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SMALL CAP INVESTING
Recorded: April 17, 2025 Duration: 1:20:42Space Recording
Short Summary
In a dynamic market landscape, discussions highlighted significant growth opportunities in small-cap stocks, with traders emphasizing the importance of thematic investments and quick capital gains. Key insights included the potential for companies like Berna and Verve Therapeutics to capitalize on emerging trends, while caution was advised due to macroeconomic uncertainties.
Full Transcription
Thank you. Hello, hello, testing one, two, three.
Testing one, two, Testing123. Testing123, good afternoon.
Happy Thursday, April the 17th.
It's time for our small cap show.
We had to move it around a little bit this week,
but we definitely wanted to keep the consistency going
and still talk small caps.
I mean, there's a lot to talk about.
I know, I'll tell you this before we
jump into this, some of the names that have been given out on the space have been absolutely
amazing. I've actually taken some of the trades here. So big shout out to this crew. And if you're
in the audience, you're joining in, definitely put some of these names on your watch list. Listen
to the deep dives made, the cases made by this crew up here. And boy, there's been some real
winners out here. That's all I'll
say. I'm thankful for this crew. Put me on to some really good names out there. So shout out
to all these guys. As always, we'll kick the conversation off a little bit here with some
market sentiment, see what everyone's thinking. And then we'll get a little bit more thematic
and granular on the back half of the show. But with that said, welcome in, everyone.
Small Cap Investing, Ben, my co-host from Story Trading.
If you want to go ahead and kick us off, that would be fantastic.
Hope you're doing well, sir.
All right.
I might talk a little bit less today because I've got a bad sore throat, but I'll try to battle through it.
it um so look from a macro sentiment point of view um i have to be honest with you this is the
now look it may be a function of my uh personal performance um you know i'm up about 110 percent
my trading account this year back near my highs and i took a i took a nice little drawdown when the market collapsed and then made it all back recently.
So I'm operating under 85% cash now.
So again, I don't know if this is a little bias here because I want to preserve my profits or I'm truly concerned about the macro.
But I've been talking about the 200-week moving average
on all the major indices for a long time. Let's just look at SPY, for example. 200-week moving
average on SPY is down here at 460. And I look at that as a long-term bull line, bull market,
a long-term bull market, right? So, you know, I don't follow that,
you know, conventional wisdom that 20% is a bear market. You know, if you've gone up a ton,
then, you know, imagine if you've gone up like 100% in three weeks, all right? Now you're down
30% on week four. Is that a bear market suddenly? No, it's actually just a correction. You know,
if you look at the 200 week moving average, going back, like, man, we're like, I think it's like a
15 year, it's like a 15 year bull market. And even the COVID crash kind of held that line.
It went below it for a couple weeks, but it generally, it held it. And then we had that
bear market in 2022, it held it perfectly And then we had that bear market in 2022,
it held it perfectly at the 200 week moving average. So to me, that's the long-term bull
market. So what I'm getting at is even if things are great, even if we're still in long-term bull,
even if, you know, whatever Trump does works out with tariffs and the second half of the year,
things go up, we can still test that line and it's not the end of the world, right?
things go up, we can still test that line and it's not the end of the world, right?
You know, I'm trying to say in a roundabout way that it's almost like it needs to test it, right?
So, you know, and I think we can maybe get there through maybe, who knows, maybe in the next few
weeks as we get through all these earnings, if the guidances aren't good or if there's no guidance,
maybe we get to those levels.
So I'm pretty hesitant right now, man.
I'm being very, very selective on our picks.
We've done a great job in our community with the Godfather and our Discord,
and we've had a few home runs recently.
One of them, you know about Berna.
We played the Berna earnings and it worked out great.
And that's one of the big reasons I got back to near my highs here on the year, BYRN.
But anyway, those are my thoughts.
My thoughts are basically I'm preserving my profits.
I'm being really careful, really selective, operating under a very high cash level.
You know, the other thing I'm doing as well is I'm paying myself. You know, I had also a great second half of the year last year and I didn't pay myself.
You know, I was up huge, like thousands of percent in 2024. I didn't pay myself. Then I had like a
20 percent drawdown or something. I was kicking myself. So I started a new policy over the past month where I pay
myself a daily dividend, even if I'm not up for the day. And when I'm up for the day, I take 50%
of the profits and I pay myself. And I kind of have to do that. This is actually a business,
my trading's in a business account for a defunct dating site that I own that's on the verge of
bankruptcy. The dating site owes over a million dollars in debt and that I own that's like on the verge of bankruptcy.
Like the dating site owes like over a million dollars in debt and credit cards.
It's crazy.
So like I'm paying myself very aggressively,
paying off for debts.
So I learned that lesson.
So that's the mode I'm in,
is very selective, you know, in and out,
make profits, pay yourself.
And yeah, just very selective because i think we could test that
200 week moving average so that's my macro thoughts then you've mentioned um i caught
pieces of your stream the other day you mentioned a couple of these long-term trend lines
are we still holding those and is that keeping you somewhat i guess i don't know if i want to
use the term bullish,
but I mean, because you've talked to you just from based on what you just said, obviously,
but at the same time, is that keeping you maybe from pressing any short side stuff or,
or maybe keeping you in the market a little bit more?
Well, that long-term trend line is another like 13% down from here, which, you know,
if it happens- The third one down?
What's that?
Is that, you mentioned like two or three of them.
Is that like the third one, the main one down?
No, no, the big one.
The big one I'm looking at is that 200 moving area.
That's the only one I really care about.
Okay.
So that's another 13% down on SPY.
I'm not sure I didn't calculate on QQQ this morning.
But that would be pretty bad when it comes to risk assets.
If the market goes down another 13%, your favorite risk assets can be down 20%, 30%, 40%.
So, yeah, I'm being cautious right now.
Awesome.
I appreciate you kicking us off there, Ben.
I'm going to keep it moving around here.
Mr. Money Mark, what thoughts do you have around this wild, crazy market right now?
Well, I gave you all the strong signal about the yellow alert several weeks ago before we had the crash.
That remains in place firmly.
This is easy, right?
I'm going to tell you guys the same thing every week, which is we've got a mid-year refinancing event.
It's a global refinancing
event, and that is a headwind for liquidity. And liquidity is easily one of the top three
market movers and, in my estimation, the most underrated by people. So keep that in mind.
That mid-year refinancing is a major headwind that
needs to be addressed. And then the other thing, also very simple for you to monitor on a week
basis, is Trump basically has four pillars. He wants manufacturing in the US, whether you like
him or not, this is what he wants. Manufacturing in the US, he wants to cut the debt, he wants. Manufacturing in the U.S., he wants to cut the debt, he wants to refinance the debt at a
low rate, and he wants a strong dollar. Well, how do you do that? Tariffs, get manufacturing back to
the U.S. Okay, so you got tariffs. Doge, to cut the debt, cut expenses. Interest rates, you want
interest rates low to refinance the debt, and of course, that strong dollar. Well, as you might have seen a couple
weeks ago, bond yields started ripping forward, right? A lot of people blamed international
investors for this, selling off US bonds, forcing the 10-year yield up at a very aggressive rate,
which is contrary to what Trump wants, right? Now, since early January, the bond yields had dropped.
The 10-year yield had dropped from 475 plus to 4 flat.
So there was nice progress on the interest rates, but then it spiked in a couple of days
to 450, almost undoing everything.
So he was forced to actually take a step back on the tariffs.
If you think about those four pillars, they all have importance.
So when you see one of those pillars starting to ruin the other ones, he's going to, you
can predict what he's going to do.
If Bonneau start ripping to the moon, he's going to back off on tariffs if that's the
reason that is causing that pillar to get messed up.
That's your game plan for following this.
