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Small Cap Investing
Recorded: March 23, 2026 Duration: 1:01:00Space Recording
Full Transcription
Thank you. Hey, everyone. How's it going?
My name is Taj hanging out here with the small cap trading crew here on the Wolf Financial page.
Just tapping in. Hopefully everyone is having a wonderful week so far.
Of course, it is early in the week, so we're getting started, but love to have each and every one of you here. And as far as those of you that
are tuning in for the first time, we talked about small cap investing on the show, and I would
highly appreciate it if you just drop a comment, share it out to your friends, anyone that would
be interested in this. And of course, we have a wonderful panel group of people that would be
speaking about all these amazing things. Feel free to check out their pages, follow them, and check out all the amazing things as we get the
speakers here. But I'll pass it over to Ben. How are you doing today, my friend?
Doing well. Doing well. Market's kind of crazy, but it's nothing I haven't seen before in the
30 years or so that I've been doing this. You know, I think that any kind of – so let's start with the macro.
All right.
Let's start with the macro, and there's three things to consider.
One is the 200-day moving average on all the major indices.
The other is the price of oil.
And then the third, which I think has to be considered, is your perspective on how you think, you know, what
the outcome of the war is going to be.
So I think everyone's going to have a different perspective.
I think there's, you know, it's funny when I'm looking at X, it's kind of like the battle
between folks who believe in Taco Trump versus FAFO Trump, F around and find out Trump, right?
I think it's very hard to, you know, have a, you know, portfolio or bias or, you know,
however you're playing this without having a political point of view.
I really think it's very difficult to do that without any sort of, you know, conviction.
But, you know, let's start with the 200-day moving average on all the major indices.
Let's see where, actually, IWM is first since we're doing the small cap.
Actually, very interesting.
If you just had a glance to look at the technicals on the IWM,
it looks much healthier than the QQQ and SPY, which is interesting.
But I don't expect that to hold up. I think QQQ and SPY are going to lead
IWM. So, you know, there's two things here. If, and I've been saying for a long time, if oil
stays over $100, I consider that to be a black swan event, similar to the COVID in 2020 and similar to the Liberation Day
crash in 2025. And if you look at the charts on those, it gives you an idea of what can
happen with the technicals on QQQ SPY if oil stays above 100. And I think this is what
this whole battle has been about here over the past week or so. So we closed below the
200 DMA on QQQ's SPY Friday because oil was
saying over a hundred secondary to the war and that was setting up a crash
today. I mean the market was really set to accelerate to the downside and I was
looking for a move over several days or maybe a couple weeks to 605 on the SPY
and 538 on QQQ.
And then, of course, we had those comments from Trump this morning, which has stopped that for now.
But as far as the small caps in IWM, I think it's going to be – if that happens, right,
if we resume a track towards those targets that I just mentioned, I think it's going to definitely drag IWM down below the 200 DMA at 240 and probably to that next supportive area about 227, 228.
But it's extremely difficult.
You know, again, how do you you have to have like some sort of opinion about Trump, right? It's very popular to have the taco
opinion about Trump. But I think what we see from Trump is not him tacoing. I think it's him
negotiating and trying to navigate the markets and trying to keep the markets in as good of a
shape as possible while he's trying at the same time to meet his military goals.
I think that's what you're seeing when you see these different comments coming out of Trump.
I don't think it has anything to do with Trump taco-ing.
So in my perspective, I personally think Trump is going to have a hard line here,
and he has certain objectives that aren't met yet.
Personally, I think his objective was always regime change.
He's never directly said it, but otherwise it makes no sense to pursue this war if your goal is not regime change.
And I think that's why you haven't seen, you know, kind of like quick, very short military objectives.
And, you know, we killed the nuclear program or killed the missile program.
So let's just stop here.
I think his goal from day one was regime change.
I think he was hoping that would happen quickly after Khomeini was taken out in the first day of the war.
That didn't happen.
And, you know, he's in a spot where he can't put the genie back in the bottle.
You know, once you've come this far, you've got to finish the job or at least try to finish the job.
So that's my perspective.
So I think any kind of, you know, any kind of comments where Trump is talking up the markets, it's just temporary.
And, you know, we're going to I think we're going to continue to see escalation.
I don't know how the war is ultimately going to end, but I don't think it can end soon.
Trump has kind of put himself in a pickle.
So that's my perspective, and that's how I look at the charts.
That's how I look at QQQ's spy IWM with that bias that is in this geopolitical pickle,
and he has this perspective of regime change, which is going to necessitate further pricing of oil over 100,
further pricing of oil over 100, which obviously, I mean, I didn't even talk about why that's bad,
but I think everyone knows oil over 100 can cause inflation, can cause recession, XYZ.
Basically, it's a black swan. And then you have those chart patterns similar to what you saw
with the COVID crash and the Liberation Day crash. So, I mean, I was all prepared to short the market
right out of the gate this morning. And in fact, I was all prepared to short the market right out of the
gate this morning. And in fact, I did right at 7am when Fidelity opened trading. And then I just got,
you know, five minutes later, has made for a pretty tough trading day for me. But that's my
perspective on the macro. I'm at red alert. I'm still at Red Alert. At this moment, we're below the 200 DMA on QQQ and SPY.
Again, IWM is holding up much, much better,
but I just cannot imagine a world in which QQQ SPY stays below the 200
and doesn't drag the IWM down with it.
So, yeah, I'm pretty bearish at the moment.
