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Robinhood Earnings | Humanoid Robots | Cybersecurity talk with Themes
Recorded: Feb. 10, 2026 Duration: 2:30:13Space Recording
Short Summary
Robinhood's upcoming earnings report is generating buzz in the crypto community, with expectations of growth in user engagement and potential partnerships. The report will shed light on the platform's performance in crypto trading, a key revenue driver, amidst ongoing trends in the market.
Full Transcription
What is up everybody?
How are you all doing? It's an interesting day in the stock market here a
little bit of sideways a little bit of green in some spots but um but yeah an interesting day
in the stock market here we do have some robin hood earnings coming up after the close and a
couple others so it should be a fun time here tesla's green microsoft to the green although
it's coming down a little bit red i know google had a dead offering that closed a couple other stuff going
on i appreciate you all for joining in shout out mikey b and a bunch of our other friends i see you
emoting a little bit down there let's send out an invite or two but um but yeah i appreciate
everyone for hanging out with us on this Spaces today.
Options Mike, how you doing, sir?
Good, Evan.
See you're back in the warmth.
You had enough already up here.
You've got to thicken your blood up, bud.
Yeah, it is way too cold down there.
It is much better up here.
Well, we have a market.
It's alive, kind of. i think it has a pulse today what are what are you seeing in this market it's going on you taking any trades yeah i took a bunch
of small trades today um you know i'm i'm holding two nvidia calls from yesterday and a couple i
bought a couple amd calls both out into march today for AMD for that gap there try to get into it today um I had you know today was one of those days
where you know it's not a big day a bunch of small little wins I had a small little win on
Tesla calls I had a small win on some Walmart and uh and you know and uh and on Microsoft and
overall the market here is kind of just wishy-washy today um it doesn't you know feel
bad we came back up you know two big days up and we're taking a kind of a day of rest here it's an
inside day inside yesterday scandal at this point you know if you're looking for a concern it's the
banks the banks were all strong and they got absolutely killed on on the headline which i'm
still not really quite sure why they got so killed on it but you know it is what it is but it's u.s broker stocks fall after antitrust uh alt trust i'm sorry alt truest launches ai powered
tax planning feature in hazel platform um i don't know why schwab's getting absolutely destroyed on
massive volume on that and we saw morgan stanley which owns e-trade a big drop you know but you
know this is just kind of this market.
It kind of heavily reacts to any kind of AI story right now
and just tends to pull things down with it.
So today they did not rotate back into the safety names.
It's been just kind of a quiet day.
We're just off the lows on the SPY and the Qs.
I try not to read too much into days like today, Evan.
It's just a quiet inside day.
Tomorrow morning we're going to get non-farm payroll, which was delayed from last Friday.
Robinhood earnings tonight should be interesting.
You've got Shopify tomorrow morning.
Yeah, just trying to kind of go with it and just say, okay, don't get yourself in trouble.
It took a couple of small wins.
Have a little bit of risk on and go from there.
You got any thought on any of these earnings coming up today after the close going forward?
I really want to see what HUD has to say tonight.
You know, HUD, they've been well off the highs now.
They've come in quite a bit.
And, you know, they've been tied to that crypto down move and that crypto trade.
So, you know, obviously crypto revenue is probably going to be down based, you know,
trades revenue from that down here.
What they say about trading in general, is retail still aggressively trading or is, you
know, the numbers dropping off the new accounts?
I think that could be big.
They could announce something with the Trump plans, right?
Could be announced.
I mean, they were thought to be somebody that was in the potentially able to get a size of the chunk of that business uh app reports tomorrow night
that one's going to be interesting after they've been beaten up and caught up in this whole
software move down even though there's not nothing to do with them
uh ford on my own so i'm very interested to hear what board has to say how sales are going and see
if this one can finally get going and yeah yeah, you know, shop tomorrow, Unity, you know, the Unity software space has been killed, especially the gaming space ever since Google came out with Genie, their AI programming game program development tool.
And so I really want to see what these guys have to say because I don't think they're going away. I think the market's overreacting, which it tends to do, and just waiting
toward to find a bottom out or get to a place where I'm willing to start owning some of this.
Appreciate you, Mike.
Definitely feel free to jump back into the conversation.
Will do.
What's up, Hamid? How are you doing, sir?
How are you, Evan?
I am doing well. I am doing well.
It's obviously a big day.
We have Robinhood earnings coming up after the close.
So good times, exciting times.
The large company, a lot of people are watching.
But there's a couple other stuff going on in this market.
Google bond sale, a couple other stuff going on.
I'm curious what's catching your eye today.
And then we'll talk about Robinhood earnings.
Yeah, so definitely Robinhood earnings.
And then Rivian has allowed for their reviewers
of the R2 product to publish their reviews
of the R2 mass market vehicle.
So that has been very positive for Rivian.
And it's kind of exciting.
The R2 seems to be a pretty exciting vehicle for them.
So that was pretty cool.
But yeah, my interest is going to be mostly on Robinhood after close today.
after close today.
We'll see what happens.
We'll see what happens.
What will you be watching on the numbers today after close?
I fully expect them to meet their expectations for Q4.
Q4. And then despite the crypto sort of like price prices having crashed over the past few months,
I expect them to guide pretty well for Q1, meaning I expect, you know, Q1 to be another
sort of good quarter. And I think what that should do is make a lot of people realize that Robinhood should not be as connected to Bitcoin as the market seems to think it is.
Only about 20% of their revenues comes from crypto trading.
So it's surprising to me that Robinhood moves up and down the way it does with crypto. And then the other thing I want to know is when they're launching their banking product
and how's the sort of credit card rollout going?
When do they expect to sort of accelerate that even further?
And then getting sort of like updates on the other like nine or 10 products that Robinhood
has, each of which uh pretty significant revenues as
well so getting sort of like the whole rundown of robin hood's business and their growth rate
and everything is is what i'm looking forward to is there anything else you're watching uh besides
robin hood there are a bunch of other earnings, but I looked on earnings hub.
A couple other interesting ones.
Let me pull it back up in front of me.
I was looking earlier.
Cloudflare, Alab, Lyft.
I know Lyft was one that was being watched, Upstart, Ford, etc.
Yeah, it'll be interesting to see.
I'm not invested in any of the others,
but definitely it'll be interesting to see what Cloudflare reports,
what Lyft reports.
I'm curious to know how Lyft is doing relative to Uber, but both of their strategies on the
autonomous thing is flawed, in my opinion.
Spotify kicking some ass this morning was good to see.
Same with Ferrari.
Both of those are up pretty big today, so that was fun for reports that happened this morning was was good to see same with ferrari both of those are up pretty big today so
uh that was fun for uh reports that happened this morning
very nice oh i'm also seeing me have zillow reporting earnings after the post so that's a
little bit interesting i don't know. The home builders,
who knows? I also saw, by the way, speaking of meta, a name that we talk about here a little bit, Mark Zuckerberg bought a house in South Florida. I don't know if you saw this, but
between $150 to $200 million is what it was estimated to be purchased for. Zuckerberg and
other billionaires leaving California is a little bit of a story that they got going on right now.
leaving California's a little bit of a story that they got going on right now.
I did see that.
I think that's just such a huge mistake on California's part
to even suggest the type of taxations that they're suggesting.
Taxes are already extremely high in California.
So just from the tax savings alone,
a $150 million house purchase would be less than the tax savings by itself for somebody like Zuckerberg, who, you know, if he sells a few billion dollars worth of shares, he'd have this ginormous tax bill where if, you know, if he if you just apply this or Florida tax bill to to that as opposed to the California tax bill,
it'll save them over $100, $200 million.
So it's really unfortunate that California is not realizing that they don't have these people trapped.
It's not like people don't have the freedom to move about.
So, yeah, it's unfortunate in my opinion.
I will tell you what California has been working on is they've been working on an aggressive plan to try and get prorated taxation on people that spend part of their year here, which is crazy.
I think that's already in effect, if I'm not mistaken.
In effect, I remember Elon talking about something along those lines where every day he spends in
California costs him something like $10 or $20 million in taxes. That's correct. But that's not
how it used to be. It used to be if you were 51 percent
of the time out of the state you weren't considered a resident for state i'm in california and they've
just over the last five ten years as their policies have pushed wealthier people out and
they've lost tax revenue they're like and now it's to the point where like they're like okay you spend
so much time in florida who's your doctor? What organizations? They're really getting into the details
here because they know that they're losing a big
tax base.
Soon they're going to be going on like,
oh, are you Zooming with people
in California? You need to pay taxes.
No, soon
what they're going to be doing is
going after people like us because
they're losing
the big earners, right? And they're just
going to continue to hollow out the upper middle class in various ways. And they don't just do it
taxes. They do it in fees. They do it whether it's your car registration or there's so many
different ways they ding you out here. I mean, our gas prices are always way higher than the rest of
the country because we have to have certain formulations.
Valero just spent $1.1 billion to break their contract in California
so that they could leave, right?
I mean, it's bad.
It's bad.
This is what happens when you get a super majority
of either side in the state senate.
All right, all right.
Did you see the funny thing about the Super Bowl
is that Matt Stafford is going to owe more in taxes
than he made for the game?
Yep.
Because of the athletic tax.
Every day you spend there, you owe a piece of the taxes for that.
And because they were there for eight days for the Super Bowl, not Matt Stafford, Sam Darnold, I was like laughing.
I'm like, boy, that kind of sucks.
You spend eight days there for the Super Bowl and you owe your whole entire money.
You get for the $170, 170 000 you get back to the state so this this seems like you know funny and
theoretical but wait until they try to put a transaction tax on people that trade or uh buy
and sell equities in california you don't think they can do that like if they can do that from a
if they can do a wealth tax why couldn't they do that from a, if they can do a wealth tax, why couldn't they do that? Yeah, I think desperation
is going to set in at some point. They're going to try different things and then they're going
to get voted out. I mean, those kinds of pendulum swings do happen from time to time and we'll be
going the other direction at some point. I mean, they are still on the upward swing to the left. This was a – California was a solid Republican state for most of my life, right?
It's only been like the last 20, 25 years that it started to swing, not just left but progressive left.
And I'll tell you another inside baseball thing here.
A lot of conservatives like myself don't like Gavin Newsom.
He's actually been the bulwark against even crazier progressive punitive legislation getting through because he has vetoed a lot of this stuff because he harbors national aspirations.
He knows that if he runs for president, he's got to be able to tell people in Alabama and Idaho, whatever, that, hey, I held back.
Alabama and Idaho, whatever, that, hey, I held back. But if he's out and if we get someone that's
even more left of him, they're just going to unleash a torrent of progressive legislation,
fiscal irresponsibility, because the state Senate is way more left and progressive than
Gavin. I'm sorry to be on a rant, but I'm born and raised here in this state and I hate seeing
what's happened. I hate seeing the flight of capital. I hate seeing the flight of, uh, smart people.
Um, we've got great weather, but people will move eventually if they can't, you know, keep more of
what they earn. I do see that we have a monitor down below Montev I would love to get you up here get
your thoughts in on this conversation here some more thoughts around the earning season as well
always have some good insights there and uh I'm looking down in that spaces chat down below right
now it is a purple two in the bottom right of your screen if you guys have any thoughts questions
anything like that feel free to uh to jump into the mix and I can throw them around up here but
I do appreciate everyone for joining in and hanging out with us today.
StockSniper, do we have you?
Yes, yes, sir.
Do you hear me all right?
Sound pretty horrible, actually.
Okay.
You sound like you're in a fishbowl.
I'm currently in a car.
Yeah, yeah, no worries.
Brian, you watch any of these earnings coming up after the close today
no i don't think anyone who's coming up after the close uh we have robin hood we have cloudflare
we have arista network nope alab astera labs sorry lyft upstart ford leu etc no i don't have
any of those names i i was interested in osc earnings today. That is a core position that I've been building for a while. I'm not real happy with the price action, but better than being down. And then I'm looking forward to Bros on Thursday because that's another stock today. These aren't trading positions. These are more like positions I've been trying to build
over time so not really concerned about anything uh today but I am looking forward to hopefully
bros hits it out of the park Thursday yeah that's fair right that is fair that's fair
it's a good take It's a good take. It's a good take.
Were there any news stories that anyone saw today?
I really honestly saw like no news today.
That was interesting.
We had retail sales come in below expectations this morning.
Came in at plus 0.0% month over month.
Below expectations of plus 0.4% month over month.
That was one of the stories I thought was a little
interesting. Google also announced today that it has completed its $20 billion bond sale,
and they also announced another $10 billion bond sale in Europe as well, $30 billion. I know that
stock was getting hit a little bit harder. I think just going back to the technicals,
I think today is a perfect day. Today is doing exactly what we'd hope the market to do after two days straight up. We're just kind of consolidating here at a high level. I think the real question is going to be, if we get a pullback on the Qs, how far will that pullback be?
I think a lot of people have been saying, okay, the Qs have to get in gear at some point.
For this rally to continue, and when I say rally, I mean Dow at all-time highs and IWM within spinning distance, same with SPX.
For those really to keep going, at some point, the Qs have to get involved.
Today's a decent consolidation day on all the indexes.
Maybe the Dow's a little bit of a reversal bar happening, but I think
it's going to be really, I think it's going to be an important week. Like if the queues don't
pull back too much and then they continue to extend the rally that we started last week,
I think a lot of people are going to jump on board. You know, there is a mindset that, hey,
all the big earnings are out in big cap tech. And if that's as far as the bears could drive the market down or drive the queues down, then maybe we're clear to go higher. But
I would say next couple of days are going to be important for the queues. I'd be curious,
Mike, what you think about that. Yeah, I mean, I think, I don't know. I kind of feel like this
market's just kind of stuck in this kind of sideways action.
There's nothing really wrong here. It's the same pattern.
We talked about this yesterday. It just continues to play out here where we go up and make a new all time high and then instantly pull back.
And we've had now what, five, three percent plus pullbacks here in the last three months, which is just tremendous chop.
