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STOCK MARKET TALK
Recorded: Aug. 28, 2025 Duration: 2:22:57Space Recording
Full Transcription
Hello, hello.
What is up, everybody?
What is up?
What is up?
Another day on stocks, on spaces.
Another day in the stock market.
Apple.
Apple.
Dude, you could do that so much better.
Stocks on spaces.
There you go.
Now we have it.
Come on.
What is up, YouTube?
YouTube?
Stocks on spaces.
There you go.
We are here.
Apple is leading.
Market leading Apple is doing great.
NVIDIA, fantastic earnings, was down yesterday.
We're just down 0.2% right now.
MAG7 across the board, pretty green.
BMNR, I've made it into a large position.
I'm slightly red.
Would be cool if it went up, but 47 around is the cost basis.
Shout out to BMNR.
I want to have an ethereum
conversation at some point on here talk about stable coins and uh a couple conversations at
some point that might be for another day though when i'm looking across some of the other names
there is a lot of green a lot of green across a lot of stuff uh not everything but
Not everything, but pretty much everything in the portfolio is green.
SoFi is looking nice today, up around 4%.
My guess is, based on what I'm seeing, that also rate cut predictions are also kind of increasing here.
Kind of.
And then there's today so options Mike you seem to want to get active in here
how you doing sir Evan I'm good I'm just trying to help you out here man I
know you miss him I'm trying to fill in the other piece of that for you just
trying to hang out and help you out.
I enjoy it.
I enjoy it.
I was connecting my headphones.
That's why there was no retort to your kind comments.
You know, this market is, it just wants to go up, right?
It doesn't matter what.
So how about we all address here quickly the elephant in the room, which is NVIDIA earnings, which were – they were good.
They were not spectacular.
They were good, right?
They beat marginally.
They raised guidance marginally.
But it was fine.
It wasn't bad.
It wasn't the blowout people were looking for now i think
that could change if they start selling blackwell chips to it into china right the the ai chips
we'll see if that actually happens or not that's a another thing uh but you know the market mark
you know it went green the market took everything as tried's buys a new all-time high um i don't know about you bud but i mean this is a melt-up market until something bothers it
and what that's going to be i couldn't tell you you know what i mean when you nothing bothers this
market nothing if it does it's for a couple minutes 10 15 minutes and it's like oh yeah okay
that's we're done with that so what's
today been about you know to me um today's been about just making trades i grabbed snow calls on
the open made really nice money there got out way too early but made nice money also trim some of my
long-term snow position which i've had now since last earnings uh uh trade google for a nice trade, trim some of my Amazon calls,
trim some of my Apple calls,
still in those.
I mean, the market is rotating now.
It's rotating to different names.
Instead of playing the same names,
it's now rotating around.
It is overall a healthy market
that's not running away from anybody.
And, you know, when I hear people
get really bearish,
I look at them and say, well, what's going to make that happen? Because something
has to step in here and make it happen. That said, you know, when you look around, IWM
had a down day. The financials are kind of flat today. Energy is still breaking out.
It's kind of a mixed bag today, as M would say, right? I'm trying to fill that M-P roll
here for you. You know, it's a very narrow market in terms of what they want and what they want to be in it but
if you're in the areas they want it's good you know something else to look at crowd which was
down what 13 last night is now highs of day and green and it just kept running i mean they you
know crowd guided down and they still came running back for it. It tells you this market is, it doesn't care.
That's why I'm still sitting in my very heavy in Amazon stock
because it just doesn't care.
How's that?
Does that get us off to a good start?
Yes, sir, it does.
I appreciate you.
Oh, I appreciate you too, man man we got to get together one of these
days for drinks by the way we look way too close together yeah we should do it soon but it's truth
fully who knows how long i'll be in new york oh you want to be moving to south america
it depends on what the definition of that is um Puerto Rico. Yeah, maybe. Possibly.
We'll see.
We'll see where the
wind ends up taking me. I also have to get my
account up here, but that was a good intro, Mike.
I appreciate you.
Do we have Brian land up here?
Let's show you as a listener.
no worries all right stock geek I'd love to bring you into the conversation
No worries.
All right, Stock Geek,
I'd love to bring you into the conversation.
hey gents what's going on how are you doing sir doing well doing well pretty quiet market day but
overall yeah probably gonna be quiet tomorrow too heading into uh the holiday weekend but i think we get some pretty exciting stuff as we get into september october um riding the cannabis
name still for good profits uh still haven't even gotten the regulatory catalyst there just a lot
of rumors a lot of whispers but uh that trade's still intact um other than that you know there's
not a whole lot of new stuff there's some uh stocks out there doing more
work on um tempest stratasys uh under armor with a bunch of insider buying stuff like that just kind
of one-offs um always looking for the exciting off the beaten ideas as you know um but not a report on that front at the moment.
Sorry, I got the background noise going on.
But yeah, thank you, Stocky, for that.
Brian, I see you talking a little too.
Yeah, I mean, look.
Sorry. All right, Brian. sorry all right brian i can't hear brian on my end yeah can you guys hear me now there you go
sorry um i was just saying that uh stock geek which sorry it's weird to call you that but
that's your name and mike covered everything pretty much you know this i've been telling my
subscribers last couple days that there is nothing technically wrong with this market like i look at
the charts i look at the technicals and i can't find anything wrong i mean maybe if you want to
get really pedantic you say maybe the volume wasn't as great on some days as you'd like it to
be but it just but my prime is the it's the end of August. Is volume anything ever special here going into this?
I mean, I think you're dead on.
What is it?
You never have volume this time of year.
Yes, well, that's what I said.
If I had to pick something, if I was being pedantic, that's what I would pick on.
But otherwise, I wouldn't because – and even when you have periods of the year when there is larger volume, like price always trumps volume.
You want to see volume expand with price breakouts, but if it doesn't and price keeps going,
then it doesn't really matter, does it? So you're right about this market melting up.
There's a lot of names out there that look great. Stock Geek mentioned Stratasys, which
the beautiful Debbie Wasserman Schultz apparently got some insider buying on.
And that's looking good.
I think Oklo or Oklo, I never know how to say it.
I tweeted out yesterday that when it pulled back and it held the all-time high VWAP,
I thought that was really a good sign.
And today it's up 7%.
Apple's joining in.
I mean, yeah, the pot names have just been running like crazy.
And some of these things are up 400%, 500% from the recent lows.
And we still haven't gotten the catalyst.
That's the thing, right?
I wonder if it's going to be one of those things where when we do get the catalyst, whatever that will be, if that will be at least a temporary sell the news.
I don't know.
These things have been so beaten up that they might just go to the moon if we get a catalyst.
So everything looks good.
There's a nice little pullback on Tesla.
Yeah, I'm with you, Evan.
BMNR is the only thing I could complain about today.
Are you in?
Listen, I truthfully bought too much BMNR.
Or not enough?
We'll see. We'll see.
Time will tell.
Yeah, so I am, and I also sold January 30 and 25 puts.
I just deduced it a little bit.
So, yeah, we'll see.
Are you in New York as well?
Am I in New York as well? Am I in New York?
In New York, it's very difficult to stake and get the kind of yield and stuff like that.
So honestly, there's just certain advantages.
No, I'm in Huntington Beach out in Southern California.
In fact, Future Proof is going to be out here in about a week.
So if anyone listening is going to be at Future Proof.
Yes, sir.
Who said that?
Who's me?
Gav.
Oh, Gav.
Cool.
It'll be great to see you.
Yep.
I'll be out there at Future Proof.
Looking forward to it.
You going to speak, Brian?
Nope.
Not speaking.
Just hanging out.
Got to get you on stage one of these days.
Yeah.
It'll be a good time, though.
I'm looking forward to Future Proof as well.
Getting out there.
Huntington Beach, California. Recommend it recommend it to people ticket prices go up tomorrow if you haven't bought
yours yet and no i don't get any kickback uh great stuff hey brian real quick question for you i know
that you are just covering a few items there uh obviously spy hitting all time highs today coming
off of nvidia earnings yesterday i know you're more on the tech in the short term,
but overall looking back through this earnings season,
any big takeaways from you?
I mean, one of the takeaways,
so it seems like one of the great things
about having a community, as you know,
is you have lots of eyes on the market.
And so I'll be in my Discord
and I'll just have somebody say,
oh my God, so-and-so's up 16%
or so-and-so is up 20%,
you know, just big moves on beaten down names on earnings. But what is notable, I think,
is they're not giving it back. Like sometimes you get a stock that's been beat up, it has good
earnings, it gets a big crazy pop, and then it retraces and it just tells you, well, that was
maybe short sellers covering and there's no new buying coming in.
Most of these things that have popped like that have continued to move higher.
So, you know, which from a technical standpoint means it's good.
So it has to be good from a fundamental standpoint, I would imagine.
Yeah, the fundamentals underlying certainly seem pretty positive.
And, you know know the giants that are
carrying right nvidia makes up a large percentage of spy and qqq and even though nvidia not necessarily
having you know a stellar day today by any means uh we're still seeing everything hold up really
nicely and it's only down 82 cents so it's not bad there at all. Yeah. Yeah. I think the technical action in NVIDIA is
amazing post earnings. I actually tweeted out a little primer on how to get in it right now,
if you wanted to on Twitter recently, but just one last thing on fundamentals. And this is why
I just, I don't pay attention to them. You have a company like Oklo or Oklo that people just keep
beating up saying there's no earnings. There's no earnings, there's no earnings coming. Mark doesn't seem to care, right? This thing has gone right off
its 50-day moving average at 64 and runs straight up to 78. I don't care if they have earnings or
not. The stock can make you money. And I'm too stupid to know how earnings play in or if someone's
expanding their earnings or if they're contracting or if they're year over year. So I just, I look at what I know, which is these little lines and
dots on a chart. I know when price breaks a moving average, but I don't know when the company's going
to have a new product or a new expansion in their earnings multiples. Understood. Understood. Yeah.
I mean, it makes more sense with what you're doing to look at more of
those short-term technicals but to still maybe be aware of the earnings right and what's happening
there and when they're upcoming and just knowing the dates and all that stuff 100 you can't ignore
them and and don't get me wrong i love to have a great fundamental narrative that coincides with
great technicals it's just that when those two diverge usually if you ifides with great technicals. It's just that when those two
diverge, usually if you ignore the technicals, you're putting yourself at risk. So is it
Oclo or Oclo? Do we know? I want to get this straight here.
The funny thing, I think it's Oclo, but the funny thing about it is it's pre-revenue. It doesn't
even, I mean, it's right. It's right. The only thing you can even trade it on would be technicals.
I don't even know fundamentals wise what you could even trade it on yeah well you could trade it on
the the progression of their their license oh sure milestones yeah all that yeah i mean i i agree
with you guys on the idea that the smr plays are really hard to value generally speaking but
i mean that's what they're trading on right now. And that's what the differentiations in their valuations are trading on. Like you look at Oclo, SMR, NNE,
the incremental differences in their valuation are largely driven by how far along they are in
the licensing process. The same thing goes for the pre-merger SPACs, like HOND is trading at a
higher premium than GSRT because they're much further along in the licensing process.
higher premium than GSRT because they're much further along in the licensing process.
And on top of all of that, there have also been seven projects that have been explicitly
named by the White House as SMR projects that are going to be supported by the White House.
And those stocks are trading at a premium.
And Oklo owns two of those projects.
So yeah, I mean, these are speculative stocks, but some are less speculative than others,
really, I think.
And that's where the premium curve shifts with those.
I would be willing to bet they'll have a 50 to 60 percent drawdown in the next two to three years.
But when that happens, anyone's guess.
Yeah, exactly. Yeah, they will. They will. They will.
I mean, even even even if you were to assume these names were commercialized, in some cases, it's still hard to justify a $10 or $12 billion valuation, right?
Like, how profitable will these businesses really even be?
Like, SMR builders, we don't know, right?
Maybe $12 billion might be a rich valuation, even if they were already doing business, which they're not.
So, yeah, you guys are totally on point with the thinking around that.
But, you know, what's up more than Oclo today?
My nuclear name, LEU. And that is a revenue producing name and that is a national asset and so you can you can find names and themes that do have real value it doesn't have to be
that they're cheap on an earnings basis but they have real value in other ways right and
like in the case of centrists as i've said many times they're the only under uranium and richer in the entire nation
and so that gives them value and that gives them a relative strength bid even on a today like today
where nuclear is hot like that's the hottest nuclear stock so yeah smr is very speculative
but there are some nuclear plays i think where there is real value i I think that me and Evan were actually looking at that one
on a live stream earlier today and digging into it a bit as well.
I'm not sure if Evan took a position or not,
but it was something that we were talking about.
I see a hand up and some waving from StocksNight,
but what's going on?
Hey, I'm sorry.
I was nothing. I didn't know my hand was still up um i wanted to drop some
comments earlier when we were talking about bmr but um i don't want to completely let's bring it
back to bmr let's let's talk about that i literally just talked about like 30 minutes on a live stream
with evan he's obsessed with it bmr is now evan's largest single stock position. Whoa, that's crazy. Wow. Well, I'm sure Evan saw today that
Kathy Wood bought 339,000 shares of BMNR, which I think that she still will continue to add more
if we saw BMNR continue to dip. But on the crypto side of things, we saw BMNR also purchased 78,791 Ethereum today. I have to say I do own some shares as well.
I think that this Tom Lee treasury could be something pretty big,
especially if he is following the MicroStrategy blueprint.
But honestly, I'm just very excited about it as well.
Any other thoughts on BMNR?
Wolfie, Stocky?
I mean, I've been telling them
that I've been off the DMNR train
since middle of August
when it failed that $60-some level.
Not a fan until it breaks out
of the downtrend that it's in.
I'm going to say failure's not an end,
just a building block.
Yeah, it's just...
You're not wrong, just early.
Yeah, no, so I'm not a fan until it breaks out,
but really the Oklo Oklo.
I mean, you still have people who call it NVIDIA
and people who call it NVIDIA, right?
So I don't think you're going to get any resolution there for a few years.
There's a few of those for sure in the market.
Options Mike.
