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🔴 REKT Vision - LIVE Crypto Market Analysis
Recorded: April 4, 2025 Duration: 1:06:52Space Recording
Short Summary
In a recent discussion, crypto enthusiasts explored the resilience of Bitcoin amidst market volatility, the potential for global economic shifts to drive adoption, and the emerging trends in AI-related cryptocurrencies. The conversation highlighted the strategic approaches investors are taking, including DCAing into riskier assets and the growing interest in meme coins.
Full Transcription
We get all of that all in one place in Singapore.
What more can you ask?
It's a brilliant, brilliant event,
and you'll come away with lots of new ideas
and a better understanding of this incredible exponential world. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Well, we are back. Real vision, wrecked vision. It feels like I've aged a few years over the last
few days. But then I look at the price and we are back again at 83k. You could have fallen asleep
for the last few weeks and still been at this level, avoided all
the drama up and down, avoided the FOMO, avoided the fear. We are just back at 83k. How's your week
been, OSF? Yeah, it's another one of those weeks where I feel like we've had extreme volatility.
And I look at the weekly price action on Bitcoin since we did this last Friday and it's
down 4%. Apparently it's down 4%. I think we had a little bit of a rally last Friday,
which carried on into the weekend, didn't it? How's my week? I don't know. I think I don't even really know what to say. I think Trump's
cavalierness continues to surprise me. I still feel like this is not that big a deal and that
I'm bullish and this is a good spot to buy. And just doing the same thing that I've been doing
for what feels like an eternity now.
Every time we get to lower levels on my buy list, I buy a bit more.
And I'm thinking, well, I should have started this buy program probably a couple of months later than I did.
But I guess that's why you DCA and don't go all in in one go.
But yeah, they always say that I always like to use this term, like when it feels the most
horrific, that's when you're supposed to be buying. And let me tell you, it feels pretty
horrific now. Um, and, uh, it doesn't feel great to be buying. So I just hope that at some point
in time that some of these buys will come good. And we've had, it's weird. We've had glimpses of,
like I had a moment, like probably a week ago where a lot of my DCAs were like well in the
money by a good amount by 30, 40, 50%. And now everything's like well out of the money
again. So it's just, and this is by the way, this is all altcoins. It's not really even
Bitcoin. Obviously Bitcoin has been in a narrow, narrow range here, but.
Yeah, it does feel, it does feel like that. Like this week, you'd be forgiven for freaking out a little bit. We've had a monstrous sell-off in the US stock market.
Fear and greed index for US stocks hit close to an all-time low.
I think it hit like four today.
And obviously, this is on the back of tariffs.
And just this is on the back of before that, worries about China and them catching up on some of the AI boom.
And it just wasn't a great period here for U.S. stocks.
That being said, crypto has just kind of outperformed the whole time.
At least Bitcoin has.
Bitcoin dominance has gone up to 83 percent.
Obviously, gold hit an all-time high or multiple all-time highs as well on the way up.
And Bitcoin's just kind of been in that world where it's not quite following gold and it's
not now not quite following stocks.
So it's just stayed where it is.
Both of them are kind of tugging on the correlation and it's just been basically in a straight
line.
The tariff news, though, I agree with you.
That did shock me.
I personally was not a fan of how those tariffs were enacted.
I thought it was slightly, it's just kind of not what I thought was the initial sell.
You know, we're going to go after reciprocal tariffs.
It seems to have been based around, you based around the trade deficits rather than tariffs themselves. And this now presents a tough scenario, I think,
even in the negotiating table. What did you make of all the tariff headlines? Are you just looking
through it and being like, global liquidity is about to go higher? Or do you think this is the ability to take stocks down like 30% to 40% even from here?
I don't think tariffs are that big a deal.
Like, I think there's a lot of talking a big game here.
There's a lot of posturing, I think.
I think the market immediately assumes the worst case scenario.
And they see numbers like that and think, oh, this is really bad.
All these are going to be implemented tomorrow and it's going to be horrific for the markets.
It's kind of like the inverse of the whole Bitcoin reserve stuff when everyone's like, oh,
it's going to get signed and they're going to start buying Bitcoin tomorrow. This is like the
inverse of that. It's like, oh, these tariffs are horrific. It's going to happen tomorrow and we're all going
to crash and we're going to fall into a recession right now. I think it's the opposite. I think
these things, we're now going to enter a period of negotiations with every single country on this
list, a lot of back and forth. The reality is these aren't going to get implemented to 100%
of the value. It's not even really possible.
I think the China retaliation today maybe throws a little bit of a spanner in the works, but it also maybe makes them realize they can't be this aggressive on stuff and they have to find some
sort of middle ground. Again, if you look at what happened with tariffs in 2018, 2019, you had a lot
of back and forth and eventually you got to a better spot by the end of
it. Because I think it's just in every party's interest to come to resolution than to not come
to resolution and eventually you get there. Will we get a full resolution of everything? No. But I
think from this point onwards, you will see progress. I think you
could only really see progress from this point onwards. And I think it will take time for
it to happen. But I'm not seeing it as like, oh my God, this is so bad because this is
going to be terrific for global trade and we're all going to plunge into recession because
I just don't think Trump is that stupid or the people around him are
that stupid to do that I know a lot of people will disagree with me there um yeah I think it's
going to escalate from here honestly like I I don't share the view that some of these other
countries necessarily feel like they have to um have to do a deal with the US. I think some of them will also look to be more insular,
and that may even affect growth.
