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Prospero.ai Stock Market LIVE | Apr. 7, 2025
Recorded: April 7, 2025 Duration: 1:26:28Space Recording
Short Summary
In a volatile market, Amazon's upcoming launch of its broadband satellite project Kuiper aims to challenge Starlink, while Janover's pivot to Solana has sparked a 385% stock surge. Additionally, Jaguar Land Rover's pause on US shipments signals potential shifts in international trade strategies, as investors question the sustainability of tech valuations amid recent market trends.
Full Transcription
Good morning, everyone. Welcome back to the Prospero AI Stock Market live streams. We
have so much to discuss. Obviously, the market is going crazy. Last time we were live was
Wednesday just before the tariff announcement. And then the S&P and the QQQ saw their biggest
two-day pullback since the COVID crash of 2020. And we were opening down lower today. There was a headline
that Trump will consider pausing tariffs for 90 days, but that's since been refuted. But the market
has been able to go green. So at least we're seeing a little bit of buying the dip going on
this morning. The VIX peak at just over 60. and the market was looking pretty rough in the pre-market
this morning.
So a lot to discuss in this market pullback, where it ranks on the scale of panic and turmoil
in past market pullbacks, COVID crash, global financial crisis, dot-com bubble.
Is it one of those type of events we're seeing unfolding right now?
How long will it last? one of those type of events we're seeing unfolding right now how long will it
last all of those details uh by the way if you're if you're a prospero user and you haven't signed
up for our newsletters yet we're going to be going over how you can uh use the news letters best in
your investing and in your trading so we have two different newsletters at the end of today's stream. We'll be going over both of them and how you guys can use them to your best advantage. So stick around.
We'll go through all our topics today and we'll get to that at the end of the stream.
I also want to discuss now that the dust is settling, we've talked about it before,
but now in hindsight, was NVIDIA or any of this ai hype a bubble now that all these
stocks are pulling back is it time to hedge your hedges so we've been preaching at prospero on
these live streams for probably over a month now about how you should be hedged in this type of
market um but with the vix hitting 60 obviously it's not going to stay there forever uh should
you short the vix? Is it too soon?
Should you just be taking off your hedges? How should investors be thinking about that?
Then we got news from Jaguar Land Rover, which is a British automaker that they're going to be
pausing shipments to the US for one month as they assess the tariff impacts. I'm wondering if they,
after they do their assessment, if they, after they do their
assessment, if they realize like it's not viable for their business, will they just pull out the
USA market altogether? Could that be a thing that we see from a lot of international companies
if these tariffs do go in effect, which I believe the brunt of them are set to be going in effect this Wednesday, April 9th, if this headline
is indeed not true.
Then I have to bring up Cathie Wood's ARK fund, ARK-K.
Let me pull it up.
I looked before and it was down over the course of five years, maybe with this.
Okay, now it's slightly positive. You've got a 1% return in ARKK,
their innovation fund over the past five years. So I want to ask George, what in her strategy is
not working? And how is Prospero strategy different? Because we've been able to beat
the market performance for three years in a row now. Because we invest in a lot of similar companies. She's
obviously had Tesla, Palantir, a lot of the other high growth tech stocks, innovation.
Why can she not capitalize on the bull markets that we've had over the past five years? If you
go from the COVID low until 2022, and then 22 bear market, and then since then, obviously the AI bull run. So what does she need to change up?
Mario Mech said,
there's a story going on right now
that Trump may pause tariffs for 90 days
for everybody except China.
Yeah, we have to discuss that
when George gets in here, Mario.
I saw that headline come out,
but then supposedly the White House refuted it.
But I don't know,
things are still looking a little bit better than this morning. So maybe there is some truth in it
after all. Maybe there was a Trump put in place. I think the markets officially hit bear market
territory this morning. So maybe the administration is just kind of trying to soothe the pain a bit
for today. But we'll see. We'll see if there's any updates that you hear
that are definite Mario while we're streaming.
Definitely let us know.
Another story I want to cover today
is a stock called Janover,
which is up 350% this morning.
Let's see if it's still hanging on up there.
Now it's up 385%.
So maybe a short squeeze going on there.
But they announced that they're going to be taking a similar strategy as MicroStrategy.
But instead of doing it with Bitcoin, they're going to be doing it with Solana.
And they're actually going to be changing their name from Janover to DeFi Development
Corporation. And this is after some ex-Kraken employees got a large control of the company
through acquiring shares. So will this work for Janover in the long run? Obviously, MicroStrategy
has kind of created their own path with what they do and how they run their business and this, you know, new crypto crossover world. So will it work for Janover and doing this with Solana? I think most people think of Bitcoin
kind of as separate from a lot of the other cryptos. So how will it work out in the course
of time? And then last but not least, or last story of the day, we want to discuss Amazon.
They're launching a project called Kuiper, which is
broadband satellites set to take place April 9th. So right now, Starlink has kind of been, you know,
dominated that industry for so far. So some competition there. Who do you trust more,
Bezos or Musk? Kind of just a headline grabbing story there.
But Amazon, we got to at least cover a little exciting news.
There's a lot of dreary stuff going on in the markets recently.
So kind of maybe it'll be fun to highlight some futuristic tech and Amazon's project there.
And like I said at the beginning of the stream, stick around.
We'll be going over the investing letter, the trading letter, how you guys can use it in your investing to benefit.
And then we will still be doing the model portfolio update at the very end of the stream.
So probably a long stream today.
Let's take a look at the SPY and QQQ net option sentiment in Prospero now.
And actually, before I do that, let me just give a state of the markets where they at so we had the
qqq up two-thirds of a percent spy approaching the flat line just barely negative dow jones down
almost one percent russell just barely in the just updated it is actually now back in the red, volatile times. And the VIX is at 47 currently, up 5% on the day.
Let's check in Prospero, SPY and QQQ.
Okay, so right now we have this SPY at shocker zero for net options sentiment,
which it has been since April 4th now.
And obviously a lot of time before that,
we got that brief hope of optimism
that quickly went away.
Now checking in at the QQQ.
Let's see where that's at today.
And the QQQ is at two in net options sentiment.
So not looking good for our signals for the overall markets.
Anything can change.
We saw that this morning as things opened up super red and then popped up green in just a moment.
So got to be on your toes in this market.
I wonder, is anybody watching the stream
for the first time after George went on live with,
who did he go on live with last week?
He talked Tesla on Twitter with a big account.
Wait, let's see who he was live with.
I wanna give a shout out just in case anybody's here from that.
Whole Mars catalog.
So if you're watching for the first time, welcome into the Prospero community.
From that, hopefully you enjoyed George's discussion.
I know he was kind of giving the bear case for Tesla, so maybe that upset a few people.
But welcome.
Give us a chance.
Okay.
Let me look at how MAG7 stocks are doing and some other things, if anything's noteworthy
here as the market has opened up today.