Yeah, I thought I'd give you a quick thing. I don't think it doesn't matter who it is. It's BMNR or SPET or MSTR or DJT. I think this has gotten diluted. That's why we're not seeing any
of them run. I think that everybody trying to become an MSTR
has diluted this and just changed
the whole profile.
I don't want to be in any of them. I'm still in IVIT,
but I don't want to be in any of those type
of names right now until something changes.
I agree there.
Can I tell you something, Mike? My question would be
how much have you actually
looked into...
Sorry, headphones died. How much have you
actually looked into BMNR and the Ethereum treasuries and maybe how they're a little
bit different? I understand it. It's just the market no longer cares. And that's my perspective,
right? Price action's king. And at this point, it's gotten very diluted and the market's like,
yeah, we don't really care
anymore because we can buy ivit we get so much crypto exposure elsewhere it's just not as
important to them as it used to be a couple months ago there's like two cents there's like there's
like 80 i think 80 uh ethereum treasuries now yeah so you have to wash out, let's say of those 80, at least 65 of them, right?
They have to wash.
I would say 75.
I understand.
At least, at least like I'm with you.
I think you have to wash out more, but I'm saying at least wash out like 65 of them.
And market has to understand that like those have no prospect. Right.
And then from there, that's when like the base can happen again.
But you can make it a lot dumber than that.
Just draw the trend lines rejected.
Both of them have rejected their trend line, you know, pretty much perfectly the entire run up and back down.
and back down.
So as soon as it breaks out of the trend line,
BMNR, for example,
basically right now,
trend's basically at $50,
breaks $50,
it'll break out of this downtrend.
You know, break and hold that downtrend,
and you might be back on for a trade.
But until then, I'm not interested.
I think the difference with BMNR
is obviously the firepower
and the names that are associated, right?
You also got Tommy Lee in there so you also got tom you got
tommy lee in there right yeah you got peter teal right you got kathy wood and you know there's this
look my i'm an old school guy i think all these things are going to explode one day
and and go to zero but i said that about crypto and that hasn't happened either right
um but here's the thing at some point when you get enough adoption,
like I don't know, how many crypto coins are there now?
A gazillion.
The reason any of those would go up these days,
there's no fundamental thing.
There's no technical thing.
It's just basically has the story rotated to that.
Is that the hot commodity?
Now, BMNR was hot, cooled off, got kind of hot again.
And so the question is, where is it in that hot cycle?
Are there still other things that are going to drop that are going to make it the go-to Ethereum play?
But in terms of the mechanics of an Ethereum treasury, I mean, I feel like we're looking at a derivative on a derivative.
So here's what I want to say, though, Mike.
One thing that's different with Ethereum treasury companies
and the Bitcoin one is Ethereum throws off a yield if you stake it.
So let's say Ethereum stays at its current price
and BMNR holds the amount of Ethereum that it has.
They will be throwing off like $300 million of net income this year.
So that's one thing and that
doesn't happen with mst as much and then don't think the market cares okay but here's the thing
that fine whatever i'm curious it will care at some point i think yes but not here maybe and
here's the other thing from that that tom lee interview on the compound he did last week
my understanding at least the way he framed it is they basically have a put at 35 on Ethereum.
Right. So if that's the case, that gives you some downside protection against the dividend.
Right. Because that's that's the rub. Right. People, oh, I bought a dividend.
You know, it's thrown off a 5 percent dividend and the stock drops 25 percent.
So if you've got a floor in there and it's got a dividend dividend that gives you a little bit more, I guess, safety long term. You know, the best thing I could say to people, I think was this
is pick what you want to own when the turnaround comes and it will come, right? So, you know, for
me, if I really don't want to just be in Bitcoin, like IBIT or one of the ETFs, I want MSCR.
being bitcoin of like ibit or one of the etfs i want mstr you know bmnr or sbet those are my
ethereum go-to's but you may have different options do you understand though do you understand
ethereum because i think a lot of traditional finance people will sit here and think crypto
you know bad there's nothing but drugs being used for it but i wonder but then i just had
this conversation with someone else who understood stable coins, really got that, listen, there's so many middlemans for all transactions.
Every single company just can have a stable coin.
And there is no more middleman.
The middleman is the small fees, but you're transacting in one area.
And stable coins have that ability.
The genius axis is really kind of opening it up.
A lot of these stable coins are going to be backed by US dollars, and maybe there's a big US treasury implication.
But all of these stable coins are pretty much built on Ethereum.
And Ethereum is not the only network out there,
but it's the one that Wall Street has centralized around.
Tom Lee was talking about, hey, it's because of the perfect uptime so far.
I don't know necessarily why Ethereum is the one that they're centralizing around.
But I think the point here is that cryptocurrency technology, you can no longer say there are very pretty much now.
You can no longer say there's no real world use case value for it.
You can't say it's just drugs and everything like that.
Stablecoins, real tech, and that is built on Ethereum.
And it's not one to one like others.
But Evan, I can argue that that's been the case for the last four years.
And there are memes about Ethereum.
We still think of you like just three and a half, four months ago.
So like, yeah, that's hot now.
But I don't think it's coincidental that all of these, you know, treasuries and stablecoin and crypto trades in the market,
stablecoin and crypto trades in the market, like the traditional finance market, topped on,
you know, August 13th when bullish went public. Like it's, you know, I don't think there's like,
it's ironic, but I don't think that that's like a coincidence. I think certain times you get
these moments where you have this like euphoria we had it now you just
need a digestion period you know ironically enough on the flip side of that if you take a look at
bullish especially on a shorter time frame that thing looks like it could rip just on a mean
reversion um does that does that move in tandem with the rest of it maybe but i just think what
mike was saying and kind of like what i was saying as well is there's a there's a
lot of choices now versus when you go back a couple months ago there's like a handful of choices and
then the rockstar name got the rockstar premium now they might trade better you know on a relative
basis but i really do think you have to wash out all of the crappy ones that tried to duplicate and then kind of cement the winner of all of them.
And then the secondary thing about the Treasury side, I mean, just take a look at Circle,
parabolic up, elevator down.
So it's like there's still like a price discovery mode.
There's no one knows currently where this fair value is going to be.
I don't know.
I think when you do the calculations for this whole MNAV thing,
it's probably...
You're right.
They are giving BMNR much of a value over the Ethereum
that they end up holding right now.
And it's kind of a better Ethereum.
And what I'm thinking...
Yeah, we can move on from this conversation.
I wonder if anyone else has any thoughts but um and i think
the conversation of why is it ethereum could be one that i'd love to hear other voices on everyone
can tell you why a better chain is is different and better but it just hasn't happened yet solana
people i'm sure are down below saying why solana is great? The argument against Ethereum is when the network
is congested, the premium that you have to
pay for transactions
is higher
than that that you have to pay on
Solana or some of the other things.
Aren't there a lot of layer twos that end up fixing that?
So you're just going on base.
To a certain degree, but there's
that argument and there's the speed thing. There's a lot of different things that people will point to
uh i i've had this conversation on this on this show you know a few weeks ago and logical's
mentioned it as well others have spoken about it this is going to happen the tokenization is going
to happen they're testing it out with you know, basically placeholders for private
companies. My opinion, these are just tests for, you know, larger transactions down the line and
like real world use cases. And I think it's going to happen. And I think when it does happen and
you start having transaction volume like that start to move up exponentially, then the business
side that you're talking to will actually
kind of like meet that middle point. But I think right now, not to make the joke of it,
but we're still early. They're still in price discovery. We're still trying to figure out how
this is all going to work and how they're going to get paid and how all that stuff.
So I don't disagree with your fundamental stuff down the pike. But I will say this thing with
Parabolic up and its elevator
down now, they're just trying to figure out what's the fair market value for this vehicle that trades
on the back of the fundamental stuff that you're talking about. And look, it's not nothing the
people that are involved, right? I mean, that's the big thing is that they're making a bet on
who they think will be the ultimate winner in this space. So that's a nice tailwind to have as well.
To me, what I'm just kind of underlying seeing, and maybe it's stablecoins,
it's that promise of crypto not being some random scam stuff,
but taking out the middleman of a lot of transactions, fees, and saving companies 3% to 5%,
making every company in
the world that much more profitable.
AI is doing that to the max.
If you can make every company in the world 3% to 5% more profitable and increase their
margins, that is quite the asset.
And it seems like stable coins and it seems like this whole crypto technology is really
evolving that way pretty
quickly and yeah my bet is that ethereum is going to be the one that it's going to be built on and
if you look at the way staking is in the u.s in new york specifically it's pretty hard for me to
do it so i i can i i think the argument of why bmnr versus ethereum there's a bunch of different
ones in there but But the cryptocurrency technology
conversation, truthfully, I think has evolved from it just really has evolved from it just being
drugs, from it just being illegal stuff. What is crypto used for speculation and drugs? Like,
I feel like we're starting to see those real use cases coming out.
Has anyone thought it was drugs since Silk Road? I don't even hear people. Yeah't I don't even hear yeah I don't think
anybody I don't think anybody on here who you hanging out with Jamie diamond like I'm just
like yeah like all these non kyc whenever I see an exchange and their whole thing is we you don't
have to put in real information so that we can track you and that's like the as I'm seeing stuff
I just want to point out Evan was talking about moving to you know Puerto Rico and out of New you don't have to put in real information so that we can track you. And that's like the ads I'm seeing and stuff.
I just want to point out Evan was talking about moving to,
you know,
Puerto Rico and out of New York city,
you know,
in the near future.
you know,
maybe there's something going on there.
That's all I have to say.
Do you want to hear the transparent thing?
I don't want to go through all the hoops.
I probably will remain a New York resident,
pay the taxes while I'm down there.
Lies, lies.
Listen, we'll see.
Let's circle back on this.
Evan El Chapo.
I know.
That's going to come up in about 20 years when people want you out as Fed Governor.
Evan, you forced to buy some documents.
You're fired.
I pay my taxes.
I pay more than my taxes.
Wonderful taxes.
I got money back last year from the IRS.
Shout out.
Put him on the list.
It means you paid too much.
Yes, but it was enough that I was happy.
Check that guy's hard drive.
Anyways.
All right, all right. Let's keep going around. Check that guy's hard drive. Anyways. All right.
All right.
Let's keep going around.
Dimitri just joined up.
StockGeek still wants to get to a few others.
StockGeek, you got some thoughts on this conversation?
Maybe outside of paying taxes.
More back on the market.
Yeah.
I mean, I do think if we're still talking crypto treasury, I do think the high profile of the people involved in BMNR certainly makes it intriguing at some point, right?
When the technicals get a little better, maybe when some of those other smaller ones get washed out, like people have said.
And, you know, there's something to the idea that, like, you've got one Michael Saylor and BMNR, you've got a number of pretty high profile names behind it for the eventual pump whenever that may come.
So I'm definitely intrigued. It definitely should be on people's watch list in my opinion.
Yeah.
What about the rest of the market? What are you getting in right now? Where do you see the opportunity?
Yeah, I mentioned briefly earlier, I'm still kind of riding the cannabis trade. And that
Yeah, I mentioned briefly earlier, I'm still kind of riding the cannabis trade.
one is surprisingly strong. From a technical perspective, from the fact that it hasn't
dumped like it has always dumped in the past two or three years on lack of regulatory catalysts.
It keeps anticipating the catalysts. And even though the catalyst hasn't come yet, the
price strength is pretty notable here. And a lot of these names, a lot of retail investors will probably look at these stocks if we do get a regulatory catalyst and say,
look, they're still trading 40% to 50% below where they were before Trump won a second term.
So, I mean, I think there's still juice to be squeezed there. We probably get a pullback at
pullback at some point if the catalyst doesn't come near term. I do think there's a potential
some point if the catalyst doesn't come near term. I do think there's a potential for disappointment.
for disappointment. Maybe if the Trump crew decides that they want to use this for 2026
midterms instead, I think that's a possibility. So you got to be a little careful, but,
but that's an area that I'm just kind of riding on. You know, I was fortunate to kind of get in
pretty close to the bottom here. So I'm just kind of watching on that one. There's a lot of other
stuff. Like we mentioned, I mentioned a bunch of one-offs I'm looking at. We mentioned Stratasys, you know, with some congressional buying there, probably worth a look. Kind of a turnaround play 3D printing. You know, it's got some national defense aspects to it.
Additive manufacturing, domestic reshoring, all those hot themes that we know under the Trump admin, that sort of applies there.
It just hasn't shown up in the numbers yet.
So that one's certainly intriguing.
Interestingly, I've been digging through some stuff in the retail sector.
There's been some nice pops in retail on some of these viral trades.
So stocks like obviously American Eagle a couple of weeks ago, but we've seen some stuff like, you know, Gap is selling out some of their products on the cat's eye stuff.
We've seen, you know, squeezes and just in that sector in general.
So I'm kind of poking through Under Armour is one that caught my eye with three directors with huge insider buys in the last couple of weeks.
So again, one, we haven't really seen the turnaround show up in the numbers yet, but there's, you know, these are the intriguing little like details I like to catch early to try to find stuff.
So I'm just looking at a bunch of one-offs and then kind of waiting for what happens in September from a broader market perspective to give me some, you know, some fresh perspective.
Hey, can I ask you a question about the pot catalyst?
Sure.
So, I mean, I think the big thing, if I'm correct,
it would be safe banking, right? And that's got to be done by Congress, correct?
Yeah. Well, the rescheduling is the thing that, um, that's what Trump would do. He would reschedule
right through. That's right. Right. But I guess what I was getting at is like, what can he do?
Like, I know he can do that, but isn't it really safe banking, the thing that would
finally bring a certain investor class in here? And aren't we just dependent on Congress,
which can't seem to do anything, let alone safe banking?
Believe it or not, the rescheduling matters to the MSOs because they're paying these weird rules
where they essentially have to hold back money for taxes. They can't
deduct a bunch of normal business expenses because the product they're selling is under Schedule 1.
