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Rate Cuts, HOOD vs MSTR & The DAT Trade Gets a Twist - Under Exposed
Recorded: Sept. 9, 2025 Duration: 0:56:49Space Recording
Short Summary
In a lively discussion, crypto enthusiasts explored the implications of OpenSea's upcoming token launch and its partnership with Kalshi, while also analyzing the impact of recent economic data on the crypto market. The conversation highlighted trends in hiring practices and the potential for growth in risk assets, particularly in light of anticipated Fed rate cuts.
Full Transcription
Thank you. GM, everyone, thanks for joining us here this morning, this afternoon,
wherever you're at.
We're going to start the show here in just a minute.
A couple shout-outs.
GM, thanks for joining us.
Mobius, Mr. House, busy.
GM, GM, Diggy, Connor, Cooper.
All right.
Thank you for joining us.
We've got 4K, Anurag, Tyree. All right. Thank you for joining us. We got 4K.
Anurag. Tyree. All right. Thank you all for joining us.
Charlie, whenever you're ready, let's kick it. Thank you. This is a production of the U topics and trends in crypto and Web3. Today is Tuesday, September 9th. And folks, our jobs data in the
US is all fake. Jerome Powell has been making critical monetary decisions that impact the
entire globe with this fake data for months. It looks like we have the real picture now.
That picture is not great. And the question we're asking on today's show, what does that mean
for our magic internet money? We will get into that on today's show, plus a whole lot more. I'm your host,
Tyler D. I've got my co-host in the house. First up, D's,
our collector, coin stacker, and trader, GM. How you doing?
Doing well, man. We got a new hype, all-time high, so exciting things to talk about. I'm
euphoric and just came back from cooler wisconsin
where i went to whistling straits and did not golf so glad to be back i've also gone to whistling
straits and not golfed color is a fun uh it's a fun place to visit yeah i didn't realize the
brand that we see at lowe's and home depot is um what the city's named after and when you're eating
chocolates and you're doing anything in this little town you see the fucking cooler
branded font on everything.
Indeed. It is a nice town.
And some nice Daniel Arshams laying around out there.
And there's like a nice art museum in the middle
of fucking nowhere. There's like beautiful
I don't know 50 foot wood
paneling up the side.
I was really surprised.
It's the Midwest baby. But don't go there
if you're on a strict diet. It is not a fun town for those who don't like cheese curds and chocolate.
Well, thanks for joining us.
Happy hype.
All-time high to those who celebrate.
Folks, we've also got Peter Jennings on with us, founder of several companies.
Peter, Jim, how are you doing?
Jim, doing great.
Yeah, hype is cooking.
Stablecoin.
I was just actually listening about how some proposals were on their stablecoin and that's bad for
circle we'll get into that we've been short USDC circle for a little bit here
and it's like 10% of their supplies currently USDC on hyperliquid that's
you know somewhere in the range of like five and a half billion dollars you know
that's 200 something million dollars a year in interest revenue,
assuming that money's in treasuries.
It makes sense for Hyperliquid to get its own stablecoin.
So we'll talk about that, I'm sure.
There's a lot going on in macro.
We have potential rate cuts coming.
So really excited to be with you guys.
Excited to have you on.
And Jeeps, our early-stage crypto VC dabbles across internet capital markets, wears a lot of hats. Jeeps, Jim, how you doing?
Glad to be back with you guys. I've had a lot going on lately.
Oh yeah, welcome back. It's since the baby. How is the newest addition to your family?
Everything's great. Everything's great. Peter got to stop by yesterday and meet him. And we're up and to the right. Family's up and to the right.
You love to hear it. Fantastic.
Folks, well, we're going to get into the meat of the show here.
Just a few housekeeping items. We are live on KICK.
Make sure to follow our channel. We'll be streaming over there every week.
And our giveaways will be done live in the kick as well.
Happy to announce today is our first show with two $500 Yeet giveaways.
One will be going to a random Morning Minute affiliate, and one to a random live listener.
So you have to be signed up over at Yeet.
If you're not signed up, go do it now.
You still have a few minutes to catch that second raffle. Go sign up with that morning minute. No spaces, affiliate
code, and you'll have your chance to win. We'll run the giveaways at the end of today's show.
So shout out to Yeet for partnering with the show. We love that for our listeners. And also,
before we get started, one quick disclosure. The opinions expressed on this podcast are those of the speakers and do not reflect the views or opinions of any
organizations they are associated with. We are here to share insights, provoke thought,
and maybe even stir some debate. But this is not, I repeat, not financial advice.
While we talk about markets, investments, and trends, remember, your financial decisions
should be made at the help of your own research or with advice from a licensed professional.
All right, well, let's get into it.
Let's just dive right in.
I'm not going to do the roundup.
I'm going to fire up the screen share for those who are in the kick, so make sure to join us over there.
But I want to talk about this jobs report and the headline here, folks.
And the headline here, folks, job growth revised down by 911,000 from last March to the year ending March 2025.
So the economy that we thought was already a bit shaky, much even shakier than we even realized.
even realized. So the employment picture, not great. This is on the high end. Wall Street
So the employment picture, not great.
expectations range from a low around 600,000 to as many as a million. This comes just a month
after Trump had already fired someone from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The data is effectively
meaningless. Why does this matter? Well, it matters because we've got a rate cut decision coming up here in eight days
and it looks like 50 bips had been creeping up i saw as high as 12 percent back down to 8 percent
peter curious for your thoughts on what this means what it means for the economy
just broader reactions to just a lack of trust in the data
that's feeding into such important decisions.
