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STOCK MARKET TALK
Recorded: Sept. 15, 2025 Duration: 2:01:18Space Recording
Short Summary
In a lively discussion, participants explored the potential for significant growth in the tech sector, highlighting Amazon's new augmented reality partnership, Meta's upcoming innovations, and the ongoing trends in AI and streaming services. The conversation underscored the resilience of major players like Apple and Google, emphasizing their capacity for adaptation and growth amidst market challenges.
Full Transcription
Thank you. Yo, yo, yo, yo.
What is up, everybody?
How are we doing?
Mic check, mic check.
I'm good.
You're all good.
All good.
Systems are go.
How is everybody doing?
I hope you are all doing well.
I hope the market is treating you well.
My portfolio is up 0.2%, but I have shifted it.
The BM&R is down 4%, so my guess is the market's doing pretty good today.
I changed up the portfolio and have no ETFs in here,
so I have to go over to a different place.
Q's up 0.7%.
SPY up 0.4%.
Not bad.
Okay, pretty solid day in the market.
Let me look at something else.
What do we have?
I need to figure a new way to look at the market,
because now that I've changed my portfolio,
it's a little harder to see.
Apple's not doing bad.
Tesla, billion dollar buy, and we're giving it back.
Are you surprised by that, Stocktock?
I am a little bit.
Yeah, I am a little bit, but the charge still looks great so we'll be fine I think you get internet feeds on this but we'll talk more about it later
yeah that was an interesting story Google break it above three trillion that
was a nice little psychological thing to break above and I saw this post
yesterday from stock talk as well that Saudi Aramco has been passed by Broadcom, I think it was.
We got seven stocks above them.
Close to being eight.
Taiwan, well, maybe.
First time since 2004.
And it's well above it, actually.
Meta has an event on Wednesday.
Amazon to launch augmented reality football coverage.
Financial Times.
All right, Stock Talk's going to cream over that in the second hour.
That's all we're going to hear about is the whole video thesis.
Apple's closer to being outside of the top three largest companies than it is to being number one now.
Well-deserved, well-deserved.
Is that a technical term, cream over?
Yeah, listen, this guy is going to talk about this for the next hour.
Brian, you leave.
You don't hear it.
So I don't know if you could know.
But I don't know if you've seen those venues.
There's that one venue that they always go to.
It's the screen in front of you, and it kind of looks like you're actually at the thing, at the game.
It's pretty cool.
And I imagine Amazon's going down some similar sort of route.
And he's going to tell you how they're going to start putting ads on your glasses for sports betting stuff.
I'll tell you about Genius.
All right. How is everyone doing today, though? Is there anything?
Before I kick it around, it's Monday. I'm good to go to each of the speakers and hear a little bit more about what you guys are watching for the week, how you doing.
I also had, honestly, such a crazy week last week, so I wasn't here. If there's any residual stuff. I missed the Apple event.
Wolfie Innovation, though, how you feeling?
What are we innovating?
Everything. I hear the AirPods are great.
Cosmic Orange.
Oh yeah, we're innovating the Go Gator colors.
Yeah, cool. They're innovative.
They lost another
AI person last week on Friday,
I think.
Innovating race to the bottom.
Also innovating...
I don't think you can say that
Apple doesn't innovate and Apple
can't create an AI product.
And then also say
Apple really doesn't innovate anymore.
No, no, but what I'm saying is
I can say that because
they have an entire R&D
department that's supposed to be handling
stuff and whether it was the TV,
the car, the
you know, whatever else you want to
speculate on,
every couple of years, there's like some sort of tailwind that they get off of speculation.
You know, one of my, one of my closest friends was one of the biggest, uh, Apple beat writers,
you know, on, on the internet for a while before he took his, his latest job, but they, they
actually try to do this, some of the stuff that gets leaked out it's
not just you know fud or or opium it's just they're always late to it and they don't actually
execute so i can say it doesn't mean they're not but my point let me let me say let me what i
actually i know what your point is your point is i can't dunk on them for not having ai but then
also dunk on them for losing their ai guy yeah and my and my
pushback is they have an entire r d department full of products that or full of suite of uh
products that come out over time whether it's whether it's on the software side whether it's
uh i forget what the headpiece thing they had uh released a couple years ago it's called something
like that so it's that. The stuff that they
focus on
for some of this
AI stuff,
they lean towards
the, what do they
call it? Spatial
computing.
Yeah, spatial computing.
They lean that way, but then they
miss the mark on how they delivered it and
then they and then they just instead of like revamping it and going the way that meta is going
with like the glasses they just scrap the whole fucking project basically so like that based on
how they run things that's why i dunk on it. And it's not, the losing talent part
doesn't mean that the talent that they have isn't, you know, savvy or good or any of that stuff.
It's just that, you know, whoever's steering that ship is clearly not steering it correctly.
It's the same knock that we have on some of these other companies that, you know,
we might, for a while, we talked about, you know, Google, I still talk about Google this way,
that the way the CEO delivers whatever messaging he's trying to deliver, for the longest time,
would not resonate the way that we wanted it to as shareholders. And I still think there's a lot of value in Google, for example,
if they can get that messaging across,
despite it crossing $3 trillion, right?
So, you know, I think the same thing with Apple.
I mean, come on.
I mean, Google, I mean, Google's at an all-time high,
crossed $3 trillion.
I mean, names are moving like they're not supposed to move.
Like, Google should not be moving like they're not supposed to move like google
should not be moving like this so uh i hear what you're saying but i'm like google's in a stratosphere
apple doesn't innovate i i'm with you anymore apple used to be one of the most innovative
companies they're just not anymore unfortunately and evan this is not a dig on you they're a fine
company there's nothing wrong with them but they just do not innovate. And that's the problem. Like, they need to innovate something.
They need to come up with something.
But I'm contemplating...
I actually think they're at a spot now
where if they took a shot on something
that is supposed to be, like, the next wave,
and they didn't take it in a weird way,
like, they didn't give me a headset that looked funny
when i put it on for example like if they just took a shot on something and they they didn't hit
i feel like they you know people would start to view them a little differently they don't do that
anymore that is that is the clear pathway the glasses zuckerberg is coming to me that's why
honestly when i'm thinking about where i'm allocating money
now i'm pretty excited about meta and that's what that's what worries me more about then
this argument that google's people are going to start switching over to a different smartphone
like i just don't i just don't see that over the next five years or decade and i think the apple
question is is can they get their act together and compete with meta on these smart glasses what is meta
going to release on wednesday and yeah i think but i mean people i mean google okay android has
a huge following right android is a very big product offering compared with apple right
depending whether it's in you know pick your android phone there's lots of different versions
of it i'm a Pixel guy myself.
Again, I don't have a problem with Apple.
I think they're a great company.
And, you know, I mean, this is not like, but what are they going to innovate?
What are they going to make this different?
Like, you know, when they came out with the iPhone, that was innovating.
When they came out with the iPod, first of all, that was innovating, right?
Where are they here?
They're just, they're a big, large
tech company that's just a very stable company. And what I mean by that is like, they're not going
away. They're not doing anything. You know, people want them to go out and buy and spend
tens of billions of dollars buying an AI company, but Apple doesn't do that. And I don't think Tim
Cook's going to do that. That's just, he doesn't want to make that his legacy.
So I think one of the, I agree with what everyone's saying about Apple, but this is something that I've talked about for years now.
These big companies like the Apples, the Googles, the Netflix, the whatever, they don't have to get back to where they were either in price or in greatness the same way they got there originally.
I mean, remember when Meta was dead because they bet on the metaverse and it didn't work out and they were $80 a share and everyone was saying big cap tech is dead and then it just done nothing but go rocket to the moon.
Yes, right now Apple is uh it's a commodity company i guess
they're just you know printing or they're just creating products kind of in utility yeah kind of
kind of utility however they've got cash right they've got cash they've got okay they've got cash
they've got talent they've got brand recognition They have all the things that they need for a fifth, sixth, seventh act.
Will they do it?
Maybe, maybe not.
But I think to count them out and to say like that,
that Tim Cook and everyone just sitting there going, yeah,
I guess we're just going to have a new version of the iPhone next month.
I mean, I don't think that's it.
So I think you just have to keep, I think we have to keep our minds open.
Yes, right now Apple is not exciting.
Brian, can I take the other side of this with you?
You did.
I'm taking the other side of what you just took.
Are you taking the third side?
Is there another side I don't know about?
Yeah.
I want to go back to Meta with you.
Meta got bailed out by the AI move.
Because if we didn't have this ai move all the money there
was because the ai is spending dwarfs with their spending on reality labs labs and losing right
it's just like incredible so everybody just doesn't care about reality labs anymore and the
fact that they you know spending 10 billion dollars a year and losing 9.5 of it on that
nobody cares that's because he's early and not wrong so what did
and what did netflix get bailed out from when when they're at 167 back in june of 2022 what
bailed them out because they they won the war they won the streaming war okay but this is my point
like you never you never know like i i i love you mike but like when when we try to predict what will
or won't take the market to the next level or a company to the next level, we never know.
I mean just by definition, we don't know.
All I'm saying is Apple is not a bunch of idiots sitting around just going, I don't know what we're going to do.
They've got the power.
They've got the money.
They've got the brand.
Will they do it?
they do it i'm not saying they will but i'm saying i think you count apple out at your own peril
I'm not saying they will, but I'm saying I think you count Apple out at your own peril.
so the the one the one thing that i'm like pushing back on against that comment that you made was
you said they have the talent so this is like the third thank you third third headline in like a
month now of like senior level talent uh at the company or like talent that they've that they've
had certain projects that they that they're working on that's supposed to be the next iteration of
whatever they're gonna come out with that are leaving so so if you you know a few years ago
when people were giving the tesla bull thesis right when it was going into mass market one of
the main drivers that people kept pointing to was for you know the exiting? When it was going into mass market, one of the main drivers that people kept pointing
to was for, you know, the exiting engineering class, it was one of the top, like, three
companies or four companies, whatever, that people wanted to work for. Like, I don't think that Apple
has that cachet currently. I think it's, like, everything you just said is, like, pretty safe,
right? Like, if I want to have a safe career and just have my safe little thing and focus on my niche and not have to worry about, you know, pushing the envelope, I go work there.
And that's not a bad thing.
They have the cash and they have the market cap to kind of support that.
drive or whatever it's going to be and none of us know what it's going to be i feel like you do
have to have in-house talent that sees the value and staying to build something more i should see
more headlines of so-and-so left to go work at apple than i should see so-and-so left apple to
go work somewhere else i don't think there's an argument that apple's not the hip company i'm just
saying sometimes when we think we know what will happen or we try to predict
what we think will happen, not only do we miss what's going to happen, but we're not
open to what could happen.
I'm just saying, okay, I get it.
Apple's not the hot company.
It's not maybe where you want to have your money.
But if it starts to change, you got to keep your mind open because I think they've got
all the levers in place to do something transformative with their companies.
Will they do it?
We don't know.
But I wouldn't count them out is all I'm saying.
So, Brian, I do own some Apple stock that I bought back in April after that little pop on their AI stuff.
So I'm not against the company.
I just, for years now, they haven't innovated.
There's better places to allocate your capital is what you're saying.
I get it.
Yeah, I get it.
Yeah. I mean, I'm waiting for that innovation, allocate your capital is what you're saying. I get it. Yeah, I get it. Yeah.
I mean, I'm waiting for that innovation, right?
You know, show me something.
Give me something.
Do something.
You know, the event last week, the iPhone, it was just another iPhone.
It was, yes, it's the best, the fastest, whatever, the greatest iPhone we ever made.
And it was in the wash.
I mean, I'm not disagreeing with it, but it was nothing innovating about it that was awesome show me something please
and that's all I'm waiting the fact that that Apple has Siri on their phone and
it sucks so heavily right so bad that there's like a curb your enthusiasm bit
about it right that that tells you like they've got problems in this company
still right I'm just saying they've got the money,
they've got the brand, blah, blah, blah.
I already did it.
I just wouldn't count them out.
Keep them in my rear view mirror, but keep an eye on them.
And I agree with you, there's nothing wrong with that.
Maybe you always keep some money there,
but I'm like, show me something.
Please give me something.
Let's move it on to the next one that happened last week.
