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🔴 REKT Vision - LIVE Crypto Market Analysis
Recorded: March 21, 2025 Duration: 1:03:55Space Recording
Short Summary
In a week marked by sideways movement in the crypto markets, Bitcoin has shown signs of growth with a 3% increase, while stablecoins reach an all-time high of $230 billion. The resurgence of NFT activity and discussions around regulatory clarity further highlight emerging trends that could shape the future of the crypto landscape.
Full Transcription
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我说你不想我说你不想我说你不想我说你不想我说你不想 Hello again.
Sorry I was not here last week.
A bit of a family emergency, you might say.
But I am back again this week for Rekt Vision, our update on the crypto markets, even though
everything seems to be going sideways for a few weeks now. Awesome to see you again
at OSF. How have you been without me? Yeah, things have been okay. I was kind of out a lot of this past week. So it's really
nice to come back and see markets are basically at the same price as it was a week ago with
all that random chop and volatility in between. I think, again, like if you look at the weekly,
even Bitcoin, we're up 3% on the week, which I guess is nice.
Ether is up 5% on the week, some outperformance, which is nice. So yeah, I guess we are up a
little bit on the week across the board, but it doesn't really tell the full story of everything
that happened yet again, as the chop continues and cries from crypto space everywhere saying, stop the chop.
This is, I mean, we've been in chops for much longer than this.
What has surprised me is how narrow the range is, right?
Like we've just kind of bounced around this 83, 84K level.
It feels like we could be in there for a while,
in my opinion.
Maybe we'll go through the macro week
because it was meant to be a very, very volatile macro
week and we did have to see some volatility.
We went down to around 80, went up to around 87, 88, back to 84 again.
Bitcoin dominance has gone back up to around 62%.
In general, altcoins have continued to underperform, but it definitely doesn't...
The fear... I don't know if the fears that still there you
still fearful of us going down to like 70k or lower here?
Not really. It does feel like to me, we seem to have found a
floor and found some stability. At current levels. I think
there's there was a couple of times we went into the 70s. And
that got bought up relatively quick
such that I don't know if we've had any daily candles closed in the 70s. I think the lowest
actual candle closed may have been 80 and a half or something like that. So to me, it feels like
we've seemed to have found a bottom. That doesn't mean that we just V-shape back up and I still, I'm maintaining
we're in for this period of sideways price action, some volatility, some
chop, but it does give me a bit more confidence to be like, okay, you know,
maybe this is now the level where I should be adding some more risk and just
DCA-ing a bit more heavily basically basically, just because it seems to have found
a flaw.
The panic feeling seems to have left the market now.
It just now seems to be more frustration rather than panic, I would say.
Yeah.
I think if you've been around crypto for long enough, you know that we're in a period of
choppy and it could stay like this for a decent period. This week, we did have
quite a lot of different macro pointers, though, I think maybe to touch upon. We had three different
central banks coming out, all not really changing rates at all. Although the Fed, in my opinion,
was a little bit more hawkish than I thought they would be. They pointed to the idea that we'd have inflation, although they used
that classic word transitory, and they reduced their growth expectations. And they said that
quantitative tightening was at least probably going to come to an end. Still only two rate
cuts expected though this year from them. The market seems to like it and then just kind of returns being around 84k.
We've spoken about the idea that the Fed and Germany global liquidity going higher is probably
the major tailwind for this year.
It didn't really fill me with a ton of confidence that they're about to just turn on the taps
or immediately pivot.
What was your take of it all? I didn't. My base case was that we would not see a dovish Fed this month. I think we've started to
see data weaken. We've started to see inflation come a little bit lower, payrolls come lower,
but I don't think there's enough movement on the table for the Fed to pivot or do a U-turn
or give any meaningful message that was different
to the last FOMC.
And remember, the Fed is looking at,
it's kind of looking more at stuff like inflation,
labor market, et cetera, rather than stocks.
So, you know, I think people,
anyone who was expecting the Fed to be materially dubbish
this week, maybe were thinking about stocks and the
move in risk assets. And I think that's less important for the Fed. So that's more of a
byproduct of what happened. So my expectation was we wouldn't see anything that was meaningfully
different from the last FOMC. And that's generally what happened. However, the next FOMC, I believe
is in May, towards the end of May. So we should have two months' worth of renewed data until then.
If we see these trends continuing, so if we see two-handled inflation persist and drift
lower, if we see payrolls continue to drift lower, then I think you will start to see
the Fed become more dovish.
Whether we pivot straight away or whether you start to see signs of a pivot, I'm not
sure.
But that for me is a timeline.
And I think that dovetails quite nicely or not nicely, if you like, with the whole six
month chop thesis and the fact that it will take time for us to break out of this.
I think that is the timeline.
And just given the price action we've had, you've had towards the end of last year, after Trump's
victory, I think the market is a little bit spoiled in terms of instant gratification,
things happening right away. And still everyone wants the moves to happen tomorrow. They want
that V-shaped rally. They want Bitcoin back at 100k and all this stuff. And they want it to happen
right now. They want it to happen yesterday. But it's not going to happen like that. It will just take some time and it'll take some
time for risk to consolidate and clear. But that timing for me makes sense, which I think
sets up for a potential summer rally should the data go the right way and should
Powell step up and start to become a bit more dovish.
Yeah. I felt like on the back of that, I felt like May wasn't going to become a bit more dovish. So yeah, I felt like on the back line, yeah.
On the back of that, I felt like May wasn't going to be a rate cut again, in my opinion.
It felt, but you may get more dovish commentary.
That's what I felt.
Yeah.
I don't think it will be a rate cut.
I still, my expectation is still not for it to be a rate cut, but I think May could set
the stage for potential future rate cuts.
