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STOCK MARKET TALK
Recorded: Jan. 21, 2026 Duration: 2:25:43Space Recording
Short Summary
In a recent discussion, key insights emerged regarding the stock market's recovery, with President Trump's strategic partnership announcements influencing positive trends. The conversation also highlighted growth opportunities in both traditional markets and cryptocurrencies, emphasizing the potential for significant wealth generation in the current economic climate.
Full Transcription
Thank you. hello hello what is up everybody i hope you guys are all doing well we had a little bit of a
turnaround to wednesday a turnaround uh wednesday a taco wednesday some could call it but we do have
the stock market moving higher here.
After a Truth Social post, let me get the Truth Social post up and we can read it out to start out this spaces. But I hope everybody is doing well. Obviously, I'm sure that people who are
positioned to the upside have more long portfolios are excited today. We will talk through that.
I appreciate everyone for coming on and joining us here. We had a lot of news in the last 5 10 15 20 minutes whatever it was i don't know if these
people were waiting for a turnaround or something but uh we did have this truth social post from
president trump for anyone who missed it let's cancel some stuff let me even just get it pinned
up with a nest above i know the wolf account which is up here, posted it.
All right, let's get that news posted up there.
President Trump, based upon a very productive meeting that I have had with the Secretary General of NATO, Mark Root,
we have formed the framework of a future deal with respect to Greenland and, in fact, the entire Arctic region.
He continues on to say, based upon this understanding, I will not be imposing the tariffs which we were scheduled to go into effect. Let me get exit out of this. I was trying to move some money over from the ETF portfolio into the regular stock portfolio. But
as everyone who can go in and look at your portfolio, that was the news that started to
turn us around today. Individual stock portfolio is now up about 2.5%, 2.8%. Let's see over here.
The ETF portfolio is up 1.5%.
So a little bit of a turnaround.
Thanks to a little bit of a taco day.
Let's see how far we are from all-time highs.
I should have came in a little bit more prepared on this one,
but we had some meetings.
had some meetings mike how you doing sir
Mike, how are you doing, sir?
can you hear me now yep i got you oh good how you doing evan i'm doing well
tell me uh how far are we from all-time highs right here
um i don't know we're at the eight day the all-time high is 6.9609 on the spy so
you know we're not that far away from it
not even 10 handles 10 bucks away from here at this point so um you know this is what the market
was waiting for all day uh obviously you know and he does pay attention to the markets i keep telling
everybody that right he always and he talked about it in his speech today that was one hell of a long
rambling speech uh but he talked about it and you know he. That was one hell of a long rambling speech.
But he talked about it and he even said how many times the market hit an all-time high and markets just off the highs.
It's just a little blip.
But he knew he had to make a deal.
He knew he wasn't going to get what he wanted.
We don't know what happened.
We might have just bought Greenland.
No, we didn't buy Greenland. There was no Danish.
This is a deal with NATO deals with NATO to militarize parts of Greenland and put in a defense system up there and put more troops in place.
I'm guaranteeing you that's what it is.
But it could be wrong.
You know, there's no there's no buying it from NATO.
It's Denmark's country.
You can't buy it without them wanting to sell it.
And Greenland doesn't want to be sold to the United States.
But besides from that, you look around today.
Again, this day was a day of names.
And even before everything, there was names to play today.
NVIDIA's had a nice day.
Intel and AMD had nice days again here.
You know, nice moves on there, on those names.
Netflix, despite a report they did hate it, they have bought a lot of that weakness back. It's
back up to 84. Fly's fighting the 8 in the 21 day here. If you're really looking to see what's
going on, look at the bonds. The rally on bonds today is exactly what we needed. Bonds were looking
like death here this morning, up now nicely. The VIX is down on the lows and well back inside the
Bollinger Bands. That is typically a risk on signal.
And so, you know, you look around and say, okay, so we got through this.
And after this, we have GDP tomorrow with PCE.
Question is, are we going right back to all-time highs?
I mean, I'm looking at this GDP Atlanta Fed thing.
It's saying 5.4% come in.
Does any of this data even matter?
And we were talking about earnings that matter.
We're wearing a macro geopolitical thing.
I mean, I guess people were talking about Japan, but.
Yeah, but they've been talking about it.
But, you know, I haven't seen, you know, look at the move here off of the Greenland.
Everybody's trying to say this is Japan.
It's not Greenland.
Well, look at the move we just had off of this.
I think, you know, people don't want to realize sometimes, you know, the market doesn't want more tariffs.
It's tired of this.
It doesn't want this constant tariff battle.
For me, I don't see any reason we don't except for earnings.
Earnings are going to dictate our move now.
You know, if you're really looking to see what this market's going to do going forward,
it's going to be all about earnings, earnings, and earnings.
And so far, they haven't been all that great.
Now, you know, we only have a small sample size so far.
Next week, we're really starting to get into the heat of it.
I know Monitiv has data on the earnings, and I'm pretty sure
saying they have not been so great is
not fully accurate. I think they've been pretty
solid.
Well, I mean,
they didn't like the banks
other than J.P. Morgan and Goldman Sachs.
You know, J&J
was fixed. How Sachs move off of
earnings and the earnings themselves aren't always the same thing,
but I hear what you're saying.
Well, I mean, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley went to all-time highs, and the other four dropped hard.
So, you know, I mean, obviously they didn't like it.
You know, again, it's not about whether they beat.
It's their guidance or what they're saying from pulling forward.
And that hasn't been so great.
You know, Netflix's guidance is back-loaded for the second half of the year.
At the beginning of the year, they guided down for the next quarter,
and they're suspending their buyback.
A lot of stuff like that going on here.
So we'll see.
But overall, the market holding in here, we're just back up into the 8 to 21 day.
And as long as we close up in this area and we don't come raging back down to the close,
I would think it'd be a risk on environment here going forward.
What's up, Monitif?
We'll keep going around.
What's the take on earnings season so far?
Earnings themselves, just fine.
We are doing exactly what we were expected to do.
Even guidance, for that matter, is fine.
It's what I expected.
It's what I've been calling out that we should expect
a very bullish 2026 full year guidance
starting with a weak first half guidance.
Then that's what you're starting to see.
And there's a lot of reasons for that.
I don't want to go into that.
This is not the space for it.
But so far, all the big ones are not surprising anything negative.
So, yeah, yesterday Netflix was all really about the, you know, the suspension of buybacks.
That's it. That's the only thing that's solidly negative.
only thing that's solidly negative and that's around their uh their uh their uh you know
acquisition of uh or attempted acquisition of uh you know wb so that's that but you also have to
take in the context of where the price is relative to you know to to to to white you know if if it
had been 130 and they stopped the buybacks, it would have been
a much wider reaction.
But strangely enough,
fundamentally, it's a terrible thing to
stop buybacks here. So I'm not
liking that one. But again,
as far as just
sheer
actual data is concerned, we're
fine. The earnings season is coming
in as expected, a little bit over,
and no bad surprises to date.
I mean, Johnson & Johnson this morning is another story.
Immediately sold off.
But if you look at the details, solid beat and race,
and they said they're managing very well,
even though they made a deal with the government on price controls on their drugs.
Their cancer franchise is doing very well on the growth phase while, you know,
carburetors are starting to, you know, get closer to losing their IP because of
paid expiries, right? So there's a lot of good, but price action is a whole different thing, right?
Like financials, for example, to what options Mike was saying.
It was already priced in, so it's run up a lot.
I mean, some of these financials are run up in a straight line, so there's really not much left that earnings could move them even further.
So it's what it is.
You know, I do expect more of the same.
A lot of sectors have just moved up vertically.
So maybe there's not much left in the tank.
So for anyone who missed the headline and is wondering what's the reason the stock market is moving higher,
we did get a President Trump True Social post talking around that we have formed the framework
of a future deal with respect to Greenland
and in fact the entire Arctic region.
I'm seeing some more quotes coming out right now.
Trump on Greenland tariffs,
grant deal for everybody,
great deal for everybody.
We have a deal concept.
There you go.
But I'm seeing that he was also,
he's to join cnbc or
is on it so also expect trump to speak again today uh probably live from davos on cnbc is
what i'm seeing as well greenland framework is a long-term deal trump greenland framework is a
long-term deal saying it twice okay um yeah so that that is the headline that came in and started
to move the
market higher we are holding on to most of the gains although in the last five ten minutes
basically since we started the spaces the market moving a little bit back but obviously well well
off the lows of the day um yeah we'll see what this power hour ends up turning into so if anyone
has any thoughts on the uh the green, kind of resolving the tariffs, anything
like that, maybe we start the discussion there
and then you can get more
into your topics. Brian, I'll come to you.
All right.
How you doing, buddy? I'm doing
well. How are you? A little more talk
today. You were kind of pushing back on
Options Mike. Watch out. I've never heard this.
Watch out. It was Evan before. Listen,
I'm feeling bullish. I think we're going to all-time highs.
He's honoring.
I don't think this is a thing.
Well, I'm going to add to your thesis.
So look, this isn't about Greenland.
It's about green lights.
Trump's on CNBC now, just as an FYI.
Uh-oh.
Uh-oh.
Okay, well, we'll watch the futures.
It's about green lights, right?
So Trump, I mean, this is a pattern that we've seen for the first year that he's been in office, which we marked this week.
He comes out with some crazy thing, you know, orange light, yellow light, warning, red light.
Oh, no.
And then he gives the green light.
Ah, you know, everything's fine.
And then the market rips.
And that's all that's happening here is he just gave the green light by saying everything's cool i talked to nato
it's going to be great for everyone and the market's ripping so look i uh i've been thinking
about this a lot because i think i'm the person on this call that's been around the longest um
i was there in the 90s and i've been trying to figure out what the analog is for where we're at right now.
Are we in that last inning of the 90s?
Are we in the first part of the 90s?
Where are we at?
I think that we are in a two- to three-year window.
This is really important.
I think we're in a two- to three-year window where people can make generational wealth.
I mean the type of wealth where you
don't have to work again. I saw people during the internet run from the early 90s till the
bubble pop in 2000 do that. Now, I was a little too new to the trading game to take advantage of
that market. I had never seen a market like that, and I've never seen one until the market we're in
now. But what's important about this opportunity is you can't play it in traditional ways.
You can't buy and hold because when the internet bubble blew up in 2000, there were people that were holding on to stocks that didn't get back to their highs for 13, 14, 15 years.
I mean some stocks like Cisco are still not past their 25 year high. So you can't
just buy and hold. You can't trade because these sort of markets, these crazy markets don't obey
traditional buy and sell risk parameters when it comes to trading. It's a very nuanced way you have
to approach these markets. But the number one thing you have to do before anything else is you have to chuck
your preconceived notions about what can happen, about politics, about macro, and you just need
to follow the liquidity. The greatest president in the history of the United States when it ever
came to the stock market was Bill Clinton. And it has nothing to do with him being a Republican or
a Democrat. It has to do with he got the hell out of the way of the market. When the internet bubble
was ripping, when stocks were going through the roof, when new innovation was coming out,
there was no regulation. He didn't try to step in there and control. He just got out of the way.
We have not only that, but a president right now who wants to encourage the market, who wants to, for lack of a better word, goose the market.
And I think in the next two years, if you play this market right, if you're in the right names, if you play correctly and you throw away all your preconceived notions about what could and couldn't happen, how high something can go, whether the macro issues are going to come to haunt us, whether he's a good president or a bad president or whatever. I really think there is maybe a second in my lifetime opportunity
to make serious, serious money. Interesting. So now that you think more knowledge is a different
time in your life, I'm excited to talk more about some of the ways you're expecting to take advantage of that over the next little bit. Yeah. So this is
the great conundrum with life, right? When the internet bubble was here, when we were on that
run to the bubble in the nineties, I was really too young. I didn't have enough capital. I was
new to the markets. Now I'm at the other end of that thing, right? I'm 58.
I've got a family. I've got mortgages. I've got lots of things that I don't want to risk in some
of the ways you might have to go after this market. So I'm trying to find a middle ground
on how this can work. And I think one of the best examples of this, and everyone out there should Google this
person if you don't already know him. His name is Dan Zanger, right? So Dan Zanger was a pool
contractor. He was a very good pool contractor. And he kind of got into trading stocks in the
80s and the 90s. He didn't really know anything about it. He didn't have any background in it.
And he turned $18,000 into like 69 million
audited, by the way. That's not the amazing feat. A lot of people made a shitload of money during
that period. What happened is when the market blew up in 2000, he walked away with about 75%
of that money, right? So it's a way of playing stocks, a momentum way of playing stocks that really throws earnings out the window.
It's all about pattern recognition.
And it's more about approaching a stock as like a campaign.
a stock heavily by selling puts, by writing calls against your position, building a position over
time as you're taking the cost basis down. And then once you're getting those initial moves,
ideally out of big bases, what you're doing is you're laddering out, but into options, right?
So let's say you have a stock, let's just say theoretically, you have something you've been
acquiring, you think it's a great name. It's in a hot space.
You've been selling laddered puts lower.
Sometimes you're getting assigned.
Sometimes you're getting your cost basis knocked down.
You're selling partial calls way out of the money to take your cost basis down as this base forms.
And then the stock rips, let's say, from 5 to 10, and you're in the profit zone.
What you're doing is you're taking 25% of your commons and you're selling them, but you're switching them out for long-term
leaps, right? So you're taking risk down, you're taking cash in, but giving yourself upside. And
this is a very, very structured way of approaching it. And you don't approach it based upon the
market as a whole, you approach it based upon the individual name as a whole.
And you have to be super disciplined.
And there's a lot of aspects to it, of which I will be talking to subscribers until their ears bleed for the next couple months.
But I think we're in a unique market where this sort of approach, if done right, if done consistently, if done with discipline, could really, really have some amazing returns when we look back
two, three years from now.
I appreciate you for the thoughts.
I saw Urkel join us up here.
Urkel, we don't have you on much.