Interesting to see an old friend, SM up in the green seven percent let's check in on nvidia
nvidia is currently up just under two percent at 96 after hitting 83 dollars this morning
it's pretty insane to see the level at which these these things can move so quickly in this market. Let's see. Apple is
currently red, down at 181, down 4% on the day. Amazon green, Meta green, Microsoft red. Let's
see Tesla. Tesla is also in the red. Google green. So the MAG7 is kind of split right now.
Seems like it's trading a bit on, I would say, value, relative value.
So the ones that have lower valuations seem to be doing a bit better today.
And maybe the ones that have been hit harder already.
See if that continues in the coming days.
Bitcoin.
Bitcoin is green today. But it did have a big pullback yesterday, Sunday, in preparation for today.
So maybe it got all of its downside risk out of the way there.
Hello, George. Welcome to the stream today.
But yeah, Bitcoin is holding up a bit better right now.
Let's look. All right. Yeah. So the only market that is green at the moment is the QQQ. Let me just tee George up for the first topic. So the pre-market was looking
pretty dire, kind of like a Black Monday type of situation. Let's see, the SPY was down
almost over 5% at one point. QQQ down also over 5%, almost 6% at one point. So just a continuation
on the downside panic risk sell-off that we've seen. Last time we were live was Wednesday, and it was before
the finalized tariff announcement happened. We saw the SPY drop 10% in just two sessions to end
last week. It was the quickest decline since March of 2020. Tariff chaos, inflation fear,
recession fear. How do you feel after the past three days? And then obviously
opening up super red this morning before kind of we got that. I don't know if it's a fake headline.
It hasn't been confirmed. I think it was actually refuted of a 90 day pause
on tariffs besides China. So just give us your latest thoughts on what we're seeing in the markets.
Hello, George.
I can't hear you if you're speaking.
I'm not sure.
Yeah, it was my internet got slow for a second.
Not, not the best area to fix the camera today again.
The camera is looking laggy right now. I guess it might be from the internet.
Yeah.
Let's see.
Give us one moment here, folks.
Hopefully we get this sorted out and we'll jump right into the market today. Let's see.
Ryan Hansen is in here watching the streams.
What's up, Ryan?
Welcome to the stream today.
Ryan said, sold that UVXY at 46 and now long.
Sorry, everyone.
We'll be with you in a second.
We're having some speed issues. Okay. Sorry, just one of those days, everyone.
Ryan, so it sounds like you think the market's hit a bottom because he said he sold
UVXY and went long Tesla and MSDR.
Interesting.
Yeah, I think I see what's going on All right, so we'll see if George gets that settled.
He just hopped on out, so maybe he's going to join back in.
Hopefully the camera's working.
Ryan said, I am a scalper.
I would rather see us go down a little bit lower.
A little bit lower.
You want to see us test
test the bottom of this range one more time it's been crazy to see how fast the
market has dropped in the past three days since the since the tariff announcement was official. And as fate would have it in the recent volatility of the
markets, all of the indices are now red. QQQ, SPY, Dow, and Russell.
So the Russell went from negative 5% to positive 3% back to negative 2.5% right now.
So over a 10% total move.
And it's only 11.15 a.m.
Mario said, George's audio seems fine.
Why don't we ignore the lagging video?
Mario, we make these live streams
into all of our social posts for
the full week, so
if the video's bad, sometimes it can
hurt those as well.
I mean, I don't know.
How are we doing? I think better.
Better.
I'll just add more B-roll this week, maybe.
Yeah, I don't know.
It might be worth it to just restart my computer and see if that works.
Just try one thing.
Thanks, Drew.
I'll be right back.
Okay.
So we'll do a restart on George's end, and then we'll kick off the topics.
Wow, we've had over 1,200 people. It's a bad day for us to really have a lot of viewers early,
but welcome in here, everyone. We'll be getting into the topics very shortly. If you're watching
on Twitter or YouTube, you can comment on the live stream, anything you want to hear, stock-specific,
Anything you want to hear, stock specific, macro, micro, anything business, AI, tech, stock investment advice.
Just let us know.
We have a bunch of topics we're going to get into ourselves, but we'd love to address your biggest concerns.
So let us know.
Let us know and we'll get to it.
And I'll jump right to the top of the list.
So we'll go to it as soon as we can. Let's see. Let's see. How is certain sectors doing today?
Let's look at fintech. PayPal down, Square down, Coin down, Hood down, SoFi green, Affirm green.
on hood down, SoFi green, affirm green.
Where is your SPY sentiment index found?
Are you talking about net option sentiment, Dev?
You, Viraj, you want to hear about the NVIDIA bubble?
That is going to be an interesting conversation.
Now looking in hindsight after the drop.
So Dev, if you go in the Prospero app, if you have it downloaded,
and then you click on search option, which is the second from the left tab on the bottom of the app,
and you just type in spy in the search bar, you'll pull up the spy.
And then you can look at all the signals.
NetOption sentiment is one of the signals
in the short-term box that is found.
It's currently at zero,
and then if you keep scrolling,
you can see the history of that signal specifically
for like a two-week, three-week period.
Right now, it goes back to March 25th.
So hopefully that's helpful.
Thanks. You're welcome. You're welcome.
Great. I was able to help someone with the Prospero app. That's cool.
Hopefully you guys are using the app in your investing.
It's been, it's been, I feel like the signals have been on point. And George came out bearish in
the newsletter and on these live streams, kind of on the earlier side of things, right after
Steve Cohen had his big press conference where he went pretty bearish and laid out some of the
risks and concerns for the market. And the Prospero signals have agreed they've been
very low in net option sentiment for the SPY and the QQQ for the most part over the course of the last month, six weeks now after they were pretty bullish. All right, I think we're good now.
Yes, it is looking good. Sorry about that, everybody. Thanks for your patience.
Let's switch. All right, I guess we should just hop right into it.
Do you want me to tee you up again or you just want to jump into the market that we're currently seeing?
No, no. Tee me up again. I don't know what the lead-in was.
Okay. So just last time we were on these live streams, it was before the full tariff.
Oh, I remember now. Okay.
So yeah, we're talking about since our last live stream for those that are new. And basically that was before the tariffs. And we were going in pretty cautious on that. And what we've said for the last couple of weeks, we've seen our QQQ'd SPY net option sentiment have been at all time lows. So we've been pretty cautious.
been pretty cautious. But it actually looked for a second after market close that things were going
to go well. And we actually got into Apple oven and then out pretty quickly. And then we went
short a bunch of stuff. And so, yeah, we already had some short positions on. We went a lot more
and it ended up being a really good week for us. But the timing was good. In our letter last week,
we talked about how hedges like SQQQ and SEC could have been very helpful. I still think they're helpful now. And I even see people talking about how puts have become really expensive.
SEC, SQQQ look like good alternatives to options. But yeah, I think that we're absolutely in a spot
now where obviously we saw there was a fake out where Trump said maybe there'd be a delay on the
terror. Trump didn't say that. There was thought that the Trump administration said that. Then he
came out and said that they didn't say it. So we're very much in the news.
