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STOCK MARKET TALK
Recorded: Sept. 8, 2025 Duration: 2:00:36Space Recording
Full Transcription
Thank you. Good afternoon, everyone.
Welcome into Stocks on Spaces with some stock market talk on this Monday afternoon.
It is September the 8th and power hour here in the markets.
And we've done a lot of nothing, I guess, overall today.
One interesting piece, we have green markets, green VIX, green gold, green oil.
The dollar is red, though, and some of the yields
are down a little bit. So you do have that piece. But overall, NASDAQ leading the way right now up
0.4%. The S&P is basically break even, slightly green on the day, spy up about a dollar. We're in
a 25-point range on the S&P itself. IWM has kind of been all over the place today. It rugged hard this morning. It's made a
nice recovery back green on the day with some of the different pieces going on, of course, over
there in the macro picture of things. And the Dow Jones is basically break even. I mentioned the
VIX a little bit earlier, up 0.4%, 0.5% here near the close. It was red a little bit earlier in the
morning and then picked up in
this back half of the day. Obviously, some of the big stories, and I'm sure our panel will hit on
some of the different ones, but Hood and Apple 11 in S&P inclusion on Friday, Robin Hood up 14.8%.
Right now, as I'm looking at it,Lovin also up 11% today on those inclusion announcements
from Friday afternoon. Nice little follow through in those stocks. Crypto is green. There's obviously
a big story around this OCTO ticker. 8co Holdings, I believe Dan Ives is involved. And then the BMNR
that has been spoke about many times on the spaces with tom lee took
a position in that as well which and that stock is just insane it's up four thousand percent in a
day a dollar 40 it was trading at on friday and uh it's in the 60s right now it was in size 83 at one
point today so insane uh story over there i know some people have been paying attention to BMNR as well
up 4.8% on that. And yeah, that's about all I have to get us started here. Kind of an interesting
day. There are some big events going on throughout the week. I do know that Evan and some of the crew
are out at Future Proof, so we'll see if he's able to stop by and hang out with us today. There's a
Robinhood event tomorrow. There's an Apple event tomorrow and some other things going on this week. Obviously some big data coming out
as well. Scott, Mr. Red Dog, how are you, sir? Happy Monday.
Happy Monday to you. Doing all right. Doing all right. How's everyone feeling on this? What are
we? September 8th? September the 8th. September. Yep. We got through the short week. We got through
Labor Day. Most people probably back at the desk, back at the office for the most part,
or heading their way back in this week.
And I'm curious, what have you been seeing out there in the markets?
Anything sticking out to you?
Any stories that you've been a part of?
What's going on in Red Dog World?
Well, I feel like, you know, every time we're on,
there's like a new flavor every week or two. week or two there's another trade that works another trade that doesn't work and it's it's
really good when that's happening you know when you have like a market of stocks instead of a
stock market so it feels like when the market is kind of consolidating in quiet like us like a day
like today with the spies, you can get individual action
that either gives follow through that shows you, you know, it's waking up, shows you that maybe
it's time to look over here, you know, et cetera, et cetera. It's like, I think two weeks ago,
I wasn't here last week. We were all talking about Apple, you know, and then Apple hit 240,
you know, so Apple was a great trade. And then this morning I actually got out of Apple because
I'm like, you know what, the event's tomorrow. They ran it into the event. They're probably going to
try and sell the event tomorrow. And then if they do try and sell the event tomorrow, because that's
what they do with Apple events, that's when I probably rebuy back some calls out a week or two.
So you've had to be either really tactical or kind of just really hands off. Whereas if you're
an investor in Apple for the past three, four, five years, they don't really care. And that's why we always go over that.
As far as, like you mentioned, Robinhood and Apple, this morning, people were asking me if
Robinhood is still viable, if they didn't come in with options, because a lot of my guys have
been trying to play options for it to get included, and a lot of them expired on Friday.
Some rolled them
out some didn't um I'm looking at the charter Robin Hood and it really looks like a nice gap
up right into this 115 117 area where in a few days of digestion I would think this Kenco again
it's going to have flows um it's been on the go-to list you know for a bunch of months as it
as it really fully changed um you know changed the complexion a while ago when it started to act special.
So it's been something really good.
You mentioned BMNR.
And what was that other nutty stock today?
I didn't actually trade it, but everyone was talking about it.
OCTO.
OCTO.
It's 8co Holdings is the actual company name.
Right.
The guys from the Alpha team are letting me know about it.
You know, to be honest, that kind of gets me a little bit more worried about a name like a BMNR or an SBET.
It kind of reminds me of when Chamath went and got like 100 SPACs, you know, and the first 10 worked and the last 90 didn't.
It's starting to dilute the process of what's happening there. So although we were buying, I was trying to buy this BMNR
into the 42 range and a little bit below that, I came in with options on it and stock. I kind of
sold it into it because I was just like, you know what, the more of these things that these guys
kind of all collaborate on, the less potent they're going to be and the more of a trap they could be.
You know, like BM&R was, you know, 100 and change and then had to go down to 40.
ESPED had a huge move also before having to go back to 16.
This OCTO might have a few days, but it's not going to be here in a week from now.
From now, in my opinion, it's going to be a lot lower.
In my opinion, it's going to be a lot lower.
So all the megabulls that have been permabulls are coming together and trying to put together
hollow companies and create a market for something.
To me, it's a little...
I get it.
Listen, people can make money.
Guys were looking at this thing when it was in the 30s and 40s, and it's a trade.
It went to 70, but some of these things got to just know what they are, and they're just
trades.
And then they have to prove that they're more than a trade.
But anyway, I would stay away from this OCTO, you know, Dan Ives.
I don't know what color jacket he's wearing today, but it's probably green because who knows when he's allowed to sell some of this.
So just be careful.
You know, the more of these things that come out, the less effect they're going to have when something you know gets announced you know you could play them there
are guys that make a living looking for volume looking for a big volume move that they catch
early on a filter and they might catch it 15 or 17 and you make a good day trade that's just not
my game my game is having a go-to list of 40 very liquid awesome awesome names that give you good setups, that give you
good trends. And every now and then they're working really well. And every now and then
you have to kind of figure out what's next and how to manage it with size. Like today,
everyone's like, what are you doing with Google? I'm like, I sold my Google on Friday. To me,
that was the trade. You were able to buy it, the gap and go a day, add to it the day after,
it gave you some follow through and now it needs a rest.
So, so where else can you go?
So in, in this land of mag seven, I've said, I think Amazon has probably the best setup
where, you know, you could be buying it and there's still some points of reference, like
two 37, 50 touch today, backed off.
You have the all time highs into two 42.
So there's still like you know ways to to to
gauge things that that have can have a breakout so um i like to like get involved when there is a
battle i like to be able to figure out who's going to win the battle and then go in that direction
and stay in that direction you know for like two to four days and then hold a small portion you know
just in case it continues.
And you have a lot of that, and that's our job.
Our job is to find that out.
You know, Baba, I think everyone here did a really good job with Baba.
We played it the first time with 129 calls,
and then last week I kind of got a little lucky.
I rolled him into the 140s, and now it looks like that can go to 145, 148.
Baidu finally, you know, after a bunch of false starts,
it paid us Friday into today. On Friday, you saw some relative strength in Baidu when the market
reversed Friday. When something shows you its face in technical analysis land, it's so nice
when you actually get paid on it because Baidu was stronger when baba was a little bit off or not as strong on friday and then boom look at look at the day baidu had
so you know now's the day that you have to three days or four days you have to take some off and
then sit with some um and then i think also a lot of guys uh were positioning into jd last week i
know i was buying the 33 calls i'm trying not to sell any of them.
I think that this is kind of like the move that's kind of waking it up, that can kind of loosen it up, and I think it can go higher. So typically my problem is I get in a little bit earlier than on the day it ignites.
I, instead of adding to get to my full position, I'm taking a little bit off and I have a little less for when, you know, everyone else kind of figures it out.
So I think JD could continue.
And it's just nice to see things that, you know,
that follow groups and trends and work versus predatory action.
There hasn't been not much of that lately.
So, you know, you're able to kind of see where the action is,
take your trade, figure out if you want to have a trailer on.
Sometimes I'll have too
many trailers on and then we pull in and then on 10 trailers that's a lot of slippage so lately i'm
trying to not have as many on just so i don't have as much slippage and i can continue the
net money um you do have the cpi and ppi this week um i think the the market's pricing in now
like 75 basis points of cuts so you're gonna need it not to be too hot for that.
So you could probably have some inside days between now and then.
Whereas, again, as long as like today, like now the spies keep trying to like sell, you know, sell the spies, which, you know, just unfortunately when that happens, they take a little bit of everything with it.
But I would love to see like two inside days in the spies after Friday, let it rebuild and let us continue to find the action.
And, you know, my biggest position in Mag7 is Amazon.
I feel like Meta is kind of rebuilding.
I feel like Microsoft has been really troublesome lately.
But that just shows you like, remember, two months ago, Microsoft and Meta were the trends.
They were awesome, while Apple and Google were out of play and not special.
So the beauty of the market is now Meta and Microsoft have not been the place to be since
earnings, but Google, Apple, and a little bit of Amazon, and maybe Tesla.
Tesla today is a little unfortunate.
I would have rather acted a little bit better. I maybe Tesla. Tesla today is a little unfortunate. I would have rather it, you know, acted a little bit better. But I still think I think Tesla is something to
watch this week. This is what I'm doing. I'm buying some 360 calls in Tesla. I probably,
you know, I went to Friday. I probably have to go out a little bit further. I do think that this
consolidation that Tesla has, you know, is setting the table for another move. I just don't know, you know, when exactly that is.
So I'm trying to go out a little bit further with options.
I might create a few call spreads just so I don't have to watch the day in and day out
action there because it sometimes is, you know, not the easiest to play actively.
And that was a lot.
I probably should have paused a few times and let people ask some questions.
Oh, that was great. I do want to ask you on Baidu, because actually I got some longer dated calls on Thursday.
I was looking at our friends over at Prospero have the AI ratings, and it was on both their short and long-term bull lists.
I pulled up the chart, and I'm like, wow, this looks like it's finally breaking out of downtrends.
All the moving averages just started pointing upward.
And then, yeah, today, huge day for them.
Do you have any additional commentary of color around that,
or are you just looking at the chart and the momentum there?
I just kind of looked at the chart and momentum.
You know, I've seen the news that's come out on it in the past six months,
and all the everything that comes out on it has kind of felt like positive,
but it just never had traction.
I would always, it'd gap up and fail, gap up and fail gap up and failed i'm like i almost put the
stock on the do not touch list but it just means that it wasn't ready yet so finally when bob really
had that first move you know when they announced the ai chip post earnings and i'm like you know
what i'm like it's going to be hard for them to suffocate baidu so that's when i started to add
some some options on and that was a week ago. Last Monday, unfortunately, I wasn't on.
I don't think I was on here with you guys.
I was buying a lot of the Baidu calls, the hundreds, and stayed with those.
And then I switched on Thursday to the 105s.
You know, you look on the weekly chart, it's like, wow, this is nothing so far.
113, 115, you could blow on this thing.
It should be there.
And then if it actually really gets traction, it's probably something that could stay on
the go-to list for a while. So I'm hoping it could be there. And then if it actually really gets traction, it's probably something that could stay on the go-to list for a while.
So I'm hoping it could be tradable.
Like today, if you came in long buy calls, get down to half or a third.
So if all of a sudden it wants to fill a bit of today's gap overnight in China, you don't
feel so bad about it and you could buy more.
So that's kind of like what I did with Baba.
Baba had the 129s.
It ran up to like 138, sold a third.
I didn't really care too much when Baba came into 132, 133, because I only had a third left. But then I'm like, you know what?
I'm going to take the rest of those on and roll them up to the 140s. And then now here we are at
140 where I sold a bunch, but I feel like I could wait a little bit longer before I have to reduce
there. So, you know, I do think Baidu's back on the map. I'd love it to stay on the map.
And I'm hoping JD gets better because it's always nice when there's a group.
You know, you get four or five names that trade kind of together and you can figure out which one's leading what.
And, you know, in a sea of red in the morning, you could add to it and trade around it and create cash flow.
And, you know, it acts better than the market at times. That's when you could really milk a group and trade the hell out of it until, you know, it gets to a spot, kind of like Google got to a spot where now you have to give it a few days.
