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Spill The Alpha #5 Trading Crypto & Tradfi w/ @LSDinmycoffee
Recorded: April 25, 2025 Duration: 1:29:00Space Recording
Short Summary
In a recent discussion, crypto enthusiasts explored the latest trends in trading, highlighting Bitcoin's price surge, the launch of innovative projects like BearChain's Omnichain deposits, and the importance of community support in trading. As traders adapt their strategies to both crypto and TradFi markets, the conversation underscored the significance of mental discipline and collaboration in achieving success.
Full Transcription
Thank you. Thank you. Hey everyone, I'm going to give it a couple of minutes to join.
There we go.
Hey, Krillin, what's up?
Hey, good afternoon, brother.
How's it going?
I can't hear you well.
Can you hear me now?
Yes.
Okay, nice.
I just felt you were replying and I just couldn't hear your reply.
Yeah, it can be buggy sometimes.
Yeah.
But hopefully we'll have a smooth ride.
How's it going, man?
How's the jet lag?
Pretty terrible, actually. smooth ride how's it going man uh how's the jet lag uh i'm pretty terrible actually don't really
want to get into details but i got very very much sleep deprived for the past three four days uh
i start last night very early slept 10 hours woke up with a horrible headache but it's it's better
just now so all right good to hear good Good to hear. So thanks for doing this.
I know it's pretty rough, but thank you for doing this, man.
No, it's okay.
My pleasure to be here.
Yeah.
Actually, we had an episode before, both with you and Pierre.
That's right.
It's not your first time on the show, but this time it's going to be a little bit uh more
focused on you and uh your journey and uh in crypto and everything else all right we're going
to give it a couple more minutes for people to join in we have uh we have btc pumping
really nice to see green candles again
oh well yeah for sure for sure um not really not not exactly surprised but yeah um
i haven't got much of the move to be honest
i was um on vacation in china so i was i was i was long um I was long from 83k close most of it at 90.8
I was along on some other altcoins which all did well but then I I had most of my
um take profits orders hit while I was flying and then since then i've been pretty much having some rest
trying not to get to get too much uh destroyed by the jet lag and sleep deprivation and i'm
slowly getting back into markets today yeah i had a bunch of uh take profits are on 90.8 as well
which is like the the weekly and daily ranges for me the range lows and i had more
around uh like i have a little bit higher around 95 96 which is like the middle of that range
and hopefully today i'm gonna get some more fills but yeah we'll see about that um before we jump
into the questions and further discussions um i want to welcome everyone to the second season of
spill the alpha this is episode number five we have Krillin here today with us thanks for coming
Krillin thanks for having me hi everyone hey hey and we hope you guys enjoyed this episode I'm sure
it's going to be pretty fascinating we're going to be talking both about crypto and about TratFi
which is kind of unique because not a lot of
people on cd actually trade trad fi uh if you don't follow krillin uh you definitely should
go make sure to check out his profile i've been following him i believe i followed you on on like
the first couple of weeks when i joined ct back in like 2019 or 2020. so, so I was... 2019 is where I really started to
post a lot of content.
Yeah, yeah. And I remember...
If I remember correctly, I reached
a thousand
followers in
February 2019.
So that means you've been
really early. Yeah.
I followed you... I think you had like
sub-10k followers back then
which is it's crazy to see you now like 150k oh yeah that's massive i i still can't believe people
uh there's that many people uh i know right what i write especially you know uh I'm mostly a reply guy and shit poster.
And I do think I post good shots and I have pretty good takes on the market,
but these are like 10% of my tweets.
I'm mostly a reply guy overall.
So sorry for people who have me on notifications.
Dude, you're not even the the bad case because like i'm 99
shitposting and reply guy and like one percent talking about markets and setups and stuff like
that and you know sometimes i look at myself i'm like why why the hell 50 000 people follow me
but uh but yeah it's it's it's definitely nice, guys, if you don't follow Pierre,
make sure to give him a follow.
He's a great addition to the timeline,
both good shitposting and a lot of charts as well,
so that'll be a good addition for your timelines.
And just a reminder, the space will be recorded,
and on the bottom right corner, you have a chat box icon.
You can click on it at any time,
and if you have any questions to us
just click there and leave them and we'll touch them towards the end of the episode i see we
already have one reply of somebody saying volume is really low uh there's nothing we can do about
it that's just the default volume of spaces you'll have to crank up the volume on your end
and before we jump to the questions i want to thank Kuma for hosting these
spaces now live on BearChain. And actually yesterday, we just launched Omnichain deposits.
You can deposit from literally any, almost any chain online, Ethereum and a bunch of others.
So make sure to check that out. If you haven't already, you can click on my profile. There's a ref link at the bottom of my profile,
and you can get 10% off of fees.
Trade with up to 50x leverage on majors and 20x leverage on altcoins.
And we currently have a weekly prize pool of $25,000.
So this is basically equivalent to,
like you're getting like 3,000% cash back on the fees that you pay.
It's actually pretty insane
because the volumes are pretty low because it's a new platform. So you can go ahead, enjoy that,
and you can claim your rewards daily. So yeah, make sure to check that out.
And now that's done. Krillin, I want to go back to you. So first of all, I don't really know much
about your start. Last time we had an episode together, we didn't really discuss that. So first of all, I don't really know much about your start. Last time we had an
episode together, we didn't really discuss that. So tell me a little bit about your background.
How did you actually get into crypto and at what point did you start trading TradFi?
Which one was first?
So my background was initially software engineering.
Doesn't really have anything to do with trading. But my hobbies were, like when I was at university,
I would definitely spend a lot more time playing
Starcraft and poker than studying.
And eventually these two, poker and Starcraft,
these were, these helped immensely with the right mindset
to have when you're trading.
They're both, you know, incomplete information games,
which is basically what I consider trading to be.
I got interested in crypto pretty early uh often mention how for example i like how bitcoin
was used to bypass uh visa and mastercard blocking donations to wikileaks things like that so i've
always been attracted by the idea of censorship resistant money but back then I was basically living
in China and unless you had I guess some right OTC contact was basically impossible to be
buying crypto so I tried in 2014 didn't manage to uh and then i moved back to europe in 2015. i found a quite high-paying job so i was
kind of not seeking that much about it anymore and and then i basically forgot about it for a while
uh you know well i just come back to europe after living five years in china so that
meant you know new life new habits new new everything uh so really investing and things
like that were not my immediate focus and then a very good friend of mine in summer 2017
tell me hey bro i made a ton of money uh on neo it's the chinese ethereum you guys you
know it was such a big narrative back then yeah and it doesn't even matter it's just
he said crypto is gonna be big you're gonna love it this is definitely for you this is a good
friend of mine who knows me well and i was like all right, let's put 5K into it just to see how it goes.
So I deposited 5K on Kraken.
And I started to do a little bit of research.
I started to look at charts.
And, you know, if you're familiar with the price action on altcoins in 2017,
basically the entire year was a huge alt season so you know i didn't sing twice i was like all right
looks like everything is going up so i just need to uh to buy 500 of 10 different coins
and there's at least going to be one of them that goes x100 so you know it's
just like some i just need to do some educated gambling and i'm going to make money for sure
so basically as soon as i bought my uh my first uh what was that i think i i bought a cerium i
bought a cerium and kraken and then i used that with the intention of buying shitcoins.