Like I think a surprise rate cut with where the market isn't expecting it,
is not necessarily a good thing. I think it causes a little bit of panic. Whereas when
a rate cut starts to get telegraphed and then it eventually happens, I think it gives time
for the market to digest it and become constructive about it. So I think the Fed are kind of aware
of that as well. I think they just immediately slash rates. It would just put people back
on the wall like, what the hell? We must be in a really bad spot. So again, the data is really, really terrible for the
next two months. So maybe you might see it, but again, that starts to get baked in. So
I don't think we see any surprise rate cuts. I don't think we even see a rate cut in May,
but from May onwards, I think you maybe start to see more rate cuts get priced in, whether
it's this year, whether it's over a 12-month period, I'm not sure. But I think you maybe start to see more rate cuts get priced in, whether it's this year, whether it's over a 12 month period, I'm not sure. But I think the tune starts to change
in the second half of the year. Man, we're going to be doing this show for the next six months and
nothing's going to happen, isn't it? Bitcoin is going to be at 83k. We're going to have to
hopefully. Well, what does happen is when Bitcoin ranges for a while and ETH ranges for a while and
MAJORs range for a while, you do have pockets of performance from other stuff. And in 2023,
that was maybe like Meancoins and Pepe for a little bit. Obviously, you have Meancoins in 2024.
So I do expect, I think if we continue to range like this for another two or three more
weeks, I do expect something to just come out of nowhere and start doing really well
because those are the environments where people get sidetracked into experimenting with other
things.
So maybe it's not right now, but I would keep an eye out for developing narratives, I would
say.
It does feel as though the fear factor is still in stocks.
I don't know if you would agree with that, but you're starting to see, you've seen the
biggest reduction in equity allocation by fund managers for over a decade.
This was the fastest correction, I think we've seen it in like seven years, from all time
high down, or one of the fastest corrections in the last two decades at least.
I think COVID must have been quicker than that, so maybe I'm wrong on my stats there. But it does
feel as though this has caught people off guard. This whole Trump trade where you own big tech
alongside maybe energy stocks, Tesla, Trump media, all of that has been destroyed.
It's interesting to see that part of the narrative actually coming out of TradFi is that Bitcoin
has been outperforming.
Bitcoin is still one of the best performing assets since Trump got elected.
It's like it's Bitcoin and it's China stocks.
Yeah, we're down from 100K, like 110K, but it is interesting to see that it's still being seen as a pocket
of almost outperformance since Trump, or at least in that Trump basket of things that
were meant to do well.
I think that's a very interesting narrative that I think, and we spoke about this last
week, I think could actually, or two weeks ago, could persist even if stocks go a little
bit lower.
I think Bitcoin could continue to outperform,
let's say, stocks here and probably keep such its correlation with things like empty money supply
and gold. It still feels like stocks with the rise of China, particularly on the AI side,
all these new models, a lot of the announcements around self-driving cars, around
Deepsea, Baidu, some of the robotic stuff they've been announcing, is really challenging some of
the magnificent seven stocks. And that could be a bit of a medium term trend. I don't know,
but that could drag the stock market lower, even if global stocks stay relatively elevated and
gold keeps on pushing higher. So do you think we're in this
market where Bitcoin can go higher even if stocks go lower as well?
Yeah, I can see it. I think the upside of Bitcoin is obviously, if you're talking about
a massive risk on environment, I think the upside of Bitcoin, especially in this
massive risk on environment. I think the upside of Bitcoin, especially in this new regulatory
regime, is a lot higher than it is for equities. And so it comes to a point where it gets to a
level and some floor where someone is like, or a bunch of people are like,
cool, we're just going to accumulate Bitcoin here at these levels. Because when the policies
come into place, and if the US does ever start buying Bitcoin and all that
kind of stuff, it's going to go a lot, lot higher.
It seems like that level has maybe been found at least at the first iteration of it.
That is a very Bitcoin specific thing.
It's not an equity specific thing.
It's not even a risk asset thing.
It's just a Bitcoin thing.
There's probably a handful of people out there who are like, okay, I'm going to front run
the US and potentially other sovereign nations in buying Bitcoin and here's my line in the sand,
I'm going to deploy X amount of capital here. So it feels like that level has kind of been found.
It's very clear there's deep bids for Bitcoin once you get sub 83k. And that to me says, yeah, we maybe do see some outperformance of it because we've been
outperforming on days where stocks are red and Bitcoin has actually held up pretty well.
So I would attribute that to new Trump crypto policies and the potential of countries buying
Bitcoin and people wanting to front run that and deciding this is the
level to do it. Yeah, Arthur Hayes came out this week and said, who had been bearish all the way
down, actually had a good call for once, came out and said 77k thought actually was the bottom when we touched it then. And he'd been calling for 70 to 75k Bitcoin.
On a technical side, Bitcoin is hanging out right at its 200-day moving average.
So there's a lot of huge calls at the moment for like, oh, we're about to enter a bear market,
oh, we're not. Oh, we've got 12 months of everything going wrong, oh, we're not.
And as long as it as it stays around this
200-day moving average, I think people can get wrecked thinking it can go either side. My gut
is that Bitcoin probably will continue to outperform now, as we've spoken about on this,
in terms of dominance. I know there'll be pockets of outperformance, like you said,
but I feel as though this is a market where in
most scenarios, I still think Bitcoin has a pretty strong trend to it.
And like you said, there's a lot of people that just want to buy on a dip.
I was actually thinking today, what are the top five catalysts that it could possibly
be now, the 2025?
Because this week, there are rumors of zero tax on crypto in the US and I don't think that's
very plausible but it feels as though stablecoin regulation coming through, they've talked about
that potentially coming by the summer again so that kind of fits your narrative of something
strong there. RWA regulation, no, it'd be good to see more broad regulations there about putting
securitizing essentially or tokenizing assets, which are securities on blockchain.
