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Q2 is HERE! Discussing Price With Andy 0x68 & Wolf 0x67
Recorded: April 1, 2025 Duration: 1:41:43Space Recording
Short Summary
The discussion highlights the resilience and potential growth of the crypto market, emphasizing the importance of seasonality and market cycles. Key insights include the formation of a US digital asset reserve, the bullish potential of the Pepe Doge pair, and the ongoing demand for meme coins. The conversation also touches on the institutionalization of crypto as a legitimate asset class, suggesting a shift in market dynamics.
Full Transcription
Thank you. Thank you. so
hey guys well we're getting settled in let's uh let's get everybody to like, retweet the space.
It's pinned up top.
Let's grow it.
Let's DM some people.
Let's throw it in all your Telegram chats.
Let's throw it everywhere.
Let's spread this thing out.
Let's have some fun today.
Like and retweet the space, please. Thank you. Thank you. 76 people is not nearly enough people. You
Seventy-six people is not nearly enough people
Let's like retweet the space comment below
If we want max to cook if we want because Bitcoin to cook we're gonna have to step it up here and show these guys some respect
Let's get it over a right now let's fucking go Thank you. All righty, everybody.
Good morning, good evening, good afternoon, wherever you are in the world.
Hope everybody is doing well. Hope everybody has had a nice day so far. Apologies for last week.
I was unable to be here. Broke my heart, but I was traveling. I was visiting some family. But I am back in town.
I am back at my desk, my battle station.
Just in time for April 1.
Just in time to kick off an awesome Q2, guys.
I know the market is still kind of at a weird spot.
And everybody hates crypto right now.
But like Keck said, run it up, guys. Run it up.
Let's do this. Hit that like button. Hit that retweet button. Text your grandma. Text your mom.
Text your mailman. Text your barber. Text the person that does your nails. I don't know. I don't care.
Text the person that does your nails.
I don't know.
I don't care.
Do your part, right?
You're here.
You care about Andy and Wolf.
You care about the boys club.
You are willing to put in that extra effort and that extra time following this narrative
and this trend closer than most people.
So do this.
Tell them about it, right?
Tell them about it.
Get them in here.
I will do the heavy lifting.
I promise I will share some good, valuable insights Tell them about it. Get them in here. I will do the heavy lifting. I promise I
will share some good, valuable insights and charts with them. And generally, we're going to have a
great time today. All right, we're going to have a great time. So do your part. Click that like
button, click that retweet button, and we're going to get things rolling. Now, here's the thing. I
always say this, and then I always go on waffling forever. I'd love to have some time towards the end where we have some people come up. It could even just be, you know, I mean, it doesn't matter who, like just anybody, right? If you want to come up at some point later on, hang out, have a good time, ask a question, share a comment, whatever it may be. I'd love to hear from you. And I'm sure that the rest of the people listening would as well at some point. So I guess prepare yourselves, right? If you want to
come up later on, definitely consider doing that. I love meeting some of you guys. You guys all hear
me talk all the time, but I never get to hear you guys talk, you know, so I'm always curious who's
behind the PFPs. But anyways, we have some charts we're going to go over today.
I actually had like 10, but I think I'm just going to stick with like five, right?
I'll save something for next week.
And also, you know, in the spirit of time, I probably shouldn't do 10 charts because
I don't think I have time to go over 10 charts today.
But I do have some interesting updates.
Like there's a lot of stuff out there that I am. because I don't think I have time to go over 10 charts today. But I do have some interesting updates.
Like there's a lot of stuff out there that I'm liking the look of.
Some stuff that, you know, maybe will be familiar,
things we talked about a couple weeks ago.
Now that we're progressing through time, charts are moving.
We're seeing things shift a little bit here.
I think it makes sense to just really kind of follow up on what we've been talking about over the past, uh, even really like three, four weeks pretty consistently.
Um, but for those that don't really watch this too closely, or I guess don't really care,
there was this, today's a significant day and it's not April fool's day. That's not the
significance of the day. I was thinking that I'd come in here and just be like, guys, I've sold everything. I've sold all my Andy and my
Wolf. I'm so bearish. But I was like, no, don't do that. Someone's going to think you're real
and they're being for real and they're going to clip it and it's going to be a whole thing. So
I'm staying away from the April Fool's Day jokes because I know everybody's
a little bit sensitive right now because the market's not doing too hot. So I didn't want
anybody panicking or having a heart attack. So we're going to stay away from the jokes today.
I promise I'm not going to give you any April Fool's jokes or anything like that.
I'm too old for that, man. I'm too old for that. I'm too old for that. It used to be fun.
I've seen a few funny ones today, but anyways. All right, let's just dive into it. So it's Q2.
All right, Q1 was abysmal to my disappointment. Q1 is typically, more times than not, certainly not always, but historically, Q1 is typically
bullish leaning. This Q1 was not, right? Now, does that mean that the rest of the year is
completely cooked? Absolutely not, okay? Seasonality is very useful, And it served me well to respect it more times than it has been to fade it,
certainly. Like I can't tell you the amount of times since I started investing professionally
where we've been approaching like May and June, which by the way, summer is typically
not the best time to be trading or investing because it's very
low volatility and all the big boys take the summer off and they go hang out at their mansions
in the Hamptons and we're just stuck there in these like tight little ranges and it's just
awful. So the amount of times where I've like faded my own seasonality where I'm like, you know
what, I'm going to take a little bit of profit before the summer, you know, and then I convinced
myself, I'm like, no, no, no, we look so good.
Summer is going to be bullish this time.
I can tell you, I've done that numerous times.
There's been many summers where I've sat there, unfortunately, looking at the screen a little
bit more than I should have, because I didn't respect seasonality.
But there's also been some really bullish summers. Like I remember last bull market, it was, what was it?
It was the summer of, what was it? Summer of 21. I think they were, they called it at the time for
those that were around, maybe you'll remember it was soul summer, right? It was, it was Solana
summer and Solana at the time was maybe like 20, 30, 40 bucks, something like that. And we actually had a pretty bullish altcoin summer.
I believe it was 2021.
It was last cycle.
So there's some times that seasonality works.
There's some times that it doesn't.
It's just like anything else.
It's just another tool or data point to sort of keep in mind to form,
you know, help kind of form your bias. But just because
a quarter is bad doesn't mean the year is cooked, right? It'd be like,
you know, it'd be like just because there's a couple eggs in the dozen that are not good doesn't
mean the entire dozen is spoiled. So basically, we had a shitty Q1, right? But that doesn't preclude us from
having a bullish second half of the year or even like, you know, Q2, Q3, Q4, we have 75% of the
year left. Like we have a majority of the year still right in front of us. Now, sure, you guys
have been seeing all the headlines that are, headlines that are pretty intently focused on what the resolution is going to be.
But tomorrow is being coined by the president of the US, Trump, as Liberation Day, where
we're going to get some more clarity on these tariffs.
And we're starting to see some headlines and speculation come in today and things like
that.
But tomorrow is Liberation Day.
That's what he's calling it.
So the bears in the room are like, oh, he's going to that. But tomorrow is liberation day. That's what he's calling it.
So the bears in the room are like, oh, he's going to liberate you from all your money.
The bulls in the room are like, all right, everybody thinks it's a sell the news event we've been selling for 90 days straight. It's going to be another sell the news event, you know.
Look, here's the thing about the market is news headlines, whether they're good or bad,
they're usually just used as an opportunity to, it has more to do with positioning than it does
the news, right? And a prime example of that, dozens of examples has been, think about all
the positive news headlines that we've had over the past quarter, and price has been going down, right? I mean, we get news earlier this year, the US is forming a digital asset reserve, and
it's going to be holding and potentially even buying shit coins, right?
Bullish, we pump for one Sunday and then immediately reverse and sell off, right?
Positioning was skewed aggressively to the
upside. Positioning unwinds. There's been so many other bullish catalysts, like the SEC officially
drops its case against Ripple. Ripple pumps like 10% on that day, retraces, right? Has more to do
with positioning than the actual announcement. So many other little instances, right? You know,
just good stuff that just doesn't
seem to have an effect on price because it has more to do with positioning than anything.
So how are we positioned right now? Well, I feel as though based on the data that I've seen,
and certainly the sentiment, that most people are out of this market or have
been cleaned out, right? There's not many that are still bullish after a pretty gruesome quarter.
And for good reason, right? Like it's hard to want to look at a lot of these charts and be like,
oh, I'm just amped up. Like I'm just so excited. Like these charts just look so amazing and
prosperous. Well, not quite yet. They're starting to look like that.
And that's what we're going to talk about.
But I think there's a lot of people prematurely throwing in the towel and conflating, you know,
a 90-day bias with a 365-day what should be bias or outlook, right?