Not too long.
I apologize.
I'll come to you after him.
But Urkel, I just don't get you on too much.
I want to make sure we get some good segments on you.
How are you doing, sir?
What are you watching in this market?
Thank you very much. I want to make sure we get some good segments on you. How are you doing, sir? What are you watching in this market? Thank you very much.
It's been a while.
I've been super busy and I've actually had a lot of meetings lined up during the stocks on spaces.
So I've tried to jump in when I can and I've had to drop off.
So I do apologize.
I do love contributing when I can.
I'm, you know, I posted a spy chart yesterday.
It's holding trend.
And if you've kind of followed this market, anytime there's volatility or uncertainty,
we tend to stretch supports right down into these make or break areas and then catapult right back.
So if you're kind of aware of the market's personality and you know the key levels on a lot of stocks
intuitively, these periods of volatility are great for short-term trading. I'm a swing trader
at heart. I like to accumulate either accumulation or consolidation zones or I like to accumulate
off key support areas. I occasionally trade breakouts,
but that's not my forte. But while I've been kind of sitting on my swings since last week,
I've been day trading or overnight trading a little bit more frequently to take advantage of volatility. So with SPY and the Qs, the SPY support, the key level there was 675, which
it held perfectly this morning in the pre-market. The Qs, I had 606. Those line up with the 20 EMAs
on the weekly timeframes as well, but they also line up with key fib supports and trend lines as well.
So I wasn't surprised to see the markets kind of get stretched to the downside,
get to this make or break level, and then push higher.
We've kind of seen this going back to, you know,
from the April lows and the recoveries and every pullback since then.
So I've been just taking advantage.
I've been trading a lot of the high beta names, CFIR, IRON.
I've just been in and out of those off key support levels
while I'm letting my swings kind of roll out.
I've been very interested in core weave at these levels.
That's a chart I've been watching for some time.
I've started accumulating it today.
I like the breakout on that chart, and I like the support area, this pullback.
So that's one I've kept a keen interest on.
Nebius, I recently trimmed.
I've been watching that as well off that $90 to $100 range.
that $90 to $100 range if it can continue to put in these higher lows.
If it can continue to put in these higher lows.
And with crypto too, like crypto just feels like it's been stuffed down on every single
attempt to run to the upside.
And last week, Bitcoin hit that $97K resistance area and fell right back down.
But with the Clarity Act potentially coming into focus, Trump mentioned that during his speech in Switzerland today as well, how just kind of reinforcing America's position on crypto and wanting to kind of avoid China taking over. and have a more significant upside push here because both Bitcoin and Ethereum have been
basically basing off their or near their 0.618 FIB support levels for the better part of two
months. So generally speaking, significant moves can or often do follow multi-month basing off
these key support levels. So I've kind of kept my eye there. But for the
most part, I've just been swinging my swings, going back to kind of the dull two weeks at the
end of 2025 and into 2026, just waiting for the markets to settle and short term trading last
week and this week and just looking to reaccumulate on significant pullbacks, especially when markets
kind of get stretched to the downside like they did yesterday and today. So, you know, presumably
or assuming that the markets do hold up here now and we do see a more significant bounce follow
through into Thursday and Friday, then I'm looking at continuing to buy and kind of riding this roller coaster up and down.
But, you know, markets continue to remain in an uptrend as well. So a little more active during
periods of volatility, a little less active when trend is kind of, there's less volatility around
trend. But that's kind of where my head's at right now. Just, you know, surviving, thriving as, as we work our way through the volatility.
So you don't enjoy a VIX around 13, over 20, you were getting excited for a day or two.
You know, again, like I made a post on my timeline today about this because I'm a dip
buyer at heart. Like when I started
becoming a little bit more successful in my trading, I developed a system where I was buying
dips off supports and uptrends and it turned into this little scalping system. And eventually I
developed into a swing trader and began to develop more confidence and conviction in my positions and
held for longer periods of time, which led to bigger gains down the road. But, you know,
I like when the VIX spikes and I like when the markets drop down to supports because I'm an
active trader and I tend to trim my swings as I go, I always have some cash on the side. particularly around high beta names or high conviction swings, because they just keep providing me an opportunity to kind of add and trim,
add and trim and keeping this, you know, compounding going in the long term.
So I don't mind it. I don't mind the spikes.
I don't mind the pullbacks as long as markets hold those midterm trend levels,
which they have and continue to do going back to April.
I just kind of look at these as opportunities to buy. And like, you hear the president, I mean,
the White House, I think it was about a month ago, you know, saying, don't be panicking,
the market's going higher. And then you hear Trump today in Switzerland say the stock market's going
to double. And you know, he's probably going to go out of his way to make sure that it probably doesn't double, but that things continue to
trend up. So for me, I'm just looking at that opportunity. Not just double, double in the short
time. In short time, exactly. Yes, exactly. And if you're a believer in guys like Tom Lee, who I've kind of learned to tune out a little bit recently, given some of the some of the recent price targets on Bitcoin and Ethereum, like, you know, generally speaking, the sense is around crypto and the markets, broadly speaking, that we're going higher.
and sentiment does tend to drive a lot of price.
So again, these big dips,
I'm personally looking at them as opportunities.
And if the markets do break trend,
if we do see a more significant pullback,
I do tend to either de-risk or add a hedge
and then start kind of buying again
when things turn back around.
But we really haven't seen that
going back to April. So yeah, you know, I personally like the volatility.
Long term portfolio is a little bit more of a roller coaster rather than a steady
uptrend sometimes during these periods. But overall, and over the long term,
if you're a planned and deliberate trader, if you know
your key technical levels, the opportunities are endless. And we kind of knew this when Trump came
and took office. We knew it would be that kind of market. And it was during the four years of his
prior presidency as well. So if you're well equipped, I think there's going to be, you know,
outside of some of the newer sectors and things people are excited about,
I also think that the volatility itself
is going to breed plenty of opportunity
over the next few years here.
Always great to listen to your call.
You should come more often, man.
I appreciate it.
Thank you very much.
And I try my best and I try and come on
on other days too, but I do also work full time, which I'm hoping to get out of in the near future.
So whenever I get pulled into meetings, unfortunately I have to drop off, but
I do love coming on and I do love contributing and i do thank you for the opportunity to do so as well
so thanks for having me on again hey uh quickly uh more trump comments says uh hopes there will
be no further action on iran and he also says he just ordered 25 additional b2s
there are no b2s they stopped making them 25 years ago. So B21, that's a Northrop thing.
So that's the second program that we've heard confirmation on.
The House reconciliation, the bill has confirmed funding for the Sentinel program,
which is their other mega program.
So B21 and Sentinel, both good news on consecutive days.
Hey, Manitiv, the B-21 Raider,
you're talking the 6th generation stealth bomber, right?
That's right.
I don't want to sound smart here,
but I could have sworn that that still is in the research and development phase.
I believe that they have two prototypes built, but I don't believe that it's mass produced just yet.
No, no, no, that's not correct.
It is in low rate initial production, LRIP.
So we are in the third LRIP already.
So it was a digital first design.
So they compressed the design cycle and they built seven of them in the first cycle or they built seven, you know, one after the other.
There are two that have been delivered to the Air Force and are flying regularly. There are three that are in ground tests and two that are being finished with updates from the first two planes that are delivered.
The second set is already, you know,
I think they ordered 10 more
and now this is the third L rep order.
So it's low rate initial production.
So it's not a prototype anymore.
It is in production.
They also flew it extensively last year.
Where else are you gonna to hear information this deep
on these subjects? I love this. This is great.
Thanks, Brian. Love you too, man.
Yeah, they
had another one delivered late last
year, Stock Talks, so the
expectation is by the second
quarter of this year year it'll be flying
multiple times a week now correct me if i'm wrong also but i remember they were planning to build
like 100 of them by 2030 or it was planning to be mass produced i believe it's also only a fourth
of the cost of the b2 spirit close uh so so the the the number that has been thrown about always by the Air Force is that they need 100.
The whisper number is somewhere between 135 and 180. That is the need-based number.
So it's never been agreed. But the program itself has generally been based on that 100 plane number.
generally been based on that 100 plane number.
And it could be...
So, yes, last year they got an additional $2 billion,
or they spent an additional $2 billion building up,
or starting to build up capacity to increase production
to, I think, they want to produce one every,
or two every three months.
I think that's the goal, 15, something like that.
So not quite one a month, but they are scaling up to that.
The cost is a whole different story.
The first set were delivered under a fixed cost development contract.
under a fixed cost development contract.
But Northrop came in under that.
So the rumored cost of these is just under $540 million apiece.
Real cost might actually be quite a bit lower
lower because they've not updated those numbers yet. And as you get through LRIP, you know,
because they've not updated those numbers yet.
third and fourth phase, you probably start reducing the number. The only reason B2s cost
that much was we never got out of the low rate production. The first two low rate production,
it was killed after that. So they never got time to bring it down. That was an Air Force decision.
So the cost advantages of building a production line never came about, and they killed it.
But it's also expensive to maintain, and they've learned all those lessons and adapted this time.
So roughly about $500 million, let's say, to be you know somewhere in the ballpark of cost
the the initial alrib for the b21 was like two years ago so yeah it's not a prototype they've
been flying it um they i think they now have they had two two or three
in their maiden flights by september of last year so yeah it is it's a real aircraft
what's up the start of the day and the end of the day look very different
uh you know it's been a big topic the stick save everything like that
once you uh you have any thoughts on this turnaround,
obviously we're giving a little bit of a back if you're looking right now.
There's also a lot of random news stories that came out,
which we'll talk about in a second.
But yeah.
Well, yeah, I mean, yesterday we talked about,
we talked about this issue in detail yesterday.
And what I said was that if anyone's going to get Trump to chill out on this,
it's going to be Mark Ruth, the secretary general.
to be Mark Ruth, the secretary general, and that's who got it done. You know, that guy
And that's who got it done.
plays the role that he's in very well, in my opinion. He knows that the United States is
basically the backbone of NATO, and he knows that you can't have the president of the United States
antagonized by NATO. Some other members of NATO seem to not understand that. It's odd to me,
actually, that like some of the other European NATO seem to not understand that. It's odd to me,
actually, that like some of the other European leaders seem to think that like we're just another part of NATO. Like the United States is NATO. And he knows that. And he clearly appealed
to Trump today and got him to back down on, you know, the I don't want to call it hostilities,
because I wouldn't characterize it that way, but got him to back down on the idea of pressuring Europe economically as a consequence of this decision.
And so, yeah, clearly markets like it.
We got a big reversal after that deal was announced.
We were starting to fade on most of the major indexes.
And, yeah, very good day for the portfolio.
Also, Amcor up 9%, OSS up 6%, CINAP for THR, up for Tesla, ENS, VEV.
So yeah, great day for the portfolio.
Good day for stocks in general.
I'm sure everyone's stocks were up today.
But yeah, that's kind of how I expected it to be resolved through Mark Root.
And he seems to be the one that resolved it.
And he seems to be the one that resolved it.
And now we have yet another pausing of tariffs.
And now we have yet another pausing of tariffs.
What I will say is S&P 500 did not recover either the 9 or 21 today.
So you need more positive action at the end of the week, I think,
to fix the appearance of the indexes.
And if you get another green day tomorrow, that'll solve that.
So, you know, I would be patient for that to happen.
But, yeah yeah very good
action today on a lot of names so that's good to see yeah we still have a half an hour and we did
go right into them when we came off that level there today so we could still pro above it today
but i agree we have to reclaim the 8 in the 21 day which we're right where we stopped today
yeah if you pop your head back over there then you know party back game on one day, which we're right where we stopped today.
Yeah, if you pop your head back over there, then, you know, party back.
Game on.
Yeah.
And besides that, one of my favorite signals, the VIX is slammed down well back inside the Bowling Chabans.
You look at the ES right now, it looks like a full-on King-Queen reversal handle setup.
So, got to like that.
Yeah, I mean, I think things look good.
I mean, the action, I mean, again think things look good i mean the action i mean again
i try to focus on the action of my individual names and the action of my individual names is
terrific so i can't i can't bring myself to be concerned by like looking at names that i don't
own and then saying oh you know there's some charts that don't look good that i don't own like
that's just not at the top of my priority list so So the names I own look good. And so that keeps me in a positive attitude about the market until that changes. But
after today's jump, I mean, we had a really nice day-to-day portfolio is almost up 5% today.
I'm at, what am I at year to date now? 46.4% year to date. S&P 500 is up, what, 0.56%.
So that's pretty good outperformance.
But yeah, just going to keep sticking with my names.
Pretty much everything I own is just doing well
and coming back to either all-time highs or local highs.
So that's good to see.
Inersis pushed into 170s today, which is awesome.
That's my largest position.
Well,
Amcor and ENS sort of swap between that spot, but, um, for today it's a nurses. Um, so that's good to see as well. You're there, Evan. Sorry. I was having some problems you're good um
let's uh let's keep it going around stock talk there's no uh obviously no stock picks today but
um we'll circle back on you a little bit i did see logical you're still up here we'll come over
to you then larry let's go you got any thick
quick uh thoughts on the market today yeah i mean obviously yesterday uh you know you fell like a
stone through the 50 day today in the morning it looked like we were going to reclaim it and then
we got rejected that got me a little concerned um to the point where i just added some hedges just
because i feel like that's pretty
much a line in the sand of like, you know, if SPY is below the 50-day, it's worth having a little
bit of protection. But I didn't expect us to taco that quickly. But I guess with, you know,
Davos going on, that could happen like that. So I closed out the hedges, obviously, as we're
headed above the 50-day. I mean, that's just kind of how I see it. It's like above the 50, I won't have any hedges on and we're below it, then I'll have some just a little bit.
Other than that, I think today on the pop, it was a good time for me to reduce some of my lower conviction holdings.