Wait, wait wait wait the
one lever they're gonna pull ethereum treasury company just hear me out that's god help us all
god help us all let me ask you let me ask you one last question on apple if tim cook were to step
down right if he were to say yeah yeah i'm moving on i'm gonna do charity stuff do you think that
the the company forget it would obviously depend on who they were putting in there but Do you think that the company, forget, it would obviously depend on who they
were putting in there, but do you think just that announcement there would pop the stock higher?
I think it goes pop higher. I think you're right. I agree.
Tim Cook is a very conservative, safe guy. I 1,000% agree.
And we could look back in 10 years and say that Tim Cook was the transition out of Steve Jobs,
right? He matured that company. He got it to where it was supposed to be so it would be stable and
then fill in the blank stepped in and that was the next act for apple is the guy the guy before the
guy the guy before the guy behind the guy right well i just mean that yes a guy behind the guy
that i mean like in the nfl for example like when when you move on from uh an elite quarterback
unless you're green bay packers
you just happen to have a new one lined up uh they usually have they usually get a guy who's
before then the guy who actually will carry him right torch right all right stock talk i was
going to move us on uh is there any comments you want to make about Apple in the conversation? I mean, you know what I'm going to say.
All right, let's move on.
The other event that I was interested in and I was actually at was the Robin Hood event.
Did anyone, what were the conversations like that on the spaces last week?
I don't think any of us were too overwhelmed with what they had.
I think Stock Talk talked about it most because he has the big like the highest concentration probably in his yeah but he just talked about how they didn't add a watch list i heard that like all right we get it no watch list
i'm selfish what can i say i want my i want features for myself but i mean short i think
the short selling thing i don't think like there's no way retail should be shorting stocks and that can't be, that probably has to be a higher fee area.
I'd imagine you're not just like it.
Can I steal this conversation?
Sure.
Stock chart, you there?
Stock talk.
Yeah, what's up?
So I've been really contemplating the bubble board today.
I've been really contemplating the bubble word today because I keep looking at
names like Google and Oracle and STX and Western Digital and Micron,
some of these moves.
And I thought this was a good conversation to have.
And this does not mean in any way it needs to end any time in the near future,
but I am really starting to feel we're entering into a major bubble here.
And it's starting to worry me if we don't get a kind of correction you're assuming that this is going to it can go on for another
year plus don't misunderstand me but there's a dead ending coming to this if this doesn't
at some point come in i i'd love to have somebody else's thoughts on this besides mine
i think i mean yeah i think i think we are in a bubble i think we've been in a bubble but um
but it's a pretty bubble with a nice shape yeah it's a pretty, but... But it's a pretty bubble with a nice shake.
Yeah, it's a pretty bubble.
It's a technically pretty bubble.
That's one good point.
That's a nice comment, by the way.
Pretty bubble.
I've never heard that.
That's really nice.
Can anyone tell me the last time the markets crashed when the S&P 500 was above the 200-day?
The answer is never.
Right?
So markets don't crash with the S&P 500 above the 200-day.
So is the crash coming?
Yeah.
I mean, of course it's coming. When? I don't crash with the S&P 500 above 200. So is a crash coming? Yeah, I mean, of course it's coming.
When? I don't know.
I mean, we get one on average every 5.68 years or something is what the math says.
You could have counted the 22 bear market, maybe, depending on your perspective.
If you wanted to count that as a crash, I think it's fair game to count as a crash.
You could have counted the 27 peak to trough decline earlier count that as a crash i think it's fair game to count as a crash you could have counted the 27 peak peak to set peak to trough decline earlier this year as a
crash if you wanted to i mean the difficulty when you're trying to contextualize these things is
like what is a crash is it is it like a covet style crash where you know equities go down by
40 or 50 percent in a matter of four or five days, and then they recover the entire move in a matter of four to five days? Or is it a steady decline like 22? Is it a six-month-long bear market?
It just depends on how you're going to characterize a crash. For me, whenever I see moments in which
there's a huge amount of froth removal in the market, whether that happens over a year-long period or a six-month period, in my view, I contextualize that as a correction.
Now, we had corrections and then subsequent corrections very soon after.
Yeah, even in the last five years, that's happened.
But to your question about if this is a bubble, first of all, yes, I agree it's a bubble. But I think the difficult part about this bubble versus maybe the dot-com bubble is that in the dot-com era, we were bidding these companies up.
Well, not we. I wasn't there, but some of you were.
We're bidding these companies up in anticipation of the Internet being this phenomenon that was going to drive enormous amounts of value. And at the time, many companies who had anchored themselves to website names had no real product
or it wasn't adding to their market penetration.
They just had a participation flag for the internet era.
The difference this time is that I do think there's real productivity at the end of this.
The question is, do we get there soon enough?
If we don't get there within the next
two calendar years,
if we don't start seeing meaningful productivity from AI,
then yeah, AIR has to come out of a lot of these names
and it will.
But yeah, I agree we're in a bubble.
When it pops, I think it's entirely dependent
on the context of when AI becomes productive and useful.
And I think we need to delineate
between crash and correction.
You kind of did there.
Because 2022 was a correction, right? And 2022 was painful for people, right? Because we would
have these pops and people think it's over and then we would relentlessly go down. But I will
argue that that sort of action is actually better longer term for the market than what we saw.
I'll call the tariff a crash. That's the tariff crash, right?
I will call COVID a crash. I will call the financial crisis, at least at the very end,
a crash. And I think the problem is, is that a lot of people in the markets haven't been in a
relentless 22 sort of market, right? The market goes down. They think, oh, this is a crash. It's going to
last 30 days, 45 days, and they start buying stuff at the lows. That's the thing that could
really mess people up, I think, is another 2022 style market or a traditional bear market that
goes 18 to 24 months. I think, Brian, you just hit on something, right? I don't even have 10%.
I would relish a dip to the 50-day, i would i would take that and be buying heavily there i don't think we're
anywhere near the end of this market but i i look at this activity and i happen to know a little bit
about you know 1997 and some of you guys do here too and i was trading back then i'm a little older
than a lot of you guys here scott's not here today, him and I are about this page. I look at some of these moves, I'm like, God, this is not healthy action.
This is just not healthy action.
And we can't get a pullback in this market.
And that worries me, but I'm not shorting, right?
I'm staying long.
I'm generally trading long.
I take it back.
I did short Tesla today out of the gate because i thought
that move was just stupidly after the three-day move where they had front run it because somebody
obviously knew they were buying he was buying um we could talk about that another time but i just
think like we're at this point where we need a pullback here you need something here to reset
some of these things otherwise if this just keeps going, it gets harder and harder. And that's when I get where I, that's when my fear really goes up. But I agree. This is a prettier
guy. Sorry. I've been around since probably you were around maybe a little bit before. And
one of the things that I always have found when we get to these bubble markets is we get what I
call personality stocks, right? Now there's always some, right? There's always your game stops.
Put, talent, fear, your picture name. Yeah, right
You're in your testers, but like you find these little tribes that just this is their stock, right?
Whether it's oklo or nbis or you know what the and they're just so into these things and all reason goes out the window right anytime
Something breaks down technically they tell you how it's a time to buy this one and they tell you what the story is and I feel like these these personality stocks there's so many of them these
days again this is anecdotal these aren't things you can trade off of but they're all parts of the
big puzzle that you put together this tapestry some of its technical information some of its
anecdotal information some of its fundamental and you know would say, I feel like we're in the sixth
inning, fifth or sixth inning if this is a nine-inning game. We've talked a lot about this.
People that were back there in the dot-com boom, I thought we would never see a market as crazy as
that last two to three years, the run-up to the 2000 top. And I'm wrong because we're in it.
We're in it, and I think past it.
Especially when you take into account things like SPACs and shit coins and treasury crypto.
I mean it's just crazy and everything is going up.
So yeah, we're going to crash and it's going to be bad and it's going to clean a lot of the crap out of the system.
But is that going to happen tomorrow?
Probably not.
It's probably going to happen when we least expect it my expectation
is we go up for at least another year we may get a correction or two in the meantime but i think we
go up for another year so i'm not trying to be bearish right i just i thought this was a good
conversation you're being a realist we're being realistic right yeah yeah it's a good conversation
to have because we're all peers here and sometimes it's good to talk about this in front of people that have been through this and other people.
Because sometimes you're just on an island.
So it's good to talk about stuff like this.
So thank you.
I appreciate you guys' input.
Yeah, I think one thing also for the new traders who maybe haven't seen a real drawdown in their portfolios before
or during the last few, maybe they gave back all their profits or something.
My philosophy is pretty simple in the markets and it's worked for me.
I stay long almost all the time.
Okay.
And when markets break down, I cut my exposure heavily.
That's what I did in February.
That's what I did in 2022.
Anytime the markets
break down below the 200-day moving average, there's aggressive selling, stocks, market-leading
stocks don't have intact daily structure, or in some cases, don't even have intact weekly structure.
That's when you should be concerned about markets. We are nowhere close to that. Market leaders are
all above their 9 and 21 EMAs. The S&P 500 can't even give up the 9 EMA,
let alone have any kind of decent pullback. There's an enormous amount of inflows. In fact,
I saw a great post this morning from Lisa from Bloomberg. She posted that equity inflows into
the United States assets are at their highest hedged level in history. So more equity inflows are being paired with hedges
today than ever have been, which to me still says we're not at euphoria, right? If you were in a
stage of euphoria, those inflows would be unhedged, right? You would not have a higher percentage of
hedged inflows versus unhedged inflows if the market was in a state of euphoria.
That's a pretty simple deduction to make, at least in my opinion.
Now, when that starts changing, you know, and some people are going to absorb themselves with CTA positioning, thinking that that's signal and it's not.
If you want to think at a higher level and ignore CTA positioning, which you should, even though people think that there's something to be deducted off of that. If you ignore CTA positioning,
you actually look at net inflows and equities, you will see a signal before this music stops.
And you will have time to get out if you're nimble. You're going to give back profits.
If you're somebody who stays long and doesn't try to predict market crashes
and deals with them when the bridge
is in front of you to cross,
if you're one of those people,
you're not going to top-tick the market.
You're not going to, your equity curve
isn't going to close the year at the top
if you operate that way.
But it will allow you to capture more momentum
and more upside when the markets are relentlessly going up, which they usually do, right? Markets
can stay irrational far longer than any of us can imagine. So that's my model. Some people have
different models. Some people like to be in cash, you know, at the end of a quarter that they're
suspicious about or whatever. I'm almost never in all cash.
You know, if I am lowering my exposure, I'm lowering it, lowering my margin exposure,
lowering my options exposure, lowering my peripheral positions.
But like my core positions, Robinhood, Tesla, Amazon, Centrist, Nebius, I'm never selling those.
The cost base is too low.
The markets could crash and those stocks still wouldn't go back to my cost base.
I'd just buy more of them so yeah anyways everyone has a philosophy but that's
the way i operate so to to piggyback on the like the euphoria conversation um you know we've had
moments of like euphoria pull forwards and like 2021 was a good example uh if you look at positioning and
you guys you talked about hedge positioning but you just look at positioning that that hedge
positioning a lot of it happened during april and then the subsequent months after it and then if
you look at the opposite of that from a positioning uh perspective the you know the
all premiums and and you know the upside volatility on calls isn't anywhere near where you would see euphoria.
So if like you look out three months, 25 deltas are trading at a 10 vol, for example.
So that basically tells you that, you know, people are still reluctant.
reluctant and until you either get a blowout that kind of catches people offsides to the downside
and it goes below where the the peak positioning uh to the downside is which would probably be
just like a an event nobody's kind of expecting uh or the inverse of that happens where now people
have to either replace you know positions with calls or they have to chase performance or whatever.
Like the euphoria is not going to be there for a while.
So, you know, I've come on a couple of times in the last couple of weeks and just been like, based off positioning, based off that, if you're one of these people that, like I'm a trader trader I look for concentrated positions look for constant a
place I can concentrate a bet I'd like take Tesla the last couple weeks for example and try to just
like maximize opportunity and then you know as as it works out or it doesn't work out I flatten out
or I adjust accordingly and you know if you're not that kind of person like you want to see some of these gauges start
to flash red whether it's like you know people starting to pay up for calls out of the money
that's still kind of pay uh or whether it's uh people abandonageddon uh where you know an inverse volatility uh uh inverse volatility um
contracts were were basically being they're selling they're basically selling vol and then
it explodes and the volatility product explodes and it causes causes this short-term reset on the markets.