We're very much like a news cycle market more than I'd say we've ever been, right? It's almost
as if the fundamentals are tossed out the window. Now, there's like certain things you can do,
like what we've been doing generally more long things like real estate, consumer defensive,
more long things like real estate, consumer defensive, short things like tech and consumer
cyclical. That's a pretty good bet to balance your portfolio, I think, for the near future.
But to be honest, we got out, we changed some of our positions around again today because things
were moving so fast. It looked like our shorts could really get flip on us. Of course, in the end, you know, basically all
that happened was we started the week four long, seven short. Then we went to five long, seven
short, and we ended at three long, six short. So we're tweaking. We don't want to overreact to this,
but I think it's overall pretty bearish. And I would actually say the most bearish thing
I've seen out of this is that we were in restoration hardware, which ended up being
a losing short position, one of our losing short positions last week, one of not many.
And watching it closely, we noticed, we know they do business in Vietnam.
And essentially, when there were rumors that there might be a negotiation with Vietnam, the stock popped.
But one of the things I'm looking very closely at, one of the headlines I was looking at this morning,
was that Vietnam's apparently willing to cut tariffs to zero.
And the Trump administration is still like, well, we're worried about smuggling,
you know, worried about all these other things. So I'm actually looking at that concerned that maybe it's not about getting a deal, right? Because it's about getting a deal. And, you know,
they've said that they want zero tariffs. Why not accept that deal with Vietnam? So that's kind of
the most concerning bear signal I've seen today. And the only other thing I'd say is that
it is pretty hopeful that if we do get a bull signal, the market looks like it's waiting to
react to something positive. Of course, it swung in the other way when that didn't turn out to be
a real positive story. But I think that is the one encouraging thing that we might be one good
piece of news away from a very positive day or a couple of days. But I think what that nets out to
is we could have very negative news. Any smaller piece of positive news could push very bullish.
So stay well hedged. And I'd say if i wasn't watching the market as closely as i do
i wouldn't even be three long six short i might be like four i might even be like two
two long three short um would be my ratio if i couldn't watch it as closely um so yeah just food
for thought but but i think there's overall a lot of downward momentum on the market for macro reasons.
But as I think what we saw today is the encouraging thing is that, you know.
I do think the market is looking to turn around if it gets good news.
So question in our chat from Soflow. why are industrial stocks like Prologis hurting,
considering these tariffs should be encouraging production and manufacturing inside the US?
Well, I can't speak to that specifically. But what I can speak to is a lot of the industrials we have have inputs from other countries, right? So the goods that
we're getting that are being imported to make those industrialized products are coming from
other places. So it does impact those countries. I mean, companies, that's the thing. And that's what I've said about
these tariffs, that they only really make sense from a negotiating standpoint, because from
the standpoint of actual spurring of manufacturing in this country, we just don't have much. And not
only do we not have much, even when we do manufacture things, we're often buying a lot of the inputs from other countries.
So I said, if we did want to do tariffs, it would have been a lot smarter to stimulate manufacturing.
You know, look at everything that China has done to build infrastructure, stimulate manufacturing.
I don't know why that wasn't the first step that we did here, because then tariffs could
be a lot more effective.
What you're seeing now is like, yeah, you might look at stocks and say, wow, like, why
is this that or the other thing?
And I'd say most of the time, it's going to be even if it's manufactured here, that there
are a lot of inputs to those manufacturing products coming in through other countries.
And we have Mario asking, what are you going to be looking for in the Prospero signals that can
indicate a potential bottom to get more constructive and going back long?
Well, it's not an either or. I kind of adjust a lot on the fly and make small adjustments. I mean, last week, going into the tariff announcement, there was some positive movement in SPY QQQ net option sentiment, but I was still a little more short than long, right?
than long, right? It's kind of like, I guess the basic formula is when I start to see a bullish
recovery in SPY, QQQ, and options, and I'd probably need to see both. If you recall going
into the tariffs, SPY actually was in the bull range, but QQQ was still very low. I think in the
high zero, like around seven to 15, I think was its range that day. So what I would need to see is QQQ, SPY,
both, I'd say at least at 30 and staying there consistently for a few days for me to switch
the portfolio back more bullish than bearish. So you mentioned how the market is kind of looking
like jumpy if there's a very good headline that it'll turn positive.
I'm wondering, where does the current environment rank in terms of fear, panic, capitulation, as some other stock market collapses you've gone through as an investor?
Are we there yet where this is like a true crisis or does it not feel the same as those others in
the past? I'd say the one thing that makes it different is that, and I'm not trying to criticize
the policy here. We still have to like, everybody I think has to see how it plays out. It's not,
it's certainly not playing out well now. But, now. But I think there's a lot of people
that think there's a conclusion before it is, if there's negotiations. Anyway,
I would say the one thing that makes this different is typically when you see economic
issues, you'll have the government basically saying that they want to fix it, right? Whatever's wrong,
they're going to fix it. They're going to stimulate policy to do it. Here, where it is
kind of the policy itself that's causing the issue, I'd say that's a pretty unique part about
it, right? And if you look at other things like the O.A. crash, you know, the government didn't really cause it. Right. It was it was the banks and they can kind of come in for the safe.
Right here. The policy is is causing it.
So it puts the government can't come in for the rescue.
And I think that's making people especially uneasy. Right.
And I think you kind of saw, you know, Trump kind of reinforcing that he's not in any hurry to put these away and there might be some pain and this is going to be medicine.
And if that's your message, then people are going to be uncertain.
They are going to be bearish.
If there's a policy that's sending the market down that isn't going anywhere and there was just an announcement that I looked on my phone that he he's now threatening a 50, that Trump's now threatening a 50% tariff against China.
And that's what we've been saying the whole time. The concern isn't any one tariff number. It's that
there's escalations on both sides and the cost of goods is out of control in a trade war.
We're already seeing signs of that, unfortunately, when you see things like that.
And, um, I don't think China's backing down and I don't think Trump's backing down.
So that's why we are, um, you know, that's why, you know, we, we rarely, the letter this
Sunday, we rarely take that tough of a stance.
Um, typically even our letter last week about hedging was much more of like, this is what happens if
you do, you know, we kind of, you know, recommended that people take it more seriously.
And obviously there are paid readers see that we're escalating our recommended market hedge
in the bottom of our letter. But that all being said, we did take a bit of a stronger tone
this week, where I think we really pushed a little more on people hedging their portfolios.
And yeah, I think you see a lot of discussions of, you know, is this the bottom, right? And
oh, like average down, you average down to the bottom, that's fine. But I think that's kind of what people do when, A, I would say the economy is in a bit more of a normal shape, right?
There's natural ebbs and flows to the US economy.
And in the instances where the government is doing everything they can to try and fix the problem, then yes, these things have finite timelines.
But in this situation where the government policy is what's causing the problem and you
have people saying they don't really plan to back off, that is a very different situation
in terms of how fast and hard it can fall and how much you might have to buckle up for
the longer term.
So that's why, yeah, I mean, at this point, we're really saying that you might regret.
