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SMALL CAP INVESTING
Recorded: July 28, 2025 Duration: 1:03:24Space Recording
Short Summary
In a dynamic market discussion, experts highlight the upcoming FOMC meeting as a pivotal moment that could catalyze significant movements in both traditional and crypto markets. With bullish sentiments echoing the late 1990s, the conversation underscores the importance of liquidity and emerging trends, particularly in AI, that may drive growth across various asset classes, including cryptocurrencies.
Full Transcription
Thank you. Thank you. What is up, everyone?
How are we doing?
Happy Monday.
It's July the 28th, our last Monday of July here.
And it's time for the Small Cap Show that we run here at 1 p.m.
Eastern every Monday on Wolf Financial with a lot of great investors, traders, and just market minds in general.
Excited for this conversation.
I saw, well, we had Money Mark there for a second.
We'll get them right back up.
But either way, I'm excited for this conversation.
As always, a little market update.
We are break-even on the S&P.
We're break-even on the Russell.
And we are still green on QQQ.
And yeah, I'm excited to see what everyone's thoughts are. We still haven't got any type
of pullback in a little volatility. Now there's a Palantir headline that just came out a few
moments ago around the Department of Defense or something like that. But either way, I'm ready
to dive into it a little bit. Ben, I want to go ahead and turn it over to you and let you kick us off with kind of your market sentiment thoughts.
Okay.
Well, look, I've been getting absolutely trashed in the past seven days.
My performance and my execution took a turn for the worse.
And part of that was because I've been anticipating a possible deep correction in August so
like every time there's volatility and something goes down I'm like oh that's
the beginning of the correction let me get out so there's been that and then
there has been aside from that a very poor breath and and especially in risk
assets and a lot of choppiness and risk assets. We're seeing like SPYQQ doing great.
And, you know, that's something that I've had a beat on.
I've seen that coming.
But generally, you know, I don't really trade SPYQQ.
I'm trading individual risk assets.
And the nature, the character of how risk assets have been trading has changed.
Let me actually, I can get the exact date for you.
I remember I put it in my morning note, but I think it was July 18th.
I think it was two Fridays ago when I noted the character of how these stocks were trading
were a lot different.
Catalysts were being sold off.
Gap opens were being faded all day long and just extreme chop and volatility throughout
all day long and just extreme chop and volatility throughout the day.
the day.
So underneath the surface, it's been really hard.
And that's also, by the way, it could be a warning sign for what could happen for SPI QQQ.
You know, I previously was worried about August 1st and thought, you know, I think I mentioned
this on the morning show this morning, like no matter how overbought you may be, no matter how heated the RSI is,
you usually still need a catalyst to spark a correction, okay? And if there is no catalyst,
you just keep going and it just keeps getting frothier and frothier and then, you know,
weaker and weaker catalysts will eventually spark that correction.
So I had been of the mindset that maybe August 1st, the day that the tariffs kick in, would be a good excuse and a catalyst to set off an August correction, but that's no longer
on the table, I don't think.
I don't think there's any more surprises for August 1st.
We've got all these great deals with Japan and EU and China's kick down the road.
So I think all the focus now shifts to FOMC on Wednesday.
And now there's your catalyst, right?
If Powell does not have any kind of dovish tone at all or flexibility or hints that he
may cut rates soon, if it's still like, you know, we don't know, we don't know nothing.
Like, we need more time to see how the tariffs impact.
Like, if he's just repeating that, you know, that could be the catalyst for a correction in August and vice versa.
You know, if he gets dovish, actually, I think he can have a – even though we're overbought,
I think he can have a really crazy move to the upside because I think everyone,
a lot of people are expecting and positioning for a correction in August.
And if Powell surprises with some dovishness,
we could get a lot of people positioned off sides
and he got like a short squeeze situation going.
But that's not my base case right now.
I'm a little bit surprised today, to be honest with you.
I thought we'd be a lot stronger today after that EU news.
And I thought we'd have a little bit of a party for two days heading into FOMC Wednesday.
And that didn't transpire.
transpire caught me off guard, to be honest with you. And I'm usually pretty good at predicting
It caught me off guard, to be honest with you.
like the day-to-day macro or kind of the swing macro kind of look. And when I'm wrong on that,
it could also be a major warning sign, right? When you don't rally on good news and, you know,
the opposite happens. So, you know, I'm kind of leaning back towards this August correction is going to happen.
And we just have to, you know, we still have to wait to see what Powell says.
But if nothing crazy happens either way with Powell on Wednesday, I think we are set up for that August correction.
So that's my macro view.
So that's my macro view.
You know, a little disappointed.
I'm a little disappointed.
I got excited that we can squeeze a couple good days out before Powell after this Euro deal.
But it didn't happen.
And yeah, hopefully – I kind of hurt myself over the past week anticipating this correction, which just caused me to sell the bottom each and every single day.
Something spikes down. I'm like, oh shit, the correction's starting early. Let me get out.
So it's been very hard for me. It's actually been my hardest stretch of the entire year here in the past six days.
Despite some really crazy banger calls, especially AMD.
I called AMD every step of the way with a 174 swing target from like four or five days ago and hit 174.70 today. I made money on it, but not enough to make up for everything else. To be honest with you,
in my trade account, I feel like this is an environment where you should be mostly cash
and just trading like one or two, you know, picks a day. But I haven't transitioned to that. I've just been so accustomed to having a portfolio of risk assets and also so accustomed
to jumping on catalysts really quickly.
I've been paid very well this year for being fast on a positive catalyst and the exact
opposite of happened in the last six days.
Being fast to a positive catalyst has usually led to you buying a gap that's faded all day.
So I've had a very hard time.
It's the hardest stretch, and I'm having trouble adjusting.
I've been here before.
I know what to do.
It's just psychologically very hard to adjust to a different kind of market character that we're seeing right now.
So that's my macro outlook, and we'll see what other folks have to say.
and we'll see what other folks have to say.
Yeah, Ben, it is tough on the trading side of things
to pull back and not do anything.
I mean, there's multiple schools of thoughts, of course,
where you could, okay, well, I'm just going to keep trying
if I'm right 14 times and then wrong in the last time.
Like, okay, big deal.