Yeah, we've talked a lot about this before.
I mean, I think the most important thing in the US is our economy.
And I think part of the reason we have the most vibrant economy in the world is market
integrity, true capitalism, and people know they can trust the rule of law.
There's a lot of uncertainty kind of around the data and just different things.
You know, the pendulum has swung really hard in multiple directions.
So from a data perspective, you know, yeah, it seems like there's a lot of bad data in
the past administration.
I was skeptical at the time.
A lot of, you lot of the jobs were
government jobs and that's easy to manipulate. I'm skeptical of these numbers, to be honest,
that just came out. I think they're already politicizing that the headline is Trump was
right. The data was wrong. And obviously the Trump administration wants lower rates and
this data would suggest that we should have lower rates. So it's concerning that we have to be
skeptical about these numbers. And I do think, you know, across the board, forget politics.
There's definitely a more innovative way to get this data. We have so much technology now.
This should be reliable and maybe even a good case for blockchain, this should be
transparent in some
capacity. People should
trust the data.
From a moving forward
perspective, I think there's going to continue to be pressure
on the Fed to lower rates.
I think with these numbers, we'll certainly
see cuts, just a matter of
how high.
A lot of people are thinking 50 bps.
I know that's not what the data just showed, right?
It's like 8% or something like that, 14% on polymarket.
I would be buying those numbers.
I think it's certainly a little bit higher than that, but the market's suggesting it's a little bit lower.
So there's a lot there.
I'd be curious to everyone else's perspective.
Do you guys trust the new data?
The new data as in the revisions?
The revisions, I trust a little bit more.
They're on par with last year, right?
Last year was like 800 plus K.
So it's not like it's crazy, but I think it's pretty alarming right now around the state of the jobs market in general.
And we talked about this probably a month or so ago where we said the Fed was clearly moving to re-rating around jobs.
And since then, the jobs data has effectively collapsed.
And I think this paints a pretty accurate picture.
When I talk to people that I know looking for jobs, trying to switch jobs, there's a lot of
trouble. They'll go through five, six, seven interviews, and then they'll just close the job
entirely. So what we're seeing is companies looking for candidates, but not necessarily
firing on candidates. And I think that's accurate. We're seeing it, especially with kids who just graduated college, not being able to find jobs as well.
And look, there's an argument that AI is deteriorating part of that. And I believe that.
But I also think most companies don't want to bring in folks that they don't need. They want
to basically keep great folks that they have called the herd and not bring anyone new in until
they can make better decisions.
So do I believe it? I don't know. Jennings, you bring up another good point. We should have better ways to collect this data, especially in a modern world where every company has some type of HR
software, whether it's Gusto, Monday, Empower, Trinet, one of these services. And between them
and ADP and other data providers, we should be able to have some type of an automated feed
where this data is live and reliable
and we're not having to make too many shit assumptions.
Like that was the biggest problem is that
it's not like the data was bad.
It was the assumptions that they were using
to forecast the data, right?
They had incomplete information was awful.
And yeah, like you're just seeing the administration now,
you know, dance on their grave a little bit. Yeah. Just to jump in and finalize a point,
I think one reason that we're still in a great place as a country is we have, you know, the
biggest and best companies in the world. And I think those companies are broadly trusted around
the world. You know, you look at the Mag 7, a lot of these people, they're competent and they've built great businesses on trust and execution and merit.
And I would trust the top companies.
I would trust the data that they're putting out.
I mean, I think that there's just growing skepticism regardless of what side of the aisle that you're on in the government.
And that's a problem.
So hopefully we can get important economic data from companies, you know, with the assistance of the government.
To me, that would be much better than just relying on, you know, clearly faulty data that we've had for some stretch of time now.
Yeah, I totally agree with that.
This is actually something I feel like that DOGE could have come in and had a real impact on the Department of Government Efficiency, right?
It's fixing issues like this.
But it's also the job market does feel shaky. It almost,
I'm not actively searching for a job,
but it feels like it's from what I'm hearing anecdotally, not quite 2008,
but it feels like maybe it's getting there.
Like new grads seem to be struggling more and more.
And rightfully so, as more seasoned folks perhaps can leverage AI to do the jobs of a few.
Maybe you don't need those junior level analysts anymore.
But assets are still up and to the right.
They're not reflecting a recession economy.
Mag7 is from April now up over a hundred points up basically 50%.
It looks like from April 7th bottom.
Yeah.
Two,
we touched two 50 on the mag sevens at three 85.
So over 50% now.
So the top companies in the U S are doing quite fine.
We have gold hitting fresh all-time highs.
It hit 3,700 today for the very first time.
Meanwhile, our coins, they're doing okay.
We're basically flat on the week.
Well, we didn't run the show last week, but we are flat week over week.
Bitcoin at 111K, ETH flat at 4,300, solely in the way up 6%.
Geez, maybe I'll toss this one to you.
Two-part question.
What do you think is going to happen in the Fed meeting next week?
50 bips, 25 bips or nothing.
And then what do you think it means for our coins?