But that also could be bullish for things like Bitcoin.
That's kind of my view.
I think China and the US could continue to escalate even this.
I think even with the EU, it could escalate as well.
I don't think it will escalate as well um i don't think it will i don't think it will escalate like
the same it was the same thing you know seven or eight years ago and it just de-escalate like it
would escalate and then it would immediately de-escalate and then you'd escape then it would
de-escalate and i think we're at the point where we've had this escalation and i think from here
the next move is it de-escalates. I don't think it gets worse from here.
Yeah, like I said, I continue to think that it will probably,
my view is that it'll escalate.
I think this is the first move,
and then you're going to see the retaliation from the countries,
and then you'll maybe see another round of retaliation.
And yeah, everyone will dig in,
and maybe it's months down the line that you start to see that resolution.
But I do think that, at least even in the short term,
this can get even worse than it has in terms of like headline figures for tariffs. And maybe then, maybe then that,
that provides the solution in a few months.
But I also just think that the motives here are slightly different.
Like the world is different than four years ago. Like the, the, the global,
The globalists, their power has kind of fallen away largely in a lot of different countries.
you know, the globalists,
And a lot of countries have looked a lot more insular.
So I think that this could be a bit of an upending of global trade and it can lead to a sustained worry here, at least for the stock market.
That being said, I think this will now
lead to massive money printing, particularly in places like China. The only way China can really
deal with this, in my opinion, is to announce massive domestic stimulus. And I think that
could happen in a range of different countries as well. We, we're not going to do a deal with the US,
but we're going to do a massive stimulus plan for like China first.
Do you know what I mean?
And I think that leads to massive money printing globally.
That's kind of how I think it plays out,
which is still a more bullish scenario for something like Bitcoin,
but maybe not that bullish for global stocks.
Particularly for some of the ones that make up the Fortune 500,
of which rely on global supply chains
and decades of built-up multinational organizations.
I think those could actually still be under some worry
for a little bit here.
The funny thing to what you just said with regard to money printing,
which I would have agreed with,
and that was kind of like one of my main things.
I still do agree with,
but I think Powell is giving a speech right now
and his comments as of a few minutes ago
were Fed Chair Jerome Powell says he expects President Trump's tariffs to raise inflation
and lower growth. He indicated that the central bank won't move an interest rate until they
have greater clarity.
I think that's 100% true though. Sorry, just to be very clear. I don't think that Powell
can reduce rates here. You're going to see massive potential inflation in the US. But
the rest of the world, the rest of the world can print a lot.
And that's where I think the majority
of this stimulus is going to come from.
I don't think Powell can cut rates here.
I really don't.
He's up against the wall here.
You can't see this much inflation potentially
and that not then go to cut rates.
They may do money printing by another way where they say, hey, we're going to recapitalize the banks.
But the idea that they'll buy assets, I find, or reduce interest rates, they can't cut interest rates.
And that's not cut interest rates in this world.
But they could maybe do money printing by another way just to sure up the financial system.
Those comments from Powell follow a Trump tweet a few minutes ago as well, saying this would be a perfect time for Fed Chairman Jerome Powell to cut interest rates.
He's always late to cut interest rates.
So it's just back to that.
I think, again, this is once again a repeat of 2018 when Trump was doing the same thing.
He was like, cut rates, cut rates, cut rates.
And eventually they did, but that was maybe a slightly different story
because the Fed completely pivoted on their view on inflation
and they had the right view then.
Can I, without getting overly political,
do you think this is an economically sound thing to have done
i'm a little bit i'm a little bit because because for example we would go down how this list was
done the these this tariff list it wasn't done on tariffs that country right like it's not like
eu does have a common import tariff of ranging on goods up to, I think, high teens. Japan has high tariffs. India,
for example, has high tariffs. Yet those countries did get some tariffs, but it was the ones,
because it was based on trade deficit. You had countries like Vietnam, which has like a
three to 5% tariff getting tax, getting a 45% tariff put on them.
tax, getting a 45% tariff put on them. I don't know how Vietnam can fix that. They can't come
to the negotiating table with Trump and be like, hey, we're going to drop our tariffs because
that's not what the calculation was. It was just whoever's got a trade deficit. That's why I find
also that the actual room for negotiation here for a lot of the countries that are most effective,
the actual room for negotiation here for a lot of the countries that are most effective,
they can't even do anything. And that's made most ridiculousness with the tariffs on these
places with no people. It's not like that country has 100% tariff against the US.
It's just got a negative trade balance. So I don't know. And then to then come out and say,
Powell's got to drop interest rates. This is going to raise the cost of living,
I think in the U S extraordinarily.
That's if they go through,
right.
It's if they actually implement.
Yeah.
So I'm of the view that this does continue to escalate.
So like,
well,
I guess your view is that this deal,
I think it's a bluff.
I just think it's a bluff.
And I'm not, by the way,
like I'm not a political expert.
I'm not an expert on trade.
I'm not an expert on tariffs.
I'm not an expert on human psychology.
But if I'm just looking at this
as a couch speculator,
I just think it's all one big bluff.
And I think it's all one big opportunity
to kitchen sink as much as possible,
knowing that when you just forget about this whole tariff mess, things are generally in a good spot.
And it just takes him one retraction, which can be covered up and dressed up in a nice way,
which doesn't look like he's standing down, to send everything back up again very quickly.
And you know how quickly people will be able to
come into risk if they think this blows over.
So I just think it's like, okay,
what can we get away with?