So from day one, I was a true shitcoiner,
which is a bit weird considering that initially,
I was interested in Bitcoin.
But yeah, from day one, I was a shitcoiner.
So I bought 10 different shitcoins.
I remember the first one being I iota and beach phinex
and then i was like okay uh i'm gonna make it it seems pretty easy you know looking at just
how alcolons had been going up non-stop in 2017 and obviously uh so that was in like August 2017 and by November I had already lost I don't know I think like 70 or 80 percent of my account into the legendary alt season of December 2017
and then you know what happens next oh my god I'm such a genius yeah I'm such a genius. I'm such a genius. So you know, you start asking
relatives to invest, hey, guys, look at this. This is the
future. Oh, wow, we're all gonna make so much money together.
And obviously, that ended up the exact up. And I was pretty much
everything in 2018. But the good news in all that is despite uh falling for the typical you know the typical
you know uh well it's what happens to everyone uh i'm a genius into i'm a dunbas it's like the the the typical dunning kruger effect and despite all that
i knew trading was was somehow for me uh you know i i just just like i love poker and
think starcraft it was just it was just a game that was that was just just right for
me i just needed to figure out what to get good at it this this ended up being the difficult part It was just a game that was just right for me.
I just needed to figure out where to get good at it.
This ended up being the difficult part.
So I don't know if you want me to get more into detail on that or more questions,
but that's basically how I started with crypto.
Yeah.
The biggest thing that it took me back when you spoke about NEO and being like the chinese ethereum it was such a huge narrative i remember i was even i was talking to like a family
member of mine and i told him that i bought bitcoin and ether he was like hey why are you
buying bitcoin and ether dude you should buy neo it's only like i don't know it was like ten dollars
or something like a couple of dollars or something like that, I think.
It's much less than that because there's billions of people in China and this is like Chinese Ethereum.
I know, but what's really funny is that this sort of narrative, it never really ended because then we had ICX as the Korean Ethereum. And for the next five years, pretty much,
it was all about finding the Ethereum killer.
And nothing actually managed to kill and stop Ethereum
until we basically stopped looking for an Ethereum killer
and so then that came. And it's pretty much when we stopped looking for an Ethereum killer and so then I came.
It's pretty much when we stopped looking for Ethereum killers that Ethereum
got kicked.
So you started transitioning more into
taking trading seriously
and full-time around 2018-2019,
right?
I wasn't full-time back then.
It's just
what happened is in 2018, I started to, you know, I just had to accept the humiliation,
you know, of not being the genius I thought I was at the top of the season. So there was this sort of grief period
that you have to go through and accept that maybe you're
not a genius.
But I still love the game.
And I consider myself with above average intelligence.
So I was like, if so many people can do it, why can't I?
And so I just started to work really hard on that and on top of that um
you know i was i was starting to enjoy less and less my uh my job my real uh 95 job so
this looked like trading could be the perfect exit the perfect alternative so
that meant i was extremely motivated to learn how to trade so how long did it take you to start
feeling like you're getting the hang of things and starting to turn a profit um was there like
a big moment that made you say,
okay, I can do this for a living.
I can just focus on this.
I think very early, just as I was explaining,
my plan would eventually turn this into my main activity. I just didn't know how.
I just, you know, as someone with Asperger,
I had the typical lack of self-confidence.
So it wasn't easy at all.
So I just decided to, and I had a pretty high paying job.
So I was both in a rush and not in a rush at the same time. And 2018 was absolutely brutal.
So for people who don't know,
back then you could pretty much
only buy altcoins on spot, on BTC pairs.
And obviously that was long on,
you could only short Bitcoin and Ethereum on on platforms
like BitMEX and that was basically it so yeah the idea is I was trying to make money by going
long on everything was also BTC pairs like there was no and it was everything was also BTC pairs
so when BTC goes down it's like ads goes down go go down against BTC and BTC goes down, it's like ALT goes down against BTC and BTC goes down.
So ALT basically just nuke against Bitcoin.
Even worse than what happened in the past few months just before this bounce.
It was just absolutely brutal.
And so basically, I was a trader, an aspiring trader, trying to learn trading.
And at the same time, I could only go long on assets that would go down on me.
So you can imagine how hard it is.
And it's very difficult to know if, do I suck?
Am I still doing everything wrong like I was before?
Or maybe I'm getting better, but the market is just that awful?
You know, just imagine having to go long only on a market
that goes down only.
It's just extremely difficult.
So it made that a very, very weird learning phase,
because you never really know if you're getting better or if it's
just the market that's impossible to trade.
How long? And as for the learning curve, I would say,
don't expect to have your learning curve, you know, slowly grind
up. It's more like you try
things for a while you test them you don't know if they work and suddenly you have a breakthrough
and and then you've you've made a step so it's like it's like I would say with training your
learning curve should look like just like stairs basically
and what's what's difficult is to not lose motivation when you're basically when your learning curve is just going flat going flat going flat you you need you need to keep going
and eventually you make a breakthrough and then and then you know it's like it's like how it's basically like like
leveling up in an RPG game yeah you know you grind you grind you grind up level up then you
grind you grind you grind level up that's how it goes yeah it's not it's not a linear path
not at all yeah so how long do you think it took you from the moment that you started to play around
and trade stuff?
I started to have a good grasp of things by the end of 2018.
So that was like a little bit less than a year and a half.
I was starting to really understand how to read read charts how to pay attention to stuff like
um there's so much to learn now that now that i think about it there is so much that so much that
you need to know about you know like they like i don't know beginners they tend to look too much
at the order book you know they see a buy wall in the other book they're like oh my god by wall
order book you know they see a buy wall in the other book they're like oh my god buy wall
and then you learn to not look at their order book and then two years later you're basically
i don't know reading order flow and stuff like that
so it's like so much knowledge gets accumulated over time so uh yeah but basically, let's say I had good basics and I was able to make some money after a year and a half.
However, I was still suffering from risk management practices, things like that.
So that means I would be able to find good trades.
I would be able to make some money, but I would somehow struggle to keep them to keep it yeah so what
do you feel what do you feel were the biggest challenges in that whole process that you
encountered like while you were turning into the trader you are today oh it's it's it's
definitely it's it's definitely discipline because you know when you work so hard and
you're still not making money,
you eventually end up being very tempted to take shortcuts.
And by shortcuts, I mean, for example,
typically oversize your position to try to make money faster.
And obviously, this doesn't work.
Yeah.
So then that creates more frustration.
And that's not good.
Overall, the experience was painful.
On top of that, in 2019, I still had my job.
So basically, from the moment I started in 2017 to middle of 2019, where I started to go part
time at the office to spend more time on trading.
I was basically doing, you know, 40 hours, 45 hours a week at the office and 40, 45 hours
of crypto on evenings and weekends.
So I had basically no rest, no hobbies for like two years,
which drove the wife crazy.
But that's another topic.
But I mean, that's probably one of the reasons you're here,
right?
Oh, yes.
