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SMALL CAP INVESTING
Recorded: Aug. 11, 2025 Duration: 1:19:42Space Recording
Short Summary
In a recent discussion, panelists explored the resilience of the crypto market, highlighting significant growth opportunities and strategic partnerships. Notable mentions included a $23 million deal with New York's MTA and the bullish outlook for AI-driven companies like Amplitude, indicating a strong trend towards innovation and collaboration in the blockchain space.
Full Transcription
Thank you. What is up, everyone? Welcome in. Happy Monday. August the 11th. It's 1 p.m. Eastern. It's
time for Small Cap Investing, the show that we do around small caps each and every week
with a great crew of different panelists, different mindsets, different approaches.
One of my favorite shows of the whole week.
Let me get Ben connected up here properly.
We have this connection every single time.
As soon as Ben joins, we run into this.
Looking around the market real fast, it's not a whole lot going on.
Trump was speaking a little bit earlier.
Market is a little bit sideways.
CPI coming down the pipe tomorrow morning.
We are basically break-even on the S&P.
Russell is also break-even.
Tech a little bit stronger, slightly up on the day, and the Dow slightly down on the day.
Not a whole lot going on on this Monday morning, but I know there's a whole lot going on since the last time we spoke.
So I'm happy to jump into it.
And Ben, I want to turn it over to you and let you kick us
off today. Yeah, great. Sorry, those technical issues. Oh, the Godfather is here. I thought he
was gonna not be here. Let's add him as a speaker. Beautiful. All right, first, a little bit of
housekeeping up front, and then we'll cover it at the end, too. I have a conflict next Monday, so we're going to have the space Tuesday.
What was it, Tuesday 1 o'clock at the same time?
I forgot now.
Was it 12?
Yes.
Yes, that's the plan.
We're going to do the normal show at 1 o'clock, but we're going to do it on Tuesday,
and then we're going to have a special guest, I believe, Ben, on the back half of that.
Yes.
Okay, so it'll be Tuesday.
I'll be out Monday, getting a little procedure.
So that's that.
And then there's some other scheduling things I'll mention at the end of the show.
But look, I mean, this market has been beautiful, right?
Especially 5QQ above the 20-day moving average.
IWM a little rockier.
But underneath the IWM, the risk assets have done really well.
And recently, over the last couple of weeks, there's been multiple bad economic data points
where the market's kind of taken that, we're in that paradigm of bad news is good news
and those bad economic data points, especially that jobs data that came really bad
and the revisions of the prior months.
Since that point, the price action underneath IWM and the risk assets have improved dramatically
as, I guess, the market looks forward to lower rates.
But it is a little bit scary this week with CPI tomorrow morning, 830 PPI
Thursday. So it is making me hesitate. You know, this morning was fine coming into this afternoon.
I'm a little worried about like swinging positions overnight. But, you know, all in all, I think,
But, you know, all in all, I think, you know, even if there are dips, I think also if CPI like misses by like 0.1% or something, which usually if there's something off, it's usually about like 0.1% or something like that, right?
will be down, but I think we'll recover because, you know, the Fed has a dual mandate.
And if the jobs data is bad, then, you know, maybe we'll kind of counterbalance each other
and we'll still get into that rate cut paradigm.
So, yeah, you know, it could be a little rocky, but like at this point, I just, it's hard
for me to envision that big crash that I was worried about in August, which seems to happen
crash that I was worried about in August, which seems to happen fairly often. And if it does
fairly often.
happen, I've been pretty consistently saying this over the past couple of weeks, if we do get that
pullback in August for whatever catalyst that may be, I think it's going to be a generational
buying opportunity. So, you know, I've been focusing a little more on stock picking and trying to ignore the indices.
And I've been doing that well over the last 10 days, like ignoring what the spike EQ are doing.
But I'm a little bit nervous for CPI tomorrow because it's an important number.
You know, if it comes in hot, it could ruin the party for, you know, at least a few hours.
It depends how hot it comes in and hopefully it won't be hot.
Hopefully it will be in line or light.
But in any case, that's my view on the macro,
and we'll go around the panel and see what everyone else has to say.
Money Mark, I want you to take it from here.
Actually, Ant, did you want to comment on that first?
No, all good on my
end we go ahead and start throwing it around I'm curious what everyone thinks
today yeah man I mean not not much to add there it does seem a little you know
you got the 10-year stable the two-year stable sentiment stable not extreme
either way you know there's a lot of moving parts always to make a call on
the macro and especially, it doesn't seem
like you've got great liquidity, but you've got the jobs data that's been coming down.
You've got the whole K-shaped recovery economy thing going on out there. I mean, at the end of
the day, at times like this, I really just focus on risk-reward. The Qs are at the top of the risk
reward line. The SPY is at the top of the risk reward line the spy is the top of the risk reward line
uh last week you know i'm back in the u.s by the way so that's good to be back um last week we had
a nice extensive conversation about is the market going to break out into bubble territory and
nothing has been resolved since then it's only been seven days we haven't seen any aggressive
movement for the market to break out into some kind of crazy bubble.
So we're just waiting for that.
So there's not much to talk about on that front.
So I'll just kind of save the time to talk about stocks on the second half of the show.
All right.
Yeah, I'm pretty much on that same page. Let's go to the Godfather Nose. Haven't
seen you in a while. Welcome back. What's on your mind? Hey, guys. Good morning. Yeah.
I managed to take a couple of long weekends this summer, but that's all over for me. So back to
business. So look, yeah, look, you know, in a week where there's not a lot, consequentially,
when it comes to corporate earnings, as you mentioned, the focus is really on the economic calendar this week.
And much of that focus, of course, is on CPI tomorrow.
And, you know, the market pundits are out saying that this is key to the September cut potential.
And I think that's definitely true.
Talks about going to 50 points, I think are
a bit optimistic. But, you know, just like earnings, it's all about investor positioning
going into this print as much as it is, you know, the print itself. And, you know, frankly,
the print itself, I think, will be on core somewhere close to consensus at 0.03, maybe 0.035,
something like that. But, you know, for the folks that actually track these
numbers, you have to get, you know, well about 0.035 on core into the 0.04 area to see even a
half a percent move in the S&P. So I don't think it's going to be that meaningful, frankly.
I think, you know, what's more meaningful is that the positioning,
given the weak non-farm payrolls last Friday, means that there's been a lot more bets placed
on this bull steepening, right? September is now all but certain when you look at the Fed
funds futures. So, look, I think the consensus view is that all we need is an inline CPI report here to greenlight the resumption of the cutting cycle.
And, you know, of course, people will be really parsing the data to look at, you know, the composition of inflation.
Is it in the tariff areas and non-tariff areas? That's going to be really important.
So, you know, the market, I think, is of the view that the Fed is going to look past the tariffs as a one-time tax.
And then, you know, really the focus is on these weakening numbers when it comes to employment and the overall economy.
And, you know, I don't think there's any debate about the path of rates being lower.
It's just sort of the cadence of those. And then,
of course, in a market being forward looking, we're already starting to talk about 2026.
