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STOCK MARKET TALK
Recorded: March 31, 2025 Duration: 2:03:21Space Recording
Short Summary
The market is experiencing a mix of growth and decline, with significant uncertainty surrounding tariffs and economic indicators. While some sectors show potential for growth, others face challenges, and the overall sentiment remains cautious.
Full Transcription
Thank you. What is up, everyone?
Happy Monday.
Yeah, I guess we could call it a happy Monday.
After a gap down and recovery here, obviously still a lot of work to do.
It'll be interesting to hear everyone's thoughts
as we go around the panel today.
Before I go around the market,
quick heads up as we get everyone joining up here today.
Gov, Evan, and Stock Talk, all three cannot make it today.
They are actually doing something.
I'm not sure exactly where they are,
but they all had something to do this afternoon. So you're stuck with me running the show today, but we have plenty of guests to
bring up here, get some thoughts on. Obviously, we'll have the tariff liberation day. We'll have
the job report on Friday and earnings season is just a couple of weeks away, actually, if you look
at it. Next Friday, those big banks start kicking us off,
and we're right back to earnings season.
Then, looking around the market today, just a quick peek at everything.
The S&P actually went green.
I think we were down like over a percent and a half at one point.
We are up 0.3% currently on the S&P.
on the S&P. SPX just ran into that 5,600 mark, but did get back over that JPM
collar put strike that a lot of people have been noting on their charts. QQQ tech is still red,
didn't ever make it back to Friday's close, but much closer than we were this morning, of course,
after the gap down when futures opened overnight.
NVIDIA is still down 2%. Broadcom is still down 2%. Amazon down 1.6% as well as Microsoft.
And we have a couple of green names out here. Google is slightly green. Apple up 1.3%.
And Costco up 1.5%, I guess. It's a top 10 name in the NASDAQ, so we'll name that one out there on that.
Crypto itself has bounced back a little bit after a rough weekend as well.
And yeah, even small caps trying to bounce back here a little bit off of a pretty key area.
They're just slightly red, about the same as tech.
The Dow Jones, our strongest sector, I guess, or indice today, looking, they were the first ones to kind of turn the corner,
get back green on the day. Some names over in the Dow doing decently, Home Depot, Walmart,
Honeywell even green today, John Deere. And with that, let's start kicking it around and getting
everyone's thoughts,
how trading went, what their day in the market was like, and any thoughts that may have developed as we took out the last, or I guess last is this month, we were last day of the month,
we do have the quarterly rebalancing. But a couple of weeks ago, the low that was put in
got swept today. And then it's essentially been reclaimed on both the NASDAQ and the S&P.
So let's go around and get everyone's thoughts and options. Mike, I will start with you, sir.
How was your day in the market? What are you seeing out there?
Hey, Em. It was a better than expected day in the market.
We talked this morning with my members and we said, you know, it's going to be hard to short this market at the open.
We were down so much the last two days.
That said, I did short Tesla a couple of times quickly on the open, made some money and got out of the way.
But the money was to be made to the upside today.
And it's been a slow grind back up.
Do I read into this?
I don't read a lot into this.
Honest answer here.
Where's the market going from here?
I don't know. We have a new low put in of 546.87. We undercut the previous low from back on the 13th. We've reversed.
We've gone green. We have a reversal candle, but nothing's changed in the market. The tariff talk,
I guess we'll get our side answer sometime on Wednesday from a Rose Garden presentation.
Then we'll hear what the rest of the world is going to respond to it.
So I think you just kind of take today as a nice little grain of salt.
I traded some Palantir to the long side.
I traded the SPXL.
It's an ETN for the SPY to the long side today.
And at this point, I'm pretty much out of the way.
And we'll see what we're going to get here you know the banks led early energy had a nice day big cap tech not so
great it's up but not really leading um it's not where they want to go right now for whatever
reason yeah you know you look around out there it's kind of like okay we reversed market breath
is still either neutral to slightly red nothing has really changed here to me other than we have a nice candle we could pop ourselves back
up to that 563 area and reconnect with the eight day we were at one point we were like 15 or 16
handles off of it which is just a long way we were just extended so do we have a w pattern forming
here possibly and it's also possibly an h cell pattern it's too early to tell
and i think until we get through this week with the tariffs you take it day by day and you take
a trade by trade and you just uh keep an eye on what you want to own coming out of this for what
it's worth ibm is holding it like a champ just off the all-time highs uh what is going on with ibm
like is the strongest stock in the market right now well the the dividend names are the
strongest one but it's uh it had a great report it's old type money it has a lot of big money
and type in it and they're they're heavily into this ai and the integration on it so they're
they're finding people who want to be involved in it there which is a great thing you know the one
thing that bothered me today amp is you had a couple of the analysts come out. You had Jefferies and I think it was Truist.
And they did a whole bunch of price target cuts on these big cloud names and software names.
But they were minimal.
Like, they're cutting now from like $1,200 down to $1,100.
Well, the thing's down to $700.
I mean, they were just ridiculous type cuts.
And that tells me we have more pain ahead because the analysts have yet to
really decide,
figure out that we have a problem going on here and they're still way too
bullish.
So I kind of think they need to kind of like have their own capitulation
here with the markets.
You know,
from a technical standpoint,
when we look back to last week,
we talked about the 200 day a lot.
We talked about the consolidation.
We saw the,
it was what, three Mondays ago, we had a big down day.
We consolidated inside of that for essentially the next two weeks and then gapped up above,
got back to that 200-day.
And when we failed that and failed that consolidation, we went through that quickly. But anybody that was long, I mean, I'm sorry, anybody that went short, Mike, to your point
here on the technical side of things, anybody that was short, swinging short into this weekend and into this week,
you know, they got their new, you know, their lower low today. And you see a bunch of the
shorts covering. That's about all I made out of today, at least on my end. So I don't know if
that's kind of what you were seeing as well. I played the short side last night and then got
on the long side early this morning and about noon.
I haven't done a thing, but just watch this thing continue to squeeze back up.
I figured we'd fill the gap up down from this morning. It just made sense.
That's why I got into the SPXL and I rode that up to this afternoon.
I don't know here. Now we're continuing to grind. Is there some short covering? Sure.
But I think we were just too extended.
I think it was too much down too fast and the market still doesn't know.
And we're dealing with market is uncertain.
So it doesn't want to completely fall apart yet until it knows what's going on or go way back up.
Yeah, absolutely.
Of course, you look at like the last three days before today's session, we had moved down, you know, just over three and a half percent with this morning's move.
We were down close to five percent, I think, from that that high when we were.
What was that? Thursday's high, Wednesday's high.
So, yeah, a little overextended on the shorter time frames.
And I could see to your point here, I could see just the the back test type of argument.
You know, we're filling the gap and we're coming back up to back test what was previous
support over the last couple of weeks.
But we'll see what happens.
Jeffrey, I want to go over your direction next.
It's great to have you.
It's a Monday, which is always fun to have you switch things up.
Glad you could make it.
I was looking at some of your stuff this morning, actually.
I was looking at the post-election year, that first year of the presidency.
And it seems like this is maybe the time where you do bottom, though.
I know there's a lot of other question marks out there, but I'm interested to hear an update from you.
Yeah, you know, first of all, who was speaking just before said something very important.
He said the three most important words,
I don't know.
I just did a podcast with Barry Ritholtz,
recorded it.
I'm putting it out there today.
I guess everyone knows who Barry is.
I've known Barry for like 20 plus years.
She and I are old friends,
but I'm reading his book.
It's amazing.
It's really, really well.
But he talks about this, you know, emotional maturity and the history most important words.
I don't know.
So I think it's very important that we realize that no one really knows.
So post-election year, good case scenario, as you see on the charts.
scenario as you see on the charts yeah and you were coming into april um kind of when we see a
Yeah.
You were coming into April.
turn q1's that weak spot i've spoken about on this uh you know on these spaces um thank you
for letting me jump over to monday by the way thursdays have been getting busy because i'm
doing this uh recording the podcast on fridays um but uh you know with with the market down for the quarter, you know, as of Friday's close, 5.1% S&P.
I know we're up a little bit today.
I'll get to the technical W in a second, which is, I think, everyone's looking at that.
But seasonally, there's an old saying from Edson Gould, late great analyst, that, you know, when the market doesn't rally during the bullish season, that means that there are other forces, more powerful forces that are impacting the market.
And then when that seasonal period ends, those forces can really have their say.
So we're at kind of a, you know, real critical time for the market to prove itself.
I think what we're talking about here, technically, it's got to prove itself. And also, seasonally, if we can't get green in April, I'm concerned that we're going to end up with more of that old school Republican post-election year pattern pre-85 that is on page 28 of the Almanac that I put some charts out on.
I think what we're talking about here, technically, it's got to prove itself.
page 28 of the Almanac that I put some charts out on.
I'll update that probably tomorrow on the blog or on the feed.
But we're tracking that negative pattern of years when after incumbent parties lose the
White House, years when like, you know, 57, 69, 73, when new Republicans came in and really
shook things up.
And what we're seeing here is
potentially like never before uh we don't know yet it's early but the market and and the consumer
and the world really seems to be um taking pause with what's happening here uh politically politically, economically, you know, here in the States.
So that said, this W pattern that was mentioned,
I've added the, we call it a W123 swing bottom,
right out of the technical handbook.
The way I learned it was actually my old friend,
John Persson kind of taught me this.
He's a great trader.
It's that middle two, which I have roughly at 57.75 on the S&P.
Yeah, it looks like we're bouncing off of that earlier March low.
That would be the three point of the W there.
But until we clear the middle, which is this resistance area between 5670, the July high, and the mid-March high there, 5775, also right on the election gap,
that was like the close of election day before we gapped open, gapped up the next day,
which is another area that's circled on the chart.
And then I drew this trend line from the April 2024 low through the August 2024 low.
And the line extends to right at 5,500, which we bounced off of today.
Yeah, it could have been short cover.
It's got a hole that would be encouraging. So, you know, Barry and I mentioned, discussed
Warren Buffett. And, you know, unlike baseball, you can really just leave your bat on the shoulder
for a while, wait for that fatter pitch. And that's kind of where I'm at right now.
We've got some positions we were stopped out of a bunch of things, but it's,
you know, definitely a troublesome market with the Q1 being down, the negative post-election
year patterns, the best six months on the ropes. A lot of things going on in DC and
looks like growth is down, you know, GDP, inflation was up a bit.
So a lot to be watched and trading is not necessarily required right now.
So that's what I'm looking at.
Well, I liked everything you said, but I definitely like that last part.
Trading is not required.
I think people do lose sight of that.
That's been a common theme I've heard.
You've also, I don't know.
We've heard that from a lot of people right now
that there's just not enough information right now
to really paint a full picture.
So, but great insights there, Jeffrey.
I always appreciate you going into the seasonality
side of things over there.
And of course, jump back in the conversation at any point.
Do want to make sure we get around
to everyone's thoughts up here.
Brian Lund saw you up here.
Let me throw your direction next, and then we'll go over to Scott.
Yeah, shout out to Jeff.
I hope he makes it to future proof this year.
I just got my ticket, so that will be awesome out here in HB.
So, look, I'm looking at every time we do one of these spaces, I'm trying to say something that's of value to the people that are listening in the audience.
Right. Nobody wants to hear what I did today.
I think they want to hear things that hopefully have value to them.
And we've got over 500 people listening right now.
So, you know, I said to my subscribers on February 21st, that that big down day when we started to roll over early in the day, I said, we're going into a risk off mode right now.
And, you know, you never know how long you're going to go into these modes.
Like maybe the risk off mode would end the next day.
But I'm always trying to look at the market on a scale of zero to 10.
You know, zero would be risk off.