The other game plan, following this the other game
plan keep an eye on the short-term charts if you look at the short-term channels that the stock
market has been running through we are currently in a bounce phase right we got we reached the
lower end of that channel um let's see what was that on april 9th and since then we've been
bouncing within that channel but rest assured
like i said at the beginning of this this is not over we have ceos cfos this has been my experience
going back 30 years as an analyst for wall street companies right you speak to ceos and cfos what
you find is they don't know what's coming next, so they're just going to pause. Stop hiring. Stop investing.
Stop CapEx. You're already hearing it in the earnings reports, and that causes the economy
to slow down, and we're already starting to see that in the data, more so in the soft data,
the sentiment data, but across the board now, even the more bullish macro analysts that I
subscribe to are saying they are now concerned and believe
that the hard data is going to follow the soft data. So continue to be cautious. I'll be back
with how my portfolio is situated. I'm not up as much as Ben is, but I actually have a more
measured approach to how I do things. So I actually wasn't even, I didn't even have a drawdown. I ended the year at an all-time high and I'm currently pretty close to
an all-time high, but at a measured pace. So, you know, different strokes for different folks,
no matter how you do it, as long as you're successful, you know, that's what we're off
And that's what we're off to do.
to do. So I'll tell you more about how my portfolio is constructed when we come back.
So I'll tell you more about how my portfolio is constructed when we come back.
Beautiful.
I'm excited to hear that.
And I love that.
A lot of different approaches, right?
And it's the results that matter at the end of the day, right?
Everyone has their own approach.
Everyone has their own goals and expectations as well.
So beautifully said there by MoneyMark.
Ariel, let's go over to you and see what thoughts you have around the market right now and how
you're approaching things.
Yeah, my pleasure, guys.
And yeah, thank you for your time here.
And I'm always happy to be on these shows here with you.
I'm looking at thematic opportunities.
And what I've learned about this market is that it could be very difficult, obviously,
if you really like something and enjoy it.
And you're like, but wait a second, every reason I had in the world to own the stock,
some of my friends, even some of my mentors come back to me and say to me,
like, Ariel, we did everything right. Why is the stock not working?
And then I say to everybody else, I'm like, look, you have to have a time horizon to your investments.
You have to have patience. And then when markets are this volatile, you again, could see yourself lose 30,
40% for no reason whatsoever, just because there are more sellers and buyers, right? So what I like
to do now, it's like I'm looking at each of these industries, and I like to look at the themes that
are in vogue today, like the rare earth play here, an example of,
right? And then in this instance, because we're talking about micro and small caps,
really small caps, it does make sense for you to be able to take a trading approach, right?
And a fundamental approach towards the idea of a thematic approach. And when you combine
towards the idea of a thematic approach.
And when you combine three or two of the three,
it allows you to make some decisions
that could make you some quick capital.
And I do like to look at it that way too,
even though that's not what I tend to wanna preach
all the time, but I'd love, like I said before,
making 5% in a day is a wonderful day, right?
So that's the thing I'm looking at,
like the rare earth thematic move.
Sometimes I look at solar, I still see a lot of the same names that are being mentioned.
But there's a reason for it.
And you follow the name well enough, you'll be able to catch quite the ride.
And there are a couple of these stocks that I've been seeing in the last week or so that
is very interesting to me to see how quick they could move just in a flash.
But they're real stories.
It's not like it's out of the ordinary.
You know, it's like you know about what's going on with China.
You know about, you know, what just recently occurred.
And then if you could be if you get ahead of it.
Right. And if you're dialed in, you could make a lot of money in this market.
And this is the type of market that's very specific to themes.
And you have to read the news, read your Wall Street Journal, read everything every morning and night.
And I'm telling you, if you approach it correctly, this is where we could have a little edge.
And that's what I'm looking for these days.
Yeah, if I can just jump in there.
That's actually the exact approach we use at story trading pretty much in all markets.
You know, looking for thematics, looking for an intersection between catalysts, sentiment, fundamentals and technicals.
So you have like a perfect storm and you have your wind at the back everywhere.
But man, it is a tough environment right now.
We're talking about the headlines because they're changing so fast.
And, you know, I got to say, I've been a little bit overwhelmed the last two months trying to keep up with the headlines.
It's been very, very hard.
And it definitely helps when you have a team of people doing that in the Discord.
But even with that, it's been very challenging just keeping up with everything.
Amp, you there? Or should we go around? I i'm here yeah i was just making sure nobody else wanted to jump in and add a comment there but we will keep it going um let's go over to the
godfather next and then we'll hit dougie fresh after that on market cinema yeah thanks um
ben's comments sort of remind me of uh this quote by Lenin who said that, and I say Lenin, Vladimir Lenin,
said there's decades when nothing happens and then there's weeks when decades happens.
And it certainly feels that way since Trump has forged ahead on this tariff policy.
So look, this is an absolutely impossible environment, right?
You've got a bun fight going on between the leaders of the two largest economies in the world.
You've got, you know, what's being proposed as a wholesale change to where government revenues come from.
And, you know, the second derivative effects in terms of global trade and supply chains and so on are immense.
And, you know, as is true out of all of these things, when you make large decisions like this,
there's no way you can think through all of the second derivative effects.
And, you know, at this point, we don't know, you know, how much of this is real,
like how much does you really expect will stick at the end of the day?
And, you know, how much of this is post will stick at the end of the day, and how much of
this is posturing for other agendas. I will say this, though, if he thinks that anything close
to what's currently proposed is going to stick, then you should not have any money in this market
whatsoever, because the consumer was already on edge. This is a massively stagflationary policy.
You know, like you can't, as a manager of a company, make a decision. You can't give
earnings guidance. You know, margins are going to get hit. Growth is going to be curtailed back.
Like there's just no two ways about it.
It's going to be immensely disruptive for this market.
So, you know, earnings that this year are still bandied around at around 260 on the S&P are at risk.
And, you know, you can look at the market and go, OK, well, the sentiment indicators are all washed out and
we could bounce, you know, yeah, of course we could bounce. We could bounce on any kind of
good news here, but, you know, anything that, you know, amounts to a spike higher is going to get
faded until there's, you know, ultimate clarity to what these tariff impacts are going to be and
what the long-term landscape looks like. And, you know, that's just reality.
And don't expect anything great out of this earnings season. In fact, expect the opposite, because, you know, companies always have skeletons in the closet. They're going to
trot all those out under the guise of tariffs, because they've got cover to do it now.
now. The other thing is nobody's going to stick their necks out here.
The other thing is, nobody's going to stick their necks out here.
So can you hear me? Sorry, I just got a call. Yeah, very good. Okay, good. So look, you can
make the case that the market should rally here because of sentiment being an extreme fear and
VIX being where it is and all the rest of it.
But at the same time, you know, historically speaking, the market's still not cheap.
And, you know, the denominator to this equation is at risk of going lower.
You know, the path of least resistance is lower in terms of earnings.
And when companies don't give guidance and liquidity dries up in markets, multiples also shrink. So it's a double
whammy. So, you know, I don't think I can get convicted to buying and, you know, adding materially
to new positions or even, you know, long-term holds until I see a market that, you know, reflects
that. And I think that those kinds of levels come into play with a four
handle on the S&P. You can easily use last year's S&P earnings estimate of 243 and put a 20 times
multiple on it, which some will argue is rich, and you're at 4,800. You put 19 times on it,
you get this 4,600 level pretty easily. In any event, I think that that's, you know, where things might fundamentally
start to start to get interesting. In the meantime, you know, there's times when the
market tells you to do less. And this is clearly one of them. You should be if you're playing even
tactical things in this market at, you know, at a fraction of regular size. Cash is the best hedge.
you know, at a fraction of regular size. Cash is the best hedge. It's a whipsaw market.
