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Software Just Bottomed? $IGV $PLTR $NOW $ONDS $KTOS $AVAV $AAPL $MSFT
Recorded: March 2, 2026 Duration: 0:46:29Space Recording
Full Transcription
welcome welcome everyone to the first trading day of march and my goodness, no single day is starting without some sort of crazy move or
surprise in the markets. Yesterday, I thought the world's going to fall off a cliff, or at least
that's what I was told. And then now we're green. We're green across the board. We're green on IWM,
we're green in the Qs, we're green in the RSP, we're kind of teetering the RSP. And we're also green on SPY, but especially green on IGV, the software ETF.
Software stocks are coming back, baby.
And this is not only from a fundamental perspective, because I got to be honest, it got a little
bit overblown.
And I know I wasn't really buying the dip hard or anything because I would rather buy
the recovery than buy a falling knife. But my goodness, some of these software stocks are up tremendously today,
but not all of them. Some are pretty down. But what was really up the most today were drone
stocks. Ondus was up 20%. Kratos was up, I think like 17%. AVAV or aero environment was up almost 20%. But all that move has faded.
What exactly happened?
We're going to get a little bit into that one too.
And also we're going to take a look at some news as well.
We had over the weekend, or at least last Friday,
Anthropic came out and said they are not going to side with the government
or the Department of Defense.
And then Trump got a little bit upset and basically stopped
and seized all federal activity of using Anthropic.
And now OpenAI and Sam Altman came by.
They're trying to swoop in and take the spotlight from there.
We'll talk a little about that one.
And also, we're going to listen to what Steve Eisman has to say.
Of course, the gentleman from The Big Short, the famous guy, also has his podcast, The Real Eisman Playbook, which is actually a really good one.
I recommend that one. and a few more things here on the solid report welcome everyone March 3rd what is going
on how are you yeah that's right here tapped let's go let's go yep crazy turnaround I know
seriously man well Nick what a crazy turnaround crazy yep sam saw that is what you know what on this didn't fall
back as much as the other ones but i think because we saw this rotation back in the software tech
comes back people took their profits and all the drone stuff that they held for a little bit with
that comeback and now they're rotating back doesn't mean that it can't have a comeback story
i'm going to talk a little bit about drone stocks as well we'll take a look at that one what is going on everyone all right so the first thing we're going to talk about and
specifically do is look at the charts here for software because this thing is just off the wall
right now you know let me get let me get let me get a little bit of sam action over there all right
so igv here is looks like it's making a comeback.
Now, did this bottom, you know, I'll be honest, we need some confirmation here.
We already had a couple of follow-through days here.
We had one big green candle here.
We had another big green candle today to make a higher high.
And we're back above the 20-day moving average, which is really good to see in terms of the software ETF.
But if we look under the hood at some software stocks over here, we have Clavio is up 6%, but that's because they did a major
buyback. I was actually wondering why in the world this is up 6%. And then Shai told me exactly what
it was. ServiceNow, which is probably one of the more top tier software stocks. And Jeffries
actually came out and said that this is going to be disrupted by AI. Well,
I highly disagree with you, Jeffries. It is not going to be disrupted by AI. In fact,
they're already profiting off of AI and they will continue to profit as software becomes the sole
reliance on pushing AI across all landscapes. You have your LLMs of course, but then you have
these software companies that are to come out and utilize the maximum contribution of using ai and agentic ai on their own platform so sorry
jeffries but i think you guys are going to be wrong with this one but when exactly are you
going to make you're wrong well i'll tell you something these these analysts they tend to
they tend to go against the grain a little bit or at least try to but then once it starts out
performing that's when they try to come back and they try to be bullish the grain a little bit or at least try to. But then once it starts outperforming,
that's when they try to come back and they try to be bullish again.
But we'll see what happens with that one.
It is good to see that software is bouncing pretty considerably here.
Of course, cloud flares up.
I don't know why this one was down in the first place
when all of a sudden it was like above 200 bucks after earnings.
But then it pulled back pretty decently
and made a double bottom over here and bounced back.
We'll see. We'll see.