And it's easy to do because a lot can happen in 90 days in crypto, right?
90 days in crypto feels like
years in legacy finance. I mean, things move really quickly and we trade on weekends and
it truly is the embodiment of the free market. There's no circuit breaker halts. There's no
like holding the floor up. Like when things turn sour, you go through these, you know, these prolonged periods of
extreme despair. But also the reason we're all in crypto is because we know that it goes both ways.
You go through these very dramatic periods of being oversold with, you know, good news is bad
news. Bad news is bad news. Everybody wants to sell. Everybody wants to pile in on the FUD. But then when things turn
up, you get the exact opposite. You get these crazy bubbles and overextensions to the upside
that can give you, you know, a hundred years of returns in, you know, legacy finance, but in
crypto over a matter of like six months or less. Right. And that's ultimately why most of us are
here is because one, we love the spirit of
the free market, what it represents. We love the freedom of crypto. And we're also here to make
money, right? And as most of us are, I would assume younger-ish people, not all of us, but
younger-ish, there's a really unbelievable, if you can stomach the volatility opportunity,
if you can deal with the pain that comes along with it, the growing pains, the volatility,
the emotions, there's no better place, no better arena to be playing in than crypto. But again,
you got to be able to deal with the ups and downs. And by the way, I can tell you
my reach through my account and then
through, you know, our company account, because Bitcoin, I watch our social metrics pretty closely
on YouTube, on X, our spaces, our shows, our tweets, like engagement is way down, right?
Even on like the generic news tweets that we have and news coverage, right? I mean,
it's like a lot of people
are just done here you know and they've given up they're like i can't take this anymore like just
make it stop right and i can tell you i've been in this game long enough and i i say this with
you know and i mean it this market has a way of rewarding those with the highest pain tolerance
has a way of rewarding those with the highest pain tolerance, the most threshold for bullshit,
right? Those that can endure the worst of the worst are rewarded with the best of the best,
and it usually happens pretty quickly. And I've said this in numerous spaces, and you guys are,
I'm sure, all very familiar with this example, but think about what happened early last year,
what happened early last year, right? January, February, March, April of 2024. Pepe went on to
do something unbelievable. It dropped like 55% from December, middle of December through like
middle of February. It was like a two month bleed. I'm kind of going from memory, but roughly around there. It was about a 60-day bleed down 50% plus early last year. And then in a matter of 38 days, Pepe went up 10x.
And that's crypto. Just as quick as it's so over, we can turn to it is so back.
And there's a lot of people that capitulated on their Pepe bags, the premier Ethereum beta blue chip.
And I would argue, I would say, and I don't think it's outlandish or premature to declare this, the golden goose of this cycle.
One of the best performing tickers in the entire market from bear market low to where it peaked out, you know, end of last year. Without question,
the data backs it up. The narrative backs it up. On-chain holder count backs it up. Pepe almost
has 420,000 on-chain holders. I mean, that's unbelievable, right? And a lot of us were in
that really early, myself included. I'm still holding with full size. I've done nothing but add. My Pepe bag has grown 2x the size. I own
twice as many Pepe tokens that I did this time last year, right? Because I believe in it. I
understand what's driving this market. I understand the conditions. I'm happy to buy the fear. I'm not
afraid of it. Certainly not having fun, right? But I'm patient. I've been through this before. A lot of you guys have as well. But, you know, looking at things like Andy and Wolf, right? Down,
you know, 85%. For one, both have been down this percentage before. And then in a matter of months,
they make new highs. These things happen, right? But I want to give kind of, this is a bit of an
abstract example, but I'd like to
share it with you because maybe it will ring true to some of you guys, and then we're going to get
into some charts, okay? It's a bit abstract, but put on your creative hats and bear with me on this
one. Now, I have a family member right now, and she was diagnosed with cancer somewhat recently,
and she's going through chemo.
And I was doing some research cause I don't really know much about, you know, cancer.
Right.
And I was just kind of trying to understand like what's actually going on.
What does her treatment look like?
What's it doing to her body?
Right.
I mean, I, I of course heard of cancer like anybody, right.
I've had family members, affected friends, things like that.
This is my aunt.
And I was like, let me just like understand what's happening here. And of course, I'm certainly not
a doctor. And if you are, I'm probably going to butcher this a little bit. But from my research
of it, very surface level is like chemo, it basically attempts to kill all of the cancer cells in your body. But in doing so, you end up killing a lot of healthy cells at the same time, right?
Which is why people get really sick and they lose their hair and things like that, right?
So you can't just target the cancer cells.
You're targeting everything.
It's like on the cellular level, not only are, you know, the bad cells being killed,
but also the good, healthy ones that you don't want killed. But in order to cleanse your body
of this sickness and this disease, there's some collateral damage, right? Now, I think looking at
the market like a living, breathing organism, which it very much so is, very much so living
and breathing, it sort of
has a consciousness of its own it's a collective consciousness of everybody in crypto all the
market participants the funds everything right it's living and it's breathing the one of the
first things that popped into my mind and maybe i maybe i need to seek help that this popped into
my mind but i start reading up on this like chemo process that she's going through. And what I thought, as it's funny as it may seem,
one of the first things that popped into my mind was our market, our crypto market had cancer.
Like there was a lot of cancerous cells in this market, right? Think about like all the degeneracy,
all the gambling, millions of
tokens that are worthless, rug pulls, you know, being launched every single day, the pump fun
type of shit that you see, you know, every day there's a new rug pull. Every day there's a new
scam, memes, influencers, exploitations. I mean, all this stuff, like truly like cancerous cells,
millions of cancerous cells within this
living, breathing organism that we call crypto, that we all inhabit. And the way that the market
treats this through its own sort of chemotherapy process is aggressive flushes. In order for it to
heal, it must flush out all of the cancerous cells. But in doing so, the safe, you know, the good,
the healthy cells, the ones that we don't want to be affected are unfortunately affected as well,
right? So the cancerous cells get obliterated. They go to zero. They get nuked. Minus 99%,
some even more, right? They're gone for good. They're never coming back.
But the healthy cells, they go on to recover very quickly once the cancer
is removed, right? They recover very quickly. The cancerous ones don't. Now, kind of an abstract
and weird example, but that's what these flushes serve to do. They serve to remove the cancerous
cells. And then we hope, you know, and we find out which ones are the good cells, the healthy ones,
the ones that we want to stick around.
So it's like when I look at something like a Pepe or an Andy or a wolf, right?
My blue chips, the ones that I love, the ones that I know are not cancerous cells, the ones that are healthy, the ones that deserve to stick around, right?
They're negatively affected by this flushing that we see as well, right? So it's a
healing process. It's a natural flush. It's a healing process that must occur for the longevity
and the sustainability and health of our market. So I have no doubts at all that our healthy cells
are going to recover from this flush, this process, and they're going to recover quickly
once the cancer is removed. And I would say at this point, I mean, look at the pump fund volume, right? Go
on chain and look at some of these tickers that were, you know, the very heavy KOL pushes from,
you know, last year, they're not coming back. They're gone. They're not holding any type of
floor. There's no structure. there's no volume i'm not
talking about like less volume i'm talking like they're done the cancer has been removed the flush
served as purpose we went through our own chemo process here in crypto and now it's time for the
healthy cells to recover so kind of an abstract little example but it it was something that um
popped into my mind when I was reading about this.
I've always viewed the market as like this organism, right?
Like this living, breathing organism.
And then I start looking at all these tokens and the lack of pump fund volume and all the lack of new tickers and new shills.
It's like it's dead, right? They're not
coming back, you know, and I'm sure we'll pump again. And then the same cycle kind of, you know,
just keeps happening over and over again, but like the flush that we needed occurred. Right.
And there's been so many people over the, you know, the months and actually today is officially
my one year anniversary from when I first bought Andy,
which is funny. So over the year or months or quarters that I've been invested in these tickers
and this market playing these meme coins that I still believe are generational plays. If you can
deal with the volatility, people would ask me all the time, like, are you worried about dilution? You know, are you worried about,
you know, these, a lack of, of concentration as it pertains to liquidity? Like there's too many tickers out there for these things to go to billions. And I would say to them and kind of back
of mind, I'm like, they aren't entirely wrong, but I never thought it would get as bad as it did.
Right. Where we, I think at our peak, we had like 40
million tokens or something like that, which is just ridiculous. Absolutely insane, not sustainable.