Maybe you get another one of the big sovereign wealth funds buying a lot of crypto, maybe
like Saudi Arabia or one of the UAE states or Qatar coming in and buying a decent amount.
Maybe something out of China.
Maybe we get something about softening
of at least policy on the mainland towards China or just some form of government policy,
which is going to be supporting crypto. And then the final one was maybe not just a
micro strategy, but one of the big tech stocks decides they want to have some form of a crypto holding alongside Tesla, who
kind of is known to having some. But these things all feel a bit more, I wouldn't say unlikely,
but they just feel less certain when they'll happen. And they could never happen or they
could happen in like three years from now.
Do you know what I mean? So it does feel as though even though there is all these catalysts I think
will happen at one point or another, I do think we're kind of in a... Yeah, it will just get
dip buyers rather than like aggressive buying. I don't think anyone's out there aggressively buying.
I think they're like, well, if it goes lower, I'll be the bid. But I don't know if people are like, oh, this is going
back to 100K in the next couple of weeks, just because I just think that the fear is really there
in macro. Wherever I look in macro, everyone is freaking out about China or about Japanese bond yields.
I know Raoul breaks it down just in a purely empty money growth equation, which I think
is actually very easy.
It makes everything much calmer.
But it's just interesting to see that that's what's keeping a lid on stuff.
People are wary of something macro about to break. Yeah, it does. It does feel like that, doesn't it?
Does feel like the fear is more on the macro side of things. And I've seen talks of like recession
stuff now, etc. Recession, maybe, maybe, but I mean, I don't personally
don't see it. But I'm seeing people talk about that. Again, I
don't know if all of it is just Trump kitchen sinking stuff to
get things to where he wants to before they can just start
relieving pressure with cutting interest rates. I think the one
chart that kind of goes against all of the macro fears is the
US money supply chart M2, which continues to go higher and has historically been a very good leading indicator for Bitcoin.
for Bitcoin. And that's something that maybe is bucking the macro fears, I would say. Not
And that's something that maybe is like
that many people look at that chart. I guess a lot of crypto people do.
That's the most bullish chart in crypto. Braille shares it every show it gets on,
which is the leading indicators or the money supply with a three-month lag chart.
We haven't seen that correction of Bitcoin to that chart yet.
We saw the correction of Bitcoin to that chart to the downside, which maybe
had what like a one or two month lag.
But we haven't seen the correction to the upside.
And again, like I'm not the sort of person who just thinks, Oh, well,
because that chart's gone up again, Bitcoin is eventually going to correct
again, just because it always does.
I don't usually think that, but it does feel like we've had enough good news and enough of
a clear out and enough of a risk unwind, potentially lower leverage now for Bitcoin to just... I could
see it being up 10%, back up towards 90, 95k without like for, you know, for minimal moving equities,
I could definitely see that happening. And then that would that would kind of again, be in line
with that, with that M2 chart. So there's belief in that chart, I think. I think there is belief
in that chart. Yeah, it's just like, there is just a general belief. So people buy in the same way
that you're like, Oh, people are going to buy because they're expecting, you know,
sovereign institutions to buy. There is just a general belief that like, oh, we'll just follow
global liquidity because that just that makes the most sense because there's been correlation for
so long now. So if you want to be bullish, just I think Raoul did a Q&A actually during the week,
go listen to that. Where it just goes through all the major charts as they
always look at the ISM and the three-month lag to global liquidity. And it does feel as though
just you can just have faith in that. One thing that has also been up only in crypto has been
stablecoins. So we've hit 230 billion now, which was another all-time high in stablecoins.
We've hit 230 billion now, which was another all-time high in stablecoins.
They were up, I think, 15 to 20 billion already this year, but like year to date.
It's a figure that interestingly, maybe this goes against the whole narrative for original
blockchains or at least for Bitcoin. But are these L1s just now gonna become places to trade
or move stablecoins?
ETH was even touting it,
that as it's one of its main use cases this week.
And there's a lot of ETH maxis basically being like,
oh God, we've just become a way for people to move the dollar.
Do you think this is also becoming the age where some of those dreams
die away from Bitcoin that you'd have? Not sovereign, but you have independent currencies.
Is ETH just a way for people to transfer stablecoins, basically. Is that the real use case here or
are we giving up on some of the dreams I think of some of these L1s? No, I think the dream of
programmable money is still a real dream. We just have to find... Do that with stablecoins.
Yeah. There's a lot of questions about that at the moment.
Bitcoin's got this gold narrative and obviously we do a lot of DeFi stuff. We use the collateral of some of these assets quite a lot, but it's interesting that even the biggest blockchains
themselves are basically pointing to that being like their number one use case. There's people
saying that stablecoins could go up to like $1 trillion this year, like the amount of stable coins if RWA and stablecoin regulation gets passed.
And then you start to question like, well, is it just Bitcoin and stablecoins?
I don't think so. I think it's important to recognize that even though
ETH hasn't moved a lot, there's still a ton of activity that happens on Ethereum L1,
ton of activity that happens on Arbitrum in terms of DeFi.
There's still a lot of activity that happens on base.
I think the idea of activity
is separate to the idea of price appreciation,
if that makes sense. And you would sometimes think of activities going through the moon,
like the price of it will go up.
Um, sometimes, sometimes that does happen.
If you think about Solana, et cetera, but, um, there's a ton of, I guess,
like a lot of it is stable and stuff, but there's a ton of like DeFi, um,
NFTs still have like their place on Ethereum, then still relatively active ecosystem, even if it's not quite to the heights of 2021. So I don't think these dreams are necessarily dead,
but it does raise a big question as to what drives the price higher.
it does raise a big question as to what drives the price higher.