Yes.
I mean, there's no substitute for the effort you have to put in.
Yeah.
I mean, it's pretty obvious now you think about it like if trading was easy and you could you could just leave make it a living and it was easy
everyone would be doing it there's a reason not everyone is a trader it's just and it is you know
looking looking at it from the outside um i remember myself uh seven years ago before i was
I remember myself seven years ago before I was really, you know, trading seriously or anything.
I was more of an investor just buying crypto and stuff like that.
I was looking at it from the side and, you know, trading looked to me like a perfect job, right?
Like, oh my God, so nice.
You don't have any responsibilities that are too tough.
Like no dealing with customers, no dealing with like anything like that um i really hope one day i'll be able to have that as my like full-time job
and i posted a video a couple of days ago of tom dante talking about uh like uh from one of his old
uh stop uh quit moaning and start improving videos and he was like he was telling about this email
that someone told him like i want to dare to dream to be a trader and everything and he was like he was telling about this email that someone told him like i want to dare
to dream to be a trader and everything and he was talking like listen this is one of the hardest
jobs you'll ever have and you have to work a shitload of hours you have to work so so hard
and only then maybe there's a chance that you're gonna make it and you're actually gonna be one
of the profitable people yeah i mean it's like it's just like the meme it's like you you quit you want to
quit your nine five be ready to do a 24 7 instead it's that dude it's so funny every single time
i see someone making fun of like people working a nine to five on the timeline I'm like dude we're out here
working 24 you know like working 18 hours a day sleeping for six and then we wake up just to go
back to our computer well it got better now uh it got much better over time yeah but yeah
the first couple years the first couple years the amount of work was insane
uh i almost burned out a couple times yeah i'm gonna lie um like during the bull market
no no i mean for example uh at the end of uh of 2019 when bitcoin went from uh 6k to 3k
2019 when Bitcoin went from 6k to 3k.
Imagine like an entire year of bear market and when you think it's finally over Bitcoin
goes minus 50% in just like a week and altcoins lose another 80%.
That's how brutal it was so it's like it's like imagine what
crypto did from uh february to uh to end of march sorry from from january 25 to to the end of march
imagine that but for an entire year and then at the end of the year when you think it's over
year and then at the end of the year when you think it's over bitcoin is another 50 can you
imagine that yeah so for sure for sure i got i got i had a bit max account but that was that
was mostly using for uh for practicing practicing i was i it was it was no huge amount of money
it was it was mostly used to practice strategies and stuff like that.
But I had x20 that BitMix account.
And I got liquidated on Cardano on that day.
That's rough.
So luckily, it was not a big amount of money, but it was still like a month of my salary
at the office.
So it was still frustrating.
Part of the game.
Part of the game.
How many of us have called BitMEX liquidation with called that tuition fees?
It's exactly what it was.
Yeah, 100%. and like there is
no trader that starts and just is good at it like it will take you time and you have to practice
with real money you have to put money on the line and and you will lose money inevitably it's it's
so unlikely for you to make money as a beginner that like you just have to make sure like the
only real thing you need to do when you're just starting out and clicking buttons is just make sure you're
not burning the last dollar you have that's it you know yeah yeah and uh basically you
need to consider your capital is a source of income so you if you destroy the capital
then then it's over yeah if you're out of the chips, you got to leave the casino.
But so from your experience, because you are taking part in The Haven and we will discuss that later on, but from your experience just educating and working with people, both on
Twitter and in The Haven group, what do you feel like are the most common and reoccurring issues that most of the beginner traders have?
Oh, that's a very broad question. And even I would say the most obvious answer is FOMO.
But even FOMO is there are so many aspects to FOMO.
Many people think FOMO is just, you see a big green candle and you start market buying.
That might be the most obvious and dumbest way to describe FOMO.
I mean, it's definitely a thing, but there are so many ways more much more um much less obvious uh
you know i would say insidious uh forms of crypto like for example some people who can't sit on their hands uh people who are over trading people who
who oversize at the right time they're all they're all different sorts of fomo and even even today
it still it still happens to me i i still somehow somehow maybe snakes sometimes sometimes i i don't know uh on some assets on
which i have i may have a bearish bias it happened for example sometime it was it cost me a lot of
money at the end of 2023 when i first uh started to trade Trat5,
I had a bearish bias on SPX at the end of 2023.
I just kept shorting the SPX, usually with bad entries.
And I ended up being right at the beginning because SPX was indeed retracing.
And then I somehow got stuck in that bias and every time
spx would start to to dump a little bit i would just market short it and and then early 2024 it
started if i remember correctly i think it was early 2024 it started to reverse. And I would keep shorting bounces.
And yeah, I would say that might be a different issue, maybe
getting stuck in the bias.
But the reality, it was some sort of FOMO
because I would start seeing a small dump on low time frames.
And I was like, oh, what if it dumps hard now?
And I would just smash the the sell button i would i would making it i
was making again in pratify the mistakes i used to uh making crypto yeah yeah and but again it's
it's very described it's very difficult to describe because here uh just from this example you can see
it wasn't it was just just fomo being the issue it was a combination of fomo and being stuck in in a
bearish bias for no specific reason um so very often and of course at the same time i guess i
was lacking discipline because i knew better i knew from being a profitable trader in crypto
that i shouldn't be making such mistakes but i was the discipline i had on crypto had not
yet translated uh to try to fight so it was like a mix of discipline stuck in a bias and fomo uh
very often your mistakes they're just like they're uh multifaceted you know yeah do you feel like
when people transition from one market to the other, it's very likely that they will experience almost like going a couple of steps, not a couple, but a lot of steps back in their learning curve and self-control and stuff like that?
I don't know.
My personal transition to Trans5 went really bad at the beginning and then very well later on.
and then very well later on.
I think everyone's different.
I think everyone's different.
Maybe I was a bit impatient since I was being a profitable trader
on crypto for several years.
I probably was a little bit overconfident when I joined Tratify,
especially from observation and backlisting.
I was seeing that the usual system I use in crypto and strategies I use in crypto
seemed to be working quite well on TrotFi.
So I probably was overconfident and it took me too long to realize
I probably shouldn't have been that confident.
Now I would say it's still important to know the behavior of the assets you're trading.
Like eventually I ended up in 2024 day trading a lot of the SPX index.
And then you start realizing SPX is just, it's fantastic for day trading because it likes to do butt up, butt down.
Yeah.
It's very clean.
It's very by the book. it's super clean it's super clean
and so the price action is is slightly different from bitcoin so you need you need to figure that
out you need to notice this and and make some adjustments that is for sure um
you know in the book Alpha Trader, which
is one of my favorite trading books,
the author Brent, he says a good trader
needs to be a master at the markets he's trading.
And I think that's true.
I tried to trade oil and natural gas for a while.
I got pretty bad luck with this one
because actually I had two good trades at the very beginning,
which made me think, oh, okay, it's not that different.
So probably I can trade these assets just like I trade the rest.
And then I got something ridiculous, like seven losses in a row.
And I'm like, all right, there are some subtleties I do not understand about these assets.
And rather than spending time to learn these specificities,
it probably makes more sense to just stay focused on the markets that are already mastered.
