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Sanctum Forecast #11: AdraSOL Launch, Bitcoin Yield LST?, CLOUD-004 Futarchy Fail
Recorded: April 2, 2025 Duration: 1:02:23Space Recording
Short Summary
Adrastia's evolution with new staking products and its rapid growth in TVL highlight significant project developments. The success of Camino vaults and potential partnerships with Zeus indicate strong trends in DeFi yield opportunities and strategic collaborations. The increase in Futarki voters shows growing community engagement, while the failure of the Sanctum mobile app proposal suggests challenges in gaining support for new initiatives.
Full Transcription
Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, boys and girls, clouds of all ages, welcome to the Sanctum Forecast,
the most entertaining and lively stream in crypto today. My name is Eno. I will be your host. I am the
chief vibes officer over at Sanctum. If you've attended this forecast before, you might be
wondering what the hell this thing is. I had a custom mic made, so I'm actually really excited
about this. My first time using it. So yeah, we have a lot of things to cover today. And why are we here? Well, you might notice that I'm
speaking a little bit more of a lower volume. It's because there are people sleeping in this house,
and I can't be a complete maniac like I usually am. But trust me, the vibes are still very,
very high. So we're here to talk about all things in the Sanctosphere. So what is the Sanctosphere?
Well, at the Sanctosphere, we talk about the most bullish news, right? We talk about the most delightful products that are
being built in crypto. And of course, we talk about the Sanctum governance machine, right?
How do we create high quality economic proposals that add value to cloud as well as Sanctum?
And of course, we're doing it all with the most earnest CloudFam. I already see one of my favorite members of the CloudFam, Foag Ross. Hey, buddy. How are you? He always loves to type this. Let's effing cloud. Always good to see you, brother. And also, iCloud you too.
big family. And trust me, we have a lot of things to talk about this week. And just before we start,
we definitely have some ground rules, some house rules. Oh, Danica, GM Cloud fam, it's always good
to see you. Good, good, good. So the house rules are as such. Number one, we need you to spam the
chat, right? This is no fun if everyone just stays quiet in the chat. Number two, we need to think
long term, right? A lot of people are obsessed with short term price action. And I understand why, you know, it's obviously the thing that you're paying attention to on most days. But the point being is that like, you can have the most fun if you pivot more towards thinking about the mid to long term, right? Like, how are we actually adding value to the ecosystem? And that is infinitely more fun than obsessing over price action.
that is infinitely more fun than obsessing over price action. Number three, need you to be
thoughtful and kind. All right. There's already so much negative energy out there in the space,
like there's no reason for us to be contributing to all the noise. We need more signal. And last
but not least, I really want you to have a good time. So we're going to get started with this
forecast. And of course, public service announcement, we have 50 USDC up for grabs for the best forecast threads that are written on X.
And this week's winner is Nick.
I'm going to bring you on stage real quick.
Three, two, one.
Hey, Nick.
You want to air bongo, air drums?
You know, this week's winner is Crypto John.
Congratulations, Crypto John. Congratulations, Crypto John. I mean, look, we're just really, really excited
that you keep writing these threads seriously. You've been writing them for weeks. And so like,
we just want to acknowledge like how consistent you've been and how much energy you've put into
writing these threads. And it was another banger this week. If you scan this QR code, then you can
see some of Crypto John's work and see like why we picked his thread um was it the most liked out of all the submissions no right but that's not
really what was important what was important was the consistent effort and actually the quality of
these threads have been including it have been improving week on week wouldn't you agree nick
yeah it has been great and yeah i really do see a lot of consistency as well.
And the quality has been improved.
So yeah, if you need help, if you need like,
you can just ask me for like feedbacks and stuff.
I occasionally do that in my DMs.
So if you do not know about that.
So if you want the right thread and you
feel difficult in doing so, yeah, my DMs are open.
Just ask me anything that you,
any help that you want to request for and I'll get you, I'll get it done for you. And yeah,
you can create threads easily and win the 50 USDC weekly prize. And we also have a secret chat for all people who are interested in writing high quality threads. Not only do we provide timestamps,
but we also provide the raw footage of the recordings
so that you can create your own content with ease. So, I mean, it's really not that hard to
write a Sanctum Forecast thread. Just need a little bit of elbow grease and we'll put you
inside of the secret chat. Okay. Well, Nick, we'll be bringing you back on, but thank you so much
for keeping an eye out on all the lovely forecast thread writers of the week.
But, you know, it's not just Crypto John.
Like we have some honorable mentions.
Of course, the man, the myth, the legend, Molu.
He's also working with Jupiter.
That guy has his hands in a lot of pies.
We also have Wisdom, who was a previous thread winner as well.
And Nenye, you know, I hope you keep writing.
You know, you've been writing really high quality threads. So thank you so much for keeping thread winner as well. And Nenye, you know, I hope you keep writing, you know, you've been writing really high quality threads.
So thank you so much for keeping it consistent as well.
For today's agenda, you guys already know the drill.
Of course, we have another very, very special guest.
So we're going to be speaking with a very close friend of mine
for a big warm welcome.
Now, I'm not going to spoil it just yet.
And after a big warm welcome,
we're going to be talking about all the latest and greatest updates um to the sanctosphere latest product what's going on with staking etc etc and
fun turkey holy um so there's a lot of stuff that happened this week so uh we want to give you um
the team's point of view about like where we're going with cloud 004 i'm not going to spoil it
but for people who have been paying attention you you already know the results of our last vote. And last but not least, what to expect, right? So of course,
without further ado, I would like to bring onto the stage a very, very close personal friend of
mine. I'm very, very sad because I was supposed to be hanging out with him this week over in
Sri Lanka, but we're going to bring him to the stage three two one bm how are you hello
everyone sending a really warm warm welcome from sri lanka former it's being 30 degrees right now
i'm almost sweating literally every day so happy happy to be on the podcast. Yeah. Could we get W's in the chat for BM?
Like, I met BM.
Where did we first meet?
I feel like I've known you forever now.
It's like you're everywhere.
Same, yeah.
I don't know, man.
