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STOCK MARKET TALK
Recorded: May 20, 2025 Duration: 2:40:06Space Recording
Short Summary
Elon Musk's recent announcements signal a transformative phase for Tesla, with plans for a major autonomous vehicle launch in Austin and potential partnerships that could redefine the company's technological landscape. As the market anticipates these developments, the focus shifts towards growth opportunities and strategic collaborations in the evolving landscape of autonomous technology.
Full Transcription
Thank you. Thank you. Good afternoon.
Is everyone awake on this Tuesday where we finally get some movement here,
I guess, in the last hour, hour and a half or so?
But it's been a very, very boring boring choppy day until this kind of late
day sell-off here as we come down uh qqq hitting down one percent basically right now spy down
about 0.85 as it is continuing to sell off tesla just round trip new high of day to new low of day
in the last hour and oh they're continuing to sell this thing.
Interesting day in the market.
Nothing really to talk about.
There were some news headlines around.
I know some from Apple, some from Google.
I was watching Elon on CNBC a little bit earlier.
So definitely some headlines out there,
but pretty quiet day in the market overall.
But we'll see what everyone's thinking,
what everyone saw out there today.
Evan, good afternoon, sir.
Good afternoon. What's up?
A couple stuff in my world.
There's a lot of like this Google I.O. conference.
Elon Musk had two different interviews that he did.
So I thought it was pretty interesting.
Yeah, a lot of stuff going on on i know maybe it wasn't the craziest
move in the market but there was a a couple interesting headlines uh going on is there
an earnings or two after the close morning we do have uh pan w okay i believe after the close
today there's probably a couple other names other people watching maybe toll brothers or something
you got it those are the two the two main ones i've heard people talk about i'm very interested in uh
palo alto's earnings cyber security but since michael toll brothers on the radar this afternoon
you know i just you know it's 4 30 reports so i won't hang around for it but they tell you the
state of the housing market and that's you know that's kind of important right so to me how they it's not so much i care because i have no position i just want to see
what they say and you know what they're saying because to me if the housing market still remains
strong economy's going to hold up so you know i always look at the housing market and say if the
housing market is strong no matter what crap is going on or chatter the economy is going to stay up with it.
Did you want me to start?
I was just answering the question.
I was just trying to get back unmuted there and I double clicked it so it remuted me.
No, but yeah, if you want to go ahead and maybe kick us off a little bit today,
got to hear, obviously, some great thoughts on a previous space.
But for this crowd and more kind of market-centric, anything out there? I mean, is this kind of expected big move yesterday,
and then just kind of this inside day, I guess, we still have going on today?
We haven't really even got close. we're close to the lows of yes not
really even there that was not mine so I mean I'm bullish on this market I think
I've been you know I I try to be very transparent here and I'm bullish on this
market now there's things that could bring it down right you know this administration could say something or do something that scares the hell out of the market
again like we have had but right now the administration seems to be more in a
complacent mode how's that for a term for this uh yeah it's an inside day again we're at a big spot
when i look at the s p 500 we've been banging our head against that 3% pullback now for three sessions.
If you don't – not in my room.
You're not with me.
We talk about this every day.
That number is 594.83.
Write it down.
Okay?
We need to clear that.
I don't mean for five minutes or 10.
You need to clear that with volume, and you want to see this market just taking it out and running.
And it makes sense because if you look on the way down,
it was support and then we broke it.
So what is support is resistance.
So we're sitting here struggling against it.
We're lacking a catalyst.
You don't have a catalyst right now.
We talked about in the previous spaces,
NVIDIA next week is a catalyst, right?
We know they're going to take a hit on margins,
but it's all about their forward guidance and what they have say uh i i'm sitting in video and i'm very comfortable
sitting in video we don't have a lot coming at us here uh from data this week that you know we have
a lot of fed speak the market doesn't care there's not any big earnings names that are going to move
the market this week we're going into the holiday weekend by the way if you're not paying attention
markets are closed on monday from royal day in the united states you know so by the way i will still tell
my members i told them it's ready if you're tired and you're worn out take friday off make it a four
day weekend take some time away from the market and we all need it so for me today right now you
know get a little bit leave right now get a full a full week. There you go. There you go.
I'm out.
See you.
Goodbye.
Mic drops.
Yeah.
Sorry, everyone.
Options Mike gave me permission to take off the rest of the week.
So you're on your own.
But, I mean, we all need time off.
And I think we all think we need to trade every day.
So for me today, again, I jumped on.
I had Tesla June calls, the 400s.
And I jumped on some next week's 370s and got
myself in a lot of trouble and sold those for a nice loss and then battled back all day i i traded
tesla a couple times i traded moderna i traded qbts which i never trade but i've been trading that
and i got myself back green and got out of all my calls and i you know i'm not green by much i'm
not mean by much i mean like you know I'm green
and the action today has not been easy um I thought the Google by the way event was fine
you know they ran it into it they're selling it off here okay I think we just we need a catalyst
right we need some type of catalyst and right now there is none i know um trump's going to speak today
now anytime now which you know when he says three o'clock that means 334
but it's about the golden dome he may throw something in i just think you need a catalyst
and we don't really have any this week so it could be one of those weeks we just keep going
sideways and that's okay and that could be either side too right a good good or bad
when we're in this type of range right you look i mean every time he speaks you know flip a coin
and maybe flip it multiple times because you may say something the market hates and
there's something the market loves in the same sentence good luck uh but when you look at this
let me ask you when you when you look at this from let me ask you, when you look at this from more of the technical perspective, it's an inside day, again, in the shorter term perspective, the bigger term perspective.
We have those basically six screen closes in a row. EMA 9 is still extended away. It's $6 lower than us right here on SPY.
$6 lower than us right here on spy VIX expiration tomorrow,
which any general thoughts on maybe what happens next,
or does this just make sense that we kind of just cool off until we get a
catalyst?
Technically we have a cup and handle pattern that has developed here on the
S and P 500,
the indexes and we're going sideways.
The VIX expiration tomorrow.
I don't know.
I know that's tomorrow. I just doesn't bother me. It doesn't worry me. I just think we need a catalyst, and I don't know that we're going to get one this week.
which were thought to be close or not.
Europe is now what China was, right?
He's turned his ire on Europe.
China out today is unhappy with us again
because we're not living up to whatever, I guess,
we said we were going to do in the meetings.
We need a catalyst.
And you just need to wait.
Ultimately, I sold some of my positions.
I told you when it came up last week. And I'm holding the rest. And if we dip a little bit, I sold some of my positions. I told you when it came up last week and I'm holding the rest.
And if we dip a little bit, I'll probably buy everything back.
I'm, you know, I'm, I'm, I'm okay with this market.
Yeah. I appreciate those thoughts. It just, you, you start to wonder,
you know, like what's the next catalyst going to be? Do we wait?
I talked about this the other day.
I mentioned this, and I think you kind of hinted toward it a little bit as well.
When you have a powerful move in the market, you either pull back or you consolidate sideways.
Time can be a consolidation for those things to reset, or price can be a pullback.
Either one.
Right now, we're just seeing basically
time consolidation we we haven't hit the eight day you use the nine fair enough they're all the same
right we have the 21 days still well behind we haven't done anything and and like so i look at
today's action and say yeah not the easiest action to trade but we haven't gone anywhere
doesn't change my thesis i don't feel any kind of fear here or panic. And if we would dip all the way to the 21-day and hold it, that would be awesome.
That would be a nice buying opportunity.
I'm not cheering for that at this point.
Give us a nice juicy dip to look at.
The pain trade is the slow float higher, in my opinion.
Well, that's really what it is.
Scott's on here a lot, and I've been following Scott forever. And the pain trade is where I first learned it from him. So I'll give him a shout out. But yeah, the pain trade is when you just keep melting up and it doesn't give an entrance. Right. And, you know, we're not getting an entrance in this market right now. Since we came off the lows, you had one dip and that's it.
Let me ask you one final question before we go on to the next speaker.
But as a day trader on the trading side of things, this is a day trader intraday.
When you see a day like today, what's your method of identifying that, hey, there's probably going to be some chop going on.
I should probably just walk outside for a little bit because that's basically what I did today.
I just want to hear what your thoughts are.
So I got suckered into Tesla um and that was on me and we
we all make mistakes right you know we all chase so i got i put my thousand thousand dollars in the
hole on tesla on the open because i then i then got pigheaded and stuck with it instead of usually
i bail out at like three or four hundred dollars down on it on options i would i stayed with it
but i i was just you know the option the action pre-market was not good.
For me, you look at the market, the opening five-minute candle, we never really took it out.
It was weak right from the start.
You look at names, they were down.
The names I liked pre-market all sold off in the first five, 10 minutes.
I'm like, yeah, okay, it's one of those days.
And I think that's what you have to look at is look at the action and say, you know, wait five minutes. If you put it, if you cannot take out the opening high of that five minute candle, it's either a short day or it's a chop day for the moment until something changes.
That's how I kind of view things.
Yeah, I hear you.
I appreciate that.
Wolfie, let's go over your direction next and see what's on your mind today.
Any commentary around the market itself, trading, and then just anything else that you've got big picture? Yeah, I just continue to lighten up on
things that worked or flip out from just equity to calls if I want to stay involved. I did trade
around the Google event, got a nice little pop before and like right when it started.
Should have cut more. I didn't.
I think Mike just used the word pigheaded. I got a little pigheaded.
And then just, you know, cut them.
I think it was just two fifths of them were about just below break even and then the rest were above.
But went from having a really nice trade to just a ho-hum trade but outside of that haven't really done anything um just besides you
know selling i did sell some rivian for the first time since november i've been talking about that
for a while got up to like close to 60 on the equity so i was fortunate enough to get 17 and a half 2027 call uh yeah 17 and a half 2027
calls and um i felt like as it broke 17 today i'm gonna get a little too overexposed and since this
is not wall street bets i'm gonna just trim some so finally trim some there um i do i don't i mean i don't disagree with
needing a catalyst or whatnot but i i do think that yesterday we were talking about
you know how how yields backed off and if you look today, those yields are like, they're back up, you know, still flirting
with that 5% on the 30 year, for example. I'm not sure with the 10 years, let me just check real
quick. Flirting with, you know, four or five plus on 10 year. I do think that's still going to be
the thing to kind of watch. The gold trade bouncing right off the 50-day was interesting.
Some of this emerging markets retesting and then holding was interesting.
You know, I think it's – I remember whenever Tesla had their earnings,
saying that the bad news hasn't really made a move,
so you want to watch the next couple of days if it doesn't sell off,
could see two 90 above two 93 could see three 20 and overshot that
expectation.
I do find it interesting that Musk is doing a little PR stunt now after
kind of going into hiding.
I thought that was interesting.
A little,
you know,
headline management or whatever term you want to use. thought that was interesting. A little, you know, headline management or whatever term you want to use.
I thought that was interesting.
And then I thought it was interesting that it sold off on the back of it.
You know, we'll want to see how it plays out in the next couple of days or
whatever, but you know, 50%.
Keep going. But you started talking negative about Tesla there.
And then we got Omar and Stocktalk and you're like, act back um it was perfect timing so we're gonna go down that one but
yeah continue cool yeah so you know for the record i'm the guy who i've owned tesla since
37 bucks pre pre pre pre pre pre split 2013 or whatever it was so talking talking about what i
see um you know i thought it was interesting
because you generally he would you know he'd speak and then they'd ramp it and they'd follow
through they didn't follow through they broke the high and then they they sold off which has also
kind of been the case for a lot of these winners in the last few days so take a look at like spotify
yesterday made an all-time high backed off take a look at
like ibm made an all-time high backed off that seems to be like kind of like the case
so an example i've used before is if you just take a glass of water and just keep putting sugar in it
eventually you get to a point where it doesn't you know you get that saturation point i kind of feel
like for this move we might have gone to the saturation point um and then on the back of
the memorial day if we don't get anything that really kind of
flushes things aggressively um you could set up for a moment where people just kind of punt and look for the Fed day, which is like 29 days away or 28 days away or something like that.
Where, you know, if you were bullish and you've had upside and you're looking for these dips to buy, you buy it, right?
And that just kind of creates a little bit of an underlying buoyancy.
And then if you were a bear and you're waiting to short or you started shorting again, you don't really have that catalyst to really sell it.
So kind of chases things a little bit.
But in that melt up, you know, slow and steady type of thing.
And the reason that's important is if you just take a look at like UNH, for example,
and I know UNH doesn't usually trade the way that it's traded, but if you weren't buying
into that real blood, like in between 250 to 280, and you started buying it afterwards,
you really didn't get, just from an options perspective, you didn't really get
just from an options perspective, you didn't really get that aggressive of a return on that
risk that you took. So I think today at one point, someone was talking to me about how their options
were up like 5% despite the aggressive move. And I think that that could kind of be some of the
stuff that we see on some of these other names moving forward
you know as as we set up for nvidia so that's a long-winded way to say for me i'm a little bit more
uh playing a little bit more defensive stuff and i bought golden the 50-day um you know i bought some
some vix calls last week, a few months out.
And outside of that, I'm looking for idiosyncratic risk reward.
I think the commentary around Toll Brothers is important from the housing standpoint,
especially on the back of Home Depot having a rare earnings miss.
And Home Depot highlighted in their quarter that they see a little softening demand in the high ticket items from the consumer. That's interesting to me. Obviously, the housing market's a little
stagnant with rates where they're at. I think they're at 7% now in mortgages. So
want to pay attention to that kind of stuff. And then lows as well as earnings, I think,
tomorrow. So want to pay attention to what they have to say. And then if we start to have more and more of these ho-hum quarters, but nothing crazy, I think then people
will turn their attention to NVIDIA to be like the catalyst for that intermediary gap between
now and the Fed. So that's kind of like where I'm at, just a little bit defensive, taking profits on stuff, flipping out of equity into calls if I can.
And then, yeah, that's it.
Appreciate those thoughts, Wolfie.
Omar, I do want to get your thoughts.
We did see I was watching as well.
Thanks for the heads up, by the way.
I saw you tweet that out.
That's kind of what brought my attention to it.
