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STOCK MARKET TALK
Recorded: March 25, 2026 Duration: 2:21:52Space Recording
Full Transcription
Thank you. what is up what is up everybody how are we doing hope you guys are all doing well excited for
another day of stocks on spaces i know i am this should be a good one this should be a good one do we have
any earnings let me double check i believe the answer is going to be no here but you never know
there was you know a couple news stories but nothing crazy we do actually obviously have
initial jobless claims coming out tomorrow morning jeffrey's is the only company that
reports earnings stay on my popular list so nothing that that anyone will be watching we'll
talk through some of the news stories we'll talk through some of the other stuff obviously stocks
on spaces live every monday through thursday 3 to 5 p.m eastern except for when we're at events like
gtc we're trying to do our best i appreciate you uh 60 people who are already in here in less than
a minute shout out this should be a good one.
Taking a look over at the market quickly. QQQ is up by about 0.5% so far today. The ETF portfolio
is fading a little bit from intraday's highs. But once this refreshes, my guess is going to be up.
There it is, up 0.7%. There was a story in the last 10 minutes or so, another person confirming from
the Iranian side that they are not talking with the US. That is most likely what it was. Ships
loaded with LNG and stuck in the Middle East are losing product to evaporation. There you go.
I don't know if that's the headline that it was. It was something more along the lines of, see if I can find this quickly.
Iran's Araqchi says US is sending messages through different mediators,
says Tehran demands permanent blah, blah, blah.
Basically says exchange messages via mediators
does not mean negotiations with the United States.
All right, there you go.
So we're getting a little bit more out of this one, but that is what this move in the
last 10 minutes or so is.
Yeah, ETF portfolio is up by 0.7%.
The single stock portfolio, my guess is up by, okay, reloaded before I got to see, but
it's also up by 0.7%.
So Apple's green, Nvidia's still green, Microsoft red. Google red. Scroll down a little
bit. Synaptics down by a little bit. Rocket Lab's up by eight. Okay. Micron's down by four. I might
have dipped my toe into a little bit more Micron yesterday on Spaces. So this move lower might be
my fault. I'm stopping myself. I kind of want to buy more, but we're going to hold off on that one for today.
But maybe not.
We'll see.
Honeywell is up 2.5%.
That's not bad.
CrowdStrike down 2%.
Snowflake down 2%.
Mixed bag across the board with a little bit of weakness in this last 10 to 15 minutes.
We'll see how we end up today.
AMD is up 7.2%.
I'm going to dig deeper into that one but options mike how you doing sir
and can you still hear me if i get pushed today no no i got you sweet i'm good man how are you
doing i'm doing well i am doing well obviously market's moving a little lower here in the last
couple minutes or so i'm gonna get this post out now but um how are you doing sir
you know i'm good you know we're really just in this freaking news driven hell and you know the
only way to just say it is that you have everybody and their mother wants to talk and say what's going
on but the people who probably really know what's going on are probably the ones that aren't talking
you know whether it's the media or countries who have no involvement in this having to open their mouths.
I mean, the market is just gyrating off of all this, which just makes it absolutely a brutal market to trade because, you know, you're constantly getting moves all over the place based for no really good reason.
So it is the environment we're in, you know.
Today was an interesting day.
We started off with the semis being very, very strong out of the gate.
I made nice money on NVIDIA today.
I had a nice bounce.
I didn't get AMD, but AMD's in that gap.
Beautiful move there.
I posted a little bit of a write-up on it on Earnings Hub earlier today.
You guys can check my links for that.
You had ARM with that big guide up yesterday afternoon after the close.
That had almost a $30 move before it came off the highs a little bit.
That's insane.
You know, Intel up again.
They're raising prices.
AMD is raising prices.
You know, these semis continue to be strong.
You take that aside today and, you know, just another ugly day.
Microsoft down under $370 here.
Tesla getting beaten up.
You know, everybody's talking about this billion dollar
bet now uh for the may expiration of the 370 i'm sorry was it the four the 470 strike but i mean
it's cheap you know i you know it's to me it's just looks like it was tied to something i'm not
sure exactly what's going on there but a lot of people are talking about that one today and it
just seems like you know 23 days there's no way you're going to get that kind of move in 23 days it would have to be something unbelievable and i know he's going to
announce up as soon as this week the spacex xai uh ipo but that's not going to be until june
all right just to be the announcement energy's holding strong you got crude back on highs of the
day heaven we have a mess and. And sometimes just staying out of this
or taking small trades is the way to go.
I traded Arm and NVIDIA today.
And honestly, I didn't do anything else after that.
It just, I kept looking at A and B
and then the market would drop and I would say,
I don't know if I trust it.
And you kind of get the idea here
that you wanna be extra careful.
Just wait for this to clear.
When this clears, we'll go back to everything else that's bothering the market but at least we won't
be dealing with this anymore in this constant news headlines at this point that's kind of where we're
all waiting for and hoping for like to see some kind of resolution on this shortly
there you go quick quick little synapses there nice nice nice i appreciate the intro for us
there i think we're on here to start and then we'll kind of circle back down some stuff wolfie
what's up now you heard a little bit of mike's thoughts there but you want to give us the intro
here and we'll get into some more conversations after um sure like what i don't know what intro
i didn't really do much today um you know i've
got some positions that are working that are fine but or just vibes how we're feeling you know if
there's anything yesterday for if there's anything you're seeing on the timeline that
this is the topic i want to go on yeah nothing nothing's changed from yesterday like nothing's
going to change until we get to or get through the weekend and get some sort of action.
Seems to be the playbook. Get to Friday, something happens or is said. Get through weekend, Monday rolls around,
walk back, talk about progress all week, rinse, repeat. But, you know, I do agree with Mike. I mean,
we talked about it yesterday, but let's just assume not everybody heard it, but I do agree.
I think these mega cap names that were darlings of the past are just being sold. And I talked
about yesterday how for me this year has been i've been i was fortunate to be
on the energy and uh some of the uh industrial side so like i mentioned some of the energy names
and i mentioned things like cf um but if you're trying to chase it up here you're just basically
you know firing blind i also talked about how the VIX trading at 25 is basically one and a half
percent daily ranges.
And it's good for like trading, but it's like intraday trading,
but makes for difficult overall swinging and things like that.
Unless you get, you know, these special situations,
idiosyncratic plays,etric setups stuff like that we talked
about you yesterday i mentioned some of the space names um i've talked about iridium on your on your
thing before today iridium broke out of a three-year downtrend um they've got like a a special
a special case for one of their chips so like if you're looking for stuff
like that you get these opportunities but i think the days of just like waking up and
you know buying the mags or holding the mags or you know relying on the mags uh are not ideal
i think uh mike alluded to that and if you take a look at like microsoft it just hasn't been able
to find any kind of bid uh for the whole month, pretty much the whole year.
I think it's down 20% now on the year.
Same thing for Oracle.
That was the precursor to some of these moves.
Tesla is now the same thing.
Yeah, I agree with Mike.
People talk about effectively the call buys or or this unusual trade.
But if you take a look at Tesla last week, it broke its 50 week, broke its 200 day.
Today, we just went right back to the undercut of the 200 day and basically failed to the penny.
SPX yesterday talked about the range, talked about how basically 6650 upside.
You're going to see some sort of resistance 65 50 was support that
we cracked and you just basically set up your goal posts like if you could take out that 65 50 level
reclaim that 200 a and hold sure you could potentially set up for a mean reversion higher
downside same thing um but for me it i just, it comes down to trying to find individual names that don't have that large of a market cap that could possibly move or find levels for some of these resets and some of these sectors that are working.
So like talking about energy in particular, you know,'s basically uh where i'm at the the other thing is you know
we're we're basically in whether you want to call it the fog of war whether you want to call it
sausage making whatever description you want to use for this stuff we're basically in this
situation where we're going headline to headline and there's a can we call
it shit show shit show that's great i love that technical term shit show and you're getting this
fire hose of information and you know unreliable sources of of the past in some cases are proving
reliable reliable sources of the past in some cases are proving unreliable and vice versa.
And, you know, if you, you see, you see the algos, right? Like you see a headline comes out,
you see a spike one way or the other. And in some cases, um, you get this like lag delay where it like uh readjusts i mean an example of this is not related to the
the the war stuff was um when jensen was talking for nvidia there was this like a multi-trillion
dollar headline and you saw the algos kind of like react to it and then people reprice it once
they kind of like did the math and extrapolate it was like oh he didn't really say anything new
um you know and so we're seeing that you see that on a day-to-day basis our our
basis now in some cases there's it'll be like talks are coming no talks are coming ongoing
not ongoing deny ceasefire and like in and so you could if you're like a scalper, and this is like a dream for you, especially with the range being so wide, but for like multi-day, multi-week, multi-whatever, you really got to be selective, in my opinion.
And you, in my opinion, have to be a little bit less exposed to some of these bigger names.
So that's kind of like where I'm at.
Having said that, like, I think Apple traded down to its 200 day on Friday, pretty much to the penny. So might have undercut it. So basically, it gives you Friday's lows at 246 and change is your bogey. So if that's like something you're interested in, you can have a ball. It's not something I'm interested in personally, but just have a ball.
a ball it's not something i'm interested in personally but just have a ball um and then
outside of that for me like i've talked about i try to find these names that get dislocated and
find these like aggressive mean reversion setups for uh disconnects between short and midterm
so like in some cases you'll get uh stocks that'll sell off% in like a matter of weeks or days. And you'll get this, uh,
disconnect between the short-term moving averages, like on a five day moving average or a 10 day,
whatever people like to use. And then like the midterm moving averages, 20, 50 day, like sometimes
that spread will grow to about 20, 25%, um, or, or higher. Like if you're trying to find setups like that,
like cool,
have a ball.
But I think there's no,
I think there's no bigger tell to the lack of like,
you know,
sustained momentum where people like to find momentum.
Like there's been momentum in like energy and things like that.
But I think people pretty much across the board were underweight energy going into the year and even up until this conflict.
And if you and the conditioning of being in tech software, some of these tech names, like the momentum completely evaporated there.
Some of these tech names, like the momentum completely evaporated there.
And if you want, like, there's no, to me, there's no bigger proof that people are starved for that type of momentum.
Then taking a look at this VCX fund, Rise Innovation Fund, which, you know, opened on Thursday of last week at $31 and traded today with a high of like $5.75.
traded today with a high of like 575.
So like things like that to me speak volumes that like, you know,
people are starved for the type of momentum names that they're accustomed to
trade. And they're still not participating in some of this other stuff.
But having said that I'm not looking to get cute.
I'm not looking to like, you know, get aggressive on anything.
Like I said, I've talked about some names on, on show we talked about you yesterday i mentioned uh iridium i've talked
about like uh rivian like those are the types of things that i'm looking for until things resolve
i do think that whenever you get this spacex uh whenever people understand when this spacex ipo
is going to happen i don't i don't know what the to happen, I don't know what the proposed date is currently.
But whenever we get clarity on that.
He said he wants to IPO it around his birthday, which I believe is June 29th, so sometime in June.
Sure. Yeah. So like if it's June and like whenever it starts to happen, whenever it's like, OK, it's happening.
June and whenever
it starts to happen, whenever it's like,
okay, it's happening. I do think
that some of these
related names might get a bump,
especially if
the proposed
market cap starts to increase.
Was there any Rocket Lab
news outside of SpaceX stuff?
Is that what all of Space is moving off of today?
Yeah, it's moving off of today yeah it's moving
off of deep i sold planet labs way too early damn it's okay i held that thing for years i only
doubled my money and then here we are oh really yeah i literally bought it at like five dollars
back in 2022 uh held it through the thing and then we ended up selling it at like 10.
I bought it on I bought it on the breakout in September of 2025 but I didn't buy any I didn't
buy anywhere near enough and now I look at it I'm like yeah I should have bought more but
yeah like but you know there's names like that that have worked and they've continued to work and they just kind of fly under the radar and are unattended.
Stuff like that's cool, but the problem for me, it's not really a problem, but the issue is that when you start to have, let's say, I own Rocket Lab, Planet Labs, ASTS, RDW, Iridium, and like, I think one other one, like at this now, at this point,
like I'm pretty much overexposed on the sector. So like, I'm not really looking to add more space
names, you know what I mean? And so it's like the moves are, some of the moves are there.
They're flying under the radar. They are smaller market cap type things. But I don't I don't I'm not looking to get get overexposed or overly cute because, you know, the opposite could happen from what I just said about like whenever whenever the proposed IPO starts to be real.
you could get between now and then you can get something that like a ratcheting of like conflict
arms or like uh negotiations off the table or you know bb goes rogue or whatever the case may be and
then next thing you know like we get like a real blatant sell-off and now you're overexposed so
you're not you're not there go ahead mike you know something that could really happen with this ipo
because it's so big i think they're expecting it to like 1.8 1.9 trillion you can see a lot of money come out of names to go into that
that's a lot that's that's what I'm you can see that's what I'm that's what I'm uh that's what I
think some of this mag 7 is go ahead Mike could be it's a little early but it could be yeah I think
I think like I think that's some of it um I think maybe people are repositioning in advance of this.