Let's say we've met at our previous live somewhere, maybe like a few generations before.
But yeah, so I mean, i've i've seen you around like
we've hung out quite a bit um there's also a funny story that i won't share here but you know exactly
what story i'm talking about yes i'm not sharing it because it's shady i'm sure i'm not sharing it
because it's like it makes us look like douchebags but it's like yeah but it wasn't our fault it was
um we were we were both dragged to a certain store and like we just
had to had to be there um but obviously you know bm you've been working on uh adrastia
how do you pronounce it it's adrastia or adrastia yeah we tend to accept any pronunciation people
even pronounce it like adrastia, Adrastea.
So we have like, I don't know,
maybe over a hundred different pronunciations
we've collected, but the way normal people,
like I would say team say it is like Adrastia.
So that's like the closer to the proper name,
I would say. Yeah. proper pronunciation yeah yeah um so in addition
to being an og in the solana space i mean you've been building uh drastia for how long now
i think we started like since uh 2024 early 20th was like january i would say the initial idea was
early 20th was like january i would say the initial idea was drafted after breakpoint 2023
but this is not my first endeavor on solana i've been since i've been on slain since 2021 and i
brought nfc landing as a first builder on solana so we introduced beautiful ending with the punch of gnomies which was
later acquired by bank's frag team and from that point forward i'm i'm the og builder and enjoyer
of everything happened on solana and even when solana was nine ucc per soul i was still here
and i was enjoying all of the vibes happening so So yeah, I've been there and I'm still
there. Yep. I'm actually kind of loving this new meme. Like you're honestly like we should,
you should be using this everywhere. BMW. Yep. That's so nice.
So could you tell us all about Adrastia? like what exactly is it i mean it's super relevant to
us um because it's related to to restaking but please tell us also you guys have gone through
like a huge evolution of the company over time right so like yeah i would love to kind of hear
about like where you've been and where you're going for adrastia yep initially we started our product as Jupyter in Jupyter ecosystem, building JLP leverage.
However, during the spring last year, we've been approached by Solair,
and we've decided to build liquid restaking on top of Solair as our second product.
And that was a huge success for us.
We've reached 30 million TVL quickly.
We've distributed two airdrops.
So the first airdrop was Sonic and people absolutely loved it.
They received a nice bunch of Sonic.
Sonic price went up.
It went over their calculation on the website, on the airdrop website.
So like literally everyone in the community was super happy.
And then we got a Sola a airdrop as well.
And literally it was like super,
we've brought a lot of value to all of our users.
And on top of that, we also introduced yield trading
with Raytex, which has not token yet.
It's a IFR guys.
We introduced loop scale.
We did the banks multiply yeah i would say you have one entry with
solana or like sonic soul as all you put in our protocol and then you earn multiple airdrops and
engage within multiple defy ecosystem which has not yet distributed the token, right?
So that's really as simple as it is.
And recently we've announced something new with Sanctum,
which is Adresol.
And Adresol comes as our second product
connected with staking and restaking.
Adresol will play more than just LST in terms of the product because we have our own
validator which will be connected also it's an iPhone that we haven't announced yet but we've
received our first delegation within the GT restaking ecosystem and we will be announcing rst as operator within g3 staking ecosystem so
you will be seeing in the future announcement about um fragmetric jita and switchboard
and this all will be connected to address all so huge alpha guys yeah um well first of all
congratulations but there's like a lot to
unpack there right so let's start from the very very beginning just like going back so we can
have full context so number one you were you were you were building on top of jupiter and it was like
jlp leverage or jlp vaults or jlp like a multiply product is that what the original kind of like idea for address deal was. Yep. So I did a initial idea.
We started as JLP multiply,
and this was straight after the announcement of the JLP, right?
So the announcement of the JLP came at the break point 2023.
No one ever like experience yet on Solana,
what is JLP and like how successful it can be.
But we have a vision really early that JLP will not be volatile as much.
And that's why it's quite profitable for the investors to use leverage on JLP.
And without additional, like the risks are minimal for the multiply of the JLP.
And that was our first product that we've launched.
Yeah, right, right. a minimal for the multiply of the jLP and that was our first product that we've launched yeah right right and then that's why your company is is named after one of the moons of jupiter right
like adrastia yeah yeah yeah um but then like you quickly graduated to what has been kind of
your blockbuster product uh which is uh working in connection with sole layerire, right, for restaking.
And you said that you quickly got to like 30 million TVO.
Like, when did you launch that product?
We started our product development during summer last year.
And we were able to win the Klesim hackathon AVS track and literally built our product within I would say two
weeks within the hackathon and this was a crazy experience of working with your
dev, Ina by the way thanks for suggesting me thanks that just me Abby so the cool
story about how everything started so there was a dev working with Ina on ICS.
But when Ina moved away from ICS,
he said like, I have a dev.
Like, oh wow, so I need the dev right now
to build this project for the hackathon.
I'm like, all right, let me try him out.
And we've been grinning like for two weeks nonstop.
And then the result is 30 million TVL.
So it's all so interconnected in
like deepest uh randomness right and like chance of getting specific developer a specific time
which keeps you keeps you building and getting like the first place and then gets the 30 million
tvl and like widely success with the airdrop distributed across uh thousands of users for Sonic
and Salary man it's it's just yeah if we look at like if we're looking this
forward it's like I think like backwards sorry if we look at this like from
summer last year to this point it's it's been like a crazy road yeah yeah I
mean it's it's it's so interesting how life turns out sometimes you know um it's it's been like a crazy road yeah yeah i mean it's it's it's so interesting how life
turns out sometimes you know um it's like you can never predict like how the dots will connect um
and i'm just so glad that we were able to find a home for avi uh and that all this work for you
has been successful um and now obviously you you you you have your own validator um and many
companies attempt to do this uh but a lot of people kind of
prefer, I think, kind of delegating to an existing validator. You have chosen actually to run your
own validator, which is very commendable. And so you've claimed your LST, which is Adrosol.
