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STOCK MARKET TALK
Recorded: May 8, 2025 Duration: 2:02:45Space Recording
Short Summary
The recent announcement of a trade deal between the U.S. and U.K. has sparked optimism in the markets, with Bitcoin reaching new heights and tech stocks showing strong performance. As discussions around tariff reductions continue, the crypto and tech sectors are poised for significant growth, reflecting a broader trend of recovery and bullish sentiment in the market.
Full Transcription
Thank you. Good afternoon, everyone.
Happy Thursday, May the 8th, with a upmarket, with a lot of news, a lot of things moving,
going on.
We're higher than we were yesterday.
We're higher than we were really the past several weeks, honestly.
You look left on the chart a little bit here.
Some very constructive things happening in the bigger picture.
Of course, the big news today, trade deal announced with the U.S. and the U.K.
We'll get everyone's thoughts on that and everything else going on in this market.
Take a quick peek around as I work on getting our speakers
and panelists up here. Here we are, QQQ up 1.6%, SPY up 1.2%, basically sitting at Friday highs
here on the S&P. IWM's had a really good day, up 2.26%, and the Dow also up just over 1%.
VIX down 5.5% or so, down in the 22s.
Bitcoin also, huge move on Bitcoin.
We saw six figures again.
We are at $101,200 per Bitcoin.
Crypto ripping, markets ripping, everything moving up as the, I guess we'll call it good news. I think
most people would take it as good news. We finally have a trade deal. I mean, that's been a big topic
on these spaces has been, there was no, you know, we had the pause, the 90 day pause and markets
ripped, but we haven't had a trade deal in all of this. And now we finally have the first one,
a few weeks that they said it would take to
actually finalize and sign everything but I guess agreed in principle I don't know if that's kind
of like what we see in the NFL or NBA a lot but we'll see how it goes Evan saw you pop up here
see if you had any words before I jump over to Options Mike to kick us off no I'm good I'm
No, I'm good. I'm excited to hear what Mike has to say. Interesting day spaces. Massive day.
trying to hear what Mike has to say interesting day space is massive day
Big day. Big day. Options Mike. Got to hear from you a little bit earlier on one of our other spaces, but new audience here.
And I know you've been traveling a little bit. I don't know. You left. We pulled back in the market. The day you come back, we rip.
I don't know if there's a correlation there, but whatever it is, I like it.
Yeah, I had the presidency here.
I just told him what to say today, and he listened.
Well, there you go.
Let's do that more often, if you could.
Please, thank you.
I was down by Mar-a-Lago, and then he has his place less than five minutes from my house here, up in New Jersey.
So I'm just following around.
What can I say?
We got the trade deal.
It was a desperately needed win by the White House administration.
It's okay.
It's fine what it is.
It's one of the easiest deals to get done because the UK is their preferred trading partner.
I don't know how much it moves the needle, but it's a good deal, and it gets the ball rolling.
It's what we need.
I took more out of it that Trump softened his stance on tariffs and everything else.
He wasn't being aggressive towards China or everybody else.
He was kind of saying, let's get deals done.
Whereas a couple of days ago, I heard he was saying, you know, I don't know if I want to make deals again.
Right. This is kind of back and forth.
So I was happy to hear that.
I think that was really good.
The market here is very
constructive to me. Still, we have a cup and handle pattern on the SPY. We have a series of
higher lows. The 200 days looming. That's my big spot at 573.23. It's where it's at right now.
And I think, you know, I think the market wants to at least test that. And then we'll see,
you know, the real you're going to have the China trade talks this weekend.
I don't expect a deal, but maybe we can hope for a softening coming out of it.
Right. Maybe they both suspend tariffs or jack or ratchet them down for why they talk some more.
That would be great. I think it's a name of stocks.
This is a market of stocks. And, you know, the best setups right now seem to be in the big tech names.
Microsoft and Meta I talked about both look fabulous.
Amazon's looking good again.
The semis look okay, you know, not great.
I'd like to see NVIDIA.
I was hoping NVIDIA would hold that gap up this morning, but it couldn't.
Palantir is still a monster, even though the valuation is through the roof hood has been incredible the last couple days you got smaller names like tem and hims
that are running and you know overall the market is holding in really just fine here right now it's
you know it's just not a it's not a tremendous amount of momentum intraday at times you know
first we had to come out we had to come down and fill that gap this morning then we ripped higher
once the press conference started and trump spoke and you know here we are
up in the 570 area and the market feels like it wants that 200 day and then we adjust from there
to me that's the big spot i know some people will say it's not a big spot i i look at it's where we
broke down from we tried to hold it the first touch and when we retested it we failed there
and rolled back over so to me it has merit and I always think the 200-day is a big spot. Mike, I'm staring at that 200-day. That was kind of my
thought the other day. We were kind of building out that flag and it just made sense that the
NASDAQ got there and that SPY would follow suit. We kind of saw the same thing on the way down, right? We saw on the way down, was it QQQ hit first, I believe,
kind of let us down, hit the 200-day, we bounced,
and then came through it, and SPY came down and kind of finished that move.
So kind of hoping that pattern repeats itself here on the upside.
We are sitting right on that 200-day moving average on QQQ and NDX right now.
I see what you're saying there, kind of that cup and handle, kind of resolving higher.
I guess the question will be, where does it go next if it does get there?
Do we get stuck here until more news?
I mean, that's a possibility.
We could sit here for a while.
You know, the big earnings names are over for the most part, other than NVIDIA,
which is still, I think, two weeks out.
So, you know, everything else are smaller names.
We don't have those big names coming at us anymore.
The Fed is basically punted, which was expected.
And we're going to have data coming at us.
And it's going to be about the trade deals.
I mean, with this administration, love or hate them, it doesn't really matter.
You've got to play the news as it comes out. And as much as they say they're not looking at the market they absolutely
are because every time the market's not coming down or not working well they try to pump it up
you know buy stocks you should be buying stocks right they they want the market to go higher
and so you know just you got a big wait you got to watch you got to you got to pay attention but
you know until then you stick with the stronger names you know this is not you got to watch, you got to you got to pay attention. But, you know, until then, you stick with the stronger names.
You know, this is not a time to get cute in this market, in my opinion.
You know, you know, names like Apple just, you know, great company, but just it's right in the middle of this.
It's caught in the thick of this. And until that's resolved, it's going to struggle.
Yeah, Tesla's another one. Tesla's another one is stuck right in the middle of this, right? It's just hard for it to get out of this range.
So far, just like the earnings, have not really reflected any tariff impacts yet.
So a lot of information will come out, I'm sure, here in the next month or so as we continue that.
And then you mentioned the video earnings.
I believe those are on the 28th of May.
So just a few more weeks out on that.
Appreciate your thoughts.
Appreciate you kicking us off there, Options Mike.
As always, feel free to anyone to jump in to the conversation if you have any thoughts.
I saw Spartan's hand went up. I want to
throw it over your direction and see
what's on your mind today.
Thanks, guys. I needed to pop on because I've got to
run in a little bit here, but
I'll give you some thoughts.
So, you know, a few things.
I think the market completely changed its look
at the end of last week. It reclaimed the
50 of May on the weekly. It hasn't been above that level for, ooh, since, I guess, the beginning of the
year. So technically, that looks really good. I've been pretty bullish off the lows. I've been very
bullish on semiconductors off the lows. Then we saw that repeal yesterday into the end of the day,
and that was fantastic to see. And I think that's going to be a nice tailwind for the semis. You
got to keep an eye on those. AVGO, MU, Marvell. A lot of these names have pretty good valuations off the lows.
I've been in Soxel since 920,
and I'm going to be probably holding that thing as a legacy long going forward.
Set 14, I think it's got a lot of room to run
and should start to pick up some more steam there.
So I do really like that space.
I think the AI narrative is back on,
and I don't think it really left but you know you
had to go after the names with solid valuation off the lows which was probably the the key um
in my opinion they're watching cloud-based names as well and anything data related um going forward
cloud-based to the upside i think there's some nice opportunities there i think it's a really good um
uh you know really makes sense
to point out crowd strike i think that thing's been extremely strong it's had some great relative
strength throughout all this and i think it will continue to be a leader watching data dog off the
lows um i like this pa and w off the lows etc etc so you know i'm pretty bullish on tech just from
a technical standpoint that's what i'm looking at is the technicals um you know from a macro
perspective they've been saying it a couple technicals um you know from a macro perspective
they've been saying it a couple times and and you know i don't think it's any secret but you know
the tariffs are negotiation tools they're not they can't be there for the long term and everyone
knows that and i think when we saw you know when the narrative changed a couple times in the last
week i think things were a lot closer to breaking than what we thought, like when the 30 year was trading higher than the 20 year.
I thought that was pretty interesting.
And then they basically came out and they said, you know, we might have a deal with China, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah.
And it kind of changed the look in the bond market and the overall market in general.
So I think, you know, we got to watch what happens over the weekend with China.
I really like the consumer names that do manufacturing in China right now off the lows.
I think there's a great opportunity in the staples.
So like Nike, I think that's Vietnam.
But anyways, Nike would be one to keep an eye on.
I like Restoration Hardware, being in that one since 132.
I think it's still a very nice long.
I think the risk reward from this area is pretty solid.
I would keep an eye on Home Depot and a couple of these other names.
I think there's some really good opportunities.
I, you know, right now I'm really using the technicals to swing in the short term.
And these things can turn into long-term trades.
Fantastic.
But I'm trying to combining, I'm trying to combine the valuation with the technicals
to get me into the right entry right entry you know you don't
necessarily need to just you know buy and kind of average down i think you can time this a little
bit better by just watching when supports are reclaimed and when trends start to flip there's
definitely some opportunity there so you know i think there's the market is looks has looked a lot
uh looks a lot different than what it has in the last two months the last two
weeks tomorrow will be confirmation of that 50 may reclaiming on the spy so definitely worth
watching that i think it's pretty interesting too um i like the crypto narrative going forward
i think you're going to see uh some deregulatory moves there i think you're going to see a lot
more of these kind of funds being formed um some of my favorites right now, obviously MSTR is one of
them, but you're starting to see names like that being formed. I did have thesis on UPXI that you
guys can check out, and I think it's pinned to my profile. But these guys are doing basically the
same sort of move as MSTR, but they're using Solana, which is better for transactions and
this and that. And I think it's got a way better risk reward on the actual crypto asset than, you know, Bitcoin at these levels.
So worth keeping an eye on that one off the lows.
I think it's at the bottom end of the flag range right now.
So give that pieces to read.
I think it's very interesting.
It did some nice work on that, talked to the CEO, etc.
But I think those names and that story going forward on the crypto side is something that we got to watch for.
Quantum starting to come off the lows. I think we got to watch those names as well so there's a lot of
different narratives i you know for the most part looks like tax changing a little bit and uh yeah
we'll keep an eye on the s p but um i'm pretty bullish in the short to medium term right now so
i'll continue to stay long until the trends break that's kind of what i'm looking at
so you mentioned crypto right there because I just saw a headline from Fortune.
Meta is in discussions to deploy stable coins.
Just came across the wires.
That's interesting.
Spartan, let me ask you one follow-up question here, and then we'll continue on the panel.
As far as you're seeing these opportunities and stuff, are you actively adding to certain names you like?
Are you in a trim spot, a sit and wait?
What's kind of your perspective with where we're at today well i am long the semiconductors and have been for the last
you know three weeks was adding into them last night um again you know if you guys don't know
how to pick and choose anything just go off to the etfs they can do a good job for you
socks those are leveraged etf bullish for uh the semiconductor so that would be
one to to grab on them when they're trending up which they're starting to so like that and then
the cloud-based names i think you know start to add some of those off the lows and then these um
consumer manufacturing names that are uh where their manufacturing is china based i think there's
opportunities there so if you don't want the exposure on the equity,
there's certainly derivatives and options that you can take for the long term, you know, three to six months out. And, you know, you don't have to worry about that as much on the risk side,
or you can do some spreads, et cetera. But yeah, no, I'm actively trading this stuff, swinging it.
