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STOCK MARKET TALK
Recorded: Aug. 25, 2025 Duration: 0:24:58Space Recording
Full Transcription
all right that was my fault probably i don't know but that was probably gonna happen at some point
i appreciate you all for uh maybe coming back and hanging out with us.
I hope we can get Ali, Kevin, Wolfie, Sam, all those people who were on that conversation just there.
I did send them out an invite, so we'll see.
Yep, rugging on the spaces.
But we'll give them a minute to get in here.
I'm looking at a photo right now of the South Korean president talking
with Jensen Wong today. I think this is at the White House. My computer's also lagging now too.
What a great time. What a wonderful thing. But let's hope some of our friends come in and join
us back up here. Yeah, that's giving me an error.
That's frustrating.
Let's see if this is working.
One second.
Let me send out a couple of invites.
Sorry, guys. yeah this is rough on my computer I hope you guys can hear me now let's see let's also send this one out and if you get there we go okay
by the way that story that i read out earlier of the AMD chief accounting officer leaving, they ended up joining Skyworks, SWKS was that company, as a chief financial officer.
I'm looking at a Form 4 for Mark Benioff, similar to the Lisa Sue one, but it's pretty small actually, so not much there.
Disco, they put out a Form 8.
Just restating its bylaws.
What a tough time.
I really killed that conversation.
It was quite a good one.
Sometimes I guess it just happens, but oh well.
Let's exit this.
There we go.
We got Allie coming back up.
Hey, Allie.
Can you hear me?
No. Yeah, if you were going for a while there yeah you were my bad
i rubbed the space she was really getting into it i was so into it guys no no you'll you'll never never know but the gist of it i'll do a very very short one the gist was that i don't think you can
totally ignore inflation because you do have a fed that I don't think you can totally ignore
inflation because you do have a Fed that I don't think is totally aligned here. You can look at the
Fed minutes. There are still concerns about inflation. We have a heck of a lot more data.
If we see that PCE report coming hot, we saw how markets reacted to the PPI print. And PPI,
generally, like, not that big of a deal. So I, if,. So if the Fed does cut in September, which I don't think is a
fully locked in thing, of course, markets would probably disagree with me and react quite
intensely. We didn't see that September rate cut. I don't think it's a locked in thing, though. And
if we do see that cut and inflation is sticky, the questions I'd want to ask Jerome Powell is,
how can you be sure that this isn't
sustained inflation over time? How can you be sure that this is transitory and that you're not
cutting into an environment where we do see sustained inflation? So that was basically the
gist of it. I know there's cracks with the labor market, but I still don't think you can fully
ignore the risk to inflation. Yeah, it is difficult to ignore it I mean but when I'm
looking at when I'm looking at housing per se I mean energy is in a little bit of a run here
especially with um basically India trying to buy more oil from Russia and then the uh peace talks
between Ukraine and Russia aren't really happening or anything like that what we're hearing uh but
at the same time I mean housing market is slowing down dramatically it's kind of like a double-edged sword here too
because if they do cut rates and the housing markets can pick up again will you bring inflation
back up but if they don't cut rates and the housing market isn't is going to collapse but
it'll just keep going down as it's been trending down for quite some time I don't think we've
necessarily seen the effects of AI efficiency when it comes to a lot of companies as well. I mean,
I know a lot of people who, you know, good luck. I mean, like they've been warned, they've lost their
job and stuff over the fact that AI has replaced their job, but not necessarily like, hey, we got
a machine to do it for you. But it's just that a company can run a bit more lean just by building
code using AI, but also be able to speed up the deployment of code to the point where it's like, hey, maybe you don't need all these engineers per se, like where it's actually targeting white collars more than blue collars in anything.
I mean, we've already seen Microsoft basically say that 35% or 40% of their code is written from AI.
And on top of that, they save like about a half a trillion dollars in operating fees just from using AI itself.