And now these things are worthless vapor where they're never coming back. They have no on-chain
liquidity, no volume, nothing. The market's dead. Now it's time to heal. They had asked me,
are you worried about this phenomenon that we're seeing,
like this crazy dilution, the crazy competition for liquidity? Because in previous cycles,
we really just had like Doge and Shib, and then a few more, but it was really nothing like this
cycle at all. And I'd say no, because people recognize quality, right? They recognize,
hey, you know, I want to buy stuff and hold it for a cycle rather than like every day,
try to buy some new shit coin. And that's where I was wrong is that
I gave the market and its participants a little bit too much credit. I thought that they wouldn't
chase too much. I thought that they would
see kind of the value proposition of like quality and what was being built. And they would stay away
from like the crazy over rotations and the gambling, but that actually wasn't the case.
Not at all. And I'll tell you this, most people that were playing in the trenches or playing in memes are zeroed out, right? Because they'd buy
something, it'd go down 50, 60%, and then they'd take the rest of that capital and they'd buy
something else that was new. And then it'd go down 50 or 60%. And then they'd buy something
else that was new, minus 50, 60%. And then they'd lever up and then they'd get liquidated. And it's
like, a lot of people are zeroed out after this, right? A lot of people are zeroed out. So even if you're down like 80%
on your portfolio, the fact that if you still hold your positions, you still hold your bag,
I actually think that that puts you in a very small, more exclusive than it may seem group of
people that are still fighting and living to see another day in this
market, right? And a lot of what we've done here over the months of running these spaces is not
like, hey, we're going to go up tomorrow, right? But it's trying to help people understand what's
actually moving these tickers that they're invested in, right? So they can make educated
decisions on their own. If ETH goes down 50%, Andy and Wolf are going down 80%,
Pepe's going down 70%, right? I think everybody in here at this point, if you're still around
listening to these spaces and holding your bag, you thoroughly understand what has happened to
your positions and why they're moving the way that they moved. And if at any point you wanted
to make a decision to pivot because you're like, hey, look, ETH set to, you know, 2200, it's going to go down to 1800.
You could have sold, probably bought back lower, right? So helping people make decisions,
not based off of emotions, but based off of the market mechanics, the things that are actually
driving this market. Okay. So kind of, kind of a tangent, but an abstract example, right? Like this is the part of the healing process
that the market needed to flush out the scams.
It needed to flush out the things that were not sustainable.
They were not supposed to be here.
Get rid of the bad actors,
the people that are preying on this market.
And at this point, I think it's very, very sufficient, right? I think it's been
thorough enough to consider it flushed, I would say. But hopefully some of those examples
strike a chord with you. They certainly did for me. But let's do this. I'm going to pull up a
chart. We're going to go over some bigger picture type of stuff, and then we're going to narrow it
in a little bit, okay? So do me a favor while I
pull up this first chart. I want you to do me this favor. I want you to hit that heart button.
I want you to hit the retweet button. Help me out here. We got 240 people in here. I know this is
what I was talking about. Engagement's a little bit lower. I remember when Andy and Wolf were at
their peaks, we had like 500 people in here, right? So like half of the normal people are gone, which by the way, is a super bullish thing, but they've been
cleansed. The hitchhikers are gone. They don't want to be here when times get rough. They're
not thinking about crypto. They're thinking about how down bad they are. They're thinking about how,
oh, I just don't want anything to do with crypto. We're entering some crazy recession. We're not.
I'm looking at the data.
This was a really, really nasty technical correction.
We could go over all the reasons why,
but I think our time is probably better served
talking about some charts, right?
What do the technicals tell us?
Okay, so anyways, help me out.
Hit the retweet button, hit the like button.
Let me get the first chart queued up.
We're going to start with a Bitcoin chart. from actually two Bitcoin charts from a cyclical perspective.
All right.
So give me just one second to get this up.
Hit the retweet.
Hit the like.
Give me like 15, 20 seconds. Almost done.
All right.
Hang on.
Hang on.
Hang on.
Let me get it up in the nest for you guys.
Okay. First chart is up in the nest. It's a cool visual.
Feel free to check that out. Pull your phones out of your pocket. Check it out. So the first
chart that I have right here is a Bitcoin chart, right? And why are we talking
about Bitcoin? We should be talking about Andy and Wolf. We're coming full circle, I promise,
but it all comes back to Bitcoin. Andy and Wolf will not perform well unless ETH does something.
ETH will not do anything if Bitcoin is not recovering from this low. So we need to focus
on like the root, right? The thing that drives everything in this market being Bitcoin.
Now, I made this indicator to help provide an easy visual to understanding how this market moves through its cycles, how it rotates around the halvings, things like that.
So this indicator breaks down the Bitcoin halving into, things like that. Okay. So this indicator breaks down the halving, the Bitcoin
halving into 10 different periods. Okay. Each one is just over a hundred days. Okay. It's actually
a little bit more private. It's like 150 days, 146 days. And all the halvings are marked out
with these vertical lines. Okay. Having one, having two, having three, having four. We could
look at the first one, but the first cycle was obviously a little bit different. Bitcoin was like under a hundred bucks at the
time of the 2012 halving, but it's included anyways, right? It's an automated indicator,
which if I don't think I've published it yet, but I'm going to later. Because what's cool is you
can actually, like I could pull up Andy and Wolf and it would color the candles based on the bitcoin having for andy and wolf
which is which is pretty cool so looking at this indicator give me one second
looking at this indicator it provides a really clear visual as to like the phases of the having
as it's happened historically and where we are right now
and you can see pretty clearly like what typically happens through each phase right you have the having and then you get that light green period okay it's a little bit different every time but
it's typically like bullish leaning but not that bullish right it's like you kind of just have the
having you'll usually get like one big shakeout during that period. We had one after the most recent halving in April, April,
May, June. We had one again, look at the third halving, like little move up in the nasty shakeout
right before the bull market. Second halving, same thing. But anyways, if you look at the table in
the upper right, you can see the average return percentage during each of the 10 periods, right?
So typically, period one is bullish or bullish leaning, okay?
Period two is typically pretty bullish.
Average return is 192%, okay?
This time it was not quite 192, but it was bullish.
Period two was bullish. Okay. We had a
nice markup from November, December, you know, January, we started to bleed in a little bit,
but like dark green period two, bullish. Period three is what we're in right now. Okay. If you
look at the table in the upper right, there is 93 days left of period three. Period three is
typically our most bullish period, right? The average percentage return of period three. Period three is typically our most bullish period, right? The
average percentage return during period three post Bitcoin halving is plus 327%. Now,
you're not going to likely get a plus 327% return because this considers 2013, 2014,
when Bitcoin was like under a thousand bucks, we had a crazy, crazy pump, right? So the
data gets skewed a little bit. But typically, this is a very bullish period, okay? So we still
have three months left. We basically have all of this quarter, April, May, June, 93 days left
of the most bullish, historically speaking, the most bullish period post-Bitcoin
halving. Okay. 93 days left. And then that's followed up with another very bullish period,
period four, with an average return of plus 63.97% or 64%. So we still have, you know, 93 days left
in this period and then 146 in the next one, right? We have like, you know, 93 days left in this period and then 146 in the next one.
Right.
We have like, you know, 240, 230 days of historically bullish Bitcoin having seasonality in front of us.
Despite what the macro says, despite what everyone's yapping about, just purely looking at over a decade's worth of data
surrounding Bitcoin's price action and its halvings, you can see where we are. We're actually
still very early within this sort of halving cycle, right? And we have the most bullish period
of time right in front of us. That doesn't mean that these shakeouts haven't been nasty.
It doesn't mean that altcoins haven't gotten bludgeoned because they have.
But it means that we still have 230 roughly days of bullish Bitcoin halving seasonality in front of us.
And we know that in order for our memes to do well, we need ETH to recover, which means we certainly need Bitcoin to recover.
And I like the seasonality that we have in front of us.
It looks good to me. I don't see why things would be materially different.
We actually have a very bullish macro backdrop. We talked two weeks ago about QT and QE
and Fed policy here in the US. Halvings just so happened to work out with like global macro cycles. Some will say, you know,
Satoshi knew and we're on this like global cycle. Some will say it's a coincidence.
I don't really care. It just happens to work out where it lines up with U.S. presidential elections,
which typically lines up with like seasonality and cycles of not only crypto, but stocks.
of not only crypto, but stocks. And we are transitioning right now, like right now,
April, May, June from QT, which is bearish, right? The shrinking of the Fed's assets
into a basically like a neutral position, not going right into QE right now, but stopping QT,
right? Which is good for liquidity conditions, which is generally
bullish for the market, you typically don't see a cycle ending when QT is coming to an end.
When QT ends, it typically means, hey, unless we're entering a recession and they're doing
emergency cuts and liquidity injections in the form of QE, when QT ends, it means that financial conditions
are softening. They're loosening. They're becoming easier and more bullish. So QT is about to end as
we're entering the most bullish periods, three and four, of our post-Bitcoin halving cycle.