We need to see some fall through on some of these charts. GitLab is down, of course. Datadog is
down. CRM is down. But arguably, these charts look a lot better. It looks like CRM is coming
back at a Tesla 20-day moving average. But again, on the weekly charts, they're definitely not good
at all. Cloudflare does have a much better weekly chart, but ServiceNow weekly chart is not looking
good at all. So these really do need a lot of work, but a stock that is up very considerably
today is Palantir. We heard news that Palantir was used for the attacks that we launched against
Iran in addition to Claude or Anthropic. And it's really funny because we have over here that the president's
banning using clod or anthropic and then they use it right so maybe software matters a lot more than
people think or at least what the analysts think on wall street so we'll take a look at that one
cyber security is coming back pretty nicely as well crowd strike is coming back to the 100 weekly
average um rubric is coming back but you know this this chart needs a lot of work
still it definitely needs a lot of work and you have a few of the other cyber security stocks
coming back but zscaler is definitely still down there and shift for actually jared isaacman bought
i think about 13 million dollars at 1.3 million dollars of share don't um don't quote me on that
one it was definitely a one in a three i just forgot whether it was 13 million or 1.3 i mean you know just a 10 million dollar difference like who cares it's not
a big deal all right so some stocks that are still down i don't know exactly why c limited is down so
if you know exactly why this one's down why don't you go ahead and uh and uh share that in the chat
so we can take a look at that one new bank is having a little bit of a bounce back which is
great but that those earnings are actually good but of of course, the market's going to attack FinTech
and FinTech is going to continue to be on fire. And so things actually do come back. But
one thing that actually did have a little bit of recovery today, which is really good to see,
is Bitcoin. Did it continue to go above 70K? But this is a pretty considerable bounce
since last week. If I go here in the daily chart um it just looks like it's basing out over here um so maybe this is like sort of an accumulation
phase because you have your stage you're your four stages right you have your you have your
stage one which is the uh accumulation and then you have stage two which is upheaval and then you
have stage three which is the distribution or the balancing out and you have stage four which is a
downfall so maybe we might be in a
stage four over here in bitcoin um but of course you know something like this could also happen as
well so let's uh let's just try to be patient with that one at least i'm going to be patient
with that one before i trigger some traits to the upside in that one but yeah definitely looking
good and one thing that's actually pretty interesting over here is that if i go to the
s&p 500 sectors you do have the outperformance of tech in the S&P 500.
Unfortunately, XLY is down today.
That's because Amazon and Tesla are down, which is about 40% of that sector on its own.
But you do have IGV continuing to outperform semiconductors or the SOX ETF.
I'd like to look at this ratio over here because it's been a continuous downtrend,
meaning that SOX has been massively outperforming IGV for quite some time.
If you know your math over there, you can kind of figure out why this is happening.
But lately, you have today where SOX is basically flat, which arguably is a much better looking chart than IGV.
But IGV is making a nice little comeback here today, and that's doing pretty well.
KWeb, China tech continues to underperform.
So maybe that China trade isn't back yet, but we will see.
Yeah. We're going to get a little bit into the reason why the drone stocks are down.
Um, long story short, there was a report that came out, but, uh, we'll, we'll take a look
at that one.
All right.
So I did discuss, um, I, I did discuss the, the IGV comeback.
I want to get a little bit into the, uh, drone situation. I did discuss the IGV comeback.
I want to get a little bit into the drone situation.
So drones looked really good this morning.
I said earlier in the segment as drones were just rallying pre-market and ever since yesterday when the overnight markets opened.
And today we're seeing a little bit of underperformance intraday on the drone stocks
but still doing pretty well i wanted to play this clip over here from cnbc for you guys you can get
a little bit from an analytics perspective the reason why drone stocks are doing good
let me go ahead and share this screen over here
in Iran let's bring in Ian Bremmer Eurasia Group president this morning talk about what
might be in store for us Ian good to see you.
Good to see you.
Curious how you're thinking about duration right now and scope as we keep an eye on some
of these reports about for example strikes on Hezbollah? Well, Hezbollah, I mean, the IRGC, the Islamic Republic of the Guard Corps of Iran, have
a great influence over what Hezbollah does.
They have two, you know, essentially management seats, board seats in formal governance of
Hezbollah.
So in some ways, the Iranians are making more of the calls of what
Hezbollah is doing than they are with their own military units that they can't communicate with
internally. One of the ironies of this war. But back during previous Hezbollah strikes against
Israel, you used to see salvos of 40, 50, 100 missiles at a time. This was six.
So let's recognize that although it's opened the front,
Hezbollah's actual capabilities are wildly diminished from what they were before.
Broadly on the war, Iran at this point looks like they probably have maybe a thousand
or below a thousand medium and long-range missiles left
that they can actually engage in strikes with.
And they used to never want to get below 1,800.
That was like the absolute minimum to have a functional military.
So they're running out.
It's probably most a few more days of the Iranians being able to engage
in significant missile strikes in the region,
most of which get intercepted.
But then it's drones.
And the drone war, they'll be able to engage in for a much longer period of time.
And the question of to what extent you're going to see interceptors,
and are they going to run out?