And so theoretically, these MSOs have these huge tax bills. And if you look at their balance sheet,
you'll see that there's these huge hundreds of millions of dollars of liabilities. Those
liabilities go away as soon as it gets rescheduled from Schedule 1 to Schedule 3. So it's about a 30%
to 40% boost to the enterprise values on day one for the MSOs because of the tax change that results
from rescheduling. And so that's a big bump. But you're right, safe banking also makes a big
difference because it allows uplisting to major exchanges. It allows, you know, it theoretically also allows better credit card transactions in store,
which gives an uplift to each legal dispensary.
They think anywhere from 10% to 30% revenue uplift when people can use credit cards
instead of having to go to some shady ATM.
Yeah, wait till they can use Affirm then.
Yeah, great point.
Financing your weed purchases, right?
Cool, thank you.
I appreciate that.
I know God was telling me right before,
wow, have you looked at MSOS recently?
It's flying, so.
Well, yeah, and it's not only that.
It's not just that the the etf has been
flying it's the inflows and actually bilal little the director of etfs for the new york stock
exchange was talking about this you can go into etf central right now which is uh their website
that just has a bunch of free information on this and there's a button that says segments
and if you click on that you can see where the major flows have been into. And right now you'll see cannabis and
psychedelics is the number one best performing segment in the entire stock market over the past
week. And right now, kind of the segment as a whole is moved up 23% in the past five days and is up 46% year to date. Now, obviously, MSOS itself,
right? That's just one part of it. There's a few other names that you can look at within here,
but the flows into MSOS have been pretty substantial. Last five days, $27 million
in flows into MSOS, a really, really nice jump from what we were seeing earlier on. And year to date,
it's continuing to kind of poke its head up at the moment. So I'm excited to see where it can
continue to go. And, you know, it's still so beaten down on the three years. I also quote
tweeted a post from Hebbia this morning. And so they were using some AI to kind of outline and
target a potential trade here for the fall.
And the idea was, you know, just what if there is a federal legalization of cannabis this fall?
We already have major cuts in alcohol, right?
They talked about how Gen Z is drinking less than ever, right?
And so you're seeing alcohol sales just continue to cut.
And any state that has made cannabis legalized, medicinal, recreational, has seen a drop in alcohol sales just continue to cut. And any state that has made cannabis legalized, medicinal,
recreational has seen a drop in alcohol sales. So if you do see that continue further, I mean,
it would be an explosive growth in this name. So just something to keep your eyes on right now,
the cannabis sales in the US are already at 31 billion and they're growing high single digits.
And there's also obviously a huge tax relief
that's worth hundreds of millions
for these cannabis operators
if they do legalize it federally.
So you see names like MSOS
absolutely exploded the upside,
not just because of more purchasing,
but also the tax relief.
So those are kind of things that I'm looking at.
And then just last thing,
you know, year to date,
they've had $172 million in flows
that's come into these seven funds that they're
kind of aggregating in the cannabis and psychedelics area. So $172 million year to date,
but $27 million of that coming just in the last five days into MSOS to give perspective, right?
So that's basically, gosh, I don't know, 20, a little bit less than that, right? It's going to
be like 10% or so, a little bit more than that, right? It's going to be like 10% or so,
a little bit more than 10%, maybe 12% of all the entire flows coming in the last five days.
And I like to follow the big money. And so I'm looking at it saying, all right, you know,
you have 12, 13% of all the flows of the entire year coming in the last five days. And this is obviously surge past 200 day moving average. It's above all key moving averages.
Maybe, you know, if you want to look for a pullback, you look for a pullback to the 21
SMA because that's worked really well the last two times and say, hey, if we pull back
to that 21 SMA, we can look for that next leg up.
Or maybe you're looking at it saying, hey, we haven't even hit where we were in November
last year.
We were trading at over $7, so we have $5.75 now.
I see some opportunity there.
So I just would be paying attention because
clearly the big money is.
Well spoken, actually.
Not that I'm surprised, but well spoken.
Thanks for the actually. Thanks for the actually. Appreciate it.
Great alcohol statistic in this.
Shout out. Shout out.
Research. Dimitri,
I see you're on stage would you like to uh transition
a little bit of conversation from yourself maybe on the uh geopolitical side as well if you have
any thoughts from nvidia with some of the china stuff they were talking about or anything else
that's going on you know i won't lie there was a week or two there a couple days where i actually
thought russia ukraine was going to end.
Oh, I don't hear you, Dimitri.
Yeah, it's just me.
Can't hear you, Dimitri.
If you're on something, you might have to reload.
Cool.
All right, I see you dropped down to reload.
No problem.
All right, we do kind of have Emp on stage.
Emp, you just chilling here? Or do you want to share any thoughts?
And no worries if not.
I know he's still in baby baby duty uh as it's been
recent we're getting dimitri back up on stage right now so it shouldn't be an issue just give
it two seconds and we'll have him up by the way markets we have 18 minutes till the close right
here spy is trying to push for new all-time highs into the close. We are less than a dollar from 650 on this.
That would be a record close.
It's going to be a record close regardless, to be honest, right now, unless we drop pretty
hard here in the next 18 minutes.
But really nice to see it sitting up here at high of day.
And congrats to the Bulls.
SPY now up over 10% year to date, another double-digit year here.
Dimitri, what's going on?
We can hear you
now. Okay, great. Is the mic working? Yes. Okay, sweet. Yeah, no, great to be here. So
in terms of NVIDIA, I mean, I think the trend is still there in the sense that, I mean,
they had a record breaking quarter, and yet markets still penalized NVIDIA because they had like a small miss on their data center revenue.
And what that really shows is that there is such a high premium now for NVIDIA to outperform.
And it's not even a matter of outperforming.
It's the baseline expectation is for NVIDIA to outperform by several magnitudes.
So that obviously, like that trend, though, isn't anything that's particularly new.
That's been around for, gosh, I'd say like well over a year, well over two years, actually, I would say at this point.
In terms of the geopolitics side, and I'm actually going to be publishing a really big, comprehensive report
on this for PitchBook on the rise of sovereign AI. So I'll give you guys a little teaser about it,
but I'll wait to publish the full report and give you guys all the good stuff in there.
But essentially, NVIDIA is pivoting now to sovereigns. And like, when you're talking about
AI, there's obviously training and there's running inference.
And right now, the first phase is training. And obviously, NVIDIA holds complete market dominance over that.
Obviously, Cerebris is a big player in the space, but not nearly as big as NVIDIA to that same extent.
And like that's going to be the first phase is training.
And the kind of problem that we're seeing right now is that companies and
countries are essentially saying, okay, we want to make sure we're hopping on the board on board
the AI train, but they're not really finding ways to have a meaningful impact on their bottom line.
There's that MIT study that came out recently. In my view, that's kind of it's not a functional gap.
That's more of a delayed, we can't find the right plug-in gap.
It's kind of like you're in bed, you want to plug your iPhone charger into the socket,
but you can't find it.
It's like if the plug-in is there, you just have to find it.
And you are seeing companies emerge in that space in between to actually solve that problem.
There's a company like DeepSense AI, I think is the name of it.
They're working on exactly just that. So that's when it comes to the Nvidia space.
We did a comp sheet recently too that showed that essentially markets are still going to
continue rewarding players that are at the center of the AI space, whether it's like
a NeoCloud like CoreWeave or it's Nvidia or it's a hyperscaler like Oracle,
they outperform the S&P and other benchmark equity indices like the NASDAQ by double digits
consistently. So the market's going to continue to reward them. I was really surprised that the
Trump administration, even though they have a much more market-oriented approach to policy and this kind
of transactionalism, and I don't mean that in a pejorative way, I just mean as an objective way,
I was very surprised to see that they are looking to release not the highest models,
but some of the models to NVIDIA. Not NVIDIA, I'm sorry, from NVIDIA to China. You'll have to
excuse me for a little incoherent, just got over a stomach bug. But essentially, I'm very surprised to see that they are allowing China potentially to have some of Nvidia's hardware. I think now
there isn't discussions of allowing some of the Blackwell hardware. And I was very surprised
because there was like the secular trend of, okay, we're going to be tough on China, particularly
with export controls. AI is central to the PLA's what's called systems confrontation warfare, which heavily
relies on computation like AI. So I was very surprised to see that. That caught me off guard.
We'll be curious to see how much they will loosen export controls. It does say a lot about how
successful Jensen Wong is in lobbying the Trump administration. I think that depending on what the delay is and
how long it takes, I think you're going to see likely NVIDIA outperform again, particularly if
China sales goes up. I think it accounts for, what, 20% of their revenue, if memory serves.
I wasn't surprised to see, I was actually surprised to see data revenue was a little bit lower,
but deal activity in Q2 was actually a lot weaker than Q1 when you're looking at private markets.
That's kind of it on the AI side. In terms of stocks that I'm looking at on the geopolitical
front, MP Materials has been ripping this year. It's up like 300% plus. It's a domestic
rare earth producer. They're based here in California.
And the reason why I'm bullish on them, at least for now, is because of this secular
trend of trying to, quote unquote, de-risk or decouple from China, particularly rare
earths, because they produce like 90% of all the rare earths that we need.
And again, it's kind of a misnomer.
Rare earths are not rare.
It's more so the processing of them is rare. And it's
also not even the extraction that's the problem. Extraction is actually quite abundant. It's more
so, again, just the refining process. China has two major advantages. One, it's a state-backed
industry that is heavily subsidized by the CCP. And again, it has tremendous strategic leverage.
It can use in international affairs like it has used in the US.
They put several export restrictions on gallium and germanium in response to US trade restrictions
and export controls. So there's already precedent for that. They did the same thing to Japan as well
as South Korea at some point over the past few years, if memory serves. So MP Materials is at the center of that. They just secured a massive contract from
the DOD. And because of this secular nature, in my view, it'll not definitively, but in my view,
it'll likely remain buffered from administration to administration volatility, right? Just because
you have Trump in power now, I don't think that if we have a Democrat president in 2028, that you're going to see a
complete reversal of that because it still provides strategic value to the US in the long run.
And yeah, anyways, that's my take on it. It did dip a little recently, but I think it's up,
yeah, like over 300% this year. Apart from that, I'm still bullish on tech and AI.
I know there are some concerns specifically around the GPU market.
There's now GPU as a service, right?
That's where you have NeoCloud providers like CoreWeave come in.
So that part is a little weird because essentially you have CoreWeave saying, okay, we're going to take out a loan.
But in order to collateralize this loan, we're going to collateralize it with GPUs, and then we're going to use this loan to buy more GPUs.
And it kind of creates this weird cycle.
There's a lot of questions about what the value is on the secondary market for these GPUs.
And unlike a derivative, like on a commodity like gold, the value of the commodity is based on the commodity itself.
But with the GPU, it's based on its function,
not just on the hardware.
And there's also a question of obsolescence
in addition to just natural wear and tear.
So those are a couple of the themes and areas
that I'm looking at.
But yeah, no, it's great to be on.
It has been interesting to see
NVIDIA's GPUs,
and I guess just semiconductors in general, be
used in this kind of
geopolitical manner more and
more. The big question on that
NVIDIA earnings call, the big question
in general, I think, around NVIDIA, question mark,
is sales to China.
There was some stuff around 15%.
We didn't know going into it.
They had somewhere in the fine print
that the deal has not been signed yet.
They don't know what's going to happen
with it.
We're still in a very unique area
of uncertainty.
I wonder,
we've talked,
well, this space has talked,
I've listened to a lot of plays,
you know, similar to that MP materials, that kind of energy independence or rare earth materials,
independence area.
What are the ones on the spaces like an LEU, a UUUU, UUUU have been talked about.
I'm curious more of the type of names in that arena that are interesting to you.
Can it complimenting that MP material.
Like you were saying, there's a couple different areas we're missing, and these aren't actually, like, rare to find.
It's the refining.
It's the, you know, all the other parts of it.
And I know that a lot of times that can go to different companies.
Yeah, I mean, so in terms of other companies, there are some competitors. I think the reason why MP Materials has been capturing so much attention
is because it has one of the very few viable business models.
It has a contract with Apple, I think, to create magnets for them or something.
I have to look at what the exact one was. But essentially,
they're going to create like a, their business model is going to be like a semi-Palantir model
where it'll be like very few clients, but very big ones, right? So having government contracts,
obviously, there is a bit of risk there to the extent that, okay, what if you have a different
administration? What if you have different funding? That's a legitimate risk, fine. But again,
you have to look at where the secular value is. And the secular value is that
the US wants to stay ahead in AI, they want to stay ahead in rare earths. So you're not likely
to see any administration repeal any kinds of contracts with them, just because the more and
more they work with them, the more they get embedded and
the uh less easy it is uh to switch vendors
meet you your crypto or stable coin guy at all i can see it uh uh no i haven't looked into it
too much now so i can't uh i can't really comment on it well yeah i mean if i can any nice things
said about the direction.
I appreciate you, Dimitri.
And definitely feel free to jump into more of the topics.
Yeah, for sure.
I kind of want to see if there's anything you want to bounce off
or can bounce out our thoughts or questions for Dimitri.
I know you're also interested in that geopolitical space.
Once upon a time,
there was geopolitical spaces or like a whole series, I feel like, at some point.
But yeah, any thoughts in the conversation?
And if you don't have any thoughts there, just in general.
Yeah, I mean, I have a lot of thoughts on the rare earth stuff.
I've talked a lot about it.
I own names in it.
You know, right now, my favorite name in it is still Energy Fuels.
You know, I think what they achieved at the White Mesa Mill
with their 99.9% purity dysprosium is a first of in the United States. No one has ever done that
like in American history. It's a big deal, you know, for a sub $3 billion market cap. That's a
big deal. So yeah, this is a very, very interesting and exciting space. I mean, you have USAR, which has their round top asset, you have perpetual
resources, PPTA, which has their golden antimony asset. You have energy fuels, who has the white
missa, uranium mill, which is now becoming a rare earth extraction mill. You have MP materials who
secure the government deal and has rare earth assets of
their own so you have about 10 or 12 mostly mid cap american companies uh mps now a large cap
after that movie made this year but you have about five or six real players in this space that have
real technology and then you have probably like 20 hype stocks
that have no assets,
but have gone up 300% this year
just because of the theme.
But it's important to distinguish them from each other,
both in this theme and in other themes.