So I don't think there's anything that's really out there that at this point that is just really important for anything
i think it's just a matter of when this market wants to break free of this mess and get going
and it just doesn't want to go right now and you know today enough like i think you put it well
an inside day of chop after two nice big days in a row here uh the banks are the only thing that
are concerning me that drop today has me slightly concerned here with what's going on out there um and not quite sure why we got that big
down move off that headline but other than that the market does feel you know okay to me here um
nice to see some names trying to bounce but the mag 7 are you know this market is going to struggle
until the mag 7 wake up because they're such a big part of this market at this point 34 of the s p
500 when it weighs that much on it doesn't matter how good the part of this market at this point. 34% of the S&P 500,
when it weighs that much on it, doesn't matter how good the rest of the market's doing. It's
just not going to be able to go anywhere. Yeah, but wouldn't you think, I hear what
you're saying, and wouldn't you think though that earnings are all out and we had that dip
and now we rally for two days. I mean,
it feels like any news that would have taken those names lower has already come out. So
not saying that necessarily is bullish, but it feels like we made the reaction post earnings.
I guess that's what I'm saying. It feels like it's out of the way. So now it clears the deck
for us to go higher. I feel like we did this last quarter too, until we got Nditya's earnings.
So I don't feel like this is really any different than we had you know at the end of last quarter remember
the big seven came out and the market was washy-washy and then it wasn't until nvidia
reported that you know everybody's like nvidia can save the market i don't know i just i just
i feel this market's just any it's not in a hurry to go anywhere it doesn't want to break down it
doesn't want to break to the upside and so you know for my long-term account again i keep saying this i don't care right yeah
you understand like i'm not selling anything there i have i covered my cr uh my amazon on friday with
some sold calls against it but you know i'm looking to add on these pullbacks day trading at this
point i'm really kind of uh taking that just looking for that one trade a day and today i
didn't really find
it i found a bunch of little trades that made money small money you know not nothing huge but
you know adds up and i'm in a little bit of risk on nvidia and amd calls into march because i like
the setups and if you know we start to drop i'll blow out of it but you know we're above the eight
day we haven't gone anywhere and you know under the covers the market still feels fine. Market breadth overall is really good
across the board still. Hard to get very bearish when it's like that. And as frustrating as it is
in the short term to have the choppy days, that is what will create the base that hopefully we
eventually do break out from. And then we're in a better situation for swing trades and things like that. Correct. And I think the problem is, it's just like, it's, you know, I've always
said that Scott was, I think I've learned this from Scott years ago, but you know, ranges are
designed to wear both sides out. And that's what you've had here. You've had a long term range.
You know, every time it looks like we're going to break down, like last Thursday, we gap up,
trap everybody short. Every time it looks like we're going to break out, we turn around, we come right back down,
and we knock people out of their short-term positions thinking we're going to get that move.
And the only momentum you get to the up or down right now in this market is when you're coming off of a low or a high.
And it's two or three days, and then it's gone.
We're not getting breakouts or breakdowns.
And you just have to realize that right now. Yeah. And even though this saying was made for bear markets, Brian Shannon always says,
if they can't scare you out, they'll wear you out. And I think what's happened is in the last
five, 10 years is our patience has gotten much shorter. And so the wear you out can happen in
a choppy market like this, or even a slightly down market, whereas maybe in other times people are more patient.
Everyone wants something to happen today, me included.
It's bad enough I'm ADHD to start, right?
But when you get these sort of markets that are faster, your timeframe compresses.
So I have to do the same thing where I'm like, oh, this is so frustrating.
But you go like, just be patient.
It's also easy from a trading perspective when it's faster because once you've got a profit and you can put your stock in the money and let it run, you feel better.
It's when you get into something and it immediately drops and you see it all the time and you sit there and you look, what's my conviction level?
Because you get in and it fills you and it immediately drops the stock down a little bit.
And then you sit there whether your stock
Or options you're like, what's my conviction level?
You know, yeah, yeah, the bit like the best days for me are always ones were like I'm doing something in the morning
I'm setting alerts and then you know out here on the West Coast maybe from 830 to 1130. I'm doing other stuff
I'm not paying attention the market, but I keep hearing my alerts go off because that means I'm hitting another level. And those are those trending days where
you just keep going and go, we're not in that market right now. And I want to be in that market,
but we're just not there yet. I'm with you. I want to see that market too.
Can I, I want to shift the topic back up to the the debt offering that google is having i mean if
i can get your take on that one uh it's something that's common theme going on it seems like there's
a lot of companies reaching into that debt market right now ai is obviously a big theme of it i know
we've talked about like off balance sheet stuff as well have you had a chance to look into google at all on this i haven't um give me the high level i do have some opinions on it uh but give me the high
level of what they're doing and and i'll give you my opinion honestly there was some interesting
stuff about them doing a hundred year debt offering tranche this is the first one that's
been done for a tech in a while but really just raising $30 billion so far, funds, basic AI, all that stuff like that,
hitting a debt market.
I mean, the way I look at it is that
it does seem to make sense to do that,
especially because you have the cash flows to support it.
You are sort of making these investments
in any given year that have a minimum of six years
or longer lifespan. So, you know, it'd be similar to sort of like buying a car on payment, even if
you have the cash to pay it out of pocket, right? Like it does make sense because keeping the cash in your bank account gives you flexibility to do other things with that money if the opportunity arises.
You want to buy another company, you can buy cash.
You don't have to go raise money at that point in time for it.
So these debt offerings are not like any kind of red flag from my perspective.
It makes financial sense to do it.
Do you think it's something we'll see
across a lot more of these companies?
For sure, we've already been seeing it.
And they were doing it even,
especially like when interest rates
were ridiculously low, close to 0%.
I mean, at that point in time, it was kind of like free money.
It made absolute sense to do it.
But even at like 4% interest or whatever that these companies can get on their debt,
or pay on their debt rather, it's still extremely cheap when they have growth rates of 15% to 20% and then some.
It makes sense to not be cash strapped and fuel that growth.
And then if, for example, something bad happens and growth stops or cash becomes more constrained,
they don't have to worry about it at that point in time
when it would be very expensive to try to go raise debt they already have the cash in the
bank and they don't need to worry about it they can sort of like write it out
the the way to think about it is that debt is most expensive when you need it the most.
So it makes sense to have debt when you don't need it, because when you need it the most,
that's when you either can't get it or it's extremely expensive. So it's sort of counterintuitive.
Why would these companies that are like on such
solid footing go raise a bunch of debt if they were truly on such solid footing? Well,
the reason is because they're being fiscally and financially responsible by making sure that if
there is some kind of a downturn, if shit hits the fan for some geopolitical reasons
or whatever the case might be, they're not in trouble financially at that moment in time
because they've been investing so heavily in AI infrastructure build-outs and things
that might take multiple years to pay back.
So this gives them that safety and security.
I mean, it's almost, in a sense a hedging, right?
If rates are, let's say rates are low and you say, hey, let's borrow some money while
they're low, then you're locked in, right?
You know what your cost for debt is.
And if rates go up, you don't have to worry about it.
So there's somewhat of a hedging aspect to it as well.
Yeah, in a way, you can think of it that way, for sure. It's, you know,
they're not hedging, obviously, against the revenues or anything like that. They, they
recognize that revenues, you know, if something were to happen, again, you could have, like,
right now, we're, we're having a tailwind because of the dollar going down in value.
But you could easily have the reverse happen and get a headwind.
So there's all kinds of things that could happen that are kind of out of your control.
is a small price to pay for the peace of mind that they can have from a financial security standpoint.
Stock Talk, do we have you here?
You do. It's a busy earnings day for you we got leu and robin hood
yes we do and uh i mean it's been busy earnings it's gonna be busy earnings for me i guess until
really for the rest of the month no actually i should be done with most things
by the end of this week and then then I have a couple in early March.
But yeah, I mean, most of mine are out of the way already.
The big ones, Amcor, ENS, VIV, THR, Synaptics.
A lot of mine are out of the way already.
So yeah, I mean, I have Robin Hood today.
Robin Hood's a pretty small waiting for me.
Robinhood's a pretty small weighting for me.
But yeah, that is today.
But yeah, that is today.
And then I have LEU today, which is not a particularly small weighting,
but also not a stock that is an earnings-driven name.
So I'm not really overtly concerned about them showing progress on their earnings.
I mean, it's the only DOE- doe certified and richer in the entire country so
that's really the thesis with leu and always has been but how obviously have a nice cushion there
i mean my most recent entry was uh in may at 96 i haven't had it anymore since then so i have a big
cushion to operate with there but um that's always been a fan favorite stock of mine for for a long
time and they do report today yes yes yes sorry i didn't know if you were done or just
uh taking a no okay so a lot of those ones are reporting early after the close
we'll talk about those in a little bit before we uh go around the conversation
any analyst reports today that
were interesting any news stories anything that stood out to you um i did not see anything so far
this week on the analyst side that was like jumping off the page i mean i did see some nice
commentary on some shipbuilding stuff that i'm interested but that's pretty niche i mean roth
started orion marine group this morning orn at overweight i
don't own orion but it was one of the names that i researched when i was doing my shipbuilding work
but i do own gldd great lakes dredging dock which is the other dredging player in the united states
the largest dredging contractor in the country and i do own that stock and that stock's been
acting well that stock's pushing through 1620s today. My contract's on that.
I have the 12.5 calls for March.
Those are up about 150%.
I'll be exercising a lot of those and then selling probably a third of them when March 20th rolls around.
But that stock's been acting really well.
So, yeah, I read that report on Orion Marine Group, but I don't think it's going to be particularly interesting for most of the audience.
But they're just talking about U.S. Navy defense programs expanding to the tune of $7 billion over the next two years for port infrastructure, refurbishment, expansion of waterways.
It's not really a tremendously exciting business, but I find it interesting because I think it's a pretty straightforward um theme to trade if you will there's really only two stocks on the market that are pure
plays on that which are gldd and rn so uh both those stocks been acting well but um
yeah that's the only really thing i've noticed this week on on the sell side i haven't been
reading as much sell side research recently because again you know as stocks
go up more and more the sell side research becomes more and more confirmation bias-y if you will
you know where people are just trying to defend their price targets and you know when a stock
goes down they're you know making fundamentally related excuses so the south side research for
the last couple of months in my, has just been pretty bad overall.
So yeah, I haven't hung my hat on that
as much as I did early last year.
Early last year, I thought there was
a tremendous amount of good research
coming out of banks like Morgan Stanley,
Bank of America, Needham,
on the semiconductor industry early last year.
You know, I mean, Morgan Stanley called out the memory theme with Micron,
Sandisk and Western Digital in like January of last year.
So they were really ahead of the curve on that.
And there was some good research around advanced packaging as well.
That was out in February of last year that ended up leading me to buy Amcor
in the middle slash late of last year, which ended up being a great idea.
So yeah, I mean, it just depends.
It depends on the kind of market you're in.
To me, that dictates the quality of Southside research a lot.
If you're in a market that's like
trying to figure out its direction
between momentum and value,
which is where I think we are right now,
Southside research becomes limitedly useful because a lot of the opinions from the street are informed by the market conditions. direction between momentum and value, which is where I think we are right now, sell side research
becomes limitedly useful because a lot of the opinions from the street are informed by the
market conditions. And so when you have a market that's sort of indecisive, like we have it over
the last two weeks, it's difficult to get grounded sell side opinions that have like really, really
good flow of logic, which is like what I like to read. I don't want, when I read a sell side
report and it feels like the guy is like defending a stock because it has to, I hate
that kind of research. And that's what a lot of the sell side has been so far this year. So I
haven't been tremendously impressed with any of it. I haven't taken any trades off of sell side
research at all. The only report that's come out on any of my names, I think was the JP Morgan
upgrade on GLDD, but that was a week and a half after I bought it not before so um yeah I haven't I haven't been guiding much of my activity this year on sell
side research at all yeah so I feel like last year this sorry for the pause i feel like this time last year we're
talking a lot about these analyst reports and it's interesting that it just hasn't been as part of the
the conversation here i also went back a lot of undiscovered things back then you know there were
a lot of like is this what just a different later stage of the bull cycle looks like yeah later
stage of the bull cycle but also like i don't think there are many undiscovered trades within the fold of AI at this point.
Like, I really don't.
There's probably some sleeper beneficiaries that are going to pop up, but I think most of the big winners have been, like, identified.
And most of those stocks have gone up a lot.
Now, there's, like, some picks and shovels and supply chain guys that I think you could probably still catch a double on. But there aren't a lot of cheap stocks anymore.
You know, I buy Amcor.
It was trading at like a 12p in one-time sales, right?
And now the stock has doubled.
So the valuation has doubled, right?
Revenues haven't gone up enough to prevent that.
So it's getting harder and harder, in my view, to find stocks that are in the AI trade specifically,
not in general. In general, there's a lot of stocks,
but in the AI trade specifically,
it's getting harder and harder to find stocks that are A, cheap, B,
directly relevant to the theme and C, have nice charts,
which I need all three of those things to buy a stock. I cannot, like,
I cannot bring myself to conviction by a stock if the charge sucks or if it's
extended or if the valuation is extended
or if the tie into the theme is like a long shot. Like if any one of those three happens,
it really injures my conviction. So I have to have all three of those things. That's when,
you know, I buy stocks. So it's getting hard to find names like that.
I have five names currently on my short list that I do think fit that,
but they're not at the right points technically for me to buy them.
They're extended in my view.
So I just try to stay disciplined in those moments.
I mean, I have enough long exposure, right?
I mean, I have 17 positions long, so I'm not like underexposed to the market.
So it's not like an issue where I
feel like I like pick up exposure no matter what you know at any cost I'm in
a flexible position where I have great performance year-to-date and I have
stocks that I like and understand and so I'm not in a rush to add new stuff but I
do have a short list of five names that I do like that I do think fit all those
boxes I'm just
waiting for the right entry so that's kind of where i'm at i did see larry joined us up here
mr larry how you doing sir what's up i appreciate you joining us up here uh i'm curious so i like
to start the the question, open-ended.
The first question to be open-ended.
I'm curious on what you're watching in this market, what's standing out to you.
Obviously, we have a couple earnings coming up after the close today.
Not as many news stories, but there is some stuff going on, a lot of geopolitical stuff,
other things talking to the world.