And, you know, whether this is the bottom and all these stats about like,
oh, you'll miss all the green days if you do the blah, blah. I think that is kind of just like
general, like, like, it's the same thing with kind of value investing that I can rail against
sometimes where it's just like, it's meant to control retail investors and say oh you guys invest at these
valuations because this is what we're comfortable with and it's a way to control retail investors
and i think it's the same way with this hedge funds want all the access to cheaper puts and
they want to be the one shorting the market so the costs don't go up so it's very easy for them
to spread the message like oh just average down do what you always do you don't want to be the one shorting the market so the costs don't go up. So it's very easy for them to spread the message like,
oh, just average down, do what you always do.
You don't want to miss the green turnaround, blah, blah, blah.
The fact of the matter is, sorry, but if you'd been listening to us
when we first turned bearish and started shorting the market then,
adding SEC, SQQQ would be in much better shape now.
And yeah, there's a lot more upside for you hedging now
than downside, especially if you want to buy SQQQ, put a stop loss on it. So there's a circuit
breaker and you say, okay, I'm only willing to lose X percent on this. If you have a long
portfolio alongside that, you'll barely even notice, depending on what the percentage of your portfolio is.
But no, I do not think averaging down, I honestly don't ever think that was good advice.
But when the economy in the US was healthier, then yeah.
And if you want to, it's not just me.
Even Trump is admitting that the economy is unhealthy and this is the medicine and
this is it, right?
So that's better advice for a healthy economy where we don't have as much, you know, government
debt.
We don't have as much consumer debt.
We're not, you know, trying to, like, basically make a point of, you know, of changing trade
relations, which, like, if you look at history and look at
people changing trade relations, um, there's a lot of wars that have been fought over that.
And those wars can last a very long time. Um, so having the typical advice from everybody who's,
who I think are just the people that want to hold themselves and feel comfortable there and just don't want to take their medicine, that even Trump is saying it's medicine.
Yeah, it's time to take your medicine and understand that you might not be that comfortable
going short the market, even in an ETF.
But I think you'll probably be happy that you did.
Or maybe this turns around, you lose a little money,
and you're still like, well, I bought the insurance.
I could have lost a lot more.
Hopefully, that's your attitude.
But yeah, obviously, we're doing very well going short.
I think there's a question on that later.
But yeah.
So I have, I think, a really interesting topic to come back to, which you, Viraj, in our chats that they were very interested about is the question of,
was NVIDIA a bubble? Now that we've had NVIDIA pull back from 150, now below 100,
so over a 30% pullback, it was as low as 83 this morning in the pre-market.
So that was pretty shocking.
That got bought up pretty quick.
But I think, you know, we were talking about it while NVIDIA was at highs.
Now that we've seen a pullback, what are your thoughts now looking in hindsight?
Well, not to toot our own horn too much, but NVIDIA always looked pretty bad in upside
relative to the other tech stocks, which meant the long term picture for institutions was always a lot cloudier for Nvidia than, you know, some of the other tech names that we get into.
And that's one of the reasons why it was kind of rarely in our portfolio, because as good as it looks short term, sometimes it never looked that good long term.
And I mean, the whole market was kind of a bubble, right?
But, you know, I pushed back against the people saying that this had to happen, right?
We've seen the market go up, up, up, up and, you know, kind of need an event, an event
that wasn't necessarily the government that stopped it.
And I do think there could have been a lot more prosperity. And like, that's the one thing I say,
like, look at how the market reacted to Trump getting elected. That was the expectation that
he would, you know, treat things similarly to how he did his first term. But I think there was value there based on a certain stability in the US economy.
And this is why macro factors are so important.
The value of all of these companies, NVIDIA included, is not the same without a stable
US economy.
It just isn't.
And the fact of the matter is when you have a destabilized U.S. economy, growth stocks are going to be the ones that get punished.
And what's probably the biggest, you know, most famous growth stock?
NVIDIA.
So, you know, that is going to be something where, you know, like we've always talked about, sometimes these things get shorted
heavily because people are looking for a better entry point. It's opportunistic. And, you know,
institutions certainly average down, but they do things like average down and own puts, right?
They'll have money to keep profiting as the market goes down, but they'll buy their long-term shares as it goes down as well.
So that's obviously a strategy that we're talking about here too. You can have some complexity
to your strategy and adding short positions can really help even strategies involving average down where
you are acquiring new shares, but you're also profiting off the market going down.
And that is the difference between kind of an amateur and a pro.
The pros are going to make money on the way down.
The other people are are going to make money on the way down the other people are just gonna you know and and honestly what i would say to anyone that's just like and i don't really want you know i don't
want any like i don't want to profit on the way down i just want to like buy and hold and i don't
want to own inverse etfs then you should just own etfs and don't bother with stocks like if you're
not prepared in markets like this
to be short, to take short ETFs,
then you might as well just own the market
because what you're trying to optimize for
is safety and long-term ownership
and Vanguard Total Return, SPY,
that'll take care of that for you.
If you want to invest in individual stocks
and you want to take on the additional risk
that it takes to do that, now is the time to learn how to short, learn how to take short indexes.
You know, I just had a thought for the first time. So let's see if you think there's any truth to
this. As you were speaking, I just popped into my head. I wonder if the reason that retail investors
aren't excited or willing to short the market or hedge as much is kind of from a
naivety of like thinking they could make like 100% return or agreed or a hopium in terms of like,
well, they think to themselves, if I hedge the market, then I'm limiting my upside. So I'll
never get that 50% return or 100% return. Whereas in institutions institutions are like if i beat the market and i
hedge or i return 10 to 20 like i'm happy like they're investing much more us like with lower
expectations do you think there's any truth to that um i'm not sure i i'm not sure I totally agree with either side of that. I think a lot of the retail mindset is kind of a mob mentality.
You kind of see this like, oh, like you see these like generational thing where like buy and hold worked for me.
So it's going to work for you.
And there's kind of like, you know, just own these stocks and own them forever.
And that's kind of been passed down. And there's some truth
to the idea that that works. But the other thing where I advocate for people learning more about
short-term gains is the median income right now relative to the cost of a house is lower than it was in the
Great Depression. Just think about that for a second. Houses were more affordable in that period
than they are now. So some of that advice is really dated, right? Because a lot of these
people that built wealth, invested in the stock market, they were actually extracting money from homes, you know, owning multiple ones, renting them out, throwing that money.
So, yeah, if you have a stable cash flowing asset like that, it's a lot easier to just put your money into the stock market and do it.
But not everyone here is that, you know, is that lucky.
that lucky, right? So I think trying to learn how to profit off the ups and downs of the market
is how some people will make their fortunes this time, not just sitting and waiting for the American
economy to take care of them, because it's a different proposition. It's more of an economy
for the wealthiest now than it's ever been, maybe not since the Gilded Age. I don't know what the medium home,
I don't even know if people bought homes back then, a lot of them. But where I do see the
accuracy and institutions want to make 10, 20 baggers for sure, right? That's what they're setting out to do.