And so you, and now this latest announcement, which like there aren't full details on because
it's not publicly announced, but seems like you are getting some delegated uh soul from from the jito restaking program um and that's going to be
in combination with uh fragmetric and jito and like who else is involved in that in that program
and and switchboard switchboard switchboard switchboard got it right right it was switchboard
so what is what is switchboard doing over there um are they just providing the oracle price or like what what exactly is which we're doing so uh we need to start off first of
all what is a jittery staking right uh jittery staking provides an infrastructure for uh for
protocols to use security of solana staking right distributors taking and switchboard as an
oracle you need to have access to the distributed layer of validators right so in this way in with
this way they can utilize the stake which can secure the operations and like to secure the whole operations within their product
and provide additional benefits for using this.
And then like in this way, they are part of the so-called NCN.
The first NCN that was launched on Jita was tip router.
And the second NCN coming is switchboard.
I see.
I see.
Understood.
Well, you know, congratulations on, on growing your stake.
That's going to be great for you. And I think you said that in addition to like the traditional LST yield, which would be like
MEV emissions, priority fees, you said there's additional yield or did I, did I misunderstand
that?
Yeah, it's, it's alpha.
So keep, keep tune on this. We're going to announce it
within a couple of weeks.
OK, I see. I see. I see. No worries. No worries.
We'll keep our eyes on
it and maybe we can come back later to
tell us all about like where this additional yield is
coming from. But I am very glad that
you're working with us to issue
your LST and
you know, wish you all the all the luck in the future.
Is there anything else you wanna say before,
for all the people?
Yeah, I would say that if your life seems hard right now,
or if you think that something is not working well,
just keep grinding because as I said,
multiple things helped me just because of the
chance just because i was keep working i never gave up and things are just popping out when you
hurt really when you try really hard so yeah if you feel that something is like really you are stopped now just keep keep reading guys like whatever you be
like whatever you do just keep working up and gringing up and life will throw you a good thing
tomorrow or day after tomorrow or like next week yeah um james says hello by the way. We all love James from Drift, obviously.
And then Nate says, be you to full advice.
I totally agree.
What's that phrase?
It's, you know, opportunity is, you know, luck is just opportunity, right?
Positioning yourself for that.
And some people are better at getting lucky than others. And, you know, if you aren't trying to create those opportunities for yourselves,
you might look at lucky people, and then say to yourself, like, oh, that guy's just lucky,
but he, you can create your own luck, and you create your own luck by grinding, making connections
in the space and putting yourself out there. And if you don't do those three fundamental things,
you know, your, your life will just continue to be unlucky um so you truly can create your own luck and it just starts with you know um keeping at it even when shit is hard
yep good words you know completely agree with you okay thanks for having me thanks for having me
of course had an amazing time and always it's a pleasure to speak with my best friend in Crypto.
Oh, dude, by
the way, I finally got a Sonic jacket.
Oh, really? Congrats,
man. Yes. Yeah. So
Sonic has this like really legendary
jacket that was
really popular in Hong Kong and then BM
got one and I was super jealous. I was
so, so jealous. I was like, damn, that's a really nice
jacket. But then when I was in Japan last week, they brought like five of them and I was super jealous. I was so, so jealous. I was like, damn, that's a really nice jacket. But then when I was in Japan last week,
they brought
like five of them. And I was like, oh,
can I please just one? And they're like, sure, sure, sure.
Yep.
So next time I see you, I think we'll be wearing matching jackets.
We'll look like a boy band.
Yeah, I'm probably going to bring it again
to Istanbul for the crossroads
because this jacket is
quality is amazing, man. it's like everyone telling me the
like where did you get this jacket and no one even realized that it's just like crypto merge
like people think that's like a proper proper design jacket you know yeah it's yeah it is like
a designer jacket so uh feel very very glad to to have that merch but bmw bmw's in the chat. Thank you so much for agreeing to do it.
For context, guys, I literally just messaged
because we had another big warm welcome plan today
that just didn't work out.
And BM saved the day, literally.
I was like, hey, man, bro, you just launched Androsol with us.
Do you mind joining?
And he's like, of course.
And so now he's here sweating his balls off
over in the really hot third degree Sri Lanka weatheranka weather so thank you so much for coming brother i
appreciate it yeah thank you you know and thanks guys for listening all right take it easy bm we'll
talk to you soon yes bye-bye i always love talking to bm um he's a very close personal friend and I'm glad to see all his success over at Atrastia.
Like obviously he has created his own luck in the space and I think he's the embodiment of the type of positive attitude that we love here over at Sanctum.
For those of you who are just tuning in, welcome again to the Sanctum forecast, the most educational and entertaining stream in crypto.
If you're wondering why I'm much more
quiet than I usually am, it's because I have roommates who are sleeping around here. So like
I have to, you know, be a little polite and not be a complete psychopath. But trust me,
on the inside, I am literally screaming. And now it is time for, man, we got to fix this typo.
But now it's time for my favorite section of the, my favorite section of the forecast,
of the my favorite section of the forecast lightning strike and we have 45.6 million cloud
staked which is well over 20 percent of the circulating supply of cloud every single week
we're seeing more and more and more cloud stakes so really appreciate that cloud fam so if you scan
this qr code you can go into our staking UI. And of course, obviously, stake your cloud in return for S cloud.
And when you get S cloud, obviously, you're accruing staking score over time.
And just another update, like obviously, the Kamino vaults that we voted for, for cloud 003 are absolutely working.
Nothing's changed from last week. The old caps that we had
were 2.5 million TVL and 1 million TVL respectively for INF Sol as well as Bonk Sol INF.
We raised the caps to 3.5 million for INF Sol and we raised the cap for Bonk Sol INF to 2 million.
The INF Sol vault is full, guys.
It's completely full.
It's been full since last week.
The Bonk Sol INF vault, I think, out of the 2 million,
I believe it's at 1.1 million or 1.2 million deposited in those vaults.
So obviously, both of those vaults have been extremely successful.
I'd like to clear up just maybe some misinformation deposited in those vaults. So obviously, both of those vaults have been extremely successful.