I've taken a lot of investment positions in the last month, and I'll probably continue to add to them going forward.
For instance, like restoration hardware,
probably go about half size off the lows right now.
I will still want to see what happens with China
so that I can really put the pedal to the metal,
but there's still a little bit of uncertainty.
It's got some cushion on it for sure,
but I'll wait for kind of like the-ahead to really get big on that position
and all these other little consumer manufacturing ones that we talked about.
I love it.
Appreciate that perspective there, Spartan.
Thanks for joining.
Yeah, thanks, guys.
Let's continue around.
Wolfie, let's go over your direction next and see what's on your mind today.
Nothing really new. More of the same.
Just, you know, when the sky was falling and started to go back up,
we were all pretty much looking for that 200 day.
We're like whisper away from there.
I think you need a real catalyst to like spark aggressively through it.
So the last couple of weeks I've just been, or the last couple of days,
especially the last couple of weeks, I've been, you know,
lightening up on things that have worked.
If you take a look at some of these names, like Meta, for example,
rallied off of 480 back to 620 basically in like a week and a half.
six, 20 basically in like a week and a half.
Those are pretty aggressive moves.
It's almost a 50% retrace from the,
from the lows into the hundred day.
Like that's just an example.
I just, I was looking at this morning.
So it's a good way to like, it's a,
it's a good example to use.
And then I've been saying,
I was just looking for idiosyncratic names,
idiosyncratic plays, things that are smaller, that are into support levels. I've mentioned a couple of names here.
Some of them have done pretty nicely. Take a look at Webull, for example, up almost 50% in like a
week and a half, week, something like that. It's a name I mentioned in here. Some other names as
well. Tempest. We were talking about Tempestest a couple days ago into earnings is at 50 you know trading you know 66 67 somewhere around there today so you know that's
really nice moves on the back of uh some of these you know not as bad as fear type of things you
also you also got the moves post earnings on a lot of them for some of these volatile names.
So HIMSS, for example, had a premium crush on earnings and then rallied after it trading aggressively past 50 today.
So for me, just looking, you know, some of these things that have performed well that I've made good money on,
I'm just trimming and not really
getting too cute still at this level. I do think that we have a debt situation and a right situation
and then a Powell and Trump situation coming up in the back half of summer. And then anything
that I was able to buy, you know,
like we mentioned hymns,
for example,
in this space,
it was in the 20s.
So like it's gone from 20 to north of 50.
This space loves hymns.
I know.
I'm just,
I'm using it as a,
and you know what?
I've given no part of it.
but I'll take 5% of the credit because I listen to it all the time.
Good job to you.
Yeah.
I'm just mentioning it because of how,
you know,
how aggressive it's moved. I'm mentioning is how aggressive it's moved and how
much everybody loves it so it's a nice little polar name so like if i'll say it now right and
then in the next week if it goes down someone will like tag the space and tag me that'd be fun
um yeah so any any moves like that i'm just looking for whether go ahead jim's has had that
weird like thin twit loves it and the
like value guys love it like i feel like it's cut both sides of it yeah but then you know if the
ones that have like missed the run won't be like too far too fast why are they giving valuation
or giving valuation metrics for 2030 blah blah blah blah, blah. So anyways, I'm just mentioning the polar ones.
So, you know, I think some of these names have had the thing where they've,
the whole point of saying it was I think some of these names,
Robinhood's another one, they have the earnings, they have the IV crush,
and then they just kind of like float around a little bit,
and then you get the move, which is like the best of both worlds
if you're an options trader.
You don't have to trade the event you get that that that vault crush and then you're able to trade shortly
thereafter on a three-day move or whatever uh other ones like xyz which is block you know they
gap down below the lows they hold and then you get like a almost like a 15 to 20% move off the lows. So it's been fun to,
to find setups like that at these levels.
But for,
for me,
if you,
if you didn't participate once we,
you know,
held some of those lows that we sat in.
New York post is just putting out a message right now that us is weighing
slashing China to 50%.
Sorry.
You wanted to call that.
That's cool.
So, I mean, on the back of that, take a look at some of these china names uh you know jd baba pdd etc i'm sure they're they're ripping so um that's that's where i'd look right off the bat all their
other names value like dollar tree dollar general things like that five below um you know some of
the the previous the previous speakers mentions wayfair restoration
hardware nike like those those things will probably get some some more some more juice
on the back of that headline um and yeah so for me if you're not trying to trade just trade these
levels on the back of some of this stuff then i am not trying to get with it here. If you, some of the names, like I said,
some of the names that I've been fortunate enough to be a part of, I've,
I've lightened up a lot and the positions that are,
that I'm willing to ride with from here on are positions that I'm willing to
ride with on the back of any sell-off. This stuff is fluid.
It changes day to day,
but I don't think that this is going to be the necessary drive, the driver the necessary driver necessarily moving forward once we have some sort of structure for a deal.
From there, I think we have like a, like I said, I think we have like a debt thing coming up.
We have a Powell versus Trump thing that's going to come up, in my opinion, probably.
And then we have, you know, a short term inflation tick up on the back of some of this tariff stuff.
So that's kind of like what I'm thinking for in the next few weeks, months, whatever.
I think in, you know, there's an ad that just says don't short a dull market.
I think in the next couple of weeks is probably what we're going to get in the beginning stages of summer.
So if you don't get any real material reset we are pumping right now
any real material reset here then uh you know that's going to be a fool's errand to try to
short adult tape so that's kind of where i'm at i'm i'm still sticking with some of these
idiosyncratic names um you know some of these names that reported and they didn't really move
and they the setup's still good i'm still looking at it i've them a couple of times on these spaces in the last couple of weeks.
I'll give you a couple of other ones.
Take a look at Rivian.
Rivian had a quote unquote bad report.
Went right back to support.
Now it's pressing back to where it was before the report.
Similar setup to Robinhood, similar setup to Tempest, similar setup to HEMS even.
uh tempest similar setup to hams even um you know that seems to be the kind of the kind of plays
for some of these mid-cap small cap names that i'm looking at that's that's pretty much it
outside of that tesla 293 big level 293 295 big level if it breaks through i'm looking for a move
to about 315 320 if we can get it um if it doesn't, then downtrend. Still intact. That's pretty much the only
mega cap that I'm kind of like
keeping an eye on at this level.
I want to talk, Stock Talk, do we have you here?
Yep, what's up?
Curious, because this headline, we are moving markets
right now. I mean, queues are up like,
you know, not massive, but a couple
points here, a couple dollars off from this last headline that could be cutting rates down to 50, whatever
percent for China. I don't know if you saw that headline. I don't know how much we trust the New
York Post too. I just want to start here and talk about the big stories on the day. I feel like it
was that first trade deal coming out. I want to get your thoughts on it and just shift around to
everyone else. And then maybe we can go back to other people if they want to keep doing the intros.
But we have the first trade deal not even signed indication of
what's going to be happening there was the phone interview uh kirk sarmar talking through the phone
which i thought was even there were some comments there but this last headline coming out right now
sending us higher in the last five minutes or so was the united states reportedly weighing plans
to slash china tariffs to as low as 50% to 54% next week around
these talks in Switzerland.
I'm going to get your thoughts around the day on
those specific headlines
out now, the market move,
and that's from the day.
If anyone else wants to build off that too.
Yeah, markets have been liking
the softening of tone
in the last few weeks. If I had
my finger on it, I think that's the reason for the rally. And what I mean by softening of tone in the last few weeks. I mean, if I had my finger on it, I think that's the reason for the rally.
And what I mean by softening of tone is just the willingness or the seeming willingness
to negotiate.
I think it's very hard to make the argument that Trump's tone has not softened on China
in the last three weeks.
In fact, I think it's softened quite a bit.
I think if you look at his comments today in the White House, I mean, the whole President Xi is my friend
thing is something he's been saying all along. But, you know, there was a bit of a spat going
on with regard to like, who's calling who and Trump referenced that today in the White House
too. He's like, it doesn't matter who's calling who matters to China wants to get a deal done.
I don't know what I feel in terms of time frame for the China deal.
It could take longer than people expect.
It could take a short amount of time.
When it comes to the UK deal, is it important?
Not really.
The United Kingdom is not.
They're a big trading partner of ours,
but they weren't a point of concern for this tariff thing in the first place.
You know, the 10 percent baseline tariffs that were announced on them was because they do have a trading surplus with us.
Let Nick mention that in the conference today, but he also alluded to the fact that that surplus comes from the purchase of gold bullion.
bullion. So, you know, I guess they're not counting it as a surplus. Regardless of that,
So, you know, I guess they're not counting it as a surplus.
the point is, is that the UK is really not the issue here. What we need is a deal with Europe,
and we need to deal with China. But if I had to put the market reaction in context,
I think the market is expecting a deal with Europe and China. Now, that means that the overhead risk is that we
don't get one, or that the talks go badly, or that, you know, the European Union decides to
retaliate. There were some articles out today and yesterday that, you know, they highlighted $150
billion worth of American goods that they could tariff in retaliation if they wanted to. I think the much bigger elephant in the room is digital
service exports to the EU. And I think that's really where their power is, because there's
like $600 billion of digital services exported to the EU. And so if they wanted to target that,
they could hurt us there. But they apparently haven't even considered that. So we're not out
of the woods yet, is what I'll say.
But obviously the action has been very promising.
Now, today we pushed into the 200-day.
I don't even know what the action is doing right now,
but we're like a buck off of it.
What are we trading right now?
Off zone spot.
Let's see.
God just told me we were over some 200-day.
I think it was for Qs.
Yeah, for the Qs.
QQQ sitting on it.
Spy is like $3.80, $4, $3.50 short. was for queues yeah for the queues sitting on it spies like three four dollars three and a half
short yeah i see spy at 570 40 for the 200 days so we're trading 560
875 so we're a couple bucks off um the 200 day moving average matters i mean if you go back and
and i don't a lot of people think like it's just line drawing bullshit. It's not. I mean, you can go back and look at previous market corrections, pullbacks, whatever you want. And you can see the 200 days a pretty firm line in the sand. And so a retake of the 200 days is important. But, you know, you can also get faked out. Right. You go back to April. we popped over the 200 day for two sessions and then
had a brutal, brutal unwind. So, you know, you don't want to get, you don't want to be jumping
on stuff right away. You got to be patient. And this is that sort of market where as a consequence
of that, you may have to protect yourself and forfeit some upside, especially if you're a
trader in trying to catch that trend, right?
I like to think of these market trends as like a super fast-moving train.
And it's like some people want to just jump on right away, but they risk getting burned.
And then the other people who, you know, maybe miss out on a little bit of upside
and then slowly ease in as conditions improve and as technical structure improves.
So, yeah, hell of a rally off the low, obviously.
No one even needs to make a point of that. We've gone from $4.85 back to, hell of a rally off the low, obviously.
No one even needs to make a point of that.
We've gone from 485 back to, you know, the 560s.
That's a hell of a move.
A lot of individual stocks have gone up 50, 60, 70, 80, 90%. I mean, one of my biggest positions, Robinhood,
seems like it's up 10% every day the market's up.
So, you know, if you're exposed to a basket of stocks that you like
and you've owned them for a while,
I say this all the time and that's your net long exposure on the market.
You can afford to be cautious because if the market continues higher, those names will go higher for you.
And if the market doesn't, then you'll probably be grateful that you didn't deploy all of your cash in a hurry.
So I'm certainly not as cash rich as I was a couple of weeks ago. Obviously,
you know, as conditions improve, technical setups improve on an individual basis, I have deployed
more cash. But I still have enough for flexibility, in my view, to where, you know, if the markets do
start peeling back down, I have my finger on a few names that I do want to own that I miss on the
rebound back up. And so I'll pick those names back up if the markets do come back here from the 200 day. Conversely, we break through tomorrow.