Like I was talking about nuclear.
We were talking about nuclear earlier
and the SMRs were some of the plays
that actually have real asset value.
Right now in the markets, there's a phenomenon happening, which happens occasionally, where there are a couple of themes, I think nuclear and rare earth, namely, but a few others drones also, I would say, where companies are being given enormous premium on their valuations because they have U.S.-based
strategic assets. Now, in a world where all things being equal, in other words,
let's say a geopolitically neutral world, which is pretty rare, but let's just imagine for a moment,
in that type of scenario, you typically don't see premiums given for that sort of thing. I mean,
granted, U.S.
stocks do trade at a premium to other international stocks. We trade a premium to European stocks,
like a very huge premium to Chinese stocks, pretty much everywhere else in the world.
American stocks trade at a premium. So that's one baseline assumption you have to take into this. But outside of that, this additional bout of enthusiasm and bidding and multiple expansion that you've seen in a couple of
industries is largely due to their strategic importance. And the market is trying to figure
out how to assess value for that. That's why these stocks are also very volatile,
because it's difficult, right? In most of the cases for the rare metal stocks,
they have either no revenue or very little revenue. And the same thing goes In most of the cases for the rare metal stocks, they have either no revenue or very little revenue.
And the same thing goes for most of the nuclear pure plays, even the earnings producing ones, like even centrist and energy fuels who aren't pre-revenue.
They're not making a ton of money. They're not making money hand over fist.
And so the question becomes, why are they trading at the multiples they're trading at? Well, because the market is clearly assigning some sort of.
I mean, premium is really the only way you can put it.
Some sort of premium attached to their possession of strategic national resources and or assets.
As the supply chain develops and investment increases in those areas like rare earths and nuclear, etc., there will be an initial wave where all of those companies probably become even more valuable. monetized, the importance of their strategic national assets will become diluted by the growth
of the overall industry. And then the trade will become less interesting. But I think that's a few
years away from now. So you always have like multiple phases to these types of trades, right?
And this applies to both the rare earths and the nuclear thing. You have a phase where there's a ton of hype and the stocks go crazy and they're
very volatile. And then over time, that phase develops into a real revenue producing and real
earnings producing phase where there's fewer winners. And then the long term, there's a couple
of market leaders that emerge and stocks that end up being a decade long or two decade long
performers. But that's very few of the names that were involved
in the initial stage, the hype stage, right? Like, if you go look at your drone watch list right now,
like, I have a drone watch list with, like, 13 names on my watch lists. I just use manual
watches. I don't use screeners, but my drone watch list has, like, 13 names, and if you flip
it up, I would say nine of them have a high likelihood of
bankruptcy in the next five years, right? Nine out of 13. If I did the same thing with the nuclear
names, I would probably say 80% of them have a high likelihood of bankruptcy within the next
five to 10 years. And same thing for the rare earth names. So you have to understand that risk.
And if you're going to pick stocks in the space to own as investments, know that it's very hard to do and that you have to put in a ton of work.
And if you're just buying stuff that you read about on Twitter from like one tweet, you're probably not going to pick the right ones.
But, yeah, I love the rare earth space.
I have multiple positions in it.
I actually just opened up a position in USAR here into the close.
I just alerted for our members about 10 minutes ago.
I like this low volume pullback into the 21 EMA.
But anyway, yeah, you have to decide which ones you think have real value
and which ones you think don't and go from there.
And that's a hard assessment to make if you don't know anything about the industry.
make if you don't know anything about the industry.
Dimitri,
I wonder if there's any thoughts on
any of the names you brought up or anything there.
If not, we can keep it going.
I have some more questions.
Nothing from my end, no.
Gotcha, gotcha. No worries.
PCE is something that we have coming up tomorrow that's a real other
i feel like big macro well big event that we were watching this week there are earnings today after
oh actually i lost track of time it is 4 p.m eastern it is earnings time damn stuck up on me
sam can i come over to you quickly we only have a minute or two dell marvell a firm we're gonna
leave off a firm by now later that's what you got to know.
Ulta, Makeup.
Can you tell me a little bit more about Marvell and Dell?
What's happening?
So we got Marvell Technology and Dell, very big players in the AI race.
What I'm actually a little bit more interested in, sorry to kind of switch a little bit,
is iREN.
iREN is actually, it used to be a Bitcoin miner, but now it's turning as an HPC machine,
now an NVIDIA partner. So this is going to be pretty Bitcoin miner, but now it's turning into an HPC machine, now an Nvidia partner.
So this is going to be pretty interesting to see what they report.
Not so much looking at the particular metrics, this is more of a longer term story, but more
news on their partnership with Nvidia.
Because I did notice that actually, I saw it on someone else's tweet, that they are now
a partner on their website.
And they have about 244 partners listed there.
So that's pretty interesting to see that there.
But yeah, Marvel Technology looking to take more market share
from the ASICS market and so on.
It looks like market just closed.
Market did close.
A lot of these earnings coming out for $405, something like that.
Snipe, I lost track of time.
Are there any really big implied...
I don't think Dell is going to have a massive implied move.
Marvel might.
I wonder. Let's look. No, we've got to't think Dell is going to have a massive implied move. Marvell might. I wonder.
Let's look.
No, we've got to talk about the most anticipated earnings
and the most important one.
Webull is actually putting out their first report today.
No, I'm joking.
Sentinel one –
People are trading Webull, though.
Yeah, but there's just no expectations.
No one knows really what to expect.
I think everything is going to be all over the place, to be honest,
if you ask me.
That's the second quarter that they're reporting when they're public. Keep your weevil let's go weevil yeah now get the hell out of you chris i don't want to
hear weevil we got out of that thing um as far as the implied moves go um the only one that really
stands out to me is ulta beauty with a 30.59 move or 5.79 percent um it always has some pretty
interesting reactions on ulta uh you could see the last four for yourself.
That name's so volatile on earnings, I feel like.
Oh, yeah.
Autodesk is out.
Oh, yeah.
And Sentinel won $1.51 implied move or 8.57%.
I think that's what we're all here to see today.
Do you have the average...
Autodesk, by the way.
I'm curious about this.
I'm curious about this.
Autodesk, by the way. Autodesk, by the way. Autodesk, by the way. Autodesk, by the way. Autodesk, by the way. Autodesk, by the way. Autodesk, by the way. Autodesk, by the way. Autodesk, by the way. Autodesk, by the way. Autodesk, by the way. Autodesk, by the way. Autodesk, by the way.
Autodesk, by the way.
Autodesk, by the way.
Autodesk, by the way. Autodesk, by the way.
Autodesk, by the way.
Autodesk, by the way. Autodesk, by the way. Autodesk, by the way. Autodesk, by the way.
Autodesk, by the way. Autodesk, by the way. Autodesk, by the way. Autodesk, by the way. Autodesk, by the way. Autodesk, ADSK, moving higher. 10 now.
You own that, Evan?
Random name for you to bring up.
Just report it.
I don't know.
I feel like it's pretty large.
You usually don't mention, like, on earnings days,
usually I can stay focused on Big's name, so I'm surprised you mentioned that.
Whoa.
You want the honest move?
I don't think any of the names are that big.
Love you all.
No, I mean, I don't think any of the names today are that big either.
Iron, what are we doing?
Iron's up 2% is the initial move there.
Autodesk missed an EPS quite fat, but that's probably a one-time expense with how big of a miss that is.
Sorry, I was going to ask you, Simon, what's the average move for Ulta?
Do you have the historical average move on earnings?
Typically, I share out the last four reactions, but I could totally calculate that from combining those.
I was just curious if you had the data.
You don't have to go and do that. Just spin them out quick.
You're good. Four reactions plus 11.78%
last quarter plus 13.68
two quarters ago plus 8.99
three quarters ago minus 4.01
four quarters ago. The fifth one
before that was also crazy.
Up 25.36%
since the last report.
Maybe if you include that one, like 8-9%.
That's where I heard.
For what?
No, is the average of that, you're going to be around 8%.
Maybe 9%.
Absolutely.
Roll Tide.
The AIRO today, that was my most recent recent opening i had a nice day today plus seven percent
webo's up four percent oh is it i have let's see if i see was the report good or we don't
have estimates right we bowl eps was five cents revenue of 131 Yeah, we don't really have estimates They grew revenues
46% year over year
Sam, you didn't look at the Discord today, did you buddy?
I did not
Why, what happened?
Customer assets increased 64% year over year
Yeah, that's obviously the market going up a little bit
How much
Deposits
Do they report that?
I'm about to get the metrics right now.
Customer assets, 15.9 billion.
Funded accounts, 4.73 million.
So up 9%.
Registered users, up 18% year-over-year, up to 24.9 million.
Let's compare this to Robert.
You said registered users
up 18% year over year?
Yeah.
That's pretty good.
Up to $24.9 million for
Webull.
Dude, retail is relentless, dude.
I wonder what the... I'm going to ask
ChatGPT this.
So, here's what I'll say.
Robinhood, 26.7 million customers.
Weebles was not that far off.
Where is that number I just said?
Operating results, registered users, 24.9.
Registered users and funded customers might not be the same thing
i wonder if registered users include zero dollars but uh total assets on robin is 298 billion
uh weebill is 15.9 what's the valuation on weebill though that's obviously going to be a very
bit different different conversation and chris honestly feel free to jump in i'm i i
different conversation.
And Chris,
honestly,
feel free to jump in.
I'm,
Oh my God.
I asked chat GBT pro research version to do an estimate using all available
data of how many new retail brokerage accounts have been opened across all
commission free brokerages in the United States since 2019.
And it says in excess of 70 million is its best estimate so webull is about
7 billion in market cap they just recently came i think uh they might have like a billion or two
in cash but the key is they're very early to the growth cycle and it this thing like i said it
doesn't take a lot to get to uh higher Remember, as trading volumes go up naturally, you're going to see transaction volumes go up.
And yeah, user growth is important, of course.
But I think the key is with Webull, if you look internationally, the number of retail people getting in internationally is huge.
And Webull doesn't just have presence in the U.S.
Like Robinhood is very U.S.-centric.
Outside of the U.S., there's a lot of people on Webull that are getting on.
And they're really focusing heavily on getting into other markets.
So I think even if you were able to get a very small piece of the pie, you're looking at, look at the other brokers out there. Like Schwab is, I think, like 150 billion.
Robinhood is like 90, almost 100 billion market cap.
IBKR just went into the s&p
yeah you know this is this is a very profitable business where you're just basically picking off
pennies on both sides of a trade and you don't need a lot to put into it so business models
freaking great yeah we did get a couple numbers crossing there. Dell came in. I'm seeing a double beat.
I see the stock was up initially.
Not that crazy.
I'm seeing up 2% in after hours.
And then Marvell.
I saw someone say double beat.
I'm seeing EPS revenue as a miss.
So maybe a little conflicting, but Marvell stock is down about 6.5% that initial move.
Yeah, I have Marvell EPSps in line 67 cents expected 67 cents
actual and i'm sorry i posted the revenue already uh revenue 2 billion verse 2.01 expected miss
and marvell stock moving lower though dell up a little bit. Just scrolling to down actually. Dell's down 3%. 232 EPS
on Dell versus 229
expected. Revenue at
$29.77 billion versus
$29.19. Must be the guide
on Dell why it flipped red.
I just walked in here. The guide
for Dell
they had 9.4 to 9.55.
The estimate was 9.38.
And that's for fiscal year 2026.
They also raised their full year sales estimate as well to know it's above the guide.
So yeah, forward guidance for Dell came in strong.
Probably was moving higher.
Well, yeah, was moving higher there.
Ulta raised its full year guidance too.
I haven't looked at it.
We know it's a high flyer or big dumper.
There you go.
Ulta is only five.
We'll see.
But Ulta is up $30 in that initial after hours move.
Affirm revenue $876.41 million versus $837 expected.
EPS $0.20 versus $0.11.
That's expected.
Affirm stock is lower.
The last thing is up 17%.
Open source gets to the ceiling.
Double off the April lows.
Oh my god.
All right.
Yeah, so Ilta's did them.
There are a couple sectors.
The stock market is clearly male-dominated space,
and there are a couple female-led sectors,
which leads to some interesting stocks.
Sentinel-1 also reported numbers.
They raised guidance.
They're up about 0.5%.
Evan, you write out Ilta numbers?
You can read out whatever you want,
but honestly, I feel like the numbers,
like it's just kind of word jumbled at some point.
Just beat, miss, then we'll look at the moves
and come back on what's interesting.
Okay, double beat.
It's difficult, obviously.
Honestly, it's difficult for me looking through everything
understanding what's happening, so I know it's
got to be difficult in other places, but
we can look at the big movers,
circle back in on what we found
interesting, I feel like is the best way to go about it.
What is Wee Webull doing though?
I think that the one thing that
does and should get thrown in there is
the Chinese ownership
that's probably the only
negative thing you can put on that company
because apart from
that I talked to Chris a little bit earlier
Webull
platform wise is at least
three years out of Robinhood still.
DocTalk, who owns Robinhood, what platform do you use?
Weeble, yeah, because it's better than Robinhood.
Way better.
Way better.
I mean, we waited forever to get Legend,
and Legend's not even like what Weeble had five years ago, six years ago.
Robinhood's a better company with better management,
with better execution, with better execution, with better
growth. But Webull is a better app for professional traders and investors. If you want like
sophisticated tools and better charting and better fills and better everything, like Webull is just
better in the brokerage sense. And you know, what I will say is that higher end,
those higher end users tend to trade more sophisticated products,
which have higher fees attached to them.
That is something.
I don't know any active long time traders with like a decade plus of
experience who can use Robinhood.
Like I can't use it.
Like I would love to use it. I own the stock,, I can't use it. Like, I would love to use it.
I own the stock, but I can't use it.
It just, like, does not have enough things.
It doesn't even have a sophisticated watchlist tool.
Like, for me, I'm a catalyst and theme guy.
I need a sophisticated watchlist tool
where I can separate my categories,
remove and add stocks.
They do have the watchlist now, by the way.
Yeah, no, but it's ass, though.
Have you used it on Legend?
Have you tried it?
I've tried it.