10 would be risk on. see where we're at,
and then adjust appropriately. If you're in a risk on market, you're having more trades because the
market's more forgiving, you're taking larger position sizes, and you're taking larger time
frames, meaning you're willing to hold overnight and over weekend because you've estimated that
the risk is lower. It's obviously the opposite when
it's risk off, right? Fewer or no trades, right? Smaller position size, so you can manage your risk.
And you're really not holding overnight, ideally, because you just don't know what could happen
between the close and the open. So when I look at the markets and I look at the people that are out
there, I kind of break them into two sections, into traders and investors.
And then within those sections, there's different strata.
Like you can be a very active day trader.
You can be a swing trader.
You can be a position trader.
You can be an investor who just puts your money in and doesn't do anything.
But you can also be an active investor, which is kind of a hybrid.
investor, which is kind of a hybrid. It's someone that doesn't really want to trade, but they want
to use trading skills to get good entry points on positions that they'll then hold over time.
So ever since we went into that risk off mode on the 21st, it's really wiped out most of those
categories, meaning like most of those categories shouldn't have been involved in the market,
certainly not active investors, certainly not buying hold investors, certainly not swing trading.
Unless you are a very active intraday trader, there hasn't been a whole lot for you to do.
And so I think the problem is, is every time we get this counter trend bounce, either intraday or for a day or two, a lot of the people that are maybe newer to the market in the
last five years, they think that's it, right? And then they go all in. They're not trying to be very
strategic. So it's been a tough market. Having said that, this morning, I could feel the fear
out there, right? I saw a tweet out there from Matthew Iglesias, and it was something along the lines of like, you know, he said something like, I hate to say this, but I think for the first time in my lifetime, you know, America, America's time is over. hyperbolic things like that, especially when the market's down. Sometimes that's a short-term
signal, not just to go in and buy, but to be on watch. That gives you a sense that maybe we're
at a short-term extreme in terms of fear, and there might be some sort of tradable patterns.
And that's what we saw today. We saw the market gap down. It firmed up. It did what you want to
see the market do. It recaptured the
five, the nine EMA. Then it recaptured the 20. Then it recaptured the opening range.
And you saw some names firm up, right? So the way that you would play that is you would
take some of those names. And if you get a good, strong close and you feel confident,
you can maybe sell half or sell a third, and then you can hold overnight because
you've gotten a good entry price. You've taken some risk off. You have some cushion, and it's
okay if things don't follow through tomorrow. That's a strategic way of looking at the market.
And like I said before, a lot of people just like, okay, the market looks like it's bouncing.
They buy at the close, and then next thing they know, it gaps down the following day.
So it's all about how you're looking at the market, how you're managing your own risk and how you're managing that in relation to the time frame that you're trading in.
Go ahead, Jeffrey, jump in and then we'll go to Scott.
Yeah, Brian, how you doing, buddy? I hope to see you out in Future Proof this year as well. I'm working on it. It was definitely good two years ago. Great, actually.
I spent some time over the weekend looking through and reading the sort of mainstream or non-financial news and looking for that fear.
I wasn't feeling it, and I wasn't seeing it out there on Main Street or off the financial stuff.
There was no breaking news, a market crisis kind of stuff, specials on CNBC or any of that stuff.
So I'm not sure we're at that point of real capitulation.
Like when people buy toilet paper, you buy stocks kind of point in time.
So I don't know.
Maybe there was some there this morning in the trading desk and out there in there in the fintech or whatever the Twitter sphere, fintech sphere.
But I wasn't feeling the fear of the market across the, you know, the non-financial arena.
Anyone else seeing that? Well, before you go into that, let me just comment on that.
that. Let me just comment on that. So like fear adds and flows in different timeframes too,
So like fear adds and flows in different time frames, too. Right.
right? You can get a more macro fear, like one that we had at the bottom in 2022,
and you can get short-term fear when you get real quick moves. The thing that I was talking about
was Matthew Iglesias said, for the first time in my life, I really just think America may be cooked
and it's going to be the Chinese century, right? I don't know. To me, that just struck me as
hyperbolic, especially at the lows of two big down days. And again, that was my cue to start
looking for possibly a turn. I'm not saying it's going to happen, but there's a lot of puzzle
pieces you put together. Now, an example of macro fear, like the fear where you're like at the end of a downtrend and the market's going to turn.
So I remember that fear in October of 2022. I remember it during COVID. Like I literally remember the day that the market bottomed in COVID. It was rainy and cold out here in Southern
California. I felt the fear online. I felt the fear at the supermarket. I literally I've told the story before. I literally drove to the gun and ammo shop to make sure I had.
Right. I'm not lying. Guns and butter. Right. And so, yeah. Right. And then I went to the supermarket where almost everything was sold out. Right.
That was more of a macro. Oh, my God, what's happening type of fear.
Today's fear, I just felt was like maybe a short term, uh, isolation. And, uh, I, I'm not saying we put the bottom and I'm just saying if you're going to be
strategic, you know, you just have to know what sort of timeframe you're playing in. And I do
believe that fear can ebb and flow in those different timeframes. Fair enough.
Hey guys. Um, sorry, a little late, just a lot going on today and i listened i was able to listen to
you guys a little bit and everyone has a lot to add and everyone has been doing this a long time
so that's really good i don't think anyone here is on the side of capitulating into lows and
chasing four or five days up so for those of you who are very new this is a good spot for you guys
to listen to and like you don't have to have capitulation, fear and craziness for a trade.
Sometimes a trade is a trade in the life.
And this morning, I think most traders wanted the down open that we had.
There was no fear there.
People, we closed in the lows on Friday after, you know, reinserting the negative trend on Wednesday.
So it actually, the market followed through
and did what it was supposed to do.
It opened up down so those guys short could cover
and then gave people who actually got stopped out last week
a better entry and made them feel better about themselves.
Today was like the first day in a while
where it really followed momentum rules
where it was a good trade.
And then for those of you who know me for a long time,
I always have that fun saying, the red dog reversal,
which is a tactic that a lot of people know.
All that is, is, you know, the March 13th low is 549.68.
This morning in the first half hour, we went to 546.87 and then reclaimed that spot.
A lot of computers out there buy that spot, put a stop at the low of the day.
And they're now up, you know, $10 in the spies on a day that it didn't matter if this is the low of the next month.
But it was a great trade for today.
And now, you know, it also reclaimed 555 instead of getting rejected there, which was Friday.
It also showed a little bit of power.
And now, you know, I think maybe, I guess, there's room to 561 to 564.
And then you overlay the stocks that you trade to do that.
And, you know, it's a great start
to the week and then you figure out what's next. You know, on a more bigger timeframe, I also agree
that I don't think that, you know, today's low is going to be the low of the next three months,
but that's just a conversation. And that's where more people who are sitting on cash and say, hey,
I need to allocate cash, you know, in an account in an IRA or, you
know, wherever it is.
So this morning, you know, I was in my 630 club and I said, listen, if you haven't put
any money to work and you're sitting on all cash, today's probably not the perfect time,
but you could 10% off highs, you could put a third, you know, and then if we go down
four or 5% in two months from now, you could do another third and the whole blood on the
street scenario that we go over.
But if you trade tactically for a living, hopefully know you're not jumping out of your seat you shouldn't
be so long why would you buy the clothes on a friday when momentum was like that if you're short
great job you you did the right thing cover some and then now we see if we could play a tactical
long and that was today so it's good that it all worked out hopefully some of you guys all made
some really good money because if you didn't make money today, if you're an active trader, I think that you need to really check your process.
If you shorted the open this morning and now you're like, what do I do?
After on the fourth down day, not the best probability or risk reward.
Now, if you're buying the Spies at 558, probably not the best risk reward, even if we go to
561.
So the way you prepare at those levels and
the way you execute is just making sure you're up early you're doing your progress you're getting
set so when things trigger and go and you get your clues you can make your money and then figure out
how long you want to hold it on and if you bought just say you bought the spies at 549.68 and you
sold it at 553 you know what you made money don't be pissed that it's at 558 or next time figure out
how you could trail some and then just keep learning and growing and figuring out your time
frame and uh you know tomorrow is the first day of a of a new quarter so you know people in their
head were thinking maybe we get a little bit of a rebalanced by which looks like it's happening and
if we do you know potentially they open up tomorrow for some of the new flows, the lazy new flows from some of these fund managers that just put it to work.
So that could be that could have been the day and a half bounce, just like we had that three day bounce.
So you have to kind of think about the mechanics, the bigger picture, the micro picture, and then, you know, execute and then probably can make a living at this if you put all that together and put in the work.
Go ahead, Mike, jump in.
Yeah, I mean, I think I just want to ask, add here, a lot of people talking, you know, fear. I don't feel like the shorts have ever, through this whole bounce, have ever been like worried.
To me, like they've been adding to them, they've been, i haven't seen a lot of short covering the rally we had here you know we had some maybe a little bit once or twice through this whole rally but not
much and to me the shorts are just comfortable and when shorts are comfortable that is not a
time you want to be sitting there trying to buck the trend you take trades you get in and out but
man if they're comfortable sitting in this eventually they're going to get burned but
right now they are reloading and that to me is what worries me and you know that's the problem
right now can i say something i mean worries you worries you being short well no worries me are
trying to buck the trend and go long when they're when they're so comfortable being this short and
not trying to cover that's usually a problem well you can go long for a day, like today, maybe go back to short
tomorrow. But also, to me, I don't think I think shorts made money in this market. I think this
was a lot of deleveraging selling. This wasn't like, you know, you see bigger squeezes when
it's really the shorts in control. I think, you know, a lot of people came into this year offsides,
they thought the administration would be pro growth, they thought that, you know, Trump would
be, you know, touting the stock market, and they were dead wrong because they wanted to rinse out the excess spending.
They wanted to bring in the economy.
They wanted rates lower, and they didn't care that the stock market needed to detox.
And that's what they said to get the market down.
So the first 10% down in the S&P was really net sellers.
People were offside, and maybe some shorts who saw it technically were
able to jump on but i don't think it's like the shorts that are in control of this market
you know maybe soon you know but the first part of this whole move lower was people caught off
sides way too long with the s p p way too high because we're not pro growth right now we're in a
pretty you know a little bit of a slower growth the question now is how slow will we grow and how
i mean how yeah exactly how slow will we be? And how, I mean, yeah, exactly.
How slow will we be?
And how long will these tariffs last?
And do we get a lot of pre-announcements?
I think that's the next big thing
that people are going to worry about
is that the earnings season
hasn't been ratcheted down, in my opinion.
And I think that we're going to have
a lukewarm earnings season.
And then probably guidance is going to be not great.
And then that's when maybe we take another leg lower
to the average move off the highs, which is more like 14% in the S&P. guidance is going to be not great. And then that's when maybe we take another leg lower to
the average move off the highs, which is more like 14% in the S&P, but that doesn't have to
be for two, three weeks. I mean, Scott, I mean, think about this. They just gave every company
the cover to guide down, right? Every company has covered a guy down right now.
So you're saying that you guide down and then we go up and then the shorts get screwed.
Yeah. Okay. That's exactly what I'm thinking.
That's exactly what I'm thinking.
Depends where we are.
In two weeks from now, if we bounce back up towards 565, because that's where the 8th
day is and we're at 557, it'll be a little harder for that.
But if all of a sudden we reverse with the tariff news on April 2nd and we're down at
538 or 536 in the spies then maybe on the lows then they could
trap the shorts and say it was priced and it all depends when earnings season starts so it's but
that's a good thought to have because a lot of people out there like hey they're guarding down
why you know why is it up you know because the stock just dropped you know 40 in four weeks and
they knew it i'm just not sure that the market knows the extent of the
guide down with us only 10 off the highs um in a in an offsides ish type tape after two huge years
so just you know but it's good to think about that you have to know where your stock is where
the market is when you go into earnings season because are we oversold did they do a pre-market
move sometimes you know a stock will do a pre- stock will do a pre-earnings move for five days and then guide up and they'll sell it.