And that's a separate thing.
They become gas fees, but even for the L2s for ETH, there's been talk about maybe like
BASE could move to Sablecoins being the gas fee for an L2.
And then that's a dangerous narrative for some of this stuff.
I don't know.
It's not something that I believe in. I'm just seeing it.
And I can tell you that if in a year's time, we have Bitcoin worth, what, 2 to 3 trillion,
and stablecoins are worth a trillion, or bumping up against that, there's going to be a lot of
questions, I think, about what are we doing here with a lot of them? Or at least the idea that they are currencies and
not just gas tokens, I think might be called into question more and more over the next year,
particularly as you start to put other real assets on chain. If RWAs become big, there's going to be
questions about other coins as well. I don't know. I'm still a believer. I like
the ideas of our own native currencies, but I can see the foothills of this trend happening.
And I can tell you that's going to be the narrative that's going to be a strong one
in six months, who knows. So what with this price action, and if this continues for the next, I
don't know, like let's say continues for another three to six months, what are
you, uh, what are you doing?
Like, is there anything that you're looking at apart from the obvious boring
thing, which is just a DCA majors.
Um, is there anything that you're looking at?
Do you think could create some alpha here?
Um, is there anything you maybe have your eye
on but maybe haven't put risk on? Are you even bothering to look for that stuff or are you just
kind of taking a bit of a break from markets? Like what's the... I mean, I've got a lot going on.
No, I have, but I have been, you know, I was in JLP and then I shifted a lot of that more into Bitcoin.
I've actually been in my DGen stuff, I've been doing a lot of DeFi style farming and
some of that's actually been delta neutral.
Some of that's been like on things like Sonic, for example, you can earn like 300% delta
neutral doing some of these strategies.
That's not been a bad thing. You can get the airdrop and stuff. I've been doing some of that,
but because I had so much going on in personal, and then I went from defensive to a bit more
risk on but by Bitcoin and then just doing some DJ stuff but not like
meme coins. You know what I mean? Degen DeFi is what I've been basically paying attention to,
which I've tried to get you in a couple of times, but you've never really been a DeFi guy.
No, I think the problem I have with Degen DeFi, number one, I've never made money on it in the Number two, if you live somewhere where you pay income tax on crypto staking, that becomes
a very painful thing to do because if you have staking income, for example, you owe
tax on it at the time at which you get the interest.
So presumably, the staking income is in the native token.
So if it's worth 10 bucks and and you're getting it paid like every
single, in real time, every single second, you owe tax on the value of that coin at that time.
Now, unless you're instantly selling 50% of it each time you get it paid,
you're going to have to calculate some tax amount, and then you're going to have to owe
that amount later on. So I think people sometimes get tripped up here is like, you make, I don't know,
$500,000 worth of staking income based on the token price at the time at which you got the income.
And then the whole thing just goes down, which eventually all the DGN DeFi stuff eventually does. But you didn't sell your token in time. So you have this massive tax bill, but what you're trying,
massive income tax bill, but what you're trying to sell is worth a lot lower and you can't, in many places,
you can't offset your income tax with capital gains tax.
So it's a very risky game, I think, if you live somewhere.
If you don't sell the rewards, I agree with you.
That for you, it can be more difficult
if you don't sell the rewards.
But yeah, there's definitely some interesting stuff there,
like which I've been more paying attention to.
But I've definitely been setting myself up for a longer period here. I definitely did not nail the
exit from Trump into Melania. At least I went more defensive after Melania. But yeah, it feels like
we could be here for a while. There has been some DJ stuff going on,
so I don't know if you've been paying attention to. Money has definitely been leaving Solana.
That's kind of clear, but it's been the two blockchains which seem to be seeing the majority,
or maybe three. I would say BNB. Interestingly, like BNBNB, because I do a daily newsletter, go check it out,
mandaminutes.com, and all the runners at the moment, the daily runners, as we need to speak
in meme quotes, are all on BNB.
There seems to be a little bit of a season going on there.
That's been one asset since CZ got out of jail.
He's definitely been pushing it a little bit more and some things are doing there.
That's one that's held up.
BNB is basically flat to where it was in March.
So it's held up remarkably well and it's kind of held up the best over the last month or
It looks like on the fifth of November, again, it's also kind of
where it was right now. So it's even slightly even more than that. So that one's held up pretty well.
Tron as well, which is another one of these Asian-style blockchains, which has really been
used for countries under sanctions to move stablecoins.
But they've been building out a bit more of a degen aspect for them.
They partnered with Pumpfun for their new pumpfun launching their own decks.
So you're going to see Tron go on there.
And then I would say some of the degen stuff, so things like Sonic has seen a lot of activity,
that's gone above a billion, even 1.1 billion
TDL now. So those are the three I see a lot of activity on. I don't know if there's tons of money
to be made. Like what I just said, it's more like longer term strategies, or maybe you do catch the
BNB runner of the day. A lot of them seem to be related to the Binance team. Like every
single week there's a new coin which like CZBall or is linked back to the Binance team.
But they have this thing called Binance Alpha, which I'm sure you're aware of where they
like list new coins. A lot of those new coins over the last month or so have been BNB coins.
So there's been like a big shift to shift to Binance is actually being way more
aggressive on listing its own native coins. And you get a Binance listing, your coin kind of goes
to 200 million. It's kind of par for the course for most of these. So there has been like a,
yeah, that's been a trend I've seen. And I know some of the guys that we were in chats with who kind of do
trading in the trenches, they've largely moved over to BNB. I don't know, do you think that's
really worrying for Solana or do you think Solana still looks okay here at like 125ish?