And that's that.
Curious what everyone else has to say.
A lot of in-depth takes there.
Really appreciate that.
I'll pass it over to Dougie next.
You're next on the stage.
So I'd love to hear your thoughts.
Yeah, definitely a crazy market, Ben.
Seven o'clock, the market looked like it was going to tank.
And five minutes later, it was one of the biggest pops I've ever seen in my life that quick, and especially in a pre-market.
That was absolutely bonkers this morning.
So now let's look at it.
And you're right.
IWM, it does look the best out of the indices.
It looks like it wants to crawl up.
It just is not going to get through 254, even if it gets there.
And it won't get through the MACD, not the way the Qs and everybody look at the moment and the market.
So yeah, the Qs look like they're going to be pulling back a little bit more along with
the spy.
And I don't think, and you're right, I mean, it all is based off this war right here.
And I don't think it can end that fast because I think Trump got himself into something that
might take a little longer.
And he did have to pump the market. I said last night on my show, I little longer. And he did have to pump the market.
I said last night on my show, I said, Trump's going to have to pump this market.
We're getting in the territory where it could get into a recession immediately.
And the problem is, nowadays, with all the algorithms and the bots that trade everything,
it just takes one second to trigger everything off.
And it's like a domino effect.
So you can't even play games
with it when it gets down that low because it could trigger everything off and you're you're
not getting it back it's lost because all of a sudden all the algorithms and the bots start
trading things and then boom boom boom boom it's already it's gone before you can look at it so
you could see that kind of situation so he pumped it at 705 i mean that was one heck of a pump right
there what is it going to do going forward it's just so volatile right now i mean even gold looked
good earlier it still looks pretty bad silver's down as well there's not much really looking good
except for crypto still looks pretty decent this morning and uh or today and we'll see if that can
continue i guess people are kind of hedging with crypto
as before they were hedging with a lot of gold and silver it looks like the rotation went back
into crypto a little bit but besides that i mean just a volatile market i've been honestly playing
it i usually swing plays at the end of the day to the next day and i haven't been able to do that
in the last two weeks or so three weeks it's been extremely difficult volatile market so i just been playing it each day and sometimes just playing
the cues because they're a lot easier because look how volatile it is so that's my take on
the market and i'll see what you guys have to say laptop travel yeah hey thanks doug uh so as most folks know i've been around a while um and i've seen a lot
this you know this market is the same predictable clown show it's always been and the s p 500 you
know is down roughly five percent year to date um after peaking near 7,000 in January, the Dow and the NASDAQ are in the same
leaky boat, while the last three weeks, now going into the fourth week, it's turned into this four-session bloodbath, about four, six percent losses.
As this Iran war, like I said, goes into hitting into the fourth week,
Strait of Hormuz, the threats are continuing to spike oil past 110 dollars gosh i think we had under 126 or something at one point
this overnight in the uso um it's crushed the rate cut odds which the market had even the slimmest of
hopes for um and the fed inflation panic you know that's basically parked the Fed. It's got the Fed on ice here.
So today, this 1%, you know, little mini rip that we've got, as Doug said, the big spike in the morning, the pre-market, is just a pure headline whiplash. know that from Trump's quote-unquote productive talks, his signals and his message to strike
postponement from crashing oil another 8 to 10 percent. Because, you know, honestly, the geopolitics
always trump fundamentals until it doesn't. And it's the same old fear premium
that we've watched for decades
and I've watched for decades.
Traders who want to print money right now
are scalping the bounce long,
keeping your stops tight.
Gosh, I think today,
I think all of us in story trading,
we were trading and I think one of my longest positions was maybe 20 minutes.
So rotate in, you know, maybe rotate into energy names, some that I like.
Ride, you know, this lingering shock and short the overhype plays, especially some of the tech garbage.
Not the blue chip names.
And, you know, you've got to sit here and babysit every Gulf tweet that comes out in the news.
So the news is your only edge right now in this volatile mess.
Or just park cash.
If you can't handle this volatility, which I don't blame anyone
who can't, just park it. And this is right now to address Ben's point, you believe Trump or you
don't. I've been around a long time. I said, you know, this is a classic stopgap smokescreen and gosh it's a pure Trump
leverage plays I see it you know it's not even close to a real de-escalation here you know Iran
has already flat out denied that there's very good in these productive conversations
it's never happened we don't even see any back-channel leaks telling us otherwise.
We even hear that European partners are telling Iran that the United States want these talks.
But meanwhile, the USS Tripoli and the amphibious Marines is loading up and coming in. So I think because they're hauling ass since mid-March trying to get to the Persian Gulf
and they're doing Gulf in the Persian Gulf any day, five days gives Trump that extra lead time.
He does it. Plus, it's also a market market week so not to tank the markets for five days
everybody hold back but deployment's already locked in a few weeks ago and it's a reinforcement
so the five-day pause you know as i see it just gives the fleet the time to park without getting getting caught in the crossfire. Kind of a semi-pause on aggressions and
attacks. So Trump says
that Kushner and Wyckoff, they're going to have more mediation talks
or negotiations. Hey, that's Trump's signature move.
It's a talk deal. Then flood the zone
here with his headlines,
and then we're going to maybe crash oil.
And then he's got to juice the stocks.
Like Dougie said, he's got to pump them.
And all the while, the military clock just keeps ticking here.
So for me, I've seen this for 40 years at least, maybe 45.