But I'd say the big difference is in their risk management.
An institution will make 30% on something and they'll say, I want to take at least half of that
in profit and I'll let the rest ride
or something like that.
You know, everyone's different.
Or, you know, the nice,
this is where institutions kind of have a benefit.
They can set a trailing stop loss
and they can have, you know, high frequency execution
where they can be confident that they can get that.
And they don't even have to exit.
They'll just exit whenever that position
or they'll exit X percent
whenever that position is down 5%,
which is on the table for people too.
But I would say the majority of attitudes that I see
that need adjusting in retail is that mindset of, oh, I made 20%, but I really want 50. I made 50.
I really want 100. And I think part of that mindset that people are just holding
is they have that NVIDIA. And, you know, their stake was worth, you know, twice as much as it
is now. And some people tend to view, like, some people tend to be motivated by that regret. And
it was like, oh, I have that much money. I want to make it back.
Like in my heart, I believe it'll get there again.
You know, when their attitude more should have been like they should have been exiting as this happened.
They should have been taking it more seriously.
That more cash on the sidelines would give them more options now.
But like a correction like this, there's still time. There's still time to make money
on the way down. And that's why we're encouraging people to do that.
And we do in the newsletters and on the streams, we talk a lot about actively hedging with short
positions in your portfolio. I think a lot of people, maybe even Buffett,
like prefers possibly just holding cash. Would you recommend that for retail investors as a
possible strategy? And like what percentage of a total portfolio, if that's a viable option to you,
like would you recommend holding cash in your portfolio? Even not at times of like panic like this, just like on a regular basis?
Um, I mean, I think whether whether people like that's a that's a very personal question,
much like it is with hedging, where we're just giving people general advice.
Yeah, I mean, going to cash is better than just watching the shares go down if you're not comfortable shorting.
And part of the reason that we give that we give the advice of SQQQ, SEC, is because for
people that have been holding for a while and are worried about the capital gains, that gives you a
way to hold and not go to cash and not take those taxes and also have a way to protect your downside.
Because I know a lot of people don't want to get taxed on those and they do have long-term faith.
And that's why we, we orient more around that, but yeah, going to cash, like any strategy that's good for Buffett is, you know, good for anyone if they want to execute. I mean, it would have been
a lot better if you got out when he did. Um, and I mean, I think if there's one thing to take away
to going to cash, right. I think that, um, you know,
now we're more talking about, maybe you've had some losses, you want to get them back by short,
you know, shorting in various capacities. Um, but, uh, I think even more than what's often
talked about, which is like, oh, well, you know, you make, you got to stay in because,
you know, everybody makes their money off like two or three green days.
Beyond that, I actually think to link up what we're talking about with not being greedy,
I actually think it's more important to not have to find the top than, you know, worry so much about if it's, you know, it's, it's at its bottom,
it's near its bottom, time to average down. I actually think it's much better to make your
profits take your gains on the way up than sitting here, losing a lot of them, and then
wondering what you do and kind of doing it from a tougher emotional place. So with the chaos we've seen, I was thinking the ARK fund was probably not doing
that well, but I was even a little surprised when I checked it out. So I looked at it on a five-year
basis and it's now down 1% over the past five years. So with everything that we've talked about today, what is wrong with
Cathie Wood's investing strategy management style that hasn't allowed her to capitalize on the gains
that, for example, I mean, Prospero has been able to beat the market the past couple of years.
And I feel like you're trading, investing in a lot of the same stocks she owns. So what is she
doing wrong that hasn't allowed that fund to capitalize on innovation like they promised?
So I think this fits very well in our conversation, right? We do invest in a lot of the same
names as Cathie would, but two things that we do very differently is we're almost always short too.
We're almost always hedged. Like I will rarely have tech
in my portfolio long unless I'm also short some tech. Now, granted, if I only have one tech,
I might not be short. But if I have two, three, I'll almost definitely have a tech name short.
And yeah, I mean, there's a reason that hedge funds became more popular, hedge right there in the name, because it's way harder to
make consistent profits going just long. I mean, the bear markets, and I'm sure people are seeing
it, bear markets eat you up on long only, because not only is there less to be made,
but the stocks that have gained the most, that are most comfortable for people,
that are high growth stocks, those are the ones that get hammered the hardest in bear markets. And yeah, Kathy is now like in the last
five years, this is probably going to be the third, I think it's the third bear turn. That's
actually a lot of bearishness in a five-year period. And it kind of speaks to what we're
saying, which is like the American economy is not as healthy as it was. So this buy and hold thing is really not good advice. And like you can see
Cathie Wood, like growth, big growth names, like you can see on a five year span, like the best
tech stocks, buy and hold strategy. It's not working, right? What is working? A strategy like
ours where we're willing to go short. And it makes a big difference because it's not working, right? What is working? A strategy like ours, where we're willing to go
short. And it makes a big difference because it's not only that we're willing to hedge our longs,
it's that at times we will go more short than long and actually see gains from that. And she's
not seeing any gains from bear moves. We see gains from bear moves. And that's what we're
advocating here. And it really changes the profile of your portfolio.
I wonder if she'll ever switch it up and if investors would accept that if she announces, like, we're going to start kind of doing what you do.
You think, like, I mean, with the return, she'll have no choice but to make some change, right, with the portfolio?
she'll have no choice but to make some change, right? With the portfolio?
I don't know. No, I mean, the thing about it, I get a lot of pressure to go like long only.
And like, everybody wants it. It's like, it's easier for people to follow. And ETFs,
everybody generally likes that. And it's harder to have an ETF where you're short because generally
shorts are more churn and more churn is more regulatory difficulties.
So I wanted to bring up this company Janover today because I saw an interesting story about
it and oh my goodness, the stock is now up over 600%.
So there must be a short squeeze or something.
Last I checked, it was at 350%.
But what they announced this morning was that Janover is going to adopt the micro strategy strategy.
But they're not going to do it with Bitcoin.
They want to do it with Solana.
So ex-employees of Kraken, which is a popular crypto company, have acquired some shares, got control in Janover.
And they're going to rename it DeFi
Development Corporation. Do you think this can work long term for Janover, this Bitcoin-esque
strategy, although they're doing it with Solana? And I know a lot of investors and crypto people
think of Bitcoin as different. So I'm wondering if with another crypto, this will work in the
long run. I mean, it hasn't gone too bad for micro strategy.
So it makes sense.
Someone's trying to copy at least a little bit, right?
I mean, it's not a bad move.
It's working well for them today.
It's really not a bad move.
It's not a bad move if you don't have a lot of other options as a company, right?
You could be like, oh, well, you know, things aren't really working for us.
Maybe let's try the microstrivate you play, right?
Because we talk about it.
It's all about capital raising for a lot of these companies.
So if your stock price is not very good, you can't raise money at good prices,
what does it hurt to give it a try?