I don't know if it's necessarily worrying for Solana. I do like Solana here at this level.
I think it's quite attractive.
Obviously, Pump Fund revenues are down a lot.
The AI sector is down a lot.
So the kind of the two big tail ones that had at the beginning of this year are significantly
weaker and it's quite clear to me that Binance obviously put some capital behind some of
these BNB tokens and stuff and trying to take this opportunity to bring the activity back to Binance Smart Chain. But
I think it's too premature to call the death of Solana. I think we've seen people do it.
Yeah, we've seen people do it time and time again. I do expect it to have a resurgence
in activity, I think. You'll probably see some
point this year where some of these are old. I think you've had a big meme coin crash in Seoul
and stuff is down 80, 90%. But I do think you'll have some sort of a bounce at some point in time
during this chop. Actually, I do think you'll have some sort of a meme season or an AI season
during this chart, which is likely still to be on Solana, I think.
Stig Brodersen So what's crazy is Solana, to put it in perspective,
is about to be flipped by USDC as a stablecoin. Its market cap is $64 billion. BNB is at 90 now,
Its market cap is 64 billion.
BNB is at 90 now.
So it's full 50% above it.
XRP is more than double the market cap of Solana right now.
So obviously, it's way too late to be like, oh, yeah, watch out.
But the one that really is interesting to me is that you're starting to see major blockchains, like I just said, get flipped by stablecoins. XRP is the third biggest crypto
again. Sorry, no. USDT is the third biggest crypto again at 143 billion. There's a world
where it goes Bitcoin, USDT, USDC. I don't think that's that crazy, genuinely.
I think it's something that we could see at the end of this year, which would be,
I think it would have really startled some people, I think.
This feels like you're now taking the path to becoming a Bitcoin maxi or an anti-everything
else.
I'm just saying I can see it happening.
I'm not actually a Bitcoin maxi, but there is the time to own Bitcoin, like I just said.
In these periods of it going sideways, if we start to see stablecoin regulation happen in the US, which seems very likely by the summer, and
then you start to see even RWA regulation happen.
Those assets aren't priced in ETH.
Those assets are priced in dollars, and you'll see more and more dollars come on chain.
I just think it's going to be an interesting narrative here. It's something that
I think is going to question a lot of crypto for a lot of people who came in and thought, right,
Bitcoin, and then we're going to have tons of other currencies, our own native currencies. Well,
what we're starting to see is if you include all stable coins, which is 230 billion, that just flipped ETH.
It just flipped ETH's market cap. And that's just something to pay attention to.
Yeah. But there's nothing you can... It's not a trade that can be expressed, is it, really?
Like how would you... Yeah, just own stablecoins.
I mean, some of the biggest M&A you're seeing right now is people buying
stablecoin companies because most of these don't pay us native yield, right?
By the, by the circle IPO.
They just clipped the coupon.
Some of them have in the past said they would do that, but you know, I don't know.
It's not, it's not saying that something I really have a strong view on how
to trade it. But other than I see it happening, and I can see where this will be in six months,
the only things that are up only right now are stablecoins. And I actually think that will
accelerate. I do think we could triple that figure after that stablecoin regulation comes in the US.
triple that figure after that stablecoin regulation comes in the US.
So maybe the crypto total market cap can go back up to like all time high.
Through stablecoin.
But it's through stablecoins.
And everyone will be like, oh, God, this is the worst possible way that that could have happened.
You've really ruined my Friday.
I'm just saying I've seen it like you'll hear about it in a few months.
Trust me on that.
But yeah, one thing I in that world, I do still think you can have like runners, like
meme coins, I can still think could have a period, right?
You might buy some
of those coins. I think what it really questions actually is the coins that are non-culture
related, the coins that are just meant to be coins that you would own and you buy stuff with,
which is a lot of the L1 coins, really, rather than the culture coins. That's what I'd be more
worried about, which is other than maybe their use case increases
with gas, like Solana has done a very good job of making sure that Sol is at the heart of everything,
right? So you can imagine a lot of the value still accrues back to that in terms of the validators.
So there's still value there, but the number one collateral for DeFi could
very quickly become stablecoins here. Maybe what we need is like a, we need a meme coin
of USDC or USDT. So it actually has some capsule. I know they have that in the past, but some
things so we can actually have some capsule appreciation otherwise. Yeah. So one thing that has happened
in terms of the other DGEN stuff is it's NFTs.
Have you seen this, this like resurgence kind of happened?
Yeah.
It happened in a few different ways
over the last week or so.
So we've had Sam Spratt,
who's probably one of the best known artists in the space
did a very, very successful drop,
raised I think two and a half million on the first drop,
and then the assets have all done like a two or three X
since they were released.
And he does like these gamified drops
with like almost like a competition
or a prize at the end of them.
In previous ones, it's been one of ones,
and his one of ones go for at times millions of dollars. So it's like, it's seen as like ones, and his one of ones go for, at times, millions
of dollars.
So it's seen as quite a fun way to do it.
And then just yesterday, we had Pudgy Penguins announce a Pengu NFT ETF, which will include
Pengu, their coin, but also the NFTs.
And I've just generally seen more activity from NFTs. You've seen
a bit of an ecosystem happening on abstract there, which is also linked to Pudgy Penguins.
You've seen some of the other collections start to rally back and definitely art as
well, taking a bit more center stage. Do you think this is this that will be the thing again?
Do you think that's what we're going to be playing around with the next six months to trade around?
Are we doing a RET ETF? Have you spoken to Luca?
Yeah, that could be interesting. I'm curious to see if it gets approved and
what the follow-on demand for it is. But it's a nice, it's an interesting way to,
and it's a smart way, especially for a brand
like Pudgey Penguins to open up investment
into what you're doing to the masses
who maybe don't want to touch crypto,
but if you don't have, if you have an IPO,
if you don't have public equity, if that makes sense.