Just because after seeing us be below the 50 day yesterday, I thought if this
market is going to have more downside or more volatility, then I want to make sure that whatever
I do hold, I feel quite confident about. So, you know, that all said, I'm still like 118% long or
something. So, you know, I've been very bullish. I just don't want to, you know, maybe be 130 or
140% long if the market's below the 50 day. So, you know, maybe be 130 or 140% long if the market's below
the 50 days. So, you know, these are just kind of like adjustments I make. But they
don't like necessarily change my tune or anything on the market or my portfolio is just minor
adjustments that make sense to up or down exposure, little by little. Yeah, so other
than that, I agree that I think a lot of names still look really good.
Certain sectors you don't want to touch. Obviously, mega cap tech looks pretty bad,
which is a little concerning because they collectively have a huge market cap.
And that is going to weigh on overall the queues, which is basically a big part of the S&P.
So what you really want to see in an ideal scenario is, you know, SPY just kind of drifts
higher. And maybe it's like, you know, RSP, like equal weighted, you know, SPY XMAG7,
you know, is being very strong. That's where you're seeing the breadth expansion.
But as I'm sure Larry will say,
there's not enough market cap there
compared to the major tech names.
So you do want to see at least those not fall apart.
I think that's somewhat of a requirement.
Meta looks horrific.
Amazon continues to dwindle Microsoft as well. So
these are just not great. But you just need them to hold up. You don't necessarily actually don't
want them to lead. I don't care for them to lead. I just want them to not fall apart. I want them
to be able to go flat to slightly up. Because yeah, if they come down, they will drag the market down
with it. So I think the best case scenario is you have the market grind higher. But, you know,
basically, you get the that will allow you to play in the high beta sandbox, which has clearly been
working early in the year. And yeah, yeah, a market where small caps, mid caps are the ones
that are seeing a lot of the gains. I love when the market is not just a few names, it's a lot
of names that are working. And so it's a good environment. Today was a little bit of like a
make or break point, I think, in terms of near-term volatility. Clearly, we resolved it to the upside
via Trump's comments today, which essentially de-escalated the current situation. And so I
feel like we got the green light to go higher until we get to inevitably our next, you know,
whatever that is that comes up and God knows what he'll do. But yeah, I mean, it's a midterm election year.
I'd expect, you know, I've been expecting a good Q1, a decent H1.
I've expected maybe some sort of correction in probably Q2 somewhere.
I think that makes a lot of sense to me.
And then you probably rip into the end of the year after that correction.
into the end of the year after that correction. That's just kind of like my base case for the year.
That's just kind of like my base case for the year.
So yeah. Yeah, I didn't think we would see a big correction, but I think it is just prudent to
be aware that this market is very driven by what one man says. And so that can kind of turn
statistics on its, you know, just changes a lot of like the environment
when whatever he says can basically screw you.
And I think that was very apparent last year in February when he started the whole tariff
talks and every trade you would take, there would be a new comment about tariffs and your
new long trade, your options would just get absolutely torched.
So that aspect is still very much well and alive in his presidency.
But, you know, hopefully we get a little bit of quiet time here now.
let me ask you something no no you're good you're good uh i also see we have larry joining us up
here what's up guys how you doing larry it's a very interesting day in the stock market we had
a nice turnaround here i'm curious to hear your take on it. Yeah, I mean, stock's going up to bullish.
So I don't have any, I guess, alpha to add from that perspective.
I think people see that.
I think the piece that I'm kind of focused on as a whole right now is kind of what Logical's
talking about.
So a lot of my work is market regime analysis, asset allocation work. So it's
not just about, I don't do as much stock picking per se. I kind of just try to align with where
the market's leading and then I'll dive in some more top down. But one thing I'm seeing is if you
look at our ratio chart of small caps to large caps, and I'm looking at it on a wider basis. So I'm looking at
IWM versus IWB. It's at its highest overbought reading. So RSI, so momentum reading, right? I
don't have to call it overbought, but it's in the 80s. So RSI is in the 80s on a daily chart.
And so that to me is just interesting from the perspective of how a lot of people are probably typically positioned in assets and just can we continue to see that outperformance or is that outperformance going to take a breather for a little bit?
Because I do like a lot of, I call them bench warmers.
I don't think, I think a lot of these ratio charts are saying the same thing.
It's really saying value to a large degree is doing a
little bit better. And then cap scale is doing a little bit better. So I consider value the
bench warmers. And so things like healthcare to me from a large cap and small cap and even mid cap
perspective just look great. I think biotech looks great as a whole, but you look at a name like
Gilead today, looks amazing. So Gilead Science is G-I-L-D looks great. I think
Johnson & Johnson looks great. I think Lilly looks great. Merck, Sermo Fisher. You see a lot of
reshaping in the healthcare space. And as a whole, I don't mind being positioned there a little bit
just because it does have... I see value as a insulation tool. I don't see it as a timing tool.
So I just feel like I'm a little bit more insulated from some of the MAG-7 names.
So I do like what I'm seeing in healthcare as a whole.
I think that's something that's shaping up.
The other thing I'll note is some of the work I do around people are talking about the VIX, which I think is fine.
And I think it gives great data points.
Another thing you can do is just look at the one-day rate of change of the S&P 500. And so what I do with the work I do is I look at the
one-day rate of change. And then when we have a down day like we did yesterday, what happens the
immediate next day? Because what you hear a lot of is we need follow-through, right? So the down
day typically needs follow through to
the downside. So you'll see clustering of down days. And then same thing with the upside,
you'll see clustering of upside days. So the last time we had a 1% down day that was followed
immediately by a 1% up day was in October, where I think it was October 10th, we had a large down
day and then we trickled back up to all-time
highs over the next week or so. So that's what I want to see. I want to see follow through from
the market because we did have, we're going to close at like a 1% up day today, which doesn't
reclaim everything. But from a market sentiment standpoint, a lot of what we're waiting for from
a follow-through perspective is most likely being set up now,
because you typically don't see a 1% down day, then a 1% up day, and then the market continue lower. So I like that from just a constructive basis for the S&P 500 for people that are curious
about the S&P 500. But I'm really, I'm looking at, like I said, I'm looking at a lot of healthcare
names that I like. I think even
just healthcare as a whole, XLV, the sector looks great. I think there's still, this energy move is
interesting. You're seeing outperformance from energy and I think there's a lot of implications
there, but I think it's just a cool time to where you can generate alpha just by being in stuff that the S&P 500 is under allocated to.
So yeah, you might not get stock talk type returns, which he's a beast, but right, you can get three
to 5% a month while the market chops sideways because you just moved some assets over. I think
industrials are still being slept on, which I know I talk a lot about industrials.
It sounds like a broken record, but you can go through a lot of those names. A lot of it is being led by aerospace and defense, which is a little bit extended. But some of these stocks
are just consolidating sideways. It might be ready for a move higher. Transport's look good.
So the market of stocks looks great. The stock markets, which is't look awesome. So I think you still have to understand
that if you think about that from a market wisdom perspective, if there's a lot more stocks people
are allocating assets to, it's probably not risk off. Yesterday was a little bit annoying, a little
spooky. But I think some of these, I'm going to start looking at something like software, which I've been fortunate enough to come on here and say I didn't like.
I'm going to start looking now like, hey, is this going to bottom soon?
Because I think everyone's now talking about something like software, which is down today.
It looks like shit, but like, okay, it's getting oversold again.
Is this where we start to see the reversion in something like software, in the
mega cap names? So yeah, there's a lot going on, but I think a lot of it is constructive.
So this is where technicals is pretty, because you don't have to marry yourself to something,
because there's a lot of failed breakouts, like something like consumer discretionary.
But now consumer discretionary is reclaiming its breakout
level today around 120. So I think those type of moves you're seeing are just going to be constructive,
continuing to move forward. So those are just some of my thoughts from yesterday and today.
Awesome. Thank you, Larry, for the thoughts there. I don't think we have too many earnings coming up
after the close today so we we don't have too much to look in that department we're about 10
minutes from the market close obviously the the end of the day looks a little bit different than
the start of the day but we'll see what this last 10 minutes or so looks like. The market stopped moving lower there off of the high.
Stock talk.
There was also a flurry of news stories
which came out in the last 20, 30 minutes or so.
A couple around Apple.
Some things around an AI pin that they might be working on.
Also a revamped version of Siri.
There was a story that Jeff Bezos is going to be launching a satellite,
a lower satellite connect, whatever, internet service,
specifically targeting data centers
through Blue Origin,
maybe competing with Amazon. You scared?
No, I'm not scared.
No, I'm not scared.
No, competition is good.
What was the first thing you brought up, sorry?
It slipped my mind.
Apple AI pin.
Yeah, yeah, yeah, the AI pin, yeah.
So I actually gave wearables a lot of thought.
I mean, my synaptics position is kind of a play on wearables
as it is on on-device inference,
but I gave wearables a lot of thought,
and it is either going to be one of those two form factors, right?
Like, it's either going to be a pin or a pair of glasses or both maybe a lens and a pin um but yeah
it'll come rapidly i mean i think the only thing that's stopping it really is the inertia of the
consumer right like people like their phones um people are very attached to their phones frankly
most people can't their phone doesn't leave their hand
for more than a couple of hours a day, if at all.
For me, certainly in stocks, I mean, for most of us,
our phones barely leave our hands.
But a phone is a very capable device.
You know, it has a ton of computing power for its size.
It has a very, very capable screen, you know, great display.
So it's a hard thing to compete with, but it will be outcompeted because it is, it's
too complex for the purposes of an AI enabled device.
And these guys know that Apple knows that meta knows that Microsoft knows that, and
they're pivoting towards that.
Google knows that all these guys are pivoting towards that.
The question is, will the next rendition be better than the Apple Pro?
Because that was just, that Vision Pro was just not it.
You know, it's too heavy, not enough battery life, external battery pack,
not a developed enough app ecosystem,
even though they released it to developers six months prior to release.
You need to push out a developer ecosystem to engineers a year prior to release.
And you need to develop a very very deep app ecosystem and the product needs to be lightweight
and the product needs to be able to be worn in public without looking like an
idiot and it needs to have a very capable battery life and we get to that
point then you can maybe purport to begin replacing the cell phone
incrementally.
And eventually that speeds up, just like it happened with the landline.
Like people remember when the cell phone came out, how hesitant people were to give up their landlines and how much they thought that they would keep them.
Right. Like I bring this story up all the time.
But I remember when cell phones first came out, my mom would always say like, oh, we'll always have a have a landline in the house like I'm not going to not have a landline in the house
within two years there was no landline in the house so there is like this this aspect of consumer
inertia and like the idea that people are used to a product and that's really what's inhibiting
the next generation of compute but yeah it's either going to be a pin or a pair of glasses or
both um working with each other but that seems like the most obvious form factor, in my opinion.
Okay. So there's that one. But I'm also curious on the revamp theory.
Is Apple ready to compete on AI?
I mean, about time.
We'll see how capable it is, but I mean, yeah, about time that they do something with that.
You know, I would have hoped that would have happened last year, but I think they're working.
Who are they working with?
The upgrade are they working with?
Claude?
I didn't see actually in the specific one.
I might have said it, but it was Claude.
Sorry, I think it was Google.
They're working with Gemini?
Oh, okay. I didn't know that. I don't know who they're working with, but it was Claude. Sorry, I think it was Google. They were working with Gemini? Okay, I didn't know that. I don't know who they were working with.
But okay, I think they were initially supposed to
work with
ChachiBT, so I guess
they pivoted on that.
It doesn't say anything in this article,
but there was rumors a couple weeks.
It doesn't say anything in this article.
I know it's not ChachiBT. They pivoted to somebody else.
I think they either pivoted to Claude or Gemini. I don't know.
But they did pivot. They pivoted to Gemini
is what the rumors were recently, but
I don't see it in this.
Yeah, okay.
I saw that article, though. So
whoever they're building with, yeah, it's about time.
Again,
I'm kind of surprised they're not doing it internally, but
whatever. Apple's kind of
brushed off the idea of doing these things internally, but whatever, Apple's kind of brushed off the idea
of doing these things internally.
So, you know, whatever makes them happy, I guess.
But yeah, that's another thing that needed to happen.
I don't think it's a big deal.
Like Siri being upgraded, they're kind of just catching up.
But yeah, it's good to see.
It's good to see Apple not have their feet in the sand
on this issue anymore.
Yeah, that is fair.
I'm curious.
So the conversations we've been having over the last couple of days and weeks
around the market and just all these different things that are going on,
it feels like once you throw one thing at the market,
it can generally take that.
Once you throw two, three uncertainties at it,
and we were kind of getting that with this whole Japan stuff with this
whole Greenland stuff in different areas.
It seems like one of those was solved,
not the Japan one,
maybe the Greenland one in the short term.
Is this a type of market that you think is going back to all time highs?
Is this type of market?
What levels are maybe more levels?
What levels are you watching to inform that type of thing?
I know Mike was saying we kind of bounced off the nine EMA a a little bit on the upside of this rally so maybe maybe that becomes a resistance
curious how much you're watching yeah i mean i like to take i like to see the sp500 trading above
the 9 to 21 emas that's you know when you're in a bull market that's generally where you have it
we got a soft rejection there today i'm not saying you can't get that i mean that could
happen tomorrow and then you're back
above. But I don't think about the indexes in terms of like, when do I expect them to be at
all-time highs or when do I expect them to trend higher? Because I just don't own the indexes. I
own individual stocks. So for me, what matters a lot more is how are the individual stocks acting
and are the indexes holding up well enough to facilitate action in individual stocks. That's what I care about. And as long as the indexes
aren't major indexes by that, I mean, SPY and the Qs is really all I care about. But
if those major indexes are not holding up and they're falling apart and they're breaking through
the 50 day and breaking through the 100 day, it is really hard for individual stocks to get
traction because stocks get swept up in the selling and then you have babies being thrown out with the bathwater.
So when we're in that type of environment, then I don't, you know, I'm not aggressive and I am cautious, but we're not in that type of environment yet.
