this weekend and they were just like constantly playing around with that
um yeah that was okay i i get that now
that's that's a cool that's a cool feature um that's a lot of users but i think your point
about the cost is a very important one right because it's like, like scaling is super important, but the ultimate cost is more important, right?
If ultimately like open AI is not profitable, but let's just say for argument's sake to run these,
they're charging like the free, like actually really cost them more like $20 a month. And the
$20 a month thing more costs them like $50 a month. Right. And then you have potentially deep seek, right.
That is coming in at lower price points.
I don't think people are so loyal to open AI or, or anything, um, where, uh,
cost is not going to be an issue.
And I would say the other thing is a lot of people, and we've talked about this, a lot
of people have just been doing some research on OpenAI and their expensive agent-based things.
And a lot of people that I talk to actually have said that they view Anthropic Cloud as a better product, right? So it's possible just like they have an early
mover advantage, but typically the early morning, early mover advantage isn't going to last unless
you have, you can continue to win on, you know, kind of quality and price, or at least most of
one. Um, but there are switching costs so
people that are used to it like it could be there but like yeah i think i think things coming out of
china um are a threat there uh and i think why i am sticky with the price right is it is microsoft
right and microsoft has a way of annoying people with their monetization. They're also pretty good at it.
But like where you kind of have, say, like Microsoft Word, where you're kind of like
you buy a PC and you kind of have to use it or you work in an office and you kind of have
to use it or sell or whatever.
I don't think this is the same type of product.
And then you kind of have the added issue of what the real cost is, right?
Because like, how many users would you use meta Facebook as an example?
How many users would they lose if they started charging $5 a month or $10 a month for it?
So people can be pretty price sensitive to these things.
Again, I don't
think it's equivalent. But I think before we really know where OpenAI is positioned as a product,
I think we really have to know what their long term, what the cost is going to be eventually for
it. Well, that is a really good point, though,
because I feel if OpenAI had to increase their prices, there's so many competitors,
like you're saying, like Claude and Anthropic, that people would just switch. But if Facebook
started charging something, there's nowhere to go because Facebook basically owns all social
media. There's TikTok and then all of the Facebook apps. I mean, YouTube is like not really the same as the other social media stuff and the other Snapchat. Like
there's no competition really. So I think that is a difference between probably AI and social media
that you're highlighting there. But I'm, I'm even saying, I'm making an additional point. I'm saying
that like, even with that, I think people would switch from meta if there was a charge.
And I think it's the free version that is particularly vulnerable, right?
If there was no more free version of ChatGPT and you could access these other LLMs for free, I think a lot of people would switch. that can cause any division between Microsoft and open AI, the leadership at each,
if they have different ideas of like when it's time to go focus on profitability more,
grow more,
all those things.
Or do you think,
I mean,
I think Microsoft led by study and Adele is pretty well-rounded team.
So maybe they'll keep that all behind closed doors,
even if there is.
Yeah.
I mean,
I think,
I think they're going to be at odds um but ultimately companies have to become
profitable right like there's there's a side where like i think open ai probably wants to
keep it free for as long as possible but there's another side where like eventually whoever is funding you is going to say um i need to see some profits
right and the longer you delay that you know i'd say the more kind of pressure you are at
to profit immediately right if you do it before your investors are kind of like
beating down the door to have you charge for it, you probably have more time to ramp out,
work out the kinks and practicing. Whereas if you like drag your feet and then finally do it,
it doesn't do well, that might have your funding cut, you know, very quickly. But
on the other side, you could say they just brought in another $50 billion, right? The largest
in another $50 billion, the largest private raise. So when you can fundraise that easily,
there's certainly an argument to say, keep it free. We're in a different era where actually
a lot of investors are demanding profitability earlier. But if you're lucky enough that you
have the kind of tech where you don't
want to, it's certainly easiest to scale your user base if you have a free product that's a
good quality like OpenAI has. So I want to spin now to TKO and Meta. Just a little while back,
Dana White, the president and in charge of the UFC, joined the Meta board. And
it seems like they're kind of also interconnecting the other way now. So they announced a multi-year
deal. Meta will leverage its technologies, deliver new engagement for UFC fans globally.
They became like the AI glasses partner of the UFC. How do you feel about TKO stock? They have WWE and UFC all under one roof.
We've talked about kind of the benefits of, you know, the business of sports before, but there's really kind of a lack of ways to invest in it if you're an everyday person.