But Elon on CNBC today making making several comments, would love to
hear kind of your reaction thoughts around what was given out there. I also saw the US Transportation
Secretary, Sean Duffy, was out there taking a ride in a fully autonomous Tesla with Elon right
there on CNBC. What are your thoughts around what we got today? Did we learn anything new?
Thousands of vehicles in the next few months is pretty exciting.
Yeah, pretty interesting day.
We had Google's I.O. conference.
We also had Elon give that interview to CNBC and the transportation secretary speaking.
You know, we've had self-driving cars here in the United States for some time,
but we're hitting a new phase of the scale up.
There are millions of driverless cars launching or giving rides every day here in the United States.
Things are scaling up quite nicely.
Generative AI and the technology has just allowed this to work in the real world in a way that it hasn't in the past.
And more and more of these cars are being added on the road. Tesla's about to launch their service
in Austin, sort of dipping their toes into the water there. So I think to see the transportation
secretary at Tesla's factory talking about a national framework for autonomous driving, not the current state-by-state regulation,
that I think is significant. And it's a little bit of a different tone than we've heard from
NHTSA in the past. So, you know, people are so negative on Tesla right now. If you read the news,
you hear that sales are imploding and the brand is destroyed because
Elon is involved in politics.
But as Musk said in the interview, there's some pros and cons, right?
There's the cons, obviously, of getting into politics, which is that you need some resistance.
But the pros, of course, are that you can potentially set up from a regulatory perspective this business to emerge and grow.
And I think the transportation secretary sort of buy-in on that.
You know, he took a ride with Elon at the Tesla factory and just sort of the comments he made in general.
Even asked about an investigation.
He kind of downplayed it.
He said, look, you know, this is our job.
We do these types of things. They're pretty routine. So, you know, the combination
of the scale up we're seeing in autonomous driving and the regulatory support we're seeing here
with the interview in CNBC and the transportation secretary's statements,
it seems like this is something that is really going to be cleared as a hurdle
in terms of the cumbersome process of getting this approved on a state-by-state basis.
If you have really a federal regulatory framework where you can get approved once and run across the country,
that's when this technology really starts to enter the mainstream.
I'm curious, though.
What do you think of the switch up, though, over the last couple days and weeks?
I think this is kind of the point that Wolf is going to have.
Elon was talking, if you look at his Twitter feed from this week versus a this week versus a month ago, it's probably, you know, unrecognizable where it was like all about
politics then. And now it's all about like Tesla and SpaceX and stuff like that. Um, and the
interviews today I thought were actually really, really interesting. Um, and these weren't the
type of interviews that we were getting over the last little bit. So I don't know. I'm just curious your thoughts on like the, uh,
the kind of ER, I don't know if turnaround's the right word or PR focus over this last little bit of getting back to Tesla. You think we're going to get him on the giga cast over this next couple
weeks? I think we might. Well, I mean, I'm not sure things have gotten much better, but they
were just kind of at a point where they couldn't get any worse.
So he's going out.
He's doing some interviews.
I mean, I think he's definitely focusing on Tesla more.
I don't think the situation with the government was ever meant to be a permanent situation.
He got in.
He got the guy elected.
He went in in the early days of the administration.
They set up some of the infrastructure, the technical infrastructure. He got to know people. There are limits on how long he can work in that government capacity as a special government employee without going his focus back now to Tesla, to SpaceX, to his other companies.
And we're starting to see the results of that.
So, I mean, we were here talking not that long ago on earnings and everyone, bulls and bears alike, were just saying, man, these are just horrible, abysmal, dog shit earnings.
This business is imploding. This company's headed down the drain.
And look at how the stock has performed since then. I don't think anybody necessarily
was expecting that to happen. So they have successfully convinced investors or the street that this narrative of AI and robotics is more important than the weak auto business that continues to drive most of their revenue and earnings today.
Doc Talk, I'm curious
if you had any thoughts on the headlines we were getting out today.
Yeah, I mean, look, I think it's a good thing.
Like Omar said, I don't think anyone expected this to be permanent.
It's nice to see him sort of stepping away.
I don't want to say like actually stepping away
because he's not actually stepping away yet
but it's nice to see him stepping away verbally at this juncture um look i'm actually on the same
side of the political aisle as elon for what it's worth but you know there's going to be people out
there that are like really gung-ho about idea that he got into politics. For me personally, I mean, you know, I was a fan of the Elon that was tweeting about robots all the time and, you know, talking about, you know, Mars and FSD and talking about the technologies he was building.
That's the Elon that like I became a fan boy of before he was involved in politics. And like back in 2015,
when I started investing in Tesla, that's, that's the Elon that like, you know, I became a fan of.
And so I would like to see, you know, not, not 99% of his feed dedicated to politics like it is
today. I know there's some people that like that. I don't though, personally. And so I am glad
that he's stepping away and getting back to building things, which is what he's best at,
in my opinion. So yeah, I like what I heard today from his comments. And look, he's going to remain
an advisor. I don't think his influence in this administration is going to wane as a consequence of it.
I just think his time input will probably get softer, which is a good thing, I think, for him and all of his companies.
So, yeah, I think it's a good thing.
Evan, what were your thoughts?
Did you get a chance to watch that interview at all?
I did watch them both.
I thought the commentary around, this was like the most we heard about the launch coming up in June
around FSD, how they're going to scale it
they're going to start with 10 fully autonomous ones they're going to geolock it i don't think
it's out i think they said there's going to be no one in the in the driver's seat as well
someone correct me if i'm wrong there yes yes he's no no safety driver in the car
i don't know it seems like it's going to work i mean waymo has been able to do something like
like this in a geolocked area so i see no reason. It wouldn't be able to work.
And then he was talking about hundreds of thousands and millions by the end of next year.
We're getting more data and timeframes on this. So I thought that was my biggest takeaway from
this one. Also, when he asked about brand damage and kind of sales damage, he talked about how
outside of Europe, the recovery is already happening so um i'm excited
to see more data maybe that comes at the end of next month when we get the delivery numbers
or the beginning of the month after next that um but i thought that was very interesting commentary
can i can i follow up real quick um the The headline that I took on the first interview that I thought was interesting was the quote where he'd spend a lot less on future campaign donations.
So kind of speaking to that comment that Stockton was talking about, how he wants him.
You know, he's more of a fan of the guy who's talking about robots and the future and all that stuff.
the guy who's talking about robots and the future and all that stuff so i thought that was interesting
So I thought that was interesting.
um i just when i was saying look when i made a comment on him having this the pr pump for me it
was more a comment to you know you had the google ai today and it was kind of like a sell the news
or non-event event where premium died and then you know he did his cnbc secondary second interview on cnbc
and the stock went to a new high but then from there fell and made a new low and it's not like
it generally you know sold off and failed 20 or any of that stuff it's just kind of like
yeah cool you know it wasn't like i feel like if if that headline would have come
or if you would if you would have been speaking let's say three weeks ago or two weeks ago let's
say uh a headline like that could have possibly moved the stock 300 320 in a blink right uh and
then kind of created that buy pressure but i don't really think that we're seeing that right now
it could be a function of just people more people lightening up and moving on for the long weekend
it could be a function of uh just you know positioning and all that stuff but that's kind of
like the point of saying that and then the second point was uh being more he's making it more of a point to be more visible, in my opinion, which for the Tesla bulls, like Stocktalk, not the ones that are bullish no matter what, I think is a boat of confidence to them.
stock talk do you have any other thoughts around that conversation with with tesla with waymo
with where we're headed into awesome what what's the best case and worst case scenario that can
come out of this in a few weeks um I think the best case scenario is just a successful launch period, right?
Like if there's no issues and, you know,
they have rides commencing in Austin seamlessly, which I think they will.
You know, I don't think as much as Elon is ambitious by timeframes,
I don't think, you know,
he would push for this program to launch or go live with real customers or real riders.
I don't know what their pricing situation is going to be.
They haven't really discussed that.
But I don't think they'd go live with real riders if he didn't feel like it was ready.
And so I think it'll be a successful launch.
I'm actually surprised that he stuck with the June timeframe when he mentioned that.
I thought it was a little bit too ambitious, but they're sticking with it, which is nice to see.
There have been a couple of notes that have come on the last few days sort of hailing the idea that they're going to be able to successfully launch in June.
Look, Waymo has real scale, right?
We've discussed this before.
Waymo, somebody posted this yesterday.
I don't know if it was doing more rides than Lyft now in certain cities,
which is crazy to think about.
Lyft has hundreds of thousands of drivers.
Waymo has a couple of hundred cars.
Think about that.
That's mind-boggling and
and that to me is just an indication of where we're headed i mean you know i think a lot of
people thought of autonomy at least a few years ago as this like faraway dream and you know okay
cool cars might be able to drive themselves someday but there's going to be you know skeptics
and and and people who don't want that to happen and people want to drive their
own cars and feel the engine and yada, yada, yada. A lot of the same arguments we heard about horses
when, you know, the first automobiles came out. And people cling to technologies of comfort,
technologies of convenience. You know, I think I brought up this example before, but
like landlines, right? Like when cell phones came out, like I remember when I was growing up,
my mom was like, I'm never not going to have a phone in the house. And even when cell phones
came out, she was like, Oh, I'm always gonna have a landline. Like, I'm not not gonna have
a phone at the house. Like, how are people gonna reach me? Within like six months, there was no
phone in the house. And like, it's this sort of psychological behavior thing of like
people believing that new technologies are this like far away impossibility. And it happens every
time with every new technology, everyone's like, Oh, that's never gonna happen. Like, Oh, it looks
cool, but we won't quite get there. And it's easy to be a skeptic. I always say this, you know,
people kind of like mock technology bulls as like, Oh, they're always perma bullish. But it's like it's easier to be a skeptic of new technologies if you really think about it. Right. It's much easier to look at a new technology and say, oh, that's never going to work. It's never going to be mass market. That's like it. That's an easy position to take.
to take. But it's, historically speaking, almost always the wrong position to take.
And, you know, I think what Waymo has done in the last few years is a demonstration that society is
ready for autonomy, that the demand is there. Waymo, I think, has proven the demand. They've
proven the skeptics wrong who say, like, people would never want to sit in a driverless car i was actually in scottsdale two weeks ago for uh my buddy's bachelor party and we were taking
waymos everywhere like literally everywhere we didn't get one uber the whole weekend we were
just in waymos the whole weekend and there were like a ton of people doing it too like we were in
old town uh in scottsdale and at night there was literally like seven Waymos that pulled up to the bar, like simultaneously to pick people up when we were leaving.
So the concept has been proven. And the question now is whether you think Waymos LIDAR based geo mapped approach is superior to Tesla's pure vision-based approach. And even if you think that Tesla is going to initially take a geofenced approach,
which it seems like they're doing with Austin initially,
even if you believe that that's going to be the case,
Tesla still has the optionality that when they feel vision is ready
to go for that wide release and capitalize on all the vehicles that they have,
the millions of vehicles that they have around the world.
So I do think Tesla still has that ace up their sleeve when it comes to the ability to
deploy an autonomous system rapidly and broadly, instantly. I think that's a unique advantage that
Tesla has that no one else has. But yeah, I mean, you have to give Waymo their flowers. They have launched the first, in my view, very successful full-scale autonomy program
that's probably making decent money on the top line at this point.
It's obviously not a profitable venture for Google.
There's a ton of money that's gone into it.
But it's probably making a decent money at the top line at this point, which is nice to see.
And again, I think it's a proof of concept that autonomy, that the market is ready for
autonomy. Within a few years, I think people will be really, really stunned. I think in major cities,
you will see a lot more of this. You know, anybody who's been to Scottsdale or San Francisco or any
of these places has seen these things everywhere. And, you know, Waymo has what 10 new cities on the docket this year.
I think they've already launched in two at the start of this year or starting to launch
in two.
So another eight they have on the docket by the end of the year, by next year, every
major city in America will have autonomous vehicles operating in it by the end of next
year.
That's pretty fricking crazy.
You think about it like three years ago, like, did anyone think that?
I mean, I don't know, you know? So yeah, by the end of next year,
if everything goes according to plan, you should have 22 cities, 22 major cities in the United States operating autonomous vehicles, uh, or I shouldn't say operating autonomous vehicles
because no one's operating them, but autonomous vehicles operating within those cities. Um,
them, but autonomous vehicles operating within those cities, you know, and maybe some teleoperators
thrown in here and there. But yeah, I think it's great. I think it's, I love the advancement of
technology and, you know, it's good to see us getting closer to the, the end point when it
comes to fully autonomous vehicles. But yeah, I give props to Waymo. I give them their flowers.
You know, they were technically first to market when it comes to a fully autonomous system.
So you have to give them their props there.
But yeah, Tesla is doing a great job too.
And I'm looking forward to that June launch.
And we'll see how it goes.
I'll be in Austin.
I mean, Austin's like two hours away from me.
I'm in Dallas.
So I'll drive over there and check it out as soon as it launches.
And maybe post a video. Maybe Evan will hours away from me. I'm in Dallas. So I'll drive over there and check it out as soon as it launches and maybe post a video.
Maybe Evan will fly down with me.
The fact that there's only 10 of them, I don't want to come.
And then I'm fighting like 75,000 other Tesla nerds to get in one.
That's okay.
We'll get a Waymo if there aren't any available.
All right.
Well, can I tell the Waymo to just follow the tesla
i don't know if they have voice commands yet maybe maybe in a couple years
i will say when we were in san francisco recently it felt like there was also zooks out there with
even with tesla's too uh driving fsc like at least like 20 30 of those cars were full self-driving it was for anyone who doesn't
think that it's possible i would say go to san francisco right now absolute shithole i'm sorry
for for that downtown city area anyone who loves it um but that feels a lot nicer scottsdale was
really cool yeah scott downtown scottsdale scottsdale was very nice um or the old town
scottsdale which we were talking about i went over there it's cool um yeah like i i have seen these cars doing it we've taken away
mo and it's it's it's definitely possible yeah that's not a debate anymore like if anyone
seriously takes that position that it's not possible like i mean that's just the position
of ignorance like you can't you can't say that anymore and it's funny because there are still like
skeptics of technology skeptics i like to call them because they're skeptical of every technology but
um there's still technology skeptics out there that say that that say like well this is never
going to happen cars can't drive themselves like well they are they're they're driving themselves
there's no drivers in the seats they're giving millions of rides like it's over it's here
like it's there's no debate about if it works or not the debate now is about market share and uh
speed of rollout that's that's the conversation to have you know if you want to believe you know
somebody's going to win over another person cool that debate can be added but um the debate about
like it does this technology work,
that's not a debate anymore.