And then you go to 2020, 2019, 2020, you had COVID, which was unexpected.
Go to the beginning of the year in that short window from Biden to Trump.
Shortly thereafter, we had the deep seek.
And then the next thing was the Trump tariff stuffiff stuff right so outside of events like that you
either want to see an event like that nobody's pricing in that kind of readjusts things which
is more it's going to be more violent in a short-term period because people would be so
positioned off sides from the long side or you need more people to get more position to the long
side uh on out of the money calls like lack of hedging, etc.,
etc. That's the only way you get
these squeezes
that everybody's kind of talking about.
So yeah, until you see it, go for it.
Let me ask you about volatility today.
Markets are up, and VIX
is up 7%, so the high of the day.
You have any significance
on that?
If you look at where it bid, just from a chart perspective,
basically bid right back to where it gets bid early February,
where it got bid previous to that.
I don't really see it.
I don't read too much into the one-day vol thing here.
I think this is just an anticipation of the Fed event.
If you, you know, I saw a tweet earlier, which now I don't remember where I saw it, but it basically was talking about in terms of, you know, zero DTE participation or short term vol participation going into a Fed event, we're at the lowest
spot that we've been in since the Fed announcement in December.
And so just go pull up a chart on the Fed announcement in December.
It was like, I think it was the 18th.
You get basically right back to where we're at right now.
And it goes from this 15 level to like 28 in like two days or something
like that. I think we had a one day, 3% sell off. So from that vantage point, yes, I'd say that like
it means something because like if people aren't positioning for, you know, any kind of material
sell off, and then you get this like zero DTE flywheel on Wednesday on the back of Powell,
could be a situation where we, you know,
vols so offsides on a very short-term basis.
But when you go beyond like this week, you know, hedges are pretty, you know,
pretty much still on the board.
So I don't know how long it would persist is kind of like what I'm getting at here.
But yeah, from a short-term perspective, just, you know just a one-week, maybe 10-day type of thing.
Yeah, it's worth mentioning that it's at a spot
where it usually gets bid.
And last time we were in a setup like this for the Fed,
it resulted in a 15 to 28 move in two days.
Cool, thanks.
So as we're talking here, historically, when the Fed cuts interest rates, when we're not in a crisis, the market tends to drop.
I'm not big sold on that, but I'm wondering if maybe that's the catalyst that gets a little bit of a tip here.
I know I'm asking for a lot to the 50-day, but I'm wondering.
I think it all depends on the messaging, right?
Do they say we're going to start cutting because the data is weakening?
Is that going to be the messaging from Powell?
And if so, does the market take it negatively?
I mean, the economy is weakening.
I think they're cutting because of the political pressure.
So I'd agree with both those comments.
But the other thing to kind of like that would put the bogey on it is, is he going is he or they going to target a cut cycle for the next few months, right?
Like, are they going to say, hey, this is the start of something?
Or are they going to double, triple down and say, you know,
that we're going to remain data dependent?
Because I think the way that the Fed funds is kind of pricing it is,
this is going to be the start of something possibly, right?
And I think Options Mike was just talking about, like, the data.
The data is being suggestive that you know the jobs numbers are are not as strong as people
expected and that's usually the start of them you know needing to ease but if they if he comes out
and he cuts let's say he cuts a quarter and he's just like hey you know we're going to cut a quarter
but we still have to maintain because of inflation and you know we're just going to stay dead dependent
or something like that that's what I want to see how people react to. I'll throw another piece in the historicalness,
like the 200-day moving average, just simple daily moving average on the S&P was mentioned
a few times. And if you look, just look back at like any time that we've got pretty extended from
that, it's an average of like 10 to 12% away from that 200 day moving average, if you just measure
it out. And we're only we're not even at 10% right now, even though it feels like we're super
extended. It's basically in the normal extension. If you go look at, you know, 2024, if you go look at 2024, if you go look at 2021, if you go look at 2018,
those extensions kind of blow off tops even.
They all, you know, you were 12, 13, 14% away from the 200-day moving average.
And right now we're just over 9%.
So are we in that territory?
Yeah, we're close.
But I mean, just by that historic metric as well it's it still has room to go
can i can i go back real quick to the to the vix uh just for brian real quick so i'm sure brian
since you've been around a long time you you probably already know this but for those that
don't the vix is a good tell just like as a range, right?
Like bumpers in a bowling alley.
The more important thing once, if and when the VIX starts to move is the rate of change on the VIX, right?
So once you get a rate of change that goes north of, I think, 50 on the VIX,
that's when if you don't have like an exogenous event that that that price shock starts
to get you know priced in uh which kind of goes in line with you know anytime you get a vix north
of like 45 i think as well um so i think for us what we want to pay attention to is that like if
you get a if we get a rate of change on the vix in the next week hypothetically right like let's say
something happens and you get a rate of change and it goes from in the next week, hypothetically, right? Like, let's say something
happens and you get a rate of change and it goes from whatever it's going at right now, I'm assuming
it's probably like 10%. It goes from like that 10% range to like a 50% range in a very condensed
period of time. 14. Okay. So yeah. So when you get from that point to like, let's say 50 plus,
that's where you want to see some sort, that's where you start to look for some sort of unwind in that shock selling, unless it's an exogenous event.
Good point.
All right, Mike, any other big topics you want to take us down mike mondays um
what else has got you worried yeah uh worried not really worried i mean listen i uh tesla
obviously now we know that some whoever he was buying his stock through they knew what remember he has three days to report
um when he does the inside deal so obviously some fund knew he was buying because they front ran that starting on thursday so this move on tesla today was definitely not a buying opportunity
here up at this levels uh how this holds up i mean i i love it from a you know he's showing
that he has,
he put a billion dollars in your money.
I'm not sure where he got the cash from,
but that's regardless of it.
You put a billion dollars in your own money,
it's your own company.
That's showing a lot of, you know, commitment.
You believe in it, which is great for the stock.
Is that the largest insider buy like that?
Like I was, I was having trouble playing with the LLA.
I don't know.
From everything I could find, Evan, that was because I asked you that question this morning, like that like i was i was having trouble playing with the ll i don't know the right prompt from
what from everything i could find evan that was because i asked you that question this morning
was that is the largest monetary it was inside it was huge um again i'm not the man his he always
tells says he's cash strapped so i'm not sure what he did to get the money for this right and i don't
i don't mean that in a negative way i'm like okay he most of his stock talk and i chipped in and gave it to
well it could have come from some of his other um companies right xai did an offering um spacex
didn't offer he could take some cash out right i mean i don't know where it came from. But that is a huge vote of confidence,
which I think is great. You know, I just keep looking for some rotation. Like, I'm in some
Microsoft calls. I've been sitting there since Friday. I'm in some Amazon calls I bought today.
I sold some. And I'm looking for some rotation out of these same damn names.
And I'm hoping the market at some point rewards me, but we'll see.
And I'm hoping the market at some point rewards me. But, you know, we'll see. Otherwise,
Otherwise, we go into Wednesday.
I don't think this market is going anywhere ahead of the Fed on Wednesday.
All right.
Tell me what Jerome Powell was going to say, Mike.
What are you thinking?
He's going to say that we're going to do a rate cut, but we're data dependent.
And we see signs of the –
Let me rephrase this.
SEP is coming out.
How many rate cuts do you think
the summary of economic projections will say?
Five.
Well, no, no, no.
Okay, to the end of this year.
Three.
Five through June of 2026.
All right, we'll see.
We'll see.
But my guess is they're not going to be that good.
What if he just comes out and drops it 100 and just says,
there you go, Trump, you deal with it?
Yeah, he'd be happy.
Maybe he's trying to keep his role.
Surprise, Powell wants his job, drops it by 150.
No, I'm kidding.
That probably the market...
Market will probably be down.
Stock talk, we hinted about the Tesla thing.
Mike is saying he's not surprised this down
and moving lower off of this.
I mean, the chart looks fantastic.
I mean, the market's holed up.
The thing's going higher.
Today was just a kickoff catalyst.
A billion dollars is a lot of money.
Pretty much no CEO on earth can afford to, you know,
take a billion liquid and buy stock on the open market.
I can't think of many others that can afford to do that.
So, yeah, it's a vote of confidence.
Is it a large portion of his net worth?
No, I mean, the guy's worth $400 billion.
So, you know, you have to contextualize it that way.
But he wants to uh
he wants to get voting power ahead of the vote i mean it's pretty obvious he bought it on the
open market on friday ahead of the compensation vote so he's gonna vote for himself it's pretty
obvious why he did it people think that this is like some kind of um last time he excused himself
from the vote i don't think he's gonna excuse. I don't think he's going to excuse himself.
I don't think he's going to... I don't think he's going to excuse himself from earning a trillion dollars.
Yeah, it's different this time because...
I want to agree with both the last two people.
He's absolutely going to vote for himself.
Yeah, I mean, of course he'll vote yes.
And the thing is, is that...
Last time, when he did excuse himself,
and the board agreed, and the shareholders agreed,
a judge shot it down. So I think he's probably pissed off. And he's like, all right, I'm just
going to make it happen myself this time. Because, I mean, we talked a lot about this when the
Delaware thing happened, but you just can't do that in the United States. You know, I don't care
if you think the shareholders are dumb or whatever you think, like you just can't do that in the
United States. You cannot disallow shareholders of a public company from doing whatever they want, frankly,
if it's approved by shareholder vote. So that's how America works. That's how it's supposed to
work. Whatever you think of Elon doesn't matter. Whatever you think of the size of the package
doesn't matter. It's a deal between shareholders and their CEO. And look, Tesla has decided to approach this in a different
way in the last decade. Unlike other big tech companies where the CEOs make hundreds of millions
of dollars, no matter what they do, Elon's packages, this one included, are performance-based.
And it's funny because I saw a lot of people saying like $1 trillion pay package, that's
ridiculous. You'd be stupid to approve it as a shareholder. And I was like, look at the
terms of the agreement. You know, he has to get to hundreds of billions of dollars of profitability.
He has to make the company, you know, go to an 8 trillion market cap. Like these are insane
benchmarks. Right. And go back to Andrew Sorkin in 2016, when the first pay package came out,
and Andrew Sorkin's laughing at the terms on live TV. He's like, there's no way this guy's
going to get his pay package. Tesla's market cap has to go from, you know, 60 billion to a trillion.
How is that going to happen? Or to 600 billion, sorry. He's like, how is that going to happen?
It happened in three years from the date that Andrew Sorkin
was laughing on live TV
that it was too high of a benchmark.
So is it too high of a benchmark this time?
It's even crazier than the last one.
But if Elon is agreeing to the package,
and if you think it's crazy,
let him do it.
Let's see.
If he can take the company
to an 8 trillion market cap,
give him the trillion
dollars that's my philosophy on it like if you give somebody an impossible benchmark to achieve
and they achieve it what what do you have to do besides shrug your shoulders and pay the man
like if you gave sundar pichai a performance benchmark you'd been fired five years ago
if you get any of these if you give tim Cook a performance benchmark in the last five years, he should have been fired
if he had one, but he didn't have a performance benchmark. These guys just eat no matter what.
They make 150, 200 million bucks no matter what, whether the stock goes up, down,
whether profitability goes up, down. That's a shitty deal for shareholders. I'd rather
have my CEO get an enormous pay package if he can make all of us
way richer isn't that a better deal like do you think one tesla shareholder was mad that elon got
a couple hundred billion bucks for taking the company from a 52 billion market cap to a 700
billion market cap in three years you think anyone cared no no one cared the board didn't care the
shareholders didn't care that's why they voted overwhelmingly to give them the money. So this is Elon's, I think,
attempt to just say, fuck the judge. I'm going to get my money and I'm going to get my pay package
and I'm going to buy a billion dollars of shares right before the vote to make sure I get them.
That's to me what's happening here. And I have no problem with it.
Obviously, I'm biased as a long-term Teslala shareholder but i have no problem with it and i think a lot of the shareholders don't the alternate theory i saw was that he didn't want
larry ellison to be above him so he decided to buy i mean him and larry that's funny that's
actually really funny dude him and larry are really good friends right it's like they're like
really really good friends and in the top 10 richest people list,
Larry and Elon are the closest
out of any other two people on that list.
So, you know, they're a powerhouse together.
I think Elon's a bit mad at Larry
because of the Oracle OpenAI deal.
I don't know if anyone saw the commentary.
