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REITS - WOLF EU
Recorded: March 12, 2026 Duration: 0:16:28Space Recording
Full Transcription
Music Thank you. we do apologize for the tech issue just re-inviting our guests back up i don't know
why but x glitches sometimes uh so do bear with us one second, adding our speakers. We were in such an awesome conversation midway.
I'm just re-inviting everyone back up.
Do apologise, everyone.
One moment.
All right, everyone back.
Inviting all of our guests back on hello hello my check one too
got it can you hear me aware yeah typical x uh because i was like my internet's fine
oh yeah i know right i was like i was getting into the weeds. I was like, it's getting so good.
And it was just like, oh.
This is so crazy.
I know.
The whole question regarding what would happen in case of job losses.
And let's say if the oil prices keep staying high.
I thought that question was really interesting. And I was looking into this a little bit in the background and it seems like
um similar to what sandip was talking about it seems like logistics um and light industrial
reits could potentially benefit from that because of near shoring, especially in times of uncertainty. So they want to bring industry and so on back.
So a few tickers that could be interesting
regarding that team could be Segro,
so S-E-G-R-O on your next Paris.
And then we also have, let's see here,
was another one I had up here.
From the logistics perspective,
there's the warehouses DePaul also on Euronext,
but in Brussels.
So it's two interesting tickets to consider.
Sorry, I'm just getting the invites back out.
Yeah, so we did cover quite a few names here on
the list today as well um one thing i didn't cover actually was where is the money going
um so for europe at least um i can see that industrial logistics are around the 24 or almost
25 percent share of the market that's growing so e-commerce is the
main penetration as i think you mentioned earlier sandeep 16 of the e-retail turnover in 2024 and
that tripled in 2015 levels uh so ryan r i can't have to butcher that r-h-i-n-e r-u-I-N-E-R-U-H-R. And their rents are 8% or more year on year.
So the cap rates on that is sub 4%.
Segros, you mentioned, they obviously had a record leasing in 2025
with the data centers converging into logistics land banks
and the dominant sector by market share as well.
And then we have the residential. that is about 24.73%. That's more
structural investment there. And that's kind of steady. So Europe's fastest growing investment
category, of course, is the housing undersupply, structural across Germany, Netherlands, France,
and the index linked leases as well. Government housing agenda that is about policy
tailwind and Venovia I think you did mention earlier as well that's 540,800,000 apartments
and in Berlin they are reletting and reversion running 25 to 39 percent above in place of rents
as well. Then we have the more commercial, the office space. So that's,
well, I know a lot of us are sort of working from home and obviously AI changed all, you know,
the working landscape as we know it, including our jobs. That is taking about 19%. And that's
biophilicated in the trend. So that's grade A CBD, supply constrained, but prime rents at record highs in Paris.
So we're looking about €1,250 a month there for vacancy below 6%.
And La Défense Suburban, 15% vacancy there.
That has a structural impairment for for office is a basically a stock
pickers game so be careful in that area uh location quality is everything as you know uh only in the
own city center assets obviously where that's more attractive for investors um retail space
itself the premium i'm talking about um so that's around 15% of the market share.
And that's actually recovering in terms of the real estate side. I think it's Clépier retail
sales, 3.4% and footfall about 1.8% up, double the national retail indices. So people are going
back to the shops and doing some shopping
in person rather than online so that's nice to see so you are w sales that's 3.9 percent footfall
there and vacancy is about 4.6 which has been the lowest since 2017 in some areas so premium walls
are winning their secondary malls continue structural decline so we're looking at retail it's really interesting
retail higher end luxury retail getting the footfall there um increase sandy what are your
thoughts on that yeah but again if someone were to say uh sorry can you guys hear me yes okay if
someone were to say that i'm not very if an investor were to say I'm still very
I feel a little sus on retail retail landscape because the logistics landscape is improving
that is a pretty good point to make actually if e-commerce improves would you uh use it
would you go to the retail shops more often but you go to the high street more often probably not
if you are well-heeled then uh if
you're one of those well-heeled people who want uh very exclusive boutiques is there a potential for
the entirety of any major european city being filled with the well-heeled with the top of the
line boutique shops i don't think so so it is an interesting it is an interesting thing to say a
So it is an interesting thing to consider, but I would lean a little bit more on the logistics side.
For example, if you are considering sea growth to be for Western Europe, then there is CTP for Eastern and Central Europe.
And the growth rates there have been better than sea growths in terms of penetration, primarily because they have nearshoring advantages.
Most of Europe's industrial infrastructure is moving towards Eastern Europe and Central Europe.
So, from the, within the EU that I'm talking about. So when you're shipping goods from Central and Eastern Europe over into Western Europe,
CTP has been making a little bit of advance, has been making a little bit of inroad in capturing that part of the market.
So CTP is another thing to take a look at rather than retail.
Again, I'm not going to be, I'm not going to poo-poo retail space investments, but I would look at growth first.
And the likes of CTP, C-Grow are looking really, really good right now.
But again, let's say I want something very, very specific and with sure growth.
And I was wondering why I can't remember this name before.
There is a British company known as Primary Health Properties, PHP,
which invests in
primary health care facilities you know surgeries and stuff like that in the uk and ireland it's
pretty got a unique it's got a pretty unique income structure it's basically government backed
so uh it is paid for by the nhs or by the state uh the the state. Essentially, the government pays the lease on these properties.