Omar, let me ask you kind of the same line of things.
Where is the launch a success? Where is the launch a success?
Where is it not a success?
And is this going to be like Apple and Samsung?
Are we seeing Apple and Samsung smartphones
happen in real time with the Waymo and RoboTaxi race?
Yeah, I think StockTalk nailed it.
And that's kind of the high order bit for investors is, I think every investor, you know, it doesn't matter if you're invested in utilities or growth equity or REITs.
Every investor, I think, needs to be watching what's happening here because it's going to be transformative, not only autonomy, but the deployment of AI robots in general.
But autonomy is one that's really happening pretty near term. People can see it. People can use it.
So that, I think, debating about who's going to win, who's going to dominate the market is
another story. But I think everybody can see that this is here and it's starting to scale fast.
And we're very much in the scaling phase.
So, you know, now we're entering into a world where if this technology works and AI continues to improve,
there's really a demand for, I think, millions of these vehicles.
We need to put millions of these vehicles onto the street all across the country.
And Tesla, I think, is probably the best equipped company to do that.
Waymo has this new Mesa, Arizona manufacturing plant.
They're making, you know, they say they have capacity for maybe tens of thousands once it's fully ramped.
The cars Tesla is going to be using in their robo-taxi service in Austin, they are already making over a million a year of that exact car.
So it'll be the first time you can take a driverless car, but you can actually buy that car and have it drive you home, have it take you on road trips, have it drive you anywhere
without a geofence. So I think it is going to be like another space race, right? You can, you know,
kind of draw comparisons to Apple and Samsung, certainly, or Google and Android and Apple,
or, you know, even the US and the Soviet Union. But I think competition is a very powerful force.
And we're probably going to see an Uber-like situation,
I think, in autonomous driving,
where you have a bunch of companies
that are pouring capital into this space,
probably incurring a loss in many cases,
just to establish a sort of foothold on this market,
the way Uber did in the early days of ride sharing. And I think who can control those
customers, who can win them over, that's going to be quite a significant market long term.
I think most of automotive transportation will probably move to an autonomous ride share model rather than the sort of buy or lease a car model that's common today.
You also mentioned the Google event today.
Did you take any thoughts away from that with some of the things they were touting
with the AI, with the glasses?
AI mode in search.
Yeah, they had some nice stats about Waymo
during the presentation, which was good to see.
They launched some new subscription plans,
which I think are great,
sort of matching OpenAI's $200 a month
subscription plan. They launched a $250 a month subscription plan that includes all their AI,
30 terabytes of storage. So really pairing their existing Google offerings with their AI offerings.
I thought that was pretty interesting. They had some great new tools
for their products utilizing some of their AI features.
They had a new coding assistant that they called Jules.
So this is kind of the new thing, these coding agents, where it's not so much an LLM you talk to.
It can kind of go off and work and then come back to you.
So that was really interesting to see.
was really interesting to see. They had a XR platform, Android XR. They've done a partnership
They had an XR platform, Android XR.
with Qualcomm and Samsung, basically making a augmented reality OS to kind of rival Apple
Vision Pro, but doing it with the kind of open Android ecosystem. So that I think is
interesting as well. You know, overall, they've got an incredibly strong AI team
and I thought
some of their
presentations were pretty compelling.
They're definitely
one of the top AI
companies in the world and they're
integrating it all throughout their product.
So I'm a Google
shareholder.
I think they've got a bright future and it was a great presentation.
I thought it was a very interesting one.
I wonder how many times they said AI during this.
I'm sure someone has posted about it, but it must have been a couple thousand.
The Google Beam thing, I know it means absolutely nothing,
but I love the whole kind of AR technology of it.
And I think that's something that got a really bad rep with a couple of things.
You know, everyone making fun of Oculus.
I think that's something that's closer than people think too.
Where does Apple compare with that, Evan, with their device?
Well, okay, so Google Beam, what they announced today,
was something completely different. It's basically
like a conference wear
tech that you could put people in 3D.
Basically something no one is ever
going to use or buy, but it's a cool technology
feature which might be going in a certain
direction.
We'll see what the next Vision Pro is. I really think
that this whole wearables
area is going to be, at least in the US,
a meta versus Apple tank.
Yeah, it's interesting. I mean, you saw meta get into this space way ahead of time
with the Oculus. That's been a flop. The Reality Labs has been a huge drag on their earnings,
almost comically so. But now you're seeing others in the Mag7 start to invest in this. I think with generative AI, a lot of these products start to make more sense.
So it's still something that I think is a little bit ahead of its time.
It's not quite mainstream, but you are seeing products like the Meta Ray-Bans that are seeing a decent amount of success.
So I think it's probably a category of computing that's going to continue to grow in the future.
I just got my pair of Meta Ray-Bans literally delivered today.
It's a great product.
It looks just like a regular pair of glasses, but it's got a camera on it.
You can record these photos and videos that are super candid.
You can say, hey, Meta AI, take a picture of what I'm looking at.
And then you can ask a question to
the LLM right there on the device. It'll just read the answer back to you. So, you know, these sort of
wearable computers where it looks just like a regular pair of Ray-Ban glasses, but it's got this
AI functionality embedded, it's pretty compelling. I would recommend people go check it out if they haven't tried it.
Omar, I have a question though. How does it work with storage space of recording videos?
Because I think there's like what, 32 gig hard drive in there? Or how does that work?
So they limit how long you can take a video. I think you can take up to a minute.
And a still photo doesn't take that much space
Then you have to kind of sync it to your phone. So they'll sync it to your phone
They'll delete it off the device and that's how they kind of manage it But yeah, it's limited in terms of the length of the video you can take because of the limited storage space available
It's uh, it's great if you're a golfer. I don't know if you're a golfer, but it's great for golfing
It's great if you're a golfer.
I don't know if you're a golfer, but it's great for golfing.
Mark Zuckerberg is such a great CEO.
I will say that the MO for Zuckerberg, yeah, I'll come to you, Wolfie.
The MO for Zuckerberg, I feel like everyone will talk about how he will take things,
take other people's ideas.
And this whole metaverse thing, if we actually end up going in that direction, maybe you could say that on a smaller scale, but that was one of the ones that he's been driving behind and was more of a leader in some of these other ones.
So far, it's been a business disaster.
There are a lot of people who had the right idea, but they were ahead of their time.
Before Apple did the iPhone, they did the Newton.
It was a great idea. It just wasn't ready yet. So that's the tough thing in business, not just
knowing what the future of computing looks like, but knowing when it's the right moment. And
so far, they haven't been able to make it make financial sense. But who knows,
maybe someday in the future, it will actually be a more material part of their business.
Very often with new technologies, and this includes VR, the form factor of the hardware is really the, it's like the last puzzle piece to mass adoption.
You know, I think the video game industry is a good example of this.
Like, if you go back to, like, when PlayStation, in the wake of Atari and all these initial video game hardware companies, when PlayStation came out with the first mass market PlayStation,
mass market PlayStation and you look at the adoption in video games on a per capita basis
globally with the introduction of video game consoles, it was massive.
The amount of players globally went up enormously in the first three years.
And then when the PS2 launched, there was another inflection to the upside in global
gamers.
Why? Because consoles offered an affordable mass market access point,
hardware access point, to play modern games.
Whereas prior to mass market consoles, you needed a PC,
just like you do today for some of the more, you know,
GPU demanding games, you need a PC.
Like, oh, there's plenty of games out there that you can't play on console.
That was the sort of mass market hardware point that they came with in video games
that led to the industry expanding rapidly globally.
You need that to happen in VR, right?
Like all of the current renditions of these VR AR
headsets there's something wrong with all of them at least the ones I've used
you know the vision Pro was way too heavy not enough apps the previews were
more impressive than the product just in my view I tried them both but and then
with oculus I think it's actually a pretty good product but you know there
are complaints from people about the ecosystem.
There are complaints from people about the weight still, even though I don't think the new to Oculuses are that heavy.
But it's not a mass market product. It's not a mass market hardware product yet.
And so somebody is going to get to that point, whether it's Meta getting there with the, you know, Meta's trying to crunch the distance between their Ray-Ban AI glasses
and the Oculus program. They're trying to close this distance between those two programs,
bring them closer together and get somewhere with, you know, I don't know if people remember
Google Glass, but get somewhere to that end point where, you know, somebody has a pair of transparent
lenses or a pair of glasses that they can put on and have a real VR, AR experience through those
glasses. That's where the market wants to be. And, you know, obviously Zuckerberg's trying to
get there. He's talked about this a lot. He talked about this on his last couple of podcast
appearances as well, that he's like,
look, I like our VR headsets, but he's like, I'm not going to wear it around all day in
public, right?
And he's like, that's what we need to get to.
We need to get to the device that people will wear around all day.
And that's an important point, you know, because that's the sort of inflection that takes it from, oh, this is a niche market where, you know, we've sold a couple hundred million of them to, oh, this is a mass market.
This is the new, you know, standard for personal compute.
And now we're selling billions of them.
That's the next step.
And, you know, Apple's obviously trying to get there as well. There have been many reports in the last several months that Apple's scrapping their whole Vision Pro program
and going for something closer to, you know, a lightweight pair of glasses, or they're trying to do that at least.
We'll see where that goes. And that's what Meta's trying to do, too.
So, you know, that's, I think, the form factor that'll get us to mass market when it comes to VR, AR.
It's just a matter of who gets there first. So, you know, that's, I think, the form factor that'll get us to mass market when it comes to VR, AR.
It's just a matter of who gets there first.
How big of a market do you think this is, Stock Talk, this wearable technology?
I think it's absolutely massive. I think everybody who has the glasses I the glasses I agree with I think meta made the
right choice by going with the glasses that I think the the big even the the oculus the uh
the vision pro I I just think they're so clunky I think you're gonna have a lot more trouble with
those maybe they catch on eventually but I think as a no that's just a b1 that's never what they're
going to be doing and the thing is is i think what stock talk was saying and why meta i think has done
it right is they went from both sides of it they did the where the font form factor has to be and
what tech you can get in there right now and the exact other way of what tech you can do right now
and great and whatever form factor has to be in um you know one is more more for the enthusiast. One is more for the everyday person.
It's clear which way you have to move towards.
So do they make those glasses with prescription?
Can you get those?
Like, yes, you can.
Yes.
Sorry about everyone with glasses.
The real market is everyone with a phone, right?
Like, ideally, and this is really ideally, because I don't know if it's going to shake out this way.
I don't have a crystal ball.
But ideally, if you're Zuckerberg, what you want to see is you want to see people move away from the cell phone as the hub of personal computer.
Right.
Like, everyone has a cell phone in their pocket.
Everyone uses it to search, look stuff up, make calls, interact with their environment, etc., etc.
Once these things get good enough and lightweight enough and have good enough battery life, which may take a long time, may not take a long time.
I don't know.
When we get to that point, what you're going to hope if you're a purveyor of these technologies, like Zuckerberg or even like Apple, is that this is the next generation of personal computer.
So if your question is, what's the market?
Well, if that's the goal, then the market is every person with a cell phone, which is a huge market, maybe the biggest market.
So, yeah, I think that's what this is.
This is an attempt to rethink the way that we think about personal compute
the same way that the cell phone did.
I mean, I'm sure everybody remembers dial-up from when you were growing up,
dial-up internet.
Think about how far we've come from that, right,
and how the hardware has changed for PCs since then, where you had these dusty,
off-white, gray-colored PCs that ran super slowly and had dial-up internet to now you have super
fast wireless internet that's pretty affordable. You have devices that have 10,000 times the
compute power as the devices we had in the late 90s.
So stuff moves quickly.
I think right now the limiting factor with these VR sets
is that you're trying to fit a lot of compute and battery power
into something that looks aesthetically pleasing, and that's tough to do.
You know, phone, it's easy because it's a brick we carry around in our pocket,
and all those components can be hidden in the phone. But it's harder with glasses and zuckerberg's talked about this too about how
they really struggled initially with the ray-ban glasses to fit all the tech into the sides that
you put on your head uh he said it was really difficult for them to do it took them years to
figure that out so that's kind of this is more of a tooling and manufacturing
and design problem initially until somebody comes up with the right form
factor and then you go from there but yeah the market is massive if this is
the next form of personal compute the markets you know billions people yeah
just kind of thinking about the progression of these LLMs and where it takes computing.
Today, we have these phones with us all the time because we have to use these apps.
If in the future we have these agents that can execute tasks for us without us having
to manually poke through the apps ourself, that's probably going to change the
way we use computers quite a bit. So fast forward 10 years, I'm not 100% certain we'll be in a
smartphone world. So I have an investment in a private company that is in this space. And just from one of their pitch deck slides,
they have estimates from a conservative side
to the upper end by 2030,
between $140 billion and $194 billion,
just to put a number on that for you.
Do we think the hub for this thing is always going to be the phone or is there a world where
they start to put the uh cellular cellular piece no i think in the chip i think it's a chip i think
that's the point the whole point here is that mark zuckerberg thinks that that's this is going to
replace the phone but what about the screen he wants to own that platform is the screen going
to be are you going to have a heads-up display at some point? A contact lens.
Again, the screen's on the thing, on your glasses or on whatever.
That is what Mark Zuckerberg has talked about here,
is seeing what Apple has had with this platform
and the importance of owning the next platforms.
All these debates that we're having with the Apple app store,
I bet you're going to be having in like 30 years
on the meta, Ray-Ban,
whatever.
But Evan,
as far as it comes to Apple
and Apple making it difficult
for other brands
to have the connectivity,
does Apple not have
a huge opportunity
to get into this glasses thing
and have it just seamlessly?
They do.
And I think that that's why
that's why they're doing it.
That is what they are doing.
That is what the start
of the Vision Pro is.
They just took the different approach, the first meta approach of,
let's just throw all the tech in it we can.
It literally has an external battery.
Who the hell was ever going to use that?
But I think it's about the tech and where it's going.
And I think Apple saw it as an existential threat
because I think it is an existential threat.