Let's start here and we end up here
even if we were there to begin with.
Because if we started there,
we wouldn't even make any progress.
And that's what I think is happening.
So again, I just say that from just guessing.
I'm just guessing.
I don't know.
I think the two variables there is,
if it's a bluff, when does he call it?
Does he call it in a week
or does he call it in six months, 12 months?
Secondly, this is slightly different
than the first time he did tariffs,
which was largely against China.
That was the only real
battle here. He's actually started a tariff battle with every single country in the world
at the same time. So even if you think Trump is some amazing negotiator, of which obviously he
has been very, very good and he's very, you know, his brickmanship is kind of known, this is a
difficult negotiating table. You know, like he's not, he's not even just gone after China, for example.
Australia and the UK both have trade surpluses against the US, and he's put a 10% tariff on them.
But now, what I didn't really agree with what you're saying there, though, is a lot of this, at least for crypto right now, has been priced in.
And I do not see a world now where we do not see stimulus from either it gets walked back into bluff or you see massive money printing to help shore up domestic industries.
You know, you kind of saw a little bit of this already like with and this was with
military with the eu like we're gonna have to spend all this money on on uh you know creating
arms now very similarly i think you'll see policies domestic first policies coming out where
we aim to boost domestic industries coming out of china japan and europe and to be honest the
way to pay for that is with money printing. These countries are already over, have too much debt.
And I don't see a world where China can strap on another trillion dollars of debt without massive
money printing at the same time. So I think we're going to that's that is kind of where i see over the next week we we see a china comes out with hey yeah if you do more tariffs you'll do more tariff but we're
also going to do a big stimulus and maybe the same japan i i don't know if the uk will do it
but like i can see a lot of countries going down that route that can and whether that is a you know
that leads to inflation or not or whether
that's seen as like a hail mary i think that's good for bitcoin and and can drag up crypto so
i've been buying a lot of bitcoin today as i as i told you because i think that's how this plays
out yeah it's hard to i mean i think you're probably not the only person with that view on Bitcoin,
which is why we're seeing its outperformance.
Kind of reminds me of when the, what was that bank that went?
Yeah, for the first public.
No, it was Silver something.
Yeah, Silvergate.
Silvergate, is it Silvergate gate i don't remember the crypto banks
that went and then the crypto banks yeah and then bitcoin sold off for like a moment and then it
was just like turbo bid for forever after that and this feels similar because it's and again like
it's just another one of those things where like it's a quality that's very specific to Bitcoin and not really anything else in crypto,
where both outcomes are somewhat positive for Bitcoin.
Yeah.
But the only difference is this time,
I don't think the stimulus is going to come from the US.
Yeah.
It's going to come from other countries printing money, I think.
You play out the second order impacts of that.
I think it's good for Bitcoin.
For the dollar, it really depends, right?
Obviously, other countries printing would lead to inflation.
But at the same time, maybe this is a slight removal of dollar power in trade.
So it's difficult to work out.
But most scenarios there, I think it's bullish for bitcoin so i think uh i think that's going up and i don't know if that drags up the
rest of crypto with it at the moment bitcoin dominance is again pushed pushed hard like
three percent but it is difficult to work out like that that was my next question. It was like, what do you, cause for me,
I've been,
I haven't really been adding much Bitcoin just because it hasn't gone much
lower.
from,
and I think I last bought some when it would cut like 78 K or whatever.
And we just haven't been anywhere near that since then.
But a lot,
altcoins keep bleeding.
Like Bitcoin dominance, keep going higher. Altcoins keep bleeding. I've been focused
on buying the AI stuff. To me, and this is highly risky because some of this stuff may never come
back and who really knows. But just looking at some of this stuff, it's like, okay, all these
coins are down 99%. And I know there's other people alongside me buying it, some institutions
and stuff. So in a world where you can have two types of Bitcoin rallies, like a bearish Bitcoin
rally, which is maybe what we're seeing now, or like bullish Bitcoin strength, which is when the
market is risk on and Bitcoin gets higher. And I think in the second scenario, when you start to
have bullish Bitcoin strength, which is a general rally in risk assets, I find it really hard to see
some of this other stuff doesn't come back. And just these levels of just your upside downside
is pretty juicy. And yes, you may just be sitting in some of this stuff where
it keeps losing 5%
every week on average
or something like that
or it keeps drifting low
or doesn't move for a while.
But when this stuff moves,
it just snaps up so aggressively
that you don't have the chart.
You can't really say,
I'm going to wait for things
to be better to get in
because it moves so fast
and so quick,
you'll end up buying the stuff
two or three X higher than where it is now if you want to get in then so for me it's like this is obviously like a
a higher end of the risk spectrum but it just i don't know do you not feel like throwing
some darts at that's shit that's down 90 plus percent on the potential that maybe some of this
stuff de-escalates.
Maybe see some money printing across the world,
even if it's not in the US.
And maybe at some point in the next six months,
you do have a risk asset rebound,
where I think some of this stuff is just going to gap up,
can just gap up very aggressively from the levels where it is now.
Also, volumes are very thin.
Stuff drifts a lot lower on not much trading volume. It just seems like to me a good buying opportunity, but maybe it's more of a gamble than a trade or an investment. But for me, I kind of
like the risk rewards behind this stuff. It feels like to me back in 2023 when stuff was down here,
There's rewards buying this stuff.
It feels like to me back in 2023 when stuff was down here.
It's just picking the right thing.
That's the hard part.