But I do think that it also, simultaneously based on what you just said,
my same kind of concept, but I do think that if and when it does go public,
that is a good, quote unquote, hiding place if you want it to move sideways.
Because those market caps are humongous, right?
So like you need some vehicle that could offset, you know,
repositioning from that. So I, yeah, I don't know,
but I do agree with you there.
One day, man.
Yeah. Outside of that, outside of that, I've been like, I i don't really got much i don't got much
more to add i would just again say 66 50 upside 65 50 was the the low uh support range 64 75 is
your short gamma uh support so like you know those are your those are your benchmarks and
then you can just like trade around it There's moves like AMD's up 7%.
Mike mentioned it.
Things like that.
If you want to find names and trade around it,
yeah, that's for trading.
But I don't particularly see anything
until we get some sort of actual clarity
that kind of opens the door for more of a sustained move
in either direction.
I do hear what you guys are saying i feel like though as like
it's just weird like a long-term investor i know stock talk just gives shit you me shit when i or people shit when they say that but this does feel like more of the time when i'm like a little more
okay to put in a little share or two in some of these opportunities that i've kind of been watching for a while a micron that I ran up to watch front up to 500 and I didn't put all
of them but who knows I mean I don't know uh this is where I try to hold myself back from from taking
the real opportunities it doesn't feel like we're at the blood in the street part but it does feel
like I'm in the period where I'm interested in nibbling so I know we're talking different time
frames here but like my mind is starting to get to that point
of just trying to go around and find one or two things
that I was a fan of before.
Double-checked that I'm still a fan of it now.
Obviously, I want to keep that going
and see what we can do from there.
But I don't know.
Maybe I need to take a second look at SoFi.
Maybe I need to take a look at Micron as well.
Those are ones that I'm just kind of keeping an eye on
that I'm interested in. I'm literally Micron and well. Those are ones that I'm just kind of keeping an eye on that I'm interested in.
Literally, Micron added more yesterday.
I don't know.
I don't present myself as the expert on these spaces,
so I'll probably lose money on some of these.
I'm starting to get a little more interested than I was.
Maybe we're one or two more down days.
Maybe we're get below Friday's low
and I start to get a little more interested in there.
But yeah.
I'll see.
We shall see.
So like, I'm not, I'm not saying that, you know,
if you don't like something for the longterm, you've got like powder dry,
like, you know, you could add to that's not, that's not necessarily the,
I don't think Mike is either. I think the thing I'm really trying to stress is there's no inflection point yet that's
suggesting that you're going to have a dynamic move in one way or the other.
Like we're sitting at a VIX sitting at 25 and it basically is oscillating between, you
know, 20, 22, 21 and change and 35.
And for the most part, it's like, you know, tightening, narrowing, but it's like basically sitting at 25.
So like there's no there's no clarity.
You know, generally you want to see some sort of rate of change on the VIX get spike north of 40 or 50.
And then when you get that rate of change, generally that's kind of like a,
if you can get that in conjunction with like a low RSI
or with like, you know, major moving average support
or fear and greed index,
like if you get all these like tiles
that just kind of like move in conjunction with one another
with basically like a blow off top
in the rate of change on the VIX,
like that's usually where you get some sort of like localized bottom.
And then you start to see volatility melt and assets move.
But like, we're just kind of like hovering.
And so in a situation like that, yeah.
Like if you've got, if you just got like money stored away
and you just want to like add this stuff for like multi, multi, multi years.
I mean, who am I to tell you what to do, right?
Like I'm not, I'm not saying that, but I'm just playing. had this stuff for like multi multi multi years i mean who am i to tell you what to do right like
i'm not i'm not saying that but i'm just playing the game i'm playing is like you know have i seen
anything that has changed from you know monday tuesday when we had these conversations here on
wednesday that suggests that i need to go out and make a move right now and i just really haven't
like you know we open on a gap let's assume that we wake up tomorrow morning and we have a definitive end for this war, right?
Let's just say that happens.
And the market's going to rally somewhat.
But the question is, and everything else that's been bothering this market comes back to play.
I don't think we go screaming back to all-time highs.
I think that this is just one of many things that have been bothering this market.
And, you know, that doesn't mean we're gonna just instantly go running back
Then at least we'll get the headline drama gone, but then we'll go back to everything else. I think you're right. There's just just
What's happened in the background there you spam clicking something oh
I was so I had my computer was hanging up. I was trying to get to come back up. I
Mean, I don't think spam clicking like that does too much
actually
It sounded like you were playing like a video game in the background while you were talking kind of
then but i i hear what you're saying uh i don't know we'll see the other thing the other thing uh
You're saying I don't know
evan is what's led us the last like three months has been energy so like on this on what mike's
saying like presume that tomorrow you get this headline it clears like the instant reaction is
going to be that these energy names sell, right?
Like that'll like,
some of these names will sell some of this short-term,
uh, short-term alpha gets repriced.
And then like you,
from that point,
you might get a mean reversion higher on some of these names have been
beaten up or whatever,
but like,
what is the leadership then?
Right?
Like,
I don't know.
I mean,
maybe Mike, you know, maybe you can speak to it, but I don't really see a very, you know, strong leadership group besides some of these energy names currently.
Or what could pick up the baton and move from there?
There has been absolutely no leadership in this market for the last month before this started, other than energy, to
your point.
And, you know, that's the problem.
And the other thing you have going on here is you have commodities moving in ways they
should move.
Typically, when you have a weak market, gold is strong, silver is strong, bonds are strong.
They're moving with the market right now.
They literally are all moving with the market.
There's some real weirdness going on out here more than we more than that just
defines this work yep and so that's that's basically like in a nutshell why i think
um trying to find special situations or you know businesses that are at inflection points that can
last beyond the next 12 months or you know stocks that you like that are at inflection points that can last beyond the next 12 months or, you know,
stocks that you like that are at the beginning of a growth phase that could
last,
you know,
18 months independent of what's going on in a war front.
Sure.
Like things like that.
Sure.
But like some of these tried and trusted large mega cap names that people
just kind of like passively index into,
it's not for me right now.
Yeah, that's fair.
I'm still
going into it. I get that the
environment doesn't look as good right now. We'll see.
We'll see what the next couple months looks like, and
I'll probably be there too early.
I've been mining this one ETF a little bit,
QTOP, which is like the NASDAQ 30
pretty much, and
you can find a part of the money in there nothing will
always be the the perfect time but we'll see but that's one that i've been buying a little bit
actually of qtop qq is the largest holding still but as far as ets wise obviously i have a lot of
single stocks as well i actually have more single stocks than i have etfs but yeah
I actually have more single stocks than I have ETFs, but yeah.
All right.
That's some of the stuff that's the good conversation there.
Are there any of these special situations or interesting little stories we got going on there, Wolfie, that have fun for you?
I know we've been talking about three of them.
Maybe we dig in deeper into some of them.
Some of the news stories today that I thought were interesting was SK Hynix possibly going public. I thought that was a little bit interesting. There was
another one, American Express unveiling a couple of new credit cards today. Didn't seem
to move too much there. We also had Meta Platforms launching a new small business suite. We
had Apple doing Apple ads and stuff, although I know they're not going to go on the radar
based on that last conversation. There's also this new tech council that was established. I wonder if there's
any like weird, I wonder an ETF with that with those companies that it would probably do pretty
decent. But I found the SK Hynix story to be interesting. Was there anything standing out to
anything standing out to you? I know you're a sports guy,
you? I know you're a sports guy, at least football. I don't know if you're a basketball guy,
at least football. I don't know if you're a basketball guy.
NBA voting to expand
a franchise's two new teams.
Yeah,
no, I'm a basketball guy.
No, they're
looking to rake
$460 to $650 million
per team.
What does this do to MSGS?
Do you think there's anything there?
That's a $460 million
one-time payment, if and when that happens, right?
So each team will get to split that franchise revenue.
And if you just do $7 to $10 billion times 2 divided by 30, you basically get $450 million to $650 million, somewhere around there, or $6 650 million, somewhere around there,
or 670 million, somewhere around there,
per team.
So that's like half a bill that goes straight to MSG, right?
But yeah, outside of, like you asked,
special situation, I mean, I've talked about some of them,
but I'll just go into a little bit more detail for you.
Like Iridium broke out of a three-year downtrend today.
Iridium was basically
being priced as a mature satellite company with flat growth uh they're the only set they're the
only satellite network on earth that could solve gps vulnerability they got a special chip coming
out uh you know it should be more demanded mid to late 26 uh that could that could solve the spoofing and GPS vulnerability crisis that happened.
It's called the PNT ASIC.
And then, you know, they have a potential golden dome architecture where they could
front run where they could basically generate 500 million in EBITDA and 16% free cash flow.
So like this is a company that was basically left for dead.
You know, it wasn't as sexy as some of the other satellite names.
They've got like an actual new vertical, new product.
They were trading seven times EBITDA, no value to PNT, zero potential growth, no Golden Dome optionality, no NTN Direct.
They were just basically left for dead.
Yeah, now they possibly are going to be in a situation where they're going to grow 24% CAGR and have a chip that people actually need or want to solve some of these GPS and spoofing problems in conjunction with some of this other stuff. the reason but like if you looked at their um if you looked at their previous a couple of reports
um they were basically signaling some of the stuff that they've already got on books was starting to
to re-accelerate and so everything else on top that's just like icing so that's like one for
example i mean i've talked about we talked about you yesterday. I don't think, I don't think you up here is anywhere anyone should like go chase or anything like that.
But basically you going into the year was, was a possible World Cup play, a B2B accelerated play, basically using your face as security play.
basically using your face as security play and all the TSA stuff just
basically kind of put a little match to kerosene.
And, you know, right now they're, you know,
I talk about sometimes using basic,
basic inflection points or basic tells from overall people or headlines and
things like that to kind of like indicate where you might be too far too fast in either direction. I think right now, like I wake
up, my lady is sending me this morning a Wall Street Journal article saying there's one clear
winner from the long TSA wait times at the airports. It's clear. And I'm like, okay, you know, when she's
sending me stuff on stuff like this, like, that's probably a too far too fast moment.
That's just the way I see it. Maybe it's anecdotal, whatever. So I like, again, I wouldn't,
I wouldn't chase it. It's up by 60% in the last month. Beyond then, like, there's other ways,
like, to think about things. So like, if, If this war persists, yeah, some of these energy names are going to get repriced or reset or sold off a little bit.
There's other things that haven't moved as aggressively but that may persist with the bottlenecks.
but that may persist with the bottlenecks.
For example, LNG.
For example, LNG.
And so you might want to kick the tire on some of these LNG names
on the back of some sort of resets.
Again, I own LNG.
I own VG.
Those are the two I own, but there's other names as well.
Refineries should continue to do fine independent of war bottlenecks,
should continue to do fine independent of war bottlenecks,
especially if you can get the oil price back down in a meaningful way.
So those are the types of things that I look at.
And then outside of that, Mike mentioned that some of the things
that usually trade independent of stocks are starting to move
in conjunction with stocks.
Two of those that
two of those that he mentioned are basically like silver and and gold that's you know if you go back
whatever so whatever it was i think it was january when gold was like basically mooning up into the
right you had all these like former bitcoin spaces turned into gold and silver spaces like that was
like an inflection point um but basically what that it's funny because i was
here in the back end of that i was like nothing's working guys we just gotta talk bitcoin gold is
basically some of the stories that were there for a second but continue yeah no so uh if you if you
go back to that that point basically what that signaled is that like um people were chasing for
momentum um and when you had a moment where moment where gold and silver were moving in conjunction to the upside with markets at the time, it was kind of like your tell that, okay, this stuff is no longer moving on whatever fundamental basis.
It's just a momentum chase.
It's the same narrowing of performance chase.
of performance chase.
And so, you know, you look at it now,
we're probably going to get to some sort of inflection point here
in the next couple of weeks, months or so,
where the sell-off in gold in particular gets to a point
where the metal itself sells off, you know, 25%, 30%
into major moving averages, into major inflection points.
And then you might see a decoupling the other way, right?
Where you see it then start to normalize and start to act and behave the way that it quote unquote should.
Or it's like a little more defensive.
It's moving like, you know, independent of risk on risk off assets.
And that'll be like a tell to like kind of get involved.
So like, I think that's kind of how you have to think of it.
You know, outside of that, like I said yesterday,
I track every sector on a three month basis daily.
So every day, like I have a dashboard that I built
that will track sector performance for the last 12 weeks for each of the sectors in the market.
And anytime we get to a situation where it's like the bad news, like I see bad news, but like sector performance stalls or starts to reverse the other way and vice versa.
That's like where I start to look to see, okay, well, where are we on the back of some
of this stuff?
One of the things I'll give you today, just in the last, I think, six weeks, take a look
at the XLP.
XLP got as high as like 90.
We've traded down to 80 and change today.
It's a 10% sell off in like a month,
right back to the 200 day,
right back to support.
if you can get some sort of hold in the next couple of days,
I wouldn't be shocked to see XLP like give you some sort of mean reversion
trade and give you five,
6% to the upside.
As far as the XLP is concerned,
that's a huge move because it's like supposed to be a boring sector.