And they're like, what the hell happened?
It's like, you know what, it was at an all-time high and it came from 20% lower.
So where it comes from and where we are when the new narrative changes is definitely very important.
So that's a great point.
What's up, Gary? What's on your mind today hey I just want to bring up I think as a long-term investor who really doesn't trade that much it's happy to see that the traders are trading and
stuff like that but I did want to bring up if anybody thinks that this tariff thing can't get
worse just go back and
look at the Larry King show in 1987 when he interviewed Donald Trump. This clip came from
the All In podcast this weekend. He was screaming about reciprocal tariffs in 1987. So if you don't
think that this tariff war could get even worse, Just wait until Wednesday. I also listened to Josh Brown's
podcast this week too. And that was all about, hey, the second half of this year. And I think
Scott just hit it right on. I think we're going to have a Luke earning season. But for me,
But for me, Google selling at 2021 prices, I just posted a chart on it.
Cloud revenue in 2021 was $17 billion.
Today, it's $43 billion.
Google subscriptions went from $27 billion to $40 billion.
And YouTube revenue, $27 billion to $36 billion.
MrBeast's channel, one of the most important assets on YouTube, had 10 million subscribers back in 2021.
And you're getting it at the same price.
Amazon, super similar.
It's running right up against the $188 old resistance on a weekly chart.
We posted that chart.
And it seems to be holding a support.
So for me, I think this is offering
opportunities. But again, I'm such a long term trader. I think Scott's right that, hey, I'm much
more of an investor. Microsoft is breaking down. I don't know what the fuck brings that thing back
up. You know, Meta, I'll take it under $600. But we better not be heading into an ad recession
where people start pulling back.
I think it was Palo Alto Networks this weekend.
Their CEO said, I'm fine where I'm at as far as AI.
I don't want to spend another dollar.
I don't care about the incremental dollar.
So if you get into this earning season and those mega scalers or the hyperscalers start pulling back at all,
I think the AI stuff unwinds i think
we just had a death cross on the xlk if i'm not mistaken so i think it does matter where you put
your money i said it this morning to to my crew i said hey you just gotta make it you know during
these times when i was trading in 2000 in 2008 um, even in 2018 when the first tariff war went on, I constantly just asked my money, where's my money going to earn the most?
And if it's in cash, it's in cash because staying in cash isn't bad.
But I don't want to be caught off sides either. I want to look for my opportunities
and for something like Google or something like Amazon, where you've just got a better business
at the same price that you had it three, four years ago, I'm fine stepping in.
Listen, that's a great point. And for someone who maybe doesn't get paid in March or paid in April,
that's something really good to think about.
Because sometimes the other argument is maybe –
Scott, I'm retired.
I'm retired.
So this is perfect for you.
That's 100%.
I hope to do the same thing when I'm retired.
I want to make sure that I could keep my entire account kind of in the market, sell premium around it and be in the best names and not worry about what month it is or what quarter it is and
just know what the right thing to do is, which usually pays off anyway, and then beyond that
timeframe. Listen, you sound very sophisticated. You know what you're doing, so I'm not questioning
it, and I get it. I fully get it. I was looking at- I'm glad I fooled you, Scott.
I was looking at those levels too. This morning, when I looked at the chart of Google, I'm like,
this has been sold for the last three weeks,
you know, since the earning,
like technically it had a gap and go.
It didn't have, it had like lukewarm earnings last quarter.
So that's why Google and Microsoft
has been like off traders radars
and it actually followed suit like it should have.
So now it needs to kind of be reborn again
with a different narrative,
whatever that narrative is.
And we'll, I guess, find that out.
You know, it could be next quarter if it's near the lows and it's lukewarm and it goes up and they're like, okay, now there's value there and it's priced in.
But, you know, if you do your homework like you do, which shows right there, you know, you could definitely, there's going to be a lot of opportunity.
Just the question is, in 10% off the high, because if we go down 14% or 15% off the off the highs you know google's not a bargain right here but you know what if google shows relative strength during the next leg of
the move down and and rebuilds and you know then it's like okay google could be a leader again and
go after that let's go after amazon but for right now google kind of led tech lower amazon kind of
led tech lower the sami's led tech lower so until that relationship changes for traders you have to
be a little cautious you know if you if you need to be a little bit more of a market timer
versus a swing trader where it doesn't matter as much
jump in jeffrey yo uh somebody mentioned death cross
we got um scott redler on the line there still right yeah yeah Jump in, Jeffrey. Yo, somebody mentioned Death Cross.
We got Scott Redler on the line there still, right?
Yeah, yeah.
Is my memory bad?
Aren't Death Crosses really more like a bottom?
Isn't that what's been proven these days? It's kind of like a misnomer?
Well, it's kind of like isn't the neckline of a head and shoulders top
isn't that a fake
breakdown buy area because when you're in a really strong tape for multiple years usually get a head
and shoulders top and then when the neckline breaks you get another big move lower and over
the course of last few years usually that neckline doesn't break and it's more of a a false short and
a better buy so you know the death cross or the golden cross usually that means we've
just been in a very weak time period with lots of distribution and there's not that many time frames
where you get a bigger move down so you're kind of right most of the time but when you do and they
say nothing happens good below the 200 day because sometimes it can go on for more than what we're
used to which we haven't had in a while.
So the death cross technically is bad.
And usually that means we're oversold enough for a bounce.
And when we get that bounce, if it's feeble and it's sold
and you see the signals, usually the months and quarters ahead
aren't great for that stock.
And what do you think about that middle of the W
that I was talking about earlier?
I don't know if you heard that, the 57-75 level.
Is that really a level?
It's a little, you know, it just shows you, like, you know, like today's move.
Today's move was kind of, you know, not a feeble reversal.
What you want to do is you want to measure, like, where would it get rejected.
It didn't get rejected at Friday's low in the Spies.
It didn't get rejected at that low.
I think you're talking about the one on March 21st, that low, which was...
March 13th, I think it was.
Oh, no, that's the Red Dog reversal low.
That's where it was bought.
That's your entry.
Yeah, that was a great entry this morning.
I'm talking about now that...
Yeah, not the low, but the high there, the March 24th or 5th.
March 24th or 5th march 24th or 5th 57 75 or 57 76 right to close
okay yeah yeah that's that was that was the high on march 25th and then really we broke below the
the low of that march 25th that's when the active bears took over again and then we came all the way
for today which was the fourth day now i would think like if I'm thinking ahead, if the active bears want to keep control, you know, and reject this bounce,
this, it should not get above 563, 564. That's the eight day. That's where, you know, tomorrow,
if just say we close well and new flows come in and there's no tariff headlines like tomorrow
at 565-ish is where, or 564-ish is where you would think sellers would come back if
they're selling into strength. If it starts going above that, then you're like, oh, wait, you know,
maybe the sellers don't have so much control. And then you think about the next spot, which would
then be the 200 day again, which has been a bit of a problem. So there's always like ways to map
out spots. And, you know, the meaning is an end all end all. It's just a point of reference and
just a way to frame your risk on what's an easy trade and where does it get tougher? And, you know, the meaning is an end all end all. It's just a point of reference and just a way to frame your risk on what's an easy trade and where does it get tougher? And, you
know, who has more control on that day or that week? And Jeff, just so you know, the last death
cross on XLK happened in May 2022. And it was followed the next two months were 23% down.
and it was followed the next two months were 23% down.
So I don't think it's not a bad long-term strategy.
Death cross is more bad for the S&P and the broad indices
than the sector, like you're saying there.
That's worth noting for sure.
Yeah, just post it in the chart if anybody wants to look at it.
By the way, you both are valid
because usually by the time you get the death cross,
we're oversold enough for a bounce.
And typically if you do get a death cross, it's been through so much distribution.
It's acting so poorly that nobody wants to own it.
So it just goes a lot lower over time until there's a new narrative.
So both are usually right.
And that looks like what happened in 2022.
It did have a bounce.
Yeah.
Right.
The Christmas in July, the midsummer bounce
yeah and you know that's why again it's your time frame like usually like again markets in
turmoil when it's on cnbc that's that means the oscillator is probably minus 70 it's time for a
bounce but it doesn't mean that the low was in during that segment you know it means that it
was that oversold everyone got really old necked out and it was a great trade and then the question is where does it go and then you use your fibonacci
retracement based on where it bounces to how feeble is that rally or strong is that rally to
figure out how to react and trade next we all should have known what was happening today because
kramer came out and said i can't think of a dumber day to buy stocks than today
when jim cries on, it's about him.
Right.
Tomorrow, no, what's going to happen is tomorrow we're going to open up a 563.
He's like, I like them long, and then we're going to fade and go down,
and then that'll be it.
I do want to continue around the panel here,
make sure we get everyone involved.
David, we've got you up here on stage.
I want to see if you had any thoughts around the conversation or any of
your own that you want to bring to the table.
Do we have David? If we don't have David, I can continue on.
Hey, guys, I got to jump off. I have to be on my radio for the close. I appreciate you.
And have a good close, and we'll see where we are tomorrow morning with some new flows.
And we'll measure out some of those areas on good close, and we'll see where we are tomorrow morning with some new flows. We'll measure
out some of those areas on the charts, and it'll definitely
be posted.
Yes, sir. I've got to get some other things going on
too. I'll be back. Maybe I'll jump in on Thursday again
too. We'll see if I've got time.
I'll just leave.
Whoa, whoa, whoa.
Thanks, Jeffrey. Thanks, Scott. Both of you.
Glad to have you on today. Of course,
open door, swing by any day.
Let's keep going around.
I didn't hear anything from David there.
So let's go over to Logical.
Logical, how was your day in the market?
What are your thoughts?
Yeah, actually, I was positioned very well going into today.
I was only 25% net long.
That means that I had about like 80% long and 55% short.
So that seemed like pretty good, especially given how we opened today.
One issue, though, a lot of my lungs were biotechs.
And I don't know if you saw the news on Friday after the market closed, but basically RFK ousted the FDA commissioner, which was a minus 6% open on XBI today.
And if you look at that candle right now, it's nice to see a bounce
on very big volume. Hopefully it's a hammer candle. Hopefully we saw some capitulation
in that sector because it's basically just been going down, down, down for the last four years.
And, you know, I don't think sentiment could get any worse in that sector, but yeah, you know,
it really sucks because, you know, I felt very constructive around that, but maybe this is kind
of the sentiment washout we finally needed because while it was just kind of grinding
lower, we never really got a big capitulation gap down day like that. And I think, you know,
some of the fears are, you know, FDA is going to be restricted and, you know, there's less
flexibility now in terms of getting approvals, et cetera. But yeah, I mean, I like to see that
basically XBI got bought up pretty nicely from the lows today.
Clearly not like green on the day because that was just an extremely bad day for it.
But I definitely went shopping and I added to my favorite names.
You can notice that the strength today was in the commercial stage names, things that don't need approval anymore.
The things that need approval,
some that I talk about, I mean, we're down double digits today. I mean, just absolutely crazy day
for some of these names. So while I was positioned very nicely for a majority of the market,
that XBI basically took me out today, which was not fun because I do have a lot of biotech holdings.
But I think it's going to look like pretty good buys today in that sector
because I don't think anything's fundamentally changed for these companies,
just maybe some headwinds.
But you're clearly being compensated for the risk at these prices.
So, yeah, I was a buyer today.
I bought Bank of Columbia today.
It was down like 9% due to the ex-dividend date. That seemed like a good
buy. You could see that thing bounce really hard now at highs of the day. I re-entered China
at KWeb and that looks like it is near back to flat on the day, which is nice. I added the new
bank. I added a lot of long. So I came into today 25%
net long. I'm probably closer to 75, 80% net long now. So yeah, I mean, we came here into today and
things were down a lot. You saw kind of buying at the open and I definitely covered some shorts.