Great. You know, I have some new ads I've made recently and they're doing well. I picked up
some DMYY today, the quantum SPAC and that stuff did really well today. Gives us a nice little
head start. So yeah, I have names that I'm confident in owning that are doing well for me that are holding up during or during red days in the market and doing really well on
green days in the market, you know? So as long as you can pick your socks well, um, I think you'd
be fine. But as far as if we're out of the woods, I think we're not out of the woods on the macro.
I think we're close to getting out of the woods on the technical side, but you want, you do ideally
want to see a breakthrough the 200 day and some basing action first before you can breathe
a sigh of relief, in my view.
Because, again, you don't need to scroll your charts back too far.
Just scroll your charts back to April, and you'll see that little head pop over the 200-day
that we had that was followed by some brutal selling.
So continue to be cautious just because, again, there have
been no actual resolutions. But on the other hand, one point that is worth making is that
this sell-off, in my view, was largely sentiment and speculation driven. It wasn't driven by the
real data. That's just objectively true because the real data didn't forecast anything that would
have facilitated this sort of sell-off. So seeing as it was a speculative sell-off,
it makes sense that the rally back has been speculative as well in the sense that people
are expecting these deals to happen even though they haven't happened yet. But that kind of puts
us in a tricky spot where we don't know what's going to happen. And that kind of ties into the theme of Powell's comments yesterday, where he just said, I don't
know a million times and wait and see a million times, right? Because we don't know where the
tariff policy is going to end up. You know, if Trump cut tariffs on China, like you said, to 50%,
I mean, that's better than where we are today, but that's still probably not tenable for
a lot of industries.
You know, 10% tariffs?
Yeah, we can talk about suppliers absorbing those costs and, you know, incremental change
in prices in other industries, and we could probably brush that off.
20% gets a little harder, 30% gets even harder.
Well, my question is, on that 10% number. I mean,
that's kind of what we got with the UK today. We got the first deal here.
That's the base level. It's just not significant.
Like today's deal was not significant.
So just, just, just a point of clarity.
The headline was the U S is considering lowering China tariffs to 50%
before long trade talks begin. So that's just a point of clarity there
on the headline. Yeah, that would be good. I mean, in my view, I think they should be either
suspended altogether or lower to 10%. Look, if 50% tariffs remain in place for, let's say,
the negotiations take a year, that's going to be catastrophic. That's still too high.
It's still too high of a number. So yeah, I mean, that's my to be catastrophic. That's still too high. It's still too high of a number.
So yeah, I mean, that's my thoughts on that. Do I think it's better than 145% tariffs? Yeah,
obviously. Will some industries start to ship under that climate that aren't shipping now?
Probably. But are you going to get like a full rebound in shipping activity between the United
States and China as a result of cutting tariffs from 145 to 50? I don't think so. I think that's still too high. So yeah, look, this is a nuanced issue.
I mean, I think the UK deal is good. It's an incremental positive, but do I think it like
really matters and really affects the global macroeconomic impact of what's going on? No.
So yeah, that's kind of my view on on the events of today
do any of you others have a thought well others there you go uh on like i'm curious to deal with
the uk today and this china headline here interesting i find the graphic that he posted
about like the the uk versus the u.s tariffs and what they're going to is a little funny.
Evan, where do you put New York Post in your trustworthy sources?
Not high.
Above Reuters but below most others?
No, Reuters, Wall Street Journal, I know the jokes.
I put them higher than most of the other ones.
So we'll see on the New York Post.
But no, I would not.
No, I wouldn't put it super high for being real.
And to be real, like, and I hate to be the fake news chirping guy, but like even really, really good sources like Reuters and Wall Street Journal have had gotten a lot of stories wrong in the last couple of years.
Like, that's just objectively true.
So is it a part of journalistic error?
Is there some sort of, you know, other reasons for that?
I don't know.
But, I mean, I agree that the Wall Street Journal for many, many years
has been sort of like this prized financial source.
But for me, in the last couple of years,
they've at least lost some trust from me personally.
Same thing with the writers, who used to be pretty...
I wonder.
I wonder if we went back and looked at all these stories that were claimed to be full on fake news.
And maybe there was like small parts of it that were true,
that were then extended like this Elon Musk and being kicked out as CEO or
whatever.
If there was like,
Hey,
one board member had a friend.
I'd seem to see what's talking about.
One board member had a friend who did that stuff,
who mentioned like a joke about it on the golf course
and then they went doing it.
Like, sometimes there's sprinkles of truth
and that, like,
exaggeration.
Yeah, there's sprinkles of truth.
The issue is, like,
capitalizing on a sprinkle of truth
or a leak
and then turning it into, like,
a full narrative-driven story.
And I guess some people will say, like,
that's...
Yeah, that started to happen a lot.
It doesn't happen a lot?
No, it has.
There are a lot of narratives being.
Yeah, that's what I mean.
That's what I agree with it.
Right.
It's like if you're if you're going to take the stance of like, OK, I'm an objective journalist.
I found a story and I need to release the story.
That's one thing.
Like, for example, with the leaked signal chats that got leaked, I had no problem with that.
That's a real story. Like he got his hands on leaked signal chats and got leaked, I had no problem with that. That's a real story.
Like he got his hands on leaked signal chats and he told the public about it. That's fine.
Like American journalism, like that's, that's, that's journalism. You know, that's a real,
a real thing you found out that shouldn't have happened. And you told the public about it.
And actually in his article, there wasn't really a ton of opinion. He wrote subsequent articles
where he like trashed headsets. So those are opinion pieces, but in his article, there wasn't really a ton of opinion. He wrote subsequent articles where he like trashed headsets.
So those are opinion pieces.
But in the article itself, he didn't really, you know, demonstrate a narrative or try to like perpetuate a narrative.
But, you know, the Wall Street Journal and Reuters have both done that.
And so that's where some of my issue comes from.
It's like it's fine if you just got you heard something or an anonymous source told you something that you think might be true, but then run that. You don't have to run a four-page
article where you talk about, like, your opinions on Tesla and, like, all these things. You know,
that's, it's like, it's like kind of a bait and switch. It's like you bait people with the
headline of the story, and then you write a story about what your political opinions are on the
issue. That's not good journalism, in my view. I view. I mean, I'm not a journalist, but I read a lot of news,
and I just don't think that that's as useful to the public.
Stock Market News, great journalist.
Yeah, Stock Market News.
Facts only, right?
Lowercase J.
Hey, where's your dog in the background?
I haven't heard him
bark in a while.
He's kind of mad at me
because I was in
Scottsdale this weekend
and I put him
at doggy daycare
and he hates it.
He's being grumpy.
He's on attitude.
Sam, why don't you
go ahead and jump in?
Sam, will you overdo?
Yeah. There you go. i actually see him as a listener
so it never came to you it's a good thing he spoke no it's all good um i haven't really made
that many moves lately in terms of any long-term positions uh i should have logical raises hand
there i mean that guy is having a day up over 10 today i think the overall theme that we've seen
is that ad tech is not dying. I mean,
we've seen it with Google earnings, advertising is doing well, meta earnings, Amazon earnings as
well. I mean, those are all walled gardens. So it's kind of a different story, but even with
ad tech outside of that sell side platform, app loving, posting unbelievable numbers still,
I don't know how that company is doing it, but I am very happy
to be a shareholder of that company buying the dip on that one. We had three short reports come out
within just the last few months. And the third one with muddy water is having the most profound
effect on the stock dropping at like 30%, I think it was like 20% in one day. I mean, just when those
reports come out and especially the Muddy's
Water one, I read that one and it looked pretty legit. Their accusations were not like anything
without concrete evidence. They had screenshots, they had explanations and everything, but there
were some criticisms that I had about that report being that the population was pretty small in
terms of where they got their data from. But at the same time, the market believed it. They dropped the stock on it. And even the analysts got a little weary of it. But
we've seen in their earnings that they're continuing to post excellent numbers of selling
their apps development segment and focusing more on ad revenue, which is growing like 70% plus a
year. Their EBITDA margins are insane at this point, even though they're adjusted, they're still pretty insane. And the company is just really on the right side of the tailwind of
this secular trend for ad tech growth. And whenever I think of the ad names that I've
been adding as far as the dip that happened recently with Meta, Reddit, Apple 11, of course,
added to the TTV position, which we're seeing up 8% today, reporting today after earnings, might get a little bit of light in TDD in terms of that one quarter blip that we saw last quarter, which I think is more attributed to a fundamental problem rather than something that can be fixed overnight.
I'm not coming into the earnings for TDD expecting everything to be fixed and everything all dandy.
However, I did think the sell-off was pretty overdone, trading at a much more compressed valuation. It actually went below $50 a share during those
April lows, which is pretty insane seeing it drop all the way from $130 down to $40.
Sam, I want to hear something cool. I like to add stocks to my watch list. The way I do that
is I buy a couple shares of it.
I got this one at a day where I was maybe a little vulnerable and just wanted to buy a bunch.
I bought 10 shares of TTD at $46.36.
Oh, there you go.
Yeah, it's a BK on the other spaces who got me in there,
but I got it on the fourth.
Hey, but those QBQ buys you were doing below $400
was actually pretty good.
You're already up 25%.
Actually, $400 was the lowest one I got into. I was watching it good you're already up actually 400 400 was the
lowest one i got into i was watching it below it but oh you didn't get the 399 flex on there
no 400 flex but ttd 4636 maybe i'll flex on all you guys if we're up another 20 or something
i'll take it i mean i don't mind seeing that flex if we're up another 20 that'd be great no it's all
good it's all good uh but yeah i mean i know stock stipend has a lot of numbers to put on there and a lot to raise your hand. So I'll cut that one short, but definitely bullish on the market. Again, I'm not planning on deploying a whole lot of cash right now. Only have about five or 6% left. The majority of that was really deployed at the bottom, even after making a larger deposit. So, you know, interested to see. Also interested to hear what Larry Thompson's signal says in terms of his,
his models, those are pretty interesting models. He sent,
he DMed me some, some screenshots of the models look pretty good.
So really interested to hear everyone else's take. Thank you.
Real quick on TTD, the, from a technical perspective,
the setup now basically has that call it like 55 level,
53, 55 level of support. So if whatever they say doesn't
take out that 55 level, it could be one of those things that gets a little bit of a boost, uh, or
a little bit of a bit, excuse me. And then just has that, that same, you know, follow through
setup post earnings, if it weren't. And if they do say anything, that's like incrementally positive,
that isn't expected. There's not really much resistance until you get up to that you know 80 level give or take
just from a technical perspective like there's a couple yeah there's a couple spots along the way
like 65 but there's not anything material from a resistance standpoint if they can light a match
of some kind so it's a really good setup to watch post ER, I think,
especially if it doesn't move during ER.
Yeah, no, I agree with you.
I mean, we've seen it with many companies,
especially Tesla,
even though it's not nearly compared to TPD,
but yeah, where a stock just gets sold off relentlessly,
like overreaction sold off.
You know, I mean, the fundamental perspective is debatable.
But yeah, I mean, if they come up with a report and it's not as bad as expected, like
this thing can be up like 10% tomorrow just based off that alone, you know, and you're
going to have all the shorts covering everything.
I don't know what the short interest is in this one, but it is a pretty interesting bounce
we're seeing here today, pre-earnings.
But, you know, those ad numbers for Apple 11 has been pretty good, even though it's on the sell side platform versus demand side.
It does make the market a little bit of excited.