It's not like tech, but yeah yeah that's kind of like an example like looking for things like that back to support ranges etc etc but i'll stop there
almost stopped appreciate you wolfie
appreciate you sir what's up uh stock talk how you doing Appreciate you, Wolfie. Appreciate you, sir.
What's up, Stock Talk? How are you doing?
What's going on?
You said he's mad at you.
Oh, there he is.
Hey, bud.
So it is probably mocking Leo time,
but I figured the fact that we disconnected
and reconnected a couple times
that we were present.
I'm just, you know,
saying hi. How you feeling? Anything you want
to start out with? Any
thoughts, questions you received? Top
of mind today? Then we can
come in with more specific topics.
What do you mean? Things like
that I'm noticing from today's action yeah i'm also
imagine that you're getting a lot of people asking you different questions i'm probably
some you know you're watching a lot of different stocks i don't know if there's any yeah i mean
things that have been more top of mind of the conversations today throughout your day yeah i
mean markets are green today so you know my stocks are up but i mean i'm not gonna sit here and point
out that they're up because of some specific reason. They're up because the market's bouncing today.
You know, there's a bit of relief because of the headlines. I don't think that,
you know, I don't think we're out of the woods, technically speaking. I mean,
we're just not out of the woods. I'm going to speak objective here.
We continue to just rally into overhead moving average resistance
and then fade. That's what we've been doing for the last 23, 24 days. So yeah, it's just
very difficult to build a trend-based strategy in an environment like this. And I'm a trend trader,
right? So for a guy like me in this environment, you just sit on your hands, you know, and there's,
it sounds like, that doesn't sound very insightful, but that's what I've been taught to do over,
you know, I've been trading for basically my entire adult life. And I've been taught to do over, you know, I've been trading for basically my entire adult life.
And I've been taught to do that by markets, especially by choppy markets.
I think that people have this propensity to want to be active at all times and to be buying or selling things at all times.
And they feel like if they're not doing that, they're missing out on opportunity or they are somehow not capturing alpha that's available to them.
One thing I've noticed about this market is the biggest movers in this chop have just been, I don't want to say memes because some of them have good stories and some of them probably have a reason to be moving.
But they've been generally these small caps that are exploding
to the upside on some sort of narrative that's being delivered. And that's what's catching bids
in this market. And then obviously you have days like today where you get a bounce in pretty much
everything. I mean, this morning I had like pretty much all my positions green. Going into the close,
I think I'll have like 12 out of 16 green or something like that um but
that's not really an actionable environment for me for my taste you know i'm not going to go and
like chase memes and be like okay i'm gonna buy this and then sell it into uh you know a gap up
where where people are just buying it for some sympathy reason or some narrative related reason. And so I just try to stay focused on the names that I own.
For me this year, VIAVI has been the big driver of the portfolio.
That was green again today.
IRDM had a really nice day today with the space stocks.
We picked up calls on that a couple of weeks ago, the 22 and a half calls,
which are up about 160, 170% into the close.
So that's nice.
But outside of that, I'm just sitting on the stocks that I've owned for a while
that I have conviction in, and I'm waiting for the situation to resolve.
Until we get a recapture, a meaningful recapture of the 200-day on the S&P 500
and the Qs, you're going to have an unfavorable environment, period.
That's how stocks work.
You know, the environment matters much more than the stock.
And in a trending market where you have the indexes above all the moving averages, making
new highs consistently, it's not hard to make money.
It's just not hard to make money in an environment like that.
You can throw darts at anything and you'll probably catch a gap up or two.
And that was last year's market.
That was the 24 market.
That was also the 23 market.
I think all three of those years you could have characterized as trending markets to the upside where, yes, stock picking matters in those environments if you want to have crazy levels of outperformance, but it's just not hard to make money in environments like that.
In this type of environment, I think protecting capital is much more important, and that's what I've done.
I'm still sitting at a 56%, 57% year-to-date gain, which is nice, but my portfolio has been chopping around over the last month.
which is nice, but my portfolio has been chopping around over the last month, right? Like I'll have
days where I'm pushing up to break out of that performance trap. And then I'll have other days
where I'm sliding back down, maybe into the 48, 49% performance range. And so that's chop.
But because of the strong January we had, I was able to build a defensible sort of lead
versus the market. And I've just been trying to protect that lead
and protect my capital. And so until we see a trend, I'm not going to be doing a whole lot,
frankly. And that's just how I operate in environments like this. So I have enough
long exposure on the table to where if markets rip here and just pull off a major reversal and
you know recover all the moving averages i have enough long exposure you know so that puts me in
a position where i can be like i don't have to worry about buying the dip or trying to guess
when markets are going to bottom and sitting here stressing out.
If markets rip here, I have more than enough long exposure that my portfolio will benefit tremendously.
And if markets dump here, I've reduced options exposure enough that it won't kill me.
And that's really the name of the game.
The name of the game is protection of capital.
And then when you're in a trending market, that's when you start throwing darts and being really aggressive.
And that's what I did for the last three years straight.
I built a huge performance in those three years.
And then now I'm chilling and waiting.
I still have a pretty good lead on the market.
You know, S&P 500 is down 3% this year.
I'm up 57%.
So I'm not complaining.
But I also know the environment that we're in.
And I also know that like taking outsized risk here to try to capture new opportunities isn't necessarily the smartest thing to do.
Because you can be caught by a gap down any day on a headline. And so in a headline driven market, it's very difficult, I think, to identify consistent opportunity unless you're dealing with some of these micro caps or small caps that have really narrative-driven stories that don't get sold with the broader market because they're not institutionally owned.
And so those are the things that have been able to buck the trend recently.
And outside of that, I've just been focused on my own names.
on my own names.
Do you have any personal strategies for you
for when you should be doing nothing?
Obviously, there is people different
who are going to have every different reaction
for what it takes for them to be like,
hey, maybe I'll go outside.
When the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ
are below all the moving averages,
in my opinion, you should either be
raising cash or doing nothing.
That's my view. And in most scenarios, I would say you should be hedging. But the tricky part
about this environment and hedging is that you're dealing with chop more than you're dealing with a
downtrend. Like markets are not in a bear market, right? If you're in a bear market, I'd be like,
in a bear market. If you're in a bear market, I'd be like, put some shorts on and let them ride the
way you'd treat regular positions. But we're not in a bear market. We are in a choppy environment
where the indexes are very weak. Every counter trend rally is effectively a dead cat bounce
because it's catching resistance at the moving averages. That is quite literally the definition of a dead cat bounce, where you have something that's trading below all of its
moving averages, rallies into its shortest term moving averages, and gets rejected. That's what
all the indexes look like right now. Not all the indexes, but the major indexes,
spying the queues, where all the liquidity is. So when you're in that environment, you can hope
and say, the first green day you see,
you can sit there and hope and be like, this looks like a bottom to me. A lot of names I like are up.
This looks like a bottom to me. But that's not really grounded in any sort of objective strategy.
You're just guessing. And so I don't think that professional traders or investors, I certainly don't do this, sit around guessing.
That's not a sustainable strategy.
That's not a high probability strategy.
Like, oh, I think the markets have stopped selling here because these three names I look at are bright green today and I don't want to miss them.
So I'm going to buy them.
That's not a sustainable strategy.
Over the course of decades or years years that won't make you money. Markets are about probabilities
and the probabilities are in your favor when markets are trending to the upside.
And right now they are not trending to the upside. Can that change in two or three or four days
with some big green days to the upside? Can structure repair? Yes, it can. But until that
happens, I just don't see the point in like overzealously waiting for a bottom. I've brought
this example up many times, but last year during the April flash crash on tariffs, I didn't buy
anything in April, not one thing. I didn't sell much either, but I didn't buy anything. And I didn't start buying stocks back in last year until early May. I think it was like May 5th, May 6th, I started buying stocks.
They had recaptured major moving averages. They'd spent some time above those moving averages with consistent bids. And that's a more favorable environment. And from there, many of those stocks I bought in May of last year, 4X or 5X, up 5, 6, 700% going into the end of the year.
here. I'd rather wait for those types of opportunities. I'd rather buy a recovery in the indexes than
attempt to guess a bottom in the indexes. That is not a high probability strategy.
And so I focus on probabilities. Right now, the probabilities, in my view, are not
in your favor until the markets recapture major levels. And so I'll be waiting for the markets
to recapture major levels. That's I'll be waiting for the markets to recapture major levels.
That's pretty much as simple as it gets.
That is fair.
Before we keep going on, Sniper,
I'm curious how you're doing today.
Any earnings you're watching?
There's literally only Jeffrey's nothing,
but if there's anything you want to throw into the mix
and any conversations we've been having.
I'm doing alright. Honestly, I don't
think there's that many exciting earnings coming
out today. I think that the biggest
one of the week was Andos before
open on Wednesday today.
But, you know,
I don't really think
that's a
You're lagging pretty bad. I think that's not just me, StarTalk, right? Yeah, he's lagging pretty bad i think that's not just me start off right
yeah he's lagging give me one second
yeah no worries at all it's just jeffries we had game stop yesterday we had pin duo duo
uh on dust was on monday so there have been not many earnings but we're really kind of past the thick
of it next week for anyone curious we have nike reporting earnings and that's about it so
not many catalysts one of the things also stock talk here is we're not in a
a catalyst heavy environment uh like we there's no earnings there's no like fomc not that the
market would care about fOMC right now.
We're just in the headlines. We're the only thing we have coming.
And this probably seems like it's going to continue like that for the next week or two.
I'm sitting here thinking as a not a crazy geopolitical expert in here.
I don't need to go from a stock market news guy into some geo.
I do watch and kind of keep up with the stuff.
But just the feelings are right now is
this does not feel like this does not feel like something that's about to end very quickly i don't
know how you're feeling on it but it does feel like we're getting this it does feel like we might
be able to be dragging something that's pretty long um they're talking about boots on the ground
like it that's the direction i still think this is going. And as much excitement there was around the ceasefire talks.
And we were talking here earlier about what the market does if this war does come to an end.
Options Mike and some others were kind of talking, hey, some of the problems that we were having earlier before this war happened are still kind of there.
When you look at the market in January and February, it still was more like this.
Stock tech, you sort of adjust your trading, your investing style to go from these like high flow.
You were looking a lot more at valuations in the second half of last year.
So a lot of this was happening before.
I mean, in November, I started looking more seriously at prices, aka valuations.
The reason for that is because, again, I've been doing this for long enough to know when things are getting long in the tooth.
And last November, I felt like there was too much speculation.
And it was getting a little heavy-handed.
And in that kind of environment, maybe you'll miss some upside.
But I started pivoting very aggressively then to names like Amcor and VIAVI and Inersa Systems, ENS,
which are, by the way, still my three biggest positions, VIAVI, Amcor, and ENS.
And they've done well
in this market they've held up very well i mean via v's up what like 90 year to date the first
three months of the year something crazy like that you'll see a year to date
yeah i mean it's up from 18 to 37 so it's up over 100% year to date um you know and that's my biggest position um
so yeah I think
some of it's instinct for me I rely more on instinct now with my decisions than I did
when I was newer to trading and if you rewind the clock like eight or nine years ago, I was a little more
cowboy-ish with my trading and investing, just looking for the stuff that could go up the most.
Now that I have a lot more capital, I treat things a little bit differently, but I also
lean on instinct much more heavily now. I'm not as process driven as I was because I trust my instinct more after many, many years of outperforming the market than I did
when I was a younger trader. So I do talk about process, you know, in our workshops that I do for
our community, I talk about like things you should look at from a technical structure perspective and
things you should look at from a valuation perspective. But what I don't do is like, I don't stay so strict to my rules that I forgo my instinct,
especially in markets like this. And so it really is for me a decision-making process of instinct
above all. And in November of last year, that pivot that I made in my portfolio not only gave
me a great finish to the end of the year last year, where I was able to close at 500% return for the last year, but it also gave me really good juice into January of this year, where my portfolio was able to jump into the plus 50% performance category in just the first month of the year.
And then for most of February and a lot of March, I've just been chopping around. But I'm okay with chop if I've built a cushion versus the market very early in the year,
which I did in January this year.
So it really depends on what your style is, what sort of stocks you're looking at,
how long you've owned them,
if you have favorable enough cost-based advantages to hold them through volatility.
All of these things are relevant to what you do in environments like this. But
one thing I've noticed, especially from the questions I get in our community and the chatter
I see on X, is that a lot of inexperienced traders, many of them who think, by the way, that they
are experienced, but many inexperienced traders think that every environment has these droves
of opportunity.
And the reality is, is that's not the case.
Most of the opportunity in an environment like this is narrative-driven meme trading
the opportunity in an environment like this is narrative-driven meme trading nonsense and while
nonsense.
some people have fun gapping those stocks up these 40 50 60 million market caps that can go up you
know 100 in a week that's just not my style um you know i i i'm not gonna go in and scalp and trade
the shit goes like that so if you want to that, there's opportunities to do that in an environment like this. There's plenty of Twitter pages pumping those stocks. You can go trade the
pumps and hope that you're not the last one holding them. That's an opportunity if you guys
want to do that, but I don't want to do that. I want to stick to high conviction names,
research-driven names that I can size into with real size and make real money.
And that's what I'm focused on.
And right now, those opportunities aren't really there.