So, yeah. I genuinely believe
the direction that phones are going
is wearables and stuff like that.
And glasses and
whatever will end up being a big part of it.
Maybe I'm wrong. You know, Apple also announced their event.
I'm surprised you didn't mention that.
I figured you would be the first one.
That's what I was going to say when he said
he'll get back to me. Exactly, yeah. And then the next
step I'm going with that is,
what do you think they're announcing?
I mean, AI app strategy?
What do you defer from that, Evan?
And do we get anything more than just,
hey, this is what our strategy is going to be?
What exactly are you referring to?
I might have missed it.
The headline that I saw said that they were going Take 2, by the way,
wait a second, Take 2 is dumping
right now $1 billion stock
offering after hours. Okay, what were you saying?
Boy, they've got to get that
GTA going. I need more
money. Alright, so what
I'm asking, the headline I saw, it said that
they were going to unveil its
AI app strategy was the quote that
I saw.
That, I don't know, maybe I'm reading too deep into the lines here.
No, they also had another headline.
This is why I said that was interesting.
They had another headline that came out just as the Google event was going to pop off about 45 minutes before.
Open sourcing their models? They're going to let developers build AI apps using their own models. Yes.
And I thought that was interesting because it's basically like getting in front
and my opinion, it's probably getting in front of some of the stuff that was
going to be out there so that they're not measured as though they're,
they're lagging or something like that.
So I think it's going to be AI-centric,
or they're going to try to make it as AI-centric as they can.
And that, you know, from not having like a llama or something like that,
I think that's the thing to possibly watch for.
Yeah, it's interesting.
With the Apple Vision Pro, it's a horrible product, but a great tech demo.
And you can really see the potential of an interface like this where you're moving between apps, not by swiping on the screen, but by tilting your head.
If I turn around, I see the app that I left behind me.
So you have the potential to kind of make the whole world your screen real estate.
And the AI on the device is looking at how you're moving your head
and is redrawing what's on the screen in real time based on that.
Rather than using a mouse, you use your eyes.
You look at something and there are cameras tracking your eyes
that can see what you're focusing on.
And then you just click to select it.
And to interact with objects, you can just sort of move your hands.
So there's a lot of potential, I think, in this interface.
They obviously haven't gotten it anywhere close to a product
that is affordable or interesting to the mass market.
On the AI side and for WWDC,
they're really in kind of an embarrassing position.
With Apple Intelligence,
which they unveiled at their Worldwide Developers Conference last year,
they announced some features, including a new version of Siri, that they were never able to get out.
So they marketed this heavily, Apple Intelligence, it was all on the billboards,
and they just actually weren't able to deliver on some of the main headline features like the new Siri.
For the features they did deliver,
like their image playground, I mean, you compare the output of Apple image playground to something like ChatGPT, image generation, or even Grok, and it's laughable. I mean, they shouldn't have even
released it. So they're in this really strange position where they have, you know, obviously an absolute behemoth of a business.
You know, Apple last year generated more net income than NVIDIA generated revenue.
So they've got this absolute behemoth of a business, but people are really looking at them and saying they don't know what they're doing as far as AI goes.
And this is really...
By the way, Omar, sorry to interrupt you.
It looks like Elon's back on CNBC Live again.
I don't know when that happened, but he's back right now.
Interesting.
Sorry to interrupt you.
But yeah, they're in a very sort of tough position right now with AI. They are a mag seven tech company that has no sort of
competence in this field. So it'll be interesting if they have any update on
the new Siri, on what their strategy is, to sort of fend off remarks that they
just don't know what they're doing and competitors like Google are building
much better AI features
into their operating system. By the way, Palo Alto also reported earnings to PanW. EPS, 80 cents,
being an expectation of 77, revenue 2.2929 billion slightly beating expectations as well stocks
moving lower maybe it's forward guidance just another that i'll i'll dig in a little bit more
but pen w earnings are out initial move is down about three three and a half percent
i also see stock talk there's some uh golden dome comments going around right now talking about
175 billion dollars total cost trump is alive. Three years.
Yeah.
Are you going to have stocks going higher off of this?
I'm looking for any info on who might be involved going through this stuff.
I'm walking Leah right now, so I'll be back inside in like a little bit.
So we started this with like a, you know, there was a lot happened today.
This was a really interesting day in the tech world.
This is the kind of days I like much more than some of the big news days we've had in the past where it's just random truth social headlines.
But I enjoy this one a little bit more.
Take two stock, though, moving lower.
Yeah, there's been a lot of analyst commentary in the last two days, too.
I think I tweeted out like 20 reports in the last two days.
I feel like yesterday morning, I know you put like 75 in and out at one time.
I was like, all right, I'm just going to skip through all this.
What I do is as I'm researching, as I'm reading, I like note them.
And then I'll like save a draft.
And then, you know, when 730 rolls around, I just post them all.
Elon Musk says there's no need for Tesla to buy Uber.
Well, yeah.
It's obvious.
Musk would like enough control at Tesla to not get ousted by activist investors.
I'm just reading what's kind of
popping up on the screen here.
I said that earlier, too.
That's probably where they're getting it from.
I know Sam's not here.
He cares about this name a lot.
Maybe some of you do as well.
In you, NewBank, their COO just stepped down.
Amazing.
I just exited my Latin American position.
It's fantastic.
Well, it's good timing for you, I guess,
because it's not a huge reaction here.
It's down about a percent and a half, two percent.
To be fair, I'd already exited Nubank,
but, I mean, it seems like it's going to do good long-term.
You know,
just quickly to one thing I'm
still having, the whole metaverse thing, which I
think became kind of a meme and stupid for a
while, and then we're going to come around, and
some variation of that, it won't be too
far off if it's actually going to happen.
It won't be quite as immersive in there.
Maybe augmented reality was a thing, but
I really do believe in these wearables.
I believe
way more in the glasses than
the other piece. I think the other piece, maybe
if you...
You have to stop thinking about it
like that. Those are technology demos.
That is, what can the technology at the max
do today? I'm just saying, saying i don't it'll be interesting i mean i could be wrong but i just don't see in
the near future that a bunch of people are going to be wearing the full-on vr headsets that is the
exact point you are right the whole point is that they they are not that is not what people are
going to be wearing the ray-ban glasses are what Right, right, and that's what I'm saying. If it's working. Whoever wins that
race is going to win the next race.
That's my claim.
Logical. We didn't really hear much from you around the rest of uh stock market today the
other pieces we were talking about of course if you had anything to add on the other pieces
I know you jumped in a couple times but uh what else uh what else is going on in your world what
did you see today yeah I've been actively trading this market the entire year. It's been exhausting, but I feel pretty good about my progress so far.
Overall portfolio performance is at 33% year to date.
I just posted my portfolio update.
I post it every few days.
You can kind of look through the quote tweet.
It's in my pinned tweet.
I just posted it.
And yeah, I mean, I frequently post what I own and you can go back as far as whenever, cause I'm very transparent about things that I own. And yeah, so today I was into today
with 142% long exposure. People will say like, you're ridiculous. It's true. I am. But you know,
when we got that intraday dump today, I felt like, okay, maybe not a great sign. I would like to have seen us continue to push higher.
So I took off about 30% exposure, which is specifically in names, like whatever the market
is working and aggressively, then I try to like take on more names that have good setups,
good fundamentals, good technicals.
But, you know, if I ever feel like maybe time for a pullback
or something like that, then the first things I'm going to cut are like the lower conviction
names and the trading positions. So yeah, I cut like 10 smaller positions basically today and got
my long exposure down to about 110% now. And yeah, what I would say that stood out to me very much so
was the XBI came in at 13.4 million volume. Average volume is 11.8. So it came in above
average volume today, plus 2.1% day for biotechs. I think we got some more commentary from like,
what's to be expected from MFN, most favored nation.
And it's not going to be the pharmas that end up eating it.
It's going to be more of other parts of the industry
that get kind of hurt by that a little bit more.
It was nice to see, you know,
10-year yield kind of fade throughout the day.
That 4.5 number, it just keeps tapping it.
And, you know, maybe we break above it, but, you know, it keeps being a place that gets faded.
And if rates come down, then there's going to be a lot of sectors that do well from that.
Again, my whole thesis for biotechs has been a slower economy.
And if we get a slower economy then you know we get potentially you
know rate cuts uh lower rates and you know the bios are going to be somewhere where there's
going to continue to be revenue growth the balance sheets are very healthy some of these stocks are
trading below cash on the balance sheet i keep saying it and obviously it's been a bumpy ride
so you know it's not like i've just been catching wins left and right. Uh, you have to be very selective about what you own. And that, that
part is a little tough, which is why I own, you know, over 10 names and just kind of split up
the exposure like a bio basket. Cause that's a little bit easier for me. Cause I'm not like a
PhD scientist or biologist. So, uh, you know, I just kind of do research and figure out what's what.
Anyways, so I like that. I have about 60% of my portfolio exposed to biotechs.
Many of these are commercial stage, some are clinical, late stage, have a ton of cash on the balance sheet, no debt. I mean, I think there could be a good amount of M&A in this space.
But I mean, I think there could be a good amount of M&A in this space.
So a lot of these could be acquisition targets.
And yeah, that's what I'm focused on.
You know, my portfolio, like while I do take on a lot of positions, I don't really replace
my high conviction core positions.
Those end up staying.
Like Magnite and Pubmatic continue to stay really high in my
allocations. You know, I might trim around those positions or add to them or whatever, but, you
know, I'm not letting up on those. And those make up, those two positions alone make up about 30%
of my portfolio. Magnite makes up almost 20%. It's like almost the largest position I've ever had in any company ever, especially in dollar amounts now that the portfolio has grown. Today, Magnite had
news where they have a partnership with Amazon for their CTV inventory. I mean, it's so freaking
bullish. And this isn't like, we're not even close to the points where, you know, we get remedies
from the Google antitrust ruling,
which would greatly increase the volumes that they're going to get through their platform.
So this business is just absolutely killing it, crushing it in every single way.
The fact that this stock was only up 4% or something on that news is laughable.
Yeah, this is a situation where, I don't know market i feel like market's giving
you a gift by um giving you more time and obviously the stock is up from you know the
lows of eight something nine something to now mid 16 so it definitely has moved you know it's
almost doubled off the lows but it should have never traded down there so yeah I think so to recap few few things one maybe
the market is short-term overbought and we're starting to see a losing of momentum hence why
I was quick to cut trading positions and overly long exposure to biotechs were a standout today from, you know, above average volume,
coming from very cheap valuations and up over 2% at the index level while the SPY was red,
and can do well even in a challenging macro environment, specifically economic slowdowns.
So that's broad comments. And then, you know, if you look at my portfolio that I just posted my update, you'll
see that, you know, I'm, I have a big chunk, basically like a majority of my portfolio
in those bios.
And I have, uh, another big chunk allocated to tech positions.
And again, I'm a small cap investor.
So, um, again, Pubmatic and Magnite fit into that. And then I also have a few other
names that I've mentioned on here. Um, like evolve, uh, which has just been an absolute
monster stock. That's EVLV, um, T gen tech o gen. Uh, that one's very volatile. Um,
but it's just been, uh, I think the, the future is very bright for that one's very volatile um but it's just been i think the the future is very bright for that one
so at amplitude if anyone you know is a trader on here go look up amplitudes chart go look at the
weekly look at whatever and go look at the volume that you've had over the last two months as this
stock has just been kind of creeping up especially into and after the
earnings uh today I saw the stock was down to like 1150 and I added to my position uh because
this thing is not really up all that much it was up it was up maybe at the lows of like eight nine
bucks as well uh and now it's up to about 12. you know a lot of names are up a lot but if you look
at that um if you look at that stock, AMPL,
it looks really good. So I added to that, I cut a few other positions,
because I am on margin. So I have to like really be selective with what I am long at this point.
And I have to just pick like the highest quality, most upside, like even names that I think have 30, 40, maybe even 50% upside. I'm just kind of like, eh, if it's going to,
if I feel like it might take six months for that value to be realized, even though that would
outweigh the cost of capital, I can't be like overly exposed or overly long. So I'm just highly
prioritizing names that I think have, that are extremely undervalued and have, you know,
a lot of momentum to the upside. Like, um, I talked about a small cap
bio last time, SCPH, uh, SC pharmaceuticals, a small pullback here today, but I mean, on its
earnings, it's up 50% over the last week. And that's the kind of upside that I'm talking about
that I'm willing to, you know, be long on margin because I think that some of these
bios are trading at such discount valuations that there's so much fear in this sector that
in all reality, they're probably underpriced by like 50 to 100 percent.
Just like that should immediately re-rate, in my view, if sentiment can improve in this
sector.
So and you're seeing that in specific names and I'm, I'm just focusing on, yeah, those names.
Um, like yesterday we had a insider buys at a company called Syndex Pharmaceuticals, SNDX.
That stock finished the highs of the day, uh, on 150% volume plus 14% on the day and all it takes is a lit a little bit of sentiment
inflection to the positive so anyways that's yeah I mean that's that's what I'm focusing on is like
names that have tremendous upside from a fundamental perspective, regardless of what happens in the macro backdrop.
And it was really encouraging to see that XBI held very strong and closed above the 50-day today.
So small baby steps.
Let's see where it goes.
But yeah, I'm just looking for really high value to the upside while I have margin of safety to the downside.
Yeah, appreciate those thoughts.
Logical, always good hearing your updates.
Kirk, you've been hanging out patiently up here.
Kirk, I'm excited to hear your thoughts,
but I do want to ask you just the big picture.
It seems like there's some rain clouds still around this market,
and I know you've talked about them several times.
You've talked about the cracks in this market.
We continue to float higher and remain resilient from a price standpoint.
But what are your thoughts around this market?
And especially bonds.
I'm really trying to pick everyone's brains a little bit on the 30-year sitting 30-year sitting up here creeped back up today.
It's really close to that 5%.
What's your general thoughts, and what are your thoughts around bonds too?
So I've been mainly studying the bond market and the banking sector in particular.
In fact, I've got a couple articles come out on banks and BDCs, actually.