We all know that. So, you know, I'm going to come back and talk about a couple of interesting
small cap ideas. But look, you know, returns are a function of not just having great ideas,
but, you know, you have to have a favorable market backdrop that will reward you,
you know, for putting that money at
risk. And we just don't have that right now. So I don't see any, you know, compelling reason to rush
into, you know, new ads. And if you think that there's some near-term catalysts and so on
that you can take advantage of that will be, you know, that will manifest themselves irrespective of what happens on the macro market, then great. But do it at a
small size because the wind is clearly in your face here, not at your back as an equity investor.
So yeah, markets are a confidence game. There really isn't a lot of confidence in this market.
I see Trump trying to sable rattle the market
higher saying, hey, we're going to cut a good deal with China and we're getting close on Europe. And
at the same time, you've got Europe saying, you know, any China trade deal is going to have to
come with export restrictions. And you've got China saying any kind of negotiation is going
to have to include Taiwan. And, you know, so it's clear that these parties are a long ways apart.
And, you know, again, there's no reason to enter the meat grinder.
There really isn't.
And Godfather, we still have to refinance the debt, right?
Like you're a you're a watcher of liquidity as well.
Yeah. Yeah, absolutely.
And, you know, look, the Fed there, the Fed really isn't a boxer.
You're hearing them say it.
Like, you know, they're scared to cut rates.
What happened when they cut rates last time?
Well, the long end went up.
You know, that doesn't help anybody when their mortgage rates are, you know, pegged to 10-year.
So, you know, inflation is the near-term concern. The Fed's tools work a lot better to stimulate growth through rate cuts.
work a lot better to stimulate growth through rate cuts. They can wait to do that.
They can wait to do that.
You know, they don't have a lot of ammunition against inflation, especially, you know,
stagflation, which is their worst nightmare. So they're going to lean towards trying to do less
and, you know, waiting as far and as long as possible into the future to use their tools
to stimulate growth, irrespective of, you know, what Trump would like to see. And, you know,
as you pointed out, Moneymark, you know, we learned once again that, you know, at the end of
the day, the bond market is the undisputed champion. And, you know, whether it's sovereigns or whether it's
vigilantes or what have you, it trumps everything, including Trump's policies. And, you know,
I've said this time and time again, this whole tariff plan relies on two things. It relies on
the strength of the U.S. consumer. And as it's proposed right now, you can't leverage the strength of the
U.S. consumer when the U.S. goes into recession. It just doesn't work. And the other thing it relies
on is it relies on U.S. dollars in the hands of trade partners to finance our debt. And, you know,
that's not going to happen either. So, you know, absolutely the trade policy has to come in, you know, from where the
guideposts or the goalposts are in Trump's goalposts are right now. It has to. Otherwise,
you know, it's going to cause global chaos. And, you know, we're already seeing that. So
I'm scared about the egos that are involved here. I hope that cooler heads prevail.
You know, ultimately, I think the bond market will force that.
But what it means is that the Fed put is a lot lower and the Trump put is a lot lower.
And, you know, that's a risky environment for equity investors.
There's just no two ways about it.
So sorry to be so negative, but that's just how I see reality right now.
It is tough to spin it either other direction right now. Go ahead, Ben.
Yeah, if I may say, a lot of gloom and doom there, but I think you're being way too modest
because you have been finding the alpha in our Discord community even throughout all of this
last several days, you know, absolutely killed it while I was away
on Webull and on the rare earths that you were killing that, you know, Berna, absolutely beautiful.
We both nailed that one. You know, we talked about Webull and then last couple of days here on
Hertz. So there's still plenty of alpha to be found if you're an active trader and you're part
of part of a community.
You know, only thing is smaller size.
I totally agree with that.
Smaller size, higher cash positions.
But pretty much, you know, when you have a process like we do and we're looking at the catalyst and looking at the sentiment, the fundamentals and technicals, pretty much in every market condition, if you have a short-term perspective,
sometimes it's hours. But hours to days, there's still a lot of output to be found.
And I think a lot of what you're saying there, the godfather, definitely applies more so for
people who are really passive, long-term investors, long-term accounts, stuff like that.
If you're an active trader, there's still amazing opportunities,
even in this market, I have to say.
Yeah, look, I'm a fundamental guy.
I'm a CFA.
I used to be an analyst.
I'm happy when I can just spend my time looking at companies
and trying to find differentials that can be exploited
in terms of fundamental valuation.
That's my core.
But if you could see my screens right now,
you know, I've got things like TLT on there.
I've got the US dollar on there.
I've got gold on there.
I've got volatility on there.
I'm looking at all these macro things
because that's what's driving things right now.
You know, sentiment trumps fundamentals,
certainly in environments like this.
So, yes, you know, nobody wants to hear about some company being fundamentally cheap versus the other.
It doesn't matter.
So, yes, we've been spending our time on tactical things.
Like Gary said, you know, we're taking advantage of, you know, these themes and like rare earths.
And, you know, there's a structural arbitrage trade that exists in a couple of pockets of the market.
And we're trying to exploit that. But, you know, again, these are extremely short term.
And, you know, it only works for folks that are, you know, fingers on the trigger and watching things tick by tick and blow by blow.
tick and blow by blow. So if you're that kind of person, great, you know, come into our discord.
So if you're that kind of person, great. You know, come into our discord.
There's a bunch of guys doing that. But you'll find the channels on on fundamental research,
you know, crickets at the moment, and for a reason. And on that note, by the way,
just a quick alert, Avis budget ticker symbol C A R just got close to the target of the day.
I had an $86 target for the day.
I just sold my shares at $85, up 16% of the day.
It was a sympathy play with Hertz.
Those are the type of plays we have.
I just sold it right now at $85 for those who are following me.
Well done, Ben.
One thing I'll just to accentuate what you guys have said,
just so everybody knows what the focus on.
One thing that was really important that the Godfather said is about EPS and
One thing to know is if we do go into a recession and you know,
the odds are increasing by the day, if we go into a recession,
a typical recession, which most people haven't seen, we had COVID.
That was just a quick little blip,
right? It's been a long time since we had one. EPS and recession typically drops 13 to 26%. So if we have an EPS drop on that 243 number Godfather gave us in 2025, that's 211. And if
you apply a 15 PE to that 211, you get to 3,200 on the S&P.
Now that sounds crazy, right? But my long-term chart of the S&P going back to 1960, 3,200 only gets you halfway down
the chart.
It only gets you down to the same trend line we were in during COVID.
It's not that kind of traumatic 2008 event which I don't expect right 3200 is
not a stretch so be careful and then on what Ben said 70% cash yes sir I'm over
50% in cash I bet there's a lot of people out there right now that would
love to get 4% for free as opposed to being down 20 30 or 30% year-to-date. Sorry, you said 3,200. Is that on SPY?
That would be on the S&P.
The S&P 500.
Yeah, that's too – so that's –
Dude, that would be a similar drawdown to 2008.
Look at the chart. Just look at the chart.
No, no, no, it would not.
It might be a similar drawdown,
but it wouldn't take you down
to that level of the long-term chart because we were at all-time highs, right? So my yellow alert
was triggered by valuation being as high as it's been. I think I can only count on one hand how
many times valuation had been that high. So it didn't take but a feather to
make this market crash down, much less all of the policies Trump's trying to put in place.
But yeah, at the low end, recessions draw down EPS 13 to 26%. People talk about flat EPS or EPS
being a 5%. No, down 13 to 26%. And at the low end of that, that's
211. At the high end
of that, you're talking about another 32
points off of that. You're talking about 180.
Give that any PE you
want. You want to give a 20 PE to that 180?
That's still 3600.
Be careful. 70% cash
bend? Yes.
All right.
M, we haven't heard from Dougie.
Yeah, would love to.
Great thoughts shared, by the way.
And it has been very interesting just to throw in one thing.
You know, Powell basically yesterday said, I'm not bailing out.
You know, I'm not bailing you out.
That's basically what he said yesterday.
And we did see the bond market scare.
You wonder how much influence that had the other day. So yeah, it's very interesting.