That being said, there are stocks that are strong versus the market.
And I'm happy to hold those names.
Like some of the names that I mentioned, like Amcor and VIAV and ENS,
which are strong versus the market and are holding up well and building structure well.
I'm happy to hold those.
And I have a lot of my portfolio exposure in those names. And when the market
chops around on those names, I don't get nervous and I don't get concerned about like valuation
grounding, right? Like I'm looking at a lot of these names that, and I won't name any specific
ones, but I'm sure a lot of people in the audience know these names have been gapping up
over the last couple of weeks. I look at these names, they're trading at 40, 50 times sales,
you know, with no profitability. Like, sure, can they go higher? Yeah, but I'm not going to be the
guy that pushes them there, you know, and I'm not going to be the guy that shills those stocks
to my followers. I've built a reputation over years in our community and on X for consistent stock picks that are research driven, that aren't just bullshit meme stock like, you know, theses.
or myself, frankly, by pivoting to just, hey, this is a meme stock that could go up because
it has a good narrative and it's tied to something that's sexy.
And let's run it 100%.
Like, that's just not my style.
There's other people on Twitter that do that, but it's not my style.
So yeah, in this environment, you're going to find opportunities like that.
I don't know if people remember like last year during the April tariff tantrum,
there was a lot of like Chinese listed shitcos, ADRs that were going up like five, six,
700%.
Everyone was trading those.
I didn't trade those either.
Like, you know, so I like to stay focused on quality.
And the reason for that is not only because of it being my style, research-driven, longer-duration style, but also because I feel comfortable holding those names through volatility.
Because I understand that they're reasonably valued stocks.
In most cases, they're profitable, they're cash flow generating,
or they have an opportunity for acquisition, et cetera, et cetera.
I'm fine holding those through 10%, 15%, 20% drawdowns. I have no problem with that. And I can sleep fine at night holding those names. If I was in a bunch of these memes,
and the market's chopping around back and forth, I wouldn't feel comfortable.
I wouldn't feel like my capital is protected.
So that's why I don't operate that way.
But yeah, there are long opportunities out there in this market.
Most of them are shitcos.
Most of them are narrative-driven trades.
Most of them have no valuation grounding whatsoever.
You look at some of the space stocks that were up today,
like IRDM is the one that I have. It was up nicely today. It was up 10% today, 10.5%. You look at some of the other space stocks
that were up today, up 25, 30%. They're up in sympathy to the SpaceX IPO. And all of them are
ridiculously priced. You have Satellogic, SATL, which trades at what, 65 times sales. You have Satellogic, S-A-T-L, which trades at, what, 65 times sales?
You have Sidus Space, which is a shit co, S-I-D-U.
That's up 20% today.
I just, I'm not going to buy those names.
Can you make money if you capture them on a nice trade?
Sure, but that's just not me.
And I'm looking across my watch list now and a lot of
the double digit gainers are just shit goes. And I don't know. That's not up my alley. I'd rather
own a name like IRDM, which I think has a real value proposition and is trading at a much more
reasonable valuation than all the other space stocks. I'd rather own that and sit on that and
be very comfortable holding that than buy one of these like space meme stocks just to get narrative exposure.
So yeah, I mean, that's just a little bit of the way I think about stuff during markets like this.
But I mean, you look at the rally in the SP500 today, like what have we recaptured?
Nothing. Not the 200 day, you know, not the 9 EMA um nothing nothing is recaptured you know and you look at the
queues same thing what have we recaptured nothing we got at the highs of today we got rejected at
the 9 EMA and the 200 so until you see that change and by by that change what I mean is
you recapture the moving averages and you hold above them you don't just recapture them for one
session you recapture them you hold above them. You don't just recapture them for one session. You recapture them and you hold above them for multiple sessions.
That's what happened in late April of last year and early May of last year.
That's when I started buying stocks.
And so if we see that sort of recovery in markets, again, I will start buying stocks again.
But if we don't, I'm going to remain not defensive because I'm not defensive.
I'm more than 100% long on the market, but I will remain in the positions that I currently
have until that changes. So yeah, I'm just waiting for that to happen.
We did just get the market close
We did just get the market close.
So market is done for the day
Appreciate the run through there
No real earnings coming up
After the close
I will be keeping a look on the newswire
See what else we're getting
Took me a second to find it
I'm surprised you're saying
You're still 100% long
I would think it would be closer to like 90%.
I was like 5% cash last week.
And then I exercised VIAVI calls and Amcor calls.
I did see VIAVI was on the 52-week high list today.
And I feel like, did it just become a large cap?
Was it not over 10 billion market cap?
8.6.
Interesting. I guess this list just kind of, of you know adds in some sprinkles below but this was the first time i feel like i
saw viavi on there kratos when i bought it it was like a when i bought it it was a third of this
right it was the 13 when i bought it so it was a much smaller market cap but yeah i mean viavi is
executed amazingly and um they are frankly the leader
now in in network testing they've integrated the spear and acquisition so well um you get a little
bit of photonics exposure through them as well because they're network testing those photon
photonics networks um photonics actually mean what is photonics what do you mean what does it
what is it like what is photonics in this stuff mean what does it mean what is it like what is photonics in this
stuff like what is it doing in the mic semiconductor supply chain is like the ones printing it on top
of the chip like actually printing on the chips like it's it's using it's detecting light right
so you it's the application of light to move data more quickly as opposed to using like
traditional internet infrastructure that's essentially what photonics is um so i
mean we can do like a whole if i don't want to do it now because all the stocks have gapped up but
we could do like a little session on it i have a buddy of mine who's um been in the photonics
industry for 12 years i actually traded these names um and i can bring them on here if you
guys are interested in that i mean yeah i think that'd be good because I can just keep saying, I know what I can ask me a surface level photonics question,
but I have no idea what I'm talking about.
I mean, you know what a great way to do is just to talk to your LLM.
It'll explain it to you.
There's a lot of great YouTube videos too.
Expect a lot of great low level content across the board.
There's a great YouTube video.
There's a great YouTube video, I think, from IP Exchange that explains it.
And there's quite a few people talking about it now,
now that it's become a big thing.
But, yeah, I have a buddy who's an expert on the industry we can bring on.
I don't want to consider myself an expert on the industry.
I'm not.
But I have a buddy we can bring on.
I'll message him right now, actually, and see if he can come on at some point.
I don't want to, like, bring him on after this whole trade is already,
because all these stocks are up hundreds and hundreds of percent.
But yeah, I mean, I talked about these back in January of 25 and traded them back then.
Obviously, did not hold them as long as I would have liked to.
But yeah, I mean, they've done very well.
They're really the leading sector this year.
If you look at performance across the photonics basket this year versus the rest of the market, they are the leading sector this year by far.
But look, I think right now you're in a market where you can't put too much expectation on the front end of anything you're doing.
And if you do, you're going to be caught in this situation
where you're going to be constantly worried about the next headline.
And I don't want to put myself in that situation.
So I'm remaining pretty patient here.
I mean, market just closed here today.
I had, what, one, two, three, 13 out of 16 positions green into the close,
which isn't bad.
So a nice day for the portfolio, but I wouldn't be surprised if tomorrow's red or if Friday's red.
You know, we need follow through here.
That's what's required.
A green day is nice to see.
Bounces are nice to see.
All this stuff is cool.
I mean, it makes people happy to see green on their screens when stuff's chopping.
But you need follow through on the indexes.
That is what is required to bottom.
And we haven't seen that yet at all
in any way, shape or form, not even a little bit.
Like I wish we'd had a couple of days
where I could point to in the last few weeks
and be like, look, that's what we're looking for.
But we haven't.
I mean, anybody could do this.
Pull up the, and even if you're a new trader, you can do this.
Pull up the S&P 500, pull up the Qs, turn on your moving averages,
turn on your 9 and 21 EMAs, turn on your 150 and 200 simple moving averages,
and look, and just look at it, and tell me what you see.
And what you'll see is you'll see action that is constantly pushing up into the moving averages and being rejected at the moving averages.
That is like the most simple out of a textbook indication of price, right?
Like if you were to look at that in like a technical analysis textbook, they'd be like, hey, this is bearish action.
That's what we're in right now. And so. Yeah, you can't you can't just sit around and be like, well, I don't I don't like what's happening in the geopolitical environment, but I don't see this lasting very long.
So I'm just going to buy stocks like that's not a winning strategy. You let the market prove
to you when it's no longer concerned about what's happening. How do you know when the market's no
longer concerned about what's happening? When the indexes find themselves comfortable above
the moving averages. A lot of people look at moving averages and they go, oh, well, this is
just some sort of stupid line drawing on a chart.
No, that's not what it is.
What moving averages are, they're indicating to you average price over a period.
And when stocks are trading above their moving averages, what the market is telling you is that the incremental buyer is willing to pay a higher price. That's what
being above a moving average means. Why is that a good thing? Because that shows excitement from
the buyers in the market. When stocks are trading below their moving averages, what does that
indicate? It indicates to you that the incremental buyer is not willing
to pay a higher price. And that's when you should be cautious. It's really that simple.
Like people overcomplicate technical analysis all the time. I see people doing like all sorts of
crazy Bollinger band analysis and this and that. I have never found any of that to be necessary.
I think if you pull up a chart, you pull up the volume,
you pull up the moving averages, and you just look at it,
you can get a pretty good idea of what's going on without knowing anything about technical analysis.
And right now, you're in an environment
where the markets are not able to get back
above the moving averages, not yet.
And so until that changes,
I don't see why you
would you would have a shift in your bias a lot of people I see on Twitter
are really overthinking things people are writing long ass novels about you
know what how they feel about the war or what might happen or how they see it
ending yada yada yada I mean cool. If that's entertaining to you,
go for it. If you want to do that for entertainment or for, I don't know,
speculation or whatever, sure. I mean, I guess there's no problem with it. Is it actionable?
No. I mean, what's going to tell you when the environment is actionable is when the index's structure is repaired.
Period. End of story.
That's just how, at least in my view, that's how it works.
For the record, I am keeping an eye on news wires.
I am not seeing literally any news in after hours.
Sam, I do see you're up here i don't know if you have any thoughts on uh on what stock talk's been talking about a little bit there or
just anything you want to throw into the mix yeah i mean i i've planted myself in a few good stocks
uh lately um some of them overlap with stock talk i did join that ird and play uh with them
good good lord. Has been
a great performer. It's actually really funny
because people don't see something
perform too well.
They end up cutting it and then they jump back in
after it performs well and just a lot of back and
forth. But you really have
to know what you're on but also
look at the relative outperformance in a lot of positions.
I mean, I got in a Marvel
around 90 bucks and it was like chopping around there for a while uh thing is uh coming up to
hopefully test 100 uh made a new high past its uh post earnings high so this one's at this one's
outperformed pretty well it's up about seven percent today um a lot of the photonics stocks
are actually up today uh which is really good not all of them but a lot of them were up actually
and there is some exposure to that with marvel, but a lot of them were up actually.
And there is some exposure to that with Marvel technology.
I mean, most of what they do actually is in networking, as well as co-designing chips
for Amazon Tranium.
There's no confirmation they're actually involved in Tranium 4, but I have a pretty good sense
that they are.
Like they never actually mentioned exclusively, either as AWS, but they do co-develop and co-design chips for, um, for Meta from Microsoft and
a few other smaller players, but still bullish on Marvel technology.
The valuation isn't too demanding either.
So I'm not really too worried about its valuation.
Um, I did start a swing on Micron today.
Uh, obviously Micron today.
Obviously, Micron is down a lot along with all the other memory stocks because of the Google Turbo quants that came out.
It's basically saying that their reliance on memory is not as crucial anymore.
And that would probably give people a little bit of a little bit of a scare that, hey,
maybe we peaked out in this memory cycle.
For me, though, this is more of a little bit of a scare that hey maybe we peaked out in this memory cycle um for me though this is more of a swing trade so if we do continue to drift lower
both the 50 EMA then I'm probably gonna close the position um also opened up a swing on Circle
yesterday on the back of the news that it was down it was down a good amount in the last few
days but uh most of it was the scare that the clarity act is not going to include yields for
stable coins uh which is which was a beneficiary for Coinbase as far as being custodian for a lot of stable coins, in addition to Circle, which is the creator of USDC or U.S. digital currency.
in the long-term fundamentals when it comes to stable coins that they're going to be
basically the backing for payment systems with instant settlement eventually going to replace
wires internationally and domestically as well it's obviously not going to happen overnight
but if stable coins are used for that and i do think that usdc is going to be the pick for that
one um then it's likely going to have a lot of tailwinds ahead of it. So one thing also to look at relative outperformance here.
I mean, Circle is basically, it was double.
It was more than double since crypto bottomed,
but it's still outperforming crypto significantly.
And crypto, Bitcoin, and Ethereum have been holding up pretty nicely
ever since they bottomed around 60K.
Just a few weeks ago before, of course, the Trump put came in,
we saw ES and futures can i actually i want to ask stock talk on uh on stable coins not specifically about stocks and
this or whatever because i don't you know but um i what i do want to know is your just general
thoughts on the technologies that's something like you're looking at as a possible catalyst
at some point for certain industries like i am looking at i am looking at tokenization okay not stable specifically but i am looking at tokenization yeah i don't think
i spent a lot of this weekend actually looking at um
some research that one of my buddies sent me on on tokenization and I've been thinking about it for several months, but
the biggest problem I'm having is I can't
find a proxy.