So TKO being a public company, it's stock.
It looks pretty good.
It's had a good little run in the
past year or so. What do you think about it? Oh, we don't have TKO in Prospero, unfortunately.
We'll have to put that on the list to add. I mean, Metastock isn't responding very well to it.
And I kind of take the market as a barometer.
This feels like something that was designed
to like make a headline and help the companies.
I don't know how TKO is doing today.
I'm taking a quick look.
No, it's doing better than Meta.
So maybe it's viewed as better like distribution
for them it's not working for it's not really working um for meta but on these types of things
um i think you kind of have to see how it goes
are you surprised at all i'm looking at tko's chart now up 82 percent in the last year
up 360 in the past five years um i don't know what your thoughts are like the business of fighting
uh it seems like it's very international since like it's like the one universal language all
around the world unfortunately but um any thoughts on it in the landscape of, like, NBA, NFL, UFC, WWE?
Like, do you think it's, you know, it's been up a lot in the last, like, years?
Is it all priced in now?
Or do you think you could see growth here in the foreseeable future?
I mean, I think there's still growth.
I think, like, the violent violent sports are like uh growing more
internationally um i think for me it's it's always interesting i mean if you think back like to the
gladiators like the tale like people wanting to watch violence is like a tale as old as time. Um, but, uh, I think football is kind of like where I
cap out on, on like the violence. There's at least like an illusion. I don't, I don't really
like to just watch people just like beat each other up. It's kind of, it's, it's pretty brutal.
Um, I mean, I guess football is pretty brutal too.
But no, I mean, I think there's a demand for that.
And I think there was a term in Rome called bread and circus.
And it basically just meant that you could have a pretty wealthy class that had like much better rights,
everything like that.
But as long as you like kept the, like the poor's fed and entertained, the circus part
was like the Coliseum, like you'd be good, but you had to like keep that like kind of
bread and circus balance.
Um, and I think part of what the demand for this is like when we see the wealth disparity grow
and like i think you know whatever it is like suppressed aggression or like want like like
for whatever reason i think as people get um more displeased with like the wealth disparity the way like upper classes are versus lower
classes for some reason the tale as old as time you know exposing them to violence um helps and
maybe you know maybe it's just the simplest answer which is just like hey like you could
look at these people like beating the shit out of each other and being like well you know my life's at least better than this where i i don't have to like uh i don't have
to like fight to make money although they do make a lot of money i'm sure for some people um that's
attractive but like for me especially like seeing like the old boxers and the way they are like when
they're you know a lot of wrestlers like die early i think that's like the stare like i think that's probably just as much the steroids as the
as the wrestling um but yeah it's a pretty it's all it's all pretty brutal but yeah like
i i definitely don't see like the wealth disparity thing getting better anytime soon.
So perhaps that's an argument that TKO has a lot more room to go up.
I'm happy you mentioned that point because we have,
that's what our short is about coming out at four o'clock today.
So we've had over 1600 people in here. I hope you all check that out.
It's going to be all across our social. So check that out later. But you say you stop at football,
but I bet you would have watched the Mark Zuckerberg versus Elon fight
if that ever happened.
Yeah.
I mean, for a specific reason,
what I'm talking about,
like what I don't really like about it
is the idea that, you know,
people have to fight each other for a living, right?
Like Elon and Mark
do not have to fight each other by any means. Like, like prideful rich
people, I'll watch fight all day long. I just don't like the idea of, you know, someone having,
you know, not better options to make money than basically just like taking years and years
off their lives. I think I read an interesting stat. It was something
like, I don't remember it was the SATs or it was something like, I think if you had, um,
if you had like a concussion in your teen years, like, I think you were like 50, 15% more likely
to drop out or like something like, I don't know. It was a crazy, it was a crazy stat. So yeah, I think,
I think making things interesting for people to ultimately just like completely like ruin their
brains by getting, you know, hit or, you know, or their bodies or whatever.
I don't love and I struggle with that in football because it's not, it's not really much better than, than boxing. But, you know, football was part of my childhood. So I can't really,
you know, my family all watches it together. I can't. I can't let it go. I guess that's a compromise of my morals.
But, you know, family ties are a pretty strong argument.
So I want to jump into Tesla now because it's been a tale of two stories today.
The Q1 deliveries came out in the pre-market and the stock was down.