Yeah, 100%.
I feel like a lot of people, especially in crypto,
where there's so many tickers, so many different stuff.
If you have a Binance account, you can instantly trade,
I don't know, like 1,000 tickers on perps.
When I speak to someone who's asking for advice or is a beginner,
I always tell them, just trade Bitcoin and maybe Ether for two months.
Just these two. That's it.
Don't touch anything else.
Just try to trade those
two fine and then
maybe add something to it.
That's an approach.
Sometimes what I also
tell people is
if you
have a list of assets that is too small and you don't have setups for a while
as per your system it it might make you it might it it might tend to force you to trade takes that
shouldn't have been taken on the other hand what you could do is since you have a system that works on crypto, instead
of forcing trades on just Bitcoin and Ethereum arbitrarily, you could just scan 100 coins
and only take the right setups.
I think knowing the kind of assets you're trading is important. But to be frank,
most altcoins, they will work the same way. They will trade the same way. So from the
moment you have enough experience in crypto, you should try to take advantage of the fact
we have so many tickers available. often people you know they start seeing for example
random example uh for example yesterday uh sweep pumped a lot so what what's tempting is all right
I'm going to try to find a low time frame entry to uh keep uh to long sweet because it's a very
trending one and they've got the trade on that why because
somehow they had decided okay sweet is doing good so i'm going to pick a trade on that why
what you should be doing is scan all the coins and see okay this one doesn't pop yet maybe it's a
laggard maybe i shouldn't be playing laggards with Bitcoin approaching resistance.
So maybe I'm not going to take that one.
Oh, this is a coin that has already showed strengths
but has a big gap to fill above.
OK, I'm going to put a color flag in TradingView.
And I'm going to add it to my watchlist.
And then I'm going to keep scanning.
And I might spend a few hours to make a short list of coins.
And then after that, I'm going to look at them again.
I'm going to take in consideration various things.
And eventually, I will pick the absolute one or two best
setups out of maybe the hundred coins I looked at I think I think having
a long list of tickers is is a privilege but yeah um I do get what you mean saying trade only
Ethereum and Bitcoin at the beginning it's just you know beginners they tend to not be very patient
they don't like to sit on their hands.
So if you give them only two assets,
if you give them only two assets,
what's going to happen is eventually they're going to lose patience
and they're going to enter before getting the right setup.
This is what's going to happen.
Yeah, 100%.
So just moving away from that subject a little bit,
what made you transition to TradFi?
Because you've been focused on crypto for, what, five, six years?
Yeah, well, so basically I started to trade TradFi in 2023.
So I've been already trading crypto for like six years.
Well, there are multiple reasons first of all um
already by 2020 2021 yeah it already started in 2020 i started to uh be interested in macroeconomics
see how um well see how crypto and other assets interact with uh with macroeconomics and the truth is i just love to learn things and
and i i found i found this a very very interesting topics topic so i just got interested in that and so i started to you know chart the xy uh chart the spx i wasn't trading it yet because i
had no um no broker account on track for for try fight but i was starting to observe how a crypto
market would have correlation or inverse correlation um when sometimes uh the correlation would break and we would see asset we would see decoupling
things like that and yeah I found like macroeconomics geopolitics very very interesting
topics so eventually I was I was bound to trade trade fight at a moment or another
yeah and then and then at the end of 2021 uh I remember there was myself, there was Pentoshi, there was Expo. We started to warn
people about how the Fed hiking rates was a big thing. It was not a joke. It was something
to really consider. And it marked the top at the end of 2021. And from there i was basically convinced oh wow wow maybe yeah i was right to pay attention
to that and it just it just comforted my opinion that you know this this is something not to be
overlooked and and eventually i started to open transfer accounts uh another reason is i had
started to become um a gold bull as well in 2022 uh i had been
accumulating physical gold and i was like yeah okay physical is good but i might actually want
to trade these on lower time frames uh or at least swing it with some leverage and yeah so
i ended up opening a trade fire account and then I already talked about the transition. Transition went really bad at the beginning
and then eventually it went really well.
So, yeah.
Do you feel like trying out
trading TradFi is something that
most traders that trade crypto should try
doing or...
It depends.
It depends. In my case,
the main reason was
I found it fascinating it's just you know
uh i i enjoyed watching markets i enjoyed economics i enjoyed geopolitics i enjoyed all that kind of
things so it made perfect sense to me i i did it because it was interesting uh you know at some point flipping coins in in
the bear market in 2022 it kind of gets boring i mean once in a while you have some some advanced
you had you had the blue that crashed so you get a little bit of excitement but at the same time
you know what it kind of suggests hey what if crypto dies i I'm currently my main source of income is trading crypto.
What happens if crypto disappears? Maybe it would make perfect sense to learn to trade other markets.
So it was a combination of, you know, I would say getting bored by, you know know liquidity drying up during the bear market
the fact i loved everything around stratify and it was fascinating and at the same time it was
it was a really good backup solution you know um i got a little bit of anxiety i'm you probably
guess from my tweet i'm sometimes a little bit pessimistic about the world and you know as like justifiably so yeah yeah probably and i was like yeah it would really
make sense to me to learn how to try to fight but honestly if you're doing well with crypto
uh stick to crypto only do it why don't you get that and stick to it yeah yeah yeah it's it's
and on top of that it's not necessarily gonna make you better you know it's like it's like let's say
i don't know uh you're a prof you want to get better at swimming and you're liking cardio and
you're like oh instead of swimming more i'm gonna start cycling at home to improve my cardio yeah
more, I'm going to start cycling at home to improve my cardio.
Yeah, maybe it could work.
Maybe it could help.
But maybe if you just want to have more endurance,
more stamina swimming, just keep swimming more.
It's the same thing.
So I mean, I trade TradFi as well.
I do it more in like I i have a swing strategy uh trading strategy
in uh uh in tradfi uh like in intro week swings um and i did try uh intraday stuff but then i like
like you said i realized myself that i'm i'm doing well with bitcoin so i'll just stick to that
there is no reason at as of this moment at least there is no
reason for me to you know spread around and spend time looking at something else as well um you know
again if if like you said if if liquidity dries volatility drops things become really boring you
know that's the time that i'm gonna start looking to the sides and look for something new, 100%. Yeah. I would say it's always, it all boils down to very few things. The first one is,
do I have an edge doing what I'm doing now? Do I have an edge training this market at this time frame yes or no uh if no if the answer is no is do i think i can
develop an edge over time and if if yes then how much time and if would with that time not be better
spent getting better on crypto and and then um if you want to to do that well in the long run you need to enjoy it
so do i actually enjoy taking this type of trade on trotify and the answer has to be yes
and and it's just it's just those things it's just do i have an edge and do i enjoy it if not then
just just just give up move on just just like for example when i started to trade uh oil and natural gas uh after like like like 10 trades i was like all right i i gotta be honest
i do not have an edge trading oil and gas and probably the time required for me to actually
have an edge on this market would be better spent elsewhere so i'm just gonna accept that i i'm
not good at this and and i'm moving on and i never traded all and i took one hour trade since and
that's it and i never traded natural gas again after that dude natural gas me up the ass so hard
there's two things that really
screwed me over in tradfire that's net gas and uh silver i remember i started trading silver
and the lot size on silver contracts is insane i i i do i do think i'm i'm overall from like the
two years i've been trading in tradfire i think i think i'm still overall i think i'm i've lost money and i did catch a lot of good moves on silver but overall i think i've lost
money silver silver is just horror it's so volatile like actually it's pretty volatile and the lot
sizes uh i i was trading the not i think it only has many contracts right it doesn't have a micro contract i think
that depends on your broker right i have some there are some huge contracts on
where i am yeah so i was trading many contracts i believe and i really screwed up the sizing
and i yeah yeah anyways i'm not trading silver ever again. I'm going to stick to gold.