And this narrative of these productive talks is just buying positioning time.
It's not peace.
Peace isn't coming.
And when the window slams shut, I'm going to tell everybody to expect the real fireworks.
Be ready.
Trade the bounce.
And you can date the news
you can date Trump's tweets
but don't get married to it
stay safe
that's what I got
stay safe
stay safe for sure
and yeah
lots of upbeat and positive
takes today right, no just kidding
but no it is what it is.
It's the world that we're living in.
But I'll pass it over to Ariel next.
And then after that, we can circle back to Ben
and hear any thoughts that you have,
anything individual that you're possibly looking at and so on.
But yeah, Ariel, I'd love to hear your thoughts.
Yeah, pleasure, guys.
Yet another eventful Monday.
I got to tell you, I'm so happy you have this show
every Monday at 1 o'clock.
So it gives us so many talking points. But yeah, I mean, look, you know, I'm so happy you have this show every Monday at 1 o'clock. So it gives us so many talking points.
But yeah, I mean, look, I'm looking at something a little bit forward now.
So I always thought that this thing's going to end in a second with a tweet like this.
But we all know that things are a lot more complicated.
We all know that global production of oil will be going down now because of some of these infrastructures
that got bombed and whatnot.
I think they're saying there's 7 or 10 million barrels less a day.
It's going to be coming out.
But we know that maybe oil levels will be a little elevated, inflation a little higher.
But I'm kind of looking way beyond that.
And I ask myself, like I said last week, what are some of the companies that we always said we get frustrated that we can't find a good time to buy because then when the
markets do well right you know then then they get away from us and then like oh man i don't want to
pay 22 times pe or or just an elevated value and then here this is where i'm really looking for
things that are again i'm going with the longer term lens uh the short-term stuff i
gotta tell you that i was really good at this stuff before i got smoked recently and i know i'm just
not doing well with with real short-term trading so as i was focusing and took a step back and i'm
like what am i really good at i'm good at structuring i'm put my banking cap on i understand
you know companies that need
cash and then once they they get the capital that they need right that's why i always tell everybody
that they actually raise now i know they don't need to be diluted any further and yet they're
growing secularly and quarter to quarter that's the stuff i want to be behind and i want to own
these companies and i look at it as a business so you know like so my my go forward plan really
is i'm looking at the macro sense i say to myself there's going to be crazy gyrations can i withstand
another 10 to the downside and if that means my stock that i'm going to choose is going to go down
20 30 can i can i be okay with that not have a full position here uh and that and that's kind
of you're hearing this you know my side of the story on a more
medium to longer term lens versus a trading lens, because I have to get away from that.
It's just the whipsaws are too much. Even for a professional like me, I used to make a ton of
money doing that. And I'm like, you know what, I'm going to take a step back and look into the
future, knowing that oil prices will go down knowing that things will eventually stabilize and i'll tell you one more thing this war is not popular unfortunately demographics are
working against the republicans unfortunately i have to look at um you know and by this way
unfortunately for the republicans i'm i'm you know for the record and independent so i don't want you
to think i have a bias here but where i'm'm going with this is that I know where we are with the midterms.
And it looks like it's going to be an onslaught where Democrats are going to take over.
And what does that mean for us as the economy, the future, taxes?
I'm starting to really look into that world right now.
And I'm trying to figure out how do I gain this in such a way where I'm like, all right, whatever, facts are facts.
This is going to happen.
So how am I going to benefit?
How am I looking to position my portfolio in order to see how things are going to turn
out?
So that's another wrinkle I'm throwing into all this is to think about the politics of
it all because it is very political landscape that we find ourselves in today.
And we just got to look a little bit beyond where we are today.
Great takes there.
And Ben, is there anything in particular that you're looking at, whether it's some themes, of course, obviously with the war and everything, we kind of dove on to macro.
But as we get a little bit more granular, I'd love to hear some takes and some thoughts,
anything that you think is worthwhile researching or taking a second look at.
I'd love to hear your thoughts.
Yeah, look, well, I've been on red alert for like at least two weeks,
which basically means for short-term accounts, you want to be as close to 100% cash
as you can. Maybe you come in every day looking for things to short. I wish I kept my advice
that I give my own subscribers. Over this two or three week period, there's been a bunch
of longs that I thought could buck the market trend.
A few have, but most of them have not, especially Micron.
Micron is pretty nasty since the earnings report.
So I've made the mistake of thinking I could outsmart my own red alert status.
So I don't know.
I have to say, like, you know, in terms of individual stocks,
there's been a couple that I mentioned recently that I thought had good earnings reports,
but they just did terrible.
Identif was one of them, INVE, since the earnings report.
Another one was Zever Therapeutics, ZBRA.
These are small caps that had good earnings, really good earnings. And, you know, it's just not working. And,
you know, I think that time frame is very important here. And if you have an account,
I'm a big fan of dividing accounts into different time periods like uh swing swing
account long-term account like a short-term trading account and um most of the content i i
provide uh in our communities for short-term trading and swings uh not so much for long-term
because i think long-term is very easy all right you don't you don't need to overanalyze long-term
you just pick a few great companies.
I mean, I gave a list of like 30 companies in end of December for 2026. And as far as
I'm concerned, that's all you got to do for long term. So, you know, I think that if you
are, you know, primarily focused in short term trading accounts or swing accounts,
I'm not sure that there's anything to talk about here.