Because the US can't maintain this level of naval presence in the region if they don't have interceptors boats to protect them. So I do think, well, as this war continues,
yes, at a lower pace, but you could start to see more drones getting through, and, you know,
on a daily basis, there could be some fairly significant attacks with casualties
around the Gulf and in the Straits final point Carl is we haven't really heard
from the Houthis yet we've heard from Hezbollah but in terms of what they
might be willing to do to engage in strikes to disrupt to destroy tankers
that they find in in the Straits and beyond that would be significant and so far
that's been a wait and see right so is the key question about i mean you're right about the
drone aspect and they've got thousands left uh can they create enough havoc in
okay so um he's gonna go a little bit on or he went a little bit on with the uh with that one but
you can understand the bullishness when it comes to using drones or non-man aircrafts in order to
attack your reducer casualties but also the precision of course is a lot is going to be a
lot more extreme when you think about controlling a robot versus you know flying a helicopter
whatever it is and the maneuvering capability and the smaller form factor can just make it a lot
easier to attack a certain country whatever it is so i don't want to get political here you know
i'm only here to provide stock news whatever so if you have any political comments to make i'm not
going to be here to make them whatever but you know feel free but i'm not going to get into that
but i'm looking at this more from the stock market perspective, because of course we are a Wolf financial channel. And I would say for the
most part, war is somewhat bullish for the stock market. You have increased spending, which means
increased budgeting for a lot of defense contracts. And on top of that, because you have to win the
war, the spending will not only only increase but also all the suppliers for
these government contractors are also going to win as well right so it's like i mean you know
it is bullish it means more spending is just bullish for stocks in general and that's what
we saw in 2020 and we're probably going to continue to continue to see it today and that
in my opinion is the reason why the market basically bought them at this attack we saw it
last time when israel attacked um when israel attacked ir. We saw it last time when Israel attacked Iran.
We saw it when the Ukraine-Russia war started where the market basically bottomed on the day
after that they attacked them. We saw it with Venezuela. We saw it with a lot of these other
things as well. Conflict is bullish for stocks. And it does suck that innocent people have to die
from both sides. Of course, the military, some people are going to die as well.
But at the end of the day, you know, if you're about the stock market, these type of things was pretty much being priced in leading into the event.
Now, what is it looking like after the event happened?
And I'm going to get a little bit into the drone activity as well.
Is it your Lockheed Martin?
Lockheed Martin was up a lot yesterday okay so if I go on the 10 minute chart here I don't really like to do the
intraday charts but it's just easier to see it here you have Lockheed Martin was up insanely
this morning as soon as the market or as soon as pre-market was open let me hide this one Lockheed
Martin was up yeah it was up as much as nine% and look now it's only up 2.3% right and then you also have over
here Raytheon which is up more than Lockheed Martin that's because they probably a little
more upside since it's not as large of a company that was up 9% now they're up four and a half
percent all right Ondus was up a lot more.
In fact, as soon as the market opened, Ondas just like ripped higher.
It was up as much as 25%.
And now it's only up 3%.
Kratos was up a lot more.
Actually, no, I don't think it was up a lot more, but it was also up a lot as well.
It was up 12%.
Nearly went red in the morning and now kind of floating out over here.
There was one stock that was up 20% until something was released.
Okay.
AVAV or aero environment was up 20%.
Now it's down 20%.
What in the world happened?
Well, I got to get a little bit into the fundamentals as to what actually happened on Wall Street.
But I do think this is a little bit of an excuse for the real dump that actually happened.
So let me go ahead and share.
Oh, actually, I did have a...
I lost it.
Say no to trading.
Posted about this one.
I mean, he's certainly buying the dip, so kudos to him.
That guy's been doing pretty well.
It is swing trading.
So, error environment, AVAV, right?
Why is AVAV and Kratos down suddenly falling midday?
The sudden midday drop in AVAV
appears to be driven by a downgrade from Raymond James, which shifted its rating from strong buy
to underperform. This stems from the U.S. Space Force's decision to recompete its satellite
communications augmentation resource or SCAR program, previously valued at $1.4 billion,
representing AVAV's largest contract contract the program originally awarded to blue halo
acquired by avav involves six ground stations with potential for up to 50 units but was already
under stop work order the recompetition could lead to share loss or exclusion impacting backlog
growth and putting pressure on near-term revenue as order volumes moderate competition intensifies all right so they had good earnings
but the stock like i showed you earlier is down 20 okay guys i don't think this is
specifically tied to them form yes of course a lot of people listen to Wall Street
and they invest based on what Wall Street says.
It's what these analysts do.
They're basically paid to do research on stocks
or I don't know, quote unquote,
be able to gain more eyes on and so on.
But this stock has been in an insane rampage
since April of last year.
And since it topped out around $400,
it's basically 50% down, right? So leading up to the event, you have other stocks like Kratos,
I'm sorry, like Ondis, which have made massive moves. And then as soon as the event happens,
it rips up higher and then profits are taken, right? So in the stock market, this happens a lot.
right so in the stock market this happens a lot it's not just with these drone stocks but it
happens a lot many times i did a post about this yesterday or actually i co-tweeted it yesterday
but basically everyone's talking about how these drone stocks are up an insane amount
on this was up lockheed martin was up rtx up and i said okay so everyone's getting excited about
these about these war stocks these drone stocks and everything they saw it up and everything you
definitely have some people chasing it into uh low liquidity overnight markets and the problem with
this is that when the event happens that's when everything is already priced in. So more times than not, I'm not saying this can't happen, but more times than not.