I added back some longs. I'm still very, look,
I'm the kind of person right now, this is a trader's market. So I have my trader hat on and
I'm just looking for good prices to add to. I don't know if today was necessarily capitulation,
but if you look at the charts, somewhat of a decent double bottom potentially. And, you know, maybe we can get a
little bit of a run from here, but, you know, I just have, I'm just hyper paranoid. So I added
to things mostly that I like that I still think will do good if we get any sort of economic
slowdown. Like I said, biotech, China, they're stimulating over there. So that's good. Latin America, you know, there's a lot of tailwinds there as well.
So, you know, those are the main ads.
But, you know, I did add to other things as well, like my small caps that I really like,
like Magnite, Pumatic, which on the ad tech side, I added to, I added some software names
back today.
I re-entered Snowflake, which is right down to the 200-day.
I re-entered Amplitude, which is a small-cap software name.
It's down to the 200-day.
Braze, which had a really good earnings report last week, basically gave back all of those gains and is back to the 20-day.
So I re-entered Braze.
I re-entered Lending Club after I covered my SoFi short. I mean,
I just did a lot of things today and just flipping from kind of really low long exposure to kind of
a lot more long exposure. And like, I'm still very like this thing can change tomorrow. If we
get a nasty day tomorrow, I'm going to go back to defensive. So, you know, take it with a grain of
salt. What I'm saying is like, I'm very price action focused at this point.
And I think, you know, being active in this market requires, you know, being able to pivot.
I keep seeing this phrase that people are throwing around.
It's like strong opinions loosely held or something like that.
And I think that's kind of where I'm at as well is I'm just ready to pivot at
any moment. And yeah, so I think, you know,
you got Kramer saying today was not a day to buy and clearly it was,
but I don't want to look too deep into one day price action because it could
just be end of month, end of quarter buying. And so I'm, you know, again,
hypersensitive to that, but And so I'm, you know, again, hypersensitive to
that. But in the near term, you know, we felt pretty hard and we were bouncing. And so I didn't
want to stay as short and I wanted to buy things that I think are at decent prices. So that's what
I did today. I'm trying to think if there's anything specific, but yeah, I mean, I think
some of the biggest bargains were probably some overreaction, in my view, in the biotech sector on some of these late stage clinical names, things that are in phase three, etc.
Obviously, one big piece of news that came out today was rocket companies buying Cooper Group for a huge $9.4 billion price tag, all stock deal. They just bought Redfin.
They're betting very heavily right now on a turn in the housing market.
So we really do need to see the 10-year come down.
I slightly trimmed my position for Rocket today on that news because, damn, are they betting big. I think you got a phone call there logical I was going to text you about that exact
there you are you you glitched out for just a second there logical sorry yeah I got a call
um yeah so I think Rocket is either going to be a double or triple or it's going to be like this
year based on that or it's like if we don't get the 10 year down uh this it's going to be like this year based on that. Or it's like, if we don't get
the 10 year down, this thing is going to have headwinds. But I mean, if you look at it from
like a, think about it like a, you know, risk reward perspective, you got to think about where
a lot of these companies are right now. We are at potentially the bottom of the housing market
in terms of activity. So, you know, they're making a pretty big bet that this
thing will turn for the better in terms of like transactions, not necessarily to say that housing
prices are going to go up. That's clearly not what I'm saying. They're going to win regardless,
as long as activity heats up. And that's only going to happen if the housing market gets unlocked
via lower rates. So they're making a very big bet. So I still have a very sizable
position in Rocket, but man, are they ballsy right now. But I think we might just look back
on these moments as like, damn, these guys just waited, you know, years through this, you know,
two, three years of basically real estate activity depression just before the turn,
bought these companies that have, you know,
you know, like right before these things potentially turn. So they're making a huge bet
and hopefully it works out. But yeah, we'll have to see. Crazy day. Honestly, I really do think
this was a very interesting day today. I don't even know what to make of it. Just be on your
toes and buy things you like at good prices, but be willing to understand that we could easily see
more lows from here. But yeah, I reduced my shorts. I increased my longs, stuff like that.
There's so much going on. Yeah. I was saying I almost text you when i saw that news because i remembered that
from the real estate business uh my my background over there i've dealt with
all those companies and uh it's interesting to see that umbrella getting a little bit bigger
there because they did buy redfin recently and then mr cooper basically if it cooper group but
mr cooper is the name that i think most people will recognize there on the mortgage side of things.
I did think that was interesting.
I'm going to call it out.
Great call out there.
Logical.
Appreciate your thoughts as well.
And let's see.
Sam, let's go to you next, and we'll hit Wolf.
Yeah.
Yeah, I mean, for the most part, I've been buying slowly on the way down.
I mean, for the most part, I've been buying slowly on the way down.
I've been focusing more on the high conviction games, especially Amazon, Google, and started a few new positions lately.
But at the same time, my buys are really concentrated in the high conviction stuff.
It really depends, like, the way you look at it.
I'm not a believer that the AI hype is necessarily over even the AI wave.
I think we're probably pretty early in,
in these innings because I do work in industry and I do have like kind of
firsthand knowledge. I'm not saying that I'm an expert or anything,
but I see the potential of the capability of using LLMs or using any type of
AI tool with my work. And just like kind of projecting this out,
especially when talking to a lot of people is that there is a lot of potential with it. But
however, you know, when you when it comes to the CapEx that a lot of these mega cap companies are
spending, that's probably something to question. But I would really attribute that to more of I
don't want to say noise, because it obviously does matter, but for short term,
that might be pretty important when it comes to timing. Because to say that AI is over is pretty
much saying that the whole thing might not be as good as people think. And a lot of the money that
was spent could possibly go to waste, but in the short term might hit the financials. And especially
what the guys were saying earlier when it comes to the guides. If the economy truly is slowing down, I'm one believer that this stuff tends to be more of,
I don't want to say confirmation bias, but if a lot of companies are preparing for a recession
because they see a slowdown coming, then that in itself will bring the recession inevitably
because of the fact that since they're slowed down their spending, other companies with who their clients for are going to see reduced revenue and so on.
It's all going to be basically a cascading effect.
But at the same time, thinking from more of a long perspective, like some of the guys were saying earlier, is that when you look at Google trading at a very suppressed valuation, especially when it comes to being the third largest hyperscale in the entire world. Certainly, it's not as giant as Amazon. But when you think of the growth rate that
it is, as well as expanding its margins, I would say that it definitely does warrant a buy here,
because I have been a buyer of Google. Again, not really heavy with the buys that I'm doing,
buying slowly and methodically, and so on. Not necessarily trying to call the bottom here.
I mean, obviously seeing the way that things turned out today,
but as logic was saying, it is month end.
So maybe this is the month end markup.
Who knows?
We'll see more of that later on this week.
But yeah, I mean, April 2nd is a day,
but I'm not going to say that it is necessarily going to be a V-shaped
recovery on Wednesday,
but unless news comes out that is significantly worse
or the tariffs might be significantly worse than what was originally said,
then that might lead to more downside.
But the way that I see it is that if there is more certainty in the market
or less uncertainty in the market once these tariffs come on,
then maybe that would be some sort of less selling pressure into the market
because we've been seeing so much selling pressure lately.
And yes, the oversold conditions do matter to a certain extent.
But from a long-term perspective, I think that if you are someone who's buying a company like, let's say, Amazon for five or 10 years, and you look at the prices today, or maybe even Google, probably a better example, and you look at the prices today, and you think to yourself, okay, well, Google is probably going to be priced lower in five or 10 years
and don't buy it. But if you're someone who kind of looks at the overall perspective and saying that
just reflecting on the historical trends of the probability of stocks going on 90% of the time,
even though yes, they have gone pretty much vertical for the last couple of years.
But if you're investing for more of the long-term timeframe, then today probably is a good time
to buy.
And like someone was saying, maybe not as a whole, like deplete all your cash today,
but just depleted or start spending the cash over time to invest in these companies.
And if you're a trader, then yeah, do set that stop loss.
But when it comes to more of the long-term perspective,
I don't see, unless Google is going to, well, they don't necessarily guide, but unless the economy does go on a slowdown, not buying today would be very similar to trying to time your buys.
But for a long-term perspective, timing your buys by let's say $10, like you, oh, I want to wait
until Google is about $140, right? But you're thinking long-term,
I'm not sure if that will really matter whether you buy Google at $145 or $155, if it's for a
five or 10-year hold. Definitely for a short-term hold, that time is going to matter. But for a
long-term hold, I mean, at this point, nibbling in wouldn't be a bad idea if you're much more
on the conservative side. But if you're someone who's building that portfolio for a long term and you're constant dollar cost averaging,
I don't see why today would not be a day to buy unless you do foresee more weakness in the market or recession.
But in that case, that will just be timing the market, which I'm not really someone to be speaking to that because I'm not as adventurous as you guys are.
But the way that I see it is, yeah, I mean, I'm being cautious,
not trying to put on any leverage or anything,
not trying to put on any margin, but mostly just buying shares.
Wolfie, what was your day like in the market?
Good.
We had a space on Friday and we talked about,
I asked the question what the pain trade would be we had a lot of like people that are regulars here and some other
people that are regulars in other spaces that you know on the back of the friday cell thought
the pain trade would be higher um to reload and i kind of took the other side of that i thought
the pain trade would be lower i think you and i took the other side of that. I thought the paint trade would be lower. I think you and I took the other side of that convincingly.
The other side of that would have been, in my opinion, back then
and still stay the same. Gap down
to that undercut of the recent lows and then
hold it and get that end of quarter, end of month,
beginning quarter, beginning month, repositioning, rally, whatever word you want to use there.
Turned out that kind of is how it played out.
I'm kind of cautious about trying to see because, you know, I'm just going to stay with the logic I, you know, I had, I don't,
I don't like to have just price dictate my opinion. So my opinion was, and still is until
something materially changes that I don't, I don't think this is, uh, that anything's really
changed. Right. So I think that we are in an elevated fixed scenario. I think we're in a positioning, let's use the word kerfuffle here.
I think that we oscillate between ranges.
At the beginning of the year, we had the goalposts between all-time high and 5,800, I believe. And as soon as that 5800 cracked,
you had a window down to the recent lows that we had.
And so then you just have to reallocate your goalposts, remove your goalposts down.
So now overhead is about 5800, give or take.
And then our downside is 55.
So now we're in between this range.
So we got to effectively that 200 day 57 80 50 100 level
around there on the s&p and then it stalls undercut the lows today but you know given where we were
just a few days prior to that and where we are today it doesn't you know outside once you get
those situations outside of an exogenous event where you have some sort of catalyst behind it, it doesn't really create follow through for dislocation. on monday and i primarily trade options i try to find stuff that's liquid i try to find stuff that
um is up against important levels and and stuff that i think has been beaten up so
the two that i the two that i went for were avago and um microsoft traded microsoft basically
against that 365 level um i bought weeklies. I don't think that this,
because I don't think that this move
really is indicative of anything
materially to change.
I think that we still have to get
through the hurdle of April 2nd.
I think that beyond April 2nd,
and this is a conversation that we've had,
you know, on and offline,
I think April's a very, it gives you,
it gives the setup for April gives a little bit of everything for everyone.
Right. So first and foremost, most of the time,
first and foremost,
this has been the worst monthly decline since September 22nd.
And then march being down
this much is usually it's like a rare event um down more than three percent just happened seven
other times since world war ii um and then when that happened you know all seven times, um, that we had that happen. April, April closed green on average,
6% afterwards. Right. So we have a setup for bulls, um, that, that gives you like, oh, this
is like, you know, when they sell the first quarter, they usually get a balance early on
the second, right. Um, the one outlier was the.com 2001 year. Um, but,
you know, we have a new paradigm, if you will, with this tariff stuff. And I don't, I really
don't think that, you know, unless everybody just kind of folds their cards, cause they all just
kind of hopefully come to this understanding that this is just bad for everyone. I don't think that people are still discounting that risk adequately because I think that to some extent the United States is overplaying their hand.