Yeah, like on balance, I do think that you can see stuff bounce
just because it's down so much.
It's one of these scenarios where I actually think stocks
could continue to go a little bit lower, though.
When we've seen stocks go lower and the times of Bitcoin
has rallied during there,
it doesn't necessarily drag altcoins up with it.
But I do think that positioning is very light suddenly right now.
You know, like I've told you, I've been in Sonic a little bit.
So I took off parts of like the Delta neutral bits there
and just like left some of those more risk on.
That's the issue.
The issue is,
is that if you look at like activity and all these L ones,
it's not really ticking higher.
So you're really just after a beta play here.
It's not like everyone's coming in to do stuff on them.
It's not like everyone's coming in to do stuff on them.
And then,
And Sonic always comes up pretty high on that.
So like I've looked at that.
I did buy a little bit of Solana today, but I don't know.
Like, it's not like, I don't think it's like some super risky trade or anything like that.
But I just,
I think the one I sleep at night,
brother,
just don't even mention it to me.
Don't even mention it to me,
man.
Like I'm not doing this again.
I think Bitcoin system more obvious trade.
We'll just keep on going higher.
Like every time we do this show,
Bitcoin goes higher and ETH goes lower.
It's like another week.
But yeah, I bought some Sonic,
which I've been pretty vocal.
There's been some interesting stuff there
and it's gone over a billion TVL.
So that one's been interesting to me.
And I bought a little bit of solana today but
solana has felt terrible right solana has really felt terrible over this period maybe that's a good
thing but i i think solana definitely relies on activity so i feel like solana is more like a
bounce trade for me rather than something i'm just gonna hold for a while yeah i yeah that makes sense i i've thought a lot about eth in the past week i
know we've spoke about this last time but let's move on but not like every show like
show from every single commentator in crypto has had probably had this theme
for every week for the last eight to three years oh
it looks cheap here yeah you know it's starting to look undervalued versus bitcoin
anyway but yes let's let's talk about eve uh why is it such a good trade this week
no i yeah it's just it's just tempting like i don't for no other reason than it's at
a price of
1780
or whatever it is
like
it's like
almost the lowest
it's ever been
since I've been in crypto
I know we had that moment
where it went to three digits
ETH's market cap
is 217 billion
still
Solana's market cap
is 60
which one would you rather own? billion still. Solana's market cap is 60.
Which one would you rather own?
It's a tough one, that.
I've liked Solana, but I think a lot of the Solana activity has been predicated on
meme coin stuff, at least from an
attention standpoint, if not necessarily
numbers, but also numbers
so whether that continues or not i don't know um
i don't know whether that continues or not or sonic at one and a half
things always tempting you know yeah i'm not that big a fan of sonic because
i think when you have an event like a big airdrop that everyone knows about and everyone is playing
for um it never really works out if that makes sense unless it's something that everyone ignores
but everyone's talking about it so i'm not you know i had a did a bit of had a bit of activity
in sonic i bought some meme coins in Sonic.
Then I liquidated them today at a 95% loss.
That's not even an exaggeration.
It's not quite easy in the meme coin streets.
But no, I think there's a play.
And we had this conversation a few months, maybe 12 months ago.
Do you remember?
Or two years ago, maybe now.
And I was like,
there's nothing going on on these blockchains. Block space is way more block space than there
is actually people doing them. Solana at the time was trading at like 12 and ETH was trading at,
I think, 2K or something like that, or 1.8. was like i think someone's going to continue to outperform
there's a world here where like i think you see a compression there in a low cap
blockchain which is like got a lot of market cap and a lot of activity
you know can catch up um quite easily like it's it's because there isn't that much going on now, right now.
But anyway, my view right now is to own Bitcoin, as I've said.
I think that's the one that will benefit the most
from global money printing.
I'd still be wary of altcoins in a world where,
even with money printing, just because I think stocks can go,
at least US stocks can go quite a bit lower.
And I don't know if altcoins go higher in that world, basically.
My view is 100% you should have like a majority allocation to Bitcoin
that feels like the most obvious trade.
But I think it's worth taking a punt
on some riskier stuff that is down 99%.
Here we go.
What are you buying then?
I think potentially some meme coins are interesting.
I would say larger cap ones that will be intercycle.
It's the first time I've felt that way in a long time.
I still think the entire ai sector
will have another run at some point this year i think that stuff is really exciting interesting
levels because that's that stuff is really really down like literally not an exaggeration it's down
like 95 like there's a lot of stuff that's down there um and i think some of the some of the other L1s like
I would look at Sol, I would look at Sui
I'd even look at ETH as I've
mentioned
I just think all of it, I think
it's going to be hard to know
some of the stuff may never come back but within
within that mixture of what I just
said, there's going to be some of those things that will be like 3 to 10x trades in there and potentially even more for some of the riskier stuff hits.
And I just want to repeat, it is taking a punt.
It is a gamble.
I'm not saying this is a really good investment.
We should all do this and we're going to make money off it.
But I don't really view myself as trading or investing
in crypto. I view myself as gambling and speculating in crypto. And for me, I feel like
that's worth a gamble. I think for me, I just feel like this is a sort of gamble that I would take
that I've made money on in the past, where you buy things when no one else is buying them.
You have to sit there. You have to be patient.
You have to have some level of conviction.
Like I really do believe the AI stuff will come back.
And that's my conviction,
which is somewhat,
feels somewhat contrarian right now.
And then you just sort of have to sit there and be patient.