BMNR.
Yeah, no.
That's not going to be there.
I won't make another joke like that.
He just wants that pump.
He wants that stock talk pump.
No, not BMNR for me.
I can't find a reasonably valued proxy to trade it.
You know, like, I do think that everything will be tokenized in the next decade or so.
Like everything.
Stocks, maybe even real estate, luxury items like watches.
Yeah, I think that will happen.
I just need to find a way to play it.
I haven't found one yet.
I looked at a bunch of stocks this weekend related to that,
but they were all just basically shitcos or very overpriced or both.
So, yeah.
I just haven't been able to find a name that I like in order to
express that trade.
But yeah, I do think tokenization is a real
technology that is going to offer real benefits. And I think it's probably pretty inescapable in terms of it spreading to other multiple industries, not just finance, but multiple industries. So I'm bullish on tokenization, I guess you could say,
from that perspective, but I don't have any exposure to it
because I can't find a good way to get exposure.
So until I figure that out, I won't have any, to be simple.
That's fair.
Robinhood is a little exposure there but i know it's
it's not as pure play as the normal one would be
but um sam i cut you off there you can continue i just i honestly thought that we would actually
get an interesting answer there i know stock talk has had some crypto beefs in the past but
stable coins tokenization this whole thing is
a different wave of it. It's the actual
underlying tech versus
these random coins, which I happen to
believe is going to lead to
all these companies across
the economy actually getting incrementally
more efficient and being a pretty good thing.
I do think there will be some winners off of this.
Yeah. Somebody in my chat just mentioned too, he's like, we have and it being a pretty good thing. And I do think there will be some winners off of this. So, yeah.
Yeah, somebody in my chat just mentioned too,
he's like, we have Robinhood for tokenization,
which is true.
That is a bit of a proxy to it,
but it's not as much of a direct exposure as I would like.
I want something more pure play,
but again, I don't know what that will or could be.
So, let's see.
I'm actually like, listen, you hate it,
but BMNR is a pure play there.
He'll never do it.
I get it.
No, no, no.
BMNR is just a meme stop.
It's not a pure play on tokenization at all.
I would not characterize it that way. BMNR is a Tom Lee stop. It's not a pure play on tokenization at all. I would not characterize it that way.
BMNR is a Tom Lee pump-a-dump, in my opinion.
I mean, they're just buying Ethereum, but I hear you. Yeah, I know, but then why don't you just buy Ethereum?
Fair.
I mean, listen, you can't come up with that argument, but I mean...
I mean, look, BMNR...
The idea is that Tom...
But listen, that Tom Lee pump gives him an advantage to get ahead of the game,
and you can own a piece of that.
Yeah, but look, BMNR is sitting at the 200-day moving average.
So...
It's insane. It's gone well.
It doesn't look...
No, I'm saying it doesn't look terrible down here.
If you really want to be a bottom feeder with with it it doesn't look terrible down here sitting above
sitting right on 100 and 200 day confluence um you know maybe it has bottomed out but i
look i'm not i'm not saying whether it'll go up or down or sideways um
you know it's it's more about whether you can find something that's an actual narrative exposure or not.
And I don't like any of these sort of vehicles where other people are buying an asset for you, even if they're levering up on it or providing you like with extra leverage via weird mechanisms.
I don't like any of those stocks. I just think
they're just like, I don't know,
not my style.
Yeah, I'm not a fan of BMR
or MSTR or any of that shit.
You know, Planet Labs does hurt
a little bit. I won't lie.
It does hurt?
For anyone who doesn't know I bought yeah well I bought
Planet Labs in 2025 and 2022 average cost like five six dollars five dollars and then I sold it
after watching it like go down to one two dollars I sold it at like ten dollars in September so I
made money from it but watching that forty dollars now is an interesting feeling yeah I mean I it was
just cuz I held it for so long.
It was kind of just a meme.
In 22, when you bought it, you bought it
because I did the whole speech
and thesis on it.
But yeah, I mean, I owned it
back then too in huge size,
but I got taken out of it. So yeah, I mean, it hurts
for me too, in theory.
But I mean, look,
I've had plenty of stocks that I've sold too early or sold before they ran or, you know.
But that one was different, honestly.
That's more one.
You would never hold something that went from 10 to 5 to 1.
Like, Planet Labs was in the doldrums.
Any good person would have sold that.
It's more like when it was coming back the other side, maybe it's a relook at it after.
But you would have never held that to the downside that was yeah i wouldn't if it
was a bigger holding for me i probably would have yeah i wouldn't have held and a lot of times i can
like make myself um i can make myself look back at stocks and be like i wouldn't have bought it
anyway or i wouldn't have held it anyway and or I wouldn't have held it anyway. And that's pretty comforting.
When I know that,
I look at a stock that maybe doubled after I sold it,
a lot of times I'll say,
well, I wouldn't have held it through that rally anyway.
And that's pretty comforting usually to say,
okay, look, yeah, sure, I missed out on some upside,
but I wouldn't have held it anyway.
That makes me feel better about those types of situations. So yeah.
Interesting, but yeah.
All right, Sam, let's come back over to you. Apologize.
Are we talking about the stablecoin stuff?
No, you can keep moving on,
but you can share your thoughts on that.
I mean, as far as the market goes,
it's...
I'm not aggressively trying to buy call options
or anything over here
because I already gave some back
early this year
to reduce exposure
with the options.
Things are a little bit more stable now in the portfolio now that it mostly shares.
But other than that, I mean, it is narrowed leadership in the market.
And a lot of that is not in software.
The software stocks continue to be sold off.
Microsoft made a new 52-week low today.
Can you believe that?
It's lower than where it was trading after Liberation Day.
Actually hold on, let me just confirm that one real quick.
I'm pretty sure it is.
No, it's not in a 52 week low,
but it is a new low since Liberation Day.
The low on Microsoft was on the Monday
after Liberation Day at 344.
And now the market's at all time high.
It's not 23% away from all time highs.
And now you have a once $4 trillion company
that's now about 60% of its market cap, 65% of its market cap.
The market thinks software is dead.
And ironically, it seems to think that seed-based licensing is dead.
That's where a lot of this sell-off is actually coming from.
If you look at other stocks that are more consumption-based, it is still an impact.
Overall, the software fear that software is dead, but not as dramatic an impact.
There were two stocks that I mentioned on the stream today that I have not been entirely
bullish on at all for the last,
probably like the last year, is Workday and Atlassian Team. The reason why these two are
is because these two pieces of software already have a lot of enterprise exposure. So other than
just increasing their prices, they can't really improve the top line that dramatically. They're
already mature companies. They've been around for a long time. Team, or last thing, is it even profitable? Like you would think that after
this much time, there'll be a profitable company, but maybe it's due to management. Maybe it's due
to the way the finances are done. Like they're still not there yet. They already do have a lot
of the Fortune 500 companies, but most importantly, these two companies are seat-based licensing.
So layoffs, you've been saying across
the board with a lot of tech companies, a lot of large companies. And if you reduce the amount
of headcount, that means you're reducing the amount of licenses you need for these tools.
Also, Alassian is mostly focused on ITSM as well as project management. Like, why can't you create
something like that in-house?
I'm not saying that a meta or a Microsoft...
You see the Claude post that they put out yesterday
went like 78 billion views on X.
You saw that one?
Well, that's pretty sus
because there are a lot of big accounts
that are trying to push that one.
So they definitely have a lot of partnerships.
You think?
Yeah, dude.
Did you not see that Katy Perry tweet a month ago
where it was like,
oh, you should sign up for this plan.
There's definitely, I'm not going to argue with that,
sponsorships with sponsorships, but I think there's a prerogative to boost.
I'm going to be fully transparent with you.
I don't think that's the case for this.
I think that is a natural A70.
I could be totally wrong.
I'm not saying that that's not the reason why.
It certainly has a reason why, right?
Like that's where my argument comes in is that there is an instilling fear with software.
And it's mostly tied to the premium valuations they've had for the last 10 plus years, right?
Historically speaking, software stocks have been trading at a massive premium.
That's because they provide a lot of metrics to provide that forward guidance and forward
outlook on terms of where their profitability
and where the revenue is going to come from. Because a lot of their clients do sign contracts
five years, four years, three years, whatever it is. And what they've been doing in the last
couple of years, we're signing longer term contracts to be able to lock in lower rates.
But now some of them might even cancel the contracts or some of them don't even need
to renew them because they do have contracts coming later on. And the ones who do need to renew them
are going to probably decrease the amount of headcount they have in their contracts or negotiate
the terms. Also, on top of that, I think the private credit issue you're seeing in the background
is a little bit of a backdrop, like a double-edged sword or domino effect with these software
companies. There's a lot of private credit companies that did invest in a lot of these software companies.
And now that their valuations have compressed significantly,
it's putting some of those private credit companies at risk
because now you have a much smaller valuation
for one that they expected to be a lot larger.
And maybe they're even hedging their bets
as far as their debt that they're issuing to these software companies, right? So there's obviously a lot more, and maybe they're even hedging their bets as far as their debt that they're
issuing to these software companies, right?
So there's obviously a lot more in a macro perspective that's into play here, but I
certainly don't think this software is going to be killed by AI theme is helping at all.
Like if it's anything, it's probably going to, it's amplifying it, which is the reason
why you're seeing it make lower lows, even on a relative performance basis.
IGB, it's down 50 basis points today,
while the Qs are at 50 basis points,
and stocks is up 1.24% today.
The alpha you've been seeing in the last three months
is mostly with semiconductors.
So what I've been doing, I haven't been buying software stocks.
I've been buying mostly things that are involved
in the semiconductor supply chain.
If you look at the outperformance of Amcor on semiconductor,
Marvell technology, and a few other semiconductors, these are massively outperforming
software stocks by a wide margin. So when I see something like that happening, my first thought
is like, oh, let me go buy the dip and service now and think this is the bottom. How do you even
know that's the bottom? And even if you did catch the bottom, right? So what if it comes back up and
then gets rejected like it just did the other week, right? So it's better to just be a bit more patient with falling knives here, right? So if
I'm going to do a swing or if I'm going to take a stab at something, it's going to be something
that's showing relative outperformance, not something that's falling like a knife through
all the moving averages, trading significantly below all of its moving averages. It's even more
like something that's maybe finding support on its 9 EMA or something, or maybe better yet, a 9 or 21 EMA or something like that, or something that's positive year to
date at least, but something that's significantly red year to date. I don't even know if I want to
buy anything like that because if the market falls and it's not part of a secular theme,
it's probably just going to fall more or significantly more if the market continues
to fall. So I think that's probably just the name of the game as it is today,
what it seems like in the stock market. And that's why it's kind of hesitant for me to
get a little degenerate with some of the things that I might be doing. Like obviously last year
since April, everything was going up. Today, not so much. In fact, a lot of retail favorite stocks are getting sold off and have already sold off.
EOS technology, there are so many people that are tweeting about this.
And I'm not going to disagree with this mode.
I'm not going to disagree with the theme here with battery technology.
This is more of a...
Well, I guess the fact that it's not profitable at all is probably an issue here, too, especially in a market that's declining.
But I think this dropped pretty significantly due to a management issue.
But no one could have saw that coming.
Or maybe some people did. But look where it is now.
Like this thing was like 20 bucks like a few months ago.
Then now it's back here at five bucks and maybe it might come back again.
But this is one of those things where you've got to kind of be careful what you long and what you do it in size, especially when it comes to companies that are trading at egregious
valuations.
You know, I think there's a lot of people who bought Rocket Lab in the $4 range, teens
range, maybe in the $30 range, and they're sitting on a mountain of gains, right?
So look, it's up 10% today.
That's great.
People bought ASTS when it was in the $20, $30 range.
It's great. But people who are buying from here, it's like,% today. That's great. People bought ASTS when it was in the $20, $30 range. It's great.
But people who are buying from here, it's like, what's kind of your upside here, right?
Maybe it might still going up, but it still has a lot more room to fall if we continue
to see weakness in the market, right?
So there's obviously other space plays you can do besides these ones that are a lot more
attractive valuations.
But a lot of the stocks that were retail favorites, like a lot of them getting smacked.
And I think one of them, which is actually affecting me a lot as well is Robinhood.
That one was 150 bucks a few months ago.
And I think a lot of that had to do a crypto pulling back a little bit, reduced options
activity, reduced crypto activity as well is going to obviously dramatically impact their top lines and collect a lot of fees on that as far as the spread on it, too.
That's going to reduce the amount of acceleration and growth that we've been seeing in Robin
Hood.
And I think a lot of the market front ran that.
But this platform is one of a kind.
So I'll continue to hold that one.
But if you take a look at something like Webull, which was kind of a favor for a while, that's
not 50% from where it was a couple months ago, right?
So I think it's better to know what you own, how the entire sector is performing for that,
and kind of drill down from bottom up versus going top down, right?
So if you're seeing an outperformance in XLE, take a look at those oil stocks over there.