Right? Or I mean, I guess in this case, Kraken is coming in and doing it like, you know, no skin
off their back, right? They can come in, they can, you know, acquire assets, maybe at a discount,
you know, make the announcement if it doesn't work, you know, they're in a very similar spot
to where they were. But I mean, I mean, I'm assuming they not only think it's going to work
and pop the stock, which obviously allows them to like get more cash to acquire more
solana um but it's kind of interesting it kind of shows a hole in the market because you'd think
you'd be able to raise an ico that did this better than a stock right you'd be like well
if you could do an ICO,
then you'd be raising from crypto people
like this idea that you'd go in,
you'd find an equity company that already existed
only to do that.
It kind of shows that the ICO market
maybe isn't as healthy and prosperous
as you'd want it to be.
We got this comment from Mario while you were speaking. Do you feel like
there is enough potential downside to justify going into the inverse ETFs now? Oh yeah,
definitely. Like I said, I mean, there is some risk of the tariffs going away, but I'd say at
this point we've seen there's a lot, you know, there's, there's a larger probability that, you know, especially with the China announcement today, that we're
just getting started. And like, you got to take these, you got to take these kind of declines
seriously, right? Unless, you know, look at it as a company versus a country for a second, right?
look at it as a company versus a country for a second, right?
If a company was, you know, had these bad days
and you were looking around and you were just like,
okay, well, are there more reasons that it would continue?
Do they have a way, do they have a clear path
out of what their problems at the market is doing?
And like, you know, it's a possibility
that there's a path out, but, you know, it does a possibility that there's a path out.
But, you know, it does look more likely at this point that we're kind of only getting started.
And, you know, Trump has said as much, you know.
Even even a rumor that there would be a pause was quickly put away.
And, you know, you have a country like Vietnam, who's for all intents and purposes, looking like
they're ready to meet the demand, and that's not being met positively. So yeah, logic says that
there's more room down here. I did also see a headline today that Jaguar Land Rover, which is
a British carmaker, is pausing all shipments of their vehicles into
the US for a month to assess the tariff impacts. I'm wondering if after the end of their assessment,
they come to the conclusion that it's not viable for their business. Could they pull out of the
USA market completely? And do you think more international or internationally based companies could do that. I mean, it's like if you, it's like, if you're going to fire someone, you put them on like
a leave of absence first, right?
If they're not sending the cars in, it means that the profits aren't good enough for them.
So I think, I think the, I think the wait and see part is they're going to see if anything
changes with the tariffs.
But you have to look at it this way.
If they were happy with the profits they were going to get from those cars, they'd sell them now, right?
So they're not happy.
They've stopped.
So like, yeah, we don't really have any reason to believe that would change.
So we have one more topic to get to.
Thank you for close to 3,000 viewers tuning in today.
After this, we'll do the how to properly use the investing and trading letters of Prospero
and the macro portfolio.
So stick around, everyone.
But our last topic is Amazon is launching a project called Kuiper, which is a broadband
satellite project expected to begin April 9th.
The newest Starlink competition on the market.
Starlink has kind of owned that for, I feel like, as long as it's existed now.
So do you think Amazon could give them a run for their money
and take some market share from them?
I mean, I think Amazon can always give anyone a run for their money.
You know how we feel about Amazon on these streams.
But yeah, I mean, they seem to be taking a serious run at this,
as they are like a lot of like, you know, it's hard to, you know,
they're getting into self-driving cars.
It's hard to see any market where Amazon isn't trying to make a play, right?
And the thing that they have better than anyone
is a customer base and data, right?
Like, that's the thing.
If they roll this out, you know,
if there's existing Amazon customers,
it's very like, how easy would it be to just like,
be like, oh, you don't have good internet?
Just buy your internet, buy your phone from Amazon.
They already, they could just like package it all
into a more expensive, you know, tiered version of Prime, right? Or just
like, or they raise the whole thing of Prime, you know, you just buy Prime and it's like your,
your, your health insurance, your, your internet, like you just pay Amazon as if they're just like
a government. And like, the more that they, the more they do that the easier the easier it will be
like you know there's that joke of the future where like you just have your little like like
your little like package delivery every day it like flies up at a drone and it's just like
everything that you need and like you know amazon's amazon's even like giving you things that
you didn't even know like you could probably opt into like amazon sending you products that you
didn't even know that you wanted that you can just return if you didn't want.
I think that's Amazon's vision for the future.
And yeah, I mean, if you look at it, like they were probably they were probably already doing this before Elon Musk had any, you know, any issues with boycotts or anything like that.
But they're probably seeing an easier market, right?
Because if there's one thing that Amazon doesn't have,
and Bezos was never this guy.
Like Amazon doesn't have any,
I mean, if anything,
Bezos was kind of more disliked than liked.
They don't have a guy like Musk
that was like galvanizing people at a time
to buy the products.
I think a big part of what made
so many you know people make fun of them like liberals originally like musk and buy teslas
was the fact that you know he was offering uh a better you know future with electric cars. And now without that kind of cult of personality behind the sales,
it might be easier for Amazon to come into that market. And you even see things like,
you know, Carlos Slim getting out of that contract with Starlink. I don't know where
that's going now, but yeah, I'm sure Amazon was already going to do a good job competing in that
space, but I'm sure they're even happier and I bet on them more with an easier competitive landscape.
So getting into this investing and trading letter, how to use it. Are you going to share anything on your screen or am I going to add that in later?
Because I'm just wondering, it might be better for me to just like remove myself from this video and just have you be full screen for editing it after.
I think you should add it later.
I'm going to talk about some things, but probably it's better that my focus isn't split and I can just kind of talk about it.
George, you are the star of the show.
Okay. So we get a lot of these questions and we're actually going to put this in a video
to help people get up to speed on, well, first I'll do the investing letter and then I'll do
the trading letter. And by the way, if anybody ever wants a trial of either a free trial of either of them, you can always email me at georgeatprospero.ai.
And I'm always happy to, you know, set people up and ask questions, answer questions.
You know, I view like kind of an active relationship with users as very beneficial to everyone.
For those that don't know, net option sentiment was invented on a call that I had with
someone trying to teach them options change. I tried to teach a lot of people. It didn't work.
So that's why it was invented. Anyway, let's get into how to use the investing letter because
there's sometimes some confusion. And just to be clear right up front, what we are teaching in the investing letter and the trading
letter is a methodology to analyze stocks. Our goal is not to have you buy the exact same stocks
as me, do the same long short. The goal is to demonstrate a process by which you can analyze
and select stocks, right? We churn through stocks pretty
fast, right? One of the reasons we churn through stocks in either letter pretty fast in the
investing letter, it's our high conviction stocks, right? So for example, let's say I have a tech
stock. Sometimes I will see like, oh, I'm in Broadcom, but SMCI just passed it in some key signals.
It's looking better.
And I get out of Broadcom, not because I no longer like Broadcom, no longer like it long
term.
You know, stocks like that frequently are above 80 upside breakout, which, you know,
that's our best back-tested signal.
Obviously, they test forward in, you know, conjunction with each other.