Some really great points being made so far. Dougie Fresh would love to get your thoughts in the mix and then we'll get a little bit more granular. Yeah, no, I'm enjoying the talk between
everybody. It's definitely great points right there. Everybody's pointing out and not the way
I see it right here. I was actually surprised that the spy was up today. It's still up and the market like the mag sevens mostly down except for Apple. I mean, you're
talking about the craziest market conditions you could ever imagine. The charts are just reading
like they want to go both ways, which is always kind of crazy. And a lot of the sectors are setting
up the same way, which always tells you something's going on. So I keep saying, I have a
feeling he's going to have like one of these crazy, like Easter Sunday morning tweets to try to pump
up the market. Yesterday when Powell spoke, it put the market really into a bearish trend right
there. You could see it happen and it must've made them shit their pants today because it definitely
went more bearish than it was. It wasn't looking great before,
but it went bearish and you could easily keep dipping down. So they're going to have to be careful. And clearly they don't want to touch into that recession area because it's going to
be hard to get out like you guys were saying. And you have EPSs and everything dropping down
dramatically. It's hard to bow yourself out of that. And obviously they have an agenda where
they have the midterms coming up in about
a year and a half. So they need this market to roll and they need the rates to come down.
Like you guys were saying, they need to refinance a ton of money. So just the crazy situation going
on and you have a tariff war going on and he's just using the tariffs to control the market at
the moment and try to put pressure on the Fed. And clearly the Fed pal wasn't buckling yesterday. And then he put more pressure on today and kind of pulled back
a little bit. And yeah, it's just all over the place. And at any minute, you can just have a
tweet come out or some news and the market just go one way or the other. So like you guys were
saying, I keep selling everybody. Keep a lot of cash on hand um play these quick pops there's a lot of
great opportunities if you're a trader um not so much long-term opportunities because you just have
no idea exactly where that bottom's going to be but if you play it daily you can get a good idea
of what the spy is going to be doing the i the iwm that's a pretty easy one that you see and then you
have a lot of the uh small caps and other
ones like you guys said Hertz and things like that like Avish just popping off of uh off of it
that was a great call right there Ben good job and uh yeah no you gotta you do have some opportunities
in poppers so don't think that there's not any it's just not really a long-term market right now
nor do you even want to be in anything long-term because you have no idea where the bottoms are.
So you just have to really trade smart.
I think that's where you're going to—this might be the greatest market opportunity right now to really polish your trading skills.
And don't do it big on a big scale, obviously.
Do it real small but yeah you can trade and learn how to actually trade because
that's what's going to separate you from keeping your gains and giving them back real fast so
you're gonna have to lock in your profits and really just focus on the next one one at a time
and just stay focused so that's what i see right now and yeah you have no idea what the market's
going to do it looks like it wants to run up for some crazy reason.
And at the same time, it doesn't look like it's going to get through the 20s at all.
It's the craziest chart look you could ever see. So it's almost like I could flip a coin right now
and we could do it each morning because, yeah, I thought a spy would be way down today. And like
I said, it's up 314 right now and trying to fight its way up, but doesn't even look good.
So I don't know what to make of it, but you just have to be extremely careful and cautious and just trade smart.
And yeah, just go sector to sector.
And like you guys were saying, like your discord is great.
I have to say you guys have an amazing discord.
And so, yeah, if anybody's listening, wants to to check that out go ahead because they are great
in that discord and you do you have to follow these communities that really know what they're
talking about on my show uh we had a listener phil he gave us arec like a week ago he's like yo
this thing's and i i had no idea we looked at it coking coal is the actual uh is the industry it
says on finbiz i'm like what is coking coal and there's like five of them each
one of them looks beautiful they were just running like crazy so you do you find the sector that's
running like that a rec which was like one of them rare earth ones it was american resources corp
and um yeah it's just kind of crazy the way they do and yeah a amrR, it's AMR, A-R-E-C, H-C-C, M-E-T-C. Maybe I'll go through
them real quick on the thing. That's what I'll do. And yeah, I'm telling each one of them looks
amazing. So there's five of them in that sector and each one's amazing right there. So I'll run
through them real quick and tell you about them. But yeah, that's what you have to do. And honestly,
I didn't even see these things some of
the scanners aren't even picking up these poppers i honestly think some of the listeners and people
that follow these different sectors and different ones they're just uh you know seeing these things
get lined up and uh and when they let you know you can see the chart and you're like that's good
let's look into it and then all of a sudden you kind of find a couple other ones but yeah pay
attention to people that are posting ones and really just look at them charts and they're
they're going to be quick runners like this one are you see they're running up to the top they'll
pull back and just get in and get out take your profits and move them into the next sector that's
going to be moving and that's the best experience i can tell you guys uh stuff I want to comment they are you see by the way, I think Godfather is all over that
Yesterday the day before when I was going I don't know
With the nice
Yeah, but I do want to say regarding spy just to give a little context look
And what I like to do is to make sense out of markets.
What I like to do is to make sense out of markets I do this all the time
I do this all the time at an individual stock level and in times of crisis like this, even on the indices.
And a lot of people say that's impossible, but I'll never stop trying because, you know, I do believe that the charts are a reflection of, you know, market psychology and catalysts, a combination of catalysts, sentiment, fundamentals and technicals.
It's all in the chart.
And a lot of this stuff is predictable.
Again, a lot of people will say, Ben, why are you even trying?
But I've been very successful.
It's part of the reason I was able to hold on to a lot of my gains during this drawdown.
In my morning note, I put a morning note out every morning in our Discord,
and I actually predicted that Spy would be up today and maybe Monday.
First of all, you know, a couple of things here. Things don't go down a straight line,
number one. You have this 20-day moving average pushing the indices down, and that's the line
I'm looking at as, you know, where I would want to maybe take some hedge or be, you know,
take some profits more aggressively. But yesterday in the afternoon, we were bearish on
the indices all day because of the NVIDIA news in the morning. But in the afternoon, I took off
all my hedge. We got bullish. I said, we're going to have a green day tomorrow. And that was because
of speculation that there could be a deal last night with, I think it was Japan, which didn't
pan out. That didn't pan out. But then
overnight, we had some positive overshares from China saying they want to do a deal, but the
United States ought to be more respectful. So I look at all this information overnight and in the
early morning, put my note out in the early morning. And on top of that, you have Netflix
earnings, which looks like pretty much there's a universal consensus right now among Wall Street
that this is going to be the most recession-resistant, tariff-resistant stock. It's been
positive all week. Earnings are after the close. So I did also expect some enthusiasm into the
close because of the Netflix earnings. And over this three-day weekend, I also surprise that you
have a little bit of upside risk in terms of positive tariff news.
At least, you know, even if it's not any deals, it's basically, I don't know that you're going to get any.
I mean, all the bad news for now is baked into that.
And on top of that, on top of that, there are no important earnings.
This is also what I do every single day.
Look at all the earnings reports.
There are no key earnings on Monday.
The big tech earnings start on Tuesday. So I surmise that, you know, we could
have a day or two reprieve on the indices today into Monday. Who knows? Possibly a move
all the way to 20 DMA if Trump tries to pump the market over the weekend. And that's where
you want to get out of Dodge because Tesla reports on Tuesday. I'm not sure if it's Tuesday
morning or Tuesday afternoon.
And then the shit can really start hitting the fan as you get into the big cap tech earnings after that.
So I do that.
That's what I do.
You know, some people think it's crazy to do that, but I do it each and every single day.
I try to make sense out of markets.
That's my philosophical belief is that you can make sense out of markets.
And I put that out, that prediction out and that explanation out this morning. So I'm actually not surprised that SPY is green today.
And with that, I think we'll go around the panel again and maybe get a stock or maybe two from
each person. Yeah, absolutely. Let's see. Money Mark, let's go over to you and get a thematic or what are you watching? What's on your radar right now? I know you've talked about several great ones recently. So if anybody wants to hit one that they've recently talked about and then put something new on our radar, we'd love to hear it.