So it'll be interesting to see how this continues to play out. save like about a half a trillion dollars in operating fees just from using ai itself so
it'll be interesting to see how this continues to play out and again i still think that we're pretty early in this game and as technology continues to progress it's going to continue
progressing exponentially not not a linear curve more exponential because that's just how technology
is i mean every single year a new model comes out whether it's cpus gpus phones whatever it's always
twice as good as the previous year so if that keeps happening over and over again it creates a curve effect versus a linear effect so
i i don't think that it's going to be like oh my goodness unemployment's going to be at like six
percent next year i think it's going to happen over time but i also think that this is just a
skill you have to pick up as you would have when the computer first came out or when the internet
first came out you know it's going to take. There might be a little bit of a digestive period.
But I do think that, in my opinion, I do think that rates are restrictive right now.
I think it has room to go down.
I don't think that it should be down to 2%.
I think that would be a little too low.
But I think the Fed's target at trying to hit 2.8%, 2.75% probably does sound more reasonable
to come toward the end of next year versus waiting until we start to see probably an
unstoppable weakness when it comes to housing.
For me personally, looking in LA, I've looked at houses and everything, and there's houses
being listed for months that just don't get sold.
And then there's also the rents in a lot of areas
is starting to get pretty high that even people can't even afford to live there. So now there's
a lot of vacancy in terms of rent. Now, it's a little bit skewed when you think of LA versus
like outside the city or the suburbs or anything, but you're seeing a pretty dramatic effect. I know
there is a way of reverting back to the mean per se, because the last in 2022, 2021, 2020, we're very big outliers.
I've never seen a market like that in my entire life.
But at the same time, once we've pivoted from the bottom end of a curve or an oscillator, it has to eventually come back.
And I think that that's where that stabilization is going to come from rates.
I mean, I do think that one to two rate cuts is a little too low for this year. I
think it's going to be three rate cuts. The question is, what about next year and so on?
You know, what is the terminal rate here? That was one thing that he didn't necessarily talk
about too much during that meeting, during the speech on Friday. I do think terminal rates are
probably going to be around 3%. So if we had three more rate cuts this year, that would leave two rate cuts for next year.
The question is also, when are they going to start doing quantitative easing?
So they've stopped quantitative tightening, which in this case is just letting bonds roll off the balance sheet.
When are they going to start the tightening?
I'm sorry, when are they going to start the easing?
That might be something other else that's at play, but we'll see.
But overall,
I think it was pretty dovish. Obviously, you get a lot of, in the minutes that came out from last
Wednesday, people just want the job. They want to be part of the Fed, and they want to be the chair.
So, of course, they're going to vote against those two. But other than that, we are heading
toward a point where it's like, yeah, we need to reset this rate cycle. I think it's pretty clear at this point, there's not going to
be any crazy tariffs being put on that people expected in April. And at this point, holding
up from rates might seem a little bit more of a political agenda than actual fiscal agenda or
monetary agenda. Yeah. And, and I totally agree with the AI productivity gains. I don't think
we're anywhere close to that. And I've even said on this productivity gains. I don't think we're anywhere close to that.
And I've even said on the spaces before how I think certain professions like lawyers,
writers, like you name it, like they are not telling you how much they're using AI in
their everyday jobs and their everyday life.
And it is making that efficiency story play out.
And that only helps GDP growth.
So I do think in the early innings of that.
Housing is interesting because just because the Fed cuts rates doesn't automatically mean that we're going to see mortgage rates go down. I actually believe the last time the Fed cut,
mortgage rates went up because mortgage rates are based on a lot of different things,
expectations really tied to the 10-year, and we kind of see that, you know, oscillate a bit.
Now, of course, over the long term, if we continuously see this expectation of easing, that does have an impact on mortgage rates.
But just even if the Fed cuts by 25 basis points, that doesn't automatically mean, oh, yep, the housing market's going to be reinvigorated again.
Because a lot of that just takes time to work its way through the system. But I definitely, and housing is a big
overarching question when you think about millennials and first-time homebuyers. And this
is something I was thinking about recently. What are the economic ramifications of that?
If you are continuously pushing out years and decades of people having that equity in home
ownership and they're renting for longer, sometimes years, decades
longer than what we saw, you know, even 50 years ago.
What is the long-term ramifications of that?
And that's something that I think you're going to start to hear more of because we're at
this point where a lot of people can't afford homes and they're just renting.
