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Prospero.ai Stock Market LIVE | Mar. 26, 2025
Recorded: March 26, 2025 Duration: 1:02:32Space Recording
Full Transcription
Hello, everyone. Back here with the Prospero AI stock market live streams.
Sorry, I was a minute or two late today.
George and I were chatting about the topics that we're about to discuss on the stream.
I forgot, unfortunately, I forgot my headphones at home today.
So I hope there's no echo with the audio or no audio issues.
Okay.
If anything happens throughout the stream, just let me know and I'll try to get something sorted out.
I don't know if there's really anything I could do today.
I might just mute myself whenever I'm not speaking.
But sorry about that, everyone.
Hopefully there's no audio issues.
So we have to get to, unfortunately, into this red market we're seeing today.
Red across the board, the fears are back, the panic is back, the QQQQ is down over 2% today.
The spy is down 1.3%.
Dow Jones is down half a percent and Russell is down 1 and a quarter percent.
So the markets are read across the board.
Barclays updated their year end, S&P 500 Target.
They're now the lowest on all of Wall Street.
and they also gave a recession bare case scenario that is very low so stick around i'll give you
those two uh forecasts then we're going to get into the game stop earnings which game stop is one of
the only green stocks on the market today they are able to stay up they are adopting the michael
sailor micro strategy bitcoin uh strategic reserve so we'll get into game stop
and the differences between how GameStop and that company has managed their meme stock likeness,
and then how AMC has not been able to really capitalize on it.
We're going to talk about Tesla and the real sales problems that the company is facing.
The stock is dropping today after recently bouncing back and rallying from the lows of just around 2.20 or so.
See how much Tesla is down today.
Down over 6%, down to 270, but it did go on about a week-long rally, so things are settling down now.
I have a list to share with you all of the 10 largest 10.
cash reserves in the world for the companies around the world.
Most of them are located right here in the USA, but there are a few international ones.
So I'll list all of those and George will go through and say if there is anything that surprises him in that list.
Then we have a few AI stories to go through.
We're going to go through Amazon, which is testing a shopping AI that they're calling interest AI, and then a health AI, both AI assistants.
And we're going to think about if the Amazon acquisition of one medical will prove to be
as lucrative as Google's acquisition of YouTube in the long term.
And then what is the greatest acquisition of all time?
Is it YouTube?
I think a lot of people reference YouTube as it.
Then we have Microsoft now pulling back under 400.
I feel like it's the MAG7 stock that gets like the least amount of headlines or coverage recently.
There was a story that came out about how they're walking away from two gigawatts worth of data center projects.
So it seems like the AI push that they were kind of at the forefront of in the beginning.
Maybe they got over their skis slightly on it.
Very opposite company.
in terms of the AI race, Alibaba.
The China companies were given no credit for the AI,
I think as things kicked off,
but now they're gaining some steam.
Baba released another artificial intelligence model
in its Quen series that operates right on phones and laptops.
And it has some cool features,
and the fact that I can run on such a small device,
I think is a big step forward in the AI world.
Obviously, when computers and that tech was launched,
it went from massive machines that filled up entire rooms
all the way down to a smartphone.
So it seems like AI is going through the same process,
but at a lot faster pace.
And maybe this is the next development that AI needs.
And then we have one more story that we'll get into
before the model portfolio update at the very end of the stream today.
which I have to look at the QQQQ and SPI net options
that's after this as well to see
how they are feeling about the overall markets
in this red day.
But our last story is about student loans
and the Fed gave some worrisome projections
and numbers to the possible student loan borrowers
that have not paid since COVID,
and there was federal forgiveness
and the impacts that that can have on the economy
when that really comes back in full force.
But everyone who's tuning in, as always, if you have any questions about stocks, macro, anything related to the markets, AI, feel free to let us know in the comments and we'll get to all of your questions and concerns.
Throw us a like.
If you enjoy these live streams, if you're tuning in every Monday and Wednesday for them,
or if it's your first live stream ever, I love to see those likes come through.
So please send those our way if you're excited for the topics about today.
I am polling up right now the Spy in Prospero, and we'll check out where it's net option sentiment is at.
Hello, George. Welcome to the stream.
So, checking out Spy here, which had been at zero for a few weeks in a row before popping the end of last week earlier this week is now back down to three.
So the Spy is heading lower and the QQQQ.
is at 15 after we had seen it as high as 48 just a few days ago.
And we're obviously seeing red across the board in the markets today.
I'm not sure why, George, today is such a red day.
I don't know if you can point us in the direction of why the QQQQQ is down 2% today.
Obviously, we have rallied a bit from the lows earlier in the month.
So maybe it's just everybody's taking some gains if they bought at the lows.