And, you know, obviously like a meme coin
isn't any form of equity, but it does move on sentiment. And if Pudgy Penguins do really well, I'm sure the price
of Pudgy Penguins NFTs will go higher and the price of Pengu will go higher. So I think it's
a really smart thing to do to open up potential investment for people who are perhaps not crypto
native, but start to get familiar with the brand and want to express
a sentimental trade in it, I guess. NFTs coming back. We'll see. I'm still not convinced we will
ever see the mania we saw in 2021. I think you will continue to have pockets of performance. You
had obviously Sam Spratt stuff do really well.
And then you had something called the Good Vibes Club, I
think it was a new NFT mint that did really well after the mint
as well. So it's nice to see some activity and good price
action return there. But you know, specifically Sam's thing
like that's I feel like that's very unique to Sam. It doesn't
really matter if he was in a bull market or a bear market.
It still would have done really well.
And so it's hard to extrapolate that to the rest of the NFT market.
And I still don't think we'll ever see the same mania we saw in 2021, but you
may have these pockets of performance now and again, I don't know, maybe, maybe
if there's absolutely nothing going on and people start coming up with cool
creations again
and stuff we could see it and I think that feeling of like minting something that's unrevealed and
then finding out what you get post-reveal I think is a very novel feeling that won't ever really go
away so maybe there's a chance you know maybe there is but I think it will take a lot to
really it will take a few projects doing really well, going
crazy for people to want to jump onto the bandwagon again, I think.
Well, people are going to do something, you know, like what we tend to see in this sort
of market is...
They do have to do something.
I agree with that.
But everyone's still a DJ.
So and as much as I think, yeah, you know, you can do some DJ and DeFi stuff and it feels
as though meme coins, people,
at least on Solana, like people are too scared
to get back in the water right now.
You're seeing, I don't know how many times we can do like,
CZ bought this coin, it's gonna get listed on Binance.
Like, I don't know if that's like a fun meta for people,
like enough.
So I think that people will find something
that they wanna gamble on.
Do you know what I mean?
I do agree, like the gambling never stops. The gambling definitely never stops. And eventually
there's something that a handful of people make a lot of money on from gambling, which then brings
the masses back in. So I do expect something like that to happen, which is kind of what I was
alluding to at the beginning, talking about the chop know, the chop and, and it's almost like you want Bitcoin
to stay stable for gambling activity to start happening because then people feel like they want
to sell their Bitcoin to gamble the next day if it's not really moving. So I wouldn't be surprised
if that happens. If it's NFTs, I'm not really sure, but could be, you know, never say never, you know?
Yeah, I'm, as I look through the different stuff you know, never say never, you know? Yeah.
As I look through the different stuff that people are doing, that's the space where I
see people having the most fun.
Again, I see like in meme coin, you see like fart coins doing okay, but other than that,
it's tough out there.
And I think some people are doing stuff on these prediction markets a bit like Polymarket
and Myriad and Caoshi.
But I think maybe we see some cool entities.
The GameFi stuff as well has generally been destroyed during this period as well.
There's been a lot of criticism again for whole teams missing the bull market to release
products and we're going to be
another three years before a AAA game comes to crypto. So I don't know what else we're going to do.
Yeah, I think that's generally it for what we were going to see this week. It does feel as though
we could be doing this show for a while, where we're looking at smaller
stuff and Bitcoin's probably staying around 83k.
It does feel like that's the best, still has the best risk reward out there at the moment,
unless you're going to try and do some really like DJ and DeFi stuff like I was talking
about before.
Well, we did podcast every single day throughout 2023 when nothing happened for weeks and months.
It's almost like you'd rather prices go down so you have something to talk about.
But I literally have no doubt that something in the next two or three weeks, something's
going to come up, which everyone will be like, oh damn, why didn't I see that?
So I would encourage you.
Hopefully it's AI.
I do think AI has probably got one of the better shots of coming back
and coming back strong. I still believe that and that's the only
thing I've really been adding to on dips. I do think there's a lot of the bigger projects
that are still building and creating stuff. I think you will see new launches come out
in the next few weeks.
I just don't think the AI season and the AI rally we had November to January will be the only time it happens.
I don't think it's going to just go away.
So that's something I think is worth keeping track of, even if you
don't have risk in it, but that's been my altcoin bet outside of ages.
All right.
Well, should we have back on the arch public, guys?
I know you had a chat with you last week.
Seems like a good time to talk about what's been going on with Bitcoin, what's been going
on with the trades that you can put on, obviously, we're partnering them at the
moment.
And I don't think there could have really been a better time to partner with these guys.
Bitcoin basically staying exactly where it is and just going up and down and getting
to pick out trades.
Yeah, let's bring on Andrew and Tillman. Welcome back, guys.
There is clearly an alpha money moment from Mando moments ago, and he said, listen, I'm
looking at Far coin and it's doing pretty well. That's the money shot for the podcast,
right? I'm looking at Far coincoin and it's doing pretty well.
I'm like, man, this is why I listen to the show.
This is why I'm here.
Why I listen to the show?
Fartcoin is looking like a multi-cycle meme to me.
It's the Pepe of next cycle.
The Pepe of next cycle.
I like it.
Well, thanks for having us on, guys.
You're right about
these moments of, you know, boringness, will we be at 83 in six months? That may be the
case. I don't know. But ArchPublic, you know, we build, you know, we build products that
are here to take advantage of volatility. Bitcoin just overall over its life cycle has been 9 to 25
times more volatile than traditional markets. So again, in the past week, we've seen two buys weighed
down at the lows, 78 and just at 80. And then we had just an extraordinary execution at almost 87 at the top a few days ago.