You know, Tyler, I put my money where my mouth is.
I think we're going 50.
I think we come out next week.
With the state of where the jobs data
is at right now,
I think there's a pretty good argument
for a 50-bit rate cut
and then pause
and pause maybe again.
And we've seen Powell do it before.
He came out before.
He realizes he's behind the curve
and comes out with the 50-point cut.
And so I'm aligned there.
I've been aligned there
since like 3% to 5% on Polymarket.
And I'm pretty excited to see
what happens next week.
I think if we just continue to get
negative sentiment, I think the we just continue to get a negative sentiment,
I think the probability just keeps going up and we could see this close to
four to one by that time. It's not higher.
50 feels right. So like if you project that jobs data, the revision,
had they had that accurate data for the past several months,
they would have done a cut already.
They would have cut and they likely would have been cutting again.
Yeah.
And so I wouldn't be shocked to see them just go 50 all at once.
It's not like 50 is a huge shock either, right?
It's meaningful, but I think it's meaningful enough where they can do that and then continue
to reassess where companies are at and where their appetite is for hiring.
One of the last things we want is just a really crappy labor market or heavy
deterioration in the labor market.
And we're already seeing people get really locked into where they're at,
you know,
just because of where mortgage rates are at.
And so you don't want one of the really beautiful things about America is
mobility.
You can go from Tallahassee up to Philly and move your whole family, and it's not a huge shift.
Right now, there's so many folks that are locked in 3%, plus or minus a half point on their mortgage rates, and they're handcuffed.
They can't leave, right?
Your mortgage is going to potentially double most of that being interest alone if you decide to move right now.
And so this is another limiting factor,
I think, by keeping rates high.
And it looks like, I mean,
one of Trump's stated goals is he wants
to bring, I don't know, stated or unstated,
he wants to bring the rates down.
Ten years effectively at the lowest it's been
during the Trump presidency.
And he looks good.
And can expect it to move the right way.
So the second part of that question, Jeebs, you didn't answer.
What does it mean for our beloved internet coins if we get 50 bips?
I think we're lagging up.
I think going into FOMC, we're going to absolutely rally.
I think we can see Bitcoin 115 plus going into that next week, if not higher.
And a lot of it's going to be aligned hopium for 50 bips. And to be honest, I think we instantly
sell off either situation, but then sharply rebound coming after that. So I'm thinking
a lot can happen between now and FOMC. Likely we start to trend upward post FOMC,
regardless of decision head down.
And then from there,
I think we just V right up.
Sell the news regardless,
but then continue grind up.
Deez,
I saw you shaking your head.
Curious,
your thoughts on all this,
perhaps law calls for the top being in.
Are you in that camp? How do you feel like this all might play out over the the rest of 2025 here yeah it's tough i just i was talking right before
the show how i thought i should sell a little bit more today of stuff just to take some risk
off the table but i haven't yet um but I think we're just in a really pretty uncertain time
and prices are still pretty good while we are pretty uncertain.
So it doesn't feel too bad to take some chips off the table.
But yeah, I'm really not sure.
This is like the weakest part of my trading game.
Peter, I'm curious for your take,
what you think happens, gold bitcoin if the fed cuts
50 well if the fed cuts 50 we're going to see risk assets go up because it's not priced in
and then people will be excited about that in the short term that i what you could see happen is
risk assets pump and then they sell off because generally when we see these big rate cuts, things pump.
And then it's like, oh, maybe this is a sign of a recession.
The job market's actually in trouble.
That's some percentage of the outcome.
But yeah, I think generally things would pump really well.
And I was listening to my favorite from a rule, Tom Lee, about crypto doubling through the end of the year today.
OSF had a nice tweet about that.
From a risk rewardreward perspective,
I think gold sets up probably the best.
I just don't see the gold train slowing down right now.
I think regardless of what happens,
gold's in a pretty good spot
and is just getting gobbled up
by governments and central banks around the world.
So it's not the sexiest.
It's not going to double Bitcoin or anything like that or alts or whatever else
like Tom Lee is projecting.
I think gold looks incredible here just from making a trade on debasement.
So I'm pretty interested in that.
I've been adding more and more gold,
been adding things like Newmont, which is a little bit of beta on gold. And then crypto-wise,
I've talked a lot about the basis trade and kind of opportunities there.
I'm continuing to kind of just try to find arbitrage, not really changing my positions too much. I get more and more bullish on hype by the day um but i'm thankful
for d's on that one i fumbled the bag a little bit uh during some of the hacking fud but uh
i've been accumulating hype for a while now which uh feels great question is now do we sell um
yeah i know we'll talk some more about some of these other pair trades i definitely want to talk
about hood circle other ways to play these stable coins there's a lot of interesting
kind of ways to play certain certain assets right now but yeah i think strictly from a
risk reward perspective if you're feeling a little uneasy um gold to me is is an incredible bet um
at this point in time even though it's run a ton, I just, with all the global uncertainty,
with rates coming down, this debasement trade, which is my main kind of North Star,
I feel like gold's a really good way to maintain purchasing power.
Are you buying crypto gold? Any of the tokenized gold stuff? Or are you buying mostly traditional?
For me, it's just traditional. There's merit to holding physical gold too.
I'm not like a crazy physical gold bug.
I think if you're going to go that direction,
you're probably better off with guns and food
and property that's off the grid.