You know, net-net, 13 wins, basically.
It's a good spot.
But it is tough with these all-time highs to kind of like
do i pull back do i keep going do i just sit and wait and do nothing like it's very interesting it
is tough it is tough like even if it's like amd right i had a 174 target there's also resistance
there but when you get these targets it's so psychologically difficult for me because like
all right we got to that target but if we break above it and you break above that target, then you can have a short squeeze to the next target.
Like, it's either the beginning of another huge leg up or it's, like, the end, right?
So, like, when you're at these, you know, targets and levels and these tops, it gets very tricky.
Because we also saw what happened earlier this year with QQQ SPY.
We reached that 200 DMA and that China news came over the weekend and boom, everyone is caught off sides and he just exploded to the upside.
So it's a tricky place, tricky place we're at right now.
Money Mark, I saw your hands are up.
Now, give me one more minute.
I'm in transit somewhere and I'll chime in.
Just about a minute.
Okay.
How about Catalyst, the capital?
Hey, guys.
Ariel here.
So, you know, I haven't been on for a little bit, but I've been listening and, you know,
always appreciate the perspective here.
I love this show.
And I can tell you from my, you know, just viewpoint, it's a little wonky.
Like, I don't even know where to go from here
just because all these good companies rip like oracle had an amazing quarter right and then they
say we can't we can't develop these things fast enough and rips and then amd was an obvious one
i played that wrong completely uh because i thought oh it's going to go higher and then it's
going to go back down and and i couldn't agree with you more. And I hate agreeing, quite frankly. I want the
other view. I want to go opposite. But I just, I don't know. It doesn't feel right. Something in
my gut just tells me I've been around and I've been trading 20 plus years and whatnot, banking
for that long too. And just doesn't, I don't know, something doesn't feel right for me. And I'm like starting to
short the market. I'm starting to buy puts. I have to offset it. I'm hedging. I'm buying
underlying stock like AMDL, which is AMD, but you could put more money to work and it's a 2X
leverage, but I'm also selling the calls. And that's what I'm doing right now. So I'm hedging on pretty much every bet unless I'm
buying some really fast flyers. I have noticed that the market's taking a little bit of time to
price in the proper valuation. So like what you said, you're quickly jumping on it. But I don't
look to trade when I jump on something. I listen to the quarters. And now, especially with all the earnings that are coming
through, it's so smart to just listen to the quarters. I can't help but tell the listeners,
like, guys, you know, yes, we're pretty good at helping you know what picks to buy and whatever.
But if you just hear the quarter, they tell you everything you need to know, right? Like,
it's just saying, hey, we're doing really well. We can't, you know,
build these fast enough. Look at AMD, for example, on the same stage with open AI and folks are,
you know, looking at, you know, like them being a backup. Well, if you did your homework, you'd
know it's an easy buy. Right. And that's the thing I would tell you is that I'm starting to look at
leaps. I'm starting to maybe if I go shorter term i'm selling the calls against my stock i hope the stock goes down this way i get it cheaper but
it requires homework it requires to you know do do the the work that it takes in order for you to
have conviction and then this environment convictions everything because like you just said
you know you're constantly selling it at the lows, buying at the highs. I've been doing the same thing, man. But thank goodness I kind of changed my perspective
and selling calls and hedging a little more. And that's my take.
Ariel, with all the... Great to have you back on the stage,
by the way, Ariel. So good to hear your voice again.
Just in general, right now, when you
look at this market and you look at where we're at, you look at all the earnings data, the Fed on
Wednesday, the jobs report on Friday, and then the seasonality mixed in. I mean, what is your
thought process here? Is it just kind of sit and wait? Is it either still pockets that you're
bullish on? I just want me through your overall approach on that yeah it's a great question and you know like my my take is i i'm looking at like a rare
rare earth says i i love that segment just because i'm constantly hearing scarcity they can't build
these uh i think was was airpods and you know fast enough there's just not enough of that so i'm
really leaning into that world but
i'm also being careful when it's frothy or something like a crml will peak at 550 and i'm
like oh boy you know i got to get out of that one you know like and there there are different
companies that you could look at uh with industries that have tailwinds like again you know the the
likes of some of the big you know names like the AMDs of the world, that was an easy one, right?
But I'm actually looking at companies that have earnings.
I'm back at that game.
When I'm worried about the markets, I'll look at a company like Math, M-A-T-H.
I'll look at that because I know they have crazy earnings.
I'm not as afraid to buy them, right?
The fast flyers, the fun, you know, kind of trades, lottos.
I love playing that, guys.
I'm not going to lie.
I love it so much.
But I'm doing less of that.
I'm doing more of whatever the industry is.
But I like the tailwind industries, you know.
And I can go into more detail later.
But I just wanted to tell you, like like I'm more cashflow focused now. So I know I'm not gonna get smoked
on the next earnings or the market goes down 5%. I'm going to be okay. You know?
Yeah, it makes perfect sense. Appreciate you running that down for us, Ariel. And of course,
love for you to chime in a little bit more throughout the conversation. But hey, Mark, are you in a better spot? Yeah, I'm in the capital of Moldova.
It was just heading towards the airport, going to Croatia and Montenegro over the next week or so.
So, but let's get into this. Yeah, this is my sweet spot. Exactly what you guys have been
hearing from these folks plays right into my strengths.
It doesn't always, you know, sometimes Ben has his glory and sometimes I have mine.
What Catalyst said is 100% true.
Your conviction, it's all about conviction right now.
What you guys are experiencing, in my opinion, is a critical juncture that we haven't been or experienced since 1998.
The market is at elevated levels.
No doubt about that.
By any historical measure, we are at elevated levels.
That doesn't mean we're overvalued.
It means we were elevated and the internet levitated it to a year in 1999 where the entire QQQ went up almost 200% in one year.
Now, of course, we know what happened after that.
The bottom fell out.
But we don't want to miss a move where from elevated levels, the queues go up an extra 200%.
Now, do I expect that to happen?
I think 100% would be kind of crazy, but it is possible because we have a confluence of
factors going on.
A lot of it goes back to liquidity.