Is there any specific tariff news that we got today or anything else that is worrying the markets to the extent where we're seeing
a pretty pretty nice pullback across the board all the indexes besides the dower down over
1% and q kuku down over 2%. I just tried to unmute you and it said can't unmute your guest,
their mic isn't connected. Oh can you hear me now? Yes now I got you. Okay good I don't
I don't know what was going on with that. I have to send this out to one more person
And I don't know, since I like fix the camera,
it feels like I'm on a little delayed.
Like when you were editing, you didn't see that, right?
Or yes?
I don't think so.
It seems okay.
Yeah, because I remember that one week when it was really,
when it was really delayed,
that like I saw when you edited the videos, it looked like really out of sync.
So as long as you're good on the editing, I won't pay too much attention to the fact that it looks like a slight delay.
I think, yes, I think auto tariffs has something to do with it.
I also think that...
There's economic news coming out Thursday and Friday, and I think people are worried about the reaction to it and are like hedging aggressively.
And I think when when people see the hedges come on, like what we see in that option sentiment, I think people start to get worried that if people are hedging, like,
That's one step away from selling or they might have already, you know, clearly started.
But obviously those are the signals we did.
I had a bit of a busy day.
I wish I had been more aggressive in derisking.
But, you know, I, you know, took a bit of a, you know, took like a, you know, 12 point hit.
to the annualized thing.
And I mean, I really did.
I thought I wanted to de-risk more yesterday.
That was like half of me wanted to do that.
But the other half of me said QQQ9 option sentiment still looks good,
have to trust it.
Um, but yeah, I wish, you know, it started to go down this morning and I wish I had been more aggressive there. Um, because my instinct was actually that I was definitely going to like take my gains and de-risk at the end of today. But it's like.
that's the, that's, you know, the issue, right?
Anytime you're just like, oh, I'm worried about, you know,
Thursday, let me, you know, only de-risk at the end of Wednesday,
there's some people being like,
I'm worried about Thursday, I'm gonna get out now.
But yeah, I thought with the positive momentum,
with the good option sentiment scores,
that's why I didn't de-risk at the end of the day yesterday.
And then today I was just kind of a little too busy.
But, you know, that's the price you pay sometimes.
And, you know, that's one of the reasons that we do have this, like, human element to it.
Because, like, just like, you know, I have generally more time to do this than retail investors.
But just like retail investors, I can get pulled away into the other parts of my job.
And, you know, maybe not be able to risk manage as well as I'd like to.
And also, you know, we do things like...
I don't have the ability to set like limit orders or whatever because everything has to be in the moment.
And those are the kinds of things that we do to like, you know, mimic the retail experience as much as possible.
Because I could very easily like, you know, put in substack like, oh, I'm selling if X stock goes to this.
But yeah, we try to be kind of as authentic on that as possible because, you know, the main reason is,
You know, if I set a limit order to sell, there's no guarantee I get that exact execution.
So that's not really fair for me to be able to pick an exact limit price.
What do you think of Mordecai's comment, market makers want Trump to focus on tax cuts and stimulus?
First of all, Mordecai, I've never seen your name in the stream.
Thanks for coming and participating.
Okay.
Yeah, yeah. I mean, it kind of goes back to, this is how I see it. It kind of goes back to the letter that we wrote a little while ago, which was called like I think towards the middle of February, which was called like, don't fuck with our money.
And it was about like how Steve Cohen came out on a Friday.
And after like a horrible day and,
and, you know, my only conclusion was that like, yeah,
market makers, institutions wanted to send a message to Trump that was basically like,
We are used to being in control.
We like being in control.
If you are going to send the market up and down in ways that are outside of our control,
we don't like that.
And we're just going to pick a correction.
We're just going to pick a direction and it's going to be down.
So I think that's kind of the cat and mouse game as I see it.
I think any time market makers are viewing, you know, the market to be too event driven around Trump,
I think they're going to be defensive and just send it down because they know that they can make money that way.
And, you know, honestly, I should have taken more of my own advice too, where it's not just the economic events,
but this April 2nd.
tomorrow and Friday, but, you know, I was saying that I didn't really expect it to go.
Basically, I expected there to be issues before April 2nd or, you know, leading up to that date.
So yeah, all of that kind of coincided to have me say, oh, maybe I should have been more prepared for that.
because of what I was saying.
But, you know, that is, that kind of backs into what we're saying about the market makers not liking being out of control of this.
Because frankly, I'm looking at net option sentiment, QQQQSBY, looking more promising.
And that's one thing.