And the markets being up to 1.5% breaking the 200-day moving average certainly does help too.
too yeah these these small to mid cap names that don't really have any material impact on the
index once they get some sort of juice in them like they can really squeeze in a matter of days
you can take a look at like several names this week from that are small caps mid caps whatever
so this is a good good one to flag if they don't sell off on the back of earnings wouldn't be
surprised to see people chase it after the report even right so they could chase it one way or the other you know once the
report's out but in the coming days if it doesn't sell off wouldn't be surprised to see if it turn
into like a momentum thing
uh logical i know your hand was up there for a second your name was mentioned uh sounds like
you had a great day let's uh let's hear all about it yeah man today was my best day ever in my
trading career so do want to drop some words i mean dude plus 11 on the day i mean this is bigger
than the tariff pause news day and my portfolio is much higher than it was on that day. So,
I mean, just dollar amount, just amazing. Like, I don't even know what to say, but
Magnite had earnings yesterday. They talked about the Google ad tech implications that stocks up
20% today. It was like a 20% position for me with a bunch of calls and whatnot. I've
since basically undone. Okay. I mean, obviously we're in a ripper and so I just wanted
to be prudent. So I cashed out the short dated calls and I rolled it back into shares. I just
want to be prudent. And it's a very massive size. Today we have Pubmatic reporting, which is another
sell side ad tech name, which has a similar Google tailwind, much smaller market cap,
but the stock is now running 10 into the earnings today so i'm not
sure which way that'll go but clearly a lot of cushion there but yeah i mean i took off all my
short dated options i raised now uh cash i mean i was like 120 long earlier this week now i'm sitting
around 96 so about four percent cash feel comfortable about that um i mean just a big day
amplitude it's a software name very very cheap, reported earnings yesterday,
too, up 13% on the day. PSNL, which is baby Tempest AI, I've been talking about this one for
a while. Tempest owns an 18% stake in this $400 million or $500 million company. They knocked it
out the park with earnings. Management is confident they're going to get reimbursement
approvals for their cancer detection tests. I mean, if you want AI and healthcare, I've
been talking about this one for months, but it's really starting to move now. Reclaim
the 200-day. Yesterday, it was up 21% after earnings. Today, it's up another 10%. Obviously,
Tempest is moving up as well, but this is kind of like a more low-key way. I'm a small
cap guy. So those are my top four positions. Up 20 10%, 10%, 13% today, insane day, ClearPoint Neuro up 9% today, rapid microbiome systems up
9% today, rocket pharmaceuticals, 7% cure, Unicure, Q U R E up 22% today. I mean, it's just one of
those days where everything is working. And I'm just happy that,
you know, I was well positioned for it. But also earlier this week, there was some biotech news.
I think we talked about it. Like they appointed some guy at the FDA and I was very down that day.
I'm going to be real with you. I had like, I took a minus 5% hit on the portfolio because I was so
concentrated in bios. And, you know, that day I was like, you know what, I need to reduce the
number of positions I have. You know, I see people make the mistake often where they take a big hit.
And so they feel like they have to revenge trade. I'm the opposite. If I take a big hit,
I take a step back and I reduce my size. I reduce my number of positions. I wanted to,
you know, re-concentrate and consolidate back into my highest conviction names
because they're just easier to
track. It's easier to focus that way. There's just too much noise in my portfolio. So I wanted to
just scrap everything, even if they were good setups, even if I liked the names. But yeah,
those are moments where I really needed to kind of reduce the number of positions and,
you know, take it, take it by day. So feel good about it. Obviously, you know, as the markets
ripped, you know, some of the names that I've clipped have ripped too but I just got to be okay with that and
yeah so I guess the moral of today was stick to high conviction reduce you know
you know reduce the excess focus stick with you know what you like own
businesses you like and you can justify size up when it makes sense but also you
know after such a big
rip in the market, you know, approaching that 200 day, very important spot. Yeah. That's where I
kind of want to be a little, not, I mean, again, I'm still 96% alone in this market, but I, you
know, I wanted to raise some cash and reduce the number of short dated options that I have.
And that's all, you know, I don't think there's anything more to say to that. I feel like today I've reduced a ton of my stress
and that's really important
because I feel like this market has been crazy.
So anyways, just wanted to recap that great day
because it was one of those days.
Appreciate that logical.
Congrats on a big day.
Larry, let's go over to you and see what thoughts you
have and then we'll get stock sniper in just before the earnings do we have larry
all right we'll come back around wait larry can you can you hear amp maybe he can't hear you
oh no never mind i may have had to step away for a second got to hear from him a little bit Come back around. Wait, Larry, can you hear Emp? Maybe he can't hear you.
Oh, no.
Never mind.
I may have had to step away for a second.
Got to hear from him a little bit earlier today.
Always great stuff.
Stock Sniper, let's go over and see what's on your mind and if you wanted to hit some of those earnings.
Can I get a mic check?
Please tell me you can hear me.
Can you all hear Sniper?
I'm just messing with you.
I didn't like the lack of confidence though um
you know i gotta say first off before i even start talking about the earnings um
logical is really underselling himself here um this magnate uh trade that he's been in he's been
talking about it for quite a while and you know i've heard him talk over and over about this on
stocks on space for the last couple months It must be insanely satisfying to see that actually pan out and go the way it has been. This guy's had his best day in the stock market like
four times in the last year. And the reason why I can actually attest to it is because I've seen
him absolutely get smoked before, and he's not going to hide when that happens. But just wanted
to put that out there. Logical's really underselling himself there on that Magnite one.
Definitely check out that Magnite trade. Insanely exciting. But as far
as earnings go today, we have some banging earnings today after close. We have Coinbase,
we have Trade Desk, we have Affirm, we have Marathon. We have quite a lot. The full schedule
is posted in the comments below into the spaces. You could see that with the blue button down there.
Of course, all of these numbers are supplied to us via earnings hub um so you know
check out earnings hub huge shout out to them but as far as coinbase the one that we're all here for
today and the one that we're expecting the most we're expecting a 12.70 12.77 move or six and a
half percent previous reactions are not so bright on coinbase a minus 7.98 percent and minus 15.34
percent and minus 3.86% and minus 2.45%.
And since the last report, Coinbase has been absolutely smoked at minus 33.75.
Coming into this earnings report with 1,078,373 open interest.
Our second big one, trade desk.
What's up?
On Coinbase, I just want to throw this out there.
Pretty cool, actually.
I am either.
It's one of those things that are going around on X
and I'm about to get scammed or something.
So if you see me tweet out random crypto coins over the next couple days,
that's why.
But Coinbase is doing some interview tomorrow
and I'll be asking Brian Armstrong questions.
So after the earnings, if there's anything you're like,
I'm going to ask you guys after, what should I ask him?
You guys should let me know.
But I'm excited for that tomorrow.
Another little thing, a little tip about Coinbase.
I'll put out a tweet in a second about this one.
But for those who might be looking to trade this in the after hours, we know options close at 4 p.m.
But we have Con L and Con Z, I believe is the 2x short Coinbase.
Is it C-O-N-Z?
Someone correct me if I'm wrong there.
But C-O-N-L is 2x long Coinbase.
But, you know
just putting that out there definitely gonna be watching the leverage tickers
in the after hours on this name reports we can sometimes see some crazy
institutional moves our second big guy today is trade desk TTD our implied move
on this is seven dollars and one cent or twelve point forty two percent previous
reactions we can remember last quarter when they absolutely were obliterated at
minus thirty two point ninety eight percent Then we could see a minus 5.58%, a plus 12.5% and plus 3.08%. And since the last report,
there's been absolutely no mercy for the trade desk. It's been minus 53.37% in the last three
months, which is absolutely crazy. I know a lot of people are here for Affirm. We can see a $5.86
move or 11.38%. Affirm has some pretty
solid previous reactions we could see last quarter at plus 21.81%. Three quarters ago at plus 31.92%
and coming into this earnings report with 450,414 open interest. I'll jump over a little bit. If
there's any specific earnings that anybody's really interested in or wants me to cover, I'll be happy to. But the one that I'm personally the most interested
today is Soundhound, Soundhound AI, ticker S-O-U-N. Our implied move on this guy is only at $1.13,
but it's 12.33%. We can see our previous reactions. Remember, we had a pretty good
report last quarter on Soundhound at plus 17.48%. Then we saw a minus 17.06%, a minus 6.53, and a plus 7.16%.
Since the last report, Soundhound is literally right where it was before at minus 0.33%,
which actually equates to only a couple of cents on this name. It's a less than $10 stock.
But our open interest on this is $591,901. DraftKings is reporting after close. A lot of people are
here for that one as well. Our implied move is $2.92 or 8.43%. Previous reactions, we could
see a plus 15.16% positive reaction, plus 2.95% positive, minus 9.78%, minus 2.81%. And since the
last report, DraftKings is down 26.14%. TickerWolf is reporting today.
I don't really think that many people are here for that, but if you want to read those numbers, go ahead and check out on my page.
Lyft is reporting today with $1.45 or 11.32%.
Previous reactions, we could see a minus 7.92%, a plus 22.85%, a minus 17.23%, and a plus 7.11%. Since the last report, Lyft is down 11.36% coming into this
earnings report with 618,549 open interest, which is pretty low for Lyft compared towards
many that we actually see. I got four net earnings out there. I have Marathon.
With Marathon, excuse me, I got some allergies, but with Marathon, we're expecting a 6.12% move
or 82 cent move. With Marathon, we're expecting a 6.12% move or $0.82 move.
With Marathon, we're looking at our total crypto mind and total crypto holding a lot more harshly than we were going to look at the EPS and the revenue.
Similar setup to MSTR, but that's pretty much the data set that we're going to be watching.
But aside from that, all of the data is pretty much posted on the schedule and everything is out there. So go ahead and check everything out. And if you want to hear any of those numbers again.
Back to you, Evan.
Cool.
Yep.
Numbers coming out soon.
Watch out.
I feel like the time is also something important.
But you should also just comment the link to yours.
Stock talk.
You watching any of these earnings?
Coinbase, Trade Desk, DraftKings, Rocket Lab.
Yeah, I think there's a bunch of interesting ones.
I mean, I'm always interested in the, the you know that kind of market cap range of stocks i mean obviously
coinbase a little bit bigger now but uh cloud flare draft kings i'll be interested in there's
a couple of shit codes reporting tonight too that i like a firm guy um a firm sound on AI toast is trading tonight that's stuck I've traded pretty frequently
so yeah no direct stocks I own reporting tonight but several stocks that I'm used to watching and
trading reporting tonight so yeah I will be I'll be watching a couple of firm is interesting because of a peer sezzle sezl uh which reported you know like shocking numbers or
better than expected numbers but that sucks that stocks up really aggressively um i think it's up
40 almost on the on the high of the day if not more so it's interesting because i'm wondering
if that's just like a tailwind
cross industry or if people are just floating from one to the other,
um, or if they've got like flavor of the month.
So that's the interesting thing there for me.
Yeah.
You also have TKO group, uh, reporting after hours,
which is a name that I love.
You also have applied to have applied opto electronics,
which has been a big meme runner,
wild name for the last year or so.
They report after hours today.
So a lot of mid caps reporting,
small and mid caps reporting that I do think are interesting.
So I'm curious.
I want to get monitored.
Have you watched any of these numbers?
Any of these earnings?
What were you going to focus on?
You're going to make different names than the rest of us do.
I thought I'd give it a second.
I am not hearing Monitiv.
I'm sorry.
I was talking on mute there.
I am watching a few of them.
Kind of certainly.
But I'm sort of distracted by the escalation
in India. So there's significant
escalation in the war. So
I'm kind of stuck
there. So I'm not paying much attention
to anything else. But
suffice it to say, it doesn't look good.
There was one headline I saw this
morning about Pakistan. So they shot down five indian jets
would surprise me but um yeah i mean look there's a lot of misinformation on both sides so i'm not
gonna i'm not gonna pick sides or call out any specific thing but there is news right now that
that india has attacked the port of karachi. So that's a big deal.
If that's true,
again,
I'm only going off reports that I'm seeing.
I don't have,
you know,
confirmation,
at least it's going to take a little while.
It's still nighttime in India,
but none of this is good.
None of this is,
none of this is deescalatory by any means,
right?