Or even Apple.
Apple kind of got to that spot.
My target was $241 to $243.
It got there on Friday.
I just got out kind of because I know Apple so well.
Either they're going to try and sell us down into 1 o'clock tomorrow, which would be great because then it's probably buyable. But if they ran it straight through to tomorrow, no matter what they said, the next
iPhone could cure cancer and they would still try and sell it down because that's what they try and
do. They try and sell down the events. But again, yeah, Baidu looks, would I be buying Baidu right
now if I haven't bought Baidu the past week or so, if you're buying it here, you have to think you might be
wrong for a little bit and, and, and let it kind of regroup. Um, so, but I, what I would do is I
would just put it, you know, put it on the, you know, further higher on your list like you did
last week and, and keep it there. Cause as long as Baba continues to trend and show some leadership
and now Baidu is up there and then maybe Jadu plays along and maybe maybe Tiger T.I.G.R. is another name that that, you know,
guys are looking at, I think those four names.
And then you always have to always have to chart the K web because obviously
it's the industry for China, you know, put that, that's,
that's a group in my note now, like in my note,
I do like 40 different things and every now and then there's one of two names.
And now when I have five names,
that means the group is giving you a little bit of follow through and paying you to do some homework on there,
you know, so you're ahead of it. Yeah, it's funny you mentioned the no touch list. You know,
Baba and Baidu were both on that list for a long time. And I just recently pulled them off and
started watching them again. I was like, okay, maybe I can revisit these a little bit bit appreciate that rundown scott uh do you have anything else that you want to hit on quickly
before i uh go around to the panel you know i want to say like you know i do have guys that really
love crypto and are a lot smarter in crypto than me um i trade crypto and they're they're saying
that they think you know obviously homily came out and said Bitcoin to 200. And we know Bitcoin's having some problems around 111, 112.
But rebuilding after hitting 123, they're telling me that they think,
according to the industry insiders, that they really think
Sol is going to be the next one that kind of leads.
So if Bitcoin goes back to that 120, 123, that Sol is going to provide the alpha the way last time Bitcoin went,
Ethereum played catch up. You remember Ethereum had that really big move that we were all focusing
on. So they're buying SOLT. It's up 11% today. I'm not saying to buy it today. I don't own it.
I don't want to get so spread out in crypto just because, again, I just don't want to.
But they're saying
soul is going to be the one that's going to give you the best bang for the buck you know that's
not really like a meme you know the next time crypto tries to decide it wants to go back towards
that 120 or through 123. or solana however you want to say it. You know, I'm dating myself. I'm like a boomer, so I don't know the exact name.
I talked like in previous six.
Sol sounded pretty good, actually.
Up about, what, 4.75% today over there in Solana land.
That's very interesting.
Yeah, it's kind of been on the radar.
I was watching Coinbase as well in that basket of crypto names,
you know, kind of danced around the 300 level, reclaimed and got a nice little push today as well.
Yeah, I would say Coin looks good.
Coin, I would go out like a month and buy some options.
You know, at some point there's going to be an igniting bar in Coin, you would think.
It's funny how these names that were the most speculative ones are now like the old school conservative names.
Like now Mr. is like, you know, a value.
We're like now, you know, now Coinbase is considered like conservative compared to like CRCL and BMNR and, you know, and S-BED and all those things.
But anyway, it's just funny how that happens.
But Coin looks good.
Yeah, Coin has been consolidating for a while around the 300 level.
Again, I'm trying not to get too spread out in crypto land,
but I would think into this area after Coin just pulled in from the 400s,
you know, it's something here.
Go out like a month, and if it ignites,
it just looks and gets above, what, 314 or 315
and actually could hold above it.
You've seen a lot of fake outs.
Then maybe some shorts get squeezed a little and and uh you get a nice trade there
yeah I appreciate those thoughts Scott let's uh bring in some of the panel here uh options Mike
let's go over your direction first and uh we question we had a lot of great topics there uh
what stuck out to you and anything you want to add in?
Hey, guys.
What up, Options Mike?
Scott, how are you, man?
Good.
You know, for me, the Action Friday felt off.
And what I mean by that is when you go back and you look at sentiment and how it changed on Friday, everything went more bullish.
So that Friday's candle didn't quite feel right,
if that makes sense.
It like felt like a shake the tree kind of candle,
like, okay, we gapped up big, let's take it back.
For me, the one thing in this market is now
every all news is good news, right?
And that's always a little bit of a problem for me
in the market when every piece of news is good news.
You know, that no matter what the news is, if it's bad news, it market when every piece of news is good news you know that no
matter what the news is if it's bad news it's good news good news is good news all news is good news
but you know i'm looking at today and we're going into that print on wednesday morning with ppi which
was really hot last time and then we get cpi on thursday which people are saying is that going to
carry over from ppi to cpi and that's going to really dictate how
the market the Fed's going to react next week whether we get a you know I'm in the camp of a
0.25 rate cut a lot of people are thinking a 0.5 rate cut I don't think the market's going far
ahead of tomorrow ahead of these numbers I'm with you on Apple it's a sell the news event I mean
they already said they're going to do a separate AI event when they're ready so I mean I don't know
what else they could announce other than a it's a just a
product refresh which is always fine but it's not it's not a needle mover in
terms of something new or something different for me today it was I came in
very long Amazon and stocking calls got that nice pop on Amazon I'm down to just
a handful of calls now still holding my stock i wanted either app
app loving or hood this morning on the open and i grabbed hood calls because they're just more
liquid and i just easier for me to trade and i'm down to just a handful of those now i'm taking
that you know i think that's going to go to all-time highs which is now what 70 cents away
from yours is popping here this afternoon or so and you know meta to me today cooked me for a little bit of rod you know
try to get on that one and it just didn't hold up but overall it's been a quiet day but send me
go ahead sorry no it's weird like this meta it's like he'd say he has this spurred in the morning
and then just drifts the rest of the day you know it's it right you know yeah you know i kind of
followed my rules waited got in at the right time, got up, you know, on 10 options, a couple hundred bucks,
and I'm taking a small loss on it because it just wouldn't hold.
It just won't hold.
Yeah. Microsoft, just remember Microsoft on Friday was crazy.
That really hurt people.
You know, it looked like it was going to break above 510
and then just, you know, it's been sold every second.
But anyway.
And it's just not the easiest of markets
yeah it's just not the easiest yeah when things change they change and sometimes you know they
change before you even realize it and then you could really get hurt if you don't you know adjust
real fast and that's it you have to you kind of have to keep your head on the swivel and
i find markets like this i don't want a lot of positions on at once
because it's just too hard to manage and keep track of everything at once.
I had Bob on my radar like you this morning,
but the problem with these China names, they gap.
They don't give a lot of intraday movement.
You kind of have to just hold and just pray overnight.
You get a good move, and I don't like that right professional traders don't like to hold and pray there's no holding
and praying and trade yeah i just don't like that but that's why some that's why i really i use more
options with um with these chinese names just so at least i know what my risk is you know versus
if i'm in the name or like i had jd overnight because it was the ranges were so small i didn't
mind it but you know i had baba and baidu calls even though it would have been very nice to have
those shares versus the options options were good but you know the shares for the pnl could have been
a little bit you know more fun um but anyway yeah like you know and like like today even like i got
into xpev xpev which is you know, one of the EVs from China.
It looked like it was going to finally woke up again, had a day one.
And by the time you can get in it, now you have to just sit in it.
And now, you know, just, you know, actually just been sitting here all day.
So what do you do?
You have to take it overnight to get paid on it.
And then it's a China name that can do anything overnight.
Anyway.
Yeah.
That's why I tend to avoid the China names unless i can get unless i feel i can
get a day trade on it i just i don't like having that risk on them overnight right i will say
robinhood looks really good i'm looking at robinhood right now like this is you know they're
eating away at a lot of a lot of supply into this into this range and it's basically pretty much
been up here since what since august 8th so So for a month, it's been hanging up here.
But anyway, I feel like I have to own some of that and like just massage it and keep it for a few days,
especially if they have an event tomorrow where all those investors are feeling real good.
You know, they've had a nice, nice six months.
I honestly thought HUD would, I thought APP would be better than just because hood hood's been so rumored to go in i figured everybody owned it already going into you
know into this announcement and app is just much thinner of a name it doesn't have a big float
and i was you know app has a small float but nope i was dead wrong yeah yeah like vp also had a you
know well that's only seven dollars off highs but it was also
higher it was it was already through like the all-time highs so like it had a lot more of a gap
um app is tough it's kind of like a reddit it's very thin it's loose and wide you know i know i
had so i have some footsteps from that from when uh the short report came out on that and it was
really tricky you know but um but yeah when they i just said i just thought that hood would be easier to
say than app so i kind of got lucky with that for uh you know the community i tend to stay away from
app as well it's just as you said it's too fast and wide and it goes if it's thinly traded it
tends to be a little bit more tougher it tends to whip around you You guys mentioned XPeng, the XPEV.
They did have some announcements that came out
overnight into this morning.
One of them that caught my eye was flying car debut
in Dubai after they announced their breakthroughs.
And they also have some other stuff
that they're planning to launch mass market in 2026,
in case anybody missed those headlines and i agree those china
names but you know the stock was 25 on august 26 so i looked at it i'm like oh this is a day one
gap up good good kind of good exciting news tech land so you would think you could be long this and
it wasn't you know if if that news came out on 8 26 you'd be like all right buy the rumor
sell the news but it just pulled in from you know 25 26 down to 20 60 you'd think you could buy it
here responsibly so you know i'm going to try and hold it and see if uh you know get some traction
a little bit here probably better off just buying the 22s and go out a month or something i'm not
sure what's going on here but interesting but qs quantum scape you got a
lot of flow coming into it on the weekly 11 calls in the last couple minutes just over and over and
over again do they have anything do they work with ibm or anything i don't think so they had a pr this
morning about ducati motorbikes and their solid state battery was being demonstrated in Ducati motorbikes so they
had a nice PR this morning. Thank you bud. Yeah no my guys have been on you know it's funny how
right place wrong time or whatever like a month ago we were buying this like 950s 930s 910s and
then it just got so quiet and so out of play and I feel like a week or so ago I just cleaned up
everything and then all of a sudden this morning they came out with the news but you had to kind of own it because you know it hit 10
and change and now it's back to 955 if you bought it after the news now you have to figure out sip
sit through let it hang you know and really really you know be uh committed to it but anyway um yeah
there are there are guys on my on my Alpha team that love this name still,
and they think that you could just keep accumulating it,
that there's going to be a lot more, you know, kind of that kind of news to follow.
IBM also had a headline not too long ago that they have 70-plus quantum computers
that are production level is what they said i thought that was kind
of interesting i don't know if that fits in anywhere into this but uh it's just an interesting
headline that i heard a little bit earlier around ibm yeah it's a little you know just because
quantum's in the name it's not quantum computing but right yeah just like like that's wrong the
bell in my head yeah i-o-n-q head i own q that's qubt none of them are
really you know q look how tight qubt is if you want to talk quantum quantum computing for a
second check out this range in uh in qubt it's literally been from from uh what like june all
the way to now it's just been going sideways and consolidating and descending you want to talk
about a descending channel or descending triangle like this thing is tight like if you are quantum computing you know
fan or whatever and you think that there's going to be another move here it doesn't get much tighter
than qbt let's see qbts what does that look like yeah same thing big channel uh but from 15 to 20
since uh the gap up on may in may so if you're a quantum guy instead
of chasing momentum this is probably the time to go out and buy some calls like a month from now
or something like that and then when it wakes up and gets back in play um you know yeah that like
the this this group is tighter than it's been in a while um you know i just i kind of like like i
talk about like go-to lists you know what's in
play what's non-play etc etc so like this is moved to like my c list but i'm always looking at it and
always looking at it and you know i i don't have fomo here so i'm not like going out and buying
like the 45 ionq you know mid mid-october calls just because i'm not worried about missing it but
there's a lot of money accumulating these things right now in these ranges.
Options, Mike, anything else you want to hit on before we go over to Wolfie?
No, pass it around.
I think it's a pretty quiet day,
and we're waiting for Wednesday morning, I think, for the most part.
Yeah, definitely a lot of things coming down the pipe.