But the issue is sometimes, especially now, like those are more predictive in markets that,
you know, you could say are within Wall Street's control more if we're counting on Wall Street
to be kind of the bellwether with that option sentiment. But I think you can kind of see, I do think it was the
the auto tariff event that really started to accelerate it downward.
But I think people were kind of looking for any excuse.
And we did start to see that in that option sentiment.
But it does make it challenging because we loaded up more on risk yesterday.
Because it looked like people were bullish and maybe like trying to get their gains in this week or the beginning of this week.
But yeah, I think that.
I think that my instinct that it was only a matter of time before the worries around tariffs carried it down.
is the right one.
And I think we might, you know, we might, I mean, if we get good news on the economic data,
that I think would certainly send it the other way, you know, prior to April 2nd.
But I think it's got to be like, I think even meeting the expectations might not send the market up.
I think there's a lot of concern around it.
I think they'd probably have to beat to send the market up.
But, yeah, I think that.
I think where we are right now is that people expect the unexpected from, you know, anything Trump announcement related.
And, you know,
Expecting the unexpected is expecting volatility.
And if you expect volatility, you're going to be defensive.
You know, when the VIX goes up, that is traditionally and mostly a sign that the market is going to go down.
So if you look at Trump as volatility and you look at, you know, in that sense of volatility, you know, kind of raising the VIX and being a downward pressure on the market,
That's how you connect all this.
And I think, you know, until...
Wall Street, where I do want to tie it back to what Mordecai was saying, like, I do think until
Wall Street is confident in, you know, Trump's plan is going to be good for the economy,
you know, especially on the longer term, I think this is this is what we're going to face,
you know, any kind of date or event around, you know, Trump speaking on.
you know, speaking or creating policy around the macro economy,
I think we're probably going to have to see those events as bare events.
And so because of everything you're saying, Barclays came out and lowered their forecast for the S&P 500.
It was at 6,600. It's now at 5,900.
And they also gave a bare recession scenario that they gave a 15% of probability of the S&P as low as lowly 400.
So what do you think of these targets? They're now the lowest target on all of Wall Street.
Well,
I mean, it's kind of what we were saying about like Steve Cohen, who rarely talks coming out and saying he's bearish, right?
I think these are all like we are seeing a lot of events that, you know, kind of in their essence, are saying, we're bearish on the market.
We're worried about the market.
And when institutions are bearish, when institutions get worried, like that's,
is essentially a self-fulfilling prophecy, right?
Because the more people looking around,
the more institutions looking around,
talking to their friends, being like,
are you worried?
I'm worried.
The more that creates selling pressure,
and the more selling pressure and the more worry that's there,
the more retail will also get worried,
and the more it just kind of accelerates downwards.
So I wanted to bring up GameStop today because they're one of the only green stocks in the market as of now.
Still, they had pretty good earnings able to beat their EPS expectations.
They're up 11% now.
They also announced a Bitcoin Strategic Reserve Strategy.
They have just under $5 billion in cash right now.
How do you grade what you're seeing out of GameStop?
Is it changing from meme stock to legitimate company that has a future or are you not sold yet?
What a world these meme stocks get to exist in.
Like, because when you initially, you know, when I saw GameStop going up today,
I didn't even know it was about earnings.
But when I looked into the earnings myself, I saw that they actually missed on revenue.
And revenue was actually down 28% year over year, which you're just like,
When you zoom out and you look at like the business, right?
it is pretty concerning that you're looking at like a situation that depended on brick and mortar
when brick and mortar is getting harder and harder their sales are declining and just because they're
earning a little more and say something about bitcoin the market's going crazy for them and they look
good in our signals right they have looked good so there's something to this right we talk about this all the time
if it was, you know, 20 years ago, especially like post tech bubble 20 years ago, right?
This company wouldn't be doing well at all, right?
They would be like from value metrics and especially if you're talking about things like
declining sales, right?
Having a slight EPS increase versus expectations is not going to cover those warts that
well, especially when your business long term isn't looking good.
But.
But, you know, reflective of what we're talking about where institutional options bets were bullish on this, it's because the market has changed, right?
Knowing GameStop, you know, just having an earnings beat even with a revenue decline and a revenue miss is enough to make it go crazy.
And yeah, you have to like, you can look at this in two ways.
You know, you can say, oh, like, you know, retail, the market likes, you know, the idea of buying cryptocurrency.
But if you really look at that, you're just like, well, why don't I buy GameStop as opposed to micro strategy?
Right.
Like, micro strategy definitely you see a premium paid for it because I think they were early to the game.
Right.
But like GameStop just, you know, them buying Bitcoin is basically them admitting they have no good business ideas, right?
That's essentially what it is.
They're sitting on a mountain of cash and they literally have no idea how to make their business better.
So they're just buying crypto.