Does that have an impact on the economy
when my parents' generation,
they're buying homes very early on,
like you're 30 and you don't have to purchase a home.
What is that in today's day and age, that's very rare.
So what does that mean in terms of wealth
and the consumer and spending behavior
and all those types of patterns,
I think is a really important
point and why the housing market is so important to this economy and the linchpin for a lot of
different policy shifts that I think we'll see. And also, will the federal side get involved? Do
we need government policy to help us out here too? Like who, who knows, but that is a big question mark that I have,
especially, you know, as, as a young millennial myself, I see it among my friends and it just
makes me think how that might change the calculus of things in the future. Yeah, definitely agree.
Definitely a time for a little bit of pause, kind of reassess the strategy here. I mean,
Time for a little bit of pause, kind of reassess the strategy here.
I mean, got to admit, though, I was not the only bearish one last week.
And I was just sentiment-wise.
I was not positioning for anything.
But at the same time, I don't know.
What if what we saw on Friday was kind of the other side of that action?
Maybe positioning was two offsides.
It just came rushing back in on friday for a two percent update
and four percent iwm i mean even looking at today even though the iwm is down like one percent
it's only a part of the gains that it gave up on friday i think we we're still up a lot crypto
though was the big pullback that i saw in terms of liquidity and taking that liquidity gauge i'm not
i'm not sure exactly what's going to happen. And the seasonality thing, plus we got window dressing coming toward the end of the week.
Last trading day of the month, I believe, is Friday.
So it'll be interesting to see how those things turn out.
And also NVIDIA on Wednesday.
We also have a lot more earnings coming up other than just NVIDIA, like CrowdStrike, Snowflake.
A lot of retail names.
Yeah, a lot of retail names, especially on Thursday.
We have uh hold on
there was like a big chip maker i know um sentinel one's reporting marvel technology's reporting on
thursday so it'll just be really interesting to see how this week turns out again still the summer
supposed to be lower volume so we'll see what happens as we uh come into the fall
it's been a crazy summer though i feel like it hasn't been a typical like, oh, chill summer. I
feel like there's been so much news that's been going on because if it's not earning season,
it's the trade and tariff headlines. So I just feel like there's been a lot of volatility.
And the fact that we haven't seen, even if you look at bond yields, right? I mean,
Even if you look at bond yields, right?
I mean, pretty much chilling.
The fact that we haven't seen any crazy long-term ramifications of all these news, like the news flow, we still have stocks that are seeing consistent records.
We still have this market rotation.
We have yields that aren't going crazy.
Like, that's pretty impressive considering a lot of the volatility that we saw just a few months
ago in April.
I know, right?
I wish we...
Sometimes I could think to myself, because I remember trading in 2018 and doing all that.
It's just, you look back and it's like, man, that was nothing compared to today.
And I did not expect coming into this year seeing april like
yeah this this year has just been a roller coaster yes yes keeping us all very busy for sure
by the way there is this u.s uh south korea summit that's going on at the white house i'm
seeing jensen wong is there so uh i wonder if we get any headlines. Boeing got a headline out of that one, so that's something that I am keeping an eye on.
We have GDP revisions to watch this week, maybe initial jobless claims.
So there is information in different areas, and there is Fed speakers.
I believe we had Fed Logan speaking also during this.
I didn't see any squawks that really stood out too much to me.
It doesn't mean that there aren't some other stuff that people are watching.
So definitely a little bit of an interesting macro week, not that we ever get too far away me it doesn't mean that there aren't some some other stuff that people are watching so definitely a little bit of an interesting macro week not that we ever get too far away from it
um the uh the theme that logical and we've kind of been talking a little bit about this rate cut
theme and being here and some sectors that might benefit the home builders one is one conversation
that we've had down here that i find interesting. Even just small caps and fintech names,
I took a little trade on Rivian,
a little maybe long-term swing.
I don't know.
We'll see if that in the, you know,
big if it happens, small opportunity.
I don't know what we want to call that portfolio,
but I don't know.
I kind of took it as that rate-cutting cycle
starting to be here.
Maybe the first six, eight, whatever months it is
till Powell's kind of sits down a little bit,
is a little slower,
but it seems like a trend that's happening.
