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SMALL CAP INVESTING
Recorded: April 21, 2025 Duration: 1:17:54Space Recording
Short Summary
In a turbulent market, Bitcoin and gold emerge as safe havens, while discussions around strategic partnerships and potential token launches highlight the evolving landscape of crypto finance. Participants express caution as earnings reports approach, indicating a trend towards alternative financial services gaining traction.
Full Transcription
Thank you. Beautiful day in the market we're having
yeah happy monday yeah i say as i hesitate um but yeah welcome in everyone this is the small
cap show that we run each and every monday of course last week we had a scheduling conflict
ran it on thursday and of course had a fantastic show even through audio issues.
The team here is fantastic.
But it is April the 21st.
It is Monday.
It is 1 p.m. Eastern.
And, hey, I'm excited for the small cap show here even though the market's not doing fantastic.
I mean, if you look around the market, we could find maybe a bright spot in gold and Bitcoin.
That's about it.
VIX is very green today.
But yeah, there's some individual names, I'm sure, that are probably doing decently out there.
We'll have to hear from the crew here.
Let me get everyone up here on stage.
stage and we'll kick into it. There we go. Boom, boom, boom. And I should not have any distractions
And we'll kick into it.
There we go.
Boom, boom, boom.
or audio issues today. And knock on wood, I'm knocking hard on the wood here. But we'll see.
Yeah, market's down a little bit today, but there's always a bright spot somewhere out there.
But I will say this, with the market being down, there has been multiple people on this very space with high cautionary words around this market, even when
we were making that little mini dead cat bounce, if you wanted to call it that, the last week or so.
So we'll see what everyone's thinking today, get some updated thoughts. I know it's only been a
few days and not a whole lot has happened other than a long weekend. Hope everyone did have a great long weekend as we got back into a red market
this morning as I'm looking at new lows on the day right now. Oh boy. Any crazy news happens,
I will jump in. But let me get Ben up here. And every time I try to send Ben co-hosts the first time it always fails but we'll
get Ben up here and then we'll kick us off maybe here we're just gonna not do
the co-host thing for now then we'll just we'll give it like a five minute
timeout on this co-host and there he is Ben what's up all right yeah I don't
know about the codes today, but...
We'll just leave it alone.
How are you?
Go ahead, kick us off with Market Cinnamon.
Any thoughts you have to start the show?
Yeah, look, it's only been a few days since our last meeting on Thursday,
so we're back to the weekly schedule.
So probably not a lot new to talk about, but, you know, small-cap show,
but I'm focused on the macro because the macro will impact the small cap.
So I'm looking at QQQ.
We've got a big earnings week.
You know, Tesla's more after the close, and then we get into the other big cap tech.
And I've got to be honest with you.
These charts are garbage, man.
Like QQQ really looks like, well, the next support on this thing is 422.67.
And earlier in the day, I was telling my crew that I think we'll hit that tomorrow before
Tesla earnings.
Then we got 402 after that.
And ultimately, the 200-week moving average on SPY QQQ is what I'm looking for as a major
support level.
And we'll see what happens there.
If we have, you know, some turnaround in the tariff news that maybe that could be the bottom,
but if things don't change, then, you know, it could be a lot worse.
So, you know, I got to look at that because that's going to take small caps down with it.
I'm not even looking at the IWM chart.
It's not worth it to do a technical analysis on IWM. You know, if SPY and QQQ go down to these levels, I haven't looked
at IWM in ages, to be honest with you, because it's just going to go down with the big caps.
I mean, it's got to be a, I mean, that's a very rare situation to see small caps not go down with the big cap. So yeah, I'm totally laser focused on that macro.
I came in today, 85% cash.
I'm trying out some day trades today,
which actually are not working that superbly,
but probably mostly because I didn't have great execution today.
I had a couple decent calls, but it's just very hard, very hard.
You know, I like it when my calls, the stock goes up straight up all day.
That's what I look for.
That's the type of catalyst and the chart setup I look for,
because then it makes it easy for everyone, including someone like me,
who is not a great chop trader or intraday technical trader.
It's not my thing.
I make directional bets on catalysts or technicals.
And if we don't directionally move straight up in the direction I want and we get chopped, I get chopped out.
I'm a terrible trader in chop.
So a couple of decent calls this morning on just like relative outperformance of Netflix versus the indices.
It's starting to roll over right now.
I was up like 100% this morning on some Netflix call options, but I didn't have a sell order. I didn't sell it, and now I'm down on it. So tough to execute
in this type of market. But I don't know, man. Is there anything good to say right now? I really
think you got to get out of Dodge this week. The next shoe to drop, I guess, is going to be Tesla
earnings tomorrow, and I can't imagine it's going to
be very good.
So, you know, there's only like one small cap that I'm in.
Like, it's like a 5% position in my trade account.
I talked about this Thursday.
It's Salem Media, S-A-L-M.
But anything else, you know, small cap wise, if if i do a trade it's like a one to two
percent position and if it's not working i'm out so um yeah it just doesn't look good to me right now
yeah it's uh it's hard to find something positive out there, Ben.
I know it is.
And yeah, I don't know what else to say to that other than I feel like at this point,
if you are looking for positives, you're really having to reach to find them.
And it's almost you're getting to the confirmation bias territory, which is very dangerous in the trading aspect of things.
But great thoughts there
thanks for kicking us off ben let's keep it moving around money mark let's go over and get your uh
are we at an orange alert yet or are we still yellow we can't we can't up the alert unless
something major happens but yo listen yellow alert for everybody uh out there who doesn't already
know for me a yellow alert is major. I've only had three orange
or red alerts ever. Orange was COVID and the red alerts were the internet.com crash and the
financial crisis. So yellow is very bad. It remains yellow. And, you know, what we've been
saying for a while is that we got four pillars of the Trump administration. And one of the major
ones is the massive debt refinancing. Any five-year bonds that we're taking out during COVID
at sub 1% interest rate is now due to be reset at 4% to 5% interest rates. That's bad.
35% interest rates. That's bad. Trump wants it to be at a lower rate. And we're talking about
mid-year. Okay. So this is not a safe environment, at least until mid-year is what I've been saying
for, well, it's almost four months now. And that continues to be the case. So let's go through it
real quick. The four pillars, manufacturing, bringing manufacturing to the United States, tariffs help with that, cutting the government fluff, Doge is helping with that, refinancing the debt, getting interest rates low is what helps with that.
And then the strong dollar is what he's hoping for, but he's not getting it.
So those are the four pillars that you can write down. And if any one of those pillars starts interfering with the others, then you're going to see him back off. So when you saw the interest rates start going up, and by the way, news and in Twitter that indeed the story behind the story is that the higher interest rates triggered the tariffs to be backed off on.
So now what you're seeing with the interest rates is that political war starting between Jerome Powell and Trump this morning.
Him saying that a recession is possible if interest rates aren't dropped and that Powell
only drops interest rates near elections. He's basically casting Jerome Powell as the likely
scapegoat if we do head into a recession. So these are all warnings in the marketplace of things that
are going on. If you look in the jumbotron, I gave you the channel. I know Ben's not looking at the IWM technicals.
I'm a small cap investor.
I watch the channel at least to get an idea of when I want to lighten my loads, when I
want to increase my loads.
And usually I'm very stock, individual stocks specific.