See which one is trading at an attractive valuation and maybe buy that one and hold it if it bounces off a
significant moving average or something. But until then, you could even DCA into XLE or something.
XLE is up like 60% year-to-date or something crazy, while XLF is down like 20% year-to-date
or some crazy amounts. I think I just got a post from Axios, something Axios saying,
White House plays down reports that Iran rejected Trump peace proposals. So there's definitely a
lot of back and forth here. One thing I did notice today is that the Araqshe, who's the
Minister of Foreign Affairs for Iran, he did basically confirm that we are talking to mediators
in terms of trying to come up with
a peace deal. But he also did signify that this does not mean we're negotiating.
So it just this really reminds me of last year coming out of Liberation Day, where China was
saying like, no, we're not talking to the US. We're not talking to the US. And then on the
other side, Trump and the White House were saying, hey, we're talking to China, we're coming with a
good deal. And then eventually a few weeks later, we have a deal with China and the market rips
off that.
I would say that if we're going to speculate as far as what's happening, it's probably
better to look at the price reaction to these headlines versus like trying to come up with
a thesis as far as like the war is going to end like next week.
Because we don't know who's telling the truth.
We don't know how much truth
there is to what they're saying whether it's like 50 true or not and i'm not going to sit here and
try to guess what if what is true and what's not but i'm looking looking more at the reaction to
these headlines right so i think that i think the reaction we're seeing to these talks back and
forth is starting to becoming more muted it It is moving the markets. Like you saw yesterday where Trump said he's coming up a deal with Iran.
The war could end soon.
And then today, this morning, you saw that it could end as early as this weekend.
Vance might be going to Pakistan for talks, whatever.
And then you saw later on that Araqchi basically said that we are not negotiating right now,
but there are talks happening between the U.S. and mediators.
You know, it's having more of a muted effect.
And we're probably going to find some direction, maybe sometime soon. But still, like the price
action just does not say, look, we're going back to new all time highs. Like I don't, I don't know
how anyone could look at the market and think that right now. Like every moving average, except for
the 200 day moving average has already curled down. And you already have the 9 EMA trading below
the 21 EMA. You have the 50 EMA trading below the 21 EMA.
You have the 50 EMA curling down already. And the weekly chart is starting to look pretty bad too.
Actually, it already is looking bad. All the moving averages and EMAs are curling down on the 50,
sorry, on the weekly chart. On the monthly chart, they already have two. And if I'm looking at the
queues, that's more prevailing. For SPY, it's starting to become more prevalent now. So like, maybe this is not the time
to be taking shots with options to the upside.
You know, maybe it's like,
kind of like, let's wait and see
what's going to happen now.
And you don't need to make a move
with the full portfolio every day.
And I also don't think it's a time to be like,
well, for myself,
but I also don't think it's a time to be like,
let me be at 100% cash right now. Because you don't know if this thing's going to come back.
Because at the back of all of everything that's happening, the price action is telling you to be
scared. The war is telling you to be scared. But I fail to see how this is going to dramatically
impact what's been pulling up the market for the last three years with AI. Like, long term wise,
it's not stopping.
The investments are continuing. They're starting to see a lot of production with that.
Microsoft, Google, Amazon, Meta, OpenAI, Anthropic continue to make new releases that
shows that work efficiency is starting to increase. I don't think we're going to have
a recession. It's kind of hard to say that right now, but the probability is certain going up.
And I think that probability is also coming up under reflection that they're starting to price
in rate hikes for next year. And I'm sure that those probabilities will come down,
that there'll be more probability we're going to get rate cuts as soon as oil comes back to
reasonable levels in like the 70 range. And as soon as oil volatility starts to dampen,
which is what you're starting to see, you're starting to see the OVX, which is a VIX for oil starting to come down.
Right? So that's really what you want to see when instead of seeing like oil gap up like 20%
on a random day, you want to see the OVX or the oil VIX come down because the market reacts more
to the speed of change or to the rate of change
more than anything, right?
So if you look at the move index, which is the VIX for bonds, that one has been trending
So that makes people a little more feel for that.
But if that starts to come down, that'll be good.
Same thing with the VIX as well.
The VIX is starting to compress a little bit.
You're not seeing the VIX at like 38, 40 or anything right now.
So maybe, you know, maybe things are coming together, but the VIX is still in a bullish
trend.
So you got to keep an eye on that one too, right?
There's a lot of things to look at this, or you can just ignore the noise and not trade
at all, right?
So one or the other.
But I'm just saying for me, these are things that I look at if I want to execute some short
term trades to know that the coast is clear.
Until then, you want to be simple.
20-day moving average, baby.
All right, appreciate you, Sam.
Appreciate you for that run through there.
He was talking a little bit about Robinhood stock talk,
and I'm looking at it here at 70. I'm thinking if I'm getting a little interested here again, do you have a price or anything you're watching on Robinhood? that would benefit them i'd imagine not only would it help them get to more markets around the world within stocks but also get into more markets types of financial markets which you know
they're trying to get into private markets and other stuff so i mean it does seem like a uh
i'm intrigued i'm curious on if you have any thoughts on this one if there's a price or
something or along you're watching it's not a particular price I'm watching.
I'll probably buy more of it in the next market crash,
but I'm not going to buy more of it here.
I own it at $19.
I'm not going to buy it at $75.
One thing about price is that price is relative.
If it's at $40, are we having the same thoughts there?
I'd buy it at like a $25 forward, yeah.
That'd be something like around 40, 35, 40 bucks.
What people don't realize with stocks, and I've noticed this,
and it's actually shocking to me because I see this with experienced people
as well as inexperienced people, is that if somebody will like a stock,
I don't know, let's just say Robinhood. Okay. And you buy it at whatever. I never owned
equity until the beginning of last year. I just had calls. So I had $15 and $20 calls
that expired in January of last year. And once those came up for expiry, the stock was up so
much, they were up like a thousand percent. And so I sold a lot of them and exercised the rest.
And that made me an equity holder last year.
I had more 20 calls than 15 calls.
So the cost basis ended up being closer to 20.
So it ended up being 1974 or whatever it is.
And then I was in a position to hold the stock because I had such a deep cost-based advantage.
So I held it all through last year,
did very well last year.
But put yourself in that situation.
Let's say you own a stock like that,
Robinhood or anything else,
let's say at 15 bucks or 16 bucks or 20 bucks or whatever.
And then the stock goes up a lot.
Okay, let's say it triples.
And then something bad happens.
Let's say like a bad earnings report.
And then the stock goes down 10%,
let's say on the earnings report,
or maybe even let's say 15%.
A lot of people will just buy it there.
Okay, because they'll be like, I like the stock.
It's down on earnings.
I'm going to buy the stock.
I don't understand that philosophy.
Markets correct all the time.
They crash all the time too.
They crash every five to six years. They correct every year.
There's a 10% correction in most years. Many years, there's multiple 10% corrections.
Like last year, we got multiple. In those moments, all of your favorite stocks are going to sell.
going to sell. That's when you should buy them. Because the multiples will compress with the
That's when you should buy them.
rest of the market. And multiple compression is an elevator down. Valuations are relative.
And when you look at what is cheap in a given market, a lot of times you're anchoring that cheapness relatively.
You find a stock and you go, oh, this stock's trading at a 22 PE.
First of all, 22 PE, objectively speaking, is not just automatically cheap, really depends
on a number of factors, how quickly the company is growing, how profitable they are, yada,
yada, yada.
And then you see the market correct, and then that stock's trading at a 15p,
and all of its peers that you thought were expensive, that were maybe better stocks, that were trading at 35 or 40ps, are now trading at 20 or 25ps.
What's the better buy in that scenario?
Well, it just depends on what you want to own. But the point that I'm making is that
there are moments in the market all the time where almost everything sells.
And if there's stocks that you really want to own that have gone up three or 400% from your entry
and you want more of them, I do not see the logic in just buying
regular old dips on those stocks. Yet it is such a common thing to do, especially from self-proclaimed
investors who say, I'm just going to DCA into the stock. That's fine. I mean, I don't DCA,
but that's fine if that's your MO.
I just think the risk reward, the compounding reward is much better when you buy those stocks during corrections, during market corrections.
Not during corrections for the individual stock, but during market corrections. So for legacy positions like Robinhood, I'm not going to buy it just because it's acting weak against the market over the last several weeks or that it's down 20% from the highs.
I'm going to wait until the market either crashes or has a significant correction.
Like one of the stocks I regretted not buying more of last year at the beginning of – in the April correction of last year was Robinhood because it fell to like 38. And in hindsight, I wish I would have bought it there. Now,
on the next time that happens, I won't miss that opportunity. But what I will say is that
everyone has a limited amount of capital. No matter how much capital you have, you could have
a billion dollars or a million dollars or a thousand dollars. Everyone has a limited amount of capital. No matter how much capital you have, you could have a billion dollars or a million dollars or a thousand dollars. Everyone has a limited amount of capital. Even if
you have margin, you still have a limited amount of margin. So
deploying that capital efficiently and smartly is the whole game, really.
Deploying it at the right times is the whole game.
And yeah, that's kind of my explanation of why I haven't bought any more Robinhood
here, even though I think the valuation is much more reasonable than it has been in months,
many months. I think it trades at a 35 forward right now and 33 trailing or something like
that. But yeah, I'll wait for a market crash to buy a name like that. If there's a name I'm up hundreds of percent on,
like I got this question about Nebius several weeks ago
when people were like, oh, you really like the Nebius news.
Why don't you buy more?
And I'm like, because I own it at 23.
You want me to buy more at 120?
Like I would have to really, really be like floored
by something that was happening
in order to buy something five times higher from
where I bought. I'd have to be like, like Nebius would have to sign a hundred billion dollar
contract or something for me to do that. So yeah, I like that stock a lot still. I like Robinhood a
lot still. I like a lot of the recent news for Nebius, but even then i'm not going to buy it at 120 when i know in a market
correction it could fall a lot lower than that and so yeah i like to accumulate positions
on the recovery following a market correction that is what i like to do i'm not saying that you
this is what you have to do,
or if you do it some other way, or if you DCA that you're wrong and stupid. That's not what
I'm saying. I'm telling you what I do. I accumulate stocks after a significant market correction
on the recovery from that correction. Like the example that I brought up last year,
where we had a crash. April was a crash, right?
We fell 20% from the highs.
And then on the recovery from that crash into May, I bought a lot of stocks.
I bought Nebius at 23.
I bought LEU at 96.
I bought, I accumulated more Kratos in the $25 to $30 range.
I bought, I can't remember everything I bought, but I bought a lot of stuff.
And almost all those stocks bought a lot of stuff.
And almost all those stocks went up hundreds of percent through the rest of the year.
So yeah, I mean, that's what I do.
I wait for a market correction or a crash, preferably a crash.
And then on the recovery from that crash or correction, I buy stocks that I want to own.
And that gives me cost-based advantages.
That allows me to sit through volatility.
It also gives me rapid compounded returns on the recovery.
Because as we all know, when markets recover, stocks go up a lot very quickly.
And so, yeah, that's the way I handled it buying.
I don't buy dips when I'm like, oh, great report. But my stock is down 10%, but I own it five times lower. So I'm going to buy it here. No, like I don't do that. So yeah, that's my simple explanation with Robin. I like Robinhood a lot. I think the valuation is more reasonable than ever, but I own it at a full, you know, four times less than what the current price is. I'm not going to buy it here.
I hear you. I hear you.
I do feel like, I wonder if the story's a little different with the time that you've owned Robinhood and Nebius,
and maybe Robinhood would have had the chance to grow,
but I imagine that's not at a conversation right now,
maybe in two, three years, maybe that price just,
that bar is higher.
But I mean, obviously, you came in, it's a 25X sales.
You have the number.
You have the valuation metric in there.
I feel like also a lot of times, myself included, anchored a price as opposed to the valuation
aspect of it.
And sometimes when the E comes down, when the piece stays the same, the numbers can
go up and get more expensive.
There are kind of two numbers to it.
It's not just the price one.
But overall numbers have been pretty solid.
Yeah, they've been great.
Look, they're executing well.
It's a good company.
And it's not very expensive here.
Like, if you're somebody that doesn't own Robino,
do I think it's a terrible buy here?
Well, right this moment, it's not the greatest buy
because it's pinned under all the daily moving averages.
I think you should allow it to find some support,
although you could make the argument that around $70,
it has reinforced quite a bit of support over the last month or so.
It is sitting at the 100-week moving average for what it's worth.
But it's a reasonably priced stock.
You don't own it.
I'm not saying you shouldn't go and buy it.
I'm saying from my perspective, with my cost basis,
one quick thing I will say is that on price anchoring,
I price anchor too, okay?
And there have been moments where price anchoring
has served me poorly, where I price anchored,
I wanted to accumulate more,
and then the stock ended up just taking off in front of me, right?
There's times when I look at those scenarios and I go, oh, you know what? I should have bought more. However, I would say
on balance over like, you know, this is going to be my 15th year trading. On balance, over the course of those 15 years, I have been far better served from price anchoring
than all of the bad shit that's come from it. So it has saved me a lot more than it's hurt me.