This is getting worse.
So I don't know where this is going to go.
Beyond that, you've had a couple of headlines in the last 10 minutes.
You've got Navarra out there saying threats of retaliatory terrorists from the EU will hurt talks.
And then you have a Trump headline saying he's pushing GOP lawmakers to raise taxes to 39.6% on individuals making $2.5 million or more.
Yeah.
I just want to clarify this real quickly, Monitiv.
But the Port-A-Karachi story is not true.
And taking out carried interest also.
So that was also in the suggestion from Trump.
Monitiv, did you hear that?
Monitiv?
Yes, sir.
The Port-A-K karachi story is not sure
it was just some guy on social media he was sharing footage of a 2015 plane crash and
no i i'm not reporting i'm not reporting from there i'm reporting from business today the
editor of wio news he came out and said there's no Indian naval vessels in distance of Karachi.
They're in the Arabian Sea.
That's good.
Yeah, yeah, yeah.
That's the thing.
Same thing with the story about the planes being shot down.
I actually tweeted it when that headline hit, and then I deleted it,
because there's a lot of fake stories being put out.
I don't think, according to what I've read from the direct,
because both of them are putting out direct statements that are pretty written with propaganda
on both sides. So I've just been trying to listen to like as close to third party news sources that
I can find in the area, which is pretty hard to do anyway. But I don't think any soldiers have
been killed on either side outside of the initial
strikes that india did which in which i think one pakistani soldier was killed and then
seven terrorists and apparently three civilians i don't know the exact tally on that but i don't
think there have been any retaliate soldiers killed in retaliatory action since then there
have been a lot of statements that planes were shot down, you know, this was bombed,
that was bombed, but
nothing official. So, it's pretty hard.
It's a pretty hard story to track. The same way that the
Ukraine war was really hard to track
in the first 72 hours or so
because
there was a lot of fake news. And there still is a lot of
fake news in every conflict
around the world. So, yeah, it's pretty
tough, especially nowadays with
all this ai generated footage and and everything so i i don't even know how anyone like follows it
to be honest i end up having to check three or four different sources before i even begin to
believe something it's pretty wild all right 18 seconds here until the market closes uh we are right at one percent up we've pulled
back here obviously last 30 minutes or so right at one percent up on qqq 0.6 percent on the s p
i need an i need an 8x for the next 10 seconds. You got one?
I'll sell you some.
Damn, I'm cooked.
Guys, the first one that's coming out that we're going to be looking for is the trade desk coming out at 401.
Yep, I've got my charts up.
Earnings hub up on the side over here.
News sources all the above.
Officially closed.
QQQ 1.03%.
SPY 0.69.
Nice.
Paramount's out.
They beat on EPS.
Double beats for Paramount.
Not really moving.
I was talking this morning about Warner Bros. Discovery possibly splitting its company.
I thought was pretty interesting.
But I didn't dig fully into what parts that was going to be. lot of these numbers come out 405 410 I saw coinbase was for a five draft Kings was 415 so that's when you can expect a lot of those insulate pop you just
reported there goes there goes to be 616 million beating 616 million be the expectations of 573 million.
EPS was 33 cents being expectations of 25 cents for TTD.
You said it's up a bunch?
It's up 20%.
It's up 13.
Yeah.
All right.
I'm now at 43% on that
common buy, Sam.
Let's go.
I just hope it's not going to be an A-Lab situation.
I hate dealing with those.
Who jinxed it yesterday? Who was that? Was it Wolfie?
Did I chase it?
Jinx it.
I didn't jinx it? No. Jinx it. I guess I jinxed it.
I didn't jinx it last time.
I jinxed it the time before.
I was shorting it.
They were long, but I didn't touch it last time.
What an insane close.
Expedia.
Cloudflare's down 7%.
Sorry?
Doesn't Cloudflare report today or am I tripping?
Yes.
Correct.
Nakamai, aka M, if anyone cares.
Beat on EPS.
In line with Revenue.
aka M is out.
Expedia earnings are also out.
I don't have the numbers.
There are the numbers.
Expedia missed revenue by a little bit,
but EPS more or less in line with expectations.
I guess the forward guidance might be weak.
Lyft came out.
It's up 7%.
Wow, they're still in business?
I have my thing
filtered by 10 billion,
and I don't see them, so.
Lift's up 10% now.
Lift's a good bolt-on business,
if anyone wanted to clear it out.
They had EPS of one cent.
Consensus was minus two.
Revenue 1.5 billion beats 1.46.
Coinbase with a form 8 out.
This might be that acquisition that was rumored earlier.
Yeah, it's that acquisition Coinbase announced earlier.
Coinbase acquisition.
Is that crypto lending thing, I think?
I can't remember the name.
Derabit?
Bit of Rooney or something.
I don't know.
Do you have Pinterest numbers, anybody?
Pins is supposed to be at 406.
Got about one minute to like five names report.
Yeah, I'm going to need someone to give me a question ask coinbase too
i wish i asked the ceo top five investments they rather would have made instead of ethereum
all right anyone but wolfie will see loves a good top five wolfie loves buzzfeed that's a joke man
loves buzzfeed it's a joke man
i thought that was funny too good top tens they had their top boxes out they double beat but
they're down two percent i would ask how they're managing their average cost on bitcoin do they
have an average cost on bitcoin absolutely but i mean it's only going to go up.
Ask him how much Trump coin he has.
Thanks for the question, guys.
I will definitely ask all of these.
Affirm earnings are out.
Texas Roadhouse missed.
Texas Roadhouse missedhouse what the hell
a firm's out
it's popping to the upside up six percent eight percent tmdx north of 105.
oh really wow tko group out so was toast group well toast and then tk as a yeah jesus tmdx up 18 i haven't talked about this one i actually built a little position in it and was losing
a lot of money on it some could say a bag holder 80 57 is my cost basis see you didn't mention it. Worked out for you. Right? Now I did.
Sorry, shareholders.
I sold at a pretty decent loss on that one.
Eerie have a nice move today, too.
Affirm, reverse the move.
Now it's down.
Evan, you have the TKO numbers?
They raised their full year guidance reflecting strength.
Revenue is 1.26 billion.
1.27 Wall Street wanted.
1.07.
So that's a beat.
And then EPS was...
I don't want to keep looking.
I don't know.
I want that thing to go down to the 90 in May.
69 cents, I think.
Watch you want it 55.
Yeah, but I hope it doesn't... I hope it goes red a little bit so I can buy it.
I've been trying to get into that one. It always gets away from me. Every time I try to get into I hope it goes red a little bit so I can buy it I've been trying to get into that one it always gets away from me every time I
try to get into it it's been a crazy run it's toast moving lower EPS was a miss
for them I don't know look to toast toast is moving higher well yeah wow
did this things in the 30s no I I haven't been trading in a long time.
Did we read off Transmedics numbers?
No, we did not read them off.
We just noticed they're up like 16, 18%.
Yeah, it's kind of crazy.
EPS expected, 24 cents.
Actual, 70 cents.
Revenue, 121.62 million.
Actual, 143.53 million.
192% EPS beat and 18% revenue beat.
So Pinterest missed.
$0.23 versus $0.26.
$8.55 versus $8.46, they beat on revenue.
Pinterest is up 11%, 12% now.
We'll circle back at some of these.
Obviously, down in the spaces shop, purple 20,
write which tickers you want us to circle back on,
and we'll look back at it too.
HubSpot at 6.50, though.
They beat EPS, beat revenue.
Stock's down about 1.6% in a little bit in after hours.
My guess is Coinbase should be coming out in a couple minutes here too.
Owned four companies reporting today and two of them saw it
reported to DraftKings and Net.
I was curious
to see the Net results.
I think Net normally
goes at 415.
Are they okay?
Let's see.
Yep.
That's what that says.
The DraftKings, Cloudflare,
17 Rocket Lab as well.
There's a lot of names reporting still.
Oh, yeah.
Five names that I own now.
Yeah, so far, it's actually gone good
for the names I own.
So far.
Stock Talk, you got those TKO numbers?
I read them out.
Beat them both top and bottom line.
Oh, shit.
I got a couple earnings, but I don't know if people care about them.
Pubmatic looks flat in after hours.
No reaction.
I think the results are a little underwhelming, but ahead of their guidance.
And they just, they said they've retired 17% of their shares in like the last year or something like that.
And they just announced another $100 million expansion of the buyback.
That's 20% of the market cap.
So I think...
Wait, who is this?
Sorry, I just got back.
Pubmatic. It's another SSP, who is this? Sorry, I just got back. Pubmatic.
It's another SSB.
The stock is not doing anything after hours.
I feel like people are probably waiting for the call.
They're probably going to pump it
on that Google narrative,
just like Magnite did.
But we'll see.
Honestly, I think the results are pretty underwhelming,
but the stock was basically just trading at all-time low.
So, I mean, the expectations are minimal.
COSK?
It looks like Transmatics raised their guidance too,
by the way, to go with the double beat.
Cleanspark, COSK, the other Bitcoin miner,
revenue 181.
You said Transmatics?
No, you said...
I said Transmatics.
Madics?
Madics?
I don't even know.
Transmatics?
I heard it differently.
Okay. medics medic madics I don't even know I heard it differently
Pinterest monthly active users increased 10% I didn't know that many people would use that yeah I don't think it's our demo tip for stock talk I don't think many of us use Pinterest EPS was a
mess dude Pinterest and Etsy oh my god that's so funny that you bring that up
I was like talking to my friends about this weekend I was like I don't get how
those companies are so big but I guess girls use those social media apps I've
never heard it would be like oh my god check out my Pinterest or my Etsy but I
guess they're both multi-billion dollar companies right what's pins market cap
I think it's under 10 billion no it might be over in a thought on that and my
filters 18 billion mark yeah well it's up 11 so it's it's 20 21.
That's crazy. But think about like you go into any of your friends homes that are married ask where they got half the stuff. It used to be like those like home no I've heard I've heard girls tell
me about this too like that they're you know like they like to use it for fashion and designing and
things like that I maybe I just don't get it because I don't
really know anything about that stuff.
I haven't talked to a girl in three years,
so I get it.
Yeah, exactly.
But yeah, I mean,
whatever, good for them.
That $20 billion market cap now.
A lot of big movers on this one. thing used to be a 90 stock what he says
dmdx looking nice or some of these other ones what's tcd doing i saw pulling back a tiny bit
but still up a couple percentage points tcd up still 10's nice. It's crazy to look at the COVID prices for some of these stocks.
Yeah, look at Dropbox. What about
Zoom?
Some of these names are turning it like five times
their current valuation, like five, four years.
I remember the memes that were like,
oh, Zoom is now bigger than ExxonMobil
and that was the top.
Yeah. Dude, Zoom
is a crazy one.
Somebody was, oh, who posted the meme about skype and zoom was so hilarious i forgot it sound town uh eps 31 cents expected minus 0.09
revenue 30.38 million uh expect expected uh actual 29.129 million 444% EPS beat 4% revenue miss
That's interesting I said then someone on the cost-cutting side or there's some kind of one-time
Benefit there's something
there's something interesting headline here from CBC Pound here is now a top
10 one of the top 10 largest US technology companies by market cap well
that's pretty crazy.
What are we waiting on now?
Just net and what else?
Drakkings.
Coinbase just came out.
Oh, Coinbase came out?
Okay, let's see.
And Rocket Lab yeah Rocket Lab was in line on UPS
what is Coinbase?
do you have the Coinbase numbers?
I don't see it actually
yeah I'm not seeing Coinbase yet
did you just sign me? EPS, actual minus 1.55, expectation minus 0.37, minus 318.92% miss.
Revenue, 213.9 million, expectation 217.59, minus 1.7% miss.
Horrible miss for Marathon.
That one on the shocker up there with the Apple
buyback.
Alright, we should be getting a lot of numbers
out right now. I have seen DraftKings,
Cloudflare, RocketLab,
all just reported.