And,
you know,
if you lose money,
you lose money,
you write it off.
Just like how,
if you bet on a match,
you,
and you lose money,
it's gone.
Like,
that's how I view it.
but you know, as a thing, What you're saying does make sense.
I mean, the only things that are green on my trading view,
kind of in global markets today,
Fartcoin,
SPX,
Doge,
large cap memes are doing better today.
That is true.
And there is that,
there maybe there is a world where,
you know,
memes and Bitcoin again outperform like we saw at the start of last year,
you know?
I can see that.
I can see that.
But,
but at the same time,
like,
I don't know.
Yeah, maybe. You gotta, I don't know. Yeah,
maybe.
You gotta risk it
for the biscuit.
You can't just...
We've come full circle,
guys.
I think I'm
banging the table.
We can't just sit here
every week and say,
I don't know,
I don't know.
I think we just gotta...
I just told you
I'm risk on today,
but I've been buying
Bitcoin and L1ss i have not looked
at the memes and the memes are actually outperforming today which is kind of funny so maybe now is the
day to buy you know i'm gonna buy i'm gonna buy some fart coin why not you've convinced me osf
this is the day um the global leading indicator of all markets is Vartcoin. It sold off first
before the global market sold off, and now it's looking a little bit strong. So maybe
this is the leading indicator of all markets globally.
Yeah, just again, I think it's worth a punt.
I'm buying some right now because you're kind of convincing me to.
This is the same.
This reminds me of the FA Cup final last year.
That's what this is, is it?
When I'm a United fan, it was the odds on Man United to beat Man City were 10 to 1.
And I was like, well, I don't know if they're going to win or not,
but that's just for a two horse race. Those odds seem way off. 10 to 1? It was literally 10 to 1. And I was like, well, I don't know if they're going to win or not, but that's just for a two-horse race, those odds seem way off.
10 to 1?
It was literally 10 to 1.
And I think I put on like 500 quid or something.
Yeah, before the match.
Yeah, it was 10 to 1 for them to win within 90 minutes.
Wow.
Those are wild odds.
Yeah.
And this is when United were terrible and City were just like
the best team
in the world
only about a year ago
and I also went to
went to Wembley
to watch the match
got my tickets paid for
and some more
but it feels like that
but I'm trying to
for anyone who's
going out there and
putting all their money
into meme coins right now
I'm just reiterating
like that's
my commentary on that cylinder to that risk.
I feel like that's worth a bet,
but bets don't necessarily make you money, actually.
Well, often they're not losing money,
but I think it's worth a bet.
Okay, well, I've made a bet.
All right, I've just done some.
So no financial advice,
but this is the real-time analysis you get on this show.
You know, we've pivoted mid-show from being Bitcoin maxis for six weeks
to now saying now might not be a bad time to buy Farcoin again.
So that is done.
Farcoin is an interesting one because it's at a $456 million market cap,
and I would have had that as much lower.
It's with Pepe,
a little bit,
you know,
like it stayed,
remember when Pepe
did that very similar
sort of move
and then just went sideways
and stayed in this range
for a long time.
Farccoin is up
80% in one month.
Yeah.
That's a material
outperformance of
Todd Ayr rises, man.
Across global risk assets.
And I think it hit a high of, what,
$2.7 billion or something.
Yeah.
Right, well, let's see how wrecked we are next week
with that.
What do you think about,
I mean, I guess we have quite different views
about what's going to happen here
to global markets, don't we?
It sounds like you're of the view that this de-escalates.
I'm of the view that this can escalate, but isn't necessarily that bad for rest of world stocks slash crypto.
I think that's where our main divergence is, right?
Yeah, I think we seem to have a similar outcome for prices,
but maybe a different path to get there, it sounds like.
Just think, I'm just going by history,
which I think is escalation, de-escalation,
escalation, de-escalation.
And even in the context of this year,
you've been paid to take the other side of every escalation and even in the context of this year you've been paid to take the other side of every
escalation and also take the other side of every de-escalation and I think it's going to continue
to be the same until we get to a point where that that band sort of starts to narrow and it gets
consolidates and then hopefully we get to a better point but that's what I think.
Would you rather buy the
nasdaq or the hang saying right now hang saying i think just based on your comments of yeah that's
the thing i think i don't mind buying stocks i think i just i just think china is gonna pop the
hell out of this right now yes i think so i'd still rather go rest of world, which is kind of crazy
because that's been a graveyard trade for a long, long time.
And it's not necessarily a reflection of maybe even the economics behind it.
China, it's very well known.
They have big population issues and the real estate market's a disaster.
But do you think they've got to pump it here?
Yeah. I mean, those have been the big moves. Do you buy blood on some of these tech stocks?
I think so.
Like Tesla and NVIDIA. The other thing that really got hit was anything with the global
supply chain, which is just like everything.
Like Nike was down.
I don't know how much it's down again today,
but I'm sure it's down a ton.
Any of those?
Do you think those ones are still not a buy?
Actually, Nike's up today.
Nike's up today, yeah. I do think some of that big tech stuff is worth a stab as well.
They're off a lot. They're down quite a lot.
I don't think any of this stuff is going away. I don't think the AI narrative is slowing down
anytime. You just saw OpenAI close, a huge raise backed by SoftBank. You've seen the developments
of that in the last two weeks. The entire world is still talking about AI and you're still seeing rapid, rapid development
there. I really don't think that is slowing down any time. And it's not too dissimilar to
how we had just multi-year growth in dot-com stocks, even after the dot-com bubble burst.