But yeah, for me, I prefer IAU and just a little bit of alpha.
I'll just confirm this, make sure that I have this right right now.
But I used to own i
started buying gld way back in the day um and then i switched to iu which is i shares gold because
the expense ratio is lower i believe that's still the case um i've been buying iu uh and you know
we're talking a couple bips here but but I like to look for things like that.
And I use an ETF that I think does a pretty good job of that.
Net express ratio 0.25 and GLD.
I'll pull up here in a second.
GLD, hopefully I'm not embarrassed here and it's lower now.
GLD 0.4%.
So, yeah, 15 bits, IAU versus GLD.
GLD is more popular,
but IAU,
15 less basis points
in terms of costs.
So that's an easy way
to get exposure to gold.
It is.
Also, I pulled up here
on the screen
this new Cantor for Steril product.
It's a new fund.
Effectively, Bitcoin plus gold.
I feel like I've seen
a little bit more of that.
I think it's an interesting way
to bet on the gold slash digital gold trade
They don't move in parallel
For whatever reason
I continue to be frustrated
By the fact that gold will run
In times of economic and geopolitical uncertainty
You think that digital gold would run as well
And it's not
Seemingly is lagging
I guess that is our hope
Peter Lassen I want to go down the risk curve,
but are you surprised that Bitcoin isn't keeping up with gold or is this just
a part of your model, mental model that it lacks?
I mean, Bitcoin is still a combination of NASDAQ, digital gold,
crypto ecosystem as a whole. It's, it's, it's a combination of things.
I'm not frustrated with Bitcoin at all.
I think it's still by far
the best asset to own within
crypto from a risk-reward perspective.
Obviously, we've had some other runners.
I really like Hype.
I listened to Guy on
the Empire podcast. He is...
That guy is the fucking man.
He's my favorite founder in crypto.
His bags are
Bitcoin, Hype, Pump, and Athena, E&A. Love all those tokens. favorite founder in cook dough and he uh you know his his bags are like bitcoin hype pump and athena
ena um love all those those tokens so i think there's certainly some things that you could say
maybe you'd for a shorter time frame you'd want to own bitcoin but from a risk reward perspective
long term i mean bitcoin looks as good as ever uh to me well not surprised at all in the movement i
think you know bitcoin could really run here at some
point in time we've had all these rotations into these dats people are trying to front run that
um yeah i had to bet on one crypto asset you know for the next 10 years i think it's still
bitcoin well what about you guys we had to bet for something the next 10 years anyone have a
different opinion i'm not sure but i saw a chart. It was the M2 Bitcoin chart and then the gold Bitcoin chart. And it looks like it's pretty closely correlated to both of them. Is that what you were saying earlier, Tyler, with Bitcoin still has to catch up a little bit to gold?
I still think it's, in a lot of ways, the same trade. I mean, I think there's an argument that almost all the trades right now are the
inflation hedge
trade.
Let me send a link over.
I'm in the belief
that the good S will continue to go up
to the right. I'm increasingly interested
in MAG7
and Bitcoin.
I don't want S.
I'm a little bit further out the risk curve than just S&P.
Like then getting the SBX and getting 500.
I want the top dogs.
But I think that's a really interesting combo.
And I'm just personally,
I'm not a gold guy,
but I see the,
I'm the trade.
It speaks for itself.
Just have a little bit,
Tyler.
I mean,
I love that.
I mean,
if you're just looking for the straight to basement trade, that's what I would own it's like mag 7 gold bitcoin maybe as you know some
of the S&P 500 if you just want a little more diversity but yeah if you wanted to just say
hey I'm going to take a little bit higher performers um take a little bit more farther
on the risk curve but as you get to basement basement, yeah, MAC7 plus Bitcoin. It's a pretty sweet bucket in my opinion.
It's a good barbell.
And then with,
you know,
some of your end of the barbell,
more fun trade funds,
you can get into some of the other riskier plays.
We talk about memes a lot,
but I mean,
I don't know if hype is even in that bucket.
Maybe hype is in the fundamental.
Maybe it's in the crypto Mag7 conversation.
You guys want to know what I'm buying?
Yeah, Jeeves, what are you buying?
So, okay.
So I've had this thesis lately that Tom Lee,
our Ethereum savior, spokesman of ETH,
he has a number of other products out there as well.
And I'm sure you guys know GRNY, the granny shop. I've been loading up on... Okay. So granny is one of his ETFs that
he's built out and it's a quote unquote like future proof ETF. And so he has eight different
categories that he's looking at and all the investments are in those different companies.
Let me bring it up really quickly he was on compounded friends uh talking through it a
little bit and look i think it's i think it's an interesting play like if you think that tom lee
is a current day warren buffett as in someone who sees the market for what it is and knows how to invest, you know, more or less via the
narratives that are emerging and accepting that things aren't valued the same way that they were
back in Warren Buffett's day, then I think Tom Lee in some ways as a modern day bull market
Warren Buffett. And if so, I think that his ETF is properly aligned to the themes that I want to
be invested in. So this has been one of the ETF beta plays that I've been accumulating a bit
of over time.
So the granny shots,
us large cap ETF.
Yeah.
The holdings that are in there and it's like,
it's pretty thematic.
Let me see if I can bring up.
Yeah.
See if you can find more details.