And again, these are algorithmically automated trades, which you can't pull off on your own
unless you're lucky or you're not asleep or you're not at dinner.
This is all happening with your hands off.
And so true to Mando's point, when you're in these moments and it's not just number go up,
having a product that you can rely on to generate some level of alpha,
to generate some level of return is important.
The other point that Mando made that I think is probably prophetic,
are we at a point now based on the regulatory environment
where we end up with the top three tokens being Bitcoin, USDT, and USDC.
I would put money on that, to be honest.
I would as well.
Yeah, I would put money on that.
Tillman, you could talk to that a little bit more.
Well, I just think that the Bitcoin dominance number for me has been the key indicator of
this cycle.
I think this cycle is, especially on the Bitcoin front,
it's being driven by institutions
and not so much by retail.
I think retail's been bored with Bitcoin,
honestly, for quite some time now.
I think that's the point of having automated tools
is to cure your boredom,
but still get done what you need to get done.
You should never be a slave to your emotion,
whether it's exuberance or boredom, in terms of making decisions on a day-to-day basis.
I think when you see the volatility of Bitcoin enter into a real choppy range, some people
don't know how to trade that.
They push their money other places and they start to sell their Bitcoin to kind of get
those emotional highs that they're used to when Bitcoin's on these parabolic moves.
In my experience as a trader, those are the times where you refocus your energy on your
strategy and what you want over the next time period and you retool that into something
that's going to be executed hands off because
the emotional side of trading is really the enemy here. Bitcoin's chop is an opportunity,
just like Michael Saylor says all the time, it's a gift. It is the gift of Bitcoin, is the
volatility of it both up and down. And so having something that's sitting there waiting for that volatility and
executing on it is an opportunity that most people don't take advantage of, I guess,
in the Bitcoin space. And it would cure a lot of the boredom because there's a lot of money to be
made in CHOP, to be honest with you. If you know what you're doing, there's a tremendous opportunity
because when you look at how many times Bitcoin over the last six months has crossed $90,000,
for example, a lot.
And look at the variance off of that $90,000 price.
Spend plus or minus $18,000 on each side of it almost.
That's a lot of range, and that's a lot of movement in a tight period of time.
So take advantage of it.
Yeah, I agree. You feel like you're on the front foot with this sort of stuff,
rather than just like being reactive. Can we maybe go through what trades were done this week?
I saw you tweet it out that you've got some like calm days of a trade.
It would be good to maybe look at like what you
could have done. Yeah, yeah, let's take a look at it. If you look at the tweet that I put out,
there's a couple things to discuss. One, in that time period, over a nine day period, there was a
purchase at 78 and change, and there was a purchase almost right at 80. And then there was a small sale as it bumped up to 84 and
change. And then there was another sale that happened up at right around 87. So the commentary
there is this arbitrage strategy. It's a 2.25x long bias. So every time you're making a purchase at that 78 and 80 level
You're buying, you know nearly three times as much Bitcoin as you sell whenever there's a
Sell signal that goes through and you sell a little bit
So you're accumulating Bitcoin along the way at price levels that are beneficial to what you're trying to get accomplished
And then you're generating a little bit of cash yield
So beyond the levels of you know, 78 80 and then and then sales at 84 and 86
You know, we also put out a case study that you could find at our website archipublic.com
That case study shows you that if you're using our arbitrage strategy as well as our
Intelligent accumulation strategy which by the way our Bitcoin algo is not just some binary output
Normally does one thing you could be running two three four five strategies at the same time a truly institutional tool
But if you're using those both at the same time, this is a question we get every single time
we do a demo for folks.
Well, does this really beat buy and hold?
Like if I buy Bitcoin and hold it for four years,
I should have a lot more money.
Does it beat buy and hold?
So we put out case studies that show four year timeframes
where our arbitrage plus intelligent accumulation,
our outgo absolutely crushes buy and hold.
So you put in 100k four years ago, you'd have 185k now of buy and hold.
If you put it in 100k in our algorithms four years ago, you'd have nearly $300,000.
So it's 2x your return.
And by the way, it's a lot of fun along the way, right?
You're taking arbitrage stuff, you're generating cash yield,
you can take that cash and do whatever you want with it.
But if you play it the way that we've set it up,
you end up with significantly outperforming,
you know, buy and hold with the asset itself.
Yes, that's quite...
You go ahead.
The last three or four weeks, it's just incredible how perfect the environment is for it.
I have the arbitrage strategy on and it's just like, I've got these crazy prints of of buying Bitcoin in the 70s, like 80,
and subsequently selling it at like 85k, 87k.
And it's like, it would have been impossible for me
to humanly do that, I think.
So it is-
If I'm not mistaken, the 87k sale print,
sale print based on the time difference, you'd have been asleep.
based on the time difference, you'd have been asleep.
Yeah, exactly.
Yeah, exactly.
Right. And that's the value and the power of a tool like this is the stamina is way beyond the
stamina of a human. The ability to use zero motions way beyond the ability for a human to do that.
And again, then even if we move out of a volatility range
bound type of deal, there are other stock versions
of the Bitcoin algo which will significantly
benefit from that.
So if you're using arbitrage, which benefits from volatility,
and you're using intelligent accumulation,
that accumulation part is going to do extraordinary things
when there's a lack of volatility or when there's a sprint higher, right?
So you have the ability to work with our team and say, well, I want to get this, this and this accomplished with Bitcoin or Ethereum or Solana, by the way.
And I want to do it over a six month period or a three month period or a two year period.
Click, click, click, click. Your hands are off and you're just watching it with your phone.
And really seeing is believing we could spend all day talking about the nuances
of how automation gives you an advantage over when you're trading manually.