So there's actually a lot of evidence to suggest that we are like in the middle of our cycle, not the very end of our cycle.
Right. Despite what everybody wants to tell you.
So anyways, that's the first chart. I thought it was an interesting visual.
But again, it all comes back to Bitcoin.
So it's like we have to we have to understand what's going on with Bitcoin to understand what's likely going to happen in the near term with all of our
other stuff. All right, let's pull up another chart here. Talked about this one before. While
I'm getting this queued up, hit the retweet, hit the like, and give me 30 seconds. All right. all right let me get that second one up in the nest for you guys so it's easy to find
all right all right everybody check that out just put another chart up in the nest
okay check it out pull your phones out of your Now, this is a chart we spent quite a bit of time talking about, like the Bitcoin cycles charts.
Okay, so we just went over these periods of the halvings, right?
What typically happens, you know, into a Bitcoin halving and then post Bitcoin halving.
Okay.
So now what we have here is we have Bitcoin's current cycle, which is in purple.
The previous cycle, which is in purple, the previous cycle, which is in yellow, and then the 2015, 16, 17 cycle.
So two cycles ago in green.
And I've got them here.
This is on the BB terminal.
OK, so for those of you that use it, you have this chart at your disposal at any time. And what we've done here is we've overlaid from bear market bottom
through global cycle peak and then the first three months of the bear market just to kind of show how
the cycle ends. What we have here is we have basically like all the cycles from bear market
bottom through the end of the cycle all overlaid with one another. Okay. Now we've spent a lot of
time talking about this idea of like time-based mean reversion.
Now, something that you'll notice about halfway through this chart, if you look at the bottom,
if you look at the x-axis on this chart, you'll see at about the 500 number at the bottom,
that's days, okay?
From bear market bottom, 500 days, very bottom x-axis.
You'll see that our current cycle in purple back in March when Bitcoin
first topped out at about 73, made an all-time high before the halving, we were ahead of the
previous two cycles. We were ahead of the previous two cycles. And then we went through a very
prolonged eight-month range, time-based mean reversion. We sunk up perfectly with the previous
two cycles. See how that purple line was out in front, above and ahead of the yellow and the green cycles,
the last cycle and two cycles ago?
And then we went through a prolonged period of time-based mean reversion,
synced up perfectly with the previous two cycles,
and now we're actually lagging the previous two cycles.
Now, is this a problem?
No, not at all, right?
Think of this chart, like visualize with your mind, like a mean, right?
If you were to take an average of all of these lines, just draw a line through the middle
of all of them, what would it look like, right?
You can more or less visualize what that would be.
Now, we went from March of last year being ahead of schedule to now March and April,
because now it's April 1st, March and April of
this year, being slightly behind the previous two cycles. Now, you'll notice something with
cycle four or our previous cycle, the last one. Look at the yellow line. The yellow line,
comparing it to the green one, so comparing last cycle to two cycles ago, our bull market,
the majority of it was way out in front of the green cycle,
two cycles ago. Last cycle, we were way ahead of where we were two cycles ago. And then we went
through a very prolonged period of time-based mean reversion, okay? Synced back up with the
previous cycle, and then actually concluded our cycle a little bit behind two cycles ago. Okay. So the
yellow was ahead of the green and then it went through multiple months of, you know, kind of a
mid cycle bear market or prolonged correction, whatever. And then, you know, we kind of curled
our way back up and finished at 69 K made a new high. Um, but that was it cycles over. So it's
not a problem that we're like ahead or behind leading
or lagging previous cycles. Not at all. It's just something that happens. So we're slightly behind
the previous two cycles right now, but that doesn't mean that we're not going to rip from here and end
up meeting up with the previous two cycles at some point. I would actually wager that it's probably
likely that we do now have some data to suggest,
hey, conditions are turning bullish.
We had a much needed flush heading out of QT into like a neutral state for Fed policy.
There's a lot of bullish crypto legislation.
Again, the cancerous cells of crypto, all the shit coins, the pump funds, all that shit is gone.
We're slightly lagging the previous cycles, but not in like a really awful way. It's just like something that's happening. So we're,
I would consider like well within our, you know, our historic average and within our expectations
of the cycle, slightly lagging, but also a year ago from today, we were slightly leading.
You go above, then you go below. It's like what happened with COVID for the previous cycle.
In March of 2020, or I guess February, March of 2020, we were ahead of the 2016-2017 cycle. Then
we had COVID nuke and we were below, And then we recovered hard and expanded to the upside well ahead of the 2016-2017 cycle. So we are still on track from a cyclical perspective.
And what I'm seeing right here is not something to be afraid of. It's not something to be
concerned of. It's not something to say this cycle's derailed and the cycle's that materially
different, right? I would actually argue the opposite. Things look totally fine to
me. The cycle is very much so still on track. So just wanted to show that visual as well,
looking at the previous two cycles. I think it's an interesting look.
Now, we're going to get a little bit more granular now. I've got a third chart that I'm going to pull hit that retweet hit that like let me get the next chart up so we talked about this chart
i posted something last week um and i'm following up with it today all right i'm following up with
it today because i think it's really important.
So take a look in the nest.
I just posted another chart, guys.
Give everybody a second to navigate to it.
Okay.
What we have here is, in my view, the most important chart in shit coins.
All right.
The Pepe Doge pair chart.
We've talked about this before. I think most of you know what this chart is at this point.
This chart is our, it's basically ETH BTC, but it's for meme coins, right? Because Doge is our Bitcoin of meme coins. It's our 10-year-old, over 10-year-old, proof of work, literal fork of
Bitcoin. It's like the grandchild of Bitcoin. Time-tested, proven, cyclically triumphant
meme coin, Doge, the king of memes, right? Against our new up-and-comer, our beta,
the one that really should outperform the alpha
because why would you hold any beta
if it's not going to outperform your alpha?
You wouldn't, right?
I always say this with any altcoin,
not just memes, not just, you know, my bags.
It's like, why would you hold any altcoin
if it's not pair trading well against Bitcoin?
Because just hold Bitcoin then,
right? And most altcoins do not outperform Bitcoin. But those that do, you look at the pair charts and you say, all right, I can take on more risk here. The pair is telling me something.
It makes sense. I like it. I'll take a shot at outperforming Bitcoin here. So in the meme world,
you have to say to yourself before you make any investment, all right, how does it look against Doge?
Because why would I hold any meme coin that doesn't look strong against its Doge pair?
Because if I want meme coin exposure, why would I not just hold Doge?
Well, I wouldn't unless I think that my meme is going to outperform
Doge. And the best way to go about deciphering that is finding these pairs, right? Finding these
pairs. So I'm only showing like the recent bit of price action. I'm showing like six or seven
months of price action here on this chart. Not that much, but I'll tell you this. And I covered
this last week in the week before we've been watching it very closely because something's going on with this pair.
When the Pepe Doge pair chart breaks higher, we have never, ever, ever, not once,
we've never seen the market take a shit, and we've never seen bearish conditions
when the Pepe Doge pair chart breaks higher.
When your beta outperforms your alpha, it's very, very bullish, not just for the pair,
not just for your ticker pair, but for what it represents for the broader market.
And what we have here is a very bullish structure with a very strong
attempt at pushing higher. We've been watching this since the lows. We have a very clear range
here, range high, range low, clear mid-range with a bullish diagonal compression. Back in March,
we came back and we swept the range low wIC perfectly and got an immediate bullish buyback.
Is it a coincidence? No. It means that smart money, big money, guys that actually moved this
market are pair trading these against each other. Beta meme versus time-tested Bitcoin-ish meme,
right? Your beta versus your alpha. We've never seen Pepe Doge pair break higher and the market takes a shit. It's been quite the
opposite. It basically has been the most perfect this entire cycle over a year of watching this
pair, which by the way, this pair helped me with my initial positioning in Pepe to begin with in
2023, which I'm still holding in full size. And I said this in the beginning of the space,
I've actually doubled the amount of Pepe that I own from 2023 until right now. We've never seen this pair break higher
and conditions are bearish. This has been a leading pair. It's been a really strong signal
this entire cycle. And what we're seeing right now, and it's early, I've told you guys this for
like two, three weeks now. It's early because we still
have work to do. We got to get back above our mid-range. We got to confirm this breakout.
Okay. We're getting really close. But what we're seeing right now is an attempt, right? That's
what we've been saying for three weeks now. We're seeing an attempt at a bullish push here on,
in my view, one of the most bullish beta alpha pairs that has been
honestly like 10 out of 10 for risk on for this market for over a year now. And I'll say this fun
fact again, this pair has never broken to the upside and we've seen bearish conditions for
the general market, specifically not the meme coins that we all care most about, the boys club.
general market, specifically not the meme coins that we all care most about, the boys club.