Just going off the name here,
you got to be bullish on granny shots.
Fucking granny shot, right?
Fundamentally.
Long-term capital appreciation through an actively managed portfolio,
U.S. small and mid-caps.
Okay, here, here, here.
I'm going to send you a link real quick
and then open this up
and then fast forward to one hour and 11 minutes.
All right, so we've got a two-hour YouTube video to fast forward through.
All right, let me try to get through all this.
Why don't you explain it while I try to get there?
Basically, what he's looking at in here is longer-term themes with a three- to five-year time horizon.
And the categories there are easing financial conditions, global labor suppliers, millennial-based themes, energy, cybersecurity.
And then on the short term, he's looking at style, tilt, seasonality, and PMI recovery.
And within there, he then gives the breakdown of all the themes and how much he's investing
into those.
And when you start to look at these companies, I'm kind of like, hey, this is probably a
basket of assets that I would go ahead and create.
This is probably aligned to where my thesis is.
And I can just buy this in one ETS.
And knowing the rules around ETS,
they're going to be rebalancing this constantly
into the winners and the right approach.
So this is one of the things I'm looking at right now
as a easy button investment that I want to make
that covers my, hey, this is higher risk probably,
but it's more thematic for my investments.
Makes a lot of sense. Thanks for walking us through that. I see Robinhood in here,
which is a good say to another investment that has been quite good. And some big news last Friday,
Robinhood included in the S&P 500 index.
I think it joined AppLovin as well as one other company.
MicroStrategy was left off.
MicroStrategy stock has since sunk on that news after rallying into it.
Robinhood immediately pumps 15% up to $115 a share.
I mean, one of the best-looking charts out there.
Almost 4X off the April bottoms.
Yeah, basically.
3.5X.
The long hood short circle trade.
Looks like it was quite good.
Peter, any thoughts on the hood here?
Were you surprised at its inclusion in the S&P? And how are you thinking about it going forward now? No, I wasn't surprised. And pride
comes before the fall, but we got to give ourselves a pat on the back on the show. We don't call
everything right, but this is probably our best trade. That pair trade, I think, is really,
really sharp. I was actually looking at it yesterday. It's like feeling super prideful about it.
So should I try to take some of this off?
I'm still pretty – I mean, Circle's having a better day today.
I'm still quite nervous about Circle with employee unlocks and investor unlocks,
as well as things like Hyperliquid launching their own stable.
So I still feel pretty good about that short.
Hood, to me, is still one of the best stocks you could possibly own.
One thing I thought was really interesting that Guy said on the Empire podcast was
if he wasn't building Athena, he'd be working hard on building perpetuals for traditional equities.
Robinhood is really the only company I know that's focused there.
I think that's fascinating.
If anyone is working on something like that, I would love to know, love to invest.
That's something I'm thinking a lot about myself.
So to me, the world just continues to incentivize more speculation.
People want levered speculation.
And Robinhood is at the center of all things speculation.
So I think there's a ton of room to run still.
So I think there's a ton of room to run still.
Obviously, I generally wouldn't advocate buying something that's up 200% in the year that's just running like crazy.
But I still believe in it long term.
Obviously, being included in the S&P 500 is massive.
All those passive flows really benefit Robinhood.
So couldn't be more bullish on the company.
It's fun to get something right.
And yeah, it's something I look at every day is the Robinhood price. couldn't be more bullish on the company. It's fun to get something right.
And yeah, it's something I look at every day is the Robinhood price.
And the product is great.
And even in prediction markets,
which is another topic I've been following really closely,
obviously big investor and underdog.
We partnered with crypto.com for prediction markets
and Robinhood is focused there as well.
So a lot of interesting things happening and yeah,
that pair trade worked out really well.
So hopefully some listeners got in on that one.
Well, I was going to say one of the,
I think one of the themes that Robin Hood has leaned into,
A, they keep expanding their business and finding new product lines.
They partnered with Kalshi.
So a lot of the sports betting prediction markets run through Kalshi,
I believe, are run through Robinhood.
And that's driving some tremendous volume.
Kalshi reported $440 million plus in week one NFL volume.
That was before the Bears-Vikings game closed last night,
so it probably came in even higher than that.
And Robinhood is getting their cut of that as well.
And I think you can just expect those to go higher.
I'm sure we'll talk about that more.
For the S&P inclusion, some folks, if you're not familiar with this thing,
there's a couple of sides.
So one, you get the ongoing flows for everyone who's buying into the S&P 500.
But what you also get is some rebalancing flows up front for funds who have to take shares, companies who get kicked off.
You sell those, you add others to get to a more balanced bag.
So this can be a real boon.
And that's why most stocks pop fairly significantly in the first few days
and then usually in the weeks going forward, barring some other broad macro event.
So I think it's hard to be near-term bearish on the hood.
The flip side was MicroStrategy not getting in.
And maybe this quickly sags into the debt trade, the debt discussion.
That's cooling off.
Let's see.
MicroStrategy is down 18% this month, much to the chagrin of holders.
I'm seeing more and more folks upset on the timeline.
So for prospective Bitcoin is down 6%.
MicroStrategy strongly underperforming, down 18%.
Geez, maybe I'll toss it to you. Were you surprised that MicroStrategy did strongly underperforming, down 18%. Geez, maybe I'll toss it to you.