Alright. Looks like DraftKings might be the most popular ones. Rocket Lab, all just reported. All right.
It looks like DraftKings might be the most popular one.
Let me see if I can get that first.
$1.4 billion on revenue.
Wall Street wanted $1.43.
It's going to be a slight miss on revenue for DraftKings.
Nets moving lower, too.
I don't see the numbers yet.
Cloudflare revenue is $479 million. That's a beat of expectations of $469 million.
EPS was $0.16 in line with expectations for Cloudflare. So slight beat revenue in line with expectations for cloudflare so slight beat revenue miss are in line with EPS
is that is that real stock cipher marathon digital minus 1.55 versus 0.57 correct tends
to be a one-time expense that you don't really it's okay there it could have been like they
sold something or how to take a one-time fit the EPS can change like that. It's probably like a $2 per share fee in there.
Rocket Lab.
What's that one doing though?
Rocket Lab.
Revenue was...
Wait.
Revenue was $123 million or something?
Or what am I reading here?
I hope they didn't have revenue.
Now $120. have revenue now 120 all right on that what's eps wait you got 123 mil uh eps with negative 12 cents that's how you miss i see 123 million which is a beat the beat revenue miss cps for rocket lab i still got
seeing these coinbase numbers draft kings miss cps miss revenue rocket labs numbers are out do you
have it yeah total revenue 2 billion a 10 percent decrease compared to previous quarter, net income of 66 million, adjusted net income, which includes tax deferred impact of gains, stood at 527 million, adjusted EBITDA of 930 million.
Subscription and services revenue up by 9% to $6.98 million,
primarily driven by growth in stablecoin.
Let's see.
Is this 24 cents? Is that gap EPS?
I don't know. I don't have those details.
It's just flowing through.
I'll get back. Let me dig through the numbers as they come in.
I think I actually have a form now in front of me.
There we go.
Oh, nope.
I need this to load.
What's the initial move on Coinbase stock, though?
It's down.
It was already down by the time those numbers were hitting everywhere,
but down 2.6%. right at 200 bucks a share
i think i have more information with their ups
so give me a minute you you want to throw us around?
What did you say, Evan?
I said you should throw us around
and give it to someone else.
Alright, can you not hear me or something?
You can hear me, right?
Em, do you hear me?
Alright, whatever.
Alright, I'll keep going. Coinbase, I'm only seeing EPS.
I don't see if it was Gap or not.
So we'll keep moving on from that one.
I was looking at the 52-week high list today as well,
and there was a couple of interesting names in here.
Duolingo, GE, doing well.
Mercado Libre, I know that was a really popular one.
Saying it won't let them unmute.
That's fine.
Or maybe that's just an excuse.
Okta also hit a new 52-week high list today.
I think that's pretty much all the numbers we had out right now, though.
I want to see what some of these last names are doing.
DKNG.
Stock's down about 1%, but I feel like a lot of these sports betting names,
we kind of knew how they were going to go.
Stock Talk, is that a spacey wash?
I know we had a fan deal with for earnings a little bit ago.
I want to go in with size on the sports betting names at some point.
I'm just waiting for it to be ready. I've traded them in with size on the sports betting names at some point. I'm just like waiting for it to be ready.
I've traded them in the past,
like DraftKings back in the SPAC era,
like when it first de-SPAC,
I traded it and did really well on it.
I haven't revisited it in size.
Like I've revisited it occasionally for like a,
you know,
a couple of week trade here and there,
but I haven't revisitedited in size in a while.
And I want to, it's a name I want to own.
I think they'll be the winner.
But right now the issue with online gambling in my view,
and I think this is part of the reason why names like Sports Radar,
for example, which a lot of people might be familiar with,
some people might not be familiar with, but it's ticker SRAD that stocks up 28% year to date.
Their winner agnostic play on, on sports betting, because they're on the data side.
You know, you look at genius sports, which is another winner agnostics play G and I that
stocks up 17% year to date. Um, the reason I think the winner agnostic data plays are a
better way to play sports betting and have been a better way to play sports betting is because
you don't have to deal with the customer acquisition cloud that's in the sports betting
business. And what I mean by that is that anybody who's sports bet knows this, but the odds on most digital sports betting apps are relatively the same
between Bovada to FanDuel to DraftKings.
Like you might be able to find a little bit of an edge on,
on a bet you want to take on odds wise.
If you're really watching all the books simultaneously and you'd be like,
Oh yeah,
I can get better odds here.
That'll happen incrementally.
But broadly speaking, the odds or the odds making is relatively the same.
OK, so that's point one.
Point two is, is that all of these guys offer bonuses to join them.
Like they spend a lot on marketing, right?
Like, hey, come join our app, deposit $200, get $200 in free bets, right?
So they prop up their marketing effort with very generous offers compared to the marketing efforts you see in other industries.
That's point two.
And point three is there's a lot of players, and many of the smaller players have regional moats where they have a ton of adoption in a regional market.
An example of this is
Rust Street Interactive in New Jersey. They had a very, very, very strong hold on that market.
And so, you know, they did well as a consequence of that, but there was a difficulty in the larger
books, the larger digital books penetrating that market. You know, but it's not like they've been able to leverage that regional
advantage either. They've also been kind of trapped. Rush Street's been trapped in this
competition as well. I think they've done a little bit better execution-wise than some of
the larger guys, but they've been trapped in this competition as well. And so what you get is you
get a space where there's very little product differentiation customers are not sticky
and marketing spend is very high those are the three unique traits about the digital gambling
space and that makes it very difficult to compete as a book until there's greater consolidation
and there's always a wave of consolidation in these new industries.
Sometimes it happens five years in, sometimes it happens 15 years in. There's always a wave
of consolidation where the larger players come in, either by virtue of having become bigger
companies or having more access to capital. They either out-compete or outright buy the smaller
competitors. And then when the space becomes more consolidated,
you have less generous marketing approaches,
thereby you have lower net customer acquisition costs,
less overall marketing spend, higher margins,
better performance, better companies.
So that's the inflection point I'm waiting for.
It could happen in a couple of years,
but I'd like to see more consolidation with the regional books.
And as a result of that, I'd like to see marketing come down for the sector as a whole.
But when that happens, I'm bullish on the growth in this.
Do you know where my question's going?
Yeah.
Robinhood and these prediction markets.
And these prediction markets.
Yeah, I think prediction markets are going to boom.
Stock talk, that cost per acquisition,
it maybe changes a little when they're also trading on that app
and that user goes from worth $10, $20 per year
to worth $200 per year to them and that person.
There's probably a different person trading than,
well, actually, maybe the person doing options in Robinhood
is similar to the person trading sports betting.
But I don't know.
I wonder if that's a thing.
I don't think the prediction markets are going to get anywhere close to sports betting because it's just like yay or nay, right?
Well, that's what's available now.
You have no lines or odds or individual props or anything.
Yeah, no, that's true.
I'm not saying it's going to get as big as sports betting either.
But I do think prediction markets are going to expand pretty rapidly and people are just going to be betting
on everything i mean they already are the only thing that's missing in prediction markets i mean
there's already you can take a bet on pretty much anything between kalshi or uh polymarket if you go
between those two sites and just like you could find a bet on anything. And so the bets already exist. The issue is liquidity.
There's not much liquidity on the more obscure bets.
Like you'll see multi-million dollar liquidity on pretty obscure things.
But, you know, the further down the ladder you go,
you'll start getting into the zone where there's, you know,
100,000 in volume traded.
And in some cases, you just can't place big bets.
And so that needs to change and that'll improve
just as a result of adoption but i do think prediction markets are like not just the short
term phenomenon i think people like to bet on things and i think offering flexibility for people
to bet on things that they can't traditionally bet on is is a huge opportunity so i am very bullish
on prediction markets but um look i'm bullish on betting in general, gambling in general.
I mean, gambling has been a stalwart part of our society for so long.
And, you know, now you're increasing access on a digital basis for people to gamble from their phones anywhere.
Do I think it's healthy for society?
That's an entirely separate debate.
We could have that conversation separately. But, you know, do I think it's healthy for society. That's an entirely separate debate. We could have that conversation separately.
But, you know, do I think it's going anywhere?
I mean, you know, I've been very bullish on the growth of the space for a long time, but it's different to be bullish on the growth of the space.
I mean, the space has grown, right?
I mean, that's objectively true.
The space has grown enormously in the last couple of years as legalization is furthered.
But timing stocks,
in my opinion, is not just about knowing the industry is going to grow. You have to capture
the upside at the right time. Like it was the same thing. Like, again, my best investment ever
was Tesla in 2015. When I made that investment, I made it because I felt like EVs were getting
close to an inflection point. And granted, I was two and a half years early. I had to sit through a lot of volatility
with that stock waiting for what I thought
was gonna happen to happen.
And so I've learned lessons from that too.
And I'm like, look, I don't wanna sit in a theme
that I know isn't ready yet.
And so from that perspective,
am I bullish on sports betting?
Absolutely.
Do I wanna go with size into those stocks yet? not quite yet i'd like to wait for some consolidation
i think there's a scenario where these sportsbooks add prediction markets to them
and on top of what they're already offering which draft kings did reverse it's out five percent by the way um but no and
you're right stock talk the other point i would add to this is you have a couple of issues where
local governments or state governments um are are either fighting back or creating like where
like in florida for example i think you can only trade on that hard rock or seminal or whatever
it's called um but outside of that i mean you think about like draft kings for example, I think you can only trade on that Hard Rock or Seminole or whatever it's called. But outside of that, I mean, you think about like DraftKings, for example, I think it's in
25 states. I'll have to double check that. Last time I checked, it was like 20 to 24.
And there's still a high ceiling, in my opinion, for the continued expansion of the space. And I
agree with you that it is going to continue growing and it's been around forever and now it's more accessible the other key thing i think that happens very soon
is the ui of your streaming or whatever you know youtube tv or whatever you watch sports on
i believe that there will be live odds and the ability to actually make bets on your tv very
soon too yeah i agree that's a logical next step.
Like while you're watching sports
to have like a little bit of like a sub bar
at the bottom of the screen,
you apply your phone and just like bet live
by like scanning a QR code or something.
Yeah, I agree.
I mean, it may not even be that complicated,
but I mean, I think this is largely why Disney
bought ESPN or not bought ESPN,
but it started to leverage espn with espn
batting these things but um i think disney will probably be one of the first to do it um and
yeah the others will follow with partnerships probably or maybe outright acquiring networks
i mean i think the logical next step for draftraftKings, honestly, is a rebrand. I know that sounds crazy to some people, but I think they've outgrown the name of the company.
I think they should rebrand.
I think it's stupid to be called DraftKings now.
I mean, they started off as like a fantasy draft company.
It's like, why the hell are you still called DraftKings?
You're like one of the biggest online sports betting companies in the country.
But I don't know.
Maybe that's not as important,
but I do think they should do that.
That's just a side point.
And that did reverse.
Well, to be fair,
everything in that space
is we're talking about
is branding and small,
different things that you can get
or like content or something like that
as opposed to
you can't really compete on Lions.
I find DraftKings confusing. I don't really bet that much so i like i prefer fan duel that's it and then now i haven't even tried both of them are poorly named companies
like i know that doesn't matter but like i think they're both poorly named companies like fan
duel and draft kings like what the hell like you guys are just the biggest sports betting companies
in the country like i, I don't know.
They originally launched trying to get in, you know, with a foot in the door and, like, work their way into.
As sports betting was opening up in society, I guess we'll say, you know, across the board.
But the other thing is, I think as this growth has happened, I feel like the acquisition cost is going to go down a little bit.
I mean, maybe with these prediction markets,
it's going to go up because we're not going to keep paying to get more
people on.
I think the big,
I don't think they're going to keep offering these a hundred dollar
incentives.