And, you know, there's a lot of rate cuts in 2026 expected, and there's a lot of earnings growth
expected as well. You know, every week, it seems I come on here and I say the same thing that, you know, without much multiple
expansion, in fact, frankly, with with none based on the expectations we're seeing in terms of
earnings growth, there's enough there on earnings growth to see double digit returns to the indices
without really any multiple expansion. And I know there's a lot of talk about multiple expansion
since we're in the sort of 93rd percentile versus history
in terms of multiples on the S&P and the Qs.
But I'm very much in the camp that we are seeing
structurally higher return on invested capital
and solid earnings growth.
And those things together and combined should lead to
a robust denominator on the earnings side and then slightly higher and defensively higher
multiples. That said, I look at these indices on the technical levels like everybody else,
because I'm looking and watching these levels. And it's interesting to me that the Qs and the Spies are now above where we were, for the most
part, with that bearish engulfing candle that we saw on the day post-meta and Microsoft were sort
of marked the highs. The Qs are above that at 576. The high that day was 574. And SPY is very close to it, 638, 639. And I guess more importantly, we're solidly above the 9 and 21 day EMAs, which is the focus of short term traders. some sort of a summer swoon here. When it comes August, September, I don't know.
But the 50-day numbers give you 4.5% downside on the Qs, 3.5% on SPY.
I really think that would be very healthy for this market.
And I think it's going to come what exactly the catalyst will be in terms of the timing of that.
Your guess is as good as mine.
But honestly...
If I can step in right there, because you reminded me of something. And, you know,
I put in the morning note this morning, that strong earnings have maybe been a catalyst to
prevent that seasonal correction. And I kind of hinted, I guess Nvidia is the last big one
end of August, but I think once the earnings seasons are over, that could be the catalyst, the lack of a catalyst, right?
That can be the excuse or the reason why we get a pullback.
Yeah, it's hard to pinpoint where these things are going to come from, but I think you do need to step back.
And to the extent that there is weakness, look at what's on the calendar here. We've got Jackson Hole, 21st to 23rd of August. You know, the August non-farm payrolls report, you know, which is really, I think, much more of a market mover than CPI, as I mentioned, I think it'll be, you know, relatively benign.
you know, relatively benign. That's September 5 already. So to the extent that there's any
weakness over, you know, near-term concerns of, you know, strong inflation as a result of,
you know, some terrorist stuff creeping into the numbers, I think that could be, you know,
very quickly reversed on, you know, further weakness from the non-farm payroll number in September. So, yeah, what does it mean?
There's not a lot for the market to hang its hat on.
I will say, though, that since this is a small cap show,
we talked about the levels on the Qs and SPY,
it's worth looking at the IWM as well.
And we're right at the 9, we're below the 21,
but the 50 is not that low.
It's like one and a half percent below where we are today.
So, you know, could that get taken out?
I think, you know, quite easily, obviously, and probably highly likely.
Just as traders step away from their desks during, you know, this month and in September, as we know, is often weaker than August. So,
you know, there are times when the market says to do less and, you know, times where it's a
benefit to build some power and I think powder. And I think, again, you know, times like this are
times to do that. The other thing I'll say with respect to small caps versus large caps is that, you know,
there's a relatively high premium being put on the perceived safety of these large cap companies.
And for some, you know, in a lot of respects that that's warranted. If you look at the earnings
growth, yeah, this quarter expectations were for 4% would come in at 11. But, you know, most of that
has been skewed higher as a result of
called the Mag6, because we haven't heard from NVIDIA yet, being up some 26%.
So I still think that investors will be leaning into the relative perceived safety of these large
caps and the quality that goes along with them. The market has been difficult,
you know, beyond the key theme of AI and, you know, some of these other things that are working
again, obviously Ethereum and crypto and, you know, what's being talked about as stable coins
being embraced as a settlement rail and, you know, the tokenizing of real world assets and,
you know, what kind of size of markets that could mean in terms of Ethereum. So, you know, the tokenizing of real world assets and, you know, what kind of size of markets that could mean in terms of Ethereum.
So, you know, again, beyond these things, wow, the market's been fairly harsh, I think, this earning season.
And the bar is high for a number of these companies.
So when you're looking at small caps, quality, quality, quality.
In fact, there's only a few times of the year,
like the silly season at the end of the year
when traders step away again.
And we get some seasonal effects that,
buying non-quality can work.
But yeah, for now and during these months,
you can trade these things.
But from an investment standpoint,
more than ever,
quality needs to be your leading mantra. So not too much more to say about that. I'd love to talk
about Ethereum more, but this isn't a crypto call, so I'll leave it there. But it's pretty narrow in terms of breadth in this market, where the money wants to run to.
So the picks that I'm going to talk about in the latter half of the show are, call them second derivative picks,
or they're close in orbit around the biggest theme in this market, which is AI.
And, you know, honestly, it gets more and more difficult to find returns.
And honestly, it gets more and more difficult to find returns.
You know, I often say one of my mantras is I want to do more of what's working and I want to invest where the wind is at my back.
And a lot of that comes from money flow.
And if you can be in stocks that have quality managements, good prospects, and their benefits of that money flow, it's much easier to generate returns and frankly look good.
So I'll
leave it there
okay and either give me a feedback on that
that makes sense I think there's a lot of people trying to do the seasonality
side of things and I mean the seasonality is think there's a lot of people trying to do the seasonality side of things. And I mean, the seasonality is there. It's just because of what happened in April or March and April, it's just all off skewed right now.
I think it's just it's a tough time. And we're still in the dog days in the summer.
It just feels like it's just floating higher, waiting for a reason to sell off.
In a way, it's like it has no reason to stop going up, so it's just going to keep floating higher.
I mean, the volume is atrocious.
So I agree with that.
But at the same time, there's no reason to not have concerns.
I mean, crypto was mentioned there.
I mean, if you use that as a risk on barometer, risk is still completely on in this market at this point.
Yeah, I mean, we'll see what happens. I think I'm a little less pessimistic there than the godfather is.
You know, the market has been a little bit harder the last few weeks.
You know, it's not a market anywhere where
every single little crack company is going up on any catalyst. But however, the higher
quality companies have still been reacting remarkably well to earnings, even just small
earnings beats, even just like, okay, our EPS guide, we're going to increase it by like 5% this year and the stocks are going up like 20%.
I've seen that like every day over the past five to 10 days.
So the popular high quality names, as long as they're guiding up even just a little bit, it still almost looks like a crazy bull market.
Just kind of underneath it a little bit, there has been some differentiation so far
with the lower quality names not performing as well.
But, you know, I don't know.
So I haven't seen that major change in character or tone.
We did have it for a couple days there around Microsoft Meta, but
from there, I think it's recovered. And things, you know, from where I look at them,
seems like the risk appetite is still there, you know, as long as your quality company that's,
you know, beating your estimates by just a little bit, you know, seems to be pretty game on. That
doesn't mean there can't be a correction or there won't be a September correction.
I just see it a little bit more, I think, positively so far there than the Godfather does.
Let's go to Dougie Fresh.
How is everybody today?
Yeah, this market is a little odd right now, but you know what?
The SPY is running up.