But when I see that my individual stocks are doing a certain thing, I back check it versus
are doing a certain thing, I back check it versus the IWM. So you can check out that.
the IWM.
So you can check out that.
And then other than that, last week, Ben said he was at 70% cash. And I came and I said, yes,
yes, yes to that. If you look at that channel, we're high on the channel. We have a long way
that we can drop from here. And this week, Ben comes out and says he's 85% cash. So not only did
he give us the warning, I'm 70% cash. I backed it up and now he's 85% cash. So not only did he give us the warning, I'm 70% cash. I backed it
up and now he's even more cash. And I say to that, yes, yes, yes. This is nothing so far, folks.
We're only down about 20% on the major averages. In 2022, we were down 37%. So we could only be
potentially only halfway to what happened in 2022.
And by the way, what was the big deal in 2022?
We were maybe going into recession.
Well, now we're maybe going into recession and going into a global trade war.
So be careful out there. We'll be back to talk about the stocks that you should look at to defend yourself in this environment.
Money work.
Let me just jump in there and reiterate back up some of what you're saying.
You're saying this is nothing so far.
Actually, I was saying that this morning.
I forgot if it was on video, on a live video or in the chat.
I mean, I've been talking for weeks about how I don't go by the rules of 10% to a correction
and 20% to bear market.
I mean, there's just such stupid ways of looking at it because it all depends like how much you've been up.
You know, so I use the 200-week moving average
as a long-term bull line.
And, right, so looking at the 200-week moving average
on SPY and QQQ, you can move all the way down to there,
and that's, to me, just a correction in a bull market.
So it's almost like a best- case scenario, you know, that you
bounce off that 200 week moving average, just just telling you, you know, we, we corrected off
some of that major profits people made in the last five years. And now it's found that both
bull line supported 200 week moving average. And off you go again, the races, that's like a best
case scenario to be down another 12% or so on this fire, 10%, whatever it is at this point in the day.
down another 12% or so on the spire, 10%, whatever it is at this point in the day.
You know, if you're truly bearish and you think, oh my gosh, you know, Trump is destroying America,
you know, a lot of that talk out there, you're looking at something that's, I don't know,
maybe you got to start looking at the 2008, 2009 charts to see what can happen if you go below the
200-week moving average. So for me, this is just a standard correction
at this point. And then we'll have to reassess once we get to the 200-week moving average.
Yeah. And to me, this is more like, this is a bear market. When you look at what he's trying
to accomplish, those four pillars that I stated, that's not something that you can do very easily.
And you can see, he came out with the tariffs and it spiked interest rates. Now you got to deal with that. And then the economy slowing down,
all of these things, right? The typical and book, great comment regarding down to 10%, down 20%.
When the market drops 20%, over 50% of the time, or I should say 50% of the time, it drops more than 33%.
The average drawdown in a bear market, down 20, is actually 34.3.
The average duration of a bear market, peak to trough, peak having been only, what, three
months ago, average is 15.7.
So yes, caution is warranted. And again, we've got to
refinance that debt around mid-year. He's committed to this tariff situation, and that is weighing on
the economy, and we're seeing that more and more. So we have to be careful, and we've got to make
the right moves to preserve capital, first of all, first and foremost, keep your money because whoever has the most money on the other end of this is going to buy the most cheap stocks.
But if you want to make some money in this, then we're going to give you some stock picks later on.
Well said and great back and forth there.
Kyle, let me bring you in next into the conversation and see what you have to add.
Kyle, let me bring you in next into the conversation and see what you have to add.
Yeah, I don't want to sound like a broken record, but ultimately I kind of disagree with Money Mark and Ben.
When I look at what the market was expecting to happen this week, it's just not going to happen in reality.
I think people were saying that Japan was going to have a deal and Mexico potentially was going to have a
deal. And then earlier today, Mexico comes out and says, hey, we don't have a deal. Japan's prime
minister came out and said, we don't know if we can get to a deal. So I think when you look at
the market and how it's going to react, I don't think we really know but but like money
mark said like there's a really good chance that this goes another 15 20 percent and it's better
than 50 percent that that could happen so like right now I'm 65 cash I'm not necessarily buying
any stocks that look cheap because here's the the thing that people may not be realizing is
earnings are going to be going down. So when you look at a stock that has a PE that's below
historical average, we don't actually even know if the future earnings are going to be good or
even hit the estimate. So I would just be really careful to make any trades and really look at any company and say,
hey, you know, are the tariffs going to erode the earnings?
Is this company safe if this trade war goes for another six months to a year?
Because the reality is, is like we don't know how long the tariffs are going to be in place
or if they're permanent.
And no one really knows that, right? I think even the administration
right now, they don't even really know what's going to happen in a week or two, because all
of these countries are trying to negotiate and come to a fair agreement. But the agreement they
want might not be what Trump and them want. So then it's like, what do you do? So I would just,
you know, really what Money Mark and Ben said, just be careful, hold a lot of cash, maybe buy some selective
stocks. But I mean, hold your hold your cash and then deploy it when we really get to a
bottom. And then you're going to be much better off than somebody that's buying all the way
down to the dip just because they think some of these stocks are cheap when in reality they're not hey kyle i don't think a lot of people know but you're like an insider
here with regard to the software industry you know are you hearing any signs of delays of purchases
of technology or capital out there yeah it's it's it's no different than what I said a couple weeks back. I think when I look at a lot of these companies, especially the larger enterprises, they're
not making a lot of purchases right now, even if they do like the software.
So I've had more than a couple of deals stall.
And these are deals that I potentially was going to commit for the quarter.
Now, I don't really have visibility if this is going to happen in next month or happen
next quarter.
So I would say the industry that might be hit harder than people realize is software.
It's like, hey, there might not be a tariff on it.
But ultimately, when we see an economy pull back, even these software names are going
when we see an economy pull back, even these software names are going to be hit. Next thing
to be hit.
you know, the hyper growth is going to go down at 10, 15, 20% lower than what people were expecting.
And I mean, these companies are going to re-raise. So I think MoneyMark, to your question,
I would say that, yes, I'm seeing a couple of these people push out, they don't really have visibility. And a lot of it's my champions,
right? Like the VP of IT, for example, he's saying, hey, I want the software, but my CFO says
we have to be cautious and we can't buy this right now because we don't really know what's
going to happen in the future. So I think CFOs are really tightening the budget and it's happening at my company.
And I work for a hyper growth private company that's worth a couple billion dollars.
And we're probably going to IPO in the future.
So I would say you have to be cautious right now because all the CFOs are tightening their
purses and they're not really going out and spending a lot of money.
Now, you see, that's a hyper growth company.
When you look at technology, what a CEO and a CFO look at is we want to improve our efficiency of our business.
But when business is slowing down, you don't need more efficiency.
You need to cut costs, right?
So the purchasing decision, the ROI of buying technology decreases. The other reason
that you buy technology is to add seats to software you've already purchased. But if you're
not hiring new employees, then you don't need new seats. And we're seeing a lot of hiring freezes out
there. Good comments. Kyle, maybe I misheard you at the beginning of your comments. I thought you said you disagreed with Mark and I, or did I mishear?
No, no, I agree.
No, no, he agreed.
I agreed fully.
No, no, no.
I was waiting for the disagreement.