I've tried it.
I've tried it.
It's just frustrating.
It's bad.
Stock Talk's 100% right with what he's saying.
And the positive note for Robinhood would be these things aren't hard ads either.
Their focus has not been on the active trader.
Their focus is just in general,
just acquisition, people, investors, probably more than anything, more than traders,
and just keeping some of the traders complacent, I guess would be the term,
and allowing them to do some of the basic functions. But they can easily start expanding
to this next, and I think they should. And when they do, I think it'll be very profitable for them
and make them more desirable.
But in the meantime, you have to look at Webull
and even IBKR and some of these other ones
as much, much better products for your active trader investor.
See, what's funny is Webull actually has this feature
where if you want to like you know go
into like robin hood mode which is just the simplified ui you just click this one button
and you go into like simplified ui mode but if you're actively trading and you're much more of
a technical person and you want to do like good stuff like you need weeble like i found myself
like i have robin hood and i have weeble and I have fidelity.
The thing I realized is dude, I've been using weeble because you know, I was like, all right, let me craft a thesis around a product that I would theoretically use. I haven't been using
Robin hood nearly as much as I've been using weeble like in the last like three months.
I don't know why it just the watch list, especially, and I agree with you, um,
stock talk, it is so much better. Like I have custom layouts, um, for all my watch lists
where basically it's like, okay, now I can track every single industry. I have all the stuff that
I need. I see the sparklines where I need them to see. And it's great. It just, and it sits on the,
and it's great on both Mac and on, um, on, um, on windows. Like you just download the app and it sits on the it and it's great on both mac and on um on um on windows like you just
download the app and it works great i don't know why that what frustrates me is i think vlad's a
great ceo again like i own this i own robin hood in size it's like my third largest position in my
portfolio i love the company but it's frustrating to me because I know Vlad's smart.
And like M said, these are not big asks.
Like Robinhood has a sophisticated coding team, clearly.
They have a very nice app.
They have the prettiest app.
If you care about like UI, UX, they have the prettiest app.
It's like the easiest on the eyes.
It's very user-friendly.
A newbie who's never traded stocks can use it. So those parts are good. And that's part of why they're able to get so much penetration
in the market with new retail users. But it's such a simple fix. Just copy their watch list app.
Just copy it. I don't know why they try to make... Can I ask you something? Do you think part of the
reason they haven't is this is a company may be going after what they see as hundreds of billions of dollars of opportunities.
And Webull is a six billion dollar company.
Do you think that?
No, I get that.
But it's not even just Webull.
It's IBKR, too.
Right.
Like I brought up.
It's not.
It's like the other commission free brokerages have superior tools.
Why?
Robinhood's the biggest one.
Doesn't make any sense.
You would think the market leader in commission-free brokerages, which is clearly Robinhood
in terms of size, would have the best tools. And they don't. And it's just frustrating to me. These
are not complicated things to integrate. They integrate a sophisticated charting platform,
which they've done a little bit of a better job of. They have a better charting platform now than they did a year ago, but it's still not good
enough.
It could easily be improved.
And they need to integrate a sophisticated watch list feature, like Chris said, with
spark lines on it, with categories.
Like on my Webull watches, I can say, OK, I want to look at all these stocks in this
industry with just their free float market caps and their sparklines.
Okay. I want to look at all the stocks in this industry with just their sparklines and just
their five day percentage move. And I can open those categories and look at it. I want to look
at all these stocks with their average three month volume and their sparklines and boom,
it pops up. Like that's so useful for somebody that's staring at the markets all day.
Like for people that are like full-time traders and investors like I am, like you need to have that level of customization.
Or at least I do.
I need it.
Like I cannot use it.
Like I had a pretty sizable amount of capital on Robinhood when Robinhood first started all the way through the end of 2023 and the end of
2023 i took all my assets out and put them into weeble because i wasn't using it like because i
couldn't use it effectively the way i needed to monitor my positions and like you know actively
manage my stock so i hope they fix it because i will move my money back to robin hood because
i'm invested in it and i think overall it's a better company.
Okay. So, but yeah, so I've worked in product engineering. I've worked with developers and everything I'm developing myself,
but one of the things having a large user base is that you have to be very
careful which features you want to roll.
And you also have to basically iterate deployments on a constant basis
because you have such a demanding user base
but at the same time uh we will okay so like you're saying robin hood or villat has a like
top-notch engineering team right but they're gonna do things smartly by not rolling out all these
features without fully vetting out the previous ones if you keep on rolling new features like
brand new features out every single these aren't features that need vetting sam no i know
but i'm just saying like it's not as simple as just rolling out a feature i'm not i'm certainly
not trying to defend no it's not dude if you do work it's not easy to do that because it takes a
lot it takes a lot of coding in order to do that and testing and vetting you know what feature
no to to get the watch like feature that everyone
wants it's gonna take time to do it's not it's not like they don't want to do it for a hundred
billion dollar company sam i hear what you're saying on product development side you're i'm
deferring to you on that what i'm saying to you is let's just think logically about this
why can't a hundred billion dollar company do that within a quarter well why did they take google so
long to release Google Finance?
But Google's not releasing a watch list app that's attached.
Like, the data's already there.
Like, Sam, they already have the data.
They have everything they need to fill.
Like, Weeble's watch list app doesn't include some sort of proprietary information.
It's just stock data.
It's live stock data that's customizable on a feed.
As a Robinhood user, all of that's customizable on a feed like what as a robin hood user all that
information is on the app already why can't i view it in a more discernible sophisticated way
right it like product development is complicated coding is complicated but this is not a complicated
thing another simple thing was like you know the the screenshots for like your P&L,
like if you want to look and see, how am I doing on my entire account? How am I doing on this
position? On Robinhood, there's not really a good way to see that or share that. Webull has these
beautiful, easy screenshots. You pop it up, it shows your entire, it puts it on your entire
screen. You can look at it that way. You can enjoy it. You can share it with friends, with
other traders, whatever's going on. That's another very simple ad that would make Robinhood much more desirable
in the trading space. Yeah. And like when you look at your P&L portfolio, it shows you everything,
shows you the information, the money, the percentage gain, the chart. Like Weebull,
you can customize that and look at it and say, Hey, I want to look at my percentage return over
this period. I want to look at my dollar return over this period. I want to look at my dollar return over this period.
I want to look at my realized performance over this period.
I want to look at my profits on this stock versus this stock.
Like, why can't you do that stuff with Robin?
You can.
You literally can now.
That's a very good point.
It's not as seamless and it's not.
When was the last time you tried it?
Because what I am using now.
I tried it when they really fledged.
No, but look on your actual app again.
Scroll down past your stock.
There's a realized profit and loss section now.
That's what I'm talking about.
That's what I'm talking about.
That's what I'm talking about.
I'm not talking about realized profit and loss section.
Okay, have you ever used Webull?
Not enough that I would answer that question, yes.
But I have used it.
If you go to the P&L section on Webull,
you can sophisticatedly look at your profit and loss on Robin Hood you
cannot do that in a level what can you what can you not do you just you can't
you can't view your performance across multiple metrics across multiple stocks
across multiple time periods in the way that you can in the customized way that
you can't we will and again the part that's irritating to me about this is that these are not sophisticated things to code or develop.
These are not like big projects. This is like, take all the available data that you already have
on the app that is feeding live into the app already and create a simple interface to engage
with it. That's it. That's it's it i get it it blows my mind it feels
like everyone at robin is just kind of like whistling past that while they're focusing on
bigger endeavors and i get it because the company's doing well what they're i'm not you know the
strategy is obviously workings but i'm talking about for people like me who are more experienced
traders who want to use it who want to use it but can't because of the lack of features, that's disappointing.
I mean, if I want to text Sam and say, hey, check out my performance, but I don't want to show him that I have X amount of money in my account.
Like I have to like block all this stuff out on Robinhood on Weevil.
It just pops up.
I get that.
I get that.
But I think the thing is, is that there's obviously a finite amount of engineering hours you can really allocate to any specific project. Yes, it's very simple. But at the same time, the majority of users that continuously roll onto Robinhood every single quarter that we always or every single month that we always see, that's not what they're looking for. And I know I get what you're saying. They should have it. It's kind they don't it's kind of it's kind of ridiculous that they don't like it doesn't make any sense
but the people are signing on without the need for that and they're not getting off yeah well
that's what i led with sam like that's it's not their core focus like i think their focus is
obviously just acquisition in general and that's fine and it's working for them i'm just saying
there's some there's some little things that they could do that i think would vastly improve the overall product and they're
not hard they're not i don't think they're cost and intensive either and it's kind of what stock
talk i would kind of push back a little bit on that only because it may seem to people on the
outside that it might not be that difficult to do but it depends on how they're actually growing
their platform or how they're actually building the platform itself like the ui wise right looks very simple to do but in the
back end it might be way more intensive to me i watched it'd be ridiculous that they don't have
it that way used to work with trade areas i've watched trade areas do all these things and
create a better trading platform and they're they're still private but private. But you can't really compare both of them
because that's just a couple of different platforms.
It's like kind of look at it this way.
Look what Elon Musk did with X, right?
When it was Twitter, he joined in.
They had to overhaul everything
in order to get it to the way it was before.
And I would even argue it's not really that much different.
But at the same time,
how much has Twitter actually changed
a year after he started from a year prior
he started? Not a lot has actually changed, but in the back end, he's even said it himself,
how much code they had to get rid of, how they had to basically rewrite and refactor
almost everything inside the entire application. That doesn't seem like it's a lot to us users,
but in the back end, dude, that's a lot of work and that's very expensive.
So I'm not trying to give an excuse here. I'm not going to be like oh no no no you're right
you know the lad is right blood is right i'm not going to argue that but at the same time you know
something so simple to do could take a lot more than what's actually expected
sam we're agreeing with each other we're agreeing with each other because i i agree with you that robin hood users that they're attracting don't
need these features you know at like if you were to look at 90 of them they don't need these
features i agree with that okay so you're absolutely right about that no disagreement there
i i do push back the only thing i push back on you on is i don't think this requires the level
of development and coding resources that that you. I disagree with you on that.
I think this is a much simpler task.
Now, I mean, it could be.
I'm not saying it is.
I'm saying that it could be that case. Think about what you're an experienced guy in coding and tech and development, right?
So like, think about what I'm asking them to do here.
I want them to create an overlay.
That's it.
A visual overlay of data that already exists, that's already being fed into the app.
Right?
So the data streams are already there.
I just want them to create an overlay.
That's it.
It even frustrates me to explain it because of how simple it is.
I hope someone sends this conversation to Vlad because that would help tremendously.
Dude, I would love to just
say that to vlad like if he's ever on a space or something i'm gonna be like dude please add a
sophisticated watch list feature and two or three more charting features and to be honest
yeah no seriously no you know the thing is like with with all that stuff i'm not trying to make
an excuse i don't think there really is any excuse to not at least have that ability to send a screenshot like ep was saying where it doesn't have your dollar
amount like obviously people are posting screenshots left and right the writing's on the
wall with that very simple to do um but at the same time it's like you know it's actually really
interesting whenever you see like these earnings called for like robin or whatever where you can do
like a q a and then you see like the most voted questions on there like this would obviously make a really good question but the top
question on there is like what is robin hood paying a dividend like yeah it's the most ridiculous
questions you'd ever see like yes i agree with you but i feel like a lot of people just don't
ask for this stuff that happens with a lot of retail it's stupid yeah it's stupid they did it
with sofi too and data-driven investing all those guys they're like what in the world is it you know with a lot of retail heavily retail stocks. It's stupid. They did it with SoFi 2
and data-driven investing. All those guys, they're like,
what in the world?
On the Tesla earnings calls, the questions are
always fucking terrible.
It's ridiculous, man.
At the same time,
Vlad, he cannot be oblivious to it.
Come on.
They love this promotion stuff.
Imagine them saying,
hey guys, we just added a sophisticated watch this feature we added two or three more highly requested charting tools they should just do a poll on twitter of like which features that
we don't have do you want i would vote watch list on 500 different accounts and once they
once they do that release those features and say, hey. Talk talk.
Can I tell you something?
If you created a one-page vision of what you want to see, I could guarantee you 200% that Vlad will not only see it, but he will actually look at it and understand it. I mean, you've got like 300K followers.
Make us all money.
Come on.
No, I'm doing it.
I'll create a one-page vision of exactly what I want them to do,
and then you give it to Vlad when you're at the next Robin Hood call.
Okay?
Two weeks.
A week and a half is the Robin Hood event.
You guys should watch it.
I have no idea what they're adding.
I'll create you a one-pager before then of exactly what I want.
I'm going to hand-tamer the one.
And honestly, I bet you, I could honestly give it to the better person,
their head of engineering or whatever, who I think we can get on the spaces maybe.
We'll see.
But he's a cool guy.
He's been there forever.
We had him on, didn't we, like a few months ago?
I'm just a new one-pager, and it's just going to be a screenshot of the Wii.
That was the cheap broker job.
Yeah, we had somebody on a few months ago that talked about some of that stuff.
No, but yeah. Let me make copies and stuff take take oh we'll get in the front of them i'll i'll make this into a little stocks on spaces thing too we can make some content from the
account but okay bet yo i have i'll have that made for you before you attend that event in a
week and a half i have two cents to add on this brokerage discussion all right um yeah go for it so i gotta say um i've used every single one right i've used robinhood
i've used weevil i i could tell you right now i use thinkorswim on a day-to-day basis right
for trading options they're the absolute worst right i i pay a commission going in and out uh
it seems glitchy uh the app crashes maybe once every couple months and you say you're never going
to use it again but i still continue to use it where's the but where's the but where's the sales
pitch but do you know do you know oh no but here's do you know why i use thinkorswim considering all
this you're dumb no uh well maybe but i do it because of habit because that's the one that i
really started trading options on and um i think that a lot of people, you know, are just going to continue to trade options on whichever one that they started on.
Now, I think Webull and Robinhood are both the best. Right.
And just like you were saying earlier with Sam, you know, they kind of have different products to attract different clientele.
You know, something for some person, some people, Robinhood could be the best option.