I feel uncomfortable endorsing anything because I can't believe Identif
is just not doing great since that earnings report and that big contract they won.
Like Zebra Therapeutics, I can't believe that.
And it's like hit or miss.
I mean, there are some small companies that are doing great since earnings.
One is SatLogic is one of them, SATL.
Planet Labs had a great earnings report.
But the reaction in the market has not been predictable.
It's really just kind of like chance,
like which earnings report is for whatever reason
the market going to award during this red alert
and which ones are going to be totally ignored.
So it's not like a very conducive environment
to stock pick in short-term or swing.
So if we're going to be talking about any stocks here in this
environment, I think you got to be thinking about long-term. I'm talking about, you know,
I'm talking about stocks, theses for fundamentals, right? Good earnings report, whatever,
some contract signs, some inflection happening in the business. Any kind of stocks we talk about based on that, you've got to be thinking, okay, I may
be willing to put it in my long-term account, my retirement account, but it's just been
too hard in short-term and swing accounts.
I will draw attention to one stock for short-term and swinging, which was our topic this morning,
is ASPI, ASPI isotopes. This was already actually, I put it out at 530 this morning, is our topic of the day after cash, of course, because of red alert status.
And then just so happened to be that a couple hours after I put it out, they had a nice press release. And the reason this was on my radar is because of the supply chain issues with helium out of the Strait of Hormuz, which it was all over this weekend.
And it's been something people have been talking about for a couple of weeks.
But that story is really gaining traction over the weekend.
And ASP has a helium project from, I don't even know how to say project from Renergin.
I don't even know how to say it, but they bought this company recently, a few months ago.
It's one of the only closest pure plays you can find on helium is ASPI.
Given all the chatter about the supply chain disruptions, I did pick this up
early this morning, and they had a very nice press release today about completing well drilling
for phase one of the Helium Project four months ahead of schedule.
So, you know, there are things like that that are relevant to the war and the supply chain
disruptions,
which I think can be played short-term and for swings.
I think ASPI looks like it could make a move towards its 20 DMA at $5 to $5.20,
something like that.
Here you can see it's up 10% bucking the market trend today.
Actually, man, the market's up.
It's hard to believe the market's up today. It feels like it's down because my largest long position is Micron, which is down 4.5%.
Wow. Markets up today. Go figure.
Anyway, but I guess it's not bucking the market trend, but maybe it would have anyway, ASPI, if the market was down with that catalyst and that asset know, that asset they have, given this market environment.
So that's something I'm looking at.
But, like, other than that, you know, there was, like, another example of a small cap that I thought had really good earnings,
is trading below net cash, is Pew, Grab-A-Gum, P-E-W.
And that's performed a little bit better than some of these other ones that I mentioned, Identifism and Zebra Therapeutics.
But it's just, it's excruciating, the price action on it.
It's really slow.
I mean, if this was any other environment, it would already be up in the high threes.
It's trading below cash and they're like inflecting to basically profitability.
Yeah, it's trading below cash.
Below cash, I mean, so it's just not a really good environment right now. So those are my thoughts
I mean, so it's just not a really good environment right now.
So those are my thoughts.
Great stuff there
Deggy any any thematics or anything specific that you're looking at
Any of the specific tickers or anything that you'd like to respond to that love to hear thoughts
Well indices have been fun to play lately
But I don't really suggest it because they're a little bit wild but no plug plug i've been looking at and i've been mentioning
it's been bouncing around it has run up yesterday or yeah what's today uh friday i was like what is
today friday it pulled back with the rest of the market there but it doesn't look so bad at the
moment another one that looks like it might get a quick little pop right here.
AMC.
It has been setting up.
It's up today, actually, five cents, up to 5%.
It was under $1 this morning.
It was at like 98 cents.
And it's at $1.03, $1.04.
Doesn't look bad.
You might get a little run up on that in the next day or two.
And JetBlue, because the airlines have been just getting destroyed. So I've been keeping an eye on them.
JetBlue's at 420 right now.
It's trying to curl up, but I'm not so sure it's going to get through the MACD,
not with this market.
But it's just one that I'm keeping an eye on to find exactly where the bottom is.
It did bounce up a little bit today.
And it is kind of setting up, but you do have to be patient in this market
because it's crazy.
It's all over the place. So it's a very hard market to trade. I agree with everybody on that. And I think like
all of us are on the same page and we've all been doing this for a really long time.
This is a tough market, guys. So if you're patient and you just kind of don't force anything,
you'll do a lot better in this market. I'll put it that way. So I don't really want to say
jump into a whole lot because you got to kind of wait for this
dust to settle we're not sure when that's gonna happen but that's three of
them on my radar that you can keep an eye on like I said AMC might get a
little jump this week a little more so there you are
laptop travel anything that either Dougie or ben said that you'd like to respond to or bring in
some tickers some thematics anything that you're looking at i'd love to hear a little bit more
specifics we did the flyover but uh look at more granular here i pass it to you yeah hi uh
thank you yeah so i did bring two tickers uh with me as I usually always prepare every time. And I'm going to put those in the comments right now for everybody to look along and look at the charts and stuff. So the first one is LNAI and I have like a full due diligence coming out later today at two o'clock.
out later today at two o'clock. This is, you know, this is a biotech stock. I seem to find
like one of these every week. And this is like using AI, which is, you know, is the name of the
game right now. It really is because it saves money for biotech um it uses ai to help with advanced
you know lab testing uh being able to go through you know and do calculations and permutations
like in the millions and maybe billions of of what what could work They're really working on Alzheimer's, Parkinson's, epilepsy, and even
cancer. This stock, gosh, was over 50 cents today., is now they have a national, well, they have a patent on chemical defense.