Like Elon was a little passive aggressive
towards Larry after that deal.
And Larry was at the White House with
Sam like announcing the Stargate deal that pissed you on off you could tell immediately because like
his commentary around that whole presentation was really negative but outside of that Larry and
Elon are still good friends you know and yeah Oracle had a massive move lately so Larry took
the number one spot but I mean Elon has a lot more optionality than Larry does, right? Oracle has to keep winning for Larry to stay that rich.
SpaceX is Elon's real pride and joy, right?
And that isn't going anywhere.
The world's leading space company is only going to get bigger.
And Elon's going to get richer.
The bigger SpaceX gets, the bigger Tesla gets.
Neuralink is probably going to hit a pretty big valuation inflection in the next few years.
Elon owns 90% of Neuralink.
You know, at some point, I imagine boarding company will hit a five or six or seven billion
dollar valuation too.
So these are all just driving his net worth higher.
And yeah, I don't think this is as much a race for him to become the richest man.
I'm sure he likes the title, but he wants a lot of liquidity.
He wants, you know, hundreds of billions of dollars of liquidity so that he can go to Mars.
And again, whatever you think of that idea, I mean, that's what the guy wants to do, you know,
let him do what he wants to do with his money. But I think it's a more noble use of the money
than people who just want to get rich to buy us, in my opinion. And, you know, I'd rather
billionaires use their money to achieve something for humankind than I would them use their money to buy, you know, lobster and steak dinners three times a day and yachts and, you know, a million dollar vacations.
That's my view.
But some people say they don't care.
So whatever.
Did we get to the whole panel?
Should I go into some stocks?
We didn't really even go through the panel.
We just kind of got right into the conversations.
I don't know.
I was seeing...
I felt like, you know,
some of the non-Tesla, Elon fans
might want to jump in after that.
Wolfie.
I'm not saying that you aren't an Elon fan
with the prompt there,
but you got in the...
Wow. That was a smooth transition. Yeah, I know. I mean, I'm not an Elon fan. You an Elon fan with the prompt there, but you got any... Wow.
That was a smooth transition.
Yeah, I know.
I mean, I'm not an Elon fan.
You got any pullbacks on that one?
I used to be an Elon fan.
I've met the guy.
So I was...
Having said that, I was the guy on here on Wednesday that was telling you he was going
long Tesla and Tempest.
They both broke out.
The breakout on Tesla was a lot more than expected
um you know got a nice little 30x on the calls so pat myself on the back there but i do think the
move got right into resistance it's not a coincidence that i got the right to resistance
i wouldn't be shocked if the first move was lower um i took the opportunity this morning to just sell out of the calls uh if i had an opportunity to roll up on some i did
but for the most part i'd say like 80 out 85 out um i wouldn't try to chase like again with
we were talking about the the i was talking about the vix earlier about like how you want the rate
of change same same deal here so look if you looked at the SKU this morning for calls versus puts,
basically calls were trading at 2x the premium.
Same like distance and same date, like a couple months out.
They were trading basically 2x what a put would trade,
which is kind of aggressive for a move like the move we just got
you don't want to chase stuff like that that's kind of like if you're like one of those
you know spread sellers that's kind of like what you would look for to just kind of collect some
premium on a short-term basis so i'm out on a short-term basis uh just from a trades perspective
uh i don't want to get too too crazy into um you know the fed stuff i thought there's a couple
things i thought that were interesting this uh you know i'm sure stock talk about it he's got like
the smr stuff but i the the headline about the nuclear for the united states is for those who
don't know usis bigger uranium reserve to to cut Russian dependence and boost nuclear growth.
I thought that was interesting, especially with some of these moves that we've had.
And they kind of came in the middle of the moves.
I think, you know, from a technical perspective, I took a trade on Meta today.
It broke out of a downtrend, and they've got like a Meta event coming up, an AI event coming up.
So I think there's potential to see that one kind of in a blink be the next one they
kind of rotate to another one that looks kind of interesting is amazon um just from a technical
perspective but i don't have a position there um you know you if you're a bull on amazon you want
to see them kind of reclaim the recent highs that it had and you want to see them hold this 50 day
that it's flirting with.
And then the other one that I thought was interesting last week was Microsoft with the OpenAI headline. It kind of makes it plausible that Microsoft's going to have a sizable position in this OpenAI,
you know, in this OpenAI private placement.
And then should OpenAI eventually try to go the public route, the potential that OpenAI
would probably be the largest IPO in history.
And if they do go that route and Microsoft has like a size position, it'd be like really
material to, you know, Microsoft.
And I think if we start to go down that path, people are going to be signed a position ahead of that.
In the same vein on this private stuff,
I thought the Robinhood headline about having an ETF,
or I don't know if it was an ETF or ETN,
but having a vehicle for, you know, private companies,
I thought was interesting.
You know, some other trades just random just randomly to cover still
in tempest uh i haven't haven't really sold sold out of most of core weave i thought the six point
whatever billion from nvidia was kind of call back to the oracle you know the oracle thing
what happened it's like a put option or something what are we kind of talking about here it's like
core weave like nvidia will buy back what they sell if core weave doesn't sell it i i guess but to me the more
interesting thing was that there's there's like a couple of companies now that basically have like
independent platform sales for some of this nvidia product product. And I think a few months ago,
NVIDIA acquired one of them, and it was
a small company. So
to me, it's kind of like
if you want to kind of have control of
whatever inventory you have so that
it doesn't end up on eBay type of thing.
I know these things are not going to end up on eBay.
I'm just using an example here. But it's
kind of like wanting to have price controls
on some of your products so that it doesn't kind of like undermine, you know, whatever the market's going
to dictate the prices. So I thought that was interesting. Um, Uber, I took a shot today.
It's breaking out into an all-time high, probably goes for a hundred later in the week.
Um, and is there anything else? Oh yeah. I closed out of CrowdStrike. I mentioned that one. That's 200 day. It's pretty nice, like 10 percent move now.
So shout out to Nancy. And yeah, I just want to pay attention to the Fed here on Wednesday.
You covered kind of like, you know, what I want to look for when I look to see, you know, what what are they what are they expecting the next you know x months right
um and then what kind of commentary are they going to put around whatever it is that they're
expecting the the one that i'll leave with or i'll end with to kind of pay attention to here
is uh and this kind of goes in line with your bmr setup evan uh bNR still looks good. It broke out of a downtrend.
But the one that looks interesting as well,
like kind of similar, is Circle.
Circle now has, you know, been two days above its 20-day after it broke out.
It had a really aggressive move,
I think, Thursday of last week.
And it's pressed up right against, like,
a really important level here on an hourly basis
and on a four-hour basis, this 135 level.
There's a lot of runway if this thing can get above this level,
if they can kind of follow through in the next couple of days.
There's a lot of runway in the next really major level
outside of a gap fill at a 145 sits at like 160, 162.
So paying attention to that one, and then I just briefly go for it.
I was going to say, just on Circle,
this is one that I've actually been watching a little bit.
You know, I work with a couple different ETF providers,
and they launched the 2X Circle ETFs in there.
Okay, there you go.
And I was watching them.
It's not even just that.
I watch these ones.
I watch the launches,
because the number one thing about these 2X ETFs is liquidity.
They need to have enough shares traded.
And I was actually surprised.
People do want to trade Circle a lot more than I expected.
By the way, we work with T-Rex.
I do some work with T-Rex.
CCUP is their 2X Circle.
Also, Leverage Shares, they have a CRCG.
I don't know.
I'm not saying to go buy or sell or anything, but if you see it, shout out T-Rex, Leverage Shares, they have a CRCG I don't know, I'm not saying to go buy or sell or anything, but if you see it, shout out
T-Rex, Leverage Shares, Granite Shares
you should use those ones over
the others, not unless
it's an inferior product
but Circle, I was
the whole point of that was when I was looking at these ones
I was surprised at how much
interest there was in these versus what I would have expected
very minimal
yeah, so you know just from at how much interest there was in these versus what i would have expected very minimal yeah so
you know just just from uh but that aside just from a technical perspective chart looks decent
um looks like it's setting up for you know a real a real breakout if they can uh fall through but
then meta has uh an ai event coming up it started to break out of a downtrend you know as long as this like 755 760
range holds you know this one in a blink can be right back to that you know 780 to 790 level so
just want to pay attention there as they kind of like make their way from one mega cap to the other
i imagine if like google kind of starts to stall and go sideways, they might start to go for some of these other names.
And this is one that I think looks primed as well.
Transparently, when I think about names I get excited for
in the Magnificent Seven of like buying now,
like Meta is one that I am very excited about.
I don't know what sort of timeline it is.
And I know I'm a different type of investor
than a lot of other people in here.
But like, I still think
like there is a 5 to 10x in
front of Meta and I'm not talking like
my lifetime like the next
good decent bit about it
I'm not saying it will happen or not but like
I don't know I just think under
Zuckerberg the pathway this is going Meta is quite
the company that has continuously
skated aggressively in the direction where the puck
is going
yeah and they've been rewarded right so they've they've taken shots and they they like the
metaverse thing for example they didn't they didn't actually hit on it but they were able to
i really don't think i think long term though i think they're not going to be wrong that's what
that's why i kind of said it's true yeah yeah, yeah, yeah. I think we're going that way.
I don't disagree, but I'm just saying
from an operational execution standpoint,
he was able to get in, realize that it's not working,
cut the loss early enough to kind of pivot
and then participate in the next boom,
which was the AI thing,
which that's all you can ask for from a CEO
that takes a shot and doesn't work.
Elon Musk may be the best visionary,
but Mark Zuckerberg being the best CEO in the world?
I don't know.
I don't want to play like summation or whatever
because there's all these other great ones,
Jensen Wong or something like that,
but Mark Zuckerberg is definitely a shark.
It seems to know which way we're going.
I really am.
I'm really excited for Larry right now, in my opinion.
I'm really excited for this meta event on Wednesday.
I made my graphic, the get ready for the week thing,
and I actually put it of Zuckerberg instead of of Pavel,
which it really should have been Pavel,
because that's the big event for the week.
I was like, I was ready for this meta event.
I really think I'm going to buy those meta glasses for a second.
They're talking about doing the meta Ray-Bans glasses with
a heads-up display on them for $800.
I mean, obviously it's not going to be the best,
but I don't know.
I'm excited.
You think Larry Ellison
versus Mark Zuckerberg?
In my opinion, those are the top two right now.
If you're talking about big tech,
I mean, you could
take a more nuanced view if you want to go outside of big tech,
but I would say those are the top. Technically, Allison's not
the CEO, though. Yeah, I mean, I would
call him the operator of the company
is what I would call him, but yeah, you're right.
He's not the label to you. What's that guy's name?
It's a her, right?
Or her. What's her name?
Sarah
Safra Katz or something,
right?
Is that her?
Yeah, she was at that White House dinner.
Yeah, Safra Katz.
Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah.
In my view, I think Larry's still, again,
the operator, the puppet master of the company,
but whatever.
He's the DOD, right?
Yeah, yeah.
Up 10%, I just got a notification.
Yeah, lift. As the market closes. Yep, I mean, up 10 i just got a notification yeah yep i mean you know it was lift was unusual long for me i
talked about it on here when i first took it the day we first took it but um it was unusual long
for me because it wasn't really a strong chart when we got into it in the 13irteens and you know it's sometimes you just have to see through the noise
um and this was one where that was what you had to do you know back in a couple what a month and
a half ago not even a month and a half ago early august so a month ago um this thing was trading at one-time sales with 20% TTM rev growth and, uh, basically
a near inflection to profitability as of the last few quarters, they posted 10 cents in
EPS last quarter and they posted positive EPS the quarter before.
So you have a company that's inflecting to profitability, growing double digits and trading
at one-time sales makes no fucking sense.
And so we bought it
and you know got long at it in the 13s it's obviously now much higher you know it's uh
50 over 50 higher now over 20 but i'm still long right why because not much has changed i mean the
stock's gotten a little more expensive it's trading at 1.4x sales now but it's still growing
at a 19 clip ttm so and for people that don't know ttm i say now, but it's still growing in a 19% clip, TTM.
And for people that don't know TTM, I say that a lot.
It's trailing 12 months of revenue growth.
So you look at the last 12 months and the 12 months before, and you see the difference in growth, and that's TTM rev growth.