And the same thing for tech stocks like Fangs, in in the mid-2000s i think we're
just going to have a multi-year ai boom i wouldn't even call it a bubble like i think it's a genuine
boom and dips are for buying those stocks i think dips are for buying on stuff like nvidia um
yeah i don't i don't think i'm not worried about this Trump trade stuff
I think the only worry for that is
in the dot-com era
some of the initial winners were not
continued winners, I agree that
Nvidia is maybe far more central
I think this is just different
I say dot-com because it's just a similar
tech related thing, but at the end of the day for the the .com bubble, you had crazy valuations on things that did nothing.
Kind of like crypto. But I think for the AI stuff, it's a genuine,
massive efficiency improvement across multiple different sectors across the world.
I can't go throughout my day without using some sorts of AI now.
Like I'm, my circuit board tripped today.
I'm just there like taking pictures on ChatGPT, figuring out how to isolate the RCD and figuring
out how to isolate where it is.
And I just do it all myself.
Yeah.
Without even needing to call an electrician
and it's like
you know that stuff is pretty
I don't know if you should be doing that man
like
it's all good
don't worry
don't worry
I think you're going to
settle down a little bit
just been clipping some cables
it's fine
but I think you know
just
the man you really always wanted to be now
I don't think that I think that stuff is very different to dot-com where it is
very game-changing across over like you know for the whole world and um these things are making
cash flows they're all making massive cash flows like yeah I'm fully with you and I think everyone
kind of is that AI is just a huge, huge tailwind for the world.
But, well, at least if the safety stuff is also kept under control.
But it's just difficult sometimes with these stocks.
I think what we've now seen is that sometimes the valuations,
you know, they can get caught up very quickly with AI,
like,
because AI is able to
replicate stuff so quickly.
Interestingly,
we did see OpenAI
come out with
just a ginormous
funding round,
right?
Like,
came out,
it was valued at
300 billion.
I thought that was
a good sign.
Classic,
yeah,
but,
it was a good sign.
Yeah,
SoftBank,
yeah.
Always there. I think Soft softbank must be no disrespect to softbank but one of the greatest top blasters ever to have lived really
they're always about three months four months late and just triple the valuation um he's also
he's called some incredible stocks throughout the time.
There is something to be said about top blasting, you know?
There is, there is, yeah.
Great point.
Right, I think, should we bring on Team Arch public
to get their views and chat about how the Al algo killed it once again, which I've had
up and running. I was chatting to the guys before the show actually. And so I had a buy on Bitcoin
around 81K or something like that. And a couple of days ago when everything, it was right when
Trump started speaking on Liberation Day, and I think Bitcoin rallied to
almost 89k, and my Bitcoin sold. And I was like, oh damn, I don't want to sell out there because
Liberation Day is great, and we're going to go back to 100k. And then lo and behold, it dropped
like 5% within the hour, and I was grateful for that sale.
Yeah, a great show, by the way, so far.
I find myself in the same boat that you guys are in where I'm questioning, do I get back into some of these 95% down meme coins?
And having those same debates with myself, I will say there's something unique and new about this cycle that Bitcoin has so many different ways to play it.
The chop that's now being presented to us is a heck of an opportunity to, you know, that volatility is valuable.
And so that's one of the things that we love is when Bitcoin is bouncing around within a tight range, especially against other assets
that are more volatile. It's kind of like if you, if you, I asked myself this, if the trade goes
against me, what do I want to end up holding in that case? And Bitcoin is that answer for me,
like you guys have said. And so playing the chop through kind of an arbitrage strategy has proven to be very
effective for us. And the tool that we've created allows you to play those choppy moments to
perfection, right? It's always exiting when there's liquidity because it exits on green candles and it
enters on red candles. And so it plays a way where you can take advantage of these moments where the volatility is moving up and down with significant variance and capture profits in those time periods and remain to your convictions as it pertains to holding something that you really believe in, like Bitcoin versus chasing that yield or chasing that potential in things that if you do get stuck with them and they don't ever recover, it's kind of, you know, it's a lost cause at that point.
So, yeah, we've absolutely customize it and say,
I want the range to be 2.1% or 1.5% or whatever you want it to be.
Can I, can I ask during this down move,
obviously in the other Ethan soul,
which I know you guys have a, have a program for as well. Like how,
how has it performed? Because this is the sort of time, I time i think we were just saying like maybe you do move into a more
risky thing um it has that been more of a obviously they've been in like down trends
have they still made money are they really just like out yeah yeah so just yesterday there was
a soul entry at nearly 117 so you know you got got an entry into Solana underneath where it is right now.
So the profitability has been generally even better in more volatile assets, right? So Solana
has additional volatility. So if you take the arbitrage associated with Solana, you're getting
more action, more yield, and then more to the upside
associated with those assets. In fact, we put out a case study just late yesterday that's on our
website in the support, underneath the support tab, that takes a look at using these three
algorithms all at the same time, which again are all free, Solana arbitrage,
Bitcoin arbitrage, and then Bitcoin accumulation, using all of those at the same time,
generated over the last two years of 53 plus percent CAGR, extraordinary cash yield. And then
that cash yield is then reinvested into Bitcoin, you know, as it's moved
higher from early 2003 until where we are now. So point being is, is that, yes, if you look under
recipe stacks there, if you go to that spot on your left hand side, you're going to see that
case study recipe stacks, right? Almost right there, right? Go up a couple, there you go.