I know you heard some of the stuff there.
But you have any thoughts blazing your mind you want to start the conversation with?
Big thing to me right now is housing. Watching what underneath the surface,
what housing stocks are doing. They're up again pretty big today. They've been forming
on a shorter time frame. So if you look like a daily chart, they've been forming a bottoming
formation. And then zooming out, you can see
they've kind of had this like head and shoulders, spooky looking top that's failed and they're kind
of resolving to the upside. So I think the breadth you're seeing in the market and the
cyclicality of housing is huge. You really kind of dig under the surface. It's really only software.
It's really only software when you look at large cap stocks that struggle. If you really kind of dig under the surface, it's really only software. It's really only software when you look at large cap stocks that struggle.
If you literally just strip software from the equation, everything looks great, which is silly to do, right?
Because I think it's a silly practice.
But it's really there's two trades.
It's not.
So it's not really concentrated software and then everything else which is up so it's to me
it's just odd how simple of a market it is from that perspective you look at any chart it looks
good as long as it's not a software chart so i think i think that theme can continue uh but with
that being said if you are someone who has a very long time frame and someone who knows how to manage risk, I wrote something on Sunday saying I just added some exposure to IGV against the 200-week moving average, but also gives you a slide entry where you can then manage risk
against $80 or last week's low in software. So those are kind of the two things I'm focused on
this week is continuing to see housing improve and then just seeing if software can kind of see
any type of formalized follow through. But other than that, I think the other thing I just want to mention on
the call is you have to understand everyone says it outside of the financial world, but they don't
say it in the financial world. Follow the money. Follow where people make their money. Most people
make their money from the market, not in the market. So a
lot of people are going to confuse you that they're going to post 600 charts and 600 trades
because that's how they make money. They make money selling you 600 trades. Why would they
only sell you 300 when they can sell you 600? It's two trades, like emerging markets and materials
and industrials and financial. it's all the same trade.
I just posted a chart.
You can look at VLUE versus EEM.
It's the same trade.
It's just fun to be like, what if U.S. loses?
Shut up.
It's the same trade, right?
It's just emerging markets is underweight software stocks.
Value, U.S. value stocks are underweight software stocks.
If you actually look at the U.S. value ETF, VLUE for iShares, it's actually 37% tech.
Why?
Because everything else in tech is doing just fine outside of software.
So I think when you have just this one area, this myopic area that's struggling with the
market, I don't think we have to
overcomplicate that other than people who need to sell shit to overcomplicate it. Everything else
looks great. And there's 200 different ways to measure breadth. You can use advanced decline
line. You can use percent above a moving average. You can use bullish percent index. It all looks
great. So I think if you're exposed to those other areas of the market,
there might be some mean reversion that occurs because they're pretty extended. And then there
might be some time where software kind of improves. So maybe you feed the ducks a little bit and just
play that mean reversion. When it happens, I don't know. I just think you had really clean risk
in IGV playing it earlier. Will it fail? Sure. And then you lose, what, 3% to 5% in that trade.
So honestly, I think it's a very simple market outside of the fact that the software narrative
is just fueling a lot of stuff that I don't see any other risk in the market. I just think
you look at consumer discretionary versus staples. That's another story that I think is happening.
When do stocks tend to rebound the best?
When they're down the most.
So there was a strong mean reversion in staples.
If it continues and they continue to break out and you continue to see that resilience,
I think it becomes a different story.
But overall, I think the market looks really healthy.
I don't think that there's a reason to kind of pre-plan getting out of the market to any degree at this
moment. I'm not seeing anything that's credit spreads look fine. Obviously, breath is great.
There's a little bit of a momentum divergence, but momentum divergence is when do they happen?
Right. Think about what people are posting. When does a momentum divergence happen?
posting. When does a momentum divergence happen? In a consolidation pattern. It's just literally
the math of it because, right, you ramp up during the trend, then you consolidate sideways. Momentum
can't break out if you're consolidating. What's the underlying trend? Up. So just, I feel like
I'm getting more annoyed with technicians that are just like using charts to deceive people today than I am with anything else. I think the market
looks great. I would ignore momentum divergences in a consolidation until they break out of the
consolidation, which what's the signal? The signal is then breaking down out of the consolidation.
So did the divergence matter in the first place? No. So there's my mini rant for the day. Just
ignore people that are making it more complicated than it is. Two trades, up and software.
I agree with that completely. I think that when people complain about momentum not performing,
they're forgetting that the best stocks in the market have to cool down and they have to
consolidate. They can't just go up vertically in a straight line in perpetuity. And I think
that's what people miss when they're looking at the leading stocks
or looking at the momentum stocks when they have like these flashes in the pan of weakness or
flashes in the pan of consolidation it's like that's just normal it's supposed to happen anyway
brian i saw you on mute no i was just gonna say to larry tell us how you feel that's what i was
gonna say i just i i really i love the passion i love it I love I love hearing people talk real shit Larry
I love it and that's why I like you because you don't mince around and you're not trying to sell
a service and you're trying to give people value and whether they like it or not value comes in
honesty right so I love it yeah I just I honestly and I only really try to disagree with people I respect because obviously people who don't know me won't know that.
But like I just I think there's a lot of chart deception taking place. You don't need to get out of the US. You don't if the literal equal weight large cap index is making
all-time highs? The stories just don't fucking make sense. So just continue to trot along.
Understand that the S&P 500 is not a diversified index. It's a momentum fund. So when momentum
struggles, S&P 500 struggles. Just realize that and then be positioned, if this does continue,
just be positioned that way. Maybe, like I said, look at a value ETF, look at something. It
complements it really well. But for a lot of people, they need to make it complicated by saying,
oh, it's an international thing within European specific specialty finance group. No, it's simply a underweight software thing. So that's it.
And let's be honest, there's a whole industry about putting charts up and making predictions
and entertainment for people that are not putting one dime into the market, right? There's so many
people out there doing chart porn that are not trading. So yeah, I totally agree with you. I think, look, I think
simple is better. I'm a little lazy, right? I'm a little ADHD. So maybe that's my out, but like,
I just try to put some key moving averages, look at support and resistance levels and a little bit
of chart patterns and that's it. You know, and if I get too complicated, the problem is for me,
if I get too complicated, if I have too many indicators,
and by the way, almost every indicator is just a derivation of price and volume,
sometimes time.
If I put too many indicators on there,
I will find something that will confirm my bias.
And I know that about myself.
So the simpler I make it, the cleaner my charts, the better I do personally.
Now, there may be people that have to complicate it, but I just think less is more.
Yeah.
Yeah, me too.
Just volume and price is all you need.
And a couple moving averages.
A couple moving averages there.
I see a quote.
Moving averages just give you perspective on price when it's moving.
That's really it.
I mean, but yeah, I mean, they can simplify it.
They can help you spot some easy 921 EMA pullbacks, things like that.
Yeah, for sure.
They help you in the velocity.
Like if you see something that's just been ripping above the eight day for six, seven days in a row,
you might like that stock long term, but that should be a sign like, hey, maybe I need to wait for it to cool off a little bit.
So that's where I think moving averages give you a lot of insight.
Yeah, extension, like, you know, overextension of way above the 90MA or something,
like that's probably a stock you should just wait for to come back down.
But yeah, I mean, there's really at the end of the day, it is volume and price. Moving averages are just a lagging sort of perspective on price, on average price.
That's really all they are. So once you understand that, then you're not going to overuse them in
some sort of complicated way. But yeah, I don't think you need much on your chart. I think most
people have way too much stuff on their charts personally. The only other thing I would add there is that one of the great things about living today is you don't have to take my word for it, Brian's word for it, StockTalk's word for it.
You can literally just type in on your computer what is a moving average, and you'll understand when is it useful, when the market is trending.
I see a lot of times people – so just understand that.
So I see a lot of times people – a stock understand that. So I see a lot of times people,
a stock will have a flat moving average. Well, what's a flat moving average symbolizing? The trend is what? Flat. So then why are you going to use a flat moving average as a trend indicator?
Right. So understand these things because then you can understand the nuance and context. Because
if someone is saying, once again, in a consolidation pattern, if something is in a consolidation pattern, the moving average should be flattening out.
And if someone says the moving average is flattening out, this is bearish in a consolidation, just understand they probably don't understand the use case for the moving average.
When we're in mean reversion market, right, maybe you see that, hey, the moving averages are flat.
Maybe if we're at the top of the range and the moving average is flat, it's going to go to the bottom of the range. So you can activate some more meaner version
types of tendencies. So that's the only thing I would add there. Not that I'm trying to make it
more complicated. Just if you understand the derivative of why a technical indicator is
working, it's much more useful. I think that's funny because I think a lot of people think
technicals is very simple and it is in concept. But when you actually dig into because I think a lot of people think technicals is very simple, and it is in concept.
But when you actually dig into the math, a lot of this stuff has use cases, not just every chart always using moving average.
That's the only thing I'd add.
Larry, we got a bunch of earnings coming up after this today.
And after this, I'm going to cycle over towards Snipe and get some of what we're expecting on some of them.
A lot of people are here excited about Robinhood.
Obviously, crypto is linked a little bit to that move there.
We got a Cloudflare, a Lyft, a couple others.
Got any wise words of wisdom?
Maybe a hay avoid.
But yeah, Robinhood is one that a lot of people are watching.
Yeah.
I would just say the thing I used robin hood for and you can go back
and look just type in my name and then type in hood and you'll see it but when i saw hood starting
to struggle that's when i kind of emptied out some of my momentum names but if you look like
i'm just looking at it on a weekly basis if you zoom out on the charts, this 65 level, right, is how far much lower is that from 86?
Yeah, about 25%.
That's where I see some type of support.
And then I ran some AVWAPs from the breakout.
So the tariff bottom breakout,
and we're sitting right below there at 96.
So I don't see an edge in this.
Like this isn't something I see an edge in.
I see something that's falling, and then it hasn't –
the balance hasn't been crazy strong here,
because I think once we get near 100, you have resistance,
and then you have support down here at 65.
So I see a messy range.
So I don't see an edge in that, unfortunately.
It's not something I would be playing, per se, unless you understand a fundamental thesis really, really well for the name.
Yeah, that makes a lot of sense.
Larry, always a fantastic addition to the spaces.
What were you going to say?
I was just going to say, I could say one way or the other and then come back in a week and brag about it, but I literally, it's just not touching it.
You ever play like the day after?
Not often, man. My work is a little bit more boring than you would think.
It really is zooming out on charts and holding positions and then, right, when something like software happens, I pay attention because maybe I see a longer term entry and And so I try to start a position, but I don't, I don't play a ton of earnings. I did
start putting them on my charts because I got screwed a couple of times with some biotech names,
but I tend to just, uh, tend to just avoid them to be honest.
Nice. I appreciate you, sir. Paul, I see you down below. You guys come up. You guys should everyone make sure you are following the amazing speakers up here.
We're about 10 minutes or so, 15 minutes or so from these Robinhood earnings coming out.
Eight minutes from the market close.
A lot of live earnings on these spaces.
Stock Sniper, everyone else should feel free to jump back into the conversation as we were talking here.
But Stock Sniper, I know you want to read out us a number or two.
Tell me more about these Robinhood earnings.
What's expected specifically these Robinhood earnings, what's expected
specifically for Robinhood. Yeah, so I'm going to tell you everything that you need to know about
Robinhood. Basically, there's a couple of key data sets that are going to be more important,
in my opinion, and in most people's opinion, than the actual revenue in EPS. The number one,
and personally, in my opinion, is going to be net deposits and funded customers. We're expecting
this number to come in at 27.12 million.
We're also going to be looking for gold subscribers on Robinhood.
We're expecting this to come in at 3.9 million.
As we all know, Robinhood's AUC absolutely exploded last year, and we're looking for that to continue.
We're looking for Robinhood's AUC to come in at 355.93 billion.
We're looking for the total growth to come in between 30% to
34%. Surprise either way also could move the stock. We're looking at revenue expectations
of $1.35 billion and EPS around $0.63. Now, the implied move on Robinhood certainly has cooled
down from the last four quarters that we've seen. Most analysts are giving Robinhood a hold rating,
not being short, not being long. And it's just
basically the sector is expected to not be one of the biggest performers in 2026.
The implied move on this is $7.26 or 8.43%. This is basically looking at the open interest at 1,800,
2702. Now we can look at the open interest of the last couple of reports and we were exceeding
2 million. Basically in the last four reports also, we haven't seen some crazy moves. The last report wasn't the greatest. We saw
a minus 10.81% reaction. Prior to that, we saw a minus 2.87, minus 5.07, pretty much nothing burgers.
And then four quarters ago, we saw a plus 14.11% when they announced this massive AUC boom.
I personally am going to say I want to see their AUC come in. I
think the $355.93 billion is very feasible. And again, with the stock market growing and all of
the people holding stocks within Robinhood, that AUC will also be compounding there as well. So
when we expect the market to come up slightly from last quarter, we can pretty much look for
that AUC to grow simultaneously with it. But again, guys, all this information is posted below in the description on Stocks on Spaces.
And you could see this, but watch for those four data sets and keep a look out for that revenue and EPS.
We already know that they are expanding into EU.
It looks like they are executing pretty well.
Keep an eye out for an announcement on that as well.
But that's pretty much overall the main data sets
and everything that we should be watching on Robinhood.
We're expecting these numbers coming out
in about 10 minutes from now.
Robinhood numbers coming out in 10 minutes or so.
I appreciate Sniper you for running us through there
a little bit on that one.
Hamid, I know I've already asked you on this a little bit,
but why don't we circle back and talk one more time about these robin hood numbers coming up here after the close obviously
it's the name that you're watching and have been watching a bunch it's up a good bit over the last
couple years but it was as high as like 140 150 or something it's hanging out here around 85 86
dollars a big part of that is crypto obviously Obviously, prediction markets going the other way.
Exploding a little bit here, especially on that platform.
I'm curious on what you're expecting for this call.
Obviously, Robinhood gives out their monthly user data.
So, I mean, I don't know how many surprises we're expecting.
But Robinhood tends to have pretty good earnings, I feel like.