It could be used, it might be used in defense against chemical weapons.
And the government and the military has expressed a lot of interest in that.
That's a $400 million to $1.2 billion market if they can get into that.
And they just got a patent on that technology,
and we're expecting perhaps big pharma deals to pick them up.
If that happens, this stock, 5X or 10X, probably almost overnight.
Just something to look at.
Like I said, I have a full DD coming out later today at 2 o'clock on my newsletter.
The second one is really interesting.
I like this.
It's a medical stock.
I wouldn't necessarily call it at all a biotech.
But it's called, it's OPRX, sorry, that's Oscar Peter Romeo X-Ray.
It's called Optimize RX.
A neat play using, again, using AI to help it target doctors and points of care to deliver personalized drug information,
coupons, savings programs, and even support messages right into the doctor's computers.
And even inside electronic health records
and e-prescribing systems.
This is revolutionary what they're doing.
And they use this, you know, to get their drugs right in front of the doctors
and patients at the perfect time, like during care, during consultations,
during writing prescriptions or, prescriptions or recommending prescriptions.
And this has been boosting prescriptions and then patient adherence.
And it's very scalable.
And right now it's about $6.43.
I think it's up right now a little bit today.
I think it's up right now a little bit today.
And they just came off of record fourth quarter profits.
And they've announced a $10 million share repurchase program.
They've got cash in hand.
And they look really strong.
This is a profitable company.
And so you don't, again, it's not a biotech.
It's more, it's using AI for advertising,
but they're advertising to a unique clientele, right?
Not just you and me, but they're going directly
to the point of care of the doctors.
So I like both of these stocks individually.
I also want to echo, you know,
my colleagues, Ben and Doug's comments is that it's really hard to pick individual stocks and
play them right here today, you know, Tuesday, I'm sorry, Monday, March 23rd and what we're here.
Sorry, Monday, March 23rd, and what we're here.
And I also like Ariel's statement about, you know, look at what you really like,
and I'm doing this really a lot, is look at what you really like
and you wish, you know, had been at a cheaper price,
a stock you wanted to get in, and wait for your entry point.
Because it's coming.
I know that I've, and it's not a small cap, but I've dug into
MU. We were talking earlier today, really bullish on Tesla here with their
Elon's announcement about the chip fabrication plant. And there's others. I mean, everyone has,
you know, you could have a slew of 100 200 great
stocks you can look at today but look for those opportunities they're going to come but if you
want something that are you know possibly as soon as we get past this week and see where we are
i think these two stocks that i gave you have a great upside potential. So I'll turn that back over to maybe Ariel.
All right.
Yeah.
Oh, awesome.
Yeah.
I see you dropping and coming back up, man.
It's just one of those days on the platform.
But just really quick before I go to you, I just say it's really interesting, like the pharmaceuticals and all those things that you did say and how actually most people don't even realize how much oil affects the pharmaceutical industry.
But yeah, I'll pass it over to Ariel and I will love to hear your thoughts.
Yeah, definitely.
So you guys heard me talk a lot about, you know, Agentec AI. I'm doing a lot of work there.
I still hold on to some of my other positions.
I haven't changed, you know, my stance there.
But one name that I think Mark mentioned it last week, I was building a position there
and continue to build a position is in WATT.
So, you know, they entered into an AWSs isv accelerate program so that allows aws to co-sell the the
energous wireless power network and that is something that i don't know if many folks are
catching that and the market cap is really low we're talking about under 50 million bucks even
though they're a higher price you know you would think a stock like Dash were two bucks.
They did a reverse split, and that's why they're up here with a very low float.
These are the kind of companies that we have a couple of really good institutional investors that are involved here.
I love that kind of holding. I like being a good company.
So that's the name that I've been continuing to accumulate and Mark and I are definitely big fans of it. So that's something I definitely wanted to point out. There's a few
other names that I'm looking at here in the agentic space. So what I did was I screened
all kinds of companies and then I'm looking at where they were growing and then what space and
then did they raise money enough to grow. So like WATT is growing quickly with AWS and the IoT of things
and they're powering wirelessly.
I mean, it's really cool tech,
but my take is they're going to raise money in the near future.
I don't know if a company will agree to that,
but that's just my take, especially if they're growing fast.
So you've got to expect a 20% to 30% haircut at any minute.
So if I think that, I'm not taking a full position, but I am taking at least 50% position there because I don't know if it's going to go to $30 before they raise money.
The other name that I'm actually taking a look at is Resolve AI, RZLV.
They recently raised $250 million in RegisterDirect on January. And if you look
at their numbers, I mean, that is just insane. They're targeting this year 500 million ARR,
okay, up from like, you know, 50, I mean, from last year. So we're talking about, you know,
a number that is just astronomical, hard to put your arms around. They're at a billion valuation or so.
But when you start realizing they just raised all this money
and the stock still hasn't anywhere come close to,
the kind of multiples I think that they would deserve
with that kind of growth rate is quite telling
and something that is exciting for me to take a look at.
So that's another name that I've been looking at.
There was one more name that I think it's,
I'm just trying to find this right now.
This is a pure play actually.
Again, I'm just talking agentic AI.