The number one thing that 99% of investors don't know or underestimate
that is arguably the most powerful force in the stock market is liquidity. And we have a situation
right now where we got the stable coin legislation, which is going to unlock $3.5 trillion from the banks around America, unleash it around the world,
reinvest it back into treasuries, which will help solve the interest rate problem.
You got the big, beautiful bill, which is spending. That's more liquidity. You got the
tariffs if they work, right? And then you've got investments and productivity gains coming from AI.
It's just a tremendous setup that I have only seen once in my entire career as a tech investor
going back to, I started with stocks back in 1985, 86.
Only the second time I've ever seen this and the first time was 1998, okay?
So what do you do about it? You have to have conviction. only the second time I've ever seen this and the first time was 1998 okay so what
do you do about it you have to have conviction you still have to be in the
market hedges are cool but you have to own stocks that you know are absolutely
ripping right because that performance can offset a weak market as a whole.
Okay.
So, you know, for example, I've already sold my Kraken, Drone Shield, and TSSI, all multi-baggers, right?
But I'm not sure.
I'm not convinced they're done running.
The difference, though, is I know that they've reached points where it's not juicy fruit.
Know that they've reached points where it's not juicy fruit.
If the market goes down, they're going to go down with the market from these valuation levels.
You've got to be more picky.
So we'll talk about a few of those names in the stock pick section, right?
But the fact of the matter is, by my definition, we are back in a full yellow alert with all the markets.
But at the same time, we are at, let's call it risk, of a melt-up in the market driven by all those liquidity factors that I just cited off plus AI.
I can tell you as a tech professional of 30 plus years, I know exactly what's going on with AI right now.
Many, many companies, I know exactly what's going on.
And Blackwell is completely backlogged
and the entire ecosystem is completely backlogged.
Any company that is associated with a Blackwell buildout
is going to give you phenomenal quarters in Q3 and Q4 at the very least.
So if NVIDIA goes off the chain for the next two quarters, how far down can the Qs really go?
Because that means that the demand for AI is off the chain, which means that Oracle continues to be off the chain, Amazon, Microsoft,
all the hyperscalers, and everybody in that ecosystem.
So it's time to be picky, picky, picky.
Get rid of anything that you're not sure of and figure out what you're sure of.
And I'll be back at the back half of the show to let you know what I'm sure of.
I love that. Now, you mentioned 98 in there. If this is similar, you know, it could rhyme with 98.
Would that not mean we have two more years of just melt up?
Yeah, dude, we could. That's absolutely right. What we're seeing right now with this
confluence of factors, Trump wants to step on the accelerator in multiple fashions, right?
So you get all this liquidity. And one of the biggest risk factors with that is actually more so than a recession, right? Way more so than war.
People are afraid of recessions and war, all this tariff, blah, blah, blah. I won't believe any of
that stuff until I see it. Until I see negative effects, I'm not going to predict negative effects.
What I do see that I don't have to predict is immense demand for AI and
an immense desire on the part of this administration, whether you like him or not.
I'm a neutral. I don't care. My political party's money, right? It's very clear, though, that he
wants money sloshing around. So the biggest risk is that the dollar declines. And if the dollar drops, assets go up.
Gold goes up.
Bitcoin goes up.
Stocks go up when the dollar goes down unless there's a recession.
So, yeah, we're in a point right now where I certainly wouldn't short the market unless it's a hedge. I want to continue finding the
low-hanging fruit stocks, the stocks that are going to just completely blow the doors off the
joint over the next six months. And do I want to hedge those a bit? Sure. I can bet against
the Russell 2000 or something against those picks to be a little safe right in case the market does correct but
I'll tell you what back in 2000 March 9th in fact that's the day that the queues peaked okay the S&P
didn't peak for another eight months after that so you could have been losing your ass, sorry, for months in technology names, but continue to, but you, but somebody else was making money on the S&P. We could see a repeat of that or a reversal of that.
It's just so interesting, Mark, how your approach to all that is a little different than mine, a little more fundamentally steeped, and you have the experience from 98.
But you heard my comments right in the same place as you.
It just matches the technical picture so well.
Yep. well. And by the way, I've been pointing out that COVID crash and recovery, if you go look at that
chart so far, it's identical. And if the same thing happens, then that's another two-year
extension of the bull market. And if you really want to be identical with the COVID crash and
recovery, you get a four-week pullback and then it runs for two years. So it's just so interesting
how the technicals are lining up with your, you know, different, I guess, more fundamentally steeped observations there.
Yeah, well, I mean, there's a reason for that, right?
Like, we've got two really simple things.
You know, usually I can't give you that.
I can't give you.
I'm not a macro analyst.
But the macro and the micro are both extremely easy for me right now as a 30-year tech
analyst the number one theme right now being ai falls right in my wheelhouse and then seeing what
trump is doing it's it's so unambiguous right like whether you like him or not it's unambiguous what he's doing and and what that what the intent
is for the market so when until and unless something breaks as a result of what he is doing
it's it's still kind of all systems go regardless of what the long-term charts tell us and that's
and that's the issue that we're dealing with right now is that the charts look topped out,
but at the same time, do they really? I'd like to hear from Doug E. Fresh in terms of what he sees
in terms of momentum. I think Doug E. Fresh might be the most important person in the room
as we move forward from here because we're going to need a breakdown for... I think we're going to
need a breakdown for this to break, is really what what it comes down to because the demand for AI is just too strong right now.
And until I see a breakdown in demand from my sources,
like I did in late 1999,
from a fundamental perspective,
nah, it's all systems go.
Yeah, no, money market.
This market is pretty wild.
And you know, for about three weeks now i've been
a little cautious and that's what the spy and the mag seven and them yeah they're going up
they're not running like crazy you have a lot of mid caps and smaller caps getting wild i've been
crushing the penny stocks right now i mean they're hitting 100 percenters left and right
and i've been putting putting them on that uh night note ben check that
thing out things been fired dude i'm telling you i love it that's actually helped my game plan
every single day immensely so i took a little uh advice from you um just watching what you do
with your morning note which i told you i read it every day it's incredible and then i kind of
just factored it into my life and said i do do the market every night. Let me make a night note. And I'm telling you, our discourse fire now, because when you have a little downtime, that's where, you know, I can pick it up.
And we've been rocking and rolling with the small caps, penny stocks.