I think the big difference in the analogies that we're kind of making
between brokerages and,
and online sports betting companies,
the big difference to me is like what I've always viewed, not always viewed Robinhood
as, but when I, when I bolstered my Robinhood position last year at the start of last year,
which I'm fucking glad I did because it's been an amazing performing stock.
But when I really went into size and Robinhood, what my thinking was that, Hey, this has just
become a play on the market, right?
This has just become a high beta play on the market itself
because as stocks go up,
the people who have money at Robinhood,
their AUMs go up, right?
And so when we're in a bullish market,
it seems like this is a stock
that is just destined to perform
the same way that a lot of other new age brokerage stocks, I think, will begin being treated, especially if they could pin the type of growth Robinhood's pinned in net new accounts on a quarter over quarter basis.
If you can pin that kind of growth, then you're just exponentially increasing your exposure to a rising market.
And so when the market corrected, Robinhood went down a lot on this rebound.
It's gone back up a lot.
It's like back at 50 bucks now. And I think that's one thing that these guys won't be able to benefit from because as we know, sports betting is not a profitable endeavor for most
people, right? I mean, most people are not like highly profitable sports bettors. The vast majority
of people lose money sports betting. And so I think that's the
difference is that the customer acquisition, the wheel of turnover and the stickiness of customers
is going to be still difficult to execute on because it's going to be very enticing if you're
a customer who's run out of, or let's say you put $500 into a DraftKings account, you lose a bunch of bets, you run out of money, and then you see an ad for FanDuel that says,
well, if you deposit $50, the FanDuel will give you an extra $50. Those offers are perpetually
exciting to that consumer base because, again, the vast majority of them are not growing their
sports betting accounts, which investors, on the contrary, when the market is growing up,
their accounts are growing. So I think that's a little bit of a tailwind difference
in terms of like market growth per se, and how that benefits the companies. But yeah, look,
over time, you're right. I think customer acquisition costs will come down as a result
of growth, because you'll be able to out compete these guys in certain markets, you'll be able to
offer better initial incentives. And to the
extent that the products are sticky, I don't think they're very sticky, but every product is sticky
to some extent, whether you say it's sticky to 10% of customers or 15, just by virtue of convenience,
there's some level of stickiness. So if you're able to leverage your size to capture more market
share than your competitors quickly enough,
then even with an unsticky product, you can become a market leader pretty quickly.
And I think that's what DraftKings has frankly done.
You know, of course, the last few. I'm pretty, I'm pretty surprised how much ESPN bet has failed.
I thought that, you know, with the, it's not taken what I thought, you know, with
the Disney and ESPN distribution. So a failure from what I thought it was know, with the Disney and ESPN distribution.
So a failure from what I thought it was going to do.
That hasn't met expectations.
That's fair.
I think part of the reason why is because they haven't integrated it well into the actual ESPN apparatus.
Like, it's still like Disney is sort of, I guess, keeping sports betting at arm's length in a way.
And maybe that's a brand protective move but i don't know
like it seems like most of their marketing around espn bet has been in the in the vein of like
these offhand ads they'll run on espn like late night or they'll run it like you know on a big
sporting event they'll be like oh yeah you should go to the espn bet app and. I just think there should be a greater degree of integration. Like, you know,
like Emp was bringing up, like, I think you should be able to turn on ESPN, like watch a basketball
game on ESPN and have betting cues at the bottom of the screen, you know? Now, should that be
optional? Probably. I don't think everyone wants that. There's some people that just want to watch the game, but you should have some kind of integration for that, you know,
or maybe an overlay on your phone with the app where you can, you have the ESPN bet app and you
can just raise it to the TV and it shows you like the available live bets. That would be a pretty
simple technology to create for a company as big as Disney. That's not like groundbreaking tech.
And it's a pretty simple step.
And I think it would increase adoption widely.
So I think there are technology integration steps that need to be taken for ESPN Bet to really live up to its potential.
But I don't think it's a dead asset.
I think it'll do really well once they figure that out.
They are keeping it at an arm's length.
And, you know, they have like a lot of these shows
espn bat sponsored shows and they hardly ever promote espn bat like as an app like like pen
and any of that like i just never see that i don't know if that's a problem with location
if it just doesn't make sense to them or if it's a a disney issue but i agree they're completely bumbling here
yeah and i mean it's always been kind of disney's mo to do this even with like some of their mature
properties if you will like their mature content properties they keep it at arm's length from
disney you know they use like a disney sub brand to market it. And I get it,
right? Disney still wants to be this like family friendly brand. But I don't think you can have it
both ways in the sports betting environment, especially considering how competitive it is.
Like they have to really put it front and center if they want to see the product get adoption.
And like, I mean, I think there's still people out there, not people like us who are in the
markets every day. But I think there's still people out there who don't stare at the markets all day who don't even know Disney owns ESPN.
You know, and like they've owned ESPN for a long, long time.
I don't know how many, it's been decades, right?
I don't know how long they've owned it, but they've owned it for a long time.
And so there is like that the keeping it at arm's length has worked to a degree, but now
it's time to stop doing that if they
really want to see proliferation of the app.
1996.
There he goes, like 30 years.
We also had Lutnick speaking right right now by the way um he had some commentary kind of talking about
if countries open their markets the u.s the best offer they can get is 10 tariff rate
which i think we kind of already knew uh learning from today but this all ends up in 10% tariff rates for our major partners this will have been the biggest
panic about nothing if that's where it ends up well that's what it is but the question is what's
it going to be for china and what's it going to be for the other one europe and china is all
these other guys can be replaced that sounds brutal europe will be interesting literally
every other trading partner of the united states can be replaced outside of the European Union and China.
So if somebody wants to play hardball with us that isn't one of those two people, good luck.
They're not going to be able to.
And I think Trump said that in his speech today.
He said, look, if you're a smaller country that we don't necessarily want anything from, we're just going to tell you what the rate is.
And you're going to say yes or no.
Yeah, he said we're going to make the deal make the deal we're going to make a deal without them
yeah yeah that's crazy but i mean it's true like i mean you know if you're if you're cambodia let's
say like you do not have any negotiating power with the united states at all and so the united
states can literally tell you you have to do this and this, or we're going to stop buying Cambodian apparel tomorrow.
And then the Cambodian economy is screwed.
So, like, that sounds rough.
And I don't want anyone to think I'm minimizing the economic and civilian consequence of trade wars.
But the reality is, is the only two people that we need to sit
down and talk with us are the European Union and China. If they do it, then markets go higher,
in my opinion, and probably don't turn back. On the contrary, if talks with China go badly this
weekend, and we get a bunch of headlines on Monday saying, you know, China feels the United
States is not handling this sincerely and blah, blah, blah, blah, blah.
And, you know, we are going to stand our ground. Then I think you probably get a big sell off of the markets next week.
But so let's just hope, let's cross our fingers that we get positive news out of China this weekend.
And Trump said he wants to make a deal with Europe today as well.
Europe kind of threw some jabs this morning in terms of threats about what they can and can't tariff.
So hopefully Europe comes to the table as well. And if they both come to the table,
even if it takes a couple of months, I think net net, everything will be okay.
Might we have already induced a little bit of an economic slowdown? Sure. But our economy is
pretty resilient. So, you know, we'll see if we can mount a rebound in economic confidence into
the summer. And the summer is a good time to do that, frankly.
People like to spend during the tail end of the summer.
So, you know, we'll see if we can time that inflection in economic confidence well enough that you get some good data prints coming into August and September.
And that'll be a good support for the markets.
But, you know, there are a lot of institutional entities off sides right now.
I need to go look at the data to see where the pain trade really is.
I haven't checked it at the end of this week,
but there are still a lot of institutional entities off sides.
I think they're waiting for a little bit more clarity on the macro side.
But once they get back in, especially if we're back over the 200 a day,
that's the type of stuff
that sends you back to the highs. So let's see, take it one step at a time. We're still trading
under the 200-day moving average. We've been saying that over and over and over again for weeks,
but it remains true. And until you're above the 200-day, I think you have to operate with
a little bit of caution in terms of being willing to take profits if you're a trader or if you're an investor, being willing to not deploy all of your cash at once.
I still think you have to have that mentality.
Once we're above the 200-day, once we've proven that we can hold the 200-day, we see some consolidation of price above that level.
We see a little bit positive headlines getting thrown in the mix.
That's what I think your attitude can get more constructive. But like I said, I own enough stocks. I have enough long exposure to
where the markets go higher. Great. If the markets want to come back and give me some opportunities
to add some names that I didn't get to catch on the way back up. Great. I'll pick those up.
But if you're against the wall running 150 percent margin, you have no cash, you're, you
own a bunch of names that have rallied 30, 40% the last couple of weeks, and you don't
know why you own them.
If you're in one of those positions, you should probably take some profits at least a little
bit and just, you know, cool down because even if the markets do go higher, things will
set up again.
You know,
a great example that like the use of this of people is 2023 and 2024, the last two years,
right? Like in 2023, a lot of stocks went up a lot, right? And in January of 2024, if you took
the optic that stuff was too extended, you missed it, You missed out on another monster year, right? So again,
this depends on what style of investor or trader you are. I get that these things vary a little
bit from investors to traders to swing traders. But generally speaking, once the market restructures
itself, gets its head back above water, there will be a lot of opportunities that present
themselves.
There'll be a lot of stocks that will look a lot cleaner.
You'll have spots to risk off of.
You know, a lot of people down here have been buying names underneath all their moving
averages just because they felt like the value is compelling and then, you know, hoping they
rebound.
I mean, that works if you catch a nice rebound like the last couple of weeks, but it's not really disciplined positional trading or disciplined positional investing.
You want to buy stocks that have support beneath them so that you're not immediately in the red on your buy.
That's like the kind of the cornerstone rule, at least for me, when it comes to initiating new positions.
I don't want to buy something and then watch it go red on me right away. Right. And so how you avoid that is by finding stocks that have
spots to risk off of, you know, areas of meaningful support. And sometimes you need to wait for
reconstruction. Sometimes that means you're going to pay 10, 15% higher for the stock than you want
it to. But it also means you can hold it for longer. And it also means you can size it heavier.
So that's kind of, you kind of what I'm looking for.
Like I said, I've added a bunch of names.
I actually added a little bit more
to my Kratos position today on the dip.
I've added to a number of positions
over the last couple of weeks.
So I feel fine where I am.
I'm kind of in that sweet spot
where I have the flexibility
to down pedal my exposure quickly if I need to.
But if we keep going higher,
I own enough names that I want to own.
So, yeah, that's kind of how I feel.
Looking to Zlotnik
comments.
We want 50% of chips domestic
came out in the middle of that as well.
That I like.
That I like. That I like.
As much shit as I've talked about tariffs,
I do agree with that.
Probably more. That number probably needs to be higher,
to be honest.
What's Intel out?
And that was just a random number, so...
Intel.
A lot of people think Intel is going to be to be this one day beneficiary of what's
going on and i think the trump administration the same way they've showed support for boeing
they probably want to do the same for intel because trump has said you know it's this great
american company but i think to an extent you know you're going to see tsm become a very american
company very quickly you know i don't know to see TSM become a very American company very quickly.
You know, I don't know if people have paid attention to what's happened in the last few years, but they started off with a $15 billion commitment.
That was the first commitment they made back in 2021.
And that has since risen every single year.
It's now that commitment's now at $100 billion.
It was at $75 billion last year before Trump even came into office.
So that's an enormous commitment for TSM.
It's the biggest foreign commitment they've ever made.
In fact, they haven't made any foreign production commitments at all outside of the United States.
And so if things go according to plan, by the end of 2026, you will have two nanometer chips being produced in the united states
like that is a big deal like a really big deal um you're talking about the most cutting-edge
chips in the world made here the amount of geopolitical leverage that's going to give
the united states is insane you know all it's good what it's effectively going to do is it's
going to transfer the geopolitical leverage that lives on the island of Taiwan right now, and it's going to incrementally transfer that leverage to the United States. More important than any policy we pass, more important than any social policy, more important than any economic policy, more important than anything is that we build chips here.