Like to me, that is a very like retail kind of value investment.
right because you know basically it reeks of i already like game stop and this is like to be clear
i actually think that it is an improvement on you know investing money in game stop where you
don't really know how that money is actually to get you an ROI in the business but
If you kind of zoom out and look at the kinds of things that you should look for in a company,
if you do want to make money on the longer term at higher success rates, right?
I'm acknowledging GameStop as the exception, but I'm trying to analyze it in the same frameworks.
And the same frameworks say, it's not only a bad sign for the business that their best idea is to,
invest in like cryptocurrency. And I actually like have a funny analogy here. In the movie Elf,
when they're like writing the bad books with the missing pages or whatever and their best
ideas to bring in like, you know, Miles Finch, another author. It's kind of similar. It's like,
well, not only is that kind of concerning for your business that the talent there doesn't have
ideas to drive the business. It's also concerned.
for your leadership, that you're just like, you know, your CEO, talk about a management team,
having faith in them if their best ideas are essentially throwing in the towel on the business
and doing something completely different, that by the way, you have no control over, right?
If you're talking about buying cryptocurrency, you have no real control.
Like, that's the nice thing about a business.
You have a lot of control.
right you can control the strategy you control the price points you can control a lot of different
things about it buying bitcoin you basically have no control over and it's just like okay if your
strategy is buying bitcoin what good is paying the salaries of all of these people when you're
essentially throwing in the towel on the business so you know to recap
it might work out, you know, our signals even say it's going to work out for you if you invest in GameStop because institutions like it, retail likes it right now.
But, you know, looking at traditional value metrics, I would say the major risk factor on GameStop is
is another like retail darling comes along, right?
Let's say there's another really convincing short squeeze that I think a lot of the like deep state game stock people believe the short squeeze is really coming still even after all this time.
Which is possible, right?
It's possible because you do have all that retail attention and institutional attention.
But that's the major risk factor.
when you're investing in a stock
kind of purely based on momentum
and retail fanaticism,
the major risk factor is if that attention
gets drawn elsewhere.
And, you know, by the way, like,
For those that don't know, I was in AMC pretty early and had a very interesting experience around that.
But kind of the conspiracy with GameStop around AMC is that, you know, AMC was a distraction to get people out of GameStop, ruin that momentum a little bit.
And in retrospect,
That's that's like kind of like a conspiracy that I agree with. I do think looking at all of it like GameStop had so much momentum if they if you know they didn't figure out a way to distract
I do absolutely think the results could have been different and GameStop could have gone a lot higher. So I
That's really the crux of it.
Like, you don't really know when that's going to come along.
And if you're depending on that and you're depending on momentum,
like there is no real value support for GameStop at these levels.
So if people start, you know, moving on to other things and Wall Street says like,
oh, the retail support isn't there like it was.
I don't see the value story.
They will get out very quickly too.
So does it surprise you that it still has good rankings in our signals and, you know,
it will only have those if institutions are also betting on it, given that we're in a market
with such high uncertainty, such risks, such like weakness, the fact that it could still
have strength in GameStop?
That's what's like, you know, and you know, like our signals focus on institutional demand, right?
But...
In this environment, that's actually a feature, not a buck, right?
Because if you know, like, especially if it starts going down, that retail, like a retail army will buy, they'll see value.
They'll say, oh, it's a deal at this level.
If it's down 10, 20%, whatever, like, that's actually, like, that's a much safer.
bet than a lot of other stuff because like look at some of the stats like we got out of today
you know at 11 palan tier like those are two stocks that I really like long term but I got out of
them today because you know once the momentum turns on them they can easily go down 10 20 percent
we've we've seen that you know even more like I think we saw I think out
Apple of them was down like 40% from its hot, right?
That's the market.
That's what you have to worry about where you're just like,
and that's what I'm saying to myself today, like if this accelerates,
I don't really know how far it's going to go.
And one of the original cult stocks, Tesla, has rallied off its lows, but is now giving back a lot today.
I think we wanted to talk about it and maybe discuss some of the actual real concerns behind the business, like some of the sales declines that we've seen when they've
announced vehicle deliveries recently.
And maybe what's driving Tesla stock?
It's fine, I think, 6% today.
It's one of the largest pullbacks we're seeing.
So what's going on there?
Yeah, I mean, I think
I've kind of seen a lot of interesting discussions on Tesla.
And I like, I'm on Reddit a little bit on on Facebook, on X.
And I want to see the conversations.
I want to learn about them.
And the thing about Tesla is I see a lot of misinformation spreading off people that just like Tesla and or Elon Musk or whatever.
And I think it's good to actually just like clear up some of these like, you know, things that are just like raw that people are saying.