And, you know, you see headlines on a some sort of group retaliation on tariff.
And then in conjunction with that, an overhang that is something that who knows if this could kick down again.
But you have the TikTok deal contingentent ban thing that's five days away from
now too so i think when you when i say these things i'm not saying them because i'm like oh
the sky is falling sky is falling sky is falling i'm just saying that on friday for me i thought
got a gap down push down and then push back up into the close would be like the biggest pain trade. I think that's what we're seeing.
And of course, obviously, you know,
you get a small spark or short cover rally or something like that.
Pain trade can create a longer trade,
but I think you need to have some of these actual building blocks,
whether it be on a tariff front, whether it be on an alliance front,
whether it be on an earnings front, whatever, that kind of like follow through on these things.
And then the last thing that I'll mention is from a Fed perspective, generally, like
the last couple of months, we've had these scenarios where you kind of have the OPEX and the Fed kind of create this like pent up aggression
and hedging capital that then kind of gets relieved.
Well, this month we don't have a Fed meeting.
So it could go either way, right?
So if the administration decides they want to kick stuff down the line,
then you've got this month long window where like a lot of
the risk gets kind of priced in until you get to these next, these next, um, goalpost
dates.
And if it doesn't get kicked down the line, then you kind of have this like month long
window where, you know, there's not really like a fed thing to worry about where they
can kind of jawbone or anything like that.
And then it's just kind of like no man's name.
So for me, like I said, it's like I'm trying to focus on positioning
and paying trades and how far, how fast we've come.
And then in addition to that, whatever the actual fundamental case is,
for stock-specific stuff, I try to look for stocks that get sold off or are at critical levels
and after significant drawdowns in a short period of time for mean reversion setups to the long side.
I barbell it with value on one side and then momentum and tech and stuff on the other.
So from a value perspective, those are the ones that are leading, kind of get the yield
premium built into some of those trades. Take a look at utilities making all-time highs, 52-week
highs today. Take a look at some of these like Procter Gamble, no, excuse me, Philip Morris,
Altria, 52-week highs today. Some of these names are just like offer yield, offer some protection.
52-week highs today. Some of these
names are just like offer yield, offer some
protection. And then on the other side, like I said,
I said, Avago down 18%
in like five days off of
basically nothing. Just broke its 200-day
kept falling. Came down to an important level.
It's got a mean reversion
set up. I'm not particularly saying I'm
looking forward to go back to where it was.
Just looking to clip stuff.
Microsoft, the other one,
caught 100 on on
on weeklies just because i thought it was like dislocated give a good shot um that's pretty much
how i'm i'm trading so things change after april 2nd reevaluate but i don't really think anything's
materially changed until we take that 5800 level beautifully beautifully said david did we get you back uh i know you had to step away for a second
but if we got you back we'd love to get some of your thoughts around the market david's working
on his top five oscars yeah you guys didn't mention you're too funny you guys didn't mention
oscar from the office and that was upsetting to him
look i'm gonna keep with uh oscar peterson one of the greatest treasures that canada was able
to produce with um i i would agree with a lot of what who is mentioning i think like after we see
what happens after april 2nd and liberation days and the actual idea of tariffs continue
and or let's say the the volatility that tariffs play we're still in a fairly succinct market in
that respect where the volatility is extraordinarily hard to price're still in a fairly succinct market in that respect,
where the volatility is extraordinarily hard to price in. Trump remains an outlier. Now,
to keep this point succinct, and I know Wolfie has heard this before, but I'm now paying more
attention to a bear steepening translating into a bear flattening. Currently, we're in a bear
steepening environment when it comes to yields. And it's important to note because on a historical basis, once we actually run a regression on that
bear steepening, in the middle of the bear steepening, we see S&P performance actually
increase. And so by virtue, it doesn't necessarily signal any forms of weakness within equities. And
most people would interpret bear steepenings as this
potential compression for S&P performance, right, or just equity performance. What really happens is
when bear flattenings occur, that's where we see a decline in positive returns from the S&P.
Now, if we do see the current yield environment translate into a bear flattening, that's where I
think we can actually posit a slight, let's say,
risk-off environment because of increased worries and expectations for future growth has now
revised itself dramatically where markets are going to interpret that as a form of risk-off.
And essentially, we can see some outflows via equity markets. Currently, if we were to just
base ourselves off that trend, historically,
we are in a bear flattening. So that means we still have a positive output for the S&P.
I caveat that point with the outlier that Wolfie was mentioning. When we take Trump into the
equation, that variable translates into a chaos agent, if you will, quote unquote, sorry to be
slightly repetitive in that respect, because I'm sure many people have said that Trump is a chaos agent, if you will, quote unquote, sorry to be slightly repetitive in that
respect, because I'm sure many people has said that Trump is a chaos agent. But long story short,
quote unquote, it's still very hard to actually appropriately price that in. And so whether this
time period is going to be one of the outliers that bear flattenings don't necessarily equate to
positive returns out of the SNP is to be determined. But I am very much watching the yield environment.
And I think that for a forward indicator, it's something that one needs to pay attention to,
because usually these environments tend to be this leading indicator and not this lagging indicator for market performance.
I'm going to leave it there, Stock.
Wait, can I just one piece of language? So I think we can change chaos agent to confusion
agent. And I think you can have the same effect without like the political rebuttals that people
will usually have with that. And I just think that's like, if you operate from
that perspective of not like we're in a, you operate from the perspective of we're not in a
situation where we have uncertainty, we have confusion, then I think it, ironically, it creates
a little bit more clarity with how you start to map things. Because again, for me, the difference is when you have uncertainty, I have a variable result.
It's a binary outcome.
I can have a couple of binary outcomes.
But with confusion, each binary outcome
can create a new set of binary risks.
So that's kind of like how I'd map it.
So I wanted to say confusion instead of chaos
because I think sometimes when we say chaos,
especially on this platform, people start to align politically with the comment.
And I don't think that's what you're going for, what we're going for here in general.
Correct, Lafie. I was trying.
I know you're not. I'm just I'm I'm saying it.
That's how I'm saying it from for me. That's how I word it. I know exactly what you're saying. I, most, I'd say 90% of people here would understand the commentary, but I like the term confusion agent more than chaos, because I don't think, I don't want to go down that path.
yeah yeah yeah and i i just want to reiterate that that point like what what you highlighted
that point was was bipartisan it was non-politically inclined it's just we see the
reaction via the markets and that's what it does and i i would agree i'm going to
rephrase it and be a confusion agent in that respect well said wolfie
i think we've heard from everybody but StockSniper
I know you were busy a while ago as well
so if you're around, we'd love to get some of your thoughts
Yeah, honestly
I don't have as many today as I normally do
We're coming into earnings season
This week is probably the
lowest amount of earnings I've ever seen
Literally only three names
were reporting today, last Friday was the first
Friday in quite a while where we didn't have a single first day in the market in general where
we didn't have a single name reporting earnings but the next earning season's coming right around
the corner it's coming up um personally for me you know we're in a period of uncertainty
i've been buying stocks uh maybe two three weeks ago uh deployed a decent amount of capital and
again you know it's not far from where we are right now, where I bought all these previous stocks, you know, and you know, in this
period of uncertainty, there is plenty of trading opportunity, lots and lots of trading opportunity,
especially when we get into one of these ranges, and the market kind of just bounces back and forth.
Some of my favorite markets to trade, to be honest. Assuming the volumes there and all the criterias
are there for me. Absolutely love price action like this for trading. But as far as it goes for
investing, just like I said, I bought some stock not too long ago. I'm keeping some money on the
sidelines. And again, I want everyone to understand my perspective before I get too far into it.
I've been buying stock for quite a while. I'm not planning to sell stock anytime soon. I'm just trying to build wealth from, you know, rolling
profits from trades into common stock. And, you know, if we fall down another five to 10%, I likely
will buy more stock and, you know, I'll likely buy it all the way down. But in a period of
uncertainty right now, you know, considering I already have purchased stock for most of the
names that I like at a similar average to where we currently are.
You know, I don't really see much reason or need or desire really to, you know, deploy more capital right now.
I think that there will be a lot of information coming out soon.
And also, like I said, you know, we're coming up on earnings season.
I personally really like earnings season, you know, and that's where I like to make a lot of my decisions on what I'm doing,
revolving around earnings and based on how things companies are doing, um, before going
into them and after, but, um, for right now I'm just holding onto stock. And if we continue to
sell down, I'm going to continue to buy more stock. And, you know, again, I, I really couldn't
tell you if we're going to trade higher or lower. Um, I really don't think anybody can, I think,
you know, this entire, uh, tariff sell-off let's just
call it um or pullback um is totally speculation there hasn't really been a single tariff passed
yet and i know i've been saying this over and over again but we don't really know what's going
to actually happen and what's not and we're all just speculating and again we've seen all kinds
of projections about what kind of revenue impacts these tariffs would have. You're right. And, you know, some of these could be terrible to some companies and detrimental even to some.
But we just have a lot of mixed information. And, you know, Trump is urging people not to buy cars
right now to avoid tariffs. At the same time, you know, we have automobile tariffs possible coming
in. That would be a pretty big blow for a lot of the automobile makers but again
like we really don't know i mean in my opinion i think a lot of it is negotiation tactics
and you know we're kind of just studying and looking into the politics and the political
side of things but um you know i really think everything is speculation and i'm gonna wait
till we have some more information and to see actual things set in stone and coming out
but that's pretty much how i'm seeing the market and what I'm doing in this current market.
Yeah, I kind of let off the space today
with one of the comments you made there.
The earnings season is not that far away.
And so just painting the picture coming ahead here.
Obviously, we know what we've done
from a technical standpoint.
We know that Wednesday, April the 2nd,
which tomorrow is April Fool's Day. So I'll just give some of you more gullible people a heads up. So wake that Wednesday, April the 2nd, which tomorrow is April Fool's Day,
so I'll just give some of you more gullible people a heads up. So wake up with your guard
up tomorrow for anything, maybe not market related, but just in general, there's a free
handout for you today. If you took nothing else away from this space, there's that freebie.
But April 2nd, Trump said he's going to be announcing those from that Rose Garden event
on Wednesday.
Then we'll get the jobs report on Friday.
And we'll also have Jerome Powell speaking just after that on Friday morning.
So we'll get all kinds of commentary.
There's about six Fed speakers, I think, coming up from Wednesday through Friday as well.
And then earnings season, as I was mentioning there, the big banks kick us right back off next Friday morning.
I should say.
JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley, Wells Fargo, all on April 11th. That's just next Friday, believe it or not.
We're almost right back into earnings season.
So it'll definitely be interesting as all this news comes out, as we get this tariff
picture painted a little bit.
Do people actually believe it?
I know that's been the
subject of a couple discussions that we've been having. Do we have a boy cried wolf scenario
where Trump has said multiple things and then Bessent and the rest of them have maybe walked
some of those things back? Do we get the final news and then say, okay, well, is this the final
news or is this for the next two weeks or the next month? So that will be interesting to see what the market reaction will be throughout this
week. And then as the CEOs jump up on their earnings calls later this month and they basically
are reacting in real time to these tariffs, we'll see if anything comes out of that. So it'll be
interesting to watch. Since we don't have Evan or Stock Talk today, first thing I'll do here, and we won't go
to full time today, obviously.
First thing I'll do is I'll just take a quick look.
I know Evan was watching that SpaceX launch in person with Stock Talk and Gov over, was
it off the Houston area down there off the Gulf of America, I guess I should
properly call it that. And that's about all I've really seen. Today didn't have a whole lot of news
stories that I noticed throughout the day. I know that Alexa Plus launched its early access,
that's Amazon, obviously the AI powered Amazon. That was about the only thing that really caught my attention today.