You guys were hitting on and i mentioned
a little bit earlier for those maybe joined a little bit later we do have the robin hood event
tomorrow night we have the apple event tomorrow afternoon and some other things coming obviously
ppi cpi coming down the pipe here wolfie let's uh let's throw it over your direction and see uh
anything that we've been hitting on if you've got any thoughts around those
subjects or anything else that is on your radar today yeah um i mean i was on space with options mike and you guys earlier uh
i think you know some of the stuff that some of the stuff's getting a little wonky for me so like
the the wrapper bmnr wrapper basically is what I'm going to call it, the Octo thing.
It's a little nutty for me.
I traded it for what it's worth, so I'm not talking about it disparagingly as a trade,
but just like when you start to see stuff like that, it's kind of where I start to wonder,
you know, are we at a point where we could see some sort of, you know, tipping the other
way from a momentum standpoint?
Or are we just going to keep doing the thing to just go further and further down the risk chain?
So I just wanted to bookmark that, put that on the side.
I think they touched on a lot of stuff.
I think they touched on a lot of stuff.
The reports, obviously, this week is what everyone's going to pay attention to.
The reports, obviously, this week is what everyone's going to pay attention to.
Anything heating on the inflation side with that jobs report and anybody who's said stagflation for the last few months is probably going to come back and bolder than ever.
And just a piece of clarity here from last week.
Last time I talked, we were talking about possible setups I was looking at.
I mentioned SoundHound, which had, I think I told Evan directly on the space,
they had $5 million in call buying for the October, I think it was 15 strike.
And then they came back on Friday and bought some more.
Stock was outperforming on a Friday in a week taped.
I took a trade.
Trade's done well.
I think the rumor that people are attaching to it is the Apple event tomorrow.
I don't think that's got really any juice.
Maybe I'm wrong, but, you know, calls are up over 100% since then. If you're in the trade, just kind of like YOLOing it into the events a little more degen than I like to do.
So I cut a significant amount there.
I talked about CrowdStrike as well.
CrowdStrike held its 200-day for like four or five days.
I felt it was a really good setup against that 200-day spot.
Stocks up and performed pretty well since then.
So I think, you know, from a market perspective, you're getting opportunities.
I mean, Mike talked about hood and app.
I prefer to trade app to hood.
That's just me.
But, you know, that's what makes markets.
I think you've got to, like, just basically kind of trade what's in front of you.
For me, I'm trying to look around the corner and like what could happen and i saw your tweet earlier where it's
like vix up gold up um oil up stocks up small caps up or what i don't remember if there's more to it
but basically when in doubt buy everything right so uh if you if i look at it as like if you've
got stuff that's performed this is a good
spot to kind of like assess your weight you've got stuff that you've wanted to kind of get rid of and
just giving you opportunity to get rid of it i think now for the next few weeks at least just
from a short-term basis now now is a good time to figure out like you know what you're comfortable
holding should something come out of nowhere um you know kind of sell when you can, what you're comfortable holding should something come out of nowhere, you know, kind of
sell when you can, not when you have to type of thing. I also think that doesn't mean that you
go out and try to call tops and try to like piss in the wind for lack of a better term. I think you,
you know, try to find momentum pockets where you have them. I still continue to lean on, you know, the, the SMID cap or, you know, higher momentum type of
larger cap names. That's just me. If, but you know, if you're one of those people that's trying
to scalp stuff, good for you. I think you just got, I think you also got to know levels. So if
you look at Tesla, for example, open it at a very critical level today and just backed off right off
of it. Um, you know, if you've got, If you chase that, then it probably didn't bode
well for you. But on the other side, if you're buying supports in the last couple of weeks for,
let's say, Google, for example, you've been rewarded. I think Scott mentioned Amazon.
Amazon's pressing into a downtrend that it's pretty meaningful. We talked about it last week,
I think on Thursday as well. It's pretty meaningful. We talked about it last week, I think on Thursday as well.
It's pretty meaningful.
If it could break out, you basically don't really have any overhead until you get to
the all-time high, which is a nice little trade, especially on options front, if you
can get it.
I want to pay attention to Adobe later in the week.
I mentioned that on your space earlier.
Adobe held a, I think, six-year uptrend here in the latest downtrend, down sell-off that it had.
And it's pressing right up against pretty critical bull bear moving average, I think the 50-day and
then into a downtrend as well on a short-term basis. But the important part is that the
disconnect from where Adobe trades today and the 200 day is about 50 points.
So it's a pretty meaningful 15%, 17% upside potential if they just don't say anything worse than people are expecting.
And I kind of feel like that's kind of the setups that I'm possibly looking for.
It doesn't mean I want to get out in front of it ahead of the earnings.
Just like if they come out and report something that's not as bad as feared. It's one of those
things you could see it up like 15% in a blink. So just kind of
earmark that. Can I say something on that
also? Go for it.
I spoke to a very smart guy today who's been in the business for a while too. And he was looking
at Adobe. He's like, it's a good setup. It's been brought down a lot.
He's like, if it's just in line a little better than feared,
it could be a really good trade.
And then he said, look at some others
that have been battered and bruised in that group.
He also thinks that now everyone's going to forget about CRM.
And CRM could just start repairing and going higher
now that that quarter was out of the way.
But he liked Adobe Alls.
Yes.
So I'm just –
Yes, Scott, I posted –
No, no, it's great.
It's good to have like minds.
But I posted – I think it was – I think it was the Tuesday –
it was like a couple weeks before NVIDIA had earnings.
But there was a moment where it made an all-time high and it backed off. Tuesday before, it was like a couple weeks before, before NVIDIA had earnings, but there
was a moment where it like made an all time high and it backed off.
And I think, you know, a lot of the hardware AI plays and some of the favorites that have
won up until that point kind of started to back off then.
And I don't think it was a coincidence that you saw some of these software names that
got destroyed.
CRM is one one is another one i posted a chart of both adobe and crm's and it is august 12th 13th i don't think it's a coincidence that you saw some of these software
names kind of get a floor kind of get bid at the same time when some of these you know hardware
favorites kind of started stall out and i don't think it's a coincidence that you see relative
outperformance from those names at the same time you see relative underperformance from the likes
of Nvidia and so on. So it doesn't mean that these stocks are going to go to the moon and the other
stocks are going to go to zero. It just means that it's a tactical market and you got to like
start to look for performance where you look for it. An anecdote of this, if you take a look at
GitLab, like GitLab sold off on the back earnings, and here we are. We're right back to
I think we're above where we were. Yeah, it's filled the gap.
It closed the gap. Yeah, it closed the gap and then some.
People are setting up these names. CRM as well. They had earnings.
They gapped it down, and we pretty much filled the gap.
Some of these setups are setting up beyond just these event-driven catalysts, right?
So, you know, if they come out and say something that's not as bad as people feared, maybe you get a sell-off just because it's moved so much.
But it's one of those things I want to pay attention to because I think there's a larger move that's looming.
The last thing, I don't think anybody really mentioned it yet, but
it kind of goes in line with this positioning standpoint. I'd say like a month ago, I talked
about how I thought the positioning and oil names were set up in a certain way. And it kind of gave
an opportunity on the back of a retest to break out of these downtrends or the likes of Valero
went back to the 200 day. So it was a good setup for the long side.
It's been a good setup.
I booked most of the profits, as I told you guys last week.
But similar kind of positioning perspective, like take a look at the TLT, right?
So from a positioning standpoint, like dead, left for dead, all that stuff, you know, you
could say yields higher for longer, whatever you want to assign to it.
But just take a look at the TLT for the last five days, I'm going to say, right?
Four days just to be conservative.
But that's a massive move for that thing in a four-day period.
And that's kind of the same logic.
You get things pushed too far on one side.
It doesn't take much.
It doesn't even have to take a headline necessarily for short covering or for the move to kind of go the other way in your favor.
And then the cool thing about stocks that are kind of been left for dead like this is if you if you're playing them from it, you guys talked about China, for example.
If you're playing them from an options perspective, generally when they get beaten up and left for dead and suppressed for as long as they get, you get this like low IV events or low IV setups.
again, you get this like low IV events or low IV setups. So it kind of opens the door for like,
you know, exposure at a discount to what you normally would have that exposure for.
And then it doesn't, again, it doesn't take much. And the next thing you know, things become crowded
and, you know, you can get hundreds of percent return on just a small, and a small bet can turn
into a real bet without you having to risk real
money right so you don't want to do it you know every day every week every whatever but like you
know sometimes positioning gets up that way conversely i mean take a look at gold take a
look at precious metals all that stuff up into the right like parabolic like you know it's interesting
because we've when we had the conversation i think mish with Mish like a month ago, and I was saying, you know,
gold to silver on a relative basis looks good.
And it's a gold to Bitcoin, all that stuff.
Like people weren't talking about it now that it's up into the right,
you know, everybody's now, Hey, is it too late to buy gold?
Gold's going to like,
and that's not where you want to buy these things in my opinion.
You want to see some sort of consolidation. You don want to chase stuff so you know just for me right
now i'm looking for some of these again some of these beaten up names that have kind of been
pressed sideways into downtrends and so on and so forth uh at critical levels uh i've mentioned
you know crowd strike for example bought bought the 200 day if you bought 200 day last week you're
you're rewarded now and you're in a position where where you can kind of set a stop and not really pay attention to it, and who knows how far this thing will go, right?
So it's kind of like where my head's at.
Can I add something to that?
Go for it.
I just want to add this.
Go for it.
I just, again, like you said, something that stuck out to me today so in the last month or so like if you remember we were on with logic and we were talking about the rotation into xbi and everyone hated the xbi and xbi wound up being
a really good trade just like the iwm if you remember we also did the trade you were talking
about the xle and i just got kind of lucky i sold most of my xle um up in like the 90 area um just
because again for some reason i had too many positions on when we pulled back
over the summer and i had trailers and like 14 different things and each one of them pulled in
a bunch and it added up to a lot so anyway i i bought i just started buying the xle again thinking
that there still could be more money rotating and whatnot and this is kind of still in that crazy
big upper channel that's been left for dead for two, three years. And some people think that we just had like a clearing event with, you know, with whatever the news was about oil.
I'm not that smart.
But anyway, I just think I went out just to let you guys know, I think it's a good risk reward.
October 1088.
You know, they're really cheap.
I might go out another week or two.
I feel like, you know, the XLE just could be a group in October that might get some flows.
And it's just like a cheap type of way to do it.
And then when it actually shows you that it's worth it, and then you add the ETF and you add to it.
Right now, I'm just like putting on a feeler.
So it's kind of on my radar because I guess sometimes if you sell something well, you have the luxury of buying it back.
But I think I don't like the same way.
It felt like the XBI was over.
Everyone's like, it's over.
I'm going to pull back to like the 88 area, you know, and then it held the 88 area and
just went to 96.
I feel like this is a pretty important spot for the XLE to kind of hold this 86, 86 half.
So if you are thinking that energy could get some flows in the next month or two,
this is probably the spot where you could buy some options. And if it doesn't work,
you're really not spending that much money. So if you take a look at, I'm just gonna pick
on XLE real quick and then I got a secondary follow-up, but take a look at the XLE chart,
just draw a line from November of 2024, then March of 2025, April of 2025, and then last
September, what is it, September 2nd, last Tuesday, it's in a very clear, very well-defined
downtrend.