Sometimes when everyone knows why something is bullish, there's no one left to buy, right?
Or the people that bought much earlier are now getting out and selling into the rally.
So it's better to not chase, right?
Okay. Ondas is down.
Ondas is up 3% today.
So that maybe if you're a bullish thesis, it might make more sense, right?
Wait for the price to come to you versus chasing the move.
Unless you have really strong stomach or you know what then and well that it might pull back, you know, whatever it is.
Whatever your strategy is, maybe that works for you. But for me, I don't like to chase and it's not because like,
Ooh, I don't like to chase. Cause I know it's gonna come down. It's got, I do it. I got burnt
so many times on doing stuff like this. Right. But then as I started trading a bit more, I started
to notice like this happens so many more times than when it doesn't happen. Right. When you
chase stuff, not only are you buying it probably close to the top,
but also if it drops back, you might get scared and get out of the position
if you don't have that conviction because you see price coming against you
or your stop loss gets hit, whatever it is.
But you're not the only one thinking this.
A lot of people are thinking this.
A lot of algos are trading this.
A lot of fund managers are doing this.
A lot of big-time traders are doing this too.
And when they get out, it might bring the stock lower because they're going to be
selling out in size. So I got to say, you have to be careful. When I shared this post,
we saw last week that EOS basically was down like, what is it like 40%, right?
So I bought EOS or EOS Energy in the low single digits digits and i saw the thing rip up higher you know and i held
on to it for a little bit this is a trade like i i i'm not i i think nowadays i find it very
difficult to hold on to um very like very uh pre-revenue stocks um where you basically price
in the future revenue everything for a long period of time in size right so i played this with call i played with this call options and also played with shares
and i got out um around 14 bucks and the thing continued to go higher as i could see in the
chart it was like around here where i tweeted out i might have made a mistake selling four
ten four five times eos at 14. actually this is this is in a tweet it was a reply to someone's
post and dude i went through this and I I'm human too, right?
Like this sucks.
I was like, what really?
Oh my goodness.
It keeps on going.
Okay.
Maybe I should reenter.
And then, no, I'm not going to reenter.
I got to stick by my standards and not chase.
And it goes back up to 19 bucks.
And I'm like, oh shoot.
And it comes down.
I'm like, okay, make a reenter.
And I remember around here, I was like, okay, maybe this might be a good entry over here, but I just decided not to. It's like, you know what? Let me just move on. There's way other stuff to get into out there. And I remember around here, I was like, okay, maybe this might be a good entry over here,
but I just decided not to.
It's like, you know what?
Let me just move on.
There's way other stuff to get into out there.
And I did.
I got into other stuff that didn't fall down 40%.
And, you know, everyone makes mistakes, right?
If you bought it over here and it falls down 40%, it happens, right?
That's just part of the game.
It happens.
But something that Paul Tudor Jones always said is that it's better to stay, be out of
a trade wishing you were in it than a trade wishing you were out, right?
How much would it suck to see this happen, chase it up here, and then it dropped down?
And then now you're thinking like, I should have never entered this trade, right?
And that happens so many times.
Like that, that happens to me still it's, it happens to a lot of people still like,
no one avoids it. Like we're human. These are just emotions that happen. Like we can't suppress
our emotions. Like there is not a single trade out there that suppresses all their emotions.
Like they feel it, but they just have the discipline to not act on it. Right. Everyone
feels these emotions. And the thing is is is that you just have to be disciplined
to not do anything right and be confident in the long term or in the long game where the game isn't
about making like massive wins like small massive wins all the time like you might get lucky once
or twice but then you size up in the third one and then you give it all back right so let's say
you caught eos and you sold a 14 good job, and then you caught Navitas and you sold that like
15, whatever. Good job. Right. And you're thinking like, man, I'm like really good at this. Right.
So I can get like really rich with this and I'll just like double the size on the next one.
And then it doesn't come in your favor. It doesn't come, it doesn't come in your favor at all. And
then you get, you get wrecked after that. You lose all confidence. It doesn't come in your favor at all. And then you get
wrecked after that. You lose all confidence. You don't take the bets you're supposed to be taking
or you don't do the trades you're supposed to be doing. And then you miss a lot of stuff.
And then you think to yourself like, you know what? I've seen a lot of this work. I gained
the confidence back. Let me try to do this next one and give this one another shot. And then that
one doesn't work. And now you're spiraling down after that. These are the things you kind of want to avoid doing in the markets. This is actually what we've been seeing
in the stock market for the last like five months, just chop back and forth, back and forth, back and
forth. And people get very excited when things go up after being on a crazy downtrend, right?