And honestly, I think when the market's at these levels, thank you, Money Mark, for saying, you know, to look at it.
I think I kind of shine at this area because it is hard to tell.
You can't tell fundamentally or anything. You really have to dissect this chart. And that's why for three
weeks I've been a little cautious. Not that I think we're going to have this huge pullback,
but we're going to see a tiny little pullback happen here. And you could be dead on the money
with the August 1st. It looks like it's lining up. And again, I don't even think we're going to
see a big pullback here.
I just think we're just going to see a little bit of pullback.
And then the charts actually pulled down more than the actual market does.
And then you're going to see this thing just explode.
It's going to catapult and go to like levels that we're not even used to.
So I think for the next week or so, Ben, I think it is a little smart to play it cautiously right here just to watch them.
And then I'm telling you, we're going to see something that you're seeing something happen here.
I can't pinpoint it.
You have the Fed speaking Wednesday.
I'm not exactly sure what it is, but something's going on in the market and you might have a little pullback.
You don't want to not catch that pullback
because it's going to be a beauty and this market's going to get ripping. And then again,
you just factor in exactly like what the administration's trying to do. Um, they want
the rates lower. Clearly maybe it happens Wednesday. I'm looking at the poly market here
and I'm telling you, these things could jump off a cliff either way. So they almost look like they
did the day of the election and the popular vote, which was crazy.
But yeah, so I've been watching that closely.
Not exactly sure it's going to happen, but they could mention something.
Something's happening here.
And obviously you have the midterms coming up, and this market has to be ripping for them to walk with the midterms.
That's clearly the agenda of the administration.
So you can just
see it and you can, it's brewing guys. I mean, these charts are brewing. And when you see them
getting up here, you got to be a little cautious because they're ripping so high, like Mark was
saying. And honestly, Ben, I thought the same thing today. I was like, wow, we're going to
have the greenest market. I thought it was going to be neon green this morning with that EU trade
deal. And then we were going to get a good two days up until Wednesday.
I really said it last night on the show.
I was like, yo, I can't wait for tomorrow.
It should be neon green.
And then I looked at the SPY first thing at 7 a.m.
And I went, wow, this doesn't look healthy right there.
And the SPY is down right now, like 64 cents.
So you can see it's just jumping around.
It's been in the top
there but again i don't think we're gonna have some huge correction coming up i just think you're
gonna see a little pullback and you catch them bottoms and it's gonna just be explosive so
that's what i see happening here and yeah like the spxs is that it's like lowest it's ever been
and that's the bear for the spy and uh And it's just curling up a little bit.
It wants to run up, but you can tell it doesn't want to get crazy.
So yeah, you'll see a little pullback, but holy cow, what a market.
And I've never seen anybody be able to control a market like this.
I've been doing it for over 20 years, so I missed the dot-com bubble.
But thank you, Mark, because I definitely went back, did a ton of research this week, and I was looking at a ton of charts.
And you're right, man.
I mean, you could see absolutely the same kind of setups happening here.
And, yeah, this thing could explode for another two years, guys.
And you'll obviously have to see some pullbacks, but they're going to be more or less healthy.
You're not going to see some huge correction.
So I do.
I think maybe a little pull back in august and holy cow hold on to your strap them seat belts on because
this thing's going to get ripping is what it looks like yeah you know the chart you want to look at
if you're wondering why the market's acting the way it is today gold acting the way it is today
look at the dollar my friend look at the chart on uup dougie fresh no i've been tracking
all them and honestly you know what it's been uh really good to uh finbiz changed like their
charting it's made it so much easier they put all these tabs up here they run it from four to eight
at 4 a.m to 8 p.m now but yeah i've been tracking all the money all the bonds and everything right
now because they made it so easy dollar and yeah and i've been a dollar as well and i've been tracking all the money, all the bonds and everything right now because they made it so easy.
But it's the dollar.
And yeah, and currencies as well.
And I've been looking at it.
Look at the USD.
It actually is up today.
Right.
That's what I'm telling you.
It's all about the dollar.
If you get all this liquidity, hit the market.
get all this liquidity hit the market if trump gets what he wants and all this liquidity floods
into the market and the dollar drops as a result it's going to be a continued melt up in these
assets and that's what you're seeing in the charts right now is this kind of which way do we go next
and if we blast up through some long-term resistance and when i say long-term i'm talking multi-decade you know trend line
levels we blast through those and you could have the short squeezes and you could see the melt up
i'm not saying it's going to happen but you have to be monitoring for it because we like you said
we have the makings of that right yeah no i'm just cruising through the usd right now and like i said
i'm glad that they made it so much easier for us.
And it looks like it wants to cruise up, but you can tell it's going to cool off.
It's not going to get through to 50 that's up there.
It's at $98 right here on here.
And yeah, it's at 103 is your 50.
And it does.
It looks like it's about to spike up.
But then when it comes down, that's probably where you're going to see a little bit of this pullback.
And it couldn't it could run around for a couple like a week or two, three weeks.
And then I'm telling you, you could just see it.
You could feel it.
And I can feel it on the charts.
It's going to get wild here.
So, yeah, I'm going to be following that USD as well and all them currencies.
So thanks, Marcus.
Yeah, you brought all that to my attention.
And it was I had a crazy week just looking at it all like, man, this is this is setting up for something you can see.
And and history loves to repeat itself. We all know that just like you were saying, Ben, with the whole covid set up and then it ran.
It's very similar to that. So it's a wild. So what so what percent so what percent gain do you think we've got left in the USD before it breaks back down?
Because that's when the market goes up.
The dollar going down has been driving the market Bitcoin and gold.
Yeah, no, I agree right there.
I think you see it come up a little bit more.
Like I said, I'm just looking on the Finviz here.
So it has them at like $98 for the USD right there.
You said just a little bit more.
Yeah.
I mean, it looks like it wants to spike up a little bit more.
It just got through the 50-day right there.
And your 200-day, I'm sorry, these colors are different.
The 200-day is all the way up at like 103.
It isn't getting through that.
But it's going to get somewhere.
And maybe it gets to like 101 right there because it's a pretty good resistance spot.
And it looks like a really good run up area.