Might not necessarily be for Webull. I'll tell you, couldn't, I can't tell you how much I made on
options trading yesterday. I can't, I can't even, I don't even know how to see my orders aside from
the tax documents. You know, um, I could say that with, with, uh, Robinhood, it is awesome.
You could see everything that you've done, you know, and I see exactly what you're saying,
stock talk. It is nice to be able to see your P and L from a very specific point to a very
specific point. It is awesome being able to mess with it P&L from a very specific point to a very specific point.
It is awesome being able to mess with it more precisely.
But I could totally understand why people would like Robinhood as well.
But my two cents are is basically I think most people use the brokerage that they started on, to be honest.
I think I just heard you say that I can't tell you how much I made yesterday.
And I'm thinking it's because you made so much damn money yesterday.
Like, come on, man. No, I'm telling you, Sam much I made yesterday. And I'm thinking it's because you made so much damn money yesterday.
No, I'm telling you, Sam, I'm literally not capable.
I mean, I could pull up these tax documents,
but I'm not going to do that every time I need to see how much I did.
That's going to take me a solid five minutes of clicker. I don't even know how to do that off the top of my head.
But, you know, again, I mean, I literally couldn't.
It's not that I won't tell you how much i made yesterday i could
not i'm not capable of it i just wanted to emphasize that but you can't tell you don't
need to tell me but you don't have any idea how much money you made yesterday well no i know i
made a couple hundred bucks it wasn't anything crazy why are we what are we talking about on
this topic i just mess it around it's messing around around with stocks. But yeah, I used to use IBKR for years.
And I loved it.
But the UI was just driving me insane on IBKR.
I just can't stand it.
The IBKR UI feels like I'm doing homework.
So I just got sick of it.
That's honestly the reason why I switched.
And I'm not much of a UI guy in most parts of my life.
But for a guy that stares at stocks all day, every day,
it eventually starts to matter.
For me, the IBK or UI just wore down on me.
For me, it's somewhere in between UI and functionality,
and Robinhood just does not have the functionality.
It just does not.
That could change so easily.
Like I would love for Vlad to do that, do that match.
I think this kind of highlights one thing real quick.
Stock talk, sorry to interrupt.
Just that everyone is going to have different preferences.
And the thing is the more options that these guys give us,
the more people will find things that they like and utilize that.
Right. And that's the thing, like the total addressable market for trading, whether that be
crypto options, stocks, bonds, whatever, it's going to keep going up. I mean, if you think
that there's going to be less retail investors, less investors 20 years from now than they are
today, I have something I can't tell you that how wrong you are. There are 6 billion people, almost 7 billion people on this planet. Okay. Somewhere along the
lines, things flipped 20 years ago. No one was trading stocks. Now I can't find a single person
in my personal zone who does not actively trade something, or at least have something invested
in, in a platform. Even if someone is able
to capture a very small market share in that, that's still a tremendous amount of value going
forward. So there's not like this situation where it's like either you're using Microsoft or Apple
and that's it. Like the total barrier to entry is so low that I think that there will be features
that each broker has that attract a certain type of investor.
And, you know, if you get, let's say, 1% of the retail trading market over the next 10 years,
that's still a tremendous amount of people that are going to be using your platform
and basically generating you this high margin revenue that's built on what?
People going back and forth on trades, buying and selling things, holding things on your
platform. So yeah, I think being long on the brokers for the next five to 10 years is not
a bad idea, whether that be IBKR, whether that be Charles Schwab, whether that be Robinhood,
whether that be Weeble. Weeble is just the earliest entrance in terms of being public about it.
God damn it.
Why did we sell, man?
Why did we sell?
Bro, I got back in.
I don't know about you.
What?
That's what I'm saying.
You're not in the Discord, bro.
You got to check the Discord.
Oh, my goodness.
I do see we have Jaguar up here.
I'd love to bring you into the conversation, Jag.
I'm sure you've heard a little bit of there.
I'm sure you're also up here to talk a little bit about the rolling conversation again i did see your post but i'm
curious jag what broker do you uh do your trades on i wonder if your long-term investing portfolio
is on a different one seem like a tos guy yeah yeah i am good afternoon everybody yeah i used
i used to us think or swim i i started using when it used to be called DayTAC in 1997.
That's when I was a freshman in college at Michigan State.
One day I slipped into the computer lab because I couldn't even afford a personal computer at the time.
It was so early that we were using, what was it used to be called?
Windows 4.1 or 3.1, something like that.
I can't even remember.
So I went to the computer lab and I opened an account with Daytech.
And I just loved the stream, live stream.
It became my favorite.
Ever since then, I've been using the same exact thing.
Daytech got acquired by Thinkorswim.
Jaguar, is there anything another platform could do to get you to go over and treat it?
No, nothing at all.
Or basically the only thing is COShine.
I've tried them all.
I have tried them all.
There's nothing you can do to convince me to leave think or sim and go someplace else i mean absolutely
nothing i mean trust me it's not like that i do not want to save money if i gave you robin hood
has this like these like promos that they go on one two percent what if they came out with
something stupid like we'll give you five percent of your account to go over whatever trust me there's
nothing so so this was uh in 2021 i it was, soon after the pandemic crash and whatnot.
I moved $40,000 from my Thinkorsim account to Robinhood.
First time ever I opened an account with Robinhood.
And this was just to test, just to test it out, you know, see if I would
get comfortable with executions, with opening, closing, and all that. I was frustrated as hell.
In the name of just trying to save some money in commissions, I'm like, I can never do this.
This is awful. This has got awful. I moved all the money right back into Think or Swim.
I moved all the money right back into Thinkorswim.
It's not that I, you know, I mean, naturally I pay commissions in Thinkorswim.
I mean, I can tell you right now, I mean, I'm sitting in front of my Thinkorswim account, right?
So it's open. this year I have paid a total of $9,254.63 in total commissions and fees
year-to-date in Thinkorsim account. Of that, $6,067 was options and $3,187 was
futures. Commissions paid for futures. So total 9,250 something. And so, yeah, sure
I can save all of this money if I were to also trade with
Webull or Robinhood, but no.
Nothing comes close to beating the bells and whistles
that are in TOS.
Once you get comfortable with this,
you will never go back.
That's just my view.
Because you see, it's not just, you know,
I heard Stock Talk over there talking about watch lists,
and that's important, no question.
I have all my watch lists open too,
but there's far, far more than that.
How about looking at market internals,
the depth of market internals,
in ways that you cannot get anywhere else?
You want to see what's happening underneath the tape
in terms of breadth indicators and whatnot.
How about creating custom charts,
writing your own script to create custom charts
you cannot find anywhere?
I'll give you one simple example. You want to create not a simple chart but a
seasonality of a chart. So for example, let's say you want to look at
what is NASDAQ seasonality, year-to-date seasonality, how it
typically does each month, right? And then
compare that to, I don't know, Russell seasonality each month to sort of fine-tune those points where,
you know, one area of the market outperforms the other. You know, I mean, just yesterday,
I was discussing this with the clients last, you know, last week too, where the month of September favors the
seasonality for energy and gold. And you take a look at those charts, XLE and XOP and OIH,
they're breaking out. They're outperforming the market. Gold has a beautiful setup here
for breakout. We'll probably break out this week, this weekend. We'll see, right? And so
September favors this versus,
let's say, many of the other parts. And you can see those seasonality patterns, you know,
by not drawing the actual chart, but returns by month and so on. I mean, I can just go on and on.
You can, you know, peer traders, futures traders, forex traders, doing probability analysis of whether a particular option position, right?
Like if I'm creating a complex three-leg structure,
which is skip a strike called butterfly spreads,
and I want to see what is my probability of this trade expiring in the money
come expiration, you know, and if I find myself,
I want to have at least 70% chance this position
goes in the money so I can juice some returns. I can create those funky, I can pull economic data.
If you ask me today, Evan, can you, you know, I can go to thinkorswim and I can chart the
unemployment rate in the state of Michigan.
I mean, I can literally chart what is the unemployment rate and how it has been changing in, I don't know,
in Texas or anything else.
I can chart anything, Rick counts, you name it.
You know, there's like thousands and thousands of economic...
There's a think-back feature.
I can use that to look back last two years
of at any particular time exactly what the values were of any strike of any option of any stock
any time in the past two years i show me what was the specific value of Kratos, whatever strike, six months ago on this day at this time.
Right?
I can do that.
I can pull fundamentals.
I think once you really get down to it, there's nothing that comes close to even beating.
And, you know, for somebody like me who has been doing it now, what, 28 years on Thinkorswim,
you get very comfortable with all of this and then you know exactly where
to find stuff and how to do all of it very very quickly it started off as day tech which was
acquired by thinkorswim which was then acquired by ameritrade which was that acquired acquired by
charles schwab but i'm still here still using the same exact thing. I got to say, I used to use Thinkorswim before they were acquired, and I still remember COVID
days. The platform would just freeze ridiculously. It was so annoying. And to be honest, at the time,
I was trading a lot of options, so I did need those metrics. But what I do remember, especially
as a coder, was that it was very nice to have a very customizable platform that Thinkorswim can offer. And I was
a very big fan of it. But because I changed my trading or investing methodology and strategy,
I didn't need those customizations anymore. But if you're looking for something where you want
to do those, Thinkorswim is definitely hands down one of the best platforms out
there. And in fact, I would say even Schwab, they,
they updated the backend infrastructure of pretty much how that entire
application works,
but didn't really change the front end and it functions so much faster than
it did before, but can't really compare it to COVID days. Cause I mean,
those are some crazy days.
Yeah. I'm looking at this. Like I can play,
I can play live CNBC embedded video right on my platform.
Can you guys do that on any other platform?
Or do you have to turn the TV on?
I don't watch CNBC.
I used to all the time, and I just stopped doing it.
Here's a great feature.
feature can you use it no well I don't use it but like if there's like
Can you use it?
Well, I don't use it.
It was a funny thing.
especially you know when there's heightened anxieties in the market you
know like when we had those you know market on turmoil sessions and whatnot
and and the tariff thing was just destroying everything back in April
occasionally at night when I'm trading futures, I would write on my thing or same,
one click, here you go, live CNBC opens up. I'm watching the tape, all these reporters are coming,
talking a bunch of nonsense that makes no sense to me most of the time. But it's there. You could
do the same thing. You can program Bloomberg and watch it live right over here. I mean,
there's not one thing. Here's another thing.
See, tell me if you can do this in some other platforms.
When I go to execute an option trade in Thinkorswim,
there's a, with a click of a button,
at the time when I'm pressing the button to execute it,
with one check box next to it, I could have my
trade ticket be available for others to see. It won't show the amounts. It won't show the contract
size or any of that. But let's say it's a four-leg iron condor that I'm putting on, right?
It will show exactly what the history
is and you can see what everyone is trading in Pink or Swim. Somebody did a calendar,
somebody did this diagonal and you can see exactly and with just a click or two, you
can actually then analyze the entire trade and you say, you know what, this looks good.
I like this one. This guy, whoever this guy is, but I like this structure. I'm going to do'm gonna do the same thing so there you go just copy the trade and execute this
actually little neat feature was created by an engineer that used to work there
who's no longer there and then it was originally a complete website of its own
thinkorswim ended up acquiring that too and ended up integrating that into their
into the desktop version again I can just go on
and on this is not even a full set this is like 10% of what you can do over here anyways there
are enough marketing from me honestly it's Thursday I enjoy this type of conversation
here's the here's one thing long-term investors as long as it's FINRA backed or whatever the correct
regulatory things are so that you are in a safe broker space, it doesn't really matter
that much.
Traders is a very different conversation.
So if you're sitting here thinking you just want to buy and hold, if you really just want
to buy stocks and trade around in it or buy an option every once in a while, it doesn't
really matter that much.
You can try any of them.
The active traders is a very different conversation when we're trying to do all this stuff um i think
robin it's more going the route of trying to do as much stuff on there for the the common person
as opposed to going deep uh one or two people commented about tasty trades have any of you
guys trade that one or used that app before it seemed to be kind of linked i used that for a minute when
i was trying to look for a better option trading platform uh at the time this was like four years
ago they didn't really have a usable ui for the mobile um but they might have changed that but i
did hear good things about uh the ui and desktop when it did come down but i would have to say on
the desktop if it comes to like trading uh
trading complex option strategies jaguar is right i mean you cannot compare thinkorswim to that and
if you want to get really technical with coding certain algorithms and strategies probably the
better platform would be ibkr because they do have a platform back in for that and it's open source
but when it comes to thinkorswim it's like you know there's a lot of people on there it's open source but when it comes to fingerslam it's like you know there's a lot of
people on there it's very difficult to argue against that the thing is though the majority
of people don't do any of this stuff that that's the only thing that comes with that right it look
it really depends on like what your style of trading is what your strategy is and so on
and just it's just a fact robin hood does accommodate to a lot of people because generally
speaking a lot of people don't really do these sort of things.
Yeah, but if I
buy an SUV with a third row, I can
fold down the third row, right? Unless I need
You can actually fold down the third row.
The point is, why wouldn't Robinhood add
these features for everyone?
Yeah, they're a $100 billion brokerage
company. I mean, come on. It's not
about do they need it or not. They should just have it period like to be honest though stock talk that
surprises me that i think the market capitalization of charles schwab and robin hood is not much
different from each other right i mean i'm not i already stepped away from my terminal, but can somebody check real quick? Schwab is honestly close to double, 80% larger.
It is, Robinhood and IDKR are the same size.
So yeah, it's not that far off.
But Schwab is like 180, Robinhood is like 100.
And by the way, on Interactive Brokers side, just a quick thought on that too.
Just a quick thought on that too.
You cannot open a brokerage account in the US from just any country.
Like if you lived in Nigeria, for example, and you want to buy and sell US stocks and
US options, how do you do that?
If some local brokerage firm in Nigeria does not allow it, how would you do that? If some local brokerage firm in Nigeria does not allow it,
how would you do that? You don't have a social security number. You don't have a
tax identification number. If you don't have that, you can't even open an account, right?
So you just can't. And that's how majority of the world is. The only broker that allows you to do that is Interactive Broker.