But when a company's growing double digits TTM, you should not trade at one-time sales.
You should trade at a significant multiple sales.
And so now Lyft still at 20 is trading at 1.3, 1.4x sales.
So that's why I'm still along the name.
You know, a lot of people, when they're looking to profit take, they're like, well, the stocks run a lot.
So you should take profits. And I don't think about profit taking that way because I'm a positional trader, right?
I'm not a technical setup trader.
And there are, I talked to a post about that this week, and there's a lot of great traders like that.
I'm not knocking that. If you're profitable doing anything, I always say this, profitable doing
anything, keep doing it. But I don't operate that way. I'm a positional trader. I have a thesis
behind everything I own. It's not never just the chart. I never look at a chart and I'm like, I'm buying
it. It's always the chart plus some sort of thematic relevance. Plus I might like the
fundamental story or maybe I like somebody in the management, but there's, it's a, it's a real
thesis for every position I own, everything I buy, every single stock. And I have 17 positions
right now. So with Lyft, the thesis was it is cheap. It is too cheap for how quick it is growing.
That is still true. So I'm not selling it. And it's that simple for me. Like once the thesis
has been fulfilled, like if I buy a stock and I say, I think it's cheap and then it becomes
expensive. Yeah, I'm selling it because the thesis is no longer valid. I bought it because
it was cheap. I'm not going to hold it now just because I'm up on it. And that's a mistake that people make too, is they're lazy
with their commitment to the thesis, right? They're like, oh, well, I'm buying the stock
because it's cheap. Stock goes up a lot, no longer cheap. Then they say, well, I really like the new
guy they brought in as CFO. And it's like, well, would you have bought the stock originally if
that's all they did, just bring in this new guy's CFO? If the answer is, well, would you have bought the stock originally if that's all they did,
just bring in this new guy's CFO? If the answer is no, then you should sell. And that's what a
lot of new traders struggle with is once the stock goes up enough, they're like, oh, I'm not a seller
anymore because I won. I'm green on the stock, right? Like that's how you give back profits.
Some positions are meant for trading. Some positions are meant for holding. Your ability
to know the difference depends depends on your thesis.
Depends on what you know about the company and why you bought the company in the first place.
So, yeah, even though Lyft is 50 percent higher from where we bought it, it's still cheap.
In my opinion, my January options are up like almost 300 percent now, 250 ish as of the close.
And so I'm holding those. I'm not rolling them.
Oh, shock, surprise. i'm not rolling them oh uh shock surprise i'm not rolling them but
you know i think this is probably a 30 stock all things being equal so we'll see once it gets there
then i'll reassess but i'll likely be a seller at that point uh because at that point i don't
think it'll be as cheap at that point it'll be trading around two times sales, which... Am I looking at a
Rocket Lab share offering?
Probably. I wouldn't be surprised.
I think all those space companies should do big
offerings, personally.
I'm seeing Fastalk
Market News put out up to
$750 million.
Let me update this.
Let's see here.
Count me. Talked down a little bit in After Hours. $750 million. Let me update this. Let's see here.
Stock down a little bit in after hours.
$750 million at the market offering.
From time to time, up to $750.
That's how that normally goes, though, yeah.
The market.
The company works with B of A, Cantor, and BTIG, the three companies that have massive outperforming ratings on the stock.
I love seeing that.
The market did close there.
The NASDAQ has now been up nine days in a row.
Yeah, my portfolio records are closed there.
I posted my performance earlier.
I was at 168.
As of the close, I'm at 174%
here today. Insane.
Insane.
So you're saying the NASDAQ
100 just closed today higher for the ninth day in a row?
Ninth day in a row, correct.
Wow.
Pretty insanely hot start to
what was supposed to be seasonally week September, huh?
Yeah.
At least for a lot of individual names.
It was like, I mean,
we dipped on the first day of the month, right?
Well, whatever, Labor Day,
day after Labor Day, the first trading day of the month,
Tuesday. We, like, dipped
down on that day, and then we've been up every
single day since then.
Yeah.
Clearly, we're not going to go up forever.
Obviously, that never happens, but I mean, like, we are going up, though. I yeah clearly we're not going to go up forever as long as that never happens but i mean like we are going up though i mean we're trending very very strongly you know
and whatever pullback might be to the level that we're going to be at tomorrow the pullback in two
weeks might like take us back to higher levels than we even are right now so i don't know it's
like a lot of a lot of like what's happening is is that like on these
minus 0.8 days for the s&p 500 what's happening is is there's actually an inordinate amount of
steam that's coming out of the market leading names on those days like you're having days
where the s&p 500 is down 0.6 or 0.8 and then your market leading names are down 7 8 9 percent
a pop that's not normal action, right?
That's like accelerated action.
And I think that's partially why we can't keep the indexes down.
Because you can't keep the market leading stocks down, right?
And so I think that's why the bears are struggling to take down the indexes.
Because they're able to take some froth out of these
top performing names, but that froth removal doesn't last long before secondary buyers step
in and they go, well, I'm not going to let this thing keep selling. This thing has a greatly
improving story. Stock's up 300% a year to date. All this stuff has improved and changed. I want
to get long and I'm not long yet. Now I get a low volume pullback into the 21 EMA.
You're not going to find sellers there.
You're going to find buyers there.
And that's precisely what's been happening for all the market-leading names.
I mean, look at Kratos, right?
Look at Kratos and Nebius two weeks ago, which are two market-leading names.
Both of them fell below the 21 EMA and looked like, oh, maybe the momentum's coming out of these things.
Literally four days later, Nebius announced the deal with Microsoft goes up 50%.
So, yeah, so much for the 21 EMA forfeit.
And then Kratos recaptures 70 bucks today.
Like, the best stocks in the market currently have a relentless bid.
And in that environment,
people do not want to sell the best stocks in the market.
It's really hard to kill the indexes.
You have to find other ways to kill the indexes.
And the tricky part about this market is
the underperforming stuff,
the oil and gas stuff,
the financials,
these sort of areas,
the industrials,
they're so cheap.
And so it's so hard.
Like, if you do want to bring the indexes down, you can't kill the market leading names.
You can't really put the sell pressure on those industries either because they're so cheap.
They've been so neglected for the last 12 to 18 months.
There's actually probably more long opportunity there than there is short opportunity, even if you are negative on the economy.
long opportunity there than there is short opportunity, even if you are negative on the
economy. So it's like the bears are the problem the bears are having right now is that they
don't have points of weakness to attack in this market. They can't short the boring stuff that's
too cheap. And they can't short the market leaders because they have a relentless bid that they're
not even let alone coming down to the 21 EMAs. Some of the market leaders won't even get their
nine.
And they're just cruising to the upside.
Even on weak market days, they're just like hovering minus one or minus 2% hovering in these high tight flags, just begging for continuation.
That's a tough environment to be negative on.
Like, even if you want to be, even if you're being rational and saying like, I, you know, this is crazy. I want to short stocks. Even if you want to, like how many people got short open after that a hundred percent moved to the upside and they got burned this morning all over again.
Like a lot of people, I saw a lot of people on the feed saying like, you know, this is that type
of market where it's, it's hard to get negative, not psychologically, but it's hard to get negative
from a positioning standpoint because you will get steamrolled. And in spite of all of that, net equity flows are still net
hedged, right? There are more hedged equity flows than unhedged equity flows, like I mentioned
earlier, still, in spite of that relentless market action. So there's still enough doubt in the
market, I think, to serve as fuel. And I think that there are still areas of the market that are not bubbly.
And that allows for money rotation.
There are areas of the market that are very good.
Oscar dropped an offering.
Who did?
Oscar Health, OSCR.
There you go.
A lot of people have been trading, talking about that name, $315 million.
I just never can get my conviction level high enough on these, like, healthcare stocks that get popular amongst retail
because they just usually have a hard time sustaining inflated multiples.
Now, maybe, like, HIMS is an exception to that because that stock's been a monster performer, but they usually have a hard time floating like tech style multiples.
And most industries do like outside of tech. Most industries have a hard time floating
multiples like that, but it's easier when the story's sexy. Like it's easier when there's
there's hype and attention, right? Like,
I mean, today was a huge day for my portfolio largely because of the nuclear stocks,
right. And specifically the ones I own, which are energy fuels and centrist energy, right?
Energy fuels is up 16% today. I actually posted the monthly chart in my journal on Friday and said,
this monthly chart's prettier than my ex-girlfriend. That's what I put in my,
I put in the discord on Friday and that's not ripped 16% today. So sure enough, it was a very pretty monthly chart and
it remains one. I mean, you know, go look at, go look at energy fuels, ticker you, you, you, you
look at the monthly chart and then zoom out 15 years and look at it. Let's look at the volume,
and look at it. Let's look at the volume, like all of the volume. In fact, if you look at
the volume from just this year, it exceeds all of the volume in the first 15 years of the company
being public in just the last six months. Okay. Those are the type of cues I like to look for
on these monthly charts when I'm trying to decide, Hey, is this theme for suckers or is there real institutional volume behind this theme?
I'm actually doing a workshop tomorrow night for our community on quarterly charts, which I don't
think enough people look at, but pull up some quarterly charts and some of your favorite names,
you know, pull up the quarterly chart on energy fuels, you, you, you, you, I think it gives you
a better perspective on institutional money flow. And look at the quarterly volume bars, the last two, right?
You can do the same thing for Centris Energy, which is my second largest position behind Nebius.
Look at the quarterly chart on Centris Energy.
Last four were the highest quarterly volume ever.
The stock's been public, keep in mind, for 25 plus years, right?
And the four
highest volume quarters were the last four quarters, by far. Not like, oh, they were the
highest volume by a little bit. I'm talking about to the tunes of hundreds of millions of shares
higher than any volume bar ever, right? And now the nuclear names today catch a monster bid back
to the upside. Centris is almost back at all-time highs. It was at 160 a few weeks ago. You was at eight
bucks a couple of weeks ago. It's at $14, right? Does this give you the reminiscence of a theme
that's hype or does it give you a reminiscence of a theme that has institutional involvement?
To me, it's the latter. And when you're making your distinctions of which of these themes to
stay in versus which of these themes to take profits on, these are the cues
you look for. These are the cues you look for to maintain conviction, to say like, dude, we're
talking about all time volume on names breaking out of multi-year bases, that you do not fade that.
You do not fade that. And you do not profit take early into that, especially if you have conviction,
Profit take early into that, especially if you have conviction, right?
These setups are not commonplace.
They're not, these are not ordinary where you have like 5X record volume stacked on one side of the chart.
That doesn't happen.
I mean, one of the last stocks we talked about this happening, which I traded earlier in the year for a nice trade but sold it way too early, was Cypher.
Okay, when I started talking about that one, it was at like five, five 50. You looked at
the volume bars coming in on that. It had six consecutive all-time high volume bars. Look at
the stock. Now it's more than doubled from that spot. Okay. Uh, energy fuels more than doubled
from that spot since it put in its HV Jenny up 40% since it's put in its HV, uh, centrist energy
up a hundred percent since it's put in its HV. Like how Energy up 100% since it's put in its HVE. Like, how many more examples do I
need to give? These stocks have all doubled, more than doubled since they put in their HVEs earlier
this year, and they're still stacking volume, right? In fact, you look at the quarterly volume
record that Energy Fuel set earlier this year, right? This quarter, they surpassed it. So they
set an all-time record bar for the first time ever.
By far, they posted like, you know, 200, what is this?
600 plus million shares of volume.
And in the next quarter, they post 800 million shares.
You can follow up volume bars to these things.
Like that's, you don't fade that.
So, you know, I remain gigalong on the nuclear trade with those two names in particular.
In fact, as of today's move, energyels has entered a greater than 10% weighting in
my portfolio.
Keep in mind, that stock started at just 3% to 4% weighting in my portfolio.
It's now greater than 10% weighting in two months, right?
That's how you drive super performance in the market.
That's why my portfolio went back to 170% year-to-date return.
This year, you look at it a month ago, I was sitting at $1.15.
That's a huge move, but that's been driven by just three or four stocks.
Keep in mind, not in a concentrated portfolio.
I run a book of 17 positions.
It's not a concentrated portfolio.
It's not like I have all my eggs and nebius and centrist.
No, they're my largest positions, but I have many, many other positions.
It's really about the balance of action.
Right.
And, you know, today I had names like Tesla, which I've owned for a long time, perform nicely.