Unless tomorrow we get rejected and then find ourselves below the 50 day again, then, you know, maybe I'll do some cleanup.
But I haven't done much this year.
Like I haven't clicked many buttons yet. I'm outperforming the S&P 500 by basically 100 times, 96 times. The S&P 500 is
0.48%. I'm up 46.4%. So that's the widest margin I've outperformed the S&P 500 by, I think,
in my career. But we're also only 21 days in. So my individual stocks are doing very well.
Most of my individual stocks are above their 9 and 21 EMAs and are acting like leaders in this market. And so that's what I'm
concerned about. And if the indexes can hold up, the indexes can hold up while that's happening
for my individual names, I have nothing to complain about. But, you know, when that changes,
then my tune will change. I'm very willing to flip my bias. I'm not one of those guys that's like...
...for the last bull market.
So when we're in a bull market, yeah, I do sound like a permable because I'm paying attention to the price action.
But when we're not, I'm not going to sound like a permable.
So for now, things look good and things are working well very
well and when that changes my tune will change but i have nothing to be concerned about here
what's up larry yeah i was just gonna add i mean depends what you look at but
small caps are at all-time highs today looks like rsp equal weight is going to be basically
at all-time highs so So even further for what Stock
Talk's mentioning when he's talking about how the underlying tide of the market is,
the underlying tide of the market is super strong. It just so happens five or six ships
are struggling. So yeah, S&P 500 equal weight is right at all-time highs. Small caps are going to close at all-time highs today.
So if you're a stock picker and you're not making money right now, you might want to think about your process because you might just be, right, I don't know, a market cap weighted, right?
You might have been just feeling the benefits of a
market that was being driven by seven stocks. When now, like if you're not making money now,
it's probably cause you're not, you're not in those names that are doing well. So yeah,
I just echo what you're saying. Cause the market looks really freak. The market of stocks looks
really freaking good. Um, yeah. Larry's very nice. What he's really saying is you may not
have a process is what he's trying to say. Yeah. Cause. Yeah. I'm not nice, so I'll say it. But yeah, I mean, because if yeah, if you're not,
there's so many things right now. And that's and it's easy to say there's so many things that look
good. But literally, like the average stock in the S&P 500 is near is within 1% of all time highs
using RSP. Be looking at stocks that are doing that.
It's really six or seven that are hiding the fact that the market is so strong underneath
the surface.
Look at the industrial chart.
Look at the materials chart.
Look at the fucking energy chart.
Like, a lot of stuff looks great.
And I think it's counterintuitive for a lot of people, but strong stocks tend to get stronger
over time. I think that's where sometimes people miss out is of people, but strong stocks tend to get stronger over time.
I think that's where sometimes people miss out is they think, well, I'm going to, you know, the stock market has been ripping.
Well, I'm going to get this stock that's cheaper because that's a deal.
But often those are the stocks that just keep getting cheaper.
Yeah, we're seeing that right now in software, unfortunately.
But I just posted, look at IBB.
Look at iShares Biotech ETF, right? Traded sideways
over the past two, three months. It's basically a bull flag. And it's looking to peek its head
out here with RSI, that entire sign, staying in that bullish range. So as the index has kind of
come in, this is just chopped sideways. And so if the stock market resolves
higher, don't you think Biotex is going to resolve higher? So yeah, the fictitiousness of
buying low and selling high sometimes can be tough, unless you're digging into the fundamentals
of the company and you know it's a time to bottom pick. But even why the hell would homebuilders be
doing really well right here if the market was about to collapse? Why would
XRT, equal weight retail ETF, XRT? I guess one that I look at just for consumer sentiment. Why
would XRT look how it looks right now, trading near all-time highs? So yeah, I think you just,
you got to do a little bit more work here. I brought up INFL the other day.
I know I said it was a bit extended, but this is what you tend to see.
Something like INFL is now even more extended than it was a week ago.
But stocks that didn't struggle yesterday are now resolving a higher.
So I just think what Stocktalk said is great.
He's not only willing to change his opinion about the broader market, he's probably also willing to change his opinion
about sectors because tech can go out of favor
for a little bit.
And there's a lot of money to be made
buying stuff that is boring,
like materials and financials and energy.
So that's all I had.
I own a lot of boring stuff.
And I owned a lot of boring stuff.
Exactly.
I figured you did right but
it's just like that's the shit that people might not get excited about but the charts telling you
i mean people i remember when i when it was political to like nuclear energy and like i
would bring up nuclear energy to my father-in-law who manages money and he's like larry we can't
talk about that i'm like okay i'm definitely gonna going to buy more. And now it's hip.
So I tell you, financials will become sexy if the trend stays strong long enough.
Gold is sexy now.
Silver is sexy now, right?
So just realize stuff is sexy because of price, not because stuff is actually sexy.
So that's it.
Yep, I agree with that completely.
I mean, even last year, I remember, you know, it's shipbuilding with HII.
That was like one of my bigger positions to start middle of last year,
started last year, and no one was interested in shipbuilding.
You know, it became pretty sexy pretty quick.
I mean, that stock doubled.
HII is in the 400s now.
It's in the 200s beginning of last year when we bought it.
I still own it.
I still think that stock's going higher.
You know, even Great Lakes Dredge & Dock, GLDD, like that's dredging is not sexy, but it will be sexy when, you know, more and more ships are being built.
Ports are being expanded.
The Philly port's being expanded.
Once, like Larry said, when stocks go up and they go up a lot and they keep going up, then they become attractive.
They become sexy to traders and investors alike.
And that's kind of the moment you want to set yourself up for.
When these stocks are consolidating and acting well, acting better than the market's acting,
and then on top of that, you see these thematics developing in the background, you hear news
stories about it, you hear the president commenting on it.
Those are pretty good cues to take a position in these kind of areas. And,
you know, again, a lot of times people will either say, A, it's just not my type of industry,
or it's not my type of sector, and that'll deter them. Or B, they'll say, you know,
it's not sexy enough. It's not attractive enough. It's not going to get enough hype.
Well, I mean, you know, look at it, look at the aerospace and defense stocks from last year that doubled, tripled, quadrupled.
Many of them aren't in your fighter jet or quote-unquote drones or sexy areas.
Many of them are just in your basic infrastructure building areas of aerospace and defense.
And the same thing last year with a lot of regular industrial stocks, power producers um all of these legacy industries that kind of
fell out of favor this whole re-industrialized america movement whether you believe it's possible
or not has brought a lot of money and attention to those areas and you know will make those stocks go
up i mean even thurman group which i've been in for a while which is just a basic heat management
company industrial heat management company i mean not sexy, has performed very well. So you find these names and kind of
stick with them. And as long as you understand the story and understand, you know, the pricing
of the stocks, you can read the charts, you can look at the fundamentals, you can ask yourself,
do you think there's more fundamental and technical upside? Once I can check all those boxes,
those are the trades that become really high conviction for me and that I stick with. And even right now, I'm only running
15 positions. I'm not in an enormous rush to add to that roster right now either, because all the
stocks I do own are doing very well. So yeah, you don't have to just own one area. It is nice to
have exposure to areas you're interested in. I think some of you,
especially newer investors, feel like, oh, I'm only going to invest or trade in areas
that are interesting to me. Well, that's okay. You can have X amount of your portfolio allocated
to that, but it is probably worth your time, especially in a market like this where the
themes can shift so rapidly. It is probably worth your time if you care about opportunity costs.
Some people say they don't.
I think everyone should.
If you care about opportunity costs,
it is worth your time to track these themes.
We're in a bull market that's very thematically driven.
You know, if you look at the last two or three years,
you look at quantum stocks, nuclear stocks,
aerospace and defense stocks, drone stocks,
space and satellite stocks,
there have been this life- changing money to make on these.
Many of those names are up a thousand plus percent in a year or two years time.
And I'm not even talking about the small caps.
Many of the mid caps are up multiples on where they were just a year or a year and a half
ago.
So there's life changing money to be made in thematic trades.
That's why I kind of focus on themes.
And I think even focusing on themes from an investment standpoint is a smart thing to do.
You can hold many of these names for months.
You can hold many of them for a year plus.
I mean, Huntington, you could have held for over a year,
taken long-term cap gains on it.
That stock more than doubled, right?
And it's not a sexy name or a tech name or a traditional retail name,
but it's done very well. So
find your spots, know what you know, and if you don't know stuff, don't be afraid to learn it.
You know, bull markets reward incremental knowledge, at least in my opinion. They reward
this idea of like you being curious. And if you see something pop up or the president's talking
about shipbuilding all the time, maybe you should learn a little bit about the ship industry in america and who are the enablers of the shipbuilding industry who
are the major prime subcontractors who you know how does the industry work how does incremental
volume come into the industry how long does it take to build these ships that sounds like a lot
of information it's really not you can learn all that in a couple of days and when you expand that
to other industries and you say okay i know a little bit about shipbuilding i know a little bit about nuclear, I know a little bit about shipbuilding. I know a little bit about nuclear enrichment.
I know a little bit about the battery industry in the United States.
I know a little bit about X, Y and Z in the tech industry.
When you pick up that knowledge, you become a much better stock picker, in my opinion.
And if on top of that, you know how to recharge, which I think everyone should know how to do, at least in the basic sense, you should know charting 101.
You combine that with charting 101, you'll find great spots.
You'll find great entries on great stocks that do very, very well for the duration of the bull market.
And that's really what this game is about if you're an individual stock picker.
And I think you have to be cognizant when we're in a everyone wins bull market versus when you're in a bull market where there's hyper outperformance in a handful of themes.
And I think we're in the latter right now where thematic focus gets rewarded constantly.
And I think if you have a portfolio that's sort of unfocused, where you just own a bunch of random things
and you don't really understand where either of them fit or where any of them fit into the puzzle,
this market I think is really dangerous for traders and investors like that
because any moment of volatility is going to shake you out of a number of positions.
And then the positioning and the early cost basis and all that
tends to matter a lot less if you're going to get shaken out of the first signs of volatility.
I mean, I saw a lot of people yesterday, names that they love,
just get shaken out because of how broad the selling was.
That spooks people, especially when you're giving up a 50-day simultaneously on
the S&P 500. So if you're going to get spooked out by moments like that, to me, it's often a
product of not knowing what you own. And that's a product of not knowing the themes in the market
well enough. And that's a product of just not having studied in the first place.
How many positions for your style do you think is too much uh when i get over 20 i start
getting scramble headed uh it just becomes too much to manage i mean i usually because i usually
have equity plus option strategies on most of my positions not all of them but most of them i have
you know equity plus options so
once i get over 20 positions i just get like you know bird brained like it's just too much to monitor and then like i every week i do like a daily weekly monthly well i don't look at the
monthly every week but um i'll look at the daily and weekly charts every week on all my positions
and just go through and be like hey is, is the technical structure still intact? I'm not a setup guy. I'm more of a structure guy where I'm like, hey, is
the technical structure still conducive for positive price action? Or did the stock find
itself tucked below the 21 EMA and is now downtrending below it, constant rejections or
whatever it is. If there's a sign to me that
there's a break in technical structure, then that makes me more willing to either take profits,
cut the position, reduce the position, whatever. But I do that every week. And when I have over
20 positions, it just becomes overwhelming to differentiate stocks. So I'd prefer not to get
over 20, but I mean, there's probably a good chance that by mid-February I will.
But then by March or April, you know, once some of those earnings reports are out of the way, earnings reports are a big time for me where I can differentiate stocks, right?
And say like, oh, you did well.
You executed where I wanted you to execute, you know, and then another company may not.
Or there may be part of my thesis where I'm expecting momentum in some one of their programs or their products and I don't see it.
I might cut those stocks during earnings season.
So I do tend to ramp up positioning in Q1.
And then I tend to ramp down positioning in like Q3, Q4.
So, you know, we'll see how this year pans out and what gets accepted or not.
But I let the winners speak for themselves through price action.
This is why when a lot of people at the start of the year are like,
hey, what are your top picks for 2026?
I never do that because that's not how I operate as a stock picker.
There's stocks I like here a lot.
I mean, I bought two of them at the beginning of the year with Synaptics and GLDD.
I like both of those stocks a lot I mean I bought two of them beginning of the year with synaptics and GLDD I like both of those stocks lost but there may come a point in the year
where one of them does something or there's a you know shift in theme or
whatever and that chart breaks down and I mean no longer be interested in them
and then on the contrary there's other stocks that I do like here that I don't
own but based on where the thematic narratives go
into the middle of the year and based on where the geopolitical narratives go in the middle of the
year, maybe those stocks will become less interesting to me. So I don't like to do what
a lot of people do, which is like, here's my top picks for 2026. And then they go and quote tweet
them and brag about it at the end of the year. That's not really what I do. I drop picks along
the way that I think makes sense at the time. then conditionally I may or may not hold those stocks depending on a variety of
factors technical fundamental thematic really all you know all three of those
are the main categories I look at so if there's violations or breakdowns or
surprises in any of those categories then I I exit stocks. So I'm very comfortable where I am right now.
And there are four or five other names that I want to buy
that I'm just buying like a hawk for the right entry.
I don't buy extended stocks.
I don't buy gapped up stocks.
I don't chase gap ups.
I don't do any of that stuff.
So if there's a stock that I like that's up a lot this year,
I'm not buying it because I'm waiting for it to reset itself at an
entry point that I think is favorable you know either a retest of the breakout
or whatever it may be so yeah there's a lot of stocks I want to own that just
aren't at the right spot technically so I will wait and in the meantime I have
stocks that are performing very well it's not like I need to grab exposure
you know I'm levered long at this point I'm thinking of a three percent of margin right now so I'm not
incredibly overtly long when I'm 104 ish percent long so yeah I'm comfortable with where I'm at I
have the ability to torque the margin if I need to I mean there were points of last year where I was
you know buck 20 buck 30 percent long so if I need need to get mean, there were points of last year where I was, you know, buck 20, buck 30% long. So if I need to get more aggressive, I will. But for now, things are working very,
very well. So I don't feel the need to, you know, chase anything.