And.
So like the first thing is like when people point to international sales being down, like I've heard people say, well, they're going up in America.
So that doesn't matter.
they're not going up in America.
I've seen a 5% down year-over-year figure.
I've seen 11% down year-over-year figure.
These are from like auto associations.
So A, that's incorrect.
So nobody should be resting on their laurels about that.
Like, yes, they are down.
I've also seen people say,
Tesla sales are going to be up because all these burned Teslas are going to be repurchased and bought and that'll increase sales. A, not that many Teslas have been burned. Actually, I believe more Teslas have been burned because of their own flaws than people burning them. And insurance doesn't as well pay for that. But like also.
there's no guarantee someone buys a Tesla again,
especially if your Tesla was set on fire.
Like, do you really want to be like,
oh, I'm gonna buy another Tesla that put it right in my driveway again
and potentially have someone set it on fire?
That doesn't seem as logical as the people saying that.
And the second thing is you can't wave away international sales
when international sales in China
are down 49%.
And China is just by a hair, the second largest customer of Tesla.
So that is a big deal.
And it is actually an even bigger deal when BYD sales are up 161% in contrast.
And you have to look at that same thing in Europe, where you say,
you know, sales are down in Europe, well, EV sales overall are up.
It's the same kind of concept that there shouldn't be going down, given the overall EV market.
And, you know, you have to look at BYD.
And this is the same kind of thing we're talking about in terms of stocks like Alibaba,
getting attention for AI over American stocks.
Like BYD just announced that they have a battery that charges in five minutes.
So, you know,
you have people in Europe liking Elon Musk less and all of a sudden those B.Y.D models that charge faster,
that's a big problem. And I think that like the only other thing to focus on in terms of like, I think bad information is that like Tesla sales are going down. I think it's easy to say because people have problems with Elon Musk. But
It's not right to say Tesla stock is going down because of problems with Elon Musk because there's these very real sales problems.
And like actually if you look at, you know, you shared a stat that I've actually been using a bit, Stephen, that Tesla is attracting like the most retail buying in history.
but it's still going down, right?
And that actually tells you if retail is buying it in record numbers,
why is it going down?
Institutions don't like it.
And that's the big separation, right?
Institutions don't like that the sales are going down.
Institutions don't have any opinions.
Institutions will buy, you know, whatever makes money.
They'll buy like, you know, institutions have a long history of buying
morally questionable companies, you know, driving them up, you know.
And Ron just as one example.
When people started to know about that.
Oh, is the echo, are you muted, Stephen?
I do mute while you're talking.
So hopefully that helps.
I forgot my headphones.
I'm using a new speaker.
I'm using a new speaker.
Maybe I won't use it next time.
But here, maybe I can switch.
I think it might be on my end because I forgot my headphones, so I have to listen through the
computer.
So that's why when I mute, I think it's...
Well, we'll see if that helps.
I switch the speaker.
But, yeah, I think that that's really the other key point.
It's not some liberal agenda that is driving down the stop, right?
There might be some of that.
Sure.
You can't rule it out.
But it's always important to use Occam's Razor.
And...
The sales being down, like, especially in China, the second largest market is a big, big problem.
And the last thing I'll address on that note is people talking about, oh, Tesla's like, Tesla's not a car company.
It's a this, it's a that.
Like, okay, first of all, 90% of Tesla sales right now are cars, right?
That's from their like last 10K.
So, like, they are right now a car company, right?
But if you look at their forward PE, it's at 100 right now.
And some of that is because, you know, earnings forecasts are going down.
And that's like, A, that's higher than the rest of the mag seven by orders of magnitude, right?
And, you know, before, yes, I do think you could justify those valuations because
of the cult of personality around Elon Musk and how well he sold things.
But it has changed.
Like the perception around him has changed, especially as we're talking about for institutions.
And, you know, just, you know, they are a car company now and cars are relevant,
but anything you want to talk about.
You want to talk about the Tesla bot?
Well, any B to C situation is going to be affected in the same way as these Teslas are, right?
And who knows how much, um,
that could affect things and that's what people on Wall Street are saying to themselves and that's why there's been a problem
And yeah, the other thing there is like if you want to say like oh, maybe they'll be like you know more B to B applications
Especially on the battery side you know whatever you also have to look at things like Carlos Slim cutting a 22 billion dollar
Starlink deal, right? So it's
It's not just a B to C problem or just a B to B problem.
And you know what?
For those that say, maybe, you know, there's a new deal with Saudi Arabia, you know, maybe, you know, with the people that still love Musk, there's enough to make up room for the people that don't.
But to me, like to that I'd say.
Yeah, that's possible, but we need to see it in the numbers.