The idea of price anchoring and saying, look, look, I bought the stock at 23. I'm not buying
more at 100. Are there times when the stock goes to 200 and I go,
fuck, I should have bought more than 100? Sure. But there's a lot more times when the stock falls
from 100 back to 50 or back to 40. And saving myself from that and not accumulating the stock
after it's 5X in a year, that served me very well. And so I don't betray that idea of price anchoring. I don't
think price anchoring is necessarily a bad thing. Druckenmiller in that interview that I've talked
to you guys about a few times, the recent one he did with Morgan Stanley, he talks about this. He
talks about the fact that he price anchors too. He talks about price anchoring with NVIDIA when he
bought NVIDIA and sold it too early. And he's like, look, I price anchored and I do that sometimes and yada, yada, yada.
But I'm sure even if you ask Druck, he would say, yeah, I price anchor for a reason, right?
People don't become price anchors, if you will, by incident.
You become a price anchor because you see stocks behave that way.
Right?
You buy a stock really low.
You know, okay, let's say before you become a price anchor, you buy a stock one day at 15, it goes to 50.
You buy a bunch more at 50 because you love the way they're executing.
And then in a market correction, it falls back to 20.
That's a pretty fast way to become a price anchor because you get
bruised by that, right? You dump a bunch of money into the stock at 50 a share. How many more shares
could you bought at 20 a share? The answer is more than twice as many, right? And once you see that
dynamic happen enough in enough markets, it turns you into somebody that price anchors.
And in hindsight, it's easy to say, you watch a stock go up more and more and more and say, well,
I shouldn't have price anchored. But in hindsight, it's also easy to go look at a stock during a
market correction and say, wow, I'm glad I did. And so, yeah, I don't mind being a price anchor.
I know I am. Like, I'm not cognizant of it. I'm very conscious of the idea that I do price anchor, but I know why I do. I know why I do because I've,
I've been through those cycles and I've been through market crashes and corrections where
I'm like, why the hell three months ago was I buying this thing at 70 a share and now we're
in a market crash or in a bear market and the stock is at 20 a share. Like why, why did I do that? You know, because there's
this like, one of the guiding principles of markets is knowing that a crash is always coming.
You have to operate with that belief. There's no, there's never going to be a market where
the market goes up for 20 years and never crashes. That will never, ever, ever happen.
So when you're buying a stock higher and higher and higher and you're calling it DCA-ing,
I'm DCA-ing, don't worry, I'm just DCA-ing.
This is what I was taught to do by Warren Buffett, which by the way, Warren Buffett doesn't do that.
I don't know if anyone's ever followed Warren Buffett's portfolio updates or Druckenmiller's portfolio updates
or Peter Lynch's portfolio updates.
They're not buying a stock at 25 than buying more at 50 and 70 and 90 and 100. They
don't do that. So I don't know where this belief came from where people think that that's what
these all-time investors are doing. They're not doing that, just to be clear. But people think
they are. And so they do this and they buy through a whole bull cycle. They buy the stock higher and
higher and higher. I mean, ask people how that worked out with these software names, right?
Imagine if you accumulated
some of these software names
for the last three years
at higher and higher and higher prices.
You feel like shit now, probably.
And because your perception was
that the stock that you loved
that was executing well was invincible.
But nothing is invincible to multiple compression.
The second a narrative flips, you're cooked.
The multiple that you thought was cheap at a 60p or 70p goes down to a 30p.
And you're like, what happened?
Well, nothing needs to happen for that to happen.
A narrative needs to shift.
That's it.
That's it.
A little bit of hype needs to happen for that to happen. A narrative needs to shift. That's it. That's it.
A little bit of hype needs to come out.
And if a little bit of hype comes out, you'd be astonished at what could happen to a stock.
Stocks can drop 50% in the blink of an eye if the narrative changes.
You know?
And so I'm just not a buyer into this philosophy of like, oh, you like a stock?
You should just buy it all the time.
Buy it. Every earnings report, it goes down. Buy more, buy more, buy more, buy more. I just don't operate that way. And I'll never understand the philosophy of operating that way, no matter how
much people try to convince me. The exception to this, the big exception to all of this rant that I just gave is the S&P 500.
That you can buy incessantly.
You can buy the S&P 500 all day, every day, every month, forever.
And if you do that, you'll probably still do well.
But outside of an index like the S&P 500,
which is an actively managed index,
which removes shitty performers and adds better performers constantly,
an index like that, that self--manages you can do that but outside of the sp500 and the nasdaq you can't do that with
i i mean you can but i don't understand the philosophy of doing that with individual stocks
um i'd rather wait for the market to puke and then buy them. So, yeah, I accumulate stocks after corrections, not in the middle of bull markets.
That's a simplification of everything I just said in one sentence.
I accumulate stocks on the recovery, following a correction, and not at the height of a bull market.
doing a correction and not at the height of a bull market. And most people or many people just
buy and buy and buy and buy all the way up. And then the market cracks. And then they're like,
oh, I don't have any capital left. Learn the lesson. Learn the lesson. You have a limited
amount of capital. No one has unlimited capital, no matter how rich you are. So treat it that way.
Treat the capital as something that you have to protect.
And when you deploy it, be very confident that you're deploying it into something that you think is at the right price.
Because when you start buying stocks at the wrong price, by the wrong price, I mean
extended valuations, extended multiples, you will find out very quickly in the next correction or
the next crash how quickly that can change. And yeah, so I'm not an incremental buyer.
I'm not a DCA-er. I'm not a buy the stock every month kind of guy. I am a wait for real drawdowns, accumulate, and then hold.
That's what I do.
Can I ask you, so this is not questions about your style,
but just where your mindset is at.
Do you think the people that buy the S&P 500 or NASDAQ 100,
if they're doing the DCA and end up doing better?
Or where would you be going maybe is a better way to
answer that. But I know, not your style.
Refresh that? QQQ or
VOO, what works better in the long term?
bias is still to VOO,
but I mean, QQQ has
performed better because
it's tech heavy and we're in a
tech environment. So I mean, I think either of them are fine.
I know you think either of them are
fine. I wanted where
the lean was and you said the S&P 500.
I also have one that I've been
buying into a little bit called QTOP
and it's the NASDAQ Top 30.
So instead of the NASDAQ 100, it's the NASDAQ 30.
What do you think? Dumber or
okay?
I mean, riskier.
What's your initial reaction?
Riskier, I would say.
I mean, definitely riskier, but I feel like we're going to –
I feel like we're into an environment where these large companies over-index
towards what the rest of the market does,
and AI helps beginning to get bigger and chop up a lot of these smaller companies.
That's not a bad philosophy.
That's not a bad philosophy.
Look, I think you're fine.
I think you're fine buying indexes.
Like, indexes, everything I just said has nothing to do with indexes.
Nothing.
Like, if you're going to accumulate major indexes,
especially if they're managed actively and they pull out underperformers and replace them, that's fine.
That has nothing to do with anything I just said.
Everything I just said is about individual stocks only. Individual stocks always have moments where
they crash. Doesn't matter how good or great or amazing or how good the story is or whatever.
It doesn't matter. Individual stocks always have moments where they have a 30, 40,
50% drawdown or more. That is unavoidable. It always happens. It might not happen every year,
but there's always going to be a moment where that happens. And that's when you accumulate them.
If you really want to accumulate them in size, that's when you accumulate them. Not when they're
making new 52-week highs every month and you're just buying more and more and more into new 52-week highs.
Why do that?
I just don't get it.
There's so many stocks on the market.
Look for stocks that are based out, that have been consolidating for months or even preferably for years and are breaking out of those bases.
That's how you make real money.
That's how you make real money. That's how you make like big returns quickly. When you find those stocks that haven't been doing much for a long time,
but now the story is interesting. Now there's a reason for the multiple to expand and you
accumulate them at the right price. And then you sit pretty with a cost basis on Nebius at 23,
just not giving a fuck what happens. You know, like when Nebius fell to the seventies, I didn't
care because I owned it at 23.
I was like, okay, cool.
Maybe it'll come back down to 60.
Maybe it'll come back down to 50.
I mean, I don't know, but I wasn't panicking,
but the people who bought it in the 120s were,
and now look, it's back to whatever, 100, whatever.
And so, yeah, buying at the right price matters
because you're a human operator.
You know, everyone like ends up, you know, justifying it away by saying,
oh, I'm an investor.
It doesn't matter.
Like, okay, I know I bought it at a hot, really high price,
but I'm an investor.
It'll come back.
Like, not necessarily, you know, sometimes you have sectors that,
like right now with photonics or with memory or with any of these hot sectors,
right?
You have multiples that are trading historically high.
Or even if you look at some of these AI enablers, right?
These industrial stocks that have traditionally traded at 10 or 11 or 12 PEs that are now trading at 25 or 30 or 40 PEs, right?
Why are they trading that way?
Because they're industrial names that have been tied to the AI revolution. So their multiples haveEs, right? Why are they trading that way? Because they're industrial names that have been tied to the AI revolution.
So their multiples have expanded, right?
In the next market crash,
do you think they're going to hold 40 PEs?
Be honest with yourself.
And so why accumulate them at those prices?
If you bought them when they were cheap,
like actually cheap, and you watched them 5X were cheap, like actually cheap,
and you watch them five X and held them fantastic.
If you bought them all the way up,
the next market crash is going to teach you a correction,
teach you a lesson.
And so,
yeah,
I just don't operate that way.
And I get a lot of flack for it because people are like,
well,
that's how Warren Buffett operates.
it's not. No, it's how warren buffett operates no it's not no it's not like warren buffett does not buy stocks and then keep buying them all the
way up like neither does druckenmiller neither does neither does lynch neither do any of these
all-time greats like i don't know where these philosophies came from i think they came from
quotes that you know quotes from warren buffettett or quotes from Druckenmiller that people just misconstrued and just extrapolated into strategies.
But I don't know any really successful investors or traders who just incessantly buy stocks during raging bull markets to the upside.
stocks during raging bull markets to the upside. I don't know of anyone like that who's been
successful for a long time, at least on the retail side. So yeah, you just have to respect your money,
respect your capital, respect the deployment of your capital. And, you know, understand that
markets can unwind quickly, multiples can compress quickly for any number of reasons.
You know, I know I saw people this morning who were like,
why are the memory stocks down on that Google news?
And it's like, dude, they weren't even down that much.
Like, you know, but in a market crash or a market correction,
those names and a bunch of other names,
thematically relevant or not, will compress.
Like, go look at April of last year.
Find me some high-flying, momentum-driven names, sexy names that didn't correct in April of last year.
Like, find me a couple.
Maybe you'll find one or two.
But the vast majority, okay, I would say 90% of them corrected with the market in the flash crash in
April, right? That was your opportunity to buy them. If you were, if you were accumulating them
all the way into April, many people had no capital left to buy them at 40 or 50% lower prices in April
or May, because they spent all their capital buying them at 90 PEs going
into the correction. Like, I just don't get it. But, you know, it is what it is. You know, I like
to deploy my capital when the prices are very compelling. And I think a lot of people over time
realize how important cost-based advantages in managing volatility.
You know, if you own everything higher than the current market price, when the market crashes, you pull up your portfolio and everything you own is deep in the red from your cost basis.
It is hard to hold.
It is really hard to hold. On the contrary,
if you buy everything at excellent prices and then ride a three-year bull market and then the market
crashes, there's a high likelihood that everything you own will still be up from where you bought it.
That's a much better position to be in because now you can deploy capital. Now you can size up those positions confidently, you know, during that crash, as opposed to looking at your portfolio
during that crash and going, oh shit, what do I cut? I'm down on everything, you know? So
the last market crash that happened, last big market crash that happened during COVID,
big market crash that happened during COVID, I owned a bunch of stocks during that. But even
in the crash, almost everything I owned was still up on my cost basis. And that gave me an ability
in late 2020 to accumulate more on those names and then ride the bull market. You know? And the same thing goes for the 22 bear market.
A lot of the names I owned
going into that bear market that I held
through 22 were,
yeah, sure, they were up more at the beginning of 22.
But by the end of that year,
they were still up for my cost basis.
What were they?
What did you say?
What were some of those stocks?
Oh, man, I don't remember those years ago i'd have to
go back and look at my portfolio then but i mean weeks ago weeks ago 22 yeah no i'm just messing
oh yeah yeah but yeah i don't remember but yeah i mean in 22 the same thing happened in 2020 the
same thing happened you know in late 2018 when there was a momentum crash, the same thing.
In late 2015, there was a momentum sell-off, same thing.
I mean, I can go back years and years and pretty much every example, the same thing happened.
And the reason for that was because I value buying at the right price and not just blindly accumulating the stock as it goes higher and higher and higher and higher. And as the multiple expands further and further and further,
the higher the multiple is, the more the stocks have gone up in a short period,
the higher your relative risk is during the next correction, period.
And so if you don't value price and you don't value the price at which you're buying at, you will have a really hard time during market volatility because you will just be stressed out wondering, oh my God, I'm down 15% for my cost basis.
How much lower can this go?
Where should I be buying it?
It's just going to ruin your execution because you're a human being.
You're not a computer.