But I want to talk about your trading itself a little bit.
How do you feel that your trading strategies evolved over time?
Like, are there any specific methodologies and tools that you utilize nowadays that you didn't in the past?
Tools, not that much. The strategies have evolved a lot.
Just like, for for example i started becoming
profitable i would say early 2019 where you know after the 2018 bear market we had started to see
some uh some reversal in the crypto market and at the time i was doing two things i was mostly uh
two things i was mostly uh i was i was either scalping on on beatmex on very low time frames
or i would just swing altcoins on the daily charts uh horribly illiquid coins on well on
it's it's funny because we're we're being hosted today uh we've been by uh by kuma which used to be idex and i was one of the i would say the the
idex ogs back then yeah because like in 2019 in in early 2019 i was doing like like two or three
percent of the idex daily volume it's kind of crazy that idex is one of the oldest projects
still around like we're talking way back in early 2000s.
It is.
It is.
It is.
But to be frank, they took so long releasing their perps.
It feels like they got a little bit forgotten.
But I still got much love for the team.
So I do hope the project eventually does well.
It's just a pity that Hyperliquid came in the middle and took the spotlight on decentralized burps.
We're here to put in the work, yeah.
But I hope it works out for them.
So yeah, as I was saying, I was mostly trading altcoins on the daily,
on Binance, on Huobi, and IDEX.
And at the same time, scalping on BitMEX. And then eventually, my account grew.
So trading very illiquid altcoins just
ended up being annoying, especially
in places like Huobi, where you had a lot of volatility,
very thin books.
As your account grows, it ended up not really being
sustainable. And then so I started to do that less and less. At least I had less interest in it
because I couldn't size as much as I would have liked. And then in 2019, I started to day trade more and more Bitcoin on Bybit. It was the beginning of Bybit as well.
And then by 2020, we ended up
having Binance futures, adding more and more altcoin pairs.
And that's where I basically started to really switch to day trading mostly.
That is the main adjustment I had to do.
It was really switching to being a day trader in 2020.
Yeah.
And do you feel that, like, how would you describe your trading?
Is it more PA focused or would you say it's more order flow focused?
No, it's mostly PA.
Order flow, I think. so more order flow focused no it's it's it's mostly pa order flow i think order flow it's probably
something that would be extremely powerful with with the help of the ai but yeah i i'm not
autistic enough to really develop a very strong edge with order flow so i gave that up uh it's
mostly price action i think i think the crypto markets are still not efficient enough so you can still you can still make good money just by by
by uh by reading price action if you manage your risk yeah you can definitely still make good money
so you know it's funny i feel like a lot of traders go through this transitioning period, right?
You start with price action, right? Basic ASAR flips, like candles, naked candles.
Then you start adding a bunch of indicators.
And then at some point you remove the indicators, you start involving order flow.
And then a lot of traders from that point move back to just basic price action.
It's like this journey that
a lot of people pass and i mean nowadays i i i'm not really that good with order flow there's still
a lot of studying i need to do in that field um but you know i used to have a lot of different
things on my charts nowadays i i just it's also about like it's also about how much time you want
to to dedicate it's like do i do i want to stay at the computer and listen to tape all day?
Or do I just want to mark my levels on TradingView in the morning and go do something else for the rest of the day until I get alerts that my levels have hit?
It's also a lot about that.
also a lot about that yeah it's a good way of putting it so okay so so trading um tools and
Yeah, it's a good way of putting it.
and you know and stuff like that and strategies aside how do you manage this psychological aspect
of trading um you know just dealing with the stress of it maintaining the discipline um you
know dealing with volatility it never gets it never gets it never gets easy it never gets easy
it never gets easy it never gets easy it's just just after enough time you start getting wiser
and you know what works and what doesn't so a lot of the stress usually it has to do with um
with oversizing over trading so as as time passes you end up learning that over
trading is bad oversizing is bad um i'm slightly risk averse as well so
it it just naturally ends up being less stressful yeah you something i always tell the students in the haven is remember that it's just
another trait the the the wallpaper on on my computer is literally the white background and
there's it's just written in big in all caps at the center of the wallpaper it's just another trade
the center of the wallpaper it's just another trade once once you have accepted that and that
you have accepted that the market gives new opportunities every single day
you see the market differently you feel you feel less fomo you feel um
you definitely feel less FOMO.
You don't start chasing pumps that you've missed.
Everything becomes suddenly just a lot more relaxed.
Now the thing is everyone, I mean, not everyone, but the huge majority of the participants,
they have goals that are not realistic.
Everyone wants to x 20 their accounts in a year.
But I don't know.
My account grows at this point.
My account grows a few percent, sometimes 10% in a month.
I'm happy.
Just remember that the huge majority of the world,
if they earn 4% on their saving account in a year,
they're already happy.
Dude, if I outperform BTC by 10%,
I am super satisfied.
Like super satisfied.
Obviously, we try to aim higher,
but people really put like, like oh i want to 10x
in a year which which in crypto signs kind of like i've done it sometimes i've that's insane
but like i've done it multiple times i've i have 10x like futures account you know you deposit you
deposit 10k and and you 10x it even Even at the beginning of our discussion,
I told you had X20 a BitMEX account in summer 2018.
So it's definitely doable.
JOHN MUELLER 1-100% doable.
But it's a crazy target.
JOHN MUELLER 1-is it sustainable?
Is it going to fry your brain?
Well, those are other things you need to consider.
And more importantly is, can you actually scale?
Because turning 1K to 10K is not the same as turning 1 million
into 10 million.
JOHN MUELLER, yeah.
Sizing can be an edge as well.
I can tell you the seven figures have is a sink.
Oh, 100%. But
I feel like one of the most important things
you mentioned, at least to me,
is that phrase of
it's just another trade.
One of the best interviews that I love,
I watch it literally once a month,
well, once every couple of months.
It's the chat with traders with John Moulton, John Rambo,
who's a really famous trader in Australia,
and that's one of the things he focuses on.
He was repeating it a couple of times in the interview,
saying it's just another trade.
You have to let it go, study from it, and move on.