Right now, the numbers don't look good.
And until the numbers look better, that's a major problem for Tesla.
Like, I think we'll get numbers, like the numbers that I'm mainly quoting are from February.
Like, if we get bad March numbers, like, and then Tesla on April 23rd, like, has to revise down even further.
That's a big problem for Tesla stock.
Even if they're going to be fine long term, that's going to be a short term problem.
And if this sequence of events happens, like the Tesla board, that has been selling stock.
might have to consider replacing him.
Like there might not be a long term.
Like this is the kind of thing that, you know,
these board members,
even Elon Musk's brother,
has a fiduciary duty to the shareholders to manage this situation.
And if the stock goes down far enough,
they at least have to show that they're considering it or they could they could be vulnerable to
activist investors trying to take over they could be you know they could be vulnerable to you know
basically shareholder um you know whether it be institution or shareholder you know based um well probably
not shareholder given that the people that will hold it are probably very pro musk at that point but
Yeah, you start to risk having like activist actions if the CEO starts to, you know, drive
the stock down. There could very well be institute, like an institution or an activist investor
that intends to buy it up for the recovery, for replacing Musk and riding that recovery.
So I came across this list of, oh, we got the Elgado.
Oh, it's.
It's back. It's fixed now. Okay. I came across this list of the 10 largest reserves in cash in the world.
And I'm going to say the list now. I want to know if there's anything surprising for you and how the breakdown goes.
So Berkshire Hathaway, number one, $325 billion. Next closest is Google at $96 billion.
And I'll just read the list from here.
It's all, you know, around similar tens of billions.
Amazon, Microsoft, Apple, Alibaba, META, TSM, Saudi Aramco, Tesla, NVIDIA, Baidu.
So does anything surprise you on that list and the fact that Berkshire is triple the next person?
Is there anything to read into that?
I actually think the most surprising thing on the list is Google, right?
I mean, especially like it's very interesting that they're kind of sitting on this mountain
of cash, right?
When they have very like, why aren't they pumping that cash into making a better generating
product because right now they're just non-competitive even with their big head start in AI inventing
the transformer model like somehow they found themselves behind on it and it's kind of like what
we're talking about in terms of game stop right you're sitting on this pile of cash just shows
that like maybe you don't have that much faith in your ability to compete um
And yeah, like it was very interesting.
Some people on the perplexity channel when the video was shared was talking about how like
I was just like Google might be in trouble.
And all these people on the perplexity channel were like, no, like Google's not in trouble.
And it's just like, no, I don't think any of these people are a competitive like product to Google search right now.
But if you think about like, especially as they add more and more ads,
And if they don't figure out this generated AI problem,
like eventually there's going to be a product that does search better.
If they can integrate generating AI, like a lot of people
A lot of people say like Claude, a lot of B2B people I know say Claude, Anthropic is the best product, easiest to work with.
And it's like, I'm sure Amazon would love to get themselves into the search game.
You know, just basically be like, oh, like we have a great search product and we're just going to put our products like there.
We'll just like weave it in.
Yeah.
So, yeah, I think that, you know, Google is, Google is the most, like, most surprising there.
What I'm not surprised to hear is, like, Saudi Aramco.
They like, you know, you always hear about, like, deep pockets, the different things that they're investing in.
And I would actually think, um, the other one is, um, Taiwan semi.
Like, to me, like,
I would be spending that cash on things like more factories in the U.S.,
like places that you want to export into and or creating, you know,
obviously Nvidia buys from Taiwan semi.
But like,
trying to create a more like, you know, especially with China right there, trying to create a chip that was more competitive with Nvidia's GPUs. That also seems like something that you'd want to spend money on. I think
everything out like all the rest of that you know the people that you think um it's smart to keep cash especially if you want to make acquisitions um especially if you have like so much revenue coming in you don't just want to like burn through cash just for the hell of it but yeah like the ones i highlighted was for a reason like google has a major problem they need to solve
And maybe Tesla should be spending that money on a better PR team.
Like they have that problem.
But I mean, the counter argument is how can you manage a story when like it's like your CEO is like not managing his own public image in a way that, you know, people like.
Yeah, and I mean, a funny story, like, I heard this from someone else, so I don't know how true it was, but, you know, a story I saw, like, and I think we quoted here, said 94% of Germans said they would never buy a Tesla.
But apparently that went down to 70% on a vote, but like the newspaper, I guess maybe it wasn't thought of like had this actually could trace all like all of these votes that moved it down to two IP addresses.
So who could own those IP addresses?
I'm not sure.
But it kind of shows that like interesting like interesting problem solving methodology
that I think a lot of people have now, which is just like, oh no, I'm not going to make any effort
to like change my behavior to be more palatable to people.