Yeah. So, just to give you a little bit of context,
I had been a huge proponent of Robinhood and had been buying it since it was like $7.50 a share or something like that.
And for the past year, I have been mostly trimming my Robinhood position as it hits new highs.
And my last trim was in the 150s.
But then as it went down pretty substantially, I started actually buying some of the shares
that I had trimmed back in the 90s, then again, some more in the 80s, and then some more in
the 70s in the past two weeks, basically, as it just continued this freefall that was very much
correlated with Bitcoin.
And, you know, like all of the technical analysts will tell you that based on the trends, it's
going to go down to the 50s or whatever.
I don't use technical analysis, so I don't know what it's going to go down to.
And I have never
invested in that way but what i can tell you is that robin hood is one of those companies that i
consider a great company and at uh 70 80 90 dollars a share even 100 a share i considered a good price
so i have added to my position over the past couple of weeks. I think they're
going to have a great quarter. But even if they don't and they have a temporary hiccup or something
for some reason, it's still a great company. If you were to fast forward five years from now
and ask the question, is there going to be more people and more assets on Robinhood?
Is there going to be more people and more assets on Robinhood?
And are they going to be successful with their banking product and their credit card and all these financial products that they have been introducing versus, let's say, the rest of the financial market, like the Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley's and E-Trade and Schwab's of the world?
The answer to that, to me, is very obvious.
And it's that like Robinhood is going to be much, much larger and it's going to grow much,
much faster than these other companies in the sector that are considered to be good or great companies.
So from that standpoint, I think that Robinhood is a great company that I can buy currently at a good price and therefore I've been buying more of it.
So, you know, what I'm going to be looking for in their earnings is like indications as to, you know, A, how are the different businesses growing?
A, how are the different businesses growing?
And B, when are they going to launch their banking products widely,
which I anticipate is going to be a huge success.
And I'm just excited from an all-around great company reporting
and sort of getting a snapshot of where they're at today.
So that's what excites me about Robinhood's earnings report today.
So that's what excites me about Robinhood's earnings report today.
Took us pretty much right to the market close.
Earnings Hub says 405 is what time you should expect these numbers to be reported.
Stock Talk, can I get you, you got any more thoughts there?
Maybe what Mead was talking about there.
Do you kind of, I think you were saying Robinhood's a small position for you at this point.
Is there a level you'd consider making it a little bit bigger again?
No, really.
I mean, Robinhood used to be a big weighting for me,
but the portfolio has grown like 10x since I first bought it.
So that's going to make the weighting smaller.
You know, it's not by design. It's not like I like sold Robin first bought it. So that's going to make the weighting smaller. You know, it's not
by design. It's not like I like sold Robinhood into it. I mean, a lot of times when you go through
my portfolio for the people that are in the community and you see like these big weightings
at like nine or 10 or 11 or 12%, it's not that like I intended them to be that way. It's that
the positions performed well and climbed in weighting, right? So Robinhood's drawdown has dropped its weighting.
And at first when it was performing, I didn't have any options, right?
I have options on other positions.
I had just shares.
And so that's going to make it lag in weighting.
So I like Robinhood a lot.
It's not by design that it's a 2.5% weighting or whatever it is.
But it used to be a 6% or 7% weighting like just two years ago. So, yeah, it's not by design that it's a small weighting or whatever it is but you know it used to be a six or seven percent weighting like just two years ago so um yeah it's not it's not by design that it's a small weighting but yeah
maybe there will be a point i mean if i anytime i think that there's like an opportunity the
markets are understanding whether the stock gets sold off on something that you know i might think
is a good report or whatever yeah maybe i would add more in those scenarios but um i mean my cost
base advantage is obviously very deep you know i have 19 share, so I'm not in a rush to add up here either, but I do think
the stock is cheaper than it's been in a while.
We were talking about this yesterday, but, you know, it was trading at like close to
100p at one point, and now it's back down to the 30s.
You know, I think forward forward it might even be in
the high 20s let me go check that right now actually
okay forward is sitting at 33 you know trailing it's sitting at 35 that's it's not super cheap
or anything but it's way cheaper than it has been you know uh for most of this run so that puts in an interesting spot i think you've seen you saw a nice bounce in the last couple
days for this thing to potentially stabilize it or or maybe locate a bottom but uh this earnings
will tell us whether or not that that's actually the case um i don't want it wasn't really a bounce
off of any key level but you know you know, off of 70 essentially.
And we've come up here into the mid 80s now before this report.
So it'd be nice to see my earnings move to bring us back above at least the 90
MA, maybe the 21 for now,
they've just served as steady overhead resistance on the way down.
And so you'd like to see that, that change post earnings. But I expect good numbers. Obviously, there's going to be a lot of overfocus on their crypto
business. I think last time we talked about Robinhood, I think Hamid and a few other people
made some good points about how even if the crypto business slows substantially for Robinhood,
there's still a dramatic amount of opportunity around their equity business, their credit card business, their banking business, their prediction markets business.
And so, you know, in the grand scheme of things, crypto is just one component for them.
So I don't like that the stock trades as a crypto proxy, but, you know, it has for a
while.
So maybe it'll break that correlation at some point i would like
to see that we'll see if earnings is the chance for it to do that i mean if it was ever going to
happen on time it could be earnings and i do think that prediction markets do give it a little bit of
a chance to uh to break away from that direct crypto proxy it'll always be there a little bit
to break away from that direct crypto proxy it'll always be there a little bit
damn that is so loud i'm not gonna hear that in the background but we are two minutes from
the earnings being released i'm sure there's a few numbers actually coming out right now anyway
a couple of the other smaller ones there was a few other names like i was saying that people
cared about gilead gild reported earnings maybe eps beat revenue
Gilead, GILD reported earnings.
Maybe EPS beat revenue.
Lattice Semiconductor also reported.
Let me just check the price moves on one or two of these.
Gilead is down 4%.
Lattice Semiconductor is up 10%.
There you go.
A little bit of a different way is moving there.
We should be about two minutes away
from Robinhood reporting earnings.
What's up, Paul?
Hey, what's going on, guys?
Doing well, doing well.
We're waiting for these numbers.
One minute.
A lot of FinTwit is on there. Let me get that hood chart back in front of me. But doing well. We're waiting for these numbers. One minute. A lot of FinTwit is on there. Let me get the
hood chart back in front of me.
But doing well. Obviously, it's a little bit of
crazy time here over the next little bit.
Cloudflare, we're also going to be reporting in 10 minutes.
That's a watch name.
Ford, which I know also gets talked about.
LEU as well. A lot of
names are reporting. Looks like LEU might have actually
already reported.
My guess is that's not one that's going to really move off of earnings too too much but yeah we are seconds away from robin
hood numbers being reported i see eps expectations around 63 cents i see revenue expectations right
around 1.33 billion for a robin had coming up Stock's hanging out around 86.45.
Sniper wise.
So it's down like 40% since his last report,
Sniper, something like that.
Interesting mover.
All right, Robinhood should be pretty much out here.
Estera Labs reported.
I got a notification. Robinhood down 5%.
Here we go.
Robinhood numbers down 7%.
Revenue of $1.28 billion, which I'm seeing as a miss on expectations.
And then I'm seeing EPS of $0.66, which is a beat on expectations of 63 cents.
Let me see some more stuff.
Get this back in front of me.
News.
Revenue was a miss.
Q4 transaction-based revenue we've up.
EPS was a beat as well.
So they did miss on revenue expectations. Interesting.
Gold subscribers up to 4.2 million.
Is there any data on where in the revenue number they missed?
Yeah.
Total platform assets, $324 billion. No, i have not seen it just quite yet
um because a lot of the stuff doesn't have expectations just right next to it
i'm seeing notification lift stock is down 10 by the way as well lift moving lower here down
10 robin node hanging out around 80 dollars let me try and get this report back in front of me
so I can dig in a little bit deeper.
Total platform assets, $324 billion, up 68% year over year.
Net deposits at the end of Q4 was $15.9 billion.
Like I said there, gold subscribers, $4.2 million,
up 58% year over year let's see what else i can find
and it comes down a little bit let's see what crypto revenue was during the quarter
what crypto revenue was during the quarter event contracts traded were 8.5 billion
they released some january operating data as well 3.4 billion contracts were traded during uh january
i don't see anything on the uh on the super bowl weekends
on the Super Bowl weekends.
Jeez, Sniper.
Are you here?
I'm seeing a report.
Ford reports worst quarterly earnings miss in four years.
Wait, say that again?
Ford, I just got a notification,
reports worst quarterly earnings miss in five years,
is what that just said.
First stock bill,
that's just down 1%.
Stock talk.
Any initial thoughts here on this Robinhood reports?
I haven't,
I've seen some numbers,
but I haven't seen too much versus expectations.
Yeah.
I got to go through the details of it.
I haven't gone through the details of it yet.
I'm pulling it up right now on their website.
Just give me a couple of minutes.
Yeah, that is fair.
Paul, you got any initial thoughts going into this?
Anything interesting today that you were like watching going into this that you wanted to say?
No, I've had a really busy day, so I haven't been tied to the screen.
You know, part of my role is doing this stuff.
And then another part is being out in front of clients.
And we are getting a lot of interest from clients.
So I've been doing a lot of that work. But I will say with Robinhood,
I'd like to see why the revenue is amiss. And if a lot of that is from crypto and crypto holdings,
well, that makes a little bit of sense. If transactions are up and deposits are up,
that would be encouraging to me because ultimately, at the end of the day, if it's just one section
like crypto that's bringing it down, that could repair itself when the price of crypto
and especially Bitcoin goes up.
So I just want to dig into these numbers a little bit more and just see what's happening
and just make it a termination then.
Well, they can't be down on revenue because of crypto holdings.
That would affect EPS, not revenue.
Very true, very true.
No, it would affect revenue because they get a percentage of the transaction.
So if the transactions in crypto and the value of those transactions is lower, the combination of the two would hit their revenue.
But it's not because of their holdings specifically.
Oh, no, no, no, not because of their holdings.
Hamid, did you have any other thoughts as you were reading the Robert Lee report, initial thoughts?
Yeah, I'm going through it.
Net deposits for almost 16 billion that's
that's like a big uh factor for from my perspective um that's an annualized growth rate of 19 percent
um robin hood gold subscribers up 58 they were up one and a half million to 4.2 million which
is pretty incredible uh that's a very stable source of revenue
that doesn't go up and down based on transaction volume.
That's pretty sweet.
Total platform assets up 68% year over year,
which is fantastic.
And a lot of that is driven by just net deposits
and acquired assets from other
other firms um funded customers increased by 1.8 million year over year uh to 27 million that's
pretty big deal they have 27 million customers that they're going to basically try to market
banking products to so that's huge i mean this company is in very, very good shape for the future, right?
Like the small miss on the top line revenue
doesn't seem like a big deal to me.
Net income of $605 million, which beat expectations,
is pretty incredible.
By the way, that $605 million is on like just shy of 1.3 billion in, uh, in revenue.
So it's almost like half of their revenue is pure profit, which is those numbers are
pretty insane margins.
Um, so you can imagine as they grow, grow revenues, the profitability is just going to
be monstrous from here on out
logically i wonder if you've had a chance to take a look at the uh the robinhood numbers
at all if you have any initial thoughts going through this no i, I don't follow Robinhood that much.
I think it's a stock that if you've paid attention to the chart at all,
it just is grouped up with names like Apple and Palantir.
And, you know, a lot of these kind of look, the popular growth stocks
of the last two years, it's just a technical sell off to me more than anything.
Obviously, it's a cyclical business. Obviously, it's really tied to, you know, crypto as well as options trading.
And as you've seen in the last three months, you've basically since October, which is the start of Q4,
I would love to see what those options related revenues are, but they're down just like the crypto transactions are down you know q over q like q3 was a great
time for speculation q4 was not q4 people got taken to the woodshed and a lot of this retail
trading stuff so i mean just think about it right like i mean if anything there's no stock in the
market that is more representative of fintwit than robin hood stock because if you see the activity
on here you see people posting screenshots.
Funny enough, it's Robinhood screenshots for their year to date performance.
That probably peaked in September.
And then you're going to get, I think what I'm trying to say is like the cyclicality
of that business is very clear.
It's going to be cyclical with the market and specifically higher beta stocks, because
that's what retail traders are invested in. So if those prices aren't going up, then they're not going to
be trading if they're losing money. So and I mean, crypto just took a big dump, right? 90k to 68k or
whatever. So nothing surprised me about that. If you look at the chart of Robinhood, it's below the
200 days, just been free falling.
A lot of the fintech names have been doing the same thing.
You can look at SoFi, another popular growth name, fintech specifically, but that's down
a lot.
I'm, you know, obviously, these aren't all the same thing, but they do trade very similar
to each other.
So is it a concern long term?
No, obviously not.
But I think what people forget to acknowledge is that, you know, the stock went from like
14 to 140 in the matter of like, you know, a year and a half or something.
I think having a pullback and specifically a pullback that is actually, on some of the one underlying fundamentals based on market cycles, like
these kind of like sell off periods, we have volatility, they're gonna have less business.
But then two, it's part of the momentum factor, which has been unwinding in the stock market.
So it's kind of like, when they're doing great, they're doing double great. And then when they're
doing bad, they're getting hit double hard. So that's just kind of what you're seeing in this stock. And
obviously, if you bought above 100, you're not feeling too good today.
But I know a lot of people probably bought under $40. And so you're probably still doing just
fine. What's the stock at right now after ours? In the 70s, 79 or or so and i'm wondering if they're feeling it like increased
kind of increased competition from some of the larger financial institutions that are starting to
adapt to their model and add in things that had traditionally been you know robinhood was a place
that you could go to get those things uh to be an all you know one-stop shop uh and now you know larger institutions are
adding things like crypto and various different mean coins and things like that i wonder if any
of that competition is um is you know starting to encroach on that it's not gonna i don't think it
matters for the long-term thesis these guys are fairly bulletproof like i think once you're with
a broker you're with a broker,
you're not just going to switch unless something goes terribly wrong. So interactive brokers,
for example, has obviously been doing really well too. And I have a good amount of probably
retail investors there as well. But obviously Robinhood won the retail investor. So I think
most of these, look, it's a long-term story, 10, 20, 30 years. It's not like a of these look it's a long term story 10 20 30 years it's not like a yes
it's great that the stock went up a lot in the short period of time that's what's going to happen
in bull markets on a stock like this it's going to go up with the market but I just wouldn't over
like I wouldn't overthink any given quarter I would think about this on like years and decades.