And if you're not going to be able to release it
you're doomed it's just a risk yeah and it's it's it's it's bad in so many aspects because you know
if you can't accept that then you're going to keep following uh you're going to keep getting
mad about that you missed can you hear me sorry i think i i unplugged yeah yeah yeah i can hear you you're
gonna keep fumoing you're gonna keep um like ruminating about about trades i i was discussing
this with some students in the haven uh this morning again uh you're gonna keep ruminating
about a trade you missed and you're gonna think about that all day uh and then what
happens you're going to be like i want i want to be right i missed my entry but i want to be right
that that's another very important point is too many people want to be right
which which eventually leads to the other famous trading proverb do you want to be right or do you
want to make money uh so the problem is if you can accept that it's just another trade you're going to be like oh i want to be right on this asset so either you took
either you took a stupid stop during the night because you were oversized and your stuff was too
tight either uh you you didn't want to pull the trigger and then it ended up pumping without you
it doesn't matter but what's going to happen is that it's going to lead to revenge trading,
which is another very bad thing that you absolutely need to eliminate.
It's a horrible thing that you need to eliminate.
So, yeah, it's just another trade.
It helps you cure FOMO.
It helps you cure revenge trading.
It helps you being more focused
because obviously if you if you spend if you wake up getting stuffed out and and being mad about that
or being mad because you missed the bump the whole morning you're going to keep thinking about that
and you're not going to be focusing on the next good trade so it's like you you're going to be
compounding losses instead of compounding wins.
That's how harmful it is to your long-term profitability.
It takes you out of the zone.
You start being emotional.
And the moment you're emotional, you have to step out.
You have to just leave everything, stop whatever you're doing,
because it's just going to be a downward spiral that will take you so many steps back and and we've all experienced it i've experienced it myself
and you know i feel like one of the most important skills that you know i i can i almost even would
say that it's an edge for longevity and crib in trading is to really know yourself well and understand at what state are you in oh
absolutely absolutely uh angry or not do i need to stand up to stand up and leave my computer for
today or do i keep trading yeah i i learned i learned a lot of things about myself when trading
i learned more about myself in a couple of years of trading during the rest of my life.
I'm not exaggerating.
Yeah, that's real.
Yes.
And I would say it's very important to...
I wrote a few very big psychology articles in The Haven about that, about self-awareness.
This is something extremely important because you know you're at a computer you're staring at charts you get this sort of
tunnel vision uh you're being emotional without realizing you are being emotional um and you
start taking decisions and the truth is truth is you should just literally step away
from the computer and do something else.
But it's extremely hard.
You've just taken some losses.
You felt compelled to make it back as soon as possible.
It's really easy to go and tilt
and just make a bunch of garbage decisions.
That's why training will always be difficult you know no matter where you might have you might have a good system you might
have decent discipline but sometimes you could just take a couple days to undo month of words
and that's that's that is that is the trap you should not fall into.
Yeah, well said.
What advice do you feel that you would give your younger self
or someone listening to the space that is a beginner in trading
or having some issues, like whatever?
Give me a few seconds to think about that
because they might be good candidates.
I'd say the best advice would probably be
just take it easy.
Grow at your own pace.
Everyone's different.
You know, you go on CT,
you see people
swinging
seven, eight, sometimes nine
figures positions.
You're like, wow, I want to get there.
And you're tempted to take
shortcuts. But the truth is
everyone's different. No one has the same
tolerance to risk. No one has the same's different no one has the same tolerance to risk
no one has the same intelligence no one has the same discipline and it's pointless to copy you
should you should basically look at what other people are doing to to find some ideas um because
at the beginning that's what i did when i started to trade i had no clue of what i was doing so i
started some people posting charts.
I tried to reverse engineer what they were doing.
What I was not seeing, however, from their charts
is the risk management they were applying.
So I tried to copy some strategies that might have been good,
but I didn't have the risk management practices
that need to go with these strategies.
So it ended up not working and you know
everyone is in a rush to make it so fast and that is that is your your biggest enemy is to try to
rush things uh it's so so take it easy grow at your own pace i would say your your main focus
is to just keep growing your account grow your account slowly but steadily don't try to
don't try to take shortcuts don't try to other size to to save time it's it's just it's just
not gonna work yeah 100 so yeah take it easy guys i was i was talking to someone who was a trader
a couple of uh a couple of months ago.
And I spoke to him and I told him that I've been trading for five years now.
And he told me, oh, that's cool.
I've been trading for 20.
And that just made me realize how, because crypto is so young and perps are relatively young,
we all are still considered relatively beginners in in in the trading world right like
we are we are trading is nothing and like you said people are in such a rush and again it's
because of the ct effect right you open twitter you see people posting like oh i made a million
dollars yesterday but it's just never a good idea to compare where you are and where someone else is
or you know what the what the values and but like you just need to ask yourself are you doing
everything right are you on track to your goals how can you improve and get there in your pace
and you just need to be concerned with your trajectory not with your current placement and
this is i'm reading it from a tweet I wrote a couple of days ago,
which is something that is so important to remember.
It's all about the trajectory, not about your current placement.
Very much.
For example, in my case, I always found
it to be difficult to scale in size. And it turns out, I realized that when
I trade size and it's too big for me, it starts making me emotional again. And then my execution
gets worse. And so I could be trading bigger size, but then I would execute it. I would
execute it not as well. and it would cause some stress
and so i'm like okay fine i'm just going to use smaller size and i'm the money i make trading trading
this current size is already more than enough so if it takes me more more time to get to get retired
and so it's it's all right it's all right i'd rather i'd rather trade smaller size
even though of course some some good friends of mine like like loma are trading insane size and
and i still consider consider it an inspiration um yeah i just i just accept the the reality
yeah the reality is that bigger size makes me emotional so i stick to to the
current size yeah and and and yes it it does mean i i might get stuck longer than expected in that
uh seven figures hell but it is what it is it's better than you know uh forcing bigger size and
actually losing money and i've accepted it and And a lot of people, they can't accept that.
And that's what causes their downfall.
There is like one specific number of sizing.
Every time I cross it, it's like I lose 50 IQ points.
I swear to God.
And I just start doing the dumbest shit I can do.
I'm like taking the dumbest trades I can.
And I just learned that I'm taking the dumbest trades I can and I just learned
that I stay away from that number.
And like you said,
I prefer to make less money
and focus on
something that I know that at least
my expected value is going to be
much better.
Yep.
So a couple of last questions
and before we go to yeah i'm i'm i'm i'm not sure i
i'm not sure i really want to trade in your cup and so we we actually have a little bit more time
if you want to okay perfect so before uh we go ahead i want to remind everyone that uh you can
leave questions uh if you have any on the bottom right corner um so first of all i want to talk
about the haven a little bit um you're taking a part in it um we had pierre with us who's also taking a part of it uh can you tell us a little
bit more about what it is what made you pursue this education on the arc and and everything about it
uh so it's a discord server we are six analysts so there's uh there's uv there's loma there's UB, there's Loma, there's CBS, there's Maine, there's Pierre and myself.
There's a general section for discussions, which are really the community section where people can interact.
They can discuss together.
They can discuss with the analyst.
They can ask questions about the system, about specific trades, about charts and everything.
So these are really the community aspects.
And then each analyst has their own section
where they share educational content, market results, trade IDs.
Could be anything.
Then I have some subsections for TradFi.
I have some subsections for day trading, things like that.
And we have weekly streams.
So it's a healthy mix of education, trade ideas, and community.