I'd like to clear up just maybe some misinformation or like some FUD that's been circulating around these vaults. I think that there's this incorrect perception that the amount of incentives that we
are paying for this liquidity is being spent faster because we've increased the vaults.
That is literally not what
is happening. The monthly expenditure of cloud that we were giving for the INF sole vaults is
the same. So what that means is that for the exact same amount of cloud, we actually are getting much
more liquidity. So what that looks like is more bang for your buck. But that being said, I'll be
honest with you, I think we're slightly overpaying
for the liquidity.
So what that means is that like,
if we were to increase the caps
for the INF sole vault
from 3.5 million to like,
let's say 5 million,
the total yield, you know,
for the capital would decrease, right?
But then it would be on par
with our competitors.
Like you look at the other vaults,
like I think we're paying close to like 17% APY.
And like the other vaults are paying close to like 12, 13%.
And so that's what I mean by we're overpaying.
Like we're literally paying more for this liquidity than other vaults.
Like we wouldn't, I don't know if we need an additional 4%, you know, to incentivize people to deposit liquidity.
But hey, you know, like happy to provide
the highest yielding vault on,
well, not the highest, highest,
but like one of the higher yielding vaults on Camino.
I'm just saying that like,
and last time that we raised the caps,
people got, some people got upset.
And like, this isn't what was written in the proposal.
I don't really understand what the problem is.
And the reason why I don't understand
what the problem is,
is because the whole purpose of the proposal was to deepen INF liquidity, right? Like we've
said this over and over again, like that's not a secret, right? Like that was the whole point,
right? So if I can expend the same amount of cloud and get more INF liquidity for it,
that is strictly a good thing. And even now, like we are overpaying in the sense that like,
if you look at other vaults, like we could be charged, we could be paying out like a lower yield and probably get even more INF liquidity for the same amount of benefits.
But again, we're a little careful about not offending our community.
And we would want to have a discussion about that if we were to do that.
But just letting you know that the Camino vaults have been wildly successful.
just letting you know that the Kaminovolts have been wildly successful. Moving on, of course,
this is a tweet that went viral that I am a little excited about. We are kind of in discussions with
Zeus. And like, what if we were to do something called like ZSoul, where the yield is actually
paid out in ZBTC, right? If you're wondering what ZBTC is and how it's different from like,
in ZBTC, right? If you're wondering what ZBTC is and how it's different from like, let's say WBTC.
So ZBTC is completely permissionless. Like you do not need to go to a centralized exchange
or like an OTC deal with a market maker in order to get your BTC, right? Like you could
permissionlessly without KYC, without KYB, go from ZBTC into like pure BTC, right? But basically what you would do is
that you would auto DCA into ZBTC for the yield. So essentially you'd be holding soul and then
getting BTC rewards. So I thought that was very neat. A lot of people have been talking about it.
I would actually love to get your guys' thoughts on this. Coletta, hi. Good to see you here, buddy. Hi, guys. Hey. So, Coletta, I have your merch,
okay? It's like sitting in my suitcase outside. So, if some of you are wondering what the hell
I'm talking about, Coletta won a small contest that we ran a couple of weeks back. We were
basically looking for the most
lit commenter. And Coletta was spamming the chat like an absolute madman. I wish he would continue
to spam the chat because he's very good at it. And the winner of that contest was going to win
Backpack Merch. It took me a while to get it. We had to align schedules. I am currently in Singapore,
but was visiting Tokyo and Japan last few weeks, actually, and finally
got to visit the backpack offices. And so, Coletta, I have your merch. I promise I will send it to you.
I have your address. Don't worry. Okay. It is coming your way. I'm a little busy right now,
so a little hard to get to the post office, but letting you know that when I make a promise,
I keep my promise and we'll get that merch to you. So if you guys, you know, might want to win some getaways later, spam the chat, please. And thank you. So yeah,
I think there's, I'm not the only person who thinks that Z soul would be kind of sick, right?
So to basically get soul exposure and then, you know, get Z BTC as a reward. That sounds super
interesting. So just wanted to share that. And if you guys have any strong feelings or
want to perhaps, I don't know, want to see that partnership move forward, then please let me know.
And we're happy to continue that discussion with the Zeus team.
Okay, fun turkey updates. We got a lot of shit to cover this week.
So first things first,
some positive news. CloudFam is smashing through records again. So last week I told you that we had 1,648 unique voters for Futarki. That number is now completely outdated. After the latest
Futarki vote, Cloud 004, we're at 1,812 unique voters. We've added over 100 new voters to Futarki,
which I think is quite impressive, especially for a proposal like this. So just major congratulations.
Our participation at this point is probably about 10x more of the next biggest protocol
using Futarki, which would be MetaDAO itself. So my point being is that we have way more
voters for Futarki than in a single vote. I'm pretty sure we basically smash all the other
protocols put together. If you were to take all the protocols, add their unique voters together,
we would still be murdering them by a factor of two or three. So major congratulations to the
CloudFam for voting and sharing your opinions.
Now, the latest proposal that we put up was Cloud004,
which is like, should Sanctum build a Sanctum mobile app,
codenamed Wonder?
Now, we've done our homework.
Like, as you know, if you were on the stream here last week,
we went through all the feedback that we received, right?
Like the positive feedback, the negative feedback all the feedback that we received, right? Like the positive feedback,
the negative feedback, the neutral feedback. And quite frankly, we thought that this proposal was
on track to pass. But what ended up happening over the weekend and concluding on Monday
is that it failed. Should Sanctum build a Sanctum mobile app, wonder, it was a fail.
Which was, it was really interesting to see the, the activity on this,
on this proposal, because at first, like for the first 24 hours, the price diverged between the
past and the fail markets substantially, meaning that like the past market was trading way higher
than the fail market. So like by the end of day one, I was feeling very comfortable that this
would pass. But then what happened over the last couple of days, like on the last two days of the vote,
is that slowly people started to sell.
There was a big sell-off so people could sell.
You know what?
This would just be easier if I were to share my screen.
Give me one second.
Okay.
New project. okay new project
metadow.fi okay they have just changed their website because there's actually a new proposal. Like they're creating like a fund that's everyone is.