So if you're not like Scott and you don't want to take a shot buying a dip here, maybe
you want to buy a dip at the 100-day, I don't know, it doesn't matter, 85, 86 doesn't matter,
just splitting hairs at that point. But if you don't want to take a shot buying the dip,
that's your trend line to pay attention to. And I think you break out there, you might have some
real performance chase, especially on the back half of this quarter. A secondary, you guys are
talking about XBI, for example, but take a look at some of these components in the xlv right so you have the
aca rolling off you've got you know uh some value there if people are trying to hide in a potential
potential stagflation theme that everybody's going to be talking about potentially in the
next couple weeks not calling for stagflation not saying that but like when you think of these
stuff stuff like that you have to think where where would people possibly rotate they want to
rotate in stuff that pays them a yield kind of pays them to be involved in that's not
in in destroyed downtrends right so like take a look at some of these components like uh merc
for example broke out of a two three year downtrend i think uh and then it's pressed right back up
against its uh 200 day which was 87 50 and now it's consolidating between the 150 day and the 200 day so like a
breakout of 200 day that's probably going to get you some on that up the upside take a look at
something like johnson and johnson which has been you know a stellar outperformer since it broke out
in july and that kind of that can kind of give you a precursor for what some of these moves could
kind of look like should they uh get bought and i know this one's not in the xlv but um you know by the way
i'm looking at the xlv right now it's very interesting you know you have that gap up
that held you had the gap up that held when was did you look at did you see that um that was yeah
yeah we're holding we're consolidating we're consolidating between 50 and the yeah right
below the right below the 200 day also yep you know 200 gets above the 200 i like this trade i think you probably yeah go you
know go out a month and buy like the 140s or more than 137 halves or something yeah that 200 day
basically coincides with the downtrend that started back in uh i think october of 2024 so like
you know you've got you've got setups i'm not saying that these are all gonna work but i'm
just saying like that's kind of to me stuff that's kind of left for dead you know when people start positioning in october and
scott could speak to this as well in october october november if you don't get if you don't
get like a meaningful sell-off people are going to start performance chasing and positioning for
next year right so like some of the stuff that does that does tends to do well is stuff that like
people aren't in because it doesn't take much money to kind of move that stuff stuff especially if it's smaller and you're just rotating from big names into small names other
stuff that is like you know themes for this for this upcoming year that people are going to try
to get ahead of so it's kind of like where the logic is on on that front and then the last one
for me that's just not it's not it's kind of like a similar ballpark but it's not the same thing
uh again i'm looking at you, bios that I don't,
I don't like to pick the bios to that, you know, are, you know,
they have a pipeline for the potential of future stuff.
Cause I don't, I don't want to do all that work.
That's not the game that I want to play.
I know there's guys that are really good at that. Good, good for them.
That's not the game I want to play.
I look for stuff that has just been beaten up that already has like
established pipelines potentially that, you know, game i won't play i look for stuff that has just been beaten up uh that already has like established
pipelines potentially um that you know could be bolt on acquisitions maybe or something like that
but if you take a look at something like biogen for example left for dead double top 444 uh sells
off from 444 back down to like a hundred dollars it's trading right at its 50 week there's a a lot
of runway between 50 week i think it's like 25 runway between 50 week. I think it's like 25% runway between 50 week and its downtrend.
It's the kind of setup I'm looking for.
It's battling at its 200 day right now.
It's above it,
but I'm just going to call it a battle because I don't know how it's going to
close out in the next few days,
but any sort of follow through on this one.
And I think this one can kind of skip integers,
you know,
and then in the next few weeks,
next few months.
So it's kind of stuff I'm looking for. I just wanted to put it out of skip integers, you know, in the next few weeks, next few months.
So it's kind of stuff I'm looking for.
I just wanted to put it out there. And then, you know,
Scott can speak to whatever he wants to speak to on the back of that.
No, I like that.
I like a lot of what you said, to be honest,
a lot of things that I'm kind of thinking about also.
Like I'm a momentum trader.
I love to trade for momentum.
And, you know, like I said, if you can catch, you know,
the bottom end of an area when it's kind of like resetting up and then you're engaged and you can see when it changes and gets the volume and then get some momentum and then you can play the upper end of the range for a breakout, you're making a lot of money, you know, so that's.
names, right? So like these, these boring low IV names, uh, you know, when they start to move and
they like, again, the, the, the TLT, for example, like option, like just from an options perspective,
this is about hundreds of percents on, on some, on this kind of move because of like how condensed
and compressed it's been. So, you know, Johnson and Johnson was another one that broke out of
a downtrend. Like you're talking about turning pennies into dollars, right?
So I trade options.
It's predominantly what I do.
I'm with you, Scott.
I try to find momentum.
I try to find momentum indicators where the tide can kind of turn.
And I'm not really seeing too much value in the short run,
not like for the rest of the year, just for the very short run,
on some of these mid- to upper-cap Momo names that I've been trading in the last few weeks.
So start to look for where the pucks, skate to where the pucks are possibly going to go,
and that's kind of like where my head's at.
Last one would be like beaten up food names, so just super boring.
General Mills, for example, back to a really critical level.
It's flirting with breaking out of a pretty major downtrend.
So same kind of thing.
Trade it against 48, trade it against 50, whatever you want.
Should it break out, it could turn into a real thing.
If not, you're risking pennies to make dollars.
All right, listen, on that note, I got to go.
I got to go back to my alpha team.
It's 351.
So someone else has got to take you guys into the four-hour talk.
But good stuff.
Appreciate you, Scott. Make sure you're following mr red dog up there i was going to slide it over to logical next and see uh i don't know scott's gotta leave either way but uh logical i want to
pull you in next we'll get over to ali and sam as well logical how was how was your day in the
market what was your uh was your read of anything going on? Anything that maybe you've heard us speaking about or anything new maybe that you want
to bring into the conversation today?
How are you, sir?
Yeah, I think everything I've been basically saying for the last couple of weeks, I would
say a few months ago, again, I was a little early to the trade, but not wrong.
And the trade is playing out.
We're seeing with the bios that everyone's mentioning now, it seems to be the hot sector.
Here's what i'll say the uh weekly chart on the xbi will show you that you know we were
rejected a few times at the 200 sma on the weekly uh earlier this year uh and then just last week
or the week before we broke above the 200 sma so if this move is to be held i believe it will
um i think the backdrop is definitely changing i think that um you know basically the
xbi was left for dead we retested those 10-year lows that we've tested five different times like
2022 2020 etc like at the rest around the 60 level 66 level so we retested all that um and then it's
just been up since obviously a lot of indices have been but um actually xbi was
bottoming before the tariff tantrum bottom of the rest of the market specifically because of
all the bad sector specific news like um you know trump's pharma tariffs um or or price increases
or decreases um the rfk. assignments, the health department,
you have Vinay Prasad, who's like a big critic of the FDA,
getting announced to be the FDA CBER director.
All those things were just punishing the sector back,
you know, back to back to back to back.
It was all bad sentiment.
And so the price of these assets were extremely cheap
to reflect that bad sentiment. And to me, of these assets were extremely cheap to reflect that
bad sense of it. And to me, I just feel like, you know, I'm an investor first, trader second.
And so to me, I was looking at public equity markets as oftentimes because of its liquidity,
giving you an opportunity as an individual investor, somebody who is not like, we are not
fund managers. We don't need to report to people quarter to quarter. So I think you have an advantage to be able to buy things when you
think that the price of them is below the value of the asset. And, you know, it seems like a very
silly and stupid thing, but in reality, you have a lot of these opportunities every single day in
the market. I stuck to my guns on the biotechs and, you know, they're definitely playing out and i think now we're getting a lot of buys on them we're getting a lot more chatter on
them and it totally makes sense you know in in the first half of this year you basically had
record m&a um so the first 60 uh months we did more m&a than any of the last eight years
that is a turning point um and so we're still going to get a lot more M&A, I believe,
in the back half this year. There are patent clips at different big pharma companies.
They're going to have to load up that pipeline. And there's a lot of good assets. There's a lot
of cheap assets. And as the rates come lower, you're not going to be a CFO just parking your
money in T-bills and starting to get 3.5% on that return. It's just not worth it. And if you don't bid up
these assets now, your competitors will, you'll become nobody and you'll just fade into the
background. So that's kind of always been my thesis. And again, damn, that's harsh.
That's the facts, brother. What happens to your revenues when your patents go away? Nothing.
So, I know, I know.
So I know, I know. It was just funny how you said it. You're like, you're fading into nothing.
It was just funny how you said it.
You're like, you're paid into nothing.
I'm very critical.
Hey, there's an NVIDIA headline that says,
management says in appearance at Goldman Conference
that the company has received H20 licenses for key customers in China.
Yeah, yeah.
They actually said quite a bit more than that.
That was the headline.
I just went and listened to the statement.
He said that within 48 hours of them requesting the licenses they were directly issued
by the white house that's pretty interesting but it's also interesting the move on the back of it
so it's so it's selling i would expect the moc so it started pushing up the moc imbalance for nvidia today was like almost 4 million shares
thank you um all right if you guys are good with that let me just continue my rant and i'll promise
to keep it short and you guys keep rotating but uh so look i think that you have high quality
assets trading for cheap my largest position right now is nectar therapeutics i keep saying
it this thing's up another nine percent today in the the last one week, it's up 50%. In the last one month,
it's up 92%. Both of my IRAs, mine and my wife's, I've put 100% of our assets in there. So the last
one month, they're up 92%, which is incredible. I'm not going to sit here and brag about it,
because there are still pretty small portions of the total accounts. I do have a fair share in my taxable as well, which is my main account. And again, those shares are up really
nicely. It's my largest position around 13% right now because it just keeps climbing every day.
The other day you had the Sanofi data, which basically said that Sanofi did not meet its
primary endpoint. And so this nectar drug is basically kind of the best data on the market,
which just killed a bear case.
And that's why it's just been pumping.
And Sanofi that day, by the way, lost $12 billion of market cap, whereas Nectar Therapeutics just gained like a couple hundred million cents.
So reality, if you were able to reflect that market cap change in Sanofi into Nectar Therapeutics, this thing could be up a lot, lot, lot more.
I think that's what a lot of bio guys are basically saying, which is why I haven't even trimmed any of my shares.
Originally, onto the data, I traded a good position from 14 to 34, came back down to that 20s level.
I bought it at 25, basically average in the consolidation.
This thing's trading at 44 right now. Amazing.
Yeah, it's a top position for me. I it makes sense that m and a bolt-on candidate
i think wolfie was saying you know there's a lot of these companies that already reported data so
you don't have as much of a binary catalyst uh to be concerned about uh which is why you know
in a lot of situations like even in abvx uh which is up you know 10x from the lows uh you know that's
one that i i talked about on here a couple months ago, when they reported data, the stock went from 10 to 60 overnight. I took those profits,
felt stupid, because I just booked those gains. And then I ended up reentering the stock around
70. So it's like, I sold it at 60, bought it back at 70. And now the stock's at 90. Because,
you know, that seems like a very clear bolt on acquisition for some big biopharma, huge peak sales potential,
really, really, really solid data.
And the CEO, definitely the kind of guy that wants to sell the company, it seems like.
And it's so funny because my buddy on here, CeeDee, he's one of the best bio guys on here.
Shout out to him.
He just posted today Pfizer's flight data to Paris which was very interesting
over the last few months and so potentially Pfizer could be a suitor that's the speculation
but yeah I mean I think a lot more M&A to come in the biotech sector it's easy to just you know
as I was saying before like you don't need to be a hero I'm not like a biologist PhD I just
identify the people who are really smart and kind of roll with them
and i find opportunities that make sense from a fundamental perspective as well like looking at
the valuation of the stock via its market cap or enterprise value uh looking at the you know the
peak sales estimate of that that that data and or the commercial drugs that's already been approved
so you can avoid um like think about it if you If you bought Nectar back at $20, $22, where it was, it's already doubled.
And that's after the data.
That is after, you know, the tail risk situation.
So, you know, and another one, like Syndax Pharmaceuticals, SNDX,
that thing's up, like, over 80%.
That was already commercially launched.
They had, like, $600 million of cash on the balance
sheet, trading at like an 800 mil market cap with a very strong launch in their commercial drugs,
two of them. So there's a ton of these setups left and right. Look, they haven't all necessarily
worked out. But when you have such low enterprise values, you're paying such low valuations,
it's really hard to see yourself not catch a win here the expected returns should be you know very very positive and yeah you don't need to take that
binary risk I think eventually maybe uh once these opportunities dry up because these stocks run 50
100 200 um then the next you know the incremental opportunities from there become a lot less uh
risk you know a lot worse on a risk reward basis but as of right now
um there's still been a ton of opportunity so yeah nectar largest position up nine percent today
and another one is s tie uh aviation that thing's up like uh seven or eight percent today which is
nice to see uh it's a top five position for me as well abvx just climbing every single day now above
90 and yeah i, that's it.
I've reduced my number of positions to 18,
which is the lowest I've had basically all year.
I've improved the quality of my portfolio.
I've talked about housing.
The housing trade is very macro.
It's a macro trade.
It's a cyclical trade,
which means you can throw a dart at the wall
and it should work.