And it could do it for the next two to three weeks.
Stair step up there and drive the market a little sideways somewhat.
And then if you sideways or yeah, and then you see that USD come back down.
You're absolutely right, Mark. That USD comes back down. Holy cow. The market's setting up the rip up. And
I never even noticed that before. So now you got my eyes on that.
Yeah, that's, that's what this is all about, my friend right now. This is what it's all about.
And this is the thing. That's what makes the macro so easy right now is that the dollar
is driving a lot of what's going on right now.
And Trump is driving what's going on with the dollar right now.
So you watch his moves and it's pretty easy to see.
And beyond that, I know the AI fundamentals are extraordinarily strong.
And so the dollar peaks out.
If the dollar gets ready to head back down, you said it's going to be another rip yeah
no i'll be watching this uh very closely i've been watching it but not as closely as i'm about to so
good uh heads up right there money mark and that's what we have so many different ideas and angles to
look at the market and then you bring things to our attention like this and we can really dissect
it a lot better so like i said i went back did my research after what you mentioned last week and here's another example
i'll be checking out this usd because you're absolutely right when it pulls back get ready
because the market's going to be ripping so good heads up on that money mark yeah good shit, brother. Thanks. Hey, Mark. Yeah, I don't know much about USD and bonds. Not my thing. I want to ask you, to what extent FOMC and Powell's decisions on interest rates, to what extent does that impact the dollar? And how important is the pivot from the Fed in the rosier scenario you were thinking about?
from the Fed in that, you know, the rose deer scenario you were thinking about?
Yeah. So, I mean, that's a great question because it's really, it's really a tale of two answers
because you're talking about near-term FOMC moves versus May. Okay. And May is when Jerome Powell is definitely no longer head of the Fed.
Okay.
May is when definitely whoever is in charge of the Fed is going to be chosen, right, based on their willingness to be dovish on interest rates.
So large institutions already have their eye on that. Honestly, me personally,
I don't care what happens with the FOMC. Now, this month, next month, I don't care really,
because May isn't that far away for somebody like me. It's nine months away. And the market,
the bond market is going to, and it already is, responding to the anticipation
that you're going to have somebody in charge of the Fed that's going to be predisposed to
lowering interest rates, regardless of what that means for inflation or anything like that.
Right? I mean, we'll worry about inflation if and when it comes. I know a lot of people have opinions on that,
but those opinions, to be honest, I don't know any economists amongst the top 10 richest people
on the planet. They don't rule the earth in terms of macro guys. They don't rule what goes on here.
What we do know is that the dollar is going to be flooded into the market.
We do know that interest rates are going to be heading down, all else being equal come May.
And we know that institutions aren't stupid enough to not look towards May. It's only nine months away.
Hey, Money Mark, something real interesting. Sorry, Ben. Real quick, every other uh dollar currency the charts look
like they're like jumping off cliffs right now like europe japan all of them in the usd is going
up so that's interesting i've never seen that before the dollar is driving everything right
now my man and i'm not i'm not an fx guy but you know when you have what's going on right now i mean we are
the most powerful country in the world and you've got the guy at the head making some of the most
aggressive moves you know and you can call aggressive positive or negative it doesn't matter
it's aggressive um he's moving he's moving the dollar he's moving the markets with these actions
He's moving the dollar.
He's moving the markets with these actions.
So it makes it really kind of easy to understand what to do, right?
You want to kind of go with the flow of the dollar and be very highly convicted.
You want experts on your side when you pick stocks.
You can't just pick willy-nilly because you're going to buy into a stock at the wrong time.
You're going to sell out of a stock at the wrong time
because it's going to be whipping you around.
This is when things whip around.
So, Money Mark, the dollar strengthening,
and again, not my area of expertise,
I assume that's related to these trade deals.
Can you walk us through that?
Why are we seeing that short-term pop
that you think is short-term in the dollar?
Bro, there's always a million moving parts that, you know, otherwise I'd be a FX guy. I could
predict where things are going next. The easiest answer is that you've got more buyers than sellers.
That's always the easiest answer. And it's an easy answer because short the dollar became one of the world's most crowded trades.
Okay.
So when everybody short the dollar, what do you think the dollar is going to do next?
It's going to bounce.
Right.
Now, short the dollar might be the right move, but nothing goes straight down in a line without a fundamental catalyst.
And the dollar doesn't have a fundamental catalyst to just fall off a cliff, right?
This is not like Argentinian type devaluation.
This is just a systemic move
on the part of the US administration.
So you're getting two steps down, one step up,
two steps down, one step up.
And right now we're in the midst of that one step up
that Dougie's keeping an eye on.
Okay, great.
Let's end, unless you have anything else, turn it over to the stock section.
Yeah, let's go ahead and jump into it.
Ben, you want to kick us off?
Yeah, I'll kick it off.
Since it's earnings season here, I wanted to go over that.
In the morning, though, in the weekly update, I put the schedule
out for earnings, curated lists of earnings of note for the week. And then I put a little
underline under each one that I have a little bias towards that I think either that I have a bias
that they could do well, or if they do well, it'll be an inflection point for the company. For example, like Teladoc.
I don't own it.
I don't want to own it now.
But I always keep my eye on it around earnings because they have big potential, but they've got to turn the corner.
They haven't turned the corner yet.
So going through this list in terms of small caps, one of them stands out.
And you know it well because I've talked about it here a lot.
Oh, shit. As I watch NBIS go up. PBI. So Pitney Bowes, we just killed it in our community.
It continues to be my largest position in my long-term account. In the short-term account,
it hit my target, which was, man, it blew it away. Was it 12.55? No, it wasn't 12.55. Hold on, let me go to the weekly chart.
Oh, yeah, here it is.
It was a spike on, it was 12.96.
So we played PBI for a move to 12.96,
which was our target for the earnings anticipation run.
It did that like a week in advance at 13.11.
Now it's pulled back to about $12.
So I have not reentered a short-term position yet in PBI, but gosh, I tell you,
I really want to. I got to figure out if I'm going to do that with common shares or options,
but I think fair value on this. And it's funny because I do some fundamental work,
not as in-depth as Money Mark or The Godfather Knows, who's not here with us this week.
We'll be back next week.