Huh?
They have changed their UI literally in the last hour.
So now I cannot navigate this website.
OK, that is interesting.
Yeah, but basically they're launching a new fund.
I know you're not supposed to call it a fund because regulatory reasons, but that's essentially what it is. It's a fund governed by a few Turkey.
Anyways, I'm getting sidetracked over here. But essentially what the price action looked like
was pass went up and then fail went down and it looked very good in 24 hours. And then there was
a deep sell-off of pass. And the reason why there was a deep sell-off of pass is people were
arbitraging, right? Like obviously the price of the pass market was like almost like 10% or maybe like
closer to 8% higher than spot price. And so that kind of made sense that like, okay, this has been
too positively traded. And so we now, we now need to bring it back a little closer to spot.
And then it just kept dropping. Right. And I'm not, not, we do know what the reasons for that are and we're going to be covering all of that.
So what did we learn?
We learned a lot from this proposal.
So this is the graphic that we showed you last week, right?
Because like we do look at all the feedback on Twitter,
on Telegram, on Discord, as well as Sanctum Research.
So like we do very very very thorough reviews of what
everyone thinks um of cloud uh zero zero four zero zero three like we make sure we know what the
community is thinking and so what we wrote was that like okay there's like 49 in favor 12 opposed
and 20 neutral right so you look at this type of data and you think to yourself like oh this is a
shoe one this proposal is definitely going to pass um but this is the original graphic that I used last week where I categorized this as neutral feedback.
Like, cool, but we need more details.
Here is my realization after this vote.
This was actually opposition feedback.
This was not neutral, right?
Like, cool, but we need more details.
Cool, but we need more details.
Like, we did kind of think that the tone of the comments was quite neutral.
Like we did kind of think that the tone of the comments was quite neutral.
But quite frankly, if you have a binary choice between pass or fail, if you were feeling this way, like, wow, before the proposal went live.
So this is during the discussion period.
So during the discussion slash deliberation period, like if you were feeling neutral, right, when it's time to vote, how do you think you're going to vote?
Positive or negative?
If you're saying, cool, we need more details. Well, a lot of those neutral people flipped to opposition.
So that's essentially what happened here. And so really the correct graphic is going to be like,
49 were in favor, but 32 were opposed. And I guess the opposed had much more capital.
So there was only about $49,000 in volume traded on this proposal,
which is actually quite big. If you consider other futarchy proposals done by other DAOs,
like we do have some of the highest volume, not the biggest, but like very up there in terms of
volume. But it's clear that the in favor crowd actually did not have enough capital to win the
day. Another kind of funny inside story here is that like, because I mean, 49,000 volume is not that much.
We had an internal discussion of whether or not like we should just buy the pass and like
get it to pass. But we ultimately decided against that. Number one, because like,
that's not how I mean, like, sure, like, as a personal, like, personally,
yeah, yes, I bought past.
But my point is that like, we wouldn't want to just like wail into because that's not
what Futarki is about, right?
Like Futarki is about trading on information and respecting what the market thinks.
And even when the voting started, it was pretty clear how people felt about it.
How people felt was like this, this, this proposal is too vague. It's way too vague. It doesn't have enough details. And so therefore,
like, it's hard for me to, people were worried about like, how much of, you know, of an opportunity
cost this is, I feel like that we, we discussed this in deep, deep length, but literally,
only two people out of a 20-person team would be
exploring, you know, Sanctum Mobile. But still, people had felt a little uneasy about that.
And also, they just wanted to know what the app is. Because quite frankly, we don't know what
the app is. We have ideas, like we have broad ideas, but no ideas that we're willing to commit
to and talk about publicly because like we don't, that's you know frankly how mobile apps work like you you have to evolve the concept and iterate over time um but yeah like we did not
articulate a firm vision for what wonder should be um and so the market responded uh essentially
by voting it down now here's something else i really did not anticipate is that like after the
vote failed um there was a lot of discussion online.
Like I thought that it was just going to be a failed,
like after it was very clear that it would fail,
I thought that people would just stop talking about it, right?
And then like people would just move on.
That's not what happened.
It actually kind of blew up a little bit
and like even totally ended up weighing in here.
But some of the comments,
I love this snarky comment from Vibu.
He said,
if Steve Jobs had asked Dowd to fund the iPod in 2001, the DAO would have voted
for buybacks. Which is funny, but I don't think that's necessarily true. I truly think that we
did the best job that we could for the experience that we have. But it's very clear that we have to
go back to the drawing board, right? So we have to present a much clearer vision for what wonder will be.
There's this exchange, which is like 46K shouldn't be enough to sway the decision
of a potential of the app for a billion dollar protocol could have had.
And then Tiege said, did you get the pass?
CEO of Bridge has just found out about the proposal from Retweet.
And Tiege is like the same.
Okay.
So like what this tells me is that there are people who are still excited about the app and wanted it to pass, but didn't even know that the vote was going on.
So I think that we need to do a much better job of, I mean, don't get me wrong.
Like if you look at the numbers, we, well, I'll respond in a second.
But yeah, I just like,
obviously in terms of the pure numbers,
like we're murdering every single other protocol
that's using Futarchy,
but still it's clear that we could do a much better job
getting people to be aware of the vote.
Because I think that there are people
who would love to vote on this.
So they're just not aware.
Let's see, what are these other comments from
Coletta? I was checking and about 40% of the stakers voted for Cloud4. Is that correct? The
ASR might be better than expected. Yeah. I mean, you know, I don't know. I haven't done that math
myself, but it wouldn't surprise me if quite a few people who are staking are not voting on
Futarki and it could just be an awareness issue. So I think that there's more work that we need to do.
And like, you know, the more voters,
the more accurate the market, right?
And then it says,
the DAO was a mistake.
I don't know what you're talking about here
because we don't really have a DAO in that way.
But I do think it's,
I think it was like the feedback that we got
was very high quality, right?
Like I'm thinking about Squid.
I'm also thinking about James Hanley.
I'm both of them work at Drift
and I'm close with both of them.