Because something that hurt me the most in 2018 was,
I was basically on my own.
I was suffering in silence you know
uh i was i was in the 2018 bear market i was basically losing it all trying to figure out
trading um the wife wasn't very supportive i was i was i was working so hard while bleeding money
at the same time and i was i was doing all that on my own it was horrible so yeah don't trade
alone i would say yeah of course if you can find a group of good motivated friends uh create a small
telegram channel i actually did that originally in 2018 um so you don't necessarily need to join
a paid group you don't have to i I do think a group like the AVEN can
be positive, especially if you can afford it. It can significantly accelerate your learning
curve. So if you can afford it, do it. It's probably a good idea. But more importantly,
do not trade alone. It's very important to bounce ideas with other friends uh there are some there are
some mistakes that if you're alone it might take you months to realize these mistakes and fix these
issues but maybe if you just chat a little bit with a friend about oh what what bad take i took
yesterday your friend is going to be oh you should have never done that for that and that reason
and and you're just going to improve so much faster.
So you don't have to join a paid group,
but please do not trade on your own.
Make some friends, bounce ideas, do that.
I think a lot of us appreciate the whole idea
of having a strong community much more
than people who are joining nowadays
because back then we had nothing like it, right?
Fucking nothing. And that was actually a big motivation for me to join the head. who are joining nowadays because back then we had nothing like it right nothing there was
and there was and that was actually a big motivation for me to uh to join the haven
i never intended to become a paid group leader it's just i i was given the opportunity at some
point and i remember how painful it was to learn everything on my own and sometimes and and it still haunts me today is
you know uh after 2018 i after 2018 bear market i basically have to start from scratch again
uh luckily i remember catching a huge play on quants on idex which basically uh
allowed me to rebuild the portfolio pretty much faster.
But other than that, I was starting from scratch all over again.
And every day I think, oh, what if I had joined a group like The Haven at the end of 2017 and it had helped me keep all my 2017 alt-season gains?
all my 2017 alt season gains, I would have started with a portfolio that would be like
10 times its size when I started to be profitable in 2019.
I might already be retired today, you know?
But I lost so much money learning on my own in 2018 that, yeah, well, a couple of years
lost.
Community, communities, everything. Yes, yes. yes yes all right well there you go if
any of our listeners is interested in the haven you can just go to krillin's bio and check out
the haven there and learn more about it i think if if it's something you can afford if it's something
that you feel like you need in your trading journey i feel like it really is a great addition uh to to you so yeah um so yeah before uh we wrap
things up um first of all we have a question that i'm asking to all of our guests um and i'll be
interested in your perspective on it uh what do you believe making it is? And do you feel like you've made it?
That's an interesting question.
Making it.
I don't know.
I think that's a weird expression.
It can mean many things.
It can mean many things.
To most people, I guess, it means I just have fuck your money.
But to me, it's not um i think something really important i'm going to deviate a little bit from your question because i think it's worse
being said um as a part of your trading career you need to you need to be grateful and it's
not just in trading it's everywhere in life but it's also very good in trading is at some
point i wake up in the morning and i'm like wow i can make a living a good living from home sitting
at my computer blasting my favorite music all day being able to take a break and play with my kids when I want to. Man, I might not have fuck your money.
I might not have retired yet.
But my previous job was driving me crazy.
And now I have a job that I love that earns me good money.
I'm so grateful for it.
So in my mind, I've already made it,
even if that means I haven't reached retirement yet,
the fact I'm struggling to really, really size up
means that it might take me longer, especially, you know,
I'm living in the most expensive country in the world.
So obviously, I could be retired if I was living in Thailand or wherever,
but living in Switzerland,
it's going to take me a little bit longer.
But so, yeah, it depends on your definition of making it.
I would say right now, look at what's happening in the world.
Look at how many people are struggling to keep a job.
So much shit's going on.
If you can already make good money
sitting your ass at your computer while, especially when you're a trader, most of the day, you know, you mark your levels on trading during the morning.
You plan a few trades.
Then I have my routine where I share market source with the haven.
a good chunk of the day is basically
oh I might just
watch a movie on Netflix on one
of my monitor while just
keeping an eye on charts on the
other monitor
you know it's just
that's a good life you know there's no
there's no complaint to have about it
so yeah just be grateful
even if you haven't made fuck your money just consider that you know There's no complaint to have about it. So yeah, just be grateful.
Even if you haven't made fuck your money,
just consider that, you know,
slowly grow your account while enjoying what you're doing.
100%. That's a really good way of putting it.
Yeah.
Yeah.
All right, fantastic.
Well, I'm happy.
You've been uploading a bunch of videos from your office with your kid dancing and having fun and stuff like that.
It's a lot of fun.
Yeah.
He's really funny.
Very often he enters my office.
He looks at the charts and he's like, hey, daddy, are the shitcoins pumping or dumping today?
And he's like four years old.
It cracks me up every time.
Amazing.
All right.
Well, before we wrap things up,
I wanted to know what are your thoughts
about everything going on with Trump right now
and all the tariffs with China?
And just what are your thoughts about the market currently?
It's funny because I anticipated a lot of these things right.
And yet, charts are still what make me take trades.
So I would say, unless, just kind of like what I said about Tratify earlier,
unless you're really interested in geopolitics, macroeconomics and these kind of things, to most people, it's only going to be noise.
So if you have an edge and you're profitable looking at charts,
don't waste your time listening to macroeconomics and stuff like that only focus on a few things like you know uh maybe fed policy
and things like that and the rest is just the rest is just noise it's just noise uh
so for example we had we had a huge capitulation uh following the liberation day
if you started to flip bearish at the bottom because oh my god what trump is
doing trump looks absolutely retarded oh my god this is not gonna end well and i'm gonna start
flipping bearish after the huge capitulation uh this is not going to help you so at the end of
the day the market remains a market.
You see a big panic sell-off.
Regardless of what Trump is saying,
you will end up getting a mean reversion to the upside sooner or later.
This is what you need to keep in mind.
Okay?
Yeah.
That's a good way of putting it. I mean, especially when you said, like,
if you don't have an edge with macro,
you just have to forget about it.
And I really do agree.
Yeah, I mean, I don't think you should entirely forget about it.
Earlier, I talked about the example at the end of 2021
when the Fed cutting rates was very serious thing
and everyone was like, oh, my God, super cycle, super cycle.
We're in the middle of super cycle
and you're talking about
boring things like Fed policy.
Well, suit yourself, bro.
So I wouldn't say completely disregarded,
but it shouldn't be done in an extreme way.
You could follow the Fed policies.
You could follow major macro moves without having to listen to every single Trump interview.
Because these days, people are watching every single Trump interview, hoping that he might say something that may pump their bag and blah, blah, blah.
Well, look where it got you look
look at all the people who were excited to hear trump talk about strategic reserve when bitcoin
i was was at 110k and they got excited by by by trump saying strategic reserve at 109k see where
it got them yeah these people got absolutely destroyed in the past few months.
So, yeah, follow macroeconomics because it does have an impact
on how the markets move at the macro level.