Like think about software stocks. Software stocks are
bouncing today, but if you look on the chart, it has had a terrible year still, right? And yes,
it might come back, right? But what if it doesn't? You're going to get chopped up again. So it's
kind of something you do want one build conviction in because if you build a conviction in it,
right, then you'll be able to withstand drawdownss but if you don't build a conviction in it and you chase it like today and
then it's down like five percent tomorrow you're probably going to sell and that's something you
have to be very careful about you have to be very careful with chasing because chasing never ends
up one long term no one has ever had successful career chasing stuff because one of
them is going to hit you and it'll be one that you likely size more than that all right so
let's uh let's take a look at uh a few other things um we did go over the uh steve uh eisman
actually no let's go over the steve eisman one uh yeah that's right i did not play that one for
you i want to go over what he has to say he has a really good podcast, but I'm going to play this clip for you guys over here real quick.
Yeah, not a single trade.
I think long term, this is very, very positive because it means the Middle East will be a lot, I think, eventually.
Not only is it not a negative, even with oil and volatility.
People react because of what's happening.
Oil prices are obviously up.
But if it goes well, two months from now,
oil prices will be back to where they were.
So you just said that they could absorb a lot more pain.
This could take a lot longer.
Are you kind of willing to do the same thing in the markets?
You just stay steady because you figure eventually. think of that look eventually we'll win but like I said the
this regime views pain agony and martyrdom as a sign of its own sacredness and so if when you view
death as a sign of your own righteousness you're willing to absorb a lot more pain.
So it's going to take time.
So you wouldn't change a single thing you're doing in the market.
What are you doing?
I've taken some risks down because I think the biggest long-term risk to the market is, I mean, there's this fear like all of a sudden people are going to stop buying NVIDIA chips.
That I think is wrong.
I mean, it's very, very clear given the fact that just four hyperscalers are going to spend $650 billion on AI infrastructure
versus $450 billion that was spent by everybody last year,
that NVIDIA's numbers will be fine for at least another year.
The issue, and the issue isn't does AI work, AI does work.
The question is, are people going to make enough money at all this stuff that they're trying to create
to justify the enormous amount of money that's being spent?
And the problem right now is you could say whatever
you want you could say it's not gonna it's not justifiable and there's there's i don't have a
data point that could prove to you that that's wrong or you could say that it is justifiable
and you know one of the nice things about my podcast is i get comments from from viewers all
the time and i get both points of view and they're and the both points of view
are written by people who are very sophisticated who are in the industry so we won't know
probably for at least a year what whether all this money that's being spent is justifiable or not
until then you could say whatever you want and that's that's why I think the market
gets whipsawed all the time you know someone who put out that piece um last week it was like a
fantasy about the end of the it was a firm I had never I know I never heard of them and some somebody
put like a science fiction fantasy piece about the end of the world because of AI and people read it
and they said oh my god and they market tanked. Well, I could write
something that, I could have written something like that too, but so what? It doesn't mean
anything. It's all complete conjecture. What does Jack Dorsey's move to lay off
half of block employees mean? All right. So we have some news that came up over here uh so basically iran's revolutionary guards
commander says the strait of hormaz is closed iran is set on fire any ship trying to pass the
iranian media and it looks like the market's completely reversed all of its gains earlier
i mean this is a super choppy day and i think we're still going to continue to see this chop over here.
I mean, yeah, it was great to see the market up and everything, but I mean, we're still in chop mode, right?
So this is just, if I go on the daily chart over here on SPY, like this has just been this since October 10, right?
This was the ultimate hammer down here
and since then it's just been this right but still it's still like slightly moving up making higher
highs higher lows but i don't honestly i i don't know when this is going to break out but there
have been other stocks that have just been going straight up like aoi is just going straight i mean
been other stocks that have just been going straight up like aoi is just going straight
we talk about talk about a crazy chart here um but uh you know there's some other stuff that will
likely uh do pretty well um i mean this one over here i got a small position uh ampx um also a few
other stuff as well but yeah vix is still vix was much as $25, but VIX is still just rallying up,
right? This is a trend in VIX that you see over here. And every time it's like, oh, VIX is coming
down, VIX is coming up. It's like, no, VIX is just trending up. This is the kind of environment
where you don't want to be doing like massive swings and options and stuff, because you don't know whether you're
going to get a massive face river to the downside after a big move up. And we've seen that with the
cues when it was just the other day that like cues was back here above the 50 day moving average,
right. And then slams down. Right. And then today we came back and we got, we pulled back a little
bit. So like, I don't know what's going to happen happen but it looks like this 587 level in the queues is it's gonna hit at some point like i just feel like you see
this that you see this like this is just it looks like this is just chop look at the queues over
here just non-stop just up and down right so it's it's definitely a um a stock pickups market today
this is not this is not something that you want to swing with like
large calls. Like I I've taken all of my calls off the table or I think I'm like 5%, 7% calls
in the portfolio right now. Today I'm fully allocated again, but, um, this does warrant
a time to not do massive swings to the upside with call options and leverage and margin, right?