And so, yeah, I'm glad it's happening slowly.
But I think in a decade from now, you'll look back and say, wow, Taiwan Semiconductor is a pretty American company.
I think that's what people are going to be saying, because they're going to have that point, three fabs up and running in the United States.
Not even by that point,
they'll have three fabs up and running in the United States by the end of
2027,
including their third Arizona fab,
which will produce cutting edge.
I think the question goes back.
So conventional wisdom in the past,
I always talked about Taiwan as that Silicon shield.
I wonder what it does in that direction.
Yeah,
we're taking the Silicon Shield away from them.
Unfortunately for Taiwan, but fortunately
for us.
We're in a weird
interim period. Yeah, we are.
We are in a weird interim period, and
obviously the concern is...
It's national
defense, right?
Sorry, what did you say?
It's like national defense and security right isn't that
the whole guise of this what do you mean like the guise of us taking back semiconductors
well yeah i mean that's been the narrative right is semis still all this stuff is uh under the
guise of national security national defense is that really the case or is that the excuse to
get it done no i think it is i think chips are
i think steel maybe you can debate although actually i don't think like since the beginning
i've talked about three industries that i am in favor of tariffs on right i criticize the tariff
policy broadly but i mentioned three specific industries that i am in favor of tariffs on
those are semiconductors steel and aluminum and shipbuilding. And the Trump administration is in favor of tariffs in those areas as well. So on that, I agree with them
wholeheartedly. And I do think all of those areas are areas of national security, frankly.
And the reason for that is because, again, the way you have to, like, everyone can sit around
all day and be like, is this an area of national security? Is this an area of national security?
The real way to determine it is a simple game theory analysis.
What everyone should ask themselves is, in a state of world war, what would the United States absolutely have to produce at home?
And if you can answer that question in your head, those are the industries we need to reshore.
Not plastic toys, not apparel, frankly, not even really automobiles.
You know, some people make the argument that automobiles need to be reshored because automotive manufacturing capacity can be flexible.
Right. In World War Two, for example, we used Ford factories to build B-2 bombers, that's why people think automotive manufacturing is necessary, because
it offers this outlet of industrial production that can be flipped on its head in a time
of war.
So if you want to make that argument, sure, that's a discussion that can be had.
But if you take automotives out of it, those three industries at least have to be homegrown
because otherwise, in a time of war, we'll be asking China for those things.
And you can't. They won't give it to us because whenever that war does come,
they'll probably be on the other side. I don't imagine that in the next world war,
China and the United States are going to be buddies. So that's why. And it's going to be
painful and brutal and there's going to be price interruptions in the meantime. But those industries, I do not see an argument that we shouldn't reshore them. And I do think the national security characterization is fair when it comes to those industries specifically. I think there's other industries where maybe it's been used a little bit flexibly, that term. But those industries specifically, I think it's relevant.
flexibly that term, but those industries specifically, I think it's relevant.
You were talking about the people that have bought or they're adding to positions,
which is where we're at in the market here as we come into the 200-day area.
One thing hit me today, we were talking on Spaces earlier and everybody, you know, keeps bringing up the point, you
know, we were up 45% the last two years, which is true.
We were very overcooked, but I was just curious, like how that was averaged out, you know,
if you go back, you know, before COVID even.
So I did that.
I actually posted this up top.
up top. So I did the math on it. If you look back over the last five years, so January 2020 to 2025,
So I did the math on it.
we're up 82%. That's 12.6% return. And obviously we've come down, we're below that at this point.
When you look at the S&P, the S&P return on average has been 10 to 10.4. So this resets
basically and where we're at today,
we're basically right in line with your average year-over-year return.
I can't hear him. Is that me?
Dog talk probably got wrecked.
Yeah.
Sam, do we still have you up here?
Yeah, I was just about to post something.
No, I heard all that.
I snucked out a bunch of posts i'm done all right we got stock talk coming back up here
by the way we haven't said this too much you guys are not following the speakers up here
if you're not following the host of the spaces stocks on spaces we've been doing this since
february 2023 that's a long time we have literally been doing these spaces for more than two years now
it's kind of weird
where are we at now
36.8 thousand followers
I think 100k is where this account
really should be at if you're asking me
but make sure you're following the host of these spaces
if you enjoy these
we're live every single Monday through Thursday
3 to 5pm Eastern
go in and follow that host.
Hey, 37K Organics, not
bad for an account that never tweets.
It's really good. I mean, we've been doing this
for two years. I'm not saying that, but I mean,
God, we've been doing this for so long. These
spaces get huge. We have probably
had tens of millions
of people, unique people
listening to the spaces, the stocks and spaces.
I don't think that's a crazy
number to say i am pulling this out of my ass but it's big news we definitely appreciate the
audience for sure yeah we appreciate you unless you don't follow the account then you suck
but uh yeah make sure you're following. We appreciate you all.
It's Thursday, which means the next time we'll be back here is Monday.
Sam, Em, Stock Talk.
Stock Talk, do you have anything you were going to say there?
No, I'm outside, so my audio probably sounds crappy.
Does it sound windy?
It doesn't sound great, but it doesn't sound as bad as I think you think it sounds.
It's not bad.
No, yeah, I missed Em's point because I was in the elevator.
Oh, Stuck, Stuck, I was just saying, I put this out, I was doing the math on it because
we've heard the narrative and the argument, which is a legitimate argument.
45% up the last few years, we have to come down.
Yes, I agree with that but
a lot of people asking for more pain and stuff like that where we're at today is below obviously
where we were in January but I ran the numbers just from 2020 last five years 2020 to 2025
it was an 82% gain in the market which averaged out over five years comes to 12.6. The S&P average is 10
to 10.4. So where we're, and we're obviously below where we were in January. So where we are
at today is essentially adding normalized return year over year on the S&P. Yeah. I mean, I think
the tricky part about that is like, we could do that with any arbitrary period right and make the
numbers work however we want it to you know we could do that over a 10-year period three-year
period two-year period and just be like hey look you know the net annual gain is relatively in
line with historical norms so everything's gravy but I just think I don't know I think that kind
of arbitrary time framing
isn't a great way to do it. The way I like to think about it is just, you know, in terms of
momentum. And I think if you look at most of market history, what you'll find is, is that
bull markets just last until something stops them. It's just how it works. You know, like if you look
at the tech bull market, you know, where Bank of America shared a graph on this, and they said hedge funds were net overweight tech for 12 years consecutively straight, and for all 12 of those years, tech outperformed. Right. Why? Because there was no momentum catalyst, momentum stopping catalyst in that 12 year period.
And so I agree with you. If this tariff thing resolves to 10 percent tariffs or 15 percent tariffs, then, yeah, this will have been not a momentum stopping event and the markets will probably go back to all time highs.
momentum stopping event and the markets will probably go back to all time highs. But if this
rally calling bluff is wrong and tariffs stay where they are, then I think this can be a momentum
stopping event. So like, I think effectively we were all kind of mocking Powell yesterday for
saying, I don't know, but I think it's the right answer in this environment. I don't think anyone
can give an educated answer on this until we know what tariffs are going to be for the long term, right? I mean, we can't operate
on the assumption that they're going to stay where they are because Trump has made it pretty
explicit that he wants them to come down, right? But does that mean he wants them to come down to
zero? I don't know. Does that mean he wants them to come down to 10%? I don't know. So that's
what complicates it, is that, and the same thing goes, forget about Powell, right? Like, think
about what these companies have said, right, on an individual basis. Many companies have outright
come out and say, we cannot provide edits to our guidance until we know the tariff rate, right? So
the truth is, is no one knows.
You know, this could have been just a bunch of panic about nothing if tariffs do come
down, but it could have been a bunch of panic about something much worse if they don't.
You know, I don't think we make new lows in this market unless we get a severe recession.
And I think we only get a severe recession if tariffs stay this high. That would be my thinking.
Yeah, to your point on the arbitrary timeframe, that's why I just went back and was like, okay,
COVID, we were down, then we're up, then we have the 2022 situation. I was just like, okay,
we can kind of capture this. But I agree with you. Ar can make numbers kind of say whatever you want i just thought that was kind
of an interesting perspective of of where we are at currently and and what the last five years has
looked like with essentially the covid crash and the the bear market plus these massive rallies
right this hot ai boom if you want to call it that over the last two years.
Yeah, I agree.
If you want to interpret like,
I kind of get what you're saying,
like, hey, some people say crash every five to seven years.
If you want to interpret the 2022 bear market as a crash,
then yeah, you could say that.
You could say, hey, in the last five years,
we've had two crashes, COVID and the 2022 bear market. Although I will say COVID crash lasted, what, three months?
And, you know, the rebound was literally a V-shaped recovery.
Most stocks, most popular stocks not only went back to the highs within three months, but went much higher because of the poor and liquidity.
So I don't know. It's really difficult in hindsight to go back and these periods and say, well,
I think the market is going to go high because it wasn't really a crash or 2022 was a crash.
So that counts as two crashes in five years. So now we don't get another crash for another five
years. Like it's difficult to take that perspective on it because all that historical data we look at,
like recession or market crash every
five to seven years, we're looking at it on an average basis, right?
If you go through the data, there have been periods where the markets crashed and didn't
recover for 10 years.
There have been periods where the markets crashed one year, rallied the next year, crashed
the year after, rallied again, crashed the year after.
There have been periods where markets went on 10-year bull runs and never crashed at all. There have been periods where markets went on a 12 and a half year bull
run, three-year bear market, and then back to a five-year bull run. I just don't love the idea
of contextualizing what's going to happen in the market based on the historical context of what
did happen. And I know Jeff would hate for me to say that if Jeff was up here, because I think the
Stock Traders' Almanac is great. I actually do read it at the start of every year. But I don't
use it to make a lot of my trading and investing decisions because, you know, I think every
circumstance is unique. I think every economy is unique. I think the backdrop to the market versus the economy changes very fluidly. Like, you know, a lot of great investors like to say the market never changes. It's the same thing over and over again. Like, I'm not in that camp. You know, I think things about the market do change. I think attitudes and levels of volatility do change.
And I think that change is a product of real things changing in the market, not just opinions
changing. But, you know, like I talked about this before, but the democratization of access
to brokerages, I think has genuinely changed the market. I think you have a more reactive
retail component now, a much bigger retail component,
a much more options involved retail component.
Yeah. Zero DTs.
Exactly. You go back to like, go back to the,
like ask anybody who traded stocks in my cousins who are older than me,
right? Like when they traded stocks in the early 2000s and it's funny,
people in Canada still do this.
There's people in Canada who don't have digital brokerage apps that still do this. And there's probably people in the United States that
still do. They would literally call their broker, tell him the limit price, and he would place it
before all this digitization happens. So access is not only superior, it is magnitude superior.
You can literally download an app, deposit 500 bucks, boom, you own a stock. It's like instant. And that combined with the fact that more retail owned stocks than ever,
we're opening five to 10 million new retail accounts every year. Retail is inherently
more reactive in markets than institutions are, right? There was a great report that came out
a couple of weeks ago that people were sharing on Twitter that said that retail does an average of five minutes of research before they buy a stock, right?
Institutions don't do that. So yeah, there's just so much about markets to change and it makes it
really hard to predict market future based on market history. And so I try to not do that
to the best of my ability. Yeah, I agree a hundred percent. We do have a hard cutoff right here. I
think that was a great way to end it. Appreciate you, Stock Talk. Follow all the speakers, of course. Follow that host account up here. And follow us right over to Wolf Financial for the Venture Capital and Private Investing Show. We'll open that in just a few moments. And Socks on Spaces, of course, will be back live every Monday through Thursday at Power Hour, 3 to 5 p.m.
Thanks, everyone.
We'll catch you guys next week on this account, and we'll catch you on Wolf Financial here in a few seconds. Thank you.