As far as the news goes,
there was a mention a little bit earlier
of some of the analysts coming out
with a little bit of their price target coming down.
But either way, that's about all I have today.
So if anybody up here on stage
has any final comments or final thoughts
or another topic that they want to hit,
we can do that.
If not, we'll go ahead and get into wrap ups.
Logical, anything else on your mind today?
Other than obviously that it will be interesting to watch that,
that real estate play out. I like your thesis there,
but anything else on your mind today as we get ready to wrap up?
I mean, I thought it was a pretty good day,
but obviously you don't know right now if it's end of month shenanigans.
So just stay on your toes.
But, you know, I did cover some shorts today.
I did add some longs today.
So I'm way more net long today, way more.
I do think that, you know, you're seeing a lot of good prices.
I'm just, I feel like completely violated today my my
portfolio got crushed today uh i just feel like i got hit with a perfect storm of like everything i
owned got destroyed even though like i had like 50 60 percent shorts short exposure like coming into today i was very like not net long but like all of my longs got
destroyed uh that you know the fba commissioner resignation i mean if you look at the xbi
i'm really hoping that that was a capitulation day today uh for biotechs you know i that sector is
decimated um so that that was tough uh especially because had 50% of my portfolio in biotechs on the long
side.
And then, yeah, I mean, the rocket thing, that was another hit.
And then the Columbia Bank, another huge hit from the ex-dividend stuff.
So yeah, it was just like a perfect storm that crushed me on the long side, which is,
you know, this is a tough day for me because I've been doing pretty well. And I thought I was positioned very well to take advantage of a day like today. But
even when, you know, I was not very long into the day and I was had a good amount of shorts to
protect myself, my longs I had specific had like company specific things or sector specific things
that just crushed the long. So, I mean, even when you
feel that you're positioned perfectly and everything should work out great, like there's
just some things you can't like take into account, like, you know, like rocket companies making a
second acquisition in a month. I mean, like this or like the FDA commissioner getting, you know,
resigning Friday night after markets closed.
You're just sitting there all weekend like, oh yeah,
I'm so screwed Monday morning. You know,
there's only so much you can do. Right. So tough day. I don't know.
That's all I'll say is like, you could only,
you could prepare yourself for the best,
but sometimes even preparation gets screwed.
Yeah. To that point. I mean, wolfie mentioned this a little bit earlier we were talking on friday and the gap down uh sunday night
when the futures opened and then getting long to kind of come back and fill that gap was essentially
my game plan going into the day it played out early in the day and then i sat around did a whole
lot of nothing the last four to five hours uh watched some charts looked at some other stuff uh did some back
testing stuff and just took advantage of my time but stayed away from stayed away from everything
because the the plan uh plan i had played out and then yeah after that we'll see uh we'll see what
i just logical to your point there i just there's so much information that we are going to receive.
You just wonder how much people are really going to stick their necks out either way.
You mentioned today was the end of, we did have a large MOC imbalance to the buy side
because of the last day of the quarter.
It's very typical.
It was very large numbers over there.
So you kind of saw that end of day, a little push squeeze up at the top, but tomorrow's another new day.
And honestly,
all we've done is come back to where we broke down from at the close
Friday.
Yep.
Yeah.
Tomorrow's section will be very telling, honestly,
like if I'm going to be back to defensive or I'm hoping we can at least
like,
I hope we can get at least some follow through to the upside before having
to reload shorts and
get defensive but yeah i mean you got to take this market day by day for sure without getting
too aggressive one side or the other i'm almost even hour by hour at this point i could see
because i can see a scenario where we push push up a little bit higher we hit a high area of value
and the shorts come right back in um but i could see also the bulls looking at today going, okay, well,
we maybe got some divergence, you know, a lower low,
but we're popping back up and reclaiming.
So I could see multiple arguments for me when it's not clear,
I can just sit down and wait it out.
And that's what I'm doing in general too, on the big picture of everything.
Wolfie, any final thoughts, comments, anything for you?
Let's play devil's advocate.
Let's play devil's advocate. Play the again what's what's the pain trade pain trade would be there's a couple of them but one of them i think would be interesting is we get a you know we get through tuesday or
or wednesday whatever day you want to choose take take your pick Wednesday, get through the Rose Garden, get through everything.
Everything's perfectly fine. Everything seems like, oh, wow, this is not as bad as it seems.
Get to Friday, get a shit jobs number and then, you know, trap people the other way.
Right. So, again, in my opinion, until we get some sort of like consistent clarity, I don't think you need.
It's not a so the main thing that I think that we're going up against is it's not one item.
It's not one actionable headline.
It's not even two actionable headlines.
You have, you know, while we were talking, state of Texas uh, stock DJT will be the first stock on their stock exchange. Um,
logical spoke to, you know, who knew,
who would have known that the FDA chairman headline would have happened.
Like we're, we're kind of teetering on a,
you know, a, a, I don't, I'm not, I'm not making an accusation, but we're kind of like
on a fringe of people behaving in a way where it's borderline crony capitalism.
And the more and more situations that we have like that, the more, you know, distrust there
could be in markets.
I'm not even talking about political stuff.
And so I say that as a precursor to a conversation that we've had, where what happens
when administration needs rates to come down, Fed tells us this is our dual mandate, this is how we
get rates down. Dual mandate says rates can't come down, right? We have like a window between
now and May 2026 when Powell's terms up.
Like what kind of Powell are we going to get during that period?
Because I do think that the more people bend the knee and kiss the ring, the more that becomes status quo, the more not doing it will appear to be problematic more than it should be.
will appear to be problematic more than it should be.
And so if we have a quote-unquote autonomous Fed
and the data is not supportive of what an administration wants
and they want to take the stand of we're going to be data dependent,
I do think that that will create a new layer of uncertainty,
for lack of a better term.
My preferred mechanism here is confusion.
And then that kind of like will obfuscate reality moving forward. Outside of that,
if you are a Fortune 500 company and you have this opportunity right now to kind of reset
expectations for the next 12 to 18 months or reset the bar or reset guidance or, you know,
have a crappy quarter and blame it on tariffs or do whatever. Now's the opportunity you're
probably going to have. So I think it's not just a one quarter thing. We get through April and it's
good because of like historical representation comes out to be the same way. I think you have to start mapping out some of these broader things,
because I think for the first time,
I've been doing this for about 20 years for the first time for me,
outside of like a couple of moments in 2018,
where Powell like folded and did what Trump was barking on Twitter for him to
folded and did what Trump was barking on Twitter for him to do, we're kind of having this
weaving of public policy and markets more so than any time I've seen it.
And maybe I'm being short-sighted and forgetting things.
I don't know.
But for me, that's how it feels.
So we have to start mapping these things out and then just thinking basically tit for tat on the back of it.
So when I see a headline today, for example, again, China, South Korea and Japan are planning, you know, what kind of reciprocity they could have on a tariff basis collectively.
And collectively, that's not something that we've seen 10, 15 years ago.
That's not something that we've seen 10, 15 years ago.
You know, our allies talking to our quote unquote enemies about tariff reciprocity is not something that.
So we're like in this new paradigm.
So when I say all that to just say we're going to have to start mapping out things that you don't really consider.
For me, that says elevated VIX, flight to quality, flight to yield on one side and then on the other tactical
and levels and things like that so that's that's basically the gist of it
you know one piece that i kind of left out of the the track that we're on for the next
couple weeks is we'll get those tariffs out but then we have to get the basically responses from all
these countries that it affects right so i mean from wednesday into thursday and to the weekend
that's another piece of the of the puzzle that i didn't even mention there that you you brought
up briefly there as well so that's the more important piece in my opinion that's the caveat
because because so again i mentioned the tiktok thing earlier right like you have this tiktok headline
that like everybody just kind of forgot about but like what like i said this to you personally i
don't think i said it like to anybody else on here but like what happens with if china's just like
hey no we're not going to do the tiktok thing actually kick rocks and actually here's what
we've responded with your allies right so that that's just like a new can of worms that would potentially happen i'm hopefully we don't get that hopefully we get
like some more kicking of the can you know but it's a it's a possibility and so in a possibility
like that you have to think elevated vix the pain trade remains elevated vix no real capitulation
uh one headline risk to the next um without having in the past we'd have these wall
of worry moments so we'd climb it and we'd accelerate like the pain trade in my opinion
is just not you you climb the wall of worry but you don't get like the pimple squeeze right you're
just kind of like okay now what's the next worry? So just something to think about.
David, any thoughts to add to the mix here before we close out?
I just wanted some clarification with you. So your consensus is that we might see,
and correct me if I'm wrong here, that we might see a potentiality where Powell's going to capitulate to Trump's desire? No, I'm saying that right now, the market doesn't have to worry about the Fed has to
cut rates, but the Fed's telling you we can't cut rates.
And I think that if we keep pressing, like the problem with tariffs isn't that we put
tariffs on somebody.
The problem with tariffs is once we do it,
that somebody or some other nation that aligns with that somebody
wants to reciprocally tariff us.
And you can get away with it
if we've got tariffs on,
I don't remember his last name,
but your Oscars jazz records,
if Canada's tariffing us on those,
we can get away with it, right?
But if we start seeing tariffs from countries like China and Japan in conjunction, which
is not something that we'd ever expect, that's a new wrinkle.
And so if we start to see that, then inevitably, this inflation thing that we're trying to
get under control, you're going to have some creep.
And we have inflation creep that we're trying to get under control, you're going to have some creep. We have inflation creep.
The Fed can't really cut.
And, you know, we might have elevated – we might have more elevated fears.
We might have more elevated rates.
We might have more elevated tension between the administration who signals to the Fed, we need rates down,
and the Fed that's like, hey, we can't actually do that without violating our dual mandate that
we've been telling people. So I don't think that these things are here yet. I think we're a ways
away. But I do potentially see a second or third or fourth order domino fall where those things become realities, right, where we tariff China or we tariff Japan and in retaliation, China tariffs us.
And China says, hey, Europe, we can give you a discount on on this excess product that was supposed to go to the US as long as you do X, Y, Z. And now there's just like this battle in public.
And on the back of that,
inflation kind of creeps up a little bit here.
Nothing crazy, but just enough to keep the Fed at bay.
And I really do think we can see that.
And then you have a public,
not even new headline to worry about.
Powell versus Trump or Fed versus the administration.
And then there's a new talk of like,
why does the Fed exist and all that crap, right?
We're not there yet.
I don't think we're close yet,
but it's something second, third, fourth order to think about.
Yeah, and I think the most salient point
behind what you were mentioning is like,
evidently there are two conclusions
that are being drawn right now.
And again, I'm going to quote the great pal here.
I'm data dependent on this. I don't have, I'm going to quote the great pal here. I'm data dependent on this. I
don't have, I'm impartial to these ideas, but they are increasing within the current conversation.
One, a stagnationary fear, and then two, an actual recessionary fear. And it's to be determined
whether we're going to be walking into those fronts. But again, if we go with, let's say,
worst case scenarios, there's an increasing probability for both to manifest themselves, right? One, we have lack of real wage growth,
two, we'll have lack of employment, and then three, we'll have inflationary spirals,
all concluding to one, potentially stagnation, then leading into recessionary pressures.
Now, that's to be determined. I'm not trying to put an or fear monger here, but those are things that are very likely and or more likely now in this circumstance to manifest themselves, especially if we continue to see the employment backdrop look weaker and weaker.
It's now just to see if there's going to be an increase in unemployment over the next quarter.
And from there, that's going to give a very strong situation for Powell to say,
I'm going to be continuously restrictive in the current environment if we don't see employment data actually weaken itself.
If we do see employment data weaken, then there's going to be an argument where Powell could actually say,
I'm less restrictive because if I'm too restrictive, then I'm hemorrhaging the economy, and essentially,
it's going to create an unhealthy balance within the actual economy. And so, by virtue,
Powell doesn't want to do that. If we stagnate in this current range, and Powell doesn't see
any forms of weakness, obviously, then we can conclude we're going to be more restrictive.