Like it's just be mindful of what you're doing. And, uh, yeah, I, I, I got, I gave a little bit back. I gave more than a little bit
back over here and you know, it's kind of sucks, but like, that's just the name of the game. Like
you've got to understand what's happening here. And like I said, like not everything is down,
right? So let me just go to some, uh, let me just go to some positions of the portfolio real quick.
All right.
So Robinhood is doing pretty well because things are coming back.
Zeta, I had an interview with the CEO last Friday, and it was a great interview.
I'd recommend you all see it.
It's posted on the Wolf YouTube if you guys want to check that one out, by the way.
And also, if you're not already, go ahead and check out the Wolf YouTube channel,
youtube.com forward slash at Wolf Financial.
Lots of great content on there.
In fact, I think CES is supposed to be coming up next week.
So there's going to be a lot of stuff that Wolf is going to have interviews and stuff over there.
So go ahead and check that out.
But it was a great interview.
And I'm bullish data.
I really am.
Like, I think it's a great company.
I think that it's pretty undervalued today.
But like, I also know that, look, if software comes back down, like Zeta is going to go
down with it.
Like, there's just, there's no place in this world where if software comes down and makes
new lows, that Zeta is not going to be brought down.
Because it has been, it is not because of the fact that I think Zeta is a bad company,
but it's just, dude, look at the correlation between zeta and igv it's like
pretty much in sync around like they've been like around here right so there's periods of times where
software is going down and zeta underperforms software and then when software comes back
zeta outperforms like zeta is like a high beta position on software right the good part is is
that zeta is not overvalued in my opinion. I don't think it's trading like 20 times EV
sales forward. It's trading at a cheap multiple, even on 2027 earnings as well. And again,
check out the interview, build your conviction on it, right? Don't take my word for it,
build your conviction with it more than just watch an interview as well. But I definitely do think
that there's going to be certain beneficiaries of this when software comes back.
And there's certain companies where I don't think
that they're going to be a massive beneficiary.
Like I don't know with Salesforce.
I think they're buying a lot of the growth inorganically.
And I think they're a very mature company
and they're not going to come back and make like 30% growth.
That's not Salesforce unless they buy it. And even then, I don't know what they're buying that's going to accelerate their growth by 30%.
Right?
So you got to kind of be a little bit careful here buying stocks that just like keep going to the moon.
Right?
So you don't want to chase that.
What's my average data?
Well, I mean, it's like right on my average.
I think it's like about 17 and a half or less.
Somewhere between like 16 and a half to 17 and a half. I forget exactly. But yeah. GTC. Oh, yeah, you're right on my average. I think it's like about 17 and a half or less, somewhere between like 16 and a half to 17 and a half.
I forget exactly, but yeah.
GTC.
Oh yeah, you're right.
GTC, not CES.
You are correct.
Yeah.
We're going to be dead in a year.
I mean, I, you know, I, I, I, I feel bad because like,
obviously you're kidding around, but you know,
we got to remember like,
there's actually people out there that are, that,
that don't want the war, but are getting hurt by it again. You know,
it's mostly the innocent people that, you know, that,
that it sucks to be like caught in a crossfire in that situation. Oh, wow.
Look at that Amcor's green today. That's good to see. And on some,
oh, ACLS is coming back. It's nice to see recovering a hundred day moving
average. Yeah. So let's,
let's move on a little bit.
I don't want to focus too much on certain things.
We don't have too much time here. Actually, how much time? My 30, 30. Okay.
All right. We've got some time. We've got some time. All right.
Conflict opening. It takes advantage of Anthropic, right?
So we had a little bit of a stuff happening last week of Anthropic. Right. So we had a little bit of stuff happening last week with Anthropic.
I wanted to play this clip for you guys just to get brought up up to speed here with what's happening with Anthropic.
This is from CNBC. Let me go ahead and play this one.
The Department of Defense now striking a deal with OpenAI to use its AI models.
The company stepping in after the president ordered the government to stop using Anthropic, their main competitor.
Deirdre Bo says live outside of Anthropic's headquarters in San Francisco for today's
tech check. Morning, D. Hey, good morning, Carl. So there are fresh chalk messages of
support out on the sidewalk here and in front of OpenAI headquarters. That is new because the
story is still moving very quickly. Just in the last hour, Treasury Secretary Scott Besson announced
the department is terminating all use of anthropic products, saying, quote, no private company will
ever dictate the terms of our national security. So this is now spreading beyond the Pentagon.
The administration is making an example of Anthropik across the federal government.
Anthropik, for its part, says that it will challenge that supply chain designation in court.
And yet, the backlash is going in the other direction here.
Over the weekend, Anthropik's Claude app, it hit number one spot on the App Store,
dethroning ChatGPT for the first time ever.
So, OpenAI may have won the government,
but Anthropic is winning the narratives with consumers and developers so far. But this is
far from over because at its core, this is about who should decide how the most powerful military
on earth uses AI, an unelected CEO in San Francisco or elected officials and the laws that they pass.