The successive quantitative easings that we've gotten over the last 15 years, 16 years, have become less effective and bigger.
question that I'm trying to get an answer to is at what point do we just get to the point that
it's pure money printing and inflationary? And I think that we got a hint of that after COVID
because that inflation was a combination of supply chains being broken, but also just massive amounts of money creation. And we know, or we should know,
that the money creation since the financial crisis has been greater than the GDP it produced.
So we've borrowed more money than economic activity created, which is just a horrible equation.
That's like saying, hey, I'd like to borrow $2 from you.
Actually, it's been about $1.20 or $1.30 so that I can make $1.
You know, why would you ever borrow $1.30 to get $1 out of it, right?
And that's really what's been going on for well over a decade now.
on for well over a decade now. So I'm trying to figure out if this budget deal goes through
roughly as is proposed, and we add another $3, $4, $5 trillion in deficit spending on top of
the deficit spending we already have, on top of the debt that is already consuming 18% of the budget
for debt service, at what point does that become onerous? And I think we're pretty close to that
point. Back in 2006, I've told this story. I don't know if I've told it here. I was on a boat with a
real estate owner, a real estate agent who owned, I think it was 11 properties at the time
in 2006. He wanted to start selling them and he was having a hard time getting a price that was
above what he had borrowed. I think that we're getting close to something similar to the
financial crisis. I don't think it'll be as bad from the standpoint of impact on quality of life.
But I think the financial implications are pretty bad given what the valuations are across big swaths of the market and the vulnerability of the small cap companies that, you know, they supply half of the
jobs in America. So, you know, if the small companies run into financing problems because
things slow down and the cost of borrowing goes up or at least doesn't come down much,
up or at least doesn't come down much. I think that there's the potential for a pretty bad year
soon. And I think that there's the likelihood that the bailouts that come after that,
because we know that we'll get them, are very similar in nature to what happened during COVID,
which means huge money printing,
probably a spike in asset prices,
but then followed by inflation that pisses everybody off.
So that's kind of where I'm at.
I'm just trying to figure out the timeframe for that
because unless they flatten out the budget deficit,
deficit, which they don't seem to have any intention of doing.
which they don't seem to have any intention of doing,
I think that we have used up most of our cushion.
And this is the first time I've said that in my 30-year career.
I think that the cushion is almost gone.
I think that we are running into all the big expenses of the baby boomer retirement.
We still have a huge portion of the population that just never gets
ahead. And I don't know how we pay those bills. So I've started taking a look at the banks
because the last time this concerned me, and I wasn't concerned about debts back in 2006,
7, 8, when I warned about that, I was just concerned about the hot money
and the speculative pricing and the fact that a lot of people were buying houses they couldn't
afford. At this point, the banks look okay. The big banks look okay. They don't look good,
They don't look good, but they are asking to have smaller cushions so they can buy back shares and pay out dividends and pay the executives a lot of money.
And if you take a look at the charts of Citigroup and J.P. Morgan in particular and Bank of America and Wells Fargo and a little bit U.S. Bank and some of the others, State Street, Bank
Mellon.
You know, you take a look at what's going on out there.
And if you're a bank stock investor, and I don't think many people here are, but if you
are, you ought to be really careful because there's really no upside left.
I mean, you know, some trading upside here and there.
But, you know, from a valuation standpoint and there, but, you know, from a valuation
standpoint and cash flows and everything else, there's just very little, very little room for,
for upside. I think that's why Buffett basically sold off all of his banks, right? I mean,
there's just very little upside and an economic shock will hurt them badly. And all you have to
do is go take a look at the charts over the last 17, 18 years,
and you can see periods where they get beat up pretty substantially. And they never really beat
the S&P 500, so why bother owning them in the first place? But they are good things to look
at, in my opinion, to understand what's really underlying the economy. And I don't think that it's super strong. I think that it's
kind of iffy. I'm not hugely pessimistic because I still think that we just keep buying our way
out of things. But at some point, it becomes more expensive and the inflation. And then at what
point do you have a hard time overcoming the inflation and the social
impact of that i mean we've already got a populist movement that doesn't understand half of what's
going on but they're pissed off so you know if something else bad happens what happens with that
movement next i don't know i mean mean, historically speaking, it's never really
been particularly good. So, you know, I am concerned. I can't tell you what the timeframe
is. Is it three, four, five years from now that something really bad happens? Is it later this
year? I don't know. When it comes to stock valuations, though, I've used the word bifurcated a number of times.
I think there's kind of a bifurcated market.
You do have a lot of stocks that are fairly valued when it comes to historical measures.
The problem is that the growth that had been accelerating or steady through most of their history is now decelerating.
And changes in acceleration or deceleration are particularly impactful at some point when it comes to valuation re-ratings.
So I think that there's a lot of stocks out there that are overvalued 20%, 30% pretty easy.
Others that are overvalued by double or in some cases,
which would mean that they have to come down 50% in price.
I take a look at the large cap, your MAG-7 stocks,
and it's pretty easy to see all of them coming down 20% or 30% in price.
That would drive the indexes down, right, the market cap weighting.
And I think that the bonds, the financing, the banking system,
the GDP growth, the deceleration of growth, the impact of debt service,
those things are all starting to pile up again like
I haven't seen since right before the financial crisis.
Again, picking out a time frame is tough.
If you're a short-term trader, you can keep trading it because you know that tomorrow
you're willing to get out.
If you're more of a position trader like me, you start hedging your
bets. So I own some July SPI puts and I own some KRE, Regional Bank puts, as hedges against my long
positions. I mean, I still love AST Space Mobile. To me, that's one of the easiest ones out there.
Rocket Lab, I lightened up a little bit on yesterday. Not much. It's a full position still, but it had been a double position.
And then I have some of my catalyst-driven energy stocks because I think that natural
gas has to go up in price.
That is particularly true if oil drilling flattens out.
Most of the, over half of our gas is affiliated with oil drilling so if oil drilling
flattens out and gas demand still goes up that means we have to get more gas supply that's good
for the lng companies that's good for the producers and if you can find companies that are undervalued
because they're associated with oil but really they have big gas upside, you can make some money there.
So I like Caterra. I think Caterra is one where they get judged like an oil company,
but really their gas operations are pretty important. They're in the Delaware Basin
in Texas, Permian Resources, Matador Resources, Devin, Diamondback, you know, there's a few of the Delaware Basin, right?
So the Permian is two pieces, Midland and Delaware.
You want the Delaware side.
That's the gas-rich side.
That had never been true, right?
We always wanted the oil side.
So that was always Midland, a whole TV show about the Midland, right?
Midland, right? Landman. Delaware is where the money's at now. That's where the gas will add
Landman.
Delaware is where the money's at now.
to marginal earnings, and that'll be very good for them. So if demand for energy keeps going up
because of AI and some electrification of cars and really everything else. Then I think natural gas has a pretty long runway.
I like solar better in the long term, but in the short term, I'm not so sure that's true.
So that's kind of my 30,000 foot view. I worry about the debt for the first time ever. I'm worried about it.
Picking a time frame for when it could go south is tough.
I think it probably comes in two steps.
I think we probably get a double dip.
So I think we probably get one kick in the junk soon,
and then they probably bail it out, but they don't improve the system.
And then we get a bigger kick in the junk four, five, six years out.
The debt that we owe the baby boomers at this point is pretty substantial.
They put in the Medicare and Social Security for a long time.
They probably underpaid a little bit.
But, you know, the reality is that those systems were allowed to be broken because it's not the Fed that screwed everything up.
I wish people would listen to me when I say this.
Congress has sucked since the 1980s, at least.
And they have allowed all these problems to develop.
And you can look at the current Congress and you can be Democrat or develop and you can look at the current Congress
and you can be Democrat or Republican
and you can yell at both of them.
They just keep breaking things
and it's just a matter of which things they break
depending on which party's in there
and we're all going to have to pay for it.
So understand that the way inflation gets used in a debt-driven system is very
important to how you manage your investments.
Kirk, can I ask you a follow-up?
Sure. Let me have a glass of water first.
No problem.
Come on.
So, you know, re-bonds and banking.
Do any of the banks' current bond exposures cause a reason for you to look that way?
Like, for example, Bank of America's got a bunch.
I think they've got like $500 billion that are just paper losses,
and then I think some of them mature next year for the other five years.
So is any of that, like are you taking any of that into calculus?
Yeah, so I don't think that that puts any of them at risk of a collapse. I think where the huge risk is, is in private credit.
And for the last five years, that's really flowed to the BDCs and the private equity companies.
So I think that there's actually a lot more risk there than in the banks. The banks have,
you know, kind of been insulating themselves
since COVID, right?
They have largely reduced their exposure
to the treasury market.
Scott Bissett wants them back in there.
Well, they're saying if you want us back in there,
then you have to lower the capital requirements
or at least not count government bonds,
make sure that those are never marked to market.
So I don't worry too much about the big banks. The regional banks, I'm short, though. So I think
that the commercial real estate exposure to the regional banks, not all of them, obviously, but
a big enough hunk of them, you know, they they're what, 60-something percent of all the commercial
real estate loans? They have a big piece of that market, and they're just stretching, right? They're
extending pretend, and they've been doing it for a couple of years. So I think that the regional
banks, I think we're going to get another SVB or another sovereign or another First Republic or two or three or four of them before too long.
I would think this year or next year.
And the big banks, your J.P. Morgan of the world, Citigroup, less so Citigroup, but they're not managed as well as J.P. Morgan or Bank of America.
Or even Wells Fargo at this point is pretty good. Or U.S. Bank.
U.S. Bank is just a gigantic regional and they're in pretty good shape too. They've always been
managed well. So I don't worry about the big banks going down, but the regionals, yeah. some of the ones in Florida, some of the ones in other places, I think, you know, in slower economic areas or areas that have a lot of disruption in their energy system or economy, they could have some problems, right?
So that's where I'm seeing the cracks is in the BDCs.
I'm writing an article about that now.
Some of the private equity firms, which I love long-term,
but they're hugely economically sensitive.
And the regional banks.
You know, I'm long flag star, but I'm short the basket.
So, you know, that's my version of a pair trade.
Kirk, what are your thoughts around gold?
I have been long gold a long time, really since about 2000, when it was down around 300 an ounce.
And I've always just had a small position, and I traded it. I wrote articles in 2018 and 2020 about a big gold market, bull market developing. I think gold was $1,100 or $1,200 the first time and $1,600
$1,600 the second time. And I said it was going to go to $3,000.
I suggested that it would happen by 2024.
And I think that's exactly when we hit it. Did it just happen
at the start of this year or did we get there at the end of last year? Either way, pretty close.
I think that it's going to be choppy for a while, but because I cannot figure out a way, and I mean, I hope I'm wrong, but I can't figure out a way that we don't have
at least, and I've said this before on this show, at least $15 trillion in QE by the end of the decade.
And again, I think it probably comes in two pieces.
But, you know, what does that do for gold?
I think gold is for sure going to $4,000, probably going to $5,000 in the next five, six years.
If you're looking for a store of, you know, a store of value, you know, a way to preserve your wealth, gold is a pretty good place to do that.
I don't trade it a lot because I think the stocks, because of the volatility or just, you know, you guys know this, stocks are just better to trade, right?
But I do go on, you know, we have dates, My fiance and I have been doing it a long time now.
You know, we go to estate sales or rummage sales or, you know, when we're somewhere and we think we can get a deal.
I buy gold all the time. I buy physical gold.
I buy gold jewelry. I got little gold bars.
Find a cool gold coin or a set.
I think that that stuff is super cool.
And I think it always has its value.
And then you get extra value. Right. The thing that nobody counts is just,, and I think it always has its value, and then you get extra value, right?
The thing that nobody counts is just, oh, gold is worth this much.
Yeah, but the coin or the bar or the jewelry carries additional value.
So I like physical gold.
I like doing it that way because I think there's better things to trade in my financial accounts.
You know, I would just assume, you know, honestly, I think you can make a living trading Tesla.
I mean, you don't even have to be bullish or bearish on Tesla.
You can just trade it and it's just a fantastic trading stock.
You know, I was long for six, seven years of Tesla and I've mostly been a short on Tesla since the end of 2021.
years of Tesla, and I've mostly been a short on Tesla since the end of 2021. If it ever gets down
to below $500 billion again, I'll probably be a bull again, right? Just because the inflation
is going to drive things. And between Waymo and RoboTaxi and robots and AI. Some of these big tech companies, I don't know how you defeat them.
I don't think justice can beat them.
I don't think the European Union can beat them.
I don't know how you can beat these companies when they're so integrated into our lives
and they are leading all the improvements in standard of living.
I mean, people can feel poor all they want,
but, you know, I was a poor kid.
And a poor kid in the 80s, you know, compared to a poor kid today,
there's no contest.
The poor kid today is way richer, you know,
still walking around with a cell phone.
So, you know, I have some feelings about these big tech companies.
And one of the things that you should always realize as an investor, in my opinion, is that things that have done well in the last cycle typically do well in the next cycle.
Right?
So if there's a correction, you know, think about it like being on the playground.
Hey, I want to redo.
Well, if we get a 20% or 30% market correction here again, and I think we will.
I think this is going to be an ABC correction probably, and it could be worse.
But I do think we'll set new lows probably this year.
And that's just a chance to go out and buy some of these stocks again.
Meta, I owned Meta at $20-something a share after the IPO crash, and I sold it at $100.
I feel dumb.
All right, what has it gone to at $100,000. I feel dumb.
All right, and what has it gone to, $17,000 or something?
You know, so I think that you can get a redo.
And I think you guys were right talking about the meta technology, those glasses.
You know, what were those first ones called from Google?
Were they called Google Glass or something?
Yeah, Google Glass.
Yeah, I mean, those were actually pretty cool, but the new ones that Meta has, I mean, they really, I've tried
them. They're pretty spectacular. And, you know, once those get to be affordable for everybody,
and I did not know that you could put prescription lenses in there, I think that those will be a big
deal. I don't think cell phones go away, though.
I think people like to have something in their hands.
I just think the nature of the interaction changes.
Like, I've got an Apple Watch.
I use it for, like, three things.
I hate the little screen.
I don't like wearing a watch to begin with.
But it tells me if I'm having a heart attack, you know?
So that's kind of important.
And it counts my steps, which is, I don't know what that does for me.
But, you know, at least I know that I didn't walk enough.