Yeah. And like Andrew said, these are free to use and to play with. Come to the website,
archpublic.com, download the software, schedule a time to walk through the feature set with one
of our team members. And I can assure you it's very flexible and it will get done what you want done
during these volatile markets. And to Andrew's point, the more volatile the asset is, the more
chances that range parameter is met and the more trades that happen. And so if you see, for example,
a candle get exhausted to the selling side and there's an entry put into that. Typically,
when something's exhausted to the selling side, you have some sort of recovery. And if you have
that recovery parameter set properly, you're going to buy at the bottom and sell at the top
of those candles. So it provides you something that you can play the bounces essentially.
So how long before we do this for Farcorn as well then?
Technically we are,
we're working through the list of everything that Gemini offers right now on
their platform. So if Farcorn is available on Gemini,
it will eventually get, get done.
I'm just saying I bought some now and I could do it with trading around the volatility a
little bit. I'm just like focusing on the price now.
Listen, I'll send you my manifesto on DCAing into Fartcoin. It's solid.
Just a reminder to listeners and people watching the show, you know, as it relates to just
broader markets, right?
The oil embargo, 1973, Black Monday, 1987, dot-com bubble, 2000, 2001, financial crisis,
08, 09, COVID in 2020.
Now we're here at tariffs.
Every time it's a buying opportunity, like every single time it's been a buying
opportunity. And so the question is, is it a buying opportunity? That's everything I have
on the sideline. I, you know, smash buy right now, probably not. You scale in during these
volatile times and you're scaling in at smaller prices. You know, it's the question of, you know,
NVIDIA or AI or some of these tech stocks. Yeah, that's a
difficult question. And that question goes to, of those six moments that I listed, which one are we
at right now? So if we were at the dot-com bubble, you would have said to yourself,
hey, I need to buy some Amazon. Well, in reality, Amazon went from like $200 down to like nine
bucks at that point. There were moments where you bought it and it still went down by 50%
and another 50% and another 50%. So is this Black Monday in 1987 or is this dot-com bubble
or global financial crisis? What big difference is there?
Black Monday, 1987, you know, go look at the markets in 88, 89, 90 until we got to 91,
where there was kind of a flat year there.
You know, go look at the markets.
So are we in, is it Black Monday or is it, you know, are we looking at a dot com? And to Andrew's point, the only way to manage those circumstances is to manage your cash appropriately, right?
You only get in trouble in those events when you try to pick the bottom and you smash by all of your capital and at the bottom.
in the base asset that you're accumulating, if you believe in the fundamental value of the Bitcoin
network and its upside potential over a long period of time, then you just are accumulating
and you're accumulating at different price brackets, which is DCAing. And it's going to
give you an entry curve that is less risky than you going in and smash buying all at once. And so
don't smash buy out of convenience. There's tools
like the ones that we've created that will allow you to do a very scheduled method to your madness
so that when I look at it, look at equities and Bitcoin and anything that you're putting money
into, like a clothing brand that you really like. Well, in a perfect world, you'd love to have a lot of pieces in your closet.
But when it comes on sale, that's when you go put more capital to work.
You go accumulate during those sale periods.
And so look at, you know, Bitcoin in the same manner is like you want to own some of it
over the long term.
You should be accumulating intelligently at these depths and you should be managing those in a way that you can set it and forget it.
And you're taking advantage of those volatile moments without having to ride the emotional swings that go along with it.
Yeah.
So I think that's a good point you just said is to bring us back like some of the other major sell-offs because I think most people, at least people that have come in over the last couple of last few years,
they just know the COVID sell-off, of which it was a V-shape.
And you had to have the guts to buy it.
But if you bought it, you just made money straight away.
Other sell-offs can actually go on for a lot longer than that.
I just don't think people necessarily realize that.
2008 went on for a while.
It wasn't just a one-month dip and back.
And then similarly, the 2001 stock market bubble again, that was a while too.
Although, obviously, there were some hairy moments at the start. So like it is a tool like this does, and like you said, DCA
times like this, I think people are maybe not doing that as much as they should. I saw yesterday
was the retail bought the most stocks they've ever bought on a single day. And that
just made me think they think this is like COVID. And this doesn't feel like COVID to me.
Well, retail has been told and they've been taught to learn a lesson over the past 40 years.
And over the past 40 years is it's not buy low and sell high, it's buy low and
sell when you die. That is literally what they've been told by their financial advisors, by Larry
Fink, by BlackRock, by Vanguard, by every ETF company that they've ever put a dollar into.
It's buy low and sell when you die. So if you think about what you just said, Mando,
that retail put the most into stocks
and the history of that is the action
behind the thesis that retail has been taught,
those that have money, by the way,
so let's call it boomers.
Boomers have been taught to buy low and sell when you die,
period, end of story.
So when they see huge dips like this, they think to themselves, opportunity, right?
Eight plus percent in two days opportunity.
I also find it extraordinarily compelling that we're down almost nine percent in two days as we sit here right now.
And Bitcoin is absolutely flat.
Global money supply is going up. Everybody knows it.