It's setting up like a really good setup, but it's hitting that top area.
That's 640.
Remember we were talking about it last week, and that's where it has to get over to really start cruising again.
So will it get over now?
I don't really think so because it's under the MACD.
It does not look like it wants to cross through
unless them reports tomorrow come out like amazing,
the CPI and you have your PPI on Thursday.
So we will see.
And again, we could see that pullback
that you guys are mentioning,
just a slight pullback to let these guys
make a lot of room on the charts.
And then in September, we're going to see that rate cut.
I can't imagine we don't see a rate cut happen. And that's exactly what everybody's been waiting for, especially
Trump. And you know, he can just crank up the market at any time. So we could see it pull back
the SPY back to the 50, which is around like 617. We're at 637 right now. And your trend line's at
about 610. And then talking about the IWM because, of course, it's a small cap show.
We're right underneath of our 20, which is at 221.
We're at 220.24 right now.
And it looks like it's just going to kind of hang out in this little pocket right here between 220 and 217 area.
And that's where the 50 is.
And kind of just make room stair step down. They don't
look like they want to really crash down. They just look like they want to kind of slowly retrace
and the market's kind of moving slow, which is good for them to make a lot of room on the charts,
which helps out. So they have been like kind of going really slow. So if you try to try to time
them out perfectly, they've been a little off the last few weeks. And that's the reason the market's
running a little slow. But I'm telling you, they're making great space on these charts.
And if they keep them up like this, we are going to see some astronomical running happen in here.
So will we see a little pullback? We could, but it's not
going to be correction, I don't think. I think it's just going to be a little healthy pullback
that it needs to finish making that last bit of room on the charts and then just get ripping.
And Godfather was talking about Ethereum and crypto and holy cow, crypto is going nutty. I
mean, Bitcoin's been at like between 120 right now and and 122 it's been ripping along
right now it's at 119.764 but it's been cruising and crypto if that gives you a good idea it's
going to get ripping these markets are setting up guys it's kind of crazy what they look like but
we've been talking about it and i would not be surprised if we don't hit that bubble territory that Money Mark's been saying in the 99-type area.
Because AI is just fueling this thing.
It's not going away, and it's constantly just pumping money in.
We just had our earnings.
They were obviously pretty good earnings cycle right there.
And I think you're right ben i think the non-earnings and no news may see that little
bit of drawback right here because the earnings were so wild and now a little bit of drawback
have that uh movement on the chart to really get them set up and then they'll get ripping and wild
and i can only imagine right around like october november december this market should be cruising
like really flying
up there. And then you have your midterms coming up after the new year. So they got to get set up
for that as well. And they have to keep this market really soaring and you'll have some rate
cuts in between. So I think it is setting up to get rolling. It's just a matter, just be a little
bit patient right now. Pay attention to the ones that are really set up that want to run and don't look at
them as long swings.
They're really kind of quick right now because they go up and then they pull back pretty
fast.
It's all across the market.
So that's what you're looking at right now.
And then we'll obviously look at some particular stocks and see what else is happening.
And I think Ariel's on. So Ariel, if you want to
go ahead after me right now, you can feel free. I always like to listen to the banking side and
what you have to say. So there you go, Ariel. Hey guys. Yeah. Thanks for having me jump in
right here. Yeah. So look, I was writing notes as you guys are talking and I love it
because I hear from all perspectives.
But when I'm looking at the markets, I'm looking at there's so many themes at play here.
I mean, you're looking at the crypto blockchain theme, the rare earth theme, the AI chat GPT theme, the inflation, the tariffs, and then drones and war.
and war and is there now peace with Russia and you know there's so much going on so much noise yet
And is there now peace with Russia?
there's so many ways to pick the opportunities for you to like start making money and that
I don't know I feel like with Trump in office again give or take your love or not love for the
guy you know he's just all pure capital markets and I can't help but feel that there's very little that I feel is going to get in the way of this train that's just constantly pushing ahead.
And let's not forget, we had our scare this year. We had our so-called pivotal moment like we did during the middle of COVID and, I don't know, in the downgrade crisis.
middle of COVID and I don't know, in the downgrade crisis, you know, there's so many, so many things
that already, and then you see in the, in the past that we come out and then the charts just go
higher. And I always believe in the contrarian type thinking, you know, if the masses all believe
one thing, like we're going to have a, you know, the market's going to sell off to correction
territory. I'm going to be like, well, wait a second. What happens if it doesn't? What's the move that is the pain point move?
You know what I mean? Like, where does the stock have to go for me to be like, oh, no.
And whenever I think like that, I kind of look at it both ways. If I was short or if I was long,
it's probably going to go there, the pain point. So I guess that's my first instinctual kind of
thinking here that, you know, I would
tell you that what was in the news recently, as we all know, is ChatGPT coming out, right? ChatGPT5.
And what people are, weren't too thrilled with the rollout, but it just continues to show you
where we're going as a society. We're talking about robots from Tesla. And then all of a sudden you see Tesla coming through with some terrible numbers, but yet the stock's just ripping. Or AMD coming through with not great numbers and it's ripping. What does that tell us? that connects everything with crypto and blockchain that is now connected to, you know, all the things.
This is why we're having so much expansion in that market cap territory of the likes of NVIDIA and STX and those names.
You look at everything being connected.
So what am I trying to say here in the small caps?
There are so many jewels here that you could just follow the thematics
and find the best of breed and buy that company. And that to me is where I'm sure Mark and a few
of you guys are going to come through with some really good names today that I'm going to be
listening to. But that's my whole take on it. And the last point I am going to make is when I see the markets moving in the way they are so quickly,
and we're now around 10% up for the year and we're going to probably go higher,
that I, as a CEO, and now talking from the banker hat, I'd be like, guys, what are we talking about here?
Raise as much money as you can right here, right now when times are good.
Don't raise it when your stock's tanking.
Raise it as the stock goes higher.
So there are certain times these raises are solid and they're very positive because your
use of proceeds is what you need to look for is acquisition growth or you're buying something
that's going to only add value and increase book value.
But what I'm trying to say here is that you got to look at, especially small caps, look if they have an ATM. The ATMs that they put in place, in my opinion, is the
best source of capital for these small companies, because you're not going to be prone to a
announcement that out of nowhere says, oh, hey guys, we're at five bucks and we just raised at
four with a full warrant at four and then guess where your stock's
trading at 350 and you just got smoked um so so that's one of the things i am gonna give you guys
some that that point of view that i bring to the table is that watch for companies that have a
shelf out there and and then use chat gpt just say hey is there a current atm on file with the
company right now and if not, then beware.
Beware that that could happen where there's the announcement.
Sorry about the background noise, but that's my take.
Very good take.
And real quick, guys, what do you think about the AMD and NVIDIA getting 15% giving that to the government?
What kind of crazy deal is that?
Have you ever heard of anything like that before? I can't even believe that's like happening,
but what do you guys think about that crazy deal? I mean, it's great for the U S but
how wild is that? Like who made that deal? I obviously Trump, but I can't believe
they agreed to it. So what do you guys think about that thing?
I'll jump in to me. What it shows me is that it's pay to play, right?