Father doing a great job on the short-term plays.
I've been killing it on the kind of longer-term thematic plays.
You know, and I don't really look thematically per se.
I look for great companies at great prices.
And obviously theme is a part of that, but it's more of a checkbox than something that I seek out.
But the names that I've been really pushing a couple of my top two holdings right now,
Geodrill, G-E-O-D-F, exposed to gold. Gold miners are trying to get as much gold out of the ground
as humanly possible. And Geodrill provides the drills that pull that gold out of the ground.
And what I'm hearing is that the gold miners want more drills
So they want more of geo drill services and to the point where
Geo drill who just bought more drills is seeking more drills
They're basically using their utilization of the drills. They purchased is full right now
full right now. So this is going to be a great Q1. They've announced the call date, I believe,
So this is gonna be a great Q1
and we are going to see a very strong quarter out of Geodrill. Next, TPCS, Tech Precision,
they make parts for the submarines, F-15 EXs, CH-53Ks. They've been in a turnaround mode in
terms of their operations, even though all of those programs, you saw Trump come out this week with a request for a 12% increase in defense spending.
So it's a major theme we talked about earlier, where this was not going to be a casualty of Doge, but rather where money would get more allocated into the defense
sector so you got gold with geodrill you can also play with um i loved um gdxj the etf for the um
junior miners that's a great play by the way if you love gold you gotta love the junior miners
because their revenue comes from gold their expenses are basically the fuel that runs those
drills and oil prices have been dropping that means big things for the junior miners and i
don't think that uh that etf is finished going up so i do not own gold right now. I would rather own the junior miners ETF than gold right now, because if gold keeps going up, then GDFJ is going to go absolutely rocket ship. That's up in Australia. That's D-R-S-H-F.
I picked that stock.
So since the day that the S&P peaked, drone shield is up about 40%. And the reason is partly, obviously, because drone shields are important.
We want defense against drones out there.
That's a big theme that's going on.
But also recently, this week, they won a $32 million deal.
Now, to put that in perspective, their estimate for the entire year is only $95 million.
And they already had $ 50 million booked before this so they have
82 million dollars booked year to date it's only April and their estimates are
only 95 million and oh by the way their best quarter is usually Q4 I think these
guys are not gonna do 95 million I think these guys are not going to do a hundred million. I think they're going to do at least 150 million. Awesome. Good stuff there. Money more. I can have
my old friend, Rob, Rob mock has been telling me about that for quarters. And, uh, yeah, I,
I didn't go, I didn't get into it just cause it was not very liquid and whatnot, but Hey,
we, we, we actually, but hey, good job.
We actually coordinated on that.
It's actually a little more liquid than you would think. If you smack that ask, you'll actually get shares.
So I was actually able to build a pretty sizable position even though it seems – yeah, and I buy some shares in Australia as well directly.
The cool thing about it is that it trades overnight.
And so you could actually look at how it traded in Australia.
And there are times where the stock is up 15% in Australia and only opens up 9% here.
And then you can play kind of the gap there and the gap usually closes.
Yeah, I actually think the thing that kept me away was I noticed there would be like positive news out here in the states on drones. There was
a period of time when all the drone stocks were pumping and then this would, you know, and it
would actually move a little bit here in the states during the day. And then Australia would
go back and it would do nothing. It went back to where it was. It was like for this really odd
period of time where it was doing nothing and it seemed like Australia was controlling the market and the
drone team here had no impact on it. I think that's actually why I avoided it. I don't know
what the hell's up, but it's just not moving. But yeah, good job sticking with it.
I noticed that too. It does seem to be that the Australian trading is the dog that wags the tail.
But hey, so be it. It was a really hot stock when the drones were going up, and now it's actually trading on its own merits.
We're actually seeing some of the drone stocks that were hot that haven't been able to follow through with deals,
but we're seeing this one follow through with the deals already booking $82 million of business on a $95 million full-year estimate.
of business on a $95 million full year estimate.
Okay, let's move around a little bit.
Emp is a little preoccupied, and we've got to keep time here.
I see Spartan's on the board here.
Spartan, do you have a chance to speak?
Yeah, sure.
I've got a couple things here.
And, you know, going with what Money Mark said, he was talking about the junior miners.
And going with what Money Mark said, he was talking about the junior miners.
Can you guys hear me?
I was just getting a call.
Yeah, you cut out for a sec.
Yeah, sorry about that.
So the junior miners need a massive catalyst.
And I've been kind of talking about this in and out on some of the different spaces.
I do like the mining names.
And particularly what I'm looking for.
And, you know, being a Canadian, I'm kind of in tune with what's going on in Canada.
But one of the biggest things that could be a massive catalyst for basically all these mining
names, because a lot of the junior miners, a lot of the mining names are based out of here. That's
what this market is essentially in Canada is a mining market. If we do have a change in leadership,
one of the things that the other side was saying is there's going to be no capital gains for
reinvesting in Canadian companies. A lot of these mining names are dual listed in the States,
and a lot of the investment banks and a lot of these institutions have arms in Canada as well.
So it could be a massive catalyst where you see a lot of liquidity flow
into the Canadian market, especially the mining sector. A lot of these junior miner names,
that would actually spark it to push. It's interesting that you see gold, you know,
at all-time highs, you don't see any money flowing into it. That's not because there's
no value there, that's because there's no liquidity there. If there's no liquidity coming
into those names, they're not going to go up.
And that's just, you know, pretty black and white.
And the market here is a little bit broken in that regard, but this could change it.
And I think there's a massive opportunity in that space.
I do own, you know, I've been accumulating a bunch of them in the last, like, probably
week.
My Canadian portfolio today alone is up 20%.
So, you know So fairly significant. I'm
seeing some spec money flow into the junior miner sector and some of these mining names,
Cobalt. Anything on the rare earth metals is as well something I'm looking at. This
AREC would be one in particular I like around the 121.30 mark.
The MP would be another one to keep an eye on.
I think and then the last one would be USAR as well on the NASDAQ would be another rare earth mining name to keep an eye on.
You know, those are obviously thematic names that could change, you know, fairly quickly if we do get a deal with China. But, you know, I'm a momentum trader and I'm a short-term trader,
especially on the small-cap side.
I find that's the best way to go about trading them because, you know,
most of them are, you know, fairly volatile and they do give up their gains fairly quickly.
But, you know, I find those ones right now, there's an opportunity there,
so I'm kind of sticking with it.
Well, of course, see what happens with that whole China situation.
But other than that, I mean, that's kind of the two main themes I'm looking at on the
small cap side.
You know, I think the mining sector and that opportunity could be tremendous.
We haven't seen a junior miner market, I don't know, since 2011 or 2012.
And if you guys were trading around then, and if you're trading like, you know,
Nugget or JNug, you probably remember that thing going from like $20 to $900 and $800. It was pretty wild. And then of course, all these little individual names were ripping as well. But
you can watch the ETFs to make it a little bit easier for you, JNug Nugget, to see when that
sparks up. I'm keeping an eye on Uranium off the low as well. There's a lot of these little
Uranium names that could have some potential here but uh yeah i'm trying to keep everything
kind of close to the chest i think that's probably the best thematic play in the small cap market in
the next couple weeks here so i'll be watching for that into the canadian election and then uh
yeah i'll kind of just play it by uh what i'm seeing on the momentum side a lot of these small caps i kind of just you know get in out in and out um intraday like for instance
this fatn we've been long since 11 or i guess like 1070. you know it's moving to the upside
quite nicely but you know it's not something i would overnight so that's kind of my two cents
there guys hey spartan what i'll try to do is I'll put a chart up.
You mentioned the junior miners have been up in quite some time.