That's great to see.
Digital Ocean, which we picked up last week, up 4% today.
That's nice.
Materion caught another 3% bid.
So I have other names that are working.
Kratos pushed back above 70, right?
Not everything needs to be explosive.
So, you know, as long as you can stair climb your way up to higher and higher performance and you respect the needs of
the portfolio, like there's stocks I sold that have gone higher, but I did them out of portfolio
management decisions. And I think they were prudent based on the results. You know, the results speak
for themselves. So yeah, I'm very with with how I've stock picked this year.
And I'm very happy with the names that I've chosen to hold.
Really, six stocks have driven my whole performance this year.
The Nuclear Basket, Nebius, Robinhood.
That's what that's what driven my performance this year.
And I haven't needed to look elsewhere.
You know, there's been this propensity to look for rotation pretty much
all year. Everyone wants to look for it because they miss out on the market leaders. So everyone's
always clamoring for rotation, right? Especially the people who are on the sidelines. They don't
want to see the AI stocks go higher and higher because they don't own them. They want to see
money rotate to healthcare and oil and gas and, you know, industrials. And in my view, it won't.
In my view, those stocks will catch a bid,
but they will not become the market leaders
for any durable period of time.
We're just not in that environment.
That's not what's attractive to investors here today.
And this is something that the PE bros,
the legacy.com guys still don't get.
Even with decades of experience,
they still don't get it. And I don't understand. I don't understand. Cause I've talked to so many
of them and I just don't, I can't wrap my mind around that, that level of thinking,
but they refuse to acknowledge that what is preferred the exposures that are preferred
in a market change constantly, right? Like this, this enormous retail trend we're seeing, do you think they want to own oil
and gas stocks? They don't. Do you think they want to own industrial like auto parts suppliers? No.
Do you think they want to own REITs? No. Like talk to the kids yourself, talk to these young 20, 30,
you know, even sub 40 year old people who are joining the market in these last few years and ask them, just ask them anecdotally.
Even I know, you know, you guys know how much I hate anecdotal evidence, but for the purpose of this exercise, ask them, tell me how diehards. But, you know, I can't wait to own whatever this random gas supplier.
I can't wait to own, you know, this industrial auto parts stock.
Right. None of them are saying that. None.
And so why would you fight? Why would you fight the money flow?
Why would you fight the intended money flow?
You know, own the sexy stuff. Own the sexy stuff.
Is it going to be a little more expensive at times?
Yeah, but there's moments where you can capture stuff that's not expensive at all, right?
Like when I was talking about Materion in the 90s, that was not an expensive stock, right?
Trading in the 115s now.
When I was talking about Lyft in the 13s, that was not an expensive stock.
It's trading 20s now.
I can go on and on.
There's so many stocks this year that I bought at 1x sales that went on to double or go up 40 or 50% that were not expensive at all. So no, just because it's sexy
doesn't mean it has to be ridiculously expensive and make you throw away your intelligent investor
book by Ben Graham in the trash can. It doesn't have to be this detached from reality valuation
to be a sexy stock. That's another thing that people don't
understand. So pick stocks well, but don't be the guy that like loves an area of the market that's
been out of favor for years, or in some cases, decades. And your confirmation bias informs you
to continue to wait for that sector to get picked up.
That's how you underperform, not outperform.
That's called owning the laggers and not the leaders,
and that's not a recipe for success.
So can you make a positive market return by owning and trading those stocks?
Yes.
Are you going to superperform the market by owning and trading those stocks?
Pretty simple.
All right.
There we go.
There we go.
Chipotle just did a buyback.
Yeah.
They just announced they're increasing their share buyback plan by $500 million.
But I do see Allie joining us up here, and I want to make sure we're getting Allie into the conversation here.
I always love hearing your thoughts.
And obviously, it's a really big Jerome Powell week.
Mary Jerome Powell week.
So if there's any thoughts on what Stock Talk was saying there,
there's a couple maybe different directions.
But just in general, I want to hear your thoughts around Jerome Powell this week,
what you're watching.
Yeah, obviously, senior reporter over at Yahoo Finance.
I see a lot of your posts around the Fed.
Maybe those are the ones that are getting out there a bunch. I'm sure you talk about a lot. But how
are you doing, Allie? I appreciate you being here. Before we get into more specific stuff.
But yeah. Yeah, I jumped in a little late, but I know that I could hear the passion in Stock Talk,
what we were just talking about. But yes, when it comes to the Fed, it feels like that has been a lot of what I've been reporting on, especially the offshoot stories from the Fed,
whether it be inflation or the labor market. And obviously heading into this week,
the labor market has been a big focus point. And I think it's going to be a really interesting
meeting, but it's not going to be about what they do because I think we fully priced in that 25 basis
point cut. I think it's going to be what dissents we see. I think we can maybe have a slim majority
for 25 basis points that seems to be aligned with a PAL ones, but I also can expect to see a few
dissents for maybe more of a jumbo cut with the other FOMC officials that we know are a little bit more
dovish. And then when it comes to the rest of the year, what are the dots telling us?
Can we still expect, you know, one more cut after this one? Is it going to be two cuts after this
one? And is the market getting a little too over their skis at this point
when it comes to how many cuts that investors are currently pricing in? And what could the
reaction be for stocks? And there's been various commentary on Wall Street today and over the
weekend about the reaction that we could see. And even if the Fed does cut, even if the policy
statement does lean a little bit more dovish, there's always that chance that it could be a sell the news event. We could see some choppiness in stocks. And then
especially if maybe there's not as much easing that beneficials are pricing in on that dot plot,
then compared to markets, that could be another scenario where we might see stocks move lower.
But then on the flip side, there's been other commentary that says,
you know, right now we might not need that aggressive of rate cuts. And if we do continue
to see a lot of them, that could lead to a melt up in the stock market, leading to more FOMO
trading, more speculative bets. And if that occurs, we know typically what happens after melt ups is
there's sharp corrections after. So there just seems to be
a lot of different viewpoints on Wall Street right now when it comes to what the Fed will ultimately
do, not just on Wednesday, but really throughout the rest of the year and how markets could react
based on that. Obviously, we've been trading at record highs for some time. We continuously have
these surges in the S&P and the NASDAQ. But I think the danger of that is part of the reason
why stocks are rallying is the expectation of easing. But the Fed isn't cutting necessarily
for good news or because the economy is on 100% stable footing. It's really because of this
breakdown that we're seeing in the labor market, the greater cooling there, the weakness there.
And at a certain point, when does the bad news become bad news, right? I think there's always
that, oh, is bad news good news for stocks? Right now, that seems to be the case. Of course,
we have AI tailwinds as well. And I think AI and earnings, that's been able to offset maybe some of
the weakness we've seen on the growth side.
But what I've been hearing from economists is that maybe that push and pull, that tug of war is a little too lopsided right now.
Maybe we aren't fully accounting for some of the growth scares that we could see.
the growth scares that we could see. And even though we're not in that stagflationary period
yet, we could be creeping closer and closer to that point, especially since on the tariff front,
we've been hearing consistently that that was always going to be a second half of the year's
story, both for businesses and consumers alike. And we did see that CPI reports some evidence of
tariff pass-through to the consumer. And the expectation there is that's only going to get
a little bit worse over time. And on the business side, we've seen a lot of businesses, especially
after this earnings season, the commentary that we've been gathering from executives,
that they're absorbing a lot of these tariff costs. But again, you hit that certain point
where they have to start passing on to the consumer. And then where do things go from there?
have to start passing on to the consumer? And then where do things go from there? And even though
stocks are at record highs, this seems to be a rally that is still very gloomy. It still doesn't
feel like we're at record highs in a lot of ways. We have the sentiment data that's come in pretty
weak. Consumer confidence is now declining. We have long-term inflation expectations rising.
There's a lot of pessimism on the street.
Retail traders or nearly half of them consider themselves bearish at this point. And it's just a weird juxtaposition when it comes to where we are with stocks continuing to trade higher. So
how does that play out at the end of the year as well? And when does a rubber meet the road
when you have a lot of pessimism in an environment where stocks are at record highs?
So there's a lot of contradictions, too, I think, within this market and the rally that hopefully the Fed will be able to maybe clarify or make decisions that lead to some more clarity on what direction markets will ultimately take.
So those are just a few of my high-level thoughts there heading into Fed Week.
I want to ask you one or two specific questions I've been getting.
Fed dissenters, normally what happens here is not everyone goes in and agrees on the same thing necessarily,
but they come behind the same decision.
This past time there was two dissenters.
Are we expecting any Fed dissenters this time?
Is that something people are talking about?
Yeah, people are talking about that.
You have Chris Waller, you have Michelle Bowman,
and then whatever happens with Stephen Myron,
I mean, he was supposed to get confirmed before the meeting.
So he could even maybe be a mega dissenter.
Like, who knows what he would be calling for.
We know Waller and Bowman have been
kind of advocating for that 50 basis point cut throughout the course of the summer.
So where does he lie? I almost can guarantee you there are going to be dissenters on Wednesday.
And I think that really is going to be the story. How divided is the Fed? We started to see a little bit of that in the June dot plot
and how there was different, there's a lot more dispersion among FOMC officials. Typically,
Fed officials are more aligned. So are we going to see even greater dispersion this time around
when we look at the dot plot for September? So I think we're going to see the centers for the
actual decision. And I also think when it comes to the dot plot, September. So I think we're going to see the centers for the actual
decision. And I also think when it comes to the dot plot, we are going to see a more
wide range of opinions when it comes to the future of interest rates.
Dot plot was going to be my next question there. Summary of economic projections is always
an interesting one coming up here.
Yeah. Especially because that 25 basis point cut, I mean, it's been priced in for some time now. So I think it's not, this meeting is not so much about what they're going to do on Wednesday.
It's more so what language are they putting around things?
Are they opening the door for more easing?
How aggressive are they going to sound?
Is Jerome Powell going to lean more dovish?
What are the changes to the policy statement?
It's really more so about the future for this particular meeting.
I think at this point, 25 is a lock.
If we get 50, I wonder how markets would react. I mean, you could go either way.
You could have the cheering that policy is going to be less restrictive, but is that a concern
that on the growth side of the equation? Is the central bank more worried that maybe the economy
is a lot weaker than we thought? I don't think that's going to be the case, considering we're not at the point where the job market is falling off a cliff in any sense.
Even jobless claims hitting that four-year high, there was that anomaly with things going on in Texas.
So overall, I don't see any dire emergency to cut rates by 50 basis points.
But again, I think the story is more going to be what do we see the rest of the year
and what does that mean for 2026 as well?
I think it was Thursday's combo.
Initial jobless claims isn't the best one, but I think it was that plus CPI,
both going in the wrong direction.
That felt like a pretty bad combo of a day,
although they weren't even that crazy of numbers.
Yeah, like it was mostly in line,
but also hot in certain areas.
And again, like you were finally starting to see
a little bit of that tariff pass-through,
which we hadn't really seen up until that previous month's data.
But again, that's something that we've been told time and time again,
that this is a second half of the year story,
and it's going to take time for tariffs to really work their way through the system.
But on the jobs around, you are certainly hearing,
even anecdotally, of this low-hire, low-fire environment.
And even though layoffs aren't
escalating at this point, even though the unemployment rate is still historically low,
it is a danger that we're not hiring, that especially younger workers, younger Americans,
they're dealing with the most difficult job market. You layer AI on top of that.
And it's just an interesting environment.
But the irony of it all is that I think those younger workers are going to be the ones that
are best positioned, given the AI boom.
Because right now, we are still sort of dealing with the supply versus demand equation, building
out the infrastructure.
But then what I've been hearing is that phase two is really securing that talent. And the talent pool is pretty small at this point
when it comes to all the use cases for AI. And that's where a lot of these younger workers have
the opportunity to step into that. So that's a longer term story. But in the short run,
certainly those younger Americans are feeling the brunt of this labor
market, this low hire, low fire environment, and that can only last so long too.
I appreciate you, Ali. And obviously, feel free to jump in and any more of the conversation we have going on sam you got your hand up yeah i mean is this the afternoon of just stock offerings and buybacks because i rocket lab
750 million dollar offering oscar 350 million dollar offering nebius added another about
billion dollars of the offering and it we did kind of expect that in the first place because
they increased it last week from uh i think it's like 2.7 3.18 but now it's 4.2 ah there was another one
it just got oversubscribed this is the this is the completion of the original offering
got it i mean at the same time like you know what what you're if it is like four point if it is 4.2 it's it's really not a surprise like
i'm not i'm not surprised the market didn't react to it as much as the previous one uh then at the
same time you know it did rally 40 in a week um things need to kind of cool down a little bit so
that's kind of expected as well but you saw other companies also doing offerings as well and then
you saw chipotle with the buybacks.