I'd rather like, I'd rather figure it out on the back end with the technology.
So I see a comment from David asking about your thoughts on Lily.
And it's funny, David.
We actually covered this OZempic pill version on Monday on our live stream about I think
they're expecting an announcement in Q2.
But anything specific on Lily, he's saying it feels spooky to long them in this type of market.
I don't see that.
Maybe it's further up.
Oh, yeah.
Let's check it out.
I always like, I know I'm boring this way, but I always have to check the Prospero signals.
Okay.
Ooh, that downside is really creeping up on the lake.
It was even as of March 18th, it was down at 23 and now it's up at 34.
Net Options is looking pretty solid.
Technical flow okay.
Yeah, I mean, I think it's got a pretty high PE itself.
And so...
I think that there's, I think the biggest thing it has working against it is kind of, Robert Kennedy looks like that guy's name.
RFK.
I think that's a, I think his name is Robert.
I think that that's kind of a looming thing in health care, especially like healthcare that is kind of like higher tech.
Like, I think something like UNH is viewed as something that can last better than like Eli Lilly because, you know, we're not going to end the healthcare system.
But like potentially certain drugs are going to be affected by this funding, testing, things like that.
So, yeah, I think if I just saw Eli Lilly with these signals, I mean,
82 is a little low for it.
I like what I know about Eli Lilly and everything I like to, I really prefer it to be in like the high 80s for me to say, okay, I'm buying this and probably on an upswing.
It's on a bit of a down swing right now.
But like, yeah, 82 is not high enough.
And I think like, you know, sometimes there's like a disjointed nature to what I'm seeing where I'll say like, oh, like qualitatively, I like this stock.
But the singles don't like it or vice versa.
On this one, I'd say, given the risk factors I'm talking about, I think
That is pretty much what I'd expect from it in the signals.
And, you know, it's high, but not as high as it typically as when I'm adding it.
And that's just kind of the divergence right there where it's just like you're seeing the risk
visualized, right?
It still has that big upside potential, but it's going to be a little more measured because
there's this like macro risk factor there for it.
Well, everyone, we have hit that time, or it is time for the model portfolio update.
We had a great story I thought about this Amazon acquisition of One Health and AI story,
but you guys will have to tune back in Monday to hear it because that's when we'll discuss it then in detail.
But we'll do our switchover now.
See you, George, on the other side.
Everybody, stick here with me.
Thank you.
We've had over 1,100 people tune into the stream so far today.
Hopefully you enjoyed the conversation that we have had so far.
Let me make myself full screen here.
Oh, where did I go?
Let's see.
Let's see.
Let's see.
Can I get this working?
There we go. Okay. What we're going to do now, if this is your first time tuning in,
is we're going to do the model portfolio update. So George will do the live changes in the model
portfolio based on the signals that he's seeing and what's happening in the market.
Let's take a look now, see if there's any big changes that have happened as we've been talking
throughout the stream. The QQQQQ is now down less than 2%, but still down quite a bit on the day.
Haley said I have to go, but he has a bunny back there.
I wasn't kidding.
Don't let him gaslight you.
I was going to ask about that when you commented it in the beginning of the stream,
but the market was so red.
I figured we had to stay on topic today.
But you guys got a pet bunny, huh?
George has, that's why he said he's been so busy recently.
He's taking care of his new pet.
We'll have to ask him when he comes back on the other side.
Must be an indoor bunny, huh?
Okay, so I'm pulling up QQQ now to see the net option sentiment, see if anything has changed.
And we'll look at that and the spy.
QQQQ is at 15 right now, so pretty low.
And the spy is at five.
So single digits for the spy, 15 for the QQ, not too great.
I'm sure George will be a...
Managing the portfolio, probably either adding more shorts or cutting longs today, I would suspect.
But we will have to wait and see.
Taking a look at the short-term bull list in the Prospero app now, seeing if there's any new names in there.
Snapchat is up in the short-term bull list. That's a bit of a surprise there.
Spotify, Energy Transfer, MSCI.
then all of the usual suspects after that game stop still in there boeing still in there after we
saw that announcement david said he forgot about the rfk junior risk yeah yeah those stocks are uh
getting it from all sides david i actually edited the short today of us talking about
um eli lily and nova nordisk on monday so that'll be out sometime on our socials later this week
if you don't want to watch that full discussion there'll be a quick breakdown for you there
But, uh, George is back in here.
George, you got a pet bunny?
Yeah, like a while ago.
Is your camera movable?
The chat wants to see him.
What?
Can you move your camera?
The chat wants to see him.
It's a her.