I can't imagine that anything that happened in this quarter is due to competitive, like
anything market share loss.
Like I don't think that's, I wouldn't be thinking about that at this point.
Yeah, no, that makes sense.
They've been active, they've been moving very quickly.
They've been leaders in the space.
There's been a bunch of new products and it'd be hard to think that.
I also do know that Q4 of last year, not of 2024, was some very high comps that these
companies were dealing with.
Well, yeah, because you had the election and that sparked a rally and everything in november
so until december that makes sense
with any other interesting earnings we had today there were there were a few uh snipe i don't know
if you have any numbers you want to read on them we had cloudflare sara labs lift upstart ford
We had Cloudflare, Sterilabs, Lyft, Upstart, Ford, Centris Energy, Gilead.
I had to look at these.
Holy moly.
We had a lot, yeah.
There's so many things.
Yeah, I got you.
From the top down, Cloudflare revenue came in at $614.5 million,
expected with $591.36 million.
EPS at $0.28, expected $0.27.
Cloudflare stock is up 10% in After Hours TickerNet. Baller. million EPS at 28 cents expected 27 cents out flare stock well tower cloud
flare stock is 10% and after hours ticker net baller big balling well tower
3.18 billion verse 2.99 billion expected EPS 14 cents verse 42 cents expected
Zillow 654 million 650 million, $650 million expected. EPS, $0.01 expected.
Zillow down 4%.
We got Lyft at $1.59 billion versus $1.75 billion expected.
EPS at $6.81 expected was .012.
expected was 0.012.
That was 14% Lyft stock.
That was 14% lift stock.
Estera Labs, 270.58 million versus 249.55 million expected.
58 cent EPS versus 51 cent expected.
I'm actually surprised to see Alab down 7% because, I mean,
it was pretty well telegraphed after that credo numbers that we got yesterday
that like Al lab should be
doing well but i yeah i didn't i didn't see that coming i don't think anyone did forward guidance
slightly above expectations at least in eps on revenue yeah i'm surprised a lab's even lower
forward guidance also above pretty sure it's just like an astronomically expensive stock so that
kind of makes sense sorry stop the stocks never go ahead oh no you're good Gilead 7.92 billion for 7.68 billion expected
EPS 1.86 first 1.83 expected double beat there upstart we were not expecting
EPS from them but they told us 17 cents revenue at 296 million expected 288
million so overall
you cut out there at the end but it was uh it was a good run through it was a good run through
a couple large movers there a couple interesting movers you are good you are good
shut up humphrey down below Made a really good video on gold
and Costco.
I think he bought
Costco gold at $2,400 per ounce
and it's currently at $5,000.
It's gone up a little bit.
Shout out to that.
A lot of these earnings are moving lower here
in after hours.
The earnings call is at 5 p.m. Eastern
for Robinhood for anyone curious.
Paul, were any of these other earnings interesting for you at all?
Cloudflare, Lyfts?
You a big Ford guy?
Well, I'm a big Ford guy.
S-150?
One of my buddies is an executive at Ford and literally reports to the CEO.
So I'm always rooting for Ford.
And all the cars that I've owned, believe it or not,
over the past 25 years because of him are all Fords. He makes it easy for me. But, you know,
look, the car manufacturers have a little bit of a tough go of it right now because, you know,
with interest rates higher and the prices of cars, it's kind of similar to what you might see
in the housing market.
So it doesn't surprise me that they're suffering a little bit.
And I don't know if you guys have had to take your cars to like a Ford service center or
something like that.
Like volumes are down.
Just recently, I had to get something done and I took it down there.
And they're literally like the service fee is so much more than if you took it to like your local mechanic who could do the exact same job,
get the exact same parts, you know, probably for like half the amount of hourly work. So
they do have a lot of challenges in the car business right now. And then I also think,
and I'm gonna dive into these numbers a little bit more,
you know, they are trying to onshore more and more
and making investments in the US.
So I'll be looking at that when I'm trying to, you know,
go through those numbers to see what's actually happening.
As far as Lyft is concerned, I don't really get Lyft.
You know, like I really, it's not something that I've ever invested in As far as Lyft is concerned, I don't really get Lyft.
It's not something that I've ever invested in because I don't believe in the story.
And I think that their business is not only do they have massive competition from Uber,
but also the industry is sort of changing and shifting. So it's not something that I've ever invested in. I don't have high
conviction in Lyft or Uber. So I tend to sort of stay away from those names.
Ford is an interesting one. Ford's been in that range for such a long time.
I imagine it's going to stick there.
Oh, it's up now in after hours.
While I have my earnings calendar still open in front of me,
we still have a lot of names reporting later in this week.
Shopify, tomorrow morning, McDonald's, Grab, Cisco, Coinbase, Nebius.
Nebius announced an acquisition this morning.
Stock talk, you see that?
I actually didn't. I didn't see that.
Nebius agreed to acquire a company called Tavili,
building the unified stack for AI agents.
They acquired them for $275 million.
Tavili, that's a Mediterranean salad, bro.
It's AI coming to the food place,
coming to the restaurants.
Yeah, Nebius coming up later in the week.
If they give off the price of the acquisition,
the tens of the acquisition that
tends to mean it's not super small i think it's 274 million on cash we'll also have camico reporting
earnings later this week rivian rivian has been a pretty hot one maybe we'll talk about that in a
second paul maybe i could kick it over to you and then we'll circle it around if any of these other
earnings any other stuff coming up later in this week that are really interesting for you that
you're excited about let me dig in and i will get back to you i'm i'm trying to catch up on in this week that are really interesting for you that you're exciting about let me dig in
and i will get back to you i'm trying to catch up on all this information so i don't know
no no i appreciate you and by the way i want to say everyone should make sure that they are
following the speakers up here uh we're getting the numbers out in real time giving you guys our
reactions in real time a lot of really smart people joining this panel, making it so fantastic.
Obviously, we did just get the Robinhood earnings coming out here.
Stock is moving lower.
There's a lot of other names reporting earnings,
but Robinhood stock is moving lower following its earnings.
What about you, Logical?
I feel like you'd have a lot of companies that you were watching and reporting this week.
Actually, not too much. I have two that I'm watching in the morning. I don't have a position right now in either of them.
Dude, I've been managing exposure very different right now because I still feel like we're in this chop hell. I did add some exposure today. So I am more long than I was
before. I'm just managing very differently. But I don't know if you ever kept it up about nectar,
man, but it was down a lot. And today it's up like 50%.
Is it really?
So that's pretty nice. Yeah, they had a good data. And that was expected. But I actually bought
again, I re entered today after the data.
So I'm an average up kind of guy in those circumstances.
I added some software names today.
I added back some of these small cap healthcare names that I liked, but none of them really
are reporting earnings.
That personalis, which is that baby Tem tempest ai that i always talk about i mean
the charts been looking bad so i haven't been able to size it appropriately but they just got um
insurance reimbursement coverage for their second indication lung cancer so this thing can like
potentially rival like the tara one day like a 30th of the size. So it is becoming serious. So I was able to, I re-entered
that today. There's a lot to like, tomorrow I'm watching GFS, just global foundries.
I cut the position, but I'm going to just see what happens on earnings. A lot of these
things is like, there's just this overall market volatility. And if I like, I don't
like, as StockTag would say say like, if I don't have
like some sort of deep cost basis, like I can just afford to not go into the position and just see
how this reacts into earnings, rather than take on that risk. I don't need to do that. So that I'm
watching ASND, which is Ascendis Health. It's like a biotech, but it's far more established than the
typical small cap. It's like a $10 billion company. it's far more established than the typical small cap.
It's like a $10 billion company.
So I'm watching those two.
I think, I don't know, GFS had like a very weird cell candle at the end of the day.
So it has me like, whoa, right before, you know, close and they're going to report in the morning.
That's a little weird.
And then ASND actually had the opposite reaction today.
It looked like it was bought up.
So I'm watching those two for tomorrow.
No position either.
Willing to re-enter both.
Just watching.
I think it's been a weird earnings season
because actually a lot of the results have been quite good,
but the market is shit.
And so that's the problem.
Is that like it's just not a fun backdrop.
Because while there are some names that have been able to hold their gains from earnings,
a lot of others are, it's like, I don't know, muted reactions or there's really,
they're not really being rewarded properly.
So I feel like the risk reward just isn't there
in a lot of these earnings cases.
So if I can afford to just skip the earnings,
watch the reaction, I'll do that.
Like for example, Jumia reported this morning
and I didn't have a position.
The reason I didn't have a position is because
recently it had closed below the 50 day.
And while I could feel the market was shaky,
it's weird. I mean,
you get the monthly updates for October, November. It looks good. But we didn't get the December
update. Obviously, we're waiting for the Q4 earnings. But then it loses the 50-day. So
it's feeling a little weak. It hadn't lost 50 in a long, long time. And then I size down the
position. That's just my rule right now. And then it cuts through the 100 day like butter. I'm just like, okay, that is weird. Especially because we know that they're going to have strong Q4 report because we know October, November. But I'm like, you know what, like in this market, I'm not taking a chance into earnings. I'm down a few percent on the position. I'm just going to cut it and see what happens on earnings. And of course, next couple of days, it rallies, gets an upgrade. I see it just rallies right back into this resistance
area where it lost support. And of course, they report earnings today and it's down like 16%.
And the report wasn't as good as expected. Somebody always knows. So I think it's good to take
some signal. I wouldn't say like take all your signal from technical analysis. But when like
long term supports that have held, the stock
slices through it like butter, that's something I pay attention to, especially with the additional
context that you have an earnings report coming up. That to me feels like, okay, someone got some
alt data, they probably want to de-risk into earnings, clearly breaking that support level,
which is held, which means that the sellers were able to overwhelm the buyers. So that's kind of how I look at it. Again, I don't think always there's
signal in these things. But when you add additional layers of context, like long-term support gets
sliced through very easily, earnings coming up, that kind of thing, it does make me pay a lot
more attention. I'm happy for it today because I ended up avoiding that.
Stimler with GFS today, I think that stock should do really well.
I could totally be, it could totally gap up tomorrow, straight up.
So I could be wrong, but that sell, it ended up being 2x average volume the day before
earnings.
Things like that just make me, and it slices through the 21 EMA.
Not a big deal.
Could totally be up 30% tomorrow,
for all I know.
It's not an expensive stock.
I just...
If I don't need to play earnings right now,
I'm kind of sidestepping them,
seeing how it reacts,
and then assessing after the binary event
since I have no position
and I don't need to have one.
Other than that,
I think tomorrow's job print, I'm sure you guys talked about it.
It seems like there was some commentary from Navarro that it's going to be pretty bad,
pretty ugly.
We should be thinking about our revisions down and blah, blah, blah, because we don't
have immigrants anymore or whatever.
It's like setting the stage for a big time disappointment.
Obviously, you saw the retail sales numbers came in below estimates.
I saw another data point from Walter Bloomberg saying that delinquencies have hit record highs or 10-year highs or something like that.
But these aren't really that concerning, again, but I think the market does this thing where sentiment can, it's like a pendulum.
And it goes from one end to the other end. And right now the pendulum is swinging towards what I said a couple of days ago on here,
which is, you know, maybe we start getting to quote unquote,
recession fears or on growing unemployment because you got that jobs report, which is kind of like
the appetizer late last week saying, you know, like 7%, 40% of the layoffs were Amazon and UPS and then, or was it FedEx?
I don't remember, but 7% of the layoffs can be attributed to AI.
So you're getting that as kind of the appetizer.
Now you're getting these follow-up bad retail sales.
follow up bad retail sales, you're getting potential delinquencies rising for consumers,
and then you're getting them to talk about this report tomorrow that's coming out.
I think you generally want to fade these narratives, but only when they get to extremes.
I think that the number of data points are stacking up to create this kind of fear in the market.
And if I mean, just you don't need to be like a super savvy technical analyst or
whatever, but you can just look at the charts, like the cues and big tech and
you know, even software, I hate to say it because I actually did take some
positions today.
I think some of them could easily
make another leg lower. Like for example, Microsoft looks heavy, could easily bear flag and drop down
to 340, 350. And, you know, I think eventually you're going to get like these no brainer buy
opportunities. It's just that it's still choppy at the index level. A lot of that is being heavily weighted by the Qs.
If you think about Amazon, I mean, as much as I love Amazon,
and I love Amazon at this price especially,
the truth is they're a consumer cyclical
because they get a lot of their revenue from the retail side.
So if you start getting fears of some sort of recession,
which is not going to happen with GDP growing the way it is. I want to make that clear. Like, I am not bearish. I don't think I'm just saying that
there could be fear that sparks like the correction to continue and you could have that other leg
lower. So, you know, if I think that, I mean, why did I add exposure today? Realistically, I added 30% long exposure,
but I added 10% short exposure today.
So basically, I added 20% net long exposure.
I still have like 30% cash.
I think this is fair.
Because no matter what,
if somebody gave you the information for tomorrow,
I bet you still can't guess what happens. That's the hard part of being in markets is you're speculating at best. So I just want to
be at a comfortable level where I'm buying things that I like no matter what. I like the prices I'm
buying them at. But if there's more downside, then I will take full advantage of that with my cash position
and lightening up some of those shorts.
And, you know, so then I can get more aggressive.
So I don't think it's the time to be aggressive yet.
I don't think any of that has changed from a few days bounce.
I think the bounce was obvious to anyone who watches markets.
You know, like we were oversold,
stocks don't move in a straight line,
you know, that kind of thing.
So yeah, I guess just wait for a little more clarity.
That's all.
I can jump in a little bit right here.
Regarding optimism,
it looks like from our trading volumes and our products,
and I can't give you the specific numbers, people were pretty bullish going into this on Robin
Hood during the regular trading hours.