They came in at $336,000, missing the estimate of $390,000.
So let's first react to that.
Then we're going to get into the Musk story of him stepping away from Doge.
But first, the deliveries.
How did that make you feel this morning, seeing the stop drop?
Yeah.
One of the things that I got from like my Tesla deep dive.
Other than the very interesting tweet
that shows like his Elon Musk tweet schedule
where it's just like he's barely sleeping.
It's crazy.
Google it.
I think it was shared on Reddit or something.
But like, yeah, that man is spread very thin. I think,
I think leaving Doge is going to be good for him. But the other interesting thing was,
the more I dug in, I was like, eyeballing the sales declines in different countries and what
and what they represented.
they represented. And then I was like, looking at the deliveries. And I was like, I was like,
And then I was like looking at the deliveries
and I was like, I think this delivery number
is gonna be disappointing.
I'm on record as saying that
if anyone wants to see the proof.
It wasn't an email as I was prepping for this space tomorrow.
But I think what we saw is pretty bullish for Tesla, because I think what we saw is that
Wall Street was actually forecasting lower. That's the only explanation for what happened today.
When I say Wall Street, I mean funds. Sometimes analysts can be very slow. They were moving down their delivery estimates. But analysts are notoriously slow to adapt. And obviously we saw that. But basically the only explanation for what we saw today is that, you know, other institutions or buy side institutions actually were expecting them to be lower.
actually were expecting them to be lower. Now, what I can't grok, I mean, the only thing that
makes sense, given everything, is that people are still expecting what we've expected. In terms of,
you know, favorable conditions for FSD, maybe even some orders for um the optimists coming in from the government because there's a lot of
rumbles that you know some of the automation that we're going to pursue is going to be in you know
with robots um that's that's one of the ways that we're going to like raise production um
which is just kind of hilarious it's a very like a it's a very uh um like kind of a modern globalist solution it's like
oh well we you know we don't produce anything oh maybe we should do robots it's like well i mean
you're not really solving a labor problem then you're just like you're just making cheaper goods
but you're kind of still over the people in your country um unless there's a solution that I haven't heard of, but robots
coming for more jobs is probably not going to be great for our job market unless they do the
dirtiest word in the government's mind, which is universal basic income. That's the only thing that
they could basically do to, I'd say, keep,
you know, things like unemployment, you know, or I guess, you know, satisfaction around
unemployment at reasonable levels if they convert to robots. So, I mean, basically the stat that
I'm working around to be like, okay, there has to be expectations around, um, around this,
around this because even before any of these boycotts, Tesla grew at 0.95% last year.
And the next highest was Amazon, I think at, well, here, let me actually pull it up
because it's interesting.
It's interesting.
So, yeah.
Oh, sorry.
The next highest was Apple at 2% and then Amazon at 10.99.
Yet Tesla has a PE of 139 and a forward PE of 100.
and a forward PE of 100.
And that's on the PE,
that's basically four to six times
the next highest PE for a Mag-7,
and three to five times higher on the forward PE,
which is kind of crazy to think about.
Like that contrast,
like the slowest growing company of the Mag7
is valued at a huge multiple. Typically what gets you at a huge multiple of the other companies
is that you're growing so fast that that's kind of built in to how people are valuing you or how
people are valuing the future. So it's a kind of crazy disj how people are valuing you or how people are valuing the future so it's a kind
of crazy disjointed valuation that we're seeing unless part of that is is an expectation of
revenue growth profits that aren't yet in the forecast and i think you know kind of some kind of government advantage self-driving cars um
taxis full full self-driving robots i think there has to be some of that being forecasted in to
support that kind of valuation multiple beyond the other mag 7. i don't know if you followed the events in Newsmax at all this past week, but it went public.
It wasn't through a traditional IPO.
It was through something called a Reg A+.
And it went public at $10.
And then yesterday, it crossed the $200 mark.
And it had a larger market cap than Warner Bros. at one point.
I think it capped out at like $27 or $28 billion.
And now it's down 80% today.
So the tables have turned.
Can you give any insights into why this happened or what's going on there?
Pretty crazy to see that insane volatility.
I don't even know what Newsmax is.
What is Newsmax?