It's to be determined, obviously, the final point conclude we're going to be more restrictive. It's to be determined.
Obviously, the final point here, and this is academically debated, whether tariffs have inflationary pressures on a long term or not. Short term, evidently, there's going to be a
short inflationary brux on specifically goods being imported. And then from there, on a long
term, it's going to be determinative if we're going to see
a stickiness, quote unquote, of that inflation. And that's still like very much data dependent,
right? We need to see it manifest itself within the market to be able to actually formulate an
opinion there. I did pull up the FedWatch tool earlier today just out of curiosity, which I laugh at when I say this because who knows what this looks like a week from now, right?
If not, it could be drastically different depending on all the news that we get the rest of this week and the jobs report.
depending on all the news that we get the rest of this week and the jobs report.
But as of now, the May 7th Fed meeting, which is the next one on the docket,
it's 87.6% probability that they have priced in that we do not get any rate changes.
And then that goes to just a 26% chance that we hold where we're at going into the June 18th meeting. The highest probability
is 65.2% over on a 25 basis point cut. So that part is interesting. I know we have Kevin Green
joining us up here. So let me get him up here on stage. What's up, Kevin Green? How are you today?
May take a second as he's connecting there kevin we got you give it just a second for kevin just a quick reminder if anybody is looking for stock talk
evan or or gav which gav's been super busy lately, but they are watching SpaceX right now.
So I know actually I pulled it up a while ago just to watch.
I always like watching that take off.
So I'm holding down the fort for the crew.
And of course, we have a great group of speakers that have been up here with some nice back and forth.
So it's been actually a nice conversation.
I didn't even know if we would make it this long today.
But KG, do we got you now?
Yeah.
Yeah.
Sorry about that.
Oh, you're all good.
What you got for us today?
I was just curious.
First off, let me ask you, did you see any flow with everybody's, of course, talking about JP Morgan color, which we.
It was resistance and then it reclaimed, got back above that, uh, that level on SPX, uh, before, uh, before
the close, I didn't know if you tracked that out much and then, uh, anything else you saw
out there today.
Yeah, uh, definitely track that.
I think, uh, the, the trades hit the tape at two 28 Eastern time, but, um, you have
to just kind of be mindful, right?
Um, those trades are going to be done beforehand
and then they're reported to the tape at that time. So you kind of go back on your chart and
look about maybe 15 minutes before 228, right? So like basically around two o'clock, 205-ish,
you saw it spike to the upside. It was like 20 points 30 points or it was pretty
much like a 15 point that turned into around a 30 to 40 point spike that was probably in my opinion
in relation to that i probably got the call you know started doing the the trade here so
uh new strikes uh i don't know you guys go over the New Strikes? Maybe not.
Okay, so New Strikes sold the 5880 calls, bought the 5290 puts,
sold the 4460 puts for June 30th expiration.
Once again, that's the 5580 calls to the upside that they sold,
bought the 5290 puts, sold the 4460 puts.
So they sell the upside call.
They buy a put spread to the downside here, which is actually kind of interesting because, you know, seems like that short call is a little bit close.
But we'll see how this all kind of pans out.
I saw the block trade for around 41,000
contracts. When you look at the tape, it's going to sound like it's reversed. And that's because
you're looking at the order tape or that book that the actual dealer was able to fill on their end.
So you don't see the JP Morgan side of it, you see the dealer side. So if you look at the tape,
it'll show a buy of that call. It'll show a of that uh closer to at the money puts and it'll show a buy of the out of the money
the super out of the money put but that's once again that's that's dealer side actually painting
or printing that on the tape so that was actually very interesting um i will say discount today uh
i hate being that guy maybe you guys have already said that. I would just
discount everything for today. And it's very hard to do because we talked about, you know,
there's this trend line that held and we got a hammer on there. I think it's a hammer. I still
got to look. I haven't looked at the chart, but I would just discount it. There's a lot of
mechanical things that were kind of going on. There's quarterly rebalancing. It's not everything rebalancing, right? SPX and things of that
nature, that stuff rebalances third week of March. But you do have certain index funds,
as well as passive funds that do need to rebalance their portfolios. I think that's
another reason why you saw some of this massive strength today. I mean, you're looking at
consumer staples ripping to the upside.
Let's just say it like this. People hate breath in the market. Breath was actually very,
very strong today. And you got to admit that financials, which actually appears a pretty decent weight, financials, staples, materials. I'm going to discount the energy side for now
because the energy sector has been just doing good regardless.
Utilities and even healthcare, which healthcare from a chart standpoint looks a little bit sketchy,
but I do believe that this is more of a mechanical move, both of the downside that we saw earlier
this morning, that flush, as well as that recovery to the upside, hitting that 5620 level,
kind of broke through that,
and then kind of, you know, for the most part, closed, what, eight points away from that.
But I think, once again, I say it's more mechanical. Don't get faked out. If you want
to put dollars to work, it's not a recommendation, but I'll go very small, incremental. Actually,
see if this price action does hold, Because if you didn't know this was
the month of quarter end and you just looked at the chart, I would say, hell yeah, this is actually
a pretty decent day when you're looking at it technically. But knowing what actually did happen
today, the collar position, the roles that were taking place, all of this stuff, the repositioning
from passive funds, I would just say discount it. And here's the other reason why I say that.
What happened with 10-year yields today? Did they go higher or did they go lower? They went lower
today. Why would yields continue to go lower if something materially changed with the sentiment
or outlook regarding tariffs or anything for that matter, right? Soft data being very soft, hard data not
really reflecting soft data and their consumer sentiment, things of that nature. None of that
changed today. What happened to the dollar? Dollar pretty much flat. If we had one of the,
I'm sorry, let me just say this. March quarterly, pretty much every quarterly,
but the March quarterly is very unique. If you look at the intraday swings over the last 20 years,
March quarterly expiration today is actually one of the more volatile intraday moves that we
usually see all year. This one, we might see another one being matched in December, and that
just depends if we have very low volume. But I want to put that kind of on your radar there because we had a very wide range. But VIX nominally was actually still up from Friday to today.
VIX actually settled in at a higher price level with stocks being up. VIX up, stocks up. I don't
like that. Now, did it drop, what, three points on an intraday basis? Yeah. But the intraday move
really felt like it should have dropped six, seven, eight points today.
And that just didn't happen. Now, that could happen tomorrow. That could happen the next day.
I say, that's where it really matters. Today, yields didn't make a move.
If we had full on risk on, we're discounting everything. Everything's OK.
We're fully pricing in tariff policy risk. We're done with that.
And now the market's in a perfect equilibrium. Yields would
have moved higher. Yields would have moved higher. Equities would have moved higher, right? Risk on
sentiment, sell out of treasuries, get into equities. That would have been the trade.
Dollar would have actually made another little move to the upside. It's been upside now when
it comes to dollar getting stronger, equities getting stronger, which is counterintuitive,
but that's because we have this terror policy risk. So I'm not trying to dampen on anybody's parade.
I like the candle. I like the hammer today. But I would just say, just given the events that we
had today, it's more mechanical in nature. And if we did not have anything else in the fixed income space, in the forex currency market space to complement today's move, both upside and downside, right?
Then I think that there's still some disjointed, there's still a break within correlations.
And that's pretty much what I'm leaving it at.
I'll kick it back.
I'll talk for way too long.
But that's my sentiment on it.
I like the candle, though.
Not going to lie.
I like the candle.
If you didn't look under the hood, you would think that something else happened today.
And if you look under the hood, you would say, okay, this is just is what it is.
And you can look at the last quarterly.
December, we had the same.
September last year, had the same.
It's just something that just happens.
I guess that's going to be my question back to you is how much stock do you
put into this? What all do you look at under the hood? So like, you know,
if I look at ADD, ADD took forever,
got back above the zero line on advanced declanners,
Valdi, which is, you know, up versus down.
That was up pretty much the entire day. And I look over at the futures.
I know you trade futures as well,
and I see slightly red cumulative Delta across the board,
which is interesting to me that that didn't make it back into the green today.
Yeah. Well, a couple of things. So I trade off the 15 minute.
So for those that do intraday trading and they're like, I do these levels and find options, flows and things of that nature. Right. But I also kind of marry them or compliment them with fun or the technicals. And the technical chart for me is the 15 minute chart. And so the 15 minute E-mini S&P 500 chart and you put your 20, 50 and your 200, or you can use the 210. The 210 is actually
the clear, real level. And actually, people talk about the 200-day moving average. It's actually
the 210-day moving average is actually the one that started out in the futures complex of like,
hey, this one's actually key for whatever reason, right? So put those on the 15. And if you have one of those charts up, just look at it. And right
now, as we're talking, right, it's 243 mountain time right now. We're hitting the 200 period
moving average on the 15 and probably going to reject it overnight. Well, and I'm talking about intraday, right? Probably reject
it overnight. You're looking at your 20 period moving average as your area of support. If the
market breaks above that 200, that's bull on, that's risk on, but it's not a surprise that
we stopped right there at the 200 period moving average on E-mini S&P. And that aligned pretty
much with that 5620 level that I brought up and put on the chart earlier today.
You talked about $1 ADD, right?
Yes, that was actually, and that's where you saw the breadth actually expanding today.
We started to see a recovery.
But, Amp, if you look at that indicator, what also happened at the end of the day?
And this is one of those things that I say, look, I don't want to say like, you know, don't take this day into consideration at all.
I'm saying discount it. Right. Put a 60 percent delta on today.
And here's the reason why we got to what, 10 minutes, 20 minutes left to go, 15 minutes left to go.
We were sitting at three hundred and seventy five on the ADD. Right.
We're sitting at 375 on the ADD, right?
We dropped, we had 300 stocks that went from green to red in a matter of 15 minutes going into the close, right?
Which is a lot of stocks going into the close.
That's what I was watching, Kevin.
That's what I was confused.
And I was also, because obviously the end of the quarter, some of the rebalancing and stuff going out.
And I actually posed this question a little bit earlier.
I was like, okay, I was talking to some of my group and I said, okay, if you are, are you going to sell into the strength?
If you're still bearish in general on the market right now, if you're an institution or something, you get this rebalance with maybe it's pensions or whatever, buying and rebalancing out some of their portfolios, and you see some strength in
some of these names. Are you selling into that? And it kind of looks like they did.
A little bit, right? I mean, it still held up. It wasn't like we saw 1,000 stocks drop,
which would have been amazing. But we did see, I mean, going from 375 in a matter of 15 minutes
is a lot. So I think you just got to say,
look, there's new positioning here. What is also something we have to be mindful of?
There's active funds and then there's passive funds. Passive funds rebalance and they can't,
they don't have the discretion, right? They don't have the discretion of whatever their charter is,
whatever their mandate is,
they have to do that. So it doesn't matter. Active funds can't, right? Some pension funds
can make those adjustments, kind of just depends on what their benchmark is, if they have
a little bit more leeway compared to that benchmark, things like that. So once again,
there's a lot more that's on the institutional side that just happened today. And that's where I say, hey, you know, kind of discount a little bit.
Once again, though, I like the hammer, though. You can't discount the hammer too much.
So we got to see some follow through coming through here. I would have liked to see VIX
kind of crush a little bit more. I started seeing VIX actually inch up, kind of going into the close a little bit. Aggressive call buying activity kind of taking place once we started to
figure out, okay, like this is the quarterly ramp. And those that trade this, I'm not trying to talk
down to anybody that's listening because they also know this. We all knew that it was getting
quarterly today. We knew that it was going to be some fireworks. We were just looking for that
bottom low. And we had that low in the S&P 500. We hit it, came back, retested it like five minutes later, and then it was off to the races pretty much ever since.
And we had a little bit of a bull flag that took place, but then it continued to resolve itself.