So why so much focus on Pepe Doge? Well, obviously, you guys all understand that like
Andy and Wolf are only going to rip higher when Pepe rips higher. And Pepe is really only going
to rip higher when it's outperforming Doge, which is moving up. So you understand this giant
interconnected web where we need Bitcoin to move up, because then it means ETH is going to move up. And then when ETH moves up, Pepe gets the all clear. We don't even need ETH
to do much. We just need ETH to like not nuke, right? We've seen ETH range and Pepe rips 200%.
The bar has been set incredibly low, incredibly low for the conditions that we need in order for
our memes, our beta train, the boys club to rip
higher. So you need Bitcoin because you need ETH because you need Doge because you need Pepe. And
then you get Andy and Wolf, right? A lot of layers to this thing, but the real signal, the real
canary in the coal mine here, the real signal that we need to tell us yes or no is Pepe Doge. Because Doge
really only moves up when Bitcoin moves up or when it's about to move up. And Pepe really only moves
up when Doge moves up, which needs Bitcoin to move up, right? So there's so many layers to this
thing, but we're seeing for the first time in months, months, this pair topped out in October.
We're seeing for the first time a very strong and clear attempt at a bullish structural shift
on this pair. So a little bit more work to do, but it's, like I said, it is absolutely worth
watching at this point. Absolutely. Multiple weeks of uptrending. All of March, we've been trying to move up into
this compression, hopefully see a breakout. I'm pretty excited about it. Like I said,
still work to be done, but good. All right. Hit that retweet. Hit that like. I got another chart
coming up. We're going to narrow it down just a little bit here, okay?
Almost done.
Alright.
Next chart coming up right now. All right, guys, check that out. Check it out, check it out.
We are up in the nest. All right, we're going to start with Andy, and then we got a wolf chart
coming up next, guys. So, a little fun fact, I've been doing some coding.
I don't know how to code.
I know how to read code for the most part.
Limitations, of course. But now in this new age that we find ourselves in, a guy like me is able to use my brain and my creativity and my understanding of trading and markets to code with multiple AI tools.
I started working on this indicator probably about four and a half months ago,
maybe almost five months ago. Started working on it like November of last year,
kind of just sat on it, wasn't perfect, decent. And during this entire bleed, I was like, I need
to fix this. I need to figure this out. I'm so close to cracking this thing. And what else did
I have to do, right? What am I going to stare at the market, nuking every single day off of good
news? No. So this thing turned out, I mean, honestly, way better than I even thought, right?
So this thing turned out, I mean, honestly, way better than I even thought, right?
I have no intention of commercializing this thing.
I'm happy to share it and cover it and post about it.
But I built it for me, right?
But I want to talk about it because I back-tested this thing on every single ticker.
It's got a pretty unbelievable track record.
And what we're seeing right here is some additional confirmation
of a bullish trend starting. Okay. So I've, I'm calling this thing just for purposes of like
discussion. It doesn't even need a name because it's just for me, the volume fusion pro. Now,
basically what it does is it creates, um, it basically creates like a trend. Okay. And it's based off of actual buying
and selling, right? Like order flow. It's not RSI. It's not stochastic. It's not like an
oscillator like MACD. This is collecting data from every single timeframe, every single exchange.
And it's creating this, this trend, one line, doesn't matter
what timeframe you look at it on. And it's basically telling you, hey, are we seeing more
buying than selling? Are we seeing more selling than more buying? And it's got a pretty unbelievable
track record. Again, I've backtested this thing on every single ticker, every single timeframe.
What's interesting about it is it actually gave a risk on signal, which of course, I've backtested this thing on every single ticker, every single time frame. What's interesting about it is it actually gave a risk on signal, which, of course, I only finished this thing, you know, three weeks ago.
It gave a risk off signal for Andy at about 240 million.
OK, 240 million market cap, pretty close to the high.
And it's been risk off all the way until basically the very tail end of
March, which is when we started to see more buyers show up than sellers or the same amount of buyers,
but just sellers slowing down, right? That gap is closing. That imbalance is closing.
Now, I find this very interesting because we're seeing the Pepe Doge pair start to turn up.
Bitcoin starting to show some signs of life, right?
There's like I've been saying, there's still work to be done.
But what we're seeing right here is the first attempts at a shift in the trend and the structure of a lot of these important pairs and individual tickers that we've seen since basically late last year.
Now, there's still work to be done, and we need Bitcoin to start moving up,
and we need ETH to start moving up, and we need Doge to start moving up, and then we need Pepe
to start moving up, and we need to start moving up more than Doge, and then and only then do we get
the golden zone, the Andy Wolf rippers. But you can see very clearly on this chart, there are suddenly more buyers than sellers,
right?
We are starting to see a very slow gradual shift in the trend, which is why I've been
buying down here.
I've been buying more Andy down here.
I've also been slowly buying a little bit more Wolf down here.
I have more exposure to both now than I ever had.
Because I can read the data and I can say, hey, something is different right now than
it has been since December 15th through 18th when this thing has been going risk off on
Bitcoin, ETH, Pepe, Andy, Wolf, all of them.
Something's different right now.
We're seeing a very obvious and measurable attempt
at bullish structural shifts and trends to the upside.
Buyers are trying to step in here.
So we're going to keep following this pretty closely here,
but I'm letting you know that I am personally buying down here
because I understand what's moving this market and I like the RR down here, the risk to reward. Now let's look at that
same thing, but with Wolf. Okay. Hit that retweet button. Let me get this next chart pulled up here.
all right time for wolf on the volume fusion pro all right you guys are gonna like this one
all right wolf chart is on it's up there check the the nest, guys. For everyone in the Wolf Pack, check this out.
After going risk off damn near the top for Wolf, what are we seeing? We're seeing buyers stepping
in here. We are starting to get our first bit of risk on signal since going risk off in the middle of
December. Very interesting. Same exact thing as Andy. If you look at the indicator on the bottom,
that thick horizontal blue line right in the middle is our zero line. When the black line
officially crosses the zero line, that's officially.
There are more buyers down here than sellers.
I have the settings sped up.
It'll take me a while to explain exactly how this works.
I'll do it later.
I'll probably make a video or something like that, especially as we kind of track how these
play out here.
But when you get above that zero line, it's official.
There are more buyers than sellers, or there's the same amount of buyers as there was before,
but sellers have slowed down so dramatically that they've actually flipped, right?
So we're starting to see the first bit of risk on behavior on these individual USD pairs.
Pepe looks the same way.
Andy, obviously, we just went over.
Wolf, we're going over right now.
All coming in confluence with Pepe Doge trying to break higher here.
Now, again, we have work to do.
These are early signals.
I've intentionally sped these signals up, which is more risky.
I could wait for some confirmation, okay?
I could wait for Pepe Doge to move up a little bit higher.
I could slow down the signals on my indicator.
I don't mind some false positives and things like that from time to time right i like to be able to make the decision for
myself based on broader conditions i'm not just buying because it says buy i'm buying because it
says buy and i can back it up with other supporting pairs right but i'm looking at this here i'm
saying it's measuring that there are now more buyers than there were
sellers, which is the first time we've seen that since December 15th through 18th, when every
single ticker that I watch, all my memes, Bitcoin, ETH, all my majors on my watch list, the first
time we've seen more buyers than sellers since the middle of December. It's now April 1st.
seen more buyers than sellers since the middle of December. It's now April 1st. I'm happy to
take some swings down here. Absolutely. I think it's fantastic RR for me personally,
but everybody has to make their own decisions, right? Everybody wanted Wolf at 200 million.
Nobody wants it at 25. That's the truth. That's the truth. Everybody wanted Andy at $300 to $400 million. Nobody wants it at $40 million.
I want it. I absolutely want it. I want more. I view it as an unbelievable opportunity.
I believe it's very defined risk. I believe the charts look good. I believe the supporting pair
charts look good. I believe the market has been flushed of its cancer. And we have data backing
up that we are seeing an attempt. We are seeing a very obvious
attempt at buyers stepping in here. Again, that's not my opinion. I'm literally measuring this. I
have data to support this. We now have more buyers than sellers down here and it's early,
but we're seeing the flows shift. So I'm happy to try to ride these waves.
But anyways, those are the five charts I had for you guys today.
I wanted to go over those.
We talked about Bitcoin.
We talked about Pepe Doge.
We talked about Andy and Wolf.
Again, I had more charts to share, but I got to save some for next week.
And I feel like that was a pretty good little cook there.
But anyways, we're going to hear from some of the guys up here.
Now that I'm done with my spiel, I hope you guys enjoyed seeing some of those charts.