Chipotle has obviously been underperforming the market.
So, of course, it initiated the buybacks.
They think their stock is cheap and so on.
I mean, really, I mean, we're heading into basically the first cut in almost a year.
The Fed has basically pumped the brakes, likely due to the uncertainty of tariffs and how that
could affect the economy.
But I think they're pretty comfortable knowing that it's not going to materially affect the
economy in a certain way. And plus, I believe they're trying to front run what could be
a slight unemployment weakness. But at the same time, I think I'm actually a little bit
surprised. We got about a 10% chance, maybe about 7% to 8% chance of getting a 50 basis point cut.
So it's not totally in the bag for 25 basis points.
At the same time, this could just easily slide down to zero, and then 25 basis points could
be the likely choice for the Fed.
But as Ali was saying, we're going to get the SEP summary of the economic projections.
Basically, it's going to say where the Fed thinks inflation, GDP, and the rates are in
the next couple of years.
I think that's going to be the numbers that Mark is looking for.
At the same time, let's say, hypothetically,
they did you a 50 basis points kind.
I mean, I'm not going to complain.
I got a Robinhood bet saying that they're going to do that.
High risk, high reward.
But at the same time, it's likely it's going to go to zero.
But if they do, didn't we see the same thing last time
where the Friday before the event,
Nicholas Teramos released an article for the New York Times.
Basically, you got 50 basis points being priced in just a few days for the meeting.
It is Monday, the meeting is in two days, so it's very less likely that's going to happen.
But if that does, I still know the market initially sold off a little bit.
And then we went back to all-time highs again in late October, early November. So maybe if they do, for some reason, start to get a bit more aggressive,
the market might be a little bit skeptical. But I still think the story is going to continue anyway,
unless the data shows that there is perceived weakness. Now, that set aside,
the summary of VK&O projections could say that there's going to be a material weakness in gdp i mean we're at 3.3 3.4 percent as of the uh atlanta fed forecast for next quarter so we'll
go ahead and see what happens with that one but i mean we went from contraction quarter to now a
massively expanded quarter if you ask me that's more of a re-inverting tactic but anyways i mean
things are just chugging along, right?
Like the bulls climb the wall of worry.
That's all we've been seeing.
Elevator down, escalator up.
And that's really all we've been seeing.
I mean, there's a lot of talk saying we need a correction.
We need a correction.
But what if we don't get one?
I mean, that doesn't mean that we're going to come crashing down 30% as soon as there's any weakness in the market.
It does create a higher probability that's going to happen.
But why short this market right now?
Shorting all-time highs is probably the worst thing you could possibly do.
Trim, maybe a little bit if you're scared.
But at the same time, I digress with that one.
So there was some interesting news today, this morning, actually, that Affirm Holdings is now extending buy-not-pay- pay later to Apple Pay in-store transactions.
And this is pretty interesting
because we just did get an IPO of Klarna recently.
And of course, the one IPO that I take part in
is the crappiest performer out of all of them,
Story of My Life.
But when I really do think about the valuation for Klarna,
I don't think it's too demanding
considering as we're heading toward a lower rate environment, that means that they'll
be able to borrow short-term loans to finance these buy-now-pay-later programs a little
bit better for them.
And on top of that, they collect about a 3% fee, 3% transaction fee for merchants for
basically fronting that money.
So rates come down credit
expands people have to spend more bnpl same thing we saw in 2020 2021 when people start to use a
little bit of leverage there in terms of their spending with transactions but at the same time
also on top of that money m2 money supply continuing to expand as the rates do come down
maybe the Fed will start picking up quantitative easing again. Who knows? They did. Actually, don't quote me that. Forget if
they actually finished quantitative tightening in terms of letting bonds roll up the balance sheet
or if it's just a few billion dollars a month. I mean, just a few billion dollars a month,
guys. No big deal. But still, it's more of the rate of change. If they go the opposite way
and they start quantitative easing, that's really going to speak volumes to the market because that's not only going to show that the market is heading toward continued expansion of M2 money supply, but it's also going to show that there's continued liquidity put back into the market, which you don't fight the Fed. I mean, it's very simple. 2022, we saw
that bear market. That's because everyone was fighting the Fed when they kept on saying that
they were going to start tightening rates, and they did at the fastest pace in history.
And you saw the bear market. We're still in an expansion phase. Not really the best time to be
expecting the bottom to fall off. But at the same time, you know, the tape's telling you one thing.
The companies are telling you one thing.
The fundamentals of these companies' releases,
the AI stories continue to come down the thing.
Donald Trump and NVIDIA,
Jensen Wong are in the UK right now.
And then you have Oklo.
What are the most speculative companies
out there with pre-revenue
announcing they're going to be expanding
plants in Tennessee? I think it was $1.8
billion, something like that. Come on. It's very hard to determine that this is the top.
But at the same time, deals, it's very difficult to see. I think there's a few names that I've
been long for quite some time. I mean, Grab made a new, not a 52-week all-time high, but I'm sorry,
a 52-week all-time high, but not a new all-time high.
But it did push those highs again today.
New Bank made a new closing all-time high after almost a year.
It is very good to see that one too.
But as far as that goes, besides Rubrik, there's really not much.
So it is a waiting game.
Continue to play a waiting game. Continue playing a waiting game.
I do also see, I appreciate you, Sam.
I also see we are logical up here.
Yes, yes, yes.
Hello, hello.
Sorry, I couldn't join earlier.
I'm at a work conference, so I've got some time away. Yeah, amazing market. What's there not to like? This thing just goes up and up every single day. I don't know why people would be upset or whatever. It's just a good time to make money. Volatility just looks like it's, you know, compressing every day. It's just look at the, look at the fixed chart, you know, low vol regime, you know, stocks go up.
When you have a strong Mac market backdrop like this, where, you know, the S&P just kind of
grinds higher. I've been saying that that's such an amazing backdrop for you to go and play in the
sandbox of finding the other equities that are going to outperform. So this is really the time to pick some of those
best, strongest stocks that are writing big themes, narratives, and also good fundamentals
to back the story. Last week, I talked about Galaxy Digital. On the back of a lot of these
irons and ciphers and these data center names like Nebius, I think Galaxy Digital can be a very interesting
play. I think I mentioned that around like 26 bucks and now it's sitting at 30. So that one
continuing to do very well. I think that the beautiful part about Galaxy is that it has,
you know, both the crypto side as well as,
and it's not just Bitcoin mining, they have a lot more crypto operations there,
as well as digital holdings in the billions of dollars.
I saw that they're raising their Solana stakes as well.
And then they have the Helios data center, which is up to 2.7 gigawatts, which 800 megawatts of it,
they have already contracted with CoreWeave. So I think it's just a matter of getting more
energy approvals. So yeah, so I think Galaxy Wallet's a name like Tempest AI, which has been
really tough to hold and trade because of the volatility. I think it's possible that we're
ready for this next leg up led by kind of those numbers uh from oracle last week
which were absolutely bonkers and kind of i don't know if it's the nvidia moment of a couple years
ago but it's almost like what's gonna drive the the the second wind of this ai bull market and
what i was saying is that that can definitely lead to a melt up because if those numbers are anywhere near true, then there's a lot of demand and revenues
that have yet to be priced in due to AI.
And so I think market will get ahead of itself.
It'll start basically paying up for those stocks now.
And, you know, we'll see how the numbers actually pan out.
But markets always look forward so I would
imagine that this market continues to chug higher um there's some good stats out there where you
know everybody's so scared about you know the Fed cutting and yeah maybe it could be sell the news
and maybe we priced it in but generally speaking when the Fed cuts in a non-recessionary environment
one year later we've been higher every single time.
So market still looks good and not having equity exposure
is going to be to your detriment.
I'm not saying you can't manage it
and be smart about it.
What I am saying is that
you have to think about like,
go look up the chart of the Dixie,
the US dollar,
down from 109 to 97
since Trump took office.
Every single day that passes, your dollars are worth less.
The government is providing all this fiscal deficit spending
that's going to continue to fuel inflation.
They're going to run it hot,
which means that every day your dollars are worth less.
We just know that from basic economics of inflation.
So owning assets is going to be smart.
And ultimately, when these rates come down, that's obviously the overnight rate, which means that what people are getting
in short-term treasuries. So if some guys are getting 4.25, you know, eventually, soon enough,
by the end of this year, they're going to be getting 3.5% return. I think that might end up
being a cause for people taking money out of money market funds.
And I'm not necessarily the guy who's saying, hey, there's $7 trillion on the sidelines.
I don't think of that money in money markets as necessarily cash on the sidelines willing
to buy equity markets.
But I do think that there is a decent portion of them that will no longer tolerate a 3.5%
return.
So I bet some of it does get reallocated
um you know it's not the same as five percent a year ago right it's very different now
so uh what else uh i think yeah so i mentioned galaxy digital let's look at the couple names
upstart i think today uh finished really strong towards the highs of the day that thing's been
basing around the 200 week i'm sorry sorry, the 200 day moving average. That thing looks really nice. They also have a home segment
now. So if the home, you know, the housing sector is going to get going, I think that can work. And
you know, I've always talked about Lending Club on here and that one was really strong
closing towards the highs of the day today. So like lenders can continue to do very well from
here, especially as we get banking deregulation and the government
allows them to expand their balance sheets and hold more loans on the balance sheet.
That's going to be really bullish for lenders to be able to originate more loans.
And obviously there's going to be more demand for those loans if rates come down.
Serv Robotics has a really nice chart.
I've always liked that one.
I see these damn robots all over my
neighborhood. I think, you know, it's funny because the revenues right now aren't really
there, but they're talking about exiting this year at a 60 to $80 million revenue run rate.
They have about 150 mil, 160 mil in cash or something like that. So you strip that out there
about 600 mil market cap, I'm sorry, million enterprise value i believe which would put them at about 10 times uh ev to sales
which you know isn't cheap but you're talking about a business that's going from zero to 70
million run rate uh within the year and it has 27 short interest i mean the chart looks like it just
broke out if you look at the weekly so server robotics looks good for a trade at least i've actually been liking gap this thing was up 4.5
percent today pulled back a little bit on um friday i thought that gave a good opportunity to add to
it gap uh might ride a similar wave as american eagle outfitters i think it's a little different
obviously american eagle outfitters smaller market cap had the city sydney sweeney ad uh and it was a you know two three billion
dollar company uh gap is three times as large and when you talk about gap they have multiple brands
under their umbrella they have old navy uh banana republic etc so actual Gap brand is only about like 23% of their stores, but the recent
cat's eye ad apparently has a bigger TikTok moment and hype than, um, than even Sydney Sweeney's
American Eagle Outfitters ad. So I think, you know, Gap could be a sleeper, uh, you know,
options, IVs really low there. I can see some upside surprise on the next earnings and you
know the stock's really cheap it trades at like seven times EV does earnings seven times it's
really cheap so any sort of you know increase in top line sales same store sales comp that
thing could be you know a pretty big winner from here uh what else um liquidia is one that i was talking about from the bios lqda
had an ugly loss of momentum late last week i had to cut the position as a loss to 21 ema but if i
looked at the end of the day action today uh had a stick save and it looks like a nice reversal
and i was able to reclaim the 21 ema so i jumped jumped back in on that one. So, yeah, I mean, look, there's a lot of good stuff right now.
I'm actually like pushing my long exposure.
So what I like to do is like, I take on long positions.
I'll hold them as long as they work.
If they stop working or they lose momentum,
I'll cut the position, cover my margin, et cetera, move on.
And I just shuffle around exposure.
That's all I do.
And, you know, I look at this idea.
Oh, look, I like this one.
I won't worry too much as long as I'm not over levered.
I'll be like, okay, yeah, let me take a four or 5% position in this.
No problem.
And, you know, if it works, it works.
If it doesn't work, okay, I'll exit and move on.
It's not a big deal.
So, yeah, I think there's a lot of good trading opportunities right now,
especially as the market is kind of just chugging along.