Yeah, that is fair. I'm sure it also helps with the sector concentration of picking one or two
areas and you can maybe pick, extend out a little bit more of those names.
I imagine it would be difficult to kind of watch a bunch of sectors at the same time.
I would imagine this Bezos news, though, him saying he's planning to launch 5,100 more satellites,
maybe got the space stocks moving in the last part of the day.
I wouldn't have been surprised. Not really,
actually.
The space stocks had a nice
underperformance day today.
I don't really
have exposure to any of them.
So, yeah, it's not an
issue for me. But yeah, they did have a nice underperformance
day. Seems like a sector that you might be
getting at some point this year. Is it radar yeah i want to my issue with most of
these stocks is like um they have nice charts a lot of them have really nice charts they're
probably going higher but i i can't buy like i can't bring myself to buy and hold stocks that
are trading at like you know 100 times sales or 200 times sales, or in many cases, zero revenue and multi-billion dollar valuations. I just can't buy those. I mean,
I can buy them, but it's going to be a very fleeting trade for me. I'm not going to hold
those for months because those are the types of stocks where, you know, people who remember
November, December of last year, where there were 40, 50, 60, 70% drawdowns in two weeks and names,
those are the types of stocks where that happens.
And so I just don't like to put myself in the position
to open myself up for downside like that.
And so instead, where I'm most interested in the space and satellite theme
is the other LEO stocks that aren't SpaceX and ASTS
because those ones to me are very cheaply valued because
of competition, right? They're trading at suppressed multiples because of their competition
with SpaceX and ASTS. And so as a consequence of that, I think they're attractive for
potential buyouts. And so, you know, I've talked about IRDM in the past. I owned it in the past.
That's one that I may pick up again. I actually like how that chart's shaping up um i think that stock's very very cheap um gilt satellite i've
talked about them that's another one i think is very cheap um there are quite a few of these
satellite stocks that i think are relatively cheap now does that mean that they're good
buys not necessarily but i do think there's a high likelihood that they get bought out in an environment like this.
So, yeah, those, I may end up adding those at some point, those types of names.
Not both of them, but those types of names I may end up adding.
I do want exposure to that theme going into the SpaceX IPO,
but I'm going to try to time it correctly to where it has an impact on the portfolio.
But, yeah, I like the Space Satellite theme.
I even still like the Critical Minerals theme, which is one that I exited last year and haven't got back in.
But I still like that theme as well.
I was actually looking at Ramaco a couple days ago, Met C, but I couldn't get my entry. And then, you know,
last couple of days it made a five or 6% move off the low. So, um, I don't know if I'll jump
into that one, but if it comes back down, maybe. Um, so yeah, I like that theme as well. I mean,
it's, it's tough when you've already made a ton of money on a theme, especially like last year
to want to get right back into it. But, um But there are stocks that have exited that I haven't,
you know,
an urge to reenter.
So I'll just need to wait for the right moments.
Because again,
I don't,
I don't chase ever.
That's like a hard rule of mine.
I don't chase big moves to the upside.
So we'll see if those stocks can reset themselves. For now, I'm very, very comfortable
and happy with my portfolio, though. I actually thought about adding more synaptics today when
it came down and kissed the nine, but I didn't. But that one I have my eye on to potentially
upsize as well. I really like that name. I might wait till after the earnings in early Feb,
because those are coming up first week of Feb on that name. And if I like them, then I may use that moment to upsize.
But there's a variety of names that have exited late last year that,
that I'd, you know, in an ideal scenario, I'd like to get back into.
There you go.
Smart people can, can have been listening to the spaces.
have been listening to the spaces, we'll know
We'll know what to, what to be looking at there.
what to be looking
at there.
I am curious of
where we are in this
Greenland situation.
Stock talk. I mean, do you think this is something
I don't know what the next little bit.
We didn't hear what happened today is what I expected.
What happened today is what I expected.
We still don't have any answers, and it sounds like he doesn't either.
Yeah, I mean, look, I think what he wants
is he just wants them to come to the table.
That's what I think he wants.
And based on today's comments, they're coming to the table.
One thing to keep in mind is, again,
Mark Root, the NATO Secretary General,
he likes Trump.
Or he says he likes Trump,
which I guess is the same thing, you know? Um,
but he is very, he treats what Trump says very differently than Macron or, uh, the German
government as a whole, or, you know, even Keir Stahmer. And again, that's surprising to me
because these guys have known Trump for quite some time. They understand his bombastic nature. They understand the way that he speaks is not necessarily prototypical of a leader.
operating with that assumption. And it's odd to me that every time Trump threatens something like
this or pushes something like this, they all just act like they're about to go to war with the
United States. Like, come on. Like the more they act like that, the more animosity and hostility
they're going to get from Rubio and Trump and Bessent. And the more they act like Mark Root,
the more that they're going to get the response that Mark Root got today, which was, hey, no more tariffs.
Let's sit down and talk.
to be brash and is going to say things that he doesn't necessarily mean and is going to put
things on the table as threats or as incentives to action that he won't necessarily follow through
on. And if you learn anything from the tariffs last year, you should have learned that. And the
European leaders should have learned that. And so it's odd to me that there's this
propensity to butt heads. When Trump doesn't want to butt heads, he just wants his way.
And when you acknowledge that,
like Mark Rood did today, I think you get positive results and you get positive results
for the market and for the geopolitical scenario. And so I think today was a positive result. Now,
where does the Greenland situation end? I don't know. I don't know what the deal that he's
referring to today. He was very, very broad about the deal. He said there's a Greenland
framework in place. I don't know what
that means. I imagine over the next few days, we will find out what the Greenland framework is,
what exactly it means, who exactly will be involved, what the United States level of
involvement will be. We'll find that out. But for now, the markets like the idea of there not being
a trade war between the United States and Europe to add a wrench into the mix.
And it looks like we're not going to get one because the February 1st tariffs have been suspended for now.
There was just an update on that.
It said the Greenland deal said to involve small pockets of land.
I don't know.
Small pockets of land?
Small pockets of land?
Yeah, from New York.
It looks to me like Trump's big focus there is more so on the critical and strategic minerals and such.
So it sounds like a deal might be based around some pieces of land potentially. premise has been kind of security in the region, which I don't think anything really stops them
from maybe coming to agreements or setting up additional bases or military in the area if they
wanted to. Just kind of my thesis based on what I'm reading, I have no kind of intellectual
knowledge of the situation outside of just the articles and some of the stuff I'm reading. But
it sounds like a lot of the focus is around the minerals in the
area and some land so it sounds like he was alluding to that a little bit today in my opinion but
not sure
i am seeing the headline the u.s president trump uh new york times reports us president trump's
greenland framework would involve the u.S. getting small pockets of land.
Is that headline there?
So, I don't know.
Yeah, that and then he keeps talking about the, what is it, the Golden Dome that he wants to do?
Or is that with Canada?
I forget.
I forget.
That's with Canada, but it's going to involve Greenland, I bet.
That's with Canada, but it's going to involve Greenland, I bet.
Yeah.
Yeah, it sounds like to me, just based on what I'm reading,
like the premise a lot is about, you know, security in the region.
But it seems like there's still this big push to secure land
to secure land for these strategic minerals and such,
for these strategic minerals and such,
given that China's got a massive, massive dominance over them right now.
So just an interesting narrative I've been kind of reading and following up on.
Yeah, this, I imagine this is something that will heat up again
at some point in the not-too-distant future,
randomly at some point,
and we'll have tariffs slapped back on it.
But this is just another artificial thing
that I think the market's going to keep moving on from.
Now, the Japan thing, I don't know too much about,
and I'd have to lean on others to hear the knowledge of it.
But that seems like one more that's maybe a little bit more systemic, but I don't know how much it impacts us.
Is that the sharing of chip data?
No, around their bond yields and the way that they've been moving over the last couple of days.
I know that that was concerning for people.
Oh, well. been moving over the last couple days i know that uh that was concerning for people oh well
looking back to a couple things there we still do have davos going on so there's a lot of speeches there obviously trump was one person who spoke there this uh this morning but also so did jensen wong and jamie diamond and a couple others so there was a lot of stocks moving from that
but i don't think it was any of the names that you are too too focused on was there anything at davos
that was interesting for you today stock talk no not really i don't pay much attention to davos it's
more of a political dance than it is a source of signal, in my opinion.
It has been for quite some time.
World Economic Forum is just a bunch of rich people talking about what they might be worried about.
It's not really that important.
I think CES gives you a lot more signal than Davos ever will.
But no, I don't pay much attention to the World Economic Forum.
It's just a bunch of people pumping their egos.
Yeah, that's fair.
That's fair.
Some decent interviews.
The sunglasses from Macron gave it away yesterday.
I love how Trump referenced that today, too.
Yeah.
Bro loves to talk, that's for sure. So sure stock talk let me ask you one that normally doesn't get a good
response but we'll ask it every once in a while crypto has been struggling a little over the last
couple couple days weeks months whatever it is obviously markets near all-time highs bitcoin
still off a little bit is this the time Bitcoin can make the move?
Back up?
Bitcoin's looking a little bit better technically
than it was end of last year.
Let me pull it up.
On the daily, it still looks meh, but it actually looks ugly on the daily it still looks meh, but
it actually looks ugly on the daily, but weekly looks good.
I think, you know, weekly shown what, what is this?
One, two, three, four, five, six, seven, eight, nine,
10 days of consolidation along the hundred week moving average.
We're just sitting down at 87.
You're about to collide with the 20-week overhead at 101 if you get a push.
So for now, I think the weekly chart is probably the cleanest look for Bitcoin.
And if you get a little bit of momentum, it can end up looking really good on all time frames.
a little bit of momentum, it can end up looking really good on all time frames.
You'd need a push above a buck three, buck four.
And then I think it would look great on all time frames.
But that's a $14,000 move.
So I don't want to pretend that that's nothing.
But yeah, I don't think it looks as bad as it did late last year.
The daily still looks ugly so you need
some candles to hold here before you can start getting incrementally positive on it but i don't
have any short medium term exposure right now to it i mean i own a couple of bitcoins in a separate
account but that's about all the exposure i have uh it's a very very small percentage of my um
net worth so it's not like a major position or anything but
i do think it's starting to look better starting to shape up on the weekly but you're gonna need
these daily pumps to hold you can't keep getting these rips to 93 94 that get faded because
that's going to prevent it from building structure but the weekly is sort of where i'd hang my hat
if i was a bitcoin bull
here i'd be looking at the weekly chart and just hoping that that structure holds
it's kind of surfing along the 100 week moving average and you want to see that continue
um you know weekly close below that spot would mean that it would look bearish on all time frames
you don't want that so um if you're a bitcoin bull here you have short-term exposures
to crypto i think you want to see it hold the 100 week moving average and the rest i think is noise
until you get your next pump um and if the next push holds above uh bucko three bucko four then
i think you're you're looking fine on that so yeah long answer, I think it looks a little better than it did
late last year, but the Daily still needs work.
Nice.
This could be the time.
Theranos founder Elizabeth Holmes
asks President Trump for a pardon.
I don't know.
What are the calciots? I think she might get it.
NVIDIA Jensen Huang plans to visit China
as he works to reopen the market.
I think that story came out yesterday or something.
He should be going in a little bit.
Okay.
Crypto is a very interesting one um do you have any thoughts uh do you ever look at anything stock talk that's like a not bitcoin ethereum i'm not saying i'm not suggesting you're getting
to the trenches but some people might swear by like i don't look at no no i don't look at any
other cryptos i just look at bitcoin and ethereum um and i don't even really look at ethereum to be honest i i look at bitcoin as a
as a risk barometer more than anything risk on risk off barometer um when bitcoin's performing
well i think it's good for risk assets broadly and when bitcoin's underperforming i think
it's sometimes a caution signal to risk assets but what i will say is that thematic equities have been the place to
be thematic equities have performed very well with or without crypto very often with or without the
indexes major indexes um you know i think them mid-caps for the better part of the last
three years have been the place to be. And I think they're still the place to be.
Thematic stocks with market caps under $15 billion, that's the place to be.
If it was different this year, if I felt it was different coming
into the year and these first 21 days of the year, if my portfolio was underperforming,
I would pivot, but it's not underperforming.
I mean, again, we're outperforming the SB500 by like a hundred X in the first 21 days of
the year.
So that tells you enough as to where you should be in my opinion.
Um, so I'm going gonna stick to where i am
and keep operating in that environment but no i don't look at any other cryptos crypto to me is
just like i look at it as the most speculative part of the market and i i take cues from its
performance based on that you know if it's performing very well that to me that says to me
speculators are doing well
and they're going to be willing to speculate even more.
But I would tie the relationship between crypto
to the markets as probably less relevant
than it has been in the last four years.
And that could mean that's a bullish signal,
like, hey, sentiment is low and this is the time to get in.
But it could also mean that the relationship between crypto and the markets is shifting slightly
and that the institutionalization of crypto has made it more of a standardized asset
you know i think a lot of people in the bitcoin community wanted to see institutional adoption
in crypto because they were like oh that'll send it to the moon. It'll be 400K before you know it. But instead, you got more
chop and more frequent chop and much more correlation to risk assets in the equity markets.
And that's a consequence of institutional ownership institutional ownership can be a good thing but it can also be a thing that slows down the train if
you will and i think for crypto that's how it's functioned in the last few months i also think
the hype around quantum quantum has played a factor i know that there's i'm not sitting here
saying quantum is going to break crypto but you know there's going to be some bitcoin maxi out there that has my head for saying that that's not what i'm saying but
um clearly the market perceives an element of threat there because every day that you see the
quantum stocks rallying you tend to see a suppression in crypto and that's the market
speaking to you right like you can't ignore those correlations it's part of the reason why on on
both red days and green days, one thing I advocate in our
community very frequently is that you should observe the price action and not just the
price action and the names you own, but you should observe the price action broadly.