And the way they do that is they license the backend of their platform to other local brokers
in whatever country you live in. So if you want to go, let's say, to Mumbai and you say, I want to
open a brand new brokerage business in India.
And you can license the entire technology from interactive brokers.
And at the front, it's going to look like whatever your company is,
the front-facing, the consumer-facing website is going to be whatever you name it,
the pictures, the design of the logo, the website and everything.
But backend is all being run by interactive brokers.
And as you charge commissions in India, you do a split, right?
So whatever it is, 50-50, I don't know, they work out different type of deals for different type of countries.
And these commissions are not cheap either.
And these commissions are not cheap either.
Like, for example, a lot of my clients, because I've been to Belgium and Netherlands, those two countries, five times in the past six, seven years.
And so a lot of my clients come from those two countries in Europe, and they'll tell you they spend like $1.50 per contract.
And the back end is being provided by interactive brokers.
So I don't know what the split is, but they make a ton of money on those commissions. And so that's how, there's actually a website,
if you go to Interactive Brokers website, they have a list of all the countries where
they allow the licensing of their product. It's pretty much every country. Nobody else
does that. And so that's why that stock is performed so well because the American stock market,
the US stock market has been one of the hottest markets for many years now.
All the greatest tech companies and innovation, everything comes from right here.
If you want to buy Tesla stock, you cannot do that from any place else except right here in the US.
So that's how you get the exposure and that's why
interactive broker has been such a great trending stock for such a long time they're a great company
too very well managed my thoughts are tokenization and it's in five years that's the way they're all
getting in there we'll still be having this, traders versus non-traders.
Tokenization will happen.
Will happen.
I do wonder what type of regulatory stuff is going to happen, though,
because somewhere like India, you should probably have to partner.
You have to think about what's the incentive for the industry, right? And I'm talking about for the market makers, the brokerages,
the people, like the members of the investment industry,
what do they want? They want volume. So tokenization, 24-hour trading, that's inevitable.
It's just a matter of when. I dread the day that we have stocks trading 24-7, but it's going to
happen. I think any active swing trader of individual stocks does not want
that to happen, at least all the ones that I've talked to, because it's going to make
our jobs a lot more full-time than they need to be. But I mean, it's inevitable. It's inevitable.
It'll drive higher volumes. And it's also accommodative to this international expansion we're seeing, not only from Robinhood, right, who's expanding internationally.
Jaguar just alluded to IBKR's international initiatives. A lot of American financial institutions are attempting to to broaden their scope internationally.
And for those that remember very early in the tariff conversations, it was one of the points that Trump brought up when he was talking about Canada, about American banks not being
able to do business in Canada.
And he also referenced it with Europe, too, and said, oh, why are American financial institutions
not as dominant in Europe as they could be?
And he was referring to Deutsche Bank, and he was referring to how European banks are
all scams, and he went on this huge rant, which isn't really relevant.
But the administration has been
alluding to this idea, too, that American financial institutions should widen their
international reach. The idea of tokenization in 24-hour American stock trading is conducive to
that, right? Because they're in different time zones. So if you want to drive not only international expansion, but optimize international volume, then you need to do that.
And they know that. And that's why it's inevitable.
Like that will not be stopped. There's some people like I see on Twitter.
They're like, oh, you know, I don't think it's going to happen. It will happen.
It will happen. And I don't know which one's going to happen first.
And I don't know which one's going to happen first. It may be 24-7 trading via conventional rails initially, or maybe tokenization comes first and tokenization is used to piggyback international expansion. times, right? Off exchange, after hours, right? So like when the traditional after hour session
closes, let's say at 7pm central time, then you'd open up these tokenized exchanges in between then
and the official pre-market open the next day. I would imagine that would be initially how it starts and then maybe eventually
you have tokenization all day i the one thing i don't know is i don't know how it's going to work
if tokenized equities are allowed to trade during market hours i guess they'll just trade as direct
proxies maybe um but yeah that could i, solve that problem. You know, StockToke, as far as 24 hours trading is concerned, which may actually even be on the weekends,
what I would love to see, and this tries to basically solve the same end goal as tokenizing it, essentially,
I would love to see futures on single stocks.
There was a concept that that may happen many, many years ago, but it never happened.
If you want to trade Apple at, I don't know, 1 o'clock in the morning because there's some news or whatnot.
Yeah, sure, now in 24 hours you some news or whatnot. Yeah, sure.
Now in 24 hours, you can go and still buy and sell Apple.
But how about futures on Apple?
Jag, have you heard of the new company Vest?
Vest?
Yeah, that's what they're doing.
Oh, really?
There's also some other tokenization platforms that are...
Right now, they have it mostly during...
No, so Vest isn't tokenizing.
Vest is doing exactly what Jag is talking about. platforms that are right now they have it mostly during off no so vest isn't tokenizing vest is
doing exactly what jag is talking about vest is is preparing i they they talked to me a few months
ago and offered me to try their product i actually never ended up doing it but i'm planning on
checking it out soon but anyway they i don't think they've released to the public yet, but they're a startup. And what they're doing is they are attempting to offer futures on individual stocks.
So exactly what Jay was talking about.
That would be a game changer.
You can do futures on oil and gold and S&P and Nasdaq and whatever.
Yeah, give me the futures on every major company.
It's in the S&P 500.
I probably will never buy and sell stocks after that.
I'm not joking.
And it's leverage too.
Because I talked with you a little bit.
It's up to 50x leverage.
There's no theta decay, right?
There is no...
I mean, that's what I'm saying.
For those who have never traded futures, once you get into it...
I mean, I've been doing it for many, many years now.
But once you get into it, I mean, I've been doing it for many, many years now. But once you get into it, you will realize, you know, you know, you what it will actually you may even think that's much better than trading options, to be honest.
You know, because you avoid that that the time burn that is the one number number one killer when you're especially trading action especially for zero dte guys right if all of the futures were available on individual stocks
you know i think all the zero dt guys will probably abandon trading
options will just trade futures all day every night you know one thing i will say futures also
have a much higher fee structure than just buying common stocks do.
So it's more profitable for the brokerages to have you trading futures than to have you
trading common stock.
So when you're looking at the incentives, it feels like they then pushing that would
be in their favor.
Now there's probably other people who would lose, but I don't know if they're the people
making the decision.
Speaker 2
Speaker 2
Speaker 2
Speaker 2
Speaker 2 Speaker 2 the decision. Futures are also a lot higher frequency, too.
Yeah, no, it's going to be an interesting time in markets.
It's going to be an interesting time in markets as that
collision happens because
yeah, I mean, volume is picking up,
retail participation is picking up,
shorter duration, leverage
is picking up um and then
you're gonna throw this not lead to higher sorry what did you say how does this know what how does
this not lead to higher multiples in the future than in the past i don't i think it leads to higher
volatility i don't know if i don't know if the multiple expansion is linear with volume
it certainly helps you know having more, because you have to think about it as a simple supply and demand curve, right?
Like institutions tend to be specially interested.
In other words, they have intention behind the things they buy, right?
Institutions who are throwing around hundreds of millions and billions of dollars tend to have intention behind the things they buy.
That's not like a dramatic thing to say right but that creates concentrations rotations
these type of typical market mechanisms that if you study the market you know you see throughout
history right like market rotations that happen entry year or market rotations that happen on a
multi-year basis or you know pockets of institutional concentration, like, you know, the whole street was overweight
tech for like 12 years post the GFC, like that kind of stuff is due to the fact that institutions
are especially interested when they purchase stocks. Retail is an entirely different beast,
right? Like, as retail participation picks up, you see retail concentrating in things like zero DT
options, you see retail concentrating in things like entirely speculative pre-revenue companies, you know, pushing them to 10, 12, 13 billion mark
caps, pushing Palantir to 400 billion mark cap, like the type of retails, the types of things
they invest in, the types of things they bid up, their willingness to like sit through volatility
on certain names is like entirely different from the institutional animal. And now you're adding to that more ways to get exposure, more ways to get exposure over
a 24 hour period for longer at any time for not just people in the U.S., for people in
multiple countries abroad as well. So it's like this huge vortex of liquidity, really, if you're going to be bottom line about it.
And so, yeah, it's bullish, I think, when you think about it simply like that.
But it also creates overcrowding in a lot of popular names.
And the pullbacks in markets are going to be a lot more brutal because of that, too.
Because, you know, yes, there are super performing stocks that people are piling into, and it's good to be in those stocks during bull markets.
But during market corrections, you know, those stocks are going to get hit even harder because there's more participants at more price points, you know, which just leads to greater volatility.
All I hear right now is go short las vegas go long robin hood because i the trade's
been going on for a while yeah see the thing is the human condition is one that's filled with
the the the notion that risk taking is something that becomes a natural part like i know people
right now every year they'll go to vegas they'll go to their casinos and everything else on risk it now this newer generation of people i don't see that many people
younger people at the casinos and a lot of these people instead they've got the casino on the phone
you know a lot of the and that's what basically the markets basically turned into right so if you
can mention their odds versus sports betting are much better in stocks exactly exactly. Exactly. And the thing is, the winds are always there.
Social media is always saying, look, I changed my life by buying Palantir at seven.
You know, like those are real world effects that end up getting translated into more people getting into this.
So I think anyone who's the only thing that I see right now is five years from now, there's going to be more retail traders in the market than there are five years ago and there's probably going to be even more 10 years from now
so you remember chris and in in 2020 when when the retail first retail search happened 13 million
new accounts are robbing and everyone said they're going to get killed in the first market correction
dude they survived it and they're they survived 2022 which was peak to trough 27
decline and they survived the dip earlier this year and retail accounts are making new and new
highs that i mean okay are they going to survive a 50 drawdown i mean i don't know but they've
survived two nearly 30 drawdowns in three years you got to give it to some of these 18, 19 year old kids that held through that.
Like I give them props for that.
Like some of these people go to Las Vegas with the intention.
They're going to lose $5,000.
Okay.
To some of these people,
this is not even remote.
I mean,
they've got discretionary income to do get to,
to gamble,
right?
Where are they going to do it?
They used to do it in Vegas.
They used to do it in Atlantic City.
They're just doing it on their app now.
And they have nobody, like an institution,
somebody to answer to, right?
They've got to hit certain metrics, all that.
They have no boss to answer to.
If you blow up your account, you just,
okay, I'll make some more money and refill it.
Exactly.
What I hear from the retail haters is,
well, they haven't seen a real bear market.
Wait for a real bear market
where we get a 50% peak to drop decline,
where stocks really don't rebound,
where stocks go down for five years.
Like, okay, yeah, that's going to kill some retail traders.
That'll kill some institutional traders too.
Like, what are we talking about?
Of course, that kind of scenario
is going to be bad for a lot of people,
including anyone who's net long the market in any way, whether it's your investments or anything. So of course,
that's a possibility and a risk of a real bear market, as some people allude to,
or like a dot-com bubble crash. Of course that could happen. But in the meanwhile,
we also can't scoff at the idea that a 27% peak to trough decline in 2022,
what was the peak to trough decline earlier this year, Evan?
Do you always have that kind of data or AMP?
23%.
Yeah.
That's in a three-year period.
And not to mention two 10% corrections last year to 10-plus percent corrections.
I think one was 12% peak to trough.
Like, this isn't.
That's not like nothing.
You know, if you look up how many peak to trough 27 declines
there are in s&p 500 history it's not like there's millions of them you know so yeah those are
significant market events that retail did survive through retail accounts making new highs retail
participation making new highs yeah have the recoveries been pretty easy on the eyes? Of course, right? COVID, V-shape recovery, 2022 was pretty brutal,
but 2023 and 24 were great years.
So if you managed to batten the hatches through 22,
then you probably were pretty happy about it
in those next two years.
But I'm trying to wrap my mind around
what people want the new retail crowd.
I'm talking about post-2020, right?
Of what people on the new retail crowd. I'm talking about post 2020, right? Of what people on the street or legacy institutional guys want them to prove. Like they've picked some of the best
returning stocks. They've been early on some of the best returning stocks. They've survived through
some pretty significant market pullbacks. Many of these stocks are hitting new all-time highs still five years later.
I can't keep doing this sort of retail applause tour these last couple weeks.
I think it's deserved.
And don't undercut the fact that retail has the same level of access to information that the big guys do now.
I think about 90% of the same amount of information I mean the one thing that
institutions had 15 years ago that retail didn't have is the breadth of information
that's coming out and the speed at which that information is coming out I mean it used to be
something to have a Bloomberg terminal 20 years ago dude Twitter can give you a very I want to
say the same exact thing because Bloomberg is going to go, of course, be way better.
But, you know, there's going to be information out there.
Information brokers are always, always putting things up really fast now.
And retail shareholders, they have access to that same information.
And their tolerance for risk is a lot more wider than it is for the big guys.
The big guys have a lot of rules
that they've placed on themselves,
which make them sort of like,
what is that thing called?
They have their hands tied behind their backs.
I was actually watching a podcast
where during the April lows,
a lot of funds they could not buy into the dip
because they're like,
no, it just broke our risk tolerances,
so we have to sit it out.
Because look, the market's already down.
This is, this is happening.
That's why retail had the opportunity to buy where all the smart money was sitting things out.
Now that things are hitting all time highs again, smart money is like, I better get back
into this market.
And they're buying at all time highs.