So I think that the nature of electronics changes.
I don't see the convergence happening in our lifetime.
But, you know, we're on the baby steps towards it, you know, with Neuralink and everything else.
So, you know, it's interesting
stuff, but those big companies are going to be the leaders. You're not going to have some teeny
tiny company, more likely than not. I mean, if you find one, then you'll be super rich, but it's
going to be the big companies just keep coming out with stuff, right? They got the money and the talent to do it.
So unless some guy in a lab in a college figures out how to make nanobots dance,
put them on a chip and put them in your glasses or something,
yeah, it's a big company that'll figure it out.
And I think Meta, I think Google.
I mean, my favorite three are three cloud companies, Amazon, Microsoft, and Google.
But Meta is much of a, I don't know what to think about Zuckerberg.
I can't figure out if I'd have a beer with him or not.
But I admire that he's tried to change himself.
So I like that.
And I do think he's been a good CEO.
I think he's been predatory,
but I think he's been a good CEO.
And I just don't see how you beat these companies
that just have monstrous piles of cash.
Of the 10 biggest companies on QQQ,
they have something like 26% of all the cash on all corporate balance sheets.
That's massive.
So if we get a chance to buy those companies cheap,
I say you should really buy them cheap because they're a big deal.
And some of the other companies that I really like, you know, I'm kind of a strategic investor.
I try to do it at the business level here in Milwaukee.
I think that Taiwan Semiconductor and Intel, they're dating right now.
I think they get married eventually, but I think they end up with two houses, maybe three
houses.
And, and I think that Taiwan Semiconductor and Intel are worth watching.
I think Kathy Woods is out of her mind buying now.
Um, I, I, I don't think that they respect valuations or growth rates.
I just think that they come up with these pie-in-the-sky numbers.
I really have been totally unimpressed with ARK.
And I love the theme that they put out there,
but I just don't feel like many of them know how to do math.
and I think that shows in their performance.
And I think that shows in their performance.
So I like Taiwan Semiconductor,
but bad things are probably going to happen in Taiwan
and that'll probably be your opportunity to buy them cheap.
So that's kind of what I'm looking at.
If a market dislocation comes in here, we can get them cheaper.
Maybe I missed the first one.
I'll get the second one.
But redos in investing, I think they're underappreciated
because I think most people just want to try to be smarter than the market.
And I think one of the lessons I've learned in
30 years of doing this is I don't always have to get it right the first time. The market will
generally give me two or three chances. And I think that folks in this macro environment
should be willing to say, I don't have to chase. I can, you know, and I know that some people are
trying to get rich right now.
Yeah, it's not always about preserving wealth, but I do think that you're going to get a redo.
So make your list as good as you can make it. I don't think you have to have that many new ideas
every year. I mean, I maybe have a dozen every year. That's about it. And I think that's fine
because there's a lot of good old ideas that
when the price comes to you, you should be able to jump on them
if you have the emotional stability to do
it and you're not too proud of yourself.
Just real quick, Google today announced their version of the glasses
called Aura as well.
I don't think we mentioned that when we were talking earlier.
Cool.
And then the opportunity thing, I just want to echo it.
You don't have to feel like you got to rush out and do stuff, especially in this environment.
Some of people's favorite stocks at the beginning of the year, Hems, for example, $25, went to $70-something in a straight line basically in a month and a half.
Sold back off $25.
Here we are another month and a half later,
pushing back up against 60.
So it's like, that's one Palantir,
120 to 60 some halved hood,
same thing across the board.
So, you know, I just wanted to echo that,
especially in this environment.
You know, for me, I've talked about it before.
I've had a lot of things that kind of, look back and i go damn okay uh one of them for me was i had like a fifty thousand
dollar position and chipotle back in like oh 708 i don't remember when i ended up selling it for a
loss you can go look the chart i think i think if I'd just done nothing, hypothetically, right,
it would have been worth $3 million or something like that.
But along the way, there were a lot of entries.
I just never got in.
That's just a thing.
And then everybody's favorite thing, every other person's favorite thing,
Bitcoin, for example.
People look at Bitcoin and they go $100, go 100 to 100,000 or whatever it is
Bitcoin I think has had
5 or 6
drawdowns of 70% or more
so like you know
across the way you're going to get these opportunities
I think
there's an
interview with Bezos
where he's talking about during the dot-com bust, how their stock price was going down on a day-to-day, quarter-to-quarter, month-to-month basis, whatever.
But the internals of the business were going up in all of their reports.
I think that's kind of the stuff that we're going to possibly see in the next 18 months.
And then that's where
you can put your investor
hat on and grind
through the tape, for lack of a better word,
and find your winners.
Yeah. I have a question
for you. So every time you
have a burrito, do you think about Chipotle?
Not anymore. There's
a couple of them honestly
that one though that one because i was like that was like the first like real position
that i put on i was like a lot younger but i put on like a first real thing and then i didn't
realize like just how quick things turn and you know i i don't i wasn't like uh i was not nearly as seasoned as i am
now there's other ones there's like i think uh back from that same time period i think i had
mastercard like you know 180 i think is the number that i remember pre pre pre pre pre split
um but then same thing i i also was fortunate to invest in tesla at 37 pre pre pre pre pre split
and then in that 2017 2019 somewhere around there that time frame where it went sideways and they
were just uh giving you crappy number after crappy number and elon's worth was tied to being called potentially
there was a moment in fall of 19 where just just just ahead of their mass market vehicle
where i put out a really crappy quarter and it didn't sell off and it was kind of like this one
that we just had uh but fortunately for them the the next couple of quarters, and for me,
to be honest, the next couple of quarters, they were showing consistent signs of uptick in their
earnings and their growth and all that stuff. So I think right now is very similar. So I agree with
you. Very similar where you're going to have these these run ups and if they don't meet it, then the opposite could happen.
So you just got to be cognizant of that.
And then your burrito, just to be succinct about it.
I haven't I haven't craved one of their burritos since the since their E.
Coli scare when Ackman got involved post-Valiant.
Yeah.
I don't eat fast food very much anymore,
so I don't know the last time I've been there.
You know, one of the things, just to throw this out there,
is, you know, I got on MarketWatch and, you know, now Seeking Alpha, but really MarketWatch found me.
So I am a pretty good macro analyst.
And I put a lot of time and education into that for a very long time.
And I'll tell you, as an investor, macro analysis is truly not that important on a day-to-day basis.
From what I can tell after 30 years of doing this, I think that it's overrated.
I think that understanding debt cycles the way that Ray Dalio talks about it, or Jamie
Diamond even, is probably the thing that people ought to focus on is do we have the capacity to pay the
bills? And if we have the capacity to pay the bills, then things work out. And volatility
is just volatility. Use it to your advantage. Have your short list of 20 or 30 ideas total
that you really want.
Take a look at relative performance over the last two, three, five years.
That'll give you a very good clue as to what you should be investing in.
Remember, turnarounds rarely turn.
And while small caps are where you'll find your biggest winners,
you better know those companies inside and out so that you understand what the risk is and what to look for if something's going to go wrong.
Because sometimes it does. And I am probably more of a mid-cap investor now than I am a small cap investor because that's kind of the
sweet spot where you still can have five, ten times upside. You know, small caps you can find
50 times upside or 100 times upside, but how many of those companies go to zero or go sideways for
10 years? The mid-caps, I would really advise people to look at the mid caps
you know Palantir
when I first bought it was a mid cap
you know now it's a mega cap
I mean look how much that grew in
the three years now
and look at
like you said look at how much the
price changed is Palantir
fundamentally worth
a different amount today than it was a year ago by swings of 50%?
I mean, I'm sure it's several percent difference, but, you know, if we've seen prices of $120 and $60 in the past year, does that mean that the company was fundamentally worth different amounts?
No, it's just the market moves that fast on emotions.
And one of the things that I would warn people about right now,
and I think this is as bad as I saw it in 1999 and 2006,
retail investors are just pouring in.
And now they're using options and margin.
If you take a look at those numbers
and you take a look at history,
when retail investors are the ones pushing the market up
and they're really the ones driving all the marginal price changes,
that usually
doesn't last very long.
Why?
Because they have thinner wallets than the big guys.
So while the retail investor controls like 20% of the market now versus 10% pre-COVID,
it's still only 20%.
It's still only 20%.
The big guys, from what I can tell, and in particular,
if some of these numbers that came out recently are right,
the international investors who are generally sophisticated,
remember, they're investing overseas.
They're pretty sophisticated in most cases.
There's a lot of people selling to the retail crowd right now.
You should be concerned about that.
Yeah, to me, it's the delta.
It's like the change in investing for retail
versus the change in investing for professionals.
Not just the raw number.
Palantir is a really good example, by the way.
Palantir is one that I bought at 11 the first time,
and it went to like the 30s.
I unloaded it.
I originally wanted it as like a long-term,
but it got there really quickly.
And it was like right as the Cathie Wood,
Cathie Wood and your ETF bought it.
I unloaded it.
And then I was able to buy it back at my price
that I originally bought it for.
So you're going to get these opportunities.
The other thing I wanted to just mention real quickly
regarding the retail thing
is that retail shift
or not the retail, the mid-cap thing.
That mid-cap trade is like where I think you can make the most amount of money
for your bread and butter as there's like,
as it starts to go through its growth adoption phase,
like as those companies start to go through the growth adoption phase,
you know, on their S-curve or whatever.
So take a look at like HIMSS, for example, as they started to ramp.
Take a look at like Robinhood, for example, et cetera.
Tesla, you can go through the list.
So like those are, in my opinion, once they kind of graduate from that small cap to mid cap,
if they've got a story behind them, especially,
Kirk, you know, that's like the difference
between a company and a stock is a story.
So if they've got a story, and even better,
if they've got a cult,
that's when you can really kind of lever into it,
in my opinion.
That's my favorite.
That's why I'm hoping the cult of AST Space Mobile
grows and grows and grows.
I mean, I bought that one in the $3, $4 range, and I think it's going to be a $100 billion company on the FOMO.
I don't know if it deserves to be a $100 billion company, but I think it's going to get there.
Maybe it should only be a $30 to $50 billion company, you know, after they have all
the satellites up. But Tesla, you know, even though I've been more short than long the last
few years, I don't discount that they're a big company that's going to do well. I just,
you know, again, it becomes a trading stock. So, you know, if I wanted to own Tesla forever,
and I don't think that I do,
I just feel like I've made my money in that one.
I don't think it's going to be a double or a triple from here.
But, you know, if it drops 50%, I would, right?
It's just like Palantir.
I bought Palantir single digits, upper single digits, like eight or nine.
We bought it almost right at the bottom.
That's the cult you need behind ASTS.
That Palantir cult is strong.
Yeah, yeah.
And in markets, right, it used to be that the baby boomers drove everything.
Now it's the millennials and to a lesser extent the Gen Z, right?
But the millennials, right, you're entering peak earning years.
You understand technology better.
Frankly, I think you've been better students of the markets.
I don't even know if you're a millennial or not, but I think the millennials in general.
I do feel a little attached here.
He's a boomer, sir.
Well, okay, yeah.
Well, Kirk just said I'm at my peak earnings, so I don't know.
It's all over after this.
But that's who, right, demographics are destiny.
And so if the millennials understand technology and they're skeptical of the monetary system,
so they gravitate to Bitcoin, and they're the ones making the most money at this point,
and they're the biggest generation, we all have to respect that.
And I wrote that article three, four years ago.
You got to start respecting the millennials.
And this was at a time when every boomer out there was, you know,
complaining about somebody living in somebody's basement, right? I just think the millennials have
had a unique historical experience. 9-11 when they were teenagers or in college.
Again, the financial crisis as they're trying to get into the workforce, starting families 5, 10, 15 years later,
and now they're 40-ish, and they're starting to make some money,
and as boomers retire, they're moving up,
and maybe they're 10 years ahead suddenly on promotions and income versus me as an exer.
It took me a long time.
I didn't make six figures until I was 37, I think. So, you know, it, it,
it, it's just, you got to respect what's out there. And one of the things that I try to tell
people on Seeking Alpha, and they don't listen to me, they always get angry because there's a big
boomer crowd there, but it's, it's shifting. You know, I think Seeking Alpha is a great place
actually because of the tools.
For a couple hundred bucks a year, you get a lot.
But the analysts around there, 80% of them are shit, but 20% of them are pretty good.
So it's a good crowdsourcing tool.
But those boomers around there, I try to tell them, hey, a lot of those stocks that they like are going to be in net redemption forever now.
Right?
Because they are primarily held by the boomers.
And the boomers are just chronically going to be selling now forever.
So what does that mean for those stocks?
Well, if the millennials don't buy them, then the mean-sitter is going to go down perpetually. And I think there's 200 or 300 stocks on the S&P 500 that are eventually just going to be kicked off the S&P 500 and replaced.
in the mid-cap space, the S&P, was that 400 or 600?
The 400, right?
S&P 400 mid-cap.
Is it 600 or 400?
I always get them mixed up.
But go back to those S&P mid-cap stocks.
I think that that is a sweet spot.
And the tech companies and some of the companies that are blockchain
and some of the biotechs, I like some of the biotechs.
You know, you start looking at those and you're like, wow, I can invest like a private equity investor here and triple or quadruple or quintuple my money every four, five, six, seven years.
I mean, that's a pretty good deal.
And I understand the whole
small cap thing. I mean, I made my first million bucks basically on exact sciences. And I bought
them when they were nothing. They were a buck 65 when I first bought them. And I wrote it up,
you know, the 30, sold it, bought it back between 20 and five, wrote it up to 70. And
I get that people want to get rich and they're trying to do it with investing.
In small caps, you have the most grand slams.
But there's a lot of home runs in the mid caps.
So it might not be the grand slam or the three-run bomb that you get from a smaller micro cap. But the shrinkage of the risk, right?
The reduction in risk at the mid-cap level,
I think that pays off for most people.
Kirk, don't set me up for a Starfighter's ad read here.
I thought you were going to take that softball toss, Evan.
I throw him out there.
I'm a baseball guy.
I'm just waiting for you to hit him back.
Evan's just standing in the box,
watching him go right down the middle right now.
Evan, there were several interesting comments
while ago from Elon.
Did you catch any of those?
Want to shout them out?