I'm going to try to put a chart up in the Jumbotron showing you're going to see circles on the chart.
Those are going to denote the last few times in history where you had gold prices going up greatly when oil prices were going down.
And I'll give you the correlation of what's happening now.
Sorry, Ben.
Oh, awesome.
I've been hearing now about ARCE from so many different people, so I'll have to look into that a little more.
By the way, you know, I often take actionable moves while I'm listening to the space.
And, you know, I made a rotation in my retirement account about two weeks ago.
Made a rotation in my retirement account about two weeks ago.
One of the only bad calls I made so far this year was I preferred TLT as a hedge going into this market crash over gold.
And I was completely wrong about that.
About two weeks ago, I capitulated.
And in my retirement account, I moved the entire bond position into GLD and also GDXJ and man
as those really made money really fast that was crazy so just hearing both of
you talk about GDXJ I know it's up but I just decided to bump up my allocation on
GDXJ so I always love to hear these ideas helps me make decisions for myself
so that's awesome you're gonna love this chart man I'm gonna get it up there as
soon as possible. Awesome.
Before I move it over to Godfather next, I want to talk about a couple of stocks.
I'm going to set him up because there might be some overlap.
So first I want to give a quick update on some stocks we talked about in the past year.
Burna, B-Y-R-N.
I'm sure Godfather will touch on it a little bit, but this one was just great.
We played in the earnings report.
It's gone up a lot.
I've kept pretty much my entire long-term position.
No, I maybe sold about 5% or 10% in my long-term account on this move up.
In my short-term account, I had a 21.50 target yesterday, and I have a 22.50 target today.
Man, it hit the target perfectly yesterday.
Today, I don't know.
We'll see.
Maybe we'll get there. It's 2153 by 2164.
But if we get to that 2250, which is both a candle resistance and a 50-day moving average,
I will be exiting my short-term position for good at this point and just holding long-term shares.
So that's an update on Berna.
Kodak is an interesting one because a little disagreement came up between the Godfather and I, but I still like it.
I still own it.
I haven't reduced my long-term position, but I did reduce my short-term position simply because I hate the QQQ and SPY chart right now.
And it's obvious that the indices are pulling on it.
It's going to be impacted by the overall indices.
But maybe if there's – I don't know if there's time today or maybe another time we can have a nice discussion on Kodak and then money
marks been looking into that one as well so those are two small caps I hope you
talk about your awesome bull W call in a second we bull the godfather but the
small cap I want to bring to light here is a pink sheet actually Salem Media S-A-L-M. So this is a brand I've known about
I've heard about pretty ubiquitous brand the conservative media space and was it yesterday
or two days ago I think at this point two days ago Trump Jr. comes in and does a deal with them
gets an equity stake you know the same deal that's done many times with like UMAC and and DOMH and PSQH right every time they come in stock goes
up a couple hundred percent so we saw that news early in pre-market there's a
pink sheet so it only opened at 930 got in at like a dollar sold at a dollar 95
made almost a hundred percent on that day there on April 15th.
But I got back in in a big way on yesterday's red day, not in a big way, big way, it's a pink
sheet, 2.5% allocation, okay, yesterday. But then I was doing research overnight early this morning
because I couldn't sleep. So I spent about an hour with ChatGPT trying to
check on the fundamentals of Salem Media. And I was very happy with what I saw,
completely de-levered. They sold about $90 million worth of assets to pay off their debt.
And that's where you see on the chart, the stock rocketed from 15 cents to about 75 cents at the
end of the year, December 31st. We pretty much held those gains, gave some back
in the market correction from like 75 cents to 42 cents. So it did a fundamental valuation here.
You know, it's not like I just asked Chachupi, what's it worth? You got, it's the critical
process to go back and forth, make sure it's not missing anything, give it more documents,
more links. So I said, went back and forth like an hour on it this morning, and it came to kind of a fair value of $2.50 to $3.50 on Salem Media.
And, you know, so for me, this is not completely – it's not a fundamental play.
I just want to be sure there's enough there so that I can ride the sentiment of this, you know, Trump being involved.
Now, if I'd never heard of this company, if I thought it was a little shit,
I wouldn't be doing this.
But this is a big brand.
It's been around for a long time.
And now with Trump Jr. on board, they could grow,
especially because now their debt's gone.
So I doubled my position on this.
It's now my biggest position in my trade account.
It's a 5% position.
So that's
Salem Media, S-A-L-M. I don't think this play is over. I'm looking for, I have a $2 to $3 target
based both on the technicals and the fundamentals that I've looked into so far. So that's my pick
for you guys, S-A-L-M. And with that, I'll turn it over now to The Godfather Knows.
And with that, I'll turn it over now to the Godfather Knows.
So I wasn't going to talk about either bull or Burna, but just to clarify, my interest in bull is not from a fundamental long, the ticker bull symbol.
Although I have done a bottom-up valuation, a relative comparable valuation to the existing publicly traded peers of Hood, Schwab, and Interactive Brokers.
And I do have a peg valuation for an anchor, but the real interest here is an arbitrage trade that involves the two classes of warrants. It's been
well spelled out in our Discord. I still think there's plenty of opportunity there. So again,
it's in sync with what we're talking about, trying to be tactical and finding individual alpha in a
market where it's typically just not that friendly for long ideas.
Berna, we've talked about at length on this small cap spaces over the various weeks.
They really don't have any exposure to tariffs any longer as they've taken their entire supply
chain domestic.
They have a big product introduction of a compact launcher. So this is non-lethal guns that you can carry for personal protection.
And there's also sales to various government agencies.
A taser-like thing, if you will, that you don't have to deploy in close contact.
So the stock deserves to be trading $7 to $10 higher than where it is now.
We were pounding the table on it when it got down to $14 prior to the earnings.
It's now $21.
It's still undervalued, in my opinion, on a fundamental basis.
But let me go quick on a couple of other names.
And again, I want to go back to my comments during the macro section that these are interesting names.
But I'm not saying that now is the right time to get into them just because of how uncertain this market backdrop is. that I've been doing this that has resulted in the largest gains personally,
have been finding small cap companies that have market-leading technology,
the type of technology that you would find typically in a big cap company.
And often this is, it sits in high-tech companies.
These companies have opportunity to grow exponentially as a result. We had a fabulous call that was both a capital structure call as well as recognizing market leading technology call in a little company called Mind Technologies, M-I-N-D. We see the same kind of thing in a little company called Intermap.
There's a company called ASP Isotopes. I think it's probably been talked about by a number of
folks in various spaces over at least the last year because it's become more topical.
The ticker is A-S-P-I. That's Adam, Sam, Peter, Indigo. But what's really happened here of late is just in
the last month, this has changed from what was essentially a science experiment to vetting the the commerciality of their technology. And it's using lasers to upgrade or enrich various elements.
The primary and largest market before this would be to take nuclear tails, uranium-235,
and using this approach to upgrade it into what's called HALU, which is high-assay, low-enriched uranium.
And this is uranium-235 at sort of 5% to 20% concentration. This is the fuel for small
modular nuclear reactors. Right now, the prevailing technology is a centrifuge technology
that's being done by Centris and others. This is a billion dollar capital cost type construction for these facilities.
What they're able to do with their technology is highly revolutionary.
You're talking about capital costs that are less than 100 million.
And they've proven that this works on Ethereum 246.
There's no reason it can't work on Uranium 235.
There's a capital structure thing going on here as well.
You'll see there was a press release, I think it was yesterday or the day before,
that they are going to spin out their quantum leap operation,
which is the nuclear fuels and specialist isotopes business.
which is the nuclear fuels and specialist isotopes business.
There is obviously pharmaceutical or radiopharmaceutical applications here as well.
So for cancer drugs, for radiation, they'll keep that in a separate division.
There are also applications.
I wasn't even aware of this until I started doing some deeper digging.