But both The Godfather Knows and I, we're on the same page in terms of, hey, this PBI is worth in the upper teens fundamentally.
And coincidentally, there's just a beautiful next resistance target on PBI at $17.
And for me, the trend is your friend and it's about four quarters in a row that pbi
every single quarter they come in and they keep on raising guidance and they keep on their cash
flow keeps getting better and better they keep on paying more debt off than they previously
previously said they would i don't know how they're doing it they keep cutting costs like
constantly it's crazy um but you know that's that's how that's how i do it like especially with earnings
i'm just gonna assume they're gonna do the same thing again so i think it's worth some form of
an earnings bet um in addition to my long-term shares so that's something i'll be looking at
wednesday after the close again have not entered a trade position yet but looking at either common
shares or re-entering some call options for the earnings on that. That's PBI in the small cap
world. There's a bunch of others here that I'll be looking at, but I just don't know as well to
speak intelligently about in small caps. There's TMDX, which is that organ transplant company that
flies around these organs all over the place. Pretty cool stuff. What is the market cap on that?
Let me just see. So I've traded this pretty successfully in the past. I do not own a position
of $3.5 billion. Earnings are Wednesday afternoon. Huge short position. You know, and the only
kind of clue that I have is what constantly goes around Twitter in terms of the flight
data. So it was right last quarter. Let me just see. Last quarter, yes,
you see that after the earnings report, it went from like 98 bucks to like 120 bucks the next day.
So it ended up being predictive, that flight data. And apparently, again, it's showing positive
trends for this quarter. But for some reason, they keep on shorting it. This is nine days to cover on TMDX.
If anyone is familiar with the fundamentals of TMDX or that flight data that everyone's looking at,
definitely would like to hear from you on that. But those are two small caps. I guess TMDX on the
edge of being a larger cap, or maybe it is like a mid-cap, I don't know. And there's many, many
other earnings reports here you can look at.
But those are the two that are on my radar.
Another one tomorrow morning, WGS.
I don't know it well.
Gene DX, they report tomorrow morning.
The Godfather News did some work on this.
We've traded it in the past.
They had a great earnings report last quarter.
Again, trend is your friend.
And they had some good news in between after the earnings report.
So that's another one I'm looking at tomorrow morning,
which I do think I'm actually going to swing common shares into that report
tomorrow morning.
So earnings week.
So that's my focus is looking at some of these earnings plays this week.
Yeah,
that's a PBI,
TMDX,
and WGS are the three that I have my eyes on.
Money Mark has a bunch of hundreds over there so what are you
talking about money mark let's go let's go money mark no I like the pics man I'll
give you mine real quick and then it's time for dinner by the way folks um I
don't I rarely plug myself and I'm approaching 7,000 followers here on X, so hook me up.
All right, so here we go. In this situation right now, you want to have conviction in your names.
You want to have safety in your names. You want to continue to play in case we get that melt up,
melt up. So you don't want to get out, but you don't want to be in names that are going to get
so you don't want to get out, but you don't want to be in names that are going to get smoked.
smoked. So what sectors are going to be safe in an environment where the dollar is going down?
Well, that's gold, Bitcoin. I don't play Bitcoin, but I can play gold. And the play on that has
been, I've said it for some time, Geodrille, G-E-O-D-F. They announced their call date.
I am confident they are going to give us a strong earnings report for obvious reasons.
I mean, gold is just ripping.
Everybody wants gold pulled out of the ground.
And Geodrill is the company that pulls the gold out of the ground.
52-week high on Geodrill there.
That's obviously 11th, right?
Next week?
I believe so, right.
About two weeks from now.
Yep.
So that's that one.
And then defense, right?
It doesn't matter what happens to the economy.
In fact, if the economy gets weak, the U.S. government will probably spend more on defense to fill that hole in GDP.
So defense,
nothing stops defense. And my play there is tech precision, TPCS. I haven't spoken about them in a
long time because they had a terrible board of directors that made some terrible moves,
including trying to buy a company that's bigger than them without a good stock price or any cash.
Don't ask me how they thought they were going to pull that off.
And the deal predictably fell apart.
And as part of that fallout, they had to issue 335,000 shares of TPCS to the parent company of the company that was going to be acquired, VOTOG.
Those shares came unlocked just a couple of weeks ago. And so I was like, I'm staying out of the way
because the 330,000 shares of this stock is a lot of days of volume. Well, guess what?
is a lot of days of volume. Well, guess what? People were waiting for it. The 330,000 shares
got soaked up in about two days. I got confirmation that those shares are now gone from the market.
It was a clear out trade. I wanted a part of, by the way, because I'm undefeated in clear out
trades. I have never not made money on a clear route trade. So as soon as I heard that those shares were cleared out without me even getting
a crack at it, I immediately bought more shares of TPCS in the market. These guys, 91% of their
revenue comes from defense programs where they are the sole source of the parts. We're talking submarines, where you hear
Trump saying, we need more submarines. And also the CH-53K helicopter, look that up, CH-53K,
and you'll see nothing but positive news. Everybody around the world wants these helicopters.
Same goes for the F-15EX. Those are their three three big programs and the governments around the world
are going crazy for this stuff um so nothing's going to stop that so tpcs finally uncorking on
that um intermap i mean they make 3d maps for countries and now with ai you got the big ai
players out there talking about they want a 3d map of the world in their LLMs.
And you've got drone navigation.
All these things are new major catalysts.
And InterMap is the predominant player in terms of 3D mapping of the world.
They've been doing great.
So that one continues to be high conviction.
And then finally, not necessarily
high conviction, but building conviction. And Ben, man, I got to tell you, I'm looking,
my best speculative idea, my radar right now, I'm not making an official pick or anything.
But the more I look at SNES, Synestec, the more I'm thinking this is a company that has tremendous risk reward.
Now, you don't want to put a big percentage of your portfolio in this, number one, because I haven't finished my research on it.
But number two, because there is tremendous amount of downside, but the upside is incredible.
You want to treat this like a call option,
right? You treat this like a call option. You might make 10 bags off of this,
but you got to be careful because this stock on a split adjusted basis is now five bucks.