And I mean, one name might outperform the other, it's less you know it's more contingent on the backdrop
and less contingent on the individual name whereas bios you could end up picking company a and company
b and end up getting absolutely screwed um if you don't pick the right one so i think housing is a
little bit different than that and so yeah housing bio continue to be a big exposure for me i've
reduced a ton of my leverage reduced reduced a ton of my position,
reduced a lot of stress.
Don't need to manage or maintain, kind of monitor all these different positions
and just pick the good spots and that's it.
Let it rip.
Go ahead, Wolfie.
Jump in and then we'll go over to Ali.
Yeah.
I mean, just real quick. He talked about Nectar. I actually took that trade in the low 20s.
I wasn't involved in the trade that gapped it up late June from like $8 to $37 or whatever it went to.
I bought it on a check back in the low 20s. I just closed it today.
It's filled the gap. I was looking for one gap filled, got two. So yeah, great trade. That's one. There's other ones like it. So if you go back to Sarepta, for example, Sarepta had data.
The data and what people were expecting was bad. They ended up selling the name off multiple times.
They sold it off, I think, from, as far as when I was tracking it, they sold it off from the 30s down to like 10 bucks.
I mean, you could have just bought it on the back of things selling off.
And then, you know, I'm saying it now because it's not it's not up like, you know, whatever it is.
Right. So it's always easy to point to things after the fact that this this is one for example it traded down to you know 10 bucks now it's trading at 16 um so like you know there's plenty of opportunities to buy things that get left for debt i gotta i gotta jump in on srpt
here though because it's not a simple one um it was down to ten dollars because they literally
pulled off all of their drugs off the market,
buying it at $10.
Yeah. What I'm saying.
Yeah.
What I'm,
I hear you.
But what I'm saying is there's,
there's set up that you don't have to play the binary stuff,
right?
You don't have to play.
That is binary.
I would say that is binary.
Agreed.
Disgree.
Okay,
cool.
The problem.
There's another,
another one,
for example,
just go down the pike because people were waiting on Viking Therapeutics, for example, right?
So Viking Therapeutics was trading north of 40, then gaps down to the low 20.
If you liked it at 40 and they come out with the data and the data suggested that it's going to work, but the stocks traded from 40 to 24 kind of gives you a better floor a floor for an entry right but
that's that's just i agree with you though i am long srpt and i do agree that the the upside is
very good from here especially if they have no other incident incidences um they have it's not
necessarily that they had bad data and why the stock tanked um i mean technically it is data but
they had multiple patient deaths linked to their drug so that that's
that's kind of why yeah but as far as if i understood that one of the debt like the main
death that was in question was like not even relevant to the drug itself as far as i remember
but uh my my point is not to get in the weeds on it you're you're right i'm not going to disagree
but like my point you probably know better than i do but i'm saying my point is you know you don't
have to play binary events.
You can wait for the volatility to get destroyed on the call side or on the put side or whatever.
And then, you know, after some of these headlines come out, take a shot knowing, you know, even if you don't start to write like it's a 10 bucks and you're like, this could go to zero.
This could go to zero.
Like you're risking 10 bucks, right?
You're risking $10, right, if you're buying the stock,
but you buy an option, for example,
and maybe you're risking $200, $300 instead of that $10,
which kind of sets up for you to kind of take a longer-term punt,
for lack of a better term.
And there's plenty of them like that in that entire space.
I wanted to speak to it from a perspective of someone
who doesn't like to go into the weeds and look to figure out what the, it's not my game personally.
So I'm just saying for anybody that feels like they could be dissuaded from that type of thing, there's plenty of times where the event happens, the IV gets destroyed, the setup gets, you know, fine.
And then you can take a shot that's, you know, basically asymmetric in your favor.
And then you can take a shot that's, you know, basically asymmetric in your favor.
Like Logical said, if everything got priced into zero and they just have to be less, they just have to be better than zero, then cool.
Great. Works out for you.
Great. Back and forth there, gentlemen.
Always leave it open like Evan does there in case anybody else
wanted to jump in uh i do want to bring in ali and ali how are you are you uh tracking any of
the stories in the market this direction and of course i would love to get some of your takes
around all the data and stuff going on hi yes so obviously right now i would echo what folks have
been saying about how markets are pretty much in wait and see mode to see what we'll find out from inflation.
I also think tomorrow's estimates for the annual benchmark revisions that can maybe lead to some volatility.
There are some estimates out there that 900,000 jobs could potentially be erased from the past year.
So I think there's going to be a lot of focus on that, especially after that.
Jobs report last week showed those pretty dismal revisions.
So I would keep an eye out on that for some volatility.
And it just feels like we're in a moment where Wall Street is trying to decide if we're super bullish or maybe we're a little more cautious.
Maybe we're a little more cautious. We're obviously trading at record highs. But then after that jobs data, it does call into question the future of Fed rate cuts and maybe how aggressive the Fed could be. There's now traders pricing in that 50 basis point odds. I think right now the 25 basis point is pretty much a done deal. But you never know. We literally saw this exact story last September.
We're obviously trading at record highs.
But reading through some Wall Street commentary this morning, it was interesting because some
voices were saying how a Fed cut might not be such a good thing for stocks in the near term.
Ed Yardeny from Yardeny Research was out with a note saying that you shouldn't be cutting
in this environment, that right now markets and really the economy doesn't need a cut, that we have productivity gains, that GDP is strong.
And if you do cut at this point, you could risk a market melt up where a lot of money just continues to pour into the stock market.
And that could lead to some instability and speculative rallies driven by FOMO rather
than some of the fundamentals. And more often than not, that leads to some sharp drawdowns.
So that could be one potential risk. But at the same time, you have other strategists like
Goldman Sachs, David Koston, who is saying that rate cuts will be a further tailwind for the
stock market and really extend this rally beyond just the mag seven and pull in some of those small cap companies that have been undervalued in this bull market.
That's really been dominated by the AI trade.
But even within the AI trade, we still have NVIDIA and Microsoft that have not hit record highs in the weeks.
And maybe maybe it's all relative, right?
Like how could NVIDIA not have hit a record
high in weeks? But still, it calls this question of whether or not the AI trade is a bit wobbly
at this point. So that was just some of the fodder that I was reading today through the
Wall Street commentary and really trying to assess what does a Fed rate cut mean in the context of this market,
in the context of this economy.
And if we do have a 25 basis point cut, if it's not as aggressive as maybe it should be, will that be enough to offset some of the economic weakness that we've seen?
And of course, what are the dangers of the Fed cutting into an environment where we could
have stickier pricing pressures?
And when it comes to
CPI later this week, I'm going to be very focused on the services side, because we saw that we
accelerate a bit last month. And that was something that economists called out as a reversal from what
we've seen earlier in the year. And that was able to offset a lot of those tariff price increases.
So if we're now in an environment where services
are going to be stickier, that suggests that something else is going on underneath the surface
besides just tariffs. And the Fed will not be able to look through that as a one-time
price adjustment or price increase. So the Fed has a lot cut out for them and a lot riding on this
first rate cut. But I really don't think it's all about
what we see next week, more so what we see through the end of the year. There's a lot of variety out
there on Wall Street when it comes to the expectations. Some think we'll only see this
one cut. Others say three cuts and some are two. And then others are really focused ahead on 2026.
So I think later this week, we're going to get a lot more clarity, maybe, on that outlook.
And obviously, after the Fed eases a bit, we'll see what the reaction is with stocks.
I do expect that near-term bump.
But I think it's what does that gestation period look like if the economic data continues to be weak?
Are we now firmly in a place where
bad news for the economy is good news for stocks? Or is it going to be, well, bad news for the
economy is bad news for stocks? And we got a bit of that reaction on Friday. Initially,
after that job support, you saw this stock market spike. And then we did pull back a bit. So I think
traders are trying to figure out what this all means in the context of the economy.
Quick headline.
I know some people have talked about Planet Labs around this space before.
They just dropped an offering.
They were up like 48% today, but just dropping back here on that offering news.
here on that offering news. Ali, one of the things that I've seen floated around it, and I have the
same question, is if this goes from a maintenance cut, you know, 25 basis point maintenance cut to a
we have to cut scenario, is that maybe the pivot point? I'm curious if you've heard anything or any
thoughts that you have around, like, maybe that's what the negative reaction could end up being. If the commentary around the cut is, well, the data is starting to fall apart a little bit,
like there's maybe some cracks underneath the surface, that could be taken differently than,
oh, we're just, it's time to cut 25 basis points maintenance wise.
Right. I think it's that question, is the Fed behind? And there are some out there that certainly say, yes,
the Fed is behind. They've been behind all summer. And you can even look at the revisions. I mean,
June, we now have negative job growth for the month of June. If the Fed knew that, I think we
probably would have seen a cut this summer if we had negative job growth. At the same time, we're
in a very unique jobs market where we have
an aging population coupled with this immigration crackdown that is really hurting the supply side.
So even though we have unemployment rate historically low, hovering at that 4.3% level,
there's other things going on there because the supply has shrunk so much. So how do you kind of
take that and look at the non-farm payroll number, which economists have told me we might be in an
environment where we consistently just see around 50K additions per month that were significantly
below 100,000, that the job girth that we've been seeing over the past few years, that that doesn't
exist in this current jobs market. That's going to take a bit for markets to get used to, I think
for policymakers to get used to. Or is the economy still healthy if we only see 22,000 jobs added?
You could look at GDP data and say, based on where we're currently at, yeah, maybe it is healthy. So I think that's a big part of it, too, is that we're just in this different, unprecedented environment where you have tariffs, still an overhang for a lot of businesses. And a lot of those tariff sensitive sectors of the jobs market, they have now dipped into negative territory. That was something that Carson Slott from Apollo Global pointed out this morning. So you have all of these pain points
within this market, within this economy, a lot of the uncertainties that these businesses are
trying to deal with, that everyday Americans are trying to deal with. And on top of that,
you have policymakers trying to make sure that they're ahead of the eight ball here. And for a while,
the focus was on inflation. Now, though, I think the labor side of the dual mandate, that has
certainly been the priority. And Jerome Powell really set us up for this during his Jackson
whole speech. So as long as that remains the priority, that is what the focus is going to be
on. Now, we haven't seen jobless claims fall off
a cliff. We've seen continuing claims edge up a little bit. But a lot of those more forward-looking
indicators aren't signaling the panic button just yet. So I think that is encouraging.
But if we do get clearer messaging that the Fed has been behind, and yes, we get into that situation like we saw last year,
where the Fed needs to deliver this emergency 50 basis point cut,
then that is a scenario where you could see some downward pressure on the stock market.
So the risk-reward skew has changed a bit, and it's changed pretty rapidly over the past month. So again, look at
those revisions tomorrow, see what inflation tells us. But even if inflation comes in a bit
stickier, I think it would have to take a massive uptick in inflation for the Fed to really
reconsider that 25 basis point cut. But that being said, it's not a 100% done deal. And you even heard
from some Fed officials saying that they still want to see that inflation
data before deciding which camp they're ultimately in.
Yeah, I think you could throw even another variable into the jobs conversation with the
AI and the amount of leanness a lot of people are trying to get within their companies as
well, right?
Yeah, and younger workers too.
I did a story that published over the weekend about how difficult it's been for college educated new grads to
have jobs to be hired. Now, part of that is AI. The fact that a lot of these entry-level jobs,
they're maybe not as available as they were thanks to AI. But the unemployment rate for workers 16 to 24,
that had 10.5% in August, and it was the first time it's taught that number since the pandemic.
And it's reversing what we've seen in previous years where recent college graduates have
consistently outpaced the broader workforce. And now that's just not the case. So there is this
divergence here. I think AI is part of that story. And the type of jobs that college grads are
applying to, a lot of those white collar jobs in financial services, those industries that normally
you would see strong job growth, that's been a struggle since the pandemic.
And a lot of that has been because there was this over hiring during that time.
And then we saw mass layoffs across the board.
And I think there's still a little bit of a settling down that those industries are currently dealing with.
And then, again, I talked about the tariff uncertainty.
That's still something
that businesses are trying to figure out. There's not only these new technologies like AI,
and they're being pressured by shareholders and the boards of these companies to really make sure
that they're being as efficient as possible and not overhiring and that they're utilizing AI in their everyday work output,
but also now trying to navigate the unpredictability of this administration
and everything going on with trade when things have been changing so rapidly,
that's been weighing on businesses.
And I think now that we're entering the second half of the year,
there's a lot more clarity on that front.