So basically, it's recession proof.
So this is another kind of interesting thing to look at
if you are kind of investing into the REIT space in Europe.
Again, if you are going to talk about retail,
there's also Unibail Rodamco Westfield, URW.
So it is making the point that you just
made, Eva, that it is saying that in 2025,
tenant sales grew nearly 4%.
And vacancy rates at their flagship malls
have hit their lowest levels since 2017.
And they've also been proposing a major hike, dividend hike,
this year going from 4.5 euros year going from 450 euro 4.5 euros and it's targeting
5.5 euros for the fiscal year so again if you're making a dividend play maybe this makes sense but
if you're making a sort of like a macro play i like the logistics a little bit and i like this
idea that i can make money off the government essentially if i buy something like php so that
is something to think
about when you come to the read space which is quite unique for europe and maybe something that
americans for example are not very familiar with the idea that government is paying for health care
i mean again unique concept but uh you will find when you go eastwards out of from america
pretty much everybody does this including china and India. Some great thoughts here today. Yeah so we're just going to be wrapping up today
as we have a tight schedule show due to the daylight savings here in the US. Some fantastic
names covered overall. We had Segura, Vinovia, Lansac, Vinci I think as well. Fervovio is another
one. So yeah so would you say I know we were talking about earlier with Will,
he had to drop off,
is quality investing in some of these REIT names
better versus than an ETF, would you say?
Oh, okay.
I would argue that REITs are better than buying government bonds because their yields are a
little bit better but ETFs always have this growth narrative implied in some of their stocks which
produces out which can have the potential for outsized performance it's if you want to think
of it as this way like think of REITs as being an equivalent of an acceptable alternative to investing in
treasuries but I would not consider replacing ETS with REITs altogether per se.
Interesting yeah so as Will also mentioned I believe earlier higher rates on a REIT may not
always be great if they continue to push higher with the yield.
So yields is something to watch out for when investing in this space, of course.
Also do your own research there.
Any last remarks, Nat or Alex?
I think the reassuring case is interesting.
Maybe I probably wouldn't play that from a longer term
investor standpoint but from a strategic standpoint if there is something going on in robotics because
robotics is obviously going to be quite important in order to bring bring back this kind of logistics
especially if manufacturing especially if there's going to be job losses
or lack of population and so on.
So robotics is going to be important grid infrastructure,
but it's something I'm going to put on my scanners.
So it could be something interesting
at least from a strategic place.
I think a fantastic name that Nat brought earlier on was the,
was it A-C-H?
What was the ticker symbol?
A-H-R, American Healthcare Reap.
Yeah, fantastic chart there along with the growth on that.
But obviously keeping up to date with, you know, yields and whatnot, and whether it's a temporary hold. I personally am a bigger fan of that than any of the AI ones, just because of the narrative of AI just has so much more high exposure. And again, I don't know if it's going to be like similar what the tech crash was, right? Might be hype with the ai as we've also covered in uh previous shows before in the past so i want to thank all of our listeners and
all of our guests for coming on today i know if you had to drop off but if you want to repost the
other show um you can come back and revisit some of the names we had i'll pin that on my profiles
there for you guys for a bit um apart from that i want to thank you all for
coming um next week we are going to be exploring i believe it's going to be the french market um
so we know we love our bourgeoisie market uh with the luxury and we actually the french market has
a lot of defense and energy names in there too so it's's not all about your Hermes or your LVMH.
So we have like Ebba, Schneider, Dallas.
We know we have some great names we can talk about.
And I will be bringing back Will on the show for next Thursday.
We're going to talk about, we have to talk about this.
It's the highest volatility on the news right now is oil and the petrodollar
and how that's going to affect Europe
and the energy and security space as well. Not only that, but I also want to know globally as
well. So we'll definitely be covering some exciting topics next week. Alex, anything there you want to
Yeah, Nat, Nat, go for it. Yeah, I just wanted to say real quick on the oil front, some of us over at Wolf Bitcoin, we did catch that trade.
We got in around 77 for crude oil and wrote it all the way up and then shorted it at 110.
So oil has been it's been very interesting. Right.
We dug into the oral narrative and the potential for a war.
All of it, all of it kind of was playing out in the charts, right? In December, we were on spaces,
kind of digging into some of these charts and the oil chart, the energy charts for XLE, Oxy,
USO, WTI, all of those charts look very, very interesting. And we saw that XLE kind of broke
out. It was front running something, right? So we dug into the chart and we were able to thankfully
take advantage of the oil trade but it like will mentioned i believe the higher oils the longer
oil stays above a certain level it'll bring caution right to the global markets so something
to think about yeah fantastic we'd love to have you back on if you're free as well and yeah i'm
excited to cover all of that
and all things Europe as much as possible
over here at Wolf Europe.
Sandeep, want to thank you for your time.
Nat Nat as always.
Alex.
Thanks everybody.
Very interesting.
Awesome.
Have a great day guys.
And we'll be back for our trading show here
in about 10 minutes.
Actually, I believe the guys actually already started over at Wolf Trading.
So, yeah, come back and join us for that if you're into trading for the equities and futures.
See you guys.
See you. Bye-bye.