I'm excited for Q2.
You guys don't understand the significance of a calendar rollover.
Like things can change so quickly.
Like you just get through a month, things change.
You get through a week, things change.
You get through a day, things change.
You know, things can change really quickly.
The market cares about the
calendar rollover. So anyways, let's kick it over to our man, Keck, and get some thoughts from him.
Keck, sweet new profile picture, man. Just noticing that. You know what's funny is, like,
you change your profile picture so much, sometimes you'll, like, tweet, and I'll be like,
who the hell is this guy? Like, who do I follow? I'm like, oh, it's just another one of Keck's
NFTs. I don't even know who that is. But anyways, it's pretty sweet. Keck, how's it going, man? How are you doing? How are you feeling?
Talk to the people. What's going on? Hey, Max. Yeah, thank you. Thank you for that cook sesh,
bro. It was, that was much needed. You know, when the market's doing this and beating everyone down, I love hearing Max break down some charts and give us a little bit of hope.
But yeah, you know, I do like swapping the NFTs quite a bit,
but I think this one will stick for a little bit.
And it's cool to like, you know, when the market's been chopping out,
I really, I've just been trying to network.
Like I've been trying to like reach other circles and meet new people and just try to grow your network and kind of step out of
the, you know, my comfort zone, like out of the kind of meme coin and, and whatever space and
try to, you know, connect with some of the NFT people. So it's cool, man. It's cool to see
different communities. And I'm very surprised at how the board apes pull up and and actually
support you like the the post that i made is just going insane so and i'm getting dms i'm getting
new follows so and i even see some new people in the spaces which is which is great to see um
so yeah like you know when the market's you know boring it's like what what are you going to do
right you're going to try to network you're going going to try to meet new people and just kind of grow within the space. And that's kind of what
I'm doing right now. But man, it's, we're, we're just in this position right now where I think
everybody is just kind of beat up, beat down. And every time we hear the word tariff, we're like,
oh, not again, right? But I'm still optimistic and maybe I'm crazy for that.
But, you know, I was bullish on ETH at, you know, 800, 900 dollars.
Like, why would I not be bullish now?
And of course, I would have thought we would have been higher.
And, you know, of course, I would have thought the crypto president could pump the charts a little bit better than Biden.
But, hey, I think the best is
yet to come. And I think that good things come with patience. It's like anything in life, right?
You have to be patient if you want results. And at the end of the day, I know that these
communities aren't going anywhere. I know Pepe was the first mover and really started this
meme coin cycle. And I refuse to believe that altcoin season is over
before Pepe flips SHIB and takes the number one spot on ETH.
I just refuse to believe it.
And maybe I'm wrong, hey, but I'm going to stick it out
and I'm going to keep building and supporting these projects
because I believe in the memetics.
I believe in these communities. And I think that what,
what has been built here organically, you know, no KOLs, no influencers.
And seeing like the, because Bitcoin, like in you max and, you know,
these guys come in and, and now we have education.
We have education for all these DGens in the trenches, like myself, that haven't had it before.
And the amount that I've grown and learned in the past six to eight months is just exponential.
And I'm just sponging it all in.
And I'm trying to learn as much as I can.
And I'm just grateful.
I'm grateful for everybody that's still pulling up when times are tough because it's not easy, bro. And I understand, you know, if people need to step away, I think
it's healthy for people, you know, spend time with your family. Like when the charts just
getting beat down and it doesn't seem like it's stopping, but you're still holding that conviction
bag, like spend time with your family, like, you know, unplug a little bit, it'll feel good. And
at the end of the day, I've seen this happen time and time again. Like, you know unplug a little bit it'll feel good and at the end of the day
I've seen this happen time and time again like you know when when wolf went down to 16 mil it was
you know we had a very large holder holding three percent capitulate at the like picot bottom and
we were stepping in and and swallowing that up I'm not seeing the same thing here like I'm not
seeing like large whales capitulate i think that
the foundation that's that's been built is very strong for these projects and i feel like
we've already gone through this before so it's it's pretty cool to see you know the strength
and and the community that's still you know there and and still pulling up and i'm most excited to
see what happens when when we turn this thing around and
when eth gives us the tailwind we've been hoping for because you know everybody's got to remember
that both you know andy wolf and even pepe like they've only existed when when btc has just been
dominating right and and we haven't seen altcoins we haven't seen the tailwind come behind these
projects yet and they've still performed extremely well right so yeah I'm just excited and and I'm you know let's let's connect
and let's you know get some other people up here like if anyone wants to come up and chat ask
questions um you know this is this is an open space so I'd love to hear from new people. But, Louie, how's it going, brother?
Hey, what's going on, guys?
Can you hear me?
Yes, sir.
Louie Meatstick.
What's going on, bro?
What's going on, everybody?
Another Andy Wolfe Megaspace.
Not so much a mega space anymore.
Like Max was saying,
you know,
he used to call it the mic microspace now.
That's how I like it.
Generally speaking though,
bro, like it's,
it's still a larger space.
Right.
But I know we've seen like 600 plus,
but,
for when the markets,
this beat down to have two three hundred
people it's not it's not bad right and and have it organic that's that's the key is like a lot of the
larger spaces you see are all bots but if you scroll through the audience like we're not paying
for no bots man our money's in the chart yeah exactly yeah mean, I would agree with that. and carnage we've been seeing,
we're still proving to have a large community presence.
And like Keck said, organically.
We have no big names that are being paid to shill this.
that are being paid to shill this.
It's all organic community driven growth on a thesis,
which is the boys club, right?
You're Pepe Betas.
So yeah, I mean, great strength out of Pepe
over the last couple months.
And in my opinion, has been acting as a leader off the lows, right?
I think Pepe was the first token, right, in the space to really start grinding off the
lows and leading this move off the lows, other than a select few, right?
And that's just a power and proof of the power of the power of, uh, Pepe and this
thesis, which we call the boys club beta.
Right.
Um, so that's a great sign guys, you know, seeing Pepe rally hard off the lows to date,
you know, we're, we're up 50% off our lows at one point being up, you know, 75% off the lows in a market where a majority of
tokens are still sitting at the lows, you know, especially meme points, right? Especially meme
coins that had all the money at all the big influence influencers behind them. You know, we see Pepe continuing to lead off the lows. And we're
starting to see Andy and Wolf starting to starting to catch up, right, as they should, right?
Acting as beta to Pepe. So, you know, the strength we've been seeing out of Pepe,
since pretty much the beginning of March, is very foretelling, in my opinion,
that we will see Andy and Wolf start to climb out of the lows. And I really look at these charts as
pretty much just giant ranges. And right now, they both sitting at range lows, right? And, you know,
in the simplest of terms, you want to buy at range lows and you want to sell at range highs,
right? Unless you're obviously going to get that range high breakout. And that's kind of how these
tokens have been acting, right? They've been selling off at the range high extremes and they've been finding support at our range lows.
And once again, you know, I'm a buyer of Andy, of Wolf, of Pepe at these levels.
Because once again, you know, if I'm not willing, you know, to sack up and buy at these levels, my own bags and my own convictions, who will?
So I've been accumulating more at these levels.
Andy, a bag that's literally triple the size for me now at these levels, as far as tokens are concerned,
than it was three, four months ago.
So taking this opportunity of downside, not to be discouraged and walk away because my thesis
didn't play out right away, but instead taking the opportunity to buy and add to my bags at extreme value discount prices, in my opinion.
And sure, I've been coming on these spaces for a while now. I'm not here every time,
but I try to be here as much as I can. And I was also adding to Andy on the way down.
down. Right. So, but we're at a level where this is where I was first buying Andy, uh, back in,
you know, May of last year. So I'm also getting close to my, you know, almost year long, uh,
anniversary for, for being an Andy holder. But if I liked it at these prices, you know,
I liked it at these prices, you know, eight months ago.
To get another chance at these prices again, I don't see as a negative thing.
Although, yeah, short term, it's kind of, you know, it's not easy.
I'm not going to sit here and tell you guys that I'm enjoying.
I've been enjoying watching prices come down.
But keeping a level head right looking at the chart with with context looking
at where we are in the macro cycle you know seeing you know still believing that eath has a shot
uh to to you know reach fresh all-time highs within the next year without all that being said
it makes no sense to not be a buyer down here if
I'm able to. So that's what I've been doing, right? Accumulating Pepe, accumulating Andy,
accumulating Wolf. I started buying Wolf again down at these levels, right? And I think these
are great levels where even on a mean reversion bounce, which is just price being down for months, price doesn't go down in a straight line. you know, hundreds of percents in gains that are potentially on the table here,
if you're willing to buy into the fear and allocate yourself at these prices, right?