I won't get the numbers of what that looks like after hours, but it does seem that we
had some high trading volumes in our two times levered Robin Hood, Hoog, H-O-O-G.
But I'm sure people aren't super happy about that today.
But people were optimistic during the regular trading hours going in.
It'll be interesting.
You mentioned what else I'll be looking at.
One thing that does come to mind, especially from our perspective,
there's been a lot of activity around like crypto, whether it's, you know, some of the positions that we have in the treasury, you know, the like BMNR or BMNG and like IRON and some of the others.
It'll be interesting to see what happens with Coinbase coming up in a couple of days to see how this move in crypto impacts their earnings call and whether or not people have already punished that stock enough or whether or not people will be optimistic heading into it just based on potential realism or thought that we could be hitting some kind of stability in crypto prices.
But that's definitely something that we'll be paying attention to,
both for our capped accelerated product and our two times long leveraged product.
I mean, it's so hard, right?
Because if you mentioned going into this Coinbase earnings,
I think even it's hard to say that it's priced in because there's so much uncertainty around crypto
prices right now that it's, you know, anyone's guess if the next direction for
crypto is up or down.
I seriously don't think anyone can have high conviction one way or another.
If I were, if I had to make a decision, I would say crypto prices go lower from here.
You know, especially when you're having kind of this lack of clarity in the market, you're
having big tech rollover.
I know people, you know, want to say that these are uncorrelated, but at the end of
the day, crypto is still viewed as a somewhat speculative, somewhat risk-on, somewhat liquidity-driven asset.
And so the fact that big tech and Qs aren't strong and these things have been highly correlated, it just feels that everything is still really heavy.
is still really heavy. The big market caps are very heavy. Now, if you did get crypto to rebound,
The big market caps are very heavy.
I think that could be a potential good leading indicator for tech stocks and such. But
I just don't see it right now. As much as I think Microsoft at $400 is actually a great buy,
I do think that. I don't want to own it right now. And that's dumb or not dumb, but the risk-reward,
like what's the upside for Microsoft versus downside?
If the downside is 10%, 15%, let's say,
the upside is what, 30%?
Right?
Until it gets to kind of a harder return from there.
I don't know.
It's not a bad risk-reward,
but none of these look like they're bottoming i i do
see that you know microsoft i think is that like the 200 week which is interesting or it's near the
200 ema on the weekly i think which is where it basically bottomed uh in the tariff tantrum but
some of these just look like they want to roll over you know it's it just a little bit of like this, this kind of bounce, bear flag,
low volume, okay, it's oversold, shorted again or something.
Until they can give me some sort of basing or something to show me that, you know, it's
bottomed, I just, I'm just being a little bit hesitant and I don't, I'm not buying any
big tech or things that are just slicing through 200 days.
And I can't even imagine what Bitcoin looks like.
I haven't looked at it in a while, but I'm sure that's like big time.
Let me see.
It's at 68 and change today.
Dropped a little bit.
I mean, I don't know if you have any moving averages on your chart, but one, the 200
days at 101,000, you're at 68,000.
So you're like 33% below that.
Every moving average is just headed lower and it's so much higher.
So it's not even caught up to price at all.
And if you have the 6 EMA on your chart, which I use nowadays,
you could see that it bounced right into the 6 EMA
and it's rolling over about to do an H pattern.
So to me, it looks like Bitcoin is headed lower, if I were to guess.
And it's not just Bitcoin, you know, a lot of things look like this and
I don't know, I want to be bullish, but I think you have like another, you know,
I think the Q's probably bottom out at like a 10, 15% correction.
I don't think that's out of the question at all.
Do you think we're getting to a place again where as NVIDIA goes, the market goes?
Is that going to be the key and critical earnings report again?
And could that be something that could shift sentiment?
Like the way that it did in prior years?
You said NVIDIA? Yeah, I said NVIDIA. that could shift sentiment like the way that it did in prior years you said in media yeah i said in video uh it's tough right because last quarter they had the most insane quarter i've ever seen
any company ever report um i didn't think it could save the market it felt like it could and then it
reversed in the entire day i think that generally generally speaking, the look, you know, it doesn't take a
genius to figure out that everything except tech is working this year. So the money is flowing out
of tech into industrials and staples and, you know, materials, energy. And tech is where that money is
coming from. So money is rotating out of tech. And if you look at the last three, four months of
price action on the queues, it's been clearly distribution, which means people have been selling
tech to buy these other things. Now, here's where I actually am constructive is because,
and I think StockFact probably said this before, but dude, you think, staples at 40 times earnings is a better bet than like Amazon at 20 or whatever.
Now, I think the issue with that argument is that while earnings are strong, one, you know, Amazon is a consumer cyclical.
It's more based on discretionary.
I'm just using Amazon as an example.
But a lot of these businesses touch consumers, even Meta, which is based on its ad business,
which is based on the health of the consumer because the marketing budgets, etc.
If anything, if you have like a sort of consumer slowdown, marketing budgets are the first
to get slushed.
So they're all going to be tied to the consumer.
If you see consumer weakness, one, it's going to hurt their sales.
So people extrapolate.
Does that actually happen?
Whatever, whatever.
My point is, you're seeing weaker consumer data come in.
So I wouldn't personally want to be exposed to something like Amazon in the moment
because their retail is such a drag on the underlying technology business there.
So it's really tough to get some of these going if the consumer is
going to get weaker. Two, free cash flow is going to compress and probably head to negative for most
of these big tech stocks. So even if, let's say, NVIDIA is the recipient of that, it's one big tech
stock versus the other six that are basically spenders of that Cappex. So you know, one person's free cash flow goes up,
six of them go way down. And generally speaking, you know, it's not why, you know, markets went
down in 22, went down in 22 because of because we had the fastest rate cycle, rate hike cycle,
we were at astronomical valuation, right? There's a there's a laundry list of reasons. But if you think about
big tech, they had huge, I mean, I would say at least for Amazon, they had huge capex investment,
right? So did Meta, and they had a year of efficiency. So they're doing this big time
capex investment. People didn't know what the payoff would be. But we didn't know that it was
going to make their free cash flow go negative.
We also had a consumer slowdown in early 22.
So again, if you have a threat of a consumer slowdown now,
that's going to affect these businesses.
So you're going to have a potential compounding issue,
which is weaker consumer equals less revenues,
equals way less profits,
equals time of big time CapEx
investment, which means that you're, you're, you know, compressing free cash flows a lot,
and then you're compressing them to negative territory with CapEx investment.
And generally speaking, these stocks compress in price in times of investment.
Doesn't, you know, again, right?
Like, does that matter?
I don't know, right?
Because this is a real, like AI is a real cycle.
There is ROI immediately from this.
I think if you're bullish, the one good thing is
you're going to be able to buy some of these tech stocks
down 30, 40, 50%
into what should be one of the greatest eras for them.
So people will buy these staples and they'll buy these industrials and they'll buy the cyclicals
or whatever. But I mean, eventually you got to assume that, all right, is this staples company
growing at 3% a year really worth me paying 40 times earnings for like, you know, the risk
outweighs the reward there. And then eventually, you know, what are they going to do? Go back to
cash? Or are they going to buy, you know, Amazon down 35%? You know, I think that there's a decent
like, reason to believe that if you see weaker tech now and the market's holding up the bull
case is that tech starts to see flows again eventually.
And that is what fuels the next leg of this bull market.
So that's kind of my camp.
So are you saying this is more sentiment-driven and you would be a seller of any big move up around earnings?
So let's say NVIDIA has an even stronger quarter than they had last quarter.
We can reasonably make the assumption that they are the beneficiary of all this CapEx spending,
and that the CapEx spending is accelerating. Come earnings time, if NVIDIA has a move like it had last time, do you think the pattern continues where that gets sold and rotated out?
So I think it's important to realize that in technology we've seen a bifurcation.
And there's still a bifurcation amongst the Mag7.
So NVIDIA can literally go straight to the moon, but the rest of the MAG7 can go down
because they're the capex spenders with the negative FCF, which means that the sum of
the weights of those MAG7 are going to weigh heavier on the Qs.
So NVIDIA can go up, Qs can go down.
And that's kind of what you've seen in the trade with hardware versus software.
IGV is way down, all these software stocks are dead. But meanwhile, Micron, SanDisk,
but so many dozens of this Light, Form, AAOI,
all these different optical elements,
these hardware names in data centers,
they're doing well.
So they kind of fit the mold of more so industrials. They're the beneficiaries of the
capex spending. So I don't think it's and actually, that's why I actually remain more bullish
is because at the end of the day, it's not like the entire market is correcting,
the market is being very logical in which one is winning and which one isn't. So you know, they're buying the things that are going to accelerate their top line and bottom line,
and they're selling the things that are going to be forced to have, you know, reduced cash flows
over the next few years, especially if they're overly exposed to, you know, consumer slowdown or
software names that are up for potential disruption from this AI that's being built out.
So I think the market's been extremely logical. And another thing with IGV, for example,
like IGV, hopefully it's bottomed. But if you think about what the largest weights are in IGV
right now, it's Microsoft, Oracle, Palantir, and all of those stocks look awful.
And is it possible that they bought them?
Sure.
But there's a decent chance that Microsoft could take another leg lower.
I think Palantir could take another leg lower too.
It's overvalued.
And it's not to say it's not an amazing business.
It is.
But go look at the momentum leaders like the Apple Evans and all that.
They're slicing through 200 days and they look like they're dropping like a rock.
So those can go lower.
That can cause the IGV to go lower because there's such big weightings there.
And that could cause other software names, even though they're not in the same predicament,
they're much lower value.
I'm just saying there's like a factor bet here, right?
There's a momentum factor that's an issue.
There's a software factor that's an issue. There's a software factor that's an issue.
And those are the places where the market's being very weak right now.
So am I like bearish in video?
No, how could you be, right?
Like they're probably gonna be the first company to 10 trillion. And probably, I would say definitely in this cycle.
But in the near term, the weighting is too big for tech as a whole from the big CapEx spenders.
And I think those stocks are basically, I don't want to say dead money, but basically dead money.
I'm not bearish on them, but you can tell from the buying pressure.
People aren't allocating to Amazon.
They're not allocating to Microsoft.
They're not really buying Meta either.
There's just too much CapEx investment there.
Maybe Google is the only one because they have Gemini and their own TPU and blah, blah.
So that one seemed continued decent buying, but they have yet to prove their ROI, whereas
I think Google maybe is starting to show that.
So that's why it's separated itself.
But yeah, a good NVIDIA report could mean NVIDIA can do well, but it doesn't mean that the Qs are going to show that. So that's why it separated itself. But yeah, a good NVIDIA report
could mean NVIDIA can do well,
but it doesn't mean that the Qs are going to do well.
It's not going to have enough to outweigh
the drag on that index.
And Qs do bad.
They tread water.
That means SPY treads water,
but the RSP on the other end
is pulling it up from all the different sectors.
So it's kind of a wash at the index level.
You could have a year where you just see literally like sideways to slightly up chop in the index.
Queues are dragging it down.
All the other industries are working.
But eventually if you start catching that bid on the queues and tech, everyone starts
rushing back in.
Okay, like this has gone too far.
Then you get a big time upside in the SPY.
But yeah, you need to see that bid come back to tech and given the current circumstance,
it's very logical selling. Big, huge CapEx increases. I mean, when we saw that Google
number going from 120 estimate to 185, it's huge, Amazon going from 140 to 200,
like these are huge numbers.
So, I mean, as an investor of a business,
do you really want to see them use most,
more than all of their cashflow towards this?
I mean, we get it.
You know, it's like a race for a thing,
but you also don't need to be along for the ride
for them to prove out if this investment
is going to be a good one.
I think it will be, but I think maybe some people will wait and that's why there is no
bid right now on some of those stocks that are investing so much
stock talk can i circle it back over to you um back on these robin hood numbers if there's
anything that was interesting
for you there's any other news or earnings that have come out here was there any part of this
no I don't think centrist I don't think centrist even came out but yeah the Robin Hood numbers
are pretty good I mean they're missed first expectations which is why the stock is getting
killed um but I think centrist numbers did just come out hold on give me a couple seconds let
me look at the centrist numbers. I'm just looking right here.
I see that they had a decline in monthly active users,
which is, you know,
not good. Yeah.
That's EPS missed on centrist.
1.79 versus 1.28.
35% decline in earnings.
That could be potentially because of, you know,
crypto and other things.
But also, if their active users are down, that's not great.
They also missed street expectations on revenue.
I mean, there's a lot of things.
I mean, again, I agree with you that it's a good quarter,
but it definitely was not a stellar quarter.
And we know that, you know, especially in tech and anything around crypto, if you don't knock the cover off the ball and you don't beat expectations, it's tough to get a pop on earnings calls like that.
You know, I want to say something because Stock Talk absolutely nailed it. If any of you guys were on these spaces late last year,
how many times did he say,
I am transitioning my new positions to things that are far more reasonably valued?
Like he said that a hundred times.
I totally agree with that.
I mean, I generally go from a fundamental valuation first.
I need to have a palatable valuation,
but he transitioned to that at a at a like
perfect timing so kudos to you brother i've been i've been stealing that from him too
all over the place like uh growth at a value price i i loved it i i remember him saying that a lot
yeah i mean those have been the best performing names in my portfolio i mean most of the names
that have gone down for me this year have been names i've owned for a long time you know um so most of my recent positions in terms
of stuff that i've bought recently has done pretty well and i would say i owe a lot of my performance
to to that pivot that i made i mean i really started that pivot last year in um in october
and that was kind of the right time because November and December, there was a brutal
momentum sell-off that I was able to dodge because of that. So yeah, I mean, I'm still have that
focus. I'm still kind of more focused on fundamentals than I normally am, but, um,
it's supposed to check all my boxes. Like even when I'm, even when I'm pivoting to say like,
oh, I'm, I'm, I'm looking for more reasonably priced names, all that's doing is just changing the dial on my fundamental analysis side.
It's not changing the thematic relevance or the technical side.
Those boxes still have to be checked for me as well.
So, yeah, I just try to find stocks that are fitting in that categorization.