But that, when we tested upside breakout of greater than 80,
the population of those stocks historically, if you bought all of them between like 10 and 50 on
a given day and held them for a year, 80% of the days we tested in a five-year back test,
those stocks beat the S&P 500, that basket of stocks. So very reliable in including having a lot of upside.
So I share that by saying like, you know, any stock that has above 80 upside breakout is a
great stock to own for a year. So a lot, I would say almost all of the stocks that we pick are
going to be above 80 upside breakout. So you could look at any of the ones, whether I'm adding or dropping them.
It's more, if you want to follow what I'm doing, being very selective in terms of keeping
the best in a certain sector, you can do that.
But you can also say, hey, you know, George is buying Apple and SMCI, Broadcom, all of
them.
I could just pick my favorite and hold that.
And that's a perfectly
appropriate way to follow the strategy. The other thing that we share in the letter is just how long
short we are, right? And for some people, shorts are not on the table for you. So you can use the
long short capacity to adjust some of the ETFs that we recommend. So if you have, say, five longs,
and we recommend, this is at the bottom of the paid section, 10% in SQQQ, we're at 9%,
but we're making the numbers easy. Then you can simply divide the rest of the longs amongst that, right?
And you're still kind of getting that hedging behavior, right? Because we know not everyone
can follow it. But what we're doing when you look at the bull screener, you can also just,
or the bear screener, you can also just go down. We share that whole screener so you can look at
what resonates the most with you, right? We always make sure there's small cap longs,
mid cap longs, large cap longs, and same for shorts.
So you could say, hey, I'm looking for a new small cap stock
that looks good in the Prospero screener.
I'm gonna grab that, right?
That's why we share the whole screener.
What we're doing with the investing letter
is we're showing you how we think about portfolio management,
given where SPY, QQQ net option sentiment are, given where we see the market caps and the
sectors performing. We're rounding all that information, taking you through our process
so you can see how we manage a complete portfolio given that.
And there's little hints you can take from that, right?
If we are grabbing three tech longs and one tech short, right?
That means we're pretty bullish on tech.
You know, we don't frequently grab, you know, energy stocks because energy financials, they
tend to run lower in things like option sentiment
upside because there's less options speculating on more stable dividend type stocks, right?
So that all being said, sometimes we will expose ourselves to energy, but we'll do something like
one long, one short, or sometimes we'll just be short, right? That's an indication that we don't like the energy sector.
So you can always take what we're grabbing
and you can even just be like,
wow, Prospero has an energy long, they rarely have one.
Maybe I should take this more seriously,
especially if I don't have energy in my portfolio,
if I don't have healthcare and they're adding Cigna,
which we've added before,
that's a more stable stock, right?
So there's a lot of hints that you can take from what we do to help your portfolio. Then obviously
in the paid section of that letter, we have the momentum score stocks. And those are going to be
higher risk, right? Because they're more pure momentum. There's a reason that the bull screener
is for everyone. And the momentum screener is for just the paid users. For paid users, we tend to give more advanced strategies, right?
So you can view those momentum score picks as stocks that could do better than what's kind of in our safer portfolio, but they could also do worse.
portfolio, but they could also do worse. What we put in that kind of safer bull screener,
you know, you see, we added EPS divided by sector this year. And we added how close something was
to the 52 week high. That is all to adjust for the conditions that we're seeing. And that you
can always read into, right? We're prioritizing. Those are value metrics that we've added to the screener. We're prioritizing value more in this market. So there's always a
lot to infer. But at the top level, just to make it easiest, you can also look at everything we
pick as just ideas. If you want to look at all the longs, all the shorts that we put in and say,
you know, I actually just want to grab the top of the bull screener because they grabbed it. And I just want to take that idea because it looks like their best idea. That's the reason that we put in and say, you know, I actually just want to grab the top of the bowl screener because they grabbed it. And I just want to take that idea because it looks like their best idea.
That's the reason that we do it. That's the reason we show you the process and all the information
because we want you to take away parts of the process just as much as we want you to take away
the whole portfolio. Very well said George
we'll pause for questions
for a second on the investing letter
before we move on
and I'm going to take a look
at this crazy market one more time
the SPY I think today
was down as much
as 4%
and up as much as like I think it was like 3.5
that's insane
but that was also only within like an hour of opening yeah i really wonder too if um
if if it was a trial balloon like before pausing for 90 days, if the Trump administration was
maybe just like, well, let's see how much this would even help the market if we did it.
All right. Doesn't look like we have any questions. One compliment. Thanks, Gilbert.
So we'll move on to the trading letter. So a trading letter is our more advanced letter,
right? And what we didn't say there, I mean, because it's more, we call it high conviction,
the trading level letter is going to be a larger portfolio. I've actually seen the trading letter
get up over 200 stocks. And, oh, we didn't say the performance. We might want to edit. I'm going
to give the performance of both letters.
Probably good to have in the video near the start.
So let's get a live look at the trading letter.
The trading letter we list since inception.
And the trading letter is up 23.29% as of today, all time against the S&P 500 and a 55.51% win rate.
And that's on 4,253 investments.
4,253 investments. So obviously the larger the portfolio and the more moves, the harder it is
to beat the S&P 500. So that for our paper trading portfolio on the trading letter is impressive. over 100% as of today in this year. Here, I actually don't know. And there's some updates,
but I was like, oh, are we still over 100%? I didn't check today. Oh, yeah. Wow. Weird.
I thought we'd be lower. Maybe it didn't refresh today. No well there was one move um yeah so we're at
as of today we're at 106 above the market and a 62.8 win rate on investment So that's super impressive. Last year, 2024, we were 77% above the market on our
paper trading portfolio. And the two years before that, about 50% each on the investing letter.
Now, back to the trading letter that says higher churn strategy. What we're basically doing is
we also show things like QQQ, SPY net option sentiment, as well as sectors and caps.
But that is, we do very little research on that.
And we're throwing a lot more ideas out there.
Sometimes we'll make as many as 30, 40 moves in a day, exiting some positions, getting into others.
Typically, we'll tailor it a lot more to what sectors and caps are doing well.
And then just grabbing the top and bottom momentum score primarily.
And we use momentum score for both letters.
That's like a combination of our signals.
And like the trading letter is even more would be even harder to duplicate.
So what we view that as,
as a really good way to take our sector theories,
our theories on market cap,
and then just give you tons of ideas that are fitted to that, that you can say,
okay, financials are doing poorly in momentum score. I'm going to grab two more financial bears
in my portfolio. Maybe I'll grab one of the utilities longs that they added above. And it's really, especially a larger
trading portfolio is about balance, right? Seeing where you are more exposed to the movements in the
market, frequently we'll say, oh, energy's turning around. We need to add some energy longs. We need
to get out of our energy shorts, right? The larger your portfolio, actually, the more you need to really be careful
about the makeup of it, because the overall makeup is what's going to make sure that you're
well positioned to the movements of the market and seeing those, you know, kind of many more
tiny gains, right? Versus the investing portfolio where you're really going to be focusing in on
your research, you know, having your high conviction and really expecting that focus to yield you much bigger gains. A trading portfolio is much more
about, okay, I'm seeing the whole market, I'm analyzing the risk, and I want to place my money
in the highest momentum stocks that I'm seeing long and short, and then getting out quickly if I see things changing
there. So that's why we're really much more signal driven in the trading portfolio. We have much,
you know, we'll exit a lot quicker, we'll be really pure signal, like no matter what else I
think is going on in the stock, if I see, you know, a long go below 50 momentum score, which
is the average, then I'm just going to get out of it.