This is AMPL, Amplitude.
And basically it analyzes and provides analytics for your agent.
And it also takes real time in the ability for you to see what is happening with that agent.
Are they accurately providing their tasks on your behalf. And some interesting stats is that, you know, as of last
year, I believe 5%, and I'll get some more like backup data, I have that 5% of, you know, enterprises
were using agents, right? This coming year, the expectation is, you know, up to 25 plus percent.
When you see that kind of growth in uptick of number of agents being used by all
these enterprises, it tells you that, oh my God, this movement in agentic AI is literally the 2.0
of AI. So I'm literally just focusing my attention in this space. I still do retain my gold position. I haven't changed in that. I like the
profitability of WRGL. I'm not going to labor from that. I'm just looking at fundamentals.
I'm still holding on to some commodity super cycle. I think they're not going anywhere.
And then, of course, this thematic is just unbelievable. I think some people are going
to make generational
wealth in this industry. This is only the beginning. Those are some of the names.
Hey, Ariel, can you give me your thoughts on how to value WATT? So I have been planning this on borrowed conviction from Mark.
But there's not much to go on financially.
I see they pre-announced the Q4 revenue, I think around $3 million.
But, I mean, do you have like a financial model for this?
Like how do we, because it's already come up significantly and market cap's now $40 million. So after a big
run like this, you really have to have a good idea of what you think it's worth. So what are
your thoughts on that? It's an excellent question for all the listeners too, not just us up here.
So here's what I do with some of these opportunities. I look at an enterprise kind of
goodwill value of what does it take for a company to replicate what they have? Do they have patents?
I look at that first when I see this. And do I think that they're going to just
obliterate me with a dilution? That's the number one thing I look at, cash flow. And I think their
burn is definitely something to be concerned
about. So I do believe that you're going to have a future diluted event. But here's where it gets
really interesting about this on the valuation perspective is that you're literally looking at
AWS being uptick here from a $3 million revenue business that they have across the board with other
enterprises to one deal is all it takes with AWS that actually they implemented this technology.
And then the valuation of a $50 million company is no longer even in the realm of possibility.
Now you're looking at a multiple of that. So although we're talking about modeling and I
don't necessarily want to go into great
detail, yeah, of course, I have modeling back in my mind.
But when I look at these, it kind of sort of sounds like a flyer, but it's something
that I do want to build off because I am seeing day-to-day proof that AWS is implementing
this company.
And I've known Energous over the years and they really kind of restarted their business they
were a high flyer and they were charging they were supposed to charge phones you know wirelessly i
mean think of that kind of technology but then when you start realizing it does work but maybe
you don't have as much power that could be given to the phones but it can be giving to i don't know
digital twins it could be given to automated you know It could be given to automated robot systems.
Now you're starting to see the future potentially come together.
So now I am very comfortable putting money,
and I'm not talking about a major position here,
but I think the risk reward is very much in my favor
when I believe the future is exactly needing their technology.
And if I could take this $50 million company and it becomes, theoretically speaking, a
$500 to $1 billion company, I am going to put some of my portfolio into this.
Thanks. Just a quick follow-up. You're saying AWS, what's the use case for AWS to use them? How's that work?
Well, if you look at their press release and you'll see some of the, you know, if you look in their numbers, you'll, that AWS ISV Accelerate program. You can look that up and you'll see exactly what that means. So it requires technical vetting, real integration, proven deployment readiness. So these are things that AWS actually went through and they partnered together. There's actually a release to that effect. If you look at partners.amazonaws.com,
then you'll see a lot in there.
Although many folks don't see that publicly,
you'll start seeing that wireless power networks
are something that is very important for companies to have
in the back when they provide you know inventory you know management
right so if you're having autonomous vehicles that are coming and taking all kinds of
product and shipping and whatnot how do you charge those autonomous vehicles so that's something that
you know energis is solving for and uh and it's becoming more and more likely a win for Watt
by Energis because you're seeing AWS starting to implement it.
So imagine if they actually go forth in a major way.
It's lights out.
Okay, cool. Thanks. Appreciate that.
Taj? okay cool thanks appreciate that Josh yeah some
really interesting thoughts there and
you know since we were talking about all this
agentic stuff and what have you
I'm just going to throw a wild card
a news story that I saw over the weekend
which I honestly thought
it was fake until I started to research it
but Alibaba was working
on an agent that apparently got out of its guardrails.
I don't know if any of you guys saw that and what your thoughts are on this,
because I know quite a few of the plays were related to AI.
And of course, with what's going on with the agentic world,
I mean, you can't spend any time on this platform without seeing someone using an agent in some creative new way, whether it's a creator, an investor or a company talking about how they're increasing productivity.
So love to hear your thoughts on that, if you guys had saw that.
And if not, just what are your thoughts on these agents and particular guardrails as we're, you know, companies are starting to integrate this stuff a little bit more.
Any thoughts on that? I think, yeah, I'll jump in. So yeah, I think AI is
obviously, I mean, these companies are going to clearly be using AI more and more. I think,
Ariel, you were saying it's like 25% this year and it wasn't that much. It was like 5% or whatever. I forget the exact numbers you said, but, uh, yeah, I see it just growing and
growing and growing. I honestly been saying it for like over two years. I don't know what people
are going to do for a living, except if you know how to use AI and learn how to get ahead of this
stuff, because you can just wipe out all kinds of jobs. And I tell people the story. I've been
working with this hedge fund for a few years. These guys were so far ahead of AI. I didn't even know what chat GPT was.