I'm like, wait a second.
I think Mark and I agree with everything you said.
Yeah, Ben, you're wrong.
No, no, I agree with everything that you said.
I'm not in a hurry to buy right now.
I heard that at the beginning, and then I realized what you're saying.
And yeah, yeah, I think we're all kind of on the same page here.
I don't think there's a positive way to really spend much of this right now.
But we'll see.
Let's go over to Ariel and see if you have any thoughts around uh market sentiment what's your what's your
thoughts uh yeah on this red monday fun day huh every monday man so there's always something so
i just forward some cat uh if you look at small cap investing and you see the um you know the
actual messaging there so i put in a historical PE multiple on SPYs.
And it's obviously, we do look for the macro until we look at the micro and the small cap here.
And as you could see, based on this chart, I'm echoing everyone's thoughts, we have a potential
long way to go down. And the issue that I'm seeing now more than ever, and I look at fundamentals,
is the price earnings compression by way of a potential recession that we may have
based on what's happening today. And what I find comical to me is when something
major shifts in the marketplace on a top-down level with respect to tariffs, everyone thinks
that there's a deal that's going to get done. you know, it's like, and yeah, we're negotiating, great, everything's
going great, we're going to have something that's going to occur this next week, and I'm thinking
to myself, I'm like, do you guys know how a deal gets done, does anyone understand, like, I've
closed on, I don't know, 300 deals in my, you know, history, and I've raised billions of dollars,
know, 300 deals in my history, and I've raised billions of dollars. And I could tell you it's
a lot of work. And then let alone a tariff negotiation with trade. And I don't know how
any of these things get done anytime soon. So now what that means is like you all said,
you know, you just have, you know, the clarity isn't there, right? And when you have a future
that's murky and cloudy, we all know what happens next. So I'm not trying to like
sound alarms and whatnot. I always like to look at the better, rosier picture, and I tend to focus
on what isn't tariff-related. But it's something that, you know, market sentiment, everything,
everything is looking negative right now as we see it. But I am looking at healthcare,
and I'm looking at domestic, which
usually does bode well for hospital companies and whatnot. I'm not talking about insurance because
you have to be very careful there. I wouldn't touch that with all the Dr. Oz and his changes
he's making, but I'm looking at mostly maybe like a little bit of biotech, not so much pharma,
but healthcare, medtech, you know,
that whole industry is not affected by tariffs. Okay, so let's focus on domestic only,
non-tariff kind of plays, because that's where you're going to find some light at the end of
the tunnel. And of course, the rare earth is still very much in vogue. I mean, like I said,
I don't see this China-US thing getting resolved anytime soon. And I'll tell you one last anecdotal evidence I have. I'm working on,
you know, part of what I do is I take a lot of companies public. Obviously, it's not simple here,
but I do it by way of reverse, by SPAC, by traditional way IPO. And I'm the one that they
use to shepherd, you know, the company through. And I can tell you, I was speaking to a bunch
of international companies and they're telling me straight up like you know malaysia indonesia those countries are where
everything is moving over you know away from china and and now they're seeing that this is not going
to end anytime soon so they're trying to be you know the ones that take over for china so that
that's interesting development that i'm seeing here in the marketplace. I'm seeing a lot of companies coming out of there and
and the administration is actually favoring them now. Vietnam, all those different countries that
are like always kind of sort of fighting with China. And it's an interesting dynamic that's
shaping up guys. So stay tuned. This is going to be a hell of a year. Volatility just begun.
this is going to be a hell of a year.
Volatility has just begun.
Thanks, Ariel.
Appreciate those comments.
Yeah, here we are.
How many weeks into this?
Still zero deals on the table.
That's the part that's probably bugging me
more than anything in this
is there's zero deals,
zero clarity going on
and just more and more bad news
it seems like coming out.
But either way, let's keep it moving let's go over to dougie fresh next and then we'll hit the godfather
to wrap up market cinema that was everybody today so yeah a nice red day here and uh i was like i
was saying thursday i was expecting to see that tweet yesterday because again if not look what
the market was going to do i kind of figured that and I didn't think they wanted to make the market this red.
And you guys, I can't disagree with anybody.
I mean, after today's look, it is in a bearish look.
And that's why I thought you were going to see something yesterday just to try to get the market pop back up.
And it does not look like it's popping back up at the moment.
So I think we will see some more downturn.
Obviously, we look for them quick poppers
and they are far and few between right now i mean they are there's usually even more running up even
when a red market and today it's just like really flat and just coming down so you really have to be
careful keep your money in your account and uh and obviously trade really smart. And yeah, like Ariel was saying, these tariff deals, this isn't going to be like a handshake kind of thing. These things take a little while. So it's not like they can just say, oh, yeah, we made a deal. And then all of a sudden, yeah, of course, Trump's going to tweet about it. But you still have a ton of work and paperwork and all that nonsense to go through to get that stuff actually done and in writing and concrete so it's not like
it'll change immediately and yeah it's it's a crazy wild market and obviously just got to
protect your finances and make sure that you're playing them very smart and just looking at them
charts they will tell you if it wants to come down last week you knew it was and that's why i thought
we'd see something but we didn't so just expect it to come down and i don't want to beat it in like money markland
everybody already pretty much hit it right on the head so i think we're all on the same page
obviously and so that's what i see right now and and yeah even the iwm it's like ben was saying he
hasn't even been following it i do look at it and it's just going right hand in hand with the SPY and the QQQ.
They're just coming right down.
There's nothing looking great, but we'll point out a couple that will be looking a little good for this week.
Again, it's quick poppers, so you've got to get in and out and catch them real fast and really trade smart.
A lot of action going on at that 4 a.m. on Webull.
That's where you're seeing a lot more action right now during these real red times. You at that 4 a.m on Webull. That's where you're seeing a lot more
action right now during these real red times. You see that 4 a.m action. I'm not up trading it,
but it is wild at that time. I've never seen anything like it. So that's what I see in the
market right now. Yeah, Dougie, it's funny. I've been trying to short a lot of things,
obviously with the market in the shape that it's in. And sometimes we can't even get a pop to short unless you're up early. Sometimes in the future, you catch one that way. But yeah, it's been wild. Sometimes you want it to pop just so you can short it. And we're not even getting that someday, which is not a great sign.
which is not a great sign.
Godfather, let's go over your direction and wrap up with your thoughts on market sentiment
before we jump into some stock picks.
Yeah, hey, everybody.
Look, I wish I could be the bright light here, but unfortunately, I'm kind of in line with
my colleagues here.
Look, this week, we've got some auctions in the belly
of the curve, right? Twos, fives, and sevens. We did see some strength in the 10-year and the 20-year
auctions, but I think a lot of eyes are going to be on this. Clearly, there's a move away from
the U.S. You're seeing it in the U.S. dollar weakness. You're seeing it
in gold, which is responding to the U.S. dollar weakness. You're seeing it in the backup and rates.
And, you know, we're now, I think, at December 23 levels on the U.S. dollar. So, you know,
honestly, I can't see what, you know, Trump is doing here with respect to picking on Powell.
He's just exasperating the international nervousness with the US by doing that.
He's shooting himself in the foot, in my opinion.