It's all time high was 500,000 on a split adjusted basis, which means basically you can lose ninety nine point nine percent of your money on this stock So whatever money you put in just know that you could lose it all
But also know that the setup that I'm seeing here has the potential for five or ten bags
I'm still doing the research, but I wanted to give you guys a heads up
That's it for me today. Yeah, well, how can I not comment on Synestec?
For us, for a lot of people in our community, it's already been five bags.
I mean, we got first involved maybe in the $2 area, a $2.50 area maybe it was, $2.60,
$2.70, something like that, before the tariff crash.
It went all the way to $1.30.
And I know a bunch of people in our community were buying in the mid ones and mid ones all the way to five it's been
Incredible and just a full disclosure. I do own a lot of this
I do own a lot of it
I mean, just it will crush you if it goes down.
Will it crush you if it goes down?
It's pretty significant.
It's probably three or four percent of like all of my investable assets, which is pretty big.
That won't kill me, but it's a big amount.
It'll hurt. It'll hurt a little bit.
But in any case, well, stay tuned.
We're still doing our research on it. I've got five guys that have been researching this thing ever since you had the CEO on the first one.
So that's the amount of research. I like to do about 100 or 200 hours of research on a company before I go through this.
Yeah, that's beautiful. And just again, full disclosure is that Synestec does pay us to put them out there and do the CEO and COFO interviews
and all that kind of stuff.
Well, they don't pay me.
Right.
They don't just...
That's right there.
I'm not going to pick this name
unless I'm convinced that it's the real deal.
So very, very interesting story there.
All right.
Em, did you have any comments on that Mark stuff?
I'm all good on my end if we want to keep moving it around.
All right.
Let's keep moving around.
Hey, Mark, if it makes you feel better,
I do about three seconds of research looking at a chart before I make a
decision on if I'm going to buy it or not.
So he said 100 hours.
I'm ahead of him.
It's exploded.
Yeah.
I literally look at it for 3 seconds
and Senes is great, you might see a tiny
little pullback right here but
it's about to set up and go higher
so Ben was super
early and that was a great one
I have it on my list every night we go over
and it is a good one
Doug, take it away and then we'll go to
Catalyst, actually you know what let's go to
catalyst i don't think does specific stocks but just in case he wants to
yeah go ahead let's go catalyst first and then dougie you can comment on any of the
stocks we talked about plus your own catalyst here
okay i think ariel went to a listener i may have stepped away for a second i see spartan's on
though if you want to hop over to him yeah let's uh let's do that good idea ducky fresh uh spartan
welcome to the stage uh missed your market sentiment thoughts earlier but if there's
anything you're watching individual names sector names thematic love to hear about it
sure you guys can hear me all right yes sir all right perfect okay
uh a couple different things they've had a really nice run on the small cap side the last probably
month i think it's been some of the best small cap trading since probably 2021 and everyone
remembers that market um a couple different things really liking uh a lot of the biotech stuff kind
of coming off the lows i think you're going to get a breather in a lot of these treasury plays over the next couple days.
I think they'll come off a little bit more, and then there's probably going to be another opportunity there.
This vape kind of blew that sector out a little bit this morning.
Incredible move, of course, in trading that one intraday.
Small cap, I've been approaching it, and I kind of put out a video on this last week, and I talked about it many times here.
But, you know, I approach the small cap market right now from a momentum standpoint, mainly technical.
And I look for three things.
Typically, it's, you know, highly skewed risk board off the lows.
You know, I want to see like at least $2, $3 of room to the upside.
It could be $1 or $2 stock or even penny stock off the lows.
But I want to see that room. Typically, it's going to be a dollar or $2 stock or even penny stock off the lows, but I want to see that
room. Typically, it's going to be a beaten down name, right? Relative volume above one. And then
the third thing is going to be anything that I can see as a catalyst, whether it could be earnings
or it could be some form of a binary event coming up. It could be block buying. What I've done a
lot of research on lately, for for instance like last Monday I'll give
you some examples like DFL I we're on this thing at 17 cents I saw someone trying to accumulate
stock you're taking like 500k to 1.2 but they weren't letting the stock push higher we ended
up taking a pretty large position in that and the next day it pushed up to 66 cents and I've done
that in a few different names where I've seen, you know, kind of small buying or block buying where they're trying to hold the stock down. Pretty easy to look
for on that. You just go intraday chart and then, you know, basically go to a lower timeframe.
You can either look through the books or you can just look at the chart itself. And it should be
pretty obvious where these little spikes happen and they hold it down. If you do it over the
course of a few days and someone's trying to accumulate the stock. So that's been a good way
of, you know, finding these small cap earners.
Now, there's one that I'm on right now.
It's called X4.
I like this biotech name.
If you look at the fundamentals, you'll see that, you know, everything looks fine and dandy.
They got a lot of cash.
And, you know, their book value is very solid.
It looks like they're profitable.
profitable. That's actually from a warrant sale that happened last earnings. So a little bit
That's actually from a warrant sale that happened last earnings.
So a little bit confusing there.
confusing there. But regardless, the one thing I like about this name, and I do have a position
on it, full disclosure, is they have a lot of good biotech and basically institutional investors in
the name. And I think that's probably a pretty big green flag. So I think it's worth keeping an
eye on that. That's just starting to come off the lows. It had a flag. So I think it's worth keeping an eye on that.
That's just starting to come off the lows.
It had a big day.
I mentioned it on, I don't know, I think last Thursday.
Then a lot of volume came in after that,
and then kind of pulled back slightly.
But it's curling off the lows.
It's just reclaiming EMA support on the daily.
It's confirming.
It's got room to the 50 EMA, in my opinion.
I think you can get there.
So I do like that name.
There's a lot of these kind of biotechs that I think look decent off the lows that have been beaten down.
So that's primarily where I'm focusing at the moment.
I could change.
Now, this is not necessarily a small cap.
I mean, it might be now.
Let's take a look.
SRPT.
No, it's getting there, though.
I mean, it's been beaten down.
This name, obviously, has had a lot of drama with it,
but I think the floor is in for now.
I've been on this thing on the option side today.
No one's been looking at the options.
The 15 calls were $0.16 this morning.
17s are still cheap.
20s are still cheap.
I think the only way to really play this name is probably on the option side.