But also tells me there's only two players here.
And that it's like, you know, if you want to be in this game, you got to pay to play.
And the returns are going to be infinite.
And that's like the biggest positive I think I could see.
Yeah, that's a good point right there, Ariel.
I would have to agree with you.
I didn't really think about that, but you got a really good point. What do you guys think about it, Money Mark and Ben and
Godfather? What do you think about that? Well, look, I've been all over AMD on the
run-up into earnings for the last couple of months, and I popped on the earnings call,
and it was clear that the next path, because the earnings itself were not too great. I mean,
I think it was like a modest speed on the revenue. And I think
the EPS missed by a little bit. And same with the guide. So it was clear from the conference call
that the next catalyst is going to be getting this export license to China. And I was like,
I'm jumping in as soon as there's any talk of them getting this export license. So you know what,
like anything that's happening with the Trump administration,
it's all unprecedented.
So nothing surprises me anymore and nothing kind of phases me.
I'm not going to read into it too much.
I'm just like very transactional at this point.
I'm like, hey, that's what they needed.
AMD needed this export license and it looks like they're on their way to getting it.
So, you know, it's a buy, you know.
It's better to have 85% revenue than zero percent revenue coming in from China.
I'll just say that, you know, for a sector, I think they're getting off quite well.
Right.
They've more or less been exempt from uh from uh tariffs
and to the extent that uh it's 10 or 20 percent of revenue whatever it is for each of these companies
it's like a 15 tariff so uh i agree with all the comments that net net it's it's a positive you saw
that net, it's a positive. You saw nothing in the guide out of AMD as a result of lack of clarity.
Market rewards clarity. And clearly those China numbers, minus 15%, are coming back into the
guidance again. So frankly, I'm not surprised. If I'm surprised at all, I'm surprised about the
lack of positive reaction to this news in the market. So look,
I think it's just a matter of days before AMD takes out its previous highs in the 180s,
on route to 200 plus without looking back. Because anybody with a vision that's more than six months
forward can see the product roadmap that they've outlined and the noise in the quarter was exactly that.
They've cemented themselves as a leader in CPU.
CPU is extremely important in combination with GPU.
And the focus has always been, wow, 97% market share NVIDIA, whatever the actual number is these days.
It's single digits for for amd and
others um ask me where you think those ratios are going to go and uh you know i'll tell you that
uh amd starts to win some share um it's been confirmed by um contract wins with uh the likes
of meta the likes of open ai uh Oracle, and others. And I see,
you know, nothing but additions to that client list going forward. I couldn't be more bullish
about AMD, frankly. Some good insight right there. Moneymark, did you want to say anything
about that AMD in the video? No, I mean, the pay to play is really what it comes
down to. I mean, is a capitalist and he's playing a capitalist game right now. So you're going to
see deals like this. I think at the end of the day, you know, if you see these corporations
making these deals, then they're happy with the outcome or at least neutral on it, right?
They can't be really negative on a deal deal you're not going to do a deal
that you don't think is fair to you um or detrimental to your company right so at the
end of the day um i trust these executives to make the decision that they should be making and
and it's all good yeah and i have to agree with godfather amd does not look like it's going to
be coming down anytime soon that stock that chart looks like it just wants to keep going and going and going. So yeah, I think you guys are right on the money with a kind of pay to play, almost like% franchise fee, and them guys can do whatever and sell as much as they want to China, and nobody cares.
So interesting right there, but there you go, obviously, NVIDIA has proven itself to be completely unassailable
in terms of the super data center ecosystem.
They've just got too many pieces put together,
so it's not about the processor.
It's about the entire ecosystem.
And NVIDIA's got that unlocked.
But now as we move more into kind of inference
and providing services off of these large, these LLMs, this is where you're seeing AMD moving up in price because, you know, Wall Street being forward looking as opposed to retail investors kind of looking at what's maybe right in front of their faces.
They're saying, shit, this is going to be a tremendous couple of years ahead for AMD.
And I agree with that for the entire AI ecosystem because Blackwell is just rolling out.
This Blackwell cycle is going to be amazing.
What it enables, it's going to be amazing.
So right now we're just having the infrastructure being put in place with the Blackwell cycle.
And then you're going to see the benefits coming out of it. You see JetGPT, you see Grock, you see what's happening with that.
It's just going to keep going. So what we can look for is as long as these models keep getting
stronger, bigger, better, faster, the amount of value that investors can get from it, customers can get from these
models is going to continue to increase as well. So I'm playing around with Grok and everything
else and what kind of videos it can create just on a simple prompt. I mean, it's amazing. It's amazing. And we're not even, we're still not
scratching the surface, right? Because the bigger these data centers get, the more GPUs that you can
string together, the more data that you can put into these things. Remember, this is artificial
intelligence. What we've done as a human race or as an industry, the AI industry, is look at how do human beings get intelligent.
I have a 14-month-old human being here, and I watch.
I've been observing her getting intelligent.
And as more and more data goes in and you process that data, you can start to put things together.
You start to realize that, okay, if I say this is a black car and a red car and a white
car, you say, well, they all look the same except for the color. So car must be the common thread,
but black, white, and red is what distinguishes them from each other. And then I can say,
that's a black plant and a white plant and a green plant. And then, okay, I'm starting to get colors
now. Now put that on an infinite scale in terms of the amount of data that's being thrown in
and the amount of variables that it can process against,
and then put an increasing number of processors onto those tasks.
We're not even scratching the surface yet.
I couldn't agree with you more and more
acting that Grok AI. I've been
playing around with that video and the photo
generation and had to go out
and buy some private shares of Grok
after I saw the XAI.
Pretty incredible. I do have to
take exception to one thing you said though
that retail is just
looking at what's in front of them and institutions
are looking forward-looking.
Honestly, my experience is just the opposite.
I feel like institutions, maybe there's a discussion for another time,
but I think institutions, they just care about the next quarter,
and they're playing to that, whereas retail, a lot of retail,
it depends which retailer I talk to, but for the most part,
I think most retail, they're looking out 5, 10, 15, 20 years ahead. And that's why sometimes you see these, you know,
these meme stocks where retail is really looking forward. They believe in management. They believe
in the long-term vision and they're willing to, you know, hold through the rockiness of quarter
to quarter. So I just take exceptions to that little slight against retail because in some
ways I think retail are better investors and more visionary, more forward-looking than institutions that are just being transactional quarter to quarter.
That's what I've seen.
I'm sure there's all kinds of institutions and all kinds of retail.
But anyway.
Yeah, and that's a fair take.
And your last part, I think, is really what it comes down to, right? Like I've been able to make over 40% a year for 30 years on the back of being able to figure out which small and micro caps are underestimated out there.
So and overestimated. Right. So you do get the stigma where there's a problem amongst retail investors where they don't have the resources of the Wall Street crowd. And so
they have to rely oftentimes on the imagination, on the vision of what can happen. Right. And
therefore, if you are a CEO that knows how to tell a great story, a lot of times you might not
have to back it up for a while because if you could tell a good enough story the retail investors will
give you a pass because okay it's coming it's coming it's coming um you know that's that's
where we make our bread right then i mean you know with these small and micro cap stocks we can
we often uh more often than not we can tell the bs from the reality and many times the boring
reality that wins and a lot of times it's the sexy stories that lose.