I think it's pretty clear in this market that both the Trump and the Fed puts are lower than where we are. And
every day that we go further into this tariff battle, the bar just keeps going higher. The
market really doesn't have much of an appetite to hear about, you know, qualitative remarks that
negotiations are going well, etc. You know, honestly, even if we get a deal with Japan
or with India or Israel or whoever's, you know, first on the docket, you know, outside of the EU
and China, I don't think that the market really responds that well. To the extent that we
get spikes higher, I think they get faded quite quickly. In a Redden article on the weekend,
it was talking about China and the position they're in with respect to bargaining to the US.
and the position they're in with respect to bargaining to the U.S.
And it kind of it hit home to me when they they indicated that or I guess reminded me that,
you know, their exports to the U.S. account for a mere 14 percent of their total exports.
So, you know, we're talking about 14 to 15 trillion dollar economy and the exports to the U.S. are like 550 billion.
So, you know, all this talk about, you know, them playing with a pair of twos versus, you
know, the strong hand to the U.S. is a bunch of BS.
So, look, this uncertainty, you know, clearly it's, it's crept into the soft data.
Um, the further we go, uh, you know, the, the more we're going to start seeing this
creep into the hard data.
Um, it's really hard to play offense in a, in a market where, you know, both earnings
where both earnings are under pressure and multiples are under pressure.
are under pressure and multiples are under pressure.
And as Ariel said, this is not an inexpensive market.
And if earnings aren't going higher, then you can see fundamental numbers on the S&P
that you can just do the simple math.
Assume no earnings growth over last year.
Put a 20 times multiple on that year at 4850.
Put a 19 times multiple on that year at 4600.
Put an 18 times multiple on that year at 4344.
And there's some big technical levels that come into play in that sort of sub or around the 4600 mark.
So if you're looking to add long-term positions, yeah, you can pick
away a little bit on a daily basis. But I don't get aggressive until we start seeing that sort of
45, 4,600 key levels on the S&P. And, you know, I'm not even sure at this point whether those are
going to be supportive or not. So, yeah, the backdrop, you know, really couldn't be worse at this time. You know,
there are certain areas. It was interesting that Ariel pointed out XBI because, you know,
clearly it's not that tariff focused. And we saw some bullish comments out of Martin Macri,
who took over from Peter Marks at the FDA. He gave an interview on Friday
just saying, hey, you know, when it comes to rare indications, you know, we'll consider
conditional approvals instead of, you know, pushing all the way to getting randomized controlled
trials. So, you know, we saw some uptick in the XBI on that. But, you know, just as a reminder, this is just getting back to where we were with Peter Marks.
But if you are trafficking in the biotech area at all, you know, I would encourage you to really look at the designations that these companies have.
You know, a poster child for rare indications, for example, is Capricor. This is a company that has been given
orphan drug designation. It's been given rare pediatric disease designation. It's been given
regenerative medicine advanced therapy designation. The FDA basically said, you know, please apply. You know, we will give you priority review.
So there's a voucher that could come with them. You know, the FDA basically said,
file your BLA. So, you know, these are the type of things that you want to focus on if you are
investing in biotech. And, you know, even if they're not in a rare disease
area, you know, you want to look for companies that have been given fast track or breakthrough
therapy designations. These are all the companies that the FDA will take a lighter touch to.
lighter touch to. So, yeah, I'll leave it at that and we'll come back to individual picks, I guess, now.
Beautifully done, Godfather. Appreciate you getting your thoughts in there. Kyle, did you have something to throw in?
May have just got a feedback on the mic there. No worries.
All right.
We've got everyone's thoughts here.
And, yeah, it seems like we're pretty much in agreeance across the board. But what I am interested in knowing is, are there any alpha type of picks out there in this market?
Ben, I'm going to come over to you first and see if there's anything that you're trading, if anything has been working,
first and see if there's anything that you're trading, if anything has been working, or
if anything that's on your radar going forward in this not so great market right now.
Well, I always look. I never give up looking for alpha in any type of market. And there's
two that are my largest positions in my trade account, about 5% each. But before I comment
on that, I'm just thinking about all the people listening to this and for those folks who are like, you know what, maybe I just want to do long-term
investing right now, don't want to do trading.
You know, we cover that in our community as well.
And just as a quick update, I'll tell you, you know, I have been raising cash in my long-term
account, have been increasing my gold in my long-term account, but I still basically have
my full positions in these stocks that I've talked about before
here, which is Pitney Bowes, Kodak, AST Space Mobile, Burna, Root.
Shaved a little bit off on Burna with the big move we had recently.
Even Robinhood, I've decided to keep through the storm.
And these are positions I'm willing to keep for years in an account that I can't touch the money until I'm 59 and a half years old.
So those are the small caps, my highest conviction small caps that I'm keeping in my long-term account.
It has some other names in there like TSSI and much smaller size than it had before.
So there's that.
All right.
So we continue to give some
advice on that. As far as what I'm active in every day, it's a day to swing timeframe
and some intraday as well. So intraday to a few week holds, something like that.
So in that account, my two largest positions at about 5% each right now. Ooh, actually in that trade account,
I'm also short Tesla by 5% right now.
2X short TSLQ, but that's not a small cap.
Ends of the earnings report tomorrow.
But okay, so I talked about this Thursday.
Salem Media, S-A-L-M.
I'm going to continue to hold this.
Okay, it's a tiny, illiquid microcap. Some people may hate a name
like that in this market, and I don't blame them. Market cap, 32 million. But if I'm going to hold
something, I want that Trump tailwind. And the Trump tailwind still exists when Trump Jr. and
company invests in these small cap companies. Those are still working. So I did some fundamental research on the same sale in media,
and it looks like they pretty much paid off all their long-term debt, market cap $32 million.
I haven't, you know, I've tried to do a fundamental analysis with the aid of AI,
and it comes out to like $250 to $350 a share is a fair value.
It's hard to estimate, though, because the way they paid off all of their debt was they
sold some assets off, and I'm not sure what impact those asset sales will have on their
revenue and earnings.
So it's a little bit hard to nail down.
But the way I look at it, you have that Trump tailwind in terms of additional hype that
can happen around the same after Donald Trump Jr.
and Larry Trump, you know, like a 30 percent position in the company the other week.
And I also look at the market cap versus the brand.
This is something I do often, which has served me pretty well, to be honest with you.
You know, as long as you're sure, you know, you look at, hey, there's no toxic financing
look at, hey, there's no toxic financing in place, or they don't have a ton of debt.
in place or they don't have a ton of debt.
I like to do, you know, these qualitative estimates of, does that market cap make sense
compared to its brand penetration?
And when I look at Salem Media at $32 million compared to, let's say, Newsmax, which is
at, what is that, $3 billion, all right, to, there's a big gap there.
Salem Media, for those who might not know, is a household brand in the conservative media
space.
They've been around forever.
I think mostly podcasts, but websites, conservative websites as well.
So I like being on a name like this.
I'm okay having a 5% position in a name like this.
I think it's fundamentally justifiable. And I think you can get either just a secondary move off of that news that
happened last week based on no news, or you can have the next catalyst, which might be
Salem pursuing uplisting to NASDAQ or something like that. So I'm keeping that name, S-A-L-M.
The other one we talked about last week, which I'm stealing a little bit from the Godfather here, which is Webull Warrants.