And so what happens? There's a lag. And I think that's what the impetus is. I think a lot of
people see some big opportunities in the near future. I think the printing press is going to
have to continue to accelerate. I think that what Trump is doing right now, to speak to some of the things
that you guys were talking about earlier, he's renegotiating our interest rates on all of our
debt. That's what's happening. If you see the yield drop to the largest drop that it's happened
in the last decade happened this week. And that directly impacts the cost of our debt. And so if you can drive
down our debt, renegotiate at better rates, and grow the top line through new investments
domestically, you're cutting the problem from both sides. And so I do think, to your point,
Mando, this is going to be a longer process than next week's V-shaped recovery. I think the V-shape will come when we see major quantitative easing, and I don't think that's right now. I think it's probably a couple of months away.
And in the meantime, I think there's more pain to suffer because I think we want as low of an interest rate as we can possibly get when we start moving the other direction.
We were at the lows with the S&P in 2009. By the way, the financial crisis started in 2008,
and we didn't hit the lows on the S&P until 2009 at 666 and change. I remember that day. I remember
that moment. Mark Haynes was the lead guy in the morning for CNBC, and he came on the show with an army helmet with a medical cross on it.
And he actually said, I think this feels like capitulation. This feels like the lows. And he
actually nailed it. He's since passed, but he nailed that low right there. And then another point of reference is when Trump
took office the first time in 2016, the S&P was at 1900. Before this sell-off started, we were at
6,000, right? So asset prices, equity prices, everything prices have gone absolutely parabolic for the past decade.
And so, you know, an 8% to 10% sell-off, and maybe there's more to come.
We shall see.
But there's, again, historically, there's opportunity here.
It's just a question of when does that opportunity reveal itself to the upside?
Is it in the next month or is it in the next 18 months?
Well, if you had played a mean regression strategy, every time the price of Bitcoin
crossed $90,000 over the last six months, you would have cleaned up because it was like,
it probably did it five times plus or minus $6,000 on each side. That's like game-changing type stacking stats.
You could double your stack in a time period like that.
That's a big opportunity.
I just think one of the, for me,
one of the funniest things right now is that we spend,
and people spend time talking about COVID
and the great financial crisis and
the dot-com bubble. And it's not just this conversation, like it's just over my timeline,
over other conversations I've had. And all these like previous market crashes are being brought up
now as if they're comparable to what's happening now. And I just don't know how much I can
emphasize that this is nothing like how bad those things
were. COVID, we're all fucking locked in our houses thinking, is the world going to end?
And we literally had a global shutdown of the entire economy. It's magnitudes different to
Bill Ackman got on CNBC and said, hell is coming. That's not happening today, right?
Bill Ackman isn't getting on talking about the end of the world, let's call it.
And yes, if all these tariffs are implemented and you have a global trade war, that could
be very bad.
But we don't even know with any certainty if 20% of that is going to happen, let alone
the entire thing.
So I just think we're selling off more because we've just
had an insane run for two years, both in equities and crypto as well. And at some point, people
like, where do I take money off? Why do I take money off? And now there's a reason to take money
off. I wish I thought that, but I think Trump's such a pedal to the metal type guy that if he
could ride a wave of momentum, he would take
advantage of that. So it tells me that the dynamic between our Federal Reserve and the executive
branch is pretty squirrely right now. And in order for him to force them to lower interest rates,
he's doing exactly that. And so what happens when you get lower interest rates?
Everybody can refinance all of their wealth of their real estate and start spending money again. And I think this is just all about lowering interest rates on both our debt and allowing our economy to come up with some liquidity.
Yeah, I don't disagree with that.
I think Trump may want to cause this to happen.
I think to your point, though,
one of his smartest moves here
may be over the weekend,
there was already some commentary
that he's about to do a deal with Argentina.
He could do a deal with Australia
and the UK like that.
You know, we're going to get rid of tariffs there because they've got trade surpluses.
And then he'd be seen to be a rational negotiator that then other countries could be like, right, we'll do this, this, this, this, this.
And if that happens, I do think because everything's been baked in so much, like you said, you could bounce.
But I would be very unsurprised if we have weakness in stocks for a few months here. This is the thing. I think everyone assumes it's going to be a COVID-like
V-shaped recovery because that's been the only real sell-off, proper sell-off that people have
seen since 2008, really. And I think this is more like this could have a, like what you said,
we're going to see a period here where he doesn't mind if stocks go down and
bond yields go down and they've got to refinance, you know, trillion, I think it's above 5 trillion
of debt already this year, right?
So I would be unsurprised if this lingers on for a while, but I think Bitcoin can do
well.
And Ovi was right, talking about the differences today versus like the financial crisis like people were
genuinely concerned that bank of america was going out of business like literally people thought that
that was about to happen um that's very different than where do we land on tariffs with vietnam
and china in the next few months, that doesn't mean that price action
associated with this narrative ends up being elongated and feeling painful. But there's a
huge difference between Bank of America going out of business and trading at $2.26 and, you know, NVIDIA 97.
Right.
So it's reasonable.
Right.
Very much agree with that.
All right.
Well, this has been a great discussion to end it with.
I really appreciate you guys, you coming in there.
Obviously brought us back to all the previous crises as well.
We were probably very young back at the 2001
yeah but yeah thank you i know that also ral did like an emergency podcast yesterday um alongside
jamie coots go check that out i think it's um it's actually uh not just on real vision it's
it's kind of across on his YouTube channel.
And I think he'll be all over the platform at the moment
alongside a load of other people with their hot takes
on what this means for both crypto and broader macro.
So go check it out on Real Vision there as well.
Before we go, yeah, before we go,
got a quick question for everyone
do you think
the trade war
will escalate
or was this a bluff
let us know
in the comments
on the Real Vision website
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Stay positive.
Have a good one, guys.
Yeah.
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