The 1 million, he said that they need 1 million NVIDIA GPUs for this next,
or they're getting that for the XAI factory that they're building right now.
I mean, is demand slowing for these NVIDIA GPUs?
I don't know.
Our initial move I saw was up like a little bit in After Hours.
You mentioned AMD in there as well.
Back then, he did.
AMD got a nice little pop the other
interesting thing did you see the the Tesla XAI comment the merger that yeah
what was it what was it exactly yeah it was around a possible merger there and
he said he would definitely be interested or something like that I
can't remember the stock talks probably got the exact quote but I obviously take
shareholder approval.
He said merging the two companies is not out of the question, but we would obviously require shareholder approval.
That's what he said.
So when he came back on CNBC after he was on the Faber interview, and then he went to do a Tesla meeting, and then he came back on CNBC, and that was at the end of his comments.
So Stock Talk, does that – would that inherently – and do you think people will look at that as a, or is this priced in? I hate that because it's an overused term, but if XAI is going to be in Tesla, if you're a Tesla shareholder and you're essentially going to get that exposure, I mean, some people I think are already investing in Tesla because they want exposure to, to, uh,
to XAI and everything that Elon does.
Right.
But would that create more value?
Is that,
does that make sense?
Yeah.
I think the valuations of both companies would go up.
Look,
I think a lot of times people overcomplicate,
both stocks and technology.
I mean, both of those things, I think, get very, very overcomplicated on Twitter.
They're both quite simple.
Stocks are a vehicle for exposure and technology literally always wins.
Yep.
Those two things have been historical truths for like, I don't know, the better part of 50 years.
At least the modern stock market.
I mean, if you study the market over the last five decades, I mean, you could go further back from that, but I mean, I don't know how much
relevancy there is. There are bubbles. Bubbles happen and bubbles pop and valuations go to crazy
levels and then they come back down. So my point isn't to say valuation doesn't matter.
It does matter. Right. Valuation comes to call when liquidity tightens. Right. When financial
conditions worsen, liquidity tightens. That's when the rubber meets the road. And that's when
stocks that are too expensive get sold hand over fist and, quote unquote, bubbles pop.
We know that mechanism to be true.
I don't think anyone disputes that that mechanism happens every five to seven years.
And, you know, it serves a purpose as to removing froth from the system.
But, and this is a big but, even if you look at the last five, six market crashes,
and you look at the market over the duration of all of those crashes in
other words if you go back 30 40 years and look at the market over that period of time through
all the market crashes through all the froth removals through all the recessions through all
the you know other exogenous events there are a lot of stocks that today still trade at massive market
premiums even after having their bubbles popped over and over again whatever the liquidity returns
to the system their valuations reinflate okay there's numerous examples of stocks like that
tesla being one of them in recent history,
where, yes, it goes on these massive cutdowns in valuation,
30%, 40% drops in a matter of months,
and then goes on these huge, you know,
multi-hundred percent at times rebounds to the upside,
where if you time them well, like Kirk said earlier,
you can make a killing as a trader just trading that one stock.
But what people a
lot of times overlook is this idea of shareholder bases from stock to stock, having fundamentally
different expectations and having fundamentally different reasons to bid the stock. If you look
at the shareholder base of Sherwin-Williams, it's a very different investor.
Wow. I'm sorry to interrupt you.
I wouldn't know for this story normally, but Wolf Financial has just declared bankruptcy.
By that, I mean ticker Wolf is going to try and declare bankruptcy, not Wolf Financial.
But sorry. Big times.
Sorry. Big times.
But yeah, if you're a Sherwin-Williams shareholder,
you're probably a fundamentally different investor
and probably a fundamentally different person, frankly,
than a Tesla investor, for example.
You care about things like earnings growth
and market share and revenue growth or at least revenue stability.
And you care about things like dilution and you care about things that traditional investors
care about. There are shareholder bases today with a handful of stocks. I think some of them
were mentioned earlier. Tesla is one of them. Palantir is one of them. There's a lot of cult stocks out there today.
You look at the shareholder basis of companies like Tesla and Palantir, and you ask yourself, are those shareholders concerned about the same things?
And I think the short answer to that question is absolutely not.
And I think the short answer to the question is absolutely not.
And, you know, the reason this entire splurge I just made is relevant to the point you made,
which is that I am in favor of XAI and Tesla merging.
I do think it would boost the valuations of most companies.
And what traditional investors would say is that, well, it will be diluted for Tesla shareholders.
And my short retort to that is the Tesla shareholders don't care.
The same way they didn't care about what has been a very, very poor core business for the
better part of the past 12 months, they're still willing to bid the stock up post earnings
and still willing to hold it up, not at all time highs, but hold it up a lot better than
anyone expected, frankly,
from a fundamental basis.
And that's because they're not bidding the stock for the same reasons that shareholders
in a lot of these other companies are bidding the stock.
They're fundamentally different shareholder basis.
And that matters.
It matters in the way the stock behaves.
It matters in your ability to short the stock when you think it should.
The funny thing is about Tesla, there have been great opportunities to short Tesla over the course
of the last five years, even though it's up a thousand percent or whatever in the last five
years. There have been great opportunities to short it. The thing is, a lot of the Tesla shorts
miss those opportunities because they try to short the hole. They try to short it when the
fundamental picture looks really bad, when a bad quarter comes out.
But that's not the way the stock behaves.
The stock trades off narrative.
Most of the big declines in Tesla that you've seen have actually not been because of deteriorating fundamentals, but have either been because of some sort of narrative problem.
narrative problem, right? Whether that's Elon stepping away, whether that's the Twitter
purchase that happened when Elon had to sell Tesla stock, whether that's the Elon's efforts
at Doge, whether that's things that impact the narrative, that's what leads to these 30, 44%
declines in the stock. It's not like, oh, EPS is going down, so I'm going to sell the stock.
This is not the way the shareholder base thinks. So I think when you want to trade a stock or own
a stock for the long term, understanding the people that are in it with you is important.
Understanding the psychology of the shareholder base is a very underrated part of equity analysis,
in my view. And to extend that point, you will see a lot of people that will make the argument that this is not a good merger because of the dilution point.
And you will see a lot of Tesla bulls who literally say, we don't care.
It gives us more exposure to the theme.
You know, the way this is manifested a lot of times in markets is I don't know if anyone's ever seen like a low float squeeze, right? Where some stock either
IPOs, or it's a D SPAC, or it's just naturally a low float IPO, there's five or six different
scenarios, but you end up with a stock basically that has sub 10 million shares. Okay. And
some piece of good news comes out, either that or the stock is in some way relevant to a hot theme.
And in days, it goes up three, four hundred percent on equity.
People have seen this in the last five years. Everyone's seen this in some way, shape or form with some sort of stock, some sort of low float stock.
And the reason that happens, it's pretty simple,
right? You don't need to be rocket science to figure that out. A stock with low float is much
more susceptible to squeeze because there's less shares available, period, end of story.
That should make perfect sense to everyone, even if you have no idea what the stock market,
how the stock market works, right? There's not that many shares available. And so you create
a demand impetus, whether that's a piece of news
or a thematic relevancy, and the stock goes crazy, way higher than anyone thinks it can go.
It goes to a valuation that's probably not sustainable. And people scratch their heads,
like, how did that happen? It doesn't make fundamental sense. Well, it happens because there's a shortage of exposure, right? And another great example of this is what's happened in the
last year and a half with names like DOMH and DOMH and names like SSSS and these names that
have exposure, right? Publicly traded funds that have exposure to private companies. Okay.
Anyone can go make an account online in one of these private share brokers and buy shares in
these companies. Okay. But that's inconvenient, right? The same way anyone can go buy Bitcoin,
but there's still people that choose to go buy
bitcoin etfs because oh it's on my brokerage you know this or maybe they don't have crypto
permissions or whatever they're fun they don't have approvals cool i'll just go buy the etf and
get exposure right again the key thematic of everything i'm talking about right now is exposure
you look at these publicly public funds people can go get much better one to one exposure to
Anduril, for example, by going and buying Anduril shares on these highly liquid private
markets for companies like Anduril and SpaceX, the private markets are very liquid on these
platforms.
So if you really wanted exposure, you could go get it.
But instead, what people do is they buy these public companies that have one or two percent
exposure to the company just to get
exposure right on a percentage basis they have they have what like they're throwing their money
away on a percentage basis they'd be much much much better off by going and buying the shares
directly but still people don't do that still these stocks go on three four five hundred percent runs
why because people just want exposure to a thematic or a company,
and they will pay for it.
And when that exposure is limited,
that's when valuation premiums get created.
When there's not enough, right?
Another great example of this is pure play stocks, okay?
Like what pure play means, people that don't know that,
it means the stock is 100% exposed to something.
Okay?
100% of their business is in something,
whether it's cars or autonomy or whatever.
Pure play stocks generally trade at premiums.
Why?
Because people want exposure to the theme.
And there's only so many pure play stocks.
Right? You look at like legacy defense contractors.
Go look at their performance versus mid cap defense contractors this year.
Why? Because the mid cap defense contractors have much more pure play exposure to the new hot and sexy defense thematics than the big guys do.
This theme goes on and on. I can give you another 30
examples. I just gave you five examples in different categories of this idea of limited
exposure driving valuation premium. This will remain true forever. This isn't a new thing.
You know, there's only so many shares of every company. And if a lot of people want to own the company for a lot of very compelling reasons, that stock is very likely to trade at a huge market premium.
And it's just a matter of supply and demand, really, at the end of the day.
If you really want to distill it all down, and this goes for the people who scratch their heads, like, why is Tesla trading where it's trading?
Why is Palantir where it's trading?
The answer is exposure.
The answer is people want exposure to these things, and they can't, there aren't enough ways to get it.
There aren't enough easy, convenient ways to get it.
Like, if you want exposure to Elon Musk today, if you're somebody who's like, you know what, I don't know what's going to happen, but I think Elon's going to win and I want exposure to Elon Musk.
What is the easiest way to do that?
It's just to buy Tesla stock.
That's why Tesla trades at a huge premium and probably will for the foreseeable future until Elon steps away, if he does.
And that's the same reason SpaceX
trades at an enormous premium
to the actual core business.
SpaceX is worth, what, like $400 billion now?
$350, $400 billion?
Right, with their only real revenue-generating business
being Starlink, which is worth nowhere near that much.
Why does it trade at a $400 billion valuation?
Because you get exposure to Elon, right?
Why does Palantir trade at this insane valuation? Because they're a black box government contractor that has exposure
in these new age defense categories that like the legacy guys don't. And so is Palantir worth what
they're worth today on a fundamental basis? Probably not. But to their investors, they are.
Their investors are willing to pay the price the same way that the Tesla investors are willing to pay the price because they're not buying the stock for the P ratio or for the dilution that might happen from an XAI acquisition or from, you know, back to back quarterly declines in EPS, they don't care. They literally don't care.
I think if you ask the average Tesla shareholder, hey, are you really concerned about margins coming down? I think they would literally say, no, I don't give a shit at all.
I think the average Tesla shareholder would say that. That's telling to you, right? I think if
you ask the average JP Morgan shareholder, do you care about their earnings per share on a quarter
by quarter basis?
They'd probably say, yeah, I do.
Or if you ask again, Sherwin-Williams or any of these like legacy stocks, you ask the shareholder
base, hey, why are you in the stock?
They're going to give you some sort of fundamental answer.
Oh, I think it's trading at a good valuation.
I think, you know, it's forward earnings growth is compelling.
I think, you know, it's GARP or growth at a reasonable price.
I think, you know, the stock's too cheap.
It should return back to, you know, trading at 10 times earnings or what, like any of
those answers are fundamental answers.
They're fundamental justifications for owning a stock.
If you ask a Tesla or a Palantir shareholder, they're not going to give you that answer.
Right.
They're going to tell you something about the future of the company or the potential of the companies, why they own the stock.
You can't put an objective price on that.
That's speculation.
Right.
And yeah, in a market correction, those shareholders will pay the price.
Shareholders will pay the price.
But if you've been through market corrections before, if you've been through cycles before and seen the market go down 30, 40 percent before, and you've seen what that can do to individual stocks and you have the stomach for it.
Great.
You know, continue on.
Right.
Right. But if you don't and you don't aren't aware of the volatility risk involved in owning names like this, then you should be because that's important.
It's important to understand that these stocks can go down 60 or 70 percent before returning to the highs.
That's the nature of the beast with speculation.
on the skeptics and the bears who constantly point fingers at these stocks and say they're
too expensive because the shareholder bases are not thinking about these stocks on a fundamental
basis. And so, yeah, look, valuation matters. It always comes to call when liquidity tightens.
But if you want to understand market premium on a rolling basis in between those crashes, which is really all the best we can hope to do, if you want to understand market premium in the interim, that's what it's about.
It's about exposure and supply and demand of shares.
That's it.
By the way, I did pin up in the nest above
Link to Starfighters
Talk about it in a second, but
Couldn't take up on the opportunity
Short interest is one that
Plays interestingly into that too
But I definitely do hear you
Pasla was one of the few names that closed green today
it's very interesting we talked about this earlier
in the spaces but Elon has definitely changed his tone
pretty aggressively over this
last two weeks or so
back over to Tesla
from all the political
stuff so that's been
I think I saw where he said he was going to spend
what like three days or something
at the White House like he was still going to go to the White House
pretty often. He said it was a couple days
every couple weeks or something like that.
That was how he worded it, I believe.
Not going to guess it, but three interviews today.
He was joyous and happy talking
about Tesla. He was annoyed
and whatever when they brought up Doge and brought up
all this other stuff.
It makes sense
they're getting ready to launch the robo taxi stuff that he comes back like i think anybody
that doubted he wasn't going to be around for this this has been one of his babies right i mean
stock talking about off and thinking that like was there any doubt from most tesla shareholders
that elon would have was going to show back up prior to this soon rollout?
Yeah, no, I don't think there was much doubt about that.
I mean, look, he's a master delegator.
Like, Elon isn't building all these things on his own.
The amount of talent at Tesla is insane.
Like, their software team is maybe one of the best in the world.
You know, probably Microsoft, Tesla, Amazon.
These guys, I mean, obviously the Mag7
have the best software teams in the world.
Apple.