So I am looking for some plays into it.
RKT was another one I've been playing through,
SoFi a little bit too,
maybe even in Ethereum.
I don't know.
There's a lot of ways to play it,
but it seems,
there's a couple,
there's a decent amount of names
that just have not done anything for the last, since COVID.'ll see maybe it's their time but this time is different yeah
speaking of home builders what are your guys thoughts on open door and is it a meme stock
or is this or is this not a meme stock um i'm not informed to give a good answer there my bias like my bias is it's a meme stock but
the real answer is i haven't done the full full work into it the way it's being promoted
i mean it seems to be a little meme i mean but it is what it is it's not so i have been playing
a theme through rkt uh rocket companies which is like i don't know but not not as much meme who
knows if people
do well, but yeah, Open Door is not something I've jumped into myself.
Yeah, there's been so much debate about this in my own circles, and that's why I'm like,
so is it a meme stock or is it not? But I just think it also just speaks to just the
overall risk on rally, speculative optimism speculative optimism i think in this rally too
i personally do not think bmnr is a meme stock that is one that i am a fan of we'll see if it
ends up working out as well i have no idea i'm not i'm not the expert up here who normally should
be giving all the plays we'll see though uh bmnr is what i'm intrigued by oh yeah
yeah yeah one to watch um ali what do you think is gonna be the
big event this week is it that pce that you're watching towards or anything else that's really
catching your radar i think it's gonna be nvidia yeah i think nvidia will probably be the biggest
event i mean if pce surprises significantly to the upside. I think you have more questions and more of a debate,
but if it comes roughly in line,
I think it was sort of just reaffirm what Powell said.
But to me, it's Nvidia heading into Labor Day.
I think if we see a strong earnings report,
that's gonna lead to a nice pop in stocks.
I do wonder with Nvidia how much has been priced in
if shares over 30 since the start of the year obviously we heard from the hyperscalers we've
seen this you know and the one thing that does maybe have going for it that was whatever the
china story the fact that they took a 5.5 billion or whatever write down what it was and they were
able to go in and um and they were able to go in and um and they were
able to go in and get some of those sales and we'll see how much and maybe that that write down
changes um yeah but but yeah so possible stuff there yeah and like guidance too i mean obviously
everyone's used to them beating and raise beat raise um so that that'll be something to watch
and related to the friend story are they going to give china
guidance well will that write down do a little better what's the status of the h20 chips so
there there should be a lot to chew on from that earnings report and then obviously the call and
uh jensen long's interviews which he's talking to yahoo Finance actually so we're really excited about that this year earnings?
he'll be on with us on Wednesday
there we go
shameless plug
shameless plug
are you doing it or you're just
I'm not doing it
it's our tech editor Dan Halley
along with Julie Hyman
one of our anchors
so it's exciting
we'll have a lot of good stuff to talk about, I'm sure.
Very nice, very nice.
Maybe you come on after that or something.
We'll talk to you.
We appreciate you as always.
Of course.
Seb, I want to bring you into the conversation.
I don't know if you have any thoughts, conversation
as we're heading to the last part of this.
Any stuff you want to leave people with?
Well, looks like Bitcoin finally broke below 110k um right in the middle of this conversation too so this is pretty
interesting seeing crypto break down over here well now that's gonna pan out tomorrow anyways
um earnings this week again i think it's gonna be an option selling events um i don't think
anything's gonna come out in the earnings that's going to make the market panic. You just dump 5% after that. I mean, it could, but I feel like everything's laid on the
table when it comes to that, especially when you have China basically telling their own companies
to not buy NVIDIA chips or have at least exposure to China chips by 60% or something like that.
I mean, definitely trying to put a little bit of foot out there, trying to take outS. dependency so that way they have a little bit of power when it comes to negotiation.
At least that's where I think the aspect is.
I mean, if they're basically saying that all the companies in China want NVIDIA chips, which has to be the case, like you cannot compete with NVIDIA chips, even the underclockeded ones then where's negotiating power when it comes
to that and then too you know wouldn't you want it to be like well we'll let we'll lift up more
export controls and we'll we'll let our people buy more of your chips you just have to give us a b and
c right so like they have to have that leverage on there so of course they're going to be talking
about that but at the same time it just this comes during i can't help but to just think like this
is coming during a really weird time where we are coming to seasonality.