There's actually a quantum computing application here as well, because they can enrich Silicon
28 to provide an element for construction of nanowires that have 150% greater heat efficiency.
So, you know, that'll stay in another division.
So, you know, we start pounding the table on this under $5.
There's a fabulously smart portfolio manager named Jacob Brogue on X
that wrote a 10-page piece better than anything I could write.
Knows his company extremely well.
And he sort of pulled the lid off of this in terms of what they have. He did a sum of the
parts calculation, estimating a value of $42 a share. The stock has moved recently, despite this
difficult market, from under five to around six, where it's trading now. Is he right on that $40 valuation?
Who knows, but the valuation, or sorry,
the margins in producing this enriched uranium are massive.
Combine that with capital costs
that are a fraction of prevailing technologies.
Combine that with an administration
that's providing regulatory support,
combine that with the demand for small modular reactors and the energy that goes along with that
for data centers. We all know that macro theme. So it ticks a lot of the boxes. That's an interesting
name. It's about a $400 million market cap. The other name that I'm going to mention, again,
It's about a $400 million market cap.
The other name that I'm going to mention, again, revolutionary technology.
Verve Therapeutics.
The ticker symbol is Verve, V-E-R-V.
And again, they had a press release just a couple of days ago where they announced initial preliminary phase one data.
This is a gene editing company. So, you know, CRISPR, like, I know you've probably all heard
about, you know, using RNA technology to, you know, essentially delete certain genes that lead
to various predispositions. And a lot of this technology, the technology itself is proven,
but what's been difficult and what's not given the market a reason to be that excited is that a lot of the applications are for rare diseases which have small, you know, addressable markets.
The cost has been difficult.
And there's three things involved in this technology.
You need to have delivery, you know, nanoparticle, lipid.
You need to have a guide so that it goes, you know, a nanoparticle, a lipid. You need to have a guide so that it goes,
you know, to the right genes. And then you need the RNA splice technology. These guys,
why I think it's interesting, number one, right now it's a $420 million market cap company.
They have $470 million in cash. It's trading at a negative enterprise
value of $50 million. They have a cash run rate to 2027. They have a strategic partner in Eli Lilly
that's already invested in the company. Eli Lilly has an option when they announced their final
phase one data to cover one third of all the capital costs globally for the right to earn 50% of just
the US market.
So these guys are in the driver's seat in terms of retaining all of the rights.
But what's more interesting is that they are targeting LDL cholesterol, which is the
underlying chronic condition leading to the world's number one killer, cardiovascular disease.
So there are 3 million people that have a hereditary condition that makes them predisposed
to high cholesterol. And these are guys and gals, you know, that are dying of heart attacks
and getting strokes at ages of 30 and whatnot. So right now, this is a high demand market. The US FDA approved
the existing standard of care drug, which is a Novartis drug called Laquio, which reduced this
LDL cholesterol by 40%. They approved it last year on phase 2b data.
This is a billion-dollar drug growing at 100% a year. It's a twice-a-year infusion. This would
be a one-and-done, a one-time infusion for the rest of your life. So in addition to the
hereditary condition, there's another 30 million people that have issues with cholesterol related to obesity and diet and other things.
The big issue for the health care system is noncompliance, people not going into getting their infusions, all the rest of it.
The burden on the health healthcare system is extreme.
So a solution like this not only has a massive market, but it's something that would be eminently
reimbursable because of the pressure it would take off of the healthcare system.
And yeah, it's been proven effective and it's been proven safe. So it's early days,
but again, it's interesting to
me for all of those reasons. D-E-R-B. Hey, Godfather, did you say for cholesterol,
it's a one-time infusion and that's it? It is a one and done, yeah, for cholesterol.
Now you got my attention because when he first brought this up i'm like dude i'm on repatha it's a uh injection you know twice a month and it's like a wonder drug like a
miracle drug i gotta tell you uh brought my cholesterol down to like almost zero i've had
some issues in the past and it's been years like man i'm like my cardiologist is amazed at how
healthy i am with this so i'm like, we don't need another thing out there.
But one and done, I got to look at this more carefully.
So thanks for bringing that up.
Yeah, but look, the backdrop is, you know, this market doesn't care about biotech,
which is a reason why, you know, something like this is trading at a negative enterprise value.
For me, I see that as an opportunity.
This is, you know, a name that has been de-risked. The market's not really paying attention to it. So
I put away a little bit in my long-term account, you know, keep adding to it as the market is weak.
And eventually, you know, we'll get to a market that starts rewarding some of these small-cap
biotechs again, or is even, you you know paying attention to it right now the
market really you know isn't even paying attention to it so hence the
opportunity awesome all right last but not least let's turn over Dougie fresh
Dougie fresh if you could start with just a quick analysis of HTZ I put a
technical target out there this morning of nine dollars to 1080 i've taken profits
on the way up i still have a position though so what are your thoughts can we get to my target
of nine to 1080 today or are we done for the day our good old hurts right here that nice run up from
yesterday i don't know you definitely need a little uh after a little post-3 o'clock run-up here.
I think it might have capped out for the day.
It doesn't look bad, though. It stopped up in the top where it just wants to run up higher.
I bet it would continue up Monday.
It is always scary after a three-day weekend.
Even a regular weekend anymore is kind of scary.
But it does, I would say, it looks like it wants to keep the momentum going into next week.
And it is an impressive one after yesterday.
I mean, that thing just shot up really good.
So I don't know if you're going to make it up there today, but you may be right there on Monday morning.
And it could be like pre-market.
It runs up.
We know they love to run up early and then pull back there.
So it does look like it has a little gas left in it to go up into the top.
Like I said, it just got in there. And they love to really run up there. So it does look like it has a little gas left in it to go up into the top. Like I said,
it just got in there and they love to really run up there. So I don't know if it's going to be,
maybe it does it in the after hours because they do like to do that, but I'm not sure if it's
going to do it before four o'clock. That's what it looks like at the moment. I appreciate that.
I just sold half of my remaining position, very small position left, just based on your commentary.
Look, you caused it to crash. Good job, Dougie. All right.
So, ready? That's funny.
But ready? So, A-R-E-C, we've been talking about. It's been very popular.
Like I was talking about the coking call. I'll just go through them real quick.
But A-R-E-C is pretty much the first one that really ran in this sector.
So you might not want to look at that.
Doug, Doug, Doug, Doug, wait a second.
The only reason AREC is running is because of their modular rare earth refining technology.
It has nothing to do with the metallurgical coal business.
coal business okay so you know it makes no sense to talk about any of the other uh met coal uh
listed companies this isn't this has nothing to do with coal i'll tell you what they're all set
up pretty nice though so i don't know i've been looking at them for like a week and they've all
been going up so right i'll go through them they've all been going up all week well look
there is a separate there is a separate theme. I just need people to understand
that the reason that AREC is in the spotlight right now is because of their rare earth refining
technology. You know, last week we had, of course, Trump meeting with the coal sector. And, you know,
we know that he's trying to revitalize that as well. So there are separate drivers there. I just
want people to know that we're talking about two different themes here.
So you either have to buy into one or the other.
And, you know, maybe AREC is well positioned because you get a little bit of both.
I actually like AREC from a fundamental standpoint because they're at risk of potentially not closing.
They're at risk of potentially not closing, but there is a bid in the background here for three of their operations, which if the numbers that were previously bandied around actually go through, that alone exceeds the existing market cap of the company.
The other thing is they're going to spin this refining of rare earth technology out into a separate business.
And you usually see some value creation when they do those two things. So, you know, I have no real interest in the Metcol, except for, you know, I'd be happy to
see them sell a bunch of these operations. They've been struggling to get and keep them at break even.
So, you know, they're legacy assets, but you need to be bullish on coal to care about the
technicals of the other comps is all I'm saying.
Yeah, no, I agree.
It definitely, and I don't follow the news.