Yeah, Google.
Yeah, so, I mean, these guys are the top
of the food chain talent-wise.
He doesn't need to micromanage the development
of these things.
Look, FSD works really well in certain areas
and needs improvement in other areas. That's the truth about it. I've ridden in hundreds and
hundreds of FSD Teslas over the last five years, and the technology has improved. It's much,
much better than it was three years ago. Is it ready to just the flip to be switched and
everywhere to be autonomous instantly? No.
And Tesla recognizes that.
And that's why they're doing the Austin launch initially.
And Elon wants to be there for that because it's a seminal moment for the company.
But look, I mean, what really matters here is if in the next five years they can do what Elon has said they're gonna do in the next two
Everyone knows him to be ambitious when it comes to time frame. He is ambitious when it comes to time frame. He's usually
You know a little bit behind schedule, but when you're doing brand new things that have never been done
That's part of the process right like the Raptor program for people that follow the development of the rapid program at SpaceX the reusable rocket in the early days people were
like this is an impossible thing you know people were citing the Russians who
tried it back in the 90s and early 2000s and said look people have tried to build
model reusable rockets before but the economics don't make sense it'll never
work like that's what everyone in the industry was saying when SpaceX started the Raptor program
Obviously, they were proven wrong. They didn't do it as quickly as Elon said they would he on said they do it in three years
It was a it was a commercial platform within five years. So he was two years behind schedule, but it was the first ever
Reusable rocket commercial program in history. Okay, so yeah, he did it a little late but he did it right and it's funny because a lot of times the Tesla critics will just
pretend like SpaceX doesn't exist right like the Elon critics will be like well
Elon's a sham he's a con man his technology has never come to fruit and
meanwhile there's like Starships launching in the background right like
what is that just a convenient oh we're gonna pretend SpaceX doesn't exist like
Elon didn't build SpaceX himself and owns the vast majority of the company right he does it's
the most valuable private company in history so he's proven the ability to do impossible things
and you know you look what neural links doing neural links gonna be in a thousand patients by
the end of the year I don't know if anyone saw that video of their last patient, but it's awesome.
It's this dude who used to play video games with his kids, and he can't anymore.
I forgot what his exact injury is, but he's paralyzed and can't speak.
And they put a Neuralink in his head, and he can play video games seamlessly with his kids.
He can talk to his kids.
They use an LLM jump over. I think they
use Grok where it's, you can speak through the Grok voice assistant with Neuralink in his head.
Like that's crazy. And these are, these are things that were thought to be impossible just a few
years ago and are now on the verge of being commercial products. In SpaceX's case, it is
a commercial product. In the case of Neuralink, it's on the verge of being commercial products in SpaceX's case. It is a commercial product in the case of Neuralink
It's on the verge of being a commercial product
Yeah, is Tesla behind schedule with FSD? Yes, Elon has promised it for a long time and
It's still not here. So yeah, that's a fair criticism if your criticism wants to be like well
yeah
Raptor work and Neuralink work and you know all of the other things he tried work, but FSD isn't here yet.
So he's a fraud. Well, I mean, if that's if you really think that's an intellectually honest point of view, sure, you can have that opinion.
My retort would be just wait. Give it a year, give it two years.
And if if if by the end of next year, Waymo's in another 10 cities and Tesla hasn't moved the needle in Austin, then, yeah, you can say, look, you guys failed at the launch and Waymo's taken this industry by storm and you're second place.
You can make that characterization a year from now. But wait, you know, because that's been the right thing to do when it comes to Elon and technology.
Like he tends to win as ridiculous and ludicrous
as his idea seems at the outset he tends to win um so yeah maybe he won't win this time but i'm
not putting my money on that and when it comes to humanoid robotics uh i think he's going to win
there too you know i know a lot of people, I know a lot of people talk about figure, a lot of people talk about these other companies. Figure does not have the production capacity to
be a mass market product today at all. They need probably another 25 billion, maybe 30 billion in
investment. They'd need to build massive tooling factories if they truly want to be vertically integrated, they'd probably need to build some sort of casting or pressing machine similar to what Tesla has with their giga casting.
There's a lot of investment and infrastructure that FIGURE would need to make to be remotely competitive.
You know, and you look at the other niche startup players in the space, same thing goes for all of them as well.
So I think they end up winning in humanoid robotics, too.
Again, that's something we'll have to wait and see.
But I'm just not going to bet against Elon until he proves to have lost the juice.
And for now, I don't think he's lost it. I know a lot of people think this political
stint over the last year has maybe distanced them from Elon or changed their opinion about him.
I don't really care about it. It's not relevant to the technology as far as I'm concerned.
I think he's still the same guy when it comes to being an innovator.
So, you know, I still trust him to do what he says he's going to do,
albeit probably in a little bit of a longer time frame.
Like, do I think Optimus is going to be mass market in six months?
I think it'll probably take a year, two years, maybe three years.
But I think it will be mass market.
And I think it'll probably be the premier option in the space
when it does release.
Now, another thing to keep in mind about him is he's very competitive.
You know, if he sees a humanoid product inching to the finish line,
there's a good chance he'll put, you know,
the fire under people's asses at the Optimist team at Tesla to move more quickly.
team at Tesla to move more quickly. And he's good at doing that at accelerating
products to, you know, a deliverable version if he needs to, to be competitive.
You know, they've done that with this robot taxi launch in June, right? Assuming it happens. But
I mean, we're right around the corner. So I'm going to give them the benefit of the doubt.
He reiterated that it's going to happen today. So, you know, let's see.
But he pushed that up pretty dramatically.
So we'll see.
I think that, you know, I'm not in the camp that betting against him is a smart idea.
And I won't be in that camp until he really spectacularly fails at something,
which I don't think he's going to.
Not yet, at least.
So, yeah.
All right.
What a day.
Boring day, actually.
There was a decent amount of little news stories there late in the day for how slow the market was today have anything else from you before we wrap up here
um yeah first of all check the tweet pinned up in the nest above we're gonna keep talking about
it shout out to starfighters um it's a company we're working with listen it's it's they're
raising money investing in small caps is riskying in private small caps is probably even riskier.
But if you're interested in that type of thing, if you enjoy small caps, if you enjoy investing in companies that are trying to go to space,
Starfighters, it's an interesting concept there.
They are trying to break into that small launch satellite market.
Basically, SpaceX, these massive rockets, they take very big satellites up into space. And with all that technology that's been advancing, satellites have been getting
smaller and smaller. So right now to launch like one of those smaller satellites, you really just
have to kind of hitch a ride when one of those bigger ones are going to a location that you're
going to and you don't really know that's going to happen. And Starfighters is really trying to
focus in on those smaller satellites. They have a private fleet of Mach 2 plus jets. I believe that's like 1500
something miles per hour and they're using those to go basically getting to
space. You just have to go really fast and up. They're kind of betting on that
Mach 2 ability, breaking above 1500 miles per hour. That gives them a kind of a
big edge on cost and agility using these fighter jets
so there's a lot more information on the tweet pinned up in the nest above you guys can dig into
that a little bit stock talks recorded a video on it i'm sure um you know you guys can go find
i'll tweet about or something stock talk you got anything to add on what i was saying there
yeah it's cool company like evan said um risky uh as always because you know small cap and a
private small cap, but
they're doing an interesting thing. I think
nanostat launches and
microsats in general
are a really interesting
opportunity. There's going to be somebody that
wins in that space. They're trying to be that person.
So I think they're working on a cool technology.
Like Evan said, you can go check
it out. I talk a little bit about it in the video.
And there's some other information in the equifund link as well
stock talk you see over a million a million dollars has gone in in the last week
yeah they're doing well yeah they're doing well they're getting a lot of interest you know and
space stocks are doing really well too so i think you know it makes sense they're in the right
category right now there's a lot of excitement about space stocks in the last two years they've been probably the best
category to own frankly in the small and mid-cap space in the last year and a half i mean you look
at what red wire has done rocket lab lunar asts all these names off the lows have been triples
you know some of them even more than that. So that's pretty good return on
a one-year basis. So yeah, there's a lot of investor interest right now in the space economy,
um, in the launch economy, I expect that to probably continue. Um, so yeah, it's,
it's, it's an interesting way to get exposure.
Also make sure you're following the speakers. everyone is fantastic you enjoy uh shout out kirk
and i don't know if logical's up here it shows them as a listener for me um emp and stock talk
and wolf and everyone up here is fantastic if you enjoy this type of live free content
uh every single monday through thursday 3 to 5 p.m eastern at least we are live
here bringing your content doing some good stuff having these great conversations every single Monday through Thursday, 3 to 5 p.m. Eastern at least, we are live here,
bringing you content,
doing some good stuff,
having these great conversations.
And yeah, we appreciate all of you guys
for tuning in.
And if you guys want to make sure
you miss nothing,
make sure you're again following that host.
And I would say even one step further,
go in and hit that bell button
so you get notifications.
We don't put out like 50,000 tweets
from this account.
It's really only the spaces.
So if you hit that bell button, it's going to be tweets that were live or tweets when we're going live.
It's pretty much just that.
So I would recommend you going into the profile, even if you're already following it, and hitting that bell button.
So you can join us and get a reminder every single time we go live at 3 p.m. Eastern on those days.
So, yeah. Click into the host. check, follow it, hit that bell button. We appreciate you all.
I just put a tweet out. So if you guys go to my page, it's basically a little bag job to get
Elon on the spaces. So if you want to hear Elon, come on and talk with us and Stock Talk
and all your other people up here,
Wolf, ask questions.
Go in and go to my profile
and like the last tweet I just put out.
Evan, last thing,
who you got tonight?
Nixon Six.
You don't even play tonight.
It's Pacers and Six. I don't know about this other one
Stock Sock OKC tonight
Give me the Wolves
No, yeah, listen, listen
So it doesn't say anything about the series
But the rest is going to show tonight
This is clearly the Wolves game
I think it's going to be Wolves and the Wolves-Knicks in the finals.
A little Julius versus Cat.
Yeah, that would be a great series to see them go off.
But honestly, I didn't like the trade when it first happened,
but it seems like it's worked well for both teams.
Oh, yeah.
If both teams make it to the finals, what can you say?
Yeah, exactly.
If they both get to the finals, then it really worked.
But I just think Cat fits a little better on the Knicks squad
and Randall fits a little better on the Knicks squad and Randall fits a
little better on the Wolf squad.
I didn't think that initially when the trade went down,
I didn't like the trade at first.
I thought it was terrible trade for the wolves.
You know what all the conspiracy theorists are saying,
right?
Why that will be the final.
What?
Well,
there's your,
there's your storyline.
Also, if you look at the teams that are left, OKC, small market.
Indiana, small market.
You've got to have New York, Boston, LA, some big market team in there, right?
I agree.
That's on your side.
Even though I think it's Pacers and six, but you got the...
I thought you were about to claim that Minnesota was a big market there.
I thought that's where that was going.
No, no, no, no, no.
I was ready to fight you on that.
I mean, OKC will be a big market if they make that deal for Giannis this summer,
which they have the assets to do.
We'll see.
Knicks and six, though.
Wow.
I'm glad I'm back in New York York I'll make sure I'm near the garden
What's up Kirk
Giannis is not going anywhere
Stop that
I forgot that's your hometown
I forgot
I heard the Brewers doing this year
Mets are doing well
Oh into second place in the division though
Two ex-Milwaukee guys, into second place in the division now, though.
Two ex-Milwaukee guys are going to be in the NL Championship Series.
Mets and Cubs make everybody here real happy, I'm sure.
Gross.
I'm a Mets, Jets, Knicks, Rangers fan,
so two of them are still disappointing
But I have not seen this
What's the last New York championship, Evan?
Yankees?
Yeah, it would be the Yankees
No, the Giants
When was the last time the Yankees won?
Oh, dude
New York Liberty, WNBA
What are you talking about?
Disgusting that you didn't even think of that.
Yeah, well, when they're touting their record number the other night
of 2.7 million consecutive viewers,
you can miss me with that.
Yeah, so...
But I think the Giants, maybe?
I don't know.
The last time I've seen my team win a championship
is never
maybe it's time
I saw this on the Wolf Sports Channel
we're just winding down here
I saw this on the Wolf Sports Channel today
who's the greatest Nick of all time
and is Brunson in the conversation
if Brunson wins this doesunson in the conversation now? If Brunson wins this, does he get
in the conversation?
Hell no.
That was my reaction, but people were arguing
against Isaiah Thomas.
Way too early.
I'm 26. What have I seen
in my lifetime? I don't care about...
Listen, if I didn't see it,
it didn't happen.
It's basically Brunson versus Melo,
and we'll see how well Brunson does.
Melo is the greatest Knick of all time.
LeBron is the best player of all time, because that's the best I've seen.
If you're an old head, you can say Patrick Ewing,
but if you're not an old head, then it's Melo.
Did we win one playoff series with him?
I think.
Was that right?
Yeah, he's tough.
We celebrated the game.
I remember when we lost 4-1 in the series.
And we won the one game.
And they were celebrating so hard.
I mean, I don't know.
I've not been able to say Knicks in six too many times.
Yeah, all right.
Pacers in six.
Thunderwind in nine.
You don't know, so I will say, I will say,
with the Jets, I started to watch some of the, like,
you know, like, every team does their, like,
own hard knocks now pretty much for the offets. I started to watch some of the, you know, every team does their own hard knocks now, pretty much,
for the offseason.
I started watching it for the Jets,
and I can't lie, I'm starting to believe now a little.
Not this season, obviously, but Aaron
Glenn I might believe in.
Give us two, three years.
You don't have a quarterback.
Playing the long game.
The Knicks are good, but the Jets are going to continue to suck.
Turn around.
Give me the Lions pathway.
Three years we'll be in the playoffs.
The Lions have Matthew Stafford that they could trade away for value.
Yeah. Lions had Matthew Stafford that they could trade away for value.
All right.
Same time, same place tomorrow.
Full day of spaces.
Check the Wolf Financial pin tweet for all the spaces we have.
We have nine hours straight of spaces tomorrow.
Live trading all day.
A lot of other great conversations going on. Follow the speakers. Follow follow the host hope everyone has a great rest of their tuesday night we'll see you guys tomorrow see ya go thunder Thank you.