I don't know if you noticed this, Obi, but if you look at your charts, the,
um, the exits are always on green candles and the entries are always on red candles.
That's a very slight nuance that most people don't pick up on, but it's extremely hard
as a human being to manually be selling into the buying pressure of a green candle.
And conversely, it's very difficult to be buying into the downward pressure of a sell-off,
but that is where quick execution and taking advantage of
those turnarounds or those exhaustion points in the market.
If you want to do it on a shorter timeframe,
you can put it on a four-hour or six-hour or one-hour,
and you can measure the velocity of
those indicators and enter those positions on a much shorter timeframe, but you can measure the velocity of those indicators and enter those positions
on a much shorter timeframe,
but you can also do it on a daily monthly.
So you can customize at dangerous point
to not only the individual outcomes
and the timeframes that you want,
but to the market conditions
that are best presenting themselves at any given moment.
So if it's a real trending choppy market,
you can have the vast majority of your trading capital
operating in some sort of a trading arbitrage manner
inside of that trend.
If it starts to pivot into a bull run, then guess what?
You've accumulated during the arbitrage
all of the losing trades
that you're gonna essentially capitalize on
during that run,
but you're also gonna be able to then change your settings
to create bias for that bull run so that you're buying all the way up the ladder and creating a new rule
set and a new structure as it pertains to a buying schedule.
So what are the different strategies that you guys have?
You said like, is it multiple strategies that you can invest in or how does it work?
Yeah, so if you join, if you download the free product, you
can explore there's about four different stock strategies right
now that you can operate across three different symbols, BTC,
ETH and Solana, we'll be adding XRP here in the very short
future. And so if you take your allocation and divide it up to your individual needs and or desires,
there's an infinite number of strategies that you can deploy
based upon dividing up that capital.
So again, to Andrew's point,
let's say I have a deep desire to accumulate Bitcoin
and I have a set end date that I need to accumulate it by.
Well, I can set a schedule and I can dollar cost average in an intelligent way, not just blindly at a given
date and time, but when the market dips, buying through that schedule. But at the same time,
I can have a set schedule for a range. Let's say I want to put, I have a set number of dollars that
I'd like to place in Bitcoin
between 50 and 60,000, and I'm convinced it's going to go there.
Well, I can create an entire schedule of dozens of purchases within that range at different
dollar amounts and set it and forget it.
So that if I'm asleep one night and we see a nasty wick go into that range, I've capitalized
on something that I couldn't I've capitalized on something that, you know,
I couldn't otherwise have capitalized on.
So there's an infinite number of ways to set it up.
That's kind of the fun of it.
But if you download the free version
and start playing around with it
and use our videos and our manuals
to familiarize yourself with it,
it will definitely bring up a lot of questions.
Schedule a time to talk to us.
We've got a lot of great folks
that can jump on the line with you,
share a screen with you,
and show you how to work all of the feature sets
and all of the different ways to trade it differently.
To give you exactly the number,
if you just used our stock strategies
inside of the Bitcoin Elgo,
there's currently four stock strategies
where you just click a button,
that strategy is overlaid on top of your capital
and it runs.
There's arbitrage and then there's three versions
of intelligent accumulation
that have different parameters in them
and are acting in a different way
to accumulate Bitcoin for you.
Same with Ethereum, same with Solana.
And a reminder to everybody on this call and watching, you can get involved here for you. Same with Ethereum, same with Solana. And a reminder to everybody on this call
and watching, you can get involved here for free. It's 10k in annual transactions. So you can have
the Bitcoin algorithm, the Ethereum algorithm, the Solana algorithm, all for free. And we're also
running a pretty serious promotion right now where if you download our
Software our Bitcoin algorithm the free version if if you sign up with us and you follow
triarch publics X account
You're going to be in a drawing to get to industry passes to the Bitcoin
Conference this year in Vegas. So sign up for the free product,
follow our X handle at Triarch Public,
and we're gonna give away two free industry passes,
as well as you'll be invited to our VIP dinner
that we have with some folks and our customers there
in Vegas.
A pretty amazing giveaway here over the next couple of weeks.
Bitcoin conference in Vegas this year is going to be a fun, probably aggressive one.
I'll have to see if I can make it out for it. But you have any plans to go,
Mando, Bitcoin Vegas? I've looked at it. They reached out to me, actually.
So Bitcoin Vegas does sound pretty wild.
300,000 people apparently going to be there.
It's going to be nuts. They, Tilman and I are going to be speakers at the Bitcoin conference
this year. And I don't know, three days in Vegas is enough for me. I got a hell of that
point. I can't imagine being there for four or five. You just, you know, you're everything can changes, you know, you end
up in a time warp that you can't feel like you can get out of, you know, it's going to
be an exhausting conference, I can assure you. But I will say, based upon Trump speaking
last year at the conference,
I think there's a new precedence that's been set
in terms of the level of speakers
that will be on that stage.
I think we're gonna see a lot
of government officials up there.
I think it'll be a good time.
I think it'll be the first Bitcoin conference
where we have clear regulatory boundaries
and everybody's pretty confident that we've
got wind in our sails and should be a good time for sure.
Yeah, well, I agree. I think hopefully Bitcoin 100k there and then who knows how wild Vegas will be
in that period. All right, well, it was great to have you on again, guys. Thanks for taking 15 minutes. Obviously, go check them out. It's public. You can find them on X or on their website. And like I
said, our staff has been using the strategy to good effect. So you've got a great customer there
already. I think that's going to be it for us then this week. We will see you again next week for hopefully Bitcoin at 83.5k or above.
Yeah, thanks for tuning in.
Sorry I missed last week.
Thanks, guys.
Thanks, everyone. you