Were you surprised that MicroStrategy did not get in?
Pardon me, do you think they will get into S&P 500 on some time?
Do they even belong?
Am I surprised? No.
I'm not surprised.
I think people are still hopeful that it gets in.
still hopeful that it gets in. But man, I still think there's a lot of people that are very
hesitant to have a company like that sitting in their retirement bucket. And I do believe that
if we do see more treasury companies that are sitting in ETFs out there, taking up a decent
percentage, there's going to start to be ETFs on the other side of that.
So S&P 500 excluding crypto companies.
And I think those ones could be incredibly popular as well, especially with folks who maybe don't want crypto in their portfolio.
You know, I was at a neighborhood picnic over the weekend and getting to know one of my neighbors.
He's a doctor, a really nice nice guy him and his wife were there and i explained to them what i do you know
i'm hey i work in crypto i work in venture we invest in early stage companies blah blah blah
and without skipping a beat she looks right at me and goes isn't crypto a fucking Ponzi scheme?
And I was like, no, it's not.
Let me explain to you.
And it's usually an uneducated perspective,
but it's still, both of them were like,
I don't want any of that in my retirement, blah, blah, blah.
And I think that there's going to continue to be backlash for having really big companies like this included
in those indexes that cover large swaths of people.
And so I'm not surprised they didn't get in. I'm happy for Robinhood. They're an incredible
company. They're well-deserved. They're a great business. And I couldn't be more stoked for them.
They're a darling when it comes to American tech. And I think that there's a lot of opportunity
going forward, especially when you look at them potentially being a key part of the infrastructure for Trump's baby savings program.
That's $1,000 for every single child that's going to be sitting as just additional AUM for them potentially.
So anyway, long story short, not surprised they didn't get in.
I think there's a world maybe where they can one day,
but I do think it's going to be an uphill battle.
I would love to see MicroStrategy get in.
I don't know if it really, if it makes sense, to be honest.
Like, it would be great for Bitcoin.
It'd be great for our bags.
Does it make sense as a company to be included,
effectively a treasury co for
Bitcoin coin base is already in hood isn't in.
So you have,
there's a few crypto at least adjacent plays in the S and P 500 now.
So I don't think it's coming anytime soon.
I don't think it's coming in 2025.
But for some hopium to leave folks with some hopium,
it does companies who are on that short list to get included and get passed
over.
They do have a bit of a,
there is a trend that they do get included in future rounds.
And I've been tracking companies who've been kind of on that short list for a
while and have eventually gotten in.
So there is some hopium there,
but maybe don't,
don't hold your breath. Well, we've got
about 20 minutes left in the show. We've got to talk about hype and helping to celebrate a new
all-time high. Deez, I'm going to plug you in for this one. How are you feeling at 55, first off?
And congrats. We got the stable coin news kind of out of nowhere.
I haven't been following it super in the weeds.
I know Peter said he was,
he was catching up on it before the show.
So curious if Peter has thoughts as well,
but how are you thinking about hype at this level and playing it for the
rest of the year?
Yeah.
The stable coin news was new to me yesterday.
I got back home from this wedding.
I was gone from Thursday to yesterday.
And I don't really think that was priced in much at all.
I kind of had a line at like 48, 49 bucks.
And we had tapped that line like one, two, three, four times since July.
And we finally broke through it so just from like uh you know
bullshit ta perspective looks really nice probably don't want to sell a breakout after
um you know a few failed retests and finally break out so i don't necessarily want to sell
any right now like i i mean i'm probably not going to um. I don't think this was super priced in.
I wouldn't be surprised if we're over $60 the next week.
I will sell some probably around $60.
But yeah, I don't think the stablecoin news was priced in.
And I think that adds a bit more upside than people were pricing in before that.
And just from the technical analysis perspective, I really like
how the chart looks after we broke out of that. It kind of reminds me of some other big breakouts
on consolidation. We had one with like virtuals last year, not after we already ran so hard, but
just I generally like these type of plays where you have a bunch of failed breakouts and then
higher lows the whole time
and then an actual breakout.
The chart looks fantastic.
Ascending wedge with a breakout here.
Based on fundamentals,
revenue volume isn't flying all summer.
Now that they're throwing a stable coin.
There was that very brief period
where we were scared
because the CFTC or something came out
and said they were going to make
um you know perps easier to trade for americans and i thought that was the dumbest thing to like
sell hype on if you think they're going to make it easier then we don't need to use a vpn i don't
think that's bad for hyperliquid but i feel like that was the bigger dump the biggest dump we had
this summer was when that news came out and people have reacted any hype fud dump is a buy
it seems like historically uh including the uh what jelly jelly yeah if they're protecting hlp
depositors then you protect the price of hype with your money you don't scream decentralization
and sell the bottom which i fell victim to myself the hype stable coin stuff is wild this hype stable
coin is like massive news why is it all these proposals now
creates a huge opportunity for a player to come in and uh create a stable coin on on the old crime chain. So walk us through it.
So this auction that is happening,
it's not going to be the Hyperliquid team themselves launching this.
They're effectively taking proposals for other players to come in,
building a stablecoin.
Exactly right.
And there's been a number of really strong proposals
from multiple groups wanting to build this
because one, I think it's a huge opportunity
but most of them are presenting this idea
of 95 to 100%
of the
risk-free rate coming in
just purchasing that kite tokens.