And it's a lot more complicated for that than that in the investing letter. The trading letter
is just more about like less about analyzing from a value perspective and more about aligning the
portfolio where the sector momentum, the market cap momentum, the signal momentum for our stocks are creating a whole
well risk adjusted trading portfolio out of that. And like we said, what we really want people to
take away from that trading portfolio is kind of similar to where we ended on the investing
ideas, right? These are a lot of ideas. You should filter out the ones that work best for you,
take them into your portfolio and help our process and your process merge together because that's
what Prospero is really, really good at, right? It's simplifying the market, taking all these
signals and kind of simplifying it to being like, okay, is this stock good on momentum or bad?
kind of simplifying it to being like, okay, is this stock good on momentum or bad?
So a lot of it is in the end to try and get these ideas, get you able to wrap your head around them,
and then either learn why we're doing that and matching or kind of filtering your favorite long and short idea of ours
every day in the trading portfolio, because we'll probably have at least a few, and choosing to add that to your process because it's different than
your process and you're seeing different stocks. There's nothing better for diversification risk
management than adding things that make sense to you. You don't want to just add them because we
added them. Adding things that make sense to you that were outside of your process and add balance and diversification
to your portfolio. The Prospero AI trading letter. All right. Any questions on the trading letter?
All right. I think we can do the switch.
All right. So everybody stick with me.
George will be right back.
He's going to go into the Prospero Lab
and we'll do the model portfolio update from there.
Hopefully, you guys, if you're an investing
or trading letter user already or
reader, subscriber, that was interesting to hear. And if you haven't subscribed yet,
maybe now you'll consider. Give it a shot. Let me give you an update on the overall markets.
QQQ is now back down over 1%. The SPY is approaching a 2% decline.
Dow Jones is over 2% red, and so is the Russell on the day.
So the volatility continues, and we're seeing it kind of heading back towards the lows.
The VIX is now approaching 50 again.
It's actually been over there a couple times while we've been streaming, but it is up
8% on the day. Let's see if anything has changed in the SPY or the QQQ net option sentiment signals
in the Prospero app. All right, let's see. Nothing has changed for the SPY, still down there at zero.
Change for the SPY, still down there at zero.
And the QQQ, QQQ is at four.
I think it might've been at two or three
when we started the stream,
but basically no change there as well.
I'm sure if the markets are heading lower,
a lot of the big tech stocks probably are as well.
Let's see.
Bitcoin is actually still green on the day. Maybe a little surprising,
but like I said earlier in the stream, it was very red yesterday, so kind of maybe moved ahead
of the markets. Apple heading towards its lows of the day, now down 6%, currently at 177.
Amazon and Meta are still green, hanging in there green. Microsoft, Tesla, and Google are
now red. Let's check out NVIDIA. NVIDIA is green on the day as well. So, okay. So NVIDIA is hanging
in there, still up at 95. Well, well, well off those pre-market lows of 83.70, I see.
Wow, that's crazy.
I can't believe it was down there.
Well, we'll have to see how the rest of the day plays out.
There is still so much time.
Four hours is left in the market today.
Wow.
Feels like this trading day is like a trading week with all the moves that we're seeing.
So the SPY was down, like George said, over 4%.
Then it was green, 2%.
Back red, 2%.
Back green, oh my gosh, it's whipsawing in every direction today.
So we'll have to see what George decides to do
in the model portfolio with our signals.
Hopefully the topics we covered were helpful for you guys, even though we had some camera malfunctions in the beginning. Hopefully
it was worth the wait. If you're watching on Twitter, consider subscribing to our YouTube
channel. That's where the videos are going to come out of the investing and trading letter when
I edit them from this live stream. But we also post a bunch of shorts on there that come for our
live streams. If you can't catch the lives when they happen, you'll get the best clips, best
moments, best tidbits, most value from our shorts. Trying to hit 2,500. We're at 2,273 subs right now, so we're getting there. Where are the
most current links to informational videos about the signals? So if you just go on our YouTube
page, Mario, all of the videos we have are up there, and then you can just sort through them.
You could just sort through them.
But here, I could probably copy and paste some of our...
Let me see.
Let's see if I could copy and paste this.
Here's one of our videos about technical flow signal,
which was added recently.
I'll copy and paste some more for you as well.
All right.
Let's see what's going on here.
There you go, Mario.
That's a video about us explaining all 10 signals.
So there's two for you.
Do you want to understand the signals better?
Okay, let's share. Steven?
Yes.
Where is QQQ SPY?
The SPY is at zero and the QQQ is at four.
I was like, what is this?
We don't have
they're pretty firmly down there QQQ net options sentiment is at 4 and SPY is at 0. This is about where they have have been so we will adjust a little more bearish
but the pop this morning is something to think about
in terms of getting more bearish too bearish E aí interesting to see growth doing so well today on a red day something to think about but we will look for more small cap stocks
because those have been the worst overall as you look back one, three, and six months. Продолжение следует... After a bit of rebound consumer discretionary is back at the bottom.
We will look for that as well as materials bears and communications and utilities.
Look good.
And bold targets.
Oh, we didn't get this yet.
All right. Продолжение следует... Yeah, we're pretty damn bearish here. Oh, well. That is not many in the momentum score
well
not much we can do with momentum score like that
gotta patch it up probably
i can well i'll try just one more poll
i was actually wondering because on some days recently i've seen like not I can, well, I'll try just one more poll.
I was actually wondering, because on some days recently, I've seen like not 10 stocks on the short term bull list.
Is that because like none meet the requirements to get there?
On like some random, whenever the signals updates?
No, I mean, there should be.
You mean short term bear? No, the short term bull list,. You mean short-term bear?
No, the short-term bull list, like right in the RPics when you open the app.
Just randomly. No, it shouldn't be happening.
Okay.
There's 10 there now.
So it's not happening now.
I'm just going to try one more.
One more and see if we do any better. No, it's the same size.
No, it's the same size.
All right.
All right.
Well, unless there's any questions, I guess we are.
You got the bear present on your desk behind you, huh?
What?
You got the bear on the desk behind you.
Yeah.
I guess it really is a bear market.
Let's see.
Do we have any questions?
No more questions.
All right.
So that's it for today?
Yep.
All right.
Thanks, everyone.
Thank you, guys.
We'll be back live Wednesday, 3 p.m.
And in this volatile market, a lot can change.
So tune back in.
We'll see you all then.
Bye, George.