And I know Squid voted no.
James, I am unsure,
but that's not really the point, right?
Like the point is people made it very clear
that they liked the contours of the idea,
but like, what the fuck is it, right?
And I think that's super valid feedback. Also going, like, Tully's tweet, weighing in on this on this whole situation.
He said, like, it's easy to say no to every spending decision because the likely outcome
is failure. Yet doing nothing is also death. Futurki needs to prove itself on the risk it
took on, not the risk avoided. I agree with this, but the caveat that I would
add here is that I don't think that we did a thorough enough job in our proposal
outlining the risk to reward, right? Like, I think that quite frankly, I think the public
perceptions of the risk of the Wonder app are severely overblown. Like, there's really not
that much risk in my personal opinion. This
is just my personal opinion. I wouldn't even say this is Sanctum's opinion. This is my personal
opinion that I think that the risks that people mentioned, which is opportunity cost, you know,
are completely overblown. It's like literally two people out of a 20 person team. Like there are
plenty of other teams that with, with smaller teams that work on more initiatives. And we're
not moving away from our core business.
It's not like we're switching to a mobile app.
It's like we wanted two people to explore, right?
And we're not even using community funds.
You know what I mean?
Like we're using revenue that we earn from our LSTs.
So like I personally think that the risk perception
was completely overblown.
And we did not articulate a vision that talked
about the rewards of why this makes sense clearly enough. And I think that's our failure. To be
clear, I don't think that the perception that people have is inaccurate. Because the reason
why they feel that way is because we did not articulate well enough. Like we tried. And I think one of the issues here
is that the proposal was quite light in details, but like, obviously we add a lot of context on
the forecast, which is like this stream. And we clip the stream. We have obviously the weekly
summaries that are done by community, but that's just not enough, right? Like the proposal itself,
like I'd say the majority of voters
probably just get their exposure
to the proposal through the proposal itself.
So like, obviously,
I just kind of feel like
we could have done a much better job
on communicating
what exactly the risks were
and what the rewards are.
And I think those are very,
like, again, the risks were overestimated and the rewards were and what the rewards are. And I think those are very, like, again, the risks were
overestimated and the rewards were not clearly articulated. So even though I think that totally
is correct, I still think that there's a lot of comms that we have to do on our side and some
soul searching as well. And then there was, this was a very interesting comment, which is like,
what if the market is wrong though? Many of the best products and companies were not well
understood by the market at the time, but were successful because the founder, team, etc. knew what their customers wanted better than traders did or what the market priced it in as.
And in response to that, Mr. Rinko, who actually works at Coliseum, and Coliseum obviously is an investor in MetaDAO, so they're very invested in Futurki in general.
But he said, there's always a chance of this, but there's nothing stopping teams from submitting the same proposal twice
or even multiple times.
As we've seen with MetaDAO proposals,
the market appreciates when teams take feedback seriously and iterate.
Saw this with the Launchpad and Thea props.
So what is he talking about here?
Well, some of you may know that MetaDAO today,
actually like probably like right now,
in either 13 minutes or just about an hour ago.
I'm unsure of my time zones.
But yeah, they're launching Mountain with MountainDAO, right?
And that is an investment fund.
It's a launchpad that is completely governed by Futarki, right?
And the first version of that proposal, which was called Futardio, failed miserably, right?
And what was the feedback
at the time? Exactly the same as what happened to us, okay? People were like, what the hell is
this launchpad? What is the benefit to MetaDAO? The opportunity cost is too high. What are the
risks and what are the benefits? It was literally the exact same feedback of, I think the risks are
quite high and the benefits have not been clearly articulated. So I'm just going to vote no.
But literally on the second time where they took the market feedback and they were very
clear about, OK, here's the market positioning.
This is why we need this.
This is a much superior model for teams to raise funds.
It also ensures 100% transparency of the funds because all the funds are directed using few
percent transparency of the funds because it's all the funds are directed using few target votes
target votes.
and once they had a much better fleshed out proposal the market rewarded that uh with a pass
so to be very clear we're not giving up on wonder like we're not to respect the market right like
we're not just going to start working on it like you know we're not we're not complete you know
uh jerks like we we will respect the market. But I think that at the very least,
we're allowed to like, okay, the feedback is that this proposal was too squishy.
So we're obviously going to be focused on core because that's what the majority of the team is
focused on is our core business. But we will be, and we're not going to be rushing this,
by the way. It's like, we want to do Sanctum Mobile, but it's not like mission critical. We have to do it now or we'll fail. Like there are
other things in the company that we have to work on that are mission critical. And if we don't do
it now, we might fail. So that takes priority. But we totally heard the market feedback, which is
that risks seem high, even though that's not true, in my personal opinion, and the benefits unknown.
So, and you, this proposal was too squishy. So so uh and again we could have just dumped like 20k into the market and like force passed
but the reason why we didn't do this is because we felt that feedback that we got from the market
was very valid right like i wish more of these people would comment like during the discussion
period as opposed to like after the vote because like once the voting has started it's like dang
man like if you had just mentioned this in the discussion period we opposed to like after the vote, because like once the voting has started, it's like, dang, man, like if you had just mentioned this in the discussion period,
we would have reworked the proposal for voting, right? But, you know, can't cry over spilled milk.
But that's our takeaway, is that we are going to resubmit later, way later. We're just going to
take our time. We're going to think about it. Talk to some advisors who are much more familiar with mobile.
Some names you actually might know.
I'm going to spill the beans over there.
And make sure that we have a pretty solid game plan that everyone can get behind.
And if it doesn't pass again, you know, then we might have to rework the proposal again.
But I feel pretty confident that, you know, one's bitten, twice shy.
So we're going to put a lot of thought into, into, like, what
this app could be and what the benefits are and be very clear about the risk as well as the market
positioning. Right, Coletta. So Coletta has been pushing for this, right, which is like, what about
the native INF and Sanctum LST borrow lending proposal is push it. It's a simple proven tool
that works and generates a lot of revenue. Coletta, I'll be honest with you. I don't control the devs' time, right? The devs,
we have a very clear product roadmap. And so we could put that up for a proposal. And that is a
discussion that we can have. But I'll just be very frank. It's putting a lot of pressure on the team
to change a roadmap that's been negotiated and talked about literally every day to discuss this new initiative.