Like if I had to credit anything for my ability to navigate markets, and I think I've done
a hell of a job navigating markets for the last seven or eight years.
But if I credit anything to my ability to do that, it's observing price action, even in the stocks I don't own. And observing this
idea of thematic rotation, thematic correlation, narrative rotation, narrative correlation.
These are very, very important things because it tells you where the money is going and why
the money is going there. You can look at an RRG graph.
For people that don't know what that is, it's a relative rotation graph.
You can look at that and you could find out where the money is going.
But you're not going to know why.
And not knowing why makes it difficult to bet on the sustainability of a rotation.
Right?
Like early last year when you saw money going
into military infrastructure stocks in February and March of last year, right? Stocks like
Huntington Ingalls, right? When you saw that, you didn't know if it was fleeting or not,
if you didn't understand why. If you didn't have a grasp around the policy initiatives and ship
building and the sustainability of those policy initiatives, and the fact that there's a first
major push towards shipbuilding that we've seen in a decade plus, if you don't understand the context behind
it, you probably would have bought Huntington at $2.10, sold it at $2.30, rather than buying it
at $2.10 and still holding it like I am, because I think that stock is still going higher.
So that's the difference. Money is made in markets from conviction and time horizon.
That's how you make money in markets, not from scalping everything constantly, which is what seems to be the MO for most people on Twitter, because, you know, most of the groups out there, most of we got them. We sniped them. Take these calls for next week on this stock. Or take these zero DT calls on this name because it had a nice catalyst this morning.
Or, you know, get into this stock because this theme is hot.
Oh, it's up 20%. Sell it.
Like, that's how people think you make money in markets.
That's not how you make money in markets.
Not real money, at least.
You know, you make real money in markets by positioning yourselves in themes and high
conviction names with size, with leverage and holding them. That's how you make like life
changing money. Not from, you know, what's the next opportunity? What's the next opportunity?
What's the next stock? What's the next stock? Oh, I sold that because it had one gap up. Like
that's, I mean, that's a, to me, a fool's way of approaching the market.
And you're going to constantly be doing more work than you have to do.
Like, I mean, I don't know.
There's probably people out there that are outperforming me this year.
But, I mean, I'm performing very, very well so far this year.
And I've clicked about four or five buttons the entire year.
First 21 days of the year, I've clicked maybe four, maybe five buttons.
You know, I've entered two positions. I haven't really trimmed anything. I think I sold AVAV calls. That was another
button I clicked. I sold D-Pro. That was another button I clicked. That's four buttons to be
up 46%, right? So I don't know. I mean, I constantly rail against this idea that active trading, highly active trading is the way to do it.
Even if you're not, even if you're busy, like some people think, oh, I'm busy.
So I can't like, no, I think even whether you're busy or not busy, that I disagree that that is the way to do it. I think the way to make money is medium-term swings,
medium and long-term swings of high conviction positions with leverage.
And I would ignore the leverage part of that until you're experienced.
If you're new, I don't think you need to be using naked directional options.
I don't think you need to be using margin.
But if you've consistently outperformed the markets for years,
But if you've consistently outperformed the markets for years, then, yeah, you can start integrating that.
then, yeah, you can start integrating that.
And, you know, obviously, it's going to add to the volatility of your portfolio.
But, I mean, that's I don't know any great investing margins or records or performances in history.
I'm not talking about just on the retail side, on the institutional side as well that have ever been accomplished without leverage.
Nothing. There's no great track record or performance record or feet or, you know,
three or four or 500% a year done by anyone ever that has been done without leverage.
So leverage and conviction matter. But again, the leverage component is only until you know what you're doing and you've proven to yourself that you know what you're doing.
And I've said this before and I'll say it again.
The proof is in the pudding, not in your opinion of yourself.
You know, which again is something that new traders seem to not understand.
They tell themselves, I'm good.
I know I'm good.
That's not how it works. the market tells you if you're good
the market is the one that indicates that to you not you so if the market's telling you you're good
for the last five years and you're just by leaps and bounds outperforming the market then yeah you
can use some leverage um and every time this conversation comes up about margin or leverage, there's this cohort of people that are like, no, never use leverage, never use margin.
That's equally as stupid as saying to use it because it's obviously conditional.
It depends on your experience level.
It depends on how good you actually are before you can start integrating those things.
It's not a function of principle in a vacuum. It's not like margin is always bad.
Options are always bad. Most people that I see trading options have no idea what the fuck they're
doing. They're buying weekly options, zero DT options, and then they're like, oh, 99% of options
traders lose. Well, yeah, if you approach it like that, yes. On the contrary, if you buy close to the money or in the money options,
three to six to nine to a year plus out on high conviction names that you've studied deeply,
the record's not going to look like that on those types of stocks.
You know, you're not going to lose 90% of the time on those types of stocks if you've actually done the work.
So, yeah, I don't know. I, I, a lot of the stuff that's on Twitter to me
that gets spread, these like common beliefs and common myths to me is like really, really just
hot garbage and is misleading a lot of people. Um, you know, short, the idea of short-term
trading constantly scalping, constantly being at your screen all day and clicking 500 buttons a day all of
that is just garbage nonsense in my opinion it's not sustainable and you
don't want to be you don't want to be 50 years old managing a portfolio and
having to sit in front of the screen all day and click 100 buttons like you
don't want that trust me you know and sometimes people will be like oh stock
talk like you're doing anything today you're doing anything today you're
doing anything today I'm like no no. Just waiting for my spots, waiting for my
opportunities, and then I'll click the button when I need to click it. But I wouldn't be surprised
by if the end of Q1, I've clicked 20 buttons. By the end of the
whole quarter. Maybe 25.
And I bet my bottom dollar that I'll be outperforming the S&P 500
with just those buttons clicked.
So we'll see.
But yeah, you have to treat the markets like a vehicle for conviction, in my opinion.
That's how the real money is made.
And the conviction part is the hard part because that's up to you to develop.
That's up to the work that you do, the thematic observation you do.
That's how you develop it.
And once you're there, once you're at that point, then you can start operating from a position of strategy and start asking yourself, where should I be positioned?
How long?
How far should my calls be?
What strike am I getting?
Then all those questions pop up.
But that's well after the research has been done.
That's well after the conviction has been developed.
That's the first step.
And many people skip that step in favor of just chasing fleeting opportunities.
And I just don't think you're going to be a consistent winner that way, you know?
So, yeah.
It's kind of my rant on that topic i don't know how i got
into that but yeah okay hey listen i we what would stocks on spaces be without a good stock talk rant
i think that conviction is is kind of the thing
underlying a lot of this stuff and not being shaken
out, kind of being able to make these plays
your own.
I think, yeah.
I think it is stupid to never
use margin or leverage.
Without conviction, you're just
beholden to the whims of the market.
At that point, you should just be in the market.
That's where, honestly, listen,
I feel like people who kind of talk it either way or the other,
like for certain people,
you should be kind of taking those margin risks
and should be doing extra stuff.
For a lot of people,
you should just be looking for broad-based market ETFs,
enjoy your life, go do a business.
Are you going to respect the market
or are you going gonna put enough time
yeah i tell that to people all the time i mean my my advice that i give is for people who want
to be active right like people who want to pick stocks and individual stocks at that and hold
them for extended periods that's when i'm talking about my strategy and the things you should or shouldn't do i'm talking to those people now there's another cohort of people who have full-time
jobs who don't have the time to pick stocks individually who don't have the time to do
deep research if you're in that cohort of people i say you do exactly what evan just said which is
buy voo and go to work. Like that sounds shitty.
It sounds boring.
It's not.
You'll make plenty of money investing in the S&P 500.
It's the best index ever conceived.
So you shouldn't be shy or afraid to do that.
But it's important to acknowledge that when I'm speaking about strategy,
I'm speaking to the people who operate how I operate in the markets,
which is individual stock picking. But again, to Evan's point,
there's a large portion of the market, there's many of you probably in the audience who don't
have the time to do that. Who don't have the time to do deep research on industries. And if you don't,
then you shouldn't be picking stocks at all. You should just be letting the S&P 500 pick them for
you and go enjoy your life. So, yes, I agree.
There are two big cohorts in the market, the people who want to be active stock pickers, who want to dramatically outperform, and the people who just want to get a nice, solid return.
And for the latter, just buy the S&P.
Sorry, I was having trouble getting back.
Do you actively try and convince people into
into more active stuff in the stock market if you can i mean anyone who's in my community
obviously yeah they're i'm not i don't say i don't want to say we're convincing them to do it but
yeah if you're in my community we are stock picking community so yeah i mean we don't talk
about buying the indexes in StockDoc Insiders.
We're just talking about individual stock alpha.
So am I trying to convince them to do it?
No, that's fair.
Do you ever consider having more of like a long-term account?
It's difficult, I know, to say it.
I mean, it is a long-term account and a short-term account.
I don't split them up between long-term.
I just have one actively managed portfolio taxable account.
I have an IRA, but it's a very, I mean, you know, I've been self-employed for a long time. So it's
a very, very small portion of my wealth compared to my actively managed account. Very small. It's
like negligible compared to my main taxable account. So yeah, I mean, it's, I have positions
that are long-term. I mean, if you, for those that are in my community, when you look at my portfolio updates, you'll see the bottom section, which is labeled legacy
positions. And in it are positions like Tesla and Amazon and Robinhood. I haven't bought those
stocks in a long time. I haven't bought any added any shares to them, but I still hold them.
They're legacy positions, right? So those are long-term
positions, but you could be long-term and still be a stock picker. It doesn't inhibit you from
being long-term because you're picking stocks, but it makes it harder because owning an individual
stock for 10 years is very different from owning the S&P 500 for 10 years, because the S&P 500 will fix itself.
If there are underperformers, they will be kicked out.
Right. If there are stocks that outperform, they will increase in waiting for the index and you will benefit from that.
But with individual stocks, there's a story that you have to follow. There's a valuation
that you have to follow, valuation framework. There is individual developments and the management
team and the catalysts and the backlog and et cetera, et cetera, that you have to monitor if
you're going to own an individual stock, because those things changing can mean the story changing, can mean the price action changing, you know, the stock itself
completely reversing. Like, so owning an individual stock for 10 years requires work, observation,
reading the earnings reports, paying attention to the catalyst. Owning the S&P 500 for 10 years
requires you to do nothing. So you have to decide who you want
to be do you want to put in the extra work and the extra research to get the extra performance
or do you want to i don't say settle because the sb500 is a great vehicle returning seven percent
annually is no um small feat but you you decide what you want to do.
You either want to invest passively,
or you can do both.
I mean, you can do both.
You can have a portion of your portfolio
in the S&P 500 and a portion of individual stocks
and just understand the difference between the risks
and the difference between the amount of time
required to manage those positions.
And for me, I mean, I'm young.
The S&P 500's return is just not enough for what I want.
And so, you know, I don't want 500% every year either.
I don't think I'm going to replicate what I did last year every year.
But I do want to outperform the S&P 500 by multiples.
That is my goal.
And with the amount of time I put in if i'm not doing that
i'm wasting my time right like some people say oh i want to outperform the sb500 so
they'll go and pick stocks and then they'll do nine percent on the year
that's not worth your time it's not like if you're outperforming the S&P 500 by one or 2%, like from an institutional
standpoint, like your hedge fund.
Okay, that's a different story.
But for if you're a retail trader managing your own portfolio, that is not enough outperformance
to justify the time you're spending.
So these are things that you have to like, think about.
I mean, they're sometimes hard realities to grapple with
because a lot of people think they're good
and they're not good.
That's a tough thing to admit, you know,
in any field of work, not just in trading.
But that is something you have to contend with.
You have to ask yourself, like,
am I outperforming by enough, you know,
after taxes, by the way, after taxes,
that's another important element.
Am I performing by enough to make my time investment worth it?
For me, I am.
Like I did 505% last year.
That is worth it.
You know, for the time I put in, I was paid for the time I put in, you know.
But if you're not, and I'm not saying you have to do 500%, but if you're not dramatically outperforming the indexes, you are not good enough.
It sucks to hear.
That's like a tough pill to swallow.
But it's the truth.
And, you know, that's not to say if it's your first year trading and you're not outperforming that that's it.
you give up. But if you've been doing this for years and years and years, and you just can't
You give up.
get up from under the mat, and you can't post a year
where you are significantly outperforming the indexes, then you should just buy
the indexes. And again,
it's a tough pill to swallow, but it's a pill that many people have to swallow, and some people swallow that pill
far too late in their trading and investing careers. They spend 10 years
making no progress,
trying to actively trade, operating like a chicken with their head cut off. And then
when the time comes to make that concession, they've given up 10 years of compounded returns
in exchange for their ego. And that's not a good trade to make.
Not a good trade to make.
So, yeah.
Be smart.
Be self-reflective.
And more than anything, do not fall for your propensity as a human being to say, I'm good.
Like, don't fall for that.
Let the market dictate whether you're good or not.
Yes. Let the numbers honestly in life you don't have to go with the numbers every single time but at least having them in front of you men lie women lie numbers don't yeah you can you
can choose not to listen to them statistics can play for both teams you can you can make numbers
work whatever direction you want to. you
you cut out
i thought that was me, honestly.
Evan, did you just die?
Paging Evan.
We'll see what's going on here.
Boy, what a day, Stock Talk.
I don't know what was talked about.
There he is.
Everyone, but you guys can hear me, right?
Yeah, we got you.
I think so.
I can hear you.
Okay.
How are we doing?
How are we doing?
I apologize for that.
I guess I just went into some other area.
I did want to talk about data centers.
I did see we had Adam Patty joining us up here.
We do have you, right, Adam?
I'm here, guys.
Thanks a lot.
How are you doing?
I am doing well.