And in my experience, when engagement's down, like we just discussed,
when people don't want to take the risk on crypto anymore, when no one wants to talk about it, when everyone seems bearish and feels as if crypto is dead, it's not going to come back.
That's when I love to come in and place my bets, right?
That's just always how I've done it historically over the last eight years.
um and in hindsight looking back months later after stepping in and buying into the fear and
the FOMO I've always come out better on the other side I've never once not done well from buying in
environments like this um and that's just comes with experience you know but bro lary i got hit i got hit with an ad yesterday to like two in
a row that was literally like it was like a person pretending to be an eth dev saying that they're
they're done with the network it's too centralized and they're going to solana and then right after
that i got hit with another ad of some guy uh capit all his ETH into soul. And I just laughed.
I'm like, they're paying for ads to boost this FUD, bro.
It's crazy.
Yeah.
And that's the kind of stuff that you see at Lowe's, right?
And a lot of that stuff is misguided on purpose, right?
is misguided on purpose, right?
It's like there's entities that want to buy your bags, right?
At the end of the day, right?
Whether, even if it's not Andy or Wolf, it's ETH, right?
They want to buy at the cheapest price possible.
They want retail to capitulate, to give up,
and to sell at the lower end extremes.
Because the more people that do,
the cheaper price they get and the more supply they're able to swallow up at these discount
prices. And that's exactly what I think we've been seeing. I think you're unmuted over there,
Mike. But I think really that's what we're seeing. And that's how I'm, you know, placing my bets accordingly, right?
To play a scenario where, you know,
this is just a massive reaccumulation of ETH before letting the price go and
going into, you know, the real bull market that ETH should see, right?
Everything we're seeing in the macro as far as, you know,
the TradFi coming to take a seat at the table of this asset class,
which is crypto, is lined up, right?
Everything is lined up.
They have their cheap prices.
Almost every crypto native investor has capitulated and given up. They have their cheap prices. Almost every crypto native investor has capitulated and given
up. They're now able to buy ETH pretty much from the highs in December to now. They're now able to
buy ETH 50%, 55% lower than what it was just a couple months ago. And that's exactly what I think is happening
right now. So if I think that's happening, I'm going to be allocating to the best E-beta that
I think is out there in the market in a sector that I think still continues to go on and do great,
which is the meme coin sector, right? It's proving time
and time again, that people have a demand and a want and need to trade meme coins and to own
meme coins, owning a part of community, right? Owning a thesis, right? And doing and, you know, pretty much doing our own thing and starting our own
ecosystem. So that's what I've been doing, right? You know, I always come on here. And I always say
I put my money where my mouth is, I'm not coming up here and telling you guys buy, buy, buy, and
then I'm turning around and selling. Now, it's the exact opposite. I'm coming up here and saying,
look, I'm buying, I think these are great prices.
And you do what you want with that information, right?
So I'm a buyer at these levels.
Finally, Q1 is over.
I think, you know, normally seasonality tells us that, you know, Q1 coming out of a halving year is normally very bullish for ETH and altcoins.
We obviously didn't see that.
But again, that works both ways as well, right?
Normally, Q2 is usually decent,
and Q3, like middle of the summer, are usually pretty quiet.
But because we didn't see a massively bullish Q1,
I think all bets are off. and i think we should expect the
unexpected uh and i would not be surprised if we saw a bullish q2 and q3 uh for ethan all coins
and i think we likely were just pushed you know we were they they kicked the can down the road
to to make sure that you know they had their seat at the table do you think bro i'm curious if you think like because now you're seeing like institutional
investors you're seeing vcs like you know you're seeing big money enter the space so do you think
now like like our normal time frames are going to shift like i feel like these guys are playing
games with us like everybody's like selling may go away like there's been so many rules and it's crypto's followed such a tight
schedule for so long and now it feels like everything's making a bit of a shift and it's
funny that it comes when kind of the institutions are stepping in so do you think that like
you know the shit you know that normal kind of schedule that we're on before is going to start
to shift 100 right and that's what i mean by it works both ways where there's new entities and
there's new players in this market you know this there's always been big players but a lot of the
biggest players um aren't haven't really really been allowed to play in this market.
They have rules and regulations they need to follow.
And it's a lot of red tape.
But now we have the Bitcoin ETFs.
We have the ETH ETFs.
We have dozens of altcoin ETFs being filed that are waiting to be approved, which I think
are likely to start getting approved later in the year. And with the new player, which is Wall
Street, coming into this emerging asset class, they have the capital and they have the flows and they have the size to change the normal trajectories and flows we've
historically seen in this market. So absolutely, Keck, I really do think that we are going to see
a shift in how these markets trade, right? I really do, but I think it's for the better,
right? Short term, the last couple months, they've sucked, right?
They've sucked because we haven't been seeing what we normally see, right? But, you know,
I think it's more or less short term pain for a longer term gain, right? Like the way we're
setting up is setting up where, you know, yes, we're pulling back and we're coming into value prices. But if this does end up getting heavily accumulated down here, and we do see, you know, a flip back
the other way for the crypto markets, I think we're going to come into an environment where
we see constant flows, right? And, and of course, we'll have pullbacks, right? And of course,
we'll have many bear markets, but we could be shifting away from your average,
you know, one and a half year bull market, one and a half year, you know, 70 to 80% drawdown
bear market, two years of sideways, and then another one year of up, right?
So yeah, longer term, that's bullish, right? Because you don't have to worry about, you know, buying a crypto and looking to sell it in six to 12 months and catching that short period of time, you see price expansion, right? I think eventually, we're going to come into a point where there's going to be cryptos that you're going to be able to just to buy right and when you get a dip you dca right and you add right um but i think it's
overall bullish long term right and i think that's where most people fail uh to kind of comprehend
is their their time horizons and their vision are in months or maybe even like a year or weeks. But when you zoom out and you're looking years
down the road from everything I'm seeing from Wall Street and how they're trying to get their
seat at the table, I think we're setting up for pretty much the establishment of crypto as legitimate asset class. And now the big guys are here to take their piece.
So when they're taking their piece, which I think is now, it's not going to be fun. These are
predatory entities when it comes to getting their position. These guys are sharks. They're not
friendly. They're not going to buy your bags 10x higher from where you bought.
They're likely going to be buying it either where you bought,
if you were early, or lower.
And they're going to put you through pain
until they've gotten their positioning.
So that's where I think we're seeing.
I'm still, you know, nothing has changed my outlook on ETH.
I think Bitcoin continues to rally. I think this is just a
mid-market correction for Bitcoin. Coming into a level where we start breaking this downtrend on
Bitcoin, we could be back to 92K at our range lows within a couple of weeks. So I'm getting
more and more bullish on ETH and all coins down here and i'm doing whatever
i can to accumulate and add uh to my bags which i am fully 100 allocated so like i tell the discord
i was 100 allocated uh but now i'm 110 allocated right so that's where i'm at as far as my
conviction uh my levels.
And things are really gearing up for ETH to have a bullish Q2 here.
So extremely bullish, putting my money where my mouth is.
And I think in short order, within a month or two, Andy and Landwolf, you know, will return and be an obvious, you know,
ETH beta play that will likely thrive in this market moving forward.
So that's what I'm doing.
That's all about I have to say here.
So glad to be back on one of these spaces.
And I hope you guys, you know, everyone does well, right?
But that's just what I'm doing.
And you guys do what you want with that information. I have a question and I have something to say. I got into the
crypto space not too long ago, but I've, you know, I watch you guys. So I want to thank you and Max.
I watch you guys every morning at 11 over here in Miami.
And I've learned a lot.
So yesterday you guys were actually talking about how your show is not necessarily for the beginner.
But, you know, I got in as a beginner and I've learned a lot just by watching you guys.
So, yeah, so I guess a beginner can get something out of it.
But my question was, I put a pretty heavy bag
into Pepe mostly base for coin Andy and Andy and wolf not so much but I you know
I have I have some money there but I bought at you know, eight, eight billion market cap, uh, 60 million for coin. And I don't remember Andy
and Wolf. So for someone like me that I bought pretty much at the, not all time highs, but you
know, at the highs and I've just been holding, I'm down 60, 70%. Um, you know, is, is there
optimism for me? I'm going to keep holding because I'm not going to sell at a loss.
But, you know, I know you guys have your targets for Pepe.
And, you know, I see all the tweets that you guys put about, you know, the charts.
And I'm hoping they reach those levels.
But for someone like me, like you're saying, you're buying at these lows and you bought in at these prices a year ago or whatever.