And like we have things on the roadmap right now that FP is articulating a strategy.
I'm going to bring Nick on here.
Three, two, one.
Hey, Nick.
So, Nick, you actually heard the plan today, right?
Like it's actually the first time saying like internally, even like we've heard like a very
clearly articulated plan and the Solana value stack and where Sanctum fits in.
Is that correct, right?
Like you were there in the room, literally.
So it's like, I don't think that we're opposed to a borrowing lending proposal, right?
But like, can we, Coletta, Ietta i love you but no i'm not giving you
alpha like that sure can you send me the roadmap on telegram i love you too but no um we're gonna
let fp do that uh and he's gonna share it with everybody um but uh but you get you get my point
though right it's like it's like it's a very well thought out, here's the Solana economy value stack, and here's how Solana fits into that.
And this has taken weeks, if not months,
for the core team to really figure out.
And mobile is a part of that,
but that's super long-term.
It's not anything in the immediate future.
There are other things that we have to work on right now.
But yeah, definitely don't want to tip off our competitors.
So we're just going to keep that a little internal for now.
And at some point in time,
FP will articulate and share this vision with everybody. So yeah, Nick, you can confirm
this exists, right? Like a strategy document with like how exactly we're positioning ourselves.
Yeah. Okay. Thank you for verifying this. I'm not a liar.
Okay. So how is the team feeling? Honestly, we're not worried at all. I think that we would have
been super worried if people were like, we hate this app. This is just like a horrible idea. But
that's really not the feedback. The feedback that we got in, I had a lot of private conversations.
And by the way, a lot of people messaged me saying, are you okay? How's the team doing?
Are you guys feeling? I'm like, guys, relax.
We're fine. We're not freaking out over here. We actually thought that the feedback that we got was super valid, which was that this proposal is too squishy and high risk for uncertain reward.
So it's like, okay, let's just go back to the drawing board and think about it. That's no
problem. So yeah, that's the next step. The next step is just to go back to the drawing board.
And we're going to take our time. We're not trying to force this down your throats. We want to be
intentional about it. We want to think it through. And maybe at the end of that soul searching, we go
like, you know what? Never mind. We don't really want to do mobile anymore. But at the very least,
let's just go back, think about it. And whenever there's an update, we'll let you know. But we just
passed where we just had our first failure with Futarki. Um, and we're, we're still okay.
It's like, I don't know.
I feel like some people, when they messaged me, they just expected me to be like, fuck
Futarki.
It doesn't work.
Like this didn't pass.
Like I wanted it to pass.
And it's like, don't get me wrong.
Like I'm disappointed.
Right.
But I also think the feedback that we got was super valid.
And so like, I'm not upset at all.
It just means like, try again.
And, like, first of all, number one, figure out why people voted no.
And I did a lot of homework since Monday to figure out, like, why people voted no.
And clearly it was just because the proposal was too squishy.
So now the question is, like, okay, what detail do we need to add to the proposal?
And, like, there have been a lot of people in the ecosystem who have reached out to us and said,
look, if you need us to review the proposal
and help you add details that people might be curious about,
whether it be who exactly is this app for,
what's the feature set, what's the moat.
Oh, he!
Jay says, dropping in to say hi to the CloudFam.
We miss Jay very much.
Jay has been super sick recently,
but still handling some of the most sensitive
and important things at core and at Sanctum.
So I hope he gets better very soon.
And everyone says, hi, Jay, WJ.
We all love Jay.
W's in the chat for Jay.
So we're going to go back to the drawing board
with Cloud004.
How are we feeling?
We are feeling A-OK.
This is all just a part of the process.
And also, there's precedent for this, right?
Like, Futarki, again, they had a launchpad.
And the first version of the launchpad just failed, right?
And the feedback was, like, not precise enough.
Like, we need more details.
So that's what we're going to do.
We're going to take our time.
We're going to digest.
We're going to think about it.
I actually want to give a very special thank you to James Hanley.
James wrote like, I mean, God, it was an essay about all the things that we should add to
the next proposal.
And James, I'll tell you again, like I'm going to add 90% of the things that you suggest.
I mean, probably all of it, but like just to hedge here like most probably 95 90 of all the suggestions
to be more specific uh on the proposal so w james and wj uh double j um is is only eno going to
solana crossroads so yeah i will be hosting the technical stage over at crossroads but i don't know if jay i mean jay is jay is so busy um and fp needs to needs to keep his keep his head on
on vision um so yeah i am i am unsure who else is coming to crossroads like maybe we get jesse to
come uh okay what to expect um as always uh we have 50 usdc uhC on the table for the forecast so like please get your
submissions in and we love you
all and I guess other things
to kind of
convey here is that it has
been a lot of soul searching for Sanctum
over the last few weeks
and or months and there's like so many announcements
it's so weird to sit on announcements that I've
known for months but it's also like just not the
right timing and when we announce you will it's also just not the right timing.
And when we announce, you will understand why it was not the right timing.
But there's a lot of stuff that we're sitting on that we're just like,
do we announce it at Crossroads?
Do we announce it at Accelerate?
What are we doing here?
But there will be a time very soon where we're announcing a bunch of stuff
and moving very quickly.
And I don't want to tip our hand too much,
but we'll be revealing the strategy once we have things
more shipped and coded.
But right now we are focused on the fundamentals
in improving a lot of processes
and getting the vision very, very tight.
I'm sure that we'll have another proposal,
probably like cloud five or something up very soon.
Unsure if it'll be related to to wonder
quite frankly i think for wonder we want to take our sweet time with that there's no need to rush
that at all um and yeah that's about it for the forecast uh this week everybody uh we actually
kept it under an hour which i think is quite impressive i think that yeah nick must be very
happy nick i'm bringing you back on nick are you are you happy that we kept it under an hour today?
Yeah, definitely.
Super happy.