And I guess that's what we're here to figure out.
So no, good take.
I get it.
All right, let's jump into stock.
I don't have any particular stocks I feel strongly about that I'm like, all right,
here's a major inflection point.
You got to keep the stock. We're in earnings season now. And one of the things I love doing
in earnings season is reacting quickly to inflection point catalysts to capture like a
one to two, sometimes one to three day move of 20, 30, 40%. That's one of my favorite things to do.
So I'm just going uh point a few tickers
your way that are my radar that maybe could have reactions like that if we hear what we want to
hear from them all right um one is kodak we'll be looking at that after the close today uh we have
um asps obviously but that's a little larger. But we're looking at that pretty closely to see what they say about their launches coming up.
Tomorrow, there's ONDS, drone company, reporting tomorrow morning.
So that's an interesting one to look at.
There's also Zevra Therapeutic, ZVRA, which has been, they kind of inflected last quarter, to tell you the truth.
So we'll see if that inflection has accelerated here.
That's tomorrow after the close.
So I especially like these
these stocks that have inflected like a zvra and then if you see an acceleration of that inflection
so zvra comes in tomorrow afternoon and it's like they beat again by a big margin or whatever like
i'll just jump on that kind of stuff um very quickly and try to get these big double digit
percent moves in a very short amount of time.
So those are some tickers I'm looking at.
Actually, let me mention a couple more.
SPCB, which I actually don't own this in my short-term account now.
I do own it in my long-term account.
This is really interesting.
It's gotten picked up by a Seeking Alpha author last week, SPBCB, because it looks incredibly cheap.
Finally, someone picks it up and they're running it.
At least their followers have been running this stock into the earnings report.
Wow, it's come up from $9 to about $12 in just a few sessions.
Really overlooked company, it looks like, when you look at all of the contracts they've been winning,
we'll see if that is flowing through to their top and bottom line.
And that is going to be Wednesday.
No, that's Thursday.
Thursday before the open, right?
So there's another one.
Thursday before the open, right?
If they have really good, in this case, there's probably no analyst coverage,
so I'll have to go back and see what they reported last quarter and if they have a nice sequential increase in revenue. If
they're inflecting towards profitability, something like that, that's one I might pick up
and jump on really hard in my short-term account. I do own that SPCB long-term.
I also want to mention a couple other names real quick, a couple sponsored names.
Synesek, which you know, SNES, they reported last week.
I do just want to mention here just a technical fact.
It's pulled back to the 50 DMA.
And actually, there's very interesting support there, $4.31.
We're sitting on it right now.
Personally, I think you're
gonna need now catalyst I think this has had a nice appreciation and to kind of
grown into where it needs to be and then now we're waiting for a next set of
catalysts hopefully to see if you know market wants to take to the next level
at Sinessec and the last thing I'll mention is mobility calm this is a
company on long term I don company I own long-term.
I don't own a short-term account.
And I've actually been pursuing working with this company.
I do want to represent them.
I'd like to amplify their story and get it out there.
So we finally secured a small engagement with them.
And we'll see.
Maybe we'll grow into a Synestec-like relationship.
If we're going to date a little bit first and if I like what they have to say,
maybe we'll go out there and really amplify their story.
But tomorrow morning at 10.30 a.m., we're interviewing the CEO of Mobilicom, M-O-B.
Now, I don't have a short-term position in this stock,
and frankly, I'm not going to take it
until or unless this interview goes well.
Sometimes I'll buy during the interview if it goes well.
I don't know what it's going to say.
I have a bunch of tough questions for him.
So anyway, this is going to be the start of maybe a longer-term relationship.
We'll see.
I only take on clients that I really believe in and I feel they can reflect to profitability.
So we'll talk to the CEO of MOB tomorrow.
So I'll give you like six, seven, maybe eight small cap names.
I don't really have anything in particular that I feel I'm just looking at.
You know, Peloton's interesting.
They had what I would call an inflection ER report,
and then Goldman Sachs hopped on with a big price target right after their earnings report.
Zacks hopped on with a big price target right after their earnings report.
But in any case, you know, in my, you know, dealings here on X and on Discord,
I'm really looking for these swing moves over a period of days to weeks
where I'm taking advantage of inflection catalysts and re-ratings happening right before a catalyst,
right after a catalyst.
And, you know at
this point right now this second don't have anything huge for you to say hey hold it until
next week last week i think we gave you btbt which exploded last week into that um that ipo from uh
wi-fi which worked out really superbly so anyway that's my list of stuff for you guys to think about
who's going next I can go next go for it so um speaking of boring names you know
we are on absolute fire with two of our the boring names I've been pushing over
the last several months we got geodrill g e o d f just pulling gold two of the boring names I've been pushing over the last several months. We got Geodrill, G-E-O-D-F, just pulling gold out of the ground for those gold miners,
owning tons of drills, buying more drills. They've got a whole maintenance setup.
They are the most efficient drill company out there, making the highest margins,
providing the highest throughput on the drills.
They just announced an absolute blowout quarter, their highest ever quarterly
revenue, highest quarterly EBITDA. We had a top line. I mean, this is a company that
drills, that just pulls metal out of the ground, growing 22% year over year,
growing income from operations, 25%, growing EBITDA, 30%.
And absolutely blowout quarter. We ended up with, let's see, across the board, and now EBITDA margins,
And now EBITDA margins, 28%, also a high.
So the company for the first six months of the year put up 23 cents of EPS.
And that's in U.S. dollars.
And the stock is trading in U.S. dollars at $3.74.
So if you annualize that 23 cents, if they go at a 46 cents, you're trading at far less than 10 times for a company
that's growing over 20% right now with no signs of letting up. Trump just said that gold won't
be tariffed. Gold is still down on the day, but partly probably because the dollar is up on the
day. So we're getting a little bit of sell the news on GEODF, but that one continues to do well,
continues to be undervalued.
If you just take the street value of their drills alone, this stock needs to keep going up.
If you just look at the EPS, the stock needs to keep going up.
If you look at the growth, the stock needs to keep going up.
And it has up 72% just in the last four months, making a new all time high once again this morning.
Also boring TPCS on the defense side.
I've been talking about defenses being a key sector.
For a long time, I've said that they had a overhead resistance
in the form of 335,000 shares that were going to come to market
from a transaction that was made a while back.
Those shares cleared in two days. That was
reported within my community 17 days ago. The stock is up 77% since then. And I made that last
week, a new official pick in my portfolio. I'm currently working to update the model because
I've got some new late breaking information that I just couldn't process in time for this call.
But I'm looking at them putting up over $1 of EPS in the next couple of years based on what we're seeing in terms of government orders lined up.
Stocks still only trading at $5.65, but again, up 77% in 18 days.
Not so boring after all.
Gatekeeper GKPRF, they signed a $23 million deal. They didn't sign it. I'm sorry.