Now, a source familiar with
the negotiations tells me that the real deal breaker for Anthropik was the surveillance piece
of this. The Pentagon wanted to use AI to analyze bulk data on Americans. The current system, it
shows where you've been, but add in AI and that becomes a lot more powerful. It can predict
theoretically where you are going. OpenAI's deal only restricts private data, not this kind of publicly available data.
And all of this matters because now the template for every AI military deal and what comes after it,
this has sort of set the precedent.
And it could also be a playbook for the labs as models are increasingly becoming commoditized.
Anthropic is essentially building a moat based on values,
not benchmarks. And across town, guys, OpenAI employees, they are heading into work this
morning as well. They are being greeted by fresh messages on their sidewalks as well
against the deal that Sam Altman signed over the weekend. And what's interesting, too,
is a lot of the messages on the sidewalk there are directed towards OpenAI employees,
asking them to use their voices and call out what's happening.
And remember that nearly 100 of them signed a letter before the weekend backing Anthropik's position over their own company's deal.
So how Altman responds to them may tell us a lot about what comes next.
next. Dee, it's one thing for the Pentagon to cancel your contract. It's another for them
Dee, it's one thing for the Pentagon to cancel your contract.
to then say, oh, also you can't do business with any of our other vendors. On Friday,
critics called that a form of corporate murder and wondered if it would have a chilling effect
on tech's willingness to do business with the government. It's such an interesting debate right
now, right? It's who makes this call? Is it the government or
is it a private company CEO? And that is certainly the part that Anthropik is challenging, saying
that they're going to challenge that supply chain designation in court. And it's very split right
now. I mean, OpenAI, Sam Altman, he saw the opportunity to take this deal. It's a $200
million Pentagon deal. But like I said, Anthropic is kind of winning the narrative
here because the fact that they're willing to walk away from it tells, you know, corporate America
in particular, that they have a great model that the Pentagon wants, but now they're replacing or
trying to replace and do that. They will walk away from things based on principles. And that
could be powerful. We're seeing that it's powerful with consumers already. And we'll see how this
shapes up during the day, because I think the employee piece is going to be really interesting.
We've seen this in tech before with Google and government contracts.
This is now playing out in the AI era where the stakes are arguably much higher.
Yeah, as Claude goes to number one on the App Store.
Dee, thank you very much.
All right. So what do I think about this situation that's happening here?
All right.
Clearly, we've had some issues here between Anthropic and OpenAI.
Right.
So Dario, CEO of Anthropic, did come from OpenAI originally, but then he fled and he started his own company.
And now him and Sam
Altman have some beef with each other, probably going a long time. We all saw the video when
they're in the India AI summit and they refuse to hold hands with each other and so on, whatever.
Like they're clearly in competition, right? Open AI is valued more than two times of Anthropic,
but Anthropic is catching up pretty quickly. And also we do hear about the Oracle CDS
spreads, which are nearing the widest since 2008, which means that the insurers need more premium
in order to finance the debt from Oracle, because most of their backlog has come from OpenAI,
and the market's not necessarily looking at OpenAI from a good side, right? So
OpenAI is clearly trying to take the cake from Anthropic while they a good side, right? So OpenAI is clearly trying to take the
cake from Anthropic while they have a chance, right? So they're obviously executing in that
form so that way they can get more business and hopefully eventually overtake Anthropic.
But Anthropic didn't want to take these government contracts for a reason. They didn't want the
government to control their business and their models are obviously doing very well
and they want to take that standpoint we've seen anthropic take this standpoint where
we don't want ads in our platform and so on then obviously open ai is is monetizing ads
so it's a little bit of different company but two arguably are two very good models and things are
starting to get a little bit of heated there but i don't think this is necessarily going to end
anytime soon i think we're going to continue to see a little bit of heated there, but I don't think this is necessarily going to end anytime soon. I think we're going to continue to see a little bit of back and forth
where the tennis ball goes from one side of the court
to the other side of the court,
and there'll be a lot of back and forth.
So it's a good thing these stocks don't trade publicly
because if they did, it would be super volatile.
But one stock, two stocks that are probably benefiting
off of Anthropics' rise in premium is Amazon and Microsoft. So Amazon and Microsoft have legs in both OpenAI and Anthropics rise in premium is Amazon and Microsoft, right? So Amazon and
Microsoft have legs in both OpenAI and Anthropic, but it was good to see a little bit of upside in
its balance sheet from the stake that they do have in the company. But at the end of the day,
I feel like everyone's going to win this situation, right? Like competition's healthy. I think
competition's healthy. If you had a monopoly here, then I don't think you really see much progress in terms of trying to get
better.
Competition will be able to supply that growth for both companies in order to
make their models a lot better.
So that's why competition is generally healthy in any environment.
All right.