You know how many retail posts I saw at those April lows lows from regular retail accounts saying oh my favorite
stock's the 200-day moving average i'm buying you know how many you know how many of those
stocks doubled or tripled yeah right and it's such a simple decision right there's no
insane analysis involved just one of their favorite stocks they see it at the 200-day
moving average they buy it and they get rewarded for it. And like, I mean, dude, your point, Chris,
about this equalization of information, you can go to an LLM now, like, okay, I've been,
I'm a pretty young guy, but I've been doing this for most of my adult life. I've been doing this
for over a decade. If you asked me six years ago when I was researching stocks, hey, what is your
approach like? It involved a lot of reading reading it still does involve a lot of reading
but involved a lot of reading a lot of attempting to figure out how companies are related to some
event or some theme trying to dig through find tickers a lot of google searching and reading
random web pages that was my research process since llms like it is way easier. Like it saves me hours of time. Like I can go through
where I used to be able to go through five stocks. I can go now go through 20 stocks in the same
amount of time. Like that's an enormous change in the ability to consume information. And even if
you don't know how to use LLMs well, which most people have no idea how to use them effectively, but even if you don't know how to use them well, the average
retail trader or investor can feed a PR or an 8K or whatever to an LLM and say, tell me the impacts
of this, or tell me five mid cap stocks that are directly related to this that could see a material
financial impact. You could just ask that to an LLM and get five tickers. That would take hours to do prior to
that, literally hours, to find a sophisticated list of five relevant smid cap stocks to a very
specific thematic. Now you can do it in five minutes. that changes the way people are able to participate in markets and
it changes the efficacy of retail trading like retail was long mocked in the 90s and early 2000s
and stuff as this like sheepish crowd because their access to information was far inferior to
wall street and it still is inferior i'm not implying that wall street analysts don't have
superior information they certainly do i'm not making that implication i that's the reason i read wall street research
still to this day and will continue to but the gap between retail knowledge and institutional
knowledge has certainly closed not closed completely but it has shortened right one of and that is that uh performance yeah sorry go for it um have you
have you used a fiscal ai uh fiscal dot ai like dude i've been using that it is awesome all the
earnings calls everything and now it has an ai like assessment tool right next to it so that
you can have an entire earnings transcript right like seconds. And then right next to it is like an entire AI overview of the entire thing.
Dude, I'm telling you the amount of tooling that's being built right now is insane.
I love fiscal AI.
I've been using it since like for the last like 30, 40 days.
It's amazing.
You know, I pay a little bit for it and it's, it's, but it's, it's a tool that's worth using.
It has AI integration into it and just like you said uh stock talk you can just ask things to it
and be like okay give me a watch list of the like you know 10 largest market cap companies in this
sector done two seconds it gives you an entire watch list you can say find me all the companies
that have pe's that are less than uh oh my god the Cowboys are trading Parsons to the Packers.
No way.
Oh my God.
Well, we got two...
Emp is gone, but what a loser.
Four-year, $160 million or something,
so I guess they didn't want to give him $45 million.
Dude, I have a parsons jersey too dude
don't burn it don't burn it right now
we're lucky we have an awesome stadium because that's lame dude
wow i'm annoyed about that
yeah how do you feel about it going to the packers
sorry chris i can't I didn't say that.
That pissed me off.
Sorry.
We appreciate you, Chris.
That honestly just staggered the whole spaces.
Any conversation that was going on there, done.
Destroyed.
So, Cowboys.
We'll see you for that first overall pick.
Who's going to have more wins this year?
The Jets or the Cowboys?
Watch out.
We're a risky team.
Provoke us suck.
I appreciate all of you guys for hanging out with us.
Truth is, I got some – you heard the family stuff at the start of the spaces,
so it's an interesting one.
But, yeah, I genuinely enjoyed this conversation.
It was very different than we normally go, just kind of going through the brokers and different things like that honestly
and this is a good conversation to have every once in a while but i appreciate you all for for
joining in if you guys have any words or stuff like that don't have a super hard cut off but
um yeah stock talk come to you first, though, if there's anything you want to leave the people with, anything you're watching for tomorrow.
No, it was a nice day for Arrow, like I mentioned earlier.
That's a new drone play that I got into.
I think the thing that makes this thing most interesting is not only that,
wow, Affirm is ripping after hours.
I just saw that on my desk, too.
I think Arrow is is interesting mostly because it's locked at a six million float until
december that's why i think it's most interesting as a trade but really importantly is their rq 35
hydron program which a lot of people are not familiar with but it's basically germany's favorite drone um and
there's clearly been an agreement between nato and the united states about drone additional
drone deployment to ukraine and the hydron has already been deployed and battle tested in ukraine
you look at most of the pure play drone stocks on the market and they're very speculative you know many of them
are pre-revenue or some of them are even pre-product and they've run three four five hundred percent
right like aero is a relatively new ipo you know it ran hard right off um the initial ipo
you know first two days i think it was like bright green but then it peeled back down you know 921 emas emerged 50
day just recently emerged in the last three sessions and it's stuck price stuck perfectly
above all the new newly minted moving averages there's a nice sort of flag slash consolidation
look coming out of the ipo and you're sitting at a 6 million share float on a
700 million market cap with battle tested drones in Ukraine. Like it just feels like it felt like
a no brainer. So, you know, I got it in 2284 stock was trading 2579 as of today's close. So I'm up,
what are we up here? 12% on shares so far. Haven't sold any. any um i don't have options on this there's just shares
the um but yeah i think this thing could comfortably make a room to make a move to 29
um which is the highs from uh late july and if it breaks that then you know the it'll look really
really good you know if it comes if the action
here comes into sort of a sort of cup cupping action into that 29 spot maybe even we maybe see
a little bit of a handle there at the end i wouldn't mind that either and then break a break
higher would be really nice look so um letting this one develop technical structure could be a
little bit more mature you know i tap tech usually don't get into IPOs around this time, but we got in last week and it's working nicely so far.
So that was a nice action to see today.
LEU had great action today too.
You know, I was talking about watching the 21 week
on this thing on the pullback.
I marked 161 as a potential buy spot for dip ads
for our community.
The stock came down to 162.10 at the spot for dip ads for our community.
The stock came down to 162.10 at the lows.
So basically a dollar off.
But since then, it's $50 higher.
Closed 209 today.
Confirmed the 50-day recapture today.
So two sessions ago, we got a push through to 211.
Then yesterday, stock was red, pulled back into the 21 EMA perfectly to the penny almost. And then today we get that springboard action off the 50 with the lows pretty much right on the 50 day after a healthy pullback and um man the monthly chart on that thing i mean
that's a hell of a monthly chart there's a couple monthly charts like leu is one monthly chart where you zoom out 25 years and look at the monthly and your mind will be blown kratos is another one where
you zoom out 25 years and look at the monthly and your mind will be blown uh energy fuels you you
that's another one that hasn't been public for 25 years but you zoom out 15 years on that you
look at the monthly and your mind will be blown these are all stocks where all the volume is on
the far right side of the chart on the monthly and they're breaking out of major multi-decade
bases like that is a rare look and those three names i mentioned are three examples
of that but there's other names in my portfolio that have similar looks to that that's like
when i'm looking for swing trades that's the sort of monthly look i'm looking for i want all the
volume to be on my side of the chart right where i'm i want the volume to be where i'm getting
interested in in the in the stock and i want it to be so significant to the historical volume that you can't ignore it. And with all three of those names, Centris,
Kratos, Energy Fuels, they all have those monthly looks. So I'm very tolerable in the volatility of
these things for that reason. Energy Fuels at a minus 18% day like last week uh i sat through that the stock rebounded 50 off the loads of that candle
right so you have to know what you own you have to i think zoom out sometimes and look at those
monthly charts and get perspective but um yeah it was it was a really nice week for a lot of my names
and you know i'm almost back to 150 year-to-date performance now
i'm so happy with the overall performance as well i think there are going to be a couple more names
that i add in the next few weeks there's like six names right right now i have my short list so
i'll let you guys know on these spaces if and when i do add those but um i'm going to do some
more research over the weekend on a few of them oh Oh, Penn, which, you know, I know it's been quiet, but I
started talking about Penn here when it was 18. That was my entry, 1805. That stock traded 20
today. And look at this action off the 200 day for Penn, right? So since the 100-day test, which was at 1650 mid-August, right, the stock has had 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13.
11 out of the past 13 sessions green, ripping through the 200-day moving average.
And in fact, on the 200-day break, you got a nice clean retest literally two sessions after.
on the 200-day break, you got a nice clean retest literally two sessions after.
You got the 200-day break, a little bit of a red candle,
and then you came back on the lows of the third session after retest at 1820,
which was like to the penny on the 200-day, and then the stock took off.
I've talked about the pen story plenty here.
I've tweeted about it as well.
But as you guys know, they're running the ESPN Bet app,
which launched with the new ESPN app.
And for those that have been looked at it or looked into it, the betting integrations are aggressive.
They are aggressive.
Like if you even click a player stat profiles, they're showing you prop bets on the bottom and links to it.
So I think Penn is going to see incremental market share increase from the
heavy integration that Disney's doing with betting in all of their media now. And I think their
acquisitions of NFL Network and Red Zone will only accelerate that push towards betting. So
Penn continues to look great, obviously a little bit extended now. The entry was a lot more ideal
near 18 where we got in. But if you are looking to get into this thing i think maybe a soft pull back into the 90 may might be a nice spot to do it uh but obviously a bit extended
with 11 out of 13 of the past sessions green but a quiet performer but performing on the lesson
has exhibited relative strength on a lot of days in the market where not only where its casino
peers read but the broader markets were read stock Stock found a way to close green on several
of those sessions. So that thing still looks great. Genius, bit of a consolidation past few
sessions, which is healthy after this big move from the 9s to the 13s. Holding the 9 EMA as of
today's close at 12.83, 9 EMA is at $12.79.
I like that.
I'd like to see the weekly 9 catch up a little bit more. Weekly 9 sitting at $11.90, stock sitting at $12.80,
but it's not necessary for price to push higher.
So if it wants to just stick to its daily structure
and just keep grinding higher, that's fine with me too,
but some healthy consolidation there.
And same thing for Lyft on the consolidation side.
Lyft did peak its head on the weekly through the 200-week moving average
for the first time ever on last week's close.
And today, a little bit of a soft rejection there, but on low volume.
And I'm not really concerned about it because the daily structure
is still perfectly intact.
Nine EMA tests near the lows today, and it held. Nine EMA sitting at 16.10,
stock closed 16.13 on Lyft. So I think that's just some healthy consolidation there too. I mean,
keep in mind, stock moved post earnings from 13.50 to 17.50. So a bit of a cool off is not
a big deal on that one, in my opinion. I think USAR, like I said, I took a starter in that
today, just a 4% position, but they had a short report like 10 days ago, stock fell from like 20
down to the 17 area. I don't think the short report really does anything to refute the value
of the round top asset. So I do like the structure here. I think volume profile is pretty clear accumulation.
I think you can take an easy risk, or at least I thought you could today, off the 21 EMA. So
you're risking down to 15, 17. So you're risking 15 cents on the, or sorry, 25 cents on the trade
for a potential move back up to the highs near 19 or 20, that's a good RR in my view. So I took a starter on that.
If it gives up the 21 EMA, I'll cut it for like a very, very small loss, right?
From a 15-40 entry to a 15-17, 21 EMA forfeit, that'd be a nothing burger.
So I don't mind taking a little bit of risk on that one, seeing if it rebounds into next week and gives me some some room um materion i've been talking about
that one in a while but it's just consolidating um still above the 90 ma weekly structure still
looks fantastic in fact the weekly structure on this thing was really really beautiful as it broke
out like it pushed above the 200 and then confirmed it pushed above the 100 confirmed it and it was
now still floating above 110 the calls were so mispriced on this thing on the way up i wish they
were more liquid because i would have seized that opportunity but the calls were so mispriced on
this thing on the 200 day breakout um like the september's back in uh july we're trading at like
four bucks the september 105s when the stock was trading like
102 it was ridiculous but anyway um that thing still looks great still so i like all my names
still they all the technical structure looks good on everything still um and nothing's really bugging
me or concerning me and you know on a week like this where most of my names had big, big moves to the upside. There's not a lot to complain about. So yeah, that's kind of an overview of some of my stocks,
not all my names, but some of my names that had some interesting action this week.
Nebius, you know, continues to hold up really, really well. I thought it would actually trade
down today off the NVIDIA report, but man man this thing just loves to do this where it just graduates in price action like you know we got in earlier
this year in may at under 25 and first it made this big leg up into the 40s had this nice sort
of flagging high and tight action then pushed up into the 50s did the same thing obviously you
got a little bit of a deeper dip down to 43 near the 50 day on that action but pulled back up
consolidated and this huge move up and now it's doing the same thing again and this cup's a little
tighter and it's coming back up into the 73 area but nebius just has incredible strength i think
the market cap's getting a little a little long in the tooth here, but
I intended this to be a core position when I opened it at a much smaller market cap.
The stock has tripled since we opened it, but it's run a little too far too fast for my taste,
but I'm not going to sell it because I want to hold it. I want to let the story mature.
So I'm ready for a pullback on this thing, but
you know, the chart doesn't look like it wants one yet. So I guess we'll continue to ride the
wave, but I'd love for it to come back down into the thirties or forties. So I could add some more,
but I don't know. I may not get that opportunity unless the market's correct significantly.
So yeah, I like all my stuff. I have a tighter book than I had a couple weeks ago,
and I like all my stuff a lot.
I have some positions that are more on a shorter leash,
like I mentioned, like some of these newer spots I opened
that are on a shorter leash
because they're just not as high conviction.
I see Sam's up here.
I imagine he wants to talk about Nebius.
What's up, Sam?
What's up, Sam?
Are you hearing Sam?
Because I'm not.
I'm not.
All right. But yeah, that's pretty much it for me i appreciate you stock talk i am gonna have to head off here i was looking at a couple of names
shout out leu i was looking through my portfolio and i basically do i was picturing stock talk
saying based on what names i'm seeing here guys it was a mostly green day but i had 17
at a 17 names green what what this is stock
picking for you you know uh great day yeah yeah you're getting it you're getting it yeah yeah
ellie you had a good day though some interesting stuff going on i i appreciate you appreciate all
the speakers make sure you're following jaguar make sure you're following sam stock talk uh and
if you enjoy live free conversations make sure sure you're following this Stocks on Spaces account.
We'll be back live again on Monday, 3 p.m. Eastern.
This whole space is recorded.
I appreciate you all.
Have a great time.
Get rekt to...
Listen, you know what?
I'll take a step back.
I'm a Jets fan.
I'm a Mets fan.
I'm a Knicks fan.
I'm a Rangers fan.
I know the pain, so I understand it.
Difficult times,
but you will,
you'll get through this and you're,
you'll watch your Cowboys lose again.
Go Jets.
Great spaces team.
Goodbye. Thank you.