I think we've reached peak uncertainty, but there's still that sort of lag time of how
businesses are having to adapt and really try and make sure that they're holding up
their companies and not falling behind.
So we spoke recently with Glassdoor, and they were saying that confidence has really slipped across
the board. Entry-level workers remaining the least optimistic of the bunch, and that even though
layoffs tend to get the most attention, sluggish hiring, this low-hire, low-fire environment,
that could be just as impactful. And we're seeing that across the board,
even beyond just entry-level workers.
Glassdoor was saying that senior level employees
are having a very difficult time too
because they are very stuck in their current jobs.
They feel like they can't leave.
They feel like they can't grow where they're at.
And they also feel like they can't job hop
as they have been able to in the past.
So when you have workers that are feeling discouraged and stuck, that creates a lot of issues, too.
So the job market is in a very precarious position.
And I think Jerome Powell and the Fed is very aware of that.
And when you lose the job market, there's that ripple effect that you see
throughout the entire economy. And we have had a very solid labor market over the past few years.
So that's something that the Fed certainly doesn't want to happen. But there's just multiple
pressure points coming at the labor market and coming at these companies from all sides here.
So it's just a very difficult environment.
Very interesting times.
Just a quick note here.
So tomorrow at 10 a.m., we will get those non-farm payrolls annual revision that you heard Ali alluding to a little bit there.
Wednesday, CPI as well as a 10-year note auction.
Thursday, CPI with a 30-year bond auction that afternoon. So a lot of things coming
up over the next few days. Allie, appreciate your thoughts. Of course, anyone, feel free to
jump in at any time and would love to have any open dialogue, any thoughts here. I am going to
pass the mic over to Sam Solid and see if you have any thoughts around the current conversation
or anything else that we've had mentioned so far.
Mr. Sam Solid?
Oh, sorry, my bad.
I thought you were asking Al if she had anything else.
Yeah, I mean, the trading talk aside,
focusing a little bit more on the fundamentals, I fundamentals, I see things happening in the market.
I'm looking at it more from a fundamental perspective, not setting aside valuation.
Of course, people want to know, hey, when should I buy a stock?
When should I sell a stock?
And so on.
But the information that I'm providing is more focused on the fundamental, automatic perspective.
So I am bullish NVIDIA.
I am bullish Estera labs and estera labs
actually closed for the first time above 200 bucks um pretty much a 180 since i was trading in the
60s just last april and have been a holder and a heavy buyer this stock sub 100s and i did not think
it was going to come up this much but uh for people that don't know uh estera labs about the
component uh forVIDIA chips,
and seeing that they are continuing or got the green light to sell to China today via H20 lights,
well, I mean, I would say the market already priced that in. They're definitely a big
beneficiary of it. Another beneficiary of selling NVIDIA chips is also Micron. They provide the
high bandwidth memory that gets attached to the stack of the NVIDIA chips themselves,
bandwidth memory that gets attached to the stack of the nvidia chips themselves and i think that
they are a big beneficiary and if if we are to see a continued acceleration of more chips being sent
out especially for blackwell ruben coming up these these high bandwidth memory stacks are going to
continue being in high demand i think micron could could be somewhat undervalued from a forward
basis. Considering the estimates that we do see for their earnings, it's possible they could just
blow those out of the water. I don't have a position in Micron. I am considering a swing
position. I did have one prior, but I had sold when it previously ran up to $128 and then pulled
back, did not reload in those. It is a pretty interesting chart to look at.
Micron's actually heading over here toward its previous all-time highs.
I think that was about $155 or something.
Don't quote me on that.
But as far as the whole AI narrative goes, I'm bullish.
I don't know how anyone can be bearish this entire theme.
You're continuing to see N nvidia gaining more market share
he's going with trump into the uk next week being basically his left-hand man for that on the back
of that you're seeing executives doing jensen wong's legwork by gaining licenses to sell h20
to china we're going to see of course amd to follow that because amd does sell the mi308 chips
to china as well those are the underclocked version of their MI350 and 400 chips.
And you see the news that AVGO Broadcom is building its own AI chip that's being manufactured by TSM and so on.
And sorry, no, OpenAI is outsourcing the designs to Broadcom.
And of course, this is going to provide more upward demand in terms of
the amount of chips are being set out. Yes, on the technical basis, the market looks like it's
slowing down. It's a relatively strike index. I'm sure there's a lot more indicators people
look at. Of course, there's things under the hood, like you have mega caps basically lagging or not
performing as well as the small and mid-cap sectors, especially when you think about mid-cap companies.
Like you had, what was it?
What was the stock that I was looking at?
You had earlier, previously, it's no longer mid-cap anymore, but you had Arista Network
rallying on the back of the network infrastructure for AI build-out coming back.
It's just, it's so hard for me to say, Hey guys, this is the top without thinking like,
okay, well, if this is somehow a local top, I think we're going to go a lot higher from here
where we are today, but it might not be exactly from today. But I think if you look at the market,
maybe six months from now, I think we're going to be a lot higher than we are today.
And the reason why is because unless there's some speculation that everything's going
to top out, it looks like things are still continuing to ramp up. You're hearing constant
earnings blowouts from a lot of software companies that people did expect software to be dead by AI.
And that is definitely not the case. MongoDB re-accelerated its top line for its highest
margin growing sector, which is MongoDB Atlas. And you
saw Snowflip with good earnings. You saw a lot of these company post good earnings where the
narrative was the other side of it. So when you think about it, is narrative really the signal
you want to follow? Or is it the fundamental theme that we are probably not close from over
in this entire AI wave?
I think there's a lot more to go.
Again, can't time exactly when the top of the year, exactly where the bottom is going to be, and so on.
But I can tell you from a fundamental perspective, even looking at previous earnings reports that I've been reading for the last few weeks, which I'm still not done yet, but it's not over.
it's not over. It's a dangerous game to continue calling the top of the market.
It's a dangerous game to continue calling the top of the market.
I've seen it happen over and over and over again, and people get smoked on it, which then,
if we come across this seasonally weak period in September, where it is the weakest month in the
entire year on a historical basis, as someone was saying earlier, if that doesn't happen,
you're going to get a lot of liquidity being forced back into the market because they have to chase performance by the end of the year.
We've seen a lot of undersized positioning since April.
These guys need to catch up.
I'm not saying that they're going to go all in or anything, but we are literally climbing a wall of worry and climbing a melt up right now because that is just what happens when
people are not positioned to the long end or under position.
We looked at the NAIM, which I'm going to talk about during today's stock picks for
the competition, which I rightfully did not win this week, which is okay.
But we've all had somewhat a, what do you call that?
They're cautiously optimistic perspective.
But at the same time, overall, we've all been somewhat bullish, right?
This can continue happening for a long time.
And that is literally the wall of worry you need to climb in the bull market.
When everyone is bullish, everyone, when bears capitulate and everything,
that is when you create a top.
But that is certainly not the case right now.
I think there's a lot of skeptical people out there, including a little bit myself on
the short term.
But the long term, I continue to remain bullish.
It's very hard to see things pull back.
We saw it with Hood pulling back below $100.
People started to become bearish on that.
And look where we closed today.
A new all-time eye in Robinhood for an announced S&P 500 inclusion, which we all knew was going to come anyway.
But that announcement, and they're not included yet.
They're going to be included next Friday.
That announcement, the market is front-running.
You saw the same thing for Apple 11, which has extraordinary margins,
which AOTG, John Tinsman, is longed at in his portfolio or in his ETF.
I'm also longed those two companies.
I've trimmed a little bit off app.
I haven't trimmed any hood.
In fact, I was thinking about adding to it when I was below $100, but I didn't, which
is okay still.
But at the same time, again, calling a top of the market and then liquidating your portfolio
trying to time the market is a very bad idea because then you are essentially saying that this is the top and I will get back in once it pulls back.
If 95% to 99% of people in the world can't do that who are spending billions of dollars trying to create algorithms and models to try to time it and they can't do it, what makes you think that you as a retailer trader could do it?
That is my argument when it comes to it.
I know there's a lot of strategy when it comes to people strategically or tactically position
themselves for a pullback of the market.
And that works.
That certainly works.
But anyone can tell you that timing the market on a long-term consistent basis is a losing
game.
No one has been able to ever do it successfully for
the long period of time. Maybe people get lucky. Maybe people get lucky two, three, four times.
But when you lay those out on a probability basis for a long period of time in cases,
you are in a loser's game. I would say that if you have a longer-term mindset,
if you want to invest for at least three, four or five years, you should not thinking about, okay, guys, okay, I'm going to wait for that 5% pullback to
get into the market.
Because when it pulls a 5%, that's what I'm going to go in.
If your timeframe is for that long, and you're thinking about buying companies like mega
cap companies like Amazon, Google, Microsoft, whatever it is, what is a 5% correction in
the market going to do when your time frame is multiple years?
It's not really going to do anything, especially when people are in their 20s and they think about doing,
they're trying to time the market in their 20s.
That is a loser's game, especially since you have a lot of time before you hopefully actually need that money.
If you're playing with money that you're planning to retire with, it doesn't
matter whether we get a 5% or 10% pullback. Because in 40 years, the market will likely be
higher from today. There is a small chance that it won't be higher than it is today.
But I'll tell you something. If we get a 90% correction from here that a lot of big names
that wrote books and were famous people on Wall Street are calling for, you don't need to worry
about the money brokerage account. You need to worry about surviving. But with that set
aside, we're heading toward a much looser environment when it comes to monetary and
fiscal policy. The government is getting other companies, the dinner you saw last week with all
the CEOs, they're getting all of them to try to spend more money on the US economy.
Trump administration is trying to make trade deals where they get other countries to continue
putting more money into America.
On top of that, there's a lot of onshore demand being pressed by the administration to bring
more money into the U.S. or spending into the U.S., thus creating more jobs.
At the same time, you have the Fed cutting two to three times this year.
How do you be bearish that?
It is so difficult to be bearish that situation.
This isn't last April where we're thinking about constant inflation coming from large
tariffs.
This is the Fed is cutting in September.
They're probably going to cut in November or December.
They're probably going to cut again in 2026 unless we see some bad data.
Very hard to be bearish.
It's like, I don't, I guess it was like a little bit of, it was just like a little bit
of frustration just seeing just people constantly try to call it up.
I'm not saying that anyone in this panel is trying to do it, but just in general, calling
the tops on a long-term portfolio is a losing game.
It is not, it is not fundamentally probable in your perspective or in anyone's favor
to be doing that with the entire portfolio when you're thinking for multiple years. Just wanted
to say that. Tomorrow, we got Rubrik reporting earnings, which is a stock that I've been pretty
bullish on since the 30s. Sitting over here at about 15 times EV to sales, Ford sales, actually.
But we're seeing a little bit
of a run to earnings, which is pretty nice to see. Also, Oracle is going to provide some light
more on the AI infrastructure run. They did pretty much increase their guidance dramatically for not
only next quarter or this year, but also for 2028, I believe, where they're looking on expanding and
growing their AI business multiple times over. So interesting to see any commentary on that from SoftwareCats CEO and Larry Ellison, CTO.
Larry Ellison is the chair of the board.
So when you really think about it, even though SoftwareCats is the CEO,
Larry Ellison is like considered the top of the ship there.
So could it be cool to see some commentary though?
I know a few guys have mentioned Adobe, which is reporting on Thursday afternoon.
You mentioned Larry Ellison.
Don't they report tomorrow as well?
Yeah, so Rubrik and Oracle report on tomorrow after close.
Adobe reports Thursday after close.
Casey Tridge is actually on this this morning.
I'm not sure if anyone else was on it too,
but he was seeing a lot of bullish flows coming into Adobe.
I mean, that stock has just been decimated since its recent highs,
probably about last year.
This is another one of those narrative themes where people think AI is going to destroy
its moat and we don't need to pay thousands of dollars per seat for each license in a
company for the Adobe suite.
And I think that when you think about this company that's been around for nearly four
decades, has been a Wall Street favorite since then um basically expecting a company like that
just fall off a cliff and not figure out a situation that they've been able to figure
out for four decades uh it's kind of a risky position to be taking coming into earnings i
mean it literally just takes an earnings not as bad as expect you could still have a bad earnings
but if it's not as bad as expected it's probably going to run after earnings so we'll continue to
see with that one um lastly uh duolingo, very big fan of this one.