I'm doing well.
I hope you've been doing good yourself.
I feel like it's been a while since we've had you on.
Yeah. I mean, the holidays just never ended. And so I'm doing well. I hope you've been doing good yourself. I feel like it's been a while since we've had you on. Yeah, I mean, the holidays just never ended.
And so I'm back.
I'm thrilled to be here.
And I love the topic.
Data centers is a great topic for sure.
It's been a crazy start to the year.
I feel like we didn't talk about memory too much in our conversations.
We definitely did towards the end.
But that has become such a hot topic. And I'm excited to talk through cooling and a couple other stuff in our conversations. We definitely did towards the end, but that has become such a hot
topic. And I'm excited to talk through cooling and a couple other stuff in this area. But I'm
excited to dig in deeper on this space, the grid, maybe some others in there. I'm excited to be
joined by Adam Patty up here. He's a regular. We appreciate him for joining in. We are going to
talk about some of the tickers, the ETFs that he has. I do want to
read out a couple of disclosures. Obviously, we are working with Adam and the VistaShares team.
Our goal is never for you guys to just go in and buy stuff. It's just to put interesting stuff on
your radar, bring on people who are doing very legit things in the space and allow them to share
the thoughts, share the vehicles that we created. It even goes in on the last conversation that
these are a little bit more sector specific. There's also a couple other interesting ideas, but an investor should carefully consider a fund's
investment objectives, risk, charges, and expenses before investing. Funds prospectus and summary
prospectus contain this information and more. And you guys should go and find that on the Vista
Shares website. To obtain a fund's prospectus and key information document, visit the VistaShares.com website.
Funds prospectus and key information
should be read carefully.
We're excited to be working with the VistaShares team.
Mr. Adam Patti, data centers,
I did pin up in the nest above a couple posts up there,
but the one that I think is very interesting
is around the bill of materials, the whole process
that you guys have gone in there. And we've talked a lot about data centers, and we were kind of just
talking about numbers there. And I enjoy... Everyone should go check the tweet pinned up in the nest
above. It kind of goes a breakdown of when people spend money on data centers, what are they actually
spending money on? And I would love for you to take us through this a little bit. I don't know
if anyone would expect, I feel like a lot of people might think that the servers and the NVIDIA chips
are the number one expense in here, but the power systems, the cooling systems, that is where the
biggest spend is if you're looking up in the nest above. And I'd love to hear a little bit more
around this bill of materials and kind of how it kind of guides some of the stuff. Obviously,
I haven't named the ETF yet. AIS is the one where this is
kind of the process for. So people should go in and check that out. We'll talk more about that in
a second, but I'd love to talk through this bill of materials first. Great. Yeah. So I mean, look,
you mentioned AIS. AIS is our AI infrastructure ETF. Then we have POW, P-O-W, which is our
power infrastructure ETF, which is kind of a bookend. So people talk about the AI build out,
you know, data centers and semiconductors. Then on the other side is the gating issue of energy,
right? How do we get the energy to these data centers? So, and look, I wish I could take full
credit for this build materials process, but it was my partner, the co-founder of VistaShares,
John McNeil. He was the president of Tesla. He's on the board
of General Motors. He's the vice chair of their autonomous vehicle division, just a brilliant,
brilliant guy. And, you know, he was looking, and this is going back a couple of years now,
he was looking for an AI ETF to invest in. And, you know, he looked under the hood of what was
out there and he said, wait a minute, this isn't AI, right? I mean, you go in these AI ETFs, they've got, you know, Salesforce and Netflix and, you know, all these other companies
that maybe they're users of AI or investors in AI infrastructure, but they're not AI companies
necessarily. So he said, well, you know, if I was going to build an AI ETF or, you know, a power
infrastructure ETF, I'd want to know where the money's going.
So, and that's where the bill of materials started. So it's really all about
mapping out the supply chain. So let's take data centers, for instance, it's first analyzing the
supply chain to understand what are all the different components that go into building an
AI data center. Then you, you map over the bill of the kind of the over the build sheet, right? So to see how important each segment
of the supply chain is. So for instance, you mentioned power and cooling. Power and cooling
is a key piece. But when you actually dig into how much of an AI data center, how much of a dollar
going into AI data center investment goes into power and cooling, you quickly realize it's almost a third of the cost.
So, wow, that's a good insight, right?
That means that every dollar of these hundreds and hundreds of billions of dollars that is being deployed to build AI data centers around the world, it's going into cooling systems.
So then it's a function of, OK, well, I get it.
Here's an important piece of the supply chain.
This is how much of the build cost it is.
What are the major suppliers?
So then it's really all about mapping the many different power and cooling system companies
to that segment and then digging into their financials to understand whether they
are just in power and cooling generally.
Are they in data center power and cooling or are they an AI data center power and cooling? Or are they an AI data
center and cooling, which is different than just regular data centers? So, you know, that is
generally the process. And we go down the list. So power and cooling, servers and IT, network
equipment, storage devices, backup and disaster recovery solutions, even things like racks and
cable management. So, you know, we want to try to follow the profits.
You know, where are the profit pools within this AI infrastructure build out?
And that's really what AIS is all about.
And then we do the exact same thing on the power infrastructure side with POW.
It's about identifying when, you know, when somebody says I'm building, I'm putting $100 billion into the sector.
What does that really mean? Where are those dollars going? And who is reaping those profits?
So it's a very different approach to portfolio construction. Nobody else is doing anything
like this. We actually filed a patent on this process because it's so novel. And so we're
really proud of it. And then, so that's kind of a rules-based process that it's so novel. And, you know, so we're really proud of it.
And then, you know, so that's kind of a rules-based process
that creates these portfolios.
But the secret sauce is not only in the patent-pending methodology,
but it's in the investment committee that oversees the product.
So if you look at AIS, you know, it's in a very fast-moving sector, right?
AI is constantly innovating, right?
The players who are important to the build out are continuing to change because technology has changed. So you need to have
expertise overseeing the portfolio who really has their finger or their ear to the ground to
understand, you know, what's coming down the pike, what's important today, what might be important
tomorrow. So we have, you know, John Mc important today, what might be important tomorrow.
So we have John McNeil, who I mentioned on our investment committee.
We have Sonny Madra, who is the president of Grok, who, as you may know,
Grok was just acquired by NVIDIA.
So now he heads their hardware division over at NVIDIA.
So, you know, Professor Robert Whitelaw, who's the chairman of the finance department at NYU Eastern School of Business.
So we've got a lot of horsepower overseeing these portfolios to try to identify risks and opportunities for our investors.
Yeah, Sunni Madra and Grok have been in the news a lot recently.
I don't even remember if that happened since you were last on Spaces.
So I'm sure that's been an interesting time for him, for everyone. but a lot of people have been talking about grok over the last little bit
when we were at uh gtc sorry when we were at ces and we were listening to jensen wong we there was
a little like press q and a after and at least a quarter of the questions were around that
direction so it was a lot of interest yeah well grok you know sunny again was the president. And the reason why Grok was so important is because, you know, the whole AI ecosystem is moving toward, you know, to inference now, right?
It was really first in training.
How do you train these models on standardized data sets?
Now it's all about, okay, we've trained them. Now let's introduce new training sets and see if the models are smart
enough to draw conclusions using, you know, data sets that aren't necessarily scrubbed. You know,
and that's a simplified, you know, way of describing the inference portion of the build out.
Model 10, you got your hand up? Yeah, Adam, I have a question. So when you go away from pure place,
in which case, like in the case of data center of power, there's a lot of companies that have
a portion of their business that is traditional, completely in different sectors, especially like power, how do you determine what point, you know, of what percentage is
big enough to move the needle for that company within a thematic that you pick, like a data
center, for example, and how do you weight that? Great question. Great question. So what we do is, you know, kind of the threshold is we try
to find companies that have a minimum of 30% of their revenue base is directly attributed to AI
related projects, or their pipeline is so robust that they are accelerating to that 30% level.
And then there's a few outliers where companies that just have products
that are just so important that may not get to the 30% right away, but they're so important
that the forecast looks like they will be able to hit that over the coming certain periods
of time. So 30% is generally our threshold at present, and that'll go up as the industry matures.
Gotcha.
I appreciate that.
A good question over there from Monitive.
I can't see if you're at...
No, it's probably not still up.
It is a little bit of a glitch in my screen.
Yeah, that is a good question over there.
Stock Talk, do you have any thoughts around the data center theme?
I'm curious.
I know when you're playing this theme, Amcor is one that kind of comes to mind.
Obviously, also the grid is kind of playing on this one,
but we'll be able to center in on that a little bit.
This is obviously a big build-out, big area we're going in.
I'm curious on kind of what themes in this subset are you most interested in.
Is it a basket that you're looking to grow?
Yeah, I mean, I have a lot of exposure.
I have Nebius, obviously, which counts as a data center exposure.
I'm more focused on edge compute a little bit this year,
which is what I have with sena syna and oss
amcor is indirectly related obviously as an advanced chip packager
i own viav viav that's a network connectivity play for data centers um you know they acquired
spirant last year late last year from keysight which which directly folds into network connectivity for data centers.
So I have quite a bit of exposure to it.
I'm always willing to grab some more, but I have plenty of portfolio exposure to the
data center's theme currently.
Yeah, which is smart.
I mean, there's certainly, look, I mean, I think we firmly believe we're still really
early.
We're in the first inning of this build out.
I mean, all of these announcements or most of these announcements that have been made on CapEx spend are just being deployed.
And, you know, they're just starting to be deployed.
So, you know, it takes years to actually deploy all that capital and build out this infrastructure.
And so we're really early.
It's really exciting.
I mean, AIS was up 60 up 60 last year we were the top
performing ai etf in the market um but again no surprise because we are focused on the companies
that are soaking up the profits which you know is very different the other key theme of course and
i'm sure we'll get to it is the power infrastructure you know that is the gating issue and it's funny
you go on x now every single post is about, you know, energy,
right? You've got all these, you know, Jensen, you've got all these people going up there and
with video clips talking about how, you know, electricity is the gating issue. I mean, certainly
chips is another gating issue, right? I mean, we're sold out for years, but we just simply
don't have the electricity. And now we, you know, now there's that new legislation where the hyperscalers need to put their own power generation facilities on their campuses and not rely solely on the grid, which it could cut either way.
It could cut against the traditional electricity providers, but it also opens up new opportunities for capex spend, which is pretty exciting.
Yeah, the grid is a very interesting topic that we've talked about a bunch on the spaces,
and honestly, I would love to get a little bit deeper into it.
First off, ticker we're talking about here is POW, power, but just POW.
talking about here is POW, power, but just POW. It's kind of the very structured approach on the
AIS side of it through the bill of materials and kind of looking what's being used here.
I'm kind of curious the methodology around this one and kind of how we're determining what part
of the grid. Obviously, we've talked about on the spaces a bunch. If you're listening to Stocks
on Spaces, you are interested in this area. I'm sure there's maybe even one or two names in here that uh well definitely would be ones that you know i'm sure
ones that you guys have looked at before but maybe some interesting ones with even in the etf i'm
looking at it but kind of the the build materials in the data center what are we looking at on on
the grid like what are the interesting parts of it and we've talked about batteries and kind of
maintaining that and just building out the lions.
Well, what's interesting, battery technology is definitely something interesting for sure. And when people talk about power or the grid, a lot of people focus on generation, right?
So they get all excited about solar and wind and kind of renewables and nuclear.
Nuclear is a constant topic point.
But if you actually look again,
we see we don't have a generation problem
in the United States.
We have plenty of power.
We don't have the ability to distribute that power
to the end point.
So actually, if you look at where the CapEx spending is going,
certainly about 10, 15% is going into power generation,
but about 50% is going into transmission and distribution.
That's where the gating issue is right there.
So it's transformers, it's cabling,
it's all the kind of the switching equipment.
It's all that boring stuff in the middle
that people don't really think about,
but that's where the money is money is flowing to um because we simply
can't get the power we can generate to the end points um and a lot of that is related to uh lack
of transformers um outdated technology on that side of the business as well so you know that's
the biggest chunk of our exposure is in that transmission and distribution.
Is that what this Powell company does? I'm seeing in the top 10 holdings.
Yeah. So Powell, Prismian, a lot of these companies, Delta, they all have different components related to that transmission and distribution, right? Again, the switches, the heavy switches, the transformers, the cabling, you know, all that stuff that is required to build
that grid out. Quanta is a really interesting company, which I think Stock Talk had talked
in depth about, and he knows these companies even better than me. But they do a lot of that stuff,
but then they actually are the ones that are also, you know, doing a lot of the work around building out the actual line development and things like that.
So, you know, this is all critical block and tackle type work and equipment that's required to get our power to the endpoints, whether it's a consumer home or to a data center.
Quick question.
Do you look at companies listed in other countries,
especially in this sector, in these two thematics?
There's a lot in Europe and Asia that are critical to the supply chain
of power and data centers. So do you look at them?
And if they are not listed as ADR,
do you buy them in local exchanges?
Great question as usual.
Yes, so in fact, that's another differentiating factor
of our portfolios.
In AIS, around 50% of our exposure is overseas, is non-US. Same is with PAL. So we're getting a significant amount of our exposure from these critical companies. And yes, we do by the locals, which we think is important.
company. We've got companies all over the world that are, again, as you mentioned, just critical
suppliers and novel suppliers, right? Where you really have to go to them for the equipment that
you need for the grid. Good question there, Monatif. I appreciate that. Stock talk. I want to ask you
about the switchers, the whole stuff like that. I see a couple names in here that have a $5-10 billion market
cap. Any of these ones you looked
into before?
Powell's the fourth largest
holding in here.
POWL.
Also have
Hubble, Siemens,
Invent.
A couple of these ones we talked about in here.
Is the switching and the kind of grid step part,
or that part of the grid, something that you've looked into?
That was over to you, Mr. Stocktalk.
All right, no worries.