And then you had, once again, that collar position kind of thrusted us another 30 points, 35 points to the upside.
I mean, it was kind of clear as day.
I was kind of looking around to say, okay,
like I don't want to buy here because I don't want to be the one that top ticks. So that made
it actually a little bit difficult today is kind of more of a scalp day, in my opinion, for me,
rather than just like, you know, go long and close your eyes and go. So once again, tomorrow,
we'll see how this goes, but it's defensive positioning still. There's still money that's being put to work for right now. And we'll see
what happens. But once again, I just want to highlight here. What happened to Treasuries?
Did Treasuries show risk on sentiment? No. Treasuries still went lower today. Okay. What
happened to the dollar? Pretty much didn't do much, right happened to vol vol came down but ball didn't crush
did vol didn't show a crush like you just had a two and a half percent intraday reversal
in this market right so there's a lot of things that still did not uh say add up so discounted
and then just continue incrementally i mean until we get a higher, let's say higher low, right? I think we
still have to kind of navigate these waters for now. One last addition to everything you just said,
that trend line that we have from basically 2024, and then we had, what was it like the August 5th
lows, the other lows, and then today's lows got kick-saved at the end.
So, you know, we'll see if it holds.
I'm in the camp until things materially change.
At some point here soon, we'll probably see it break.
But it did get saved today.
It was another thing.
I think you highlighted it on your tweets, Kevin.
We highlighted it in space last last week I know I tweeted it
as well so just wanted to share that as well
well
well anything else on your mind
Kevin we don't have stock talk
today so you know we have a little bit more time here.
Usually we get a solid 10, 11-minute rant out of Mr. Tariff Talk.
So missed having that today, of course.
I think they'll be back tomorrow on here, him and Evan both.
But, yeah, I don't know if there's anything else on your mind or anything else that you saw out there.
Yeah.
Yeah, I'll try to be quick with this.
I'm looking at copper right now.
It could continue to move to the upside,
but we did see kind of this shooting stars
kind of blow out candle.
We've had three down days after that,
sitting at around $5 here.
Copper is one of those commodities,
probably the only one that I know of that really does
triple top during cycles. And it seems like we're in that second phase of that cycle.
So I'm looking for actually a little bit of a pullback here. Let's see, first area, $4.50.
If it pulls back to around that $4, probably will consolidate again. And then I think that kind of sets you up for end of Q2, middle Q3,
potential optimism when it comes to China stimulus, kind of wrote that in this little
market outlook thing that I have on my page, if you guys want to kind of see it, where I kind of
drill down some of these commodity markets just in general. So that was an interesting one.
You got to be very careful that with that one if you're
not used to if you've never traded future traded futures before copper is not the product to start
with i will say that they do have a micro contract but that micro contract is still
juicy um if you actually do kind of like lever it up a little bit still a little juicy when it
comes to the uh the moves and and it's not as
like liquid as like an e-mini s p 500 so i got that uh natty gas had a pop above 420 today um
you know it still seems like it's a little bit overvalued we're going into we have started now
pretty much injection season so what that means is we are starting to refill natural gas storage inventory. And so we should actually see production increase. It should actually push
prices to the downside. We also have a situation where in Asia markets, if you look at the Japanese
benchmark of LNG, those prices are actually coming down as well. Starting to see a little
bit of slack in the market.
And if you're kind of looking at the European markets,
they're sitting at around 37% of natural gas inventory levels.
But if they don't get any major like Arctic blast over the next two to three weeks,
two to three weeks, they should be on the back end and start to ramp up their refilling of their
natural gas storage. So usually those will actually push prices down. So natural gas is still kind of
elevated compared to the fundamentals. If you go to a monthly chart, it is in a bull cycle right now
as well. So you got to be a little bit tactical with the trade um there's
actually a fair amount of natty traders that are my dms i actually enjoy it but um that's another
one that seems like it's a little bit expensive based on fundamentals but you got to be very
tactical with that trade because this is a product that can literally rip your face off but seasonally
we should actually see this thing come down.
I would actually say somewhat substantially.
I mean, you would probably see fair value at around three bucks.
That's not a recommendation, but just kind of given the trends that are out there.
Oil continues to move higher.
I talked about a couple of weeks ago, $70, kind of your first area of resistance.
Anything on top of that, it's a little bit icing on the cake.
Wrote an article this morning, just real brief, geopolitical risk premiums really kind of being underpriced.
I think it's kind of stepping in there right now, but I still think it's a little bit underpriced just based on the movements that we're seeing with these B2 self-bombers in the Indian Ocean. We got some refueling aircraft along at that Diego base. That's
something you just usually don't see. I mean, obviously, we've heard the rhetoric. Obviously,
we're kind of showing strength. And then obviously, what's happening within Yemen is another
show of strength or force, if you will. But this does look kind of eerily similar
for those that actually follow geopolitics or remember,
kind of eerily similar to Operation Iraqi Freedom
and kind of how we built up everything.
And then just one day it was like, all right, go time.
I don't think that, I hope that doesn't happen, right?
But it seems like it's underpriced right now.
I'm not saying like nuclear war is going to take out, you know, happen or anything like that.
But it seems like it's underpriced.
So I'll kind of continue to look at crude, maybe having a little bit more of a bull run, maybe 75, the next area of significant resistance there.
Heating oil or diesel diesel starting to get a little
bit of a premium. We're below the five-year average when it comes to inventory levels there.
There has been some slack in that market just structurally when you're looking at the freight
industry as a whole, and then also with competition with liquefied natural gas trucks in Japan and China,
it's been taking a little bit of market share. So that one also can be a pretty decent mover.
Once again, I would say if you've never traded futures, don't trade that one
on your own. And then the last thing I'm kind of looking at that no one really cares about
is going to be, I'm looking at grains over the next month.
We're going to keep an eye out on the weather.
We had a USDA plantings report here earlier today.
So that was kind of very interesting.
Grains right now just have not been able to catch a bid and rightfully so.
And if you do see an expansion of Russian access to the global markets,
once again, that'll increase supply.
That'll push prices of especially like soybeans and wheat to the downside.
Wheat has already kind of been like destroyed for the most part.
But you are seeing actually some drought conditions in southern Ohio,
as well as southern Illinois, that are actually seasonally abnormal
as far as soil moisture and things of that nature, which can make it actually very difficult
for that type of production in those areas, which are very key areas for us. So I'm keeping my eye
on the grains. And that's kind of what I got, man. I still say you got to be very tactical with it.
And that's how I look at it. I don't know what's going to happen I got, man. I still say you got to be very tactical with it. And that's how
I look at it. I don't know what's going to happen on April 2nd. It might also be a nothing burger.
It could be something substantial. Who knows? It could drag on past that. I think 90, I mean,
I'm 99% in the camp that it's going to continue to drag on. I think this is just the start of
something that's bigger rather than this being the last raw.
And I'm not sure how the market's going to take that uncertainty there.
So, yeah, that's what I got.
So I'll kick it back.
I appreciate you having me on and appreciate everybody else on the space here.
Yeah, absolutely.
Always great having you. You're a little bit little bit wilder man than i am on the
on the natty gas actually let me ask you one question this came up on my stream this morning
somebody was asking about copper um what is your what are your thoughts on copper right now do you
have you looked at that chart yeah i think i kind of briefly mentioned it i think it's it's a one
of those commodities that really does triple top so i think it's in the second phase of its bull cycle fuel. And so I would be actually very interested to see if it actually can advance from here.
I think it does pull back.
I kind of brought those levels up.
I'll bring them up again here.
But I think it does actually come back.
Look at your first area, about $4.50.
Next, basing out at around $4.
Obviously, there's been, for copper, you are seeing a lot of imports just really ramping up.
Actually, Chile's largest copper exporting company, mining company, which is actually the largest one in the world.
They had an interview on Friday and they said that they have actually diverted their copper deliveries from overseas,
going directly to the United States in order to get ahead of this,
because they feel like they can be able to backfill maybe some of the other existing orders that are out there.
And then they also plan on actually ramping up significantly this year, latter half of
this year, as well as in 2026, as far as copper supply.
And they're not the only ones that have said that.
So the bull move, I think it's just tariffs related and it could stay elevated.
It probably will stay elevated maybe.
But I get a little bit concerned because if you kind of listen to the boots on the ground, the executives, if you're looking at some of the inventory levels like in China or even at the COMEX, we have a lot of supply right now.
And so at some point, I think the market, those are actually
physical traders of the bigger institutions that trade this stuff on a daily basis. I think they
will also kind of start pricing again, like, hey, like supply is coming back online. It's not that
demand is ramping up that aggressively. And if we do have any type of meaningful slowdown here in
the United States, I think that once again, dampens the price of copper,
as well as maybe some other commodities that are out there. I always kind of preface this because
sometimes I see like ratio charts of like copper to gold, right? And it's kind of like, don't do
that. Because they're two different metals, right? Two different properties, two different
use cases. One is showing you risk-off sentiment and uncertainty about macroeconomic factors.
And the other one is a main input for industrial production and expansion and manufacturing.
So two different things. So just because you put a ratio chart of gold and copper and saying, hey, gold's been outperforming copper.
It's copper's time right now.
It's just not how it goes.
You could do that with silver for the most part, even though I still think that it might be a little bit overused on the silver front, the silver gold ratio.
There's some truth to that one.
But for copper, it's its own beast.
So I think I would not be surprised if we actually pull back uh if we push higher than i i think let me say it like this
because i always have to prep if we push higher i think we push higher because of news flow
and not because of actual fundamentals of the industry itself let's just say that uh
the industry itself. Let's just say that. So that's where I'm at when it comes to copper.
And then silver, I think there's probably enough FOMO in here from people to try to really push
this one higher. There's still a structural deficit when you're looking at silver. If you
add the industrial components, industrial demand, along with the ETF holdings, which is,
you know, some people
discount that and maybe rightfully so, right? But we are in a supply deficit when it comes to silver
and it has been a lagging trade. So that could be one that catches a little bit of steam.
I think you'll get more, I think you get more bang for your buck from the China story on silver
than you do from just the gold catch upup trade. The China story is going to
be really the big mover, not only for silver, but for copper, just because it's a catch-up trade for
gold. At some point, maybe, I think gold overvalued, and I've been completely wrong on that one.
Look, I'll call out my winners, your winners of my thoughts, and I'll call out my losers.
I thought, and i do still believe
that gold will correct here uh i thought it was going to be 30 50 and that didn't happen uh so
uh obviously i'm not on the right side for that one but today starts the first notice day well
no actually what was it friday uh so we'll get that data set today but we start having first notice day well no actually what was it Friday so we'll get that data set today but we start having first notice day for these you're seeing
some roles but I believe it's the April contract has first notice day starting
now the April contract let me get you the right information guys yeah I think
it's the April contract I want to get you the right info.
I know we're over.
Yeah, I do have to wrap this up and open up our stock picking.
So if you grab that real fast, we'll call it.
Yeah, it's going to be the May contract.
So the May contract has still a significant amount of open interest.
If we start seeing intent to deliver, basically the physical delivery of gold,
ramping
up like we saw in January, then that's where you get the additional price action. But if not,
then I think this is more managed money flows that are pushing price rather than institutional,
I want to say institutional bona fide hedgers and those that actually have physical exposure.
So I appreciate you and I'll kick it back. I'm the stock talk for today. No, don't let me not
say that. I'm the guy that just hugged the mic for 10 minutes. So I appreciate you.
No, you're good. Have a good one.
I appreciate everyone that tuned in today. I do have to close this out.
It will become a recording. Hey, we made the full two hours.
I didn't even know if we were going to be able to,
but thanks David Wolfie Kevin for coming in here in the second hour and holding
it down with me. And that's it. We'll be back tomorrow. Power hour.
See everybody then.
And check out the Wolf account right now.
I'm opening up stock picks for the week. Thank you.