Did more research over the weekend.
May or may not have started the position on that one.
Subscribers would know.
But it's another one of those companies that is basically printing cash, hand over fist.
Their revenue actually did pretty well last quarter, but they did increase their operating
expenses last quarter due to some funding or investments they're putting up front into one of its AI products.
So pretty interested to see how that one's going to turn out. They are working on expanding their
TAM as well. So that's something that a lot of people might not have included in their models
if they are bearish to stock, but still bullish on Duolingo. I think that I'm not going to call
the bottom here because it's in a pretty nasty chart
right now in a downward trend, trading below moving averages and stuff.
And in these times, I don't like to call the bottoms on these if I'm trying to build a
position.
I like to get in nice and slow so that we don't have to worry about calling the absolute
bottom because I'm probably not going to call absolute bottom.
But if you have more of a long-term perspective, again, you don't need to worry about that. So bullish on Duolingo,
no reporting earnings coming up anytime soon. They did just report recently, so it could just take
one catalyst to have that thing turn around, but we'll see what happens with that one.
On top of that, my view, I already gave my view on the fundamental perspective. I already gave
my view on the sentiments as well as the positioning perspective. But overall, my portfolio has just been doing really well today, especially since you had
probably an aggregate of about 8%. No, sorry. What is that? Like 10 to 12% of my entire portfolio
is in app loving and hood. So definitely had a great day today. On top of that, Amazon was up
about 2%. That is about 15% of my portfolio.
Most of that is compounded.
So very nice sitting there, but not looking to make any major sales.
Might have made a trim here and there, but definitely not the time to market, but just
trying to take a little bit of chips off the top as it's appreciated more than 100%.
But overall, though, very hard to be bearish market right now
i mean i i don't know what anyone else can say in the panel obviously short-term traders will
probably know a lot more than me but that that's really all i got to say when it comes to this
oh there you have it um
yeah well a lot of direction a lot of great information there from sam solid appreciate you
sir uh stock talk i haven't heard much from you today yeah what's going on um what a weekend
yeah good day for gavin having both to be uh not on the space to listen to us just epic
collapses by their teams.
But other than that, what's going on?
Sock talk a lot of, uh, a lot of topics to hit on today.
Yeah. Yeah. Um, so I know we don't do shows on Friday,
so I did add two new positions on Friday, last Friday.
I tweeted about both of them. Um, I'll talk briefly about them today.
Uh, my portfolio right now is sitting at 17 positions. So I cut
two last week, added two new ones to replace them, both 4.5% positions on those new ads.
So last week I added, I don't have any semiconductor exposure currently,
and I wanted to get some. So i was doing some research these past few weeks
i had like 10 mid-cap semiconductor names on my list um and i spent most of last week doing
research the name i decided on was amcor tickerR. I posted my tweets about it in the Nest
if you're interested in reading them.
So Amcor is an advanced semiconductor packaging business.
And the United States right now
is making obviously a concerted effort,
the White House especially,
to create a domestic supply chain for semiconductors.
Now, that obviously starts with the fabs, and we have essentially turned Arizona into
Taiwan's semiconductors playground with three facilities under construction and the hope
for two nanometer production in Arizona within the next few years.
Now, that could be delayed by six months or eight months, but within
the next few years, we should be at a point where two nanometer production is possible in Arizona,
whether or not they start it then or not. So in the wake of that, we have to think about the rest
of the semiconductor supply chain. And for those that don't know, OSAT, OSAT, which I've referenced
in the tweets that I put up about this company.
It stands for Outsource Semiconductor Assembly and Test.
And it includes advanced packaging.
Advanced packaging was a big part of the semiconductor conversation in the front half of this year and the back half of last year. And there were a lot of packaging plays that had pretty nice moves, you know 40 50 moves to the upside when that conversation
started happening since then it's sort of been tabled obviously we had the deep seek moment
earlier this year where a lot of these ai stocks got flushed out um and then many of them recovered
since then but amcor i think has a very attractive weekly chart so we'll start there on the technical side. It has had one,
two, three, four, five, six, seven consecutive weeks green and has pushed above its 200 week
moving average now for the first time in a while. Now it was above the 200 week earlier this year
prior to the deep seek sell-off, but the last reclaim from below the 200 week that happened was actually
a long time ago. It was about five years ago. And when that happened, the stock went from 12 bucks
to about 27 bucks in a matter of six or seven months and more than doubled.
This isn't the type of name that's going to move 10 or 12% a day like a lot of the other
mid cap stocks that I get into. But I do think at this
juncture, it's interesting. I think it's hard to make the argument that this is not the leading
OSAP play domestically. And if you do agree with that, then you have to ask yourself,
should it be trading at less than one time sales where it's trading today?
And the short answer from my perspective is in spite of the fact that the pledged to that facility
are significant enough customers that I think the stock is mispriced, in my opinion. I do not think
it should be trading at one-time sales. And the last time I felt this way was about Lyft when it
was $13 and Lyft's basically $18 now. And that happened in a few weeks. I'm not saying this
repricing is going to happen that quickly, but I mean, would anyone scream overvalued if Amcor was trading at 1.5X sales, which is a 50%
move from here, or 2X sales, which is a double from here? Like, would anyone look at Amcor and
say, oh my God, this company's extremely overvalued? I don't think so. You know, I mean,
you're talking about a company that has
pen on paper partnerships with three of the biggest companies in the world. Like, you know,
a lot of a lot of semiconductor companies, especially in the advanced packaging or OSAT
areas, or if they're picks and shovels, or they're in the periphery of the supply chain,
they like to flex partnerships, meaningless partnerships, right? They like to say like, oh, we're using
Nvidia's hopper chips to do this. And they paint it as an Nvidia partnership. Or they say,
you know, we're using one of Apple's supply chain partners to build this. And then they paint it as
an Apple partnership, even though it's nothing to do with Apple. Like in Amcor's case, Apple has
not only invested in their facility.
So Apple's made a direct investment.
They did not disclose the size of the investment,
but that PR came out on August 25th.
So Apple's investing in their
semiconductor packaging facility,
and they've also committed to be the first
and largest customer of the company.
I mean, that has to lead to some sort of revenue increase.
Like the idea that that's going to lead to a flat year over year revenue profile makes no sense to me.
It's the biggest it's going to be the biggest packaging OSAP facility in the country.
more favoritism, if you will, both from the regulatory side, the approval side, and from
other large customers who want to flex their U.S. investment, right? You think about the
commitments that Taiwan Semi has made to U.S. production, those have to come in a lot of
different ways. You look at Apple's commitment to U.S. production, right? We talked about making
Apple making iPhone glass here. Them committing to be a customer for domestic semiconductor
packaging can also fit into that bill of the commitments they made.
So you have Apple as the first and largest customer of the facility.
You have Broadcom naming this company their best supplier in 2024.
Broadcom's AI chip business is expanding to open AI.
And on top of all of that, you have Taiwan Semi helping them build the OSAT facility.
And Taiwan Semi is obviously the blue chip when it comes to semiconductors. So I think the amount
of backing this company has from three multi-trillion dollar companies, and it's sitting
at a 6 billion market cap, trading at less than 1x sales with a 2x capacity expansion on the horizon
coming in 2028, stocks should trade higher. So yeah, I took a position in Amcor
on Friday. It hasn't moved much. It was up 0.7% today. It was up 1.3% on Friday. So I'm up a tiny
bit on it, but it's not like it's run away or exploded like a lot of the other stocks I've
talked about. So for what that's worth, I do find Amcor from a weekly technical perspective to be very compelling.
And I also think the story is frankly mispriced, you know, and there's going to be the detractors, the bear case, I guess, or what you would say is that the company is not growing enough to justify a higher than 1x sales multiple.
I think when you put in context the facility that they're working on and the partners that are backing that facility, I think that you can easily refute that argument.
So, yeah, that's Amcor.
I also added DreamFinder's Home on Friday morning, ticker DS8.
I saw that post, too.
That was a good dive there into that one.
I like that one.
Yeah, so i wanted
to get a little bit of home building exposure and illogical is really he's not up here anymore
he's really bullish on home builders i'm not as gung-ho as he is but i do want to i did want to
get a little bit exposure so i wanted to get at least one position in the space i looked through
a few last week i liked bldr i know bldr is sort of like the the crowd favorite and and it's
performed very well i think the start the chart looks phenomenal still on BLDR.
So I don't knock people for liking that one.
Another one is, what is it, GRBK, Green Brick Partners.
That's an Einhorn position.
That's another one.
The chart looks great.
So I looked at those, and I looked at a few others.
So DreamFinders is, and I posted this tweet, I pinned it at the top
as well, if you guys want to read the little paragraph I wrote about it. But they posted a
TTM trailing 12 month revenue growth of 20%. They're the fastest growing home builder in the
United States. Stocks trading at a little over 0.5X sales. So the company does significantly more revenue than their market cap. And they're
trading at a 9p. So I mean, is that a crazy financial profile for a home builder? No,
home builders don't trade at crazy financial metrics. But the stock's not expensive, right?
You're growing at 20%. You're trading at 0.x sales. You're trading at a 9 9p i mean by by no metric is that like disgustingly expensive
um and so and i checked it out and i look at the volume profile on this thing it hasn't been public
for a long time but i pulled up the weekly chart you know it's only been public since 2021 and
the volume profile for the lifetime of the stock is accumulative like sometimes you'll look at a
stock for an entry and you'll be like oh Oh, I like the volume profile over the past one month. Right. And to me, that's giving
me more confidence in my entry here because there's clear accumulation on the stock over
the past one month. I tend to do that a lot. I got to look at volume profile a lot. And so
sometimes what I'll do is I'll say, okay, the volume profile is accumulative over the past
month, the past two months, but how does it look for the past year?
Or how does it look for the past two years?
Like how have institutions been treating this stock?
And I look at DreamFinders and I'm like, dude, there's never been a net seller for any significant period of time for the lifetime of the stock.
Like I can't find one volume bar on this thing.
Like you can just pull up the dfs dfh chart
like i can't find one volume bar that like all the big volume is by volume right like you draw
if you draw a line here on the top of the range let's say at four million volume would do a
straight line across the whole volume profile for the last five years. The only thing you'd see above that 4 million volume mark is green.
You'd see one red candle, and that's in late 2024.
There was one high volume sell candle where you had 15 million shares traded.
Other than that, for the lifetime of the stock, there's been no meaningful distribution.
That is bullish.
There's no other way to read that, right?
That means that for the lifetime of the stock, there have been significantly more net buyers
than sellers.
That's not a bad thing.
And then you have a weekly chart that I think looked excellent on Friday and now is obviously
a little bit extended because we had an 8% move to the upside on Friday.
The Friday entry that we got was beautiful because I got it in the morning. And, you know, it kept ripping
during the day on Friday. And part of that is because the stocks held 18% short. So any kind
of move in in XHB, the home builders ETF, any kind of significant move there, the stock's going to
push because it's 18% short. It's the fastest growing home builder. I mean, these guys priced
300 million of convertible notes, the stock didn't even budge. It was down fastest growing home builder. I mean, these guys priced 300 million of convertible
notes. The stock didn't even budge. It was down like half a percent and it flipped back to green.
That's bullish, right? Same thing with AMTR. Actually, they announced a $400 million
convertible notes offering. The stock didn't even go red today on that. Like not at all. I mean,
I think of this morning, it went red by like half a percent and then went back to green.
So you like to see that you when stocks
don't get sold on newly written convertible debt or newly written direct offerings when stocks don't
get sold on that that's bullish um and both of these names didn't budge on on brand new offerings
and honestly i was kind of annoyed because they both announced offerings right after i entered
them but neither of them went down so you, you know, I'm fine with that.
But yeah, those are the two new positions,
Amcor and DreamFinder's Homes.
They're pretty small positions for me currently.
They're both sub 5% positions.
DreamFinder's getting a little closer to 5% because of that 8% move that it had on Friday.
But yeah, I like both those stocks.
I like both the charts.
I like both the stories.
I like both the valuations at the current jun stories. I like both the valuations, uh, at the current juncture.
Um, so we'll see how they play out.
Obviously, as always, guys, I am a risk tolerant, cautious trader.
So if these things break down, don't be surprised if I cut them.
These aren't positions I'm married to.