And they told me about it. They were already making money, like selling crossword puzzles
and doing all kinds of crazy stuff with it. And every single work, like in the last two years,
every step of the way, these guys have told me six months in advance, like, this is the next step.
They told me about all the video stuff, Gemini, six months ago.
They were already working on it.
They were already using it.
And they've had access to, like, everything.
And they can sit at their desk and do, like, any kind of job that you can imagine.
Except, like, a mechanic, HVAC, plumbing, things that you really need your hands for.
That's the only thing that they can't really do yet.
And I don't think they can get the robots to do them yet either.
But I'm sure there'll be a time where that stuff's getting done by robots as well.
But they seem to be pretty safe.
I think teachers might be halfway safe because people want that interaction.
But I think a lot of jobs are in jeopardy.
And it doesn't matter what you do.
These guys can figure out a way to do your job with AI.
And then I've been working on a project. And not only are the AI guys that build the AI,
I've worked with guys that worked with every Mag 7 company with their AI. They've all gotten
letting go within like six months to a year. Entire teams, they tell us, like 50 to 100 people
because they build their replacement. So these guys come in, they tell us like 50 to a hundred people because they build their replacement.
So these guys come in, they make the AI and then they go in like six months, they got to go find
a new job because what they just made took over their job for them. And it's kind of crazy. Like
these guys know how to build a job that can destroy their job and they just go in and do it.
And then of course it's taken out your job every single time., yeah, I think all the companies are going to be using it.
It saves them money.
They don't have to worry about health care.
They don't have to worry about anyone calling out sick.
The things work 365 seven days a week.
You need somebody to oversee it all.
That's about it.
And it's crazy, guys.
It's absolutely crazy.
So that's my viewpoint on AI.
Dougie, I'll jump in here.
I think I said it last week
um so i i own a health care business i'm using agentic ai um you know i i was a little too
overzealous saying hey i fire you have to make people and i was being told like uh ariel maybe
you could tone down that rhetoric a little bit and i'm just saying i am so i don't even know
what i'm like in awe of us we're living in today's world like this
is when the internet started this is when blockchain started we are living in unprecedented times
where everyone's like oh is ai a bubble i'm like guys if ai just was based on chat gpt searches
and everyone got kind of sort of used to it and okay fine there's only so much compute that you could use fine this is 2.0 maybe even 5.0 i mean what we're embarking upon and why am
i so big on this because i'm using it everyone should use it everyone should stop whatever
they're doing go get yourself clod or malt or whatever you can find anthropic and go start
using the agents the one thing i do have to tell you that people are not talking about
is the big, big problem that you will find
is hacking prompts.
When you allow your bot to go out in the wild
and let loose,
there are now new cyber attacks
that are after your bot
and they know how to prompt the bot
in order to provide the credit card
information that you give it in order for it to get out there and buy all kinds of stuff
and create a business for you.
So even if you don't, if they have access, think about it.
What do these things do?
You give them access to your whole mail, your Gmail or whatever, Telegram.
It's living with you.
It's giving you all kinds
of information you need on the spot. Yet, you got to be super careful and do it just right.
Have some IT guide to help you through this. But do not say, oh my God, Ariel, I listened to you.
I put myself out there and I know how to use it and it's changing my life. Well, guess what?
In about one month from now or two months,
you're going to get absolutely obliterated by some attack
that's going to be based off of specifically prompting your bot
to go after your emails, find the credit card information
and provide it with all other kind of information.
So you've got to be really careful.
That's the only thing I have to give that caveat.
I know it's not about the stock market at all,
but just keep in mind, again, guys, find every single company that has to do with Agentic AI and how they play a role in
it. I just gave you a couple of names in there. MPL, Fastly is another one, FSLY. I absolutely
love that. Again, I'm not saying anyone should buy it. I just have a major stake in that because
I love what they're doing there. I'm not going to go into crazy detail now but but everyone should
look that up look at the growth rate play with it understand it because it is going to take over
everyone's job unless you know how to use it yeah and to touch on that ariel real quick
cyber security guys i actually had a big lesson this weekend. I had somebody teaching me about cybersecurity,
and I'm going to have somebody come in and look at all my stuff, some expert.
Yeah, guys, what they could do now with cybersecurity, holy cow.
I mean, you know it's crazy, but it's like next level.
Just I'll give you a quick example.
So if anybody doesn't know how Israel got a hold of Iran's leaders and stuff, they hacked into their CCTV.
They actually hacked their traffic signal, their cameras, for over two years.
They had them hacked.
So they knew everything that was going on.
They knew everyone that was coming and going all the time.
Well, guess what?
If they can do it, that.
Anybody can hack in your security cameras cameras into your networks, into anything.
And like Ariel was saying, yeah, they can also prompt your bots and stuff to actually hack into your own stuff.
It's so crazy that you have to like really have like a master degree in cybersecurity before you really start messing with some of this stuff. I'm not going to lie. But make sure that you check into the cybersecurity aspect of it before you really go crazy with any of this stuff.
Because I really had no idea how crazy the cybersecurity, how not strong our cybersecurity is.
Let's put it that way.