They were selected for a $23 million deal by New York City, the MTA, just for Long Island, which is only one eighth of the entire MTA. So this could balloon out
into, um, you know, eight times 23. So that's a $185 million contract in Canadian dollars.
That's 250 million, uh, in Canadian dollars. This is a $30 million deal. They did 37 million
all last year. So this one deal represents the most of last year's entire revenue.
The news that I'm giving you right now is that deal, not only have they been selected,
but the selection has been ratified, hasn't been press released, and they may be forced to do so
before tomorrow because they are going to be at a conference tomorrow and Wednesday doing one-on-ones with
institutions. I let the cat out of the bag on Friday about the ratification of this deal,
which means it's going to go through. It's going to be contracted. They've got the monster deal.
They are the front runner in Toronto. So now you're going to have the number one,
number three, and number five public transit authorities in North America, all being covered by gatekeeper GKPRF.
And then last but not least at all, I wanted to save this one for last. We had an earnings
announcement from Amplitude, which to me is a great play on AI. They are utilizing AI to
basically, it's like automated optimization right if you were
doing e-commerce these guys are helping you to use AI to figure out what the
customers think of products what is their experience like going through the
sales process and the whole thing is something that has been done by humans for a long, long time.
They came along several years ago offering analytics that help humans make decisions.
Well, now the AI is making recommendations on those decisions, but now taking it to a whole new level.
The AI is automating the process of enacting those recommendations,
including making entire new web pages if necessary. So you saw in the quarter, multiple
major players give them multi-million dollar deals, Microsoft being one of them, a multi-year,
multi-million dollar deal. Shopify uses them and they put up a phenomenal quarter, but the stock is down.
And this is what's crazy to me because I've been an analyst in the software space for 20 years
because the EPS guidance has pulled back a little bit. Well, of course, dummy,
when you're a SaaS company, when you recognize revenue on a ratable basis, if I sign a $12 million a year contract with you, you can only recognize $1 million per month.
But I might pay my salespeople $3 million on that deal up front.
So what just happened?
My company got stronger.
My company got stronger. We signed a $12 million deal. But the cash flow looked negative because I just gave a check to the salesperson for $3 million and I'm only going to collect $1 million per month. But I'm going to collect $1 million per month and then I'm going to renew that contract for another $12 million or $13 million and keep going and keep going.
We signed a $12 million deal.
So what happens is with a SaaS company, when you have a phenomenal quarter, when you decide to hire more salespeople because business is so good, because your product is so dominant in the marketplace, your expenses go up.
But your future also goes up.
So those stocks back when I was an official analyst, I've been retired since 08, but when I was an analyst back in, let's say, 98, this stock would have been up 20% on the news of what they had just done.
14% revenue growth, 16% growth in ARR, 18% growth in sequential annualized ARR, and 20% growth in remaining performance obligation.
So the further out you go on the timing spectrum of them recognizing revenue, the growth number
goes up and up and up. That means the company's growth is accelerating. And at the same time,
they've been recently validated by third-party, unbiased, independent industry experts like Forrester and Gartner Group as being far and away, like not even close.
There's nobody can touch what these guys are doing because they brought it all together, a bunch of functionality into a platform.
Right. So they're winning all the major enterprise deals. They're building a major enterprise Salesforce. And what that does is it turns them into the equivalent of a Salesforce.com
or an Oracle for their space. Don't get me wrong. I don't expect their market cap to go to those
levels. But what Oracle has is a platform. What Salesforce.com has is a platform. A number of these major companies that you see with 8, 10, 12x multiples, they're platforms. And what that enables them to do is just develop new software, which by the way is much easier now with AI, and acquire innovative little companies, plug it into that platform, and instantly generate more revenue with their expanding
customer base. So to see the stock actually lower now than before they announced these results,
crazy to me. I have made this my personal largest position as a result of what I've seen
from those earnings results. I went over the earnings call with a fine tooth comb a couple
times. I got nothing but more excited each time. These guys are trading at four times next year's
revenue and 90% of that revenue is already in the bag if you look at the metrics.
So they're sandbagging. There's no way with 90% of the next year's revenue in the bag that that number is not going to go up.
So you're going to continue seeing beats on the top line.
If you see misses on the bottom line, it's only because they're hitting the accelerator on expenses.
Company trading at 4x revenue with that profile is undervalued by upwards of 2x.
This stock should have a two-handle, not a one-handle,
maybe by the end of this year. So that was amplitude, you're talking about, AMPL?
That's AMPL. And look, uncharacteristic for me, right? Because I like my companies under 500
million, but this company has such a profile. Cantaloupe CTLP was another one that had a
profile that made me
overlook the fact that the market cap is at levels where institutions look at it,
mainly because I have the 30 years of experience. I'll put my experience toe-to-toe with any
Wall Street analysts out there. They're not retired. They're still working for a living.
So yeah, it's AMPL. It's Amplitude. I would encourage anybody to go out onto YouTube and get a little demonstration of what they do. They actually provided one live on the earnings call. Extraordinarily impressive product. And it's just basically automated the optimization of revenue and profitability for e-commerce sites and being called the best of
breed player in doing so. Come on. Real quick, we're running late, but GKPRF, I heard from
someone else on the conference call, they haven't even mentioned this. Not PR'd and not mentioned
on conference calls. Is that true? Yeah, that's absolutely true. Well, it just got ratified,
right? So after something like that happens, first of all, you know, New York doesn't PR that. It was on page 13 of an 81 page document that I went through. Right. You had to go through all the minutes of their of their board meeting.
be interesting to see if they're now forced to PR because the news is, the word is out there,
but they haven't announced it. They haven't disclosed it. And they have a conference.
We're going to be talking to institutional analysts for the next two straight days. And
I've made sure that some of the folks going there know about this. They're going to be talking about
it. So in order for them to comment, they've got to get something out to the public, presumably.
We'll see. Okay. Last thing. Let's make it quick i know early on the trump administration
you uh were playing the fannie mae freddie mac stuff um and it's back in the news we don't have
time to get in the details but the ipo this year real quick is this a buy here or not no no i mean
it could it could work but you know the original math we did got us out of the stock long before these levels. I mean, we were in here in the ones before Trump won for the presidency. I told you that FNMA was the number one play on Trump winning the presidency, not DJT or anything else like that. The stock is now 1138. If you got in at any level in the last two years, you're up,
get out, move your money into something else. Okay, let's move on. Sorry for taking up so
much time there. Godfather knows, let's go. Yeah, so the two stocks I want to talk about
today are related and they're in the same theme.
One is just reported blockbuster numbers and one is now a what do you call battleground stock, if you will, and they report on Thursday.
So quickly with the one that just reported, it's OUST, Oster, however you want to say it.
Look, both of these companies do the same thing, and that is they bring intelligence to infrastructure.
So, you know, what is AI doing in the physical world?
Well, it's bringing things like traffic cameras, security cameras, IoT devices, drones, cars,, cars, anything to do with industrial automation,
whether sensors involved, making the physical environment smart.
And what this requires, it requires the sensors, the LiDAR type sensors that OUST produces.
It requires software built around those for package solutions.
And then it requires silicon that's really good at inference in remote locations.