So Bull W, this may also, well actually I thought it was a 5%, it's 3%, it's a 3% position right now.
I might have to take it to 5%.
Webull Warrants over here.
You know, again, this exercise of, hey, if Robinhood is worth,
let's see how much Robinhood is worth.
If Robinhood is worth $35 billion, what would Webull have to be in order for these warrants
not to give me a profit by the time this 30-day lockup is finished in a couple weeks?
And that's around $5 billion. Around that number, maybe
$5.5 billion. So to me, there's, again, maybe a justifiable fundamental valuation without
even looking at the fundamentals, just looking at the brand and the brand penetration and
the market share. I happen to like Webull about 10 times better than Hood. In my opinion,
it's much, much better for active traders.
But in any case, I look at that as a position I'm willing to hold through this market downturn.
Over the next couple of weeks, if bull is able to stay, you know, in the above $13, $14,
you know, that should be at least a break even from where it is right now on the Webull Warren. So those are the two that I'm holding in largest size as far as a swing.
As I said, I'm shorting Tesla into the report tomorrow.
I'll probably take at least half of that off the table before the report.
And just a quick update, I did sell my entire Berna trade position.
I have the long term position, but but it did sell. We failed to get
to $22.50, but we did pretty good. I recognized that failure on Friday. I sold most of the
position on Friday, sold the rest of it this morning. Also, I significantly reduced my Kodak
position in my trade swing account, but not at all in my long-term account. That's another one.
Kodak, it's just moving with indices. So if I see a certain pattern in QQQ,
that pattern is exactly identical in Kodak,
so I reduced it because of that reason.
And that's about it.
So the two that I like here,
and by the way, just a quick shout-out,
this is pretty impressive relative strength.
I also have a position in Senestec,
S-N-E SNES, in my trade
account, just 1.7% allocation. But I also have an allocation in my long-term account,
pretty good relative strength. Just a reminder, this one is a paid sponsor of Story Trading.
But that chart looking pretty good, the recent catalyst looking pretty good, and we're expecting
more upcoming catalysts. Wouldn't really recommend this for most people in this macro environment, but I just
feel maybe I'm a little biased, but I'm very close to the situation and I see the risk
reward here.
It's something that could be up 510x if they flip to profitability before needing another
raise or simply just announce a big deal,
which there could be one of many, many big catalysts that come that can get these guys
on the other side.
So this is an unpaid, by the way, an unpaid note.
We've had the Cinesstec CEO here twice, and we basically give the disclaimers there that
they're a paid sponsor. In this case, this is just me talking from my own point of view on Sinessec here,
giving this, I guess, free plug for them because I do believe in the good risk reward on this name.
That's your update.
Beautiful update.
I appreciate you calling out those tickers as well.
If you are in the audience
as we go around you're trying to build maybe a watch list or some ideas definitely encourage
you to check out these names mentioned on here and do your own due diligence check them out i know
i have done the same and a big shout out to this crew i've actually hit some really nice trades
just from ideas from this show so big shout out to the crew also make sure you follow these guys
up here that spend their time with us each and every Monday.
And with that said, Money Mark, you are up to bat next.
Well, wish I had something new to give you all, but I don't.
I'm just going to give you the quick update on the two that I've got.
Look, you see what's going on in the environment.
You see what's happening with the dollar.
You're seeing what's happening with currencies around the world.
What's happening right now is not good for currencies. And so you're seeing more and more
money shifting, especially when you see like the U.S. interest rate ratcheting up. That's the result
of all these foreign countries, all these foreign investors, all these threats about getting rid of
tax breaks for foreign investors and things like that. It makes
them want to sell U.S. bonds. Well, when you do that, what do you get in exchange? You get U.S.
dollars. Well, what do you do with those U.S. dollars? Well, you either convert them back to
your own currency or maybe you put them in something you consider safe like gold. And so
you see gold has been going through the roof i have never liked gold in fact i
don't own gld or physical gold right now but i do recognize that gold is up 50 since it broke out of
its long-term channel it continues moving up and that is positive for the gold miners if the expense
for the gold miners if the expense also does not go up a lot right so selling
gold is their revenue and the drills and the oil that's needed to run those
drills is the expense well you see oil futures have dropped in April from seven
from the 70s to the 60s it was like a 10-point drop at one
point so obviously gold miners are seeing lower expenses and much higher
revenues so GDXJ that is the junior gold miner ETF that continues to do very
well it's actually up today again things been ripping all along and then geodrill g-e-o-d-f
for you canadians it's g-e-o but g-e-o-d-f is a company that the gold miners call to pull that
gold out of the ground for them they are going gangbusters right now. They have full capacity. That's not a usual event in the
industry. They're looking for more drills. They've always been opportunistic about adding more drills
and growing at a measured pace. The CEO owns 40% of the company and started the company with one
drill, made enough money to buy another drill, double that, double that, double that. They now have 100 drills. And he said a couple of years ago, somewhere around 100, I'll probably sell the
company. Well, now they're there and he's looking for more drills because of what's happening in
the industry. So that just means more growth, more revenue, more profits for GeoDrill,
as well as the gold miners. And finally you want defense so it's basically
gold and defense you see trump uh said he wants a 12 increase right he's trying to cut government
spending but he wants to increase something in a gd you know this is an economy that grows at two
or three percent won't grow that much this year. He wants 12% increase in defense spending.
So you want to find those defense names.
Right now, I think on a speculative basis, I'm favoring TPCS.
91% of their business comes from government defense programs where they are the sole source.
And the company has a market cap of about 25 million they've received recently over 20
million of free money from the government to bolster their capital equipment for the orders
that are anticipated to come um this year in the years to come so there you go g-e-o-d-f
t-p-c-s and gdxj TPCS and GDXJ.
Money Mark, let me ask you one follow-up question.
Just gold in general right now.
Do you think this thing just keeps screaming?
Do you have any thoughts around just gold in general?
Well, I mean, it depends on how the situation continues unfolding.
But at the end of the day, you talk about some some of the largest holders of u.s bonds china
you know and so china is out there and china's been selling u.s you know um treasuries for a long time now they started a while back and so we've known that they've been a big seller
of u.s paper and a big buyer of of gold And now, you know, that Trump is in office,
and this is for better or worse, I'm apolitical. I don't make political statements. I'm just here
to make money. We do know that Trump is engaged in an economic war with China. And one of the
ways that China can fight back, right, and we can't point the finger. But it is conspicuous that we start a trade war with China.
And not long after that, our interest rates start going through the roof by virtue of bonds being sold off.
OK, bonds collapsing, interest rates rising.
Who's doing that?
Maybe China, because they know if interest rates skyrocket, that kibosh is Trump's plan.
Then he
has to back off on the tariffs. So you have that going on. And the more that that occurs,
the more likely it is that China is going to buy more gold with that money that they're sitting on.
Yeah, I appreciate that color there. A lot of people talking about gold miners gold in general
obviously and that whole situation around that appreciate you sharing your thoughts there
money yeah i would yeah the only thing i would just be careful of is just keep an eye on the
charts because we um and and maybe dougie fresh can talk about this i'd love to hear his thoughts
because this thing is just beating screaming straight up you know we're up more than 50
in a little over a year on gold.
And I don't know if we're reaching a short-term overbought level or whatnot.
I would love to hear from him on that.