So there's a huge
flywheel incentive. I don't know what the
huge incentive is for the players outside of
I'm sure there's some
fees that are to be made here and some opportunity
for them here.
But man, I
still think there's some of the
risks that
initially scared me away from
still exist, potentially.
But I don't think anyone cares.
So right now, what are
the three biggest proposals? It's
Sky, the old maker team
and then there's one athena yeah athena proposal came out an hour ago um another one from like
etherfy and rain and a bunch of folks as well um but the the voting and the settlement is done by
the validators right and there's what 24 validators now or is it done by the validators, right? And there's, what, 24 validators now?
Or is it done by hype token voting?
I thought it was a governance vote from token holders. And that's what Cat CL has been alluding to
as someone who holds one point
or controls 1.3 billion in hype.
So now all these proposals effectively
have to go across Cat's desk.
And they're saying you better learn to speak cat language now. So now all these proposals effectively have to go across Cat's desk.
And they're saying you better learn to speak Cat language now.
So all these serious institutional players have to get the approval of someone who has a Cat PIP on X.
So welcome to Crypto Baby.
But this is a very fascinating story.
Peter, you mentioned some of the numbers for Circle and the impact.
So what, 10% of Circle stable coin is on hype? Yeah.
I haven't validated these numbers.
I just started on a podcast to take it for what it's worth.
I'm just regurgitating what I heard.
But yeah, what they were saying is 10% of USDC supplies is locked on hype or that's out there right now.
And that's a couple hundred million dollars of revenue at 4%.
So if it's replaced with a different stable coin, that certainly is not good for Circle.
It does not seem good for Circle.
And it seems good for hype.
So this is going to be an important.
That is a trend that I think is worth unpacking with stable coins and like
how that whole ecosystem is going to play.
There's going to be a lot of value in kind of owning the end customer.
You know,
I think a big thing that's happening right now that people are talking a lot
about is Stripe and the tempo chain and just how entrenched they are in payments.
That, to me, there's a lot of validity to what they're doing.
And I'd always bet on the Stripe team.
They've built an unbelievable business.
And obviously, their bridge acquisition and just how I think they've been a pressure in terms of where payments are going.
So, I don't know.
I'm trying to think through.
I mean, Tether has an incredible business.
Will they be able to sustain that?
Where does it leave circle?
What about, you know, the TradFi players like JP Morgan?
What are your guys' most recent thoughts, just kind of unstable coins,
most recent thoughts just kind of unstable coins where it's going i'm in the camp i still think
of where it's going?
I'm in the camp.
tempo and stripe building their own l1 is a net positive just because of it um just the seriousness
it brings to crypto more capital it brings overall and i think it it grows the overall pie
it doesn't mean that every other l1 is going to catch a bid.
I think it's probably good for stable coins overall.
I think that's actually something that could be good for Circle even,
just because it brings more people into trading with stables on chain
in a more of a normal part of their life.
More businesses, more people.
So I still view that as perhaps a,
an overall net positive,
but I haven't unpacked it a ton.
I'm curious for others thoughts as well.
If you have anything.
you're on mute.
Tempo sick.
Like I think Tempo is going to be able to control a good portion of the payments components related to, especially US-based companies.
I think they're effectively going to revolutionize payments, reduce costs for vendors and merchants, and they see that opportunity directly in front of them.
So that'll be really interesting to see how they continue to innovate.
I am like looking at Stripe secondaries,
even at the evaluations and thinking there's a hell of an opportunity still
with them. So I think Tempo is going to be really interesting.
You're going to be able to see the partners, how they choose to roll it out,
how they choose to, I'm really interested in seeing the privacy components,
how they bring partners on, what that experience is like.
And then, you know, there's, there's a lot for them to do.
And so it really deteriorates the other payments related sell for Ethereum.
I think a lot of this is actually bearish Ethereum to some extent. There's always going to be the on-chain community. There's always going to be
folks who operate within these ecosystems, but the real volumes that we want for and from payments
are going to likely be integrated into these like corporate chains, I think over time.
I think there will be, but I'm not sure if that's necessarily bearish for Ethereum or not,
or if there will be other outweighed benefits.
One of the big sales, though, is that Ethereum, at the end of the day,
would be the global settlement layer.
And it strikes able to settle, you know, a fair amount of transaction volume and a fair amount of,
commerce based volume in the United States that,
that deteriorates it quite a bit.
The dream of it,
at least,
you know,
part of the dream,
not the full dream,
but part of it.
It does feel like some recent,
more stable coin focused chains like plasmas chain, maybe that takes a hit here from Tempo.
But we'll certainly see how it continues to play out.
Well, it looks like we may have temporarily lost Deez.
I was actually going to plug them in to a quick conversation on OpenSea and their announcement.
We're going to get to the giveaways here in just a few minutes, folks.
This is my last topic for today.
But if you didn't see this, if you've been even following NFT since 2021,
even in arm's length, you do need to know about this.
So yesterday, CMO of OpenSea, Adam Holder, came out with a quick essay,
major product updates, new mobile app with an AI focus, a new flagship NFT collection,
and a new set of rewards incentives for trading NFTs on OpenSea ahead of their token drop.