And in order to do that, and so think about it as a mini silicon, because these computations, you don't have time in a car that's trying to assess whether it's a stop sign, a yield sign, or some other traffic obstruction to send to a cloud and then to a data center, get your decision, come back to the car again.
All this stuff is done real time with the processing power that is on board.
real time with the processing power that is on board.
And this requires extremely efficient compute.
It requires different types of architecture.
And this is really, I would say,
one of the least crowded areas in the chip industry
in hardware side of things relative to the size of the TAM. I mean, TAM numbers
aren't really worth the ink that it printed on, but you can throw out some really large numbers.
We're talking in the hundreds of billions of dollars, you know, just for each of North America
and, you know, Asia markets separately, et cetera, for next generation intelligent infrastructure
solutions. And this is all stuff that's happening today. So OUST, we started pounding the table on
this as the stock broke through 16. They announced that their sensors were approved by the DOD,
their blue UAS. And so, you know, that can be incorporated into next gen defense that KTOS and Andro and so on are doing.
And, you know, we know is the priority for defense spend going forward.
But just quickly to recap their numbers, they basically said to the street, look, we're going to continue to grow at 30 to 50 percent.
They're seeing great traction in traffic cameras. They're seeing great traction in retail, assessing crowds. They're seeing great traction in security. Industrial is their largest vertical, followed by automotive.
automotive. And again, I think Ariel made the point about the ATMs. If you look at the cash
position in this company, they raised $60 million through their ATM just in the last quarter alone.
They're now at sort of $230 million in net cash. I'm talking about OUST here as an example
for the next name, which is Blaze BZAI. So OUST, now at around $30, you're trading around
7.8 times next year's revenue. There's a great deal of granularity here with respect to units
shipped. There's a lot of speculation about the key customers, et cetera, some of which they've
been public about, some of which they haven't. But nonetheless, their traction is being rewarded
by the market with this almost eight times forward
EV to sales multiple.
And I think it's justified, but let's face it,
at 16, there was a lot more juice in it than here at 30.
It probably continues to grind higher from here
because I see their business doing exactly that.
Blaze on the other end, these guys are doing the same thing, package solutions, software and hardware.
Their main hardware contribution is a graph processing silicon,
which is exactly something that's made efficient at site to do inference in specific use cases.
Now, I know while I was away on the weekend, Ragnar came out with a short report,
which was doubled down on by White Diamond. They're basically calling out Starshine Computing,
who is the company that awarded them that bla Blaze $120 million contract over 18 months.
And let's look at Blaze on a market cap or an adjusted market cap basis and enterprise value
basis right now. It's trading around $335 million. The company's guidance is for at least $130 million next year. So some estimates are $140.
Either way, you're around 2.4 to 2.6 times EV to sales.
Again, contrast that to OUST, which is now around 8.
Look, this company is, I know SPACs get a bad rap.
It was initially a SPAC.
They did go out with a public and IPO
valuation of 1.2 billion. It's never seen that valuation since. But this is a company founded
by two engineers from Intel and the other engineer spent a bunch of time at NVIDIA as well.
This is a company that was initially seed funded in the Valley by Daimler, by Samsung, by Tomasik.
This is a company where the CEO was named Innovator of the Year in Silicon Valley.
This is a company that has the former CFO of Marvell on the board.
It's got past executives from Palo Alto and Zscaler.
This is a reputable company by my research.
I expect them to defend. Certainly, there's going to be a lot of questions on Thursday when they
report after the close about Starshine. Starshine wasn't even on my radar screen. This is a company
that's inflecting from doing field trials and pilot programs and
validations for large customers to actually shipping product. And they had hinted to guys
like Turbo Federal. They've hinted to a Gulf Country Ministry of Defense, CBIST, which I
gather is a leader in Korean smart city automation.
I expected something to come out of these guys.
They talk about a $400 million backlog right now that they're converting, or pipeline,
opportunity pipeline, that they're converting into multi-year contracts.
So this came out of left field for me.
It's one contract, $120 million.
Obviously, it's huge in the context of an EV to sales of 335. But look, I don't think there's any
concern about the potential marketplace for edge AI solutions that these guys can provide.
There is skepticism in the market because they're essentially going from, well, this year they're
talking about at least $35 million in revenue, but last year there really wasn't any revenue
to something that shows almost 300% growth going into 2026. So you need to get this hardware
packaged with their software, their solutions actually in the market to show credibility,
Are there solutions actually in the market to show credibility to see this sort of multiple expansion?
Now, the stock traded from the low threes or essentially three all the way up to $5.56 on the announcement of this $120 million deal.
And it's basically come off completely day by day since then, you know, back down to the low threes again.
day by day since then, you know, back down to the low threes again. So we'll see how long it takes
the market to get over their skepticism on this. But I will say there are some very credible
analysts on this name as well, including Gil Lauria at DA Davidson, who I hold in regard as
one of the most skeptical analysts out there. He's been very vocal on Corweave, for example,
and their business model.
I've already highlighted the board of directors here.
Like I said, by all accounts, this is a real company.
Rosenblatt is also all over this name.
So I can go through, you know, the 10 reasons to be bullish,
you know, on this, all the way from decent guidance, the TAM, the type of margin profile you can expect at maturity for a product like this, which is in the high 20s, low 30s, the type of technology solutions that this provides.
I mean, localized AI is no longer optional, okay?
It's foundational.
You need to be able to scale hybrid systems,
you know, at the edge.
These things need to be low latency.
They need to be extremely efficient doing inference.
They need to have very low energy use.
They need to be real-time multimodal.
And they need to be cost-efficient.
And these guys are providing all of that with their NoCode AI Studio solution.
It's just a question of getting validation in the field.
And we're early days on that.
So you could see the stock double just on confidence coming back on either the Starshine
contract or them announcing some further conversion of this opportunity pipeline, as they call
it, into actual multi-year contracts.
So by all accounts, we're right at that inflection point.
And essentially, I think it's an asymmetric risk reward at these levels into a market
that's one of the most robust that I see across the board.
So $335 million market cap compares to OUST at $1.3 billion.
But if you look at the revenue numbers, they're essentially one year behind is all.
So I like the risk reward down here in the low threes.
I'll be watching very closely to see what management has to say about the short report as well as conversion of that pipeline on Thursday.
conversion of that pipeline on Thursday.
But I like the opportunity down here.
But I like the opportunity down here.
Hey, can you directly give your point of view on that short report?
They're basically saying we think the company doesn't exist because the website for Starshine
was just spun off a few weeks ago and it's using all stock imagery.
I know you spoke about it in our Discord,
but if you can just kind of repeat your...
Yeah, look, I haven't seen the full report
because it's behind paywall.
But yeah, this is my understanding of the core of it.
But oftentimes you get new entities
that are formed for purposes of awarding these contracts.
So it's a question of who's behind it.
Is it a consortium of companies that are getting together
to purchase these products from Blaze?
This is the sort of color that I expect to see.
That's not unusual to see a new corporate structure
stood up for purposes of a contract.
Yes, it's much more comforting when you know the end users, Tomasik
or Samsung or
whomever.