That's the only thing I would caution there.
But the long-term trends continue to be in place until this thing gets figured out.
Yeah, it's super interesting on the chart.
I mean, you look back, some will claim it's a five-year consolidation breakout. Some will even go back like 20 years and say this is a consolidation breakout on gold. And then you have these other factors driving it. It is, in my opinion, and Dougie, I'm going to come to you next, but it is overbought on a lot of metrics, but overbought can stay overbought. We've seen that. Just like oversold can stay oversold in a lot of these names right now.
So that would be my word of caution.
Yeah, and it's very clearly a 12-and-a-half-year consolidation pattern.
I'll put that in the Jumbotron.
For those you see the IWM chart in there, I'm going to put the goal chart in there next.
Stay tuned.
Take me just one minute.
Perfect.
Yeah, we'll watch for that up top.
Dougie Fresh, go ahead.
Jump in.
Any thoughts you have around what Money Mark was just mentioning?
And then anything that you're watching yourself?
Yeah, the gold is crazy.
It's up at the top right now.
And I think it is about to run up.
It looks like it's just kind of pulling back.
It wanted to peak out, to be honest with you.
And that's what I was looking at last week.
It got into the top and started to pull back out and now it's curling up and whenever they start curling back up like that
and they want to get back into the top that's where you usually see a nice big run so i am
definitely keeping an eye on gold and i love that godf that money mark's been talking about i mentioned
it last week when we were going through them and i was saying you know just watch it's it's over
over to 50 right now and it's not looking bad if it has any kind of pullback you're
gonna look at it in like that 199 it's at 206 and uh it is getting set up to continue to run up it
just it's been running up it like it just ran up from down here at like 175 and i've been watching
it just from money mark never heard of it before but i'm telling
you it is great and just going around like jnug and all of them are just looking really really
good at the moment so and again they're just all the way at the top and they want to curl back up
like jnug today ran around it got up to 81 18 and now it's at 75 13 and uh like i said they kind of
ran up and then they just want to they
look like they want to curl back up in there and run so i'll keep you guys posted as they go on
i'll be posting about gold because it does if it gets in that top rolls back up there it's going to
soar and it's going to be a really good soar and it looks like it's making a base like jnug
at like that 75 area and even like gold uh g-o-l-d barrett gold looks like
it just pulled back to its support line right about that 20 hours it's at 20 25 and that looks
like it wants to fly so yeah i think gold is looking really good right there so i will definitely
be watching them and then that a-r-e-c we talked about it last week it was jumping around today but
we were talking about the coking coal.
All of them ran up this morning, but you had to be on WeBull.
They were all early morning poppers.
The charts did look really good to run, and then they obviously all pulled back with the market.
But all of them ran up this morning.
And even that AREC could be making a nice little base right there at that 125.
They were the ones that had the good news.
So they looked like they could bump up.
And the other ones aren't looking bad.
They're just pulling back with the market, but all jumped up early this morning.
And then I've just been watching that WOLF, the wolf, and the other wolf.
So the wolf speed is WOLF.
And these things are down at the bottom.
They've just been jumping around.
It's down six cents today.
But it's Thursday.
It was running up.
And then today it's just kind of running around.
It crossed through the MACD.
It's not looking bad right there for the WOLF.
And then the wolf speed or the WULF, TerraWolf.
And crypto actually just pulled back a little bit.
I don't know if you noticed, but Solana went back to 135 and bitcoin's back to 87 it was like pushing over 88 a little bit ago so big i
don't know what happened but it did pull back just as we were starting to show i saw uh solana and a
few of them come down a little bit i don't know what i was looking around i didn't see anything
it could just be the market and then that wulf usually runs with uh crypto i don't know
if it's it's a capital market one i don't know if it's tied to crypto or if they buy crypto no idea
but it is getting set up here just as crypto was so i'm going to be looking at crypto the charts
don't look bad they just kind of pull back a little bit they were looking great earlier and uh yeah definitely keeping my eye on gold so you
have your jnug and jnug and then your nugt look at these things like i said they were run up way high
this morning and pulled back and i think they are trying to get set back up it could be a great
opportunity on a dip so if uh i'll keep posting about them this afternoon right before the market
closes we'll look at them again and see if they really want to rip into that top tomorrow.
So that's what it looks like.
And yeah, that BYRN to me and Benny was asking about it last week, burning it did top out.
And I'll be honest with you, that's not a bad one.
Just watch for that pullback.
It is a good one in the channel and it could pull back into like that $18 area.
It's at 1991.
It almost hit Ben's target point on Thursday. It was really close. It was running back up too. And then you could just tell
it started to lose that momentum. So yeah, watch for that to pull back into your 18 and ride it
back up. So that's what I have. And any charts that you ever want me to look at, please feel
free, shoot them over to me and I'll check out anything. I love the charts, and that's what I see for gold.
So keeping an eye on it, I think we might get that crawl up
and a big pop-up there.
So I'm definitely watching for that one.
Hey, Dougie Fresh, nice calling that Berna.
I did sell most of it Friday.
I just put it in our chat room during the show here.
Nine minutes ago, you just mentioned 18.
I just said, let's look to Reload Berna, 18 to 19 support.
So we're on the same page on that Berna.
We always are, Ben.
That's why I love you guys.
Your Discord's amazing, guys.
I'm telling you, you guys are on point, Godfather.
The whole show, I'm telling you, this show is amazing.
Everybody on here, Ariel and Kyle, everybody's smart when he's on.
Everybody gives great advice. And we're experienced. I say experience.
We all have great experience and a lot of experience. And you can tell these everybody on here comes from a little bit of a different background.
But, you know, when we're all lining up together on certain things, you know that it's going to be pretty much the right call you could tell we all had the same sentiment and like i was saying on thursday's page uh show if it did if we
didn't get that uh trump tweet yesterday it was gonna look bad and uh we we kind of figured you
guys were all over and coming down i was just looking for a tweet to see if he was gonna try
to pop it back up and obviously we didn't so yeah i love this show and i enjoy doing
it with you guys any like i say anyone wants to look at any charts or have a question about any
of them feel free to shoot them over to me and i do them all the time so thank you guys dougie real
quick before we get the next person make it quick because we're late um what do you think of silver
here uh you know i'm thinking gold is you know so overblown top here that maybe you start
getting some movement into the poor man's gold because it's been underperforming a little bit
just quick thoughts on that silver shirt so slv right there that i share silver trust i look at
it is uh it's sitting right on the 50 your 20 came back under it wants to curl up and that
looks like it wants to have a nice crawl up and i was not looking at silver before but i think i'm going to start looking at silver it's been run up it did run
up there um kind of topped out this one like 31 and now you're at 29 but i think you're about to
see another swing back up and they look like they wanted to come back down but that market just wants
these things to keep going just like the rare earths, the gold.
And I think the silver is going to look pretty decent, too.
So, yeah, I'm going to be watching these as well.
And the rest of the market's almost getting shorted down.
It's pretty bad.
If we didn't get that tweet yesterday and he is not keeping the market up, it's coming down.
You can see it.
It's in a bearish channel right now.
And so, yeah, you're going to see a lot of volatility and swings. But, swings but yeah silver is not looking bad I'm keeping my eye on silver and gold definitely so thank you for that
one too thank you much well fam take it yeah I'll definitely say definitely check out all these guys
as you're following them check out their different things I know the few guys are in a discord up
here that does fantastic work.