And basically the only difference between what I'm doing now versus what I was doing,
you know, at the end of 23, or let's say, or the beginning of 24 is that there's, I'm more strict
about the valuations here, because if you go through any AI-related sector or even some non-AI-related sectors, but you go through the names, like you're talking about stocks trading at 20, 30, 40 times sales, you know, 70, 80, 90p.
Like, I can't buy a stock like that and just hold it and not expect downside.
I mean, it's really, really hard for stocks like that to keep going
up in perpetuity. You have to just absolutely ace and crush results every single time. And
that just doesn't happen. You can't do it every single quarter. So yeah, I am trying to
keep a little bit more attention to valuation in this environment.
So let me pose a question to you on that,
and you don't have to give me a definitive answer.
I'm just curious your thoughts.
So if you're looking at something like a Coinbase, right,
that's at a PE of about 14, right?
If you look at something like an NVIDIA, it's at 46, right? So I love the value at a growth at a value price.
But in a situation like that, my thing is stick NVIDIA, invest NVIDIA.
I got to pause you there because there's just a lot of nuance to the Coinbase PE number.
It's like not even a number.
Absolutely. That's what I'm saying.
Yeah, totally.
That's why I wanted to bring that up.
Like, for example, if you look at the last 12 months,
a lot of their EPS probably had,
this is a new accounting rule,
but the gain on assets held for investment,
so a lot of their digital currencies
ended up coming in at at like, I don't
know, like $10 of EPS random quarters and stuff like that because crypto went up so much. So they
have yet to report the very bad quarter. That's one thing to note. Actually, if anything, their
EPS is going to be so deeply negative in Q4, it might be a great short. Actually, you've given me
a great idea. I may looking into short and Coinbase here.
Also, just like HUD, it's very cyclical to speculation and the retail investor.
If crypto is down, then nobody wants to open their app.
So their activity is probably way down.
And I can't imagine they're going to give any sort of good guidance for Q1.
So it's a very cyclical business.
Now it's being affected by accounting rules. I think the Q1 will be such bad EPS that the price to earnings will probably go from 14 to like 40.
And I don't think you should be surprised if you see that.
So, you know, trading on trailing numbers is no good versus Nvidia, which I'm actually
surprised to hear it's at 46 times earnings.
I'm sure forward is probably closer to 20.
So you have a situation where Coinbase is,
if you look at trailing numbers, sure,
but we don't care about trailing numbers.
We think about forward numbers.
And Coinbase is forward EPS.
Forward PE is probably like 40.
And NVIDIA's forward PE is probably 20.
So you got to skate where the puck is going.
Love that. Love that.
Love that.
Yeah, I have no interest
in Coinbase at all.
I mean, that chart is not...
I mean, I have an interest
in shorting it now.
Yeah, the chart's
not attractive at all.
I also, I mean,
I don't like the idea that it's basically, I mean,
just a Robinhood with more of an overt crypto focus
because I don't even want crypto exposure.
Dude, that thing looks like it's going to break.
You're sitting at the lows of August 24,
which is basically Yenmageddon,
your tariff tantrum,
and then now you're right here,
and it's making an H pattern,
and it's testing that support for the third time.
This thing is probably going to break below.
It's probably going to be sub-$100.
I wouldn't be surprised.
Yeah, and then if you look at NVIDIA,
it looks like it's been consolidating,
going choppy sideways since November.
To me, that looks like the exact opposite and that's the reason
why i bring it up it looks to me like it could potentially again sentiment is so bad right now
around a lot of different things but it looks like it could potentially uh pop on earnings which it
hasn't done in a long time and it's just a matter of whether or not, you know, people rotate out of it and, and, and, you know, sell that pop or whether it, you know, has another leg up.
So I do want to jump in.
We got two minutes until Robin hoods or news call starts.
And we also have a conversation here starting at the top of the hour.
I want to talk about cybersecurity.
We'll see what stuff is going on.
I am literally about to ask Vlad a question in the second half of the uh the hour i want to know
what you guys think i should ask i've also cared like literally i'm going to go on the earnest
call and ask a question live to him so i normally like to ask like what would you ask the person
but uh now i'm asking actually asking for thoughts if people down below want to want to tell me what
they think i should ask but i would i would i would wonder about the monthly active daily users and what
what they're seeing and and is there a trend there what if it was saying something like uh
let's assume other analysts are going to ask the tough questions
stock talk what do you think i should ask you're saying you want to ask a softball
no i just i don't want to ask a softball?
No, I just want I don't want to ask about numbers and stuff.
I care more about the product itself, honestly.
Ask about the
credit card. I could ask about the credit
card with the rollout. They switched it to banking.
Stock talk, do you want me to ask the question?
You can ask the MAU question in a nice way.
Alright.
Just say like,
hey, any insight
into your slowdown in MAUs?
You don't have to ask it in a pointed way.
It doesn't have to be like a mean question.
Or just ask
if you want to be nice,
you just ask about the credit card,
ask about the banking rollout the new tax stuff just let him talk about
features I don't Trump's making a lot of comments on Fox business right now by
the way the wonderful news all right I want to shift the conversation here Paul
was there any topics that you or themes that you wanted to talk
about here specifically? Or maybe we did have Cloudflare earnings, the cybersecurity, good
data to dig in a little deeper. I mean, the one thing that has been very topical with investors
on our end is humanoid robotics. And if you look at that, like, you know, specifically bot,
which is our ETF, you're getting a lot of different names that you don't get in some of these broader indexes.
And they're not being impacted the same way.
You know, I think I've spoken about this before.
We have a lot of the humanoid robotic companies that we're in.
Again, you have to be interested in investing internationally.
But a lot of those names are in South Korea.
A lot of those names are in China, a big portion of the US, some in Canada, and some in Japan. And it's just a
different investment stream. And while we're having a lot of trouble in a lot of other places,
I looked at the numbers yesterday, year to date, that ETF was up 30 plus percent. So it tells me
that there's no correlation to what's going on in the rest of the
technology space and that it's performing at a high level. So we're seeing a ton of interest,
a ton of inquiries in that ETF. It's growing pretty rapidly. And not only are we seeing those
inquiries in the States, but literally i've been on calls and i have another
one tonight uh in thailand with asset managers who are looking to allocate to it so if you haven't
been thinking about humanoid robotics and when i say that it's not just like tesla's in the
portfolio but it's not one of the top 10 holdings um nvidia's in the top 10 holding i think it's
number 10 right now but there are lots of different names that you might not have access to on your own that are in that portfolio that are big in the humanoid robotics space that are doing well and seem to have very little correlation to what's happening in the tech space in the United States.
I think that is a good start.
We're going to talk humanoid robots. We're going to talk
cybersecurity. I'm excited for this conversation. I got a quick read-off that I want to do here,
a quick disclaimer before we get into it so we can talk a little bit more ticker-specific. But
as we're talking about tickers, ETFs, everything like that, investors should carefully consider
a fund's investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses before investing.
A fund's prospectus and summary prospectus contain this and other information about the
themes, ETFs, from leverage shares. To obtain a fund's prospectus and key information documents,
visit the themesetfs.com website, themesetfs.com website. A fund's prospectus and key information
should be read carefully before
investing. We're excited to be working with the leverage shares team with the themes ETFs team.
We appreciate Paul for being a part of this last conversation. And I am looking forward to this
one talking a little bit about cybersecurity, talking a little bit about humanoid robotics as
well. Stock talk. Is before i i prompt you on
some more specific stuff i know you prefer that just humanoid robotics in general robotics in
general i know obviously tesla over the last couple weeks they're making some big stuff big
news with them shutting down their uh lines for the x and the yes. Nope, yep, X and the S. And changing it over
to B for the Optimus
lineup. They're kind of talking about it being
next year. What was it, VIAVI
or Aerowayron? No, definitely not Aerowayron.
VIAVI, were they the ones who were linked
with one of the
Synaptics? I apologize.
Thank you for that correction.
I remember us talking about that yesterday.
So it is actually an interesting time in humanoid robotics where maybe this thing is scaling within the next years and not decades, not five years, that type of thing.
But I'm curious to the general thoughts.
There's been any new information or any stuff that we've seen?
No, there's not really new information.
I mean, it's probably sooner than people think it is, I think.
I think you'll probably see these programs scale within the next two years.
Most of the major robotics companies, humanoid robotics companies,
Tesla, Figure, Aptronics, the initiatives that are at Amazon,
all of them have prototypes built already.
But prototypes are not the hard part manufacturing and skills are part
and so i think you'll start seeing some of that manufacturing go online next year
um it's really about getting costs down enough to making it making it a viable commercial product
which i don't think we're close to yet. It's going to take months of tooling,
maybe even years of tooling. So, you know, you may have to push that timeline out even another year,
but I think optimistically you start seeing initial early production next year.
At least for Tesla, you know, probably also for figure, probably also for Amazon. And then after that, you'll start
seeing some differentiation in terms of who can move faster. But we are sort of, proverbially
speaking, around the corner, I think, from a big wave in robotics. I mean, the only thing that's
really penetrated nationally has been food delivery robotics. That's been like the big national penetrator in the last two years.
Most major cities have either AV ride autonomous, uh, food delivery.
That's what we have in Dallas, which is owned by Nebius or, um, serve robotics, uh, autonomous
delivery, which I think they operate in New York, LA, a few other cities.
So it's
really them two that are operating with Uber Eats right now, Nebius and Serve, but that'll expand
pretty rapidly, I think, into other kinds of robotics. Now, it's going to be tricky because
you need to find something that's general purpose use case if you want to scale it rapidly. Like
there's specialized robotics that are going into industrial settings and warehousing settings,
but those aren't going to be sold to everyone.
Those are very, very specialized use case robots.
So I think the thing that's attractive about humanoids is that they purport to be general use case robotics.
You can use them for a lot of things.
And that's what I think makes that opportunity the most exciting and scalable because you don't
need to have a specialized robot arm that does a very very specific task you know you ideally have
a humanoid that can do many tasks and can be used across many different types of businesses so
that's really what we're going for I think not like anyone in particular but I think the
industry that's what I think they're going for and so yeah it should be a
pretty exciting time there's gonna be a lot of opera investment opportunity
around it I think not just in the OEMs but in the supply chain partners you
know synaptics they do it on device inference that's why they're being linked
here they also do you know sensor modalities and things like that that You know, Synaptics, they do it on-device inference. That's why they're being linked here.
They also do, you know, sensor modalities and things like that
that can be put into these robots for when they need to do touch reception,
when they need to do processing on the actual device,
aka on the actual robot.
All of that becomes relevant.
So there's going to be a lot of supply chain winners, I think.
There's going to be a lot of OEM winners.
But I do really do think a big robotic surge is just around the corner.
I think it's the next phase of this whole AI thing.
Paul, I'm curious if you have any thoughts off of that.
I know you kind of gave your thoughts off the start.
And obviously if anyone wants to look,
let me get some stuff pinned up in the next above for BOTT.
Yeah.
There's so many places where this is going to impact people's lives.
And from a corporate standpoint, factory automation and equipment,
general processors, specialized semiconductors,
industrial machine parts,
support equipment, and then you take that all and you take it to the humanoid robotics side.
And, you know, it stems anywhere from, like, you know, what you can have in your home to elderly care to so many different things that this is, you know, potentially going to impact. And again,
like, it's not just, you know,, like it's funny, some of the best
investments are the things that sneak up on you. And when we look at the returns on this, again,
number one, I really like the fact that it is, you know, many companies that people don't even
really know about. And that's based on, you know, our index selection. This is a passive strategy. We work with Solactive.
We help them put together the specific criteria for the index
because we thought it was important to,
somebody said skate to where the puck is going.
We think this is critical to where the puck is going.
And so we're excited about the names that are in here.
Also, again, the different return streams out of South Korea, out of China,
large component to the US as well, some in Canada, some in Japan. When you look at the
cumulative return streams, I said we were up 30%. I just looked at the website right now to just
check in. Year-to-date, it's up 35%. That's what's showing on the website. When you go down and take a look from a longer-term perspective, this isn't a new return stream.
Over the past six months, up 78%.
Over the past year, up 108%.
Since inception, the CTF's up 139%.
So again, it's a super high-growth marketplace where they're just starting to scratch the surface.
And, again, I think what's important to know is when we pick a theme, you know, we want to make sure that it is obviously low management fees.
That's part of our ethos.
But then we want to make sure it's a pure play.
And we think this is one of the purest plays out there in high growth areas that not are going to grow for a year or two or three, but well into the future. This is just a space
that we're really excited about. And we're seeing more and more interest, like I said,
both from advisors, institutional investors, and potentially some of the retail space now
starting to get involved as well. So there are two tweets pinned up in the nest above.
Shows the holding, shows a bunch of the other ETFs.
There's a tweet pinned down below in that purple 23
in the bottom right of your screen,
which has a link to the website.
You can go in and find that.
Stock Talk, can I ask you,
as we're talking about humanoid robotics here,
and this theme is very clearly international,
and maybe a Tesla leading the way,
Optimus is leading the way.
I actually don't fully know how the whole stuff is.
But I imagine that this is a pretty international theme.
I'm curious your thoughts on that.
A lot of these areas, a lot of the AI part of it is a very U.S. part of the world and part of the conversation.
But humanoid robotics seems to be one that other parts of the world is equal on.
I won't say ahead, but are actually competing with the us on which is
interesting yeah i mean china obviously is going to be competitive here because
they can make things cheaply you know like when we when you looked at like the debut of the whole
ai era a couple years ago um it was pretty obvious the u.s was going to take take the lead because
the premier chip design firms in the world are all american and the premier software firms in
the world are all american all of them and when it comes to chip manufacturing, TSM, who is the big boy, does 70% of their business with the United States.
So anyone with an inkling of knowledge about the semiconductor industry or the software industry knew that America was going to be the leader in AI when the AI era started.
That was without question.
I mean, China was not going to be able to compete with us just because of the size of our software companies and our chip design companies.
Now, China's obviously since then covered a lot of ground on both the software side and the chip design side and the GPU hardware side.