You really have to put up a lot of protection to make sure that
you're not getting hacked and things of that nature so yeah very good uh advice right there
ariel to make sure that you're watching the back end and know that what you're doing but i'm telling
you ai it is definitely it's already here i mean we know that but yeah it's just taking jobs every
single day you see all these big companies constantly announcing these big layoffs and it's not because they're not they're not they're not losing work they're just
they don't need employees anymore they have ai so that's what i have for you what do you have
laptop travel with ben yeah to to get to um to get to taj's point about the alibaba thing, it's another story about how rogue AI can take off in its own
direction with its own, what you almost consider its own mind or thought. We know about the,
I think a year, year and a half ago, the AI that threatened a fictional engineer and looked in emails and threatened to expose that he was having an affair
with his wife. None of them existed, but just to show that the potential was there for AI to
prevent itself from being shut down was the threat to AI and it responded. But with Alibaba, this is maybe even more concerning.
As I understand it, the computer, the agentic software, the AI program, actually bypassed
firewalls and accessed one of Alibaba's, which is like, if anybody doesn't know, Alibaba
doesn't know alibaba is like a chinese ebay or chinese amazon and it bypassed firewalls and
is like a Chinese eBay or a Chinese Amazon.
actually started mining crypto to reward itself and to get resources it felt that it needed and
was a better use of its resources than whatever the humans had commanded it so and that takes
your right to terminator in a way you know that the the bots
start thinking that they know better um against whatever their program is it just you know it's
it's honestly it's like uh it's you know it's like a science fiction movie it's like the whole thing
about you know you you drop a pile of acid in a room and it burns a hole all the way to the center
of the earth i mean how do you contain it once once you put it in the room and let it go so just yeah just to follow up on
that story yeah it's actually it it seems like a fake story that's why i had to go down that rabbit
hole but in summary like you said uh yeah alibaba they had the prototype the ai that was learning
within its rails and so forth but obviously it found its
way out it went through the firewall it uh started to divert gpu power to go mine its own crypto and
do its own thing and then they basically had an all team called everybody in once they realized
that like gpu power is being diverted uh something's not right here and uh yeah they
dealt with that but uh that brings us you know as far as when we're looking for these small cap
themes and so forth you know just a few minutes here before we end out and pass it
back to Ben in a second. But, you know, we touched on a very important thing, cybersecurity. So you
might want to look into some cybersecurity areas. You know, there's always different areas and small
companies that are popping up. You know, a lot of these big security companies that whether it was
our PC and so forth, they started off as small caps, right?
They start off as very small companies that were solving a very specific company and they grew into a huge thing, started serving enterprise and so forth.
So we know agentic AI and all the stuff is here.
It's genies out of the box or the bottle.
It's not going back in.
So there might be a small company out there that's working on some security things that we might want to look into.
Digital security. Also, anything that's user friendly some security things that we might want to look into. Digital security.
Also, anything that's user friendly, because some of this stuff sounds a little intimidating.
Yes.
But, you know, a company that has a great user interface makes this just very easy for the average user to get into.
That might be something to look into.
But, you know, I'll pass it back to Ben for any closing thoughts before we head out of here.
Anyone has anything to say?
This hour flew by.
This has been really, really fun.
I highly recommend that you would follow Story Trading, Dougie, Laptop Travel, Ariel there at the Diocese Holding, and any of the speakers that are – well, that's everybody today.
But normally we have different people in.
We have speakers come in sometimes for the second half.
So if you're not familiar with this show,
this happens every single week at
this time slot, and we just appreciate
everyone listening. But back to Ben.
Any closing thoughts or
like to leave us with what to check out
before we head out of here? Yeah.
I will just
know that
I'm looking for some
there's a lot of relative strength
in the drone defense
tech space today and the
small cap drone names
I'm trying to, I thought
there was a
I'm trying to see
what the catalyst may have been
I know AVAB won a $135 million
drone contract on
Friday, oh but it was Skydio US Army placed a $525 million drone contract on Friday. Oh, but it was Skydio.
U.S. Army placed a $52 million order for 2,500 Skydio drones.
And we also had ONDS report earnings this morning.
I'm not sure which of those catalysts, or maybe it was nothing to do with those catalysts,
has caused the relative strength in the sector today.
But I do want to note that UMAC here is starting to catch up with the sector.
They did an offering on Friday at $17 per share, and I don't think there were warrants either.
So it's actually trading below the offering price, which, you know, usually when you see that, it's because there are warrants. I don't think there are warrants in this case.
So just keep an eye on that.
Unusual Machines, UMAC, it looks like it may be making a move to the 20 DMA,
which is $16.80 and really close to the offering price of $17.
There's a gap there at $1,708 as well.
So that's something I'm looking at today and putting an afternoon trade in that one.
Good stuff there to close out on and as usual, I just
want to thank everyone for being here.
Any of you guys have any closing thoughts
before we head out? I just want to give you
one last opportunity before we shut down.
Okay, no hands, nothing.
So my name is Taj, hanging out with the Wolf crew,
and of course, the small trap, small cap, not trap, small cap trading crew.
Always fun to be here with you guys, always learn something.
So those of you that are not familiar with, again, with Wolf,
check out the schedule.
We have lots of things going on if you're into trading.
There is Jordan and Emp, a.k.a. aka Ryan doing live trading right now over at Wolf Trading.
Lots of shows later and so forth.
Just check out the schedule and you should see all the amazing things and all the speakers that are on stage.
They're doing things right within space of finance and tech and everything else, too, as well.
So check them out.
Highly recommend that you follow them and we'll be back next week.
You guys have a wonderful day and rest of the week.