I am probably having some difficulties. This has been a whole space hosted
on the second one, but we are making our way through it. Adam, I've been seeing some of the
posts. We're getting to an exciting time here. It is almost ETF distribution announcements. Now,
the ones we've talked about here don't go around it, but there's a whole suite of Target 15 ETFs.
Obviously, Omaha, O-M-E-H, the Berkshire Hathaway one,
which is a very interesting time now that actually Warren Buffett has
kind of sunsetted in. He's still the chairman, but he also announced that he will not be doing
the annual shareholder meeting coming up.
It's a very interesting time going forward for
Berkshire Hathaway, Warren Buffett.
Makes sense.
But this is one of the, obviously, the really popular ones has taken off.
A lot of people have enjoyed getting behind this one.
$680 million of assets under management.
But there's a whole couple ETFs here.
QUSA, Aki, Drucki.
And then the one that I haven't gotten to talk too much about is S100,
which is the newer one here, the VistaShares S&P100 distribution ETF. But if you guys are following the account that's up here, that VistaShares1, Adam, Patty, whatever, go in, not whatever, go follow both of them.
Fantastic accounts to go in and follow.
to follow. They're talking about the distributions there. But why don't you talk through some of the
They're talking about the distributions there.
kind of concepts here behind the Target 15s and maybe give me a little bit extra about
the newer ones that we got in the year. Great. Yeah. I mean, our Target 15 products
are designed for investors who are looking for stable, repeatable income every month.
And each one of them targets 15% annual income paid out per year, and we pay it
monthly. So we're looking to generate 1.25% per month consistently. So we're not looking to blow
the doors off. We're not looking to beat 15. We're certainly hopefully not going to not hit the 15,
but there's no guarantees, of course. But we haven't missed a month for any of our target
15 since inception of any of the products. And again, we chose 15% because it's a robust income
stream. It's above most of the competitors, but it's not at the level where you're going to start
seeing nav erosion. So we've tested all these portfolios going back 10, 15 years to see what
the impact on the portfolios are.
And, you know, 15% is something we were very comfortable with.
So, you know, you mentioned OMAH, which is our, you know, Buffett product or Buffett inspired or Berkshire inspired product.
ACKY is our Bill Ackman inspired product, DRKY, Stanley Druckenmiller.
And S100 is very different.
It's just your, you just your typical core equity exposure. So
most of the core equity income ETFs out there are around the S&P 500, of course. We wanted to do
something a little different. So when you look at the S&P 500, you quickly realize that about 70%
of your exposure is in the top 100.
So we said, wait a minute, that's interesting.
So if you start going through the holdings, it's all blue chips, right?
The S100 is the blue chip index.
That's always what has been around forever.
It's always been known as the blue chip index.
So we said, let's provide a blue chip exposure to investors with our target 15 options overlay.
And let's do it inexpensively. So, you know,
we're at a 59 basis point management fee, which is less than not less than a couple of the JP
Morgan products, but certainly less than a lot of our competitors in the space, which are kind of
the high 60s or 70s. And, you know, so we have higher income and a lower fee than most of the competitive products out there with with what we think is a very compelling exposure.
And, you know, the 100 largest U.S. stocks, you know, trading.
So we launched it in December.
We paid out our distribution at the end of December, our first one.
And it's it's due to pay out again next Tuesday,
along with all of our other target 15s. This Friday is our declaration day
for all of our income funds. So you need to buy by Friday if you want to get the distribution on
Tuesday. Yep. And that new ticker is SIO. If you guys want to dig into that yourselves,
definitely should be going to the website. Vista shares website will give you guys all of the information that you need to, uh, to
dig into it. We also, I was looking at some of the performances here and I know Stanley Druckenmiller
is one that gets talked about very nicely on the show. Stock talks a big fan in general. A lot of
people are, they enjoy the clips. Uh, Drucky is, is having a nice little run here at the start
of performing some of the others doing pretty well. Yeah. Druck. Yeahucky is having a nice little run here at the start. Outperforming some of the others, doing pretty well.
Yeah, he has a very interesting portfolio.
And this is why we chose these different managers to replicate.
We wanted to have different types of portfolios that perform differently in different markets.
So if you look at Drunken Miller's portfolio. It's very interesting. It's just more, it's just heavier on kind of some biotech type names and just names
that, you know, we don't have in any of our other portfolios.
So, you know, I'm just going down the list right now.
You know, Natera is our top holding.
We have Teva Pharmaceuticals, Inzmed, you know, some other ones are Coupang, not a biotech
company, just an interesting holding
even a company like stub hub which uh went hold went public um about six eight months ago and
got clobbered and you know so he bought it you know hopefully because he sees there uh
has some big upside so yeah very interesting portfolio and um you know the performance
has been lights out which is which is nice to see.
I'm rooting for him.
Shout out to Monitive.
Joining in with his hands up, I appreciate you.
By the way, everyone up here, make sure you are following all of the amazing speakers.
Like I said, Adam is posting a lot of really great stuff from his account.
The VistaShares account, Monitive, Wolf Defense, everyone up here, Wolf Trading, et cetera,
is doing fantastic.
Obviously, Stock Talk.
If you enjoy this type of live for conversations,
make sure you're following the host.
We really do appreciate Adam and the VistaShares team for joining us up here.
Lucky to be joined by some really smart people.
Mr. Monitive?
Yes, sir.
So I have another question.
I apologize.
No, thank you.
This is something very close to my heart because I've been planning to look for more
detail.
Anyway, going back to a thematic ETF, you know, thematics have life cycles and different
industries participate, you know, differently in different parts of the life cycle.
How does your ETF account for that? So, you know, and you see parts of the life cycle. How does your ETF account
for that? So, you know, and you see that in how they run, right? Like early, it's like,
it was all about NVIDIA. Nobody even talked about memory. And then it became,
you know, cooling, then it became power, then it became other things, right? So how do you account for a natural life cycle and what is
critical in a particular life cycle and how does your weighting change as the life cycle of the
thematic progresses? Great question. So taking a step back, you know, in terms of thematics,
we're focused on what John calls super cycles, right? So he has a whole talk about how, you know, in terms of thematics, we're focused on what John calls super cycles.
Right. So he has a whole talk about how, you know, if you go back in history, there's never
been a time where there's been more than one super cycle occurring at one at the same at once.
And what a super cycle is, is a long term disruptive trend, technology driven, that
really changes the way people live and work.
Right. So the last one was the Internet. Right. And that was massive. It created so much wealth and changed the way people live and work, right? So the last one was the internet, right?
And that was massive.
It created so much wealth
and changed the way people live and work.
Now we're living in a time
where there's multiple super cycles, right?
You've got AI, you've got electrification, which is POW.
We've got space, we've got biotech, we've got robotics, right?
So those are kind of the key super cycles
that are occurring, all converging at the same time.
So the way we've approached this is to create this bill of materials process,
which is rules based and transparent.
So investors can really see how we choose our companies,
but we have the flexibility in there and the methodology to keep adding new
supply chains as they become important.
So let's say one day, this is silly,
but let's say semiconductors is no longer as important
to data centers as they are today,
but software is now more important.
So we add the software supply chain to the product,
and that's within the core of the portfolio.
But again, the key is really having
that investment committee comprised of experts so we can stay nimble. And we see the trends,
hopefully before the Wall Street analysts are seeing them. So taking AIS for an example,
Sonny Madra is building data centers all over the world. He knows the technologies.
He knows the companies that are going in and out of favor.
He sees the new products that are becoming important to the build-out that didn't exist
six months ago.
He also sees the companies whose technologies are degraded or being usurped by other technologies.
He sees that because he's the one paying the bills, the bill, the data
center, right? So we take that knowledge and we incorporate that into our portfolio. So we do our
weekly calls. We're reviewing our portfolios every day to find out, you know, should a company be on
our watch list, either because they're not in the portfolio or they are in the portfolio and
there's something structural going on where their technology, for instance, is no longer keeping up.
So we need to keep on top of that. So any of these products out there that don't have an active overlay, we think are inferior because things change so quickly.
You know, we don't wake up in the morning and say, oh, let's trade Palantir. It's down for 10 percent.
oh let's trade palantir it's down for 10 that's not what we do we're looking for structural risks
and opportunities for the portfolio that is going to have long-term impact same thing on pow you
know um sunny's on there on that investment committee with john as well um but we also
have this guy justin lopas who is the chief operating officer of a company called base power
he's the partner of michael dell's son son in building out one of the top energy technology companies in the world.
I was just on a call with him earlier today, and we were talking about his learnings
in Washington, D.C. He was up there talking to government officials about, you know, where the
U.S. government is putting their money, what's important to them. And that's how we get our
insights. And then we, you know,
we translate that into portfolio construction. Okay. So, so, so the bomb and the weightage
of the materials in the bomb both evolve with, with, with the market.
Absolutely. And they, of course, because as, as you mentioned, as the market. Absolutely. And they, of course, because as you mentioned,
as the market matures,
things will become more important or less important
based on where we are in the cycle.
That makes a lot of sense.
And I think the experts are rolling through there.
Like I said,
all this information on the website,
go in, you'll find it.
And I think you should dig into the experts
that you guys are looking in here.
Obviously, Sunni Madra is one that has been in the news a lot recently with the recent acquisition of Grok by NVIDIA,
or whatever the correct terminology actually should be said there.
And obviously, John McNeil, former president of Tesla.
Correct.
There you go.
I mean, quite the people doing some stuff in the space. So was there anything that you we came into this that we haven't covered today, Adam, that you were excited to talk about?
perspectives read about these products because one of the notorious problems in the etf market is
is kind of branding and names i've been i've been in the etf market since oh two so i'm like an old
man in the industry but um it's very true you know a lot of these companies they will slap on
a brand or a theme onto their product you look under the hood and you say wait a minute this has
nothing to do with what i thought i was buying i'm i. I'm paying for the Mag 7 and I'm paying 75 bps for it.
You know, that's not what you want as an investor.
You need to really do your due diligence, look under the hood, make sure what you're buying is what you think you're getting into, which is very important.
And, you know, so we're trying to create products that, you know, we could be proud of and stand behind and that hopefully perform very well.
Now, nothing performs great in all markets, market conditions.
But, you know, we're trying to create a suite of products that work together.
Right. So you've got your kind of stable income products and then you've got your kind of high growth products and, you know, use them together to create a well diversified portfolio.
growth products and use them together to create a well-diversified portfolio.
Some of the tickers we talked about today include AIS, AIS Power, POW, the VistaShares
Electrification Supercycle ETF. We also talked through the Omaha, the Berkshire Hathaway OMAH
ETF, which has a Target 15. You should go to the website. There's
a tweet pinned up in the nest above. SIOO is the newer one that we have up here as well. We are
very lucky to be joined by Adam, Patty and the VistaShares team. There was a question here that
maybe we'll kind of capstone this with around some of the other thematics. We talked through the
data center one. We talked through the
kind of electrification, the grid part of it. Is there any other themes or anything that like
parts of the market that have intrigued you? Maybe even if we don't stuff that you don't necessarily have products coming in soon that maybe that could be working on. I know there's
there's some different stuff there but is there any parts of the market that that you are excited in
some different stuff there, but is there any parts of the market that you are excited in
uh looking forward past 2026 27 2027 that we don't already have yeah yeah i mean we're we're
excited about the super cycles so i mentioned them right um you know robotics is another one
for sure that i'm really excited about space is another one for sure um so you know we're going
to cover all those off but you know we don't need to be first to market in any of these areas.
We need to have the right construction and something we can be proud of.
So hopefully we'll bring those out later in 2026, but not until we've perfected what we're looking to do.
I know you must get that question a lot.
I felt like I saw it once or twice in the description, so I figured we'd get it out
of the way on this one, and we'll give you a couple times without having to ask that one but uh i'm excited about it some
good answers there we have some really interesting ones we talk about the grid so much on this spaces
uh in general so i'm really excited that there is one pow uh that people can take a look into
no matter what on the stuff that you can tell with the vista shares team there is aggressive amounts
of knowledge and research and expertise coming behind these. ETFs are a really great place
to go in and start research in general. No matter what comes out of this, this is a group
of stocks that people who are really informed in the space say, this is important. These
are the ones. And maybe that's the point to go in and start your research. Maybe you're
doing research into all your stocks and you love most of them, all of them, each and every single one of them.
And you're like, you know, you just go in and buy the product.
I know there's a lot of different type of investors out there.
But no matter what, taking a look into these products, seeing what people who have deep knowledge in the space are really kind of in the middle of the industry, I think is nothing but helpful.
So we appreciate you for sharing the knowledge
on the spaces with us.
There's a couple of tweets pinned up in the nest above
and you guys should go in and look at them.
There's the website up there,
a little info on a couple of the ETFs as well.
And then the bill of materials process,
which is also some really interesting information.
If you go on the white paper section
and their fact sheet section,
along with their perspectives,
obviously there's a lot of really great stuff there. Adam adam any final words on the spaces as we close it out no thank
you very much for having me i it's always a pleasure and look forward to the next time yeah
sorry for the headphones and the quality and stuff it really kind of knocked me off by thing the fact
that the second it joined up my my camera came up my uh my headphones went away and i i keep
i don't have my headphones connected
and I keep moving further away from the mic.
So I think my volume control also might be bad here,
but I know this was a great conversation.
I was getting some good messages on the products.
A couple of people were telling me some interesting stuff.
So I appreciate you.
Thank you very much.
Have a great one team.
Make sure you're following the speakers.
VistaShares account up here is pretty great follow.
Adam Patty is a great follow. If you enjoy these type of live free conversations, make sure you're following the speakers. Vista Shares account up here is a pretty great follow. Adam Patty is a great follow.
If you enjoy these type of live free conversations,
make sure you're following the host of this account.
And we will catch you all same time, same place tomorrow.
Intel earnings after the close.
Interesting.
Take care.
Have a good one. Thank you.