I mean, the Burn-Up lay alone, a shout-out to you guys.
I took it based off of hearing it laid out here and in one of our other spaces.
I'm up 26% on that equity alone.
That's nice in a down market, right?
Can't complain about that.
So big shout-out to Ben.
Let's keep it moving here.
We are going to go a little bit past the top of the hour. We
have a little bit of space behind this one until power hour. So we'll continue on with the
conversation as long as people are around. Kyle, let's go over to you next and then we'll hit the
godfather. Yeah, I just noticed Berna's COO actually bought open market on Friday as well.
It wasn't like a large amount, but he did buy
on the open market. So that's also reassuring. In terms of like the stock that I'm looking at,
maybe taking a position in, it would be EasyCorp. It's E-Z-P-W. It's actually one of the stocks
that should do fairly well in a recession. I think it's up about 30% year to date. But the
thesis is pretty simple. They operate pawn shops in the United States and Mexico, and a couple more
in some other countries in Latin America. But the vast majority of the pawn shop should do very well
because they're based in locations or cities that have lower income
households. And those are the households that are probably going to be affected the most
by recession. And then they're going to use like a pawn shop to ultimately pawn items and ultimately
get some cash. It's not a very demanding PE by any means. I think it's like a 13, 14 today.
a very demanding PE by any means. I think it's like a 13, 14 today. It's projecting double digit
growth. And then when I look at like the forward PE with the estimates, it's like a 10 or 11. So
the ticker that I'm taking a look at, it's EZCorp, EZPW. They operate a lot of different
pawn shops and it should do fairly well if the market does pull back and we do ultimately go
to a recession.
Hey, Kyle, that's a great call. I wish I had thought of that myself. Incidentally, the CFO of TSSI used to be the CEO of EZPW, of a competitor to EZCorp or EZCorp itself. I'll
double check that. And he had high marks for this company as well as the
one that he was with. So I'll double check that. Also, just wanted to chime in on that one. They
also give collateralized loans. So in other words, you've got a situation where whatever
inventory they have, the tariffs are making inflation occur. So the inventory of products
they have is increasing in value.
But also the loans that they make high interest rates on those loans.
But those loans are collateralized by product that they get from the customers.
Say, yeah, here's my Rolex.
Lend me a $5,000.
So great call on that one.
I'll shut up.
I want to hear the rest.
Yeah, that's actually a really good point.
I don't exactly know how much gold and inventory they have today, but I do know on the last
conference call, they said they have a very large and successful gold business.
So what that means is as gold goes up, then they'll probably also do well.
So I think there's actually two catalysts really driving it.
The gold business is probably going to do very well as gold goes higher and higher.
And then it's also going to do well if people start pawning more items.
So the ticker is EZPW EZCorp.
Yep. And that was the CFO of TSSI was working with him.
There is a competitor. I'll look that up as well.
And in that business, that would also be a good comp for that one.
Thanks, man.
Yeah, no problem.
And then that's it for me.
I'll pass it on to someone else.
I know we're at 2 p.m. now.
Yeah, no worries, Kyle. Appreciate that.
I did see that story on the Easy Pond thing the other day
with them buying out some of the Mexican pawn shops.
It hit my radar just because I live down here.
But good call out on that.
Godfather, you are up to bat next.
Just a couple of notes on EZPW. I've looked at this also. The comp that you're probably thinking of Moneymark is
First Cash, FCFS.
Trades at a much higher multiple. It's a larger company.
We had this catalyst with the EZPW.
I think it was around April 1st
when they successfully got this debt deal done
that everyone was looking for.
But this is a company that's essentially been used
as a piggy bank by Philip Cohen, who's the executive chairman and controlling shareholder.
So, I mean, if you look at the executive compensation and stuff, it's usurious.
But anyway, I'll leave it there.
FCP.
I'm sorry.
F.C.
P.S.
F.C. F.S. pardon me, is the comp.
So if you're looking for a little more of a blue chip name, that's one to go to.
But certainly that thesis on the pawn shops in recession makes some sense.
And on that theme, one of the other names that I'm looking at is Dollar Tree.
If you pull up a chart on this, if it breaks through 80, that would be a big level to the upside.
I've been waiting for that to happen.
It keeps flirting with it.
But yeah, I think what's going on in the macro markets suggests those are probably pretty good places to look.
So look, I'm going to throw out a bunch of tickers that I've mentioned in these been given all of those designations by the FDA
or are in specifically competitive, advantaged positions that have selling, price, leverage,
price, leverage, you know, various boxes that get ticked, solid management, large backlogs,
et cetera. But I would say again that, you know, this isn't the type of market that's going to
reward playing offense. These tickers that I'm going to throw out, these are all names that you
should have on a watch list. These are names that you could, you know, pick away at on
weakness. I think they're all great for long-term accounts. And some of the tickers are ASPI,
V-E-R-V-A-G-X, Mind, M-I-N-D.
These are all names that, again, for various unique reasons, I think deserve to be watched as small caps.
On the gold side, if there's a place anywhere that offense has been rewarded, it's certainly been here.
I think we're at 55 new highs this year alone in
gold. The top three ETFs for gold have seen over $14 billion in inflows. We've outperformed the S&P
just by holding GLD by over 30%. And a lot has been said about this already, but, you know, it's hard to find a vehicle that,
you know, actually benefits from pretty much everything that's going on right now, which is
an increase in fear, an increase in inflation, a decrease in the dollar, an increase in rates.
You know, all of these things are tailwinds to gold.
In addition to that, of course, you've got de-dollarization or diversification of foreign currency reserves.
All of this plays into gold.
If you think that gold is extended in terms of the yellow metal price itself,
again, these ETFs where you don't have to take
individual company risk, I think makes some sense. And I think, you know, we could still have
a 10 plus 15% correction in gold, which you might see almost immediately if we get some sort of
tariff resolution. But I think the impact will be relatively muted on the gold miners. So more
on the gold miner side than on the juniors, which again are going to trade on sentiment to the gold
price because it's just simply a revaluation of their reserves in the ground. But the gold miners,
I've mentioned this before, and it was just mentioned or alluded to by MoneyWork,
I've mentioned this before, you know, and it was just mentioned or alluded to by MoneyWork.
They are benefiting from their cost inputs of energy prices going in the opposite direction to the commodity price.
And we are seeing buybacks increase.
We are seeing dividends increase.
You know, the debt levels aren't really that high at these large cap gold miners.
The debt levels aren't really that high at these large cap gold miners.
They're still, for the most part, trading at discounts to their net asset values.
And these guys are going to see, even with a 20% pullback in GLD, a continued surge in free cash flow.
So I know this is a small cap show and, you know, GDXJ and JNUG have been thrown out there.
But again, these are levered to the gold price on a sentiment basis.
You can go up the curve and buy an NU GT, which gives you exposure to those large cap names, which I actually think is a better way to play if you're going to play, you know, gold mining equities.
So I'll leave it at that. Oh, the other last pick that I wanted to reiterate here,
you've heard me say this before, you know, investing is hard. Try to find ways to do it
where the wind is at your back. We've talked a lot about long side ideas. There's no reason why
you can't short where the wind is at your back these days.