But I think
it's a matter of, well, we know it's a matter of days
before we get some clarification on that.
So beyond that, I have not
read the short report.
And I'm not here to
defend it on behalf of the internet.
I appreciate it. Yeah, Also just saw what you saw.
all right.
Doug,
you fresh.
All right,
real quick at,
gatekeepers looking real good right there.
That G K PRF.
I like that money.
Mark looking nice and I'll keep an eye on ample AMPL.
It's just pulling back a little bit.
I'll jump into that when it gets down there and I'll just go through a few real quick that I'd gone over before because open doors looking pretty
good again, guys. Remember I was saying last week, don't chase it as it was pulling back.
Now you're starting to get a reversal. It looks like it's trying to curl up. It's pulling up and
hitting the trend line right there, exactly where it's at about 219. So just keep your eye. It does
look like it's trying to set back up and dnn that denson
mines is uh just a little bit of pullback it's way up from when we first mentioned it but it's uh
hitting that trend line another one and it's just kind of pulled back on the macd it looks like it's
trying to set up again maybe a week or two so keep your eye on that one for any pullback upxi is that
solano one and that thing is is taking its time to set up.
It's just sitting right there on the 20.
A lot of these crypto treasury ones are blasting off like that BMNR.
They have the Ethereum one that's getting cruising, and SBET is setting up and starting to move.
So check out the crypto treasury guys.
They're pretty good.
And PEW, we mentioned grab a gun before and it had run up and pulled back a little bit.
And now that looks like it bottomed out and wants to get rolling.
It went right into the basement ever so slightly.
And it looks like it's trying to crawl back up there.
So that is PEW and that Trump Jr. is on the board of that one.
And there you go. That's what i have for you guys so thank you very much and pass it on over to you ben and m
yeah did ariel sign off i guess okay so m
well i don't have anything to add uh You guys absolutely crushed it per usual on this show. If anybody's got any last thoughts, I would love to take a moment here and get those in.
what we're probably just the whole market's waiting for at this point other than obviously
big picture nvidia earnings later you know a few few weeks out but it seems like the next catalyst
is going to be whatever this data comes in the next couple days i mean it's important and you
know i think as godfather said earlier if we get in line i think we're going to be good um obviously
if we get light we're going to be good I think the question is
if it comes in hot by like
0.1%
is that too hot
or is that going to be like
okay it's a little hot but we got the bad job data
so we can survive this
that's where I'm not sure
and obviously if you're hot by 0.2% or more
I think that could spark
a bad day tomorrow into PPI.
But yeah, I really don't know the answer about 0.1% hot, what that's going to do with the market.
So yeah, a lot of people are looking at that.
I think a lot of people are taking, a lot of traders taking some risk off the table today
to see how that comes in tomorrow.
I'll just close out with a couple of thoughts
on Ethereum here. So if you're not familiar with what the bull case here is, essentially,
you know, you've got a yielding asset, you can stake it. So it's like 3% plus. It's deflationary,
not, you know, fixed stores, fixed supply like Bitcoin, but it's deflationary, settles in 12
seconds, fully programmable,
24-7, no counterparty risk. These are all the things that we know, but 60% plus of all stable
coins in circulation are built on Ethereum rails. And people are talking about not just the growth
in stable coins, which by the way, Scott Besson has said, you know, by 2028, you know, having true $2 trillion is very, very reasonable for the market cap of dollar backed stable coins.
People are also looking at the real world assets and the tokenization there, which is
around 13 billion. And by the way, over 80% of that's built on Ethereum. So if you look
actually at the R squared between the market cap of Ethereum and the value of the assets that are secured on the Ethereum network, you look at this relationship over the last five years, you can see that the market cap grows by about a dollar for every two dollarscoin circulation, which, by the way, has gone from $5 billion in 2020 to $250 billion today, going to $2 trillion, if you believe Scott Besson, in 2028.
And then you've got real-world assets, which are like $13 billion that are tokenized on blockchains, going to something like $16 trillion in 2028. So, you know, take those estimates for what they're worth.
But needless to say, the trajectory is going a certain direction.
And then, of course, you've got all the other things that are going on, right?
Hood launching tokenized stocks on Ethereum, BlackRock filing for an Ethereum staking ETF.
You've got, you know, Bank of America and other banks endorsing Ethereum as a global
stablecoin settlement rail, you know, all of these kinds of things.
So that's what's perpetuating the Ethereum bullishness.
And of course, that's manifested into these Ethereum treasury stocks.
Godfather, we've been having a lot of success trading these Ethereum names, other be BTBT
or BMNR, SBET.
If someone wants to take a long term position in this, what do you recommend the best way
to do that is?
I don't recommend taking a long term position in any of these Ethereum treasury companies.
How about like ETH itself or Galaxy, GLXOI?
Yeah, look, you can have a chicken play, as I call them, something like a Galaxy where
you're getting exposure to the whole group and you're getting exposure to the data center,
getting exposure to all sorts of altcoins, Bitcoin, Ethereum, you name it, the whole
ecosystem and environment.
That's less risky, certainly. And there are other names. I think for purposes of the
ETH treasury trading names, they should be exactly that trading names because
this doesn't work if you're not trading at a premium to the underlying ETH
value. And we've already seen that go from a huge premium to a discount for certain of these names.
And so only the ones that can maintain that premium that will continue to see their market
values rewarded. And the market can change overnight in terms of their
willingness to afford a premium to these treasury holdings.
So, yeah, take them for what they are.
They're trading vehicles.
I love it. I love it when you're just trading.
You got many skills there. Long-term trading is beautiful. All right, Em, back to you.
All right. Well, I mean, Tom Lee's bullish Ethereum, so I feel like maybe I should just stay on board with that.
Either way, great show. Definitely check out all these guys up here. Make sure you give them a follow. We appreciate their time.
Check out all these guys up here.
Make sure you give them a follow.
We appreciate their time.
Quick reminder, next week, slight change in schedule.
We'll be live on Tuesday at 1 p.m. Eastern.
We have our Tesla Tuesday show at noon.
We will do the small cap show right off the back of that.
And then we do have that special guest interview.
So definitely mark your calendars for that next week.
If you're looking for us on Monday, it will be over on Tuesday. And with that, we'll go ahead and close this out. As always, this is recorded.
We appreciate everyone that tunes into this. If you missed any piece of it, definitely go back,
check out the recording or bookmark it. Go back tonight, maybe listen to some of the great,
great thoughts shared by the whole crew. I appreciate the crew. Big shout out to everyone.
And like I said, we'll be back next Tuesday. I'm headed over to the live trading for about 30, 40 minutes. And then of
course we'll have stocks on spaces at power hour. And then tonight, of course, our stock picks for
the week show is still live. Boy, we've got some interesting, interesting picks over there on that
one too, that you'll definitely want to tune in for. We're absolutely crushing the market.
So there's,
we have two people with like a 17,
we have a 17% winner and a 36% winner right now.
And we have two other very large winners in here.
So definitely tune in for that tonight.
We'll see what everyone's thoughts are over there on that show as well.
And with that,
I'm signing off.
Take care,
everyone. Thank you.