The way I heard it talked about on CNc was it's a right-leaning like
television news station or broadcast something like that wow these like these like right-leaning
like stocks they're so volatile they can be so volatile like i don't think i like i don't think i've ever seen
a more volatile stock than djt and maybe newsmax will give it a run for its money wow that's like
such a peak and i think it's like i mean i think when you look at these stocks they're just like meme stocks on steroids right because when like when
it hits like the conservative mob it's like it's it's an ideology right as much as it is an investment
right and i don't think i've ever said that about another investment normally investments are investments and not and ideologies are ideologies um but you know it's got those same aspects of a meme stock right
where if you know that these kind of conservative stocks will attract like speculators um ideological
investors like you can feel safe especially if you're getting in early
that, um, that you're going to have backers, right? And the more that happens and the more
people see it, the more that kind of perpetuates. And that's what we see with any, um, meme stock,
but, you know, like any meme stock, that's how you can fall so hard, right? If people are speculating on something and they're speculating, like, I kind of want to see what the Google Finance sucks compared to Yahoo Finance.
I kind of want to see.
Do they give financials?
They should.
I think I heard something like it does 170 million in revenue.
Oh, you're not even going to tell me.
Yeah, I mean, that's a crazy multiple that it's trading at.
I have a question for you, though. Yeah, I mean, that's a crazy multiple that it's trading at.
I have a question for you, though.
It seems to me like the volume or whoever's buying it at the end of yesterday,
who in their right mind when a stock goes from a $1 billion market cap to 27 or 28,
even if you're the farthest right-leaning supporter,
how could you look at that stock and want to buy it? I don't understand
how the stock... It feels to me like it has to be institutionally driven somehow. That can't be
retail, can it? I mean, I think institutions are generally deciding what the top on these things
are, right? Because they'll start shorting increasingly buying put. So like, I do think it's institutions deciding what the top is. But I think basically,
what you're getting on that descent, right, is you have a lot of retail buying in, right,
then it starts to go down. And, and the smart people are just like, party's over,
we're gonna get It starts to go down
a lot more. And then as people lose more and more money, they also exit, right? You see those people
getting closer to the top as they're starting to lose like 50%, right? They're just like, no, I
can't. I can't do this because I think that's the other thing. These ideological investors,
a lot of them go in like pretty hard relative to their total
net worth. I've definitely heard people talking about going in or like putting a lot of their
portfolio in these, like letting it ride, right? So if you're doing that, same thing with meme
stocks, by the way. So if you're doing that, right, and all of a sudden you're talking about maybe, you know, 20, 50% of your net worth and you see that lose 50%, most people don't have the stomach to say it's going to keep going up.
So I think that's how it keeps going down. And then obviously, once it accelerates, basically, like it is, it's the same path, like it is when it's going up, you'll basically have institutions continue to buy,
continue to buy options until they start to get nervous
and feel like it turns
and then they go on the other way hard.
And it's the same thing.
Like the more momentum that it gets going down,
you see institutions shorting, shorting, shorting more.
And, you know, buying put options
until they have decided that, you know, it hits the floor.
So, I mean, this one, I wouldn't be surprised. Like, I don't
think we'll get it to yo-yo up as much, but I wouldn't be surprised if it hit a floor and then
there's buying again and, you know, you kind of see it go in smaller and smaller curves.
I know we're pushing on time here, but any thoughts on TikTok updates we got today? Amazon's
making a bid. Apple 11 has a bid. Oracle looks like it's still in the mix.
Any thoughts on any of those companies
buying TikTok?
Yeah, I mean,
it's kind of interesting.
If Amazon's involved,
like, you'd have to think
that they have enough money
to make a deal.
So if Amazon's involved,
I mean, same with apple but
i feel like apple is i think apple's a little more sick what app loving app loving oh app loving
wow yeah i know i was surprised too when i saw that interesting oh is that one of the reasons
why it's up today i'm not i mean i think tiktok's got to be way bigger market cap than Apple oven. But yeah,
that's certainly interesting. I saw a theory as to why Apple oven is a good fit. Supposedly,
they have a lot of business of theirs in China already. So maybe China would be very okay with that kind of transfer when it's
really not even leaving the country. Oh, yeah. And their tracking software would work very well.
I mean, I don't know if it's better than TikTok's existing delivery. I think they're pretty good.