I would say on Amcor, I am willing to be a little bit more patient because I think there's
a chance that stock gets repriced over a six to eight month period as opposed to more quickly.
With DreamFinders, I'm really playing the house home building momentum more so than anything.
And so, you know, if momentum dies and home builders or XHB starts breaking down, I'll be I'll cut it, DFH without, you know, any kind of hesitancy.
without, you know, any kind of hesitancy.
So a little more patient, I guess, with Amcor
because I like that story a little better
in terms of the broader semiconductor industry.
But DreamFinders, if I am going to pick a home builder,
that's my favorite one based on the research that I did.
So that's the one I'm rocking with currently.
But yeah, those are two new positions.
Like I said, I opened those Friday morning.
So they are up a little bit from where I bought them,
but they're not up a crazy amount.
DreamFinders is up like a little bit more than Amcor. But yeah, those are two new ones. So I want to mention those to you guys. Obviously, nice day for me today. Robinhood,
which is top three position for me, was up 16%, which is awesome to see. I've been in Robinhood
since under $20. My cost base is 1973. So I'm up almost 500% on Robinhood shares now.
So that's a hell of a return in just a couple of years of investing in that stock.
But yeah, I'm up 494.8% now on Robinhood shares.
And I'm still not a seller, believe it or not.
I have huge confidence.
Robinhood's management team, they've just been killing it.
And I'm happy to keep owning that stock, especially considering my cost basis is so nice day for robin hood lyft continues to impress i think versus the rest
of the market you know a lot of people thought i was crazy when i was buying this at the lows
below all the moving averages at 13 but um i just really felt that the valuation was compelling and
now what you've seen in the last three weeks on Lyft is a multiple expansion and the sort of re-rating that's begun here on Lyft. Stocks have gone from 13 to 17 in short
order. I mean, it's been one, two, three, four, five, six, seven, eight, nine, 10, 11, 12, 13,
like 16 days. Stocks from 13 to 1770. That's a big move. And Lyft posted another 6.3% day to day.
I think float dynamics are changing here. You have a retirement of class b shares on the horizon which is going to make mean dilution uh a little bit
softer uh you're looking at the stock pushing above that 1750 mark today which is a nice spot
volume profile is improving here you look at the volume profile going back to may much much prettier
than it was for the prior three years really i mean you look at the volume profile going back to May, much, much prettier than it was for the prior three years, really.
I mean, you look at the volume profile since May on this name, it's prettier than it's been a while.
So I think you continue to rely on that and signs of accumulation here, signs of relative strength, signs of building on both the daily, weekly and monthly.
We have that 200 week breakout getting confirmed here on Lyft as well.
Pushed into it and over it last week. So we hit that 1830 spot. And then today you're getting a
nice catapult off that 200-week moving average for Lyft. Keep in mind, this is the first time
Lyft has ever been above its 200-week moving average. That 200-week moving average formed
back in early 2023. Stock was trading at 18 bucks back then. That 200-week moving average popped up
at around 40 bucks. So the stock was dramatically below that 200-week when it popped up.
Since then, stocks consolidated for the last two years or so in this base. And what's happened
since then? Well, that 200-week moving average has come all the way down.
And what happened last week? We broke through it for the first time ever.
So Lyft, you're getting a 200-week break for the first time ever, which, I mean, I don't think I need to tell anyone that that's bullish.
But speaking of 200-week breakouts, Fubo, which is another name we've been talking about, began making its move last week.
I know this one has tested people's patience, but we remain long on this one.
200-week breakout on Fubo last week,
nine-week EMA crossing over the 200.
This is the first 200-week breakout for Fubo in four years.
And, I mean, that's one hell of a base on Fubo. If you're scrolling out and looking at this thing,
look at the weekly, look at the monthly,
and look at the consolidation on this thing going back to 2022, really June, July 2022, where it flattened out down at that $2 spot.
It's now coming back above the moving average for the first time in years.
Looks interesting, heading into that September 30th merger date and showing a lot of relative strength these last three or four sessions.
So another nice session for Fubo.
Energy Fuels, ticker UUUU.
We remain long on this one.
That one is continuing to build beautifully, holding the 9 EMA.
Actually went red today and then caught the 9 EMA at the lows and then pushed back to green.
That stock closed today, about 3%.
Amazon acting very well today as well. at the lows and then push back to green that stock closed today about three percent amazon acting
very well today as well materion just trading in a world of its own continues to consolidation has
been absolutely gorgeous on materion for the last two weeks you know in this 110 to 113 range this
stock looks ready to break the local highs once again and trend higher it's another one of those
names that's you know trading at 1x sales ish i have another one of those names that's trading at 1X sales-ish.
I have a lot of those names in my portfolio. Right now, I have seven names in my portfolio,
all of which I think are thematically relevant that are all trading at 1X sales or less.
And those are Huntington Ingalls, Lyft, Amcor, AMKR, the one I just touched on earlier, Penn Gaming, PNN,
DFH, StreamFinders Homes, Materion, MTRN, and Fubo, F-U-B-O. Those seven are all trading at
or less than one-time sales with strong technical setups in thematically relevant industries.
I don't like to be dramatic, but i think all things being equal all seven of those
stocks could double not immediately but you know in over the course of the next year i wouldn't be
surprised if a handful of those stocks double maybe all of them but yeah that's uh that's my
thinking those are some names some new names i added stuff that's my portfolio i haven't been
as active lately as i have been earlier in the year and that's my question
yeah by design that that piece makes sense for sure obviously the market i mean you look the
last four weeks we've really gone anywhere the smp's at a two percent range there's been some
obviously individual names and winners there uh how many positions are you running right now it
seems like you've added a few yeah 17 currently i'd like to be at sub 15 by
the end of the year there's no guarantees that'll happen if there's stuff i want to hold on to but
i'd like to be at sub 15 by the end of the year it kind of gives me puts me in a position to add
new stuff into next year if i want um you know what i will say is is a lot of people like to
paint me as a trader but i'm not really as high turnover as a lot of people like to paint me as a trader, but I'm not really as high
turnover as a lot of the other guys on Twitter. Like, you know, like logical, for example,
who's great and he's doing great this year. Like he's very high turnover, right? Like he
closes positions a lot, opens them back up, gets in, in and out of positions. Like I don't really
do that. Like I, I hold stuff for multiple reasons. A, because I am a swing and positional trader by nature, but B,
the tax implications also. Considering the amount my portfolio grows on a year-on-year basis,
the way I treat my positions gives me huge tax advantages, right? Because I'm not rolling out
options constantly. We were talking about options rolling the other day, right? Like Jaguar was up here. I'm not, you know, Jaguar made some great points. There
are people that love to roll options. Part of the reason I don't is the tax implications,
right? Like I'd rather hold deep in the money contracts in those scenarios because I don't
necessarily want to be a seller and then have to pay that tax burden either. So from a tax
standpoint, I think it's beneficial as well. And from a peace of mind standpoint, it's beneficial to me as well.
Like I stick with the names that I know well, that I understand.
I know the technical structure well.
I understand the companies.
I understand the industries.
I know management at these companies well.
I know their competitors well.
I know their relative peer valuations well.
Like I just have a good understanding of everything I own. Like you could, you could
pull up any of the 17 stocks I own and say, can you talk about it for 30 minutes? And I could
talk about it for 30 minutes, you know, and I'm not like touting myself as like, Oh, I could,
I'm a smart guy. No, no, no. That's not the point of me saying that. The point of me saying is that,
is that that's why I'm always chill about my positions.
Like that's why I'm never in a panic or like that's why I never get up here and tell people like, oh, guys, you should be selling everything or like you should be chasing this.
I'm just always on an even keel because I understand what I own very, very well.
And when you're when you're in that position, it just brings you unbridled confidence and you can navigate the markets much more easily and you get less gray hairs.
You hang out during the day and just not have to look at your positions every two seconds and worry about what might or might not happen because you know the thesis.
You're like, hey, I'm in this stock because of this reason, this reason, and this reason.
in this region. These are the peers that I'm watching. You know, this is the thematic.
These are the peers that I'm watching.
This is the theme or this is the industry that I'm watching. You know, I'm paying attention to
the news flow in that industry. I'm making sure the environment is still catalyst rich and that
there's, you know, reasons to bid up those stocks. Once that stuff starts disappearing,
it affects my confidence and my conviction on those
names too, right? Like my confidence and conviction doesn't purely come from some,
you know, dissertation I write to myself or, or something that an LLM tells me. That's not where
all of my conviction comes from. My conviction comes from a confluence of multiple factors on
every position, right? Like there's no position where I ignore the technical structure,
no matter how, like centrist energy, right? LEU, which has been one of my highest conviction
positions for the entire year. We wrote it from 99, you know, stocks trading 200 plus an hour,
it got as high as 260. As much as I loved that stock, if the weekly chart had broken down
at some point during the year, I would have sold it.
Right. Like I would have been a seller, even though I loved the company and loved the stock and loved the thesis. The weekly chart didn't break down, thankfully, which is why I was able
to hold it for that more than a double. But the same thing goes for Nebius, right? Or the same
thing goes for Kratos or the same thing goes for for any of these stocks that I talk about all the
time that are high conviction positions for me that I've owned for a long time that I'm now up hundreds of percent on.
The only reason I was able to stay in those stocks is because all of my factors of confluence stayed in favor.
Right. The fundamental stories kept improving.
The technical structure held intact.
The themes remained relevant and they continued to get new PRs and
catalysts added to those themes. Those are the things I want to see. I want to see a continued
catalyst rich environment. I want to see maintained technical structure. And I want to see a fundamental
or thematically driven story that stays fresh, that stays intact, right? I don't want to see something come out
that hurts the thematic relevancy of a stock.
That's a situation where I can become a seller,
even if all of those other factors are intact, right?
Or, you know, maybe the thematic factor's intact
and maybe the, you know, the fundamentals are intact,
but maybe the chart breaks down
and I become a seller for that reason.
you know, I try to monitor all of those aspects of everything I own and then make informed position management decisions based on the weight of the evidence, not just based on how I feel.
You know, and I think that's where a lot of people make mistakes about position management is they
are convinced that they are smarter than what the market is telling them, that they are smarter than what the volume and what the price action
and what the fundamentals and what the earnings results are telling them. Like once you start
believing that you're smarter than the data that's in front of your face, that's where conviction
becomes arrogance and you mistake it for conviction and you lose. And that's like the
humbling moment for a lot of traders, right? Especially when you're on a hot streak, which a
lot of people have been on these last few years, because it's been a relatively easy market.
For those that are on a hot streak, that's especially when it's humbling is because
you're on a hot streak. You feel like you can't lose. You feel like everything you pick goes up. And then you go super heavy size into a position that you maybe didn't do enough work on or maybe don't understand well enough.
And you get burned because you refuse to acknowledge the weight of the evidence or you refuse to to factor in new data that's that's coming into the picture.
Right. And this applies to everything. This doesn't just apply to the thematic trades. It doesn't just apply to the earnings driven trades. It doesn't even just
apply to like the rate cut driven stories, like your home builders or biotechs. It applies to all
of them because in many of these cases, when you're looking at individual stocks, yeah, rising
tide lifts all boats. If you have a hot theme, you're probably going to catch a bit under some
of these names, but it doesn't mean that you can escape the individual stock consequences. Right.
Like every individual stock has its own properties. They all have different debt profiles.
They all have different revenues versus earnings. They all have different levels of relevancy to these themes. Right.
Sometimes you look at thematic stocks and you have some stocks in the periphery who are trading in favor because they're thematically relevant.
But then you look at the details and you're like,
dude, these guys are barely theme relevant.
You know, maybe 5% to 10% of their revenue is relevant.
So trying to keep all those factors in play
and be mindful of all those things is important.
But yeah, like I said, a couple new positions I added, like I mentioned.
If you want to go look at them, I pinned the stuff in the top,
pinned two tweets in the top about those two new positions.
And then we'll touch on whatever happens the rest of the week but i know amp has a
hard cut off here so we'll see you guys tomorrow same time same place boom there you go great
rundown from stock talk make sure you're following stock talk all the other great speakers that were
up here on this space the whole thing is recorded of course so you can listen back to any of it if you missed it. And as he was just saying, we do have a hard cutoff
right here at the top of the hour for our stock picks of the week show over on Wolf Financial.
So we'll see you guys over there for that here in just a moment. Thank you.