A name that I've thrown out before, and I'll throw it out again, GRRR, Guerrilla Technologies.
I've reiterated in our Discord, every time this thing gets up into the $19-$20 range, I reshort it.
It's down 14% at $16.50.
It's actually getting to that level where I would think about covering it again.
I haven't yet.
But look, this is a glaring fraud, in my opinion.
We've had short reports out on this by at least three different shops.
Um, their backlog is phony. Um, their technology is, uh, well, I don't think it exists, frankly.
Their backlog is phony.
Um, so, um, their existing customers, there's massive amount of concentration in those,
um, you know, Citron, Bear Cave, Culper have all come out negative on this. There's an excellent
report by Culper. It's over 30 pages long. I would have all come out negative on this. There's an excellent report by Culper.
It's over 30 pages long.
I would recommend everyone have a look at this.
I think this thing is ultimately going to be a donut.
What was the ticker on that one?
GRRR.
Thanks, buddy.
They're talking about building data centers in Egypt that frankly don't exist.
They're talking about building data centers in Egypt that, you know, frankly, don't exist.
They're talking about contracts in Thailand that they are, you know, they talk about a 50 to 60 million dollar contract with the Royal Thai police.
Well, there's a law in Thailand that if you have a contract that's over 60 thousand dollars, you know, it has to be publicly published.
You know, any public tender offers and procurement announcements, you know, it's thought that this 50 to 60 million dollar deal that they're touting is actually worth around $25,000.
So, you know, no deal has actually been announced.
actually been announced. This one Amazon deal, which makes up a big chunk of their backlog,
is look and see who's involved in this. It's convicted fraudsters from Brazil and Dubai.
I mean, it's just everywhere you look on this thing, it's a red flag. So, you know, that's been
a money-making machine for our discord. And yeah,
I would encourage everyone to put alerts on their screen and short this
thing when it goes back up over 19,
which it for some reason tends to do.
It's a high beta name.
So when you get a bit in the market,
it's,
it's going to go up with the rest of the market.
But,
you know,
have confidence in the fact that this is ultimately a
zero. So, yeah, that's where I would play offense. Otherwise, I would keep those tickers
on your screen and, you know, buy a little bit, you know, one time a week or something until we
start to see, you know, some clarity on tariffs here and or start to get down to levels that I mentioned on the S&P,
which would indicate we're at historical valuations where the risk reward starts to
favor getting a little bit more aggressive to the long side. And then Godfather, you actually
mentioned this a couple of minutes ago, but for the ticker MIND, an article actually came out last week that said
the Trump administration may be looking at doing an executive order for mining minerals at the
bottom of the ocean. So people that aren't familiar with mine, I'll keep it really short,
they make equipment that helps primarily oil and gas today do deep-sea mining and use sonar and all of that.
But if that executive order does come to fruition, then MIND should do really well because they sell equipment that helps people do all of those deep-sea excavations and all of that.
So I know you mentioned a few minutes ago, but that's one to watch if that executive
order does come out for MIND.
Hey,
mine,
I did really well on this after the
last earnings report. I think
when it first made its way into
our community, look at what it did
December 10th, I guess.
It was a huge move
from $4 or $5 to dollars to 11 it looks like earnings
is tomorrow is that actually my yeah earnings earnings is tomorrow and that chart is set up
i'll be watching this around the earnings too this thing looks pretty good off that
yeah they had an excellent excellent earnings report i was all over it and i don't think
there's any reason to believe that this earnings report will not be as good.
I don't know. I don't remember.
I actually, I'm a part of another community, and I actually saw an interview of the CEO less than a month ago.
And based off that commentary and what he was saying is more and more of the business is starting to become recurring because they do a lot of the equipment maintenance.
So, yeah, I would take a look at mine after what happens tomorrow.
A lot of the revenue is recurring now, so it should do fairly well.
And the backlog is actually at historical highs today.
That is something to take a note of, though, because if we do enter a recession,
the backlog could drop. So I would really take a look at that backlog tomorrow and see if it's
higher than what it was last earnings as well. So I'll just make a couple of comments on that.
Yes, about 40 percent of the revenue is now recurring. And, you know, this is spare parts,
repairs, you know, field service, training support, these types of things.
And this is actually, you know, the highest margin part of their business as well.
So, you know, you've got that.
The backlog has been growing.
You know, what's and I'll make a little correction to what you said, Kyle, their technology is it doesn't penetrate that far. So it's not used
so much by the oil and gas side as it is used for sea bottom mapping for installation of offshore
wind, or it's used for security applications, those types of things.
Certainly the mineral side of things, it's more for that.
But look, I came across this company at the time they were doing that capital structure change that Ben alluded to.
Ben alluded to. And it ran up to 10. And I looked at it then. And frankly, I thought that the
And it ran up to 10.
valuation could support that even at those levels. And here we are basically right back to where we
were at the time that they did this capital structure change. So look, this is a company that's got, you know, three and a half million in that cash
or in cash and no debt. It's a low float company. They've got a best in class market leading
technology, which is evidenced by the fact that all of the large users use them. So, you know,
I've said this many times on these small cap spaces, if you can find
best in class products that exist in a small cap company that's unknown and under followed,
I think there's maybe one analyst that publishes formal estimates on this, and that's trading at
a compelling valuation. But that's also seeing, you know, margin expansion on top of the fact
that they are consistently profitable, then you got a winner on your hands. And, you know,
this is one of those few companies that, again, ticks all of those boxes. And, you know, frankly,
in a market like this, where nobody really wants to focus on small caps, you know, this is the type
of company that, you know, falls into that baby out with the bathwater type category.
Yeah, you're spot on.
It's up to about 300 meters.
I was just taking a look at it.
Awesome.
Good stuff.
I actually just added some mind in my swing account
and alerted my community on that.
I like that.
I'll take an ER bet on that.
All right, did we go around the horn, Emp?
Yeah, I believe we got to everyone,
so I was willing to leave it open here for another minute or two
if anybody had any final comments or other plays maybe we didn't get to?
I don't think I have any other comments here.
Yeah, I'm good.
Looking forward to this week.
We're always looking for that alpha.
And I'll say
good luck to everyone.
Yeah, beautiful.
Well, hey, what another great show.
Every Monday we do this at 1 Eastern with the Small Cap crew.
Make sure you follow all these great speakers up here.
Money Mark, Dougie Fresh, The Godfather, Kyle, and Ben from Story Trading,
and Ariel from Catalyst Capital Markets was also up here a little bit earlier
giving his thoughts.
But appreciate everyone that tuned in.
And once again, check out these guys.
There is some major alpha being given here from the cautionary side of the general market
all the way to some granular picks that have really played out very nicely in a down market,
let me add there.
So shout out to everyone that joined.
And next, we will have our power hour
space on stocks on spaces at the top of the hour. And then after that, we will have our stock picks
for the week show right here on Wolf Financial. Maybe you'll see a familiar face on that show,
as well as several other great minds that are trying to beat the market as the market has been
coming down and done a pretty good job of that. We've actually found some really interesting picks throughout this. So appreciate everyone
that tuned in today. We will see you guys if you're looking for the Small Cap Show
next Monday, once again, at 1 p.m. Eastern. And we will see you guys on our other spaces.
Take care, everyone. Thank you.