But if you're going to make the case that maybe of TikTok, like maybe TikTok America doesn't get
the TikTok China algorithms, then a company like Apple, or obviously Amazon that has a lot
of that thing developed for targeting, I think would be super important. But yeah, like if
Amazon's involved, and a deal doesn't get done, I think that's it's it's because they
don't actually want to sell because Amazon, Amazon can pay.
And the thing about it is that's so huge for them because Amazon
doesn't, it kind of missed the social media game. And to be able
to serve up products on Tiktok would just be so valuable to
them that I like, like, it almost makes sense for them to give
a blank check. I totally agree. But it is time to do the switchover. We'll catch up with you,
George, on the other side in the model portfolio update. Everybody stick here with me. George will
be right back. We'll make live moves in the portfolio on this very,
very interesting day, taking a live look at the markets. It looks like they are now starting to
head higher into the close. Not sure if anything has been announced while we've been live. If you
guys know of anything, please let us know in the chat. But let's take a look at the SPY and QQQ net options sentiment in Prospero
to see if anything has changed since we've been live. Okay, I have the SPY pulled up. The SPY is
currently at 44 in net options sentiment and the QQQ is at 10. So we're continuing to see that
flippening, I'll call it, of the SPY and the QQQ.
Now we're in a bit of a role reversal here, although the QQQ hasn't even been that high as the SPY is right now.
Even when it was, I guess it spent some time in the 40s over the course of its trend, but typically been lower.
But yeah, we are seeing things kind of close out the day on a bullish note.
Let's take a look across the market, see what's going on.
Bitcoin, what is Bitcoin doing today?
Bitcoin is up two and a quarter percent today.
Let's see, how are all the MAG7 stocks doing?
Meta and Google are currently red.
It looks like all the other MAG7s are currently red. It looks like all the other Mag 7s are currently up.
Let's take a look at even Nvidia,
which I feel like has been one of the more struggling Mag 7 stocks as of late,
but they are up today.
About to have the 10-minute bell.
Usually things move on that,
but we'll wait for George to get back in here.
We're going to do live updates.
If you enjoyed the topics that we covered today, be sure to give us a like, whether you're watching
on YouTube or X. Likes are super appreciated. Subscribe on YouTube if you haven't yet or
follow on X. Like George said, he's going to be on a big live spaces tomorrow on Twitter.
I think it's called Whole Mars Catalog,
I believe, is the Twitter channel.
But it's a big channel that
Elon Musk has even retweeted
himself before, so maybe we'll
get Elon reacting to George tomorrow.
That would be insane, but we'll have
to wait and see.
But now we're just waiting for George to get back in here,
and then we'll be
on to updating the portfolio.
Let's see.
Let's see.
What else can I look up for you guys in the meantime?
Well, we'll see how the market reacts with the 10-minute.
Okay.
It's a little bit of a downward reaction to the 10-minute... Okay. It's a little bit of a downward reaction
to the 10-minute
until closing.
Are you guys going to switch over
right from our live stream to the
Trump press conference? Is anybody going to be
watching that closely today?
Or are you guys kind of just
ready to just have
it be behind you
and not going to pay attention?
I'm curious.
Let us know in the chat.
All right, here we go.
Can you hear me?
We got you.
Yep.
All right, I was getting everything set.
George, I feel like this is a weird day with, like,
such a big announcement maybe coming in, like, 10, 15 minutes.
Are you feeling like you don't want to make a lot of moves ahead of it?
Or is there no difference?
No, I'm feeling like what I said at the beginning, which is that I want to balance the portfolio.
That's my overarching goal, to be well hedged here.
D. Curtin said, I'm waiting for it to be behind us,
not really making any moves at all.
Yeah, I've had a pretty slow week myself.
Oh, look, I didn't realize that until, see,
that's why you have to look at it.
I didn't realize small caps
were the big winners today Продолжение следует... Consumer discretionary is making a comeback, but if you short-lived with the announcement,
we will be cautious around that.
Industrials looks like a good full opportunity.
Okay.
Always happen. damn I should have I didn't know I didn't know that coop was going to keep running
otherwise i would have it did so well but it's on a tear i should have i really should have added that it was looking so good in um momentum score i really should have added it.
Alright, so we have 31 longs.
I think we're definitely going to be taking on more longs.
RKT, Rocket Company is just acquiring everything.
Redfin, Mr. Cooper.
What?
I think it's because Rocket
Companies is acquiring them, right?
RKT.
And they just announced Redfin as well.
Damn, that is more
than I wanted to close out. We might be
making a lot of bull
ads today.