They did confirm that that C token, we don't know when it's coming, but a major update is coming in October. So my interpretation, we will
learn more concrete details about that OpenC token here next month.
And we're finally in the sprint
to that TGE. A bit to unpack,
I shared some thoughts on FOMO here this morning. I think they needed
a refreshed mobile app.
Their mobile app had been lagging behind.
There wasn't really a whole lot you could do on it
other than just basic searches.
The flagship antique collection makes sense.
Their own treasury, their own little mini DAT.
They started with the CryptoPunk.
I think that made a ton of sense.
Seen some fun.
It's only going to be like a $1 million fund at least to start.
Not a huge splash,
but it'll be enough to at least garner some positive sentiment.
I think across these various communities,
we'll see how they continue to grow it.
But arguably the most important part was this final phase of rewards.
So they are doing 50% of all platform fees for the foreseeable future.
We'll go to their rewards program.
They did raise their fees from half a percent to 1% as a part of that,
which also got a bit of flood on the timeline.
But they're setting up this new prize vault.
It's already seeded with a million dollars in OP and ARB tokens.
They're going to launch this rewards portal.
There's some details here you can check out for the ins and outs
of how that all is going to work.
But TLDR, more incentives to trade NFTs on OpenSea
ahead of their upcoming TGE,
which should, in theory, drive volumes up.
It should drive NFT prices up as well.
At least that's my view on this um
jeez it's all c i'm curious for either of your thoughts
how does this impact your view of the c-tone do you think it's going to launch this year
and how is how is this set up are they set up for success yeah i think we see it this year and i
can't wait to get it and sell it.
I think this is going to be a huge liquidity event into meme coins and other speculative assets.
I think there's so many people from that first NFT cycle that are ready to get this airdrop,
sell it, figure out what they want to do with it. And look, maybe there's a world where OpenSea token can thrive.
I don't see the path forward to it.
I think this is an instant airdrop sale across the board.
So I think everyone is thinking that.
And I feel like OpenSea knows that as well.
So I am curious, you know,
what tricks they may have up their sleeve to combat that.
Maybe take a play out of Pump's playbook and not even do the airdrop right away.
Let the token trade for a bit.
There might be pitchforks in the street if they do that.
But Deez, I'm curious for your thoughts.
We were just going over the OpenSea news.
Not sure if you had a chance to catch up on this since you've been back but pretty marquee update and curious
for your thoughts about the the token and what opens he's doing here yeah i think if there aren't
incentives to hold the token um immediately like it's just gonna be a dump fest by a bunch of
people um i think they have a stronger use case for their token than something
like magic eden or blur or the other platforms we've seen um drop tokens so i do think it'll
have a little bit more stickiness but um yeah if they're giving me a bunch of tokens with no
uh juicy incentives to hold them I will probably be selling them immediately as well.
I don't really...
I don't like how they're adjusting
the fees.
They're raising the fees from 0.5% to 1%.
I think that's just another
win for Gandhi in this
war for higher end or marketplace
type volume stuff.
We've already seen Gandhi
become the default
trading platform for people doing uh swaps through brokers and you know five plus eth four items um
that being said if there is any nft token to succeed if it's not this what is it i don't know
but i will most likely be selling i mean I mean, just to give an example here,
last cycle I did over $10 million worth of volume on OpenSea,
and that was back when their fees were over 2%.
So I've paid them well over $200,000.
And that's only in one wallet.
I'm pretty sure I've also done a good amount of volume on the wallet.
So in my head, if they're giving me any substantial money back i'm taking it and i'm gonna be happy but it's tough i think they're doing a lot of
things right in a very tough situation they're fighting an uphill battle i think this incident
both of you expressed is pretty widespread folks want to get a token and sell it so they're gonna
have to get pretty creative with the, with this token
drop in with managing expectations. So we'll see if they're able to pull it off, but it looks like
it actually could be happening in the nearish future. Well, folks, we got through our topics.
I think it's giveaway time. So reminder, we're going to do two giveaways, one for a random
morning minute affiliate, and then one for a live listener. So Charlie, if you are with us, are we able to spin the wheel?
How are we looking here?
All right.
I see a wheel.
It's a good sign.
We're spinning, folks.
All right.
So 4K3 LLC.
What's their handle?
4K3 Music.
It's a little zoomed out.
But yeah, 4K3 Music.
You have one that is going to be $500 for you.
So the team will connect with you after the show and work on getting those funds.
So that was for the Morning Minute Affiliate.
This will be for a live listener,
what several of you have been waiting until the end of the show for.
So let's spin that wheel.
Let's see who wins.
Higher gas fee. All right. Gas fees have been too low. Who wants higher gas fee all right gas fees have been too low who wants higher gas fees well he'll be able
to afford some of those gas fees with that 500 that they just won so congrats to both of you
and thank you to our partners at yeet for making this happen a fun little twist at the end of
today's show so for both of you,
again,
the team will connect with you offline after the show to work through those.
Well,
folks,
thanks for tuning in.
We'll thank all of our listeners.
As always,
thank my co-hosts.
We will be back next Tuesday and maybe a little bit alpha.
Jeeves and I might be back sooner than that.
They have a little surprise in store for you here still to come this week.
So stay tuned.
Until then, enjoy your Tuesday.
Enjoy the rest of your week.
We'll talk to you soon.
Bye. This is the end. Thank you.