And the retort I always hear to this, I hear this retort all the time is that,
well, stock talk, it doesn't matter. If I'm up 200 grand on a position because I have a good
cost basis and then the market corrects and now I'm only up 100 grand on that position,
I still lost 100 grand versus if I buy a stock and the market corrects and then I'm only up 100 grand on that position, I still lost 100 grand versus if I buy a stock
and the market cracks and then I'm down 100 grand, I'm down 100 grand in both scenarios,
right? Sure, but you're going to manage the ladder much differently. That's the point.
Psychologically, you're going to manage the ladder much differently. There's a reason that
psychology is emphasized so much in markets. You see see a lot of these, like there's a lot of
these guys that go out there and coach people on psychology for trading and investing. And there's
a phenomenal Peter Lynch quote. I think it's Peter Lynch that says that markets are more about
your stomach than your brain. And I completely agree with that. But if you believe that,
if you believe the idea that markets are more about your stomach than your brain,
then you should care about the psychological approach. You should care about the idea of
how am I going to respond to looking at my portfolio? Like when I pull up my portfolio, I want to see green. Okay. Not, not for the
purposes of like making me smile, but because it's easier to manage a position that you're in the
money on. Just, just easier. You have a lot of optionality. You can trim some, you can buy more,
you know, versus a position that you're red on, the management becomes much more difficult because psychologically, that's a much bigger challenge to buy more when you're down X amount on a position.
So I value protecting my psychology in markets, and that allows me to not be stressed out during chop or volatility.
And that allows me to manage my portfolio very well when we get out out during chop or volatility. And that allows me to manage my
portfolio very well when we get out of that chop or volatility. So yeah, markets are an objective
game. It is about the P&L and it is about the numbers, but there are things, there are protocols you can put in place to protect your psychology in those moments.
And if you protect your psychology well enough, it'll grant you flexibility. You'll be lower
stress. You'll be less reactive. You'll be less willing to panic sell positions or panic by them
on the other side. In other words, chase them, all of these things,
the probabilities of you being susceptible to them go way down when you have a good cost basis.
And so cost basis matters.
And a lot of these objective traders
who act like they're computers personified
will say that it doesn't matter
because taking a $100,000 drawdown
is the same thing as taking a $100,000 absolute loss.
And I just don't agree.
I just don't agree at all.
In fact, I couldn't disagree more.
Managing the former is much easier.
And so, yeah, that's how I operate.
But again, you don't have to operate the way I do.
I know many of you out there are DCA people and you think you're Warren Buffett disciples.
You're not.
But many of you think you are.
Sure.
If that works for you, you made money doing it.
Awesome.
But yeah, I don't know.
I get stressed out seeing people do this because I just don't get it.
I just don't get it.
I don't get why people just buy stocks at higher and higher prices or chase, right?
I mean, you know, this photonic stuff and the memory stuff, it's funny to me because
a lot of people had no interest in that stuff eight months ago, and then all the stocks
ripped 300%, and then everyone wants to buy them, you know?
And I'm not saying it's a good or bad idea or photonic stocks are going to go up or down.
I'm not making it's a good or bad idea or photonic stocks are going to go up or down. I'm not making any price predictions here.
What I am saying, though, is that in the long run, that's a losing game.
In the long run, you're not going to super perform versus the markets if you're just buying stuff after it gets hot.
Like all of my biggest plays from last year and from this year and from the year before and from the last decade plus have all been stocks that I bought when they were based out, when no one gave a shit.
Because I saw a thesis there and I saw a potential inflection there.
I saw a potential reason for multiple expansion that the market wasn't yet privy to.
it wasn't yet privy to. I bought a lot and then I waited. That has been every major blockbuster
I bought a lot and then I waited.
winning trade or winning investment that I've had has all come from that exact protocol.
Find a stock that's based out for months or years that has a good story, a reasonable valuation,
a nice chart that is inflecting, and then build a thesis, buy it, rely on the thesis,
check the thesis every quarter, and hold it.
That's like the way to win.
And instead, what you see people do
is just wait for something to get hot.
And then when a sector's hot,
then they scramble to figure out why it's hot.
And then they start buying all the stocks
that are up three or 400%. And then the next market's hot, then they scramble to figure out why it's hot. And then they start buying all the stocks that are up 300% or 400%.
And then the next market correction, they're crying.
Because they bought everything at the highs or the local highs or close to the local highs.
And they watched the stock go down 40%, 50%.
And in fact, many of them buy it all the way down.
And just have a bigger position and a bigger loss at the end of it.
So I'm not into that. You know, as a single stock of it. So I'm not into that. As a single stock
investor and trader, I'm not into that. I'm not an ETF guy. I have no ETF exposure in my portfolio.
I'm all individual stocks. And so for a guy like me, that's just a way to kill yourself.
That's a way to blow up your portfolio. And I don't want to blow up your portfolio. And, you know, I don't want to blow my portfolio.
So yeah.
Value cost basis.
I value buying at the right times.
I don't buy on the way up or rarely do I buy on the way up.
I buy during corrections.
So yeah.
How much?
okay.
Well,
you don't have to,
I don't know.
Okay.
How much of the net worth is in the portfolio versus like the other
stuff they have other investments i know we've talked about real estate probably like 90 of my
net worth is my portfolio okay maybe a little bit under that i mean i haven't done the exact math
but i mean i have real estate i feel like sort of diversification is always good, but you get it through different ways. Yeah, guys, it's in it.
No, never mind.
I wasn't going to make a joke.
It's in the bank.
Yeah.
Why don't you, so you're just a physical, like GLD,
do you own any of the GLD, or do you ever like,
have you ever had gold really exposure in your portfolio?
I feel like since the longest time we have talked, not really.
I mean, I have gold exposure.
I own physical gold, but I don't have gold exposure in my stock
portfolio, no.
You ever think you get into
a gold miner or something at the right point?
No. I've traded gold miners
in the past. No, no, no.
I'll just buy more physical gold if I want more
physical. If I want more gold exposure, I'll buy
more gold bars. That's it.
I'm not going to buy
GLD. But to, I'm not going to buy like GLD.
But yeah,
I own physical gold,
I own real estate,
and I own stocks,
and that's pretty much it.
I think you're also kind of,
you know,
we enjoy the commodities here,
the uranium,
the other type of place.
There's some opportunities,
obviously that's in the stock form,
but I do,
you know,
I picture you finding some more names in that area.
Is there anything going on in the rare earths, in the logistics, in the whole side of it? That's, the stock for him but i do i you know i picture you you finding some more names in that area is
there anything going on in the rare earths in the logistics and the whole side of it that's
been in more interesting directions recently i mean that's rare earths and logistics are two
very different different categories talking about like uh panel the kind of that kind of form of
form of no i don't i i sold that a while ago but that's like the vibes i was more going for
oh i don't i i sold that a while ago but that's like the vibes i was more going for
no that makes sense no that doesn't make sense at all actually the question made no sense um
yeah i don't know how to answer that okay what pangie logistics was doing or pangia was doing
i don't own that anymore i know but what okay Okay. Any rare earths
planned for you? I was thinking copper
has been an interesting one that's fallen off a little bit.
That's not a rare earth.
Alright, this guy sucks.
I mean, I'm just
I'm not trying to shoot your questions down, but that's not a rare earth.
But no, I'm not
into rare earths right now, no.
Buy the rare earth trade earlier in the year
and it burned me.
And I was like, fuck that.
I got out of it.
It's just too hard to draw a fundamental conclusion
about the rare earth stocks
because they're all speculative.
Most of them are pre-revenue.
Most of them you're just trying to value
a potentially commercializable asset
and um most of them are not going to be commercialized to like 28 2030 um and so you
it's just a very speculative game uh that's the issue with rare earths at least for me
and on the flip side there are you know obviously there are some revenue generating rare earth stocks, but those are not trading at reasonable valuations at all. So
in a market like this, where we have a ton of uncertainty, we've had a three-year
rip raging bull market. A lot of stocks are extended valuations in my view.
Like when I flip through names that a lot of people are extended valuations in my view like when i flip through names that a lot of people
are talking about on twitter and i see them trading at like 30 40 50 60 times sales i'm just
like i like laugh i'm like i'm not buying that at there's no way you know like i don't care if it
goes a hundred percent higher i'm just not buying those names. So I try to be disciplined in environments like this.
Like for me to buy something in an environment like this,
I needed to check all the boxes.
I needed to have a really nice chart
that looks like it's bottoming out
or looks like it's consolidating really well
over a long period.
It has a reasonable valuation,
you know, maybe like a sub 25 forward
with growing top line,
you know, good management team.
Like I know like this and now there's not a lot of stocks like that. There's not a lot of stocks
that are reasonably priced right now. In fact, I think there's very few. I could probably, I'd probably say there's maybe a hundred stocks in sexy categories,
like in interesting categories, maybe a hundred stocks that are reasonably priced.
Maybe, maybe that might even be an overshoot.
All of the commonly talked about names are priced ridiculously.
And so I'm not going to buy them.
I mean, on the next market crash, I might, but not here.
So yeah, I don't know.
I'm more than happy with what I own right now.
Most of the stocks in my portfolio, I actually think are not unreasonably priced.
And so I'm comfortable holding what I own.
But that being said, there are a couple of stocks in my portfolio too, that I think are
pretty expensive. You know, there's not, not, not that many, I would say out of the 16 positions I
have, I would say probably, I think two or three are, are overpriced. And the only reason I'm holding them is, again,
because I have a deep cost-based advantage.
And when they do correct, inevitably, I'll buy more.
So I would say out of the 16 positions, I have 13, I think,
are probably still reasonably priced even after they've gone up quite a bit.
And so I'm very, very comfortable holding them,
especially when I look at the broader market
and I say everything's overpriced
because I frankly, I think since last November,
once I made the portfolio pivot in last November
into Amcor and VIAV and ENS,
once I made that pivot,
the reason I made that pivot
was because I was looking at the field and saying,
this is ridiculous. Everything is overpriced. That's why I made that pivot to those names
in November of last year. And I still feel that way. I still feel that there's a lot of froth
in terms of valuation all over the place. It can last if market conditions are good enough, but it's sort of coming to call now since November
because of all this uncertainty that's arisen in the market.
So, yeah, that's kind of how I feel.
All right.
We don't need to stay here three hours later on the market
that we talked about how it's a good one to uh you know go outside we got we'll be going back to the gyms
yeah i'm going to costco first but um yeah i'll be doing you know i remember a distinct
statement from stock talk he was like how often do i need to go to stock to costco
so i guess like the once a month trip yeah Yeah. I got to go load up some protein shakes, all that stuff.
Snacks.
Do you have like a go-to protein shake or just what's there?
I just get the Core Power Elites, ones that have 42 grams of protein in them.
Nice.
I mean, they're great macros.
230 calories, 42 grams of protein.
You drink a couple of those a day.
You're chilling.
So I like those a lot.
Get some cheese sticks, some high-protein snacks,
some chicken broth, beef broth, things like that.
Try to be healthy.
Health is wealth.
It's so funny how ironic it is that you see all these traders like talking about 70% win rate posting all their cars and their ladies around all their pictures flashing luxury
and a regular dude 500% last year 50% this year talking about buying protein shakes at Costco
chilling cooking some food at home fucking average life like it's
just it's so funny how it's like people i mean i do some nice things i just don't flex them you
know like i have a nice car i don't post it on uh on twitter i have nice things i don't flex them
on twitter i what i what i've gotten my my i don't want to say fame, but what I've gotten my virality from
and the attention from
is my ideas and my performance, right?
And that's where I think it should come from.
Not from me flexing watches
or, you know, floor seats
or cars or whatever.
I could flex those things,
but I've never needed to you know my my uh
account has grown on the back of my ideas and my performance and my commentary and i prefer it that
way you know i don't think there's a single picture of any of my cars or watches or anything
on twitter ever um there's a reason for that. Because I don't want people to follow me
because they see wealth.
I want people to follow me
because they're like,
oh, his ideas are good.
He thinks the right way about markets.
His performance is good.
So yeah, the only thing I'll ever flex on my page
is performance
because I think that's all that matters.
So what kind of card do you drive?
I have a couple. I don't want to talk about it on twitter because i want people to find me in dallas evans giving enough information about where i live how much gold i have
i mean you did just move i did all all the last two years of work and i was throwing them off
the trail saying new mexico and you told them it was real the problem is is people get my live stream last time i had like four people dm'd
me my apartment building name and i was like okay oh shoot
what are you gonna work out in the gym today and then we'll end the space chest nice
I saw a video of you from a couple years ago
it was looking a little chunkier than you are now
yeah oh yeah definitely
I'm way better shaped than I was a couple years ago
definitely
do you track your workouts
like your progression
in the weights that you're using
I try to
yeah
I was going to say do you like these types of analysis on how many plates you doing the weights that you're using? I try to. Yeah. Okay.
I was going to say,
do you like the technical analysis on how many plates you're doing?
Do you like to look at the technical analysis
and how much weight you're doing
at the chest press or something,
a bench press?
Yeah, definitely.
I like how my streak is bouncing off
that 9 EMA right there.
Definitely.
All right.
Go enjoy your Costco trip.
I appreciate you all.
We'll talk a little later.
Talk tomorrow.
Have a great one, team.
Peace.
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