I just look at charts, but I look down there and they definitely, American Resources unveiled
that mobile modular rare earth leaching solution to extract the value from coal and mine waste
today.
And yeah, it's been setting up all week.
We've been watching it since pretty much April 7th 7th at that bottom area it's been looking good like i said some guy on listens to the show
just mentioned it i started looking i said coking coal what the heck is that industry and i started
looking at him i'm like man this stuff's all set up so real quick just go through them jot them
down real quick you can see a uh are ec obviously ran up today on that news but the rest of these
things look like they want to jump up it's amr it's called alpha metallurgical i don't even know
what it's called but i'm telling you it's at 122 it's up four dollars and 34 cents today and it
still looks like it's going to take off it just got into the channel hcc warrior met coal this
thing looks great this is up a dollar 20.20, up to 2.5%.
They have earnings coming up, and this thing wants to jump up.
It has a little resistance at the 50 area, but it doesn't look bad.
And then there's an METC, and this thing's jumped up over 4% today,
and it's been running up.
And, again, we started looking at all these April 7th.
On April 7th, this bottom was 630.
This thing's at 984 right now. And this entire sector has been looking good. Again, we started looking at all these April 7th. On April 7th, this bottom was 630.
This thing's at 984 right now.
And this entire sector has been looking good.
I'm telling you, for like a week or two, we've been watching them.
And SXC is called Sun Coke.
And I was just having fun with the names and the name of the sector, like Coke and coal.
What is this?
But yeah, we've been watching these things and watching them.
This thing is up over a percent.
But this thing on April 7th was down at like, what, 785.
It's at 936.
They're all just running, and these ones are just starting to get moving some more.
And again, the AREC ran the biggest.
I think it's in the top, and I don't know anything about these companies, but I would say I'd watch for pullback on that and then watch it go back up
again but yeah the other ones are all looking great to have quick pops and then to touch on
something spartan mentioned um he said something about uranium in in canada i've been watching that
dnn i mentioned it before on here and that bottomed out right around april 7th as well around like
that dollar eight and now it's at $1.38 and looking pretty good.
So that one was looking good.
And then Money Mark, I've been following that G-O-D-F.
That one's been really good.
I'm not a big OTC person, but that G-O-D-F thing, I was watching that.
And that thing bottomed out right probably around the same time.
Yeah, April 10th, right around there, I was watching.
And it's jumping up, and it is setting up. I would watch if it pulls back anywhere in like that dollar 99 area
but it's gonna run up that drilling one i'm telling you i've been keeping an eye on that
you've been talking about it and uh yeah and godfather i agree are ec like i said i don't
know anything about them it definitely ran up on that news but watch the other ones maybe the other
ones are just kind of running up because they are uh the arec did but they've been setting up for like a week or two and not
looking bad so just ones to keep an eye on and again just kind of sector related um and the other
ones obviously don't have the great news that um arec had that's why that one's really up but these
other ones look good to run up a little bit so you can keep an eye on these coking coal ones and like i said i just found it interesting i had never heard of that
industry before in my life so it was just kind of intriguing and then all of a sudden these things
set up and start running for the last week or two and like you guys said a lot of natural resource
ones and things like that the drilling and mining ones they're running right now hey dougie now that
you looked at money marks godf uh let me pick your brand about salem another otc that i was
looking at it yeah no i was checking it out when you were talking about it and it did yeah i think
you're gonna get another run up on it it did it ran up the other day like you were talking about
had some good pullback yesterday and now it looks like it's trying to base up and trying to curl
back up.
It definitely stopped.
And look, I wish we didn't have a three-day weekend ahead of this.
It would make it a little easier, and anything can happen on that.
But yeah, and these 20s and 50s, when the 20s coming up and meeting that 50, and they just meet up and pinch each other, they generally drive it up.
That's exactly what happened with ARE arec if you look at the chart
today is exactly when they met and uh and we've been saying that look right now is like the
perfect look if you look at the charts and your uh 20-day moving averages moving up towards your
50-day one and the 20 starts curling up and it meets the 50 of the 20s under it starts meeting
up to that 50 and they line up and touch each other they're generally jumping off it's a really good pattern to keep an eye on and look at
are ec's chart today on finvis it'll show you exactly that and you'll get a good idea but yeah
are ec did it and it jumped it right up into the top there and salem honestly it jumped right up
there and now it's touching there today you would think it's going to run up more. It looks like it wants to push it up some more.
So that's what it looks like.
But yeah, it had a nice run up the other day.
That was damn sweet, I guess.
I didn't know about it, but Trump Jr. jumped on board on this company.
He runs up these companies like crazy.
It's wild.
If you could only know which ones he was getting into the day before, holy cow, you'd make a fortune immediately.
Yeah, well, we got lucky with UMAC.
We were in UMAC the day before that news came out because it was crazy.
We were just researching drones, and we just got lucky.
It was crazy.
That's a beauty.
Emp, you there?
All right.
So, listen, our schedule, this show is usually on Mondays at 1 p.m.
So I think we're probably going to resume Monday at 1 p.m. to be confirmed later.
Make sure to give everyone a follow here.
Money Mark has a YouTube channel, I think maybe a blog as well.
So go ahead to his profile, follow him so you can keep in touch with his content.
Dougie Fresh also does free shows on X, so make sure to follow him.
Godfather, you can follow him and join our discord through his link over there or you can join our discord
through my link on my profile here on story trading so I appreciate everyone
there's there's the emp is there behind the scenes any any final words hey Ben
real quick the GDXJ chart is in the jumbotron now and you've got circles
around every area where gold was up and oil was down. Love it. Thank you. I bookmarked it.
Empt, were we about to say something? All right. So.
Yeah. Sorry, Ben. I lost audio. My phone has had no audio. And so you saw I joined on my personal account here, just like I've listened to you guys. I was like, what in the world's going on? It's been a fun afternoon, a great show. Ben, any final comments? I do say, I want to shout you guys out. There's been some great picks on this very show. And you guys, everyone up here, I know, does things outside of this show. Definitely check everyone out up here. Give them a follow.
Check out their discords.
Check out the live streams.
I know Ben, I don't know if Godfather and Money Mark do them as much, but Ben, I know I've seen you on them.
Dougie French, I've seen you do a lot of ticker live shows.
So I do want to shout those out and encourage everyone.
Check it out.
Check out what these guys are doing outside of these spaces as well.
Ben, any final comments or anything from you?
I know I just kind of jumped in here, but it was one that was just out. I mean, if I can, a little bit of a spaces as well. Ben, any final comments or anything from you? I know I just kind of jumped in here, but it was one that
was just out. Yeah, I mean, if I can,
a little bit of a plug as well. We now do
a once a week spaces
on story trading. We just talk
about our week, how it went, some
of our plays for the week, and how our community
works, how our Discord works. That's today
at 4.30 p.m. So if you want to
be there, just make sure to follow myself for
The Godfather, and we'll have a chat withm. So if you want to be there, just make sure to follow myself for the Godfather and,
you know,
we'll,
we'll have a chat with you.
So looking forward.
Beautiful,
beautiful,
beautiful.
All right.
Well,
that was our small cap show.
We'll be back to Monday next week.
Make sure you tune in Monday at 1 p.m.
Eastern.
And,
we've got stocks on spaces coming up here in 40 minutes.
Big shout out to Money Mark,
The Godfather, Dougie Fresh,
Ben over at Story Trading,
Spartan jumped in here
a little bit as well.
And Ariel, our friend
at Catalyst Capital.
Make sure you check all of them out.
Thanks to everyone that tuned in.
And I am excited for next week.
I've got my list of names out.
That's why I joined
my personal account,
just so I could note down
some of the tickers
that were being talked about
here in the second part of this show. So great job to everyone.
Thanks to everyone that tuned in. We'll see you guys on Stocks on Spaces here in a little bit.
Take care, everyone. Thank you.