But, yeah, if you're going to listen to every Trump interview,
I'm sorry, you're entering a sad phase of your life you know for me i i don't
like if there's news from trump i'll try to trade the volatility around it but i will not choose a
side based on the news um and you know the only thing i really focus on is the fed stance i feel
like that's one of them yeah that's right that's right that's what you should um but you know we had this period you do you remember like two years ago where everyone was talking
about ppi cpi and all that shit i was like dude what the fuck are you guys doing what the fuck
is this cpi what the fuck is the ppi i don't know i i got mixed feelings about this because especially when like beginning of 2024,
because you're in the beginning of 2024, when I was really day trading SPX a lot,
I got so many good trades with CPI and PPI.
So I got mixed feelings about that.
I would say in general, for most crypto traders, they should not waste their time.
Now, if you're day trading the SPX, it was nice. But lately, with Trump taking
the focus, CPI and PPI, they've become useless again.
There was a period, especially at the beginning of 2024, where PPI and CPI, and even NFP job data and stuff like that, they were just, you know,
again, it had to do with the leading narrative.
When I said focus on the few macro stuff that actually moved the market,
that's exactly what I'm talking about.
For example, in 2024, most of the market was pumping.
Why?
Because the main narrative was the Fed pivot.
It was the anticipation of the Fed pivot.
That was the leading narrative.
So you want to pay attention to that.
And what are the events that could alter the decision the fed's
decision about cutting rates earlier or later it is things like like uh like job data and cpi and ppi
so it made it relevant now we know the fed is getting kind of stubborn we know Trump is moving markets more than anything. So CPI and PPI have become pretty much irrelevant.
Okay.
So same as usual, focus on the leading narratives and ignore the noise.
100%.
Focusing on the leading ones is definitely the thing to do.
Like there's no reason to just waste your time on stuff that are long forgotten.
Yeah. thing to do. There's no reason to just waste your time and stuff that are long forgotten.
Another important thing to look at is, for example,
you could look at when
the leading narrative is
weakening. For example,
at the beginning,
Trump had announced he would
put tariffs in place.
He did it very early
and no one really believed him.
And then he started to look really serious about tariffs,
and then the market nuked.
And every time he opened his mouth about tariffs,
the market pretty the new leg down.
So that means you want to pay a lot of attention to that.
And then in the past few weeks, we
noticed that every time Trump started to talk about tariffs
again, the market was no longer reacting.
And you want to adjust your strategies based on that.
The market no longer reacts to Trump's mentions of tariffs.
Well, take that into account and maybe consider that if the market is no longer dumping on such things thing on such things then maybe it's the right time for me for the mean
reversion to the upside and that's exactly what we got a few weeks later
yeah I mean it's all about observing you know I'm you have to observe how the
market is developing and develop it yeah, sometimes people, they're like, oh, what do you think? But we're not seeing bullish divergences on RSI.
Is the reversal coming?
And I'm like, yeah, maybe forget about your indicators.
Maybe just use your eyes and your brain and common sense,
and it's going to help you more.
Yeah.
So, yeah. help you more. Yeah. So, yeah.
There you go.
All right.
I'm going to touch.
Let's take a look if we have any good questions or anyone.
Not really.
We have Seth saying,
even Japanese CPI came in hot
yesterday and market didn't care.
BTC pumped.
I agree.
OK, there you go.
SEF NELSON- Yeah.
With that, speaking about the specific thing,
JPY and Deck of Japan might become an important narrative
at some point.
But yeah.
Well, there you go.
That's your alpha? SEF NELSON- Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. But yeah. Well, there you go. That's your alpha.
Yeah.
Yeah.
Yeah.
Yeah.
Now, for example, if you've been observing Tratify,
you've seen that USDJPY bounces have been very often leading
SPX bounces, things like that, which kind of suggests
JPY might have a role
to play.
Maybe it's not the right time to get into
that at the end.
We should probably try to
wrap up
this podcast.
But if you do have more questions,
well, let's do this.
That's pretty much it for me, unless you want to
add anything else.
No, no, I don't. Perfect. uh well no that's that's pretty much it for me okay you want to add anything else no no it's all right perfect there you go uh well guys thank you so much for to all of our audience for coming krillin thank you so much for coming mate it's a pleasure yeah you're welcome
thanks for having me yeah yeah thanks thanks for coming i I know you had a pretty stressful time with all the flights and everything.
So, yeah.
Yeah, that's why I'm...
I don't know if I want to...
Normally, I think this is an important Friday,
New York Open, but I don't know.
Sometimes it's okay to miss.
I might just take a nap.
I'm not sure yet.
That's a good idea.
Well, thanks a lot for coming again.
To all of our listeners, make sure to check out
Krillin's profile. Give him a follow
if you don't already.
If you joined in the middle and you missed out
something of this episode, there will be
a recording available right as this episode
ends on the Kuma profile.
And for all
the lazy folks, there will be notes
available as well on Mondayay so uh make sure
to check my account on monday if you're interested on the notes um and yeah before we end the episode
again uh thank you for kuma for hosting these uh the spaces um we are now live on bearer chain you
can deposit from any different chain that you're
using trade with up to 50x leverage we currently are giving out a 25 000 weekly prize pool that
you can claim every single day after trading so yeah make sure to check that out uh really good
rewards i think it's uh it's 30 times the fees that you pay on trading so yeah
there's that um and we have the i'm not sure how i'm not supposed to pronounce that
kumaniacs nft mint which is a kuma nft project we're going to be uh free minting uh no money
required uh you just need to uh have a uh basically to get away this that you just need to
drop the wallet address uh in the comments of the kuma profile announcement so yeah it's a free mint
just cover gas and that's pretty much it's gonna be really high quality really put in some effort
into it not just like a shitty ai generated nft um and yeah just uh some fun nfts if you like nfts and you
want to get a free one make sure to drop your wallet address and the kuma profile announcement
of that nft um and yeah before one last thing uh we will have now an mvp of the week uh is going to
be a real a new thing that we're launching. Basically, people can be active on the Discord or Telegram
and on the profile,
and the team is going to be choosing one member every single week
that has been most active.
And yeah, there's going to be prizes for that.
So yeah, check that out.
If you want to make some extra money, be active on the Discord.
And yeah, that out if you want to make some extra money be active on the discord and uh yeah that's pretty much it and if you didn't use kuma yet uh you can check my profile
there's a link in my bio you can get 10 off of these um and make uh and take a part in the 25 000
prize pool 25 000 uh and yeah that's enough rumbling for me again thank you all for coming so much
thank you krillin for coming wow thanks everyone we uh we spent one and a half hour listening to us
and again make sure to give krillin akuma um follows and check out their profiles and yeah
we'll see you guys next i see we have marusha in the chat. Shout out to Marusha,
who will be joining me next week.
Oh, nice.
Nice.
Another Frenchman.
So yeah, guys, thanks a lot for coming again.
We'll see you guys next week on the next episode. The recording will be available right now
on the Kuma profile.
Notes on Monday on my profile.
And thanks again for coming coming thank you to all of
our listeners thanks securely thanks krillin and have a nice weekend have a nice new cup and
have a nice new cup and have a nice nap goodbye see you mate