We're seeing crypto breakdown here, which is probably the best liquidity gauge you can see in the market right now.
We're seeing the dollar basically come back from its pivot lows.
Actually, let's see here.
Yeah, the dollar had a little bit of a comeback today is about 72 basis points, which is a pretty decent move for the dollar.
I'm more
interested to see how gold is going to react here i mean it did do a little bit of recovery back in
the 3400 range but i think it's in a massive consolidation phase since last april uh after
it had its massive leg up looks like a bullfike here on the long-term weekly chart anyway but um
yeah i mean could we could just be going sideways I mean, there is nothing wrong with going sideways.
We don't have to go straight up.
But, again, you look under the hood, you look at the sectors in SB500,
pretty much all the defensives are outperforming all of tech and high beta today.
So, you know, continuing to see the same thing we've been seeing for the last couple of weeks,
just more in an extended time frame.
I'm interested to see how things pan out this week.
You know, I mean mean if you ask me
today was just a really big chop fest um so definitely not trading that noise or anything
but yeah i mean everyone's really waiting for wednesday and then we got a short week next week
so i don't think that really much is gonna happen next week either we'll see
appreciate you sam uh definitely by the way you should make sure you're following sam and ali my
bad i rug in the spaces everybody but the last one's recorded you can come and listen to this
as well you should make sure you're following all the speakers ali is there anything you want to
kind of leave the people with um any kind of stuff you're watching this week any any good stuff like
that yeah and i think just kind of reiterate what we said. I love that line. There's nothing wrong with going sideways.
I do think if we go up with NVIDIA and then down with BZ, who knows where we'll land.
But it does feel like markets are taking a bit of a breather now after that crazy melt
that we saw on Friday.
And even though we gave up some gains in different areas, I still think we've made some significant strides.
When you look at small caps, when you look at Ethereum, obviously with Bitcoin, that is kind of wild to see it trade below $110,000.
But at the same time, it is a volatile stock.
And I remember just in the winter, was what was it around like 70 or
80k like it's just been kind of wild how much it's grown and there have been a lot of tailwinds
fueling a lot of these uh crypto names so overall yeah it's kind of a nothing burger day I think in
the long run for, for markets here,
but we'll,
we'll keep tracking and see what comes out of these,
these reports this week for,
from earnings.
And then obviously PCE on Friday.
Yeah.
It's not that surprising when you have a lot of big events coming up later in
this week,
Wednesday,
Friday morning,
Wednesday after the close.
So yeah.
Hey,
listen,
if tomorrow is like that too,
wouldn't be totally surprised a headline
random maybe a random trump headline might drive some random sectors you never know but uh that's
the market for the next couple days all right we do also have some stock picking for the week
coming up from the uh the wolf account they'll be doing that basically a bunch of people will
play a little game pick do uh 30 minutes of
market sentiment then do 30 minutes of picking two stocks that uh they'll play for the week
and uh yeah so if you guys enjoy that type of content go check that out on the wolf account
make sure you're following ally and sam uh i rugged the spaces the the previous one so if you go in
on the stocks on spaces profile the whole recording for the last space, which
was an hour and a half, great conversation.
We had Scott and we had Ali and Sam and Logical and so many other people, Wolfie and a bunch
of others.
That was a great conversation.
And you can come in and listen to the recording on this one.
But yeah, I appreciate each and every single one of you.
I am watching one thing we didn't talk that much about this week and we'll see.
Apple, their iPhone launch event should be in about two weeks we maybe talked about this a
little bit watch out for that but this is the week where the invites normally go out so i don't know
if we're gonna get a little ai a little apple hype now might not be a horrible time for it
i appreciate you all wolf account we'll be having some content opening up in about five minutes or
so and uh and yeah but thank you all thanks sam thanks ali we'll catch you all. Wolf account, we'll be having some content opening up in about five minutes or so. And yeah, but thank you all.
Thanks, Sam. Thanks, Allie.
We'll catch you all tomorrow.
Same time, same place.
Appreciate you guys. Have a great one.