So what else do we got here?
I did talk about that.
All right.
So I think that really wraps it about it.
I mean, the markets are just chopping back and forth here, guys.
I wouldn't really pay too much attention to the intraday moves in the market.
In my opinion, you saw the move this morning, and then you saw the move that happened shortly
after the morning started where the market went green.
You're kind of chopping around here.
I wouldn't be surprised if we're just going to basically stay in a massive range for this
whole week. You know, and the range is pretty big. Like you already had the beginning of theping around here. I wouldn't be surprised if we're just going to basically stay in a massive range for this whole week. And the range is pretty big. You already had
the beginning of the week over here, kind of setting the upper part of the range
and now you have like a 1.5% range to play
with on the queues and SPY is probably just
going to, yeah, just recover the 100-day moving average over here and this is pretty important to
sustain this 100-day moving average. And yeah, I mean, I feel like this is just going to yeah just recover the 100 day moving average over here and this is pretty important to sustain this 100 moving day average and yeah i mean i feel like this is just going to continue to
bounce back and forth here so i wouldn't really try to get too involved in this one
um just keep doing your research and uh keep trying to find the stocks that are going to win
in the long term um i i would like to find another one i would like to find one of these guys but
unfortunately i didn't get in on that one.
I wish I had,
but yeah,
we will see.
We will see guys.
All right.
So that does it about it for today.
We have a few earnings reporting this week.
Actually,
let's go ahead and bring up the earnings calendar over here.
Right.
So we have VG reported this morning and next decade reported this morning.
And those stocks just like ripped to the upside. I think this is, of course, it has to do with
their earnings. Actually. Oh, wow. Next decade did pull back quite a bit from its high in the
morning. Actually, no, that's a weekly chart. No, that is a daily chart.
So I'm looking at the chart over here.
I don't want to bring it up.
I just want to keep this open.
Yeah, it dropped about 12% from its high today.
VG is still up pretty high back of the 200-day moving average.
So congratulations if you've gotten VG there.
Echo Star reported earnings this morning.
They didn't really – yeah. I i mean they're up like two percent uh norwegian cruise like to put it this morning so
after close you're gonna have asd space mobile reporting big bear ai archer credo is reporting
riot actually right reported last week i thought mongodb is reporting another software stock, Plug Power, Qubt.
You have Alistair.
LiDAR Technology is reporting as well.
Oh, yeah, my bad.
This is a little too small to read for you guys.
All right.
And tomorrow morning, you have Target.
C Limited is reporting.
That's actually pretty interesting to set up the C limited is having into earnings. I do wonder what's going to happen here.
If a C limited,
massively rallies tomorrow after pulling back pretty decently today.
let me check something real quick.
And CLH.
they're down 10%. That sucks.
They just gave up all that move.
battery technologies reporting tomorrow.
CrowdStrike tomorrow afternoon.
Oh, that's going to be an interesting one to watch.
GitLab, QSI, a bunch of other stuff as well.
Wix reports Wednesday morning.
Oh, Amber Crabbe and Fitch is reporting.
I wonder, is that the Sydney Sweeney one america yeah that is a sydney sweeney
what no is it no i mean maybe it is i think they had a split they might have a reverse split i is A&F,
Amber Crombie,
American Eagle,
that was one.
Yeah,
this is Amber Crombie and Fitch,
so that's not the one.
Genie's reporting,
da, da, da, da.
Oh, Broadcom is reporting Wednesday afternoon.
That's going to be an interesting one.
We'll see what happens
if they,
hopefully they come back
in that one.
Okta is reporting, Webull is reporting, reporting another quantum computing stock. RGTI is reporting
JD on Thursday morning. Uh, not really much Victoria's secrets. Uh, Thursday afternoon
is going to be interesting. One cost reporting, Sam Sara, Marvel technology is going to be
reporting. I wonder what Marvel is going to do as well. I might take a look at that one actually.
And then, yeah, that's, that's basically it for the rest of the week.
All right, guys.
So that about does it for today's stream.
Really appreciate you guys for joining this one.
If you didn't get a chance, go ahead and subscribe to the Wolf underscore financial YouTube channel.
Check that out.
Or you can check out my channel as well.
You guys already know what that is.
And go ahead and watch the Zeta interview with the CEO.
That was a very good time. Looking forward to doing more interviews with other CEOs of other
companies. So I'm going to be doing some reaching out on my own. I do enjoy doing these and some
other figures in Wall Street as well. Definitely understand why Ahmed and Steve enjoy doing these
interviews with a lot of these famous people. It is very interesting to hear if like the human
perspective, like these people are still human right they're not they're not mechanical
robots that don't exist in real time like these are these are human beings it is good to hear
uh it's good to hear the other side of it that you usually don't hear in wall street and also
like they're thinking how they came up their company the background and stuff that's something
you don't usually hear and i want to bring that more to you guys so really appreciate you guys