And you're buying more now um I don't really have the money to DCA right now as I have it in other investments I do
real estate um at the position that I'm at um am I screwed or um you you see me holding on and you
know possibly getting some nice gains from where I bought it well i can't give you like specific individual advice right because you know obviously i'm not
a financial advisor so i just kind of put that out no obviously i don't take it though no no no i
don't take it yeah but um you know you said you're 50 60 down on your and Andy and your Pepe and stuff like that. Is that what you were saying?
Pepe 60.
Farcoin, with the little surge that it's had lately, I think I'm down like 40% maybe.
But Pepe, I'm down like that's my biggest bag, Pepe, and I'm down about 60%. I think I bought an 8 billion market cap.
So that's not the highs, I don't think.
But like early december i bought
so it's been you know i'm pretty down i'm down let's i'm down right yeah so let me just let me
give you just just some backstory here um because you're obviously and i and i do recognize you i
see you in my my comments all the time and i appreciate the support. My first go around with crypto
is very similar to your story, Mike. I was buying, you know, the top of the 2018 bull run,
right? So 2017 was a historical bull run for crypto. ETH, all coins, Bitcoin, like did absolutely crazy stuff.
And I was just a kid coming out of college.
And, you know, I was attracted to the idea of crypto
and buying something and, you know,
making 10 to 50 X on my money and stuff like that.
But I didn't know much, right? I didn't know much.
And lo and behold to me, I was buying, you know,
specifically I was buying the top of XRP, right?
XRP that's like a one from like three 10 cents to like three bucks.
But I was new and I, you know, I just thought, you know,
everyone seems excited about this. Like it's a no brainer.
And I was buying
XRP at like 280, where that was like my first crypto investment. And that's something that I
watched drop for about a year. And I was down. But what I did, instead of just selling and coming up, going away, um, I hunkered down even
more. I, I tried to learn more. I tried to scrap as much money as I possibly could, uh, to begin
DCA-ing, uh, into XRP and other stuff. Right. Uh, you know, and that did take a couple of years,
right. Cause 2018 was the end of one bull market.
We didn't really see bullish price action until 2020, 2021.
So that was something I had to deal with a couple of years of down, a year of downtrend and then like a year and a half of sideways.
But it was something I never gave up on, right?
Because in my eyes, what I was buying, whether it was XRP or all the other stuff I was buying was, yeah, we're down now.
Right. But do I think crypto as an asset class is going to be a bigger ecosystem in a couple of years or is it going to be a smaller ecosystem in a couple of years?
And in my my eyes, it was a no brainer that it was going to be bigger.
Right. So I just DCA and I stuck around. And at one point, yeah, I had no money left.
But that's usually everyone's first go around in crypto. So I don't want you to, you know,
I know, being a new investor in this space, and you see a lot of stuff on Twitter,
it seems like everybody's winning on Twitter, you know,
and that's just people just show their highlight reel,
but they don't show the other side of things.
So usually everyone's first go around in crypto is you usually buy some sort of top and you kind of learn the hard way,
but you come back from that a lot of a smarter investor, right?
In my eyes, just looking at Pepe, Andy, and stuff like that, I would say that we're going to rally back, right?
I'm under the impression that we do, like this rally is not over.
If anything, we haven't even seen the true rally yet out of Bitcoin, out of Pepe, Andy and stuff like that. What I think we've been seeing is just
massive, a massive accumulation range, right? So I too have buys on Andy, right? From earlier,
you know, end of last year that are down 40 to 50% as I was adding on the way down, right?
And I think we're going to get back to those levels, if not much higher, right?
So I know right now, it kind of seems that like that's so far from where we are now,
you know, we'd have to rally so much just to get back to entry.
But I do think it's possible.
And I say this all the time is
altcoins specifically, right? The volatility in these markets work both ways. So yes, we've come
down pretty far, right? But, and I say this all the time is that altcoins can erase weeks and months worth of downtrend, you know, in a matter of days or short weeks.
And people are forgetting that. So, you know, sometimes doing nothing, right, is a strategy,
right? I know sometimes it feels like you need to be constantly doing something,
but just holding on to your bags, doing nothing, not giving into the fear and FOMO and riding it out for the next wave of liquidity to be injected into these markets is a strategy.
And that's kind of how I do it too, right?
Like I didn't sell a lot when we were at those highs.
Sure, I took profit on some stuff along the way.
So I had dry powder at these times.
And that's a lesson that
you now have ingrained in yourself, right? Because you've had to stare at your red P&L for months
now. And that's kind of how you learn these lessons in the markets. I mean, anyone can come
up here and tell you what to do, but some of these lessons have to be learned personally, right?
So it's ingrained in yourself.
So yeah, no, I don't think you're screwed at all, right?
I think that you're positioned fine.
I think the markets are going to provide us relief going into the next couple months.
And I think you're going to be surprised how quickly, you know, these things can rally
off the lows and literally erase months worth of downtrend. So I'm, you know, pretty much in a
similar boat as you, as far as I was buying Andy at these prices, you know, last year, but I was
also buying higher up end of last year, this year um and i'm expecting those end those
buys to be in profit by the end of the year um so i hope that helps right yeah i appreciate it
i appreciate what you guys do you guys you know you guys educate i used to be a teacher and you
guys do a great job of of educating uh you know your fan base and and your followers and um
honestly you know you guys are the one without you guys honestly i might have sold you know two
months ago and just taken a l you know so you guys you know have kept me level-headed and optimistic
and um and i'm excited man i mean it is what it is And I know this is part of it. So I'm excited.
I'm sure there's a lot of people listening that probably had the same question as me.
I'm probably embarrassed to say it.
And I'm sure there's a lot of people that have been listening to you guys and watching your stuff and gave up.
And they're not even thinking about crypto anymore.
They just took their L.
So I didn't want to be one of those guys.
So I appreciate it, man. You guys do great job hey man i'd love to hear that and yeah i mean and and the
sad part is a lot of people that have sold you know over the last month or two you know pretty
much near the lows we're at now you know they're likely going to have to chase higher if we do see
a monster rally off the lows and that's where people mess themselves up even more, right?
Because they sold, they gave up,
they set their mind that, you know,
things aren't going to be good, things are over.
And when they, you know, we start to rally,
they're not going to believe it, right?
They're not going to believe the first little pumps
that we see off the lows.
But once those pumps continue to pump right and continue to
rally you know that's when the you know the emotions of fomo kick in uh where it's like crap
like i'm gonna miss out on this right i'm gonna miss this um i shouldn't have sold um and that's
where people get into a problem where they they start chasing the pumps, right? And once you start chasing those pumps,
trying to get back in after not trusting a rally,
you usually, you're buying into the area
where you actually do see those pullbacks, right?
Like the things are gonna pump
until you finally FOMO back in
and then they'll pull back, right?
And then people will get into a vicious cycle
of buying the pumps and then selling the
selling the dips and then it pumps again and they buy again and then it dips again and they sell
and they ended up depleting all their money in an environment that's inherently bullish right
because bull markets are just as hard to manage yourself as well as bear markets so and that's
why i always say yeah is it that it might not be the best strategy,
just riding the waves of these markets up and down. But for your average investor,
sometimes it's the best way to go, right? Because you keep that mental clarity,
you keep that level-headedness, and you stick to that one bias that you have versus trying to flip
flop and time the market. Because people blow themselves up time that you have versus trying to flip-flop and time the market because people
blow themselves up time and time again trying to time these crypto markets which are super volatile
so i've done the same thing you did mike and i did it by holding through uh and adding where i can
like i took on a second job at one point just to add as much as possible because if you're down a lot, right, but you're able to DCA and lower
your cost average price however you can, it really does start to compound when you rally off the
lows because if you're buying 60% higher and then you start buying again now, right, your average
price will ultimately start to lower. And the more that
average price lowers, the quicker you're going to be back in some sort of profitable P&L, right?
So that's always how I've done it. And that's kind of how I'm doing it now, right? That's kind
of how I'm doing it now. So that's how I play these markets. It might not be the best strategy,
according to everyone, right?
It seems as if everyone on Twitter buys the exact bottoms and sells the exact tops.
That's not really how I operate in these markets.
I have a very long-term view of these things.
And it's always worked for me. So I'm glad that you're finding help and assistance through watching us and the stuff that we put out. It, it means a lot.
Thank you, man. Thanks Lou. I appreciate it.
All right. That was a, that was a great place to, I think, end it.
Louie, that was a, that was a lot of wisdom right there.
I agree with basically everything that you said, man.
Michael, thanks for coming up.
Greatly appreciate it.
We're at about that time mark, guys, so we're going to call it here until next week.
Thanks so much for tuning in.
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Same time.
Next Tuesday, same time.
All right, same time.
Just before 2 p.m. EST, we'll be back for another Boys Club
Megaspace. Guys, thanks so much for being here and we will see you next week. Take care.