But there's no premium there.
And all you need is a little bit of news to get this thing basically doubling or going up 50%.
So I think it's definitely worth watching on the option side in the short term.
I don't really see much premium there yet.
But you see a lot of buying and volume on the stock today where it's been pretty much straight buying off the low.
So it's obviously accumulating a position.
So whenever I see something like that,
I think it's a green flag.
Last but not least, guys,
I think it's worth screening and scanning
on the small cap side,
but for high short interest.
And then look for anything
that's kind of catalyst-based
in this type of market,
which we know the sectors that are being hot.
And you can kind of go around
and you can find these speculative names off the lows.
And a lot of them are getting some nice traction.
Of course, you've got a lot of stuff reporting earnings this week, next week, going forward.
So just take that into account.
But yeah, that's some of the stuff I'm looking at.
Appreciate that rundown, Spartan.
Glad you could make it to the show today.
I always love hearing your inputs.
Dougie Fresh, right here at the top of the hour. Didn't know if there's any things on your watch list, things that you're looking at, trading, and all of the above.
I'll run through it real quick. So, open door. A lot of people are talking about this now, like they want to jump into it.
And obviously, we were as early as you could possibly be on this show so uh be careful
because it looks like it's pulling back will it set back up probably when it hits the uh macd line
but i do see a lot of chatter of people looking at it wanting to get into it and it already had
a big run so just hold off just wanted to give a heads up on that that dnn we talked about that
that's run up immensely it's just having a little bit of pullback. It was in the top.
You're probably going to see it run back up.
That's that Uranium one in Canada.
They were two big ones.
They were beauties.
And UPXI, I mentioned that last week as I'm watching this get set up.
And Spartan, you might like this guy right here.
It's starting to hit that 20-day as it's rolling up.
It'll probably roll off the MACD, get rolling.
I think they have like a bunch of solana yeah they have like eight 83 000 solana or something crazy like that and then
i mentioned tillray last week and that jumped up and you just have a little bit of pullback their
earnings i believe are today yeah today is tillray's earnings and honestly i had mentioned
before how trump has his rolodex in his pocket to make the
market pop and what i said about the eu to china they're the two big ones i i'm surprised the eu
didn't make the market go nuts today to be honest with you but also i had mentioned uh if he does
something cannabis federally so with the banking or even federally legalizes it tries to do something
along them lines you're going to see the market pop some more. And I would imagine that's going to come a little
bit down the road towards the midterms, because that's a good one to get people on board to vote
for you. So I could see that one happening. But the cannabis sector has been looking good. I know
Ben's been watching that MSOS as well. And so, yeah, there you go. And I'll say X4 is looking really good right there, Spartan.
And if you did say that SRPT, I think that's what you mentioned second.
And that one has been beaten down. I've been watching this thing.
And yeah, it's actually curling up today, if that's the one you were talking about.
And actually looks really good there.
And Ben, you had mentioned WGS or something, and actually looks really good there and ben you had mentioned wgs or something
and that looks really good that wgs that thing looks pretty good what the heck was the name of
it gene dx they report tomorrow morning yeah that's looking pretty decent right there yeah i
actually had pens of paper right now i was trying to do figure out what percent allocation would be
comfortable holding into the earnings report tomorrow yes more morning yeah no it's curling up pretty nice and i
think i wanted to ask ariel but i don't think he's on uh but i think he said nathan's earlier when he
mentioned that he likes uh nathan i'm pretty sure he's like nathan's is setting up beautifully so
i was watching it was actually curled up as we were talking earlier and all of a sudden it just
pulled back a little bit so that's how fast they moved because that It was actually curled up as we were talking earlier. And all of a sudden it just pulled back a little bit.
So that's how fast they moved because that thing was literally curled up looking like it was riding a cruise.
And now it pulled back, but it is getting set up. It has a couple of days.
So I'll be watching Nathan's NATH as well. I don't even know. What is that market cap?
390, 390 million. So, yeah, that's a pretty small cap and it is getting set up and it's down here so
that one is a good one and i'm pretty sure that's what ariel was talking about and that's what i
have for you guys so beware to spy in them guys but again you just might see a little healthy
pullback and this market's going to get nutty and mark thanks for uh a heads up on the usd i'll be
keeping an eye on that and i'll be updating it in the night note and on my show because I'll be keeping a close eye on that because you can just see that completely is going to change things.
So thank you, everybody, and have a great day.
Beautiful.
Appreciate that, Dougie Fresh.
Any final comments from the panel up here before we wrap up today?
I don't know if Ariel wanted to talk about any.
Is he back?
I don't know if you want to talk about any specific stuff.
I know you had to step away for a second.
Yeah, and I don't think he usually does endorse any specific stuff.
This is there for the macro, if I'm not mistaken.
But do I have any comments?
No, we're good.
I mean, we covered a lot on this show.
This is a beautiful show.
Probably worth repeating it later, listening to the recording. Good stuff. comments uh no we're good i mean covered a lot on this show this is a beautiful show probably worth
uh repeating it later listen to the recording good stuff yeah big shout out to the small cap
crew make sure you're following all these great speakers up here on the stage that do this show
with us every monday some absolute amazing general market thoughts and then the amount of excuse me
the amount of time
research they put in, you heard what Money Mark even mentioned there, but each of them in their
different ways, the way they research and create these ideas for everyone. It's fantastic. I'll
definitely say that there's an amazing discord over there with those guys. If you want to dive
in just a little bit deeper, definitely check out that and all the services they do on and off of
this platform. And we appreciate everyone for tuning in. As Ben just mentioned, this space
is recorded. So if you missed any of it, you can listen back to it at any time as soon as I close
it out. And I'm going to jump back over to the live trading for about an hour. Then we'll have
our Stocks on Spaces show at Power Hour today. And then this evening, 5 p.m. right here on
Wolf Financial, stock picks for the week. You'll get to see Ben again, myself, and a whole crew
of stock pickers. And we'll see who's going to take the cake this week. But either way,
I'm going to close this out now. We'll see you guys on the next space. Thanks, everyone,
for tuning in. And of course, as always, this small cap show each and every Monday,
1 p.m. Eastern. Thanks for tuning in. Thank you.