Hopefully we're getting out of shorts, too.
Because I know I have more. Oh, God.
Those ones that we added yesterday were not
getting killed on these shorts.
Oh, good. We exited that, so.
Not tons of work to do, good. We exited that. Not tons of work to do then. That is definitely helpful. it's like after all that we will actually be adding shorts Shorts. Interestingly enough.
Oh, that's the second day in a row I've seen spy.
Up there. Definitely want that.
Can I add SE I think?
No, I didn't add it.
Okay.
So definitely SE.
All right.
I think that's actually good because I'm getting rid of that
because we have? I don't want too many small caps. Maybe just one of these because it's so low.
All right, I feel good about this. Oh, and let me know what QQQ and SPY and an option sentiment are. Ready?
Yep.
Spy is 38, and QQQ is 13. What is it, Liberation Day?
That is what the kids are calling it, yes. all right we're gonna do that
and then we're going to pull up I'm just pulling up
on another thing to see if it goes crazy and then I want to our current positions.
Oh, is BJ a win?
Oh, that really turned on us.
We might keep it to be defensive all right tear
have six of it i kind of want to check out
oh damn might have missed the boat on this can you look up what what's going on with algt
this feels risky Oh, well, we probably should have even added it.
It's net options is down to 35.
Less than ideal.
Okay.
I think we definitely want to get out of we're going to cycle out of those names. And then what looks good? What's going on?
Okay, industrials has been doing well, so I don't know.
Aerospace in defense, and I don't know if I want to play with that.
Okay, we're just going to...
Oh, that's annoying.
Kind of like that.
I think Tel's pretty big.
Avnish Kavat from X just commented,
Hey guys, I just joined.
What do you think of the current SPX situation?
SPX?
Like, I think that's a levered SPY, right?
I mean, it's been pretty interesting with net options sentiment.
I mean, I'm more bullish on,
that's why I'm looking for a couple tech shorts right now,
because I'm more bullish on non-tech.
I'm cycling out of my tech into some non-tech.
And then the only other thing is I think I want one more short
to balance out my longs and shorts.
I kind of want to do beyond beyond but that just feels too risky um let's take a look at yeah if anyone's watching let me know if anything goes crazy with SPY.
I want to look at sectors.
Anything that looked good to target.
Nothing in particular. A lot of industrials
oh i kind of like ALKS. Yes.
Yeah. All right. That's all my moves. All right, then we exit.
What was the last one?
All right. all right i think that is all the moves any other questions there was just a follow-up from avnish do you think spx is bearish currently i looked it up i
think it's just the s&p 500 index like the spy SPY, same thing. Yeah, no, I mean, I think, I mean, it's showing bullish in net option sentiment.
I mean, I'm a little nervous with anytime I see a big divergence in QQQ and SPY net option sentiment,
it does make me nervous.
But it certainly looks,
it certainly looks bullish.
George,
one last time.
What,
what time are you going on that spaces tomorrow?
four o'clock.
I think,
yeah,
if you look at,
if you look at my account or whole Mars blog,
we will be starting.
All right.
So everybody tune into that. into that I see one more
comment actually from a niche ES ever source energy let's look at yes
hopefully it's in prospero it is I got it up
Prospero. It is.
I got it up.
Nice technical
flow. Good net
option sentiment.
And the technicals
look pretty good
on it. I'm just pulling up the charts.
I mean, this is the kind of thing
that I would say, if you
have conviction on this, the Prospero signals can verify that.
But, oh, I don't think it's.
Yeah, I wasn't going to stop you, but he said it's actually futures of SPX.
Yeah.
Yeah.
Yeah, I mean, I think that's, I mean, I think we view those pretty similarly to, we view those pretty similarly to SPY, that it looks bullish.
But the low QQQ net option sentiment, like gives us caution.
But I mean, it's been in a really bullish trend in terms of net option sentiment.
I would definitely prefer to own SPY over QQQ.
And it showing up in momentum score,
which we just saw,
is the first time I've ever seen it
on the bull side of momentum score.
So that's a pretty interesting signal in and of itself.
I think that should be it for today.
So everybody remember 4 PM tomorrow, George will be live on spaces. We'll be back here Monday,
11 AM on our live stream. But until then, we'll see what comes out of the big announcements today,
but best of luck, everyone. See you all. Bye.