She's not going to really be happy about this, and we're a little crunch for time,
but I got to give the people what they want.
All right, come here.
Come here, Goody.
Bye, go.
All right.
Here's the little bunny.
We got the comments.
We want to see her.
Oh, she's so cute.
So cute.
I know.
She's very cute.
Are you?
Are you my special little girl?
You could see her, right?
Yeah, yeah.
We could see her.
Oh, what, she normally is, she could be grumpier when I'm trying to hold her during her sleeping hours.
This is working for me.
I regret putting her down, but I can't do.
Maybe she'll hang out.
With all these red days, I just imagine you comfort holding your bunny.
That's the mark.
You can.
We lost you.
Uh-oh.
The bunny's on the keyboard.
We lost George.
We'll see if he joins back in here quickly.
What a cute bunny though.
Thanks Haley for calling out George making him show her on stream.
Bunny's help with red days.
That's what I was thinking, Kairos, right?
Yeah.
The market's going down.
You just pick up, it's like a stress bunny.
You just, you know, how could you be upset holding that little cute bunny in your arms?
That's funny.
Oh, George's back.
Did the bunny hit the keyboard?
Yeah, she ended the stream.
It's surprising.
It's like I like use a computer to like watch TV.
Oh, God.
The problem with the internet now?
Can you still hear me?
Yep, we got you.
Got you.
all right model portfolio is getting pulled up all of you bunny demanders you're really like you know
you're crunching me on time now i think it was worth it we got jill david kairos haley all all loving
the bunny in the chat well if my uh if my portfolio does poorly haley's gonna has to be the one to suffer so
Oh, can you tell me what's going on with QQQ and SPY?
Yes.
The spy is at 5.
Oh, now it's at 7.
And the QQQQ is at 15.
I think Gertie was happy that she got her day in the sun.
She's like, she's running around, all proud of herself.
All right, I got to move.
I forgot that I didn't have a...
I didn't have...
I don't know, I think I can get momentum score here.
Running into all kinds of problems.
Oh, no.
I got to go to my other computer.
Now we're really crunched.
We'll see if we can do it.
All right, everybody.
Sorry for the delay.
George will be right back when he's on his other setup.
Let me check the like total on YouTube.
See how we're doing today.
I hope we're in double digits for the bunny feature.
Let's see.
How are we doing?
I don't know why. It's getting so difficult to find the live stream. I have to like hunt it out on the channel.
What? I only see five like. Oh, no, it's jumping up to seven likes on YouTube. Thank you for everyone that's liked it already.
Let's see if we get to double digits. If you haven't clicked that like button and you're watching, please do so. It really helps our channel grow.
The YouTube algorithm is a fickle one.
all the likes comments that you guys give us helps us out tremendously trying to grow the stream so
we appreciate if you do or i do so thank you um but we have five minutes left in this trading
day so george is going to have it's going to have a rough time trying to get this model portfolio
finish we'll see here and what we're going to do is what's qqqq and sb y up seven and 15 sb y is higher
No, SPY is 7 and QQQU is 15.
Sharing.
I'm going to share in a second.
All right.
I think there's definitely not time to do all of it, so I think what I'm going to do today is not this jump right to...
Nobody else has to know that we ran out of time.
It's so weird. I feel like GWW is like it's always going between the highest and lowest.
I'll need this.
And the other dup.
We do one weird bit on the rest.
I think I want to do one hood too.
I don't think I want to double up there.
All right, everything else is good.
Let's get those shorts.
I'm right, 37.
I'm right.
It's a lot.
I really didn't even need to do the bowls here.
I'm not sure I'm going to be.
Damn it.
We already have exposure there.
All right, what do we got?
Why not?
I think we're...
I think that's the numbers I want.
Doing it. We're a little late,
but everybody got to see the bunny.
We might as well while we're all here.
Take a look at what's going on.
oh i think we're definitely going to get out of deck i feel like i'm holding a rgx for one more day
because i feel like the soonest thing i get out of it it's kind of tech okay you're definitely
getting a news corp all right i see what i'm going to do probably just so people know i'm
going to get out of the news corp maybe lucid i don't know i'll have to look at that these two
for sure and then i'm definitely getting it in a deck and maybe rg x but i'll do that on my
own time good good one today thanks for all the
Thanks for all the questions.
Glad you all got to meet Gertie.
Any last question before we go?
Fun stream.
Yeah, as you said, thank you to everybody who commented in the chat.
It makes it out the streams better when you guys do that.
So thank you.
I don't see any more comments.
So I think we're done here.
We will be back.
Usual time Monday, 11 a.m.
Everyone.
So see you then.
We'll see what's the latest and greatest in the market.
Bye, George.