Because Nick Nick has to timestamp all of these. Okay, so first of all, cut. Okay,
forecast is over. This is just us hanging out time. But yeah, like, obviously, like,
But yeah, like obviously like, uh, yeah, it's like, it's a lot of work to timestamp all
of these.
Yeah.
And you usually like finish it like two or 3 AM, which I feel really sorry about.
Sorry buddy.
But that's the work that you would have to do to make sure that we have as many threaders
as possible.
Um, you know, writing threads about the forecast.
Yeah, definitely 55 minutes.
That's, that's what, what uh the best i could ask for
yeah yeah really nice oh we have a lot of comments up in the
yeah so like we we uh so so there's there's an issue with streamflow where the comments don't
show up in the bottom like They populate on the top.
It's really hard to explain.
But it's like now I'm seeing a bunch of comments that I didn't see before.
So let's see.
The idea is at a very early stage, you pitched nothing, basically.
The concept needs to be more clear.
I don't disagree.
I don't disagree at all.
And should we expect a second vote for Wonder?
Absolutely. You should. Right. But to be very clear, it's like we're not trying to force it down the market's throat.
If we were trying to force it down your throat, honestly, with like 46K worth of volume in that market, like we could have done it this time.
Right. But we decided to respect the market's opinion. And the market's opinion was, you know, this is a squishy proposal. So yes, you should expect a second vote for Wonder, but not anytime soon. And it's not like
top, top priority for us. We have literally other shit that's like way more important.
So we're going to focus on that. But obviously in the back of our minds, like while we're having
lunch, like while we're thinking, it's like, hmm, what might mobile be, right? So we'll be much more clear about it in the future.
Doing your homework is a good move.
W, I really like your comments, by the way.
You ask a lot of good questions.
Doing your homework is a good move.
Is the roadmap something that can be shared to some extent?
We can't.
I don't want to prematurely share a roadmap
that might slightly change.
It'll introduce confusion that's not even necessary.
So it's like we will share, but once things are more real and like we have committed internally,
but now it's just a matter of actually just executing and doing the work.
And so like once we've executed, I'd say to a sufficient degree,
then we will totally share what our thoughts are on the roadmap. But but i just want to be really clear here like we're not trying to
you know um yeah yeah we don't want to make empty promises so we want to make sure that
yeah what we share is what we can do so yeah definitely yeah yeah yeah w uh please be more
clear about what is going to be next time absolutely and i you know i think solana retweeted the stream because now the numbers are pumping we got like over
this did solana retweet the stream all right okay
should we if we do the i mean it's like we're literally double tripling quadrupling our
droopling our viewer count.
our viewer count do we just run this whole forecast all over again
Do we just run this whole fucking
forecast all over again?
Cloud believe.
Yes.
Okay, what else? Any other feedback?
Cloud you, my fuckas.
I love you, Foie Grasse. You're amazing.
Giancarlo is like,
yo, G, for real,
are very insightful.
I didn't, like,
I think you have a very different Discord persona
to your Twitter
persona. You honestly
are top-notch, man. I love you.
And IBRL,
Baobuhay Filipinas.
Nick, we're having a company off-site, right?
You're here in Singapore with us. We have
a lot of the core devs, and we're just aligning everybody around
certain plans that we have. Can't can't be too specific about that but
it's your first time meeting like the entire team irl like uh yeah you know i can't believe
i've only been here for two months like it feels like i've been here for a year
yeah it's i mean how's it been for you yeah it's it's great like uh i guess what this is what home feels like so yeah great working
with everyone here and happy to work on sanctum so if you guys uh are happy to have me i'm happy
to have you as well like really appreciate all the feedback please keep them coming like don't
don't keep them on your uh in your hearts like in your mind mind. We won't hear it in that case.
So I've been getting DMs as well on the feedback on Cloud4.
So yeah, DMers, if you don't feel
like talking about it publicly, and I'll put it
in the sentiment report.
And then we can go through the analysis,
and we'll get back to the team as well,
so everyone knows what the CloudFam are thinking, basically.
Yeah, no cloud left behind, trust me.
We literally do listen to all your feedback
and read all your feedback.
And some of it, quite frankly, is not valid,
but other times it is super valid.
So what was valid this time around for Cloud004?
Should Sanctum build the Sanctum mobile app,
aka codenamed Wonder?
The feedback was, yeah, this proposal is too squishy.
So I've just been repeating myself for the last hour.
So I think I'll stop.
It's such a shame, you know,
because like now we finally got like an audience,
but the hour is up, guys.
We just covered everything, you know?
So yeah, like we're going to be here in Singapore at least for the next few days. The hour is up, guys. We've just covered everything.
We're going to be here in Singapore at least for the next few days.
Core team has all flown over here.
I flew in from Japan.
Nick flew in from Malaysia, if I'm not mistaken.
We have other people.
I can't say where they flew in without doxing them. We have other people who flew from places.
You had your first team lunch.
They were nice to you.
Yeah, it was great.
Like the vibes were top notch and great lunch.
Yeah, great place as well.
I actually, I did not go because I was busy grinding.
And also I famously do not like eating lunch.
And I also don't like eating breakfast.
I just like dinner.
But that's just a me thing.
I obviously eat.
I mean, look at me.
I'm a thick boy.
But I like my dinner.
How many meals a day do you eat, Nick?
Yeah, it's kind of crazy.
I used to eat more than five meals a day.
Oh, right. Because you were a fitness geek.
Right, right, right.
So you were doing that kind of...
Yeah, that was a crazy time.
Right now, yeah, sometimes one is grinding.
That's all you have time for?
Yeah, and I forgot about eating and I only eat dinner.
That's not good for me.
Okay, everyone.
Thank you very much for joining this week's edition of the Sanctum Forecast,
the most entertaining and fun and educational streaming crypto.
We do this every Wednesday at 1400 hours UTC.
That's 1400 UTC every week on Wednesdays.
Can't wait to see you all again. And again,
if you're wondering how we're doing, we're doing just fine.
It's not that big of a deal.
All right. See you guys later. Adios.
You.
Good day.
All right.