And yeah, I mean, that's several names to keep you busy.
Sometimes I like to keep silence after,
see if anyone has any thoughts or comments they want to bounce off there.
I appreciate YouLogical for jumping in on the spaces, as always.
Stock Sniper, I apologize for not going to you earlier, Mr. Sniper.
What are you watching in this market, Stock Sniper?
No worries. I did text him. He said he was listening on low volume anyway.
My bad.
Stock Talk.
What's up?
What did I miss last week? First of all, I don't know if there's any thoughts on Sam or Logical, anything they were saying there, any of the stocks you have some overlap on, anything like that.
But yeah, I don't know. A week away. I feel like I missed a lot of stuff last week. There was one name, Digital Ocean. I feel like that was a new position I haven't heard you talk about before.
Yeah, I took that one. It's the smallest position in my port currently. Usually I ladder into positions or I allow them to fill the weight for me.
fill the weight for me. So sometimes what will happen is, so generally when I'm taking a starter,
I'm taking it between 3.5 to 4.5% weighting. It's usually under 5%. Now, sometimes that's
different. Sometimes I really like something and I go in with bigger size. Like Amcor, I went in
with 4.5% weighting and then the next day I upped it to seven and a half percent because i was doing more research and i
like what i saw so like when you're getting into bm and r 25 did you see the clip i just sent you
about amcor by the way uh no i don't i don't click links sorry it's dude it's a twitter link
send it to your text just click it um but watch it you'll like it because it's tim cook talking about amcor but um anyway and it's from three days ago but uh yeah so sometimes i'll go in um
like with four and a half percent waiting or whatever and i'll do more research and i'll
i'll see something i didn't see and be like oh i need to up the waiting on this and if the stock
isn't done much i'll just usually do that right away, which is what I did with Amcor. But like in other cases, like Lyft, for example,
if I'm buying the stock in an area where I'm not sure if it can go lower, like when we were
buying Lyft in the 13s, I was like, this could go lower. So I started it off at 4.5%, but the
stock had such an immediate bullish flip that I wasn't able to like size into it, but it grew on its own. And it's now like,
as of today's move, it's going to be like a 9% weighting, right? So on its own, it went from like,
you know, a four and a half or whatever it was. I don't remember what exactly the weighting was
at that point, but something like that to, you know, now 9% weighting. And I didn't have to add
anything to the position. It just grew into the waiting on its own. So sometimes if the stock really performs quickly, I won't like build into it.
Like it'll, it just builds itself, right?
It just grows itself.
Like, and in some cases I regret that.
Like with Nebius, I regret that, right?
Like Nebius is the biggest position in my portfolio right now.
It's 16% because it went up 50%, but I wish I honestly had more.
And that sounds crazy, but like,
I was very bullish on that stock, as you guys know,
and I was talking about it here every day.
And, you know, going into that Microsoft print,
it was like 13, 12 or 13% of my portfolio.
And now it's like pushing 17%. So it was still a high conviction position.
It was the second biggest position in my portfolio
going into that Microsoft deal.
You know, Centris was the only one that was bigger. And now it's flipped Centris. And now was the second biggest position in my portfolio going into that Microsoft deal. You know, Centris was the only one that was bigger.
And now it's flipped Centris.
And now it's the biggest position in my portfolio.
Centris is number two.
But like both of those stocks, you know, like grew into their weightings.
Like, I think Centris started at five or five and a half percent.
And I think Nebius started at something like that, too, five or five and a half percent, um, which again is big waiting for a starter for me, but they just, they, they
went up so much so fast, right? Like you've stock, you put in a stock at a 5% waiting and it doubles
and dramatically outperforms the rest of your stocks. It's going to grow in waiting. And that's
exactly what happened. Right. So, um, I try to be patient and like build into stuff but then you know sometimes
it gets away from you um evan what was your original question i kind of got off the track
circle back to what you originally asked me or do you remember
i don't know if evan's even there
oh digital ocean yeah so digital ocean yeah that was a starter, small starter.
What is it at right now?
Sitting just under 4% weighting?
No, more like 3.68%, exactly, if you want me to be exact.
I will size into that one.
I just want the monthly to shape up a little better.
So I was talking about this earlier about quarterly charts, but I've been doing a lot of
quarterly chart reviews on my names lately. And I just like love how every single name I own looks.
So I haven't needed any adjustments for it, but, um, this past quarter, or I guess this current
quarter, uh, for digital ocean is about to be its highest volume quarter ever, tying its fourth publicly traded
quarter as a company. So it's been a while. And I think if you can get a monthly close on this
thing above 3620, which is where the nine quarter EMA is, it's also where on the monthly chart, you have a confluence of moving
averages around 33 to 35. You have the 20 month and the nine and 21 month EMAs as well, all in
that area. So I think if you can get a monthly close on this thing above like 36, 37 bucks,
that's going to be pretty bullish for a move up to the 40s there is a lot of
overhead supply to eat through on this thing which is why i haven't sized it as big as my
other portfolio other positions it's the smallest position of my portfolio but i do like the look
here if it can eat through the 40s then maybe that's a that's the point at which i'd add an
extra couple percent of waiting to it for a move past 50 potentially.
But yeah, it's fine.
It's fine right now.
It's kind of one of those places where it's not really –
Let me –
I was just going to – real quick.
I'm pretty sure me, Sam, and Shire are along that stock too.
Yeah.
So I got leaps in this thing.
in this thing and they expire in 2026 why did they get it so close because this along gitlab
And they expire in 2026.
Why did I get it so close?
are we're trading at very suppressed valuations for the market that they're in and for how well
they are growing digital ocean is probably the best candidate of all of them i mean this thing's
trading as of today it's trading ev sales of about five times what that means is that if you take
the enterprise value you take its guided or guided means is that if you take the enterprise value, you take its guided revenue
and then divide that
under the enterprise value,
trading five times that amount.
Look at the average software stock valuation
for the top affluent players.
Now handed,
DigitalOcean is only growing at about 14%,
but their clients with AIR
are over $100,000 a year
through 35%.
So basically their largest clients
are pushing up their billings,
which is translated to revenue.
So this, it's basically like,
you know, you take the backlog
and the backlog's going to get charged,
but this isn't like an Oracle quarter
where it's 359% where it's like,
hey, I got an email saying
that you want to buy like $100 billion a company.
Let me put there my backlog.
You know, these are actually,
this is recurring revenue, right?
So that can be expected to
come to revenue. Now, it was ironic because you saw software stocks, including GitLab,
DigitalOcean, Confluent, basically get sold off to oblivion as the market went higher.
Now, this is a catch-up trade. I think the market is starting to understand this. The
chart is looking a lot better, same with GitLab as well. GitLab is still under the 200 MA.
I think it's right around 53. I saw that about a week ago or two so maybe it changed but digital ocean is probably the best
one out of all of them but yeah logical is right we've been talking about that and investing with
the boys go ahead and follow that account it's listening to this uh listening to the space right
now but we've been talking about that for a while and you know honestly hearing you talk about us
like music to my ears because everything oh look you know how many times you like pick shit out and just goes up like it's just it's great to
hear that same thing with genie today you also have the new timing guy baby i'm a timing guy
yeah hell yeah so you also have the news with gene well not with genie but with augmented reality
being put for soccer not football or real football per se my bad my bad i didn't mean to insult
but what do you think that means for a lot of the analytics
and a lot of the alpha that's happening on the back end
for a lot of sports watching?
Yeah.
Look at Hood.
I think Vinny's in a great, great position.
I mean, you even look at the numbers that came in week one,
book numbers for the NFL were fantastic.
The holds down, the holds down for multiple reasons.
Higher competition.
There's incremental betting that is going to the prediction markets.
We've seen that.
I think Kalshi just hit a billion dollars in, what is that, monthly, Evan?
Monthly postings, right?
Yeah, I believe so.
So he just hit a billion in monthly postings.
So the hold's going to go down.
For people that don't know, the margin for the books was weaker this quarter which doesn't matter for
genius genius doesn't give a shit about what their the books margins are which is part of why i like
it it's winter agnostic but um volume was up across the board for week one so uh yeah the nfl
betting numbers look great um i do think there's there's haven't decided what I'm going to do with Penn yet.
That may be a position I end up cutting.
I didn't like the action today.
It's like the only name in my portfolio that like wasn't rip roaring today.
So that, I don't love the action on Penn lately.
I am going to be a little patient with it because I do think the ESPN bet gives them
some level of market penetration, but I think there might be a concern emerging.
I don't know if people noticed DraftKings was also weak today,
as were a lot of other traditional betting names. There may be a concern emerging, I think,
that the prediction markets are going to take a bigger share than people expected.
That doesn't matter for Genius, because live betting data will have to run through Genius
anyway. They own the master data feed. But it could be a concern for the books,
not fundamentally.
You know, there was a note out from BTIG this morning and they were like, look, yeah, people are going to prediction markets to bet incrementally, but it isn't affecting volumes yet.
You know, sports books still set record volumes for week one.
So what BTIG is saying, though, is that it could dampen margins because, you know, advertising
expenses are going up across the
board especially draft kings uh you know that that was a big part of their lower hold for week one
so that could end up being a sentiment problem for the betting stocks i haven't made my mind up on it
yet you know pen isn't it feels like a huge w for robin hood a company with a incumbent business
that could help them yeah everything's good for robin i haven't with a incumbent business that could help them.
Yeah, everything's good for Robinhood.
I haven't seen a single bad piece of news for Robinhood in the last like three years.
Everything that comes out about anything seems to be good for Robinhood.
So yes, you're right.
It is good for Robinhood.
But yeah, I don't know.
I haven't made my mind up yet.
I'll have to see what the price action tells me.
I let sentiment be portrayed to me by price action.
I don't try to guess what the sentiment is.
I think that's stupid actually. But there's a lot of people that do that. They try to
think that they know what the sentiment in the market is. No, let the price tell you and the
volume tell you. That's a much smarter way to do it. And that's what I do. And so I will let the
price and volume tell me. For now, there's no high volume selling yet in those names, in the book
names. But if there is, the volume does pick up pace, then I'll probably get out of pen. But
it's a lower conviction position for me anyway. I just want to mention that, but genius, I'm not
getting out of, um, and Fubo, I'm probably not getting out of. I like the way Fubo's acting
here, heading into that merger date ahead, September 30th merger date with, uh, with Hulu
live TV. Um, so those two I'll keep in the sports, but it sports media basket, but like outside of,
like in my portfolio, if you look at all the baskets, the sports media basket is the smallest by waiting.
It's only three stocks. And, you know, obviously the nuclear energy basket's the highest by
waiting, especially after today's move in energy fuels, that basket is by far the biggest.
And yeah, I mean, DigitalOcean for me, the thesis is pretty simple.
I know you guys know the company pretty well.
For me, it's pretty simple.
Like I said, I'm a timing guy.
I like to size things and then be right quickly.
DigitalOcean put in an August HPE, highest volume ever in August.
And that is usually a high probability bottoming sign.
Not always, but it usually is.
You can see a lot of instances in the market where an HVE comes in and marks the literal absolute bottom.
HVEs are powerful.
They generally suggest institutional interest.
Not always, but generally.
There's exceptions to that when you're looking at like really, really high beta retail stocks. Like, you know, you look at stocks like Open Door,
for example, like that's probably not as much institutional. But, you know, you look at some
of these small caps like OTC stocks, that's not just because there's high volume, it doesn't mean
it's institutional. But once you start getting to like the 5 billion plus market cap range,
then you have enough liquidity for institutions to start to participate in a
meaningful way.
And when you see these quarterly or monthly volume bars that are like record
setting, that's something you should pay attention to.
But I know we have a hard cut off.
I see your hand up, but we'll see you guys tomorrow.
Yeah.
Stock talk.
Last thing about those Cowboys. One and one baby we'll take it we'll take it
we'll take it and uh the city of new york is oh and four to start the year what a what a day all
right appreciate everyone that tuned in we'll be back tomorrow uh quick programming note wednesday
we will start at 150 so we'll go live about 10 minutes before that
rate decision we've got a lot of people coming on to uh react live we'll have pal speech right here
live as well and then even more reactions and stuff beyond that so appreciate everyone tuning
in we will see you guys tomorrow on this show and right now over on wool financial for stock picks
for the week
go cowboys right now over on Wolf Financial for stock picks for the week.
Go Cowboys.