They've closed a lot of that gap, not all of it, but a lot of it.
lot of it, I would still argue the United States is leading in AI software. But China has, as they
I would still argue the United States is leading in AI software.
always do, rapidly progressed. They're very good at mimicking American technology, and they've done
that this time too. Now, on the robotics front, it's a little bit different because they have an
advantage over us in that category, which is the ability to manufacture at scale cheaply, which we
cannot do. And so they're leveraging that advantage when it comes to robots.
And I think that will position them to be an early leader in robots.
So, yeah, it's very much an international theme.
And China has a lot of unique advantages when it comes to producing robots
and producing drones and producing basically any other hardware that we don't have.
And so that is something that
the United States needs to figure out pretty rapidly. You know, it's going to take companies
like Tesla and Amazon and others who have manufacturing capacity and have scale to
divert some of that capacity to robots. It's going to require that because in this country,
that stuff gets done by private industry, not by the government.
You know, we're not a communist dictatorship like China or Russia.
So you can't, we can't just authoritatively assign
industrial capacity to certain tasks.
In China, they can do that.
And so here, the leaders of American companies
are going to have to make those choices. And Elon already said that he's closing down
Model S and X capacity to do that. I imagine when Amazon's humanoid programs are ready to go,
they will develop some sort of manufacturing capacity as well, and they can do so pretty
rapidly. Figure, although they've been been in the public eye about their products,
I would say is probably lacking in that department in terms of their ability to manufacture at
tremendous scale. But they'll look to solve that problem too in the next few years. So
it's going to require a lot of American companies sort of putting their head down and building
capacity if we want to even be remotely
competitive in the amount of robots we can produce. But yeah, it brings China into the
fold, certainly. And it brings other nations into the fold, too. But I would say primarily China.
Yeah, I mean, China is going to be the big competitor here to us when it comes to robots.
when it comes to robots.
Paul, I feel like a lot of the conversations
we're having here are US-centric.
Not all of them.
G-Cib, a few of the other ones.
I'm curious on this humanoid or robotic one,
how this changes and is different
than some of the other industries.
If it's more international, more China-led,
maybe than some of the other ones that we talk on here a lot? So it's more China-led, it's more international, more China-led maybe than some of the other
ones that we talk on here a lot?
So it's more China-led.
It's more South Korea-led, which, again, very high-tech, great at manufacturing, so on and
so forth.
And that's why I think you see that name.
I mean, it's real simple.
If you want to go down the country breakdown of it, the largest country that is showing up.
And again, we don't have any bias towards one country or another.
It's simply based on the criteria of the index and where the stock selection lies.
But if you do look at the country-specific breakdown, what you'll find is Korea leads
the way at 33% of the portfolio. You could say China, because again, I don't know why we do this. We still split China and Hong Kong, but that would come in sort of equal to Korea at 33%, and then another 27% in the US. So it's a good mix across those countries making up the majority of the portfolio.
But yeah, it's definitely an international blend. And it's a good way to get some
foreign exposure to these technologies that are being built in a very sophisticated manner, very efficient manner,
very high-tech manner outside of the US. But again, you're still going to get
companies like Tesla in it. You're still going to get companies like NVIDIA in it,
but they are not the highest percentage weight in it. NVIDIA is in the top 10 holdings, but Tesla is not.
And again, I think a lot of times when we're investing in tech, there's too much overlap.
I think the thing that is interesting to advisors and investors is that they're getting this return stream without the overlap that they're getting in their broader indexes and in some of their other positions.
Again, tweets pinned up in the nest above,
has some of the largest holdings.
You guys can go and dig in.
Best place is the website.
I want to ask you about cybersecurity.
You guys have chosen a couple sectors to create products and ETFs around.
One of them is cybersecurity.
The ticker of the ETF that you guys have is SPAM.
SPAM is the ticker there.
Always a great one.
But can you tell me why this is one of the sectors that you guys chose to make a product around?
This one is a very different makeup here, SPAM.
It's 86% in the US.
Yeah, and it's one of the original thematic ETFs that we launched when we launched the
firm back in December of 2022.
I think the interesting takeaway from here is it is a lot of, you know, it's a highly
US percentage of companies.
And I think that's just, again, based on the criteria of the index.
We're not picking by country. We're picking by security based on that index. But I think the
interesting thing about this is as bad as some of the largest names in cyber and in software have
been beaten up, while the overall return on this is negative year
to date, it's only down 2%.
So for people that are looking to get exposure to cybersecurity, it's an excellent way.
It's not overly diversified.
There's only 30-something names, I think maybe like 39 names inside of the portfolio.
39 names inside of the portfolio. I could give you that exact number in a minute.
I could give you that exact number in a minute.
But it's an interesting way to sort of diversify risk, but also capture what's going on in cyber.
And you say, like, why cyber? Again, we like to go where the investment is going,
and we like to be in high growth areas, but also make sure that some of these portfolios
can be defensive
in times where things aren't going well.
We like cybersecurity because it's number one, it's necessary.
Every bit of information is, you know, somewhere in the cloud somewhere and it needs to be
protected.
Whether you're a financial company, whether you're a country that's concerned about important information that's traveling electronically,
doctor's office, no matter what it is, you need to protect your client's data or your patient's
data, so on and so forth. And even from a defense perspective, like attacks, we think about attacks,
we think about bombs, we think about drones, we think about drones, we think about missiles,
we think about all that stuff.
But so much can be done from a cyber perspective.
So if you were to put spending from governments in order, you might say, well, defense spending
is number one.
This even gets a sleeve of that.
Number two, it's definitely cyber.
And when you look at it from a corporate perspective,
even in downturns, when budgets get slashed and cut,
one of the things that always remains at a very high level
is spending into cybersecurity
because there's so much valuable information
that needs to be protected
and so many people are trying to attack that information
on a regular basis.
So we like this space. We know software has been beaten up, that it's protected and so many people are trying to attack that information on a regular basis so
we like this space we know software has been beaten up but again if you properly diversify
and have the right criteria you can withstand that uh and not be destroyed we talked a little
bit about in the opposite direction with some of the broader indexes right now that potentially
you want to sort of have more high conviction.
This is a high conviction portfolio.
Again, 39 names, I believe, in the entire portfolio, yet it's diversified enough so
that you're not suffering the significant losses if you pick the wrong horse in the
race.
So that's kind of why we like it.
I just pinned up in the nest above the largest holding,
so you guys can go in and see that.
But Stock Talk, we've had some talks about cybersecurity
a little bit here.
For me, and Paul, I want to come back with this.
You kind of explained it a little bit there.
But cybersecurity to me is maybe a little bit of an opaque thing
where it's just, you know, it's just a thing you do.
I don't know about the subsectors and the parts of it,
maybe even the suppliers.
I know you like to find the kind of winner agnostic type names,
and I'm sure that is in this industry as well.
I'm curious if there are specific parts of cybersecurity
that are more interesting for you than others, Stock Talk.
My issue with cybersecurity is all the stocks are just way too expensive for my taste so
that's always what i've struggled with um there are a handful of names that are less
what's the term i'm looking for um that are not as pure play on cyber security in other words
they have other components of their business that you know the stocks are a little cheaper
like one of the names that i used to own was NetScout Systems, NTCT, which is actually still a cheap stock.
But the reason I liked that one, I owned it last year was because A, it was cheap and B, it didn't have a cybersecurity component.
So, yeah, my issue has always been the valuations.
And then that's still my issue with cybersecurity names.
I mean, many of them are growing very quickly. So you could argue they do justify their valuations, but it's just my issue with cybersecurity names i mean many of them are
growing very quickly so you could argue they do justify their valuations but it's just hard for
me to hold them and you know a lot of times that you have these massive negative earnings reactions
minus 15 minus 16 percent on cybersecurity names that's precisely the reason why you see those
reactions because because they trade kind of at the edge of expectation when it comes to their
valuation so i think cybersecurity is a hugely important thing. I don't think it's going anywhere. I think the industry
is only going to grow. Maybe buying an ETF might be a better approach for somebody like me who
doesn't like the valuations of individual names. But I'm not overtly concerned with getting
cybersecurity's exposure in my portfolio at this time.
It's not like something that's at the top of my priority list, but I am bullish on cybersecurity.
So I guess that's a bit of a non-answer to say I like cybersecurity.
I'm bullish on the industry.
I just think the individual stocks are expensive.
And, you know, I'm an individual stock guy.
I don't really do ETFs.
So for me, that is kind of an inhibiting factor that kind of prevents me
from getting exposure because, um, yeah, it just doesn't check all my boxes, but I mean, yeah,
I'm very bullish on cybersecurity. I have nothing bad to say about the trend in cybersecurity. It's,
it's, it's up and there's going to seem to be more adoption for cybersecurity,
more use of cybersecurity, more specialized AI native
cybersecurity platforms. That's all going to happen. So I'm bullish on the industry. I just
struggle to build conviction on any of the individual stocks.
Stock Talk, you are so similar to all the conversations that we have around right now.
So many people are interested in it. They know that they potentially want some exposure down
the line, and they're just trying to figure out when the right time to get in it.
I think with everything that's happened with software and tech right now getting beat up,
it's like a sticking point for them.
But what you just said is what we hear a lot,
and potentially just a matter of time before people start to dip in,
but we haven't seen sort of mass adoption yet.
I am curious, though, Stock Talk,
is there like parts of it?
If every stock, I like my tweet,
if every stock was down 20% tomorrow
and nothing changed, what would you buy?
Obviously not that exact thing,
but are there, as you're doing your research,
segments that you're looking into
a little bit more than others?
Are there cybersecurity segments I'm looking into more?
I don't even know if that's a thing.
But what are you talking about?
You mean in general?
Yeah, just so a lot of, when you say industries,
there's parts of industries.
I imagine there's parts of the cybersecurity industry.
When we were talking about sportsbooks, you were interested in the data providers.
I wonder if there's a part of the cybersecurity angle industry that you are more interested in.
I know you just kind of gave your whole thoughts there on the valuations of them that are a little bit more into it.
Because one of the names on here, by the way, is Nebius.
Just so we're throwing it out there. I't really classify them as a cyber security name i
mean sure i mean they have components of cyber security in their business but
i wouldn't classify them as a cyber security name um are there any particular cyber security
stocks that i'm like overtly interested in not really not. Not really. There's nothing I can single out for you to say, like,
I really, really like that name.
I mean, I've looked at Tannibal Holdings, TNB several times,
tried to wrap my mind around the valuation.
I've looked at Rubric, RBRK.
I mentioned NetScout Systems, NTCT.
I'm trying to off the top of my head, think of it.
Oh, I've looked at BlackBerry.
I've looked at, obviously, I've looked at CrowdStrike,
which is, you know, a big boy.
I've looked at them before.
I've looked at Okta.
I've looked at CyberArk.
I've looked at a lot of cybersecurity names
trying to build conviction.
I think the one that, in my screenings,
that came up recently was Checkpoint. But again, I couldn't build
conviction on the valuation. So yeah, it's just an area where I like it. I like the idea of it.
I just, there's no individual stocks that make me say, Oh my God, I really need to own that.
And, you know, that could be just a function of me needing more information,
or me needing to learn more about the industry to build conviction. That could be the reason for
that. And so, you know, maybe I'll just go back to the drawing board at some point and see if
there's anything that, you know, tickles my fancy when it comes to those individual names. But
there are some that I think are relatively cheap that do deserve some attention. And then there's anything that tickles my fancy when it comes to those individual names. But there are some that I think are relatively cheap that do deserve some attention.
And then there's others that are really, really expensive.
So some of those names I mentioned, I think, are somewhat reasonably priced.
And a lot of the other names are not.
You know, even like CyberArk, I was looking at that last week, trades at 100p.
You know, it's like, is it growing fast?
Yeah.
But when you buy stocks at that valuation, they have one bad quarter.
They're going to go down 20%.
And so I just don't like putting myself in that position to realize those type of moves.
I would rather put myself in a position where I know the stock is cheap,
the expectations are not too high, and then I can navigate around that. I don't like buying
into stocks where the expectations are super high, the valuation is super high, and everything has
to go perfectly for you to make money. That's not really a consistent way to make money as a stock
picker, in my opinion, in markets. And so I You know, I, I wait for there to be signs of
stabilization signs of, you know, the chart improving. And then I, I take a look at those
names. So yeah, I mean, I think cannibal net scout checkpoint are all rubric are all like
relatively reasonably priced.
But are they jumping off the page to me as something that I need to buy right now?
So that's kind of where I'm at.
I'm at, I'm in a, I'm in a, I like the theme.
I don't like the stocks.
That's kind of where I'm at with cybersecurity.
Hey guys, I just wanted to say thanks for having me on and for talking through all this stuff.
And unfortunately I have to take a quick bounce here but uh really love working with you guys love the audience and
thanks for giving uh being such great partner with themes ets and leverage share so i just
wanted to say that before i have to bounce oh really appreciate you for joining in on these
conversation spaces as always we got to talk a little bit about some of these etfs today and
then obviously paul sharing his knowledge throughout here.
That LeverShare's team is really fantastic.
A lot of really great products.
I just pinned up in the nest above that ETF website that we've been talking about here
that you guys could go in and do more of your information into.
So Paul, really do appreciate you for joining in here.
Everyone should make sure that you are following all of the speakers.
Make sure you are following the speakers.
Shout out to Omar and Sam down below below both great guys both wonderful guys and now i need to figure
out what am i going to ask uh what am i going to ask vlad i think i'm going to ask him something
about robinhood social and investor relations i could ask about the international rollout
i don't necessarily want to ask about monthly active users.
Stock talk.
We could just end the space.
Hey,
also stock talk.
I texted you a link.
Can you please fill that out for me?
Oh yeah.
I got you.
Get that done today.
Yeah.
We might be having some in person events,
a cool little thing coming up soon.
So get excited.
But yeah, I think I'm going to ask,
Sam, what do you think I should ask Vlad
on the earnings call? I think I'm going to ask about
Robin Hood Social
right now, but we'll see.
Ooh, that would be an interesting one.
I haven't taken a look at earnings yet.
I see it down, but I haven't taken a look at it.
People want to know about international launch.
All right.
I appreciate you all.
Yeah, have a great one, team.
Make sure you are following the speakers if there's anything anyone
wants to close with you can but yeah i gotta line up this question
peace Peace.
